SportsRatings: College Football

SportsRatings Top 25 - week 1: Boise State takes the top spot

Welcome to the SportsRatings College Football Top 25 for the week ending September 6, 2010. This is a subjective ranking, not a computer power rating. It does attempt to use several rules some of which include honoring head-to-head results whenever possible, and giving more consideration to teams with wins over other top 25 teams.

Week one wasn't terribly eventful as there were only two intra-top 25 contests, but for an opening week it was a lot more fun than we've seen in the last few years. The big change comes at the top: Boise State takes over the #1 spot from TCU. There are a few reasons for this: 1) They were basically neck-and-neck to start with in our Pre-season Top 120 preview; 2) TCU's win over Oregon State was impressive but probably didn't demonstrate that they are the very best team in college football, and 3) Boise State has an important win over a highly-ranked foe. Boise State plays Oregon State in a few weeks, another comparison that will be taken into consideration.

Virginia Tech fell to #11. They almost won the game, but it's hard to keep a team who has lost (essentially at home) in the top 10 this early.

The rankings, even the top positions, may be very fluid over the next several weeks until a pecking order is sorted out. Oklahoma's scare against Utah State causes the Sooners to fall a notch, while Oregon's 72-0 bombing of New Mexico jumps them a couple of spots to #5. Arkansas and Alabama hold their positions.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week one 2010 (thru 9/6/2010)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
2	1	Boise St	1-0	[email protected]
1	2	TCU	1-0
3	3	Arkansas	1-0
4	4	Alabama	1-0
7	5	Oregon	1-0
5	6	Oklahoma	1-0
9	7	Ohio State	1-0
8	8	Florida	1-0
10	9	Nebraska	1-0
12	10	Miami FL	1-0
6	11	Virginia Tech	0-1	L Boise33-30
14	12	Wisconsin	1-0
11	13	Texas Tech	1-0
15	14	Auburn	1-0
17	15	Georgia Tech	1-0
16	16	Texas	1-0
18	17	Florida St	1-0
19	18	Stanford	1-0
20	19	South Carolina	1-0
22	20	LSU	1-0	w=UNC30-24
21	21	Clemson	1-0
23	22	Texas A&M	1-0
--	23	BYU	1-0	wWash23-17
--	24	Utah	1-0	wPitt27-24OT
13	25	North Carolina	0-1	L=LSU30-24
		out
24	--	Washington	0-1	[email protected]
25	--	Pittsburgh	0-1	[email protected]

At #7 Ohio State jumps over Florida, who had trouble with their own hands on offense and struggled with Miami of Ohio who was 1-11 last season. Nebraska and Miami move up to round out the top ten with the Hokies right behind. Ohio State and Miami play this weekend in what is now another intra-top 10 battle.

Wisconsin rises two positions to #14 while Texas Tech drops a few; the Red Raiders allowed SMU to get back into a game they had been dominating. Auburn follows and Georgia Tech jumps Texas who had trouble getting on track against lowly Rice. At #17-19 we see Florida State, Stanford, and South Carolina all up a spot. The Seminoles travel to #6 Oklahoma on Saturday.

LSU moves up a couple of spots after beating former #13 North Carolina 30-24. The Tigers were less than impressive in dispatching the wounded Tar Heels. As for UNC themselves, it's unclear what team they will be fielding in the weeks to come, but the one that played on Thursday wasn't half bad and could still be top 25-worthy, thus they hang on until further developments occur.

Clemson and Texas A&M are #21 and #22 right before the Mountain West invasion. We'd foreseen both BYU and Utah as considerably weaker this season but so far that hasn't been the case. BYU knocked off #24 Washington 23-17 while Utah upset #25 Pittsburgh in overtime, 27-24. Those two teams exit while BYU and Utah enter at #23 and #24, followed by North Carolina.

Next weekend has some great games with #4 Alabama taking on Penn State and #19 South Carolina against Georgia in addition to the Oklahoma-FSU and Ohio State-Miami games mentioned before.

SportsRatings Final Top 25 for 2009 Season: Alabama #1, Boise State #2

Alabama is #1 and the SportsRatings 2009 National Champion; that one is obvious. The Crimson Tide beat 1-loss Texas and Florida, plus Virginia Tech, LSU, and Mississippi, and a total of 10 bowl teams. But who should be #2, #3, and #4? Between Texas, Florida, and Boise State, three teams can stake a claim.

Let's start with Texas. You can argue that they came closer to beating Alabama—and without their absolute key player—than Florida did, and put them #2. But one look at their weak résumé—no top 25 wins—and put them #6, if not lower. I split the difference, noting that they beat 8 bowl-eligible teams even if Oklahoma State and Nebraska are the only borderline top 25 teams they defeated.

For the #2 spot I took Boise State. Florida wasn't close in the game against Alabama, and looking at just  top 25 wins Boise State has just as good an argument—beating 1-loss TCU, 3-loss Oregon—as well as having no losses. It isn't their fault they play in a weak conference. Florida is a strong #3 with a dominant win over 1-loss Cincinnati. TCU and Cincinnati both lost one game, and TCU kept it closer as well as having better wins than the Bearcats; they follow at #5 and #6.

Then comes the invasion of the Big Ten. Three teams, all 11-2, make the top ten this year. At #7 is Ohio State, who has four top 25 wins (2nd only to Alabama); only the bad loss to Purdue keeps them perhaps out of the top five. Next comes Iowa, who finished 11-2 and lost to Ohio State on the road in overtime. Both teams easily handled Penn State, so there is an appropriate one-slot gap to where the Nittany Lions stand at #10. In-between, 11-2 BYU finishes at #9, the second top ten team for the Mountain West.

Five 3-loss teams place between #11 and #15. The first is Oregon, who beat Utah and USC, and lost to two top ten teams. Two ACC teams are next, with Georgia Tech ahead of Virginia Tech, whom they beat during the season. Utah is next; they had no top 25 wins but lost only to teams in the top 11. Then, moving up five slots after beating Miami, is Wisconsin, the 4th Big Ten team in the top 15.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Final rankings for 2009 season (1-08-2010)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Wins over top 25 teams; all losses
1	1	Alabama	13-0	wins: =Fla32-13,=Tex37-21,=VTech34-24,LSU24-15,@Miss22-3  Losses: none
4	2	Boise State	14-0	wins: TCU17-10,Oregon19-8  Losses: none
6	3	Florida	13-1	wins: =Cincy51-24,@LSU13-3,Troy56-6  Losses: =Alabama32-13
2	4	Texas	13-1	wins: @OKst41-14  Losses: =Alabama37-21
3	5	TCU	12-1	wins: @BYU38-7,Utah55-28  Losses: =BoiseSt17-10
5	6	Cincinnati	12-1	wins: WVa24-21,Pitt45-44  L=FLA51-24
8	7	Ohio State	11-2	wins: @PennSt24-7,Iowa27-24ot,Wisc31-13,=Oregon26-17  Losses:@Pur26-18,USC18-15
9	8	Iowa	11-2	wins: @PennSt21-10,@Wisc20-10,=GTech24-14  Losses:NWest17-10,@OSU27-24ot
10	9	BYU	11-2	wins: Utah26-23ot  Losses:FSU54-28,TCU38-7
12	10	Penn State	11-2	wins: =LSU19-17,Temple31-6  Losses:Iowa 21-10,OSU24-7
7	11	Oregon	10-3	wins: Utah31-24,USC47-20  Losses:@Stan51-42,@Boise19-8,=OhioSt26-17
11	12	Georgia Tech	11-3	wins: VT28-23  Losses:GA30-24,@Miami33-16,=Iowa24-14
13	13	Virginia Tech	10-3	wins: Miami31-7  Losses:UNC20-17,@GT28-23,=Ala34-24
15	14	Utah	10-3	wins: none  Losses:@TCU55-28,@Oregon31-24,@BYU26-23ot
20	15	Wisconsin	10-3	wins: @Miami20-14  Losses:@Nwest33-31,Iowa20-10,@OSU31-13
18	16	C. Michigan	12-2	wins: @Troy44-41ot  Losses:@BC31-10,@Arizona19-6
22	17	Pittsburgh	10-3	wins: none  Losses:@NCst38-31,@Wva19-16,@Cincy45-44
16	18	Miami	9-4	wins: GT33-16  Losses:Clem40-37ot,@UNC33-24,@VT31-7,Wis20-14
--	19	USC	9-4	wins: @OSU18-15  Losses:@Wash16-13,Az21-17,Stan55-21,@Ore47-20
--	20	Mississippi	9-4	wins: LSU25-23,OKst21-7  Losses:@MissSt41-27,@SCar16-10,@Aub33-20,Ala22-3
14	21	LSU	9-4	wins: none  Losses:@Miss25-23,FLA13-3,@Ala24-15,=PennSt19-17
17	22	West Virginia	9-4	wins: Pitt19-16  Losses:@Aub41-30,@USF30-19,@FSU33-21,@Cincy24-21
23	23	Troy	9-4	wins: MTenn31-6  Losses:@BGr31-14,@Ark56-20,@Fla56-6,CMich44-41ot
25	24	M. Tennessee	10-3	wins: none  Losses: @MissSt27-6,@Clemson37-14,@Troy31-6
19	25	Houston	10-4	wins: @OKst45-35  Losses: @UTEP58-41,@ECU38-32,UCF37-32,=AirF47-20

Others receiving consideration: Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Nebraska, Rutgers, Temple, Navy, Clemson

Central Michigan is at #16 and Pittsburgh at #17. The Chippewas beat Troy and lost just twice; Pitt has no top 25 wins and a bad loss to N.C. State, but beat North Carolina to move up five slots.

Almost every single 4-loss team in the nation lost during the bowl season, leaving very few new entries into the top 25. Miami's loss to Wisconsin drops them a couple of spots to #16. Next come two teams who each have a bad loss, but USC's win over Ohio State puts them ahead of Mississippi as the Trojans and Rebels re-enter at #19 and #20. LSU barely lost to Mississippi and played tight games with three top ten teams, overcoming their lack to top 25 wins.

West Virginia lost to Florida State in the Gator Bowl but their win over Pitt keeps them in the rankings. Likewise, Troy remains in for their clear win over Middle Tennessee. The Trojans hold at #23 as they lost a double overtime game to #16 Central Michigan, while the Blue Raiders move up one spot for finishing 10-3 and winning their bowl game. This gives the Sun Belt two top 25 teams, one more than the Big 12!

The last spot was up for grabs among several 4-loss teams, but Houston deserved it by their win over Oklahoma State, and it conveniently gives Conference USA a representative. They also beat Texas Tech, another team vying for the spot. The Cougars fell six spots, however, after losing big to Air Force. Here are the rest of the teams that were in contention, and why they didn't make it:

• Oklahoma State (9-4) - beat Texas Tech, but lost to Houston
• Texas Tech (9-4) - beat Nebraska 31-10, but lost to Oklahoma State, Houston
• Nebraska (10-4) - really deserved it at the end, but no top 25 wins, and lost big to Texas Tech
• Rutgers (9-4) - no top 25 wins, bad loss to Syracuse
• Temple (9-4) - beat Navy, but no top 25 wins and fell to I-AA champ Villanova
• Navy (10-4) - lost to Temple
• Clemson (9-5) - five losses (2 to Georgia Tech), and beat 2 top 25 teams; bad loss to 2-10 Maryland

Other 4-loss teams that lost their bowl games, and therefore their shot at the top 25 were: East Carolina, Northwestern, Stanford, Arizona, Oregon State, California, North Carolina, Boston College, Central Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, and Fresno State. Of these, East Carolina and Central Florida would have been ahead of Houston for sure, Northwestern and North Carolina beat two top 25 teams each and would have been in, and any of the Pac-10 teams could have made it with a win, too.

By conference

Here are the teams that ended in the SportsRatings Top 25 by Conference:

• SEC (4): #1 Alabama, #3 Florida, #20 Mississippi, #21 LSU
• Big Ten (4): #7 Ohio State, #8 Iowa, #10 Penn State, #15 Wisconsin
• Mountain West (3): #5 TCU, #9 BYU, #14 Utah
• Big East (3): #6 Cincinnati, #17 Pittsburgh, #22 West Virginia
• ACC (3): #12 Georgia Tech, #13 Virginia Tech, #18 Miami
• Pac-10 (2): #11 Oregon, #19 USC
• Sun Belt (2): #23 Troy, #24 Middle Tennessee State
• WAC (1): #2 Boise State
• Big 12 (1): #4 Texas
• MAC (1): #16 Central Michigan
• C-USA (1): #25 Houston

SportsRatings subjective top 25 - week 14/15: Cincy, McCoy dodge bullets

Well, it almost happened. By "it" I mean the normal process whereby undefeated teams find an unexpected loss late in the season, and the national championship picture is complicated. Another point here or there and TCU would be playing Alabama, which would be a lot more fun.

Instead, it will be Texas and Alabama, no thanks to Colt McCoy, who almost made the most monumental blunder in the history of college football with his casual pass landing out of bounds with barely 1 second left. Cincinnati came back and beat Pitt, too, leaving five undefeated teams a lá 2004. Alabama and Texas are playing the USC/Oklahoma roles, with TCU subbing for Utah, Boise State for...Boise State, and Cincinnati is Auburn from that year, the other BCS conference team left out of the equation.

Alabama indisputably deserves to be #1 even if they might not be the best team. They have the only win over a 1-loss team, and a convincing one at that. The ordering of the next five teams is debatable, but none have an undeniably greater résumé than the others, so Texas remains #2, TCU moves up to #3, followed by Boise State and Cincinnati, which essentially matches how well the teams rank in a margin-of-victory based power rating.

In terms of accomplishments? Depending on how you consider strength of schedule, Boise State has had a tougher one than Texas, with their win over Oregon being the key. And Cincinnati in just 12 games has done more than either of those two has in 13. But it's close. TCU's schedule is by far the weakest, in fact Florida at 12-1 ranks ahead of TCU in the Success ratings. But the Horned Frogs have good wins over Utah and BYU, and have won all their games convincingly. So I see no reason to put Florida higher than #6, and leave them with the bowl game to have a chance to move up potentially as high as #2.

The rest of the top ten remained the same, even down to #12. The biggest change was that I kicked out all the Pac-10 teams now that there's a glut of five of them at 8-4. Again, let the bowl games sort that mess out.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week 14 (thru 12/05/2009)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
3	1	Alabama	13-0	w=Fla32-13,=VTech34-24,LSU24-15
2	2	Texas	13-0	[email protected]
4	3	TCU	12-0	[email protected],Utah55-28
5	4	Boise St	13-0	wOregon19-8
6	5	Cincinnati	12-0	wWVa24-21,Pitt45-44,@OreSt28-18
1	6	Florida	12-1	L=Alabama32-13;[email protected],Troy56-6
7	7	Oregon	10-2	[email protected],@Boise19-8;wUtah31-24,USC47-20,Cal42-3,OreSt37-33
8	8	Ohio State	10-2	[email protected],USC18-15;[email protected],Iowa27-24ot,Wisc31-13
9	9	Iowa	10-2	L NWest17-10,@OSU27-24ot;[email protected],@Wisc20-10
10	10	BYU	10-2	L FSU54-28,TCU38-7;wUtah26-23ot
11	11	Georgia Tech	11-2	L GA30-24,@Miami33-16;wVT28-23
12	12	Penn State	10-2	L Iowa 21-10,OSU24-7;wTemple31-6
17	13	Virginia Tech	9-3	L UNC20-17,@GT28-23,=Ala34-24;wMia31-7
18	14	LSU	9-3	[email protected],FLA13-3,@Alabama24-15
19	15	Utah	9-3	[email protected],@Oregon31-24,@BYU26-23ot
21	16	Miami	9-3	L Clem40-37ot,@UNC33-24,@VT31-7;wGT33-16
22	17	West Virginia	9-3	[email protected],@USF30-19,@Cincy24-21;wPitt19-16
23	18	C. Michigan	11-2	[email protected],@Arizona19-6;wOhio20-10
14	19	Houston	10-3	[email protected],@ECar38-32,UCF37-32;[email protected]
--	20	Wisconsin	9-3	[email protected],Iowa20-10,@OSU31-13
24	21	Oklahoma St	9-3	L OK27-0,Houston45-35,Tex41-14
13	22	Pittsburgh	9-3	[email protected],@Wva19-16,@Cincy45-44
--	23	Troy	9-3	[email protected],@Ark56-20,@Florida56-6;wMTenn31-6
--	24	Temple	9-3	L Villanova27-24,@Ohio35-17,@PennSt31-6
--	25	M. Tennessee	9-3	[email protected],@Troy31-6,@Clemson37-14
		out:
15	--	USC	8-4	[email protected],Az21-17,Stan55-21,@Ore47-20;[email protected],OreSt42-36,@Cal30-3
16	--	Oregon St.	8-4	L Ariz37-32,@USC42-36,Cincy28-18,@Ore37-33;[email protected]
20	--	California	8-4	[email protected],OreSt31-14,USC30-3,@Oregon42-3
25	--	Ohio U.	9-4	L Kent20-11,UConn23-16,@Tenn34-23,@CMich20-10;wTemple35-17

Pittsburgh's loss to Cincinnati didn't make them look bad, but it did leave them with no top 25 wins, which made them overrated at #13. They fall to #22. Houston didn't fall as far because they still have the win over Oklahoma State legitimizing them. Five idle teams slide up to fill the gap left by these teams and the Pac-10 crew, and Central Michigan finishes at 11-2 and at #18.

I swept the Pac-10 out of the list and included every team with three or fewer losses. Some will lose bowl games and be kicked out in short order, and the more impressive 4-loss teams will re-enter. Between USC, Oregon State, California, Arizona, and Stanford, the Pac-10 has five potential top 25 teams (other than Oregon). If judged by head-to-head comparison with the other four, the pecking order right now is: Arizona (3-1), USC (2-2, beat Oregon State, Cal), Oregon State (2-2, beat Cal), California (2-2), Stanford (1-3).

Wisconsin demolished Hawaii and finished with a résumé comparable to Oklahoma State's, putting them at #20. The other three teams that entered are fairly marginal and will have to win their bowl games to tread water.

There's actually one more regular season game to be played, but neither Army nor Navy will affect the rankings, though the Midshipmen have a shot at the top 25 if they finish 10-4. RIght now there are 19 teams with 4 losses, so making sense of that isn't on my radar. Bring on the bowl games!
 

SportsRatings subjective top 25 - week 13: The zeroes vs. the twos

The remarkable things about how the college football season are ending up are how dominant a half-dozen teams are this year in terms of record, while being completely pedestrian in terms of big wins. The six undefeated teams are now truly separate from the rest of the pack in an unprecedented way: there are *no* 1-loss teams! At the same time (and partly because there are no 1-loss teams), few if any of the undefeated teams have any truly impressive wins.

#1 Florida's sole top 25 win is over 3-loss LSU (#18) by 10 points. #2 Texas has even less to brag about for their win over #24 Oklahoma State, though it was a blowout. Now that Mississippi lost, even #3 Alabama has two wins over 3-loss teams. Non-BCS-conference teams TCU and Boise State have the best wins of the season so far, the Horned Frogs having dominated #10 BYU and #19 Utah, while the Broncos bested #7 Oregon; all three were home games, however, and Boise's win was in the first week of the season. #6 Cincinnati has narrow wins over #16 Oregon State and #23 West Virginia to show for its 11-0 record.

This ignores Florida's and Cincinnati's wins over unranked 3-loss teams, and wins over quality 4- and 5-loss teams, of course, but the pattern is there. Games that looked to provide signature wins (Texas vs. Oklahoma, Cincy vs. Illinois, Alabama vs. Mississippi) didn't end up that way, while those who looked to have an easy year (TCU, Boise State) won their key games and had few other challenges. Meanwhile Florida, though strong, failed to live up to the hype and was challenged often despite facing few elite teams.

Some of this will change next week. After Florida faces Alabama, there will finally be a team that deserves to be #1. Cincinnati tries for another top 25 win against Pitt, and Boise State and Texas will attempt to go a remarkable 13-0. But we'll have to wait for the bowl games before we have the amount of interplay between the top six teams that most years have during the regular season.

So next week we'll have a solid #1, and the loser will fall depending on how close the game is. Meanwhile the Oregon-Oregon State game will help rank Cincy vs. Boise State. So the top six teams, which have been almost in this same relative order all season, will finally get a shakeup.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week 13 (thru 11/28/2009)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Florida	12-0	[email protected]
2	2	Texas	12-0	[email protected]
3	3	Alabama	12-0	w=VTech34-24,LSU24-15,@Miss22-3
4	4	TCU	12-0	[email protected],Utah55-28
5	5	Boise St	12-0	wOregon19-8
6	6	Cincinnati	11-0	[email protected],WVa24-21
8	7	Oregon	9-2	[email protected],@Boise19-8;wUSC47-20,Utah31-24,Cal42-3
10	8	Ohio State	10-2	[email protected],USC18-15;[email protected],Iowa27-24ot
12	9	Iowa	10-2	L NWest17-10,@OSU27-24ot;[email protected]
13	10	BYU	10-2	L FSU54-28,TCU38-7;wUtah26-23ot
7	11	Georgia Tech	10-2	L GA30-24,@Miami33-16;wVT28-23,UNC24-7
14	12	Penn State	10-2	L Iowa 21-10,OSU24-7;wTemple31-6
9	13	Pittsburgh	9-2	[email protected],@Wva19-16
15	14	Houston	10-2	[email protected],UCF37-32;[email protected]
17	15	USC	8-3	[email protected],Stan55-21,@Ore47-20;[email protected],OreSt42-36,@Cal30-3
22	16	Oregon St.	8-3	L Ariz37-32,@USC42-36,Cincy28-18;[email protected]
19	17	Virginia Tech	9-3	L UNC20-17,@GT28-23,=Ala34-24;wMia31-7
21	18	LSU	9-3	[email protected],FLA13-3,@Alabama24-15
11	19	Utah	9-3	[email protected],@Oregon31-24,@BYU26-23ot
23	20	California	8-3	L OreSt31-14,USC30-3,@Oregon42-3
--	21	Miami	9-3	L Clem40-37ot,@UNC33-24,@VT31-7;wGT33-16
--	22	West Virginia	8-3	[email protected],@USF30-19,@Cincy24-21;wPitt19-16
24	23	C. Michigan	10-2	[email protected],@Arizona19-6
16	24	Oklahoma St	9-3	L OK27-0,Houston45-35,Tex41-14
--	25	Ohio U.	9-3	L Kent20-11,UConn23-16,@Tenn34-23;wTemp35-17
		out:
18	--	N. Carolina	8-4	[email protected],Va16-3,FSU30-27,@GT24-7;[email protected],Mia33-24
20	--	Mississippi	8-4	[email protected],@SCar16-10,@Aub33-20,Bama22-3;wLSU25-23
25	--	Temple	9-3	L Villanova27-24,@Ohio35-17,@PennSt31-6

#7 Oregon is in position to go to the Rose Bowl, and if so they'll face #8 Ohio State in a pretty solid matchup of top 10 teams, though currently the Ducks' résumé—particularly comparing USC games—outclasses the Buckeyes, who are in the top ten despite a bad loss against Purdue. OSU's narrow win over #9 Iowa props them up. The Hawkeyes' résumé is basically equal to that of #10 BYU, who beat Utah in overtime last weekend but were blown out twice this year.

Georgia Tech was beaten by rival Georgia in one of this week's many easily foreseeable upsets (Oklahoma State's loss is another examples). Still favored for a BCS bowl berth, the Yellow Jackets fall to #11 as the North Carolina win loses some luster, too.

#13 Pittsburgh could have fallen much further, as they have no wins over top 25 teams, but they lost a very close game to a good team, and their résumé could get a big boost next week if they beat Cincinnati and Rutgers beats West Virginia. Right now, though, their early loss to NC State puts them behind Penn State, another team without a strong win. And while Houston dominated last week, ahead 59-0 at one point, they were facing 2-9 Rice, while their close win over Oklahoma State lost value as the Sooners shut out the Cowboys 27-0. The loss to 3-9 UTEP still weighs on them, too.

USC, who I have trashed and ranked relatively low all year, now deserves to be the top 3-loss team even as they are out of favor in the national polls. They have three top 25 wins, tied with Oregon for most in the country. Oregon State is also re-evaluated upward despite not playing: four teams ahead of them lose, and they jump #17 Virginia Tech and #18 LSU with an important rivalry game looming. LSU won in overtime last week while #19 Utah lost in overtime; LSU's résumé is technically slightly weaker than Utah's, but the Tigers' overall schedule is much tougher and they played two top teams very close, contrasted with Utah's loss against TCU. #20 Cal also has three losses to ranked teams and no big wins, but all three losses were blowouts.

Due to several teams losing and falling out, Miami re-enters the top 25 even though their résumé was much stronger last week: opponents Clemson, North Carolina, and Georgia Tech were all upset victims last weekend. Still, their vitae is equal to that of West Virginia, who re-enters after beating Pitt. Providing a useful tiebreaker among the two teams is South Florida, who beat the Mountaineers 30-19 but whom Miami beat last week 31-10. Central Michigan is the lowest of the 2-loss teams, losing to the best teams they played this year in games that weren't close. But they have 10 wins on the year and they'll face #25 Ohio, who upended Temple last week, for the MAC crown and the right to stay in the top 25.

Oklahoma State was crushed by Oklahoma last week in a game that was a mismatch despite the teams records. The Sooners are really one of the best teams in the nation, with four narrow losses on the season. The Cowboys meanwhile have feasted on poor competition and lost to every good team they've faced. Still, they have nine wins and deserve a (low) spot in the top 25, but it would have been a crime if they'd received a BCS bowl slot.

As mentioned earlier North Carolina and Mississippi suffered their fourth loss each and fall out. UNC has two top 25 wins and could have remained in, but their two losses to losing teams are hard to ignore. Temple's winning streak came to an end with their brief foray into the top 25.

Though there are now several 4-loss teams that could be listed in the rankings (mainly in the Pac 10, ACC, and SEC), I probably won't rank any until the season is over. There are still several deserving 3-loss teams trying to get in. Last week Clemson, Navy, USF, and Nevada lost, leaving the 3-loss landscape looking like this:

1. Wisconsin  8-3   [email protected],Iowa20-10,@OSU31-13
2. Nebraska   9-3   L IowaSt9-7,Ttech31-10,@Vtech16-15
3. Rutgers    8-3   [email protected],Cincy47-15,Pitt24-17
4. Temple     9-3   L Villanova27-24,@Ohio35-17,@PennSt31-6
5. Troy       9-3   [email protected],@Ark56-20,@Florida56-6;wMTenn31-6
6. M. Tenn.   9-3   [email protected],@Troy31-6,@Clemson37-14

Nebraska has a simple path to being ranked: beat Texas. Likewise, Rutgers can replace West Virginia with a win. Wisconsin, though they have the best résumé (i.e., the least embarrassing set of losses) among the 3-loss wannabees, isn't guaranteed a spot next week if they beat Hawaii, but if Nebraska loses the Badgers will be in. The other three teams have completed their seasons and will have to win their bowl games.

SportsRatings subjective top 25 - week 12: No surprises, more clarity

With all the top teams facing cupcakes unseen since week two, not much happened in the top 25. And overall, things are starting to solidify into a pecking order based on big wins and losses.

I'm still waiting for the bomb to go off. The top teams have gone too long with no bullets hitting. When does the crazy stuff start happening, like in 2007 or 2001, when the projected BCS title game opponent was changing every minute? Or are we really going to have another 2004, with five undefeated teams going into the bowl games?

The next few weeks could shake things up. Florida State, Auburn, and Nebraska aren't consistenly great teams, but they've had their moments and weaker opponents have upset undefeated teams before. Pitt or even Illinois could upset Cincinnati; Nevada could beat Boise. Only TCU, with just one game left against woeful New Mexico, looks to be in the free and clear. Everyone else has two games left, and at least one challenge among them.

It's also stunning how weak the résumés of the top teams are. Boise State's win over Oregon is the best win among the six teams. Alabama has three strong wins, all over opponents with 3 losses. #1 Florida and #2 Texas have one decent win each. TCU has two, and Cincinnati now only has one. The Florida-Alabama winner will have by far the biggest win of this season.

Only two teams have one loss; Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh. The latter loses their biggest win (Rutgers falls out of the top 25), so Oregon moves up to #8 with three big wins and a fourth (Arizona) that they knock out this week. The difference between remaining in the top 10 and joining the pack of Pac-10 teams near the bottom was a very fine line, but a win is a win.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week twelve (thru 11/21/2009)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Florida	11-0	[email protected]
2	2	Texas	11-0	[email protected]
3	3	Alabama	11-0	[email protected],=VTech34-24,LSU24-15
4	4	TCU	11-0	[email protected],Utah55-28
5	5	Boise St	11-0	wOregon19-8
6	6	Cincinnati	10-0	[email protected],@Rut47-15
7	7	Georgia Tech	10-1	[email protected];wVT28-23,UNC24-7
9	8	Oregon	9-2	[email protected],@Boise19-8;wUSC47-20,Utah31-24,Cal42-3,@Az44-41ot
8	9	Pittsburgh	9-1	[email protected];[email protected]
11	10	Ohio State	10-2	[email protected],USC18-15;[email protected],Iowa27-24ot
14	11	Utah	9-2	[email protected],@TCU55-28
17	12	Iowa	10-2	L NWest17-10,@OSU27-24ot;[email protected],Az27-17
13	13	BYU	9-2	L FSU54-28,TCU38-7
20	14	Penn State	10-2	L Iowa 21-10,OSU24-7;wTemple31-6
15	15	Houston	9-2	[email protected],UCF37-32;[email protected]
16	16	Oklahoma St	9-2	L Houston45-35,Tex41-14
21	17	USC	7-3	[email protected],Stan55-21,@Ore47-20;[email protected],OreSt42-36,@Cal30-3
18	18	N. Carolina	8-3	L Va16-3,FSU30-27,@GT24-7;[email protected]
19	19	Virginia Tech	8-3	L UNC20-17,@GT28-23,=Ala34-24
--	20	Mississippi	8-3	[email protected],@Aub33-20,Bama22-3;wLSU25-23
10	21	LSU	8-3	[email protected],FLA13-3,@Alabama24-15
23	22	Oregon St.	8-3	L Ariz37-32,@USC42-36,Cincy28-18;[email protected],Stan38-28
25	23	California	8-3	L OreSt31-14,USC30-3,@Oregon42-3;wAriz24-16,@Stan34-28
--	24	C. Michigan	9-2	[email protected],@Arizona19-6
--	25	Temple	9-2	L Villanova27-24,@PennSt31-6
		out:
12	--	Rutgers	7-3	[email protected],Cincy47-15,Pitt24-17
22	--	Arizona	6-4	[email protected],@Iowa 27-17,@Cal24-16;wOreSt37-32,Stan43-38
24	--	Stanford	7-4	[email protected],@Ariz43-38,@OreSt38-28,Cal34-28;wOre51-42,[email protected]

Ohio State moves into the top 10; close behind them is Iowa, who barely lost on the road to OSU and clearly has a better résumé than BYU. But with Arizona's loss they still belong behind Utah for now; Utah and BYU have a showdown coming up to determine which team belongs this high. Houston and their only solid victim Oklahoma State follow at #15 and #16, with Houston's loss to UTEP looking worse each week. Penn State jumped both of them due to the Lions' lack of embarrassing losses, a good win over Michigan State, and gaining a strong win (Temple? yep). Both the Cougars and Cowboys have tough games coming up (East Carolina/Southern Miss; Oklahoma) that they very well could lose, as neither is a very strong top 25 team. But they've won games, and that's what counts.

USC was off this week but rose four spots based on what happened in the Pac-10; namely, teams they beat (Oregon State and Cal) won and stayed in the top 25, giving them three wins over top 25 teams and putting them ahead of the rest of the pack, with the Beavers at #22 and Golden Bears at #23.

LSU's loss dropped them a long way, as they have no solid wins to cushion their fall. Mississippi re-entered at #20, just ahead of the Tigers who really  should have won the game. Their relationship is similar to North Carolina and Virginia Tech; in that case the team on top had a narrow win over the team one spot below, each with three losses. Arguable Ole Miss and LSU could be ahead of the Tar Heels and Hokies but it's very close. The bowl games will probably have to sort that out.

With three teams dropping out, two more spots are open and both 2-loss teams are let in: Central Michigan and Temple, who are on a collision course for the MAC title...so only one will remain before the bowl season. Neither résumé is strong, but the Chippawas did beat Michigan State, while Temple defeated Navy. Temple also lost to Villanova, which is embarrassing, but the Wildcats are probably the best team in the FCS. At 10-1 you could argue I should have them in my top 25 instead, but I'm sticking to FBS teams only.

Arizona and Stanford falls out due to having four losses; there just isn't room for every Pac-10 team. And Rutgers fell to Syracuse, which should be enough reason for anyone. There are now 12 3-loss teams outside of the top 25. A few of them really deserve to be in, and there are some definite pecking orders among the rest. Here's how I see it, ignoring 4-loss teams in order to be uncomplicated:

1. Clemson    8-3   [email protected],TCU14-10,@GTech30-27;wMia40-37ot,MTenn37-14
2. Miami      8-3   L Clem40-37ot,@VT31-7,@UNC33-24;wGT33-16
3. Navy       8-3   L Temple27-24,@Pitt27-14,@OhioSt31-27
4. Wisconsin  8-3   [email protected],Iowa20-10,@OSU31-13
5. Rutgers    7-3   [email protected],Cincy47-15,Pitt24-17;wUSF31-0
6. USF        7-3   L Rut31-0,@Pitt41-14,Cincy34-17;wWVa30-19
7. West VA    7-3   [email protected],@USF30-19,@Cincy24-21
8. Nebraska   8-3   L IowaSt9-7,Ttech31-10,@Vtech16-15
9. Troy       8-3   [email protected],@Ark56-20,@Florida56-6;wMTenn31-6
10. M. Tenn.   8-3   [email protected],@Troy31-6,@Clemson37-14
11. Nevada     8-3   [email protected],@NotreDame35-0,Mizzou31-21
12. Ohio U.    8-3   L Kent20-11,UConn23-16,@Tenn34-23

Clemson and Miami probably deserve to be in, as the Canes have the only win over Georgia Tech and Clemson beat Miami. They're next in line. Navy hasn't lost to a non-top 25 team and could finish the regular season 10-3. Wisconsin would have made it this week if they had taken care of Northwestern; they play Hawaii next and will need a bowl game win now.

Rutgers is next only because they beat South Florida soundly, and the Bulls beat West Virginia. The Mountaineers play Pitt next week and USF faces Miami. Nebraska is in the mix somewhere among the Big East teams; of course beating Texas would give them priority over everyone.

The last four teams are long shots to get in before the bowl season (or maybe even after). There are quite a few 4-loss teams that are really in line in front of these teams. Troy is clearly ahead of Middle Tennessee, whom they beat. Nevada has an opportunity against Boise State that would vault them in despite a weak résumé; and Ohio needs to beat Temple, which would pit them against Central Michigan for the MAC title. Win both of those, and the Bobcats would have earned a spot.

SportsRatings subjective top 25 - week 11

Once again: presented without commentary!

SportsRatings Top 25 - week eleven (thru 11/15/2009)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Florida	10-0	[email protected]
2	2	Texas	10-0	[email protected]
3	3	Alabama	10-0	w=VTech34-24,LSU24-15
4	4	TCU	10-0	[email protected],Utah55-28
5	5	Boise St	10-0	wOregon19-8
6	6	Cincinnati	10-0	[email protected],@OreSt28-18,@USF34-17
7	7	Georgia Tech	9-1	[email protected];wVT28-23,UNC24-7
9	8	Pittsburgh	9-1	[email protected];[email protected],USF41-14
11	9	Oregon	8-2	[email protected],@Boise19-8;wUSC47-20,Utah31-24
13	10	LSU	8-2	L FLA13-3,@Alabama24-15
21	11	Ohio State	9-2	[email protected],USC18-15;[email protected],Iowa27-24ot
18	12	Rutgers	7-2	L Cincy47-15,Pitt24-17;[email protected]
15	13	BYU	8-2	L FSU54-28,TCU38-7
14	14	Utah	8-2	[email protected],@TCU55-28
10	15	Houston	8-2	[email protected],UCF37-32;[email protected]
16	16	Oklahoma St	8-2	L Houston45-35,Tex41-14
8	17	Iowa	9-2	L NWest17-10,OSU27-24ot;[email protected],Az27-17
22	18	N. Carolina	7-3	L Va16-3,FSU30-27,@GT24-7;[email protected],wMia33-24
23	19	Virginia Tech	7-3	L UNC20-17,@GT28-23,=Ala34-24;wMia31-7
24	20	Penn State	9-2	L Iowa 21-10,OSU24-7
19	21	USC	7-3	[email protected],@Ore47-20,Stan55-21;[email protected],OreSt42-36,@Cal30-3
20	22	Arizona	6-3	[email protected],@Iowa 27-17,@Cal24-16;wOreSt37-32,Stan43-38
25	23	Oregon St.	7-3	L Cincy28-18,Ariz37-32,@USC42-36;wStan38-28,[email protected]
--	24	Stanford	7-3	[email protected],@OreSt38-28,@Ariz43-38;wOre51-42,[email protected]
--	25	California	7-3	L OreSt31-14,@Oregon42-3,USC30-3;wAriz24-16
		out:
12	--	Miami	7-3	L Clem40-37ot,@VT31-7,@UNC33-24;wGT33-16
17	--	South Florida	6-3	L Cincy34-17,@Pitt41-14,Rut31-0

Except perhaps that there are SIX pac-10 teams this week, with 5 bunched together at the bottom. Some will fall out soon as there is a bit of interplay left.

SportsRatings subjective Top 25 - week 10

Special this week: presented without commentary!

SportsRatings Top 25 - week ten (thru 11/7/2009)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Florida	9-0	[email protected]
2	2	Texas	9-0	[email protected],=OK16-13
3	3	Alabama	9-0	w=VTech34-24,LSU24-15
6	4	TCU	9-0	[email protected]
5	5	Boise St	9-0	wOregon19-8
7	6	Cincinnati	9-0	[email protected],@Rut47-15,@OreSt28-18
8	7	Georgia Tech	8-1	[email protected];wVT28-23,UNC24-7
4	8	Iowa	9-1	L NWest17-10;[email protected],Az27-17
13	9	Pittsburgh	8-1	[email protected];wUSF41-14,@Rut24-17
12	10	Houston	7-1	[email protected];[email protected]
9	11	Oregon	7-2	[email protected],@Boise19-8;wUSC47-20,Utah31-24,Cal42-3
14	12	Miami	7-2	L Clem40-37ot,@VT31-7;wGT33-16,OK21-20
10	13	LSU	7-2	L FLA13-3,@Alabama24-15
15	14	Utah	8-1	[email protected]
16	15	BYU	7-2	L FSU54-28,TCU38-7;w=OK14-13
17	16	Oklahoma St	7-2	L Houston45-35,Tex41-14
18	17	South Florida	6-2	L Cincy34-17,@Pitt41-14
19	18	Rutgers	6-2	L Cincy47-15,Pitt24-17
20	19	USC	7-2	[email protected],@Ore47-20;[email protected],OreSt42-36,@Cal30-3
21	20	Arizona	6-2	[email protected],@Iowa 27-17;wOreSt37-32
	21	Ohio State	8-2	[email protected],USC18-15;[email protected]
22	22	N. Carolina	6-3	L Va16-3,FSU30-27,@GT24-7;[email protected]
23	23	Virginia Tech	6-3	L UNC20-17,@GT28-23,=Ala34-24;wMia31-7
11	24	Penn State	8-2	L Iowa 21-10,OSU24-7
	25	Oregon St.	6-3	L Cincy28-18,Ariz37-32,@USC42-36;[email protected]
		out:
25	--	California	6-3	L OreSt31-14,@Oregon42-3,USC30-3
24	--	Oklahoma	5-4	[email protected],=BYU14-13,@Mia21-20,=Tx16-13

That's all till next week!

SportsRatings subjective top 25 - week 9: Boise State ahead of Oregon, undeniably

Time to shake things up in the top seven? Not quite yet, even with Iowa's struggles. But beyond that I've moved things around a bit, dropping some teams that didn't lose.

#1 Florida looked good and #2 Texas looked great. #3 Alabama didn't play and #4 Iowa looked terrible—until the fourth quarter. The Hawks are still arguably the most accomplished team this year; if they fall from #1 in the Success power rating I might consider moving them down amongst all the undefeated teams. #5 Boise State, #6 TCU, and #7 Cincinnati all beat patsies, but beat them well. The Broncos, if you haven't forgetton—and it seems some people have—beat Oregon earlier this year.

Oregon now has three big wins vs. a loss to an undefeated team, really the best 1-loss résumé in the country, and I've moved them up to #9 just behind fellow 1-loss team Georgia Tech. To do this I needed to bump a few teams down. #12 Houston was an easy choice, as they eeked out another win, and I decided to move Penn State a few spots down due to lack of accomplishment. LSU remains in the top ten and will have to prove it or lose it against Alabama this week.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week nine (thru 10/31/2009)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Florida	8-0	[email protected]
2	2	Texas	8-0	[email protected],=OK16-13
3	3	Alabama	8-0	w=VTech34-24
4	4	Iowa	9-0	[email protected],Az27-17
5	5	Boise St	8-0	wOregon19-8
6	6	TCU	8-0	[email protected]
7	7	Cincinnati	8-0	[email protected],@Rut47-15
8	8	Georgia Tech	8-1	[email protected];wVT28-23,UNC24-7
12	9	Oregon	7-1	[email protected];wUSC47-20,Utah31-24,Cal42-3
10	10	LSU	7-1	L FLA13-3
9	11	Penn State	8-1	L Iowa 21-10
11	12	Houston	6-1	[email protected];[email protected]
16	13	Pittsburgh	7-1	[email protected];wUSF41-14,@Rut24-17
17	14	Miami	6-2	L Clem40-37ot,@VT31-7;wGT33-16,OK21-20
18	15	Utah	6-1	[email protected]
19	16	BYU	6-2	L FSU54-28,TCU38-7;w=OK14-13
13	17	Oklahoma St	6-2	L Houston45-35,Texas41-14
22	18	South Florida	6-2	L Cincy34-17,@Pitt41-14;wWVa30-19
23	19	Rutgers	6-2	L Cincy47-15,Pitt24-17
14	20	USC	6-2	[email protected],@Oregon47-20;[email protected]
24	21	Arizona	5-2	[email protected],@Iowa 27-17;wCMich19-6
--	22	N. Carolina	5-3	L Va16-3,FSU30-27,@GT24-7;[email protected]
15	23	Virginia Tech	5-3	L UNC20-17,@GT28-23,=Ala34-24;wMia31-7
25	24	Oklahoma	5-3	L=BYU14-13,@Mia21-20,=Tx16-13
--	25	California	6-2	[email protected],USC30-3
		out:
20	--	C Michigan	7-2	[email protected],@Arizona19-6
21	--	West Virginia	6-2	[email protected],@USF30-19

#13 Pitt has a similar résumé to Houston, while Miami, Utah, and BYU all have their good and bad points, not strong enough to be in the top ten but with better arguments for being ranked high than the teams below them.

Oklahoma State , South Florida, and Rutgers have parallel résumés: A loss to an undefeated team and a top-13 team, and no big wins. USF and Rutgers are almost exactly the same, save that the Bulls are coming off a solid win against West Virginia. The two teams face off on November 12th.

#20 USC took a beating last weekend and now they look strikingly like #21 Arizona: A three-point loss at Washington, and a loss to a top 10 team. USC beat Cal, a borderline top 25 team, while the Wildcats beat Central Michigan, who falls out this week after a bad loss to Boston College.

Virginia Tech lost to North Carolina, and the Tar Heels enter one spot ahead of them; like Oklahoma the Hokies have three losses to top 25 teams but also hold a win over Miami, while the Sooners lost to the 'Canes. 

The last spot goes to Cal, who hasn't beaten anyone but has only lost to good teams. Those were pretty huge losses, though, keeping them at #25. The teams that fall out—Central Michigan and West Virginia—weren't much worse off, but they each had a loss to an unranked team. The Mountaineers have an easy path back in: beat Cincinnati in two weeks. As for the Chippewas, they might have win out to get back in.

The remaining unranked 2-loss teams and their chances for being ranked are:

• Ohio State: losses to USC and Purdue; plays Penn State this weekend, a win gets them in
• Notre Dame: losses to Michigan and USC; could be in next week, certainly if they beat Pitt in 2 weeks.
• Wisconsin: losses to Iowa and Ohio State; easy schedule left, needs to keep winning
• Troy: losses to Bowling Green and Florida; could sneak in if they beat Arkansas in two weeks
• Temple: losses to Villanova and Penn State; probably has to win the MAC to be ranked
• Idaho: losses to Washington and Nevada; weak résumé, but faces Boise State in two weeks(!)

The first three teams will be in soon if they keep winning, while the latter three will take 2nd chair to the better 3-loss teams, due to their very poor losses and overall weak schedules.

SportsRatings subjective top 25 - week 8: Close calls, but no change

This week it was #3 Alabama's turn to look vulnerable, and #2 Texas' week to appear dominant. That, coupled with #1 Florida's ineptitude against Mississippi State, #4 Iowa's last second heroics, and #6 TCU's destruction of BYU...changed nothing.

Close calls come and go, and in the end they're forgotten. The teams that can win move on, the teams that lose get hurt. Otherwise, why keep a W and L column in the first place? Ultimately those are the numbers that count, not 12-9 (Alabama over Tennessee) or 15-13 (Iowa over Michigan State). So the top seven teams remain the same. All have good résumés: no losses and at least one important win.

They won't move, either, until one team separates itself from the pack. Iowa and #7 Cincinnati have two important wins each, but Cincy's are both over borderline top 25 teams, and Arizona is borderline, too. #5 Boise State probably won't add anything to their résumé, so they'd better root for Oregon to keep winning.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week eight (thru 10/24/2009)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Florida	7-0	[email protected]
2	2	Texas	7-0	w=OK16-13,TTech34-24
3	3	Alabama	8-0	w=VTech34-24
4	4	Iowa	8-0	[email protected],Az27-17
5	5	Boise St	7-0	wOregon19-8
6	6	TCU	7-0	[email protected]
7	7	Cincinnati	7-0	[email protected],@Rut47-15
12	8	Georgia Tech	7-1	[email protected];wVT28-23
9	9	Penn State	7-1	L Iowa 21-10
10	10	LSU	6-1	L FLA13-3
11	11	Houston	6-1	[email protected];[email protected],TTech29-28
16	12	Oregon	6-1	[email protected];wUtah31-24
13	13	Oklahoma St	6-1	L Houston 45-35
15	14	USC	6-1	[email protected]ash16-13
17	15	Virginia Tech	5-2	[email protected],=Ala34-24;wMia31-7
20	16	Pittsburgh	7-1	[email protected];wUSF41-14,@Rut24-17
8	17	Miami	5-2	L Clem40-37ot,@VT31-7;wGT33-16,OK21-20
19	18	Utah	6-1	[email protected]
14	19	BYU	5-2	L FSU54-28,TCU38-7;w=OK14-13
21	20	C Michigan	7-1	[email protected]
23	21	West Virginia	6-1	[email protected]
18	22	South Florida	5-2	L Cincy34-17,@Pitt41-14
--	23	Rutgers	5-2	L Cincy47-15,Pitt24-17
--	24	Arizona	5-2	[email protected],@Iowa 27-17;w CMich19-6
--	25	Oklahoma	4-3	L=BYU14-13,@Mia21-20,=Tx16-13;[email protected]
		out:
24	--	Kansas	5-2	[email protected],OK35-13
22	--	Texas Tech	5-3	L A&M52-30,@Tex34-24,@Hou29-28
25	--	Idaho	6-2	[email protected],@Nevada70-45

Both #9 Penn State and #10 LSU looked like top ten teams on Saturday and held their spots. Georgia Tech jumped over them since they have a solid win and at this point top ten teams should have that. LSU plays Alabama in a few weeks and Penn State has only Ohio State left on their schedule, so they have less upward potential.

Houston holds after winning again, but is limited by their UTEP loss and with Texas Tech losing one of their big wins is going away. They beat Oklahoma State, which keeps them aloft, especially if the Cowboys can beat Texas next weekend.

#14 USC is in the top five in the national polls, which they don't deserve at all based on what they've done. In fact, there's no good argument for having them ahead of Oregon at this point. The Ducks have lost only to an undefeated team and have a win over Utah, while the Trojans lost to 3-5 Washington (whom Oregon just beat 43-19). Regardless, the pecking order will be resolved when the Ducks host USC next week. If Oregon wins they'll have the best résumé of any 1-loss team

Virginia Tech is the top-rated 2-loss team due to their excusable losses and their win over Miami, who falls from #8 to #17 for their overtime loss to Clemson. Among the remaining 1-loss teams, Pitt rises to #16, Utah moves up a spot after struggling to beat Air Force in overtime, Central Michigan continues to beat MAC opponents and is #20, and West Virginia edged UConn and moves up to #21. 

BYU hangs on at #19, and South Florida falls to #22. Of all the remaining 2-loss teams, only Rutgers and Cal's losses are to top 25 teams. Rutgers' résumé is almost exactly like USF's so they re-enter at #23. Cal's losses were such extreme blowouts that I don't include them. Instead, Pac-10 brethren Arizona, who holds a win over Central Michigan, comes back at #24, and Oklahoma, a 35-13 winner at Kansas, returns at 4-3.

Kansas falls out of the top 25 for the first time this season, while Texas Tech suffers their third loss and drops out a week after re-entering. And Idaho's 1-week run at #25 ends with a big loss to Nevada. They're near the bottom of the list among 2-loss teams due to their easy schedule, but if they beat Boise in a few weeks they'll probably make the AP poll.

SportsRatings subjective Top 25 week 7 - Idaho Vandals make the list

At the mid-point of the season, I'm ranking all the current undefeated teams #1 through #7. To get to their point in the year without a loss is an accomplishment and there are no 1-loss teams that deserve to be ahead of them at this point.

The usual top three—Florida, Texas, and Alabama—can be put in any order. Florida's win over Arkansas was shaky, but they have the only win over a 1-loss team of the trio. Texas barely beat Oklahoma, but since when is that a crime? And Alabama may be the nation's darling, jumping to #1 in the AP poll, but it's hard to argue there's any space between them and the other two teams. It will all come out in the wash over time.

Three of the other four undefeated teams also have a good win on their slate: #4 Iowa over Penn State, #5 Boise State over Oregon, and #7 Cincinnati beat South Florida on Thursday and jumped from #20 last week. Only #6 TCU is in need of a signature win, and they play BYU next week.

Most of the 1-loss teams can be arguably put in just about any order, too; there just isn't enough interplay between the top teams yet. Miami and Penn State remain #8 and #9, while LSU moves up to #10. Of these only the Hurricanes have an important win.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week seven (thru 10/17/2009)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Florida	6-0	[email protected]
2	2	Texas	6-0	wTTech34-24
3	3	Alabama	7-0	w=VTech34-24,SCar20-6
4	4	Iowa	7-0	[email protected] 21-10
5	5	Boise St	6-0	wOregon19-8
6	6	TCU	6-0
20	7	Cincinnati	6-0	[email protected],@Rutgers47-15
8	8	Miami	5-1	[email protected];wGT33-16
9	9	Penn State	6-1	L Iowa 21-10
11	10	LSU	5-1	L FLA13-3
12	11	Houston	5-1	[email protected];[email protected],TTech29-28
23	12	Georgia Tech	6-1	[email protected];wVT28-23
13	13	Oklahoma St	5-1	L Houston 45-35
14	14	BYU	5-1	L FSU54-28
16	15	USC	5-1	[email protected];[email protected]
19	16	Oregon	5-1	[email protected];wUtah31-24
7	17	Virginia Tech	5-2	[email protected],=Ala34-24;wMia31-7,wNeb16-15
10	18	South Florida	5-1	L Cincy34-17
24	19	Utah	5-1	[email protected]
--	20	Pittsburgh	6-1	[email protected];wRutgers24-17
22	21	C Michigan	6-1	[email protected]
--	22	Texas Tech	5-2	[email protected],@Hou29-28;[email protected]
--	23	West Virginia	5-1	[email protected]
15	24	Kansas	5-1	[email protected]
--	25	Idaho	6-1	[email protected]
		out:
17	--	S. Carolina	5-2	[email protected] 41-37,@Ala20-6
18	--	Ohio State	5-2	[email protected],USC18-15
21	--	Nebraska	4-2	L TTech31-10,@VT16-15
25	--	Rutgers	4-2	L Cincy47-15,Pitt24-17

Enigmatic Houston moves up a spot to #11. Since their loss to UTEP they've picked up where they left off and have two big wins, the only team in the rankings to beat two other current top 25 members. Georgia Tech's defeat of Virginia Tech propels them up to #12, and Oklahoma State and BYU hold steady for the umpteenth week.The former is stuck behind Houston, while the latter's once-strong résumé is now meager.

USC beat Notre Dame yet again, another game that tells me they're overrated on any poll that puts them in the top five. They have a loss to Washington and their win over Ohio State was sullied this week. Until they face Oregon—#16 this week—I see no reason to put them in the top ten.

Virginia Tech is the only 2-loss team that didn't fall out this week; their losses are to top teams and they have a key win over Miami. They also beat Nebraska, making their résumé very similar to the other 2-loss team in the rankings, Texas Tech. The #22 Red Raiders, too, lost to a top-three team and an almost-top ten team, while beating the Cornhuskers.

South Florida fell to #18 after losing to Cincinnati, while Kansas just held on at #24 after losing to Colorado, a game they nearly won at the last second. Neither team has a big win, but only one loss. In fact, all of the 1-loss teams are now represented in the rankings: Utah slides up to #19; Pittsburgh enters at #20 after beating Rutgers; Central Michigan finally moves up a spot at 6-1 (and is finally getting some votes in the national polls); West Virginia enters at #23 (ahead of Kansas because the Mountaineers beat Colorado previously); and finally at #25, Idaho. Yes, Idaho!

The Vandals were one of the worst teams in the country last year, and figured to be the same if not worse this year. I had them as a possible 0-12 this year. Instead Idaho has been winning game after game, losing only to Washington—which puts them in company with USC.

Idaho isn't really one of the best 25 teams; they rank in the middle of the pack (currently #69) in the Strength power rating week to week, and their six wins have come over a cupcake schedule for sure: 3-4 New Mexico State, 2-4 San Diego State, 3-3 Northern Illinois, 3-4 Colorado State, 1-5 San Jose State, and 2-4 Hawaii. Not a winning team in the bunch, nor a BCS-conference win. Most of those wins have been close, too. But they're having one of the great turnarounds in college football history, are already bowl-eligible, and for a team I placed at #120 pre-season they deserve the recognition. They don't face a winning team until Boise State, and if they win that they'd better be in all the polls! Realistically they'll have a tough time beating Nevada and Louisiana Tech, and will almost certainly lose to Fresno State in addition to Boise. But as long as they keep winning they're on my list...just don't look for them to make any huge leaps.

Most of the teams with two losses fell out this week; South Carolina has no big wins and Ohio State lost to Purdue. And while Nebraska and Rutgers have only lost to good teams, they also have no offsetting strong wins to argue for continued inclusion in the rankings, for now.

SportsRatings subjective Top 25 week 6 - little change

This weekend was relatively uneventful in terms of top-25-changing events. #1 Florida and #3 Alabama both won big games, and I saw no reason to reshuffle anything relative to #2 Texas. The latter hasn't been put to the test yet but they will over their next three games. If they fail, they'll fall.

This year's top three matters less than any in recent memory, since two of them are on a collision course. Texas hardly need worry about its fall from #2 to #3 in the AP poll.

Iowa beat Michigan 30-28 to remain #4, joining Alabama as the only 6-0 teams in the country. Boise State idled at #5; they face Tulsa next week which should give a good comparison between they and Oklahoma, who beat the Golden Hurricane 45-0.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week six (thru 10/10/2009)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Florida	5-0	[email protected]
2	2	Texas	5-0
3	3	Alabama	6-0	w=VTech34-24,[email protected]
4	4	Iowa	6-0	[email protected] 21-10,Arizona 27-17
5	5	Boise St	5-0	wOregon19-8
6	6	TCU	5-0
7	7	Virginia Tech	5-1	L=Ala34-24;wMia31-7,Neb16-15
8	8	Miami	4-1	[email protected];wGT33-16
9	9	Penn State	5-1	L Iowa 21-10
11	10	South Florida	5-0
10	11	LSU	5-1	L FLA13-3
12	12	Houston	4-1	[email protected];[email protected]
13	13	Oklahoma St	4-1	L Houston 45-35
14	14	BYU	4-1	L FSU 54-28
16	15	Kansas	5-0
18	16	USC	4-1	[email protected];[email protected] 18-15
17	17	S. Carolina	5-1	[email protected];wMiss16-10
20	18	Ohio State	5-1	L USC18-15
21	19	Oregon	5-1	[email protected];wUtah31-24
24	20	Cincinnati	5-0	[email protected]
--	21	Nebraska	4-1	[email protected];[email protected]
22	22	C Michigan	5-1	[email protected]
23	23	Georgia Tech	5-1	[email protected] 33-16
--	24	Utah	4-1	[email protected]
--	25	Rutgers	4-1	L Cincy47-15
		out:
19	--	Mississippi	3-2	[email protected],Alabama22-3
15	--	Arizona	3-2	[email protected],@IA27-17;wCM19-6
25t	--	Missouri	4-1	L Neb27-12
25t	--	Auburn	5-1	[email protected]

TCU, Virginia Tech, Miami, and Penn State remained in order from #6 to #9 while USF moved up a notch, replacing LSU who fell only one spot to #11 after losing to Florida 10-3.

Houston rebounded with their third win over a BCS conference foe, holding steady at #12 which is where they'll remain for a while if they keep winning. Oklahoma State and BYU also hold steady at #13 and #14, with BYU's résumé consisting only of a loss to a 2-4 team. They'll be hoping for an Oklahoma victory this week.

Kansas barely dodged the upset bug and moves up a notch to #15 at 5-0. USC jumps South Carolina to land at #15; the Trojans' résumé is now better than the Gamecocks' after Ole Miss fell from the ranks. USC victim Ohio State handed Wisconsin their first defeat and they also jump 2 slots.

Oregon and Cincinnati both gained an impressive win, though not from this weekend, as Utah and Rutgers enter the rankings; hence the Ducks and Bearkats jump to #19 and #20. Nebraska earns their way in at #21 by beating previously-undefeated Missouri, one of four teams to fall out this week. Mississippi's loss to Alabama was their second, with no big wins to back it up. Arizona lost a crazy game to unranked Washington. And Auburn's first loss was to 3-3 Tennessee.

Central Michigan and Georgia Tech remained steady at #22 and #23.

This is the first weekend where every undefeated team is in the top 25, and currently all but a handful of 1-loss team are ranked (eight to be exact). Among them, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Missouri, Tulsa, and Notre Dame all play top 25 opponents this coming weekend: #25 Rutgers, #4 Iowa, #13 Oklahoma State, #5 Boise State, and #16 USC. Along with the USF-Cincinnati game, Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Tech, and Alabama-South Carolina, there could be a big shakeup next week.

SportsRatings subjective Top 25 week 5: Houston's loss mucks things up

Another week, another screwy top 25. Nothing much happened at the top, as the #1 and #2 teams were safe from losing by being idle. #3 Alabama is gaining in people's minds as the real #1 and while they have the best résumé so far, it ain't over until they play Florida. Unless Tebow is out the rest of the year, I'll still take the Gators. Meanwhile Texas' offense is the best in the country, even with a sub-par Colt McCoy thus far.

Iowa played their worst opponent of the year and, naturally, played down to them at home and nearly gave the game away. Boise State faced a division I-AA team and had a lackluster performance. But why knock these teams, who have some of the best quality wins of any team? TCU rounds out the "teams nobody thought would be rated this high, this early" list at #6. Then Virginia Tech and the Miami team they beat lead Penn State as the best 1-loss teams while LSU rounds out the top 10.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week five (thru 10/3/2009)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Florida	4-0
2	2	Texas	4-0
3	3	Alabama	5-0	w=VTech34-24
4	4	Iowa	5-0	[email protected],Arizona27-17
5	5	Boise St	5-0	wOregon19-8
7	6	TCU	4-0
8	7	Virginia Tech	4-1	L=Alabama34-24;w Miami31-7
12	8	Miami	3-1	[email protected];wGT33-16,OK21-20
9	9	Penn State	4-1	L Iowa21-10
15	10	LSU	5-0	[email protected]
11	11	South Florida	5-0
6	12	Houston	3-1	[email protected];[email protected]
10	13	Oklahoma St	3-1	L Houston 45-35;w GA 24-10
13	14	BYU	3-1	L FSU 54-28;[email protected] 14-13
17	15	Arizona	3-1	[email protected] 27-17;w CMich19-6
18	16	Kansas	4-0
20	17	South Carolina	4-1	[email protected] 41-37;w Miss 16-10
23	18	Southern Cal	4-1	[email protected];[email protected]
21	19	Mississippi	3-1	[email protected] 16-10
24	20	Ohio State	4-1	L USC18-15
25t	21	Oregon	4-1	[email protected]
22	22	C Michigan	4-1	[email protected]
25t	23	Georgia Tech	4-1	[email protected] 33-16
--	24	Cincinnati	5-0
--	25t	Auburn	5-0
--	25t	Missouri	4-0
		out:
16	--	Michigan	4-1	[email protected]
14	--	Oklahoma	2-2	L BYU 14-13,@Miami21-20
19	--	Georgia	3-2	[email protected],LSU20-13;   wSC41-37

USF remains #11. The Bulls play Cincinnati next week so they'll either jump a whole lot in the other polls, or Cincinnati will jump a lot here.

Houston complicated matters by losing to UTEP. Their defense was finally exposed—it's amazing Oklahoma State or Texas Tech didn't score 50 on them—and they tumbled from the national polls. Here I keep them ahead of the Cowboys, but have to push both of them down a few extra notches because, wow, the Cougar defense looked horrendous. It doesn't help that Georgia lost, depriving OK State of some bragging rights. BYU slides one, too, as Oklahoma no longer makes the list.

Arizona and Kansas were both off last week and float up a few spots, just because.

#17 South Carolina beat #19 Mississippi, while #18 USC beat #20 Ohio State.  The Trojans and Buckeyes moved up more, though, since they both played very well last week. The résumés of the pair of teams are nearly identical. Oregon, Central Michigan, and Georgia Tech all have an excusable loss on their slate, and the Ducks are playing the best so they move ahead a bit.

Three undefeated teams join the top 25 for the first time this year. Cincinnati—a top ten team in the other polls—hasn't really played anyone but they've been impressive; beat USF next week and I'll have them near the top ten. Auburn is another 5-0 team with no big wins but they'll have many chances later to prove their worth. They're tied at #25 with Missouri, who faces Nebraska next week for the Cornhuskers' chance to get in the rankings. That leaves Wisconsin as the only unranked undefeated team; the Badgers play Ohio State next week and will replace them if they win.

Oklahoma falls out of the top 25 after starting at #3. They've lost to two top 25 teams, each by a point, and both times with Sam Bradford gone for most/all of the game. If he returns healthy I expect them to be back. Michigan lost to Michigan State; every other top 25 team with a loss to a non-top 25 team has an offsetting impressive win to keep them in, so the Wolverines are out for now. Beat Iowa next week and they'll be right back in. Georgia has their 2nd loss, both to good teams. With a win over South Carolina under their belts they won't stay out long if they take care of business, too.

SportsRatings Subjective Top 25 - week 4: Top Three, Then What?

The mantra from the AP pollsters this week was clear: who in the hell are we going to put #4? We had the same problem here at SportsRatings.

#1 Florida, #2 Texas, and #3 Alabama are a clear consensus. After that, it's hard to find a team that deserves to be in the top ten; the teams either have a loss or struggled so much on Saturday that they nearly have one. Or, they were Boise State, whom the rules state cannot be ranked very high, it seems. The AP found their own solution; here is ours. SportsRatings had some jockeying to do, too, on such an odd week.

Iowa took the #4 spot after beating Penn State soundly in Happy Valley. The Hawkeyes launched back into to AP poll for this win, but since they were #8 here last week they zoom up four spots. They're the only team that has two top 25 wins (since Arizona is in our rankings). Boise State's win over Oregon is back to looking impressive again all of a sudden and they round out the top five.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week four (thru 9/26/2009)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Florida	4-0
2	2	Texas	4-0	w TTech34-24
3	3	Alabama	4-0	w=VTech34-24
8	4	Iowa	4-0	[email protected] 21-10,Arizona 27-17
7	5	Boise St	4-0	wOregon19-8
12	6	Houston	3-0	[email protected] 45-35,TTech29-28
11	7	TCU	3-0
--	8	Virginia Tech	3-1	L=Alabama34-24;wMiami31-7
6	9	Penn State	3-1	L Iowa 21-10
17	10	Oklahoma St	3-1	L Houston 45-35;wGA 24-10
--	11	South Florida	4-0	[email protected] 17-7
9	12	Miami	2-1	[email protected];wGT33-16,@FSU 38-34
15	13	BYU	3-1	L FSU 54-28;[email protected] 14-13
16	14	Oklahoma	2-1	L BYU 14-13
18	15	LSU	4-0	[email protected]
19	16	Michigan	4-0
20	17	Arizona	3-1	[email protected] 27-17;wCMich19-6
21	18	Kansas	4-0
--	19	Georgia	3-1	[email protected] 24-10;wSCaro41-37
--	20	S. Carolina	3-1	[email protected] 41-37;wMiss 16-10
4	21	Mississippi	2-1	[email protected] 16-10
22	22	C Michigan	3-1	[email protected]
24	23	Southern Cal	3-1	[email protected] 16-13;[email protected]
25	24	Ohio State	3-1	L USC18-15
--	25t	Oregon	3-1	[email protected];wCal42-3
--	25t	Georgia Tech	3-1	[email protected] 33-16;wUNC 24-7
		out:
5	--	California	3-1	[email protected]
10	--	N. Carolina	3-1	[email protected] 24-7
14	--	Florida St	2-2	L Mia38-34,USF17-7;[email protected]
13	--	Texas Tech	2-2	[email protected],@Hou29-28
23	--	Washington	2-2	L@Stan34-14,LSU31-23;wUSC16-13

Houston knocked Texas Tech out of the rankings, edging them by a point, but a win's a win and the Cougars are 4-0. TCU edged Clemson, clearing one of its toughest hurdles toward a BCS-buster season, giving non-BCS teams three of the top seven.

Virginia Tech went from playing like a borderline top 25 team to looking like a top ten team in beating Miami, and they rocket back into the top 25 all the way at #8. Yes, this is an odd week.

Penn State exploits the lack of quality teams at the top and only slides to #9. though they could reasonably be dropped to #20. We're giving them the benefit of the doubt for now. Oklahoma State benefits from Georgia's re-entry and jumps to #10.

South Florida was 3-0 and unranked last week and their season looked over after losing Matt Groethe. But they handled Florida State more easily than Miami did, so we put them at #11; the Hurricanes still have a good résumé so far at #12 and stay ahead of both BYU and #14 Oklahoma, at least until next week when they face the Sooners.

LSU and Michigan both missed a great opportunity to make a big move in the rankings by nearly losing. One play here or there and both would be 3-1 instead of 4-0. With no big wins on their slate they move up only moderately, followed by Arizona and Kansas.

South Carolina's win over Mississippi caused a big problem. Both having one loss, it required me to put the Gamecocks ahead of the Rebels, necessitating a big drop from #4. But Georgia also has but one loss and a win over South Carolina. So they had to be in, also. Meanwhile Oregon (HUGE winner over Cal) and Georgia Tech (beat #10 UNC, lost only to Miami) demanded recognition as well. Dumping the 2-2 teams (FSU, Texas Tech, and Washington) was an easy decision, but which of the upset victims should be kept, and which of the winners should get it?

Ultimately I decided that keeping Mississippi, a 16-10 loser, made more sense than holding on to Cal, a 42-3 loser. I couldn't keep North Carolina without having Georgia Tech ahead of them, and Oregon was even more deserving than the Yellow Jackets, so UNC had to drop out. Using a bit of a cheat and having a tie at #25, I allowed Oregon and Georgia Tech to share the spot. Washington's victor, Stanford, lost themselves to 2-2 Wake Forest and was more easily ignored. That leaves USC as one of only two teams with a loss to a non-top 25 teams. They and Ohio State moved up a notch while Central Michigan, who has never been in the AP top 25, remains at #22 here.

SportsRatings Subjective Top 25 - week three: USC falls

It was an unimpressive weekend for last week's top three teams, to say the least!

#1 Florida and #2 Texas both won, but weren't that impressive. The Gators dispatched Tennessee but not the way a dominant, all-time-best college football team would have. It was somewhat reminiscent of their home win over Miami from last year. Texas beat Texas Tech but didn't get the type of revenge they wanted; instead the 34-24 win either made the Longhorns look less impressive, or the Red Raiders more legit. But both teams won, which is more than we can say for ex-#3 Southern Cal. More on that in a bit. First, the rest of the top ten.

Alabama, Mississippi, and California all move up a spot after winning as expected. Penn State and Boise State take advantage of three losses within the top ten to move up three spots each, though neither really looked like a top ten team in their last game.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week three 2009 (thru 9/19/2009)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Florida	3-0
2	2	Texas	3-0	w TxTech 34-24
4	3	Alabama	3-0
5	4	Mississippi	2-0
6	5	California	3-0
9	6	Penn State	3-0
10	7	Boise St	3-0
12	8	Iowa	3-0	w Arizona 27-17
18	9	Miami	2-0	[email protected] 38-34;w GT 33-17
13	10	North Carolina	3-0
14	11	TCU	2-0
15	12	Houston	2-0	[email protected] 45-35
7	13	Texas Tech	2-1	[email protected] 34-24
25	14	Florida St	2-1	L Miami 38-34;[email protected] 54-28
11	15	BYU	2-1	L FSU 54-28;[email protected] 14-13
16	16	Oklahoma	2-1	L BYU 14-13
17	17	Oklahoma St	2-1	L Houston 45-35
21	18	LSU	3-0	[email protected] 31-23
20	19	Michigan	3-0
8	20	Arizona	2-1	[email protected] 27-17;w CMich19-6
22	21	Kansas	3-0
23	22	C Michigan	2-1	[email protected]
--	23	Washington	2-1	L LSU 31-23;w USC 16-13
3	24	Southern Cal	2-1	[email protected];[email protected]
24	25	Ohio State	2-1	L USC18-15
		Out:
19	--	Georgia Tech	2-1	[email protected] 33-17

Iowa was one of the big winners this week, beating former #8 Arizona. The Hawkeyes fell out of the AP top 25 early and Arizona hasn't been in it, but both teams began near the SportsRatings top ten. Miami is the biggest mover, jumping from #18 to #9 after beating #19 Georgia Tech and getting a big boost from FSU's win over BYU.

That FSU win—which jumps the Seminoles to #14 from #25— creates a clear pecking order among several major teams: Miami, #14 Florida State, #15 BYU, and #16 Oklahoma. The Sooners play Miami in a few weeks which will either reinforce that order or create a circle of logic that I'll just base on point spreads; right now only FSU's win is significant.

North Carolina, TCU, and Houston all move up due to other teams' losses, while Houston's victim Oklahoma State is stalled at #17. Texas Tech falls from #7 to #13; they looked like a top 25 team against the Longhorns on the road, and face Houston next weekend.

Michigan, Kansas, and Central Michigan inch up, while Arizona drops to #20. The Wildcats have a win over the Chippawas that keep them in the rankings, but they have yet to prove themselves worthy of my high pre-season ranking.

LSU moves up three spots to #18; suddenly their narrow win over Washington doesn't look quite as lame! USC falls all the way to #24, just above Ohio State. The Washington Huskies move into the rankings at #23. After all, both they and USC are 2-1, and the Huskies beat the Trojans, so why should the Trojans be ranked ahead of them? The AP poll can't do this, of course, as they have Ohio State near the top ten, meaning USC will stay in their top 10 despite this humbling loss. But I simply drop the Buckeyes one spot and preserve the proper order. There are still no teams in the top 25 with a loss outside the rankings, which is good.

Georgia Tech falls out after losing to Miami; but for the USC upset they would have remained in at #25, and most likely they will end up a top 25 team rather than Washington. But ranking for the here-and-now, the Huskies deserve the recognition, and if you didn't know they'd gone 0-12 last year, doesn't a win over USC and a close loss to LSU look pretty good?

SportsRatings Subjective Top 25 - week two

The SportsRatings subjective Top 25 for week two.

So far #1 Florida and #2 Texas haven't done anything to hurt themselves, and USC's win over Ohio State keeps them lodged at #3. Alabama took its time dispatching FIU and Mississippi didn't play, while Cal has been dominant in its two games.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week two 2009 (thru 9/13/2009)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Florida	2-0
2	2	Texas	2-0
3	3	Southern Cal	2-0	[email protected]
4	4	Alabama	2-0
5	5	Mississippi	1-0
6	6	California	2-0
8	7	Texas Tech	2-0
10	8	Arizona	2-0	w CMich 19-6
9	9	Penn State	2-0
11	10	Boise St	2-0
16	11	BYU	2-0	[email protected] 14-13
12	12	Iowa	2-0
13	13	North Carolina	2-0
14	14	TCU	1-0
--	15	Houston	2-0	[email protected] 45-35
18	16	Oklahoma	1-1	L BYU 14-13
7	17	Oklahoma St	1-1	L Houston 45-35
20	18	Miami	1-0	[email protected] 38-34
21	19	Georgia Tech	2-0
--	20	Michigan	2-0	[email protected]
23	21	LSU	2-0
24	22	Kansas	2-0
--	23	C Michigan	1-1	[email protected] 19-6;[email protected] 29-27
22	24	Ohio State	1-1	L USC18-15
25	25	Florida St	1-1	L Miami 38-34
		Out:
17	--	Notre Dame	1-1	[email protected] 38-34
19	--	Michigan St	1-1	L CMich 29-27
15	--	Stanford	1-1	[email protected] 24-17

Oklahoma State's loss allows some re-shuffling in the top 10. Texas Tech moves up a notch to #7; the Red Raiders aren't in the AP top 25 and face Texas in Austin this week, so either they make a big AP debut or won't be in the poll for some time. At #8 I have Arizona jump Penn State; the Lions beat Syracuse just 28-7 and the Wildcats' win over Central Michigan gained value over the weekend. They play at #12 Iowa this weekend; the winner gets a top ten slot (in our rankings) and moves closer to a spot in the AP top 25.

Boise State moves into the top ten and BYU follows them at #11; both have played two strong games and have leapt TCU as the top BCS-busters. But watch out for #15 Houston,  coming off a win over Oklahoma State. Unlike the AP, I actually rank the Cougars higher than the Cowboys after beating them on the road. UNC holds at #13 after their 2nd unimpressive win.

Oklahoma and Oklahoma State at #16 and #17 are the first teams with losses, both to top 25 foes. At this point no teams in the top 25 have lost outside the rankings. With #18 Miami playing #19 Georgia Tech and #25 Florida State playing #11 BYU there could be a mess in this area next week: if FSU and Georgia Tech win, the pecking order will be Tech, Miami, FSU, BYU, Oklahoma, and some illogical moves will need to be made to preserve that.

Michigan jumps into the fray at #20 ahead of LSU and Kansas, who each move up two spots. Central Michigan joins them at #23 after beating Michigan State. Two other 1-1 teams round out the top 25: Ohio State falls two spots for a decent performance against USC, and Florida State remains stuck at #25 after a lackluster game against Jacksonville State.

Notre Dame falls out after losing to Michigan, and they're going to have a hard time getting back in. Beating Michigan State won't do it, as the Spartans fell out, too. And since Stanford (who choked away a win against Wake Forest) has dropped out, the only current top 25 team remaining on the Irish's schedule is USC.

SportsRatings Subjective Top 25 - week one

I've decided to keep doing the subjective (AP style) top 25, using the SportsRatings pre-season top 25 as a starting point. Without further ado here is week one:

SportsRatings Top 25 - week one 2009 (9/8/2009)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Florida	1-0
2	2	Texas	1-0
4	3	Southern Cal	1-0
6	4	Alabama	1-0	w=VTech 34-24
5	5	Mississippi	1-0
7	6	California	1-0
11	7	Oklahoma St	1-0
8	8	Texas Tech	1-0
9	9	Penn State	1-0
10	10	Arizona	1-0
16	11	Boise St	1-0	w Oregon 19-8
12	12	Iowa	1-0
13	13	North Carolina	1-0
14	14	TCU	0-0
15	15	Stanford	1-0
--	16	BYU	1-0	[email protected] 14-13
17	17	Notre Dame	1-0
3	18	Oklahoma	0-1	L BYU 14-13
20	19	Michigan St	1-0
--	20	Miami	1-0	[email protected] 38-34
21	21	Georgia Tech	1-0
22	22	Ohio State	1-0
23	23	LSU	1-0
24	24	Kansas	1-0
18	25	Florida St	0-1	L Miami 38-34
		out:
19	--	Oregon	0-1	[email protected] St. 19-8
25	--	Virginia Tech	0-1	L=Alabama 34-24

The top few are pretty obvious and match the AP poll; I moved Alabama ahead of Mississippi for beating Virginia Tech; the Tide and Rebels were essentially tied for #5 in my pre-season rankings.

Cal moves up a spot to #6 and Oklahoma State jumps to #7 after beating Georgia; the Bulldogs were just outside the top 25 to begin the year.

Boise State beat Oregon, which should be their only challenge this year; I'd say #11 is about right for them at this point. They'll beat up on a lot of bad teams from here on out and will move up very slowly because of weak schedule strength. But right now their résumé is about as good as anyone's.

The teams in the 8-15 range could be overrated but I'll stick with them for now. Texas Tech, Arizona, and Stanford are way higher than anyone else had them pre-season, and Iowa laid an egg against UNI. Time will tell.

Instead of putting BYU in the top ten like the AP does, I dropped Oklahoma more and put the Cougars at a reasonable #16. Neither team looked great and the Sooners will be without Bradford for some time and just lost Jermaine Gresham. More to the point, their offense has clearly lost a lot of punch with the new offensive line.

Notre Dame remains #17; they beat Nevada about right for a #17 team. Miami jumps in at #20 as the next several teams in line (Georgia Tech, Ohio State, LSU) didn't look good at all and don't move up. FSU falls to #25 but stays in; if the game-ending pass were thrown a foot higher they'd still be #18, so I can't justify dumping them.

Oregon does get dumped, as they looked horrific in the first half and no longer have LaGarrette Blount to boot. Virginia Tech slips off the end of the poll as well (they didn't start in my top ten, needless to say).

SportsRatings Final 2008 College Football Top 25: Utah is #1

The Utah Utes are the #1 team for 2008 in the final SportsRatings College Football Top 25.

Utah finished undefeated and beat four other teams in the top 25, two in the top ten. That's good enough to consider them, as the only undefeated team, tops in the land. They beat #6 Alabama just as convincingly or moreso as #2 Florida did, and beat Oregon State, the team that beat #4 USC.

Texas was #1 last week, and though it may be unfair and I usually don't drop a team that doesn't lose, the final poll has to reflect what I believe. The Lonhorns' main argument for being #1 is that they'd only lost to a 1-loss team and had beaten the team with the best résumé. Now that Texas Tech and Oklahoma lost again, that argument doesn't put Texas ahead of Utah. It also puts the Longhorns in a tie at #2 with Florida; the teams now have similar résumés: a ten-point win over Oklahoma and one loss to a top 25 team. Texas has a few more top 25 wins, but Florida has two ten ten win; Texas lost to a 2-loss team rather than a 4-loss team, but Mississippi beat Texas Tech head-to-head. It's a wash.

USC moves up to fourth after their strong win over Penn State and the Pac-10's 5-0 bowl performance, and they're really quite close to Florida and Texas. #5 Oklahoma isn't far behind either, with losses to co-number twos Texas and Florida and a long list of top 25 wins. Alabama has losses only to #1 Utah and co-#2 Florida, but lags in terms of big victories. Still, they don't fall from the previous rankings.

TCU jumps up four spots to #7 after beating Boise State. The Horned Frogs have two losses, both to top-5 teams. #8 Penn State and #9 Boise State hold their spots despite losing as Texas Tech tumbles from #3 to #10.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Final rankings for 2008 season (1-08-2009)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Significant wins/losses
4	1.	Utah	13-0	wins: =Alabama31-17,TCU13-10,OreSt31-28,BYU48-24 losses: none
1	2t	Texas	12-1	wins: =OK45-35,OhioSt24-21,OkSt28-24,Mizz56-31,Rice52-10 Losses: @Texas Tech 39-33
5	2t	Florida	13-1	wins: =Oklahoma24-14,Alabama31-20,Georgia49-10 Losses: Mississippi31-30
7	4.	Southern Cal	12-1	wins: PennState38-24,Oregon44-10,OhioState35-3,@Cal17-3 Losses: @Oregon State 27-21
2	5.	Oklahoma	12-2	wins: TTech65-21,TCU35-10,Cin52-26,@OkSt61-41,=Mizz62-21 Losses: =Florida24-14, =Texas 45-35
6	6.	Alabama	12-2	wins: @Georgia41-30,Miss24-20 Losses: =FLA31-20,=Utah31-17
11	7.	TCU	11-2	wins: BYU32-7,=BoiseSt17-16 Losses: @OK35-10,@Utah13-10
8	8.	Penn State	11-2	wins: @OSU13-6,MichSt48-19,OreSt45-14 Losses: @Iowa24-23,@USC38-24
9	9.	Boise State	12-1	wins: @Oregon37-32 Losses: =TCU17-16
3	10.	Texas Tech	11-2	wins: Texas39-33,OklaSt56-20 Losses: =Miss47-34,@OK65-21
18	11.	Oregon	10-3	wins: @OreSt62-21,=OkSt42-31 Losses: @Cal26-16,BoiseSt37-32,@USC44-10
10	12.	Ohio State	10-3	wins: MichSt45-7,@Nwest45-10 Losses: @USC35-3,PennSt13-6,=Texas24-21
24	13.	Mississippi	9-4	wins: @Fla31-30,=Ttech47-34 Losses: @Wake30-28,Vand23-17,SCaro31-24,@Ala24-20
17	14.	Georgia	10-3	wins: =MSU26-12 Losses: GT45-42,=FLA49-10,Ala41-30
12	15.	Oklahoma State	9-4	wins: Mizz28-23 Losses: =Oregon42-31,@TTech56-20,@Tex28-24,OK61-41
23	16.	Oregon State	9-4	wins: USC27-21,=Pitt3-0,Cal34-21 Losses: @Stan36-28,@PennSt45-14,@Utah31-28,Ore65-38
13	17.	Cincinnati	11-3	wins: Pitt28-21 Losses: @UConn40-16,=VT20-7,@OK52-26
--	18.	California	9-4	wins: MichSt38-31,Ore26-16 Losses: @Ariz42-27,@Mary35-27,@USC17-3,@OreSt34-21
19	19.	Michigan State	9-4	wins: @Nwest37-20,Iowa16-13 Losses: @Cal38-31,OSU45-7,@PennSt48-19,GA24-12
--	20.	Missouri	10-4	wins: =Nwest30-23ot Losses: =KU40-37,OKst28-23,@Tex56-31,=Oklahoma62-21
21	21.	Northwestern	9-4	wins: @Iowa22-17 Losses: @Ind21-19,MichSt37-20,OSU45-10,=Mizz30-23ot
20	22.	Pittsburgh	9-4	wins: Iowa21-20 Losses: BowlGr27-17,L Rutgers54-34,@Cincy28-21,=OreSt3-0
25	23.	Iowa	9-4	wins: PennSt24-23 Losses: @Ill27-24,@Pitt21-20,Nwest22-17,@MichSt16-13
--	24.	Tulsa	11-3	wins: =BallSt45-13,Rice 63-28 Losses: @Ark30-23,@Houston70-30,ECar27-24
16	25t	Brigham Young	10-3	Losses: =Arizona31-21,@TCU32-7,@Utah48-24
14	25t	Ball State	12-2	Losses: =Tulsa45-13=Buffalo42-24
--	25t	Rice	10-3	Losses: @Vandy38-21,@Tulsa63-28,@Texas52-10

 

The highest-ranked 3-loss team is Oregon at #11, just ahead of Ohio State at #12. The Ducks and Buckeyes both lost big on the road to USC and lost to two other top 25 teams. Ohio State's losses were all to top-10 teams, but the Ducks have stronger wins to offset it, though it's very close. Right behind them is the top-ranked 4-loss team, Mississippi. The Rebels have a bunch of not-so-great losses, but are the only team beside Utah, Florida, and Oklahoma to have two wins over top ten teams. They fly up from #24 to #13.

10-3 Georgia follows at #14, up from #17. The Bulldogs have losses to Florida and Alabama, but only one strong win, in their bowl game against Michigan State. Oklahoma State dips just a few spots to #15 after their loss to Oregon; all four of their losses are to teams ranked #11 or above. Oregon State has three wins over top 25 competition, including a win over USC, but their loss to Stanford soils their résumé just a bit. Big East champ Cincinnati, who had 11 wins in 2008, follows at #17.

California jumps back in at #18, ahead of #19 Michigan State, whom they beat in the first game of the season. All of the Spartans' losses are to top 20 teams, but their wins are fairly weak, while Cal beat MSU head-to-head and beat Oregon as well.

The next four teams all have four losses and are ranked relative to each other and Michigan State. The Spartans beat #21 Northwestern and did so more convincingly than #20 Missouri, who needed overtime, did. Likewise Northwestern beat #23 Iowa on the road while #22 Pittsburgh won by a point at home. The Hawkeyes at #23 are the lynchpin that prevents several teams from falling out of the top 25; they won their bowl game 31-10 and have a win over Penn State.

Tulsa gets back in the rankings at #24 with a strong win over Ball State in the GMAC bowl, giving them two wins over teams with 3-losses or fewer. The final three teams tied at #25 all have 3 or fewer losses but no wins over top 25 teams: BYU (10-3) and the two teams Tulsa beat, Ball State (12-2) and Rice (10-3).

And for "others receiving votes" I designate the entire Atlantic Coast Conference, in no particular order.

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - week 15 end of regular season

Who will be #1 when the smoke clears after all the bowl games? Based on my rankings, using guidelines of head-to-head competition and performance in big games, it could be any of four or five teams. My other guideline—that teams don't fall unless they lose—will almost certainly be broken since there are so many teams close to one another and a proper ranking will probably jumble things around a bit.

#1 Texas gets the crown if they beat Ohio State sufficiently. I don't know what 'sufficiently' means but it probably means they have to beat the Buckeyes worse than Penn State did, but not necessarily as bad as USC did. There are, however, complicating factors; see Florida's entry.

#2 Oklahoma is a certain #1 if they beat Florida and Texas loses to Ohio State. They've got such a slew of big wins that if considering résumé alone they are the top team. But the head-to-head loss to Texas is paramount by the guidelines I use here.

#3 Texas Tech is probably out of luck. If Oklahoma wins the Sooners are in front of them; if Florida can beat Oklahoma, the team that beat the Red Raiders by 44, they deserve to be ahead. So even if Oklahoma loses, which gives Tech an argument to finish ahead of Texas, Tech won't be #1. Normally I don't give much weight to margin of victory, but in big games, and when it can't be ignored, I do, and 44 points can't be ignored. What's really interesting is that Tech is playing the team that beat Florida, so maybe I'll compare all the point spreads. If they can beat Ole Miss by 44 and Florida beats Oklahoma only by a point, does that make things even? :)

#4 Utah has a slim chance: beat the tar out of Alabama to convince me they deserve to stay ahead of a Florida team that beats Oklahoma, and probably Texas has to lose, too. I would jump them over Texas Tech, since Utah will have a heftier résumé in addition to being undefeated. It's going to take some judgement to put Utah in a final slot.

#5 Florida is #1 or #2 in most polls, and is almost certainly one of the two best teams in the country right now, so that's fair enough. But my ranking is based not on who I think a team would beat but rather on who a team has beaten. And in that respect, Florida hasn't done much more than anyone else. Their wins over non-ranked teams have been devastation, but they've beaten just two top 25 teams, and lost to another. Which makes them approximately equivalent to most of the teams in the top ten. To claim the top spot, they need to beat Oklahoma more convincingly than Texas did, and/or have Texas lose. An Alabama win over Utah would help, and a Mississippi upset of Texas Tech would be icing on the cake.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 15 (12-07-2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Significant wins/losses
2	1.	Texas	11-1	[email protected];w=OK45-35,OkSt28-24,Mizz56-31
3	2.	Oklahoma	12-1	L=Tx45-35;wTech65-21,TCU35-10,Cin52-26,@OkSt61-41,=Miz62-21
4	3.	Texas Tech	11-1	[email protected];wTexas39-33,OklaSt56-20
5	4.	Utah	12-0	wTCU13-10,BYU48-24,OreSt31-28
6	5.	Florida	12-1	L Miss31-30;w=Georgia49-10,=Alabama31-20
1	6.	Alabama	12-1	L=FLA31-20;[email protected],Miss24-20
7	7.	Southern Cal	11-1	[email protected];wOhioState35-3,Oregon44-10
8	8.	Penn State	11-1	[email protected];[email protected],MichSt48-19,OreSt45-14
9	9.	Boise State	12-0	[email protected]
11	10.	Ohio State	10-2	[email protected],PennSt13-6;wMichSt45-7,@Nwest45-10
12	11.	TCU	10-2	[email protected],@Utah13-10;wBYU32-7
13	12.	Oklahoma St.	9-3	[email protected],@Tex28-24,OK61-41;[email protected]
14	13.	Cincinnati	11-2	[email protected],@OK52-26;wPitt28-21
10	14.	Ball State	12-1	L=Buffalo42-24;wWMich45-22
15	15.	Georgia Tech	9-3	[email protected],VT20-17,@UNC28-7;[email protected],[email protected]
16	16.	BYU	10-2	[email protected],@Utah48-24
17	17.	Georgia	9-3	L GT45-42,=FLA49-10,Ala41-30
18	18.	Oregon	9-3	[email protected],BoiseSt37-32,@USC44-10;[email protected]
21	19.	Michigan St.	9-3	[email protected],OSU45-7,@PSU48-19;[email protected],Iowa16-13
23	20.	Pittsburgh	9-3	L BowlGr27-17,L Rutgers54-34,@Cincy28-21;wIowa21-20
25	21.	Northwestern	9-3	[email protected],MichSt37-20,OSU45-10;[email protected]
24	22.	W. Michigan	9-3	[email protected],@CMich38-28,@BallSt45-22
--	23.	Oregon State	8-4	[email protected],@PSU45-14,@Utah31-28,Ore65-38;wUSC27-21
--	24.	Mississippi	8-4	[email protected],Vand23-17,SCar31-24,@Ala24-20;[email protected]
--	25.	Iowa	8-4	[email protected],@Pitt21-20,Nwest22-17,@MSU16-13;wPSU24-23
		out:
19	--	Missouri	9-4	L=KU40-37,OKst28-23,@Tex56-31,=Oklahoma62-21
20	--	Boston Coll.	9-4	L Clem27-21, @UNC45-24,=VTech30-12,GTech19-16
22	--	Tulsa	10-3	[email protected],@Houston70-30,ECar27-24

 

The rest of the field is just jockeying for a better final ranking. #6 Alabama can finish #2 if everything goes right, which includes Florida beating Oklahoma. Otherwise I'll probably keep Florida ahead of them. #7 USC and #8 Penn State are in the same boat: the winner moves up, the loser moves down, but both have a high "floor" due to #10 Ohio State. The Buckeyes therefore can't move up much even if they upset the Longhorns; instead Texas would take a tumble.

Then there are #9 Boise State, and #11 TCU, who also play each other. Again it will be hard to move up much, though Boise State has more upside if they win and finish unbeaten. TCU has two "ceilings" above them: Oklahoma and Utah. If both those teams win, however, they deserve a top ten finish. Along with Texas they held Oklahoma to their season low point total (35) so far.

#12 Oklahoma State has the distinction of having lost to the #1, #2, and #3 teams. Now they have to prove they can beat a real top 25 team, since previous victim Missouri falls out this week. They meet #18 Oregon.

#13 Cincinnati (2 losses) and #14 Ball State (1 loss) probably can't gain much despite their low loss totals, as they haven't beaten enough good teams to move past even those who will be falling out of the top echelon. Likewise, #16 BYU (2 losses) plays Arizona, a win that won't help them much.

#17 Georgia meets #19 Michigan State in the Capital One bowl, but none of the other 3-loss teams have much of a shot at improving their status. However, and team that finishes with 3 losses or fewer is basically guaranteed a slot in the final top 25. Even Tulsa (who falls out this week) and Rice (who is 9-3 and stuck behind Tulsa due to losing to them) can easily get in, as they play Ball State and #22 Western Michigan respectively.

There will be many four-loss teams vying for slots, and right now Oregon State, Mississippi, and Iowa are in due to their big upsets of USC, Florida, and Penn State. Of the three Mississippi has the best shot of moving up from a bowl win, as they play Texas Tech; Iowa has the least, since they are stuck behind three teams: #19 Michigan State, #20 Pitt and #21 Northwestern. If any of those teams lose, the Hawks will probably stay where they are even if they beat South Carolina, a win that holds little cachet regardless.

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - week 14

Does Alabama deserve to be #1? Their lone significant win, over Georgia, looks less than amazing in retrospect, and the SEC as a whole is clearly down this year—witness the Arkansas/LSU game with both teams unranked, which showed the conference's decline from 2007. But the Tide will get a chance to prove it next week against Florida, the one SEC team no one's questioning right now. In strict terms, Florida's résumé isn't all that great—a loss to Mississippi and a win over the same Georgia team Alabama beat. But they keep winning by 30+ points, so humans and computers allowed to see that aspect rank them much higher. For these rankings, résumé is everything, so the Gators are #6 until next week.

In between from #2 to #5 are the Big Twelve teams and Utah. The Texas/Oklahoma/Texas Tech round-robin tie still goes to Texas. It might be hard to keep it that way if the Sooners beat Missouri and Alabama/Florida, but for now I'm following my guidelines. And if Oklahoma loses, I probably won't put Tech above the Longhorns, as head-to-head order would want. Utah will probably get a shot at Texas or Alabama/Florida, so they're in the mix too. An undefeated team with several big wins deserves consideration as the top team, and unlike Hawaii last year they've played a solid schedule and won convincingly most of the time.

USC stays #7 and Penn State #8, and I don't have to worry any longer about which team I should rank ahead of the other since they should be meeting in the Rose Bowl. As long as USC beats UCLA, which this year seems more certain than ever. And an upset there would settle the question as well.

#9 Boise State and #10 Ball State completed 12-0 seasons, though the latter has a conference championship game left. Oregon's win over Oregon State gives the Broncos their one significant win back, and Ball State has wins over Western and Central Michigan. By that measure, each is the equal of Alabama, but their overall schedules are much weaker.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 14 (11-30-2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Significant wins/losses
1	1.	Alabama	12-0	[email protected]
2	2.	Texas	11-1	[email protected];w=OK45-35,Mizz56-31,OkSt28-24
3	3.	Oklahoma	11-1	L=Tex45-35;wTTech65-21,TCU35-7,Cin52-26,@OkSt61-41
4	4.	Texas Tech	11-1	[email protected];wTexas39-33,OklaSt56-20
5	5.	Utah	12-0	wTCU13-10,BYU48-24,OreSt31-28
6	6.	Florida	11-1	L Miss31-30;w=GA49-10,@FSU45-15
7	7.	Southern Cal	10-1	[email protected];wOhioState35-3,Oregon44-10
8	8.	Penn State	11-1	[email protected];[email protected],MichSt48-19,OreSt45-14
9	9.	Boise State	12-0	[email protected]
10	10.	Ball State	12-0	wWMich45-22,@CMich31-24
11	11.	Ohio State	10-2	[email protected],PennSt13-6;wMichSt45-7,@Nwest45-10
14	12.	TCU	10-2	[email protected],@Utah13-10;wBYU32-7
13	13.	Oklahoma St.	9-3	[email protected],@Tex28-24,OK61-41;[email protected]
16	14.	Cincinnati	10-2	[email protected],@OK52-26;wPitt28-21
19	15.	Georgia Tech	9-3	[email protected],Va24-17,@NC28-7;[email protected],@BC19-16,FSU31-28
17	16.	BYU	10-2	[email protected],@Utah48-24
12	17.	Georgia	9-3	L GT45-42,=FLA49-10,Ala41-30;CMich56-17
23	18.	Oregon	9-3	[email protected],BoiseSt37-32,@USC44-10;[email protected]
15	19.	Missouri	9-3	L=KU40-37,OKst28-23,@Tex56-31
20	20.	Boston Coll.	9-3	L Clem27-21, @UNC45-24,GTech19-16;[email protected]
24	21.	Michigan St.	9-3	[email protected],OSU45-7,@PennSt48-19;[email protected]
25t	22.	Tulsa	10-2	[email protected],@Houston70-30
--	23.	Pittsburgh	8-3	L BowlGr27-17,L Rutgers54-34,@Cincy28-21
21	24.	W. Michigan	9-3	[email protected],@CMich38-28,@BallSt45-22
--	25.	Northwestern	9-3	[email protected],MichSt37-20,OSU45-10
		out:
18	--	Oregon State	8-4	[email protected],@PSU45-14,@Utah31-28,Ore65-38;wUSC27-21
22	--	Florida State	8-4	L Wake12-3,@GTech31-28,BC27-17,FL45-15
25t	--	C. Michigan	8-4	[email protected],@Pur35-32,@GA56-17,BallSt31-24;wWMi38-28

Ohio State stayed at #11 and Oklahoma State remained #13 despite their loss to Oklahoma. Considering that their three losses are to the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th ranked teams and they have a solid road win over Missouri, they needn't fall. TCU does jump them into the #12 spot, as former #12 Georgia drops to 17th. The team that beat them, Georgia Tech, makes the top 15; currently the Yellow Jackets have three losses to 4-loss teams and two wins over top 25 teams. BYU edges up a spot to #16.

Oregon makes a big move up to #18, and Oregon State falls out for now—they'll be back in for sure if they win their bowl game. Missouri slides to 19th after losing to Kansas, and may fall out next week (of course, beating the Sooners would improve their stock immensely). Boston College, who will play for a BCS berth, and Michigan State follow. Tulsa barely beat Marshall and is easily the lamest 2-loss team; they also have a conference title game, against East Carolina, coming up.

Tulsa does have a win over Rice, the only 9-3 team left out of the rankings this week; if Tulsa loses next week, both teams will likely be on the outside until the bowl season. I made a conscious decision not to include any four-loss teams this week, since the three with big upset wins—Oregon State, Mississippi, and Iowa—are all very close and including one of them would confuse the situation at the top. But next week some of them may enter, though Iowa is stuck behind both #23 Pittsburgh and #25 Northwestern, even if either of the latter suffer their 4th loss, which Pitt might have against Connecticut next week.

Along with the Beavers, Florida State and Central Michigan dropped out. The former lost big to Florida, but that's not so bad that a bowl win can't get them back in. The latter lost to 3-9 Eastern Michigan, which gives the Chippewas two losses to losing teams and probably precludes them from making the final top 25.

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - week 13

After much soul-searching and delaying I've finally decided on how to rank the top teams, for now, while trying to follow my guidelines. Oklahoma's blowout of Texas Tech created a three-way round robin between the Sooners, Red Raiders, and Texas, putting them in a virtual tie. Deciding on an order wasn't difficult: Tech has to be last since they were crushed, while Texas won on a neutral field against Oklahoma, and lost only on a last-second play. But things get dicey if Oklahoma loses and Texas Tech again has priority over Texas; this may be a case where I have to disregard my head-to-head-always-rules guideline. But we'll see.

Alabama finally gets to be #1, even as their résumé looks weaker than ever, with wins over Georgia and LSU looking far from impressive. Still, they haven't lost, and will have to prove they are #1 to stay there by beating Florida and possibly Oklahoma. Meanwhile #5 Utah's résumé looks stronger than ever, with three wins over top 25 teams and one just falling out. With no games left, the Utes can still move up if others above them falter, and right now I see no reason to put #6 Florida ahead of them, as they have basically the same record as Alabama but with a loss. Head-to-head I think Florida wins handily, but I tend to discount margin-of-victory, except in big games, and look at quality wins. We may get to see these two play—or Utah play Alabama—since it looks like the Utes will get a quality opponent unlike in 2004. Too bad their team isn't the equal of that one.

USC stays #7 and Penn State #8. Along with Florida these are teams that are probably all top five in quality, but have unfortunate losses that drag them down. Hopefully these two will play in the Rose Bowl and the debate can end.

#9 Boise State and #10 Ball State remain undefeated and now they both have an accomplishment by their name: the Cardinals for beating Central Michigan, and the Broncos for their early-season win over Oregon. If these two aren't going to be in a BCS bowl they should at least be matched up in some other bowl, but I'm not sure there's a good mechanism in place for that.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 13 (11-23-2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Big wins/losses
2	1.	Alabama	11-0	[email protected],@LSU27-21ot
3	2.	Texas	10-1	[email protected];w=OK45-35,Mizz56-31,OkSt28-24
4	3.	Oklahoma	10-1	L=Texas45-35;wTTech65-21,TCU35-7,Cin52-26
1	4.	Texas Tech	10-0	[email protected];wTexas39-33,OklaSt56-20
5	5.	Utah	12-0	wTCU13-10,BYU48-24,OreSt31-28,@AirForce30-23
6	6.	Florida	10-1	L Miss31-30;w=GA49-10,LSU51-21
7	7.	Southern Cal	9-1	[email protected];wOhioState35-3,Oregon44-10
8	8.	Penn State	11-1	[email protected];[email protected],MichSt48-19,OreSt45-14
9	9.	Boise State	11-0	[email protected]
10	10.	Ball State	11-0	[email protected]
11	11.	Ohio State	10-2	[email protected],PennSt13-6;wMichSt45-7
12	12.	Georgia	9-2	L=FLA49-10,Ala41-30;wCMich56-17,@LSU52-38
13	13.	Oklahoma State	9-2	[email protected],@Texas28-24;[email protected]
14	14.	TCU	10-2	[email protected],@Utah13-10;wBYU32-7,AirForce44-10
15	15.	Missouri	9-2	L OKst28-23,@Tex56-31
17	16.	Cincinnati	9-2	[email protected],@OK52-26;wPitt28-21
16	17.	Brigham Young	10-2	[email protected],@Utah48-24;[email protected]
--	18.	Oregon State	8-3	[email protected],@PennSt45-14,@Utah31-28;wUSC27-21
--	19.	Georgia Tech	8-3	[email protected],VA24-17,@UNC28-7;[email protected],FSU31-28
--	20.	Boston College	8-3	L Clem27-21, @UNC45-24,GTech19-16;[email protected]
21	21.	Western Michigan	9-2	[email protected],@CMich38-28
--	22.	Florida State	8-3	L Wake12-3,@GTech31-28,BC27-17;wMary37-3
--	23.	Oregon	8-3	[email protected],BoiseSt37-32,@USC44-10
18	24.	Michigan State	9-3	[email protected],OSU45-7,@PennSt48-19
20	25t	Central Michigan	8-3	[email protected],@GA56-17,BallSt31-24;wWMich38-28
--	25t	Tulsa	8-2	[email protected],@Houston70-30
		out:
22	--	Pittsburgh	7-3	L BowlGr27-17,L Rutgers54-34,@Cincy28-21
19	--	LSU	7-4	L Miss31-13,@FLA51-21,GA52-38,Ala27-21ot
23	--	Air Force	8-4	L Navy33-27,Utah30-23,BYU38-24,@TCU44-10
24	--	Maryland	7-4	[email protected],@VA31-0,@VT23-13,FSU37-3;wUNC17-15
25	--	North Carolina	7-4	L NCst41-10,@VA16-13ot,VTech20-17,@Mary17-15

11-15 remain the same. Of these, #11 Ohio State and #14 TCU have finished their seasons, and #12 Georgia plays Georgia Tech. The teams with a chance to move up, of course, are #13 Oklahoma State (who plays Oklahoma) and #15 Missouri (in the Big Twelve championship).

#17 BYU falls only one spot for losing to Utah, while Cincinnati's defeat of Pitt moves them up slightly. Then comes the ever-changing slate of 3-loss teams, headed by Oregon State, who finally gets in at #18 along with Oregon at #23 to give the Pac-10 more representation. One of the two will remain next week. The ACC's revolving-door reps this week are #19 Georgia Tech (thrashed Miami), #22 Florida State (crushed Maryland), and #20 Boston College (previously defeated FSU). Next week Georgia Tech plays Georgia and FSU faces Florida, and after that there's the ACC title game, so by the end of the season, all ACC teams may have four or more losses; unless they do well come bowl time, the ACC might not have any Top 25 teams.

Three Michigan teams—Western Michigan and Central Michigan from the MAC, and Michigan State—are in the last five. Or, six, since Tulsa is added so that all 2-loss teams are in, though they only rate a tie at 25 due to poor résumé.

All the teams that suffered their fourth loss—LSU, Air Force, Maryland, UNC—are out, along with Pittsburgh who has a weak argument for a 3-loss team. They play West Virginia this coming week, a team with a nearly identical loss record (both lost to a losing team, a non-rated team, and Cincinnati) and the winner will probably get in next week. The remaining 3-loss teams are on the outside looking in because they must be ranked below teams they lost to: Rice (lost previously to #25 Tulsa) and Northwestern (lost to #24 Michigan State).

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - week 12

Not much to say this week, obviously: no team in the top 16 lost, and few even had scares. The highest-rated team that played another ranked team was #16 BYU.

So maybe a preview of the coming weekend's games is in order. #1 Texas Tech travels to #4 Oklahoma in a game that will certainly convolute the national title picture if the Sooners win. In that case those two teams, plus #3 Texas, will be tied for the lead in the Big Twelve south. Oklahoma still has to play Oklahoma State, of course, and one of the three will play Missouri for the Big Twelve title. If that team loses, then the other two are back in play. If Oklahoma plays and beats Missouri, in my mind that only evens them with Texas, who already beat the Tigers. So I'm not sure I wouldn't have Texas the highest-rated B12 team based on their win over Oklahoma on a neutral field. Texas and #2 Alabama are idle this weekend.

#5 Utah takes on #16 BYU. A win would give the Utes three wins over ranked teams, and a legitimate claim in my mind to the national title game. A loss would drop them somewhere below the Cougars, but really both teams should be in the top 10 in that case, as Utah's résumé would have a couple of solid wins to go with an excuseable loss, which is actually better than #6 Florida, #7 Southern Cal, and #8 Penn State can say. Speaking of those teams, USC has the week off and Florida does too for all intents and purposes as they host The Citadel. Penn State takes on #18 Michigan State for the Big Ten title. If they lose, it creates a three-way round-robin with #11 Ohio State. The Buckeyes would probably be on top of that tie, as both of their losses are to top ten teams.

#9 Boise State and #10 Ball State, both undefeated, face Nevada and #20 Central Michigan, respectively. If Ball State wins Wednesday night, they have a claim to be ahead of the Broncos, who won't have a top 25 win. However, they'll still be essentially equal as Boise State beat 8-3 Oregon, who could get in the top 25 at any time. The Chippawas have an argument to be ahead of Ball State if they beat them convincingly.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 12 (11-16-2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Big wins/losses
1	1.	Texas Tech	10-0	wTexas39-33,OklaSt56-20
2	2.	Alabama	11-0	[email protected],@LSU27-21ot
3	3.	Texas	10-1	[email protected];w=OK45-35,Mizz56-31,OkSt28-24
4	4.	Oklahoma	9-1	L=Texas45-35;wTCU35-7,Cin52-26
5	5.	Utah	11-0	wTCU13-10,@AirForce30-23
6	6.	Florida	9-1	L Miss31-30;w=GA49-10,LSU51-21
7	7.	Southern Cal	9-1	[email protected];wOhioState35-3
8	8.	Penn State	10-1	[email protected];[email protected]
9	9.	Boise State	10-0
10	10.	Ball State	10-0
11	11.	Ohio State	9-2	[email protected],PennSt13-6;wMichSt45-7
12	12.	Georgia	9-2	L=FLA49-10,Ala41-30;[email protected],CMich56-17
13	13.	Oklahoma State	9-2	[email protected],@Texas28-24;[email protected]
14	14.	TCU	9-2	[email protected],@Utah13-10;wBYU32-7
15	15.	Missouri	9-2	L OKst28-23,@Tex56-31
16	16.	Brigham Young	10-1	[email protected];[email protected]
18	17.	Cincinnati	8-2	[email protected],@OK52-26
19	18.	Michigan State	9-2	[email protected],OSU45-7
23	19.	LSU	7-3	[email protected],Georgia52-38,Alabama27-21ot
24	20.	Central Michigan	8-2	[email protected],@Georgia56-17;wWMich38-28
25	21.	Western Michigan	9-2	[email protected],@CMich38-28
--	22.	Pittsburgh	7-2	L BowlGr27-17,L Rutgers54-34
20	23.	Air Force	8-3	L Navy33-27,Utah30-23,BYU38-24
--	24.	Maryland	7-3	[email protected],@Virg31-0,@VTech23-13;wUNC17-15
17	25.	North Carolina	7-3	[email protected],VTech20-17,@Mary17-15
		out:
21	--	Florida State	7-3	L Wake12-3,@GTech31-28,BC27-17
22	--	Tulsa	8-2	[email protected],@Houston70-30

Now the pack of 2-loss teams. After Ohio State, #12 Georgia, #13 Oklahoma State, and #15 Missouri are idle. #14 TCU battles #23 Air Force. The Falcons stayed in the top 25 after their loss to BYU, but another loss would put them out. A win, though, would drop TCU below them—but TCU's résumé will still be better than #19 LSU's, so Air Force would probably have to jump over LSU.

#17 Cincinnati faces new #22 Pitt for the Big East title, most likely. The winner may be the only Big East team in the final regular season rankings a few weeks from now. The other 'Big Six' conference hurting for Top 25 representatives is the ACC, who currently has Maryland and North Carolina, whom the Terps just beat. Six teams in the ACC have three overall losses, and a perfect pecking order among them:

1. Maryland: beat North Carolina
2. North Carolina: lost to Maryland; beat Georgia Tech, Miami
3. Georgia Tech: lost to North Carolina; beat Boston College, Florida State
4. Boston College: lost to Georgia Tech, North Carolina; beat Florida State
5. Florida State: lost to Boston College, Georgia Tech; beat Miami
6. Miami: lost to Florida State, North Carolina

Ironically, Miami is one of two teams (along with Maryland) that control their own destiny in the conference, each having only two ACC losses. The 'Canes play Georgia Tech this weekend; Maryland plays Florida State; North Carolina plays North Carolina State, and Boston College takes on Wake Forest.

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are now the only 2-loss team not in the rankings; Pitt joined at #22, while Tulsa's 40-point loss to Houston was a little too much to stomach.

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - week 11

It's easy to rate the performance of the previous week's top three teams. Ex-#3 Penn State lost at Iowa; #2 Alabama edged former #19 LSU in overtime; and #1 Texas Tech stomped #8 Oklahoma State 56-20. So while the top two teams both have two wins over top 25 teams, the Red Raiders' victories are more substantial and they unquestionably deserve the top spot right now.

Moving up a spot each are Texas and Oklahoma; the Longhorns need a Tech loss to get back into the national title picture and Oklahoma might be the team to do it two weeks from now. That would cause a three-way tie between the teams, and in my mind Texas would be at the top of that pile with their neutral-field win over the Sooners. Note that Oklahoma's biggest win so far this year is over TCU—a team that #5 Utah beat in a nail-biter, a game they should have lost. With Air Force entering the poll, though, the Utes have two significant wins.

The next three teams are tied for all practical purposes, each having a slim loss to a non-top 25 team, but Florida has two solid wins and edges past USC, who knocked Cal out of the rankings. The USC-Penn State comparison is interesting: both have a road loss and a win over Ohio State. USC's was more impressive certainly, but Penn State can counter with their crushing win over Oregon State. I might go back and forth on this one, but hopefully it will be settled on the field in the Rose Bowl. Note that if Oregon State and Penn State win out, the two will have a rematch of the 45-14 game from September, a prospect that might be worse than the USC-Ohio State rematch many feared.

Rounding out the top ten are undefeated Boise State and Ball State. The latter faces a couple of tough games (Central and Western Michigan) and a league championship game, and could move past the Broncos if successful in completing an undefeated slate.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 11 (11-09-2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Big wins/losses
1	1.	Texas Tech	10-0	wTexas39-33,OklaSt56-20
2	2.	Alabama	10-0	[email protected],@LSU27-21ot
4	3.	Texas	9-1	[email protected];w=OK45-35,Mizz56-31,OkSt28-24
5	4.	Oklahoma	9-1	L=Texas45-35;wTCU35-7,Cin52-26
7	5.	Utah	10-0	wTCU13-10,@AirForce30-23
9	6.	Florida	8-1	L Miss31-30;w=GA49-10,LSU51-21
8	7.	Southern Cal	8-1	[email protected];wOhioState35-3,California17-3
3	8.	Penn State	9-1	[email protected];[email protected]
10	9.	Boise State	9-0
12	10.	Ball State	9-0
13	11.	Ohio State	8-2	[email protected],PennSt13-6;wMichSt45-7,@Nwest45-10
14	12.	Georgia	8-2	L=FLA49-10,Ala41-30;[email protected],CMich56-17
6	13.	Oklahoma St	8-2	[email protected],@Texas28-24;[email protected]
11	14.	TCU	9-2	[email protected],@Utah13-10;wBYU32-7
15	15.	Missouri	8-2	L OKst28-23,@Tex56-31
16	16.	BYU	9-1	[email protected]
17	17.	North Carolina	7-2	[email protected],VTech20-17;wGTech28-7
20	18.	Cincinnati	7-2	[email protected],@OK52-26;[email protected]
23	19.	Michigan State	9-2	[email protected],OSU45-7;[email protected]
	20.	Air Force	8-2	L Navy33-27,Utah30-23
	21.	Florida State	7-2	L Wake12-3,@GTech31-28
25t	22.	Tulsa	8-1	[email protected]
19	23.	LSU	6-3	[email protected],Georgia52-38,Alabama27-21ot
	24.	Central Mich.	7-2	[email protected],@Georgia56-17;wWMich38-28
	25.	Western Mich.	8-2	[email protected],@CMich38-28
		out:
24	-	Northwestern	7-3	[email protected],MichSt37-20,OSU45-10
21	-	Maryland	6-3	[email protected],@Virg31-0,@VTech23-13;wCal35-27
22	-	California	6-3	[email protected],@Mary35-27,@USC17-3;wMichSt38-31
18	-	Georgia Tech	6-3	[email protected],Virg24-17,@UNC28-7
25t	-	West Virginia	6-3	[email protected],@ECar24-3,Cincy26-23ot

Slots 11 through 14 are filled by teams who each has 1) Two losses to top ten teams 2) one of which was a major blowout, and 3) at least one win over a top 25 team. Ohio State sits at top for crushing Northwestern, while Georgia now has two (lower rung) top 25 wins. Oklahoma State and TCU lost this week but previously beat the next two teams in line, Missouri and BYU.

#17 North Carolina won their battle with Georgia Tech, while Cincinnati knocked West Virginia off the list. Michigan State rises to fill the void left by Northwestern, Cal, and Maryland, all of whom lost.

LSU falls to #23, staying in despite three losses as all are to top 25 teams; they face Troy next week and will have to prove they still belong here. Idle Tulsa advances as well, while 2-loss teams fill the gaps. FSU is in once again; #20 Air Force hosts BYU next week; Western Michigan defeated Illinois this weekend, and previously lost to #24 Central Michigan. Both teams get a shot at Ball State in the coming weeks.

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - Week 10

The top three teams in the new SportsRatings Top 25 are all undefeated and have one big win. So we did we move Texas Tech to the top? Simple: their big win was by far the biggest of the three. #2 Alabama's big win over Georgia just got a whole lot less impressive over the weekend, and Penn State's doesn't compare either. This also maintains the proper pecking order should these teams go undefeated: the Nittany Lions face one more top 25 foe (Michigan State), while Alabama faces LSU and likely Florida for the SEC title. The Red Raiders have the toughest assignment: Oklahoma State, then Oklahoma, and should they win those, probably Missouri in the Big Twelve Championship game.

The next three teams are all 1-loss Big Twelve teams. #4 Texas beat both #5 Oklahoma and #6 Oklahoma State. Both of the latter will yet play Texas Tech, and then each other, so things could get really complicated, and there is even a possibility that the respresentative from the Big Twelve South could be determined by a coin flip (yes, it's in the tiebreaker rules).

BCS hopeful Utah escaped New Mexico and remained at #7; next week they might not be so lucky, as they face #11 TCU, who would also have an excellent resume for a BCS bowl should they beat the Utes. Not sure whether a win by the Horned Frogs would leap them over #8 USC and #9 Florida, who each have a loss to a non-top 25 foe. The two teams have essentially equal profiles right now: both playing dominant football, with one bizarre loss on their records. Each has a blowout win over a near-top-10 opponent, and a second strong win as well. Florida has two top 25 wins while USC now only has one, but the Gators also lost at home. Boise State patiently rounds out the top 10, still undefeated, but playing a weak schedule save Oregon, while #12 Ball State doesn't even have that.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 10 (11-02-2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Big wins/losses
4	1.	Texas Tech	9-0	wTexas39-33
2	2.	Alabama	9-0	[email protected]
3	3.	Penn State	9-0	[email protected]
1	4.	Texas	8-1	[email protected];w=OK45-35,Mizz56-31,OkSt28-24
5	5.	Oklahoma	8-1	L=Texas45-35;wTCU35-7,Cin52-26
6	6.	Oklahoma St	8-1	[email protected];[email protected]
7	7.	Utah	9-0
8	8.	Southern Cal	7-1	[email protected];wOSU35-3,Oregon44-10
11	9.	Florida	7-1	L Miss31-30;wLSU51-21,=GA49-10
10	10.	Boise State	8-0	[email protected]
12	11.	TCU	9-1	[email protected];wBYU32-7
13	12.	Ball State	8-0
15	13.	Ohio State	7-2	[email protected],PennSt13-6;wMichSt45-7,wMinn34-21
9	14.	Georgia	7-2	L=FLA49-10,Ala41-30;[email protected]
16	15.	Missouri	7-2	L OKst28-23,@Tex56-31
17	16.	Brigham Young	8-1	[email protected]
19	17.	North Carolina	6-2	[email protected],VTech20-17;wConn38-12
	18.	Georgia Tech	6-2	[email protected],Virg24-17;wFSU31-28
24	19.	LSU	6-2	[email protected],Georgia52-38
25	20.	Cincinnati	6-2	[email protected],@OK52-26
	21.	Maryland	6-2	[email protected],@Virg31-0;wCal35-27
	22.	California	6-2	[email protected],@Mary35-27;wMichSt38-31
	23.	Michigan State	8-2	[email protected],OSU45-7;[email protected]
	24.	Northwestern	7-2	[email protected],MichSt37-20;[email protected]
14	25t	Tulsa	8-1	[email protected]
	25t	West Virginia	6-2	[email protected],@ECar24-3;[email protected]
18	--	Minnesota	7-2	[email protected],Nwest24-17
20	--	Florida State	6-2	L Wake12-3,@GTech31-28
23	--	Oregon	6-3	[email protected],BoiseState37-32,@Cal26-16
21	--	Connecticut	6-3	[email protected],WVA35-13,@UNC38-12;wLou26-21
22	--	Louisville	5-3	[email protected],Kentucky27-2,@UConn26-21

#13 Ohio State and #14 Georgia also have very similar résumés: crushed by one top ten team (35-3 to USC, 49-10 to Florida), a loss to a top five team (Penn State, Alabama) and a strong win over a top 25 team (Michigan State, LSU). The Buckeyes win the tiebreaker this week for also beating 7-2 Minnesota. #15 Missouri is probably better than either of those teams despite their struggle with Baylor, but they have no wins over high quality opposition. Their losses, like the Bucks and 'Dogs, are both to top 10 teams.

After #16 BYU—who struggled again this week—comes the weekly avalanche of ACC, Big East, and Big Ten teams. North Carolina was idle and slides up to #17, and Georgia Tech comes back in at #18 after beating former #20 FSU. UNC and Georgia Tech not only share similar profiles, but they've lost to the same teams—Virginia and Virginia Tech—and in the latter case by the exact same score! So who is better? They settle that next week when they play at Chapel Hill.

LSU and Cincinnati move up five spots each, and are followed by a logical chaining of 2-loss teams: #21 Maryland beat #22 California who beat #23 Michigan State who beat #24 Northwestern, who knocked Minnesota out of the top 25. Cal also knocked out Oregon State, who is 6-3 with losses only to top 25 teams. Tulsa falls to #25 after losing to Arkansas, while West Virginia joins them in a tie after knocking out UConn. Another Big East team, Louisville, suffered another embarrassing loss to Syracuse and dropped out.

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - week 9

Barely a move in the top ten; Oklahoma State drops one spot to #6, behind Oklahoma, another team that lost to #1 Texas. The Longhorns have a lock on the top spot, having defeated two top ten teams and another top 20 team. #2 Alabama also has a top ten win, while #3 Penn State picks up their first top 25 victory of the season. The pecking order in the top three is well-established in rank of schedule difficulty. Should #4 Texas Tech, who smothered ex-#22 Kansas 63-21, defeat Texas next week, they'd have a strong claim to the top spot. In the weeks that follow they face both Oklahoma squads, giving them ample opportunity to relinquish it to the Tide.

#7 Utah was idle, #8 USC had another of their brain fart games against Arizona, winning 17-10. #9 Georgia beat LSU Saturday and has a good argument for belonging ahead of USC if they beat #11 Florida next weekend: two top 25 wins vs. a loss to the #2 team. Florida's argument should they win is less valid, as they previously lost to Mississippi, a team toeing the .500 line. At #10, Boise State looks set to finish in the magical BCS top twelve should they win out, but Utah's presence is a complicating factor, as only one top-12 non-BCS conference team is guaranteed a BCS bowl slot.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 9 (10-26-2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Big wins/losses
1	1.	Texas	8-0	w=OK45-35,Mizz56-31,OkSt28-24
2	2.	Alabama	8-0	[email protected]
3	3.	Penn State	9-0	[email protected]
4	4.	Texas Tech	8-0	[email protected]
6	5.	Oklahoma	7-1	L=Tex45-35;wTCU35-7,Cin52-26,KU45-31
5	6.	Oklahoma State	7-1	[email protected];[email protected]
7	7.	Utah	8-0
8	8.	Southern Cal	6-1	[email protected];wOSU35-3,Oregon44-10
9	9.	Georgia	7-1	L Ala41-30;[email protected]
10	10.	Boise State	7-0	[email protected]
12	11.	Florida	6-1	L Miss31-30;wLSU51-21
15	12.	TCU	8-1	[email protected];wBYU32-7
17	13.	Ball State	8-0
19	14.	Tulsa	8-0
11	15.	Ohio State	7-2	[email protected],PennSt13-6;wMinn34-21
21	16.	Missouri	6-2	L OKst28-23,@Tex56-31
20	17.	Brigham Young	7-1	[email protected]
25	18.	Minnesota	7-1	[email protected]
--	19.	North Carolina	6-2	[email protected],VT20-17;wConn38-12,BC45-24
--	20.	Florida State	6-1	L WakeForest12-3
--	21.	Connecticut	6-2	[email protected],@NC38-12;wLou26-21,Cin40-16
--	22.	Louisville	5-2	L Kentucky27-2,@UConn26-21;wUSF24-20
--	23.	Oregon	6-2	[email protected],BoiseState37-32
18	24.	LSU	5-2	[email protected],Georgia52-38
16	25.	Cincinnati	5-2	[email protected],@OK52-26
13	--	Pittsburgh	5-2	L BowlGr27-17,Rut54-34;[email protected]
14	--	South Florida	6-2	L Pitt26-21,@Lou24-20;wKU37-34
23	--	Georgia Tech	6-2	[email protected],VA24-17;[email protected]
24	--	Boston College	5-2	L GTech19-16,@UNC45-24
22	--	Kansas	5-3	[email protected],@OK45-31,TTech63-21

TCU is another non-BCS school hoping for a BCS bowl bid, despite having a loss. Their only blemish is to Oklahoma, and they beat BYU, so if they can add Utah to their prize list they have a decent shot at making it. Undefeateds Ball State and Tulsa will need a bit more help. Tulsa had another big 2nd half against UCF Sunday evening, and unlike the other polls and the BCS, I actually waited for that game to be played before coming out with my week 9 rankings! Now that all the unbeaten teams are in the top 15, here come the highest-ranked 2-loss teams, #15 Ohio State and #16 Missouri. The Buckeyes have a win over Minnesota and losses to the #3 and #8 team; the Tigers have no big wins—and no more top 25 teams on their schedule—but have lost only to the #1 and #6 team, and if they keeping beating teams 58-0 they'll earn their upward moves despite a weaker schedule. Plus, they'll play their way into the Big Twelve championship game, where they might be the ultimate spoiler. They jump over 1-loss BYU, who struggled to beat UNLV.

#18 Minnesota, 1-11 last year and 7-1 this season, moves up seven spots due to a rash of losses in the lower half of the rankings. #20 Florida State, the final 1-loss team, enters at #20. Neither team has an impressive win.

Several teams entered the rankings by knocking out other teams: #19 North Carolina re-enters after beating Boston College, who drops out; Connecticut comes back at #21, knocking Cincinnati down nine spots; #22 Louisville upset #14 South Florida, who fell out because A) they lost, B)their win over Kansas was diminished by Kansas' big loss, and C) the other team that beat them, ex-#13 Pittsburgh, lost their 2nd game to a losing team and dropped out themselves.

The last few teams, #23 Oregon, #24 LSU, and #25 Cincinnati, each has two losses to teams ranked above them. Oregon lost to the highest-rated teams, Cincinnati the lowest. LSU lost to good teams but was soundly defeated both times.

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - week 8

Texas solidified its spot at number one by thrashing Missouri 56-31 Saturday in the 2nd of their 4-game stretch of Top 25 opponents. Right now they are the only undefeated team that has beaten more than one Top 25 foe. Alabama and Penn State hold at #2 and #3; the Tide had a great first half against Mississippi and held on to win 24-20, while the Lions had a great 2nd half to come from behind and beat Michigan 46-17. Two more Big 12 teams round out the top 5, Texas Tech beating A&M 43-25 and Oklahoma State defeating Baylor 34-6. The Red Raiders started the year at #5 and have only advanced one spot despite going 7-0. Next week they have to prove their mettle against Kansas, while Penn State faces Ohio State for their first top 25 challenge. Meanwhile Texas and Oklahoma State clash, so there is much opportunity for a top five shakeup next week.

#6 Oklahoma beat Kansas 45-31 and now holds three wins over top 25 teams, with only one loss to the #1 team. It's criminal that they're behind USC in the coaches' poll. Despite the latter's 69-0 demolition of Washington State they hold at #8, passed by Utah. The Utes are undefeated and beat the team that beat the Trojans, and if both win out I contend that Utah should be ahead of USC in line for the BCS championship game. Georgia and undefeated Boise State round out the top ten. If USC had lost to Oregon, a team that the Broncos beat, instead of Oregon State, then I'd have Boise State ahead of USC instead of Utah.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 8 (10-19-2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/wins vs. Top 25
1	1	Texas	7-0	w=Oklahoma45-35;wMissouri56-31
2	2	Alabama	7-0	[email protected]
3	3	Penn State	8-0
4	4	Texas Tech	7-0
5	5	Oklahoma State	7-0	[email protected]
6	6	Oklahoma	6-1	L=Tex45-35;wCin52-26;wTCU35-7;wKU45-31
10	7	Utah	8-0
8	8	Southern Cal	5-1	[email protected];wOhioSt35-3
9	9	Georgia	6-1	L Ala41-30
11	10	Boise State	6-0
14	11	Ohio State	7-1	[email protected];wMinn34-21;[email protected]
13	12	Florida	5-1	L OleMiss31-30;wLSU51-21
15	13	Pittsburgh	5-1	L BowlingGreen27-17;[email protected]
16	14	South Florida	6-1	L Pitt26-21;wKansas37-34
--	15	TCU	7-1	[email protected];wBYU32-7
18	16	Cincinnati	5-1	[email protected]
19	17	Ball State	7-0
20	18	LSU	5-1	[email protected]
21	19	Tulsa	6-0
7	20	Brigham Young	6-1	[email protected]
12	21	Missouri	5-2	L OklahomaSt28-23;[email protected]
17	22	Kansas	5-2	[email protected];[email protected]
--	23	Georgia Tech	6-1	[email protected];[email protected]
--	24	Boston College	5-1	L GTech19-16;wVTech28-23
--	25	Minnesota	6-1	[email protected]
		out:
22	--	Virginia Tech	5-2	L=EC27-22;[email protected];wGT20-17;[email protected]
23	--	North Carolina	5-2	[email protected];L VTech20-17
24	--	California	4-2	[email protected];[email protected];wMichSt38-31
25	--	Michigan State	6-2	[email protected];L OSU45-7

Ohio State finally showed some life on offense, blitzing ex-#25 Michigan State 45-7 (with the help of the defense on two late fumble returns for TDs). This, along with their earlier win over new #25 Minnesota, allows them to move up for the first time in weeks, jumping #12 Florida. Mississippi fell to a losing record, slightly diminishing the idle Gators, but they still move up a spot. #13 Pittsburgh, who also lost to a losing team, and #14 South Florida both move up two spots.

Texas Christian, whom everyone is referring to as TCU these days (it used to be about 50/50), leaps into the rankings at #15 due to their 32-7 Thursday-night dismantling of former top ten BYU, who is hardly ever called Brigham Young any more. The Cougars drop to #20 as their formerly impressive win over UCLA doesn't look as hot. TCU's strong résumé—a top 25 win and loss to a top ten team—compares favorably even to Georgia, so they have room to advance if they keep winning, and could really leap if they beat Utah in November. Behind them is another team that lost to Oklahoma— #16 Cincinnati—and undefeated Ball State, both of whom were idle. LSU and Tulsa follow; the Tigers still rank low in power ratings, but Tulsa made a bit of a surge with their 77-35 win over UTEP. The Golden Hurricane were tied 28-28 in the first quarter but scored six touchdowns in the next 30 minutes.

The Big Twelve's Missouri and Kansas both suffer their second loss and drop to #21 and #22. Both teams' losses are to top 25 foes, so they stay in the rankings, unlike Virginia Tech, North Carolina, California, and Michigan State. Replacing them are Boston College, who beat the Hokies; Georgia Tech, who formerly lost to the Hokies but also defeated Boston College and now stands 6-1; and Minnesota, whose only loss is to Ohio State.