SportsRatings: College Football

Projected BCS Standings for Sunday, November 6, 2011: Oklahoma State #2, Tide likely fall to #4

Obviously LSU will remain #1 in the BCS standings tonight, but Oklahoma State might be closer than people would expect. LSU beat Alabama, which will help them gain on the Cowboys—or even pass them—in the computer composite, but Oklahoma State will gain a lot in the polls. LSU is at #1 in the polls and will add points but their upside is limited.

Stanford should win a tight race for #3. Alabama's computer ranking might remain above the Cardinal, who only beat 2-7 Oregon State this weekend. The Cardinal will be ahead in the polls but not by that much. Alabama will likely remain ahead of Boise State, though that will be close, too. Positions #3 to #5 are up for grabs essentially.

Oklahoma should remain at #6, and we have Oregon narrowly passing Arkansas. It will be close; neither will gain much in the polls despite decent wins this weekend, and the Ducks have more upside with the computers. Again, it will be tight and Arkansas could very well hold at #7.

Clemson and Virginia Tech should round out the top 10. Once again this week, the Hokies are ahead of the team that beat them in the coaches' poll. But the Harris and computers will keep the Tigers a spot ahead. Neither team played on Saturday.

This Sunday's projected BCS Standings (USA ranking actual; computer composite and Harris projected). Variance is more likely within groupings, which demarcate teams expected to be close in rating.

lw  proj  Team           W   L   Comp   USA  Harris
1     1   LSU            9   0     2     1     1
3     2   Oklahoma St    9   0     1     3     2
4     3   Stanford       9   0     7     2     3
2     4   Alabama        8   1     4     4     4
5     5   Boise St       8   0     3     5     5
6     6   Oklahoma       8   1     5     7     7
8     7   Oregon         8   1     9     6     6
7     8   Arkansas       8   1     6     8     8
11    9   Clemson        8   1     8    10     9
12   10   Virginia Tech  8   1    10     9    10
16   11   Penn State     8   1    12    12    12
13   12   Houston        9   0    15    11    11
9    13   S. Carolina    7   2    13    15    15
18   14   Georgia        7   2    16    16    14
17   15   Michigan St    7   2    22    13    13

Penn State jumps to #11 in our projection, which might be a notch too high. Alabama's loss hurts them a little bit, but Iowa's upset of Michigan and Northwestern's upset of Nebraska should overcome that and help them in the computer rankings. Houston may be #11 if they are far enough ahead in the human polls.

South Carolina shouldn't fall too far, maybe to #13, for losing to Arkansas. Ideally they'd remain ahead of Georgia, whom they beat, and that seems to be the case. They fell behind the Bulldogs in the AP poll, so who knows what the Harris voters will do. The coaches have the Gamecocks ahead and it appears the computers will, too. Michigan State should complete the top 15; their computer ranking probably takes a hit with Nebraska and Michigan's losses, just as Penn State benefits. So Texas could slip into the #15 spot instead.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - week 9: Badgers Still Alive for At-large

Here we project the final 2011 BCS Standings using our "fuzzy logic" win counter, with a power rating designed to work based on partial victories and defeats. We use our pre-season rankings as a starting point and actual results are added each week. This week's current BCS ranking is in the column at the far right; our projection is for where the teams will stand on Sunday, December 4th.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - thru week 9 (10/29/2011)

lw	proj	Team	Proj W	Proj L	BCS Bowl	W	L	BCS rank
1	1	Alabama	12.0	1.0	BCS Title	8	0	2
2	2	Oklahoma St	11.1	0.9	BCS Title	8	0	3
3	3	LSU	10.7	1.3	Sugar	8	0	1
5	4	Oklahoma	10.1	1.9	Fiesta	7	1	6
4	5	Boise St	11.4	0.6	Fiesta	7	0	5
10	6	Stanford	11.8	1.2	Rose	8	0	4
7	7	South Carolina	10.3	2.7		7	1	9
9	8	Arkansas	9.3	2.7		7	1	7
8	9	Oregon	10.3	1.7		7	1	8
13	10	Virginia Tech	11.0	2.0	Orange	8	1	12
6	11	Clemson	9.9	3.1		8	1	11
15	12	Nebraska	10.5	2.6	Rose	7	1	10
12	13	Wisconsin	9.4	2.6	Sugar	6	2	20
11	14	Kansas St	8.3	3.8		7	1	14
17	15	Auburn	7.7	4.3		6	3	22
19	16	Georgia	9.0	3.0		6	2	18
14	17	Texas A&M	8.0	4.1		5	3	--
20	18	Penn State	9.1	3.9		8	1	16
16	19	Michigan St	8.8	3.2		6	2	17
22	20	Michigan	8.4	3.7		7	1	15
23	21	Ohio State	8.4	3.6		5	3	--
21	22	Texas	7.6	4.5		5	2	21
24	23	Houston	10.4	1.6		8	0	13
--	24	Georgia Tech	7.9	4.1		7	2	23
25	25	Arizona St	8.3	4.7		6	2	19

This projection yields the following likely BCS Bowl pairups (changes from last week in bold):

BCS Championship Game:	Alabama vs. Oklahoma State
Rose Bowl:	Nebraska vs. Stanford
Fiesta Bowl:	Oklahoma vs. Boise State
Sugar Bowl:	LSU vs. Wisconsin
Orange Bowl:	Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati

Wisconsin's 2nd straight loss drops them out of the lead in the Leaders division, meaning they're not expected to go to the Rose Bowl for the first time since the season started. It also impacted their chance to go to a BCS bowl, period. But it didn't kill their chances; there are a number of scenarios by which they can get back in the mix. All of these include winning out, which would give them a victory over Penn State; then, whether the Nittany Lions or Nebraska wins the Big Ten title game, Wisconsin could finish in the top 14, ahead of the loser of that game. The 2nd place Big Ten team is always a good bet for a BCS bowl.

Though the Badgers are on the edge as far as finishing #13 in our projection, if they make the top 14 they stand a good chance of being picked. The team travels well, for one thing, and as we've mentioned before there aren't a lot of options for the bowls this year as SEC and Big Twelve teams are going to crowd the top 14, leaving several out of luck due to the 2-team-per-conference limit.

The scenario for the Badgers is: the Fiesta Bowl, having Oklahoma and not being able to pick South Carolina, Arkansas, or Kansas State. Their choices will be Boise State, Oregon, Clemson, Wisconsin, or Cincinnati. Clemson and Cincy are unlikely; Wisconsin could be picked here, but it would be hard to justify since they'll probably be outside the top ten. Coming down to Oregon or Boise State, it could be either team but if Boise is undefeated (as expected) and Oregon has 2 losses (which they will if Stanford is in the Rose Bowl), a rematch of the 2006 game isn't a bad pick.

That would leave the Sugar Bowl—armed with LSU—to choose between the remaining four teams. Oregon would be the strongest pick but the Tigers already beat the Ducks, which makes the Wisconsin pick justifiable. The SEC and Big Ten have a lot of tie-ins making this one a natural. Cincinnati would be left for the Orange.

If the Fiesta Bowl picked Oregon instead of Boise, then Wisconsin would be left out since Boise State and Cincinnati both are required picks; the Sugar would take the Broncos in that case. And naturally the Badgers have to work their way back into the top 14, not an easy task even if they win out.

The other changes in the projected pairings came from Stanford again flipping with Oregon in terms of the Pac-12 projected winner; this won't be settled until the two teams play. Also, Clemson's loss dropped them ever-so-slightly below Virginia Tech; the two are also on a collision course for the ACC title. Nebraska's win over Michigan State put them on top in the Legends division, and they come out slightly ahead of Penn State for the Big Ten title and thus the Rose Bowl.

Note also that Oklahoma, who only fell to 5th last week despite a surprise loss, moves ahead of Boise State. This means that once again, it appears that the national championship will be between the winners of LSU-Alabama and Oklahoma-Oklahoma State. Stanford also gains on the Broncos, and in fact passed them in the current BCS standings; they're lower here because of the big hurdle (Oregon) they face. Boise has been helped by Georgia's continued win streak. The Bulldogs are knocking on the door of BCS bowl eligibility themselves, but as the 5th-ranked SEC team they'd need an upset win in the SEC title game to get there.

Projected BCS Standings for Sunday October 30, 2011

No surprise that LSU and Alabama, who were idle this weekend before their showdown next Saturday, should remain #1 in the BCS standings. Oklahoma State will remain #3, but after that it's a bit foggy.

Stanford might pass Boise State for #4. The Cardinal will rise in the computers for beating USC, regardless of how close the game was. They're already ahead in the human polls. Oklahoma should be #6 after beating 1-loss Kansas State.

Oregon and Arkansas won't make much progress with the computers, and may even slide a notch, for their wins this week. Most of their previous opponents lost during the weekend, which didn't help. But Oregon should remain #7, and Arkansas move up to #8 as Clemson and Kansas State fall.

This Sunday's projected BCS Standings (USA ranking actual; computer composite and Harris projected)

lw   proj   Team         W   L   Comp   USA  Harris
1     1     LSU          8   0     3     1     1
2     2     Alabama      8   0     2     2     2
3     3     Oklahoma St  8   0     1     4     3
6     4     Stanford     8   0     6     3     4
4     5     Boise St     7   0     5     5     5
9     6     Oklahoma     7   1     4     7     7
7     7     Oregon       7   1    13     6     6
10    8     Arkansas     7   1     9     8     8
14    9     Nebraska     7   1    10     9     9
5     10    Clemson      8   1     7    12    11
12    11    V. Tech      8   1     8    11    12
13    12    S. Carolina  7   1    12    10    10
17    13    Houston      8   0    14    14    14
18    14    Michigan     7   1    19    13    13
8     15    Kansas St    7   1    11    19    17

Nebraska could be as high as #9 but their computer ranking is uncertain; they should place somewhere within the 9 to 12 band above. Virginia Tech is inexplicably ahead of Clemson (who beat them 23-3) in the USA/Coaches poll, something the Harris voters hopefully don't replicate, but most of the computers should have Clemson ahead. South Carolina should move up a small amount.

Houston and Michigan round out the magic top 14, which is a required placement for at-large BCS bowl bids. Kansas State should still be near the top 10 in the computer composite as the computers don't know they lost 58-17, but the pollsters know and have dropped the Wildcats to #19 in the USA. Penn State might take the #15 spot from Kansas State but after that the dropoff is pretty steep. Two Big Ten teams, Michigan State and Wisconsin, will fall out of the top 15.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - week 8: Oklahoma loss changes everything

Here we project the final 2011 BCS Standings using our "fuzzy logic" win counter, with a power rating designed to work based on partial victories and defeats. We use our pre-season rankings as a starting point and actual results are added each week. This week's current BCS ranking is in the column at the far right; our projection is for where the teams will stand on Sunday, December 4th.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - thru week 8 (10/22/2011)

lw	proj	Team	Proj W	Proj L	BCS Bowl	W	L	BCS rank
1	1	Alabama	12.0	1.0	BCS Title	8	0	2
4	2	Oklahoma St	11.0	1.0	BCS Title	7	0	3
3	3	LSU	10.7	1.3	Sugar	8	0	1
6	4	Boise St	11.4	0.6	Fiesta	7	0	4
2	5	Oklahoma	9.9	2.1	Fiesta	6	1	9
8	6	Clemson	10.6	2.4	Orange	8	0	5
9	7	South Carolina	10.1	2.9		6	1	13
11	8	Oregon	11.2	1.8	Rose	6	1	7
10	9	Arkansas	9.2	2.8		6	1	10
7	10	Stanford	10.7	1.3	Sugar	7	0	6
15	11	Kansas St	8.4	3.6		7	0	8
5	12	Wisconsin	10.7	2.3	Rose	6	1	15
12	13	Virginia Tech	10.8	2.2		7	1	12
13	14	Texas A&M	8.6	3.4		5	2	16
14	15	Nebraska	9.7	3.3		6	1	14
17	16	Michigan St	9.2	2.8		6	1	11
16	17	Auburn	7.6	4.4		5	3	23
--	18	Texas Tech	6.6	5.4		5	2	20
21	19	Georgia	8.5	3.5		5	2	22
--	20	Penn State	8.2	3.8		7	1	19
--	21	Texas	7.5	4.5		4	2	24
20	22	Michigan	8.1	3.9		6	1	18
19	23	Ohio State	7.9	4.1		4	3	--
24	24	Houston	10.3	1.7		7	0	17
--	25	Arizona St	8.2	4.8		5	2	21

This projection yields the following likely BCS Bowl pairups (changes from last week in bold):

BCS Championship Game:	Alabama vs. Oklahoma State
Rose Bowl:	Wisconsin vs. Oregon
Fiesta Bowl:	Oklahoma vs. Boise State
Sugar Bowl:	LSU vs. Stanford
Orange Bowl:	Clemson vs. Cincinnati

Two big upsets of top teams, but only one has much effect. Wisconsin lost to Michigan State but remains Rose Bowl bound in our projection; meanwhile Oklahoma's loss throws everything topsy-turvy.

The Sooners ranked #2 and were favored every step of the way, and expected (in a fuzzy logic sense) to finish with about 1 loss. But a hypothetical loss is one thing; a real one knocks you down in both the polls and in the computers. Losing to Texas Tech, who is expected to be good but not great, also didn't do the Sooners any favors. Oklahoma falls to #5 in our projection, still good enough for #2 in the Big Twelve and a Fiesta Bowl berth.

But the top team in the Big Twelve should still go to the BCS Championship, and that team is now expected to be Oklahoma State. The Cowboys move up from #4 to #2, aided by a strong #3 ranking in the current BCS. They, too, are technically expected to have a cumulative "loss" but then again, so is every team (though Boise State is getting close to officially being favored to go undefeated). Of course, the head-to-head game between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State would decide the Big Twelve winner should they both go undefeated until then. Our projections are based on the odds of winning each game, and things look better for Oklahoma State to finish with a better record and stronger BCS ranking than everyone except Alabama. If the Sooners can win out, however, they'll be in as good a position as anyone to be in the title game.

LSU remains #3, reflecting their current position, the liklihood that they won't beat Alabama, and the possibility that they could (which would put them at #1); they're picked for the Sugar Bowl as Alabama's replacement. Boise State moves up to #4 as both the Sooners and the Badgers drop below them. The big help was Wisconsin's loss, as a 1-loss Oklahoma could still pass the Broncos.

Clemson moves up to #6 and is the ACC pick, putting them in the Orange Bowl, while South Carolina is expected to finish all the way up at #7. Being the #3 SEC team precludes their participation in a BCS bowl however. That, and without Marcus Lattimore, this projection is probably more than a bit optimistic. But we'll see.

Oregon has won enough now to reclaim our Pac-12 championship designation. Since we don't pick head-to-head winners in the regular season games, just the percentages, we use the highest finish in our projection as the conference winner, so Oregon gets the extra game against Arizona State. That, and Notre Dame's loss, bump Stanford down to #10 despite their rise to #6 in the current BCS standings.

Every single BCS bowl is affected. As we mentioned, Alabama now faces Oklahoma State in the national title game; Wisconsin takes on Oregon in the Rose Bowl. The Fiesta Bowl now has Oklahoma instead of Oklahoma state, and they have first pick for a 2nd team. Their choices are few, as we have noted before. South Carolina, Arkansas, Kansas State, and Texas A&M are ruled out by the 2-per-conference rule. That leaves Boise State, Stanford, Virginia Tech, and new Big East favorite Cincinnati as the Fiesta choice. Under these conditions, a rematch of the classic 2006 game might be the best bet for the bowl committee.

The Sugar Bowl, already armed with LSU, would probably opt for Stanford, though Virginia Tech would be considered. That leaves Clemson vs. Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl.

Projected BCS Standings for Sunday, October 23: #1 LSU, #2 Alabama, #3 Oklahoma State

This evening's projected BCS Standings hold no surprises at the very top, as LSU should greatly increase their hold on the #1 spot from last week's 3/10,000th point lead.

The Tigers garnered the majority of the 31 1st place votes that Oklahoma disgorged in the USA Today poll due to their loss to Texas Tech. LSU also will get more of a boost in the computers for beating 5-3 Auburn than Alabama will for defeating 3-5 Tennessee. In all, the Tigers should be a clear #1 this week, with Alabama a very solid #2.

Replacing Oklahoma at #3 will be Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are roughly equal to Stanford in the polls but will hold a substantial computer edge. Likewise, Clemson may match Oklahoma State in the computers but will be behind in the polls. The battle for #4 between Stanford, Boise State, and Clemson will be tight but we give it to Stanford as their win impressed the voters most. Boise State is very tight with Clemson; they could hold their spot in front of Stanford and Clemson but due to their narrow win over Air Force they didn't gain as much in the polls, and both the Tigers and Cardinal beat teams with winning records.

Here are our projected BCS standings for Sunday, October 23. *We use the current AP as a projection of the Harris as the two correlate well. Underlined partitions show significant breaks in ranking scores.

lw  proj  Team         W    L   Comp    USA   Harris*
1     1   LSU          8    0     2      1       1
2     2   Alabama      8    0     1      2       2
4     3   Oklahoma St  7    0     3      4       3
8     4   Stanford     7    0     7      3       4
5    5t   Boise St     7    0     6      5       5
7    5t   Clemson      8    0     4      6       6
9     7   Arkansas     6    1     8      8       8
10    8   Oregon       6    1    11      7       7
11    9   Kansas St    7    0     5     12      10
16   10t  Michigan St  6    1    13     10       9
3    10t  Oklahoma     6    1    12      9      11
6    12   Wisconsin    6    1    15     11      12
12   13   Virg. Tech   7    1    10     15      15
13   14   Nebraska     6    1    17     13      13
19   15   Houston      7    0     9     18      18

There should be a sizeable gap between #6 and #7, whoever they are. But #7 through #10 are all very tight. We have Arkansas at #7, and Oregon the edge for #8 over Kansas State since they led last week. But all three spots are close. Michigan State was ranked very poorly by the computers last week; their win over Wisconsin will fix that somewhat but they may be below this range as our computer ranking estimate might be high.

Another gap separates the top 11 from the rest of the field. At #11 and #12 we see the week's big losers, Oklahoma and Wisconsin. The Sooners fall from the #3 spot all the way to #10 or #11 (we give the spot to the Spartans narrowly), while the Badgers drop to #12. Both will rank worse with the computers than the pollsters, though Oklahoma will fare better than the Badgers who already had a low computer composite last week. Michigan State's ascendance should push Virginia Tech and Nebraska down a notch, and with last week's #14 South Carolina idle and not advancing much in the polls, Houston might sneak in at #15.

 

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - Week 7: No change in bowls after BCS rankings unveiled

Here we project the final 2011 BCS Standings using our "fuzzy logic" win counter, with a power rating designed to work based on partial victories and defeats. We use our pre-season rankings as a starting point and actual results are added each week. This week's current BCS ranking is in the column at the far right; our projection is for where the teams will stand on Sunday, December 4th.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - thru week 7 (10/15/2011)

lw	proj	Team	Proj W	Proj L	BCS Bowl	W	L	BCS rank
1	1	Alabama	12.0	1.0	BCS Title	7	0	2
2	2	Oklahoma	10.9	1.1	BCS Title	6	0	3
3	3	LSU	10.4	1.6	Sugar	7	0	1
4	4	Oklahoma St	10.6	1.4	Fiesta	6	0	4
6	5	Wisconsin	11.3	1.7	Rose	6	0	6
5	6	Boise St	11.2	0.8	Sugar	6	0	5
7	7	Stanford	11.5	1.5	Rose	6	0	8
11	8	Clemson	10.2	2.8	Orange	7	0	7
8	9	South Carolina	10.1	2.9		6	1	14
9	10	Arkansas	9.0	3.0		5	1	9
10	11	Oregon	10.2	1.8		5	1	10
12	12	Virginia Tech	10.6	2.4		6	1	12
16	13	Texas A&M	8.5	3.5		4	2	17
14	14	Nebraska	9.6	3.4	Fiesta	5	1	13
19	15	Kansas St	8.2	3.8		6	0	11
17	16	Auburn	7.9	4.1		5	2	20
25	17	Michigan St	8.4	3.6		5	1	16
13	18	Illinois	9.0	3.0		6	1	23
--	19	Ohio State	7.9	4.1		4	3	--
15	20	Michigan	8.1	3.9		6	1	18
21	21	Georgia	8.5	3.5		5	2	--
23	22	West Virginia	8.8	3.2	Orange	5	1	15
24	23	Missouri	7.1	4.9		3	3	--
--	24	Houston	10.2	1.8		6	0	19
22	25	Notre Dame	8.2	3.8		4	2	--

This projection yields the following likely BCS Bowl pairups (changes from last week in bold):

BCS Championship Game:	Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Rose Bowl:	Wisconsin vs. Stanford
Fiesta Bowl:	Oklahoma State vs. Nebraska
Sugar Bowl:	LSU vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl:	Clemson vs. West Virginia

The first actual BCS rankings came out last Monday and the top four there is the top four here. But the more likely winners of the Alabama-LSU and Oklahoma-Oklahoma State matchups are projected to finish #1 and #2, while the losers are relegated to the Sugar and Fiesta bowls. As last week, Wisconsin and Stanford are paired in the Rose Bowl, Clemson and West Virginia in the Orange, and Boise State goes to the Sugar. And rounding off the pairings that are exactly the same as they were last week, Nebraska holds at #14 to again nab a Fiesta Bowl invite that would otherwise be Oregon's.

What little changed this week was of little real consequence. Whether Clemson is behind or ahead of South Carolina, Arkansas, and Oregon doesn't matter if they win the ACC. And the upward movement of Texas A&M into projected BCS eligibility matters little if they're #3 in the Big Twelve conference. Nebraska's ranking was in line with where we expected, and Oregon fell to #11, which gives the Cornhuskers more of an argument for being included in the bowl picks.

The bigger changes occurred in the lower half of the chart. Kansas State neared projected BCS eligibility, though it hardly matters if they pierce the top 14 while remaining #4 in the conference. Their #15 takes into account opportunity—they absolutely control their own destiny for the Fiesta Bowl, and maybe even for the national title—and chance of collapse, which could put them at 8-4 and near the bottom, or out of, the rankings. After this weekend, their schedule takes a tough turn. Missouri at 3-3 is also in the rankings due to potential for big wins, but as they're expected to lose those games they aren't ranked very high and already have 3 losses.

Also moving up big is Michigan State. By sealing up the Michigan win, the Spartans become a slight favorite in their division. Ohio State's win over Illinois helped them, too, as MSU beat OSU three weeks ago and the Spartans and Illini don't play. Speaking of the Buckeyes, they have a rejuvinated projection despite being 4-3 currently (Miami's win over North Carolina helped), and join the middle of a Big Ten-rich pack from #17 to #20 as Illinois and Michigan slide.

Not much else is different. Houston peeks in at #24, but only winning out would put them in the top 14, and the expected one or two losses keep them well out of BCS contention. Even a 13-0 Houston is behind a 12-0 Boise State, and the latter is more likely. We don't place them in the CUSA title game yet, either, though it doesn't change their projected ranking if they make it there.

Notre Dame didn't get the small support from the computers we thought they might have so they've been re-evaluated downward. They still have a great shot at a BCS bowl if they win out; anything else and they fall short.

Actual BCS Standings for Sunday, October 16, 2011: LSU a slight surprise at #1

The biggest surprise in the initial BCS standings for 2011 is right at the top. Instead of Alabama narrowly leading LSU and Oklahoma, the Tigers are #1 and Alabama is #2. The difference was truly miniscule; LSU's average was .9522 to Alabama's .9519

LSU's rise to the top was mainly because of their big lead at #1 in the Harris poll, which released its first poll along with the BCS standings. We expected the Tigers to be #1 but thought it would be a very tight race; instead, there was plenty of distance between LSU (2819 points) and Alabama (2744) in the Harris poll, with Oklahoma an equally distant third (2684).

Actual BCS Standings for October 16, 2011

BCS  proj   Team         W    L    
1     2t    LSU          7    0    
2     1     Alabama      7    0     
3     2t    Oklahoma     6    0     
4     4     Oklahoma St  6    0     
5     8     Boise St     6    0     
6     5     Wisconsin    6    0     
7     6t    Clemson      7    0     
8     6t    Stanford     6    0     
9     9     Arkansas     5    1     
10    10    Oregon       5    1     
11    13    Kansas St    6    0     
12    14    Virg. Tech   6    1     
13    11    Nebraska     5    1     
14    15    S. Carolina  6    1     
15    --    W. Virginia  5    1 

Other surprises (for us) included Boise State's #5 ranking; we had the Broncos anywhere from #6 to #8, with the latter most likely. Whereas they are #7 in the USA/coaches poll, Boise State ended up #5 in the Harris poll, and that vaulted them over the three teams (Wisconsin, Clemson, and Stanford) that we placed in front of them.

Near the bottom of the top 15, Nebraska's computer composite was lower than we expected and they ended up #13 overall, while Michigan State didn't make the cut (they weren't in the top 25 in two of the computer rankings) finishing at #16. Instead, West Virginia rounded out the top 15.

One interesting point is that Oklahoma State is #1 in the computer composite. We knew they'd be up there, but had them #2 behind Alabama. I'm sure many people are wondering how the Cowboys could rank above the Tide, or even ahead of LSU (who was #3). They did beat Texas A&M, which is probably their best win, as well as 4-2 Texas, but a big reason they're #1 is because of Louisiana-Lafayette! The Ragin' Cajuns are now 6-1, and that's a source of points most people will overlook when rating the Cowboys. Alabama edges LSU with the computers because Arkansas is a better "skin" than Oregon to the computers, since Oregon hasn't played much of anyone. Remember, the computers see only wins and losses, not score margin.

Projected BCS Standings for Sunday, October 16, 2011: Alabama #1, LSU and Oklahoma tight for #2

When the first BCS standings are announced this evening, look for the Alabama Crimson Tide to be in the #1 position, with a very narrow lead over Oklahoma and LSU, who are essentially tied for #2.

Forecast after release of USA/coaches poll:

Not much changed after the release of the USA poll from our pre-poll projection. LSU didn't gain that much ground on Oklahoma, who remained #1. But we list LSU ahead of the Sooners because they're likely to be ahead in the initial Harris poll which hasn't been released yet. The top three teams are far ahead of the rest of the pack.

Oklahoma State now ranks ahead of Wisconsin since they moved up in the USA poll, but these teams should be very close and in either order. The next "rung" is Clemson, Stanford, and Boise State; Clemson slipped into a tie for 8th in the USA while Boise was passed by Oklahoma State; our projected ordering of these teams doesn't change but the Stanford-Boise tie is now a Clemson-Stanford tie. We still list Clemson ahead as they should be closer to Stanford in the Harris poll than they are in the coaches' poll.

Our projected BCS ranking for Sunday, October 16:

rnk    Team        W    L   Comp  Polls
1     Alabama      7    0     1     3
2t    LSU          7    0     4     2
2t    Oklahoma     6    0     6     1
4     Oklahoma St  6    0     2     6
5     Wisconsin    6    0     7     4
6t    Clemson      7    0     3     8t
6t    Stanford     6    0    10     5
8     Boise St     6    0     8     7
9     Arkansas     5    1    11    10
10    Oregon       5    1    16     8t
11    Nebraska     5    1    12    11
12    Michigan St  5    1     9    13
13    Kansas St    6    0     5    16
14    Virg. Tech   6    1    15    14t
15    S. Carolina  6    1    23    12
16    Michigan     6    1    14    17

Teams with the "bands" could be in any order potentially, and teams listed in a tie are extremely close. But teams in a higher "band" should be ahead of those in a lower grouping, unless the Harris poll has major differences from the USA/coaches poll.

Arkansas and Oregon should be #9 and #10 as we projected earlier (see below). But we've moved Nebraska and Michigan State ahead of Kansas State after the poll release. The Wildcats didn't move up much, probably due to their narrow win. Idle Nebraska moved up more spots, and the Spartans jumped past Kansas State in the USA poll. The spots from #9 to #13 are all pretty tight but this is the order we foresee for tonight's announcement.

We still see Virginia Tech and South Carolina rounding out the top 15, though Michigan might take the final slot instead of the Gamecocks.

Forecast prior to USA/coaches poll availability:

Alabama should be #1 in the computer composite and no lower than the #3 ranking in the USA/coaches poll that they had last week. The Harris poll should correspond pretty well to the USA poll. The #2 BCS ranking will go to either LSU or Oklahoma, depending on whether Oklahoma loses support from their previous #1 USA poll ranking. We list LSU #2 since Oklahoma's performance against Kansas wasn't great, and LSU may be ahead of the Sooners in the Harris poll as they are in the AP poll. Remember, each poll (USA, Harris) counts as much as the computer composite (each is 1/3 of the total).

rnk    Team        W    L   Comp  Polls
1     Alabama      7    0     1     3
2t    LSU          7    0     4     2
2t    Oklahoma     6    0     6     1
4     Wisconsin    6    0     7     4
5     Oklahoma St  6    0     2     7
6     Clemson      7    0     3     8
7t    Stanford     6    0    10     5
7t    Boise St     6    0     8     6
9     Arkansas     5    1    11    10
10    Oregon       5    1    16     9
11    Kansas St    6    0     5    15
12    Nebraska     5    1    12    12
13    Michigan St  5    1     9    16
14    Virg. Tech   6    1    15    14
15    S. Carolina  6    1    23    11

The Tide should end up with a very narrow lead over LSU and Oklahoma, with Wisconsin quite a way behind in 4th place. Oklahoma State might take 4th place as the distance between the Badgers and Cowboys should be minimal, and the latter could be in 2nd place in the computer composite whereas Wisconsin's rank won't be great with their weak schedule.

Clemson, Stanford, and Boise State could be in any order from 6th to 8th. Clemson's rank with the computers will be much better than the other two which should give them the slight edge despite being slightly lower-ranked in the polls. The difference between the Broncos and the Cardinal is too close to call before seeing the updated USA poll.

There's a huge gap between whoever is #8, and #9 Arkansas, the highest-rated team with a loss. Oregon should take the #10 spot, bogged down by a low computer rating. Kansas State's poll ranking is low while their computer ranking will be fairly high. They'll be very close to Oregon, and maybe just a hair ahead of #12 Nebraska. The remaining three teams—Michigan State, Virginia Tech, and South Carolina—could move around if our projected polls rankings for them are different.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - Week 6: Here Comes the Big Ten

Here we project the final 2011 BCS Standings using our "fuzzy logic" win counter, with a power rating designed to work based on partial victories and defeats. We use our pre-season rankings as a starting point and actual results are added each week.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - Week 6 (10/8/2011)

lw	proj	Team	Proj W	Proj L	BCS Bowl	W	L	USA rank
1	1	Alabama	11.86	1.14	BCS Title	6	0	3
2	2	Oklahoma	10.87	1.13	BCS Title	5	0	1
3	3	LSU	10.14	1.86	Sugar	6	0	2
4	4	Oklahoma St	10.26	1.74	Fiesta	5	0	7
5	5	Boise St	11.22	0.78	Sugar	5	0	6
6	6	Wisconsin	11.31	1.69	Rose	5	0	4
7	7	Stanford	11.40	1.60	Rose	5	0	5
9	8	South Carolina	9.71	3.29		5	1	13
10	9	Arkansas	9.04	2.96		5	1	11
8	10	Oregon	10.13	1.87		4	1	9
11	11	Clemson	9.75	3.25	Orange	6	0	8
15	12	Virginia Tech	10.40	2.60		5	1	17
16	13	Illinois	9.39	2.61		6	0	15
19	14	Nebraska	9.55	3.45	Fiesta	5	1	14
20	15	Michigan	8.43	3.57		6	0	10
13	16	Texas A&M	8.44	3.56		3	2	23
14	17	Auburn	7.45	4.55		4	2	--
12	18	Texas	7.78	4.22		4	1	21
25	19	Kansas St	7.64	4.36		5	0	18
22	20	Georgia Tech	7.90	4.10		6	0	12
--	21	Georgia	8.21	3.79		4	2	--
24	22	Notre Dame	8.20	3.80		4	2	--
--	23	West Virginia	8.84	3.16	Orange	5	1	16
18	24	Missouri	6.95	5.05		2	3	--
--	25	Michigan St	8.08	3.92		4	1	19

This projection yields the following likely BCS Bowl pairups (changes from last week in bold):

BCS Championship Game:	Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Rose Bowl:	Stanford vs. Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl:	Oklahoma State vs. Nebraska
Sugar Bowl:	LSU vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl:	Clemson vs. West Virginia

Same story as last week, with the SEC and Big Twelve favorites expected in the BCS Championship game, and the runner-ups in those conferences waiting in line in case they can pull of the upset. The Big Ten and Pac-10 favorites in the Rose Bowl, naturally, and the ACC and Big East favorites in the Orange.

The one change in the projected bowl pairings is due to the rise of Nebraska after their comeback win over Ohio State. Despite losing to Wisconsin badly two weeks ago, they're 5-1 and their path, while not exactly clear, gives them a good shot at winning the Big Ten Legends division and finishing in the top 14, making them eligible for a BCS bowl.

Based on this finish, the Fiesta chooses their 2nd team, they'll pick between Boise State, Oregon, Virginia Tech, Illinois, Nebraska, and West Virginia. South Carolina and Arkansas aren't eligible due to the 2-team-per-conference limit. The Virginia teams are a bad pick distance-wise and aren't high rated in the standings. Boise and Oregon make more sense regionally, but Boise won't create much interest. Of the Big Ten teams, Nebraska will travel much better than Illinois. So it would come down to Oregon and Nebraska, and matching the Cornhuskers against their old Big Twelve foe is probably what the Fiesta Bowl would want.

But Nebraska is a borderline qualifier in this scenario; Michigan is right behind them and could win the division as well, and they'd make a great selection too. Along with Illinois that's three Big Ten teams that have increased their stock this week, and all three have met or exceeded expectations so far. Illinois is 6-0 and for most, that's a surprise; we picked the Illini to start 6-0 but actually getting there puts them in position to argue for a BCS berth. The road ahead gets tougher though with games against Michigan and Wisconsin. The Wolverines are undefeated but they face some tests ahead, too (Michigan State, Illinois, Nebraska, even Ohio State). 5-1 Nebraska plays Michigan and Michigan State. The Spartans poke into the rankings, too, but they play Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska in the next three weeks, at which time we'll probably be able to make a pretty good judgement of where they stand.

By the end of the season one of these teams will almost certainly be in the top 14, and since the Big Ten has sent two teams to BCS bowls every year since the BCS' inception, don't bet against the conference's #2 squad making the cut. How the Big Ten's first conference championship game affects matters is unknown; with Wisconsin looking pretty dominant, it might be better to finish #2 in the Legends division than take a late-season loss to the Badgers.

Despite the Big Ten's surge, the standings are all about the SEC and Big Twelve and will remain so. Even as Texas A&M, Auburn, and Texas slide out of BCS bowl territory (for now), undefeated Kansas State makes a decent move up and Georgia is not completely out of the picture yet; both won important games last week. In all 12 of the 25 teams are from those two conferences (6 SEC, 6 Big Twelve), with 5 from the Big Ten, 3 from the ACC, 2 Pac-12, 1 Big East, and 2 other (Boise State and Notre Dame).

Next week the first BCS standings come out, and we'll switch from using the USA/Coaches poll to integrating the current BCS placement, before projecting forward with our fuzzy future game results.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - Week 5: Orange Bowl changes again

Here we project the final 2011 BCS Standings using our "fuzzy logic" win counter, with a power rating designed to work based on partial victories and defeats. We use our pre-season rankings as a starting point and actual results are added each week.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - Week 5 (10/1/2011)

lw	proj	Team	Proj W	Proj L	BCS Bowl	W	L	USA rank
2	1	Alabama	11.84	1.16	BCS Title	5	0	3
1	2	Oklahoma	10.71	1.29	BCS Title	4	0	1
3	3	LSU	9.83	2.17	Sugar	5	0	2
4	4	Oklahoma St	10.25	1.75	Fiesta	4	0	7
6	5	Boise St	11.15	0.85	Sugar	4	0	6
8	6	Wisconsin	11.41	1.59	Rose	5	0	5
7	7	Stanford	11.38	1.62	Rose	4	0	4
10	8	Oregon	10.02	1.98	Fiesta	3	1	9
5	9	South Carolina	9.59	3.41		4	1	14
12	10	Arkansas	8.69	3.31		4	1	12
19	11	Clemson	9.39	3.61	Orange	5	0	8
13	12	Texas	7.94	4.06		4	0	10
9	13	Texas A&M	8.30	3.70		2	2	25
23	14	Auburn	7.80	4.20		4	1	23
14	15	Virginia Tech	10.10	2.90		4	1	17
21	16	Illinois	9.27	2.73		5	0	16
11	17	Florida	7.77	4.23		4	1	18
16	18	Missouri	7.67	4.33		2	2	--
15	19	Nebraska	8.70	3.30		4	1	15
25	20	Michigan	8.00	4.00		5	0	11
18	21	Florida St	9.02	2.98		2	2	22
--	22	Georgia Tech	7.31	4.69		5	0	13
20	23	Ohio State	8.01	3.99		3	2	--
--	24	Notre Dame	7.93	4.07		3	2	--
--	25	Kansas St	6.92	5.08		4	0	21

This projection yields the following likely BCS Bowl pairups (changes from last week in bold):

BCS Championship Game:	Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Rose Bowl:	Stanford vs. Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl:	Oklahoma State vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl:	LSU vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl:	Clemson vs. West Virginia (#26)

Once again the Orange Bowl projection changes due to upsets, and again Clemson is responsible for most of it. The Tigers beat Virginia Tech and now, holding wins over the two previous favorites, become the favorite themselves. South Florida's loss to Pittsburgh wasn't a big upset but dropped them out of the polls, and now no Big East teams make the projected year-end top 25. The actual conference race is still wide open with Pittsburgh being our favorite, but West Virginia is the highest-rated in our projection so we use them as the Orange Bowl opponent for Clemson.

And again, all of the eligible teams are taken; nine of the top 14 are in BCS bowls, and the five others are crowded out by the two-teams-per-confernence rule. The only team new to the top 14 is Auburn, and they are fifth in line in the SEC. The Big Twelve has four teams in the top 14.

Alabama takes over the top spot from Oklahoma due to beating Florida while the Sooners already had almost full credit for beating Ball State. With South Carolina's loss, Boise State moves up a spot but their future stock went down with TCU's loss. Wisconsin jumped over Stanford due to the Nebraska win but like the announcers mentioned during that game, an undefeated Badger team waits in line behind an undefeated team from the SEC and Big Twelve.

The Big Ten is getting interesting with Illinois and Michigan hoping to challenge Wisconsin for the Rose Bowl slot. Neither is projected as a serious threat but some upset wins could change that. Illinois has had close calls lately and Michigan has to prove it can win on the road. Ohio State's chances dissolved with their loss to Michigan State, but ironically the Spartans aren't in the projected top 25 due to that win. As the new projected winner of the Legends division, they add a championship game with Wisconsin that they're likely to lose, so their overall record suffers. It also helps Nebraska's record, too, as it erases another near-certain loss from the Cornhuskers' slate.

Notre Dame also pokes their head back into the projected final standings. Michigan's continued success helps ease the harm of that loss, and though South Florida lost last week they're 4-1. At 8-4 the Irish wouldn't qualify for a BCS bowl, but at 9-3 they might be under consideration. If they run the table at 10-2, which would include a win over Stanford, they'd be a shoo-in. Their remaining schedule includes three challenges—Air Force, USC, and Navy—all at home, followed by three easier games—Wake Forest, Maryland, and Boston College—with the latter two also at home, before they travel to face the Cardinal.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - Week 4: SEC, Big Twelve dominate

Here we project the final 2011 BCS Standings using our "fuzzy logic" win counter, with a power rating designed to work based on partial victories and defeats. We use our pre-season rankings as a starting point and actual results are added each week.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - Week 4 (9/24/2011)

lw	proj	Team	Proj W	Proj L	BCS Bowl	W	L	USA rank
1	1	Oklahoma	10.70	1.30	BCS Title	3	0	1
2	2	Alabama	11.61	1.39	BCS Title	4	0	2 (tie)
4	3	LSU	9.70	2.30	Sugar	4	0	2 (tie)
3	4	Oklahoma St	10.25	1.75	Fiesta	4	0	6
8	5	South Carolina	10.31	2.69		4	0	9
6	6	Boise St	11.00	1.00	Sugar	3	0	5
7	7	Stanford	11.30	1.70	Rose	3	0	4
9	8	Wisconsin	11.06	1.94	Rose	4	0	7
5	9	Texas A&M	8.88	3.12		2	1	13
10	10	Oregon	10.02	1.98	Fiesta	3	1	11
15	11	Florida	8.00	4.00		4	0	12
12	12	Arkansas	8.11	3.89		3	1	18
17	13	Texas	7.59	4.41		3	0	17
13	14	Virginia Tech	10.44	2.56	Orange	4	0	10
16	15	Nebraska	9.26	3.74		4	0	8
18	16	Missouri	7.67	4.33		2	2	--
14	17	TCU	9.91	2.09		3	1	20
11	18	Florida St	9.75	3.25		2	2	24
23	19	Clemson	8.32	3.68		4	0	15
20	20	Ohio State	8.69	3.31		3	1	--
24	21	Illinois	9.08	2.92		4	0	22
21	22	South Florida	8.36	3.64	Orange	4	0	14
22	23	Auburn	7.08	4.92		3	1	--
25	24	Baylor	6.01	5.99		3	0	16
--	25	Michigan	7.73	4.27		4	0	19

This projection yields the following likely BCS Bowl pairups (changes from last week in bold):

BCS Championship Game:	Oklahoma vs. Alabama
Rose Bowl:	Stanford vs. Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl:	Oklahoma State vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl:	LSU vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl:	Virginia Tech vs. South Florida

The only changes this week are the result of Clemson beating Florida State, and LSU beating West Virginia by enough to lower the Mountaineers in the polls. FSU still projects ahead of Clemson as their schedule is easier from here on, but Virginia Tech is the new favorite in the ACC and the automatic Orange Bowl bid. The Big East's top team is now South Florida, and they're the only Big East team in the top 25.

All of the eligible teams in the top 14 are taken: Note that #5 South Carolina, #11 Florida, and #12 Arkansas are locked out since the SEC will already be represented by Alabama and LSU. #9 Texas A&M and #13 Texas are the #3 and #4 Big Twelve teams. So when the Fiesta selects their second team, they'll be choosing between Boise State, Oregon, and South Florida.

As high as the best SEC and Big Twelve teams are ranked in the USA poll now, the computers will rank them even higher due to both conferences' win-loss record against other leagues. The Big Twelve was 23-2 before last week, and they added wins over Rice (by Baylor), Nevada (by Texas Tech), and Miami (by Kansas State) to make them 26-2. The SEC was 22-4 and added weak wins over Florida Atlantic (30-14 by Auburn) and Louisiana Tech (26-20 in overtime, by Mississippi State), but the score margins don't matter and they're now 24-4.

Whether or not the top two end up coming from the SEC and Big Twelve, they are in pole position and if teams from the two go undefeated, they will be in the BCS Championship game. Boise State, Stanford, and Wisconsin are out of luck unless all of the SEC and Big Twelve teams lose a game. And if the Broncos, Cardinal, and Badgers all suffer a loss, the SEC and Big Twelve will be ahead of them with 1-loss representatives.

This coming weekend the conference races really get underway; this will help determine the actual order within the SEC and Big Twelve, who look certain at this point to have two BCS teams each; the Pac-10, who are next most likely to have two; and the Big Ten, who right now is looking like they'll only have one BCS bid though they've historically had two. The ACC and Big East already, even before the conference season starts, look headed toward their usual 1-BCS-bid result.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - Week 3: Big Twelve is still relevant

Here we project the final 2011 BCS Standings using our "fuzzy logic" win counter, with a power rating designed to work based on partial victories and defeats. We use our pre-season rankings as a starting point and actual results are added each week.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - Week 3 (9/17/2011)

lw	proj	Team	Proj W	Proj L	BCS Bowl	W	L	USA rank
2	1	Oklahoma	10.44	1.56	BCS Title	2	0	1
1	2	Alabama	11.43	1.57	BCS Title	3	0	2
10	3	Oklahoma St	9.67	2.33	Fiesta	3	0	6
5	4	LSU	9.25	2.75	Sugar	3	0	3
9	5	Texas A&M	9.46	2.54		2	0	8
4	6	Boise St	10.84	1.16	Sugar	2	0	4
8	7	Stanford	11.30	1.70	Rose	3	0	5
6	8	South Carolina	10.26	2.74		3	0	10
11	9	Wisconsin	11.06	1.94	Rose	3	0	7
7	10	Oregon	9.91	2.09	Fiesta	2	1	13
3	11	Florida St	10.52	2.48	Orange	2	1	14
12	12	Arkansas	8.29	3.71		3	0	12
15	13	Virginia Tech	10.37	2.63		3	0	11
18	14	TCU	9.91	2.09		2	1	20
16	15	Florida	7.67	4.33		3	0	14
17	16	Nebraska	9.19	3.81		3	0	9
--	17	Texas	7.59	4.41		3	0	18
21	18	Missouri	7.93	4.07		2	1	--
19	19	West Virginia	9.01	2.99	Orange	3	0	16
13	20	Ohio State	8.54	3.46		2	1	--
24	21	South Florida	8.28	3.72		3	0	17
14	22	Auburn	7.07	4.93		2	1	--
--	23	Clemson	7.55	4.45		3	0	22
--	24	Illinois	8.89	3.11		3	0	--
--	25	Baylor	5.79	6.21		2	0	19

This projection yields the following likely BCS Bowl pairups (changes from last week in bold):

BCS Championship Game:	Oklahoma vs. Alabama
Rose Bowl:	Stanford vs. Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl:	Oklahoma State vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl:	LSU vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl:	Florida State vs. West Virginia

After filling in the automatic selections (Oklahoma and Alabama in the BCS Championship, Oklahoma State in the Fiesta, LSU in the Sugar, Stanford and Wisconsin in the Rose, and FSU in the Orange), the selection order is:

1. Fiesta Bowl
2. Sugar Bowl
3. Orange Bowl

When the Fiesta selects, Texas A&M, South Carolina, and Arkansas will be ineligible due to 2-team conference limits, so they must choose from Boise State, Oregon, Virginia Tech, TCU, and West Virginia. None are ideal for attendance and TV purposes. Probably the Virginia teams are out, leaving one of the western teams in the mix. The Fiesta would probably opt for the major conference team, Oregon, under these circumstances. The Sugar would take Boise over an LSU-West Virginia rematch, leaving the Mountaineers in the Orange.

The big news this week is that the Big Twelve suddenly looks relevant, despite its perhaps imminent demise. Oklahoma State rockets up to #3 and Texas A&M, idle last week, still moves up to #5. Texas leaps in at #17 and Missouri and Baylor also make the top 25. The big reason is Oklahoma's win over Florida State, which put the Sooners as the projected regular-season-end #1; both the Cowboys and Aggies have hopes of upsetting Oklahoma and replacing them at the team, and both control their own destiny to the national title game. They play each other next week, and the winner has the inside track to the Fiesta Bowl.

Florida State's loss to Oklahoma pretty much relegates them to ACC champ—if they can beat Virginia Tech—and nothing more. If Oklahoma loses, the team that beat them—be it Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Texas—will finish ahead of the Seminoles under almost any circumstance. Texas' win over UCLA puts them at 3-0, and while we project Baylor to lose to most of the higher-ranked Big Twelve teams, they have the potential for a high ranking if they win some of those; their USA/Coaches poll ranking puts them in good position if they do so. In all the Big Twelve is 23-2 against outside competition this year, including a surprising 3-0 performance from Iowa State who beat Iowa and Connecticut.

Only our Rose and Fiesta projections changed despite the big games. Stanford takes over as Pac-12 champ from Oregon again; those two will probably flip-flop all year until they meet to decide it on the field. Along with Oklahoma State passing Texas A&M for the Fiesta, last week's choice Ohio State drops out of BCS range with their loss to Miami.

Along with Texas three other teams enter at the bottom of the list. Clemson and Baylor are more due to their USA/Coaches poll ranking, while Illinois won a crucial contest with Arizona State and now looks to be 9-3 or 10-2. They play both Ohio State and Wisconsin at home, so there's hope for a Rose Bowl berth, even if it's not terribly likely. We're still not very sold on Michigan—who faces a very tough 2nd half of season again this year—nor Michigan State from the Big Ten; and Georgia Tech and North Carolina of the ACC are both 3-0 and ranked in the USA poll but have yet to face a real test. They play each other this coming weekend and the winner gets a boost but still has a way to go to challenge Virginia Tech as the Coastal favorite.

Dropping out this week are Michigan State, Mississippi State, Tulsa, and Arizona State. The Spartans were only ranked due to their Coaches poll ranking, as we had them favored to lose to the Irish. The Bulldogs needed to beat LSU to stay among the BCS favorites, and didn't. Tulsa lost the second of their three huge games (the first to Oklahoma, #2 to Oklahoma State, and #3 is this week against Boise State). And Arizona State lost the toss-up game to Illinois; they're still the favorite in the Pac-12 South (the real favorite, USC, is ineligible), so they'll have a shot at upsetting Oregon/Stanford to go to a BCS bowl, but the odds are slim.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - Week 2: Stanford wins, but slides

Here we project the final 2011 BCS Standings, this time using our "fuzzy logic" win counter, with a power rating designed to work based on partial victories and defeats. We use our pre-season rankings as a starting point and actual results are added each week.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standing - Week 2 (9/11/2011)

lw	proj	Team	Proj W	Proj L	BCS Bowl	W	L	USA rank
1	1	Alabama	11.42	1.58	BCS Title	2	0	2
2	2	Oklahoma	9.81	2.19	BCS Title	1	0	1
3	3	Florida St	11.15	1.85	Orange	2	0	5
5	4	Boise St	10.75	1.25	Sugar	1	0	4
6	5	LSU	8.69	3.31	Sugar	2	0	3
11	6	South Carolina	10.19	2.81		2	0	11
8	7	Oregon	10.84	2.16	Rose	1	1	14
4	8	Stanford	10.25	1.75		2	0	6
9	9	Texas A&M	9.43	2.57	Fiesta	1	0	9
10	10	Oklahoma St	9.34	2.66		2	0	7
7	11	Wisconsin	10.94	2.06	Rose	2	0	8
12	12	Arkansas	8.25	3.75		2	0	13
13	13	Ohio State	9.12	2.88	Fiesta	2	0	16
21	14	Auburn	7.60	4.40		2	0	19
15	15	Virginia Tech	10.28	2.72		2	0	12
18	16	Florida	7.46	4.54		2	0	17
16	17	Nebraska	8.87	4.13		2	0	10
23	18	TCU	9.90	2.10		1	1	23
19	19	West Virginia	8.56	3.44	Orange	2	0	20
14	20	Mississippi St	7.46	4.54		1	1	25
17	21	Missouri	7.88	4.12		1	1	--
22	22	Michigan State	7.52	4.48		2	0	15
--	23	Tulsa	8.96	4.04		1	1	--
--	24	South Florida	8.27	3.73		2	0	22
--	25	Arizona State	7.30	5.70		2	0	18

This projection yields the following likely BCS Bowl pairups:

BCS Championship Game:	Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Rose Bowl:	Oregon vs. Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl:	Texas A&M vs. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl:	LSU vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl:	Florida State vs. West Virginia

The only change this week is that Oregon gets the Rose Bowl bid instead of Stanford, and that's likely to come down to their head-to-head meeting anyway.

But why does Stanford fall from 4th to 8th? Again, like last week, it has to do with Notre Dame's loss. The Irish were the biggest skin on Stanford's schedule aside from Oregon, and now that the Irish are 0-2 and looking more like a 7-5 team than a 10-2 team, the Cardinal won't be able to use them as a late-season boost. Since Oregon finishes ahead of them in the projection we give them the Pac-12 title game, too, which moves them ahead of Stanford. An Ohio State upset loss—like the one that almost happened against Toledo—would really help the Cardinal (or whoever is the 2nd place Pac-12 team) clinch an at-large selection.

The big upward mover is South Carolina, who got a big win at Georgia that solidified their shot to win the SEC East. But unless they can move past LSU—who should finish 2nd in the West—they won't be in a BCS bowl. They don't play LSU, so it will be all about style points, and they'll need a lot to overcome the fact that the Sugar Bowl will want the home team as Alabama's replacement.

Even Auburn is in the BCS mix after their upset win over Mississippi State, but they're in line behind LSU, South Carolina, and Arkansas for the SEC's 2nd BCS bowl spot. Other than the Tigers replacing the Bulldogs the top 14 teams are the same from last week to this week, though shuffled a bit.

Three new teams move into the projection as Penn State, Notre Dame, and Pitt slide out. Tulsa would have to be the #1 non-AQ team to make a BCS bowl, but the Hurricane play Oklahoma State this weekend and face Boise State the week after; win those and they will definitely be in the top 14. Arizona State's win over Missouri helps but they face a tough road in the Pac-12 and would need to upset Stanford or Oregon in the title game to get a berth. South Florida's job is a lot simpler—just win the Big East title and they're in. Right now West Virginia and Pitt are the Bulls' main competition.

The big game this weekend is Oklahoma vs. Florida State. If FSU wins they'll replace Oklahoma in the projected BCS Championship game, relegating Oklahoma to the Fiesta. An Oklahoma win probably leaves things as they are, since FSU is far ahead in the projected ACC race and still goes to the Orange Bowl.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - post week 1: Oregon's Loss is Oklahoma's Gain

Here we project the final 2011 BCS Standings, this time using our "fuzzy logic" win counter, with a power rating designed to work based on partial victories and defeats. We use our pre-season rankings as a starting point and actual results are added each week.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - post-Week One Projection

prev	proj	Team	Proj W	Proj L	BCS Bowl	W	L	USA rank
2	1	Alabama	11.30	1.70	BCS Title	1	0	2
5	2	Oklahoma	9.81	2.19	BCS Title	1	0	1
4	3	Florida St	11.15	1.85	Orange	1	0	4
3	4	Stanford	11.11	1.89	Rose	1	0	6
6	5	Boise St	10.75	1.25	Sugar	1	0	5
10	6	LSU	8.69	3.31	Sugar	1	0	3
7	7	Wisconsin	10.78	2.22	Rose	1	0	9
1	8	Oregon	9.86	2.14		0	1	14
8	9	Texas A&M	9.43	2.57	Fiesta	1	0	8
11	10	Oklahoma St	9.13	2.87		1	0	7
9	11	South Carolina	9.82	3.18		1	0	12
15	12	Arkansas	8.24	3.76		1	0	13
14	13	Ohio State	8.99	3.01	Fiesta	1	0	15
18	14	Mississippi St	7.90	4.10		1	0	17
16	15	Virginia Tech	10.19	2.81		1	0	11
17	16	Nebraska	8.45	3.55		1	0	10
21	17	Missouri	8.39	3.61		1	0	19
19	18	Florida	7.42	4.58		1	0	18
24	19	West Virginia	8.56	3.44	Orange	1	0	24
13	20	Notre Dame	7.96	4.04		0	1	--
20	21	Auburn	7.16	4.84		1	0	22
23	22	Michigan State	7.51	4.49		1	0	16
12	23	TCU	9.54	2.46		0	1	25
--	24	Pittsburgh	8.10	3.90		1	0	--
--	25	Penn State	6.66	5.34		1	0	20

This projection yields the following likely BCS Bowl pairups:

BCS Championship Game:	Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Rose Bowl:	Stanford vs. Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl:	Texas A&M vs. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl:	LSU vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl:	Florida State vs. West Virginia

Two teams fall out of BCS bowls and two new ones enter, but three of the bowl pairings are unaffected: the Rose, Sugar, and Orange.

The big winner from LSU's win over Oregon isn't LSU, who is still projected to play Boise State in the Sugar Bowl. With Oregon knocked from the top spot, Oklahoma moves in the title game. Right behind them is Florida State—for now in the Orange Bowl—but the two teams play in a couple of weeks and the winner will clearly be in line for the BCS championship game.

Other teams who play LSU this year also got a boost, as a loss is less harmful and a win would be a boon. Arkansas and Mississippi State moved into the top 14, and West Virginia moved up five spots.

Other than Oregon, Stanford was the biggest loser last week. Instead of moving into the BCS title game from #3, they dropped a spot because the two marquee teams on their schedule—Oregon and Notre Dame—were both upset, which hurts their chances to impress both humans and computers. With Oregon's loss we're using the Cardinal as the Pac-12 winner; whereas last week they were a replacement for Oregon in the Rose Bowl, now they're the highest-ranked team from the conference so we consider them the winner, beating ASU in the Pac-12 title game.

Interestingly, with Oklahoma in the national title game the Big Twelve #2 would go to the Fiesta Bowl. Currently that looks like Texas A&M, though Oklahoma State is breathing down their necks. The Aggies are trying to leave that conference, but if they place #2 then they would go unless the Big Twelve pulls a fast one and declares that teams leaving the conference aren't allowed to be the representative.

Oregon is probably left out of a BCS bowl unless they win the Pac-12 title. Among the three spots left the Fiesta Bowl will pick its opponent first, but few teams will be available in the top 14. #10 Oklahoma State is out since they're also a Big Twelve team, and South Carolina, Arkansas, and Mississippi State can't go since the SEC already has two teams in BCS Bowls. That leaves #5 Boise State, #8 Oregon, and #13 Ohio State, and reality being what it is the Ohio State pick creates the most interest for TV and filling the stadium. Last week's Fiesta pick, Notre Dame, doesn't look BCS-bound anymore after losing to USF.

Like last week, that leaves Boise State and West Virginia as the Sugar Bowl's possible choices to face LSU. Now that Boise beat Georgia it's even more likely they get picked to face LSU in the Sugar Bowl. With LSU in the bag, the Sugar committee won't have to worry about selling out the stadium and nationally Boise would probably create more interest than bringing in the Big East champion (whether West Virginia or Pitt), who will go to the Orange Bowl.

Conference Final Standings: Fuzzy Logic Projections - week one

FBS Conference Projected Standings for 2011 season

Updated for games through September 5, 2011 (week one). Only the few conferences who had relevant games are updated in this post; for the remainder see our pre-season post here.

We use "fuzzy logic" which allows for partial wins and losses to project the most likely conference winners based on our pre-season rankings. Actual results are integrated as the season progresses.

rank = projected ranking position at end of season
lw = last week's ranking
proj W = projected conference wins at end of season
proj L = projected conference losses at end of season
W = current actual conference wins
L = current actual conference losses

ACC
rank	lw	Atlantic division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Florida State	7.10	0.90	0	0
2	2	North Carolina State	4.69	3.31	0	0
3	4	Maryland	4.43	3.57	1	0
4	3	Clemson	4.36	3.64	0	0
5	5	Boston College	3.72	4.28	0	0
6	6	Wake Forest	1.82	6.18	0	0
rank	lw	Coastal division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Virginia Tech	6.17	1.83	0	0
2	3	North Carolina	4.30	3.70	0	0
3	2	Miami FL	4.05	3.95	0	1
4	4	Georgia Tech	2.69	5.31	0	0
5	5	Duke	2.39	5.61	0	0
6	6	Virginia	2.27	5.73	0	0

Only three leagues played any intra-conference games, and the ACC had the most important as suspension-plagued Miami nearly overcame the odds but fell to Maryland. The Terps now have a good chance to edge Clemson for the #3 spot in the Atlantic while the 'Canes look like a solid #3 in the Coastal behind UNC.

rank	lw	Mountain West	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Boise State	6.24	0.76	0	0
2	2	TCU	5.74	1.26	0	0
3	3	Air Force	5.09	1.91	0	0
4	4	San Diego State	4.25	2.75	0	0
5	6	Colorado State	2.29	4.71	1	0
6	5	Wyoming	1.98	5.02	0	0
7	7	UNLV	1.49	5.51	0	0
8	8	New Mexico	0.93	6.07	0	1

Colorado State beat New Mexico, which only solidifies the Lobos' spot in the cellar, while the Rams move up to #5. That's probably as far as they go as there's a big gap between the upper and lower half of the conference though.

rank	lw	Sun Belt	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	2	Florida International	5.94	2.06	1	0
2	1	Arkansas State	5.84	2.16	0	0
3	3	Troy	4.95	3.05	0	0
4	4	Louisiana Monroe	3.98	4.02	0	0
5	5	Western Kentucky	3.88	4.12	0	0
6	6	North Texas	3.54	4.46	0	1
7	7	Louisiana Lafayette	3.30	4.70	0	0
8	8	Middle Tennessee St	2.69	5.31	0	0
9	9	Florida Atlantic	1.88	6.12	0	0

FIU defeated North Texas which doesn't affect the Mean Green at all but pushes the Panthers just past Arkansas State as expected division winner.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - Pre-Season

Here we project the final 2011 BCS Standings, this time using our "fuzzy logic" win counter, with a power rating designed to work based on partial victories and defeats. We use our pre-season rankings as a starting point and actual results are added each week.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standing - Pre-Season Projection

prev	proj	Team	Proj W	Proj L	BCS Bowl	W	L	USA rank
--	1	Oregon	11.56	1.44	BCS title	0	0	3
--	2	Alabama	11.29	1.71	BCS title	0	0	2
--	3	Stanford	10.21	1.79	Rose	0	0	6
--	4	Florida St	11.14	1.86	Orange	0	0	5
--	5	Oklahoma	9.64	2.36	Fiesta	0	0	1
--	6	Boise St	10.45	1.55	Sugar	0	0	7
--	7	Wisconsin	10.77	2.23	Rose	0	0	10
--	8	Texas A&M	9.36	2.64		0	0	9
--	9	South Carolina	9.79	3.21		0	0	12
--	10	LSU	7.92	4.08	Sugar	0	0	4
--	11	Oklahoma St	9.12	2.88		0	0	8
--	12	TCU	10.41	1.59		0	0	15
--	13	Notre Dame	8.79	3.21	Fiesta	0	0	18
--	14	Ohio State	8.98	3.02		0	0	16
--	15	Arkansas	8.23	3.77		0	0	14
--	16	Virginia Tech	10.11	2.89		0	0	13
--	17	Nebraska	8.72	4.28		0	0	11
--	18	Mississippi St	7.89	4.11		0	0	20
--	19	Florida	7.41	4.59		0	0	23
--	20	Auburn	7.11	4.89		0	0	19
--	21	Missouri	8.30	3.70		0	0	21
--	22	Georgia	7.72	4.28		0	0	22
--	23	Michigan State	7.48	4.52		0	0	17
--	24	West Virginia	8.50	3.50	Orange	0	0	--
--	25	Illinois	8.22	3.78		0	0	--

If that projection comes true, it yields the following likely BCS Bowl pairups (favorite highlighted):

BCS Championship Game:	Oregon vs. Alabama
Rose Bowl:	Stanford vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl:	LSU vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl:	Florida State vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl:	Oklahoma vs. Notre Dame

The selection process is pretty interesting, and Notre Dame's selection is not as unfair as it may look from the gap between they and the top 9.

First Oregon and Alabama are paired in the BCS Championship game, leaving the Rose Bowl needing a substitute (Stanford). The Sugar Bowl has a tough choice between South Carolina and LSU; the Gamecocks, coming out of the East, should have a better record than LSU even if they lose to Alabama in the SEC title game, and are one spot higher. But LSU is the home team. They'd like to do what's fair when representing the SEC, but an automatic sellout could be hard to resist, especially considering who the opponent will be. The other Rose Bowl slot goes to Big Ten winner Wisconsin; the Orange Bowl gets Florida State; and the Fiesta Bowl has Oklahoma.

Now the at-large teams. The picking order this year is Fiesta, Sugar, Orange. By the time the Fiesta makes its pick for its second team, the entire top 10 has been selected except for Boise State, Texas A&M, and LSU. With the top 14 eligible for at-large selection, that means Oklahoma State, TCU, Notre Dame, and Ohio State are available. But Boise State (non-AQ top 12), and the Big East champ (Pittsburgh, though unranked, is our very slight favorite to win the conference, but since the Mountaineers rank higher we'll use them) must be selected by someone. The Fiesta Bowl figures:

• #6 Boise State is not the best draw
• #8 Texas A&M is out because they're another Big Twelve team
• #9 South Carolina is out because two SEC teams are already chosen
• #11 Oklahoma State is another Big Twelve team
• #12 TCU, MWC runner-up, would not be chosen before MWC champ Boise State
• that leaves #13 Notre Dame and #14 Ohio State

Given that choice, Notre Dame, who hasn't been to a BCS bowl since 2006, is one spot higher and much more attractive than scandal-plagued Ohio State. So while Boise is skipped, they're guaranteed a BCS Bowl (under this projection) and Texas A&M, LSU, Oklahoma State, and TCU aren't unfairly skipped over—they just can't or shouldn't be selected.

That leaves Boise State and West Virginia as the Sugar Bowl's choices. If Pitt wins the Big East it could go either way, but they probably take Boise State. If Broncos are in the top ten they would create more interest. The SEC would want revenge if Boise State beats Georgia in the opener. A Boise State - FSU matchup could be between two nearly-undefeated teams, so a deal might be struck to set that up, but if West Virginia wins the Big East then Boise State would go to the Sugar, as West Virginia and LSU play during the regular season.

Conference Final Standings: Fuzzy Logic Projections - Pre-Season

FBS Conference Projected Standings for 2011 season

We use "fuzzy logic" which allows for partial wins and losses to project the most likely conference winners based on our pre-season rankings. Actual results are integrated as the season progresses.

rank = projected ranking position at end of season
lw = last week's ranking
proj W = projected conference wins at end of season
proj L = projected conference losses at end of season
W = current actual conference wins
L = current actual conference losses

ACC
rank	lw	Atlantic division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	--	Florida State	7.10	0.90	0	0
2	--	North Carolina State	4.69	3.31	0	0
3	--	Clemson	4.36	3.64	0	0
4	--	Maryland	4.09	3.91	0	0
5	--	Boston College	3.72	4.28	0	0
6	--	Wake Forest	1.82	6.18	0	0
rank	lw	Coastal division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	--	Virginia Tech	6.17	1.83	0	0
2	--	Miami FL	4.39	3.61	0	0
3	--	North Carolina	4.30	3.70	0	0
4	--	Georgia Tech	2.69	5.31	0	0
5	--	Duke	2.39	5.61	0	0
6	--	Virginia	2.27	5.73	0	0

Florida State is our most dominant team in any conference; they have less than 1 full expected loss. They are favored to beat Virginia Tech in the ACC title game.

rank	lw	Big East	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	--	Pittsburgh	4.66	2.34	0	0
2	--	West Virginia	4.61	2.39	0	0
3	--	Cincinnati	4.05	2.95	0	0
4	--	South Florida	3.87	3.13	0	0
5	--	Louisville	3.25	3.75	0	0
6	--	Connecticut	3.18	3.82	0	0
7	--	Syracuse	2.68	4.32	0	0
8	--	Rutgers	1.70	5.30	0	0

Pitt is behind West Virginia in our pre-season rankings but has a tiny edge in the Big East conference projection, which would send them to a BCS bowl. Since the difference is less than half a game, if West Virginia wins the head-to-head matchup they would likely come out on top.

Big Ten
rank	lw	Leaders division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	--	Wisconsin	6.36	1.64	0	0
2	--	Ohio State	5.69	2.31	0	0
3	--	Illinois	5.07	2.93	0	0
4	--	Penn State	3.91	4.09	0	0
5	--	Purdue	2.60	5.40	0	0
6	--	Indiana	1.21	6.79	0	0
rank	lw	Legends division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	--	Nebraska	4.94	3.06	0	0
2	--	Iowa	4.71	3.29	0	0
3	--	Michigan State	4.39	3.61	0	0
4	--	Michigan	3.73	4.27	0	0
5	--	Northwestern	3.08	4.92	0	0
6	--	Minnesota	2.29	5.71	0	0

Wisconsin runs away with the Leaders division while Nebraska barely fends off Iowa and Michigan State. The Legends winner may come down to Iowa vs. Nebraska on the final day of conference play, assuming Iowa beats the Spartans who are ranked ahead of them but have a tougher schedule. The Badgers should win the inaugural Big Ten title game.

rank	lw	Big Twelve	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	--	Oklahoma	7.45	1.55	0	0
2	--	Texas A&M	6.88	2.12	0	0
3	--	Oklahoma State	6.68	2.32	0	0
4	--	Missouri	5.93	3.07	0	0
5	--	Texas	4.60	4.40	0	0
6	--	Kansas State	3.57	5.43	0	0
7	--	Baylor	2.99	6.01	0	0
8	--	Texas Tech	2.98	6.02	0	0
9	--	Iowa State	2.78	6.22	0	0
10	--	Kansas	1.15	7.85	0	0

It looks like a race for second place in the Big Twelve between Texas A&M and Oklahoma State, with the Sooners the champs by a reasonable margin.

Pac-12
rank	lw	North division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	--	Oregon	7.91	1.09	0	0
2	--	Stanford	7.45	1.55	0	0
3	--	California	4.85	4.15	0	0
4	--	Oregon State	4.09	4.91	0	0
5	--	Washington	3.64	5.36	0	0
6	--	Washington State	2.32	6.68	0	0
rank	lw	South division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	--	USC	4.95	4.05	0	0
2	--	Arizona State	4.77	4.23	0	0
3	--	Utah	4.31	4.69	0	0
4	--	UCLA	4.04	4.96	0	0
5	--	Arizona	3.81	5.19	0	0
6	--	Colorado	1.87	7.13	0	0

The North division has our #1 and #2 teams nationally, so it should come down to the winner of that contest. The South goes the USC who can't play in the title game, so Arizona State will go instead. Oregon should win the Pac-12.

SEC
rank	lw	East division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	--	South Carolina	5.73	2.27	0	0
2	--	Georgia	4.71	3.29	0	0
3	--	Florida	4.17	3.83	0	0
4	--	Kentucky	3.04	4.96	0	0
5	--	Tennessee	2.55	5.45	0	0
6	--	Vanderbilt	1.80	6.20	0	0
rank	lw	West division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	--	Alabama	6.81	1.19	0	0
2	--	LSU	5.16	2.84	0	0
3	--	Arkansas	4.86	3.14	0	0
4	--	Mississippi State	4.11	3.89	0	0
5	--	Auburn	3.65	4.35	0	0
6	--	Mississippi	1.42	6.58	0	0

The SEC East goes to South Carolina by a country mile, while the rugged West goes to Alabama by an even bigger margin surprisingly. The Tide are favored in the SEC title game.

CUSA
rank	lw	East division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	--	Southern Miss	6.03	1.97	0	0
2	--	Central Florida	5.79	2.21	0	0
3	--	East Carolina	3.67	4.33	0	0
4	--	UAB	3.54	4.46	0	0
5	--	Marshall	2.84	5.16	0	0
6	--	Memphis	0.76	7.24	0	0
rank	lw	West division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	--	Tulsa	6.69	1.31	0	0
2	--	Houston	5.81	2.19	0	0
3	--	Southern Methodist	4.72	3.28	0	0
4	--	Rice	3.33	4.67	0	0
5	--	Tulane	2.80	5.20	0	0
6	--	UTEP	2.03	5.97	0	0

Southern Miss and Central Florida are far ahead of the rest of the pack in the CUSA East, while Tulsa and Houston are in the West. We have Tulsa the ultimate winner.

MAC
rank	lw	East division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	--	Temple	5.88	2.12	0	0
2	--	Miami OH	4.91	3.09	0	0
3	--	Ohio	4.67	3.33	0	0
4	--	Kent State	4.17	3.83	0	0
5	--	Bowling Green	2.49	5.51	0	0
6	--	Buffalo	1.84	6.16	0	0
7	--	Akron	1.70	6.30	0	0
rank	lw	West division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	--	Northern Illinois	6.41	1.59	0	0
2	--	Western Michigan	5.77	2.23	0	0
3	--	Toledo	5.15	2.85	0	0
4	--	Central Michigan	4.18	3.82	0	0
5	--	Ball State	3.21	4.79	0	0
6	--	Eastern Michigan	1.61	6.39	0	0

Temple and Northern Illinois should win the East and West respectively, and Northern Illinois will have home field advantage in taking the MAC crown.

rank	lw	Mountain West	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	--	Boise State	6.24	0.76	0	0
2	--	TCU	5.74	1.26	0	0
3	--	Air Force	5.09	1.91	0	0
4	--	San Diego State	4.25	2.75	0	0
5	--	Wyoming	1.98	5.02	0	0
6	--	Colorado State	1.79	5.21	0	0
7	--	UNLV	1.49	5.51	0	0
8	--	New Mexico	1.43	5.57	0	0

Boise State and TCU are the top teams in the MWC and whoever wins the head-to-head battle should take the crown. Air Force is a wild card that could force a three-way tie with an upset.

rank	lw	Sun Belt	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	--	Arkansas State	5.84	2.16	0	0
2	--	Florida International	5.74	2.26	0	0
3	--	Troy	4.95	3.05	0	0
4	--	Louisiana Monroe	3.98	4.02	0	0
5	--	Western Kentucky	3.88	4.12	0	0
6	--	North Texas	3.74	4.26	0	0
7	--	Louisiana Lafayette	3.30	4.70	0	0
8	--	Middle Tennessee St	2.69	5.31	0	0
9	--	Florida Atlantic	1.88	6.12	0	0

Arkansas State is a very narrow favorite over FIU, so the winner of the head-to-head matchup should win the Sun Belt.

rank	lw	WAC	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	--	Nevada	5.87	1.13	0	0
2	--	Hawaii	4.13	2.87	0	0
3	--	Louisiana Tech	3.79	3.21	0	0
4	--	Fresno State	3.79	3.21	0	0
5	--	San Jose State	3.68	3.32	0	0
6	--	Idaho	3.13	3.87	0	0
7	--	Utah State	2.72	4.28	0	0
8	--	New Mexico State	0.88	6.12	0	0

Nevada is the WAC favorite far and away by our system's ratings, but Hawaii and Fresno State (by our ratings, locked in a struggle for 3rd place with Louisiana Tech) are most people's favorites. New Mexico State has the fewest projected wins of any team in the FBS with less than 1 full win.

Glitch in the (Colley) Matrix Puts Boise State at #10, LSU #11 in BCS Standings

Well, a few days later and the BCS standings are STILL changing! As it turns out, one of the computer rankings—the Colley Matrix, by Wes Colley—had an error which was discovered by Jerry Palm of collegebcs.com. An FCS (I-AA) playoff game wasn't included in the calculation, and when it was, Boise State had gained a spot, from #11 to #10.

Originally LSU had a .6167 rating; this fell to .6134. Boise State's ranking moved from .6014 to .6137.

What this means is that my Sunday afternoon projections were correct all the way from #1 to #15, as seen below:

SportsRatings' Projected BCS Standings from Sunday afternoon

2010 Projected Final BCS Standings
prev	new	Team	record	BCS Bowl	Proj. Score	Actual
1	1	Auburn	13-0	BCS Title	0.9860	.9866
2	2	Oregon	12-0	BCS Title	0.9736	.9720
3	3	TCU	12-0	Rose	0.9156	.9102
4	4	Stanford	11-1	Orange	0.8440	.8365
5	5	Wisconsin	11-1	Rose	0.8058	.8041
6	6	Ohio St.	11-1	Sugar	0.7540	.7660
9	7	Oklahoma	11-2	Fiesta	0.7307	.7297
7	8	Arkansas	10-2	Sugar	0.7205	.7247
8	9	Michigan St.	11-1		0.6842	.6922
11	10	Boise St.	11-1		0.6292	.6137
10	11	LSU	10-2		0.6070	.6134
12	12	Missouri	10-2		0.5323	.5276
14	13	Oklahoma St.	10-2		0.4954	.4897
15	14	Virginia Tech	11-2	Orange	0.4887	.5032
17	15	Nevada	11-1		0.4362	.4336

Of course, if you're going to get the top 15 right, this was the week to do it. Most the teams didn't even play. Still, it's something.

The ramifications of this error aren't quite staggering, but it does bring up the following points of interest:

1. The error was found in the Colley Matrix because Colley's code is public domain and can be checked out and verified by anyone in theory. But the other five aren't. How many data entry errors are there in the other ratings? We'll never know.
2. Different computer ratings use I-AA results in different ways. Sagarin actually mixes the I-AA teams in with the I-A, while Colley doesn't rank individual I-AA teams but uses the results to form FCS "groupings." Three of the computer ratings don't even count results of games with I-AA teams.
3. Does this mean (and the answer is "yes") that as the I-AA playoffs continue, the BCS standings could change? The order of teams is unlikely to change, but the rating numbers will move a bit. So Stanford is safe at #4, Wisconsin is safely ahead of Ohio State, and Auburn and Oregon will remain #1 and #2. But Boise and LSU may continue to jockey for #10.
4. If teams can switch order based on the result of a game between two I-AA teams, might there also be some change (and the answer is again, "yes") from the results of the Army-Navy game this coming Saturday?
5. If somehow Ohio State moved ahead of Wisconsin because of Army beating Navy, would Ohio State go to the Rose Bowl? The answer is: I believe the standings as of Sunday are considered to be the final standings. And (hopefully) they looked at the potential impact of Army-Navy and found it to be negligible so that Sunday's standings could be used to pick the bowl games. And obviously, the game isn't going to affect anything.
6. Will it always be the case that they can ignore minor games in the BCS standings? No, not when a playoff is inevitably adopted. A playoff will not mean the end of the BCS system...it will still be used to seed the teams. For example, broken-record-BCS-basher Dan Wetzel is fond of presenting his playoff brackets at this time in the season. In his pairings, LSU was an at-large selection because they finished #10 in the BCS.

Here is a look at his pairings, brought to you by (and courteously hot-linked from) Yahoo! Sports:

Figure A: Dan Wetzel's Monday BCS-derived playoff brackets.

Notice LSU is present but Boise State isn't. If Wetzel's system were used, LSU's bid would be withdrawn right about now, and the bid given to Boise State instead. And where would LSU go bowling? Would they face Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl?

No, they would not: they would wait until next Saturday, along with Boise State, until the Army-Navy game had been played, to see who ends up on top. It's that close. Would they factor in the semifinal round of the I-AA if that were the case? Probably would have to, right?

Basically, even if there were a playoff, there would be just as much belly-aching from everyone as to who should go. More, even, since it's pretty rare that the BCS system will ever diverge from the #1 and #2 teams in the polls again because of the 2/3 weight. But a playoff puts the argument all the way into the guts of the system, where 2-loss teams are ahead of 1-loss teams and the computers have a real say in things. Stanford, for example, is only ahead of Wisconsin because of the computers.

Do 4 teams get in? 8? 16? The more teams, the more argument. That's why a 2-team playoff (which is really what we have now) leads to the smallest amount of disagreement. Maybe the smallest amount of satisfaction, too, but we do get to see the game we really want to see without a 3-loss team having the chance to mess things up. That's cool in basketball, not in football, so I hope when the playoff comes there are a maximum of 8 teams involved, maybe just 4, and never a 3-loss team. Personally I wouldn't want 2-loss teams involved: the tradition in college football is that 2-loss teams don't win the championship (LSU is the only, extreme case of that happening and they lost two triple-overtime games).

So just wait until we have a playoff. Far from settling everything, that's when the debate REALLY begins!

Projected BCS Standings for Sunday, December 5 (Updated) and Projected BCS Bowl Pairings

The final relevant weekend for the 2010 BCS standings has passed, and no major surprises occurred. Oregon and Auburn both won, leaving the question of the top two teams easily solved. Favorites Oklahoma and Virginia Tech earned automatic bids to the Fiesta and Orange bowls respectively. Connecticut solved the mystery of the Big East by beating USF and claiming an automatic bid.

In fact, the weekend's results matched the default setting in our BCS Bowl Predictor widget. So if you use the widget and don't change anything, you get the matchups presented below as the result.

The top spot will remain with Auburn and they will undoubtedly increase their .0002 margin from last week. Significantly, Stanford appears to easily hold the #4 spot, meaning they are guaranteed a BCS bowl, and Wisconsin remains ahead of Ohio State, meaning they win the Big Ten and go to the Rose Bowl. This makes forecasting the pairings a whole lot easier.

The only questions are whether Oklahoma will pass Arkansas for the #7 spot or just move up one to #8; whether Boise moves into the top 10; and how far Virginia Tech moves up (they may pass Oklahoma State). None of these make a difference in the selection of the BCS bowls.

Projected BCS Standings for Sunday, December 5, 2010

2010 Projected Final BCS Standings
prev	new	Team	record	BCS Bowl	Proj. Score	Actual
1	1	Auburn	13-0	BCS Title	0.9860	.9866
2	2	Oregon	12-0	BCS Title	0.9736	.9720
3	3	TCU	12-0	Rose	0.9156	.9102
4	4	Stanford	11-1	Orange	0.8440	.8365
5	5	Wisconsin	11-1	Rose	0.8058	.8041
6	6	Ohio St.	11-1	Sugar	0.7540	.7660
9	7	Oklahoma	11-2	Fiesta	0.7307	.7297
7	8	Arkansas	10-2	Sugar	0.7205	.7247
8	9	Michigan St.	11-1		0.6842	.6922
10	10	LSU	10-2		0.6070	.6167
11	11	Boise St.	11-1		0.6292	.6014
12	12	Missouri	10-2		0.5323	.5276
14	13	Oklahoma St.	10-2		0.4954	.4897
15	14	Virginia Tech	11-2	Orange	0.4887	.5032
17	15	Nevada	11-1		0.4362	.4336

Update: I very nearly got the entire top 15 correct, but had Boise State and LSU swapped. Close but no cigar. UPDATE DAYS LATER: Actually, I DID get the entire top 15 correct. It turns out there was a glitch in one of the computer ratings (Colley) and when refigured, Boise State actually is #10 and LSU #11. Interesting! Details here.

From this, we get the following probable BCS bowl pairings:

BCS Championship Game:	Auburn vs. Oregon
Rose Bowl:	Wisconsin vs. TCU
Sugar Bowl:	Arkansas vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl:	Virginia Tech vs. Stanford
Fiesta Bowl:	Oklahoma vs. Connecticut

It's pretty simple for the national championship game: Auburn will face Oregon.

The Rose Bowl is pretty well set with Wisconsin and TCU, and Arkansas and Ohio State are pretty much a lock for the Sugar. The Orange will probably take Stanford to face Virginia Tech instead of 8-4 Connecticut, leaving the Huskies to face Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.

The only changeups I could see happening are the Orange taking UConn, or the BCS Bowls together deciding it would be better to put them in the Orange and have Stanford stay out West in the Fiesta. But if they're going to do that, why not go one step farther and put Stanford in the Rose where they belong, and create an Oklahoma-TCU matchup in the Fiesta? It's a slim chance but possible according to the BCS rules. Whether the bowls involved would want this, I don't know.

UPDATE: Well, the swaps didn't happen unfortunately. Oh well. We had the BCS bowls correct; by the end they were pretty obvious I think.

BCS Projections for Sunday, December 5: What Happens if Auburn or Oregon (or Both) Lose

The final relevant weekend for the 2010 BCS standings is upon us, and the #1 and #2 teams both have a game left. So the question is: what happens if one of them loses? Both of them? There could be some surprising results. [Note: to see what might happen based on all 128 combinations of results in the 7 relevant games, see our BCS Bowl Projection Widget]

Among the top 15 teams, six have a game yet to play:

• #1 Oregon travels to Oregon State
• #2 Auburn faces #19 South Carolina for the SEC Championship
• #9 Oklahoma faces #13 Nebraska for the Big Twelve Championship
• #11 Boise State hosts Utah State
• #13 Nebraska plays #9 Oklahoma
• #14 Virginia Tech plays #21 Florida State for the ACC title

Only the first two games are directly relevant to the BCS title game, but the Oklahoma-Nebraska result could possibly affect things under certain circumstances. That game, as well as Virginia Tech-FSU, affects which teams get into BCS bowls, and the three Big East games determine which team gets an automatic bid from that conference. Those games are:

• Connecticut at South Florida
• Rutgers at #24 West Virginia
• Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

Note that in the following projections, except for the Auburn and Oregon games we are assuming the favorite by the oddsmakers wins. Since Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, South Florida, and West Virginia are favored, that puts Oklahoma in the Fiesta, Virginia Tech in the Orange, and West Virginia into a BCS Bowl game.

Let's start with the obvious case, Oregon and Auburn win. It's not too hard to tell who will be on top in that case.

Case A: Auburn, Oregon win

2010 Projected Final BCS Rankings  - post-week 13: Case A
#	Team	record	BCS Bowl	Current BCS
1	Auburn	13-0	BCS Title	1
2	Oregon	12-0	BCS Title	2
3	TCU	12-0	Rose   *	3
4	Stanford	11-1	Fiesta   *	4
5	Wisconsin	11-1	Rose	5
6	Ohio St.	11-1	Sugar	6
7	Oklahoma	11-2	Fiesta	9
8	Arkansas	10-2	Sugar	7
9	Michigan St.	11-1		8
10	LSU	10-2		10
11	Boise St.	11-1		11
12	Missouri	10-2		12
13	Oklahoma St.	10-2		14
14	Virginia Tech	11-2	Orange	15
15	Nevada	11-1		17

Using Projection A, we get the following probable bowl pairings:

BCS Championship Game:	Auburn vs. Oregon
Rose Bowl:	Wisconsin vs. TCU (Stanford)
Sugar Bowl:	Arkansas vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl:	Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl:	Oklahoma vs. Stanford (TCU)

This case is pretty simple for the national championship game; Auburn will face Oregon. The Rose Bowl is the only interesting case; if UConn loses, West Virginia might be chosen by the Orange, leaving Stanford vs. Oklahoma in the Fiesta, and a trade could be arranged to put Stanford in the Rose and TCU in the Fiesta. Since this is my speculation I'll leave the "official" pairings alone.

Case B: Auburn loses (Oregon wins)

2010 Projected Final BCS Rankings  - post-week 13: Case B
#	Team	record	BCS Bowl	Current BCS
1	Oregon	12-0	BCS Title	2
2	TCU*	12-0	BCS Title	3
3	Auburn*	12-1	Orange	1
4	Stanford	11-1	Rose	4
5	Wisconsin	11-1	Rose	5
6	Ohio St.	11-1	Sugar	6
7	Arkansas	10-2		7
8	Oklahoma	11-2	Fiesta	9
9	Michigan St.	11-1		8
10	LSU	10-2		10
11	Boise St.	11-1		11
12	Missouri	10-2		12
13	South Carolina	10-3	Sugar	19
14	Virginia Tech	11-2	Orange	15
15	Oklahoma St.	10-2		14

Using Projection B, we get the following probable bowl pairings:

BCS Championship Game:	Oregon vs. TCU
Rose Bowl:	Wisconsin vs. Stanford
Sugar Bowl:	South Carolina vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl:	Virginia Tech vs. Auburn
Fiesta Bowl:	Oklahoma vs. West Virginia

This case is a crapshoot. We put TCU in there because it shows how the bowls will line up if TCU does indeed pass Auburn and get to the national title game. But that's far from a guarantee. Auburn will still rank #1 in at least half of the computer ratings, and will fall to #3 in the polls. But how the poll points play out there will be crucial. Basically it comes down to two things: 1) Magnitude of Auburn's loss to South Carolina. A blowout and TCU is #2; a very narrow loss and Auburn is #2. Somewhere in-between? Who knows.

Also, the Nebraska-Oklahoma game could affect the result. The Sooners are right behind TCU in a couple of the computer polls, and if they inch ahead with a win it could hurt the Horned Frogs by just enough to keep Auburn #2. A Nebraska win might make the difference and put TCU in the title game.

All the rest of the bowls are affected by whether Auburn or TCU lands in the national title game. In any case, the certain loser in this scenario is Arkansas, who would be kicked out of the Sugar Bowl by the Gamecocks.

Case C: Oregon loses, Auburn wins

2010 Projected Final BCS Rankings  - post-week 13: Case C
#	Team	record	BCS Bowl	Current BCS
1	Auburn	13-0	BCS Title	1
2	TCU	12-0	BCS Title	3
3	Oregon	11-1	Rose	2
4	Stanford	11-1	Fiesta	4
5	Wisconsin	11-1	Rose	5
6	Ohio St.	11-1	Sugar	6
7	Oklahoma	11-2	Fiesta	9
8	Arkansas	10-2	Sugar	7
9	Michigan St.	11-1		8
10	Boise St.	11-1		11
11	LSU	10-2		10
12	Missouri	10-2		12
13	Virginia Tech	11-2	Orange	15
14	Oklahoma St.	10-2		14
15	Nevada	11-1		17

Using Projection C, we get the following probable bowl pairings:

BCS Championship Game:	Auburn vs. TCU
Rose Bowl:	Wisconsin vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl:	Arkansas vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl:	Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl:	Oklahoma vs. Stanford

In this case TCU very likely gets a shot at the title. Oregon might not fall below TCU in the polls, but they'd be #3 in many ballots. But their computer ranking would take a huge hit. Unlike Auburn, who would hold the "respect" of the computers and stay high, the Ducks would fall to 3rd or 4th in the computer composite and TCU would rise to a solid #2. This would put the Horned Frogs ahead of the Ducks in most variations of this scenario. If Oregon lost a very close game, say in overtime, it might convince the voters to keep them a strong #2 in the polls which might let them hold the #2 spot in the BCS. But the fact that TCU beat Oregon State might come into play here, too.

The rest of the bowls fall into line with Oregon against Wisconsin in the Rose, and Stanford (at #4 still guaranteed a BCS bowl) facing Oklahoma in the Fiesta, and no need for a "trade" to make a Big Ten-Pac 10 Rose Bowl.

Case D: Auburn loses, Oregon loses

2010 Projected Final BCS Rankings  - post-week 13: Case D
#	Team	record	BCS Bowl	Current BCS
1	Auburn*	12-1	BCS Title	1
2	TCU*	12-0	BCS Title	3
3	Oregon	11-1	Rose	2
4	Stanford	11-1	Fiesta	4
5	Wisconsin	11-1	Rose	5
6	Ohio St.	11-1	Sugar	6
7	Arkansas	10-2		7
8	Oklahoma	11-2	Fiesta	9
9	Michigan St.	11-1		8
10	Boise St.	11-1		11
11	LSU	10-2		10
12	Missouri	10-2		12
13	South Carolina	10-3	Sugar	19
14	Virginia Tech	11-2	Orange	15
15	Oklahoma St.	10-2		14

Using Projection D, we get the following probable bowl pairings:

BCS Championship Game:	Auburn vs. TCU
Rose Bowl:	Wisconsin vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl:	South Carolina vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl:	Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl:	Oklahoma vs. Stanford

This is the one case where TCU is probably guaranteed an appearance in the national championship. With both Auburn and Oregon losing, TCU would garner a lot of 1st place votes and might finish #1 in one or both polls. They'd be a solid #2 in the computers, more than enough to put them ahead of Oregon. They probably wouldn't finish ahead of Auburn, who would be in the mix for the top spot in the polls and probably hold #1 in the computers as well. Oregon would be out of luck, falling to a 6-6 foe that TCU already beat; they'd probably be #3 in the polls and drop considerably in the computer ratings.

Once again the biggest loser would be Arkansas, ceding their Sugar Bowl spot to South Carolina.

Other scenarios?

That's just four scenarios. The BCS Bowl games could be affected by as many as 7 game results, meaning that 128 possibilities have to be addressed. Fortunately we've done that for you in our BCS Bowl Projector Widget.

TCU's chances

Here's how I see TCU's percentage chances based on the four scenarios above:

Scenario             % TCU in title game
Auburn & Oregon win          0%
Auburn loses                60%
Oregon loses                80%
Auburn & Oregon lose        98%

Even if Auburn and Oregon both lose there's a slim chance they stay #1 and #2; it would require Oregon to stay atop the polls somehow and Auburn to remain second. Basically, the voters would have to decide that they absolutely did not want to see TCU play for the title game.

2010-2011 BCS Bowl Predictor Lets You Test All 128 Outcomes

There are seven games that could reasonably affect the BCS Bowl lineup. Rather than make 128 lists of the projected final standings, I made a simple tool to show what I think will happen under all outcomes of those seven games. I call it the "BCS Bowl Predictor." Enjoy.

 

BCS Projections for Sunday, November 28 (Revised x 2): Dream Ends for Boise State, Lives on for Auburn

Everyone wants to know the BCS Standings right now!—before the games have been played, before the polls have been released—instead of just waiting a few days/hours until Sunday evening. So in addition to our projections of the Final BCS Standings, we'll also be predicting the results for the coming Sunday. Check here for the most recent updates.

After Friday's games it's true that a shake up is in the works, but not the one we thought. Two major games turned on a dime and produced the opposite of the expected result. Down 24-0, Auburn rallied and beat Alabama 28-27, while Nevada won the closest of close games and shocked Boise State 34-31 in overtime.

If Alabama had pulled it out, there would have been a huge controversy with many arguing that Auburn still deserved a title shot. It would have been even more intense if Boise had made their short, last-second field goal to win; the Broncos might have lost ground to TCU in the polls, putting the teams in a dead heat in the BCS along with Auburn. But the Tigers' win makes things a lot easier assuming they and Oregon win next week.

Saturday went mostly according to the oddsmakers' projections, except for Oklahoma beating Oklahoma State (which we picked but didn't use in these projections). Just that one major exception causes yet another shakeup in the rankings and leaves a lot of slots unpredictable.

Here are the most recent BCS standings (from November 21, 2010) and this weekend's schedule/results:

rnk  Team          rec  11/26-27 results
1    Oregon       10-0  beat #21 Arizona 48-29
2    Auburn       11-0  beat #11 Alabama 28-27
3    TCU          11-0  beat New Mexico 66-17
4    Boise State  10-0  lost to #19 Nevada 34-31OT
5    LSU          10-1  lost at #12 Arkansas 31-23
6    Stanford     10-1  beat Oregon State 38-0
7    Wisconsin    10-1  beat Northwestern 70-23
8    Ohio State   10-1  beat Michigan 37-7
9    Oklahoma St  10-1  lost to #13 Oklahoma 47-41
10   Michigan St  10-1  beat Penn State 28-22
11   Alabama       9-2  lost to #2 Auburn 28-27
12   Arkansas      9-2  beat #5 LSU 31-23
13   Oklahoma      9-2  beat #9 Oklahoma State 47-41
14   Missouri      9-2  beat Kansas 35-7
15   Nebraska      9-2  beat Colorado 45-17

With the weekend's results and coaches poll in hand, here's an update on what we foresaw for Sunday, and what the actual standings were:

The projected and final BCS top 15 for November 28, 2010 (errors in yellow):

prv  proj  true  Team          rec       prev      proj    actual
2     1     1.   Auburn        12-0    0.9682    0.9777    0.9779
1     2     2.   Oregon        11-0    0.9764    0.9764    0.9777
3     3     3.   TCU           12-0    0.8995    0.9190    0.9167
6     4     4.   Stanford      11-1    0.7763    0.8144    0.8413
7     5     5.   Wisconsin     11-1    0.7688    0.8009    0.8185
8     6     6.   Ohio St.      11-1    0.7148    0.7286    0.7632
12    8     7.   Arkansas      10-2    0.5697    0.7161    0.7189
10    7     8.   Michigan St.  11-1    0.6063    0.7235    0.6980
13    9     9.   Oklahoma      10-2    0.5041    0.6924    0.6780
5    10    10.   LSU           10-2    0.8193    0.5947    0.6067
4    12    11.   Boise St.     10-1    0.8860    0.5260    0.5805
14   11    12.   Missouri      10-2    0.4564    0.5697    0.5148
15   13    13.   Nebraska      10-2    0.4423    0.5075    0.5071
9    16    14.   Oklahoma St.  10-2    0.6815    0.4195    0.4630
16   14    15.   Virg. Tech    10-2    0.4213    0.4689    0.4396 

Auburn didn't seem likely to fall past #3 even had they lost, so it's no surprise that they hold the #2 spot after winning. In fact, they'll probably gain ground in the polls but not enough to unseat Oregon at the top. UPDATE: Now it looks like they could. It depends on the Harris poll but we have them just edging Oregon, not that it matters in the end. It's virtually a tie that the two teams' performances next week could break. UPDATE2: It was only by .002, but Auburn did capture the top spot. That could easily change next week for almost any reason.

Boise State is out of luck, of course. Their loss not only destroys their chance at the national title, it also effectively kills their BCS bowl hopes. They will likely fall out of the top ten. As mentioned, even if they'd made the field goal to win they would have been questionable to pass TCU with a last-second victory; their lead over TCU in the polls was slight and would have suffered. That point is moot, however.

Taking the most advantage of Boise's fall will be Wisconsin and Stanford. The Badgers may edge past the Cardinal for the #4 spot, but as mentioned in the last article this keeps getting predicted and doesn't happen. Particularly if Stanford keeps jumping teams in the polls; they're ahead of Ohio State in the Harris poll and could be in the Coaches poll by Sunday, too, depending on how they do on Saturday. UPDATE1: And now that the Cardinal beat Oregon State 38-0, it's more likely that they move up to #4...but their computer ranking is still an uncertainty so I've kept Wisconsin there. The placing of Stanford is significant because they're guaranteed a BCS bowl at #4 but not at #5. UPDATE2: Now that the coaches poll is out, it looks like once again the Cardinal's gains in the polls outpace the Badgers', and they'll be #4. UPDATE3: This indeed was the case, by a comfortable margin.

The next four spots are the toughest to foresee. Ohio State could land anywhere from #6 to #9; Michigan State anywhere from #6 to #8; Arkansas anywhere from #6 to #8; and Oklahoma from #7 to #9. The polls will make this a bit clearer but predicting the computers for these teams is difficult. Oklahoma State's loss means more poll gains for some of these teams, any of which could pass Ohio State in the end, but the simplest move is that none of the teams pass each other. UPDATE: Based on the coaches poll, this looks like the right order. UPDATE2: Except that Arkansas did pass Michigan State. We overestimated MSU's rise in the computer polls and underestimated Arkansas'.

Boise and LSU will fall quite a bit, with Boise ahead in the polls but getting socked by the computers for their first loss and falling behind LSU in the BCS.

Speaking of Boise, the team that beat them—Nevada—is 11-1 and will come flying into the top 15 at anywhere from 12 to 14. They could be just head of Nebraska and Missouri or just behind. So the Nevada-Nebraska-Missouri trio could be in any order, but all should be ahead of #15 Virginia Tech. After Saturday it looks like Missouri will stay ahead, since they beat Oklahoma and Oklahoma just added quite a bit of value to the computers. UPDATE: Missouri is now slated ahead of Boise State, but this assumes a bigger computer rankings leap than I think the Tigers will get. Also, Nevada got very little love from the coaches after their win, moving up only two spots; they'll be behind not only Missouri and Nebraska but also Virginia Tech, who sailed up to #11 ahead of LSU in the USA poll. UPDATE2: My gut feeling was right; Boise State didn't fall below Missouri. Nevada didn't even make the #15 spot (they were 17th), as Oklahoma State remained high enough in the computers to outflank even Virginia Tech, who is much higher in the polls.

BCS Projections for Sunday, November 28: If Auburn loses, then what?

Everyone wants to know the BCS Standings right now!—before the games have been played, before the polls have been released—instead of just waiting a few days/hours until Sunday evening. So in addition to our projections of the Final BCS Standings, we'll also be predicting the results for the coming Sunday. Check here for the most recent updates.

Last week, for the second straight weekend there was almost no change in the BCS top 15. That should change come Sunday. Not only should Boise State pass TCU, but Alabama is favored to beat Auburn so that's what we're assuming for these projections, and #12 Arkansas is favored over #5 LSU as well. So a shake-up could be in the works.

With games on both Friday and Saturday, we'll make a second set of predictions based on what happened Friday, which will be crucial since that's when #1 Oregon, #2 Auburn, and #4 Boise State play.

Here are the current BCS standings (from November 21, 2010) and this weekend's schedule:

rnk  Team          rec  11/26-27 opponent
1    Oregon       10-0  #21 Arizona (Fri)
2    Auburn       11-0  at #11 Alabama (Fri)
3    TCU          11-0  at New Mexico
4    Boise State  10-0  at #19 Nevada (Fri)
5    LSU          10-1  at #12 Arkansas
6    Stanford     10-1  Oregon State
7    Wisconsin    10-1  Northwestern
8    Ohio State   10-1  Michigan
9    Oklahoma St  10-1  #13 Oklahoma
10   Michigan St  10-1  at Penn State
11   Alabama       9-2  #2 Auburn (Fri)
12   Arkansas      9-2  #5 LSU
13   Oklahoma      9-2  at #9 Oklahoma State
14   Missouri      9-2  vs. Kansas
15   Nebraska      9-2  Colorado (Fri)

Other intra-BCS-top-25 battles include #13 Oklahoma at #9 Oklahoma State, #21 Arizona at #1 Oregon, and #19 Nevada at #4 Boise State. The higher-rated team is favored in these contests, and no other upsets are assumed here; the oddsmakers' line is used to determine the projected winners.

The projected BCS top 15 for November 28, 2010:

pre  new  Team          rec 
1     1.  Oregon        11-0
4     2.  Boise St.     11-0
2     3.  Auburn        11-1
3     4.  TCU           12-0
7     5.  Wisconsin     11-1
6     6.  Stanford      11-1
11    7.  Alabama       10-2
8     8.  Ohio St.      11-1
9     9.  Oklahoma St.  11-1
12   10.  Arkansas      10-2
5    11.  LSU           10-2
10   12.  Michigan St.  11-1
14   13.  Missouri      10-2
15   14.  Nebraska      10-2
16   15.  Virg. Tech    10-2
 

Auburn probably won't fall past #4 in the polls, considering who they've beaten and with only a loss to Alabama, and the fact that some don't like the idea of non-AQ conference teams in the national championship. If it's a blowout they could fall farther, but even a blowout won't make them fall far at all in the computer rankings, placing anywhere from 5th at lowest all the way up to remaining #1 in the individual systems, and ranking 2nd or 3rd in the composite when the top and bottom are thrown out. This means Auburn shouldn't fall past #3 in the BCS, and it's even possible they hold #2. Either way, they'll probably be in good enough position for the final #2 spot to be up for grabs given that the Tigers and Broncos both play another game, and Auburn's will be worth a lot more.

But for this week Boise State should pass both Auburn and TCU, meaning they would be #2 come Sunday. Their goal is to win big enough over Nevada to not only pass TCU, but create a buffer that prevents Auburn from having a chance to regain the #2 spot. The Horned Frogs play New Mexico which is a no-win for them, but they could hold the #3 spot if Auburn loses badly enough.

The #5 through #7 spots are up in the air. My models keep predicting that Stanford will eventually slip in the computers, holding their BCS ranking back, but it doesn't happen. So take Wisconsin's #5 ranking with a grain of salt. Working for the Badgers is their #5 poll position; some pollsters may want to drop Auburn farther than #4 (due to Cam Newton?) and Wisconsin should benefit. Then again, Stanford keeps winning solidly and the pollsters keep rewarding them, so some might have the Cardinal jump the Badgers. The other wild card is Alabama and how much they get moved up in the polls and computers for beating Auburn. They could end up as high as #5 but #7 seems more likely, as they probably won't surpass #9 in the polls.

Ohio State should just barely hold off Oklahoma State for #8, though the Cowboys have a chance to pass them with a big enough win over Oklahoma. Arkansas should jump past LSU if they beat them, and in doing so would pass Michigan State, with LSU in the mix somewhere either in front of or behind the Spartans. Missouri, Nebraska, and Virginia Tech should round out the top 15.

I'll update again after Friday's games, after Saturday's, and after the coaches poll comes out Sunday.

2010 Projected Final BCS Standings (post week 12): just 2 weeks left

This year we are projecting the Final (pre-bowl) BCS Standings each week, based on our pre-season standings and using the projected winner from each game. Every week these projections will be updated using the actual results for that week. For the most recent projection click here. This will be the last installment of this format since there are two weeks left; before the final weekend there will be only the weekly top 15 projection.

Here is the projection using our pre-season prognostications combined with results through week 12 (11/20/2010):

2010 Projected Final BCS Rankings  - post-week 12
lw	#	Team	record	BCS Bowl	Current BCS#	If they win out
1	1	Oregon	12-0	Title Game	1	1
2	2	Boise St	12-0	Title Game	4	2
3	3	Auburn	12-1	Sugar	2	2
4	4	TCU	12-0	Fiesta/Orange?	3	4
7	5	Wisconsin	11-1	Rose	7	5
6	6	Stanford	11-1	Rose	6	6
5	7	Alabama	10-2	Orange	11	7
9	8	Ohio State	11-1	Sugar	8	8
8	9	Oklahoma	11-2	Fiesta	13	9
11	10	Arkansas	10-2		12	10
12	11	Missouri	10-2		14	11
13	12	LSU	10-2	(Orange)	5	5
14	13	Virginia Tech	11-2	Orange	16	13
15	14	Oklahoma St	10-2	(Fiesta)	9	4
10	15	Nebraska	10-3	(Fiesta)	15	9
16	16	Michigan St	10-2		10	9
18	17	Utah	10-2		20	17
17	18	Iowa	8-4		24	18
19	19	Arizona	8-4		21	15
22	20	Florida	8-4		--	20

Using this projection, we get the following probable bowl pairings (favorites in bold):

BCS Championship Game:	Oregon vs. Boise State
Rose Bowl:	Wisconsin vs. Stanford
Sugar Bowl:	Auburn vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl:	Virginia Tech vs. Alabama
Fiesta Bowl:	Oklahoma vs. Pittsburgh (BCS #30)

This week's notes:

• Most changes this week are due to Nebraska's loss

Nebraska's loss was an "upset" to the projection, so they slide to #15 from #10 where they would have finished if they'd won out but lost in the Big 12 title game. Other teams slide up to fill the gap, and Oklahoma's win over them in the title game won't mean as much now so the Sooners fall to #9.

Auburn at 1 loss is still very close to remaining #2 but Boise looks like the #2 if they beat Nevada soundly enough and finish strong. Wisconsin, Stanford, and Alabama are very tight for #5 but now it doesn't look like the Tide are positioned well to jump that high for beating Auburn. It also still looks like Stanford's computer rating will fade slightly over the next few weeks, but it doesn't matter; Wisconsin and Stanford will be in the Rose Bowl as long as Auburn loses.

And Pitt at 8-4 still looks like the probable Big East winner, meaning they'll be in a BCS bowl as we've thought pretty much all year.

• Many possible bowl deviations for Fiesta, Orange

With the current assumptions (Auburn loses to Alabama, LSU to Arkansas, Oklahoma wins out) the Sugar would take Ohio State with their pick, the Orange Alabama, and the Fiesta is left with Pitt. Here are some of the more likely variations.

Orange: Virginia Tech is the only sure thing (assumes they win the ACC). Alabama will probably be the pick, but if LSU wins out the Tigers will be the obvious choice and a score for the bowl at 11-1. TCU has a chance of being picked, too, but they shouldn't hold their breath.

Fiesta: The variations of course include either Oklahoma State or Nebraska winning the Big 12, in which case the Cowboys or Cornhuskers would be the Big 12 rep. If something happens to force the Orange Bowl to take Pitt then TCU is in play here, too.

• TCU's best bet is the Sugar Bowl if Ohio State loses to Michigan

If TCU wants to be all but assured of a BCS bowl bid despite Boise State passing them (assuming that happens), then an Ohio State loss to Michigan would be a huge help, probably putting them in the Sugar Bowl.

Right now if Auburn wins the SEC at 12-1 they play in the Sugar Bowl. Ohio State at 11-1 would be a perfect matchup: a high-profile team that travels well and gets good tv ratings. If the Buckeyes lose, however, they might not be in the top 14 to qualify for an at-large bid, and they would be a hard sell at 10-2 if they fall out of the top 10.

The Sugar's other at-large choices other than TCU would include three 10-2 SEC teams (which they couldn't take), and two Big 12 teams outside the top 10 (Missouri, Oklahoma State). TCU would very likely be chosen for the Sugar in that case, with the rest of the field remaining the same.

• Cut the list to top 20 from 25

Beyond the top 20 things are getting ragged as almost of the teams there are projected to lose a game, and they could finish in any order. Not very many of them have a shot at getting into the top 14 if they win out in any case, with Nevada being an exception along with South Carolina and possibly Florida State.

After this weekend I'll have multiple Top 15 projections for various game results for the final weekend. A lot will be clearer, but most of the top teams will still have games left so nothing will be certain until the very end.

==================================================================

BCS Selection Rules for 2010-11
(simplified; full detail here):

• #1 and #2 teams go into BCS Championship game;

then, if still available:

• Rose Bowl gets Big 10, Pac 10 champs*
• Sugar Bowl gets SEC champ
• Orange Bowl gets ACC champ
• Fiesta Bowl gets Big 12 champ

After these conference winners have been placed, selections will be made in the following order:

• BCS #1 team is replaced*
• BCS #2 team is replaced*
• Sugar Bowl picks its 2nd team
• Orange Bowl picks its 2nd team
• Fiesta Bowl picks its 2nd team

*special Rose Bowl note: In replacing a Big Ten or Pac-10 team that makes the BCS title game, the Rose Bowl will select an automatic non-BCS qualifier.

Automatic qualifiers: All of the BCS conference champs must be selected, along with Notre Dame if in the top 8, any one other non-BCS-conference champ if in the top 12 (or top 16 if ranked ahead of a BCS conference champ), and in most cases either the #3 or #4 team in the BCS rankings (if they are BCS-conference teams).

Beyond the automatic qualifiers, the remaining teams are selected "at-large". At-large teams must be selected from those in the top 14.

BCS Projections for Sunday, November 21: Updated Projections and Rankings

Everyone wants to know the BCS Standings right now!—before the games have been played, before the polls have been released—instead of just waiting a few days/hours until Sunday evening. So in addition to our projections of the Final BCS Standings, we'll also be predicting the results for the coming Sunday. Check here for the most recent updates.

Another week of few upsets, but this time one top ten team did lose as Nebraska fell 9-6 to Texas A&M. Nebraska was poised to perhaps pick up a spot or two in the crowded 6 to 8 range, but now will struggle to hold on to a top 15 ranking.

Here are the current BCS standings (from November 14, 2010) and this weekend's results:

rnk  Team          rec  11/20 results
1    Oregon       10-0  idle
2    Auburn       11-0  idle 
3    TCU          11-0  idle 
4    Boise State   9-0  beat Fresno State 51-0 Fri. 
5    LSU           9-1  beat Mississippi 43-36 
6    Stanford      9-1  beat California 48-14
7    Wisconsin     9-1  beat Michigan 48-28
8    Nebraska      9-1  lost to #19 Texas A&M 9-6
9    Ohio State    9-1  beat #20 Iowa 20-17
10   Oklahoma St   8-1  beat Kansas 48-14
11   Alabama       8-2  beat Georgia St 63-7 Thurs.
12   Michigan St   9-1  beat Purdue 35-31
13   Arkansas      8-2  beat #21 Miss. St 38-31 2OT
14   Oklahoma      8-2  beat Baylor 53-24
15   Missouri      8-2  beat Iowa State 14-0
 

As expected, Nebraska held on, so the top 15 contains the same teams as last week but in a slightly different order.

The projected and actual BCS top 15 for November 21, 2010:

prev proj true Team           rec    11/14 ave  proj ave  11/21 ave
1     1    1.  Oregon        10-0    0.9753     0.9763     0.9764   
2     2    2.  Auburn        11-0    0.9687     0.9691     0.9682   
3     3    3.  TCU           11-0    0.8966     0.8868     0.8995   
4     4    4.  Boise St.     10-0    0.8634     0.8737     0.8860   
5     5    5.  LSU           10-1    0.8243     0.8243     0.8193
6     7    6.  Stanford      10-1    0.7553     0.7594     0.7763   
7     6    7.  Wisconsin     10-1    0.7258     0.7654     0.7688   
9     9    8.  Ohio St.      10-1    0.6674     0.6981     0.7148   
10    8    9.  Oklahoma St.  10-1    0.6601     0.7116     0.6815   
12   10   10.  Michigan St.  10-1    0.6066     0.6324     0.6063   
11   11   11.  Alabama        9-2    0.6151     0.6242     0.6019   
13   12   12.  Arkansas       9-2    0.5133     0.5542     0.5697   
14   13   13.  Oklahoma       9-2    0.4728     0.4754     0.5041   
15   14   14.  Missouri       9-2    0.4563     0.4606     0.4564   
8    15   15.  Nebraska       9-2    0.7203     0.4371     0.4423

Pre-coaches poll analysis - who is #3?

Oregon and Auburn were idle and will keep the top two spots. TCU was idle, too, and is in danger of falling to #4 behind Boise State, but it looks like the Horned Frogs will lose only a small amount of computer support while the Broncos will gain just a small amount. So it all depends on how much the voters extend Boise's currently slim lead, and it probably won't quite be enough.

Another possible move is for Wisconsin to take over #6 from Stanford, and again the voters will have the final say. The Badgers will pick up more slots on the computers from Nebraska's loss and could edge ahead. But Stanford's domination of Cal one week after Oregon nearly lost to the Bears is an issue that should help the Cardinal retain their spot. It should be close.

Oklahoma State will likely move past Ohio State into the #8 spot. The Cowboys and Buckeyes both will make gains in the computer rankings but only Oklahoma State will move up in the polls as Nebraska falls below them, and should inch past. Also, Michigan State as suggested on Friday will likely jump to #10, passing Alabama who is stalled in the computers by playing a I-AA team. Michigan State's close call with Purdue might not help them with the humans, though.

The final positions are up for grabs too between Nebraska, Missouri, and perhaps Virginia Tech. The Cornhuskers probably won't fall below Missouri in the polls and they'll stay close enough in the computers to be in a dead heat with the Tigers. Tie goes to the polls, where Nebraska's narrow loss and the fact they beat Missouri a few weeks ago should prevail.

Post-Coaches poll analysis

Things look about the same after the USA Today poll came out. TCU appears likely to hold onto the #3 spot. Wisconsin still could pass Stanford if the computers pan out the way we think, but again some of the computer rankings throw curves. And after seeing exactly how Nebraska fell in the USA poll, it looks like they'll be behind Missouri at #15 despite remaining ahead in the polls. Again that's dependent on the computers who might not drop Nebraska as far as we assume.

Post-announcement analysis

TCU held the #3 spot as expected, and even gained a few points, but Boise closed the gap dramatically. Stanford gained enough in the Harris poll to remain ahead of Wisconsin; the Cardinal actually passed Ohio State in that poll, but the Buckeyes still held off Oklahoma State for the #8 spot. In fact, the Buckeyes pulled away from the Cowboys a bit. Michigan State did indeed pass Alabama, though both teams lost a bit of ground. And Nebraska did end up at #15 just behind Missouri.