SportsRatings: College Football

Why on earth did the coaches pop Boise State up to #15 ???

The AP and Coaches polls pretty much move in lock-step. There are differences, particularly in that the AP will rank ineligible teams such as Ohio State, and sometimes teams will differ in the rankings between the two polls by a few spots. A 5-spot difference is fairly unusual.

So today's coaches poll was a shock when Boise State came in at #15, a full 10 spots higher than the Broncos rank in the AP poll. Call it 9 spots difference after accounting for Ohio State's presence in the AP, but still, that's huge.

It's not hard to see how it happened: the dreaded "rung" effect where a team, already in the rankings, wins its game while a number of teams ahead of it lose. The winner (in this case Boise State) gets pushed up as the other teams fall below. Certainly, beating Colorado State wasn't considered that impressive; Boise was just in the right place at the right time.

Not so in the AP poll, as the Broncos weren't in the rankings last week so they didn't get pushed up. If they had been outside of the top 25 last week in the coaches' poll, they'd probably be entering this week in the 20s.

In any case, the AP has it right. Boise State does not deserve to be #15 in the nation. #25 is about right for a team that has beat nobody and has two losses to unranked teams.

But because of the high Coaches poll ranking, the Broncos are ridiculously knocking on the door for an automatic BCS berth, which they'll get if they can finish in the top 16. They just have to beat Nevada next Saturday to win a share of the Mountain West crown, and hope that they make the top 16.

What stands in their way? Well, the Harris poll followed suit, but not quite as bad, putting Boise State at #17. The real roadblock for Boise is going to be the computer composite, where they were #30 last week and probably won't be in the top 25 this week. In fact, around #25 might be what they can expect if they beat Nevada. So even if they gain a couple spots in the polls next week, they'll probably still come up short of the top 16.

Interestingly the coaches rank Boise ahead of Kent State and Northern Illinois, both of whom are 11-1. Kent State even has a quality win—over Rutgers, another team possibly headed for a BCS bowl. Clearly, Boise State's name recognition is helping it here. Unlike in previous years when the Broncos got too little respect, this year they are getting too much respect, due to their reputation.

Kent State and Northern Illinois play each other next weekend for the MAC title, and the winner could conceivably make the top 16, perhaps finishing ahead of Boise which would steal the Broncos' automatic BCS bowl bid. To do that they'd need a UCLA loss, probably a Nebraska loss, and a Boise loss wouldn't hurt, either.

BCS Odds for Notre Dame, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Oregon, Kansas State, and FSU

Two weeks of football are left in the 2012 season, and after last weekend's carnage 7 teams still have a measureable chance of getting into the BCS championship game.

What are those odds? We looked at each team's remaining schedule and their current BCS ranking and computed rough odds for their ability to finish in the top two. For the game-winning odds we used our Strength power rating and its comparisons of offense and defensive strength, and we looked at all the relevant scenarios that could affect the team's placement. Note that there is still a lot of art rather than science in determining exactly what the pollsters will do, but we gave it our best shot.

Here is the current (11/17/2012) BCS top ten:

1. Notre Dame (11-0)
2. Alabama (10-1)
3. Georgia (10-1)
4. Florida (10-1)
5. Oregon (10-1)
6. Kansas State (10-1)
7. LSU (9-2)
8. Stanford (9-2)
9. Texas A&M (9-2)
10. Florida State (10-1)

And here is our take on the teams that have the best shot at finishing in the top two, in order:

Alabama	66%	The Crimson Tide have to do one thing: win out. If they beat Auburn and win the SEC title game, they're in. Beating Auburn is almost a foregone conclusion; we give the tide a 99% chance to beat the Tigers. The SEC championship game is a bit harder. We give them a 2/3 chance of beating Georgia in Atlanta. Dock them 1% for the chance to lose to Auburn and Alabama has a 66% chance to be in the BCS title game.
Notre Dame	55%	Notre Dame has the clearest path to the to BCS championship: Beat USC. If they fail that, they have perhaps the most convoluted path to getting back to #2. The game at USC is pretty close to a tossup by our measures; we give the Irish just over a 50% chance to win and finish #1 in the BCS standings. If they lose, they aren't quite out of it, as they would be another of the 1-loss teams and still strong in the computers. But since "backing in" to the title game is frowned upon it would make the pollsters loathe to keep them too close to the top. It's hard to say how far they'd fall—and that would be affected by the score of the USC loss—but they'd probably need losses by Florida, Oregon, and Kansas State, which adds up to under a 10% chance to happen, so that adds just under 5% to their odds, which finish at 55%
Georgia	25%	Georgia controls their own destiny, too, one of only three teams to do so. To get to the championship game the Bulldogs have to handle in-state rival Georgia Tech, then beat Alabama to win the SEC. Beat Georgia Tech is the easier part of the job, and our numbers give them almost exactly 75% winning odds against the Yellow Jackets. Against Alabama they're aided by partial home field advantage by playing in-state in Atlanta, but still have just a 1 in 3 shot to win that game. 75% x 1/3 = 25%, or a 1 in 4 chance that Georgia will be playing for the title.
Oregon	22%	Now it gets complicated, as we are past the teams that control their destiny, and since they need help from other teams the calculations get more difficult (and the outcomes less exact). Oregon is at #5 currently and has one game left against Oregon State—unless UCLA beats Stanford, in which case the Ducks would be back in the Pac-12 title game. Beating Oregon State on the road is about a 2/3 proposition. 50% of the time—the odds we give UCLA at home against the Cardinal—they'll play UCLA, and beat the Bruins 80% of the time. This gives them a 60% chance of emerging unscathed. Note that it would benefit Oregon to have the extra game, despite the fact that it gives them another chance to lose, they're going to need all the help they can get with the computers and pollsters. Winning out alone doesn't help if Notre Dame and Alabama win out. If the Irish lose they still need to pass Florida, and the best way is for the Gators to lose to FSU. If the Irish win, they need all 3 SEC teams to finish with 2 losses, which means FSU still has to win, Georgia Tech needs to beat Georgia, and Georgia has to upset Alabama. By far the more likely scenario is the Irish losing/FSU winning, which is about a 1 in 3 chance. Overall there's about a 36% chance that enough things go their way; x the 60% chance of winning out = roughly 22% chance of Oregon making it back to the title game, most likely against the SEC winner. Note that there's no guarantee Oregon will pass a 1-loss Irish team that narrowly lost to USC, or stay ahead of FSU if they beat Florida. That's why they should root for UCLA to beat Stanford.
Florida	18%	Though they're at #4 right now, Florida has a tough road ahead, and even if they do their best by beating Florida State, they won't pass the SEC winner if both win their final regular-season games. That makes a Notre Dame loss their best shot. The Gators play at Florida State, and it's going to be tough to get a win—about a 1 in 3 chance as we see it. That already cuts their odds down quite a bit. Their scenarios of hope basically require either 1) Notre Dame loses and the Gators face the SEC winner, or 2) Georgia Tech upsets Georgia and Georgia beats Alabama, leaving Florida to face Notre Dame. Scenario #1 has about a 50% chance of happening, but Florida would probably have to dominate FSU to make the pollsters want to have another all-SEC title game. Scenario #2 requires a Georgia loss (1 in 4) followed by a Georgia upset of Alabama. And this is after a required win over Florida State. It's rough for Florida that their best odds are for another all-SEC title game, which the pollsters might rebel against. But Florida is #2 in 5 of 6 computers, and they'll go to #1 if Notre Dame loses. That gives them a good chance as long as the pollsters aren't so sick of the SEC that they move someone else ahead.
Kansas State	10%	Kansas State fell from #1 to #6 after their loss to Baylor, and it's going to take some doing to get back in the top 2. But it's not impossible. First, of course, they have to beat Texas, which we see as a 2/3 chance (a lot of 2/3 chances in these game-odds, it seems). Then, they need to clear out all but one of the teams ahead of them. They'll either need Notre Dame, Oregon, and Florida to lose, hopefully putting the Wildcats in the championship game against the SEC winner. Or Georgia must lose to Georgia Tech, and upset Alabama, while two of the other three lose. That doesn't guarantee them the #2 spot, but it's close enough if you add in the slim possibility that all of the above end with 2 losses. Oregon losing another game is a 40% proposition; Notre Dame losing is about 50/50. Already down to a 20% chance—and 13.33% including their own game. They also need EITHER Florida to lose to FSU (67%) or Georgia to lose to Georgia Tech (25%). The odds of one of those happening is 75%, which we multiply by the 13.33% to get 10%. And that's as far as we're going to figure it.
Florida State	4%	#10 Florida State is in a terrible position with the computers, ranking 17th in the composite. They aren't poorly positioned in the polls, though, and a win over Florida would boost their standing quite a bit with most computers. That win alone would allow them to pass the 2-loss teams at #7, 8, and 9, which is good because the ACC title game isn't going to help them much at all. We're giving FSU a generous 2/3 chance to beat Florida in Tallahassee. Then the question is, who is their ACC opponent? It could be Miami, if the Hurricanes beat Duke and decide to play in the post-season. Otherwise UPDATE: Miami has banned itself from the post-season, so it will be Georgia Tech. Both are about 85% wins for the Seminoles, so overall FSU has about a 57% chance of finishing 12-1. Then they need help, and lots of it, to have a chance to pass Kansas State, Oregon, and either Notre Dame or the SEC winner. Florida would be out of the way, and either Georgia or Alabama will lose, too. So if Kansas State loses to Texas (1 in 3), AND Oregon loses a game (40%), AND Georgia Tech upsets Georgia AND Georgia upsets Alabama, FSU would be the only viable 1-loss team and hold a win over Florida! That could get them a date with Notre Dame. Otherwise, K-State, Oregon, and Notre Dame could lose, and FSU would have to hope to jump the Irish to face Alabama/Georgia. All of these scenarios are so inexact—and FSU has such a long way to go—that the 'Noles need every bit of help. Clemson beating South Carolina (55%) would help FSU with the computers, and it wouldn't hurt for Stanford to lose again even.

That all adds up to 200%, leaving no room for the real long shots such as LSU, Stanford, Texas A&M, and maybe even #11 Clemson, to have a crazy run to the top if the remaining weekends are both like last weekend or we have a repeat of 2007. Numbers are rounded off so there's still hope for those not mentioned, but not a lot.

I haven't calculated the exact odds for every matchup, but using the numbers above it's pretty easy to figure out the 5 most likely pairings, noting that an Alabama-Georgia pairing isn't possible:

1. Alabama vs. Notre Dame
2. Alabama vs. Oregon
3. Notre Dame vs. Georgia
4. Alabama vs. Florida
5. Alabama vs. Kansas State

2012 Final BCS Standings Projection—post-Week 11: Oregon vs. Notre Dame?

This is the Week 10 update of our projection for the final BCS standings of the year; that is, after conference championship games have been played on the final weekend. We use our pre-season rankings and strictly follow the game-by-game picks* to determine the projected record and resulting ranking. We update them with the actual results each week and see how things change. *With the exception that currently undefeated, bowl-eligible teams are automatically projected to win out.

SportsRatings Projected End-of-Season 2012 BCS Standings: week 11 (Nov. 10) results included

Previous Projection Finish	Projected 12/02/12 Finish	Team	Projected 12/02/12 Record	Current Record	Current BCS Rank	Win Out Rank	Projected BCS Bowl
2	1	Oregon	13-0	10-0	2	1	BCS Title
3	2	Notre Dame	12-0	10-0	3	2	BCS Title
4	3	Kansas St	12-0	10-0	1	3	Fiesta
1	4	Alabama	12-1	9-1	4	4	Sugar
5	5	Florida St	12-1	9-1	10	5	Orange
6	6	Florida	10-2	9-1	6	5	Fiesta
8	7	LSU	10-2	8-2	7	7
18	8	Texas A&M	10-2	8-2	8	8
11	9	Georgia	11-2	9-1	5	4
10	10	Clemson	11-1	9-1	11	10	Sugar
9	11	Oklahoma	10-2	7-2	12	11
12	12	Stanford	9-3	8-2	13	5	Rose
18	13	South Carolina	9-3	8-2	9	9
14	14	Wisconsin	10-3	7-3	--	14	Rose
13	15	Nebraska	10-3	8-2	14	7
15	16	Oregon St	9-3	7-2	16	7
17	17	Michigan	9-3	7-3	21	17
19	18	Louisiana Tech	11-1	9-1	20	18
20	19	Southern Cal	8-5	7-3	18	7
21	20	Texas	9-3	8-2	15	8
--	21	Rutgers	11-1	8-1	22	21	Orange
23	22	Oklahoma St	8-4	6-3	24	18
22	23	Boise St	10-2	8-2	--	23
24	24	UCLA	8-4	8-2	17	7
--	25	Washington	8-4	6-4	25	25

Despite Kansas State's presence at the top of the current BCS standings, it's pretty certain they won't finish there if Oregon wins out—and there's a chance they don't even hold onto #2.

First, the #1 spot. Oregon is #1 in both polls but lags among the computers, ranking 4th in the composite. But after they finish the season with Stanford, Oregon State, and USC/UCLA, their computer ranking should be #2 only to Notre Dame, who is the current composite #1. That will easily make the Ducks the #1 BCS teams (this is assuming no upsets of course).

Then the battle is for #2. Right now Kansas State has a decent lead over Notre Dame, but Oregon's rise in the computers could knock the Wildcats to #3 in many of the computers. And as the season finishes, expect the gap in the polls between #3 Notre Dame and #2 Kansas State to narrow. If it narrows enough, and the Irish hold the computer advantage, they could well sneak past the Wildcats into the #2 spot. It could be as close as Alabama/Oklahoma State last year.

While the #1 spot is pretty certainly Oregon's if they win out, the #2 spot comes down to style points. If Notre Dame struggles at all against Wake Forest, then barely beats USC, the Irish will remain #3 in the polls without gaining any ground and finish #3 in the BCS. If they beat Wake Forest easily and beat the Trojans by around the same margin as Oregon—11 points—look for Notre Dame to gain on K-State. For K-State's part, they can't let Baylor stay close, and have to make a statement against Texas.

In the end, the human polls are more important than the computers, so both teams have to make their case to be in the national championship game, and K-State has an advantage due to "poll inertia" as they currently lead. But in the end we have the Irish at #2 by a very slim margin, which will make our overall BCS bowl projections different than everyone else has right now, with Oregon and Notre Dame in the BCS title game.

Therefore, Kansas State lands in the Fiesta Bowl, with their opponent one of the projected 4 SEC teams with 2 losses: Florida, LSU, Texas A&M, or Georgia. The Bulldogs will probably rank the lowest coming off an SEC title game loss to Alabama, and Florida beat LSU who beat Texas A&M. Also the Gators can seal the deal by beating Florida State, so it makes sense to project the Gators into the Fiesta Bowl. But if FSU beats Florida the Aggies might be a strong choice due to geography.

Alabama would be in the Sugar Bowl, and since most of the rest of the eligible at-large teams are from the SEC it comes down to Clemson or Oklahoma as the opponent. Clemson has been doing well lately and would have only 1 loss, but the bowl might choose Oklahoma anyway. We'll give it to Clemson since they now project in front of the Sooners.

Florida State makes the Orange Bowl as always, whether they beat Florida or not, and now that Louisville lost we revert to our previous projection of Rutgers winning the Big East. Stanford ends up in the Rose Bowl against projected Big Ten winner Wisconsin.

The only possible BCS buster is Louisiana Tech, who may finish ahead of Rutgers but has to make the top 16. That appears doubtful as only half the computers have them in the top 25 at this point.

2012 SportsRatings Top 25 - week 11: Notre Dame rises to the top

The SportsRatings Top 25 is our answer to the AP and coaches' polls. This subjective "poll" properly reflects head-to-head results and give additional consideration to teams who have victories over other top 25 teams.

The Debate Begins: With #1 Alabama's 29-24 loss to Texas A&M—and Louisville's loss to Syracuse—four teams are left undefeated.  Only three are legitimate considerations. Neither Oregon or Ohio State has a top 25 win but the Ducks have been a dominant team while the Buckeyes have lacked punch all year.

But it's Notre Dame who takes our top spot. Arguably the weakest team of the top three, they nevertheless have the best résumé with wins over Oklahoma and Stanford, and at this point in the year résumé is the top consideration. They defeated Oklahoma just as soundly as #2 Kansas State. But teams avoided upset this weekend, the Irish topping Boston College 21-6 and the Wildcats dispatching TCU 23-10. That leaves Oregon—possibly the best team of the three—at #3; they ran away from Cal 59-17 late Saturday.

The next three spots are occupied by the SEC. #4 Georgia holds a win over #5 Florida and blanked Auburn 38-0 Saturday. #5 Florida struggled against Louisiana-Lafayette—not a bad team by any means—winning just 27-20 on late TDs, but they have an incredible slate of victories that was made even better by Texas A&M's win. Alabama falls to #6, remaining ahead of 10-0 Ohio State who was idle this weekend. The Buckeyes are both weak in true strength and lacking in prominent wins.

Jumping from #10 to #8, LSU knocked former #18 Mississippi State out of the top 25 (37-17) and also holds a win over new #10 Texas A&M, who gains 4 spots for their upset of Alabama. In between, Florida State holds at #9 after edging Virginia Tech 28-22 on Thursday.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week 11 2012 (thru 11/10/2012)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Résumé: Losses/important wins
2	1	Notre Dame	10-0	w@Oklahoma 30-13, Stanford 20-13ot
3	2	Kansas State	10-0	w@Oklahoma 24-19
4	3	Oregon	10-0
5	4	Georgia	9-1	L@SCar 35-7; w=Florida 17-9
6	5	Florida	9-1	L=Ga 17-9; wLSU 14-6, TexAM 20-17, SCar 44-11
1	6	Alabama	9-1	L TexAM 29-24; w@LSU 21-17, MissSt 38-7
7	7	Ohio State	10-0
10	8	LSU	8-2	L@Fla 14-6, Bama 21-17; wSCar 23-21, @TexAM 24-19, MissSt 37-17
9	9	Florida State	9-1	L@NCState 17-16; wClemson 49-37
14	10	Texas A&M	8-2	L FLA 20-17, LSU 24-19; w@Bama 29-24, @LTech 59-57, @MissSt 38-13
11	11	Oklahoma	7-2	L ND 30-13, KSt 24-19; w=Tex 63-21
12	12	Clemson	9-1	L@FSU 49-37; wBallSt 52-27
17	13	South Carolina	8-2	L@LSU 23-21, @FLA 44-11; wGeorgia 35-7
8	14	Louisville	9-1	L@Syr 45-26; wCincy 34-31ot
15	15	Louisiana Tech	9-1	L TexAM 59-57
19	16	Stanford	8-2	L@Wash 17-13, @ND 20-13ot; wOreSt 27-23
20	17	Kent State	9-1	L@Kentucky 47-14; w@Rutgers 35-23, BallSt 45-43
21	18	Rutgers	8-1	L KentSt 35-23
13	19	Oregon State	7-2	L@Wash 20-17, @Stan 27-23; wUCLA 27-20
24	20	N. Illinois	9-1	L=Iowa 18-17; w@BallSt 35-23
16	21	Toledo	8-2	L@Ariz 24-17ot, BallSt 34-27; wCincy 29-23
22	22	Cincinnati	7-2	L@Toledo 29-23, @Lou 34-31ot
23	23	Texas	8-2	L WVa 48-45, =OK 63-21
--	24	UCLA	8-2	L@Cal 43-17, OreSt 27-20
--	25	Ball State	7-3	L@KentSt 45-43, NIU 35-23, @Clem 52-27; w@Toledo 34-27
		out:
18	--	Mississippi State	7-3	L@Bama 38-7, TexAM 38-13, @LSU 37-17
25	--	Ohio	8-2	L@MiamiOH 23-20, BowlGreen 26-14

Oklahoma 's two losses are now to the #1 and #2 teams, so in theory they might be the 3rd best team in the country. For now we have them just outside the top 10; they beat Baylor just 42-34 so being ranked #3 is going to have to wait. Clemson crushed Maryland 45-10 to hold at #12. South Carolina beat Arkansas 38-20 and their two losses to top 10 teams plus a top ten win is better than #14 Louisville's loss to an unranked team (Syracuse, 45-26) and overtime win against Cincy. The Cardinals fell 6 spots with their first loss.

Louisiana Tech didn't lose, but their defense took a beating against lowly Texas State. The Bulldogs pulled out a 62-55 win and hold at #15. It doesn't seem to matter much who they play, as they almost came back to beat Texas A&M weeks ago, losing 59-57. Yes, they were a field goal away from beating the team that just beat Alabama.

Stanford topped Oregon State 27-23 and jumps to #16 while the Beavers fall from #13 to #19. At #17, Kent State has two top 25 wins to go with their crippling loss to Kentucky; the Flashes beat Miami of Ohio 48-32 to go to 9-1. One of their victims, Rutgers, is just behind at #18 after topping Army 28-7.

Northern Illinois was idle but gained a top 25 win as Ball State enters the top 25 at #25; with just one loss, we move the Huskies up to #20. At 7-3, Ball State has losses to three top 25 teams and now a 34-27 win over Toledo, who falls from #16 to #21, just ahead of former victim Cincinnati who beat Temple 34-10 Saturday. Texas holds at #23 after beating Iowa State soundly, 33-7.

Mississippi State lost its third consecutive game Saturday. All three losses were to top 10 foes, but each was a blowout, and the Bulldogs have no impressive wins to offset that. They exit the top 25 along with Ohio who lost to Bowling Green 26-14 on Wednesday. Filling the gap is UCLA, who has a close loss to Oregon State and a win over another 2-loss team, Nebraska. They also have a blowout loss to 3-8 California, so we think they're vastly overrated in the AP and coaches poll. Both those polls have them below Nebraska, too, which is just wrong.

Next Weekend: #3 Oregon has one of its toughest challenges of the season in #16 Stanford. #20 Northern Illinois and #21 Toledo face off in the MAC, while in the Big East #18 Rutgers takes on #22 Cincinnati.

2012 Final BCS Standings Projection—post-Week 10: Oregon looks strong at #2

This is the Week 10 update of our projection for the final BCS standings of the year; that is, after conference championship games have been played on the final weekend. We use our pre-season rankings and strictly follow the game-by-game picks* to determine the projected record and resulting ranking. We update them with the actual results each week and see how things change. *With the exception that currently undefeated, bowl-eligible teams are automatically projected to win out.

SportsRatings Projected End-of-Season 2012 BCS Standings: week 10 (Nov. 3) results included

Previous Projection Finish	Projected 12/02/12 Finish	Team	Projected 12/02/12 Record	Current Record	Current BCS Rank	Win Out Rank	Projected BCS Bowl
1	1	Alabama	13-0	9-0	1	1	BCS Title
2	2	Oregon	13-0	9-0	3	2	BCS Title
3	3	Notre Dame	12-0	9-0	4	3	Fiesta
4	4	Kansas St	12-0	9-0	2	4	Fiesta
5	5	Florida St	12-1	8-1	10	5	Orange
6	6	Florida	10-2	8-1	6	5	Sugar
7	7	Louisville	12-0	9-0	9	7	Orange
10	8	LSU	10-2	7-2	7	8
8	9	Oklahoma	10-2	6-2	12	9	Sugar
9	10	Clemson	11-1	8-1	13	10
11	11	Georgia	11-2	8-1	5	4
12	12	Stanford	9-3	7-2	14	5	Rose
13	13	Nebraska	10-3	7-2	16	7
14	14	Wisconsin	10-3	6-3	--	14	Rose
17	15	Oregon St	9-3	7-1	11	4
18	16	Texas A&M	9-3	7-2	15	7
15	17	Michigan	9-3	6-3	--	17
19	18	South Carolina	9-3	7-2	8	9
20	19	Louisiana Tech	11-1	8-1	20	19
21	20	Southern Cal	8-5	6-3	19	6
22	21	Texas	9-3	7-2	17	8
16	22	Boise St	10-2	7-2	--	22
23	23	Oklahoma St	8-4	5-3	--	20
24	24	UCLA	8-4	7-2	18	5
--	25	Ohio U.	12-1	8-1	--	25

Alabama and Notre Dame escaped with wins last week and Oregon stayed ahead of USC, while Kansas State and Louisville had an easier time. There was no change in our projected top 7 teams. Oregon became an even more solid #2 as their year-end computer ranking could be the equal of Alabama's if not better. Notre Dame's computer composite will remain strong but their narrow win over Pitt further underscores how much ground they'd have to gain up in the polls. And Kansas State's computer ranking will ease a bit as other teams play tougher games, and they have little chance of passing the top two in the human polls.

The Florida/FSU winner should finish #5, and either way Florida goes to the Sugar Bowl. Their opponent should be either Oklahoma or Clemson, depending on style points and who that bowl wants. The Big Ten is still up in the air but Wisconsin and Nebraska have the inside track to the title game.

After Boise State's loss the chance of a BCS buster is almost nil. Louisiana Tech won't gain much at all from their current #20 and at least one Big Ten and Big East team should be ahead of them. Ohio jumps into the projection but even winning out doesn't get them near the top 16.

2012 Final BCS Standings Projection—post-Week 9: USC the spoiler now

This is the Week 9 update of our projection for the final BCS standings of the year; that is, after conference championship games have been played on the final weekend. We use our pre-season rankings and strictly follow the game-by-game picks* to determine the projected record and resulting ranking. We update them with the actual results each week and see how things change.

We've switched gears a little bit on our project, since by this point all anyone really cares about is what happens if everyone goes undefeated. So since both USC and Oklahoma lost last weekend and for all intents and purposes are out of the title picture, we'll focus on the remaining 5 undefeated teams who are eligible for post-season play.

SportsRatings Projected End-of-Season 2012 BCS Standings: week 9 (Oct. 27) results included

Previous Projection Finish	Projected 12/02/12 Finish	Team	Projected 12/02/12 Record	Current Record	Current BCS Rank	Win Out Rank	Projected BCS Bowl
--	1	Alabama	13-0	8-0	1	1	BCS Title
--	2	Oregon	13-0	8-0	4	2	BCS Title
--	3	Notre Dame	12-0	8-0	3	3	Fiesta
--	4	Kansas St	12-0	8-0	2	4	Fiesta
--	5	Florida St	12-1	8-1	9	5	Orange
--	6	Florida	10-2	7-1	7	5	Sugar
--	7	Louisville	12-0	8-0	10	7	Orange
--	8	Oklahoma	10-2	5-2	12	8	Sugar
--	9	Clemson	11-1	7-1	13	9
--	10	LSU	10-2	7-1	5	4
--	11	Georgia	11-2	7-1	6	4
--	12	Stanford	9-3	6-2	14	5	Rose
--	13	Nebraska	10-3	6-2	20	7
--	14	Wisconsin	10-3	6-3	--	14	Rose
--	15	Michigan	9-3	5-3	--	15
--	16	Boise St	11-1	7-1	19	16
--	17	Oregon St	9-3	6-1	11	4
--	18	Texas A&M	9-3	6-2	16	7
--	19	South Carolina	9-3	7-2	8	8
--	20	Louisiana Tech	11-1	7-1	25	20
--	21	Southern Cal	8-5	6-2	17	3
--	22	Texas	9-3	6-2	23	8
--	23	Oklahoma St	8-4	5-2	24	7
--	24	UCLA	8-4	6-2	--	5
--	25	Michigan St	7-5	5-4	--	22

And what we get is slightly different than last week's test of the four main undefeated teams. Last week we said that Notre Dame would join Alabama in the top two. But even though the Irish followed through and beat the Sooners, they now come out #3 to Oregon in our simulation. The reason? USC's loss to Arizona weakened on of Notre Dame's best future wins.

Oregon probably plays USC twice, so the Trojans' loss didn't do the Ducks any favors either, but they're #2 in the human polls where that doesn't have much of an effect. And the Ducks beat Arizona, whose value with the computers went up. Add in Michigan's loss—which hurts Notre Dame with the computers—and the Irish look to have a tougher time overcoming Oregon's human poll status.

Kansas State appears to be a distant #4 in the current win-out scenario, while Louisville would need everyone to lose, and then several 1-loss teams to lose, to be in the discussion.

Among the current 1-loss teams, Florida State and Florida are in the best position, and the winner of that game has hope if the current undefeated teams fall. If Alabama and Oregon make the BCS championship game and Kansas State and Notre Dame fill out the Fiesta Bowl, Florida would be the Sugar Bowl replacement team and FSU would go to the Orange Bowl as the ACC winner. The Gators would take on Oklahoma—or possibly Clemson, if the Tigers actually beat South Carolina—and the Seminoles would face Louisville.

The Rose Bowl is looking like the weakest BCS bowl by far, with Stanford facing the Big Ten title winner between Wisconsin and Nebraska. With Boise State just outside the BCS equation and looking in, if the eligible Big Ten teams fall further—which they would if Ohio State wins out—then the Broncos can slip in as a required pick. And Louisville might only need to lose one game to drop below the Broncos, too; the Big East has been weak for years but in the last 2 weeks front-runners Cincinnati and Rutgers suffered losses to MAC teams. So while the Big Ten is surprisingly Boise's best bet for automatic qualification, it's not their only hope.

The takeaway is that USC is now the big spoiler, taking that role over from Notre Dame who is now one of the main players. The Trojans face Oregon this weekend and possibly again in the Pac-12 title game, and they take on the Irish in their last game. Alabama doesn't need any help but Kansas State should now be USC's biggest fan.

Speaking of Alabama/Oregon/USC, this Saturday of course has two of the year's most anticipated games, at least from a pre-season vantage point. Back then LSU and USC were in the top 3 in the polls and their matches with Alabama and Oregon respectively were circled on many calendars. The games have diminished in some eyes, mainly because of LSU's loss to Florida and USC's 2 losses, but they still probably represent Alabama and Oregon's biggest hurdles left to going undefeated and meeting in the BCS final.

BCS: What happens if Alabama (or Florida), Oregon, Kansas State, and Notre Dame all go undefeated?

Only two teams can make the BCS championship game, since the playoff doesn't arrive for a few more years. As of the games of October 20, 2012, there are still eleven undefeated teams in college football: Alabama, Florida, Kansas State, Oregon, Notre Dame, Mississippi State, Rutgers, Louisville, Ohio, and Ohio State.

Only seven can finish the season undefeated. Alabama, Florida, and Mississippi State are all on a collision course from which only one will emerge. Oregon and Oregon State play each other, as do Rutgers and Louisville.

If seven teams were to finish undefeated, only four would have a shot at making the BCS championship game. Ohio State is ineligible; the Rutgers/Louisville winner would go to a BCS bowl but not the championship game; and Ohio would be fighting for a BCS bowl bid at all.

So in a multiple-undefeated-team scenario, the following are viable BCS championship contenders:

• Alabama, Florida, or Mississippi State
• Oregon or Oregon State
• Kansas State
• Notre Dame

Having 3+ viable undefeated BCS championship candidates isn't unprecedented, and 2004 is the most obvious example. That year USC, Oklahoma, and Auburn finished undefeated and #1, 2, and 3 in the final BCS standings. Two other teams, Utah and Boise State, were also undefeated and finished #6 and #9.

So what happens this year if there are four undefeated teams? Who has the edge in making that top two spots, and who could be left out? Here we make a few projections.

Note that in making these projections, we also are making assumptions for every other game that is to be played, so changing the results of other teams can have an effect. We'll look at some of those possibilities, too.

Scenario 1: Alabama, Oregon, Kansas State, and Notre Dame go undefeated

  1. Alabama                    13-0  192.05
  2. Notre Dame                 12-0  164.43
  3. Oregon                     13-0  156.73
  4. Kansas St                  12-0  119.65

Analysis: If Alabama is undefeated they'll retain the top spot in the polls pretty easily, while the #2 through #4 would be pretty tightly packed. The computers will favor the Tide, too, making Alabama #1 by a pretty wide margin.

The number that follows each team is a computation we've included to suggest how far apart the teams are spaced. Notre Dame and Oregon are pretty close but the computers favor the Irish. It's close enough that "style points" could decide things via the human pollsters.

The reason Notre Dame has an advantage is that they play both Oklahoma and USC, and beating those teams diminishes the best wins for both Oregon and Kansas State. The Wildcats won't have many foes left that are highly-ranked in the BCS as the Big Twelve teams will whittle one another's ranking down quite a bit.

Scenario 2: Florida, Oregon, Kansas State, Notre Dame

  1. Florida                    13-0  237.15
  2. Notre Dame                 12-0  168.61
  3. Oregon                     13-0  162.42
  4. Kansas St                  12-0  122.00

If Florida wins out instead of Alabama, the Gators are an even more certain number one. That's because they'd play every team Alabama would, plus Florida State, making them #1 in every computer ranking and just as dominant in the polls. The rest of the field would be unaffected.

Scenario 3: Mississippi State, Oregon, Kansas State, Notre Dame

  1. Notre Dame                 12-0  161.97
  2. Mississippi St             13-0  155.99
  3. Oregon                     13-0  155.02
  4. Kansas St                  12-0  118.37

The Bulldogs are the only undefeated SEC team that might miss making the top two. It would be a tossup between they and the Ducks, and style points would mean everything. They would have to beat Alabama, LSU, and Florida/Georgia, but it would come down to how those other teams did. If Alabama and Florida's only loss is to Mississippi State, then the Bulldogs will get in. If those teams lose other games, then it comes down to style points. Mississippi State is starting from a lower current position in the polls, so they'd have some trouble getting up to Oregon's level. This is the most uncertain scenario.

Scenario 4: Oregon State is undefeated instead of Oregon

  1. Alabama                    13-0  193.63
  2. Notre Dame                 12-0  165.92
  3. Oregon St                 *12-0  155.86
  4. Kansas St                  12-0  121.52

If Oregon State cleans the table instead of Oregon (*note that their game with Nicholls State would be cancelled) the results are pretty much the same as before, but with the Beavers replacing the Ducks: Alabama and Notre Dame are #1 and #2. With Florida instead of Alabama, Florida and Notre Dame are #1 and #2. With Mississippi State undefeated, it's again Notre Dame #1, with Mississippi State and Oregon State in a virtual tie.

The one way things change for the Pac-12 teams is if they are both undefeated except for their head-to-head matchup. If that happens, then it's Alabama vs. the Pac-12 champion for the title:

  1. Alabama                    13-0  195.20
  2. Oregon                     13-0  161.66
  3. Notre Dame                 12-0  155.74
  4. Kansas St                  12-0  122.49

Oregon State is a bit tighter with Notre Dame in that outcome, but still ahead at #2. And if it's Mississippi State from the SEC, then Oregon/Oregon State comes out #1, with Notre Dame #2

  1. Oregon St                  12-0  156.36
  2. Notre Dame                 12-0  153.37
  3. Mississippi St             13-0  150.02
  4. Kansas St                  12-0  121.06

That result is a virtual tie among the computers and probably the pollsters too, and would then depend on style points and the results of other games. In the same scenario but with Oregon undefeated, the Ducks would have an easier time due to the polls.

Scenario 5: Notre Dame holds the cards for Kansas State, Oregon

In all of these scenarios Kansas State gets left out even at 12-0. As mentioned, their problem is they've already beaten their best opponent (Oklahoma) and no opponent can finish with less than 2 losses, and even that seem unlikely in the Big Twelve. But if Oklahoma beats Notre Dame, suddenly Kansas State is a lot more viable:

  1. Alabama                    13-0  188.37
  2. Kansas St                  12-0  155.40
  3. Oregon                     13-0  153.51
  4. Oklahoma                   11-1  110.48

That result, of course, knocks Notre Dame out of the running which gives the Wildcats a 1-spot jump automatically, and with Oklahoma's added value with the computers the Wildcats could win a tight battle with Oregon for the #2 spot.

Of course, Notre Dame can also help out Oregon—even more—by losing to USC. Since Oregon probably plays USC twice, it's more imperative that the Trojans win that game; it could vault Oregon to the top spot.

  1. Oregon                     13-0  202.80
  2. Alabama                    13-0  185.14
  3. Kansas St                  12-0  115.70
  4. Notre Dame                 11-1  101.54

In Summary

• Things look very good for any undefeated SEC team, with Alabama and Florida basically locks. Mississippi State is questionable to finish #2 among four undefeated teams, but odds are probably with them.
• Notre Dame is in great shape to finish #2 under most scenarios. They'd need a lot of luck to finish #1, and a bit of back luck to finish #3, as far as the computers go. If they keep winning tight, though, the pollsters might favor Oregon enough to keep the Irish down a spot in the composite.
• Oregon is a close #3 in most 4-team outcomes. But not very much would have to change for them to make it to #2, and the human pollsters might make it happen anyway. To boost their computer ranking they need Oregon State and USC to do well. Oregon State is in basically the same boat as Oregon, with less chance for help from the pollsters.
• Kansas State is odd man out among the 4. They need to keep winning style points from the pollsters and, quite frankly, hope the other teams lose. Oklahoma could help them A LOT this weekend.
• The polls are the wild card: No one knows exactly how the teams will rank under these scenarios. We can assume it would be pretty tight among the top four, especially from #2 to #4, in pretty much every scenario. Oregon and Kansas State, in particular, need style points, as the SEC winner and Notre Dame will have a great computer score if undefeated.
• The computer rankings can shift a lot based on "other" games: Basically each team wants its "best victims" to win as much as possible. Oregon's fate changes a lot depending on whether Oregon State has 1 loss or 3 losses. Texas Tech finishing with 2 losses each would be great for Kansas State.

Games that matter the most this week:

1. Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma: If Notre Dame loses, they're of course eliminated from any undefeated team scenario. But if they win, it makes things very difficult for Kansas State. To the Wildcats, Notre Dame beating Oklahoma is like Obama winning Ohio is for Mitt Romney: everything else would have to work out perfectly.
2. Alabama vs. Mississippi State: This is, of course, an elimination game for the undefeated-teams scenario.
3. Florida vs. Georgia: This game probably determines who wins the SEC East. For Mississippi State, a Florida win is a big help as they really want an undefeated Gator team to face them in the SEC final. Alabama doesn't have to worry about who wins this one. And needless to say, Florida's chances of being undefeated take a huge hit if they lose to Georgia.
4. Kansas State vs. Texas Tech: This game underscores Kansas State's problem. Texas Tech already has a loss and will have at least two if K-State is unbeaten. Oklahoma State, TCU, and Texas have 2 losses and will have 3 if K-State goes unbeaten. That leaves just Oklahoma (with a loss to Notre Dame), Texas Tech, and West Virginia with 2 losses. But those six teams have some interplay left, leading to more losses. You can see how the Big Twelve is set up to grind themselves down so that Kansas State's wins aren't as impressive to the computers. Part of this is due to the fact that every team plays every other team in the conference. Playing nine conference games means more guaranteed losses than it does for the SEC teams, who play eight. Pac-12 teams play nine conference games too, but some teams avoid each other so there's a better chance of a few more low-loss teams. Add to that the fact that there is no conference championship game in the Big 12 anymore, denying them a last chance to boost their ranking. In short, Kansas State is screwed by circumstance in any four-team undefeated scenario, so they have to depend on style points. Winning big can help them in the polls, and the polls can overpower the computer rankings. The Wildcats need to beat Texas Tech big in case Notre Dame beats Oklahoma.

2012 Final BCS Standings Projection—post-Week 8

This is the Week 8 update of our projection for the final BCS standings of the year; that is, after conference championship games have been played on the final weekend. We use our pre-season rankings and strictly follow the game-by-game picks to determine the projected record and resulting ranking. We update them with the actual results each week and see how things change.

Once again the bowl projections remain the same and this time the entire top ten is the same as last week's projection. The only team that drops out is North Carolina, which existed as a "ghost" like Ohio State since they're not eligible for post-season. Plus, a few teams that weren't in last week's actual BCS rankings—but were in our projection (Michigan and Wisconsin)—have joined the BCS standings, so things are lining up as we predicted. But in the next few weeks there are sure to be some big deviations from our projection, since there are games of major importance coming up and by now, our pre-season picks are picking a lot of "upsets" that probably won't occur. It does, however, mirror the general chaos that tends to occur in the last several weeks of the season.

This week we add a new column: the "Win Out Rank" column which estimates where each team would end up if they won out. These are to be taken one-at-a-time, that is, for each team the ranking is where that team would be if they win out and everything else stays the same. That's how you can get seven instances of teams reaching the #1 spot.

SportsRatings Projected End-of-Season 2012 BCS Standings: week 8 (Oct. 20) results included

Previous Projection Finish	Projected 12/02/12 Finish	Team	Projected 12/02/12 Record	Current Record	Current BCS Rank	Win Out Rank	Projected BCS Bowl
1	1	Southern Cal	12-1	6-1	9	1	BCS Title
2	2	Oklahoma	11-1	5-1	8	2	BCS Title
3	3	LSU	12-1	7-1	6	3	Sugar
4	4	Florida St	12-1	7-1	12	4	Orange
5	5	Alabama	11-1	7-0	1	1	Orange
6	6	Rutgers	12-0	7-0	15	6	Sugar
7	7	Florida	10-2	7-0	2	1
8	8	Oregon	11-2	7-0	4	1	Rose
9	9	Notre Dame	10-2	7-0	5	1	Fiesta
10	10	Stanford	9-3	5-2	17	4
12	11	Texas	10-2	5-2	23	11	Fiesta
16	12	Kansas St	9-3	7-0	3	1
11	13	Michigan	11-2	5-2	22	13	Rose
13	14	Georgia	11-2	6-1	10	4
14	15	Clemson	11-1	6-1	18	15
15	16	Oklahoma St	9-3	4-2	--	8
17	17	South Carolina	9-3	6-2	13	11
[20]	[18]	Ohio State	10-2	8-0	[NA]	[NA]
18	18	Boise St	11-1	6-1	21	18
21	19	Texas A&M	9-3	5-2	20	14
20	20	Louisiana Tech	11-1	6-1	--	20
24	21	Oregon St	9-3	6-0	7	1
22	22	Wisconsin	10-3	6-2	25	15
25	23	Louisville	11-1	7-0	16	9
23	24	Nebraska	9-3	5-2	--	13
19	25	West Virginia	8-4	5-2	19	9

Dropped out: [25] North Carolina

Since all our top teams have a projected loss—and our top four have an actual loss already—if any of Alabama, Florida, Oregon, Notre Dame, Kansas State, or Oregon State win out to go undefeated, they're in the driver's seat at #1. If more than three do, it's yet another BCS scandal; at most there could be four major undefeated teams. Either Rutgers and Louisville can be undefeated, too, but neither will reach the top two. The Cardinals only bumped up a couple of spots for beating USF and are now projecting at 11-1.

Since we're picking almost all of the currently undefeated teams to end up with 2 or more losses, most finish well outside of the BCS title game. But each time they defy our picks—as Kansas State did in dramatic fashion by beating West Virginia—they move up. The Wildcats are now projected to finish #12, and just behind Texas who gets into the Fiesta Bowl. Looked at another way, Kansas State's near-worst-case outcome (3 more losses) and Texas' best-case scenario (5 wins) puts the Longhorns only one spot ahead of the Wildcats. Any deviation from that and K-State is in the Fiesta Bowl, or better; they project at #1 at 12-0, and at 11-1 they probably displace Oklahoma for the #2 spot.

There were very few other changes. Michigan dropped a few spots, somewhat for their near-loss to Michigan State, but more for Penn State's win over Iowa. The Wolverines don't play the Lions but they play Iowa, and that result weakened their schedule a bit. It boosted Ohio State's, so the Buckeyes move up to a virtual #18.

Texas A&M moved up two spots even as they lost to LSU. They kept it close, and SMU beat Houston to boost their schedule strength. The Aggies have lost only to Florida and LSU, but even if they win out their upside is limited as they play two FCS teams this season.

Missing Teams: Current BCS #11 Mississippi State, #14 Texas Tech, #24 Ohio

The Bulldogs aren't in our projection for the final BCS due mainly to their next three games: Alabama, Texas A&M, and LSU. If they manage to win even one of those they'll probably make it. Texas Tech is already just outside the projected final top 25, but they have a rough road ahead, too: Kansas State, then Texas and Oklahoma State among their last five games. One upset and they'll be in, too. Ohio already is projected to have just one loss, but it keeps them out of the MAC title game. Beat Miami of Ohio this coming weekend and the Bobcats will project to 13-0. It also helps them that Penn State is doing so well lately. They're not getting a lot of style points—i.e., they're beating some pretty bad teams by narrow margins—which probably puts a lid on their progress in the human polls, below BCS at-large level.

Key Games Next Weekend

There are some huge games next weekend, involving the current #1, 2, 3, and 5 BCS teams. Of course these our only our #5, 7, 12, and 9, but all four are undefeated and control their destiny to some extent or another for the BCS title game.

• #2 Oklahoma vs. #9 Notre Dame: If the Irish win this one, not only does it knock the Sooners out of the BCS title game, it eliminates them. And Notre Dame suddenly becomes a very real BCS title game contender, not just a spoiler. An Oklahoma win is one of the things we project will propel the Sooners back toward the very top of the rankings.
• #5 Alabama vs. Mississippi State. We covered the Bulldogs' enigma above: undefeated but unloved by our projection. This is one of the reasons. Mississippi State has had it easy so far and this should be a rude awakening. If they get the upset, however, Alabama is knocked from the top of the current rankings, and possibly out of a BCS bowl in our projections. Mississippi State would jump well into the top ten of the current standings but we would still project further losses and no BCS bowl for the Bulldogs. Beating Alabama would be just the start of what they have to do to get there.
• #7 Florida vs. #14 Georgia: The fourth ranked team in a row that the Gators are playing, Georgia is still our favorite to win the SEC East. Florida can take over that spot, though it wouldn't help them much in our projection because they'd inherit Georgia's projected loss in the SEC title game! So the Bulldogs wouldn't fall very much by losing this one, either.
• #12 Kansas State vs. Texas Tech: Again, Texas Tech isn't in our current projection because of games like this one, which we originally predicted the Wildcats will win. If the Red Raiders win, they'll be in the top 25 but not a very high level, and the Wildcats would regress a few spots lower. In current BCS terms, a Wildcats win won't push them any higher, but a Texas Tech win could move the Red Raiders into the top ten, with Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Tech all having one loss, but Oklahoma having the rankings edge if they beat Notre Dame.
• #13 Michigan vs. #24 Nebraska: An important game in the Big Ten Legends division, and therefore in the Rose Bowl race. We have the Wolverines winning, and if the Cornhuskers pull off the upset it would be good news for any BCS busters as it would drop the winning Big Ten team pretty low in the final rankings. But Boise State and Louisiana Tech don't look like they'll finish in the top 16 anyway. We'll see what Ohio U. does next week as they could be in that picture.

2012 Final BCS Standings Projection—post-Week 7

This is the Week 7 update of our projection for the final BCS standings of the year; that is, after conference championship games have been played on the final weekend. We use our pre-season rankings and strictly follow the game-by-game picks to determine the projected record and resulting ranking. We update them with the actual results each week and see how things change.

This week almost nothing changed as there was only one real upset according to our picks; that was Texas Tech defeating West Virginia, who falls four spots and is "out of favor" in terms of achieving a BCS bowl. The bowl projections themselves remain the same as last week.

The big development was the arrival of the first official BCS rankings of the season. There weren't any major surprises but the current rankings give a clue as to how much things would have to move to match our projections. Here are our latest projections, with the current (actual) BCS ranking in the column 2nd from the right:

SportsRatings Projected End-of-Season 2012 BCS Standings: week 7 (Oct. 13) results included

Previous Projection Rank	Projected 12/02/12 Rank	Team	Projected 12/02/12 Record	Current Record	Current BCS Rank	Projected BCS Bowl
1	1	Southern Cal	12-1	5-1	10	BCS Title
2	2	Oklahoma	11-1	4-1	9	BCS Title
3	3	LSU	12-1	6-1	6	Sugar
4	4	Florida St	12-1	6-1	14	Orange
5	5	Alabama	11-1	6-0	1	Orange
6	6	Rutgers	12-0	6-0	15	Sugar
9	7	Florida	10-2	6-0	2
7	8	Oregon	11-2	6-0	3	Rose
8	9	Notre Dame	10-2	6-0	5	Fiesta
11	10	Stanford	9-3	4-2	20
10	11	Michigan	11-2	4-2	--	Rose
12	12	Texas	10-2	4-2	25	Fiesta
13	13	Georgia	11-2	5-1	11
14	14	Clemson	11-1	5-1	19
16	15	Oklahoma St	9-3	3-2	--
19	16	Kansas St	8-4	6-0	4
18	17	South Carolina	9-3	6-1	7
17	18	Boise St	11-1	5-1	22
15	19	West Virginia	9-3	5-1	13
[20]	[20]	Ohio State	10-2	7-0	[NA]
20	20	Louisiana Tech	11-1	5-1	--
22	21	Texas A&M	9-3	5-1	18
21	22	Wisconsin	10-3	5-2	--
23	23	Nebraska	9-3	4-2	--
--	24	Oregon St	8-4	5-0	8
[--]	[25]	North Carolina	10-2	5-2	[NA]
--	25	Louisville	10-2	6-0	16

Dropped out: #24 Utah, #25 Vanderbilt

At the top we still have USC and Oklahoma fighting for the national title, with LSU a close 3rd. Currently LSU is 6th, ahead of both the Trojans and Sooners. If they all win out, will those two teams pass the Tigers? LSU would win six more games including the SEC title game, while USC and Oklahoma would go 7-0, which is an advantage in some of the computers and with the pollsters. LSU would have to beat Alabama, and that would help them a lot. But USC would beat Oregon twice, while Oklahoma has a number of high-ranked Big 12 teams left on their schedule. Both USC and Oklahoma play Notre Dame (currently #5) also. It would be very close between these three teams in this scenario—just like it was in 2003 when all three of these same teams had a single loss!

Alabama's computer ranking would be hit hard by a single loss and non-participation in the SEC title game, enough for Florida State to be ahead of them. The ACC is tremendously weak but the Seminoles would have a win over Florida—currently #2—to help them out. Of course, Alabama fully controls their own destiny to the national championship game, something that none of the top four teams can say as they each already have a loss.

Rutgers doesn't control their destiny either, as finishing 12-0 looks to put them behind the top 1-loss teams. But #7 Florida and #8 Oregon do; they're currently #2 and #3. And our #9 Notre Dame is very close to controlling its destiny, currently at #5; we have the Irish losing to USC and Oklahoma though, making a BCS bowl but not the big one.

Because Stanford and Texas were expected to lose last weekend those losses don't hurt them in the projection. The Cardinal won't make a BCS bowl, however, while Texas could—but they must win out. That might not seem likely after last week's bombardment at the hands of Oklahoma, but they're still in position as every team in the Big Twelve has a rough road ahead. Case in point: Kansas State, currently #4 in the BCS rankings, plays West Virginia, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, and Texas yet. Those could just as easily be all wins (in which case a BCS title berth is likely) or all losses. The Big Twelve race is still wide open; even Iowa State made the initial BCS rankings at #24.

Big Ten, ACC weakness shows in current, projected rankings

Michigan is the one team we pick to make a BCS bowl despite not making the initial BCS rankings. In fact, there are no Big Ten teams in the initial BCS rankings, which is crazy. It's a product of weak early schedules, and many losses by pretty much every conference team, and the fact that Ohio State is ineligible for post-season play and therefore unranked in the BCS standings. The Wolverines are co-leaders in the Legends division while Wisconsin is #3 in the Leaders, which makes them the leader among eligible teams. The other three squads who can win the Leaders division are a combined 0-8.

The ACC is also very weak, which is why Clemson is only expected to reach #14 despite winning out. Style points will be needed to get them much higher. They're only #28 in the current computer ranking. Neither the ACC nor the Big Ten is likely to get more than one team in a BCS bowl.

BCS Buster less likely than at any time this season; Big East showdown looming

Potential BCS busters Louisiana Tech and Boise State had a bad weekend. The Bulldogs made it close but came up empty against Texas A&M, meaning they will not finish undefeated which was their only realistic shot at a BCS bowl. If they win out they'll reach about #20. Boise State beat Fresno State but Michigan State was upset by Iowa, which in turn hurts Boise. The six remaining games on their schedule won't do much at all for Boise State in the computer rankings, and even playing UNLV, Colorado State, and Hawaii will harm them in some of the calculations.

The Big East is having a sort of a renaissance with three teams currently undefeated and all of them in the BCS standings: Rutgers at #15, Louisville at #16, and Cincinnati at #21. We have Rutgers finishing very high after cleaning their slate, while Cincinnati hits a rough patch and falls back. Louisville is now projecting at 10-2 and if they beat Rutgers on the final weekend they'll take over the automatic bid from the Scarlet Knights. This might be another well-scheduled year for the Big East like 2005 when West Virginia, Louisville, and Rutgers provided drama until late in the season by all remaining undefeated.

Missing teams: Mississippi State, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, TCU, Iowa State

There are five teams in the current BCS standings that we don't have making it to the final top 25. Mississippi State is #12 and currently undefeated, and being from the SEC they essentially control their destiny all the way to the BCS title game. But we think the conference will catch up to them soon and they'll finish with several losses. Likewise Texas Tech, TCU, and Iowa State in the Big Twelve, with the Red Raiders probably having the most potential to remain in the hunt. As mentioned, Cincinnati is our odd man out among the three currently undefeated Big East teams.

Key Games Next Weekend

Big games next weekend and what they mean:

• USC and Oklahoma should have an easy time remaining #1 and #2 in our projection as the Trojans host 1-5 Colorado and the Sooners host 1-5 Kansas.
• #3 LSU faces #21 Texas A&M. If the Aggies are going to be a BCS factor they need to get this upset. LSU of course needs a win to stay alive for the BCS title, and probably for a BCS bowl hopes period.
• #7 Florida plays #17 South Carolina. Since we project a Florida win, a South Carolina upset would give the Gamecocks the SEC East title instead of Georgia, harming Florida and FSU. In context of the current rankings, the Gators are #2 and Gamecocks #7, so it will be a big deal for next week's "actual" rankings.
• #16 Kansas State vs. #19 West Virginia: This one is also a bigger deal for the current BCS rankings, where the Wildcats are #4 and Mountaineers #12. But for the long run it determines how far Kansas State can go, and whether West Virginia can get back in the hunt. A Kansas State win would bump the Wildcats up in our projection, and probably end West Virginia's BCS bowl hopes.

2012 Final BCS Standings Projection post-Week 6: After upheaval, Notre Dame a key player

This is the Week 6 update of our projection for the final BCS standings of the year; that is, after conference championship games have been played on the final weekend. We use our pre-season rankings and strictly follow the game-by-game picks to determine the projected record and resulting ranking. We update them with the actual results each week and see how things change.

SportsRatings Projected End-of-Season 2012 BCS Standings: week 6 results included

Previous Projection	Projected 12/02/12 Rank	Team	Projected 12/02/12 Record	BCS Bowl
3	1	Southern Cal	12-1	BCS Title
4	2	Oklahoma	11-1	BCS Title
1	3	LSU	12-1	Sugar
2	4	Florida St	12-1	Orange
5	5	Alabama	11-1	Orange
8	6	Rutgers	12-0	Sugar
9	7	Oregon	11-2	Rose
7	8	Notre Dame	10-2	Fiesta
22	9	Florida	9-3
10	10	Michigan	11-2	Rose
12	11	Stanford	9-3
6	12	Texas	10-2	Fiesta
11	13	Georgia	11-2
15	14	Clemson	11-1
21	15	West Virginia	10-2
13	16	Oklahoma St	9-3
14	17	Boise St	11-1
24	18	South Carolina	9-3
16	19	Kansas St	8-4
[18]	[20]	Ohio State	10-2
17	20	Louisiana Tech	11-1
19	21	Wisconsin	10-3
18	22	Texas A&M	9-3
20	23	Nebraska	9-3
23	24	Utah	9-3
--	25	Vanderbilt	9-3

Dropped out: #25 BYU

Despite all the upheaval in the rankings this week, the same ten teams are still projected to go to BCS bowls as were last week. But many of them are in different venues.

Both LSU and Florida State lost and dropped out of the projected BCS championship game; they are replaced by USC and Oklahoma, but all four of those teams has a loss now and none controls their destiny.

USC can insure that no Pac-12 team finishes ahead of it, but the Trojans would finish below both an undefeated SEC and Big 12 team; Oklahoma can't prevent Kansas State from going undefeated, so they don't even control their destiny in their conference race; LSU controls their destiny in the SEC East and therefore the Sugar Bowl berth, but that might not put them in the top two in a number of scenarios—and in any case they still have to get past Alabama among others. Finally, Florida State is hard-pressed to be in the top two even if they win out since the ACC is so pathetic this year. Their only hope resides with Florida; the Gators would have to win the SEC and go undefeated except for a loss to the Seminoles. Even then, there can't be both an undefeated Pac-12 or Big Twelve team.

Who does control their own destiny to the BCS title game? Alabama, for certain, and Oregon in almost all cases. Any undefeated team from the SEC, Pac-12, or Big Twelve is hard to ignore, but three undefeated teams means someone is crowded out. Rutgers even at 12-0 is crowded out by 1-loss teams most likely, and those would have to thin considerably.

Adding to the intrigue, Notre Dame also controls their own destiny and would be a viable BCS championship candidate if undefeated, as their schedule is very tough and they actually play both the projected #1 and #2 teams! If the Irish don't win out, they can certainly play spoiler to one or both of those teams. And if they lose to both, they're still in line for a top-8 finish which guarantees them a BCS bowl berth. In reality, a top 14 finish should be all it takes as the first bowl that can get the Irish probably will.

For now, LSU winning the SEC and FSU winning the ACC puts those teams in the Sugar and Orange bowls. Texas' loss drops them to #12, which is still eligible unlike West Virginia's #15, so the Longhorns are in the Fiesta Bowl thanks to Oklahoma ascending to the title game. The Fiesta has first pick and takes Notre Dame; the Sugar has 2nd pick and won't take another SEC team so they're left with Rutgers; and the Orange takes Alabama. The Longhorns and Sooners play next weekend and a Texas win would refigure the picture again.

The upset winners: Florida, West Virginia, and South Carolina

The Gators gained the most in our projection—moving from an afterthought at #22 up to BCS bowl contention at #9—by beating LSU. We're calling for their season to hit a few bumps with close losses in three games but they clearly control their destiny to the BCS title game. They still play Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida State.

West Virginia moved from #21 to #15 and is still not projected to make a BCS bowl. The Mountaineers control their destiny to the Fiesta Bowl at a minimum however. Key games are against Oklahoma and Kansas State, the only other undefeated Big Twelve team.

South Carolina jumped to #18 but still isn't the projected SEC East winner yet. They face LSU and Florida over the next two weeks as well as Clemson at the end of the season.

BCS Busters and others:

It was a bad week for BCS busters. The ascendance of so many SEC and Big 12 teams into the upper reaches of the projected rankings means there's much less chance that a non-AQ conference winner gets into the top 12 for an automatic berth.

Boise State and Louisiana Tech both slid back a few spots despite winning. Independent BYU (whom we'd count as a BCS buster, while Notre Dame doesn't) slid off the chart also despite winning. Meanwhile Vanderbilt upset Missouri and hopped back onto the scene. The Commodores are priced to perfection and have no shot at a BCS bowl, but their last six games are fairly easy by SEC standards (Auburn, UMass, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee, Wake Forest) and winning all of them isn't out of the question. First they'd have to upset Florida, however. #24 Utah is also 2-3 and even winning out wouldn't presently put them in contention.

Key Games Next Weekend

More big games next weekend and what they mean:

• #2 Oklahoma vs. #12 Texas - One of these teams will be eliminated from the national title picture, and probably from the Big Twelve title race as well. We have Oklahoma winning in the projection above, so a Texas victory changes things.
• #3 LSU vs. #18 South Carolina - A Gamecock win would knock LSU out of the SEC title game, and probably put South Carolina in on the SEC East side. South Carolina would be competing with Florida for the Sugar Bowl in this scenario.
• #8 Notre Dame vs. #11 Stanford  - Stanford could actually be the spoiler for Notre Dame here. This victory is key to Stanford's slim BCS title hopes, as Notre Dame later plays USC and Oklahoma. The Irish would be a borderline BCS team if they lose, but could still finish in the top 14.
• #9 Florida vs. #25 Vanderbilt - Vandy is only 2-3 yet we have them winning an upset here. Florida needs to not have a letdown after their big win over LSU in this potential trap game; if they win here they become the SEC East favorite.
• #20 Louisiana Tech vs. #22 Texas A&M - Louisiana Tech is projected to be 11-1—with this game the only thing standing between the Bulldogs and an undefated season. Win this one and suddenly the BCS picture changes, with Louisiana Tech a serious contender for a top-12 spot and an automatic bid.

2012 Final BCS Standings Projection Week 5 update: Stanford loss, Texas win clear up picture

Presenting the Week 5 update of our projection for the final BCS standings of the year; that is, after conference championship games have been played on the final weekend. We use our pre-season rankings and strictly follow the game-by-game picks to determine the projected record and resulting ranking. We update them with the actual results each week and see how things change.

SportsRatings Projected End-of-Season 2012 BCS Standings: week 5 results included

Previous Projection	Projected 12/02/12 Rank	Team	Projected 12/02/12 Record	BCS Bowl
1	1	LSU	13-0	BCS title
2	2	Florida St	13-0	BCS title
3	3	Southern Cal	12-1	Rose
4	4	Oklahoma	11-1	Fiesta
5	5	Alabama	11-1	Sugar
13	6	Texas	11-1	Sugar
7	7	Notre Dame	10-2	Orange
9	8	Rutgers	12-0	Orange
8	9	Oregon	11-2	Fiesta
10	10	Michigan	11-2	Rose
12	11	Georgia	12-1
6	12	Stanford	9-3
11	13	Oklahoma St	9-3
14	14	Boise St	11-1
16	15	Clemson	11-1
17	16	Kansas St	8-4
18	17	Louisiana Tech	11-1
[19]	[18]	Ohio State	10-2
23	18	Texas A&M	9-3
15	19	Wisconsin	10-3
22	20	Nebraska	9-3
19	21	West Virginia	9-3
20	22	Florida	8-4
25	23	Utah	9-3
24	24	South Carolina	8-4
--	25	Brigham Young	8-4

Dropped out: #21 Michigan State

Last week there were a couple of bowl projections that could have been controversial if chosen by the bowl representatives. Stanford was ahead of Oregon yet we gave the Ducks the Fiesta bid, while Texas got the Sugar Bowl bid despite being behind Oklahoma State and being projected to lose to the Cowboys.

In the former case we figured there'd be more interest in the Ducks, and they would hold a "win" over Stanford. The Sugar Bowl likewise would want Texas a lot more than Oklahoma State, and if the Longhorns lost on the road in a close game it could be justified—though likely criticized.

Last weekend's games cleared up both controversial "picks" as Stanford lost to Washington, dropping them far below Oregon, and Texas beat Oklahoma State, making the Longhorns a virtual shoo-in for a BCS bowl if they finish 11-1.

Other than those two outcomes, there was very little more than incidental movement among the top 16 teams; in fact, the bowl projections remain exactly the same as last week.

There were, however, "upsets" in both major Big Ten games, with Wisconsin falling to Nebraska and Ohio State beating Michigan State. But the Big Ten's standing in the BCS this year is not good, and Michigan (or whoever wins the league) looks like the only BCS bowl team. Ohio State in ineligible for post-season play, so even as they rise to 10-2 they move up just one "virtual spot" and we don't give them the division title of course; that stays with the Badgers for now, and they fall to #19. Nebraska moves up to #20 while Michigan State projects to 7-5 now and isn't even on the radar.

Texas A&M demolished Arkansas and moved up a few spots; if they have more success in the SEC than we think, they'll move up higher. BYU inched onto the radar after beating Hawaii 47-0, but they already have 2 losses so further "progress" will be tough, requiring them to upset Notre Dame, perhaps. It's probably more likely that they will be upset themselves in the next few weeks by either Utah State or Oregon State, two teams who have far outplayed their pre-season rankings.

Key Games Next Weekend

Quite a few games next week are key to the BCS outcome:

• #1 LSU at #22 Florida: LSU hasn't looked good lately, and the smart money is on Alabama to make the BCS title game. We'll stick with the LSU upset pick for the long haul, but if the Tigers don't play well in the rest of their schedule they won't be in the SEC title game even if they beat the Tide. Hopefully for their sake the 38-22 win over Towson was completely due to looking ahead to Florida. The Gators are projected to lose 4 games including this one, so a win would vault them into the BCS discussion quickly. Being from the SEC, however, they need to nearly go undefeated to be one of the conference's two top teams. Winning the East division is their first order of business.
• #21 West Virginia at #6 Texas: Just after icing their Sugar Bowl berth in our projection, the Longhorns have to "prove it" by beating West Virginia. The Mountaineers scored 70 on Baylor but Texas' defense might be one of the best in college football—this game will tell. West Virginia will be looking a lot better in our projection if they win but still not BCS-bowl worthy. However, both teams control their own destiny to the Fiesta Bowl, and probably to the BCS title game; one team will lose that control on Saturday.
• #11 Georgia at #24 South Carolina: These teams, like Florida, are vying for the SEC East crown so that they might win the SEC title game and with it a Sugar Bowl berth. And since both are undefeated, like all the other SEC teams in our featured games they control their destiny to a BCS championship game berth. A South Carolina win doesn't make the Gamecocks our favorite to win the division, however, and unless undefeated, the division winner probably doesn't pass LSU and Alabama as the two BCS reps. So this game has to be treated as a must-win for any BCS bowl chance for either team.
• #3 USC at #24 Utah: The Trojans are gone but not forgotten, and our projection has them rising to within an inch of Florida State, waiting for the Seminoles to trip up. Utah was supposed to be good this year but their 2-2 start has put that into question. If they want to get back into contention for a BCS bowl, winning this game would help. It's their last chance to make a big splash, too, as they don't play Oregon or Stanford—which is also the reason for their strong record projection. The other "hot" Pac-12 teams—Oregon State, UCLA, Washington, ASU—are all still projected to finish 7-5 or so, and will need another "upset" or two to get on the list.
• #20 Nebraska at #[18] Ohio State: Can the Buckeyes play spoiler again? Nebraska is one of several teams looking to depose Michigan in the Legends division, and then gain a Rose Bowl bid by beating the rep from the depleted Leaders side. Ohio State would be the favorite there but they aren't eligible. We had the Buckeyes winning this game pre-season, so a Cornhusker victory would move Nebraska within striking distance of BCS consideration, as the Big Ten struggles to find two teams worthy of consideration.

2012 Final BCS Standings Projection: Week 3 update - Stanford win puts Notre Dame in Fiesta

Presenting the Week 3 update of our projection for the final BCS standings of the year; that is, after conference championship games have been played on the final weekend. We use our pre-season rankings and strictly follow the game-by-game picks to determine the projected record and resulting ranking. We update them with the actual results each week and see how things change.

SportsRatings Projected End-of-Season BCS Standings: week 3 results included

Previous Projection	Projected 12/02/12 Rank	Team	Projected 12/02/12 Record	BCS Bowl
1	1	LSU	13-0	BCS title
4	2	Oklahoma	12-0	BCS title
2	3	Southern Cal	12-1	Rose
3	4	Florida St	13-0	Orange
5	5	Alabama	11-1	Sugar
6	6	Michigan	12-1	Rose
17	7	Stanford	10-2
11	8	Oregon	11-2
7	9	Georgia	12-1
8	10	Wisconsin	11-2
15	11	Notre Dame	9-3	Fiesta
10	12	Boise St	11-1	Sugar
13	13	Oklahoma St	10-2	Fiesta
24	14	Rutgers	11-1	Orange
14	15	Texas	10-2
12	16	Clemson	11-1
16	17	Utah	10-2
(18)	(18)	Ohio State	9-3
9	18	South Florida	10-2
18	19	Michigan St	8-4
19	20	Nebraska	8-4
--	21	Florida	8-4
21	22	West Virginia	9-3
20	23	South Carolina	8-4
22	24	Arkansas	8-4
23	25	Louisiana Tech	10-2

Dropped out: #25 Texas A&M

Stanford's upset of USC re-shuffled our bowl lineup, but the main beneficiary wasn't the Cardinal—rather it's Notre Dame that got the biggest boost and now looks likely to be in the mix for a Fiesta Bowl bid.

Most importantly, of course, the Trojans fell from the #2 slot and therefore would be headed to the Rose Bowl, not the BCS Championship game against LSU. Instead, Oklahoma is back in that spot again. Why not 13-0 Florida State? Well, this week's terrible ACC performance—3 losses to Big East teams including one by projected ACC title game opponent Virginia Tech—downgraded FSU's projected year-end computer ranking. It's also why Clemson fell from #12 to #16.

USC, in fact, drops only to #3, ahead of both FSU and 1-loss Alabama. Or rather, ahead of the LSU/Alabama loser, as either team could occupy that space. The short rationale is that USC still controls their destiny to the Pac-12 title game, while the LSU/Alabama loser won't be going to the SEC title game. If USC beats Oregon, Notre Dame, and the Pac-12 North winner, they'll be right up there with an undefeated FSU whose biggest win will be Clemson. USC would have one more FBS win than the Seminoles, who played two FCS teams.

Stanford makes a big jump, from projected #17 to projected #7, but we still have USC winning the Pac-12 championship and facing Michigan in the Rose Bowl. The Cardinal win also elevated future opponent Notre Dame to #11, making them eligible as an at-large selection. This scenario would spark a big debate as to whether Notre Dame, Stanford, or Oregon is more deserving of a BCS pick. But if Notre Dame is eligible, they'll probably be the first one taken, and the Fiesta Bowl (now with Big 12 runner-up Oklahoma State) has first choice.

The Pac-12 teams won't be available as 2nd choice either, as Boise State looks to have an automatic bid at #12 and the Big East gets an auto-bid as well. Rutgers' upset win over South Florida puts the Scarlet Knights as the favorite; we think the Sugar would rather have an 11-1 Boise State than an 11-1 Rutgers, leaving the latter in the Orange.

Boise State's fate in this scenario is largely dependent on Rutgers. If South Florida had won, they'd still be in the top ten and Boise would be #13. A non-BCS conference winner is only automatic in the top 12, or if they're in the top 16 and ahead of a BCS conference winner. As it stands, they have some leeway with Rutgers finishing even 11-1, but if the Knights beat Arkansas next week Rutgers moves up and the scenario changes again. It will be touch and go all year for Boise (assuming they keep winning) as they're "priced to perfection" in this projection. But a week after rooting for Rutgers to win, they should root for them to lose this time around.

Florida in the race but has a way to go to catch Georgia, let alone LSU/Alabama

There were only two "upsets" in the rankings—Stanford over USC, and Rutgers over USF—but Florida's win over Tennessee was one that affected the rankings as the Gators move in at #21. Their projected record rose to a respectable 8-4, and they jump South Carolina and Arkansas to become the 4th-ranked SEC team here. The problem is that only two teams are selected per conference at most, and LSU and Alabama currently have a lock on the BCS title game and Sugar Bowl. Only the East winner can shake things up in the title game, and right now that's Georgia. Florida plays the Bulldogs but they also play LSU, so the Gators have a tougher road to winning the division. They also play Florida State so their odds of being in the national title mix are low.

Key Games Next Weekend

• Florida State (4) vs. Clemson (16)
  Winning this game is the only way Clemson gets into the national title discussion, and indeed if they lose it their odds of an ACC crown are low. Their BCS bowl at-large odds at 11-1 are fairly low, too. A Tiger win would make Clemson the front-runner for the ACC title and they'd project to 13-0...but probably not in the top two since their schedule isn't particularly tough. An FSU win doesn't help the Seminoles as it's already figured in.
• Michigan (6) vs. Notre Dame (11)
  Probably the game of the week. The Wolverines have almost no chance to get back in the national title mix so a loss here wouldn''t change much—they'd still be favored to win the Big Ten and go to the Rose Bowl. But it would help Notre Dame immensely, pretty much sealing the deal for a Fiesta Bowl bid if they finished 10-2. Then, games vs. Stanford and USC would decide if the Irish could take it even to the next level. If Michigan wins, Notre Dame remains borderline at 9-3.
• Rutgers (14) vs. Arkansas (24)
  The Razorbacks pretty much hit bottom Saturday against Alabama, but the loss was expected. Losing to Rutgers would put them off the board, and it would vault the Scarlet Knights into the top ten with a 12-0 projection. It's almost impossible for a Big East team to seriously enter the national title picture while there are other projected undefeated teams, so it wouldn't affect their BCS bowl standing. They'd move up to the Sugar Bowl, though, if they were undefeated. Meanwhile, they'd probably knock Boise State out of their auto-bid status in the top 12, and one of the Pac-12 teams would replace them.
• Louisiana Tech (25) vs. Illinois
  This game is important because it's one of the Bulldogs' 2 expected losses (the other is the postponed Texas A&M game). If they beat Illinois they project to 11-1 and would narrow the gap with Boise State in the race for highest-ranked conference winner. The Bulldogs likely need to be undefeated to reach a BCS bowl but this is the first important step.

Rutgers win puts Boise State back in BCS race, again

Just when you thought the BCS was safe from BCS busters, Boise State is firmly back in the mix after Rutgers 23-13 upset of South Florida.

You may have thought that the Broncos' much less talented 2012 squad, who suffered an opening-week loss and stands 0-1 as of Saturday morning, could not threaten—for the first time in years—to make it to one of the four most lucrative bowl games...but you'd be wrong.

With South Florida's loss, the premier Big East team is now 1-1 and faces Florida State later in the year. Rutgers, the team that beat them, looks to be 11-1 at best and that probably wouldn't put them ahead of a projected 11-1 Boise State team. And if Boise State finishes ahead of the top Big East team—and in the top 16—they're in.

And as of right now—looking at things strictly game-by-game—they should make it:

Projected final BCS standings, 12/02/2012

  1. LSU                        13-0 
  2. Southern Cal               13-0 
  3. Oklahoma                   12-0 
  4. Florida St                 13-0 
  5. Alabama                    11-1 
  6. Michigan                   12-1 
  7. Georgia                    12-1 
  8. Wisconsin                  11-2 
  9. Boise St                   11-1 
 10. Oregon                     11-2 
 11. Clemson                    11-1 
 12. Oklahoma St                10-2 
 13. Rutgers                    11-1 
 14. Texas                      10-2 
 15. Notre Dame                  9-3 
 16. Utah                       10-2 
 17. Ohio State*                 9-3 
 18. Stanford                    9-3 
 19. Michigan St                 8-4 
 20. South Florida              10-2

How Boise State makes the BCS

Several things have to happen for Boise to make a BCS bowl, as usual.

1. They have to go undefeated the rest of the way and finish 11-1. This always seems to be a given with Boise—they have to win out. But what's different this year is that they already have a loss and finishing 11-1 should be good enough, whereas in other years it wasn't.
   
   The key is that they suffered their loss early, and in a close game to a team that's currently in the top ten. In the past few years they've lost games late in the year. This year's team clearly isn't as good as the last few years, but the schedule is even friendlier from here on out.
   
   
2. They have to finish in the top 16. You might ask if an 11-1 Boise State team with a very easy schedule would make it into the top 16 in the final BCS standings, and it's a fair question. But it's pretty clear the answer is yes, they would.
   
   Right now—even at 0-1—Boise State is already #26 in the coaches poll. They only need to advance one place per week to reach the top 15. And the computers will rank them slightly higher. There's no doubt an 11-1 Boise would reach the top 16.
   
   Any one non-AQ conference winner that finishes in the top 12 gets an automatic bid, but it's possible but not certain that the Broncos at 11-1 would be in the top 12.
   
   
3. They have to finish ahead of the Big East winner, and any other BCS busters, if they finish from #13 to #16. Right now they're looking good in this department but things could change if another Big East power emerges. They also look much more safe than the last two years in terms of fellow BCS busters taking the sole guaranteed BCS buster slot, which went to TCU (now with the Big 12) two years ago.
   
   
4. It helps if Michigan State—and the rest of their schedule—does well. Boise State's 2012 schedule looked terribly weak in the pre-season, with only the Michigan State game standing out as a daunting challenge. But several of their opponents have outperformed expectations, including Nevada (upset California), San Diego State (beat Army 42-7), and Colorado State (beat Colorado). This helps them in the computer rankings mainly.
   
   And if Michigan State wins the Big Ten, then the human voters will look back at Boise State's 17-13 road loss to the Spartans as a plus rather than a negative.

Why Boise State Could Fall Short

If any of the points above don't happen, then Boise State's 2012 BCS run could fall short. But there are really only two potential scenarios that are guaranteed to put the Broncos back in the Las Vegas bowl:

1. Losing a game. At 10-2 the Broncos chances fall dramatically. Not to zero, but close. Losing two games would completely eliminate them.
   
   Can they win out? The Broncos aren't nearly as good as the teams of the last two years, and those teams didn't remain unbeaten down the stretch. And as Boise's opponents outperform, their threat rises.
   
   Boise plays BYU next Thursday and Southern Miss two weeks after that. They face Wyoming and Nevada on the road. Each game is winnable, but can they win all four? Given our pre-season analysis, their odds of winning their final 11 games was just 8%, and with their opponents' performance so far that has fallen to about 6%.
   
   In other words, despite being favored in every game from here out, the cumulative expectation is that the Broncos will lose at least one game—and probably two—in the coming months. This is by far the biggest pitfall for Boise, as it's stopped them the last two seasons when they were a top ten team.
   
   
2. A Big East power emerging. Remember, a BCS buster must finish ahead of at least one of the automatic qualifiers to become an "automatic" themselves. The Big East as usual seems to be the only conference that might not have a high-ranking finisher. South Florida appears to be out of the way, but what about Rutgers, the team that beat them? The Scarlet Knights play Arkansas next weekend, and if they win that they could finish ahead of Boise State. A few weeks ago the idea of Rutgers beating Arkansas was far-fetched, but now it doesn't seem that way.
   
   And if Rutgers loses next weekend—or sometime thereafter—who else is a potential Big East power? Only Louisville (2-0) and Cincinnati (1-0) are still undefeated in the league, so one of those two would have to be it. The Cardinals are in the top 25 and are the media favorite to win the league. They have some tough three games coming up—North Carolina, Florida International, and Southern Miss—but if they emerge from that unscathed they have the potential to end with a high ranking. Cincy plays Virginia Tech later this month and that's why their odds are considerably lower.
   
   In the end, though, it always seems the Big East winner has multiple losses, and the league leader hasn't finished ranked high for quite a while. We don't expect this year to be any different.
   
   And this year *is* different for its lack of fellow BCS busters to compete with Boise State for the only guaranteed spot. As of right now, only Louisiana Tech appears poised to challenge them, and the Bulldogs have yet to play Texas A&M. BYU and Nevada look like the other most prominent BCS busters and Boise State plays both of them and thus controls their own destiny in that regard.

What's the verdict? Given the last few seasons it appears that the Big East winner will have multiple losses and finish outside the top 15. No other team looks like a viable BCS buster. Thus it comes down to Boise State, and if they can win out.

This is where it gets tricky. One a game-by-game basis—picking the favorite in each—Boise finishes 11-1 and goes to a BCS bowl. But if you were to similate the season 1,000 times that would rarely happen, and most of the time the Broncos finish with 3 losses. Only if they go unbeaten through October will the Broncos be even 50% likely to finish 11-1.

So we're back where we've been with Boise State for the last several years. Both times those teams—far better than this year's squad—have stumbled despite being favored in every game, so the 2012 Broncos probably won't win out. Our BCS projections will continue to show them at 11-1 unless they lose, since we have to pick a winner for each game not a fuzzy cumulative record. But expect the Broncos to stumble somewhere as in years past.

Just don't assume that their early loss has put them out of the BCS picture. In fact, although they don't technically control their own destiny to a BCS berth, an 11-1 finish would make them as close to a sure thing as you can get.

2012 Final BCS Standings Projection: Week 2 update - Pac-12 boosts USC

Presenting the Week Two update of our projection for the final BCS standings of the year; that is, after conference championship games have been played on the final weekend. We use our pre-season rankings and strictly follow the game-by-game picks to determine the projected record and resulting ranking. We update them with the actual results each week and see how things change.

SportsRatings Projected End-of-Season BCS Standings: week 2 results included

Previous Projection	Projected 12/02/12 Rank	Team	Projected 12/02/12 Record	BCS Bowl
1	1	LSU	13-0	BCS title
4	2	Southern Cal	13-0	BCS title
3	3	Florida St	13-0	Orange
2	4	Oklahoma	12-0	Fiesta
5	5	Alabama	11-1	Sugar
6	6	Michigan	12-1	Rose
12	7	Georgia	12-1
7	8	Wisconsin	11-2	Fiesta
9	9	South Florida	11-1	Sugar
11	10	Boise St	11-1	Orange
14	11	Oregon	11-2	Rose
10	12	Clemson	11-1
8	13	Oklahoma St	10-2
13	14	Texas	10-2
16	15	Notre Dame	9-3
17	16	Utah	10-2
25	17	Stanford	9-3
(17)	(18)	Ohio State	9-3
20	18	Michigan St	8-4
18	19	Nebraska	8-4
21	20	South Carolina	8-4
24	21	West Virginia	9-3
15	22	Arkansas	8-4
--	23	Louisiana Tech	10-2
19	24	Rutgers	10-2
22	25	Texas A&M	8-4

Dropped out: #19* North Carolina, #23 Missouri

In our end-of-year projections, of the four "undefeated" teams LSU is far and away ahead due to schedule strength, while the other three are packed very tight. Any advantage in the projected computer rankings can move #2, #3, and #4 around, and this week the Pac-12's great performance boosted USC back into the #2 spot and the national championship game. Meanwhile Oklahoma State's loss took the shine off the Sooners' best future win and Oklahoma fell to #4, now destined for the Fiesta Bowl.

Alabama and Michigan remained at #5 and #6 and projected for the Sugar and Rose Bowls. Michigan would face Oregon if everything plays out as above.

Georgia's win at Missouri—a minor upset in our pre-season rankings—makes the Bulldogs undefeated except for a loss to LSU in the SEC championship game. As the #3 SEC team they're out of luck as far as the BCS bowls are concerned unless they make it to the BCS championship game.

Surprisingly, Wisconsin's loss to Oregon State didn't harm the Badgers that much over the long term. They still have to clean the slate in the Big Ten up until the Big Ten title game—easier said than done considering how they've played so far—but they're still in line for the Fiesta Bowl against the Sooners if they can. The Fiesta Bowl has first "pick" of at-large teams, and it would come down to Wisconsin, Boise State, or Clemson as Georgia is SEC's #3 and Oklahoma State and Texas are Big Twelve teams. What would throw that off is Notre Dame gaining another spot to get into the top 14, which probably puts the Irish in for sure.

BCS Busters: Boise State in striking distance, and Louisiana Tech has an outside chance

Boise State didn't play and yet they move up another spot, to #10, in the projection. If they finish in the top twelve they're an automatic slection, but they're still behind South Florida and as long as there is a Big East team ahead of them they won't be selected if they're lower than #12. USF barely beat Nevada and they have many more games that tough on their schedule, so only a top-16 finish might be needed. But Boise, too, could easily trip up, and they face Nevada later as well.

Joining the top 25 this week is Louisiana Tech from the WAC. The Bulldogs beat Houston and have only two projected "losses" on their slate: at Illinois on the 22nd, and the rescheduled Texas A&M game on October 13th. They'd need to win those, finish ahead of Boise, and be in the top 16 and ahead of at least one BCS conference winner (or in the top 12). They also play at Virginia before the WAC season starts.

Pac-12 Upsets Boost League Teams

Oregon State, Arizona, and UCLA upset Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, and Nebraska this weekend. While only Oklahoma State (down 5 spots) suffered major damage, Pac-12 teams got a big boost. In addition to USC (up 2) and Oregon (up 3 to #11), Stanford took a big leap from #25 to #17 and even Utah—who lost on Friday to Utah State—moved up one spot. The Utes have to follow through and beat all three of those teams to "cash in" on their schedule upgrade, naturally. They also play Arizona State who beat Illinois (minor upset) so that's four teams on their schedule that got upgraded.

The SEC loses luster

With their dominance of the polls and these projections, the SEC was bound to take a hit when they start infighting. Case in point: Georgia's rise in the projection is accompanied by Missouri dropping off the charts altogether. And Texas A&M fell to Florida and now resides at #25. The worst hit was of course suffered by Arkansas, who lost in overtime to Louisiana-Monroe; they fall from #15 to #22 and every team slated to play them took a small hit, too, in the future computer ratings (including Rutgers, who falls from #19 to #24).

Other than Missouri, only North Carolina—not officially included as they're ineligible—fell off the list from #19 after losing to Wake Forest.

Key Games Next Weekend: USC/Stanford, Michigan State/Notre Dame, USF/Rutgers, Bama/Arkansas

Stanford could put its hat in the ring for Pac-12 or national title contention if they upset USC this coming weekend. Meanwhile Michigan State can boost their odds for a BCS bowl in a big way by beating Notre Dame. The Irish are tagged as winners of that game currently, so a Spartan victory would make an Irish BCS bowl outcome very difficult.

Boise State fans should watch the Thursday USF/Rutgers game closely. The Big East hasn't had a clear-cut winner in years and we're counting on South Florida to be that team this year. If Rutgers—only #24 in the projection—beats the Bulls, they'll become the Big East favorite but might not end up ahead of an 11-1 Broncos, making things that much easier for Boise State.

And of course there's Alabama vs. Arkansas, which lost a lot of its luster this weekend as Arkansas not only lost but lost key players to injury. It will only affect the projection if Arkansas pulls off what would now be an even more monstrous upset; otherwise things will stay the same and the hobbled Razorbacks will hang on in the projection until they lose another game they were supposed to win.

2012 Projected Final BCS Standings: Week 1 update

Presenting the Week One update of our projection for the final BCS standings of the year; that is, after conference championship games have been played on the final weekend.

We use our pre-season rankings and strictly follow the game-by-game picks to determine the projected record and resulting ranking. We'll update them with the actual results each week and see how things change.

SportsRatings Projected End-of-Season BCS Standings: week one results included

Previous Projection	Projected 12/02/12 Rank	Team	Projected 12/02/12 Record	BCS Bowl
1	1	LSU	13-0	BCS title
3	2	Oklahoma	12-0	BCS title
4	3	Florida St	13-0	Orange
2	4	Southern Cal	13-0	Rose
5	5	Alabama	11-1	Sugar
6	6	Michigan	12-1	Rose
7	7	Wisconsin	12-1	Fiesta
8	8	Oklahoma St	11-1	Fiesta
9	9	South Florida	11-1	Sugar
13	10	Clemson	11-1
16	11	Boise St	11-1	Orange
10	12	Georgia	11-2
12	13	Texas	10-2
11	14	Oregon	11-2
15	15	Arkansas	9-3
17	16	Notre Dame	9-3
(17)	(17)	Ohio State	9-3
14	17	Utah	11-1
19	18	Nebraska	9-3
(25)	(19)	North Carolina	11-1
20	19	Rutgers	10-2
24	20	Michigan St	8-4
--	21	South Carolina	8-4
23	22	Texas A&M	9-3
22	23	Missouri	8-4
--	24	West Virginia	9-3
25	25	Stanford	9-3

Dropped out: #18 Houston, #21 Vanderbilt

As we noted last week, since LSU is favored head-to-head at home against Alabama they are #1 while the Tide, despite their big win last weekend, remain unchanged at #5 with Michigan projected to be right behind them at #6 when the season is over. The big change is at #2 where Oklahoma moves into the BCS Title game replacing USC, who falls to #4. How did such a thing happen when the Sooners struggled and USC coasted?

It's all due to how other teams on their schedule performed. Close games and blowouts from week 1 are soon forgotten by the pollsters, but the computers don't forget who won or lost. California, for instance, put a crimp in USC strength of schedule by losing to Nevada. Syracuse also lost to Northwestern and Colorado fell to Colorado State, a triple whammy against the Trojans. With four projected undefeated teams, every bit counts.

Therefore USC is dropped into the Rose against Michigan, and Oklahoma State replaced Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. The loser in this scenario is Oregon, who drops out of a BCS bowl (they, too, are hurt by Cal and Colorado losing) while Clemson—elevated by South Carolina's win over Vanderbilt more than their expected defeat of Auburn—is in position to selected as an at-large for the Fiesta Bowl. Wisconsin probably gets the nod, though, and after that there might be no room left for at-large teams.

BCS Busters: One Fizzles, Another Hangs On

There were only two non-AQ conference teams (not counting special-case Notre Dame) in last week's projected top 25, and now there is only one.

It may seem strange that Boise State's BCS chances went up after losing to Michigan State, but look at it this way: they were already expected to lose, and lose worse than they did. A 4-point loss at Michigan State isn't going to weigh down an 11-1 team. Also helping the Broncos in a big way were Nevada and Colorado State, who upset Pac-12 teams Cal and Colorado. Right now they actually project in the top 12, which would put them in a BCS bowl. If they don't make the top 12, as long as South Florida—or some Big East team—remains ahead of them, the Broncos won't be going. And in either case they have to win out, and win big, as usual. The better the Spartans do, the better for Boise, and this week Michigan State moves up to #20 mostly due to Northwestern and Indiana scoring minor upsets. Win a few games we picked them to lose and they'll be right in the thick of things.

Houston—last week's #18 team projected at 12-1—crashed and burned in the very first week, losing to Texas State 30-13. That loss was enough to wipe them off the chart, as Texas State was projected to be 4-8 this season.

Vandy out, South Carolina, West Virginia in

The other team to fall out was our Cinderalla choice, Vanderbilt. Losing to South Carolina wasn't a terrible thing but it puts the Commodores off the map realistically. The Gamecocks move in now that their projected record is better than last week's 7-5, but they have a ways to go before they are close to being one of the top two SEC teams. West Virginia took advantage of weakness in the falling teams as well as a poor showing by Stanford and moves in at #24.

Ineligible Teams May Be Asking "What If"

Two prominent ineligible teams had good weekends. Ohio State rolled Miami of Ohio 56-10, which kept them at #17 in our projection. North Carolina destroyed Elon 62-0. Both outcomes were expected but UNC also got help from Miami and Duke who scored upset wins according to our pre-season rankings. OSU and UNC could place first in their division, thereby causing a 2nd place team to compete for the conference championship; in fact, we project the Tar Heels to win the ACC Coastal, and if they were eligible, they would provide a bigger boost to #3 Florida State than beating Virginia Tech does for the Seminoles.

Projected Final BCS Standing for 2012: Pre-season

Here is our pre-season "projection" for the final BCS standings of the year, that is, after conference championship games have been played on the final weekend.

We use our pre-season rankings and strictly follow the game-by-game picks to determine the projected record and resulting ranking. We'll update them with the actual results each week and see how things change.

SportsRatings Projected End-of-Season BCS Standings: week zero

Previous Rank	Projected 12/02/12 Rank	Team	Projected 12/02/12 Record	BCS Bowl
--	1	LSU	13-0	BCS title
--	2	Southern Cal	13-0	BCS title
--	3	Oklahoma	12-0	Fiesta
--	4	Florida St	13-0	Orange
--	5	Alabama	11-1	Sugar
--	6	Michigan	12-1	Rose
--	7	Wisconsin	12-1	Fiesta
--	8	Oklahoma St	11-1	Sugar
--	9	South Florida	11-1	Orange
--	10	Georgia	11-2
--	11	Oregon	11-2	Rose
--	12	Texas	10-2
--	13	Clemson	11-1
--	14	Utah	11-1
--	15	Arkansas	9-3
--	16	Boise St	11-1
--	(17)	Ohio St*	9-3
--	17	Notre Dame	9-3
--	18	Houston	12-1
--	19	Nebraska	9-3
--	20	Rutgers	10-2
--	21	Vanderbilt	10-2
--	22	Missouri	8-4
--	23	Texas A&M	9-3
--	24	Michigan St	8-4
--	(25)	North Carolina*	11-1
--	25	Stanford	9-3

 

Although LSU is #4 in our pre-season picks, they're #1 when we project out the season following the game scores we derive from thse picks. The reason of course is that LSU plays at home against Alabama, finishing undefeated where the Tide have one loss. USC also finishes "undefeated" and in second place, and therefore also goes to the BCS championship game. Since they're #1 to LSU's #4 in our pre-season picks, technically they are favored to win the national championship. But we're only projecting the final BCS rankings, not the final rankings period.

Oklahoma and Florida State don't have a projected loss, either, but their schedules aren't quite as impressive at the top two. Alabama is the first 1-loss team at #5, having "lost" only to LSU and defeating #6 Michigan in week one. Michigan has a chance this weekend to jump in the projection by wiping out that sole loss...how far would they move up if they do it? Maybe we'll see...

Michigan's biggest win is beating Wisconsin for the Big Ten title, and the Badgers are right behind the Wolverines. Unfortunately they won't be able to be "undefeated" in our projection until the last week—unless Michigan falters enough so that they get a different opponent from the Legends division.

So Alabama goes to the Sugar Bowl, and Michigan to the Rose playing Oregon, the next highest-ranked Pac-12 team. Wisconsin is selected for the Fiesta (they have first pick), the Sugar takes Oklahoma State (though they'd want Texas more), and that leaves the Orange with #9 South Florida. The latter isn't a bad matchup—but the teams already play in the regular season. They'll hope for a full stadium in leiu of tv ratings.

#10 Georgia will be ineligible due to being the #3 SEC team. Speaking of ineligible, we place Ohio State and North Carolina where they would be if they were eligible, but we won't put them in the projected conference title matchups. North Carolina would be the ACC Coastal representative against FSU if they were eligible, and without them FSU's schedule is a bit weaker, thus they are 4th place despite 13 wins.

We kep the bowl picks simple, with the first 10 teams eligible. Texas could be chosen in the Sugar under this scenario but we'll go with Oklahoma State since they "win" the head-to-head; though Texas is higher in our pre-season rankings (#6 to #10) the Cowboys face them at home. Both are slated to lose to Oklahoma, and a win in that game would improve their fortunes greatly.

No BCS Busters

It doesn't look like a good year for BCS busters. TCU joined a BCS conference, and Boise State and Houston are not nearly as good as last year.

Still both the Broncos and Cougars project to 11-1. But Boise State's loss is to 8-4 Michigan State, and Houston's is to 7-5 UCLA, so neither will quite get there. More importantly though we have South Florida at 11-1, so at least for now that means a Big East team is ranked above any BCS busters. If USF falters and every Big East team has three losses, which seems par for the course lately, then the door is open again. Houston is probably not good enough to go undefeated even if they beat UCLA, but if Boise can beat MSU on the road that would mean they're better than expected and could run through the rest of their easy schedule.

And if you need proof that we made these picks prior to the actual start of the season on Thursday, look no further than #21 Vanderbilt. They were supposed to beat (upset) South Carolina last night and didn't quite get it done. They'll be falling in next week's projection.

Sunday Dec. 4, 2011 BCS Projections: Alabama or Oklahoma State? Who knows.

It's the end of the regular season for college football, the games have all been played, and it's time for the BCS—tolerate it or hate it—to match up the #1 and #2 teams in the country to play for the national championship.

LSU, the #1 team, will be playing. And no one really has an idea who their opponent will be.

All right, we can easily narrow it down: It's either Alabama or Oklahoma State. But judging by the new USA/Coaches poll, where Oklahoma State is just an inch behind the Tide, it could be either team at #2 when the results are announced.

The computers are easier to predict, if only because there are just six of them. Last week four had Alabama #2. This week it's expected that four will have Oklahoma State #2. We already know Jeff Sagarin's ELO ratings have kept Alabama at #2.

So what it comes down to: if Oklahoma State is #2 in the Harris Interactive poll—or gets within a handful of votes of #2—they will be ahead of Alabama in the final BCS standings. Which will it be? Maybe human nature can give us the answer.

Predicting where the Harris votes will put Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State jumped from #5 to #3 in the USA Today/Coaches poll, with many voters putting them at #2. Those who didn't put them #2 generally put them #3. It's this type of voter who may give Alabama the edge.

Let's look at your average, apathetic voter: In the USA poll, Virginia Tech was #3, and Stanford #4. It's very easy to jump Oklahoma State into the #3 spot in that scenario—you aren't downgrading Stanford at all; they hold at #4. Since Virginia Tech lost, they logically fall a lot, and the Cowboys move into their spot.

In the Harris Poll, however, Stanford was #3. Some voters will move Oklahoma State from #5 to #2 because they want to see them in the national championship game, just like many USA/Coaches voters did. But of those who don't put them #2, many will leave them at #4. The typical, move-teams-up-or-down-a-slot voter won't want to move Stanford down a spot for no reason. Either they put Oklahoma State at #2, or they put them at #4. This might only happen a handful of times, but that's probably all it will take to keep the Cowboys at #3 in the BCS.

Here's how we see things shaping up:

Projected BCS Top 20 for December 4, 2011 (USA poll actual; Computer composite and Harris projected)

lw  BCS   Team        lwComp  Comp   USA  Harris   
1    1    LSU            1      1     1     1   
2    2t   Alabama        2      3     2     2   
3    3t   Oklahoma State 3      2     3     3   
4    4    Stanford       4      4     4     4   
9    5    Oregon        10t     9     5     5   
7    6t   Boise State    9      8     6     6   
8    7t   Arkansas       6t     6     7     7   
11   8    Kansas State   6t     5    10    10   
12   9    South Carolina 12    10     9     9   
15   10   Wisconsin      19    13     8     8   
5    11   Virginia Tech  10t   15    11    11   
16   12   Michigan       15    14    12    12   
17   13   Baylor         13    11    16    16   
20   14   Clemson        21    17    14    13   
10   15   Oklahoma        5     7    19    19   
13   16   Michigan State 16    19    13    14   
18   17t  TCU            18    18    15    15   
14   18t  Georgia        14    12    18    18   
6    19   Houston         8    23    17    17   
19   20   Nebraska       20    20    20    20

• LSU will be at #1 with a 1.000 score again, followed by Alabama and Oklahoma State who are neck-and-neck. We think Alabama holds on by a nose, but we'll look at the BCS Bowls with both possibilities. If Alabama is #3, they fall to the Sugar Bowl, while Oklahoma State jumps from the Fiesta to the BCS championship game.
• Stanford is a solid #4 and therefore has an automatic berth to a BCS bowl via a convoluted rule.
• Oregon could pass one or both of Arkansas and Boise State, while Arkansas also could pass Boise. Spots 5 through 7 are in any order, and the order doesn't matter: Oregon is going to the Rose, Arkansas is not in the BCS mix, and Boise State is alive for an at-large but probably out of luck.
• Kansas State is a solid #8 and could be in play for a couple of BCS bowls.
• South Carolina and Wisconsin should be #9 and #10 in either order. The Gamecocks are shut out of the picture while Wisconsin will face Oregon in the Rose Bowl.
• Virginia Tech will fall to either #11 or #12, with Michigan taking the other spot. This means the Wolverines are clearly in the top 14 needed for an at-large bid, and will be in the Fiesta or Sugar Bowl. Virginia Tech is a longshot to be picked at-large, probably behind even Boise State.
• From #13 to #18, everything is tight. But it's looking bad for TCU to try to get in the top 16. We have them at #17 and that's assuming they are ahead of Georgia, which is not certain. We're now assuming the Horned Frogs won't be in a BCS bowl as an automatic qualifier. Of the rest, Georgia can't be in a BCS bowl even if they're in the top 14; we assume K-State is picked before Baylor or Oklahoma; Michigan State is probably not in the top 14; and Clemson is already in the Orange Bowl.

So here are our bowl lineups:

A) assuming Alabama is #2 in the BCS

BCS Championship Game:	LSU vs. Alabama
Rose Bowl:	Wisconsin vs. Oregon
Fiesta Bowl:	Oklahoma State vs. Stanford
Sugar Bowl:	Michigan vs. Kansas State
Orange Bowl:	Clemson vs. West Virginia

After LSU and Alabama are matched, with Oklahoma State in the Fiesta and Clemson in the Orange, the Sugar will pick Michigan as their replacement for LSU. Then the Fiesta picks and will take Stanford to play the Cowboys. The Sugar has the next pick and they must choose between West Virginia, Boise State, Kansas State, and Virginia Tech. Any of the first three could be in play. If it's Boise or K-State, then West Virginia will play in the Orange. If it's West Virginia against Michigan, K-State will probably play in the Orange, which is an even longer haul for Boise.

Most analysts would guess that Kansas State, a midwestern team closer to New Orleans than Boise State would get the nod. They're also much higher in the standings than West Virginia. Michigan fans should already be filling the stadium, so making a good game for TV might be a bigger concern. There's no real draw to playing West Virginia now that RichRod is gone, so look for K-State or possibly Boise State against the Wolverines, leaving the familiar ACC-Big East matchup in the Orange.

B) assuming Oklahoma State takes the #2 spot

BCS Championship Game:	LSU vs. Oklahoma State
Rose Bowl:	Wisconsin vs. Oregon
Fiesta Bowl:	Michigan vs. Kansas State
Sugar Bowl:	Alabama vs. Stanford
Orange Bowl:	Clemson vs. West Virginia

In this scenario Alabama goes to the Sugar Bowl automatically, and the Fiesta Bowl gets the next two picks: one to replace Oklahoma State, and then they pick first among the three remaining bowls for their second team. This gives them a chance to satisfy everyone by a) picking Michigan, the most desirable team moneywise; and b) taking another Big 12 team to replace Oklahoma State. They'll probably match Michigan with Kansas State, meaning that between the two scenarios the Wildcats are in pretty good shape.

We assume that Baylor won't be picked ahead of Kansas State since they have three losses and will be farther down in the rankings. Since the pick is for the next in line in the Big 12, Kansas State will probably get the nod, no matter how attractive a Denard Robinson vs. Robert Griffin III showdown would be.

That leaves two more automatic picks, Stanford and West Virginia. Alabama vs. Stanford would make a great TV game, and the Tide will already have the seats filled at the Sugar Bowl so no worries there. Once again, the ACC and Big East teams match up in the Orange.

We ended up with the same 10 teams, rearranged, based on either possibility. But as everyone found out yesterday, nothing is written in stone. There are too many places—from the games, to the voters, to the computers, to the bowl committees who ultimately choose—for things to depart from the foreseen path.

After a season-full of BCS standings predictions culminating in a final weekend with too many variables to reasonably keep track of, we will be quite glad, actually, when the standings come out at 8:15 tonight and put an end to all the speculation. The end result of all this, no matter what the outcome, will be a another push in the slow but steady march toward a college football playoff.

BCS Race Update #4: Oklahoma State toasts Oklahoma 44-10--bad news for Alabama, Michigan?

Now things just got interesting. None of the outcomes in our BCS widget accounted for this possibility—Oklahoma State destroying Oklahoma and making a case to be in the BCS title game (we did note in the analysis that the Cowboys' only hope was to win about 50-0...but adding hypothetical point spreads in addition to 4,096 boolean game outcome combinations was too daunting!)

What happens now? Will Oklahoma State pass Alabama? If so, does that affect any of the other selections?

First of all, it's not certain, or close to certain, that Oklahoma State will pass Alabama. But it sure became more likely than it was at 3pm this afternoon.

Just by beating the Sooners, Oklahoma State had a good chance to pass Alabama in the computer composite, or at the minimum, pass the Tide in some of the individual computer rankings, thereby gaining BCS points.

The human polls—the USA Today/coaches poll and the Harris Interactive poll—are what really determine the teams' fate. And Oklahoma State will certainly gain points. How many is hard to determine; currently they are 5th in both polls. Whether they move to 4th, or 3rd, they will get a lot closer to Alabama. Getting to #2 in the polls would mean they finish #2 in the BCS; at #3, they have a slim chance.

Most likely, it seems, they get close but don't quite get there; the voters that have them at #3 might move them ahead of the Tide, but those that have them at #5 or #6 probably won't.

But what if they do? Assuming Oklahoma State takes the other spot in the BCS title game, the following changes occur:

• Alabama drops to #3. The Sugar Bowl, replacing LSU, will pick the Tide as their #1 team.
• The Fiesta Bowl loses Oklahoma State and needs a replacement team; then they pick immediately again for their #2 team. This is where it gets crazy. The Big 12 winner goes to the Fiesta Bowl but that's not a requirement when a replacement team is needed. The Fiesta will be choosing from Stanford, TCU, West Virginia, and all the other at-large teams, which include Kansas State and probably Michigan. They'd love to have Kansas State and Michigan but they can't get both unless somehow TCU doesn't make the top 16. How committed to the Big 12 is the Fiesta Bowl? Enough to choose them over Michigan? For their 2nd pick, they'll probably take Stanford. So it would be Michigan-Stanford or Kansas State-Stanford in the Fiesta.
• The Sugar Bowl will have next pick and between TCU and West Virginia. We think they'll take the border-state team, though it's possible it could be the Mountaineers against Alabama.
• Michigan State's narrow loss opens the possibility that the Spartans remain ahead of Michigan and TCU; while Oklahoma's huge loss means the Sooners might drop below one or both teams. This seems bad for Michigan but is probably a bigger concern for TCU; one of the two seems very likely to fall below Michigan, but it's possible both remain ahead of the Horned Frogs. If that happens then the Fiesta could match Kansas State and Michigan, leaving Stanford for the Orange after the Sugar takes West Virginia.

What is certain: With Clemson beating Virginia Tech again, the Tigers are in the Orange Bowl; Wisconsin edged Michigan State so they are Rose Bowl-bound against Oregon.

BCS Race Update #3: LSU beats Georgia 42-10; are Michigan, TCU locks?

#1 LSU got off to a rough start but some key punt returns by Tyrann Mathieu—one for a touchdown—keyed a huge comeback and the Tigers beat Georgia 42-10. LSU finishes the season 13-0 and is certain to be in the national championship game.

Georgia's loss also opens the door for Michigan to be in the top 14 and be selected for a BCS bowl, and TCU to be in the top 16 which would make them an automatic qualifier.

Click here for BCS Results update #2.

With Houston's loss, TCU is the top non-AQ conference winner. They are very likely in the top 16 as they will pass Georgia and probably the Big Ten title game loser. Baylor's win makes TCU's fate a bit uncertain, but the Horned Frogs won't necessarily have to pass the Bears. A Baylor loss would have made it 100%, but the Georgia loss probably suffices.

Michigan's spot in the top 14 might have been okay even without Georgia losing, but now it's very close to a lock. The only possible scenarios where the Wolverines don't make it include: Michigan State loses narrowly enough to Wisconsin that they don't fall below Michigan; and Baylor passing Michigan in the standings. Both are unlikely to occur.

TCU has to worry about the Michigan State scenario as well, and more than Michigan does. But MSU is currently 13th and odds are they would fall to at least 17th, making both Michigan and TCU safe. There is a good chance that the two teams will play each other in the Sugar Bowl.

BCS Race Update #2: Kansas State, TCU win, await other outcomes...

Kansas State did again what they've done all year—win a close game. The Wildcats beat Iowa State 30-23 in a back-and-forth game. The score was tied three times, at 7-7, 20-20, and 23-23 before John Hubert's 26 yard run gave K-State the go-ahead.

Meanwhile TCU took care of business easily, beating UNLV 56-9. The Horned Frogs were 38+ point favorites and did not disappoint.

Click here for BCS Results update #1.

What does it mean for both of these teams in terms of the BCS? For TCU, the situation is pretty clear: they must be in the top 16 and they will have an automatic bid to a BCS bowl. With Houston's loss, TCU is the top non-AQ conference winner. If they make the top 14 they're in, and if they make the top 16—and are higher than the winner of an AQ conference—they're also in. Currently the Horned Frogs are five spots ahead of certain Big East winner West Virginia, so the top 16 is what TCU is shooting for. (West Virginia breaks a 3-way Big East tie by being the top-ranked BCS team of the three).

TCU looks good under current assumptions. They'll be in the top 16 almost for sure if either Baylor or Georgia loses today, as we assume they will pass the Big Ten championship loser. If both Baylor and Georgia win, TCU has a problem. The way Houston lost—49-28 to Southern Miss—the Cougars could fall below the Horned Frogs, but it's very far from certain.

Kansas State has one of the toughest roads for an at-large bid. So far things are going right, however, with Houston's loss and their own win. If Georgia manages to beat LSU, and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then that is probably the Wildcats' best scenario and in that case we have them in the Sugar Bowl. This assumes that TCU is held out because of Georgia winning and Baylor winning. It also assumes that Houston doesn't fall below TCU, which would give TCU the spot. In fact, it assumes that Houston doesn't even fall below Michigan, which is about a 50/50 proposition now. So even though things are going right for Kansas State's long shot, everything is going to have to fall into place with games, voters, and BCS bowl officials to score one of the prime slots.

Both teams did what they had to do—win—but one or both of them will be held out of a BCS bowl. There is no scenario in which both teams make it.

BCS Race Update: Houston loses 49-28, falls out of BCS; Oregon, West Virginia in

The Houston Cougars were upset victims to a Southern Mississippi team that ran over their defense, taking a 21 point lead and not letting Case Keenum play catchup. Several Houston drives stalled on 4th down in the 4th quarter, and Southern Miss returned a Keenum interception for another touchdown with minutes left to seal the Cougars' fate.

The loss means Houston is not the C-USA champ, making them ineligible for the automatic non-AQ BCS bid. The Cougars will almost certainly be out of contention for an at-large bid, either by falling out of the top 14 or, if they remain, not being selected by the Sugar, Fiesta, or Orange Bowl.

It also means that TCU has a good chance of replacing Houston as the top non-AQ qualifier. The Horned Frogs, currently #18 in the BCS standings, need to reach the top 16 (assuming they remain ahead of Big East champ West Virginia—who was 23rd going in). TCU is playing UNLV this afternoon. Houston may or may not drop below TCU—we assume they won't, though the big loss margin may drop the Cougars a lot in the polls—but the Big Ten championship loser probably will, as would Georgia if they fall to LSU. #17 Baylor could also lose to Texas to assist the Horned Frogs.

In other early action, Cincinnati held on to beat Connecticut 35-27, meaning that Cincinnati, West Virginia, and Louisville all finish 5-2 in the Big East, and the Mountaineers will almost certainly win the 3-way tiebreaker as the highest-ranked team in the BCS.

On Friday, Oregon beat UCLA 49-31 to earn the Pac-12's Rose Bowl berth. They will face the winner of the Big Ten Championship game between Wisconsin and Michigan State.

2011-2012 BCS Bowl Projection Widget: Test every outcome and scenario

NOTE: THIS IS LAST YEAR'S WIDGET. FOR THIS YEAR'S WIDGET CLICK HERE.

So who is going to be in which BCS bowl game? This year it's a lot more complicated than last year, due to the large number of games this weekend that could tweak the results, as well as a few teams (Michigan and TCU) that are on the borderline of making it into the lineup or being excluded altogether.

There are about 12 games that could reasonably affect the BCS Bowl lineup. Rather than make 4,096 lists of the projected final standings, I made a simple tool to show what I think will happen under all outcomes of those 12 games. Just click on the team on the left hand side that you think might win this weekend and the results are generated automatically.

Welcome to the 2011-2012 version of the BCS Bowl Predictor! Scroll down past the widget for analysis and updates.

The default game picks below now reflect the actual game outcomes; all the favorites won except Virginia Tech and Houston. While the winners and losers didn't stray far from expectations, some of the more outlandish possible scenarios relating to margin of victory occurred, with Oklahoma State putting the national championship game in doubt. See THIS POST for our final projections, given the USA rankings that came out on December 4th.

As you can see there are a lot of minor changes in game outcome that can have a big effect on the results. The text in the box below the lineup attempts to explain the outcome, but with the large number of variations sometimes the explanation might be lacking. And of course, the Bowls might end up choosing a different team in the cases where they have an option.

Here's a rundown of each team's chances in a nutshell (listed by current BCS standings):

1. LSU: Almost guaranteed a spot in the BCS championship game. There is a miniscule chance that, if they lose 50-0 to Georgia, they could fall enough in the polls to sit at #3. It's not even worth exploring where they would end up. 99% of the time they play for the title. Update: LSU beats Georgia, 42-10, and locks up a spot in the national title game.
2. Alabama: Very close to a lock for the BCS championship game; again we don't even explore the alternatives. Oklahoma State would have to beat Oklahoma 50-0 and have enough voters put the Cowboys ahead of the Tide; Georgia beating LSU might put the Cowboys on top of some computers, too. But there's probably a 90% chance for Alabama to play for the title; the other 10%, they're in the Sugar Bowl, unless—the nightmare scenario—Georgia beats LSU, and Alabama isn't in a BCS bowl at all as the Bulldogs push them out of the Sugar. Under all normal circumstances Alabama makes the championship game, unless there is an unforeseen shift in sentiment among the USA and Harris voters that a rematch isn't deserved. Update: With Oklahoma State cleaning Oklahoma's clock—nearly the 50-0 scenario we jokingly proposed—Alabama's spot in the national title game could be in jeopardy. With LSU beating Georgia, the Tide will at least go to the Sugar Bowl.
3. Oklahoma State: Disregarding their minor hope for getting in the BCS championship game, the Cowboys are headed for the Fiesta bowl if they beat Oklahoma. If they lose, however, things get tough. Then, they have to hope neither Houston nor TCU is eligible so that there's an at-large spot open for them. And Boise State might even have to lose to New Mexico, which is not likely. Update: Oklahoma State's performance against Oklahoma increases their odds of reaching the BCS title game from almost zero to at least somewhat possible.
4. Stanford: The Cardinal are sitting pretty at #4, which is a lock under BCS rules for a BCS bowl. That rule is pretty convoluted, but Stanford is in, somewhere, if they're #4. Problem is, there's a slim chance they don't stay there. Virginia Tech could blow out Clemson (we've been using 50-0, we'll stick to it), and voters could say Hey! Virginia Tech is 12-1 and avenged their only loss! and move them up, perhaps enough to make them #4 and put Stanford #5. Possible, but doubtful. Even at #5 the Cardinal are a strong pick, but not a guarantee in all circumstances. We're assuming that Virginia Tech does NOT pass Stanford. This puts the Cardinal in the Fiesta Bowl under most scenarios, with a slim chance for the Sugar or Orange if weird things happen. Update: Stanford doesn't have to worry about Virginia Tech any more. They should be in the Fiesta, unless Oklahoma State makes the championship game, which could shift the Cardinal most likely to the Orange.
5. Virginia Tech: If they beat Clemson, Orange Bowl. That part's easy. If they lose? Again, like Oklahoma State, things get ugly fast for the Hokies. They, too, would benefit if neither Houston nor TCU made the cut as automatic picks, and would probably need Kansas State to lose, too. Then they might be in the Sugar Bowl. Update: Bzzzzt. The Hokies' 38-10 loss puts them out of the Orange Bowl and circumstances don't allow them to be a serious at-large consideration. UPDATE: To quote Popeye WELL BLOW ME DOWN. Apparently the Sugar Bowl committee had much serious consideration for the Hokies. We didn't match Michigan up with them without TCU and Kansas State losing; since TCU didn't get in to the top 16 that wasn't an impediment. But after the 38-10 blowout we didn't think there was a chance in hell.
   
6. Houston: The Cougars just need to beat Southern Miss and they're BCS bowl bound, most likely the Sugar Bowl. Some have suggested the Fiesta—against Oklahoma State—but we don't see it. The bowls can pick who they like, so it could be...but we have them in the Sugar in every scenario where they make it, against either Michigan or Georgia. If they lose they'll drop like a rock in the computer ratings and have essentially zero chance for an at-large bid. Update: The last sentence sums it up for the Cougars, who lost 49-28 to Southern Miss. This helps TCU a lot, and probably Michigan too as Houston could drop below the Wolverines. But it could be tight.
7. Boise State: It's hard to rate Boise's chances for an at-large bid. On the plus side, they're almost a certain winner against 1-10 New Mexico (they are nearly a 50 point favorite). On the down side, a lot of other teams have to lose to make the Broncos look attractive to a BCS bowl. Their best bet might be against Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, setting up a rematch of the 2006 classic. But for that to happen Houston and TCU (a near-40 point favorite) would probably have to lose. Alternately, if Oklahoma State wins, Boise could end up in the Orange Bowl if Houston, TCU, and Kansas State all lose. Update: The Broncos are demolishing New Mexico as expected, but TCU's win pretty much demolishes any chance Boise had of sneaking into a BCS bowl.
8. Arkansas: No chance at all, sorry Razorbacks. There are already two—and maybe three!—teams in the BCS from your conference.
9. Oregon: The Ducks pretty much have a do-or-die against UCLA—Rose Bowl or bust. For one thing because a loss to UCLA would look bad and drop them out of realistic at-large contention. Update: Ducks have won and are in the Rose Bowl. Pretty straightforward.
10. Oklahoma: It's not quite Fiesta Bowl or Bust for the Sooners, but it's close. A third loss would drop the Sooners, but their computer ranking would still be high and a close game against the Cowboys wouldn't irrepairably harm them in the polls. They would need a lot of other teams to lose—probably Houston and TCU to keep a spot open, and maybe even Kansas State and Boise State to clear out the other eligible, high-ranked teams. Then the Sooners might face Michigan in the Sugar Bowl. Update: Whoops. Not only do the Sooners not go to the Fiesta Bowl, but losing 44-10 might take them out of at-large range. Not that they'd likely get picked after laying that egg.
11. Kansas State: Must beat Iowa State, of course, and then hope a few other things happen: Houston losing and TCU staying out of the top 16, and Oklahoma State beating Oklahoma. Then the Wildcats could be Sugar Bowl bound. Update: Kansas State beat Iowa State, and with Houston's loss things were going right for the Wildcats. But TCU won, leaving a Georgia win over LSU K-State's only hope. With LSU's win, K-State has almost no hope since TCU is probably taking up the spot they'd need. UPDATE: Oklahoma State's performance against Oklahoma gives Kansas State new life; they need the Cowboys in the BCS title game and for the Fiesta Bowl to pick the Wildcats as the replacement. Neither is even close to a certainty, but things look better for K-State than they did late this afternoon.
    
12. South Carolina: See Arkansas.
13. Michigan State: Another do-or-die, Rose Bowl or bust. Update: The Spartans busted. Not literally, as they almost beat the Badgers, but their loss removes them from BCS consideration. They might not fall very much, though, and this is the result that concerned Michigan fans the most—the Spartans denying Michigan a spot in the top 14.
14. Georgia: Beat LSU and go to the Sugar Bowl; lose and go to a regular bowl. Update: Georgia gave a good effort early but there is no BCS bowl in their near future. The SEC will have to settle for two teams rather than three.
15. Wisconsin: As with Michigan State, the winner is in the Rose Bowl, the loser is out of the BCS speculation. All four teams vying for the Rose Bowl are in the same boat. Update: The Badgers are in the Rose Bowl.
16. Michigan: The most interesting case of the year. A lock to be chosen if eligible, the Wolverines need to finish in the top 14. That means they need to move up two spots. The easiest way? #14 Georgia loses to LSU, and either #13 MSU or #15 Wisconsin loses and drops below UM. How could it go wrong? Maybe the Spartans lose but the pollsters keep them above Michigan, whom they beat? Probably the Wolverines move ahead enough in the computers to still gain the spot. Baylor beats Texas and jumps Michigan? Again, possible but not probable. We assume that Michigan makes the top 14 unless Georgia beats LSU, and even then they could if Houston loses, but we don't count on it for the calculations. If LSU beats Georgia, Michigan is the Sugar Bowl's first pick; if Georgia wins and Houston loses, Michigan could be the Fiesta Bowl's #2 pick if Houston drops far enough. There hasn't been a team in quite a while that is so certain to be chosen if they can just crack the top 14. Update: Houston's solid loss likely brightened the picture for Michigan; the Cougars actually lost by enough that they could fall below the Wolverines which would put them in the top 14. But it's LSU beating Georgia, that helps Michigan the most. Things are looking very good for the Wolverines. UPDATE: Oklahoma State's huge win over Oklahoma could spell trouble for Michigan, if OK State manages to get in the BCS title game. Or it might put the Wolverines in the Fiesta Bowl instead of the Sugar. The latter would depend on how committed to the Big 12 the Fiesta Bowl is. YET ANOTHER UPDATE: How things have changed. Now the slim worry of Michigan State losing a tight game with Wisconsin has also come true. So Michigan is hanging by a thread if Oklahoma State gets in the BCS title game or not. Wolverine fans have to hope MSU falls below Michigan and Baylor stays behind them. It's gonna be close—it might even be Oklahoma falling farther than expected that saves the Wolverines.
    
17. Baylor: The Bears can't make a BCS bowl, but they can act as spoiler to TCU, and maybe even Michigan, by beating Texas. Update: Baylor took care of Texas 48-24, which should keep them easily ahead of TCU. Will they pass Michigan? Probably not, but it's not impossible.
18. TCU: If TCU beats UNLV and Houston loses, the Horned Frogs only need to make the top 16 to be an automatic bid. Currently at #18, they can't depend on passing the Cougars nor on gaining any ground for their win over the Rebels, so they need a couple of teams above them to lose. Those teams could be: Wisconsin/Michigan State, Georgia, or Baylor. If Georgia and Baylor win, TCU is out of luck—even a Kansas State loss probably doesn't help. Then they'd be dependant on a longshot Boise State loss, as the Broncos would tumble and logically fall below the Horned Frogs, who beat them earlier. Suffice it to say TCU should be rooting primarily for LSU to beat Georgia, and Houston to lose. Update: The key outcome—a Houston loss—has occurred for the Horned Frogs, who went on to dominate UNLV. Baylor won but Georgia lost to LSU, which is very good news for the Horned Frogs. But Michigan State's narrow loss holds out the possibility that TCU finishes #17 and out of luck, while it's possible even that Oklahoma drops far enough to put them back in. Dec. 4 Update: At the 11th hour it looks bad for TCU; neither Oklahoma nor Michigan State probably falls below TCU, Clemson very likely passed them, and even Georgia might not fall enough. The Horned Frogs will be somewhere between 16th and 18th, most likely missing by one spot and finishing #17.
    

For completeness' sake, here are the Big East outcomes, based on their games this weekend:

• WVA and Cincy win: Three-way tie, West Virgina wins Big East tiebreaker
  
• Cincy loses: Louisville wins outright, or wins tiebreaker over WVA
• WVA loses and Cincy wins: Cincinnati wins tiebreaker over Louisville.

Update: West Virginia is the Big East winner (assuming they maintain their lead in the BCS rankings, which is almost a certainty) and probably goes to the Orange Bowl, though in a few scenarios we have them in the Sugar instead.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - week 12: LSU vs. Alabama rematch in the cards

Here we project the final 2011 BCS Standings after predicting the results of the remaining games and the effect of those results on the polls and the BCS computers. This week's current BCS ranking is in the column at the far left; our projection is for where the teams will stand on Sunday, December 4th.

If things play out the way we expect—and almost any other way, too—then LSU and Alabama will face each other in a rematch for the BCS championship in January. The Tigers will have a perfect BCS score if they win out, and Alabama won't be far behind, and they'll be comfortably ahead of the probable #3 Virginia Tech. The Hokies in turn will have a decent lead over #4 Stanford.

The positions from #5 to #7 are virtually deadlocked and could be in any order, but if Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State on December 3, look for them to have a tiny edge for #5, ahead of Boise State and Oregon, who won't gain much of anything for their Pac-12 title game win. Arkansas will be just behind Oregon, maybe a little bit more or less depending on how close they play LSU. Oklahoma State should be a very close #9, too, making positions 5 through 9 very tight.

Look for a continued great computer score to put Kansas State in the top 10, well ahead of Wisconsin who will still have a relatively poor one. The Badgers should win the Big Ten and just edge South Carolina for #11. Houston, assuming they are upset by either Tulsa or Southern Miss, will be #13, ahead of Michigan State who should lose the rematch with Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game. TCU should round out the top 15 under our set of assumptions.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - thru week 12 results

11/20 BCS	12/04 BCS	Team	Proj W	Proj L	BCS Bowl	Computer Composite	USA/ Coaches	Harris Interactive
1	1	LSU	13	0	BCS Title	1	1	1
2	2	Alabama	11	1	BCS Title	4	2	2
5	3	Virginia Tech	12	1	Orange	6	3	3
6	4	Stanford	11	1	Fiesta	9	4	4
9	5	Oklahoma	10	2	Fiesta	2	9	8
7	6	Boise St	11	1	Orange	8	6	6
10	7	Oregon	11	2	Rose	10	5	5
3	8	Arkansas	10	2		7	7	7
4	9	Oklahoma St	10	2	Sugar	3	10	10
11	10	Kansas St	10	2		5	12	12
16	11	Wisconsin	11	2	Rose	16	8	9
12	12	South Carolina	10	2		11	11	11
8	13	Houston	11	1		12	13	13
14	14	Michigan St	10	3		14	14	14
20	15	TCU	10	2		15	15	15

This projection yields the following likely BCS Bowl pairups (changes from last projection in bold):

BCS Championship Game:	LSU vs. Alabama
Rose Bowl:	Wisconsin vs. Oregon
Fiesta Bowl:	Oklahoma vs. Stanford
Sugar Bowl:	Oklahoma State vs. West Virginia
Orange Bowl:	Virginia Tech vs. Boise State

Last weekend's events have put the BCS on a collision course with a rematch. The only saving grace is, strangely enough, that LSU will have the home field advantage, much as Alabama did for the first game. This way, the Tigers get a deserved edge while at the same time, if Alabama wins they can rightly claim to be the top team.

After Oregon's loss to USC the Ducks will finish below Stanford in the BCS but still go to the Rose Bowl to face Wisconsin; the Cardinal should finish high enough to insure a BCS bowl bid for all practical purposes. The Fiesta Bowl picks first and, having Oklahoma in hand, will go with the Westernmost team—though they could opt for a rematch of the 2006 Oklahoma-Boise State game, which would send Stanford out east to the Orange Bowl again.

The most interesting pick is by the Sugar Bowl. Even before the Fiesta picks its #2 team, the Sugar will have to replace the SEC champs, and they can't pick another SEC team since only two from a conference can participate (there is one exception to this, I believe, which we'll discuss later). Oklahoma State will be the nearest high-ranked team to chose so the Cowboys will be heading to New Orleans. When the 2nd pick rolls around it will be down to Boise (or Stanford) and West Virginia, the expected Big East winner. Without a Southern anchor team the Sugar might be loathe to take Boise, instead opting for another pseudo-Southern team in West Virginia. That leaves Boise State to the Orange Bowl against Virginia Tech.

All of this assumes the games play out exactly as we expect, which is of course a longshot when taken all together. Some of the more likely possible variations include Michigan State winning the Big Ten (they'd go to the Rose Bowl, of course); Oklahoma State beating Oklahoma (replacing them in the Fiesta; they'd still need huge help to make the title game); Clemson defeating Virginia Tech for the ACC crown and Orange Bowl berth; and Houston beating Tulsa and Southern Miss to finish undefeated (they'd likely pass Boise State as the automatic non-AQ team, and most logically end up in the Sugar Bowl).

Some less likely possibilities could alter the BCS championship game. For LSU to be out, they'd probably have to lose twice, to both Arkansas and Georgia. This could happen if the loss to the Razorbacks is close, with the Tigers remaining #1 in the BCS standings and therefore still playing in the SEC title game. If they lose to Arkansas by a lot however, Alabama would be #1 in the BCS and play Georgia, while LSU would probably remain #2 and still play in the BCS title game. If LSU beats Arkansas but loses to Georgia, the Bulldogs would be Sugar-bowl bound as the SEC champ, while conference #2 and #3 LSU and Alabama play for the national title, meaning three SEC teams would be in BCS bowls. How the pollsters would deal with such a thing in practice we don't know, but it could happen.

Of course, Alabama could blow it by losing to Auburn, and coupled with Arkansas wins over LSU and Georgia could put the Razorbacks in an all-SEC BCS title rematch with LSU; that's Arkansas' only real chance to get to the title game. Other BCS-buster results include Oregon State upsetting Oregon and putting Stanford back in the Pac-12 title game; Utah (or whoever wins the Pac-12 South) beating Oregon or Stanford and going to the Rose Bowl; Virginia beating Virginia Tech and Clemson to claim the Orange Bowl berth; and a 7-5 Louisville or Pittsburgh managing to win the Big East.

Projected BCS Standings for Sunday, November 20, 2011: Oklahoma State still alive?

After Friday night's loss to Iowa State, Oklahoma State looked dead in the water as far as the BCS championship goes. But Saturday cleared away several of their rivals, and their high ranking with the computers may keep them within (slim) striking distance of the top two.

Of course, one of the rivals cleared away was Oklahoma, and they'd rather that not have happened, since beating a 1-loss Sooner team was pretty critical to their comeback chances. But for the present, the Baylor upset helped them with the computers, since their own win over Baylor looks that much better. The Cowboys could slide from a tie for #1 in the computer composite to just #2 or #3, and that could help them hold on at #4 behind the all-SEC trio of LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas.

Following at #5 should be Virginia Tech and Stanford in some order, as the two will be quite close. In fact all of the next four pairs are interchangeable (numbers 5 and 6, 7 and 8, 9 and 10, and 11 and 12) but not the top four. We have the Hokies probably holding off the Cardinal, but Houston passing Boise State for #7. This depends on Boise's computer lead, and Boise victim Nevada lost to Houston victim Louisiana Tech which might be enough to do diminish it.

Another interesting race is for #9, where we have Oklahoma falling from 5 to 9 and Oregon falling from 4 to 10. The Ducks should be ahead in both polls but Oklahoma will probably fall far less in the computer composite. That's due to the increased value of Iowa State, an Oklahoma victim. While the Cyclones' win over Oklahoma State was bad for Oklahoma's future, it's good for their present computer ranking. Still, the Ducks could remain ahead of the Sooners; as we noted, the banded positions are close.

This Sunday's projected BCS Standings (USA ranking actual; computer composite and Harris projected). Variance is more likely within groupings, which demarcate teams expected to be close in rating.

lw  proj  Team           W   L   Comp   USA  Harris
1    1    LSU            11  0     1     1     1
3    2    Alabama        10  1     3     2     2
6    3    Arkansas       10  1     4     3     3
2    4    Oklahoma St    10  1     2     6     5
8    5    Virginia Tech  10  1     6     4     6
9    6    Stanford       10  1     8     5     4
11   7    Houston        11  0     9     7     7
10   8    Boise St        9  1    10     8     8
5    9    Oklahoma        8  2     7    11    11
4    10   Oregon          9  2    12     9     9
13   11   Kansas St       9  2     5    15    15
15   12   Michigan St     9  2    15    10    10
12   13   South Carolina  9  2    14    13    13
14   14   Georgia         9  2    17    14    12
7    15   Clemson         9  2    13    17    17

Kansas State moves to #11 in our projection, though Michigan State could take the spot, too. The Wildcats are very high in the computers and the Spartans are not. The Wildcats should hold their lead there but they have less upside.

South Carolina may fall a spot this week; the entire SEC didn't do itself any favors with the computers this week for playing an FCS-heavy schedule, and SC's pointless win over The Citadel allows other teams to push past them. Fellow SEC member Georgia also stalls after beating Kentucky, and Clemson's 2nd loss should drop them to #15. The Tigers might be out of the top 15 all together if Michigan passes them, but Clemson probably retains a small edge.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - week 10: Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma for 2nd place?

Here we project the final 2011 BCS Standings using our "fuzzy logic" win counter, with a power rating designed to work based on partial victories and defeats. We use our pre-season rankings as a starting point and actual results are added each week. This week's current BCS ranking is in the column at the far right; our projection is for where the teams will stand on Sunday, December 4th.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - thru week 10 (11/5/2011)

lw	proj	Team	Proj W	Proj L	BCS Bowl	W	L	BCS rank
3	1	LSU	12.1	0.9	BCS Title	9	0	1
2	2	Oklahoma St	11.2	0.8	BCS Title	9	0	2
1	3	Alabama	10.5	1.5	Sugar	8	1	3
4	4	Oklahoma	10.4	1.6	Fiesta	8	1	6
5	5	Boise St	11.4	0.6	Sugar	8	0	5
6	6	Stanford	12.0	1.0	Rose	9	0	4
8	7	Arkansas	9.8	2.2		8	1	8
9	8	Oregon	10.4	1.7	Fiesta	8	1	7
10	9	Virginia Tech	11.0	2.0	Orange	8	1	10
11	10	Clemson	9.9	3.1		8	1	9
7	11	South Carolina	9.5	2.5		7	2	13
13	12	Wisconsin	10.2	2.8	Rose	7	2	18
12	13	Nebraska	8.9	3.1		7	2	19
18	14	Penn State	8.7	3.3		8	1	12
16	15	Georgia	9.4	3.6		7	2	15
15	16	Auburn	7.7	4.3		6	3	20
19	17	Michigan St	9.3	3.7		7	2	17
14	18	Kansas St	8.2	3.9		7	2	14
23	19	Houston	11.3	1.7		9	0	11
22	20	Texas	7.8	4.2		6	2	16
21	21	Ohio State	8.4	3.6		6	3	--
24	22	Georgia Tech	7.9	4.1		7	2	21
17	23	Texas A&M	7.6	4.4		5	4	--
--	24	Southern Miss	10.6	2.4		8	1	22
--	25	Cincinnati	9.6	2.4	Orange	7	1	23

This projection yields the following likely BCS Bowl pairups (changes from last week in bold):

BCS Championship Game:	LSU vs. Oklahoma State
Rose Bowl:	Wisconsin vs. Stanford
Fiesta Bowl:	Oklahoma vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl:	Alabama vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl:	Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati

A lot happened last weekend! Of course LSU's win puts them in the national championship game, and Alabama is relegated to the Sugar Bowl. Not only that, but Nebraska's loss puts them out of the Rose Bowl and probably the BCS bowl race, even if they finish in the top 14. Now we have them in 2nd in the Legends, which doesn't give them a rematch shot at Wisconsin. The Badgers end up with the highest projected rank so they get the top spot of the Leaders and the Rose Bowl berth. The Big Ten is completely up for grabs; Penn State is 2 games ahead in the Leaders but they have yet to play Wisconsin and could easily lose that and another game. And due to recent events, even if they finish in the lower part of the top 14 they probably won't get picked for a BCS bowl.

Though the Badgers are on the edge as far as finishing #13 in our projection, if they make the top 14 they stand a good chance of being picked. The team travels well, for one thing, and as we've mentioned before there aren't a lot of options for the bowls this year as SEC and Big Twelve teams are going to crowd the top 14, leaving several out of luck due to the 2-team-per-conference limit.

The most interesting question is: who will be #2? Can Alabama recover and get a rematch with LSU? Or will it be Oklahoma State, Stanford, Boise State? Boise is going to have a tough time getting to #2 under almost any circumstances, while Stanford has to beat Oregon and the uncertainty surrounding that has them gaining almost nothing before the final standings. Oklahoma State controls their destiny, most likely. If they lose to Oklahoma, however, the Sooners become a big player, and would end up neck-and-neck with Alabama. So if Stanford falls by the wayside and Oklahoma wins out, it's pretty close between the Tide and the Sooners. Oklahoma will have the advantage with the computers, since they love the Big 12, and while the voters go with Alabama right now, the desire to see something other than a rematch of a 5-field-goal game could prompt voters to move Oklahoma ahead of the Tide. They might not have to pass Alabama in the polls, either, just get close enough so that a big computer advantage pushes them to the top.

But assuming an Oklahoma State win, Oklahoma is in the Fiesta Bowl and where we previously saw Boise State we now see Oregon. It's a tossup between the two as to which the Fiesta Bowl would want, and I don't think they'd care much either way between a 12-0 Boise and 10-2 Oregon. So if the Sugar wants Boise, the Fiesta will go with Oregon. The Sugar would want Boise if a good Big Ten team isn't available, and with Nebraska's loss, Wisconsin perhaps in the Rose if they win out (and not a good choice if they don't), and Penn State tainted by scandal, the Sugar may want an undefeated Boise State against Alabama to try to avenge Georgia's loss. With the Tide there, they've got fans in the seats in New Orleans already. And it would create drama: if Boise can actually win, do they deserve to get votes as national champion?

With so few games left, the "fuzzy logic" method is becoming less logical that just picking the remaining games and projecting based on that. So after next week—when the Oregon/Stanford issue is resolved—we'll be switching to that tactic.