SportsRatings: College Football

When the Playoff expands, 1-loss teams might pray they don't make their conference championship game

When the Playoff expands to 12 teams, the last thing you want to be is an 11-1 team stuck in a conference championship game. At 11-1 in a Power Five conference you're guaranteed a spot in a 12-team Playoff, but at 11-2? It might be close. You'll probably still make it—unless your conference has other 11-1 teams waiting in the wings for a bid, too.

The Michigans, Tennessees, and Mississippis of the world will suddenly be happy at 11-1 and glad that someone on the other side of Ohio State and Alabama has to take the risk.

And with the SEC and Big Ten expanding into super-conferences, there might be several 1-loss teams left out of the conference title games...and they'll say, that's perfectly fine.

Sure, winning the conference title game means you're in (the six top ranked conference winners get bids), so if you have 2 losses you probably need the boost. And if you're undefeated, you probably get in anyway win or lose. But at 11-1, it's best not to risk it if you're ranked high.

Makes me wonder if there's an opt-out?

2022 Pre-season College Football Playoff Projections

Taking the 2022 Pre-season Projections a step further and projecting the conference championship game winners, here's a look at where we think the teams might end up after December 3rd in the College Football Playoff Committee's estimation.

SportsRatings 2022 pre-season College Football Playoff Projections

Rnk  Team                       Rec   Odds%  Losses
  1. Ohio State                 13-0  70.2%
  2. Georgia                    13-0  68.9% 
  3. Oklahoma                   13-0  65.6% 
  4. Utah                       13-0  60.2% 
  5. Alabama                    12-1  24.8%  [email protected]
  6. Notre Dame                 11-1  16.4%  [email protected] St
  7. Clemson                    12-1  13.1%  [email protected] Dame
  8. Michigan                   11-1  11.8%  [email protected] St
  9. North Carolina St          11-1  11.5%  [email protected]
 10. Oklahoma St                11-2   8.0%  [email protected], =Oklahoma
 11. Cincinnati                 13-0   7.7%
 12. Tennessee                  10-2   5.9%  LAlabama, @Georgia
 13. Penn State                 10-2   5.6%  [email protected], Ohio St
 14. UCLA                       10-2   5.3%  L Utah, @Oregon
 15. Brigham Young              11-1   4.2%  L=Notre Dame
 16. Boise St                   12-1   3.9%  L BYU
 17. Texas A&M                   9-3   3.2%  [email protected] St, @Alabama, @Auburn
 18. Miami FL                   10-3   2.9%  [email protected] A&M, @Clemson, =Clemson
 19. Mississippi                 9-3   2.5%  [email protected] A&M, Alabama, @Arkansas
 20. Kentucky                    9-3   2.2%  [email protected] Miss, @Tenn, Georgia
 21. Texas                       9-3   1.9%  [email protected], =Oklahoma, @OK State
 22. Texas-San Antonio          12-1   1.6%  [email protected]
 23. Louisville                  9-3   1.3%  [email protected], NC State, @Kentucky
 24. Michigan St                 9-3   1.0%  L Ohio St, @Michigan, @Penn St
 25. Wisconsin                   9-4   0.5%  [email protected] St, @Mich St, @Iowa, =Ohio St

Even though Georgia is our pre-season #1 team, we think that if everything goes exactly to plan with wins and losses, Ohio State will end up with the top Playoff seed due to their schedule: they'd end up having the only wins over 11-1 Notre Dame and 11-1 Michigan, as well as #13 Penn State, #24 Michigan State, and twice over #25 Wisconsin. Georgia would have a huge win over Alabama in the SEC championship game, but other than that their slate isn't too rough, meeting #12 Tennessee and #20 Kentucky along the way.

Two other Power 5 schools end up 13-0 in our projection, making things easy for the Committee (from the pre-season standpoint of course!): Oklahoma and Utah. The Sooners would have to beat Oklahoma State twice to do that, and they also meet Texas as usual. Utah would really rest their argument with being an undefeated Power Five champ, which would be enough, but if they slip up anywhere there's a lot of doubt as their biggest win is #14 UCLA.

#5 Alabama has the best chance of making it as a 1-loss team if they keep things close vs. Georgia. They look to be #1 in the polls throughout the season and a close loss might give them an opening, but if there are four 13-0 teams their odds aren't favorable. Their resume beats any other 1-loss team though, with wins over #12 Tennessee, #17 Texas A&M, #19 Ole Miss, and a non-conference win over #21 Texas.

Notre Dame's chances pivot on their game at Ohio State; win that and they're undefeated and in the Playoff. But they also have to beat #15 BYU and #7 Clemson. The Tigers look to bounce back and win the ACC; they'll need to beat #9 NC State, #23 Louisville, and probably #18 Miami twice, as well as beat Notre Dame, to be assured of a Playoff spot.

Michigan and NC State are in the same boat: the 2nd best team in their conference, and in the same division as their biggest foe (Ohio State and Clemson respectively). Winning those games is their ticket to the Playoff. Michigan has tough games vs. Penn State and Michigan State but they host both of those; NC State's toughest hurdle other than the Tigers is #23 Louisville.

Oklahoma State loses to Oklahoma twice in this scenario, and obviously the 2nd game is more important. #21 Texas is their biggest hurdle otherwise in sort of an off-year for the Big Twelve.

Following their great Playoff season in 2021, #11 Cincinnati doesn't look like a contender even if they repeat at 13-0. The reasons are two-fold: 1) at #15 in our pre-season rankings, they don't appear to be the top ten team they clearly were last season, let alone top 5; and 2) they will have no marquee win like last year's Notre Dame.

Tennessee ranks #7 in our pre-season list but they face both Georgia and Alabama, and a win over #20 Kentucky would be their best selling point, so they finish at #12 here. #13 Penn State has a similar résumé with losses to Ohio State and Michigan, and a win over #24 Michigan State. UCLA is the opposite case, placing just #44(!) in our pre-season rankings but has a very easy schedule in a Pac-12 off-year. We have them losing to Utah and also to unranked Oregon, finishing 10-2 at #14. 

BYU is another non-Power-Five team that could make some waves; they play a partial Power Five schedule with 4 of 12 games meeting that designation including a game in Las Vegas vs. Notre Dame that might be their only loss. They also play at #16 Boise State which would be their biggest win—unless they top the Irish, in which case they become a Committee Problem. The Broncos wouldn't be a problem even at 13-0 as they'd have no big wins other than BYU. They rank #28 in our pre-season rankings but have an easy schedule conducive to a lower-level Committee placement.

Texas A&M plays at Alabama which looks like a loss—also an opportunity—and we have them falling short at Mississippi State and Auburn, too; showing how tough the SEC is, neither of those teams make the final 25. They look to beat #19 Ole Miss and meet #18 Miami in a non-conference showdown. The Hurricanes are the 4th best team in the ACC but avoid everyone except Clemson, which should get them to the ACC championship game where the Tigers beat them again. Mississippi and Kentucky are two SEC also-rans looking for a big break. The Rebels lose to A&M, Alabama, and at Arkansas, but do beat Kentucky and rival Mississippi State, who actually outranks them in our pre-season rankings, #16 to #19. Kentucky falls to Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Georgia but should beat #23 Louisville.

At #21 we have Texas. It's an annual tradition for Texas to be overrated in the pre-season; will it happen again? We place them 23rd in our pre-season Top 131 but an early game vs. Alabama will probably leave them devastated right away. They also face Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, so their biggest win might be UTSA which finishes at #22 here. The Roadrunners could go 12-1 and end up in the top 25 despite being only our #45 team by strength.

Louisville gives the ACC a 4th team in the top 25, but they probably fall to Clemson, NC State, and Kentucky in a non-conference game. They also rank outside our top 25 in strength, at #30, so we aren't too confident in their ability to pull of upsets. 

Michigan State and Wisconsin round out our list. The Spartans lose at Michigan and Penn State, while the Badgers fall at unranked Iowa. Both lose to Ohio State, and although Michigan State probably beats Wisconsin in Lansing, the Badgers win their division and face Ohio State a 2nd time, hence the 9-4 record.

Four teams in the Top 25 Playoff Projection aren't among the top 25 in our pre-season rankings: #14 UCLA is only #44; #16 Boise State is #28; #22 UTSA is just #45; and #23 Louisville is #30.

The four best teams that miss our Top 25 Playoff Projection are: #16 Mississippi State (projected to go 8-4); #17 Iowa (8-4); #22 Pittsburgh (9-3); and #25 Purdue (9-3). Pittsburgh ranks above both Miami and Louisville but plays both on the road. 

First College Football Playoff Rankings of 2019: What to watch for: OSU vs. LSU, Oklahoma vs. Memphis

Here we go. The first College Football Playoff Committee top 25 is about to come out. Although they don't really mean much right now, if history is any guide, these rankings will cause a shakeup in the AP Top 25 in the week following, as the sportswriters tend to follow the committee's lead.

But what does the committee value? Résumé, or performance?

The answer is, both, of course. When Ohio State beat Wisconsin 59-0 in 2014, the Buckeyes might not have had the résumé of Baylor or TCU. But they beat Wisconsin 59-0. The committee might weigh résumé and performance on a case-by-case basic. Here are two cases where we will get a clue as to what they are thinking.

LSU vs. Ohio State

The #1 spot should come down to LSU vs. Ohio State.

This year's Ohio State team is beating teams to almost the magnitude of that 59-0 over Wisconsin. Almost. They beat Wisconsin 38-7, and Cincinnati 42-0. And don't forget Miami Ohio 76-5, Indiana 51-10 or Northwestern 52-3.

LSU can claim a better résumé: they beat AP #10 Florida and #12 Auburn; they also beat Texas who fell out of the poll this week. They also beat 5-3 Georgia Southern. LSU is #1 in our Success ratings, which measures a team's wins and losses without considering victory margin.

Ohio State's résumé is almost as good, with wins over #16 Wisconsin, #17 Cincinnati, and Indiana who is just behind Texas in the "others receiving votes" department. Other victims include 6-3 Florida Atlantic. Ohio State is #2 in Success.

When it comes to team strength, there's no comparison so far: Ohio State is #1 far and away, as seen in our Strength ratings. LSU is just #5.

That's not to say LSU hasn't had its moments. They beat Georgia Southern 55-3, Utah State 42-6, and Mississippi State 36-13.

The committee has a choice here. In general, victory margin shouldn't matter, and the team with the better résumé should be ranked first. But when two undefeated teams have fairly similar résumés, you can't ignore the eye test. Ohio State is blowing out everyone they face; whether or not they could beat Alabama or Clemson, we don't know, but up to this point they clearly look like the dominant team in college football.

Verdict: It's likely the committee puts Ohio State #1, and LSU #2. If they put LSU #1, then they are making a choice that résumé is strictly more important at this point in the season, and choosing not to look at gaudy blowout scores.

Penn State's résumé ought to put them at #3. Alabama and Clemson haven't beaten any current top 25 teams, so I would expect they will follow at #4 and #5.

Even if LSU has to settle for #2, if the Tigers beat Alabama next week, they might elevate to the top spot anyway, as that would make LSU's résumé far and away the best in the country.

Oklahoma vs. Memphis

This is a comparison that not many people are thinking about, but it gets to the nitty-gritty in a few areas. It's another résumé vs. performance comparison. It's also a Power conference vs. Group of Five comparison, and it will tell us something about the value of a name.

Oklahoma sits at #9 in the AP poll, with Memphis at #19.

Here's Oklahoma's current résumé:

Record: 7-1
Loss: at #20 Kansas State (6-2), 48-41
Wins over AP top 25: none
Wins vs. opp w/winning record: Texas (5-3)

Here's Memphis' current résumé:

Record: 8-1
Loss: at Temple (5-3) 30-28
Wins over AP top 25: #23 SMU, #25 Navy
Wins vs. opp w/winning record: SMU (8-1), Navy (7-1), Tulane (6-3)

So you can see, by résumé the Tigers are clearly the more deserving of a higher rank as a 1-loss team. Oklahoma's loss—to a top 25 team—is perhaps more forgivable, but Memphis' 2-point road loss to a winning team isn't that bad. And the Tigers clearly have better wins, being the only team to beat either SMU or Navy, both of whom are ranked. Tulane isn't bad either. Oklahoma counters with a close win over unranked Texas on a neutral field.

This is reflected in our Success ratings where Memphis is #7, and Oklahoma a dismal #21.

But once again, we have to ask, how will the committee use the "eye-test", or margin of victory? 

Memphis has had some close calls against questionable opponents, like their 15-10 win over 3-6 Ole Miss, or their 42-41 escape vs. 2-7 Tulsa. Meanwhile Oklahoma has been blowing out all the cupcakes on their slate, beating 3-6 Houston 49-31, 4-5 UCLA 48-14, 3-5 Texas Tech 55-16, 3-6 Kansas 45-20, and 3-5 West Virginia 52-14. As a result, Oklahoma easily ranks ahead of Memphis in our Strength ratings, #8 to #27.

How the committee ranks these two teams will say a lot about what they are valuing right now. A good résumé? Memphis should clearly be in front. Dominant performances overall? Oklahoma, clearly. A mix of the two? Then it gets close.

I'm pretty sure most people are assuming Oklahoma will rank well ahead of Memphis, as they do in the AP poll. But the AP poll is riddled with bias from pre-season rankings (Oklahoma #4, Memphis unranked), how big-conferences are preferred over small-conferences, and program name (Oklahoma: 7 national titles, Memphis: none).

Do the committee members share these biases? I'm sure they do. Their job is to minimize these biases, but it's clear that some still do exist.

Verdict: If Memphis is ranked ahead of Oklahoma, then the committee has really looked at résumé, and decided that solid wins are more important than impressive wins over lesser competition. 

If Oklahoma is ranked slightly ahead, then they've looked at résumé and performance and struck a balance.

If Oklahoma is ranked far ahead, like they are in the AP poll, then they are emphasizing performance over résumé, and probably falling victim to one of several biases that would lead people to assume that the Sooners should be way ahead of Memphis.

I think observers will be surprised at how high Memphis is ranked, and how low Oklahoma is ranked, in the first Playoff Committee rankings. I don't think Memphis will be ahead of Oklahoma, but it will be close. 

Final note: another relative ranking to watch is Oklahoma vs. Baylor. The Bears are undefeated and beat Kansas State, the team Oklahoma lost to. That would logically put Baylor in front, though once again, Baylor hasn't always been impressive.

Final Playoff Projection: Alabama, Oregon, FSU, TCU—probably

This weekend was supposed to sort everything out, but so much for that idea. It started out well, certainly. On Thursday Oregon solved one piece of the puzzle by thrashing Arizona 51-13 to avenge their only loss. It gave them hope of earning the top seed in the Playoff and eliminated the Wildcats from consideration.

Then, early on Saturday TCU seemed to punch their ticket by blasting Iowa State 55-3. Ranked #3, and winning convincingly, case closed, right? So it seemed. Alabama's 42-13 dismantling of Missouri made everything seem so easy: when your #1 team wins by 30, #2 wins by 40, and #3 wins by 50, there's normally not much doubt about next week's rankings.

Florida State, of course, had another near loss, beating Georgia Tech 37-35, but the 'Noles are now 13-0 with 12 wins over Power Five conference teams. So based on that there's not much concern about them falling out of the top four.

Baylor topped Kansas State 38-27, a decent but not spectacular enough showing by the #6 team to make any real waves. It was Ohio State that made all of this order unravel, by beating Wisconsin 59-0.

Suddently, ANYTHING seemed to be possible. Ohio State pushing out FSU? Why not, when three other 1-loss teams already passed the Seminoles. Baylor passing TCU? Why not—the Bears beat them head-to-head. The only certainties seemed Alabama and Oregon, and Oregon was making a case to push to #1.

In the end, the main area of contention seems to be TCU vs. Ohio State. Florida State probably (probably!) can't be left out as undefeated defending national champs. And Baylor was four spots behind TCU for a reason—the Committee had decided they preferred the Horned Frogs, and Saturday's action doesn't change that. So that leaves either TCU or Ohio State as the #4 team.

SportsRatings Final College Football Playoff projection (Dec. 7, 2014)

12/2 Rank	12/7 Rank	Team	Playoff Odds %	% Change +/-	12/7 Rec	Projected Record				Odds to win out	CFPc 12/7 Proj
						Straight up		Cumulative
						W	L	W	L
1	1	Alabama	96.9	+6.5	12-1	12	1	12.0	1.0	n/a	1
2	2	Oregon	95.3	+8.5	12-1	12	1	12.0	1.0	n/a	2
4	3	Florida St	73.5	+10.1	13-0	13	0	13.0	0.0	n/a	3
3	4	TCU	61.6	-10.4	11-1	11	1	11.0	1.0	n/a	4
5	5	Ohio State	43.0	+6.6	12-1	12	1	12.0	1.0	n/a	5
6	6	Baylor	18.1	-3.2	11-1	11	1	11.0	1.0	n/a	6
8	7	Michigan St	4.6	-0.9	10-2	10	2	10.0	2.0	n/a	7
9	8	Mississippi St	2.6	-1.3	10-2	10	2	10.0	2.0	n/a	8
7	9	Arizona	1.6	-7.2	10-3	10	3	10.0	3.0	n/a	9
13	10	Mississippi	1.2	+0.4	9-3	9	3	9.0	3.0	n/a	10
10	11	Kansas St	0.8	-2.9	9-3	9	3	9.0	3.0	n/a	11
16	12	Georgia	0.4	+0.2	9-3	9	3	9.0	3.0	n/a	12
11	13	Georgia Tech	0.2	-3.2	10-3	10	3	10.0	3.0	n/a	13
17	14	UCLA	0.1	0.0	9-3	9	3	9.0	3.0	n/a	14
18	15	Arizona St	0.1	+0.1	9-3	9	3	9.0	3.0	n/a	15
12	16	Wisconsin	0.0	-1.9	10-3	10	3	10.0	3.0	n/a	16
19	17	Clemson	0.0	0.0	9-3	9	3	9.0	3.0	n/a	17
20	18	Auburn	0.0	0.0	8-4	8	4	8.0	4.0	n/a	18
14	19	Missouri	0.0	-0.7	10-3	10	3	10.0	3.0	n/a	19
22	20	Louisville	0.0	0.0	9-3	9	3	9.0	3.0	n/a	20
23	21	Boise St	0.0	0.0	11-2	11	2	11.0	1.0	n/a	21
24	22	Utah	0.0	0.0	8-4	8	4	8.0	4.0	n/a	22
25	23	LSU	0.0	0.0	8-4	8	4	8.0	4.0	n/a	23
21	24	Oklahoma	0.0	0.0	8-4	8	4	8.0	4.0	n/a	24
--	25	Southern Cal	0.0	0.0	8-4	8	4	8.0	4.0	n/a	25

Dropped out: Marshall

We think TCU will get the call. Ohio State's margin of victory in the Wisconsin game boosts their chances, but probably not enough to pass the Horned Frogs. Margin of victory is not supposed to be considered heavily by the Committee, and it was just one game out of OSU's full season, a season that includes a home loss to 6-6 Virginia Tech. Finishing strong is good, but it's not everything.

Though TCU stays in the top four, Florida State probably moves up to #3 behind Alabama and Oregon. But pretty much all of the combinations are in play. TCU might hold the #3 spot, or fall to #5. Ohio State could jump to #3, with TCU right behind them, dropping Florida State to #5. That would be a bold move by the Committee, and establish that ease of victory (aka winning margin) matters more than the winning itself; it's hard to argue Ohio State had a tougher schedule than Florida State, and certainly not so much tougher as to excuse an actual loss. But the Committee has no exacting criteria to use; they can do whatever they want, and justify it later by means of any speck of data they so chose. Or just say "eye test"—those are the magic words.

The only two certainties are the Tide and the Ducks in the top two spots. We show Alabama and Oregon as below 100% certainty but that's formula fudge; it's useful as a measure of how close the two are, reflecting the fact that Oregon has a shot at #1 but probably falls short. There are no realistic scenarios where either team drops out of the top four.

And below Baylor, no team really has any measureable chance to make the top four; at this point the percentages given are useful only to put the rest of the top 25 into an order. The Committee has been pretty fickle with its rankings but with most of the teams idle on Saturday, there should be less wholesale change than there has been in the past.

We will know around noon what the Committee ultimately decided. It sure didn't get any easier for them. But if they stick with what they've been doing, they won't change things around too much. Unfortunately for the whole Playoff enterprise, this year didn't work out nicely for a 4-team playoff. Even an expanded 8-team Playoff would have had problems with undeserving teams getting in. If the Playoff expands and takes "conference champs" automatically, there will be a year where an 8-5 conference champ makes the Playoff. Unless they move to a flexible format—anywhere from 2 to 8 teams—there will always be too few, or too many, teams in the Playoff any given year. But such a format is not practical for planning the rest of the bowls.

In other words, the Playoff will never be perfect. But the first pass at it sure has been interesting!

Every Playoff configuration, from 64 possible results for Alabama, Oregon, TCU, FSU, Ohio State & Baylor games

The top six teams in the College Football Playoff Committee's rankings have 1 or fewer losses. If the top four teams win, it's pretty simple to project the top four—it will remain exactly the same. A loss or two in the top four isn't hard to decipher either—the other two teams will fill the vacant slots.

But if three or more of the top six lose? It gets a bit more difficult. And if all hell breaks loose? The Committee will have a very difficult job under certain circumstances. It's hard to tell what will happen under some scenarios, but we're giving it a shot: here, we chart all 64 possible combinations of results of the games involving the top 6 teams and project an ordered Top Four for all 64 cases.

Here are the games:

• #1 Alabama vs. #16 Missouri
• #2 Oregon vs. #7 Arizona
• #3 TCU vs. Iowa State
• #4 Florida State vs. #11 Georgia Tech
• #5 Ohio State vs. #13 Wisconsin
• #6 Baylor vs. #9 Kansas State

Here are our assumptions, any of which might be wrong:

1. The Committee loves Alabama, and doesn't like Missouri. Thus even if Alabama loses they remain ahead of the Tigers and have a chance to remain in the Top Four, while Missouri has no chance. This assumption could be wrong since Missouri will be the SEC champs if they win.
2. The Committee likes Oregon and has excused their first loss to Arizona. So even if they lose a second time, they can still sneak in the Playoff behind the Wildcats. This won't happen if Arizona wins in a blowout, and might not happen anyway if the Committee doesn't want to allow the possibility of a National Champ that has won only 1 of 3 games vs. another team. The two teams definitely won't be matched up in the first round.
3. TCU is in if they win due to being #3, and out if they lose, due to playing Iowa State.
4. Florida State passes TCU with a win, and is out with a loss. They might remain #4 with another close win, and perhaps even with a loss—they would have an argument for remaining in as a 1-loss team under a chaotic scenario.
5. Ohio State and Baylor keep their relative ranking—no team passes them, and they pass every team that loses. Seems reasonable but the Committee often shakes up their rankings.
6. Kansas State and Georgia Tech can get in if they win. Kansas State has priority over the Wreck if TCU also loses, in which case the Wildcats stake a claim to a conference championship. Otherwise Georgia Tech is ahead in line after beating Georgia and FSU. Wisconsin, like Missouri, is ranked too low to make the jump into the Top Four. In actuality, it's hard to say what choices the Committee will make regarding these teams in all the trickier scenarios.
7. Michigan State (#8) can't make it because in all of the more chaotic scenarios either K-State or Georgia Tech passes them, and/or Alabama and Oregon remain in front of them. Neither can #10 Mississippi State, for similar reasons. But you never know.

Here, then, is the master matrix of projections for all 64 possible outcomes:

Alabama	Oregon	TCU	FSU	OSU	Baylor	Arizona	K-State	GATech	Playoff Teams in order:
WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	L	L	Alabama, Oregon, FSU, TCU
WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	L	WIN	L	Alabama, Oregon, FSU, TCU
WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	L	L	L	Alabama, Oregon, FSU, TCU
WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	L	L	WIN	L	Alabama, Oregon, FSU, TCU
WIN	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	L	L	WIN	Alabama, Oregon, TCU, Ohio State
WIN	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	L	L	WIN	WIN	Alabama, Oregon, TCU, Ohio State
WIN	WIN	WIN	L	L	WIN	L	L	WIN	Alabama, Oregon, TCU, Baylor
WIN	WIN	WIN	L	L	L	L	WIN	WIN	Alabama, Oregon, TCU, GA Tech
WIN	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	L	L	Alabama, Oregon, FSU, Ohio State
WIN	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	L	L	WIN	L	Alabama, Oregon, FSU, Ohio State
WIN	WIN	L	WIN	L	WIN	L	L	L	Alabama, Oregon, FSU, Baylor
WIN	WIN	L	WIN	L	L	L	WIN	L	Alabama, Oregon, FSU, K-State
WIN	WIN	L	L	WIN	WIN	L	L	WIN	Alabama, Oregon, Ohio State, Baylor
WIN	WIN	L	L	WIN	L	L	WIN	WIN	Alabama, Oregon, Ohio State, K-State
WIN	WIN	L	L	L	WIN	L	L	WIN	Alabama, Oregon, Baylor, GA Tech
WIN	WIN	L	L	L	L	L	WIN	WIN	Alabama, Oregon, K-State, GA Tech
WIN	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	L	Alabama, FSU, TCU, Ohio State
WIN	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	L	Alabama, FSU, TCU, Ohio State
WIN	L	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	L	L	Alabama, FSU, TCU, Baylor
WIN	L	WIN	WIN	L	L	WIN	WIN	L	Alabama, FSU, TCU, Arizona
WIN	L	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	Alabama, TCU, Ohio State, Baylor
WIN	L	WIN	L	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	Alabama, TCU, Ohio State, Arizona
WIN	L	WIN	L	L	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	Alabama, TCU, Baylor, Arizona
WIN	L	WIN	L	L	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	Alabama, TCU, Arizona, Oregon
WIN	L	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	L	Alabama, FSU, Ohio State, Baylor
WIN	L	L	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	L	Alabama, FSU, Ohio State, Arizona
WIN	L	L	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	L	L	Alabama, FSU, Baylor, Arizona
WIN	L	L	WIN	L	L	WIN	WIN	L	Alabama, FSU, Arizona, Oregon
WIN	L	L	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	Alabama, Ohio State, Baylor, Arizona
WIN	L	L	L	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	Alabama, Ohio State, Arizona, Oregon
WIN	L	L	L	L	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	Alabama, Baylor, Arizona, Oregon
WIN	L	L	L	L	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	Alabama, Arizona, K-State, Oregon
L	WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	L	L	Oregon, FSU, TCU, Ohio State
L	WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	L	WIN	L	Oregon, FSU, TCU, Ohio State
L	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	L	L	L	Oregon, FSU, TCU, Baylor
L	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	L	L	WIN	L	Oregon, FSU, TCU, Alabama
L	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	L	L	WIN	Oregon, TCU, Ohio State, Baylor
L	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	L	L	WIN	WIN	Oregon, TCU, Ohio State, Alabama
L	WIN	WIN	L	L	WIN	L	L	WIN	Oregon, TCU, Baylor, Alabama
L	WIN	WIN	L	L	L	L	WIN	WIN	Oregon, TCU, Alabama, GA Tech
L	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	L	L	Oregon, FSU, Ohio State, Baylor
L	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	L	L	WIN	L	Oregon, FSU, Ohio State, Alabama
L	WIN	L	WIN	L	WIN	L	L	L	Oregon, FSU, Baylor, Alabama
L	WIN	L	WIN	L	L	L	WIN	L	Oregon, FSU, Alabama, K-State
L	WIN	L	L	WIN	WIN	L	L	WIN	Oregon, Ohio State, Baylor, Alabama
L	WIN	L	L	WIN	L	L	WIN	WIN	Oregon, Ohio State, Alabama, K-State
L	WIN	L	L	L	WIN	L	L	WIN	Oregon, Baylor, Alabama, GA Tech
L	WIN	L	L	L	L	L	WIN	WIN	Oregon, Alabama, K-State, GA Tech
L	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	L	FSU, TCU, Ohio State, Baylor
L	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	L	FSU, TCU, Ohio State, Arizona
L	L	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	L	L	FSU, TCU, Baylor, Arizona
L	L	WIN	WIN	L	L	WIN	WIN	L	FSU, TCU, Arizona, Alabama
L	L	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	TCU, Ohio State, Baylor, Arizona
L	L	WIN	L	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	TCU, Ohio State, Arizona, Alabama
L	L	WIN	L	L	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	TCU, Baylor, Arizona, Alabama
L	L	WIN	L	L	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	TCU, Arizona, Alabama, Oregon
L	L	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	L	FSU, Ohio State, Baylor, Arizona
L	L	L	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	L	FSU, Ohio State, Arizona, Alabama
L	L	L	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	L	L	FSU, Baylor, Arizona, Alabama
L	L	L	WIN	L	L	WIN	WIN	L	FSU, Arizona, Alabama, Oregon
L	L	L	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	Ohio State, Baylor, Arizona, Alabama
L	L	L	L	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	Ohio State, Arizona, Alabama, Oregon
L	L	L	L	L	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	Baylor, Arizona, Alabama, Oregon
L	L	L	L	L	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	Arizona, Alabama, Oregon, K-State

As you can see, some of the outcomes seem unlikely even given the proposed scenario, but any Top Four looks bizarre under some of the crazier scenarios. About half of the scenarios are straightforward and obvious, while the other half are a bit fuzzy, and about a quarter of them should ideally have several alternative rankings listed, but we've chosen to follow the rules above. Come Sunday when the smoke has cleared, we'll assign odds to the possible foursomes the Committee might select.

Playoff Odds, Week 14b: Committee puts TCU #3, FSU #4 —what does it mean?

We're revisiting our College Football Playoff odds chart mid-week to take into account the Playoff Committee's rankings from Tuesday evening. We projected their rankings and of course got a few things wrong, including where they'd put Florida State and TCU. We actually figured it would be a close race for #3 but didn't believe the Committee would move TCU up to #3. Now that they have, it says a lot.

For one, Baylor is not going to pass TCU unless the Horned Frogs lose. At three positions apart, a win over Kansas State—no matter how dominant—is not going to move the Bears up enough to dislodge TCU. The Big Twelve gave the Committee a way out of its promise to give mucho credit to conference champs—by declaring that the Committee could decide who the conference champ is. They've decided it's TCU.

The move also says that there are not going to be two teams from the same conference in the top four. TCU and Baylor were the only real chance left for it to happen, and by keeping Ohio State ahead of Baylor, and Arizona just one spot back, it means that if FSU and Oregon both lose, Ohio State and Arizona could be the replacements.

It also sends a message to Florida State: lose and you're out. From the #3 position this isn't so certain, but from #4 it doesn't look like FSU can afford a loss. Sure, they'll be 12-1 like everyone else, and Ohio State and Baylor have losses to worse teams than Georgia Tech, but there won't be much questioning of the #4 team falling to #5 after a loss.

Did the Committee do this in case Jameis Winston's hearing goes badly and he's suspended by the school? It's possible. More likely, they are just trying to honor their "strength of schedule" pledge, wherein winning games isn't as important. Also, by noting FSU's weak win margins, they're showing that they're trying to pick the "best" teams, not the "most deserving," the former being another part of their charter...I think. It's hard to keep track of what their actual charter was and what was just thrown around in discussion. But here's one for conspiracy theorists: the Committee could have placed FSU at #4 to prepare them to be excluded if Winston plays vs. Georgia Tech but is suspended later.

The teams at #5 and #6 have quarterback issues, too, but both moved up a spot. Ohio State won't have JT Barrett; the Committee has already decided that losing to Virginia Tech isn't so bad, and some have said they shouldn't be punished for that loss since Barrett was so green. By that logic, if they lose to Wisconsin they should make the Playoff anyway, since they were without their starter. Baylor might not have Bryce Petty either.

In any case, this puts TCU ahead of Florida State in our projections, which now pretty closely align with the Committee's rankings. Our formula doesn't get inside the Committee's heads so the percentages are based on how likely they are to win and how likely it appears they will get into the top four. Already being there is the most important consideration.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff odds chart for December 2, 2014 (post-Committee rankings)

11/30 Rank	12/2 Rank	Team	Playoff Odds %	% Change +/-	12/2 Rec	Projected Record				Odds to win out	CFPc 12/2 Rank
						Straight up		Cumulative
						W	L	W	L
1	1	Alabama	90.4	0.0	11-1	12	1	11.8	1.2	80%	1
2	2	Oregon	86.8	0.0	11-1	12	1	11.8	1.2	76%	2
4	3	TCU	72.1	+8.0	10-1	11	1	11.0	1.0	99%	3
3	4	Florida St	63.4	-8.0	12-0	12	1	12.5	0.5	47%	4
5	5	Ohio State	36.4	0.0	11-1	12	1	11.5	1.5	52%	5
6	6	Baylor	21.3	0.0	10-1	11	1	10.7	1.3	69%	6
7	7	Arizona	8.8	0.0	10-2	10	3	10.2	2.8	24%	7
9	8	Michigan St	5.5	+0.8	10-2	10	2	10.0	2.0	n/a	8
8	9	Mississippi St	3.9	-1.6	10-2	10	2	10.0	2.0	n/a	10
11	10	Kansas St	3.7	+0.8	9-2	9	3	9.3	2.7	31%	9
12	11	Georgia Tech	3.3	+0.8	10-2	11	2	10.5	2.5	53%	11
10	12	Wisconsin	1.9	-1.3	10-2	10	3	10.5	2.5	48%	13
15	13	Mississippi	0.8	+0.6	9-3	9	3	9.0	3.0	n/a	12
13	14	Missouri	0.7	-0.3	10-2	10	3	10.2	2.8	20%	16
14	15	Marshall	0.5	0.0	11-1	12	1	11.7	1.3	66%	--
17	16	Georgia	0.2	+0.2	9-3	9	3	9.0	3.0	n/a	14
16	17	UCLA	0.2	0.0	9-3	9	3	9.0	3.0	n/a	15
18	18	Arizona St	0.0	0.0	9-3	9	3	9.0	3.0	n/a	17
19	19	Clemson	0.0	0.0	9-3	9	3	9.0	3.0	n/a	18
22	20	Auburn	0.0	0.0	8-4	8	4	8.0	4.0	n/a	19
20	21	Oklahoma	0.0	0.0	8-3	9	3	8.9	3.1	94%	20
21	22	Louisville	0.0	0.0	9-3	9	3	9.0	3.0	n/a	21
23	23	Boise St	0.0	0.0	10-2	11	2	10.9	1.1	92%	22
24	24	Utah	0.0	0.0	8-4	8	4	8.0	4.0	n/a	23
--	25	LSU	0.0	0.0	8-4	8	4	8.0	4.0	n/a	24

Dropped out: #25 Minnesota

TCU gets a boost and Florida State falls by the same amount. Since FSU would have just one loss if they fall to Georgia Tech we give them decent odds to stay in the top four, but realistically they'd need at least Ohio State and Baylor to lose. And would they have to worry about 2-loss teams? Who knows. The Committee clearly doesn't like them, and likes TCU, so the Horned Frogs just have to beat Iowa State and they're in. Our 72% projection doesn't capture the fact that TCU is probably the biggest "lock" on the chart, even though they're most likely to end up #3.

With Michigan State ranking ahead of Mississippi State, the Committee is looking more at losses than wins. The Spartans have losses to two probably Playoff teams, Oregon and TCU. Both teams have finished play so they can't move up very much. And Michigan State probably can't finish ahead of Ohio State. So what this does is kill any hope of Mississippi State being the consecrated 2-loss team that slips in if there's total mayhem. If they'd fallen only #7, that would be more realistic.

Kansas State and Georgia Tech both ranked a spot higher than we'd figured, so they both move up a notch in our projection and that gives them hope that an upset win on Saturday might put them in the Playoff. It's a longshot for both, however. They'd probably get close, but no cigar.

Wisconsin and Missouri really had their bubbles burst. The Badgers only climbed to #13, which is not really within striking distance. Missouri figured that surely beating Alabama and winning the SEC would make them a contender, but if the Committee only ranks their current resume at #16 it appears more likely that Alabama would remain in the top four than Missouri join it, even if both are 11-2. In fact, 3-loss Mississippi remained ahead of the Tigers, which shows what the Committee thinks of the SEC West vs. the SEC East. But even Georgia, which was 2nd in the East and lost to Georgia Tech, is 2 spots ahead of Missouri in the Committee's latest judgement. Guess that loss to Indiana actually carries weight, unlike getting shut out 30-0 by 6-6 Arkansas, or blasted 38-20 by 6-5 Florida.

Playoff Odds, week 14: One weekend left, 3 teams are locks if they win

Not many upsets happened over the long weekend, and the one that did was pretty much predicted by our Strength power rating. That means that the top four teams remain unchanged from last weekend, but the order switches a bit.

Alabama takes over the #1 spot for two reasons: one, they beat Auburn, and two, Missouri made it to the SEC championship. The benefits of the former are obvious, but the latter means that the Tide won't have to face Georgia in Atlanta, which was around a 50/50 proposition. Missouri is an 80% likely win for Alabama, but then again Mizzou has been bucking the odds for several weeks now.

Oregon wiped out Oregon State and improved their odds to 86% even as they drop to #2. Since that's their rank in the Committee's standings, they were destined to drop their regardless if Alabama won out. They'll rematch Arizona next week and could be the only team that has avenged its losses for the year. With Alabama playing an easier foe, there's a small chance Oregon claims the #1 seed with a win, but it's unlikely.

Florida State had its predictable challenge to overcome, and once again they did it, edging Florida 24-19. They'll play Georgia Tech in the ACC title game and our power ratings predict an upset, but it's basically 50/50 and FSU could still squeeze in with a loss if other things go their way. In fact, all of the top three still has a chance if they lose, but those scenarios are complicated and no one knows how the Committee would handle chaos.

TCU remained number 4 as the expected loss by Mississippi State cleared a path for the Horned Frogs with the Committee. They're the only team that isn't secure, however; they play Iowa State, which won't improve their standing, while the teams below them play ranked opponents. But with a (projected) solid #4 ranking and an almost certain victory next week, they move above 50% in Playoff Odds so we finally have a strong prediction for the field of four.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff odds charts for November 30, 2014 (through week 14)

Last week	11/30 Rank	Team	Playoff Odds %	% Change +/-	11/30 Rec	Projected Record				Odds to win out	CFPc 12/2 Proj
						Straight up		Cumulative
						W	L	W	L
3	1	Alabama	90.4	+18.5	11-1	12	1	11.8	1.2	80%	1
1	2	Oregon	86.8	+8.3	11-1	12	1	11.8	1.2	76%	2
2	3	Florida St	71.4	-5.4	12-0	12	1	12.5	0.5	47%	3
4	4	TCU	64.1	+20.2	10-1	11	1	11.0	1.0	99%	4
7	5	Ohio State	36.4	+9.8	11-1	12	1	11.5	1.5	52%	5
6	6	Baylor	21.3	-6.4	10-1	11	1	10.7	1.3	69%	6
14	7	Arizona	8.8	+7.4	10-2	10	3	10.2	2.8	24%	7
5	8	Mississippi St	5.5	-35.0	10-2	10	2	10.0	2.0	n/a	8.5
8	9	Michigan St	4.7	-2.7	10-2	10	2	10.0	2.0	n/a	8.5
12	10	Wisconsin	3.2	+0.2	10-2	10	3	10.5	2.5	48%	11
13	11	Kansas St	2.9	+0.1	9-2	9	3	9.3	2.7	31%	10
18	12	Georgia Tech	2.5	+2.0	10-2	11	2	10.5	2.5	53%	12
17	13	Missouri	1.0	+0.4	10-2	10	3	10.2	2.8	20%	13
10	14	Marshall	0.5	-5.0	11-1	12	1	11.7	1.3	66%	--
22	15	Mississippi	0.2	+0.2	9-3	9	3	9.0	3.0	n/a	14
11	16	UCLA	0.2	-4.4	9-3	9	3	9.0	3.0	n/a	15
9	17	Georgia	0.0	-5.9	9-3	9	3	9.0	3.0	n/a	16
15	18	Arizona St	0.0	-1.1	9-3	9	3	9.0	3.0	n/a	17.5
24	19	Clemson	0.0	0.0	9-3	9	3	9.0	3.0	n/a	17.5
23	20	Oklahoma	0.0	0.0	8-3	9	3	8.9	3.1	94%	19
21	21	Louisville	0.0	0.0	9-3	9	3	9.0	3.0	n/a	20
19	22	Auburn	0.0	-0.2	8-4	8	4	8.0	4.0	n/a	21
--	23	Boise St	0.0	0.0	10-2	11	2	10.9	1.1	92%	22
25	24	Utah	0.0	0.0	8-4	8	4	8.0	4.0	n/a	23.5
20	25	Minnesota	0.0	0.0	8-4	8	4	8.0	4.0	n/a	23.5

Dropped out: Colorado State

Other major contenders: Ohio State and Baylor

Ohio State beat Michigan and as of last week was ahead of Baylor in the Committee standings. Baylor struggled against Texas Tech which doesn't help their cause and makes beating Kansas State look more doubtful. Their games next week—vs. Wisconsin and vs. Kansas State, respectively—are about equal in terms of weight, but Baylor is more likely to win their game. It's clear that Baylor's schedule has been a drag on their ranking, and that winning the Big Twelve by having the best record isn't going to be treated the same as winning a conference championship game. Nor does it appear that Baylor is catching up to TCU, despite beating the Horned Frogs earlier. Their only hope is to edge closer to TCU on Tuesday, and their near-loss to the Red Raiders makes that less likely. So for now, TCU's main competition for the 4th spot is Ohio State, not Baylor. That could change Tuesday as the Committee has been unpredictable before.

Also: What is not reflected here is the probable loss of JT Barrett for next week's game against the Badgers.

Other minor contenders

#7 Arizona is probably the best-positioned 2-loss team, in that if they beat Oregon there will be no argument against putting them above the Ducks—they will have defeated them twice on the year. Getting past the 1-loss teams would be the chore, so they'd need help.

Though Mississippi State and Michigan State rate the next highest percentage chance to sneak in as a 2-loss team, neither will be a conference champ so their odds of moving up are slim. They won't lose, though, and the teams below them probably will, so they are more likely to hold a higher rank. If all hell breaks loose and only Alabama is left standing next week, the Bulldogs' close loss would be their argument, along with SEC West dominance. It probably wouldn't hold water against the other conference champs' arguments. Michigan State, too, could argue it lost only to two Playoff teams—Oregon and Ohio State, potentially—but is that a good argument? That they already lost to Playoff teams?

If Wisconsin beats Ohio State they'll be a conference champ but they lost to Northwestern. They, too, would need a lot of 1-loss teams to lose, and even then it's questionable. They rate fairly high because their odds of upsetting Ohio State are pretty good.

Kansas State could help themselves with an upset of Baylor, but it doesn't look like there's any way for the Wildcats to be an official conference champion. A three-way tie between K-State, TCU, and Baylor would be broken by games vs. West Virginia—eliminating Baylor—and then TCU would win the conference on head-to-head vs. K-State.

Georgia Tech sails up to #12 after upsetting Georgia, but Missouri might have foiled their plans. The Yellow Jackets have better odds of beating FSU than Missouri does of Alabama which is why they're ahead, but winning the SEC would give a bigger boost than winning the ACC. If Missouri had lost to Arkansas, Georgia would have been in the SEC final, and if they'd won, Georgia Tech could claim both an ACC title and a win over the SEC champ.

The 'coulda been' contenders...

Marshall lost a wild game to Western Kentucky, 67-66, which accelerated the already downward plunge of their odds. The Committee wasn't going to care if they were 13-0 and certainly won't care if they are 12-1, but our formula still shows a token amount. Their concern now is a New Year's Day bowl which they could still get if they beat Louisiana Tech and Boise State loses to Fresno State.

Mississippi has some great wins—Alabama, Mississippi State—but their three losses won't let them near the prize. Same for UCLA, who controlled their destiny but couldn't control Stanford, losing 31-10 to finish 9-3.

Georgia was in the best position of any 2-loss team last week but lost in overtime to Georgia Tech. As it turns out that didn't matter, since they weren't going to win the SEC East in any case. But the loss really hurts their bowl standing.

Arizona State would have won the Pac-12 South had they managed to get past Arizona. Instead they fall somewhere into the Pac-12 bowl pecking order.

Playoff Odds, week 13: Oregon, FSU, Alabama control fate; TCU, Miss State on cusp

Three weeks left, and the picture is pretty clear for the top three in the College Football Playoff Committee's top three from last week: Win out and you're in. They all have a rivalry game at home and their conference championship game left. The rest of the field is vying for the 4th spot unless there's an upset somewhere in the top three.

Our projected top three are the top three in the Committee's rankings, but in a different order. Their #2, Oregon, is our #1, meaning they're the most likely to remain in the top four. Whether they get the "top seed" depends on what other teams do. But their path is pretty clear with Oregon State and the Pac-12 title game to go, though both could be difficult given that one is a rivalry game and the South has a number of good teams. We give them about a 2/3 chance of winning out and an almost 80% chance to stay in the top four. Does that mean they can take a loss and still make it? Not likely but stranger things have happened. A loss to Oregon State and a win in the Pac-12 title game makes them a live long shot.

Florida State is a close #2. The Seminoles are still undefeated which is pretty amazing considering how they've gone about it. They have two games left which will each be roughly as tough as any games they've had this year—Florida and Georgia Tech. In the former they host a still-dangerous rival, and in the latter they face a triple option offense that has given them trouble in the past. Like all their games, these are about 50/50 propositions which means they have about a 1 in 4 chance of remaining undefeated...but a 3 in 4 chance of making the playoff. A loss doesn't kill them off, but it puts them among the other 1-loss teams. If none of them lose, then yes, the Seminoles would probably be out given that the Committee wasn't very impressed with them at 10-0.

The Committee's #1, Alabama could have a very tough couple of games left: Auburn at home, and the SEC title game if they beat the Tigers. Our 30% figure assumes they play in the SEC title game; even if they don't, they're going to be first in line among 2-loss teams, and possibly ahead of some 1-loss teams.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff odds chart, post-week 13 (Nov. 23, 2014)

Last week	11/23 Rank	Team	Playoff Odds %	% Change +/-	11/23 Rec	Projected Record				Odds to win out	CFPc 11/25 Proj
						Straight up		Cumulative
						W	L	W	L
2	1	Oregon	78.5	+1.7	10-1	12	1	11.6	1.4	65.8%	2
1	2	Florida St	76.7	-10.0	11-0	12	1	12.0	1.0	26.5%	3
3	3	Alabama	71.9	+16.9	10-1	11	1	10.7	1.3	29.7%	1
4	4	TCU	43.9	-2.2	9-1	11	1	10.8	1.2	80.2%	5
5	5	Mississippi St	40.5	+5.3	10-1	10	2	10.4	1.6	13.9%	4
6	6	Baylor	27.7	-6.9	9-1	11	1	10.7	1.3	74.5%	7
7	7	Ohio State	26.6	+3.8	10-1	12	1	10.9	2.1	48.4%	6
10	8	Michigan St	7.5	+2.7	9-2	10	2	9.8	2.2	84.0%	10
9	9	Georgia	6.0	+0.5	9-2	10	2	9.9	2.1	49.0%	9
8	10	Marshall	5.5	-6.1	11-0	13	0	12.7	0.3	68.4%	--
13	11	UCLA	4.6	+1.5	9-2	10	2	9.7	2.3	21.9%	8
14	12	Wisconsin	3.0	-0.1	9-2	10	2	9.8	2.2	39.8%	15
16	13	Kansas St	2.8	+1.3	8-2	9	3	9.2	2.8	23.3%	11
19	14	Arizona	1.4	+0.8	9-2	10	2	9.6	2.4	15.4%	13
18	15	Arizona St	1.1	+0.3	9-2	9	3	9.4	2.6	7.2%	12
15	16	Colorado St	1.0	-0.8	10-1	11	1	10.7	1.3	53.3%	23
21	17	Missouri	0.6	+0.4	9-2	9	3	9.4	2.6	7.6%	18
20	18	Georgia Tech	0.5	-0.1	9-2	10	3	9.7	3.4	7.1%	16
22	19	Auburn	0.2	+0.2	8-3	8	4	8.3	3.7	31.0%	14
--	20	Minnesota	0.0	0.0	8-3	8	4	8.2	3.8	3.6%	17
--	21	Louisville	0.0	0.0	8-3	9	3	8.8	3.2	76.0%	19
11	22	Mississippi	0.0	-4.3	8-3	9	3	8.6	3.4	58.0%	20(t)
25	23	Oklahoma	0.0	0.0	8-3	9	3	9.0	3.0	95.0%	20(t)
--	24	Clemson	0.0	0.0	8-3	9	3	8.7	3.3	66.0%	22
23	25	Utah	0.0	0.0	7-4	8	4	7.7	4.3	74.0%	24

Dropped out: #12 Duke, #17 Nebraska, #24 USC

The top trio has a clear path but the next four teams are uncertain, and once again it's TCU and Mississippi State that lead the group, and there's only one spot available for the two. The Bulldogs were #4 with the Committee last week and if they beat Mississippi—and don't get in the SEC title game—they finish 11-1 and probably stay in the top four. That might be their best hope, too, because if they have 2 games their odds of winning out are pretty low by our estimates.

TCU's situation is still complicated by their loss to Baylor. If the Bears win out, will the Horned Frogs remain in front? TCU has Texas and Iowa State left, and neither win gains them much—hence the 80% chance to win out but less than 50% chance to make the Playoff. Baylor plays Texas Tech then Kansas State, and the latter gives them a chance to impress. But they're only #7 by the Committee's rankings last Tuesday, so they'd need to pass Ohio State as well as TCU and Mississippi State—unless other teams lose, which is very possible.

Ohio State also plays a rivalry game, hosting Michigan before taking on either Wisconsin or Minnesota in the Big Ten title game. The Committee has seemingly forgiven them for losing to Virginia Tech, and the Wisconsin game could give them a boost, but it's high-risk. Beating Minnesota again probably doesn't do much for them. Wisconsin might have an outside shot at the Playoff at 11-2 but Minnesota wouldn't at 10-3, hence their odds of 3% and 0% respectively.

Outside the top seven there's not much immediate hope, as every Power Five team has at least two losses. Some of the rankings, such as Michigan State, better represent their expected finish in the bowl pecking order. It would take a crazy miracle for the Spartans to make the top four but a 10-2 finish would keep them in the Committee top 10. Georgia, at #9, has an actual path to the top four: winning the SEC title game over a 1-loss Alabama or Mississippi State. The problem is that Missouri (our #17) didn't lose as expected and if the Tigers beat Arkansas they'll win the East, not the Bulldogs. Missouri's odds of beating Arkansas and Bama/Miss State are very low, and even that probably doesn't put them in the top four. But they'd be the SEC champs, and that might be hard to ignore. It would be interesting to say the least.

At #11 UCLA is another 2-loss Power Five conference hopeful and they control their destiny to winning the Pac-12. Their odds of doing so are about 20% but their Playoff odds are under 5% since the SEC is the most likely conference to have a 2-loss team in. Other Pac-12 South hopefuls still include Arizona (our #14 this week) and Arizona State (#15) who play this Friday; both will be hoping for a UCLA loss to Stanford to open the door to the title game. Utah was eliminated by Arizona on Saturday.

Georgia Tech is the least likely of the 2-loss usurpers at 0.5%. Not because they can't beat Florida State—it's clear the Seminoles are vulnerable to anyone and right now we favor the Yellow Jackets! But they face Georgia first, and that's what keeps their odds of winning out at just 7%. If they beat the Bulldogs, and then FSU? They pretty much leap to the top of the 2-loss teams. Still doesn't get them in under current circumstances, but circumstances change.

Marshall falls to #10, which is still unrepresentative of their situation. As our projection weighs the Committee's pronouncements more heavily near the end, their odds will continue to take a hit as it becomes clear they might not even make the top 25. Normally a team in their situation would end up near the top 10 in the polls, but the Committee's refusal to place the Herd in their rankings has kept them down with the voters, too, it seems. It's also making their odds of a New Year's Day bowl berth dicey. We don't think they'll be in the Committee's top 25 this week, and Boise State could be, giving the Broncos a better shot at a January 1st bowl despite their 2 losses. Boise is also playing spoiler to Colorado State, which can't be a conference champ unless the Broncos lose to Utah State. The Rams, too, lose some luster but drop back only a spot since Duke and Nebraska each suffered their third loss and fell out altogether.

The teams ranked #19 and below are jockeying for bowl position and have no shot at the Playoff given their 3+ losses. But Auburn might be an exception if all hell breaks loose. Wins over Kansas State, Ole Miss, LSU—and Alabama next week—would make them a top 10 team, and in a crazy universe where every top contender loses twice, they'd be standing near the top when the dust clears. Not terribly plausible, though.

Because the Committee's pronouncements are becoming ever more important, we'll revise these rankings Tuesday evening after they give us their current list. They always throw a few surprises down the pike.

 

Playoff Odds, week 12: Alabama replaces Mississippi State, TCU holds on

There wasn't much change at the top of this week's College Football Playoff odds chart, except for the obvious replacement of Mississippi State with Alabama at the #3 spot.The bigger moves were all outside the top 8.

Florida State remained #1 and increased their odds to their highest total yet, even higher than the 83.5% chance we gave them in the pre-season when they were forecast to be nearly unbeatable. Their odds of winning out still don't match what we gave them back then, amazingly. But with 10 wins under their belt and the Committee rankings becoming more important to our forecast, the Seminoles are in good shape. We don't know whether the Committee will put them #1 or #2 come Tuesday so we hedge, but we think in the end a 13-0 FSU would probably take the top seed. The question is whether a 1-loss FSU would get in, and that's debatable, but as the number of 1-loss teams dwindles that becomes more likely, too.

Oregon remains #2 in an idle week but increases their odds to 77%. That's mostly from the Committee's unexpected decision to jump them to #2 last Tuesday, which means they could be #1 on the 18th. Like FSU, we can safely say that if they win out, they're in. Oregon State's upset of Arizona State dinged them in three ways: 1) they won't have a 1-loss ASU to beat in the Pac-12 title game, 2) Oregon State looks a bit tougher to beat, and 3) UCLA probably wins the Pac-12 and will be tougher than ASU would have been. This adds up to very little concern, however, reducing their odds to win out from 66.1% to 65.6%.

Alabama controls their Playoff destiny, too. The Committee only had them #5 last weeks so we figure they'll be #3 on Tuesday, but with the Committee you never know. In any case they appear headed for the Playoff, but Georgia is going to be a tough obstacle assuming the Bulldogs win the East; if Missouri gets in, Alabama's life gets much easier. They still have to beat Auburn, too, of course.

TCU might only be #5 in the Committee's list this week, based on where Mississippi State landed in the AP and Coaches' polls. The Horned Frogs had trouble with Kansas (which we predicted, *pats own back*) but survived, and Minnesota's loss diminished one of their better wins. On the other hand, they beat the Gophers 30-7 while Ohio State won 31-24. We still see TCU as the most likely 4th team based mainly on their easy path ahead, though if Mississippi State wins out it they might be bumped, and there's always the loss to Baylor looming if both are 11-1. Fittingly, TCU is still under 50% likelihood.

College Football Playoff odds chart, post-week 12 (11/16/2014)

Last week	11/16 Rank	Team	Playoff Odds %	% Change +/-	11/16 Rec	Projected Record				Odds to win out	CFPc 11/18 Proj
						Straight up		Cumulative
						W	L	W	L
1	1	Florida St	86.7	+16.5	10-0	13	0	11.9	1.1	24.3%	1.5
2	2	Oregon	76.8	+14.0	9-1	12	1	11.6	1.4	65.6%	1.5
5	3	Alabama	55.0	+10.9	9-1	11	1	10.7	1.3	31.7%	3
4	4	TCU	46.1	-0.8	9-1	11	1	10.8	1.2	79.4%	5
3	5	Mississippi St	35.2	-17.5	9-1	10	2	10.3	1.7	8.3%	4
6	6	Baylor	34.6	+1.3	8-1	11	1	10.8	1.2	74.9%	6
7	7	Ohio State	22.8	-3.2	9-1	11	1	10.7	1.3	37.1%	7
8	8	Marshall	11.6	-1.4	10-0	13	0	12.5	0.5	55.5%	21
17	9	Georgia	5.5	+4.1	8-2	10	2	9.9	2.1	47.0%	10.5
12	10	Michigan St	4.8	-0.2	8-2	10	2	9.8	2.2	39.4%	10.5
13	11	Mississippi	4.3	+1.2	8-2	10	2	9.4	2.6	18.9%	8
9	12	Duke	3.5	-9.5	8-2	10	2	9.8	2.2	38.6%	25.5
21	13	UCLA	3.1	+2.2	8-2	10	2	9.3	2.7	11.9%	9
19	14	Wisconsin	3.1	+1.9	8-2	10	2	9.7	2.3	33.1%	15
14	15	Colorado St	1.8	-0.8	9-1	11	1	10.6	1.4	40.2%	24
18	16	Kansas St	1.5	+0.2	7-2	9	3	8.7	3.3	11.5%	12
11	17	Nebraska	1.4	-4.2	8-2	10	2	9.4	2.6	15.3%	23
10	18	Arizona St	0.8	-10.5	8-2	9	3	9.3	2.7	6.8%	14
22	19	Arizona	0.6	+0.3	8-2	9	3	9.0	3.0	4.6%	13
23	20	Georgia Tech	0.6	+0.4	9-2	9	3	9.1	2.9	6.4%	16
24	21	Missouri	0.2	+0.2	8-2	8	4	8.8	3.2	1.8%	19
15	22	Auburn	0.0	-2.4	7-3	8	4	8.3	3.7	31.0%	17
--	23	Utah	0.0	0.0	7-3	9	3	8.4	3.6	10.0%	18
--	24	Southern Cal	0.0	0.0	7-3	8	4	8.1	3.9	7.6%	20
--	25	Oklahoma	0.0	0.0	7-3	9	3	8.9	3.1	93.1%	22

Dropped out: #16 Clemson, #20 Notre Dame, #25 Minnesota

Mississippi State won't fall far from the #1 spot in the Committee's rankings, probably landing at #4 ahead of TCU; they have a loss to 1-loss Alabama while TCU has a loss to 1-loss Baylor, and both were very close. And then they have all those wins, which TCU lacks, right? Well, they did, but now those wins don't look so great. At the time they beat LSU, Texas A&M, and Auburn, all were undefeated and in the top 10. Now they are 7-4, 7-4, and 7-3, and only Auburn is still in the top 25. TCU has two top 25 wins (Kansas State and Oklahoma). This will be an interesting placement. The Bulldogs' still have to face Ole Miss on the road, but if they win that and Alabama goes to the SEC title game, they'll be 11-1, same as TCU—and neither will have a conference championship. Who gets in then?

Maybe it's Baylor, since an 11-1 Baylor would be the Big Twelve champion. They'd have three top 25 wins by that point, better than both TCU and Mississippi State. The Bears increase their odds very slightly in the off week, mostly due to Arizona State losing which gets rid of another team that essentially controlled their destiny in staying ahead of Baylor.

Ohio State remains at #7, their odds dipping slightly despite knocking off Minnesota. The Buckeyes only beat the Gophers by 7 points (we picked the exact margin of victory, *past self on back, 2nd time*), and more importantly, Wisconsin elevated themselves with their win over Nebraska, making Ohio State's path to 12-1 tougher. It also took away a potential win over an 11-1 Cornhusker team. Now they face a Wisconsin team that already lost to LSU, an SEC West also-ran. At least Virginia Tech beat Duke, which evened the Hokies' record at 5-5, so OSU doesn't have a loss to a losing team any more.

Marshall will probably debut in the Committee rankings this week, but even as they go 10-0 with a solid win over Rice (they won 42-14; for comparison, Notre Dame won 48-17 and Texas A&M 38-10) their odds drop slightly as the Committee rankings become paramount. There are still too many 1-loss Power Five teams, and the Committee is putting 2- and even 3-loss teams ahead of the Herd. They should still be in good shape for the New Years' Day bowl reserved for Group of Five conference champs, but we'll know more on Tuesday. Colorado State is another potential New Year's Day bowl choice and they should come in at #24 this Tuesday, but they'd have to win the Mountain West and it's looking less likely that they'll make the title game; they slip to #15, down from 2.6% to 1.8%.

Now the changes start. Georgia demolished Auburn and jumps 8 spots to #9. The Bulldogs have a real chance to win the SEC title game—if they can get there. They need Missouri to lose, which is pretty likely since the Tigers play both Tennessee and Arkansas. Missouri moves up to #21 after beating Texas A&M but the road ahead is tough and that loss to Indiana might keep them out even as SEC champs!

Michigan State and Mississippi slide up as Duke falls after losing to Virginia Tech. The Spartans' chance to make the Big Ten title game are very low, and their Playoff odds dropped a bit; meanwhile Mississippi can still make the SEC title game if they beat Mississippi State and Auburn beats Alabama. Duke goes from 13% odds to 3.5% odds but only falls from #9 to #12 since the numbers are so sparse outside the top 10. Although it's about 50/50 they fall out of the Committee top 25 this week, Blue Devils still should get to the ACC title game (they have UNC and Wake Forest left, and hold the tiebreaker over Georgia Tech) and face Florida State. A win their would make them among the top 2-loss teams, but lots of 1-loss teams have to clear out first.

UCLA made a huge jump from #21 to #13, but it's not hard to move around in the lower ranks; the Bruins' odds only increased 2.2 percentage points to 3.1%. The genesis of the move was the fact that they now control their destiny in the Pac-12 South: they have yet to play USC and hold wins over Arizona State and Arizona. Their low odds of beating Oregon in a rematch—and the low odds of getting in with 2 losses—keep their Playoff Odds correspondingly low. Arizona State falls from #10 to #18 as a result of their loss to Oregon State (an upset we predicted, *pats self on back, 3rd time*) while Arizona rises to #19. Utah and USC also re-enter the rankings at #23 and #24; both can still win the South and therefore have a shot at winning the Pac-12, but the Playoff (and therefore the Rose Bowl) is out of reach.

Wisconsin gave themselves a shot in the arm by beating Nebraska 59-24 but like most 2-loss teams it's probably too little too late. They rise to #14 (3.1% odds) while the Cornhuskers fall to #17. Nebraska had a real chance as a 1-loss team but that's gone for all intents and purposes. Kansas State moves up to #16 but has the 2-loss problem, too, and in the Big Twelve it's worse. Their loss to Auburn isn't as "good" as it was a few weeks ago, either, as the Tigers lost for the 2nd straight week and fall to #22, their odds placed at exactly 0.0% with three losses.

Oklahoma moves back in at #25; the Sooners have three losses and no Playoff chance, but the top 25 will be used for bowl placements so being in it is better than being out. Speaking of being out, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Minnesota all dropped out after receiving their 3rd losses. Clemson was in decent position for the Orange Bowl if they won out, and Notre Dame would have had a good bowl game as a 2-loss team, also. Minnesota was nearly certain to lose somewhere with Ohio State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin remaining, so even last week at 7-2 their Playoff Odds were already essentially 0%.

 

Playoff Odds, week 11: Pac-12, Big Twelve helped; Big Ten, SEC hurt

The Pac-12 and the Big Twelve came out of the weekend in better shape in the aggregate, though for the latter conference there is a big controversy brewing. The Big Ten and SEC were hurt by upsets that knocked some of their tops teams down to 2-loss status.

First, the winners. Arizona State's defeat of Notre Dame made the Sun Devils a bona fide alternative to Oregon should the Ducks lose along the way. The 55-31 win almost made up for ASU's earlier 62-27 loss to UCLA, though it would help if Oregon is 11-1 going into the Pac-12 title game; if ASU can finish 12-1 with wins over Notre Dame and Oregon they will have a strong argument for Playoff inclusion.

The Big Twelve is in stronger position for a Playoff bid after Saturday, as TCU handled Kansas State easily, 41-20, and more importantly, Baylor beat Oklahoma (soundly, 48-14). Now the conference has two possibilities to pick from and a controversy brewing as a) there is no conference championship game, b) Baylor already beat TCU, and c) TCU is ranked ahead in last week's Committee ranking and probably will remain ahead this Tuesday. Still, the conference as a whole was helped, even if the Committee would have had it a lot better with a TCU loss; that way, the regular-season-ending Baylor-Kansas State game could have been a Playoff entry game.

The Big Ten was a partial loser, however. Michigan State was the conference's best hope and they were beaten soundly by Ohio State. The Spartans already had the "Oregon problem" but they could have slipped in along with the Ducks, or in place of them if Oregon lost again. Ohio State, however, has a much bigger "Virginia Tech problem" as the Hokies are 4-5 and beat the Buckeyes in Columbus; if OSU wins the Big Ten and there are an abundance of 1-loss teams they could easily be the odd man out. On the other hand, the Ohio State "brand" name is probably worth something, given that the Committee has already shown some name bias, and if they want the Buckeyes in they can rationalize the loss as "early in the season."

The SEC took a slight hit and it was almost worse. Auburn suffered their 2nd loss which cuts the number of 1-loss or better SEC teams to two, and Alabama nearly lost that distinction, too. The SEC's bid to get two teams in the Playoff is getting complicated; though they're probably the only conference where a 2-loss team will have a chance, that won't happen if there are enough viable 1-loss teams.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff odds charts for 11/9/2014 (post-week 11)

Last week	11/9 Rank	Team	Playoff Odds %	% Change +/-	11/9 Rec	Projected Record				Odds to win out	CFP 11/11 Proj
						Straight up		Cumulative
						W	L	W	L
1	1	Florida St	70.2	-8.3	9-0	11	1	10.9	1.1	12.3%	2
3	2	Oregon	62.8	+15.0	9-1	12	1	11.6	1.4	66.1%	3
2	3	Mississippi St	52.7	-0.2	9-0	10	2	10.5	1.5	2.2%	1
4	4	TCU	46.9	+4.7	8-1	11	1	10.9	1.1	86.2%	5
6	5	Alabama	44.1	+20.3	8-1	11	1	10.4	1.6	27.1%	4
9	6	Baylor	33.3	+22.4	8-1	11	1	10.7	1.3	73.0%	7
10	7	Ohio State	26.0	+15.8	8-1	11	1	10.7	1.3	41.3%	8
8	8	Marshall	13.0	+0.4	9-0	12	0	11.7	0.3	50.9%	--
13	9	Duke	13.0	+4.9	8-1	11	1	10.5	1.5	26.5%	19
19	10	Arizona St	11.3	+8.9	8-1	10	2	10.1	1.9	7.7%	6
16	11	Nebraska	5.6	+0.4	8-1	10	2	9.9	2.1	8.4%	11
7	12	Michigan St	5.0	-18.4	7-2	10	2	9.6	2.4	36.1%	13
15	13	Mississippi	3.1	-3.3	8-2	10	2	9.4	2.6	25.0%	10
18	14	Colorado St	2.6	+0.1	9-1	11	1	10.6	1.4	41.3%	24
5	15	Auburn	2.4	-37.5	7-2	8	4	8.9	3.1	8.6%	9
17	16	Clemson	1.5	-3.2	7-2	9	3	9.2	2.8	20.8%	18
21	17	Georgia	1.4	+0.7	7-2	10	2	9.4	2.6	19.5%	16
12	18	Kansas St	1.3	-6.8	7-2	9	3	8.8	3.2	13.2%	12
20	19	Wisconsin	1.2	+0.2	7-2	10	2	9.2	2.8	16.5%	21
11	20	Notre Dame	1.1	-8.7	7-2	9	3	8.8	3.2	16.5%	17
22	21	UCLA	0.9	+0.4	8-2	10	2	9.3	2.7	11.7%	14
24	22	Arizona	0.3	0.0	7-2	9	3	8.7	3.3	3.7%	15
--	23	Georgia Tech	0.2	+0.2	8-2	9	3	8.7	3.3	3.4%	20
--	24	Missouri	< 0.1	0.0	7-2	7	5	8.1	3.9	0.5%	--
--	25	Minnesota	< 0.1	0.0	7-2	7	5	7.6	4.4	0.2%	--

Dropped out: #14 Oklahoma, #23 LSU, #25 Utah

Florida State won another lackluster game, defeating Virginia 34-20, and they remain the most likely team to get a bid even as the Miami game looks dicey. We have to assume they'll make it out of there alive, though. Their odds dip to 70% but they keep the "top seed."

Oregon pushes past Mississippi State as their path gets clearer: they've clinched the North berth in the Pac-12 title game and are likely to finish 12-1, and they'll be firmly entrenched in the Committee's top 4 come Tuesday.

Mississippi State remained undefeated but have two tough games left against Alabama and Mississippi. With Alabama likely the Committee's #4 team come Tuesday, the Bulldogs can't afford a loss to the Tide if they want to win the SEC West. They can, however, get away with losing to rival Mississippi and with an SEC title at 12-1 would be assured a bid. The path to a 2-bid SEC probably has to be: Alabama beats Mississippi State, and both 1-loss teams make it.

That became questionable due to TCU's win over Kansas State, coupled with Baylor's win over Oklahoma. The Horned Frogs will probably stay #5 on Tuesday—though they might jump Alabama, who needed overtime to beat LSU—and they remain our #4 most likely bid at just under 50%. Baylor will close some of the gap with the Committee, probably to #7, and they move up to #6 on our Odds Chart with a solid 1 in 3 chance. TCU's schedule from here is easy, hence the 86% chance to win out, and Baylor is likely to finish 11-1 as well though they play Kansas State on December 6. The Committee will have to decide how it wants to weigh Baylor's 61-58 home head-to-head win, but it's pretty certain one team or the other will make it if both are 11-1.

Ohio State replaced Michigan State, essentially, in the rankings at #7. A Spartan win would have moved Michigan State into the next level, but Ohio State is about where MSU was last week. Even if they win out and beat an 11-1 Nebraska, they'll need help. Nebraska might actually be the more viable of the two at 12-1, but they too would need several 1-loss teams to clear out (and they have to play Wisconsin yet).

Marshall hangs out at #8 and we still don't think they'll get recognition from the Committee on Tuesday, though they might come in at #24 or #25. There's been carnage but not enough for the Thundering Herd to look like an alternative given the Committee's pronouncements so far. So, too, for 9-1 Colorado State, who moves up to #14 with just a 2.6% chance as other teams' odds slide toward oblivion. Odds for losing teams are falling so fast that Clemson, who drops from 4.7% to 1.5%, actually moves up a spot at #16.

Duke and Arizona State are the "alternate" teams in the ACC and Pac-12, and will have to upset the big favorites that sit at #1 and #2 in our Odds Chart this week. Duke is at #9 and ASU #10; the Committee will probably rank them #19 and #6 this Tuesday, but Duke's chance to win out and upset FSU are far greater than Arizona State's chance to win out and upset Oregon. Note that neither is guaranteed a spot under these scenarios, of course. ASU's profile is better right now but we have them losing to Arizona on the road, while Duke should go 11-1 (we'll see).

Three-time losers Oklahoma, LSU, and Utah drop off the chart, leaving us with 25 teams with one or two losses, and no one else to consider. Georgia Tech re-enters as they look like the best team in the ACC Coastal (they trail Duke) while Missouri and Minnesota fill in the last spots. Both are 7-2 currently but are underdogs in their last three games (the Tigers to Texas A&M, Tennessee, and Arkansas, the Gophers to Ohio State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin), while still controlling their destiny to win the SEC and Big Ten. Both teams' odds barely register above absolute zero, but we need 25 teams so here there are. There is still hope!

Playoff Odds Week 10: Committee, close calls shake up forecast

Our College Football Playoff forecast looks a bit different this week, as usual. On the field, it was a play here, a play there that made a difference in several big games. But not all of the shakeup is because of what happened on the field: the Committee's first rankings tipped their hat concerning their opinion of certain teams; that gave a boost to some while weighing down others.

Florida State beat Louisville 42-31 on the road, surviving perhaps their toughest test left on their schedule (though more keep popping up—see Florida and Miami), while Mississippi State held on to beat Arkansas 17-10. Not surprisingly, the only two major undefeated teams keep their top spots in the projection, with FSU now at 78.5%, their highest certainty since week 3. The Bulldogs peek over the 50% mark, with tough tests looming at Auburn and Alabama.

Oregon moves up a notch to #3 and TCU slips in at #4. The Ducks dominated Stanford 45-16 and the rest of their path looks manageable; TCU escaped with a 31-30 win at West Virginia and their path is even easier than Oregon's, as they don't have a conference title game and they've played the hardest part of the schedule already. But despite their "easy" paths, they're still both below 50% certainty as both yet face tough conference opponents (Oregon vs. Utah, TCU vs. Kansas State this week). And at this point, winning out still doesn't guarantee either a Playoff spot; the SEC situation will affect that greatly.

We no longer have two SEC teams in our top four, but the next two at #5 and #6 are Auburn and Alabama, so depending on how the SEC shakes out two representatives is very possible. One of the Committee's main revelations is that they considered Auburn to be well ahead of Alabama, and after the Tigers' 35-31 win at Mississippi that notion should only be stronger. The two will meet in Tuscaloosa to settle things head-to-head in any case.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff Odds chart, week 10 (11/02/2014)

Last week	11/2 Rank	Team	Playoff Odds %	% Change +/-	11/2 Rec	Projected Record				Odds to win out	CFP 11/4 Proj
						Straight up		Cumulative
						W	L	W	L
1	1	Florida St	78.5	+16.8	8-0	12	0	10.8	1.2	12.7%	2
2	2	Mississippi St	52.9	+5.4	8-0	10	2	10.6	1.4	4.3%	1
4	3	Oregon	47.8	+15.1	8-1	11	1	10.6	1.4	41.5%	4
6	4	TCU	42.3	+12.2	7-1	11	1	10.6	1.4	59.6%	5
8	5	Auburn	39.8	+17.7	7-1	10	2	10.0	2.0	14.5%	3
3	6	Alabama	23.8	-23.3	7-1	11	1	9.9	2.1	16.3%	6
5	7	Michigan St	23.4	-7.4	7-1	11	1	10.3	1.7	27.1%	8
9	8	Marshall	12.7	-2.5	8-0	12	0	11.6	0.4	40.5%	--
12	9	Baylor	10.9	-1.8	7-1	10	2	9.8	2.2	15.3%	11
13	10	Ohio State	10.2	+0.3	7-1	10	2	10.1	1.9	14.8%	15
10	11	Notre Dame	9.8	-3.9	7-1	10	2	9.5	2.5	13.1%	10
18	12	Kansas St	8.1	+4.4	7-1	9	3	9.3	2.7	7.0%	7
16	13	Duke	8.1	+1.6	7-1	11	1	10.0	2.0	10.0%	22
15	14	Oklahoma	7.1	+0.3	6-2	10	2	9.7	2.3	67.8%	14
7	15	Mississippi	6.3	-16.2	7-2	10	2	9.4	2.6	29.6%	9
14	16	Nebraska	5.2	-1.7	8-1	10	2	9.9	2.1	8.5%	13
17	17	Clemson	4.7	-1.0	6-2	10	2	9.4	2.6	29.3%	18
19	18	Colorado St	2.5	0.0	8-1	11	1	10.5	1.5	34.0%	--
23	19	Arizona St	2.4	+1.1	7-1	9	3	9.5	2.5	2.5%	12
24	20	Wisconsin	0.9	+0.1	6-2	10	2	9.0	3.0	12.6%	25
11	21	Georgia	0.7	-12.5	6-2	9	3	9.0	3.0	9.8%	20
--	22	UCLA	0.6	+0.3	7-2	10	2	8.9	3.1	7.2%	16
--	23	LSU	0.5	+0.2	7-2	9	3	8.7	3.3	7.1%	17
21	24	Arizona	0.3	-1.4	6-2	9	3	8.7	3.3	3.9%	19
22	25	Utah	0.2	-1.1	6-2	9	3	8.3	3.7	2.3%	21

Dropped out: #20 East Carolina, #25 West Virginia   Others receiving "votes": Georgia Tech (7-2), Iowa (6-2), Missouri (7-2), West Virginia (6-3), Louisville (6-3), Minnesota (6-2)

The Committee speaks: Michigan State is behind Oregon; Marshall unranked; Notre Dame dumped

Another thing the Committee made clear is that Oregon is firmly ahead of Michigan State (whom they beat, after all, by 19 points). The Coaches' poll seems to have gotten the message, finally, as the Ducks pushed to #5 and knocked the Spartans to #6 (the same switch happened with Auburn and Alabama, in both the AP and USA polls). The polls did a lot of conforming to the Committee's rankings, including moving TCU up a number of spots—normally a 1-point win doesn't do that.

So the Spartans fall to #7 here, as their standing with the Committee turned out to be lower than polls were indicating. Another team unlucky with the Committee was Marshall, but in the case of the Herd they were just screwed; there should be a spot among the top 25 teams for a strong 8-0 team. It dings them slightly in our projection but they move up a spot due to other teams losing.

Those losing teams (Ole Miss, Georgia) helped Baylor and Ohio State move up three spots each. Both are underdogs in big games (Baylor at Oklahoma, the Buckeyes at Michigan State) this coming weekend and until they can win those their Playoff odds are just into double digits.

Notice that Notre Dame didn't take the same advantage, falling a spot instead of moving up. The Irish looked weak again at Navy, winning 49-39 but again, the main cause of their drop in the polls was that the Committee put them at #10 instead of #6 or #7. That means things aren't looking so rosy for a 1-loss Irish, and certainly not as a 2-loss squad. The idea was that the close loss to FSU might either consecrate them as worthy by itself, or put them in position to take advantage of a Seminole stumble. Now they have to win out and hope for the best—pretty much like everyone else, really.

Kansas State, Duke hope to steal conference championships

Baylor and Oklahoma were the Big Twelve favorites going into the season. TCU was the first to crash the party, now Kansas State is making its move, playing better every week. The Wildcats crushed Oklahoma State 48-14 (does it seem everyone is destroying the Cowboys except FSU?) and next week they visit the Horned Frogs. They move up to #12 this week, still weighed down by the task of facing TCU, West Virginia, and Baylor yet, but for now the Committee likes their only loss being Auburn, 20-14, as well as the win over Oklahoma, who the Wildcats passed for the first time in the projection.

Duke is moving even more quietly, looking for an ACC Coastal crown that will allow them another shot at Florida State. The way the Seminoles are looking these days the Blue Devils might have a reasonable shot. We favor Duke in every game left (prior to the title game) but the cumulative odds suggest a stumble somewhere before that is likely.

Pac-12 picture clearer, but four South teams are technically Playoff-alive

UCLA's win over Arizona doubled the Bruins' meager hopes, and knocked Arizona back to reality. The Wildcats didn't fall far on our chart (from #21 to #24) because we didn't give them a lot of chance to make the Playoff to begin with; they were expected to lose to the Bruins and will probably lose one more.

Arizona State beat Utah in overtime, pushing the Utes down to #25 while the Sun Devils move up to #19. Really, these important Pac-12 South games barely changed anything since the winner of the South has to go through Oregon, and three of the four have 2 losses which means even if they were to win out, they'd have very long Playoff odds.

Do SEC also-rans still have a shot?

Mississippi was undefeated two games ago, now they're 7-2 and ranked #15 in the projection. They still show a 6.3% to make the Playoff. To reach the SEC title game would require a lot to fall into place; the Rebels can beat Mississippi State but the Bulldogs would have to lose another one. Maybe Alabama, but the Tide would have to lose another one, and Auburn needs to lose twice...in short, the best hope for Ole Miss, as well as LSU (new at #23), is for chaos and a mess of 2-loss teams around the nation.

Georgia lost to Florida but has a much easier path to the title game, but even if they play it near home they don't look as capable as the Rebels. They will get Todd Gurley back after another game, but the 2-loss teams are in a holding pattern until most of the 1-loss teams are killed off, and right now there are a lot of them.

 

Who should be in the Playoff Committee's first top four? How about Arizona?

The College Football Playoff Committee announces its first Top 25 tonight, but all eyes will be on the Committee's top four teams. It will reveal a lot about what they think the purpose of the Committee is. Do they think it is

• A) To rank the best four teams in the nation for a Playoff, or
• B) To create a Playoff with the purpose of crowning a national champion

There's a big difference, and we hold that "B" is a better way to go about things. While the Committee is officially tasked with "A", there are often cases where top four teams have already met, and one has soundly and decisively defeated the other. Why include a team when we've already seen they can't be the best team in the country? The regular season much retain its importance in the Playoff era, and our philosophy is that head-to-head matchups form "invisible brackets" that lead into the bracket with the final four teams.

That said, here is the criteria we would use to determine the top four teams:

• Undefeated teams are in, unless their schedule is extremely weak
• 2-loss teams are out, except under extreme conditions (LSU 2007 is maybe the only case)

Nothing outrageous so far. That leaves 1-loss teams, and what to do with them.

1-loss teams should be ordered by head-to-head competition with other contending teams

• A decisive loss to an undefeated team should count as an eliminator game that is part of the "invisible bracket" of the regular season. If the outcome is not decisive (a close loss on the road) then there is no elimination
• In head-to-head games with other 1-loss teams, the winner should be preferred
• 1-loss teams who make the Playoff should ideally have at least one win over another 1-loss team; if this isn't possible due to lack of 1-loss teams, then wins over 2-loss teams are used, and so forth

1-loss teams who make the Playoff should have no losses that "disqualify" them from being a national championship contender. These may include:

• A blowout loss
• A loss at home
• A loss to a team with a losing record

However:

• A very close loss (overtime, Hail Mary, losses by 3 or less at home, or 7 or less on the road) can be considered a non-decisive loss and not disqualify the team from being a national title contender

From the criteria above it's clear that no 2-loss teams are currently in consideration, since there are 18 teams with 1 loss. There are three undefeated teams, and two should clearly be in the top four:

• Florida State (7-0) beat Notre Dame 31-27
• Mississippi State (7-0) beat Auburn 38-24

and then we have Marshall, undefeated but with a very poor schedule.

• Marshall (8-0) best win: 5-3 MTSU 49-24

Our position is that they should have a shot at the national title if they go unbeaten, but most people disagree so we'll make a bracket that includes them and one that excludes them.

With so many 1-loss teams, we can be pretty strict with our criteria, screening only for teams that have defeated another 1-loss team and don't have a disqualifying loss. The 1-loss teams with a win over another 1-loss team are:

• Arizona (6-1) won at Oregon 31-24
• Auburn (6-1) won at Kansas State 20-14
• Baylor (6-1) beat TCU 61-58
• Michigan State (7-1) beat Nebraska 27-22
• Mississippi (7-1) beat Alabama 23-17
• Oregon (7-1) beat Michigan State 46-27

To choose one or two teams from the above six, there are some simple observations:

• Auburn lost decisively to Mississippi State, 38-23, which should count as a "pre-playoff" result and eliminate the Tigers
• Baylor lost decisively to 6-2 West Virginia, 41-27
• Michigan State lost decisively to Oregon, who in turn lost at home to Arizona

That leaves Arizona and Mississippi. Neither of their losses is bad:

• Arizona lost at home to 5-3 USC, but by a score of 28-26 on a missed last-second field goal
• Mississippi lost 10-7 on the road to 6-2 LSU

And that makes our top four

1. Mississippi State
2. Florida State
3. Arizona
4. Mississippi

or, if Marshall gets a spot:

1. Mississippi State
2. Florida State
3. Marshall
4. Arizona

The Wildcats aren't featured in most people's "mock" top fours. Oregon is generally considered to be "ahead" of them despite the head-to-head loss. It was a close game, but it was at Oregon and right now I see no reason to put the Ducks in front.

Arizona also might be slightly ahead of Mississippi. They have a win over Oregon who has a win over Michigan State, a longer "string" of marquee wins than Mississippi is part of. The Wildcats did have a number of close wins over bad teams, but they won. If we exclude Marshall, then both Arizona and Ole Miss are in.

Luckily, the Arizona-Oregon question will be resolved by Pac-12 play—all part of the regular season's irregular pre-Playoff brackets—and the SEC will sort itself out as well, with the top bracket's Mississippi State-Mississippi matchup played in November. But if the season ended today, Arizona would deserve a spot in the top four.

What about the other 1-loss teams, who don't have a marquee win over a 1-loss team? We list them here, in rough order of how bad their one loss was:

• Notre Dame (6-1) lost at Florida State 31-27: last-play controversial road loss to undefeated team
• TCU (6-1) lost at Baylor 61-58: 3-point road loss to 1-loss team, led by 21 in 4th quarter
• Alabama (7-1) lost at Mississippi: close road loss to 1-loss team
• Nebraska (7-1) lost at Michigan State 27-22: close road loss to 1-loss team, was behind 27-3
• Kansas State (6-1) lost to Auburn 20-14: close loss to 1-loss team, but at home
• Georgia (6-1) lost at 4-4 South Carolina 38-35: close road loss
• Colorado State (7-1) lost at 6-2 Boise State 37-24: moderate road loss
• Duke (6-1) lost at 5-3 Miami 22-10: moderate road loss
• East Carolina (6-1) lost at 4-4 South Carolina 33-23: moderate road loss
• Ohio State (6-1) lost to 4-4 Virginia Tech 35-21: home loss
• Utah (6-1) lost to 2-6 Washington State 28-27: very close loss, but at home and to a losing team
• Arizona State (6-1) lost to 6-2 UCLA 62-27: blowout loss at home

Playoff Odds week 9: SportsRatings curse bites Ole Miss; FSU takes top spot

The College Football Playoff is new this year but already our projections have ruined the dreams of several teams in their quest for a spot in the final foursome. For the past three weeks, the team ranked #1—in other words, the team we consider most likely to make the Playoff, and our unofficial "top seed"—has lost after attaining that top spot.

• Auburn had just taken over from Florida State at #1 when they fell 38-23 to Mississippi State
• Then Baylor was #1, after which they lost to TCU in a 61-58 shootout
• Last week the new #1 was Mississippi; they fell to LSU yesterday 10-7

So after Mississippi's loss, we're back to where we started in the pre-season: with Florida State at #1, moving up from #2 after an idle week. Two SEC West teams remain in the top four, with Mississippi State at #2 and Alabama at #3, both up a spot. The Tide looked good against Tennessee winning 34-20, while the Bulldogs were a bit shaky against Kentucky but held on to win 45-31. We favor Alabama in the head-to-head clash and Mississippi to win the Egg Bowl, but the Bulldogs are still undefeated and #1 in the polls so they hold on to the #2 spot here. Both both Mississippi State and Alabama are slightly below the 50% waterline so there's a lot left to be sorted out in the SEC, but the conference getting two teams remains a good bet.

The #4 spot is a tight battle between three teams with Oregon edging Michigan State and TCU. That the Ducks are ahead of the Spartans makes sense if they both win out, and their odds of doing so are fairly similar. Michigan State maintains their inexplicable lead in the Coaches poll but Oregon is 3 spots ahead in the AP, and we're pretty sure that the first Committee poll will have Oregon ahead, too. They move up from #7 last week.

Speaking of the Committee, we're not concerned about their upcoming initial list; ours is a projection for the year's end. But it's pretty certain that Florida State and Mississippi State will be their top teams, probably in the order they appear in the polls (Bulldogs as top seed). The interesting thing will be to see where they put all the other teams relative to the AP and Coaches top 25.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff Odds chart, week 9 (10/26/2014)

Last week	10/26 Rank	Team	Playoff Odds %	% Change +/-	10/26 Rec	Projected Record				Odds to win out	Poll Ave
						Straight up		Cumulative
						W	L	W	L
2	1	Florida St	61.7	+2.7	7-0	11	1	10.3	1.7	7.1%	2
3	2	Mississippi St	47.5	+2.2	7-0	10	2	10.4	1.6	3.4%	1
4	3	Alabama	47.1	+11.5	7-1	11	1	10.0	2.0	15.2%	3
7	4	Oregon	32.7	+5.8	7-1	11	1	10.2	1.8	25.2%	5.5
6	5	Michigan St	30.8	+3.4	7-1	11	1	10.3	1.7	24.9%	6.5
5	6	TCU	30.1	+2.4	6-1	11	1	10.4	1.6	50.2%	10
1	7	Mississippi	22.5	-42.6	7-1	11	1	10.0	2.0	14.9%	8
10	8	Auburn	22.1	+9.8	6-1	8	4	9.1	2.9	3.1%	4
8	9	Marshall	15.2	-0.8	8-0	12	0	11.5	0.5	46.9%	23
12	10	Notre Dame	13.7	+1.8	6-1	10	2	9.4	2.6	12.7%	6.5
14	11	Georgia	13.2	+4.2	6-1	11	1	10.2	1.9	16.5%	8.5
9	12	Baylor	12.7	-0.2	6-1	10	2	9.9	2.1	19.6%	12
11	13	Ohio State	9.9	-2.1	6-1	10	2	9.9	2.1	11.4%	13
13	14	Nebraska	6.9	-4.3	7-1	10	2	10.0	2.0	12.1%	16.5
15	15	Oklahoma	6.8	+0.1	5-2	10	2	9.5	2.5	54.0%	19.5
20	16	Duke	6.5	+4.4	6-1	11	1	9.5	2.5	5.1%	24
16	17	Clemson	5.7	-0.9	6-2	10	2	9.4	2.6	36.0%	21.5
17	18	Kansas St	3.7	+0.2	6-1	9	3	9.0	3.0	4.0%	11
18	19	Colorado St	2.5	+0.2	7-1	11	1	10.1	1.9	23.0%	26.5
19	20	East Carolina	2.0	-0.2	6-1	11	1	9.6	2.4	17.0%	20
21	21	Arizona	1.7	+0.8	6-1	9	3	9.1	2.9	1.9%	14.5
22	22	Utah	1.3	+0.4	6-1	8	4	8.8	3.2	1.6%	18
24	23	Arizona St	1.3	+0.7	6-1	9	3	8.9	3.1	1.9%	14.5
--	24	Wisconsin	0.8	+0.7	5-2	10	2	8.9	3.1	10.0%	27
--	25	West Virginia	0.5	+0.1	6-2	8	4	8.2	3.8	7.0%	21

Dropped Out: #23 UCLA, #25 Louisville     Others receiving "votes": Louisville (6-2), UCLA (6-2), LSU (7-2), Missouri (6-2), Georgia Tech (6-2), Minnesota (6-2), Iowa (5-2)

Big Ten and Big Twelve: Michigan State and TCU have best shot, by far

Michigan State is first in line if Oregon falters at any time, and the Spartans need the Ducks to lose again. TCU, however, doesn't. The Horned Frogs scored 82 on Texas Tech but the pollsters weren't impressed, keeping them at #10. If the Committee holds the same opinion then the Big Twelve is likely to be shut out.

If it's not the Spartans winning the Big Ten then Ohio State might make the Playoff, but that loss to Virginia Tech looks worse each week. And yesterday's double overtime escape at Penn State didn't help. It made it look more likely the Buckeyes will lose in Lansing, and dropped Ohio State to #13. Nebraska slipped to #14 because of Wisconsin's 56-7 win over Maryland; that put the Big Ten West in much more doubt, with the Badgers now favored head-to-head over the Cornhuskers. Wisconsin moves in at #24, having only a small shot at making the Playoff as they already have 2 losses.

Baylor is the next Big Twelve team in line after TCU, with a win over the Horned Frogs and an upcoming clash with Oklahoma, who rests at #15. Both teams were idle yesterday. Kansas State blanked Texas 23-0 but are still underdogs against Baylor and TCU, which are both road games as is West Virginia. The Mountaineers brushed off Oklahoma State and debut at #25 with a 1/2 of 1% Playoff chance on our books. Better than none, but not by much.

SEC: How is the West won? We don't know

LSU's win over Mississippi just made things more complicated in the SEC West—as did Auburn's 42-35 struggle with South Carolina. The teams play each other next weekend which should help clear things up a bit. Ole Miss dropped to #7, but their win over Alabama is a strong card and they control their destiny to win the division. Auburn does not, but they're up to #4 in both polls so if they win out—but don't make the SEC championship game—they aren't out of the running. Though they are still #2 in our Strength power rating, they face Mississippi State, Georgia, and Alabama on the road yet, and we have them slight underdogs in all three.

And don't forget about Georgia. It might not even really matter who wins the SEC West, as the Bulldogs are playing stellar football without Todd Gurley and they might get him back anyway. They move up from #14 to #11 as they're now favored to beat Auburn at home.

As for LSU, they don't even appear in our top 25. With 2 losses already and a games left vs. Alabama, we think their odds of winning out, getting to the SEC title game, and winning it, are miniscule. Less miniscule than they were before Saturday, but still miniscule.

Non-Power Fives: Marshall, East Carolina don't get no respect

8-0 Marshall's only hope is to move up in the polls and it isn't happening—they actually slipped a spot in the Coaches poll after having difficulty in a 35-16 win over Florida Atlantic. They drop to #9, one rung ahead of Notre Dame. The Irish are getting respect in the polls and will have plenty if they win out, but the road game at USC is still a big hurdle and Arizona State is looking tougher, too. Still, the Irish move up two spots to #10.

East Carolina had trouble finishing off 1-6 UConn 31-21 and dropped 2 spots in the Coaches poll and 3 spots in the AP. That win over Virginia Tech isn't looking too great anymore, either. The Pirates drop one place to #20, still behind Colorado State who isn't even in either poll but has an easier path ahead.

Pac-12 has many viable alternatives, ACC doesn't

If Oregon doesn't win the Pac-12, there are a host of teams that could have a good Playoff shot. None of them has particularly good odds right now. On the other hand, if Florida State falters and doesn't make the Playoff, the ACC will be hard-pressed to have a team in the running.

Arizona, Utah, and Arizona state are only #21, 22, and 23—pretty similar to last week—but with one loss each they have potential to be in the running at the end. We project about 3 losses for each so we don't expect that potential to reach fruition. Meanwhile UCLA, who we once projected as a Playoff teams, drops off our top 25 altogether after almost losing to lowly Colorado.

Duke might be the most likely ACC replacement for FSU, and the Blue Devils are once again favored to win out now that Pitt lost so badly to Georgia Tech. Their odds of going 12-1 are just 5%, while Clemson has a solid chance to win out but probably won't reach the ACC final. Neither will Louisville who drops out from last week's #25 despite the fact that we're predicting a win over Florida State this coming Thursday.

If Louisville does beat FSU, that will continue the top seed curse. The Seminoles might remain in the top four since a loss is partially factored in already; it would depend on how the pollsters respond. Stop by next week to see what happened.

Weekly Top 40 Countdown: All the teams with a Playoff prayer

As of Week 8 in the 2014 season we're down to three undefeated Power Five teams, and two of them are on a collision course. Might we see a perfect "BCS year" a year after the BCS was dismantled, with two major undefeated teams? Possibly. We might also see a perfect year for a 4-team Playoff, or a 6- or 8-team Playoff. Four teams it is, however.

And now that we are absolutely certain that 1-loss teams will be in the mix, let's look for the ones that have the best shot to win their conference, which should be the main thing giving 1-loss teams an advantage over the others. Before the 1-loss teams, we have the undefeated Power Five teams.

Level One: Undefeated Power Five conference teams. If any of these teams win out, they get a Playoff spot.

• Florida State (7-0; wins ACC)
• Mississippi (7-0; wins SEC)
• Mississippi State (6-0; wins SEC)

The Mississippi teams play each other, and FSU has looked vulnerable while knocking Notre Dame out of this category. Baylor lost to West Virginia and fell to Level Two. We could very easily be left with no undefeated teams this year.

Level Two: Power Conference teams with 1 loss. The first of the following two lists is made up of those who are guaranteed to win their conference if they win out, giving them an excellent Playoff shot:

• Arizona State (5-1; leads UCLA in Pac-12 South)
• Duke (6-1; leads Miami in ACC Coastal)
• Georgia (6-1; leads SEC East, well ahead of South Carolina)
• Kansas State (5-1; undefeated in Big Twelve; loss is to Auburn)
• Michigan State (6-1; leads Big Ten East; loss is to Oregon)
• Minnesota (6-1; undefeated in Big Ten West lead; loss is to TCU)
• Nebraska (6-1; lost only to Michigan State from Big Ten East)
• Ohio State (5-1; unbeaten in Big Ten East; loss is to Virginia Tech)
• Oregon (6-1; lost only to Arizona from Pac-12 South)
• Utah (5-1; lost only to Washington State from Pac-12 North)

Last weekend we lost Iowa, Kentucky, Oklahoma State, Oregon State, and Rutgers from this group. None of those was really a surprise, but they were all in control of their conference destiny until their defeat; now they're in 2-loss purgatory but three of them still control their destiny (see Level Four).

Level 2B: These Power Five 1-loss teams need help to win their conference.

• Notre Dame (6-1; has no conference title to claim)
• Arizona (5-1; needs USC to lose once)
• TCU (5-1; needs Baylor to lose once to win Big 12 outright)
• Alabama (6-1; needs Mississippi to lose twice)
• Auburn (5-1; needs Mississippi State to lose twice)
• Baylor (6-1; needs West Virginia and Kansas State to lose once each)

This group added Baylor and Notre Dame while losing Georgia Tech, Washington, and Oklahoma. Washington would have left this group either way—had they won, they would have controlled their Pac-12 destiny due to Stanford's loss. We place the Irish at the top of this group; they can't win a conference, but they're in good shape with only a tough road loss to defending champ FSU.

Level Three - Undefeated non-Power Five teams. Destiny Control is high in terms of their finish, but not in terms of how the Committee will perceive them. Marshall is the only one left here.

• Marshall (7-0)

Level Four - 2-loss Power Conference teams. These teams need help outside their conference and usually inside the conference. We divide these into the few that still control their destiny toward winning their conference, and those that need help. The former group loses Boston College, Stanford, and Virginia—every 2-loss team that controlled its destiny last week. But West Virginia and Wisconsin step up from Level 4B, while Iowa, Kentucky, and Oregon State drop in from the 1-loss group.

• Iowa (5-2; lost to Big Ten East Maryland and Big Twelve's Iowa State)
• Kentucky (5-2; leads Florida in the SEC East; also lost to SEC West LSU)
• Oregon State (5-2; lost to Pac-12 South USC and Utah)
• West Virginia (5-2; leads Oklahoma in the Big Twelve; also lost to Alabama)
• Wisconsin (5-2; leads Northwestern in Big Ten West; also lost to LSU)

Level 4B: This group—2-loss teams that need help to win their conference—may grow for the next several weeks, until eventually most of them lose or find their hopes of getting to the championship game gone. This week California, Florida, Virginia Tech, and Texas A&M suffered their third and final strike.

• Missouri (5-2; needs Georgia to lose once)
• USC (5-2; needs ASU to lose once)
• Clemson (5-2; needs FSU to lose twice)
• Maryland (5-2; needs Ohio State to lose twice)
• Oklahoma State (5-2; needs TCU to lose twice)
• Georgia Tech (5-2; needs Duke to lose twice, UNC once)
• Louisville (6-2; needs Clemson to lose twice, FSU once)
• Penn State (4-2; needs Michigan State, Ohio State, and Michigan to lose once each)
• UCLA (5-2; needs Utah to lose twice, Arizona State once)
• Washington (5-2; needs Oregon to lose twice, Stanford once)
• Oklahoma (5-2; needs Kansas State three times, TCU twice)
• LSU (6-2; needs Mississippi State to lose three times, Auburn twice, Ole Miss once)
• Rutgers (5-2; needs Ohio State to lose three times, Michigan State twice, Penn State once)

Level Five - 1-loss teams from non-Power Five conferences; these teams have almost no Playoff hope but you never know. This group lost Temple last weekend, leaving just two.

• East Carolina (5-1; lost to South Carolina; controls destiny to win American Athletic)
• Colorado State (6-1; needs Boise State to lose once to control Mtn West destiny)

That's a total of 40 teams still alive, down 8 from last week. The top group of undefeated teams dwindled from 5 to 3, and the number of 1-loss teams in control of their conference championship destiny was trimmed from 15 to 10. Overall, Power Five teams with 0 or 1 loss fell from 27 to 19. So of the 40 teams listed here, 20 can say they're still seriously in consideration at this point: those 19 and throw in undefeated Marshall. When that number drops from 20 to say, 5, then the 2-loss teams will start to have a real chance. Of course, the 2-loss teams have to survive that long...

Week 8 Playoff Odds: SEC West will have two Playoff teams

Week 8 saw two big upsets in the Big Twelve, and two very impressive performances by SEC West teams. Taken together, it has made it almost certain that the SEC will have two Playoff teams, and most likely they will both come from the SEC West.

The weekend's most underrated upset was Mississippi's 34-3 win over Tennessee. The Volunteers are just 3-4 but rank 20th in Strength, and the Rebels beat them worse than Oklahoma or Georgia did. The upshot is that Ole Miss is now favored in the Egg Bowl over Mississippi State and ranks as the "top seed" in our forecast with a 65% chance to make the Playoff. The Bulldogs slip to #3 during their idle week.

Florida State won the weekend's biggest game by beating Notre Dame 31-27. It was pretty much exactly what our power rating expected, but it gets another potential roadblock off the Seminoles' schedule and their Playoff Odds rise to 59%.

The most impressive win was Alabama's, of course. The Crimson Tide throttled Texas A&M 59-0, an amazing performance on both offense and defense. The Aggies lost to Mississippi and Mississippi State, but not nearly this bad even if you disregard the 4th quarter touchdowns they got against both teams. Last week Alabama looked like a 9-3 or 8-4 team given their remaining schedule; now they're favored to win out and look 10-2 at the worst. The Tide jump from #16 last week to #4 this week. They're favored to beat Mississippi State but the Bulldogs remain ahead at #3 since they have a chance to win out and control their destiny while Alabama doesn't.

So we now have three SEC teams in the top four—not just three SEC teams, but three teams from the SEC West. This is reflected in the polls, too, and the polls are becoming a bigger part of our forecast each week. It doesn't mean that things will end up this way, however; only Ole Miss and FSU are above the 50% mark, so it's best to think of the current forecast as: Mississippi, FSU, and either Mississippi State or Alabama, with the last spot going to TCU, Michigan State, or Oregon.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff Odds chart, week 8 (10/19/2014)

Last week	10/19 Rank	Team	Playoff Odds %	% Change +/-	10/19 Rec	Projected Record				Odds to win out	Poll Ave
						Straight up		Cumulative
						W	L	W	L
5	1	Mississippi	65.1	+32.5	7-0	12	0	10.6	1.5	8.2%	3
3	2	Florida St	59.0	+10.6	7-0	11	1	10.4	1.7	7.8%	2
2	3	Mississippi St	45.3	-6.1	6-0	10	2	10.4	1.6	4.2%	1
16	4	Alabama	35.6	+31.9	6-1	11	1	9.7	2.3	10.8%	4
6	5	TCU	27.7	-1.1	5-1	11	1	10.2	1.8	40.2%	10
8	6	Michigan St	27.4	+7.4	6-1	11	1	10.0	2.0	17.6%	6.5
10	7	Oregon	26.9	+7.8	6-1	11	1	10.1	1.9	22.8%	6.5
11	8	Marshall	16.0	+4.2	7-0	12	0	11.6	0.4	50.4%	22.5
1	9	Baylor	12.9	-47.5	6-1	10	2	9.9	2.2	19.3%	12.5
9	10	Auburn	12.3	-7.3	5-1	9	3	9.4	2.6	6.5%	5.5
12	11	Ohio State	12.0	+1.8	5-1	10	2	10.0	2.0	16.1%	12.5
4	12	Notre Dame	11.9	-24.4	6-1	10	2	9.4	2.6	12.7%	7.5
13	13	Nebraska	11.2	+2.7	6-1	11	1	10.1	1.9	14.5%	16
14	14	Georgia	9.0	+3.0	6-1	10	2	10.1	1.9	12.8%	9
7	15	Oklahoma	6.7	-20.5	5-2	10	2	9.4	2.6	51.2%	17.5
15	16	Clemson	6.6	+0.7	5-2	10	2	9.5	2.5	43.6%	20.5
22	17	Kansas St	3.5	+2.9	5-1	9	3	8.9	3.1	3.7%	11
24	18	Colorado St	2.3	+1.9	6-1	11	1	10.0	2.0	19.3%	29.5
17	19	East Carolina	2.2	+0.0	5-1	11	1	9.8	2.2	22.6%	17.5
19	20	Duke	2.1	+0.7	6-1	10	2	9.2	2.8	2.5%	26.5
23	21	Arizona	0.9	+0.4	5-1	9	3	8.6	3.4	0.8%	15
18	22	Utah	0.9	-1.2	5-1	10	2	8.5	3.5	0.9%	19
20	23	UCLA	0.6	-0.2	5-2	10	2	8.6	3.4	7.2%	26.5
--	24	Arizona St	0.6	+0.5	5-1	8	4	8.2	3.8	0.4%	14
21	25	Louisville	0.4	-0.2	6-2	9	3	8.2	3.8	4.8%	32

Dropped out: #25 Minnesota   Others receiving "votes": West Virginia (5-2), USC (5-2), Wisconsin (4-2), Minnesota (6-1), Maryland (5-2), LSU (6-2)

Big Twelve: Spoilers might have cost the conference a spot

#5 TCU ripped Oklahoma State 42-9 but two teams they have yet to face—West Virginia and Kansas State—pulled off big upsets and now look tougher to beat, so the Horned Frogs' playoff odds dipped about one percentage point to 27.7%. They're the conference's best hope for a bid, something that seemed all but guaranteed last week when Big Twelve teams held three of the top seven slots.

Last week's top seed, Baylor, lost to West Virginia 41-27 dropped to #9. Even though they beat TCU, they have yet to face Oklahoma and figure to lose that game on the road. The Sooners are in worse position with two losses after falling to Kansas State 31-30 at home, dropping from #7 to #15. That still puts them ahead of the Wildcats who have yet to face TCU and Baylor. Still, K-State jumps from #22 to #17 and they control their destiny to winning the Big Twelve—something no other B12 team can say.

Big Ten: Spartans have the conference edge but Oregon can block their Playoff hopes

Michigan State and Ohio State both won 56-17 last weekend and the Spartans are close enough in Strength to hold the projected head-to-head edge at home over the Buckeyes. So while Ohio State moves up one spot to #11, Michigan State jumps two spots to #6. That's still one spot ahead of Oregon, due to the a tougher Pac-12 schedule; Oregon has a bigger chance to have multiple losses in the Pac-12 than MSU does in the Big Ten. The Spartans have an inexplicable #5 to #7 edge in the Coaches' poll which should correct itself any week now. Ultimately, a 1-loss Oregon will be ahead of 1-loss Michigan State and probably a 1-loss Ohio State too, so it would be best for the Big Ten if Oregon lost again.

In the Big Ten West Nebraska still leads the pack after beating Northwestern this week. They're still on track to win out, but will be underdog in the Big Ten championship game. Their chief competition in the West, Minnesota, very nearly lost to Purdue and that weakness cost them their #25 spot.

Pac-12: It's basically Oregon or bust

If Oregon doesn't make the College Football Playoff the Pac-12 is probably shut out. In the North, Stanford just got their 3rd loss and every other team has two losses. In the South, Arizona, Utah, UCLA, and Arizona State all have meager odds, ranking #21 through #24.

The Wildcats are viable if they win out, but that's unlikely. Utah has a bad loss to Washington State, UCLA has two losses and barely beat Cal this weekend, and ASU has a 35-point loss to the Bruins that will haunt them despite the respect they're getting in the polls. The Sun Devils face Notre Dame in November but the Irish's loss to FSU will prevent that from being a potential defining moment for ASU. The Irish ruined the opportunity for USC, too, and the Trojans already have 2 losses including Boston College.

Non-Power conference teams: Marshall officially looking like a 13-0 team

Marshall is 7-0 and looks like a 13-0 team come December. Even the cumulative projection calls for 11.6 wins (in 12 games) and their odds to go 13-0 have moved slightly above 50%. In our All-Division Strength power rating the Thundering Herd rank just one place behind Florida State! The pollsters are warming up a bit, too, but it won't be enough to raise their ceiling; note that although they rise to #8 their odds are far behind #7 Oregon. What happened in the Big Twelve needs to happen in the SEC; Marshall needs a repeat of 2007 to have a reasonable chance at a Playoff berth, though going 13-0 will at least rate a mention in the press and spawn a few arguments.

Independent Notre Dame fell from #4 to #12 but not because of the loss to FSU, which was expected. The game at USC is looking a bit harder now and that could be the Irish's 2nd loss, and Arizona State's beatdown of Stanford makes that one look more difficult, too. Notre Dame needs to win out to have a reasonable Playoff shot and that looks a lot less likely. If they do go 11-1 and FSU remains undefeated they could be in very good shape, though.

Colorado State jumped their last major hurdle toward a 12-1 season by beating Utah State 16-13. The Rams move from #24 to #18, still basically off the radar but ahead of East Carolina, the other non-Power Five team that still has a prayer. The Pirates lost some poll support in their bye week and won't have a conference championship game to get attention. It would take a very crazy season for either of these teams to get into serious consideration, however.

The Rest of the SEC: Auburn, Georgia can still get in if they win out

The best team in the country could end up 9-3. Auburn ranks #1 in Strength, but after their loss to Mississippi State, and the fact that they play Mississippi and Alabama on the road, could end up with three losses. The SEC West might have the four best teams in the country but the conference winner could be Georgia from the East, as the championship game is played in Atlanta and the Bulldogs are good enough to beat anyone there. As of now, Auburn's odds dip to 12% and they slip to #10, while Georgia's odds are up to 9% and they hold at #14.

ACC: Teams other than FSU jockeying for bowl position

Though Clemson shows up at #16 and Louisville at #25, they both have 2 losses already and too much would have to happen for them to even get a chance at winning the conference; their rankings are going to be limited to the lower half of the chart. Assuming Florida State goes to the Playoff, then the conference needs an Orange Bowl representative. Duke in the Coastal has a clear path to a title shot but miniscule odds of winning out. One of these three teams will go to the Orange Bowl, the others to lesser bowl games.

Destiny Control report, week 7: Who is most in charge of their own fate?

Once again, it's time to look at which teams control their destiny to the College Football Playoff. After week 7 just six teams are left undefeated, five of them Power Five or equivalent teams. 22 more Power Five teams have just 1 loss, and 15 of them control their destiny toward winning their conference.

Level One: Undefeated Power Five conference teams. If any of these teams win out, they get a Playoff spot.

• Baylor (6-0; wins Big Twelve)
• Florida State (6-0; wins ACC)
• Mississippi (6-0; wins SEC)
• Mississippi State (6-0; wins SEC)
• Notre Dame (6-0)

Note that two pairs of teams (FSU and Notre Dame, Mississippi and Mississippi State) play each other, meaning that there will be at least one slot open for a 1-loss team—assuming Marshall doesn't slip in (see Level 3).

Level Two: Power Conference teams with 1 loss. These teams are in line behind the undefeated teams, but the first list is made up of those who are guaranteed to win their conference if they win out, giving them an excellent Playoff shot:

• Arizona State (4-1; leads UCLA in Pac-12 South)
• Duke (5-1; leads Miami in ACC Coastal)
• Georgia (5-1; leads SEC East)
• Iowa (5-1; tied for Big Ten West lead)
• Kansas State (4-1; undefeated in Big Twelve)
• Kentucky (5-1; leads Florida in SEC East)
• Michigan State (5-1; leads Big Ten East)
• Minnesota (5-1; tied for Big Ten West lead)
• Nebraska (5-1; lost to Michigan State from Big Ten East)
• Ohio State (4-1; unbeaten in Big Ten East)
• Oklahoma St (5-1; undefeated in Big Twelve)
• Oregon (5-1; tied for Pac-12 North lead)
• Oregon State (4-1; lost to USC from Pac-12 South)
• Rutgers (5-1; leads Penn State in Big Ten East)
• Utah (4-1; lost to Washington State from Pac-12 North)

Arizona State, Kentucky, and Rutgers moved from Level 2B to the bracket above this week, as losses by UCLA, Florida, and Penn State gave them control over winning their division and therefore their conference.

Level 2B: These Power Five 1-loss teams need help to win their conference. This group changed the most from last week, as three teams moved up into Level 2, and two dropped to Level 4 by losing, and four more teams moved in by suffering their first loss.

• Arizona (5-1; needs USC to lose once)
• Georgia Tech (5-1; needs Duke to lose once)
• Oklahoma (5-1; needs TCU to lose once to win Big 12 outright)
• Washington (5-1; needs Stanford to lose once)
• Alabama (5-1; needs Mississippi to lose twice)
• Auburn (5-1; needs Mississippi State to lose twice)
  
• TCU (4-1; needs Baylor to lose twice to win Big 12 outright)

Oklahoma's situation improved from needing TCU to lose twice to needing the Horned Frogs to lose once more.

Level Three - Undefeated non-Power Five teams. Destiny Control is high in terms of their finish, but not in terms of how the Committee will perceive them. Marshall is the only one left here.

• Marshall (6-0)

Level Four - 2-loss Power Conference teams. These teams need help outside their conference and usually inside the conference. We divide these into the few that still control their destiny toward winning their conference, and those that need help. The top group dwindled to three teams from last week's five:

• Boston College (4-2; lost to MW Colorado State and ACC Coastal Pitt)
• Stanford (4-2; lost to Pac-12 South USC and Ind. Notre Dame)
• Virginia (4-2; lost to Pac-12 UCLA and Ind. BYU, both close games)

Level 4B: This group—2-loss teams that need help to win their conference—may grow for the next several weeks, until eventually most of them lose or find their hopes of getting to the championship game gone.

• Florida (3-2; needs Kentucky to lose once)
• Missouri (4-2; needs Georgia to lose once)
• USC (4-2; needs ASU to lose once)
• Virginia Tech (4-2; needs Georgia Tech to lose once)
• West Virginia (4-2; needs Oklahoma to lose once)
• Wisconsin (4-2; needs Northwestern to lose once)
• California (4-2; needs Washington to lose twice)
• Clemson (4-2; needs FSU to lose twice)
• Maryland (4-2; needs Ohio State to lose twice)
• Louisville (5-2; needs Clemson to lose twice, FSU once)
• UCLA (4-2; needs Utah to lose twice, Arizona State once)
• Penn State (4-2; needs Michigan State, Ohio State, and Michigan to lose once each)
• LSU (5-2; needs Mississippi State to lose three times, Auburn twice, Ole Miss once)
• Texas A&M (5-2; needs Mississippi State and Ole Miss to lose three times each)

Level Five - 1-loss teams from non-Power Five conferences; these teams have almost no Playoff hope but you never know. This group took a hit last week losing Air Force, BYU, and Northern Illinois:

• East Carolina (5-1; lost to South Carolina, controls destiny to win American Athletic)
• Temple (4-1; lost to Navy, controls destiny in American Athletic)
• Colorado State (5-1; needs Boise State to lose once in MW)

That's a total of 47 teams still alive, down 8 from last week. Last week 9 teams had "full" destiny control, and now only 5 do with 15 main contenders to move in if those teams slip. .

Week 7 Playoff Odds: Baylor, Mississippi State only teams above 50%; Notre Dame at #4

As if last week wasn't too much to handle, week 7 created quite a mess on our College Football Playoff Odds chart. Mainly it was Mississippi State's upset of Auburn that wreaked havoc, but a number of more subtle developments had big effects, too.

The upshot is that the entire top ten is expected to finish 11-1, with no team other than Marshall slated to be undefeated even before conference championships are played! That's looking game by game; going by the odds, the cumulative projected records are even worse, and it leaves 10 teams at 19% or greater odds to make the Playoff, with only two that are above the 50% waterline.

Baylor now holds the "top seed" designation after beating TCU 61-58 in a remarkable comeback. Their biggest hurdle is Oklahoma but they also played AP-ranked teams Oklahoma State and Kansas State. We favor Oklahoma in Norman and that would create a 3-way tie for the Big Twelve title.

Mississippi State beat previous top seed Auburn 38-32 and now ranks #1 in both polls. They have a tough SEC schedule still ahead but we favor them to win out until a nail-biter loss at Ole Miss. That's essentially a 50/50 game so the odds give the Bulldogs an excellent chance be the top SEC team when the smoke clears, and we give them just over a 50% chance to make the Playoff.

Florida State drops another spot to #3 and falls just below 50%. The problem with the Seminoles is they just haven't played that well; they rank #22 in our All-Division Strength power rating, and play three teams in that neighborhood: #20 Florida, #21 Notre Dame, and #24 Louisville. The first two games are at home so "straight up" they win those two and lose at Louisville, but all three are close contests.

Speaking of Notre Dame, though they didn't play well in beating North Carolina 50-43 they are still undefeated at 6-0, up to #5 in both polls, and have a good shot at beating Florida State this coming weekend. Since we now expect them to be able to beat USC, too, that puts them within striking distance of a Playoff berth at 36%—and with the uncertainty in SEC and Big Twelve race, that's good enough for #4 right now. It's not quite accurate to say they're expected to be in the Playoff by these projections, but they have a better chance than all but three other teams.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff odds chart, week 7 (October 12, 2014)

Last week	10/12 Rank	Team	Playoff Odds %	% Change +/-	10/12 Rec	Projected Record				Odds to win out	Poll Ave
						Straight up		Cumulative
						W	L	W	L
3	1	Baylor	60.4	+8.2	6-0	11	1	11.0	1.0	25.4%	4
10	2	Mississippi St	51.4	+35.5	6-0	11	1	10.7	1.3	9.3%	1
2	3	Florida St	48.4	-12.5	6-0	11	1	9.8	2.2	3.5%	2
7	4	Notre Dame	36.3	+12.8	6-0	11	1	10.0	2.0	7.3%	5
4	5	Mississippi	32.6	+0.4	6-0	11	1	9.9	2.1	2.3%	3
5	6	TCU	28.8	-2.5	4-1	11	1	10.3	1.7	45.9%	12
6	7	Oklahoma	27.2	+1.3	5-1	11	1	10.2	1.8	38.9%	11
12	8	Michigan St	20.0	+11.3	5-1	11	1	9.7	2.3	10.3%	7
1	9	Auburn	19.6	-42.8	5-1	11	1	9.6	2.4	9.4%	7
18	10	Oregon	19.1	+16.9	5-1	11	1	9.8	2.2	11.7%	9
11	11	Marshall	11.8	-2.8	6-0	12	0	11.1	0.9	25.3%	24.5
8	12	Ohio State	10.2	-10.4	4-1	10	2	9.8	2.2	11.9%	13
16	13	Nebraska	8.5	+4.6	5-1	11	1	9.7	2.3	8.8%	19
20	14	Georgia	6.0	+4.2	5-1	10	2	9.6	2.4	7.5%	10
14	15	Clemson	5.9	+0.9	4-2	10	2	9.3	2.7	35.5%	23
15	16	Alabama	3.7	-0.4	5-1	9	3	8.5	3.5	0.8%	7
19	17	East Carolina	2.2	+0.4	5-1	11	1	9.8	2.2	23.7%	17
13	18	Utah	2.1	-2.9	4-1	9	3	8.8	3.2	2.6%	21.5
25	19	Duke	1.4	+0.8	5-1	10	2	8.8	3.2	1.4%	28.5
9	20	UCLA	0.8	-16.2	4-2	10	2	8.6	3.4	8.7%	26
23	21	Louisville	0.6	-0.4	5-2	9	3	8.3	3.7	6.4%	38
--	22	Kansas St	0.6	+0.3	4-1	8	4	7.8	4.2	0.3%	14
17	23	Arizona	0.5	-2.3	5-1	9	3	8.3	3.7	0.4%	16.5
--	24	Colorado St	0.4	+0.2	5-1	10	2	9.4	2.6	8.5%	39.5
--	25	Minnesota	0.2	+0.1	5-1	8	4	8.0	4.0	0.1%	28.5

Dropped out: #21 BYU, #22 Northern Illinois, #24 Texas A&M;  Others receiving "votes": Iowa (5-1), Washington (5-1), Wisconsin (4-2), Virginia Tech (4-2), Texas A&M (5-2), Stanford (4-2), USC (4-2)

SEC is a mess (especially the West)

Last week's #4 Mississippi remained unbeaten and gained slightly from their win over Texas A&M, but were bumped to #5; their odds of beating rival Mississippi State slipped to a sliver over 50%. If they win the Egg Bowl but lose to #9 Auburn (who is still #1 in Strength), then there will be three 11-1 teams from the West. Adding to the West's woes, Georgia was incredible against Missouri—without Todd Gurley—and playing in Atlanta is a threat to beat anyone from the West in the SEC championship game. The Bulldogs move up to #14, while Alabama falls to #16; they didn't look good against Arkansas and now look like they might finish with three losses.

The Big Twelve is a bigger mess

TCU slipped to #6 after their loss, while Oklahoma was less-than-spectacular against Texas and slides to #7 (though their Playoff Odds inch up to 27%). Both of these teams are still very much in the thick of the race; the Horned Frogs were expected to lose to Baylor and already beat Oklahoma. If the Sooners beat Baylor (as they should, at home), then the three will be locked in at 11-1. With no championship game, the Committee will have to make a judgement, and by the tie-breaker rules of the Big Twelve, the highest-ranked team in the Committee's rankings will be declared the Big Twelve champion...so basically, the Committee decides who the champion is, and gives that team extra weight as a conference champ. This is all assuming that a team like Kansas State (new at #22) doesn't muck things up for any of these three teams, all of which they have yet to play.

Big Ten: Michigan State is their biggest hope. For now.

The Big Ten doesn't have too much chance of getting a team in the Playoff, but this week Michigan State takes over as the Big Hope at #8. They're ahead of Oregon in both polls somehow at #6 and #8, and though they didn't impress against Purdue it once again looks like they should defend their home field against Ohio State, who slips to #12. The change comes from the Spartans' and Buckeyes' opponents play, which affects their Strength ratings. Oregon won big against UCLA and Eastern Michigan actually beat someone. Meanwhile Buckeye foe Cincinnati was crushed by Miami, and Kent State was blown out by winless UMass. That was enough to tip the future MSU-OSU game to the Spartans. Football is a game of inches, even in power ratings.

In the Big Ten West, #13 Nebraska now has a good chance of going 11-1 and winning the division, while 5-1 Minnesota pops in at #25. The Gophers control their destiny toward winning the Big Ten, even though we expect them to lose three more games.

Pac-12: Oregon back in top ten

Oregon settled the UCLA matter—for now. They still might rematch the Bruins in the Pac-12 title game, but the South is still up for grabs. In any case, Oregon is expected to win the conference but rank only 15th in Strength, so it's a minefield for the Ducks. We have to assume they'll pass Michigan State in the polls at some point, and that the Committee would take a 1-loss Oregon over a 1-loss Big Ten champ Spartans. If not, it's time to get a new Committee.

In the South, Utah was idle but drops to #18 as Oregon's surge made winning the Pac-12 that much harder. UCLA drops from #9 to #20 mainly due to having 2 losses which is a hard pit to crawl out of, but it's not impossible. They've dropped out of both polls and need Utah to lose twice to get back into the Pac-12 title game, so it's understandable that their Playoff odds sit at under 1%. They're ahead of Arizona, who lost on a missed field goal to USC; our chart never really took the Wildcats seriously as a Playoff contender but they still rank ahead of the Trojans, who have 2 losses overall.

Bad week for non-Power Five teams as BYU, Nothern Illinois fall

The number of non-Power Five teams with any chance of making the Playoff continues to dwindle. BYU's hopes were essentially dead when they lost to Utah State and lost Taysom Hill in week 6, but they made it official by losing the UCF in overtime. The Cougars could still recover and have a good season but it won't be the great one it could have been. Meanwhile Northern Illinois lost to Central Michigan, giving the Huskies their 2nd loss.

Marshall, however, stayed at #11 this week. Their odds fell from 15% to 12% as the expected wealth of 11-1 teams is not a good thing for the Thundering Herd. Also their odds of going unbeaten fell from 40% to 25%, mainly due to Alabama-Birmingham looking like a much tougher foe all of a sudden. The good news is that they debuted in both polls. East Carolina won again and moved up to #18 and #16 in the polls, and #17 on our chart. And Colorado State beat Nevada and pokes in at #24. The Rams are expected to lose to Utah State next week, but if they get past the Aggies they have a solid chance of going 12-1, which gives them a Playoff prayer (though one probably unanswered).

The ACC: If not Florida State, then who?

The ACC will be the most "out of luck" conference is Florida State doesn't make the Playoff. Clemson and Louisville are the Atlantic division's other listed candidates, but both have two losses and therefore a low "ceiling" unless major carnage takes place (which is possible). Clemson beat the Cardinals, but our power rating actually expects Louisville to beat FSU. Even that's not enough to put the Cards above #21, and Clemson stands at #15 needing much help just to get to the ACC title game, even as they're ranked #10 in the nation in Strength.

In the Coastal, Duke beat Georgia Tech and basically doubled their odds (to 1.4%). The Blue Devils control their destiny in the Coastal and therefore the ACC, and if FSU stays unbeaten and Duke beats them...well, it's unlikely to happen but at least they have an actual scenario that would put them in the Playoff as ACC champs.

College Football Playoff: Destiny Control is the Name of the Game

Every week the pundits are submitting a new slate of four teams in their playoff projections (we do it too). Some places use a "If the playoffs were held today" approach, others try to look ahead to see who is most likely to be there at the end of the year.

Both of these approaches are unsatisfying to fans, however. Teams that aren't in the top 10 are rarely going to be on either list, because

• A) they haven't proven enough to be chosen "today", and
• b) they aren't considered good enough to run the table to be Playoff-bound at the end of the year.

Arizona is a good case. They're undefeated, but no one thinks they're going to finish that way. They wouldn't be chosen today just because of one good win over Oregon, and after 3 or 4 losses they wouldn't be in the Playoff at the end of the year. But Arizona fans don't want to hear either argument.

What fans want to know is: assuming their team runs the table, will they be in the Playoff? This is because fans like to look ahead with optimism, and until their team has enough losses to be practically eliminated, see what their chances are for a Playoff spot.

So that's what we'll look at right now. Starting with a list of all the teams that have even a prayer, we'll divide them into the teams that have the best shot based on their current Win-Loss record and within that, the teams that control their destiny, mainly via a path to their conference championship game.

Level One: Level One teams have full control of their destiny. These include only undefeated Power Five conference teams. If any of these teams win out, they get a Playoff spot:

• Arizona (5-0, wins Pac-12)
• Auburn (5-0, wins SEC)
• Baylor (5-0, wins Big 12)
• Florida State (5-0, wins ACC)
• Georgia Tech (5-0, wins ACC)
• Mississippi (5-0, wins SEC)
• Mississippi State (5-0, wins SEC)
• Notre Dame (5-0, would have win over FSU)
• TCU (4-0, wins Big 12)

At the start of the year there was the small chance that six major teams would be undefeated—the Power Five conferences and Notre Dame. With the Big Ten's last undefeated team (Nebraska) losing, there's now a very slim chance of five total undefeated major teams, but since Notre Dame and FSU play, it would have to be Georgia Tech running the table in the ACC. And the Pac-12 is down to just Arizona. Let's face it—any of the teams above who go undefeated are guaranteed a spot, and they all control their destiny. Those nine teams are in the driver's seat for the four Playoff spots; whether they're good enough or not is a separate issue.

Level Two: Power Conference teams with 1 loss. These teams are in line behind the undefeated teams. However, many of them control their destiny in terms of winning their conference, which in almost all cases would mean that they get a Playoff spot. For example, Florida is 3-1 with a loss to Alabama. If the Gators win out they win the SEC East and play in the SEC title game. Winning the SEC with 1 loss = practically guaranteed playoff spot. Yes there still could be 4 undefeated teams with the Georgia Tech/Arizona/Notre Dame scenario. And it's very likely there will be at least 5 teams with 1 or fewer losses, meaning even a 1-loss conference winner could be left out, but for practical purposes the following teams—call them Level 2A—have very good control over their Playoff destiny:

• California (4-1, lost to Pac-12 South Arizona)
• Duke (4-1, lost to Miami but already leads 1-2 Hurricanes in ACC Coastal standings)
• Florida (3-1, lost to SEC West Alabama)
• Georgia (4-1, lost to South Carolina but already leads 2-3 Gamecocks in SEC East standings)
• Iowa (4-1, lost to Big 12 Iowa State)
• Kansas State (4-1, lost to Auburn in close game)
• Louisville (5-1, lost to ACC Coastal Virginia)
• Michigan State (4-1, lost to Oregon)
• Minnesota (4-1, lost to TCU)
• Missouri (4-1, lost to Indiana)
• Nebraska (5-1, lost to Big Ten East Michigan State)
• Ohio State (4-1, lost to Virginia Tech)
• Oklahoma State (4-1, lost to FSU in close game)
• Oregon (4-1, lost to Pac-12 South Arizona)
• Oregon State (4-1, lost to Pac-12 South USC)
• Penn State (4-1, lost to Big Ten West Northwestern)
• Utah (4-1, lost to Pac-12 North Washington State)

Level 2B: These Power Five 1-loss teams need help. Even if they win out, the team that beat them might also win out, shutting them out of the conference championship game and therefore likely the Playoff. Alabama is a great case here; the Tide lost to undefeated Mississippi, so to regain control of their destiny they need Mississippi to lose twice (or just once and then win some kind of tiebreaker). These are presented in alphabetical order but teams that need more losses by former opponents are placed lower:

• Arizona State (4-1, needs UCLA to lose once)
• Kentucky (4-1, needs Florida to lose once)
• Rutgers (5-1, needs Penn State to lose once)
• UCLA (4-1, needs Utah to lose once)
• Washington (4-1, needs Stanford to lose once)
• Alabama (4-1, needs Mississippi to lose twice)
• Oklahoma (4-1, needs TCU to lose twice to win Big 12 outright)
• Texas A&M (5-1, needs Mississippi State to lose twice)

Level Three - Undefeated non-Power Five teams. Teams outside the Power Five conferences need to go undefeated, and even then they'll need a lot of carnage among the Power Five teams. As of now the group has been whittled down to only Marshall, who could go 13-0 in Conference USA. They control their destiny to winning that conference but have no control over what other teams do or how they'll be perceived by the Committee even at 13-0.

• Marshall (5-0)

Level Four - 2-loss Power Conference teams. These teams are in rough shape but still have hope, especially after last week's carnage made it more likely that a 2-loss team might be in position to make the Playoff at the end of the season. It's almost required for a 2-loss team to win their conference to be considered, so the split here between the 4A and 4B teams is important. The former still control their conference championship destiny despite having 2 overall losses:

• Boston College (3-2; lost to MW Colorado State and ACC Coastal Pitt)
• Northwestern (3-2; lost to Pac-12 Cal and MAC NIU; undefeated in Big Ten West)
• Stanford (3-2; lost to Pac-12 South USC and Ind. Notre Dame)
• Virginia (4-2; lost to Pac-12 UCLA and Ind. BYU, both close games)

Level 4B: These teams need some level of help to control their conference destiny. Of course other factors, such as losing to a bad team or losing at home also matter, but recovering to win their conference is critical.

• Indiana (3-2, needs Maryland to lose once)
• USC (3-2, needs ASU to lose once)
• West Virginia (3-2, needs Oklahoma to lose once)
• Clemson (3-2, needs FSU to lose twice)
• Maryland (4-2, needs Ohio State to lose twice)
• Virginia Tech (4-2, needs Georgia Tech to lose twice)
• Wisconsin (3-2, needs Northwestern to lose twice)
• Arkansas (3-2, needs Auburn to lose three times)
• LSU (4-2, needs Auburn to lose three times)
• NC State (4-2, needs FSU to lose three times, Clemson twice)

Level Five - 1-loss teams from non-Power Five conferences. Destiny control is the least of these teams' problems. Even if they win their conference, it hardly matters in the grander scheme where these teams have little chance no matter what happens. If the season turns into a complete mess then these teams might be under consideration, but they have almost no control of their Playoff destiny. They need so much help, and so many other teams have to lose multiple times, that we just list them for completeness' sake:

• Brigham Young (4-1, lost to Utah State; no conference)
• East Carolina (4-1, lost to South Carolina, controls destiny to win American Athletic)
• Northern Illinois (4-1, lost to Arkansas, controls destiny to win MAC)
• Temple (4-1, lost to Navy, controls destiny in American Athletic)
• Colorado State (4-1, needs Boise State to lose once in MW)
• Air Force (4-1, needs Wyoming to lose twice in MW)

That's a total of 55 teams still alive, with only 9 really controlling their own Playoff destiny, and 17 more still in good shape. The other 29 need some level of help, anywhere from a single loss to several dozen losses by other teams to clear their path.

Week 6 Playoff Odds: Auburn takes top seed; Oklahoma, UCLA, and Alabama out of top 4

After the weekend's carnage, only Florida State remains a Playoff favorite of last week's top four. But for the first time the Seminoles aren't the most likely to make it, and therefore not the expected "top seed."

That honor goes to Auburn, who made the weekend's biggest statement by thrashing LSU 41-7. That solidified their top rating in our Strength power rating, which we are transitioning to using for the Playoff Odds projections. Florida State is barely in the top 25 in Strength, but is still favored straight-up to win out so they hold the #2 spot with a season-low 7.5% chance to go 13-0.

The Big Twelve has a trio of teams in major contention. Baylor slides up to #3 and is just over 50% to make it to the "final four." TCU upset Oklahoma and is at the #5 spot while the Sooners slid to #6. Right now it looks like the Big Twelve could end up with three teams at 11-1, making a mess for the committee. The Bears are currently a big favorite over TCU at home and a slight underdog to Oklahoma on the road, so they are positioned best. Mississippi narrowly leads TCU at #4 after beating Alabama, so either the SEC or Big Twelve could have a 2nd team in the Playoff, shutting out the Big Ten and Pac-12 (note: we revised our calculations a bit which flipped Ole Miss and TCU, but the takeaway is the #4 spot is up for grabs and no candidate is close to the 50% threshold).

Oklahoma fell the least of the three teams that were booted because they still have great support in the polls and therefore might "win" a three-win tie in their conference. UCLA fell from #3 to #9 after losing to Utah 30-28; they're still favored to win the Pac-12 which kept them from falling as far as Alabama, who is now 4th in their own division, let alone conference. The Tide dropped to #15 and like the Bruins don't control their own destiny, but need a lot more teams to lose to get to their conference championship.

Notre Dame moved up to #7 and their odds of beating FSU are getting better each week. If that happens they could claim a spot and kick the Seminoles out, but right now they're still expected to go 10-2 and fall just short of the Playoff.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff Odds chart, post-week 6 (October 5, 2014)

Last week	10/5 Rank	Team	Playoff Odds %	% Change +/-	10/5 Rec	Projected Record				Odds to win out	Poll Ave
						Straight up		Cumulative
						W	L	W	L
9	1	Auburn	62.4	+53.7	5-0	12	0	10.4	1.6	9.1%	2
1	2	Florida St	60.9	-12.0	5-0	12	0	10.2	1.8	7.5%	1
5	3	Baylor	52.2	+18.2	5-0	11	1	10.7	1.3	18.1%	4
12	4	Mississippi	32.2	+24.2	5-0	11	1	9.6	2.4	2.0%	3.75
11	5	TCU	31.3	+23.1	4-0	11	1	10.3	1.7	9.2%	10.5
2	6	Oklahoma	25.9	-34.6	4-1	11	1	10.1	1.9	35.2%	10
10	7	Notre Dame	23.5	+15.0	5-0	10	2	9.9	2.1	5.8%	5.5
23	8	Ohio State	20.6	+19.0	4-1	11	1	9.9	2.1	18.7%	15
3	9	UCLA	17.0	-33.5	4-1	11	1	9.6	2.4	11.8%	17.5
24	10	Mississippi St	15.9	+14.8	5-0	9	3	9.5	2.5	1.1%	4.75
7	11	Marshall	14.6	+0.8	5-0	12	0	11.4	0.6	41.2%	26.5
13	12	Michigan St	8.7	+0.9	4-1	10	2	9.4	2.6	7.2%	8
--	13	Utah	5.0	+4.9	4-1	10	2	8.8	3.2	3.2%	25.5
17	14	Clemson	5.0	-0.6	3-2	10	2	9.1	2.9	26.7%	25.5
4	15	Alabama	4.1	-37.0	4-1	10	2	8.5	3.5	1.9%	7
22	16	Nebraska	3.9	+1.7	5-1	10	2	9.5	2.5	4.9%	21
--	17	Arizona	2.8	+2.7	5-0	10	2	8.9	3.1	0.2%	11.5
6	18	Oregon	2.2	-24.0	4-1	9	3	8.9	3.1	1.9%	11.5
21	19	East Carolina	1.8	-0.8	4-1	11	1	9.5	2.5	16.2%	19
14	20	Georgia	1.8	-4.6	4-1	9	3	8.7	3.3	1.4%	11.5
8	21	Brigham Young	1.8	-11.4	4-1	11	1	9.5	2.5	14.6%	31.5
20	22	Northern Illinois	1.4	-1.2	4-1	11	1	8.9	3.1	4.2%	--
--	23	Louisville	1.0	+0.9	5-1	8	4	8.3	3.7	0.8%	29
19	24	Texas A&M	1.0	-4.2	5-1	8	4	8.5	3.5	0.7%	14
18	25	Duke	0.6	-4.6	4-1	8	4	8.1	3.9	0.5%	38

Dropped out: #15 Wisconsin, #16 Maryland, #25 USC
Others receiving "votes": Georgia Tech (5-0), Florida (3-1), Kansas State (4-1), Wisconsin (3-2), Virginia Tech (4-2), Minnesota (4-1), Colorado State (4-1)

Perhaps surprisingly, one of the biggest movers this week was Ohio State. The Buckeyes beat Maryland 52-24 on the road and are looking better each game—enough that their odds of winning at Michigan State and winning the Big Ten are pretty good. The Spartans handed Nebraska their first loss but almost blew it at the end, winning just 27-22. The Spartans move up to #12 while Ohio State leaps to #8. Nebraska even move up to #16; the loss to MSU was expected and their Strength rating is favorable. Furthermore Wisconsin's loss puts the Cornhuskers in good position to win the West division. Regardless, the outlook for the Big Ten placing a team in the Playoff is low.

Mississippi State jumped after upsetting Texas A&M. Like they did against LSU the Bulldogs took a huge 4th quarter lead and squandered some of it, but they're 5-0 against a tough schedule. Their outlook in terms of expected wins isn't much different than Mississippi's, but straight up they'll be underdog in three games so while they leap to #10 they're far short of Ole Miss's #5 ranking (the Rebels are one of the teams narrowly favored to beat them).

You would think that Marshall might be a major beneficiary of the weekend's mess, but really it just increased the odds that there will be lots of 1-loss Power Five teams, a bad scenario for the Herd who drop to #11 despite upping their odds to almost 15%. They're sitting just outside both polls and that lack of support will increasingly hurt them. They did catch a break with BYU's loss; if both teams had gone undefeated the Cougars would have been the team discussed as a possible Playoff-buster; now Marshall is the only non-Power Five team with a shot at going undefeated.

The Pac-12 is in chaos after this weekend. Utah re-enters the chart at #13, but their prior loss to Washington State weighs them down a bit. Arizona debuts at #17, just ahead of the Oregon team they upset, but the Wildcats aren't well-regarded by our power rating despite the big win. We see both the Utes and Wildcats having two losses, and Oregon perhaps three. After USC and Stanford both lost, that leaves UCLA the conference's main hope and they just took a big hit. There's still a lot of time but the Pac-12 is starting to look like the Big Ten in terms of Playoff futility.

The ACC isn't in much better shape. If Florida State loses it's probably all over for that conference, too, and we could see a Playoff with two SEC and two Big Twelve teams, or maybe Notre Dame in the mix. Clemson is the 2nd-ranked ACC team and they'd need FSU to lose twice to get to the conference championship. The Tigers still have a 5% chance to make the Playoff because they are looking more and more (26.7% now) like they'll win out and if the carnage continues, 2-loss teams will be in the mix. Mainly, though, they're at #14 because that's where they're expected to finish the season. Louisville re-enters at #23 after beating Syracuse 28-6 and Duke drops to #25 after an idle week, mostly from mixing in the influence of the unbiased Strength power rating. Georgia Tech is undefeated but still doesn't quite rate a mention here as their late schedule is a killer.

East Carolina, BYU, and Northern Illinois are the 2nd tier of non-Power Five teams. Each already has a loss and needs about 3 more weekends like the one we just had to improve their odds.

Georgia and Texas A&M both drop in the SEC pecking order. The Aggies lost while Georgia won, but the Bulldogs look like losers to 2 or 3 West teams in the SEC title game, even with full home field advantage given for playing in Atlanta. Wisconsin and Maryland dropped out of the chart along with USC.

BYU loses Taysom Hill, loses to Utah State, loses Playoff hopes

BYU took a triple hit Friday night—they lost to Utah State 35-20, and with QB Taysom Hill's season-ending injury the outlook for this year is hurt and probably kills their long-shot Playoff hopes.

Utah State came into the game with quarterback problems of their own as Chuckie Keeton had once again been lost for the year, a scenario we worried about in our preview of the Aggies. But as we noted there they have an experienced backup in Darrell Garretson, who completed 19 of 25 passes for 321 yards and 3 TDs.

With 2 minutes left in the 2nd half Hill was tackled while scrambling and broke his leg. Utah State was leading 21-14 at that point and BYU would score only 2 field goals for the rest of the game with Christian Stewart at the helm; he completed just 10 of 29 passes with 3 interceptions, making BYU's outlook for the remaining 7 games pretty grim.

BYU was expected to dominate this game, and our power ratings had the Cougars winning by 28 points. So they'll get a considerable downgrade, but it won't come close to capturing the change in the team without Hill. For now, they'll still be favored in every game going forward, but not by nearly as much. While an 11-1 finish is still possible due to their easy schedule, their College Football Playoff odds—last week 13.1%—are going to plummet. Our numbers will probably put their new hopes at around 2.0%, which again doesn't even account for the loss of Hill. If it could, the number would be close to 0%, and really, any non-Power Five team that already has a loss is fighting a very uphill battle even if they manage to win out.

Two undefeated teams bit the dust before the weekend, and at least three more will fall today. That will leave 12 or fewer teams in pole position for the inaugural Playoff.

Arizona 31, Oregon 24: How much did the Ducks blow their Playoff chances? And where are the Wildcats?

The biggest weekend of college football so far kicked off with a huge upset as Arizona beat Oregon in Eugene 31-24, flustering the Ducks for the 2nd consecutive year.

Oregon was on the short list of the most-probable College Football Playoff teams, ranking #2 and #3 in the polls and a near-consensus favorite to win the Pac-12. A lot changed with the loss—so how will it affect the Ducks on our College Football Playoff Odds chart?

Taking a look back at Oregon's season so far:

• Oregon was #9 on our pre-season Playoff Odds chart with an 11.6% chance to make the Playoff, due to the fact that we heavily favored UCLA to win the conference.
• They inched up to #8 at 14.2% with their opening win (62-13 over South Dakota)
• The 46-27 win over Michigan State popped the Ducks up to #2 at 56.4% as UCLA was faltering, making Oregon our Pac-12 favorite for the first time
• In week 3 Oregon peaked at 67.5% after beating Wyoming 48-14, but again it was the Bruins' weakness pumping up the Ducks' chances (UCLA beat Texas just 20-17 that weekend)
• Oregon showed their first sign of weakness with the 38-31 win over Washington State, and it showed up in their Playoff odds which dropped to 42.3% although they held the #3 position.
• Last week, UCLA's big win over Arizona State made the Bruins the Pac-12 favorite again, and that pushed Oregon out of the top four, dropping the Ducks to #6 at 26.2% odds.

So entering the Arizona game, Oregon was on the outside looking in but still one of the very top contenders and obviously controlled their own destiny as UCLA was concerned. That control of destiny hasn't disappeared, as Oregon still wins the Pac-12 North, and then the Pac-12 title, if they win out. But the team appears a lot weaker following the loss, so their odds of being able to do that appears to be diminished. In fact, current numbers suggest the Ducks have about a 1.3% chance of winning out.

Helping the Ducks is their earlier win over Michigan State, who is #10 in both polls. That should cushion Oregon's drop, holding them at #9. Though the Playoff Committee doesn't watch the polls, their opinions should align with them fairly well and the win over the Spartans gives the Ducks a better chance to be held in higher esteem and recover from the loss.

Still, we see the Ducks falling to around #20 on our Playoff Odds chart with around a 2.5% chance, mainly due to UCLA being a much bigger Pac-12 favorite now than before. Oregon still has to get past UCLA on the road, Stanford, Utah on the road, and Oregon State on the road, all of which were considered tougher challenges than Arizona at home.

And what about Arizona? Are they a top Playoff contender?

Short answer: Not yet. But they took a big step toward that.

Even at 4-0 Arizona was favored in just 3 of their last 8 games and had just a 0.3% chance of getting to the Playoff. The win over Oregon was huge but they're still expected to lose 3 of their last 7—to USC, UCLA, and Utah. The rest of this weekend's results might change that, but it won't change the fact that the Wildcats still have a tough road ahead.

But beating Oregon took away one of their biggest roadblocks, and should put them firmly in the AP and USA polls (where they were #29 last week, in the "others receiving votes" list). We expect them to be around #14 or #15 come Sunday.

On our Playoff Odds chart, Arizona will probably come in just ahead of Oregon at around 3.0% odds. The win moved them up a lot in our power rating's estimation, but not by enough to favor them in some of the big games remaining. Their odds of going 13-0 are just 0.3%. They control their own destiny, of course, but they still wouldn't be favored in a rematch against Oregon if both reached the Pac-12 championship game.

The Wildcats face USC next week in another big challenge. That game is at home and you can bet the stadium will be rocking; if Arizona can beat the Trojans then they'll be 6-0 and rated high in the polls and by our power ratings. At that point Arizona would be on the short list of Playoff teams—where Oregon was before Thursday's debacle.

Playoff Odds, week 5: UCLA, Alabama in; Oregon, Baylor out

Not much happened in week 5, but on our College Football Playoff Odds chart, two teams were replaced in the Top 4.

Florida State and Oklahoma held down the top two spots again, and remained the only teams firmly above 50% in odds to make the 4-team Playoff. UCLA's big 62-27 win over Arizona State convinced our power ratings that they should be the Pac-12 favorite again, and that pushed the Bruins to the #3 spot at just over 50% while dumping idle Oregon to #6. Alabama was idle, too, but took over the SEC favorite spot from Georgia which launched the Tide up to #4. Baylor's odds held steady at around 1 in 3 but the Bears were pushed to #5.

All of the top 6 teams face challenges in the coming weeks.

• Florida State has held the top spot all year but their odds to go 13-0 fell yet again, to 18%. The Seminoles keep winning but their odds to win out go down—that's not supposed to happen. After allowing 41 points to North Carolina State, FSU is down to #6 in our updated rankings, and it could get worse as we begin to transition to using our All-Division Strength power rating, where the 'Noles are only #27! Worse, they lose their #1 ranking in the USA poll, which could spell trouble when the CFP Committee's rankings come out. Next up is Wake Forest, then Syracuse, which shouldn't be difficult but any problems will reinforce that FSU is a shadow of last year's team. It's looking more and more like anything short of 13-0 will not get the Seminoles in the Playoff.
• Oklahoma and Baylor face a growing threat: TCU. Oklahoma faces the Horned Frogs on the road next week, then Baylor hosts TCU the following week. For the Sooners, it's a game that might be tougher than facing Baylor in Norman. Right now Oklahoma is a slight road favorite and Baylor—still our #1 power rated team—is a 12-point favorite in Waco. But the next two weeks can shake up the Big Twelve race and potentially add a third team into the mix. This week TCU leaps from #20 to #11 after shutting out SMU 56-0. Their schedule so far has been easy and they'll be thrown into the fire, but we can't rule out the possibility that they're for real.
• UCLA and Oregon face off in L.A. in two weeks, and that should resolve a lot of the flip-flopping that's been going on between the teams. They're also projected to meet for a rematch in the Pac-12 title game, and any one-sided result on October 11 could change that. In the week before, UCLA hosts a tough Utah team, while Oregon hosts Arizona this Thursday.
• Alabama got some help in their bye week from the coaches, who put the Tide #1 which suggests the ex-coach-heavy Committee might also smile upon them. But they have to take care of business, which next week includes traveling to Mississippi for a game in which we favor the Rebels by a hair (that's where the loss in Alabama's 11-1 straight-up projection comes from). Winning that game would really put the Tide in the driver's seat. This week it was Georgia's weakness that boosted Alabama to the #4 spot, a placing they might hold even with a close loss next week. Their cumulative projection of 2.4 losses shows how dangerous the SEC is.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff Odds chart, week 5 (9/28/2014)

Last week	This Week	Team	Playoff Odds %	% Change +/-	9/28 Rec	Projected Record				Odds to win out	Poll Ave
						Straight up		Cumulative
						W	L	W	L
1	1	Florida St	72.9	+1.7	4-0	12	0	10.7	1.3	18.3%	1.5
2	2	Oklahoma	60.5	+2.5	4-0	12	0	10.4	1.6	13.0%	3.5
5	3	UCLA	50.5	+26.4	4-0	12	0	10.6	1.4	11.0%	8.5
9	4	Alabama	41.1	+19.9	4-0	11	1	9.6	2.4	2.5%	2
4	5	Baylor	34.1	0.0	4-0	11	1	10.5	1.5	16.4%	6.5
3	6	Oregon	26.2	-16.1	4-0	11	1	10.1	1.9	3.8%	3
10	7	Marshall	13.8	-0.2	4-0	12	0	11.2	0.8	34.1%	30
11	8	Brigham Young	13.1	+0.4	4-0	12	0	11.1	0.9	38.2%	18.5
13	9	Auburn	8.7	+1.2	4-0	9	3	8.9	3.1	0.5%	5
14	10	Notre Dame	8.5	+1.2	4-0	10	2	9.0	3.0	1.3%	8.5
20	11	TCU	8.2	+6.3	3-0	10	2	9.2	2.8	1.6%	25
12	12	Mississippi	8.0	+0.4	4-0	11	1	9.2	2.8	1.2%	11
15	13	Michigan St	7.9	+0.9	3-1	10	2	9.2	2.8	7.0%	10
7	14	Georgia	6.4	-15.8	3-1	11	1	9.0	3.0	3.6%	12.5
6	15	Wisconsin	6.1	-17.6	3-1	11	1	9.0	3.0	3.3%	16.5
--	16	Maryland	6.0	+5.8	4-1	10	2	8.8	3.2	2.8%	38
16	17	Clemson	5.6	0.0	2-2	10	2	8.7	3.3	16.3%	28
8	18	Duke	5.2	-16.3	4-1	11	1	8.4	3.6	0.7%	36.5
17	19	Texas A&M	5.2	-0.2	5-0	10	2	9.3	2.7	1.0%	6.5
18	20	Northern Illinois	2.7	-0.1	3-1	11	1	9.4	2.6	10.6%	--
19	21	East Carolina	2.6	-0.1	3-1	11	1	9.6	2.4	17.4%	21.5
21	22	Nebraska	2.2	+0.4	5-0	10	2	9.3	2.7	0.6%	18
22	23	Ohio State	1.5	+0.3	3-1	9	3	9.0	3.0	3.7%	19
24	24	Mississippi St	1.1	+0.3	4-0	8	4	8.7	3.3	0.2%	13
25	25	Southern Cal	0.7	+0.3	3-1	10	2	8.5	3.5	1.3%	18

Dropped out: #23 Utah;  Others receiving "votes": Missouri (4-1), Stanford (3-1), LSU (4-1), Minnesota (4-1), Arizona (4-0), Oklahoma State (3-1), Colorado State (3-1), Louisville (2-1), Utah (3-1), Georgia Tech (4-0)

Marshall and BYU, the top hopes outside the Power Five, both slide up three spots but their own odds barely budged at 13 or 14%. Marshall isn't yet in either top 25, but BYU did well for a bye week in moving up two spots in both polls (to #18 and #19). Until these teams approach the top ten in the polls they're pretty much stuck where they are; this week some Power Five teams drop below them, but others will jump them in the following weeks unless the Herd and Cougars find poll support. Neither is close to showing as a top five team in our power ratings, though BYU may have that potential. Notre Dame is also independent but plays a Power Five schedule and they jump into the top 10 partly due to FSU's weakness; the odds of an Irish upset win in Tallahassee are growing (slowly) each week. They're still projected to lose 2 or 3 games at this point.

SEC West teams Auburn, Mississippi, and Mississippi State all rose slightly with wins this week, but Georgia's 45-42 escape vs. Tennessee is what shook up the conference. Of those teams only Auburn faces the Bulldogs in the regular season, but Georgia is projected to make the SEC title game (a notion that was confirmed by South Carolina's loss to Missouri) and could face the others there. The Bulldogs have at least partial home-field advantage for playing that game in Atlanta, but they're no longer favored to beat Alabama there if they face the Tide. Texas A&M is in the same boat as the other SEC West teams but the Aggies lost some ground by barely escaping Arkansas in overtime. They face Mississippi State next week.

The Big Ten's outlook is as bleak as ever this week after Wisconsin failed to impress against South Florida, winning just 27-10. That put Michigan State back as Big Ten favorite, and the Spartans are looking like an offensive juggernaut after blasting Wyoming worse than Oregon did. The Badgers dropped from #6 to #15, while the Spartans' bump was small since they face a growing regular-season threat from Maryland, the sole new entry on the chart at #16. Nebraska and Ohio State took care of business but with the Cornhuskers the conference's only undefeated team it's looking more and more like the Big Ten winner will have two losses and be well outside the top four.

The ACC isn't well-positioned to have a representative if FSU falters. Duke had the potential to squeak by several opponents and go 12-0, but Miami ruined that possibility. The Blue Devils are still narrow favorites in every game left but their odds of going 12-1—i.e. beating FSU—are just 0.7% and they fall from #8 last week to #18 this week. Clemson already has 2 losses and another one will drop them to 0% odds, but they're a favorite in every remaining game, with a 16% chance to achieve that. They'd also need FSU to lose twice in-conference to make the ACC title game, probably the harder part of their quest.

At #20 Northern Illinois and #21 East Carolina both have a loss, making them Group of Five longshots, but winning out might put them on the map. Their odds are fairly good, at 11% and 17% respectively, but they both have an uphill battle with their weak schedules in terms of recognition. The Pirates are in the polls, which could help if and when they move up, but the Huskies don't have a single vote and could be stuck at the bottom even if they win out.

With Utah's loss to Washington State, USC is the only Pac-12 team on the map other than UCLA and Oregon. The Trojans already have a loss but if they avoid another, they have late-season showdowns with UCLA and Notre Dame that could launch them into the discussion late. Until then don't expect too much change as we favor them in every game up to that point.

 

College Football Playoff Odds, week 4: FSU still on top, Oklahoma charges

Florida State had a terrible scare while Oklahoma emerged from a fight looking better than ever, and the Seminoles and Sooners are the top ranked teams on our College Football Playoff chart. They are the only major-conference teams expected to go undefeated and also the only two that are above 50% in Playoff odds.

Florida State probably should have lost to Clemson but pulled off an overtime victory, preventing them from becoming one of many teams on the outside looking in on the Playoff. Instead, the Committee can safely overlook the close call due to the circumstances and argue that a win's a win. And very importantly, FSU kept their top spot in the AP poll, showing that those who follow college football closely haven't demoted the Seminoles for the near-loss. But their odds to win out dip again, this time from 25% to 20%.

Oklahoma's 45-33 victory at West Virginia looks solid in comparison to Alabama's 33-23 neutral field triumph and now the Sooners are our favorite to win the Big Twelve. Baylor is still #1 in our power rating but the Bears might lose a close one in Norman; that's why they fall to #4 at 34% odds. Oregon had a close call of their own at Washington State, winning just 38-31; the Ducks hold their expected Playoff spot but their odds plunge to 42% as their odds of going unbeaten drop.

That still leaves two Big Twelve teams and no SEC teams in the top four like last week. But with only two teams above 50%, and seven more above 20%, there are no official favorites for the #3 and #4 spots. Within those seven teams are two SEC squads at #7 and #9, and four more litter the top 25. The conference's odds are spread out among those teams, adding up to around 65%.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff odds chart for week 4 (9/21/2014)

Last week	9/20 Rank	Team	Playoff Odds %	% Change +/-	9/20 Rec	Projected Record				Odds to win out	AP Rank
						Straight up		Cumulative
						W	L	W	L
1	1	Florida St	71.2	-8.0	3-0	12	0	10.8	1.2	20.5%	1
4	2	Oklahoma	58.0	+20.8	4-0	12	0	10.4	1.6	14.9%	4
2	3	Oregon	42.3	-25.2	4-0	11	1	10.1	1.9	5.3%	2
3	4	Baylor	34.1	-26.5	3-0	11	1	10.6	1.4	17.4%	7
10	5	UCLA	24.1	+13.8	3-0	12	0	9.5	2.5	2.3%	11
11	6	Wisconsin	23.7	+15.9	2-1	11	1	9.8	2.2	13.5%	19
22	7	Georgia	22.2	+20.6	2-1	11	1	9.3	2.7	7.3%	12
24	8	Duke	21.4	+20.7	4-0	12	0	9.2	2.8	0.6%	26
6	9	Alabama	21.1	+2.5	4-0	11	1	9.6	2.4	2.2%	3
8	10	Marshall	14.0	-0.5	4-0	12	0	11.3	0.7	34.1%	30
7	11	Brigham Young	12.7	-2.8	4-0	12	0	11.0	1.0	31.1%	20
17	12	Mississippi	7.6	+3.7	3-0	11	1	9.1	2.9	0.8%	10
9	13	Auburn	7.5	-5.9	3-0	9	3	9.0	3.0	0.6%	5
13	14	Notre Dame	7.3	-0.2	3-0	10	2	8.6	3.4	0.6%	8
5	15	Michigan St	7.0	-18.1	2-1	11	1	8.9	3.1	3.6%	9
14	16	Clemson	5.6	-1.1	1-2	10	2	8.6	3.4	15.0%	28
16	17	Texas A&M	5.4	+1.4	4-0	10	2	9.4	2.6	1.2%	6
15	18	Northern Illinois	2.7	-1.6	3-1	11	1	9.6	2.4	12.5%	--
--	19	East Carolina	2.7	+2.6	3-1	11	1	9.6	2.4	19.4%	23
19	20	TCU	1.9	-0.4	2-0	9	3	8.6	3.4	0.5%	29
18	21	Nebraska	1.8	-0.9	4-0	10	2	9.2	2.8	0.4%	21
12	22	Ohio State	1.2	-6.5	2-1	10	2	8.8	3.2	2.9%	22
25	23	Utah	1.0	+0.6	3-0	9	3	8.5	3.5	0.3%	31
--	24	Mississippi St	0.8	+0.5	4-0	8	4	8.7	3.3	0.1%	14
--	25	Southern Cal	0.4	-0.1	2-1	9	3	8.0	4.0	0.7%	18

Dropped out: #20 Missouri, #21 LSU, #23 Pittsburgh

Others receiving "votes": Indiana (2-1), Oklahoma State (2-1), Penn State (4-0), Arizona (4-0)

Georgia's 66-0 beatdown of Troy coupled with Auburn's tepid 20-14 win at Kansas State made the Bulldogs again the favorite to win the SEC, bumping the Dawgs back up to #7 and knocking the Tigers down to #13. Alabama gained from their win over Florida but other interlopers jumped them, dumping the Tide to #9. The SEC race will continue to be the most volatile as the conference has so many good teams within a hair's breadth of each other in quality.

Oregon's weakness allowed idle UCLA to regain much of its lost ground; the Bruins are now favored to beat Oregon in Los Angeles but lose to the Ducks in the Pac-12 title game. Wisconsin improved its odds by winning big—68-17 big—over Bowling Green, solidifying the Badgers' chances to run the table the rest of the way and win the Big Ten. This in turn knocked Michigan State from #5 to #15, and Ohio State down from #12 to #22. The Spartans' 73-14 win over Eastern Michigan wasn't enough to keep them the Big Ten favorite, but it was enough to keep them the East favorite over the Buckeyes.

The biggest mover was Duke who jumped from #24 to #8 after beating Tulane 47-13. In and of itself that didn't say much, but the Blue Devils now look like the Coastal Division favorite in the ACC and could win out prior to a meeting with Florida State. Their odds of going 13-0 are tiny (0.6%) but they're narrowly favored to start 12-0 now. ex-#23 Pittsburgh's loss to Iowa opened the door for Duke.

All of this upward activity from Power Five conference members knocked Marshall and BYU down a few rungs, with the Herd ahead at #10 now. BYU's 41-33 home win over Virginia was good but not "potentially top 4 in the nation" good, as they moved up only one spot in the top 25 to #20. Marshall is just outside the AP top 25 after beating Akron 48-17. The polls are the only hope for these teams to rise into the top 4 here; if they go undefeated without poll support (i.e., consensus opinion that they are top teams) then they will hover around #10 the rest of the year.

Clemson wasn't supposed to beat FSU so they don't fall much; they're still favored to go 10-2 but at 1-2 there's no margin for error and an 8- or 9-win season is more likely. Northern Illinois, likewise, wasn't supposed to beat Arkansas but their 52-17 loss was worse than we figured, and that drops their odds of finishing 12-1 significantly. On the other hand Utah was supposed to beat Michigan, and their 26-10 win was stronger than expected. It still only translates into a small bump from #25 to #23 as the pollsters predictably attributed it to the Wolverines' weakness not the Utes' strength.

Mississippi State upset LSU which puts the Bulldogs on the map and kicks the Tigers out. In the end the Tigers almost came back to win so it wasn't the "statement" that it looked like when the score was 34-10, but LSU's weakness helped Mississippi move up along with Texas A&M. Missouri's loss to Indiana made beating the Tigers look easier too, which also helps the Aggies.

East Carolina scored 70 points on North Carolina and now look like they could go 11-1 in the American Athletic Conference; our odds show nearly a 20% chance of doing so. That won't be enough to get them near Playoff consideration but if the polls give them support—they debut at #23 in the AP—the Pirates could move from a very long shot to just a typical long shot. Their schedule softens significantly from here, which makes winning out easier but makes winning Committee hearts and minds unlikely.

One weekend left: BCS title odds for FSU, Ohio State, Auburn, Missouri, and Alabama

One weekend left—with three key games—and five teams have a shot at getting in the national title game.

Based on this week's BCS standings, those teams are Florida State, Ohio State, Auburn, Missouri, and Alabama.

The two big questions are:

• Can Auburn get into the title game if FSU and Ohio State both win?
  
  Answer: It's very doubtful.

Despite the talking heads making a case for Auburn, it looks like the voters are going with Ohio State. And despite some computer ratings—including our own Success ratings, a BCS-style ranking—putting the Tigers in front of the Buckeyes, it appears that the BCS computers are generally picking Ohio State as well. Since both teams play 11-1 opponents next week, it doesn't appear that there will be a major shift toward Auburn.

It's possible that another nail-biting win by Ohio State coupled with a dominant Auburn victory could shift sentiment, but a win over Missouri just won't carry the weight of a win over Alabama. If a big shift toward Auburn didn't happen this weekend it's just not going to.

• Does Alabama still have a chance to get into the title game?
  
  Answer: Yes, but very slim. See below

So we discount any possibility of Auburn passing Ohio State, and with Alabama the #5 team we're assuming they move up to fill any voids by losing teams. Here are our percentages for each team, in order of likelihood:

1. Florida State (95.2% chance to play in BCS championship game)
   vs.
   Duke:      95.2% chance to win
   
   Florida State is #1 in the BCS rankings and a lock if they beat Duke, which is statistically significant certitude in the eyes of our power rating. 19 of 20 times they should beat the Blue Devils on a neutral field. The downside of playing Duke? If they lose, there's no way they'll be in the BCS championship, nor will they be in the Orange Bowl. They'd still get a BCS bowl as an at-large pick, most likely.
   
   
2. Ohio State (67.9% chance to play in BCS championship game)
   vs.
   Michigan State :   67.9% chance to win
   
   The #2 Buckeyes have one of their toughest tests of the year in the Spartans, who have one of the nation's top defenses. Their rushing defense is #2 in the nation (corrected for opposition) while Ohio State's rushing offense is #1. The Spartan rushing defense is Michigan State's offense isn't nearly the equal of their defense, however. If Ohio State wins all indications are that they will finish #2 in the BCS, barring a major shift of pollsters for some reason. If they lose they have no chance at the title game but they, too, would get a BCS at-large bid however.
   
   
3. Missouri (20.5% chance to play in BCS championship game)
   vs.
   Auburn:    57.9% chance to win
   x odds of FSU loss OR OSU loss: 35.4%
   
   Despite being #5 in the BCS rankings, these Tigers are favored by our power rating to win the SEC. And if they do, they still need help in the form of an Ohio State loss, or a Florida State loss. The odds of that are 35.4%, yielding the final odds of about 1 in 5.
   
   
4. Auburn (14.9% chance to play in BCS championship game)
   vs.
   Missouri:    42.1% chance to win
   x odds of FSU loss OR OSU loss: 35.4%
   
   #3 Auburn needs to beat Missouri to have a hope of making the BCS title game, that's not in dispute. And if they do win, we believe they'll need a loss by FSU or OSU. Without that, they might come very close but just miss out. Two years of undefeated football by Ohio State would carry the day over a 1-loss Auburn, and rightly so. The real question is: if Auburn loses, do they get an at-large bid ahead of Alabama? That's the real question up for debate.
   
   
5. Alabama (1.5% chance to play in BCS championship game)
   (no game)
   Odds of FSU loss AND OSU loss: 1.5%
   
   Here's where things get crazy. If BOTH Florida State and Ohio State lose, what happens? As we note above, neither Florida State nor Ohio State looks very good if they lose. FSU would have a loss to Duke that would probably disqualify them in voters' eyes. And Ohio State is precarious even as an undefeated team. So it would be the SEC champion, plus one other team.
   
   That would almost certainly be BCS #5 Alabama. If Auburn beats Missouri, a rematch vs. Alabama would be fairly popular given the Iron Bowl finish. And the Tide should finish #2 anyway, regardless of who wins, under the circumstances.
   
   Let's face it: #6 Oklahoma State isn't going to jump Alabama for beating Oklahoma, and they have a loss to a losing team. #7 Stanford and #8 South Carolina both have 2 losses; they won't even move ahead of a 1-loss Florida State. #9 Baylor has a loss to Oklahoma State; like the Cowboys, they are hoping for a Fiesta Bowl bid, or maybe an at-large. #10 Michigan State would get a boost from beating Ohio State, but they have the same schedule drawback that has Ohio State needing a perfect season to finish #2; the Spartans are playing to get in the Rose Bowl.
   
   It really looks like another all-SEC final if both FSU and OSU choke. Just that fact that an all-SEC final is possible should be enough evidence that the conference is being fairly rated by the BCS system. There's no need to go putting a 1-loss SEC team in front of an undefeated Ohio State team.

That adds up to 200%, for two teams in the BCS championship game.

Thus, in the final year of the BCS, there could be a matchup of two undefeated, major-conference foes, yet still be much controversy. The four-team lineup for next year is looking surprisingly good for this season's layout: pit the undefeated teams against Alabama and the SEC winner. But no matter the format, people will find things to argue about and will criticize the system. It's college football, after all.

2012-2013 BCS Bowl Predictor widget: Test every BCS bowl scenario & projection

So who is going to be in which BCS bowl game? This year is a lot more straightforward than last year, though the chance of Kent State becoming an automatic qualifier is very real and could shake things up.

There are eight games that could reasonably affect the BCS Bowl lineup. This simple tool should show what will happen under all outcomes of those eight games. Just click on the team on the left hand side that you think might win this weekend and the results are generated automatically.

There are a few grey areas, of course, and sometimes "style points", i.e. margin of victory, can influence the human pollsters enough that things can't be encapsulated by winner/loser, but for the most part this should tell you what will happen. And as always, the selection committee for a given bowl may offer up a surprise.

Welcome to the 2012-2013 version of the BCS Bowl Predictor!

Here's our rundown of each team's chances (listed by current BCS standings, with updates highlighted):

1. Notre Dame: They're in, and they're in the Big One. Pretty simple.
2. Alabama: Beat Georgia in the SEC final and they're in the Big One, too. Lose and they probably don't get any BCS bowl. At 10-2 they'll fall below #4 Florida, who will be the 2nd SEC team selected. Update: They won, they're in.
3. Georgia: Like Alabama, win and they're in the BCS Championship, lose and they're out of BCS bowl luck, for the same reason as Alabama: #4 Florida will be the #2 SEC team. Update: With the loss, Georgia is out of the BCS. Had they remained well ahead of Florida in the polls they might have had a shot, but they fell a few spots below in the coaches poll.
4. Florida: The Gators can't get in the BCS Championship game but they're essentially a lock for the Sugar Bowl. Only a really bizarre occurence (perhaps Alabama losing by a point in triple overtime, on a really bad call so that the pollsters keep the Tide at #2 in the polls? It's hard to think of a scenario) can keep Florida out of the #3 spot and a guaranteed bid. Their opponent could be any of Oklahoma, Clemson, Rutgers, or Louisville depending on other results, with Kansas State and Texas having an outside chance to land here. Update: Florida will probably play Oklahoma in the Sugar.
5. Oregon: The Ducks are basically locked into the Fiesta Bowl, as the consensus is they're a lock to be chosen to face the Big Twelve winner. Update: Pretty much a done deal, we'd guess.
6. Kansas State: The Wildcats aren't quite in Alabama and Georgia's shoes; that is, they don't need to win to make the Fiesta Bowl and if they aren't in it, they have a glimmer of hope to get the Sugar Bowl. The sure part is, if they beat Texas they're in the Fiesta Bowl. And even if they lose to Texas, an Oklahoma loss still puts them in the Fiesta Bowl. The question is, if they lose and Oklahoma wins, can K-State get the Sugar Bowl bid? It probably goes to Clemson, just like Virginia Tech got the bid last year. But you never know. Remember that if Kent State gets into the mix, the Sugar Bowl is closed off anyway. Update: Kansas State took care of any doubts by beating Texas, so they're in the Fiesta Bowl.
7. LSU: The Tigers really don't have any chance of making a BCS bowl since three SEC teams are ahead of them, and two will get a guaranteed bid.
8. Stanford: Stanford has to beat UCLA for the 2nd week in a row to clinch a Rose Bowl berth. Lose and they're out of luck; they won't be an at-large team since Oregon will be taken, closing out the Pac-12 possibilities. Update: with their 2nd straight win over UCLA, the Cardinal are in the Rose Bowl.
9. Texas A&M: See LSU.
10. South Carolina: See LSU.
11. Oklahoma: The Sooners need to beat TCU and have Texas beat Kansas State; that will put them in the Fiesta Bowl. If Kansas State beats Texas, Oklahoma should get the Sugar Bowl bid opposite Florida. However, if Kent State becomes an automatic qualifier, the Sugar Bowl bid disappears. So Oklahoma fans should root for Northern Illinois to win on Friday, and if Kent State wins a UCLA upset of Stanford ought to keep the Golden Flashes out of the mix. If not, then Texas upsetting Kansas State should do the trick, but if that happens the Sooners will have their eyes on the Fiesta Bowl anyway. Update: Beating TCU, along with Kansas State's win over Texas, almost certainly sends Oklahoma to the Sugar Bowl. There's still a small threat from Northern Illinois making the top 16, but it's not likely. UPDATE: Now some sources are saying it's going to happen. Cross your fingers, Sooners fans.
12. Nebraska: The Cornhuskers go to the Rose Bowl with a win over Wisconsin. With a loss, they probably don't stay in the top 14 to get an at-large bid. Clemson fans should root for Wisconsin. Update: Nebraska was crushed and won't go to the Rose Bowl.
13. Florida State: Beat Georgia Tech and they're in the Orange Bowl. Lose and they're out of the top 14, and out of the running. Update: Seminoles won, headed for the Orange Bowl.
14. Clemson: The Tigers have to wait for other teams to lose, and hope things don't work out to jostle them out of at-large territory (the top 14). Their best shot at a BCS bowl is to get a bid to the Sugar Bowl, which should happen if Oklahoma loses. If Oklahoma wins and Kansas State loses, Kansas State becomes a rival at-large team for the position but last year Virginia Tech was taken over the Wildcats and history would probably repeat. If UCLA upsets Stanford the Bruins could jump from #16 to knock them to #15, but their lead is fairly large. Good results for Clemson would be a Nebraska loss, and especially, a loss by #13 Florida State, both of which could give the Tigers some insurance to stay in the top 14. A very bad result for Clemson would be Kent State getting in the BCS mix, which closes down the Sugar Bowl pipeline. Update: The Big Twelve didn't do Clemson any favors, so it's unlikely they'll be the Sugar Bowl choice.
15. Oregon State: The Beavers are in a position like the SEC teams, with too many conference-mates ahead of them, and additionally they're not in at-large territory. Doesn't matter if they get there, either.
16. UCLA: The Bruins must beat Stanford. Then they're in the Rose Bowl. Update: UCLA lost and won't be in a BCS bowl.
17. Kent State: Somehow the Flashes have put themselves in line to be a true BCS buster. They need to get just one more spot and beating Northern Illinois might do it, but it's likely they need help. UCLA has to lose to Stanford, which is expected. Also, Texas can't upset Kansas State. That's not expected. So basically, Kent State should be in good shape if they beat NIU to win the MAC. UCLA loses and they move in at #16, and stay ahead of Texas and both Louisville and Rutgers, and go to the Orange Bowl. It's got a very good shot of happening. Update: Close, but no cigar. The Flashes lost in overtime; they'll go to a bowl game, but not a BCS bowl.
18. Texas: The Longhorns are a BCS longshot, as they need to get into the top 14. They're a big draw so if they manage that they'll probably be in the Sugar Bowl. But it's unlikely to happen, even if they beat Kansas State. They won't likely pass #14 Clemson or even #15 Oregon State, so their chances rest on losses by both FSU and Nebraska, and getting picked ahead of Clemson. Here an Oklahoma win puts the Sooners in the Fiesta Bowl; an Oklahoma loss keeps the Sooners in the at-large bin along with Texas whom they beat 65-21. In the latter case, we see the Sugar choosing Clemson to avoid the hassle. Update: The Longhorns lost, making any other speculation moot.
19. Michigan: No chance here.
20. Boise State: The Broncos have one more game, and got a huge gift from the coaches and Harris polls which lofted them to #15 and #17 respectively, but their computer ranking is still stuck at #30 and there's no way they'll make the top 16. Update: The Broncos beat Nevada but remained at #15 in the coaches poll, and probably won't be higher than #25 in the computer composite. That won't put them in the top 16, and Northern Illinois probably passes them.
21. Nothern Illinois: Kent State is the MAC team with the BCS shot. The Huskies can pass Boise State and Kent State to become the top non-AQ conference winner, but getting into the top 16 will be tough. A loss by UCLA to Stanford—who already beat them—isn't going to drop the Bruins in the polls much, so they'll probably remain ahead of NIU even if everyone else clears out. If they do somehow make it, they'll take the Orange Bowl slot of course. Update: The Huskies won in overtime over Kent State to keep their tiny chances alive for a BCS bowl, but it still doesn't look like a realistic possibility. If Texas loses, and Florida State, Nebraska, and Oklahoma all lose by blowout losses, some of them might fall far enough to make things interesting. But even #16 UCLA is likely to remain ahead of the Huskies since they lost by such a small margin to a top-ten team they had to play twice. Update 2: Nebraska's loss was damaging enough that it could drop the Cornhuskers quite a ways in the BCS standings. UCLA also fell a few spots despite playing Stanford closer than the previous game. Northern Illinois is #16 in the coaches poll, and will be close to that in the Harris poll. The Huskies will get very close to making the BCS, but it looks like they'll probably finish #17. UPDATE: Rumors are rampant that NIU has squeeked past Nebraska. If so, NIU can thank Wisconsin for the beatdown they put on the Cornhuskers for edging past them. And/or the voters for knocking UCLA down a few spots for losing by 3 to a team they'd already played.
    

Louisville and Rutgers aren't ranked in the top 25 of the BCS, but the winner [update: Louisville won 20-17] of their head-to-head clash will be either in the Orange or Sugar. A Rutgers win and the Scarlett Knights win the Big East outright; a Louisville win and the Cardinals are part of either a 4-team or 3-team tie at the top, depending on whether Cincinnati wins Saturday. It doesn't matter in the end, as Louisville would win tiebreakers in both scenarios. And since they won on Thursday night, the Cardinals are headed to a BCS bowl.