2011 Pre-Season Rankings: #60 Washington State Cougars

SportsRatings 2011 College Football Pre-season Top 120

WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS   (PAC-12 #11; North #6)

#60	2010 Results	Record: 2-10	Strength:#66  Success:#99  Overall:#68
		AP, USA unranked	Bowl: None
	2011 Outlook	Record: 5-7	Picks: Lindy's #83; Athlon #85; Steele #79
		AP n/a, USA NR	Bowl: None (eligibility odds: 24%)

The Cougars could have as many wins this season as in the last three combined.

Offense 7 RS	'10 Scoring Offense: #106 (raw) #71 (adjusted)
	'11 Projected Scoring Offense: #67

A strong WSU passing game offsets their very poor ground game.

Passing Game	'10 Passing Rank: #42 (raw) #29 (adjusted)	'10 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #118
	'11 Projected Passing Rank: #20	'11 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #110

Jeff Tuel wasn't the best QB in college football but for this team, he was pretty good. He completed 60% of his passes, threw for 2,780 yards, and had more touchdowns (18) than interceptions (12). Marshall Lobbestael didn't see much action though he did in 2009 making him a decent enough backup. Key receivers Marquess Wilson (1,006 yards as a freshman) and Jared Karstetter (658) are back, and while they lose the next two (692 combined yards), Isaiah Barton (165) and Gino Simone (330 in '09) return. The quarterback protection was awful again last year (51 sacks) but should finally see some real improvement (don't expect miracles). Look for Washington State to have a top 25 passing attack in 2011, at least in adjusted numbers that consider their opponents' pass defense.

Rushing

'10 Rushing Rank: #116 (raw) #98 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #96

When your top rusher gains 478 yards, and he's gone this year, there's not much left to say. James Montgomery also scored 5 touchdowns, while Logwone Mitz had 4 TDs to go with his 263 yards. The next in line was QB Tuel with 204 net despite about 250 sack yards. The offensive line, poor for years, might be about to get over the hump. Despite losing starters Micah Hannam and Zack Williams they have solid experience at every position, with two senior starters back (Wade Jacobson and B.J. Guerra), two half-time starters back (David Gonzales and John Fullington), and Andrew Roxas who started most of 2008. Redshirt freshman Rickey Galvin will push Mitz, and there may be some improvement in the rock-bottom raw numbers.

Defense 6 RS	'10 Scoring Defense: #111 (raw) #66 (adjusted)	'10 sacks: #24	'10 picks: #73
	'11 Projected Scoring Defense: #60	'11 sacks: #19	'11 picks: #66
'10 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #107    Pass Defense  per-game: #38   Per-attempt: #80

Washington State's defense faced the best offenses in the country in the Pac-10 last year, so their seemingly awful defense was really around average for the FBS. But their rush defense was bad and, on a per-attempt basis, so was their pass defense. This year the defensive line has two starters back, Travis Long (5 sacks) and Brandon Rankin, and behind them are Alex Hoffman-Ellis and C.J. Mizell who started the last half of the season. The secondary is loaded, with Nolan Washington and Tyree Toomer returning, as well as two who started the majority, Daniel Simmons and Deone Buchanon, the team's #1 tackler last year. Backup Aire Justin failed a drug test and was dismissed, while linebacker Louis Blake is out for the 2nd straight year, but overall the defense should be better. And once again they'll look bad facing the country's best offenses.

Kicking Game:  Punter Reid Forrest got a lot of practice, punting 66 times for an excellent 45.4 yard average. He departs along with kicker Nico Grasu (4 of 6 field goals). Andrew Furney was 3 of 5 on field goals and should take over full time there, while senior walk-on Dan Wagner will be the punter.
Return Game:  Isaih Barton handled most kickoffs and averaged 22.1 yards, while Aire Justin had just a 4.8 yard average on punts. Aforementioned freshman Ricky Galvin will get a shot at the punt return job.

Coaching/Recruiting      2011 Recruiting Rank: #62
Paul Wulff really inherited a thankless task in coaching the Cougars, who have been the worse team in BCS-league football for three years running (taking over for Syracuse before them). His recruiting hasn't been great, but it's been enough to lift them up enough that fans can see some light at the end of the tunnel. This year's class is about in the middle of the Pac-12, though still in the lower half. They've had offensive line issues for years and some of their best recruits this year are linemen.

2010 Recap  More of the same. The Cougars finished with just two wins in 2010, one of them over FCS's Montana State (by just a point). They didn't suffer the same degree of blowout that they did in 2008, but still lost eight in a row before beating Oregon State 31-14 for their first Pac-10 win since beating Washington three seasons ago.

Washington St. 2011 schedule & forecast
9/3	Sat	vs.	Idaho State	99%	W
9/10	Sat	vs.	UNLV	92%	W
9/17	Sat	@	San Diego State	36%	L
10/1	Sat	@	*Colorado	49%	L
10/8	Sat	@	*UCLA	26%	L
10/15	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	7%	L
10/22	Sat	vs.	*Oregon State	33%	L
10/29	Sat	@	*Oregon	2%	L
11/5	Sat	@	*California	14%	L
11/12	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	32%	L
11/19	Sat	vs.	*Utah	42%	L
11/26	Sat	@	*Washington	27%	L
Straight up: 2-10  Cume: 5-7  Bowl eligible: 24%

 

2011 Outlook  The Cougars should kick off the year with two easy wins, and with a little luck could be 3-1, or even 4-0 on October 1st. After that things get hairy, and that could be all the wins they see, but they're virtually guaranteed to at least match their best effort of the last three years. According to the cumulative odds, they have a 95% chance to exceed 2 wins, which would be their best year since 2007.

The cumulative odds give the Cougars four or five wins (it's right on the cusp), and about a 1 in 4 chance of going to a bowl game. Within the 10 games in which they'll be underdogs there are a few close calls—Colorado and Utah—but to get the fifth win they'll need an honest-to-goodness upset...like the one they got against Oregon State last year.