Friday December 24: Hawai'i Bowl in Honolulu, HI at 8:00 pm eastern
#22 Hawaii Warriors (10-3) vs. #24 Tulsa Golden Hurricane (9-3)
Two surprisingly good teams line up at Hawaii's home field for an offensive showdown.
Vegas line/spread: Hawaii by 10 1/2 (over/under 73).
Hawaii is a heavy favorite to win a high-scoring game according to the oddsmakers.
Game-comparison win % vs. spread
Hawaii 77.0% 57%
Tulsa 23.0 % 43%
Hawaii is actually a legit top 25 team according to the Strength Power Rating, which puts them at #25. Tulsa, on the other hand, is only #58. Accordingly, the vast majority of game-comparisons are won by the Warriors. Against the spread, Hawaii still wins the majority. Both these formulas grant the Warriors the standard home field advantage.
Strength Power Rating: Hawaii 43, Tulsa 29
Both teams have great offenses and not-as-great defenses. Using raw scoring figures, Hawaii and Tulsa both have top 10 offenses, #9 and #10 in the nation in scoring average. Once corrected for their level of opposition—mostly from the WAC and C-USA respectively—they fall to #16 and #28. Still very good, but not among the best.
On defense Hawaii is a respectable #47 while Tulsa ranks #89, and that's the big difference here. Add in home field advantage for the Warriors and it's a two touchdown spread, and lots of scoring predicted.
Yardage analysis: Hawaii 51, Tulsa 35 per attempt: Hawaii 45, Tulsa 27
In yardage differential—whether teams outgain their opponents or not—Hawaii ranks 16th and Tulsa 57th, very similar to their rankings by score margin. Both rank high in total offense (Hawaii 12th, Tulsa 13th) but again rank a lot worse on defense (47th, 110th). The outcome—the estimated score based on yardage—is about the same as the Strength Power Rating's estimate, with more points scored because the offenses rank a bit higher. The per-attempt projection is even a bit closer to the power ratings' tally.
The per-game yardage projection (first score set above) predicts nearly 1,000 yards of total offense between the two teams, roughly 550 by Hawaii and 450 by Tulsa.
Yardage + turnovers projection: Hawaii 53, Tulsa 33
Normally Tulsa gets a small boost due to turnovers as they rank #25 in turnover margin, but Hawaii ranks #5 in the nation (adjusted). So the odds are Hawaii comes out a bit ahead in turnovers (about 3 to 2), giving them around another 4 point advantage to add to their projected margin.
When Hawaii has the ball
Hawaii rushing offense: #112 Tulsa rushing defense: #73
Hawaii is not a running team, that much is clear. Greg McMackin has carried on June Jones legacy by keeping the offense almost completely pass-based. Despite this, Hawaii has a 1,000 yard rusher in Alex Green, who also has 17 touchdowns. That accounts for almost all their net ground yardage and it was over 13 games, but he averages a guady 8.8 yards per carry. Indeed, the Warriors are 39th in adjusted per-carry rushing offense. But there's a lot of the "surprise factor" involved here since they pass so much. Indeed, the Warriors have run fewer running plays than any other I-A team, and that alone is enough to hold them to about 100 ground yards for the game. Against Tulsa's mediocre defense, though, more could be available if they need a break from the pass.
Hawaii passing offense: #1 Tulsa passing defense: #119 per att: #116
Hawaii interceptions thrown ranking: #59 Tulsa interceptions picked ranking: #15
Hawaii quarterback protection rank: #97 Tulsa pass rush rank: #47
But the pass is Hawaii's bread, butter, and serving China. They finished #1 in adjusted and raw passing yards per game, with Bryant Moniz throwing for 4,629 yards and 36 TDs. Receivers Greg Salas and Kealoha Pilares both topped 1,000 yards and had 27 of the TDs. This is bad news for Tulsa, who has one of the worst passing defenses in the nation. Expect about 450 passing yards from Hawaii.
Tulsa's best bet is to try to intercept Moniz; he has 11 on the year, which is about average given Hawaii's competition (but very good for someone who throws so often). Tulsa gets a lot of picks—most from Dexter McCoil and Marco Nelson, who have 6 each—and the numbers say they'll get 1.3 in this game, so one, maybe two. They'll need more if they want to stop the Warrior air attack. The Hurricane pass rush is good enough to pressure Moniz, too, but again the Warriors' low ranking is more indicative of how often they pass. Moniz has been sacked 30 times in 508 attempts, which is 5.9%—a bit high, but not terrible. Expect about three sacks from the Golden Hurricane, probably not nearly enough to turn the tide in a #1 vs. #119 contest.
When Tulsa has the ball
Tulsa rushing offense: #24 Hawaii rushing defense: #43
Tulsa's offense is far more balanced than Hawaii's in terms of run vs. pass, but when you consider that quarterback G.J. Kinne is their leading rusher, it's even more dependent on one person. Kinne has 557 rushing yards, but three backs have over 300 and five more have 100+, so they spread the ball around with the result being a top-25 level rushing attack. Hawaii's rushing defense is sound and the yardage analyzer expects about 175 yards from Tulsa all together. The question is how to optimally play the pass vs. the rush to keep Hawaii's defense guessing.
Tulsa passing offense: #18 Hawaii passing defense: #57 per att: #44
Tulsa interceptions thrown ranking: #65 Hawaii interceptions picked ranking: #1
Tulsa quarterback protection rank: #83 Hawaii pass rush rank: #41
Kinne is a solid passer, completing 60% for 3,307 yards and 28 touchdowns, and passing-wise the Golden Hurricane are also of top 25 quality. Hawaii's own pass defense is middling to fairly good, so expect around 275 yards of passing offense from Tulsa.
The Warriors have some opportunity to stop them, however. Hawaii is the #1 team in the nation in interceptions, averaging an adjusted 1.8 per game, so expect them to get a couple in this game; if they get more than that it could be a rout. Hawaii also puts good pressure on quarterbacks, though Kinne can run so it's not easy to get to him. Though he's been sacked 24 times that's in 429 attempts, so the #83 ranking—like Hawaii's #97 QB protection rating—is skewed. Still, expect up to 3 sacks under normal conditions.
Hawaii's season
Wins over bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins over top 25 teams (1)
Losses (3) vs. losing team (1)
- USC 36-49
- @ Army 31-28
- @ Colorado 13-31
- Charleston Southern 66-7
- Louisiana Tech 41-21
- @ Fresno State 49-27
- #9 Nevada 27-21
- @ Utah State 45-7
- Idaho 45-10
- @ #10 Boise State 7-42
- San Jose State 41-7
- @ New Mexico State 59-24
- UNLV 59-21
The Warriors showed their first spark of potential against USC where their offense performed well. But the tepid win over Army and bad loss to Colorado left them a shaky 1-2 and they appeared likely to repeat a losing season.
But Hawaii came to life over the next several games, surprising Fresno on the road and then shocking Nevada in Honolulu for their signature win this season. They blew away Utah State and Idaho, and—after a best-forgotten trip to Boise—picked up and destroyed three more opponents. Only three times did they fail to score 30 points.
Tulsa's season
Wins over bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins over top 25 teams (1)
Losses (3) vs. losing teams (0)
- @ East Carolina 49-51
- Bowling Green 33-20
- @ #14 Oklahoma State 28-65
- Central Arkansas 41-14
- @ Memphis 48-7
- @ SMU 18-21
- Tulane 52-24
- @ Notre Dame 28-27
- Rice 64-27
- @ Houston 28-25
- UTEP 31-28
- Southern Miss 56-50
Like Hawaii, Tulsa started off 1-2, with a shaky win in-between two losses. East Carolina beat them on a last-second pass, and Oklahoma State devoured them. Like Hawaii, they got their bearings with a win over a I-AA foe and after that the wins came with regularity. After a loss to SMU put the Golden Hurricane at 3-3 they won six straight.
The high point of the season was certainly their own last-second win over Notre Dame, where the defense came up with an interception. But the last three games were all noteworthy close wins: they beat league favorite Houston on the road, then beat bowl-eligible UTEP and Southern Miss to finish out a year at 9-3 that could have easily been anywhere from 11-1 down to 5-7.
Key Injuries
Both teams should be basically healthy by the 24th.
Psychology: Hawaii +6 Tulsa +8
- Hawaii's season: +4 wins; Tulsa's season: +4 wins
- Hawaii's momentum: +1; Tulsa's momentum: +3
- Hawaii glad to be there? +0; Tulsa glad to be there: +0
- Hawaii won final game: +1; Tulsa won final game: +1
- Hawaii coaching situation: +0; Tulsa coaching situation: +0
These two teams are in about the same situation: losing record and no bowl last year; 1-2 start; wining 8 of their last 9 games. Neither team should have a big emotional edge.
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Final analysis
All of the numbers say Hawaii is going to win fairly big, and I'm finding it hard to disagree. The oddsmakers have it a bit lower, which is enough to think it could be closer, but a few things stand out to me.
One, with all the projections showing Hawaii winning, the Warriors' true home field advantage isn't even factored in. Hawaii always plays a lot better at home, even moreso than the standard points spotted to a home team (around 3). Sometimes Hawaii has been at least 10 points better at home, but this year it looks like they have roughly 3.5 extra home points that should be given to them. Part of this is that opponents might play worse there due to travel time and time zone considerations (Tulsa will be 4 time zones out of synch), not to mention the "vacation" atmosphere.
Two, the matchup of Hawaii's passing game vs. Tulsa's pass defense just doesn't look good. Tulsa beat a lot of bad passing teams and lost to the #23, #11, and #2 passing teams as the latter scored 65 points on them. They beat #8 Houston, though the Cougars were down to their 4th string true freshman quarterback that they intercepted five times.
The SMU game is what Tulsa's defense needs to replicate if they want to have a chance. Against June Jones' current team they gave up only 21 points in the loss, while still allowing 381 passing yards. They're a decent 34th in red zone defense, so coupling defensive stands with interceptions is their only chance. They're 91st against 3rd downs, though. In short, there is some hope but not a lot. And in Hawaii's house, even less, other than trying to keep up in a shootout.
Prediction: Hawaii 49, Tulsa 31
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2010-2011 bowl game schedule.
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