SportsRatings: College Football

2009 Projected Final Top 25: Forecasting the Entire Season

You've seen many pre-season Top 25 rankings, even several Top 120 pre-season rankings, including ours. Now we take it a step further. After calling the winner in every game, figuring out the conference winners and championship teams, we paired the teams into bowl games using the BCS rules and conference tie-ins, then projected those games. Here's what happens when you start with our rankings and run through the season in its entirety, then judge the teams by their resulting wins and losses the way pollsters do.

The record included is the record from our projection, but it doesn't have to be literal. There are a number of ways these teams can finish in this order even if events don't strictly play out the way we've envisioned. For example, USC may finish undefeated and #2, or perhaps they played and lost to Florida and still finished second. The far left column is our pre-season ranking of the team.

2009 Projected Post-BCS Final Top 25
#	Team	record	(pre)
1.	Florida	14-0	1
2.	USC	13-0	4
3.	Texas	13-1	2
4.	Oklahoma	12-1	3
5.	Mississippi	13-1	5
6.	Penn State	12-1	9
7.	Alabama	12-1	6
8.	Virginia Tech	12-2	25
9.	Georgia Tech	11-2	21
10.	California	12-1	7
11.	North Carolina	11-2	13
12.	Florida State	10-3	18
13.	Boise State	13-1	16
14.	TCU	12-1	14
15.	Rutgers	12-1	33
16.	Michigan State	11-2	20
17.	Oklahoma State	11-2	11
18.	Notre Dame	10-3	17
19.	Stanford	10-3	15
20.	Arizona	10-3	10
21.	Iowa	10-3	12
22.	Pittsburgh	11-2	36
23.	Clemson	10-4	29
24.	Ohio State	10-3	22
25.	Southern Miss	11-2	43

As you can see nothing can stop Florida from taking the #1 spot. At #2, either USC is bypassed for the BCS title game and wins the Rose Bowl, or alternately they may lose to Florida and still finish #2. Texas and Oklahoma each pick up a loss somewhere along the way—to each other and then likely to Florida, as Texas did in ours. Here, Mississippi's only loss is to Florida.

Penn State finishes #6, either by going undefeated an losing in the Rose Bowl, or they lose one Big Ten game and win the Rose Bowl; in both cases #6 is a reasonable estimate. Alabama could finish below Mississippi by losing to them, or beating them and losing to Florida and in their bowl game; here, it was the former. One of the two SEC teams will miss the BCS, but that team will have an easier bowl game that they'll win.

Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech were only #25 and #21 in the pre-season rankings but scheduling is in their favor, allowing them to rank high and get good bowl pairings. They both jump ahead of North Carolina, a better team that didn't have schedule on its side. Florida State also moves up. California, on the other hand still had to play USC and comes up short and might be out of luck as far as the BCS goes.

Boise State, TCU, and Rutgers all play very easy schedules and all could go undefeated; each has a great shot at a BCS bowl game. Here they each pick up a loss somewhere along the way, but it's most likely in their bowl game. Rutgers, in particular, is not a great team (only #33 pre-season) and will likely be in over their heads in their bowl.

Michigan State and Oklahoma State should have good years but not quite be the best in their conference, keeping them outside the BCS equation. At #18 Notre Dame will end up about where they should; the voters (and computers) will see through their easy schedule and keep them out of the BCS. If they manage to finish the regular season with just one loss and get in they will likely lose their bowl game.

Two surprise Pac-10 teams are next, Stanford and Arizona. They rank even higher pre-season but they probably won't manage to beat the top conference teams and the Pac-10 has bad bowl tie-ins. They'll probably win their bowl games but it won't impress anyone. At #21 Iowa is a near-top 10 team but they play a tough road schedule which will keep them down. Pittsburgh could go 11-2 and still not impress as their schedule is easy.

Clemson might play in the ACC championship game despite being the #5 team in the conference. Ohio State isn't as highly rated by SportsRatings as most pundits; here they finish about where we would expect based on being #22 in quality. If they lose only to USC and Penn State they'll again be in a high-profile bowl game that they probably can't win. Southern Miss is the real overachiever, managing to make the top 25 without playing in the C-USA title game.

Good teams that don't make it

A few teams that were in the top 25 of the pre-season Top 120 didn't make the projected Final Top 25:

The most interesting is Texas Tech. #8 to start the year, they will probably lose to Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State, but not have many big wins to offset that. They finished #30.

Another Big Twelve team, Kansas, is our #24 pre-season team but again, if you can't beat the big teams there's slim pickings left in the conference, and fairly tough tie-in games for the bowls. They finished #32.

Oregon was #19 to start but faces Boise State, USC, Cal, and upstarts Arizona and Stanford. Add in a bowl game and they may have too many losses to get in to the final top 25.

"Others receiving votes"

The teams that we project to finish just outside the top 25: Tulsa, Miami, Central Michigan, Troy, Texas Tech, Georgia, Kansas, Temple, Nevada, Utah, Oregon

2009 Conference Projections: Mountain West, Conference USA, MAC, WAC, Sun Belt

Here are SportsRatings projections for the non-BCS conference races in 2009, based strictly on game-by-game favorites from our 2009 Preview listings—no upsets are picked and no attempt has been made to account for them. An asterisk (*) denotes bowl eligibility expected.

Mountain West
*TCU	8-0
*Utah	7-1
*BYU	6-2
*Air Force	5-3
New Mexico	4-4
UNLV	3-5
Colorado State	2-6
San Diego State	1-7
Wyoming	0-8

The Mountain West caused a stir last year for two reasons: One, having a week in which their teams went 5-0 against the Pac-10. Two, for Utah going 12-0 and busting in on the BCS bowl scene. Utah beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl while TCU defeated Boise State to give the conference two high-profile finishes.

This year many are picking the three top teams to be in the top 25 this year. We only see one team—TCU—being that good. Utah and BYU are both far from their quality of last season but should finish #2 and #3 in the conference followed by Air Force. All four teams should be bowl eligible with room to spare.

After that, though, no other teams will likely finish above .500. But TCU has a good chance of going undefeated and becoming this season's BCS buster.

Conference USA
East division
*East Carolina	7-1
*Southern Miss	7-1
*Central Florida	4-4
*Marshall	4-4
Memphis	1-7
UAB	1-7
West division
*Tulsa	7-1
*Houston	6-2
*Rice	5-3
*UTEP	5-3
SMU	1-7
Tulane	0-8

What a difference home field makes in the conference races. Here's how we see the C-USA standings going down: East Carolina beats Southern Miss, who beats Tulsa, who beats East Carolina, leaving them all 7-1 with the winner in each case being the home team. Now, because the Pirates and the Golden Eagles being in the same division, the latter are eliminated from title game discussion.

What's more, Tulsa retains the home field for the conference championship game, meaning they should win the conference just because they faced East Carolina and Houston at home, while Southern Miss who is just as good gets shafted for being in the East rather than the West. Sometimes that's how it goes, though...

Overall the conference should have eight bowl qualifiers, from which at least five will be selected for bowl games. Central Florida, Marshall, and Rice may be "on the bubble".

Mid-American (MAC)
East division
*Temple	7-1
*Buffalo	6-2
*Akron	6-2
Bowling Green	3-5
Kent State	3-5
Ohio	3-5
Miami Ohio	0-8
West division
*Central Michigan	8-0
*Ball State	6-2
Toledo	4-4
Northern Illinois	3-5
Western Michigan	2-6
Eastern Michigan	1-7

The Temple Owls may take a big leap this year and play for the conference championship. Last year's winner Buffalo and upstart Akron are close behind in contention in the East.

Central Michigan is back in the driver's seat in the West, though. Last year's darling Ball State will still be good but won't threaten to go undefeated this year. The Chippewas then get to play in the championship game very close to home in Ford Field, which should ensure a win over the Owls for the MAC title.

Overall the conference should have five bowl teams—all those that are in the running for the division crowns. All the other teams will come up short to varying degrees. The MAC will have a down year, with the majority of teams not as good as they were last season.

Western Athletic (WAC)
*Boise State	8-0
*Nevada	7-1
*Fresno State	6-2
*Utah State	5-3
Louisiana Tech	4-4
San Jose State	3-5
Hawaii	2-6
New Mexico State	1-7
Idaho	0-8

Boise State makes another run at going undefeated and the WAC shouldn't give them any problem. Nevada is a far distant second to the Broncos who face Oregon at home in their toughest test in the opener. Get past that and only laziness and/or overconfidence can stop them.

The gulf between the best and worst team in the WAC is wider than any other conference (with perhaps the Pac-10 being in the running lately, but that's an aberration). New Mexico State and Idaho are two of the three worst teams in the NCAA so while the projected records make the conference look rather lineal in decay, it's not.

Four teams should be bowl eligible, though Utah State might not get a bid if they finish 6-6.

Sun Belt
*Troy	8-0
*Middle Tennessee St.	7-1
*Arkansas State	6-2
*Florida International	5-3
LA-Lafayette	4-4
Florida Atlantic	3-5
Louisiana-Monroe	2-6
Western Kentucky	1-7
North Texas	0-8

Troy should be in control of the Sun Belt this year. Middle Tennessee, Arkansas State, and FIU are perhaps surprising upstarts but none should threaten the Trojans. Beyond those four there is little hope for bowl eligibility in the conference.

2009 Conference Projections: ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big Twelve, PAC-10, SEC

Here are SportsRatings projections for the BCS conference races in 2009, based strictly on game-by-game favorites from our 2009 Preview listings—no upsets are picked and no attempt has been made to account for them. An asterisk (*) denotes bowl eligibility expected.

ACC
Atlantic division
*Clemson	6-2
*Florida State	6-2
*Boston College	4-4
*Wake Forest	4-4
NC State	2-6
Maryland	0-8
Coastal division
*Virginia Tech	7-1
*Georgia Tech	6-2
*North Carolina	6-2
*Miami	4-4
Virginia	2-6
Duke	1-7

Clemson finally gets a chance to redeem themselves for last year's stumble. Though ranked 2nd in the Atlantic division they get Florida State at home in a game that should decide who goes to the title game. That contest could go either way but Clemson has it by a hair.

The Coastal division is even screwier. Parity still reigns at the top of the conference, and though North Carolina is the best team overall in the ACC they finish third in the division! Having to play Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech on the road is their downfall. Meanwhile Virginia Tech probably loses on the road to the Yellow Jackets but they win everything else to go to the final.

The championship game is played in Tampa this year, and Virginia Tech will likely edge Clemson for another BCS bowl game for the Hokies. 

FSU and North Carolina are only a bounce of the ball away from playing in the title game themselves. Eight teams will likely be bowl eligible in the ACC, though Wake Forest cuts it close.

Big East
*Rutgers	7-0
*Pittsburgh	6-1
*South Florida	5-2
*Cincinnati	4-3
*West Virginia	3-4
Connecticut	2-5
Louisville	1-6
Syracuse	0-7

Rutgers has an easy schedule this year but that's not why they should win the Big East—they're also the best team in the league. That's not saying much this year when no Big East team is a legit top 25 team. Don't worry about the Big East getting skipped over though; Rutgers should be undefeated this year or very close, so they'll have a good ranking at year's end. The Scarlet Knights play Pittsburgh at home so that's more insurance that they should find their way to a BCS bowl.

The rest of the league falls into line basically by quality, though Cincy ends up ahead of West Virginia due to playing them at home. Both should easily be bowl-eligible but UConn, Louisville, and Syracuse are out of luck.

Big Ten
*Penn State	8-0
*Ohio State	7-1
*Michigan State	7-1
*Iowa	5-3
*Minnesota	4-4
*Illinois	4-4
*Wisconsin	3-5
Purdue	2-6
Michigan	2-6
*Northwestern	2-6
Indiana	0-8

Penn State should again rule the conference by beating both of the teams that tie for second place. Ohio State and Michigan State don't play each other so it's a true tie. The Spartans have a better chance than the Buckeyes of beating the Nittany Lions as their game is in East Lansing. But likely both teams suffer just that one loss.

The real 2nd-best team in the conference is Iowa. The Hawks have the bad luck, though, of playing Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan State all on the road. The latter two games are virtual tossups and with a little luck Iowa could move into 2nd place but it would take a lot to get to the Rose Bowl.

Speaking of bowls the top seven teams should all be bowl-eligible pretty easily; Northwestern technically finishes 10th but should reach bowl eligibility also.

Big Twelve
North division
*Kansas	5-3
*Missouri	5-3
*Nebraska	3-5
Kansas State	3-5
Iowa State	1-7
Colorado	1-7
South division
*Texas	8-0
*Oklahoma	7-1
*Oklahoma State	6-2
*Texas Tech	5-3
*Baylor	3-5
Texas A&M	1-7

The much-maligned North division will have a new champion: Kansas. The Jayhawks should beat Missouri in their season-ending Kansas City contest and win the tiebreaker to face, and lose to, the South division champ.

The South division is once again loaded, with the Red River Shootout determining who goes to the Big 12 title game as well as the national championship. Texas is still the slim favorite as we knock on the door of the season's start. Oklahoma should run the table other than that, with Oklahoma State losing only to Texas and Oklahoma while beating Texas Tech in a home game. In all, five teams from the South should be bowl-bound including Baylor.

Texas will have home field advantage in the Big Twelve title game, ensuring that if they beat Oklahoma they will be on their way to a BCS bowl game, most likely the national championship. In the North, only three teams will be bowl eligible, with Kansas State reaching six wins but only being able to count one of the two FCS teams on their schedule.

Pac Ten
*Southern Cal	9-0
*California	8-1
*Arizona	7-2
*Stanford	6-3
*Oregon	5-4
*Oregon State	4-5
Arizona State	3-6
UCLA	2-7
Washington	1-8
Washington St.	0-9

The Pac Ten has USC at the top as usual, with Cal just barely failing to knock them off. Two surprise teams land at #3 and #4: Arizona and Stanford, displacing the Oregon teams from where most pundits have them.

With USC and Penn State both favored in their conferences but likely shut out from the national championship, it looks like a Rose Bowl repeat of last year's one-sided contest. The Pac-10 was 5-0 in bowl games last year and will have a chance to do that one better in 2009 as six teams should qualify with room to spare.

Washington and Washington State will again bring up the rear, but the Huskies will do a lot better this season while the Cougars won't make much progress.

SEC
East division
*Florida	8-0
*Georgia	7-1
*Vanderbilt	4-4
*Tennessee	2-6
South Carolina	1-7
Kentucky	1-7
West division
*Mississippi	8-0
*Alabama	7-1
*LSU	4-4
*Arkansas	3-5
*Auburn	3-5
Mississippi St.	0-8

There are two huge games in the SEC: the title game, of course, and the Alabama-Mississippi game on October 10th. The latter decides who gets to face Florida in December.

Because that game is in Oxford, the Rebels should win the West division. LSU is a very distant their so if Alabama can best Ole Miss they should expect to win the division.

Florida will dominate the East, which is weak this year. Georgia is about as good as LSU but finishes 7-1 in the SEC due to avoiding playing Alabama and Mississippi and facing LSU at home. Florida should also win the SEC title and be in the national championship game.

Tennessee will just barely be bowl-eligible while in the West even Arkansas and Auburn will easily make it.

2009 Pre-season Rankings - #1 (No surprise) Florida Gators

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers the #1 pick. To see the full list, click here.

1. Florida Gators (SEC #1; East #1)          Polls: AP #1, USA/Coaches #1

2008 Results:    Record: 13-1   Bowl: Beat Oklahoma 24-14 (BCS title)   Poll finish: AP #1, USA #1
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #1    Success: #2    Overall: #1
The rich get richer. With Tim Tebow and the entire defense back Florida is overwhelmingly favored to not only repeat, but to go undefeated and be one of the best college football teams of all time.

Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #2   Adj. Rush Yards: #5    Adj. Pass Yards: #60
It starts with Tim Tebow. When the 2007 Heisman winner announced he was coming back for his senior year it erased any doubt as to which team would be the pre-season favorite. Tebow's numbers were down significantly from his Heisman campaign but he still had jaw-dropping stats: 2,746 yards passing and 30 TDs with just 4 interceptions (only 2 during the regular season). He added 673 yards and 12 TDs on the ground. His value as a team leader is immeasurable and if you get the chance to spend a few moments with him you'll be a better person for it. Okay that last part is malarkey, but he's a unique talent in the college game.

The passing game last year was more of an adjunct to the Gator ground game, and Tebow loses his two best receivers, Louis Murphy (655 yards, 7 TDs) and Percy Harvin (644, 7), the latter being the biggest loss on the team by far.  But there's plenty of talent back starting with tight end Aaron Hernandez (5 TDs) and Riley Cooper (3 TDs) with Deonte Thompson (3 TDs) and David Nelson (5 TDs) taking over the other receiver slots. Harvin was also 2nd leading rusher (to Tebow) with 660 yards and 10 touchdowns, but Chris Rainey, lightning-fast Jeffrey Demps, and Emmanuel Moody had over 1,500 yards combined and each averaged over 7 yards per carry.

The offensive line will be more than sound once again, returning three starters—Mike and Maurkice Pouncey, and Carl Johnson—to a line that allowed just 16 sacks and blocked for over 3,000 rushing yards. Overall the offense could be every bit as good as it was last year, with the rushing and passing balance dependant on what new coordinator Steve Addazio wants to emphasize. There has been talk that Tebow's delivery has been refined to less of a sidearm action, that he may line up behind center more often to prepare him for the pros, that backup QB John Brantley will see more action to prepare the Gators for next season, and that corner Joe Haden might take some snaps. It doesn't really matter which way it hits you, this offense is loaded with weapons.

Defense (11 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #2    Adj. Rush Def: #15    Adj. Pass Def: #8
As loaded as the offense is, the defense may outshine them this season. Every starter is back from last season, which is intimidating enough, but the full 2nd string is back as well. The defensive line returns Jermaine Cunningham (6 sacks), Terron Sanders, Lawrence Marsh, and Justin Trattou, with Carlos Dunlap (9.5 sacks) moving ahead of Trattou this year. At linebacker Ryan Stamper, Brandon Hicks, and Brandon Spikes (#1 tackler, 4 int) make up one of the nation's best 3-man units. A.J. Jones started half the year and returns as Hicks' backup; Dustin Doe was questionable due to suspension but he'll be out for just a game most likely. The secondary returns intact as well with corners Joe Haden (#2 tackler, 12 pass break-ups) and Janoris Jenkins (11 pbu's) plus safeties Ahmad Black (7 interceptions) and Major Wright (4 int). Backup safety Will Hill was the team's #6 tackler. The closest thing to significant loss the Gator defense has is John Jones, a reserve linebacker who finished #19 in tackles last year, and the fact that backup safety Dorian Munroe (injured most of last year) is out for the first several games.

The defense is among the very best in the NCAA in each sector (D-line, linebacker, and secondary) and  overall has to be considered the best in the land. I expect Florida to be #1 in scoring defense and in the top ten or top five in both rushing and passing defense. Though shutouts are hard to predict there is no reason the Gator D can't hold opponents to single digits in at least a half dozen games. With depth covering for possibility of injury, the Florida defense has a chance to be one of the all-time best in college football.

Kicking Game (2 RS):  As if Florida needed more solid positions, the Gators return one of the best kicking duos in the game. Punter Chas Henry averaged 43.4 yards per punt, and kicker Jonathan Phillips hit 12 of 13 field goals and 78 of 79 extra points.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #19
Urban Meyer inherited a lot of talent when he took over for Ron Zook and after adding to it for the last four years he's got a glut of great players. The Gators recruited a smaller class this year that still finishes in the top 25 due to its quality. The state of Florida is naturally the starting point and two of the class' (and the country's) best recruits are defensive lineman Gary Brown from Quincy, FL and wide receiver Andre Dubose from Sanford, FL.  As for Meyer he's doing quite well for himself, signing a new contract that pays him $4 million a year.

2009 Season Outlook  Compared to what followed, the first 1/3 of the 2008 season was sloppy and troublesome. The offense struggled to put points on the board against Miami and Tennessee, winning just 26-3 and 30-6. In the next game the defense had trouble, too, leading to a shocking 31-30 loss to Mississippi when Tebow couldn't convert a fourth down play. That of course led to the famous Tebow speech where he promised to play (and have his team play) harder than anyone has every played.

Whether that was really a turning point or just a coincidence (I would go with the former) the Gators cleaned up for the rest of the season, winning every game by at least four touchdowns regardless of the competition. LSU? 51-21. Georgia? 49-10. Florida State? 45-15. The SEC championship game against Alabama was competitive but the outcome secure, 31-20, and while Oklahoma created opportunities in the championship game the defense closed those doors en route to a 24-14 win. Urban Meyer and Tim Tebow had their 2nd BCS titles in just three years.

Florida 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Charleston Southern	100%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Troy	100%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	100%	W
9/26	Sat	@	*Kentucky	100%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Louisiana State	88%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	100%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	100%	W
10/31	Sat	N	*Georgia	92%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	99%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*South Carolina	99%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	Florida International	100%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	Florida State	94%	W
Favored: 12-0   Projected: 12-0

Florida's 2009 team wrecks my prediction scheme. Normally the "100%" designation is extremely rare and occurs only when games are a joke. That's why I don't bother to denote them as "99.9%" or something more realistic, even though clearly no game is a guarantee. But Florida is so far ahead of the rest of the pack on paper that even against legitimate teams they're picked as a near-certain thing. Only five teams on the schedule should have a real chance of beating the Gators. I think most would agree that Charleston Southern (7-5 last year in I-AA with a 52-7 loss to Miami, and probably not even as good this year) in the Swamp is about as close to a sure win as you can get (Danny Sheridan made them a 63 point underdog; I'll go with 70-0), but Troy? Tennessee? Kentucky on the road? Four SEC opponents? Obviously these teams have some chance of pulling the upset in reality.

But the remaining games don't offer much a chance, either. Even LSU at home is afforded only a 12% chance of beating Florida, and that's the closest any team gets. The cumulative projection, which is normally a conservative look at a team, expects the Gators to go undefeated, too. If Florida can live up to this, they will be one of the best teams of all time.

As other teams suffer injuries, transfers, and other defections of starters, returning lettermen, and key recruits, Florida has been blissfully unharmed this summer, further separating them from the masses. They currently rank two touchdowns ahead of Texas and Oklahoma, the next two teams in the SportsRatings pre-season rankings. That's why I feel that this team will go undefeated, not only through the regular season, but the SEC championship game and the BCS championship game as well.

Great teams start with great defense, and defense is going to be Florida's strong point this year. Teams that win via offense can always have a problem if the offense gets rattled and doesn't perform (see Texas Tech last year, or Oklahoma in the title game). But teams with rock-solid defense are dependable, especially when backed up by an excellent offense. The team's talent and depth is amazing, and it would take a perfect storm for someone to beat them. Urban Meyer's only job this season is to keep the team from getting overconfident, something that happened early last season and could happen again. If that occurs there are any number of opponents in the SEC who could topple the Gators; no team is immune from upset. But this team is pretty close. It will be an interesting year to see if this team can be the best college football team of all time, as well as seeing if any team manages to beat them, and if not, seeing who comes the closest.

2009 Pre-season Rankings - #2 Texas, #3 Oklahoma (for now...)

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams #2 and #3. To see the full list, click here.

2. Texas Longhorns (Big Twelve #1; South #1)        Polls: AP #2, USA/Coaches #2

2008 Results:    Record: 12-1   Bowl: Beat Ohio State 24-21 (Fiesta)   Poll finish: AP #4, USA #3
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #4    Success: #3    Overall: #4
A last-second touchdown prevented the Longhorns from competing for the national title last year; they reload and try again in '09.

Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #4   Adj. Rush Yards: #44    Adj. Pass Yards: #7
Colt McCoy had a great freshman year followed by a classic sophomore slump in '07. Last year he was perhaps seconds away from winning the Heisman trophy and playing for the national championship. McCoy set an NCAA record with a 76.67% completion rate, passing for 3,859 yards and 34 touchdowns with just 8 interceptions. Back to pursue both unrealized goals this year, he'll be protected by a much more experienced line that has four starters back. They should improve upon last year's sack total (26) and maybe McCoy won't have to be the team's leading rusher (561 yards, 11 TDs). The Longhorns return a number of their top backs—among them Vondrell McGee (376 yards) and Cody Johnson (12 TDs)—but the offense the last few years has become one dimensional, with McCoy being the dimension. Though Quan Cosby is gone, Jordan Shipley who also topped 1,000 receiving yards is back along with Malcolm Williams, Brandon Collins, James Kirkendoll, and last year's backup QB John Chiles (though tight end Blaine Kirby will miss the season due to knee injury) and the passing game should be just as potent. If one or more of the backs can top McCoy's rushing total the offense will be more balanced and even better than last year's juggernaut.

Defense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #5    Adj. Rush Def: #5    Adj. Pass Def: #51
Texas had one of the best balances between offense and defense in the nation; both units ranked in the top five all year long. The defensive line goes through some major changes this year that will impact their rushing defense and pass rush. The front four lose three starters who combined for 21 sacks including Brian Orakpo with 11.5. Lamarr Houston is back and Sergio Kindle (10 sacks) moves from linebacker which is good news for the D-line but the linebackers' loss. At linebacker they also lose Rashad Bobino but #1 tackler Roddrick Muckelroy returns and Jared Norton was #4 in tackles last year, so things aren't that bad, plus Kindle will move between end and linebacker as needed. The secondary ranked a brutal #104 in the nation in passing yards yielded, but recall that they faced the likes of Missouri, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma, all in the top four in the nation in passing. When the yardage is adjusted they were above average and will be even better this year as they lose only corner Ryan Palmer (3 int). Just freshmen last year, safeties Earl Thomas and Blake Gideon combined for 24 pass break-ups and both should be even better as sophomores. At corner Deon Beasley is back and Chykie Brown will start full-time after starting much of last year when Texas used the nickel defense. Overall on defense the top five tacklers return and while they'll be hard-pressed to top last year's 47 sacks—though Kindle could have 20 by himself—the passing defense will be better, keeping the unit every bit as solid as it was last year.

Kicking Game (2 RS): Texas used two punters last year, John Gold and ambidextrous rugby-style punter Justin Tucker. Both averaged around 45 yards a kick, and the team net was an excellent 39.6. Both are back this year. At kicker Hunter Lawrence is back after doing about everything the team asked of him, hitting 60 of 60 extra points and 10 of 12 field goals.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #5
Mack Brown continues to bring in the recruits. Once criticized for not putting the Longhorns into the national race despite getting great recruits, he now does both and has restored Texas to a lofty position in the college football world. This year's class, the best in the Big Twelve, has a potential heir to McCoy in hometown recruit Garrett Gilbert. Alex Okafor could contribute on the D-line immediately, and Mason Walters is a top O-line prospect. There are about 10 other blue chips in the '09 class but you get the idea.

2009 Season Outlook  What else can be said about last year? Breezing through cupcakes in the pre-season (though holding Rice to 10 points was great in retrospect), Texas wasn't expected to win the showdown with Oklahoma but they held on for a 45-35 win. Stomping Missouri and dodging Oklahoma State narrowly, they headed for the final lap in a Mile Run From Hell. At Texas Tech they fell into a big hole, then dug their way out and led until the final second when Harrell and Crabtree hooked up for their famous TD pass. The Longhorns took care of business, polishing off three more foes while hoping for things to work out in the conference and national title pictures. It didn't happen, as the Sooners ultimately got into the BCS title game for being ranked higher in the BCS standings. An uninspired Longhorn team needed a last minute touchdown to beat Ohio State 24-21.

Texas 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Monroe	100%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Wyoming	100%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	*Texas Tech	75%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	UTEP	97%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Colorado	95%	W
10/17	Sat	N	*Oklahoma	51%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Missouri	78%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Oklahoma State	68%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	Central Florida	99%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Baylor	76%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Kansas	81%	W
11/26	Thu	@	*Texas A&M	89%	W
Favored: 12-0   Projected: 10-2

Texas is going to be a very good football team again. According to my system the first two games (UL-Monroe, Wyoming) are so certain that one shouldn't even bother docking anything from their cumulative percentage. Take "100%" to mean very, very close to a sure thing. Four other opponents (UTEP, Colorado, UCF, and Texas A&M) should show up just to see if maybe they can win the lottery. Texas Tech, Missouri, Baylor, and Kansas are all good teams, but they are heavy underdogs to the Longhorns. That leaves Oklahoma State, who has some chance of winning in Stillwater, and the Sooners who have a coin flip's chance.

The Red River Rivalry will decide the Big Twelve South champion this year; no way Texas is screwed out of it again if they win, and neither team is likely to lose another game in the conference anyway. But even at these high odds the cumulative projection comes to 10-2, which is what UT will be if they have a disappointing year. Texas and Oklahoma are so evenly matched and play on a neutral field so there's no clear winner. Right now Texas is ahead in my system by a hair; tomorrow someone might get injured for the season and it could flip back to the Longhorns. If either team goes undefeated they'll play Florida for the national title; if both end up with a loss it will be USC in that game. A lot is on the line on October 17th.

3. Oklahoma Sooners (Big Twelve #1; South #1)       Polls: AP #3, USA/Coaches #3

2008 Results:   Record: 12-2  Bowl: Lost to Florida 24-14 (BCS title game)  Poll finish: AP #5, USA #5
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #2    Success: #5    Overall: #2
Oklahoma hopes for another shot at Florida, but can't afford a loss to Texas this season.

Offense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #1   Adj. Rush Yards: #16    Adj. Pass Yards: #3
The Sooner offense was simply amazing last year, and was unstoppable until the BCS championship game when they scored just 14 (though they did blow opportunities to score quite a bit more). This year's model still looks great at quarterback, great at running back, good at receiver, but very questionable on the offensive line. Heisman winner Sam Bradford returns to take what's becoming a commonplace shot at being a two-time recipient, joining Josh White, Matt Leinart, and Tim Tebow among those returning after winning the award. Bradford's 4,720 yards and 50(!) touchdowns with just 8 receptions gave him a slim voting margin over Colt McCoy and Tebow last season, as did one of his 5 TDs runs where he cartwheeled through the air. At running back Chris Brown (1,220 yards, 20 TDs) and DeMarco Murray (1,002 yds, 14 TDs) are about the best one-two punch you could ask for other than Bush/White. Jermain Gresham is back at tight end after reeling in 14 TD passes last year, and Ryan Broyles is back at receiver after a fine freshman year, but they do lose star Juaquin Iglesias (1,150 yards, 10 TDs) and #3 Manuel Johnson (9 TDs).

The losses on the offensive line are far heavier. Four starters with a combined 12 years of starting experience are gone, including NFL draft picks Phil Loadholt and Duke Robinson. Certainly one reason Bradford was so good last year is that he seemingly had all day to throw; the line gave up just 13 sacks. And the holes opened up for Murray and Brown were big enough for a charging rhino. With only Trent Williams returning the line will be much weaker, meaning it should still be very good but not as great as last year's line. Bradford will find things a bit more difficult this year due to the loss of receivers and linemen, and the running game won't be as productive. But there's a long way to come down from last year's record output so they still be one of the best units in the nation. It's not likely Bradford will get 50 TD passes or the Sooners have two 1,000 yard backs again but the offense will still get the job done.

Defense (9 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #17    Adj. Rush Def: #26    Adj. Pass Def: #79
In a nutshell, the defense loses its safeties, and that's it—everyone else is back. What this means is that the weakest area of the defense may get weaker, although the pass defense numbers from last year are misleading. The Sooners gave up a lot of yards (99th in raw passing yardage, 79th adjusted) but were #11 in interceptions and #3 in sacks (counted against rushing yards) so overall the pass defense was sound. Losing Lendy Holmes (5 interceptions) and Nic Harris, their #2 and #4 tacklers, hurts the secondary but corners Brian Jackson and Dominique Franks (4 int) had 20 pass break-ups between them and form a good foundation. As mentioned, everywhere else the Sooners are solid. The defensive line returns stars Austin English and Gerald McCoy at end and tackle with Adrian Taylor and Jeremy Beal (8.5 sacks) also back, forming one of the best D-lines in the country. Expect excellent rushing defense numbers from the Sooners in '09 with this line, and due to the linebacking corps returning all its starters as well: Ryan Reynolds, hurt in the middle of the season, is back and hopefully stays healthy. Travis Lewis (#1 tackler with 144 as a freshman) is a superstar in the making and Keenan Clayton is back for his senior year. There are some issues with depth as key backup Mike Balogun may be ineligible this season for playing semi-pro football beyond his 21st birthday, and incoming freshman Tom Wort was sidelined with a knee injury. Balogun is appealing the NCAA decision but it doesn't look to me like he'll win. Regardless, Oklahoma has other strong backups and the front seven is perhaps the best in the country. 

Kicking Game (1 RS):  Kicker Jimmy Stevens got a lot of practice on extra points (hitting 94 of 99) but not much work kicking field goals (8 of 12). He's back but punter Mike Knall (just a 36.5 average) is gone. Redshirt freshman Tress Way is the new punter (and is competing for the placekicking job too) but he apparently isn't much better. That's okay, the Sooners don't plan on punting very much this year either.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #13
Bob Stoops—can't win the big one? Or just random events making him look bad? After winning the national championship in 2000, Oklahoma has had a string of bad luck in BCS games, losing three championship games since then (2003, 2004, 2008) and their last five BCS bowls overall. Three coin flips (or even five) doesn't prove much, but when it comes to sports everything has to have a correlation, especially if you're a fan who has eight months to mull over your team's latest loss. Of course this ignores his 2001 and 2005 bowl wins and disregards the 2002 Rose Bowl win, and the fact that getting to five BCS bowls in six years is nothing short of amazing (they've been to seven in this decade).

This year's recruiting class suggests that the winning will continue. Roughly the same level as last year's class, just inside or outside of the top ten, maybe two or three fewer blue chip players than 2008. As mentioned in the defense section, newcomer Tom Wort was expected to play a key role at linebacker but will redshirt with a knee injury. And Wort wasn't even the highest-touted linebacker prospect in the group; that honor goes to Ronnell Lewis from Dewar, Oklahoma. So far he's healthy.

2009 Season Outlook  The Sooners steamrolled opponents with offense last year, setting a new NCAA scoring record. The worst teams just succumbed, unable to score points (Chattanooga, Washington); better teams score points but couldn't keep up (Cincinnati, Kansas, Oklahoma State); TCU held them to 35 but only scored 10 points themselves; and a few of the very best managed to beat them (Texas, Florida). Oklahoma scored 60 or more points five times in a row, and not against cupcakes: Nebraska, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Missouri. They scored 716 points over the course of the season but only 14 in the BCS Championship game.

Oklahoma 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	BYU	91%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Idaho State	100%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Tulsa	88%	W
10/3	Sat	@	Miami (Florida)	76%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Baylor	82%	W
10/17	Sat	N	*Texas	49%	L
10/24	Sat	@	*Kansas	73%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Kansas State	95%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Nebraska	82%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Texas A&M	95%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Texas Tech	68%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma State	74%	W
Favored: 11-1   Projected: 10-2

This season comes down to the Texas game. If the Sooners have trouble because of their less experienced offensive line they might lose two games; any more than that is a big disappointment. Beat Texas and they could very well go undefeated. They won't score 700 points again this year but they'll hold their opponents to a lot less than last year's 343.

Miami should be their first reasonable challenge; not even BYU on the "neutral" field of Arlington, TX counts. Tulsa was good last year but loses a lot of offense. Baylor will put up a fight but the Sooners should go into the Red River Rivalry unblemished. Afterwards there a road game at Kansas, and later Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. If they beat Texas I don't see them losing again, but if they fall to Texas they might have a second loss in one of those games.

Right now the Longhorns have a superslim edge that could go away before the season starts depending on how injuries and eligibilities play out. So basically the game, and thus who will be the national title competitor, is too close to call.

2009 Pre-season Rankings - #4 USC

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers team #4. To see the full list, click here.

4. Southern Cal Trojans (Pac-10 #1)          Polls: AP #4, USA/Coaches #4

2008 Results:    Record: 12-1   Bowl: Beat Penn State 38-24 (Rose)   Poll finish: AP #3, USA #2
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #3    Success: #4    Overall: #3
Which Rose Bowl will the Trojans be playing in—the one on January 1st or the one on January 7th?

Offense (9 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #9   Adj. Rush Yards: #25    Adj. Pass Yards: #18
All they need is a quarterback and they'd have the dominant offense they've been lacking for years. Ever since Leinart and Bush left after 2005 USC has been a defense-dominated team. Two years of John David Booty weren't as productive as hoped and even with Mark Sanchez occasionally looking like a pro QB (66% for 3,207 yards, 34 TDs, 10 int) the offense wasn't top-rate. But with all the talent back this year it could be—if they find the right guy at the helm. Sanchez chose not to return or he'd be in the thick of the Heisman race with Tebow, Bradford, and McCoy. Instead USC will go with a freshman, either true freshman Matt Barkley or redshirt frosh Aaron Corp, both of whom are capable—and beat out Arkansas transfer Mitch Mustain—but still it means the quarterback is going to be a freshman. Corp was #1 after the spring but recently hurt his knee and Barkley was coming on strong. Update: Barkley was named the starter in late August.

Apart from the quarterback slot everything is rosey. The Trojans lose #2 receiver Patrick Turner (10 TDs) but have a wealth of targets to choose from including #1 Damian Williams (869 yards, 9 TDs), Ronald Johnson (8 TDs), fullback Stanley Havili (3 TDs), and tight end Anthony McCoy. At running back for several years (since the Bush/White days) they've had a committee approach and that continues with the main three members returning, Stafon Johnson (705 yards, 9 TDs), Joe McKnight (659 yards, 2 TDs), and starter C.J. Gable (617 yards, 8 TDs). Any one of the three might end up the leading rusher, and all three going over 1,000 yards is within the realm of possibility due to the strength on the offensive line. The Trojans return all five starters (three seniors, two juniors) and backups from last year. If the freshman quarterback can't take the heat, all that new offensive coordinator John Morton needs to do is call running plays all day. But since he was the quarterbacks coach before moving up, he'll probably want to keep a balanced attack.

Defense (3 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #1    Adj. Rush Def: #6    Adj. Pass Def: #1
The dominant defense of the last several years may be gone in 2009 as only three starters are back. For most teams this would spell doom; USC however will reload, drawing on their huge stock of talent. But no matter what, there will be some decline in the unit, and for the first time since 2004 the team might have a balance between the quality on both sides of the ball. The defensive front four loses three starters, Clay Matthews, Fili Moala, and Kyle Moore who combined for 14 sacks while Christian Tupou (0 sacks) returns. Everson Griffin (4.5 sacks) will join the starting lineup to help with the pass rush. At linebacker all three starters are gone, including the incomparable Rey Maualuga (#1 tackler, 2 int), Brian Cushing (#2 tackler), and Kaluka Maiava (#3 tackler). The linebacker corps will still be excellent as usual but the loss of Maualuga and Cushing, two of USC's best-ever, is hard to overcome and it will be tough to duplicate last year's top ten rushing defense finish. The secondary is in really good shape; after finishing the year #1 in adjusted pass defense in 2008 two starters are back: Josh Pinkard and safety Taylor Mays, who along with Eric Berry of Tennessee will be this season's token defensive Heisman candidates. My guess is teams will try to run more against USC this year, and still won't have too much luck. 

Kicking Game (0 RS):  The Trojans must replace mediocre punter Greg Woidneck (36.9 average) and decent kicker David Buehler (9 of 13 FG). JUCO transfer Jacob Harfman is up for both spots (but more likely he gets the punting job) along with backup Billy O'Malley. Nebraska transfer Jordan Congdon and junior Joe Houston are the likely candidates to placekick.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #9
What can be said about Pete Carroll other than he wins a lot and looks like he's having a great time when he does it? It's hard to imagine now that the more vocal fans were generally negative toward him when the hiring was announced. They're all smiles now. In terms of recruiting USC has had a couple off years, and this year even placed 2nd in the Pac-10! After five straight years of #1 or near-#1 in the nation, last year the Trojans slipped just outside the top 10, and are barely inside it this year. The problem is that they're so crowded with great players that they can't recruit larger classes, so there have been just 18 or 19 players recruited each year for the past two. The quality of the players hasn't gone down, though; this year's consensus superstars are safety T.J. McDonald from Fresno, defensive lineman Devon Kennard from Phoenix, and of course quarterback Matt Barkley from Santa Ana who will be this season's starter. The rest of the class consists almost entirely of blue chips. Some questions have been raised about USC recruiting—re: Reggie Bush and improper payments, and concerning Tim Floyd and O.J. Mayo—but so far nothing has surfaced implicating Carroll. It's not hard to believe that players just truly want to come play for him and for USC, the current status symbol (even beyond Florida) in the college football world.

2009 Season Outlook  2008 was another year, another "unbeatable" team, another inexplicable loss in conference play, and more talk about how "they're playing the best football of any team" by the end of the season. The Trojans have shot themselves in the foot innumerable times (well, ok: 4 times) since 2005, all but one of their losses being a major upset. In 2006, Oregon State and UCLA; in 2007, Stanford the 41-point underdog; and last season, Oregon State once again. All of these losses were preceded by many fans and writers calling USC "unquestionably the best team in college football" with some even calling them the best of all time. After they beat Ohio State 35-3, this talk was quick to spring up again. Not one game later the Trojans were in a 21-0 hole that they couldn't quite dig out of. The rest of the season was hit and miss, with the defense always performing well and the offense sometimes joining them. Three shutouts and 10 teams held to 10 points or less was the tally at year's end. The offense underperformed at Arizona and vs. Cal, scoring just 17, but they exploded for 31 in the first half of the Rose Bowl against Penn State. Carelessness allowed the Lions to make the final score look respectable.

USC 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	San Jose State	95%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Ohio State	63%	W
9/19	Sat	@	*Washington	86%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Washington State	100%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*California	53%	W
10/17	Sat	@	Notre Dame	63%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Oregon State	73%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Oregon	64%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Arizona State	70%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	69%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	*UCLA	86%	W
12/5	Sat	vs.	*Arizona	67%	W
Favored: 12-0   Projected: 9-3

Will they play on January 1st or January 7th? The Trojans ought to sweep their schedule, but that can almost be said every year. And they play a lot of good teams, many of them on the road. The first half of the season runs hot and cold: San Jose State, Washington, and Washington State have no business being on the field with USC, while Ohio State, Cal, and Notre Dame are all consensus top 25 and are all road games. My guess is that if any team is going to stop them it will be Cal, with the Trojans coming off a back-to-back breather against the Washington teams and still likely missing a couple of players that were injured in fall camp. They have a week off before Notre Dame but that game could be huge with both teams undefeated. If USC goes 6-0 they have a relatively easy 2nd half, with four home games. But both Oregon teams are good, Stanford and Arizona should be surprisingly good (I think) and UCLA is a rivalry game. If we've learned anything it's that USC gets bit when they think they're the best team ever and the more games they get through undefeated the more they'll be thinking just that.

But I also think the team is hungry this year after going so long (for them, yes) without playing for the championship. After years of seeing it as their right or their destiny, they realize they need to play their way in, and a loss in the Pac-10 (or anywhere) probably puts an end to the dream. I suspect we'll see USC go undefeated this year barring a legitimate (i.e. not a huge upset) loss at Cal. And there's a very good chance they'll play Florida in the Rose Bowl (the stadium, not the bowl) on January 7th.

2009 Pre-season Rankings - #5 Mississippi, #6 Alabama

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams #5 and #6. To see the full list, click here.

5. Mississippi Rebels (SEC #2; West #1)     Polls: AP #8, USA/Coaches #10

2008 Results:    Record: 9-4   Bowl: Beat Texas Tech 47-34 (Cotton)   Poll finish: AP #14, USA #15
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #13    Success: #8    Overall: #10
A neck-and-neck race in the SEC West could go to the Rebels by a nose.

Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #17   Adj. Rush Yards: #21    Adj. Pass Yards: #41
Jevan Snead had the audacity to get a vote as pre-season SEC MVP over Tim Tebow, courtesy of Steve Spurrier's staff. That the vote caused controversy is ridiculous; if anyone other than Tebow is the MVP at the end of the season it could very well be Snead, who passed for 2,762 yards and 26 TDs as a sophomore. But Dexter McCluster is just as dynamic, taking direct snaps and leading the team in rushing (655 yards, 6 TDs) while also racking up 625 yards receiving. Shay Hodge (8 TDs) is back at receiver along with half-time starter tight end Gerald Harris, while starting tailback Cordera Eason (647 yards) and backup Brandon Bolden (542) are among several backs vying for carries. The offensive line was crucial to the team's success last year; they lose two full-time starters but two, John Jerry and Daverin Geralds, are back with Reid Neely who started half-time last year and all of 2007. Other than Snead and Bolden everyone mentioned in this paragraph is a senior, so this offense has been around the block.

Defense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #14    Adj. Rush Def: #4    Adj. Pass Def: #97
With five starters back from the front seven the tough Rebel rushing defense could be just as tough this year. Three are back on the defensive line: Kentrell Lockett, Ted Laurent, and Marcus Tillman, who combined for 20 tackles for loss but just 4 of the team's 38 sacks. With Peria Jerry (7 sacks) gone and Greg Hardy (8.5 sacks) slowed by an injured foot the pass rush might not be as effective. Jonathan Cornell and Allen Walker return at linebacker but starter Ashley Palmer is gone as is backup Tony Fein, the team's #3 tackler last year. The passing defense wasn't as bad as #97, but teams couldn't run on the Rebels so they went to the air. The secondary should be much improved as three senior starters return, two at corner (Marshay Green and Cassius Vaughn) and at safety Kendrick Vaughn (#1 tackler, 4 interceptions). Though the Rebels actually lose four of their top five tacklers the next ten return, and every section of the defense is capable of being as good or better than last season's top 20 unit.

Kicking Game (1 RS): Placekicker Joshua Shene is back after connecting on 17 of 21 field goals in 08. Replacing punter Rob Park (38.9 average) will be senior Justin Sparks.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #18
Houston Nutt really made things difficult for a lot of coaches in the NCAA in the past year. All across the country coaches are trying to build programs or turn them around from adversity, which takes time and much patience on the part of fans and boosters. So what does Nutt do in his first year at Mississippi? He takes a 3-9 team and transforms them into an 8-4 power, along the way beating last year's national champion Florida, the previous year's national champion LSU, Auburn and his former team Arkansas, and blowing out arch-rival Mississippi State 45-0, capping it with bowl win over a top ten opponent. Then he goes out and recruits one of the country's very best recruiting classes. At one time I ranked the 2009 class in the top ten nationally, but major attrition set in and now it's only #8 in the SEC! Some of what has happened: D-back Jamar Hornsby was released from his scholarship after being charged with felony assault; LB Willie Ferrell went to Florida A&M; WR Montez Phillips opted to play baseball; and RB Gabriel Hunter, DB Artice Kellam, LB DeMarcus Knight, DL Eric Smiley, RB Stephen Houston, DL Mike Thomas, and DL Cameron Whigham all either didn't qualify or are going to junior college or both. Amazingly that still leaves over a dozen blue chip-quality players including standouts Pat Patterson (wide receiver) and offensive lineman Bobbie Massie.

2009 Season Outlook  As said above, in Nutt's first year the Rebels beat Florida (after stuffing Tim Tebow on a 4th and 1), Nutt's old team Arkansas (just 23-21 but in Fayetteville), Auburn, LSU on the road (31-13), rival Mississippi State, and Texas Tech 47-34. They lost close games to Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Alabama and won their last six. They take more momentum into this season than just about anyone.

Ole Miss 2009 schedule & forecast
9/6	Sun	@	Memphis	80%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	SE Louisiana	100%	W
9/24	Thu	@	*South Carolina	70%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	62%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	53%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	UAB	90%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	74%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Auburn	65%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	Northern Arizona	96%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	76%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Louisiana State	65%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	82%	W
Favored: 12-0   Projected: 9-3

Not only does Mississippi play only five road games, they get three of them out of the way in the first month of the season. They also play two FCS (I-AA) teams, and not particularly good ones either. The potential trap game is at Vanderbilt, which comes right before the showdown with Alabama. Helping matters, though, is the fact that Vanderbilt beat them last year so they won't overlook them. The Rebel-Tide contest on October 3rd should decide the SEC West and have national title implications; as I see the teams about even this year the home field gives the edge to Mississippi.

After that they just have to maintain their focus. Their next test is at Auburn, then they have three more home games starting with a breather (Northern Arizona) and progressing until LSU comes to town. The rivalry game with Mississippi State shouldn't be much more competitive than last year, but if they come in 11-0 it will be huge. I think the Rebels have a good shot at an undefeated year, with one major challenge and a few lesser ones in a fairly kind schedule (as far as the SEC goes). A 9-3 year would mean they dropped some close ones like last year. Like Alabama, I think Mississippi will go 11-1 this year, either losing to Alabama or beating them and losing somewhere else. Which is to say, I don't know who will win that game but both teams will be 11-1 at the end. Since it's in Oxford I'll go with the Rebels, meaning they'll lose one of their road games (Vanderbilt, Auburn, Mississippi State) in an upset. Then they'll play Florida and we'll see what happens in that rematch.

6. Alabama Crimson Tide (SEC #3; West #2)     Polls: AP #5, USA/Coaches #5

2008 Results:    Record: 12-2   Bowl: Lost to Utah 31-17 (Sugar)   Poll finish: AP #6, USA #6
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #11    Success: #6    Overall: #8
A killer defense aims to take the Tide back to the SEC championship game.

Offense (4 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #22   Adj. Rush Yards: #20    Adj. Pass Yards: #89
When was the last time a #1 team had such an unknown quarterback? That was a question for last season when Alabama was 12-0 with John Parker Wilson at the helm. How many college football fans couldn't even name the Tide QB last year? In fact the Alabama offense wasn't very heralded at all, even though they had the occasional explosive game, such as putting up 31 on Georgia by halftime. Wilson's stats weren't Heisman-quality, just 2,273 yards passing and 10 TDs. Running back Glen Coffee came on strong with 1,383 yards and 10 TDs, and Julio Jones might have been their most famous cog after nearly reaching 1,000 receiving yards in his freshman turn. Jones is back, along with #3 receiver Mike McCoy, but that's it for the "skill" position starters. That doesn't mean things are bad. By not putting up hoary stats Wilson never created the illusion of indispensibility; most think he can be adequately replaced by Greg McElroy. Coffee will be missed but Mark Ingram rushed for 728 yards and 12 TDs last year. And the receiving corps is in good shape as Jones was by far #1 and they are deep with new talent. The offensive line remains a concern, though, as just two starters—Mike Johnson and Drew Davis—return and all-Americans Antoine Caldwell and Andre Smith are lost. Even with adequate talent at the skill positions, everything will be harder with a less effective line, as they learned in last year's bowl game sans Smith.

Defense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #8    Adj. Rush Def: #2    Adj. Pass Def: #35
The defense won games for the team last year, and will have to do it even more this year. Seniors Brandon Deaderick (assuming his late August gunshot injury is no lasting issue) and Terrence Cody anchor the front three which last year spearheaded the 2nd best rushing defense in the nation. They lose team sack-leader Bobby Greenwood (5) but Lorenzo Washington, another senior, returns after starting in 2007. Look for Alabama to again have a top 5 rushing defense—perhaps even number one given the excellent support from the great linebacker corps. The Tide may have had the best 4-man crew in the country before Brandon Fanney (#3 tackler last year) was suspended and then transferred. Still, three starters are back: #1 tackler Rolando McClain (12 combined tackles for loss, 8 pass break-ups), sophomore Dont'a Hightower (#4 in tackles), and Cory Reamer. The Tide lost depth at the position, too, when several experienced linebackers either transferred (Prince Hall, Charlie Higginbotham), left the team due to injuries (Jester Hennings), or just plain moved on (Charlie Kirschman). The secondary loses interception leader (5) and #2 tackler Rashad Johnson but returning starters Javier Arenas, Kareem Jackson, and Justin Woodall combined to break up 25 passes and intercept 6. The passing defense was the "weak" part of the defense and should be stronger. Overall the defense returns 16 of its top 20 tacklers and after being in the top ten in '08 could be in the top five in scoring defense this season.

Kicking Game (2 RS):  P.J. Fitzgerald (41.1 average) returns as punter, and kicker Leigh Tiffen (20 of 29 FGs, 16 of 19 inside the 40) is back as well. Both are seniors.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #1
Nick Saban has had the best overall recruiting in the country the last two seasons when combined. His 2008 class was initially ranked #1 but has fallen to #3 due to all the attrition, either from non-qualifiers, baseball contracts, or leaving the team after redshirting. Some of that is happening this year, too, but so far the biggest names have been spared and the class ranks #1 in the country after SEC-mate LSU suffered some losses. There may or may not be a Julio Jones in this class but running back Trent Richardson is nearly as highly-touted. If Saban keeps this up—and is doing so cleanly so the school doesn't have to give up any wins from the current era—he'll have the team riding high in the rankings for years to come.

2009 Season Outlook  Alabama needed a good year after a disappointing and contentious 2007. Right from the start they got it: a neutral-field whipping of highly-rated Clemson in Atlanta. Several weeks later they faced pre-season #1 Georgia on the road and beat them down so far in the first half that even a 30 point 2nd half couldn't bring them back. After that, though, the offense lay dormant a lot of the time and the defense sealed wins over Kentucky (17-14), Mississippi (24-20), and LSU (27-21 in overtime). For the boosters a 36-0 crushing of Auburn was the sweetest moment and capped a perfect 12-0 slate. They put up a good fight against Florida in the SEC title game but lost 31-20. In the Sugar Bowl they didn't fight as hard and were dominated 31-17 without Andre Smith in the O-line.

Alabama 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	N	Virginia Tech	62%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Florida International	86%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	North Texas	100%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	74%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Kentucky	74%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Mississippi	47%	L
10/17	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	77%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	76%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Louisiana State	65%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	82%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	Tennessee-Chattanooga	100%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*Auburn	65%	W
Favored: 11-1   Projected: 9-3

The Crimson Tide have one main competitor in the SEC West: Mississippi. The teams are roughly even this year, but when they face off it will be in Oxford, not Tuscaloosa, and that makes all the difference. The rest of the schedule is no problem. Seven home games and just four true road games, plus two absolute 'gimmes' in Sun Belt slug North Texas and I-AA chump Chattanooga (2-9 last year) make for an 11-1 season being likely for a team this good. The opener in Atlanta against Virginia Tech is the next most likely loss (not very) and LSU and Auburn could put up a fight. The cumulative projection suggests they might be upset a couple of times over the course of the season. But unless the O-line is a really big problem they won't dip below 10-2 and I think 11-1 is a fair bet.

I wouldn't bet on going undefeated again, though. Even if they get past Mississippi which they could, the SEC has too much talent. Likely some other team would get them, somewhere. Bottom line, it looks like I'm giving Alabama a 47% chance of reaching the SEC championship game for a second straight year, which would inevitably be a rematch with Florida. Thus I don't see realistic national title aspirations for any SEC West team. Anything can happen, though, and facing UF would be one heck of an opportunity to move up in the polls...

2009 Pre-season Rankings - #7 California

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers team #7. To see the full list, click here.

7. California Golden Bears (Pac-10 #2)          Polls: AP #12, USA/Coaches #12

2008 Results:    Record: 9-4   Bowl: Beat Miami 24-17 (Emerald)   Poll finish: AP #26, USA #25
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #17    Success: #23    Overall: #17
California has their best team in year but still plays second fiddle in the Pac-10.

Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #20   Adj. Rush Yards: #31    Adj. Pass Yards: #71
Jahvid Best's 2008 season was like a compressed version of Reggie Bush's two years at USC. Early on he impressed with big plays, and all-purpose yardage, gaining mention in Heisman circles (mine at least). Then he finished the season with some monster performances and averaged an incredible 8.1 yards per carry. Best (1,580 yards, 15 TDs) returns and is the de facto #4 Heisman favorite behind the Big Three QBs. Speaking of QBs, Kevin Riley (1,360 yards, 14 TDs, 6 int) now has that job all to himself after sharing with the departed Nate Longshore (1,051 yards, 10 TDs, 4 int). The two top receivers from last year are back (Nyan Boateng and Verran Tucker) but tight end Cameron Morrah's 8 TD catches will be missed, especially since projected replacement Tad Smith tore his ACL this summer. The offensive line has three starters back but loses a couple of 3-year starters. Still, with Best and backup Shane Vereen (715 yards) carrying the ball production will be good.

Defense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #19    Adj. Rush Def: #39    Adj. Pass Def: #26
The 2009 Bear defense will be extra-strong up front and in back, with a soft spot in the middle. Essentially all three starters return on the defensive line, as only a couple of part-time starters are lost while Tyson Alualu (6 sacks), Derrick Hill, Cameron Jordan all return. The secondary also has all its starters back: corners Syd'Quan Thompson (4 int) and Darian Hagan (3 int)—who combined to break up 29 passes—rejoin safeties Marcus Ezeff (3 int) and Brett Johnson (2 int). In the middle, though, they lose three full-time starting linebackers, including #1 tackler Anthony Felder, #2 tackler Zack Follett (10.5 sacks, 12.5 tackles for loss), and Worrell Williams. But Eddie Young returns and Michael Mohammed was the #3 tackler and could be a superstar this year. In all the defense should be rock-solid up front and the secondary will be one of the best in the country, while at linebacker they will be weaker but Mohammed could be up for some national awards.

Kicking Game (2 RS):  Bryan Anger punted well as a freshman, averaging 43.1 yards per kick. He's back, as are Cal's two placekickers, Giorgio Tavecchio (9 of 13 FG) and David Seawright (5 of 7), also both sophomores. Tavecchio has the starting spot as placekicker and handles kickoffs.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #42
Cal coach Jeff Tedford has a strong reputation as a coach and as a developer of quarterback talent. He also recruits great talent at running back as it seems Cal always has another 1,000 yard rusher in the pipeline. This year's class isn't their best, but still is competitive for the Pac-10 and they didn't sign as many players this year. Running back Dasarte Yarnway from San Francisco and quarterback Allen Bridgeford of Mission Viejo are two blue chips who may carry on Cal's strong tradition at these positions.

2009 Season Outlook  The Bears had a rather undramatic 2008. They beat all the teams they were supposed to and no one else, save perhaps a defeat of Oregon that wasn't that big of an upset at home. The opener over Michigan State was at home, too, so no surprises there. They lost to USC and Oregon State on the road, and dropped a few surprising games such as Maryland and Arizona, also both on the road. In all they were 7-0 at home and 1-4 awy, the one road win being Washington State. They beat Miami as expected in the Emerald Bowl. At no time did they really threaten to win the Pac-10, and certainly not the national title. The main excitement of the year was watching Best break out as a major talent, while the typical quarterback confusion continued to put a damper on a strong season.

Cal 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Maryland	84%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Eastern Washington	89%	W
9/19	Sat	@	Minnesota	62%	W
9/26	Sat	@	*Oregon	56%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Southern California	47%	L
10/17	Sat	@	*UCLA	70%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Washington State	100%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Arizona State	62%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Oregon State	65%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Arizona	59%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Stanford	54%	W
12/5	Sat	@	*Washington	79%	W
Favored: 11-1   Projected: 8-4

This year the Bears will be in the running for both the Pac-10 and national title. If they get past Oregon in Eugene they'll have a showdown with USC at home, a game that's well within the range of possibility for them to win. The rest of the schedule is full of reliable wins until a possible trap at Stanford. The season might look a lot like 2004, with only a close loss to USC on the slate and an 11-1 record.

But Cal was so bad on the road last year that I can't see them going undefeated. They don't have the luxury of 7 home games this time around. Either they lose to USC or one of the road traps gets them. The conservative cumulative projection gives them 8 wins; that could happen if they lose all the close road games. I think it's going to be an exciting year for Cal football, with Best and the offense running smoothly while the defense shuts teams down. If they do lose to USC and the Trojans go undefeated, maybe this time they'll be selected for the Rose Bowl as they should have been in 2004.

2009 Pre-season Rankings - #8 Texas Tech, #9 Penn State

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #8 to #9. To see the full list, click here.

8. Texas Tech Red Raiders (Big Twelve #3; South #3)     Polls: AP #31, USA/Coaches #28

2008 Results:    Record: 11-2   Bowl: Lost to Mississippi 47-34 (Cotton)   Poll finish: AP #12, USA #12
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #6    Success: #7    Overall: #7
Texas Tech reloads without Harrell and Crabtree, but there's not much chance of them tying for first-place in the Big Twelve South this season.

Offense (4 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #5   Adj. Rush Yards: #92    Adj. Pass Yards: #1
Let's face it: Texas Tech's offense is a "system." Any offense that is essentially one-dimensional is a system in which the players who participate, if competent, will have huge stats in that dimension. So replacing players in a system is easier than replacing players in more standard offenses. That said, at certain times you find players for your system that are exceptional and in that case, replacement doesn't result in the same success. Two such hard-to-replace players are QB Graham Harrell and receiver Michael Crabtree. Harrell's 5,000+ yards and 45 touchdowns don't grow on trees; neither do Crabtree's 1,165 yards (1,962 in '07) and 19 TDs. Taylor Potts will no doubt put up huge numbers though he's hard-pressed to match Harrell's 70% completion rate, particularly without the likes of Crabtree and #3 receiver Eric Morris (9 TDs). Detron Lewis (913 yards) and Edward Britton (577) are the two top returning receivers, with Tramain Swindall (561) and starter Lyle Leong back, too, so Potts will have no shortage of quality targets on the field. But another issue is the offensive line, which returns just two starters—seniors Brandon Carter and Marlon Winn. Since the offense is what head coach Mike Leach concentrates on he always has great backups, and while few starters return, 18 2nd- and 3rd-stringers are back so the O-line should be okay anchored by the returning seniors. The running game, though a clear 2nd priority, will be in good shape with Baron Batch replacing starter Shannon Woods (716 yards, 12 TDs). Batch finished as the leading rusher last year (758 yards) and averaged more per carry than Woods (6.7 to 5.1). In summary, the offense will be good. It will resemble the Tech offenses prior to the Harrell-Crabtree years: explosive, but not dizzyingly so.

Defense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #32    Adj. Rush Def: #63    Adj. Pass Def: #27
The defense took a big step up last year, and that was as responsible for Tech's success last year as anything; after all, they had Harrell and Crabtree in 2007 and finished 8-4. This year the defense will help offset the inevitable decline in scoring. The defensive line might improve their mediocre rushing defense numbers but the pass rush will suffer as they lose Brandon Williams and backup McKinner Dixon who together had 22 of the team's 34 sacks. Colby Whitlock returns as does Rajon Henley who started full-time in '07 and in '08 until injured. Richard Jones, who replaced Henley in the lineup, is back as well. Linebacker is a strong point this year with all three starters—Brian Duncan (#1 tackler last year), Marlon Williams, and Bront Bird—returning. The secondary has been good recently and that should continue this year. The corner spot is solid with Jamar Wall (11 pass break-ups) and Brent Nickerson back, and LaRon Moore who started in the bowl game. Safety is a concern as they lose both Darcel McBath (7 interceptions) and Daniel Charbonnet (5 int). Without their takeaway artists opponents may score more points even if Tech's pass yardage defense remains the same or improves, but overall the defense has many strong areas and has plenty of depth.

Kicking Game (2 RS):  Tech's kicking game hasn't been great lately, but all of its components are back so it shouldn't get worse. Punter Jonathan LaCour (37.1 average, just 29.2 net) is back, while both kickers used last year—Donnie Carona (4 of 9 FG) and Matthew Williams (2 of 3)—return. Williams was the guy who made a halftime field goal and was asked to walk on the team. He'll handle the placekicking while Carona should handle kickoffs and compete for LaCour's punting job.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #28
Mike Leach is always good for a laugh at his press conferences or otherwise, when expounding on how young people should trade "computer schemes" when dating, or offering his idea for a Big Twelve tiebreaker—graduation rate. Last year's success may have contributed to the quality of this year's recruiting class. Nearly top 25 in the country, it's fourth in the Big Twelve, behind only Texas, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma. Pretty good for having to convince players to come to Lubbock as opposed to Texas' bigger city attractions. He always looks for good receivers, of course, and this year's best might be Eric Ward from Wichita Falls. If Leach can keep up the recruiting, then he'll have more luck maintaining the program at its current high level.

2009 Season Outlook  Last year I previewed the 2008 squad and wrote "Tech, with their strong offensive line, will take this game plan as far as it can go, but they can't quite take it all the way." It took a while before the 2008 Texas Tech Red Raiders proved they were for real. A tremendously easy pre-conference schedule made their blowout wins superflous, and even then letting Eastern Washington score 24 points, or beating Nevada just 35-19 didn't look like the hallmark of a serious national title contender. They throttled Kansas State, but who cared? They were 6-0 after they beat Nebraska, but they needed overtime—at home—to get it done. Tech 43, A&M 25? Not convincing. But around their 8th win, a 63-21 decimation of Kansas in Lawrence, people had to start paying attention. And the week after that they took the driver's seat by beating Texas 39-33 with the most famous play in Texas Tech football history: Harrell to Crabtree for a literal last-second touchdown and the win. One week later they backed it up by demolishing Oklahoma State 56-20. But then all the good will they'd built up for their national championship fund was wiped away in a 65-21 loss to Oklahoma. Had they kept it even reasonably close things might have been different, but their national title hopes, Big Twelve title hopes, and Harrell's Heisman hopes were gone. They limped through a near-loss against Baylor and predictably had a letdown against Mississippi in the Cotton Bowl.

Texas Tech 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	North Dakota	95%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Rice	75%	W
9/19	Sat	@	*Texas	26%	L
9/26	Sat	@	Houston	64%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	New Mexico	82%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Kansas State	74%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Nebraska	61%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Texas A&M	74%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Kansas	59%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Oklahoma State	46%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma	32%	L
11/28	Sat	@	*Baylor	54%	W
Favored: 9-3   Projected: 7-5

This year there will be no 10-0 start for the Raiders. By game three they will have a loss, as Texas gets revenge for having their season ruined. But after that it could be a while before the next loss. The Big Ten North teams haven't caught up yet and A&M won't beat them. They play Oklahoma State on the road which is a probable loss too, as is the Oklahoma game played anywhere. They close at Baylor which is a potential deathtrap. Let's face it, the team is going to see some decline. Most are saying it's going to be a lot sharper, but to me a collapse would mean a 7-5 season. The early games are easy and that's good; they can't expect to beat Texas, and the other early games will help their quarterback, receivers, and offensive line get the hang of things.

Though I rank the Raiders very high, their record doesn't change much whether you put them #9 or #19 or #29. A few games here and there, at most, and well within the range of 7-5 to 9-3. There are three games I'm sure they'll lose and a lot I'm sure they'll win, but considering all they lose on offense someone will upset them at some point. So this year I'll estimate that Texas Tech will end up 8-4; in other words, just about where they were before last year happened.

9. Penn State Nittany Lions (Big Ten #1)          Polls: AP #9, USA/Coaches #8

2008 Results:    Record: 11-2   Bowl: Lost to USC 38-24 (Rose)   Poll finish: AP #8, USA #8
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #5    Success: #11    Overall: #6
The Nittany Lions are back to try to win another Big Ten title for JoePa.

Offense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #8   Adj. Rush Yards: #23    Adj. Pass Yards: #47
The Lion offense's trademarks last year were third down conversions (6th best in country) and red zone scoring (also 6th best), two reasons why they scored so much on such pedestrian yardage. How will they do this year? The key players are back: Quarterback Darryl Clark (2,592 passing yards, 19 TDs, 6 int, 10 rushing TDs) and running back Evan Royster (1,236 yards, 12 TDs). The shortages are at receiver, where the top three each had over 40 receptions and 17 TDs combined. All three are gone. The tight end position is set with Mickey Shuler and Andrew Quarless back, but that's it. After allowing only 13 sacks last year the offensive line returns but two starters—Stefen Wisniewski and Dennis Lanolt—meaning they lose three-year starters A.Q. Shipley and Rich Ohrnberger and two-year starter Gerald Cadogan. The loss of three great receivers and three great linemen will no doubt slow down the dynamic duo.

Defense (4 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #6    Adj. Rush Def: #7    Adj. Pass Def: #80
The defense was like the offense; regardless of yardage, they ranked in the top ten in scoring defense. They certainly shut down the run, and their pass yardage numbers were hurt by the USC game and the fact that they didn't play strong passing teams (the figure is adjusted for competition). There is good new and bad news on defense this year. The defensive line returns two starters, Jared Odrick and Ollie Ogbu, at tackle. But experienced backup Abe Koroma is out this year for personal reasons, and both starting ends are gone including Aaron Maybin (12 sacks). At linebacker the Lions are stacked. #1 tackler Navorro Bowman is back along with #2 Josh Hull, but the real plus is the return from ACL injury of all-American Sean Lee. There's bad news here, too: projected starter Michael Mauti is out for the season with an ACL tear. The Lions have plenty of options to replace him even if they don't have Hull (who is backing up Lee) move to Mauti's slot. The secondary is pretty much all bad news as four starters are gone. Seniors A.J. Wallace and Knowledge Timmons take over at corner, with talented sophomore Drew Astorino filling a safety slot. Since teams will be very hard-pressed to run on the Lions (again), the secondary will be tested. Overall the Lions lose 10 of their top 14 tacklers. Expect a strong rushing defense again but a worse passing defense with fewer sacks. The scoring defense ranking will be much lower, but while the raw yardage numbers might get worse that #37 the adjusted yardage values may be about the same.

Kicking Game (1 RS): A big reason for Penn State's solid red zone scoring percentage was last year's kicker Kevin Kelly, who hit 20 of 24 field goals, including all 16 inside the 40. He'll be replaced by junior Colin Wagner or freshman Anthony Fera. Reliable punter Jeremy Boone (43 yard average) returns.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #20
At 82 Joe Paterno still has some recruiting magic left in him as the current signing class demonstrates. Years ago there was speculation that Paterno's age and uncertain retirement plans would turn off recruits. But now it seems that has passed and recruits are buying into the Penn State program and see Paterno as a living legend, more of a king than coach. His staff has taken over many functions as could be seen last year when he coached from the sky boxes for several games after hip surgery. But don't think he can't still motivate a team; look at the difference in Penn State' s performance in the first half of the Rose Bowl vs. the second, after JoePa gave them a pep talk about how to play "Penn State football"? Ahead of Bobby Bowden by one win (and possibly a lot more if Bowden has wins docked), Paterno is getting very near the end of his coaching days and some have suggested that he believes if he doesn't keep coaching he will pass away. Coaching keeps him going, quite literally. Of the at least half-dozen blue chips in the 2009 class, in-state offensive line recruit Eric Shrive may be the best. Another top recruit, DB Darrell Givens, did not qualify.

2009 Season Outlook  Penn State was pretty much unstoppable for most of the season. The early blowout of Oregon State (45-14) would grow in impressiveness each week as the Beavers beat USC and ended up 8-4. They struggled offensively at Ohio State, with the defense sparking the 13-6 win. They went into Iowa City 9-0 and left 9-1 after a last-second field goal, but closed out the season with strong wins despite being knocked from national title competition. The Rose Bowl was their only terrible game, or terrible half at least, as the Trojans jumped all over them 31-7. They made at least the final score respectable by the end.

Penn State 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Akron	76%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Syracuse	85%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Temple	74%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Iowa	54%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Illinois	54%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	Eastern Illinois	99%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Minnesota	63%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Michigan	63%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Northwestern	62%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Ohio State	57%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Indiana	85%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Michigan State	50%	W
Favored: 12-0   Projected: 8-4

This year's Penn State team is not as good as the 2008 model. But with the other main Big Ten team also fading that won't matter; they still have a decent chance of going undefeated. Which means that they'll very likely end up 11-1 again, maybe 10-2. Two possible pitfall games come early: Iowa at home and Illinois on the road. Make it past those and it should be smooth sailing to the final week; Ohio State at home should not be a concern as I think the Buckeyes are a bit overrated this year. The real key game for this season is in East Lansing. If they've made it 11-0 thus far they have about a 50/50 chance against the Spartans on the road. MSU is one of the few top Big Ten teams that will be better this year (along with Illinois; Iowa is about the same overall). At this point I have them favored in every game, but that could change as injuries unfold (and Penn State has already lost two good players in the summer as noted on defense).

The 8-4 cumulative projection is a worst-case. If they lose to Iowa, Illinois, Ohio State, and Michigan State the year will be a disappointment. I think the Lions will win the Big Ten again, going 11-1 or 10-2, with one of the losses coming somewhere unexpected like at Northwestern. It just seems to work out that way recently for Penn State. But it will keep Paterno ahead of Bowden, perhaps for good, and he will be able to retire knowing he's #1 on the all-time list.

2009 Pre-season Rankings - #10 to #13: Arizona, Oklahoma State, Iowa, North Carolina

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #10 to #13. To see the full list, click here.

10. Arizona Wildcats (Pac-10 #3)          Polls: AP #38, USA/Coaches #49

2008 Results:    Record: 8-5   Bowl: Beat BYU 31-21 (Las Vegas Bowl)   Poll finish: AP #36, USA #32
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #18    Success: #50    Overall: #21
Last year SportsRatings picked a big year for the Wildcats, and they met the low end of our expectations. This year they're picked even higher. Will they have a *real* breakthrough year in 2009?

Offense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #15   Adj. Rush Yards: #63    Adj. Pass Yards: #24
Arizona has talent back at receiver; Delashaun Dean and Terrell Turner combined for over 1,000 yards and 5 touchdowns, while tight end Rob Gronkowski is an NFL prospect who had 672 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. But it's not clear yet who is going to be throwing them the ball. Willie Tuitama, a four-year starter who had over 3,000 yards passing and 23 TDs last year, will no longer be behind center. The battle to replace him is between Matt Scott and Nick Foles; Scott can run, as his 188 yards on 23 carries (8.2 average) demonstrates, while Foles is a pocket-passer. Neither is standing out as exceptional so far to say the least, but coach Mike Stoops wants to declare one the starter soon. The running back position is solid: Nic Grigsby's 1,153 yards and 13 TDs insures that, and backup Keola Antolin had 10 touchdowns himself. But the offensive line has to grow up fast after losing three starters. Colin Baxter and Mike Diaz return, while Blake Kerley started the early games of '08 before an injury. Introducing a new quarterback behind a questionable line is this offense's challenge. Most of last year's 2nd and 3rd string is back for '09.

Defense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #36    Adj. Rush Def: #50    Adj. Pass Def: #20
The defense returns just six starters but the entire 2nd and 3rd string defense is back to fill the holes and add depth. Rushing defense was Arizona's weakness last year but it should improve dramatically due to a defensive line that returns almost everyone. Until Kaniela Tuipulotu's transfer to Hawaii they had everyone back 2-deep at all four positions. They still have starters Ricky Elmore, Earl Mitchell, and Brooks Reed (8 sacks), as well as Donald Horton who started part time last year. At linebacker they lose two starters including #1 tackler Ronnie Palmer, but Xavier Kelley returns and Sterling Lewis actually had more tackles than Kelley in '08 despite being a backup. The secondary returns Cam Nelson and Devin Ross (13 passes broken up, 3 interceptions) but also loses two key players. Overall the rushing defense should improve and the passing defense should still be sound. The defense loses three of its top four tacklers but only four of the top twenty, so depth of experience is no problem whatsoever. Stoops has called this his strongest defense yet.

Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Keenan Crier (an excellent 43.9 average) returns but kicker Jason Bondzio (14 of 16 field goals) is gone. Sophomore Alex Zendejas, nephew of NFL placekicker Tony Zendejas, is expected to take over.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #40
Mike Stoops has been on the hot seat at Arizona for a while, trying to turn around a team that hit rock-bottom in 2002. Last year was the team's first winning season in his tenure, and while the bowl win may have forestalled talk of replacement he'll have to follow it up. Adding distraction, Stoops is currently going through a divorce. This year's recruiting class isn't bad; like last year's class it sits in the middle of the pack in the Pac-10. The consensus blue chip of the group is Adam Hall, a wide receiver/defensive back from Tucson. Stoops also signed a number of other high-level players from California.

2009 Season Outlook  Last season started with high expectations and almost burned out. The opening 70-0 win over Idaho was good for showing that both the offense and defense were functioning well, and they beat Toledo 41-16. But the first road trip ended with a shocking 36-28 loss to New Mexico. The Wildcats had counted on going into the Pac-10 season undefeated and already there were grumblings and Stoops' seat was the hottest it had been. Wins over UCLA and Washington put them at 4-1, but again they were upset by Stanford 24-23. A big win over Cal helped, and they played USC close but couldn't do much on offense in a 17-10 loss. Two more close losses to the Oregon teams put them at 6-5 with Arizona State left; luckily they won convincingly, 31-10, and headed to meet BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl, which they also won impressively 31-21. It's hard to judge the season in retrospect. On one hand all of the team's losses were close; on the other hand, a few were to teams they should have beaten in the first place. Last year's minimum win margin was 10 points; their maximum loss margin was also 10 points.

Arizona 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Central Michigan	70%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Northern Arizona	89%	W
9/19	Sat	@	Iowa	47%	L
9/26	Sat	@	*Oregon State	52%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Washington	74%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	55%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*UCLA	73%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Washington State	94%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*California	41%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Oregon	57%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*Arizona State	56%	W
12/5	Sat	@	*Southern California	33%	L
Favored: 9-3   Projected: 7-5

This year's first big test comes at Iowa. If Arizona has a loss before that, then we'll know the season isn't going to be anything special. But that game and the one that follows it (at Oregon State) will set the expectations for the rest of the year. They should split the two, probably losing at Iowa. Rivals called the Iowa game "a battle between a mid-level Pac-10 team vs.[sic] a mid-level Big Ten team" which undersells both teams dramatically I think. If Arizona is 4-0 to start the season, though, fans should be very excited.

There are challenges all year long in the improved Pac-10. Beating Stanford at home will take some effort, as will Oregon. I don't expect wins at Cal or USC of course, but overall a 9-3 finish is possible. I'm giving them more close wins (4) than close losses (1) so the cumulative projection of 7-5 may come true—particularly if the Wildcats play like last year and lose the tight games, or if the quarterback(s) can't be whipped into shape which is a major potential pitfull. Still, this could be Arizona's best team in a long time and hopefully they can exceed last year's win tally.

11. Oklahoma State Cowboys (Big Twelve #4; South #4)     Polls: AP #9, USA/Coaches #11

2008 Results:    Record: 9-4   Bowl: Lost to Oregon 42-31 (Holiday)   Poll finish: AP #16, USA #18
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #15    Success: #37    Overall: #15
The top ten Cowboys are stuck in a division with two top five teams. It does mean, however, that they start the year controlling their own destiny to the national championship...

Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #10   Adj. Rush Yards: #12    Adj. Pass Yards: #34
What more can be written about Oklahoma State's dynamic trio of quarterback Zac Robinson (65%, 3,064 yards, 25 TDs, 10 int; 562 rushing yards, 8 TDs), receiver Dez Bryant (1,480 yards, 19 TDs, 2 punt return TDs), and running back Kendall Hunter (1,555 yards 16 TDs)? No more comparisons between this trio and the Gundy/Dykes/Sanders machine in 1988: this group is better. Hunter is no Barry Sanders but the other two are superior, with Robinson's running and Bryant's punt returns giving them the edge, and no one of them overshadows the others the way Sanders did in '88. Oklahoma State might not have the #1 offense in the land this year like the '88 group did, but they'll be close. What could hold them back is the lack of a strong #2 receiver. Starter DeMarcus Conner returns but had just 3 receptions last year; Brandon Pettigrew and Damian Davis depart, and Bo Bowling is likely to miss the season after felony drug charges were brought against him early this year for possession of Xanax and steroids. The offensive line is sturdy with three senior starters back including Russell Okung; they allowed just 16 sacks last year and with Hunter, Robinson, and Keith Toston (9 TDs) running the ball the rushing offense will be even stronger than last year.

Defense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #41    Adj. Rush Def: #47    Adj. Pass Def: #101
The defense should be decent everywhere except the secondary. There, only Perrish Cox returns to a unit that was the defense's weak spot last year. Three starters that combined for 24 broken-up passes are gone. At linebacker the Cowboys lost Orie Lemon, the team's #2 tackler, to a fall camp knee injury but #1 tackler Andre Sexton and Patrick Lavine return. The defensive line isn't doing bad with starters Derek Burton and Ugo Chinasa back. If the secondary comes together the defense do better than their #41 finish from '08. In '89, the defense was #75 out of 105 teams, one reason why that team couldn't win the big games. This defense should be much better than that one, though having a passing defense weakness in the Big Twelve is a huge concern.

Kicking Game (1 RS): Kicker Dan Bailey was 65 of 65 on extra points and on field goals an excellent 15 of 19, with two misses outside the 50. He's back but punter Matt Fodge (42.9 average) has to be replaced, probably by redshirt freshman Quinn Sharp.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #39
After ranking in the top 25 last year and in the top half of the Big Twelve this year's recruiting class is in the lower half, but it's not outside the normal range of fluctuations, especially since they recruited fewer players this time around. Among the top blue chips are running backs Dexter Pratt and Jeremy Smith, so head coach Mike "I'm a Man" Gundy should be set at that position for some time.

2009 Season Outlook  Another good comparison to the 1988 squad, besides the offensive trio, was the fact that both team beat everybody except the really good teams. In 1988 the Cowboys beat two decent teams, Colorado and Wyoming but lost to the two traditional powers Oklahoma and Nebraska. The Oklahoma game was close; Nebraska was not (though the 63-42 final score made it look like a battle). In 2008 the Cowboys had a huge win over Missouri, but the Tigers weren't the monster they looked like at the time. The Cowboys lost to Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma, the three teams that tied for the Big Twelve South lead. The Texas game was close; the other two were not. Paired in a bowl game against Oregon State they lost 42-31, leaving them 1-4 against top 25 teams. They weren't upset by any non-ranked teams, though, just like the '88 squad.

OK State 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Georgia	58%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Houston	70%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Rice	74%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	Grambling State	100%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	66%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Missouri	61%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Baylor	52%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Texas	30%	L
11/7	Sat	@	*Iowa State	68%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Texas Tech	52%	W
11/19	Thu	vs.	*Colorado	72%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*Oklahoma	24%	L
Favored: 10-2   Projected: 7-5

This year will look a lot like 1988. Easy wins (for the most part) over conference and non-conference foes, but losses to the traditional dominant powers including rival Oklahoma. The offense will be super-charged and the defense at times will give up a lot of points. The difference will be that the defense should be much better than in 1988, and some of the conference wins could be tight. Baylor and Texas Tech, in particular, will be tough but I forsee wins for the Cowboys. And the opener against Georgia is more ambitious than anything on the '88 slate, but considering that OK State is at home and has their key trio back while the Bulldogs lose their main duo I have to take the Cowboys handily.

The cumulative projection is 7-5, accounting for upsets. But seeing how this team didn't underestimate anyone last year I don't think they'll be upset by anyone this year either. If they lose it will be because a team is better than them. If Baylor and Texas Tech beat them, those teams will finish with better records and rankings than the Cowboys. But I think that 10-2 is right for this team. Not getting upset, but not getting any upsets, either, just like 1988.

12. Iowa Hawkeyes (Big Ten #2)          Polls: AP #22, USA/Coaches #21

2008 Results:    Record: 9-4   Bowl: Beat S. Carolina 31-10 (Outback)   Poll finish: AP #20, USA #20
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #16    Success: #30    Overall: #16
Iowa loses Doak Walker winner Shonn Greene, but could they be just as good this year?

Offense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #32   Adj. Rush Yards: #22    Adj. Pass Yards: #99
Shonn Greene's 1,850 yards and 20 touchdowns drove Iowa's offense last year. Ricky Stanzi's 1,956 passing yards and 14 TDs were more of a distraction to opposing defenses than anything else. But Stanzi improved after taking over from Jake Christiansen, making fewer mistakes later in the year, and he'll need to step things up with Greene's absence. Top receiver Derrell Johnson-Koulianos is back though he's been demoted to 2nd string, perhaps to light a fire under him. They lose Brandon Myers at tight end but Tony Moeaki, potentially the team's best player, might finally be injury-free this season (cross your fingers). Taking over for Greene is the very capable Jewel Hampton (7 TDs), who suffered a knee injury during the summer and will be out for the season. If he's healthy he could easily go over 1,000 yards given his blockers: fullback Brett Morse is back, and three starters return on the line though two of them—Julian Vandervelde (injury) and Kyle Calloway (suspension)—will miss the first game (Northern Iowa). Brian Bulaga is the acknowledged star at left tackle, and ex-starter Dace Richardson will be a backup after returning from a knee injury so the running game should excel again at Iowa. The line will be strong but without Hampton Paki O'Meara is listed as the starter (just like last year), and though the Hawks still have talent at running back losing Hampton hurts.

Defense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #7    Adj. Rush Def: #9    Adj. Pass Def: #46
While Greene kept the offense moving, it was the defense that really won games for the Hawkeyes in '08. The defensive line, in particular, was effective in stuffing the run thus forcing teams to pass, after which  the defense would come up with a timely interception. The heart of the front four—tackles Mitch King and Matt Kroul—is gone. Adrian Clayborn and Christian Ballard return, but the rushing defense will undoubtedly fall outside the top ten. However, teams attempting to exploit any weakness in the middle will run smack into one of the nation's best linebacker corps. Pat Angerer (#1 tackler, 5 interceptions), Jeremiha Hunter (#2 tackler), and A.J. Edds all return for the Hawks; backup Jacody Coleman recently transferred. The secondary returns three starters as well: Amari Spievey (4 int), Tyler Sash (5 int), and Brett Greenwood (2 int), though Jordan Bernstine, expected to move in at corner, was lost to injury in fall camp. The Hawkeyes return their top four tacklers and 13 of the top 17 so they may be able to remain one of the top ten scoring defenses despite suffering a few key losses.

Kicking Game (2 RS):  Punter Ryan Donahue (41.6 average) is back, and both of the placekickers the Hawks used—Trent Mossbrucker (13 of 15 FGs) and Daniel Murray (6 of 9)—return. Murray had the game-winner against Penn State and is listed as the starter for this year.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #90
Head coach Kirk Ferentz was on a "hot seat," of sorts, heading into this season. It's hard to imagine Hawk fans kicking him out, but the last few years were disappointing, and given his salary—$3 million a year—more was expected. They got more last season and the hot seat cooled. Off-season problems continue to cause distraction, though, with Ferentz' son James once again arrested for public intoxication with a number of other players. Recruiting is another issue. Iowa's recruiting classes have been up and down under Ferentz, with this year's class ranking at the bottom of the Big Ten. A few years ago Iowa had one of the best classes in the Big Ten, and last year's was middle of the pack. As Iowa strives to be a top 25 team year in and year out, having only the occasional top 25 class is a concern, and having a class similar to that of a non-BCS conference team is troublesome. The Hawkeyes did pick up two consensus blue chips this year, both in-state: running back Brandon Wegher and wide receiver Keenan Davis.

2009 Season Outlook  Iowa fans thought it was going to be another disappointing year. The Hawkeyes were 3-3 after losing three straight. Opening blowouts of I-AA Maine and Sun Belt cupcake Florida International were fun, and beating Iowa State soothed the boosters. But now it looked like the season was falling apart. SportsRatings' Strength power rating, thought, had Iowa in the top 25 at this point. How could that be? The answer was that Pittsburgh, Northwestern, and Michigan State were all good teams, and Iowa lost two of those on the road, and all three by a combined 9 points. As it turned out the Hawks got even better, winning five of their last six games including a 24-23 win over previously undefeated Penn State and crushing Minnesota 55-0. They won their bowl game 31-10 over South Carolina. In retrospect (and in theory) they were three touchdowns and a field goal away from a 12-0 season.

Iowa 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Northern Iowa	73%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Iowa State	67%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Arizona	52%	W
9/26	Sat	@	*Penn State	45%	L
10/3	Sat	vs.	Arkansas State	77%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Michigan	69%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Wisconsin	60%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Michigan State	49%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Indiana	84%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Northwestern	68%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Ohio State	49%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Minnesota	62%	W
Favored: 9-3   Projected: 8-4

The Hawks might be even fewer than 12 points away from being undefeated in 2009. Of the three losses designated here, two barely fall into the "L" column due to being a road games. The other—Penn State—should still be a close contest and they'd be favored at home. They also host Arizona, a game they should win but is by no means a guarantee.

Other than that the season should be pretty clear cut and full of wins. Northern Iowa is a tough FCS team and two O-line starters may be absent, but there should be no problem at home. Iowa State has been a perennial tough rivalry game lately, especially on the road, but again Iowa should win. After Arizona and Penn State they have Arkansas State, Michigan at home, and Wisconsin on the road, only the latter should present a challenge. Indiana, Northwestern, and Minnesota at home should all be wins, too. Before losing Hampton I had them 10-2 with a shot at 11-1; now the cumulative projection is precariously close to 7-5. A lot depends on finding a solid back; they had the same problem at the beginning of last season and came up with Greene. If they can pull another one out of their hat this year it could be a very exciting season.

13. North Carolina Tar Heels (ACC #1; Coastal #1)     Polls: AP #21, USA/Coaches #20

2008 Results:    Record: 8-5   Bowl: Lost to West Virginia 31-30 (Car Care)   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #22    Success: #22    Overall: #22
Butch Davis looks to have a true breakout year with the Tar Heels.

Offense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #27   Adj. Rush Yards: #61    Adj. Pass Yards: #85
Quarterback T.J. Yates was injured against Virginia Tech and missed the middle of the season, but he started strong and finished strong to have an 11 to 4 TD to INT ratio while completing 60% of his passes. Cameron Sexton, who filled in during his absence to lead in yardage, is gone but Yates is back. The challenge this year is not only staying healthy but replacing their top three receivers including the amazing Hakeem Nicks (1,222 yards, 12 TDs) and multi-faceted Brandon Tate whose season was cut short last year. Greg Little (146 yards, 0 TDs) returns and the group may be dependent on newcomers. The running game is in better shape with the three top backs returning including Shaun Draughn (866 yards) and Little (339), who split time at tailback, and #3 Ryan Houston who had 8 touchdowns. The offensive line returns three starters, Kyle Jolley, Lowell Dyer, and Alan Pelc. Aaron Stahl, who started in '07 and half-time in '08, didn't return to the team though he had eligibility remaining. The offense should be better at running the ball but the passing game needs some young and green receivers to step up.

Defense (9 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #26    Adj. Rush Def: #24    Adj. Pass Def: #111
Look for the UNC defense to have another great year against the run, possibly even a top ten rankings. All four starters return on the defensive line: ends Robert Quinn and E.J. Wilson are back with tackles Cam Thomas and Marvin Austin. Backing them up are starting linebackers Quan Sturdivant, the team's #1 tackler and Bruce Carter (5 sacks). They do lose #2 tackler Mask Paschal, but with six of the front seven returning things look good. The secondary wasn't great last year but this area should improve as well. Both starting corners—Kendrick Burney (3 int) and Jordan Hemby—are back, though the latter will play behind Charles Brown who gets his starting job from '07 back. At safety they lose Trimane Goddard (7 interceptions) and backup Matt Merletti but starter Deunta Williams (3 int) returns. They might not finish in the top ten in interceptions again this year but their yardage numbers will be markedly better. Overall the defense should be excellent with 16 of the top 20 tacklers back.

Kicking Game (1 RS): The 'Heels lose punter Terrance Brown (39.5 average); 6' 7" Grant Shallock is set to replace him. Kickers Casey Barth and Jay Wooten combined for 14 of 21 field goals. Barth is back while Wooten has tranferred to South Carolina.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #4
Butch Davis is one of the few coaches who is seemingly universally respected as a head coach, recruiter, and trustworthy program-builder. A lot of this has to do with his success at Miami while under the constraints of NCAA sanctions. His tenure at North Carolina has been good so far but not without stumbles and even if the team doesn't break through in his third season the future looks good. Davis' 2009 recruiting class is one of the very best in the nation, following a 2008 class that was just outside the top 25. This year the Tar Heels signed a dozen consensus blue chip players, including one of the nation's top recruits in defensive end Donte Moss who chose to stay in-state. Unfortunately Moss was recently involved in a fight with Hunter Furr, a much lower-ranked in-state recruit. Charges were filed, then dropped, and Davis said he disciplined both players who remain on the squad.

2009 Season Outlook  Last year of North Carolina I wrote "I think they'll do a whole lot better, turning their 4-8 record into 8-4." That prediction came true, but in starts and fits as injuries shook up the team early on. The Heels unexpectedly struggled against McNeese State before having an equally unexpected easy time in beating Rutgers. Against Virginia Tech things started to go wrong. Holding the lead, Yates was knocked out of the game and it was the difference as UNC lost 20-17. Sexton guided them to wins over Miami and UConn. Brandon Tate was lost for the year against Notre Dame, in which the defense spurred a comeback. After an overtime loss to Virginia strong wins over Boston College and Georgia Tech made them 7-2 and put them in the ever-rotating driver's seat position in the ACC. But losses to Maryland and N.C. State pushed them aside. Still, they made it to 8-4, though it didn't seem like such a great year after all the uncertainty and injury along the way. WIth Yates back at full strength the Tar Heels almost knocked off Pat White and West Virginia. Nicks had several incredible catches but UNC came up just short, 31-30.

UNC 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Citadel	93%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Connecticut	64%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	East Carolina	66%	W
9/26	Sat	@	*Georgia Tech	49%	L
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Virginia	70%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	Georgia Southern	87%	W
10/22	Thu	vs.	*Florida State	55%	W
10/29	Thu	@	*Virginia Tech	50%	L
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Duke	75%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Miami (Florida)	59%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Boston College	56%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*North Carolina State	61%	W
Favored: 10-2   Projected: 8-4

Not only are the Tar Heels the best team in the ACC this year—Virginia Tech included—they also have a kind schedule featuring two FCS (I-AA) teams and seven home games. There are maybe four tough games on their slate; lose them all and the cumulative projection of 8-4 comes true and the season is no better than last year's. But they should beat FSU at home and Boston College on the road, leaving the road games—Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech—in question. Each is a tossup I have them narrowly losing. Without a strong receiving corps at the start of the year—though this year's great recruits may be an answer—UNC will probably not go undefeated or 11-1; I'll give them 10-2 this year but beating Virginia Tech would give them an ACC championship game berth. If they get there they should win that, too, and go to a BCS bowl in Davis' third year. Should they luck out and win both their toughest games things would get really interesting, and Davis' stellar reputation would get yet another boost.

2009 Pre-season Rankings - #14 to #16: TCU, Stanford, Boise State

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #14 to #16. To see the full list, click here.

14. TCU Horned Frogs (Mountain West #1)     Polls: AP #17, USA/Coaches #17

2008 Results:    Record: 11-2   Bowl: Beat Boise State 17-16 (Poinsettia)   Poll finish: AP #7, USA #7
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #7    Success: #10    Overall: #9
TCU won't sneak up on anybody this year, and Oklahoma's not on the schedule.

Offense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #28   Adj. Rush Yards: #18    Adj. Pass Yards: #68
Andy Dalton improved into a consistent quarterback for the Frogs last year with 11 TDs and just 5 interceptions while still rushing for 432 yards and 8 touchdowns. Leading receiver Jimmy Young, just shy of 1,000 yards last year, returns, but that's almost it for pure starters at the skill positions. Receiver Bart Johnson started some games, as did running backs Joseph Turner (#1 gainer at 577, 11 TDs) and Ryan Christian (#2 in receptions with 30), and they're all back so there is talent to work with. The offensive line returns Marcus Cannon (aptly named at 350 lbs.) and Marshall Newhouse, as well as Kyle Dooley who started several games before being injured last year. The ground game was their strength last year and with six of the top seven gainers back it should be strong again if the O-line comes through.

Defense (4 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #3    Adj. Rush Def: #1    Adj. Pass Def: #5
The real strength of the team last season was defense. With one of the very best in the country, the Horned Frogs were tops in adjusted rushing defense and not far behind in passing. The former, however, is likely to suffer as only one starter returns in the front six of the 4-2-5. The D-line loses three starters who had a total of 10.5 sacks but Jerry Hughes who had 15 sacks and forced six fumbles returns (the team had 43 sacks total). They lose both starting linebackers, #1 tackler Jason Phillips and #3 Robert Henson, but backup Darryl Washington was #4 with 63 tackles. The 5-man secondary loses Stephen Hodge and Steven Coleman (3 int) but with safety Tejay Johnson and corners Rafael Priest and Nick Sanders they're in good shape; the three combined to break up 32 passes last year. Overall, with the top three tacklers gone and so many missing up front, TCU will be hard-pressed to repeat their extraordinary 2008 performance, but the backups are capable and they could still have a top ten defense.

Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter Anson Kelton (41.3 average) returns as does kicker Ross Evans, who hit 16 of 20 field goals but strangely missed 6 extra points.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #53
Gary Patterson has coached the team since 2001 and the Frogs have had a great decade, winning 10 or more games five times. TCU's 2009 class ranks near the top of the Mountain West, right up there with BYU and Utah and a big step up from last year's class. Malcolm Williams, a juco defensive back who first signed with Oklahoma, is expected to start at safety.

2009 Season Outlook  Some non-BCS teams go through phases where no matter how good they are they aren't taken seriously. Only by the end of the year are college football fans saying "Yeah, that team is tough!" Last year was such a year for TCU. They won four games and barely had cracked the top 25 when they lost to Oklahoma 35-7. This turned out to be a season-low in points for Oklahoma (until the Florida game), and in Norman, too. The Frogs won two more games and despite being 6-1 with a loss to the former #1 team they were unranked. But beating BYU started to change things. They won convincingly, 32-7, and soon they were 9-1 and ranked #12. They lost at Utah 13-10 after leading for 99% of the game and fell to #15. After wins over Air Force and the Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl their résumé was fantastic: 11-2 with wins over the #11 and #25 team with losses only to the #2 and #5 teams. They finished 7th in the final AP poll.

TCU 2009 schedule & forecast
9/12	Sat	@	Virginia	63%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Texas State	91%	W
9/26	Sat	@	Clemson	51%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	Southern Methodist	84%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Air Force	67%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Colorado State	80%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*BYU	60%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*UNLV	78%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*San Diego State	81%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Utah	60%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Wyoming	78%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	*New Mexico	80%	W
Favored: 12-0   Projected: 9-3

TCU should be the top BCS-buster this year. A trip to Clemson in week 4 (their 3rd game) is their main obstacle along the way and a game that is essentially a tossup. After that their toughest assignments are BYU (on the road) and Utah (at home). Both Utah and BYU will be a lot worse this year, I believe. In fact, all three are worse than last year but TCU is still a top 25 and potential top ten team; Utah might be a top 25 team at best, and BYU probably won't be. So even those two games should be heavily in TCU's court.

I don't know if I think the Frogs can do it. The cumulative projection gives them a strong 9 wins, which is akin to saying they'll lose their three toughest games. I don't think that will happen, but with the offensive and defensive lines both less effective than they were last year I'm not sure they can make it the whole year without a misstep. I said the same about Utah last year but they did it—barely. TCU will probably go 11-1 this year. Even 10-2 seems low for how much better than their competition they should be. But regardless, people should be paying attention to this team from week one, not jumping on the bandwagon around bowl time. Make that week two, since they don't play on week one. TCU fans will have to watch football the first week dying to see their team in action. Have patience!

15. Stanford Cardinal (Pac-10 #4)       Polls: AP NR, USA/Coaches NR

2008 Results:    Record: 5-7   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #43    Success: #56    Overall: #46
Stanford could be the biggest surprise team of 2009 after not getting a single vote in either pre-season poll.

Offense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #31   Adj. Rush Yards: #19    Adj. Pass Yards: #88
Stanford had everything figured out on offense except who was going to play quarterback. Tavita Pritchard was less-than-spectacular last year with 10 TDs and 13 interceptions. Backup Alex Loukas is a better runner but played little last year and tore his ACL in the spring; he'll miss at least three games, maybe six. That leaves redshirt freshman Andrew Luck, an excellent passer who has been named the starter. He'll have leading receivers Ryan Whalen and Doug Baldwin back as the Cardinal hope to get more from their passing game. Last year's offensive success was due almost completely to the run, where Toby Gerhart had 1,136 yards and 15 touchdowns. After baseball threatened to draft him right off the team he decided to return, which is good because they lose #2 back Anthony Kimble (6 TDs). Starting fullback Owen Marecic returns along with three starters on the offensive line, and Allen Smith who started in 2006 is hoping to finally be back some time this season after being granted a 6th year. In all, if the Cardinal get good quarterback play they'll have a terrific offense as most of the 2nd string is back this year, too.

Defense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #66    Adj. Rush Def: #81    Adj. Pass Def: #76
The defense was last year's problem, but a lot of it should be solved. Seven positions are reloaded with  starters and practically all of last year's 2nd string is back, so players with experience fill almost every slot. Up front they lose just one starter, with seniors Erik Lorig and Ekom Udofia returning with Sione Fua and part-time starter Matthew Masifilo. At linebacker Clinton Snyder return while two others—Chike Amajoyi and Nick Macaluso—with experience fill the other slots. Finally the secondary loses just one starter, with Kris Evans, Sean Wiser, and #1 tackler Bo McNally back, plus 2007 starter Austin Yancy and former wide receiver Richard Sherman all in the mix. With 18 of their top 21 tacklers back Stanford should see big improvement over their lackluster 2008 numbers.

Kicking Game (1 RS):  Punter David Green averaged a respectable 39.9 yards per kick but a great 37.7 net; he's back, but kicker Aaron Zagory (14 of 17 FG) is gone. Either kickoff handler Travis Golia or freshman Nate Whitaker will take over.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #17
Stanford's 2009 recruiting class was a stunner, finishing 3rd only to the Los Angeles-area schools in the Pac 10. Coach Jim Harbough's first two classes had been good, but not this good. Loaded with blue chips, a class like this can provide a foundation for future success. Linebacker Shayne Skov is a near-consensus super blue-chip at linebacker, perhaps the class of this class, though there are many others just as touted or nearly so. Harbough has brought quite a bit of enthusiasm to Stanford and the team seems pumped up to have a great year. He's also hinted at having some players play both offense and defense this year.

2009 Season Outlook  Last year was up and down, which has been typical of Stanford's last several (losing) seasons. But at least this year there were maybe a few more "ups" than normal. They beat Oregon State in the opener, a feat that looked more impressive as the season went on, just as the loss to TCU looked less disappointing when that team finished 11-2. They just slipped past Washington, and let Notre Dame slip past them. Their best win was an upset of Arizona, 24-23, at which point they were 4-3. But they gave up close games to UCLA and Oregon, and Washington State (58-0) was the last team they beat. They showed a remarkable ability to play up or down to their competition, beating only one team by more than 13 and losing to USC by just 21.

Stanford 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	@	*Washington State	85%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Wake Forest	54%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	San Jose State	81%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Washington	79%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*UCLA	70%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Oregon State	50%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Arizona	45%	L
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	61%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Oregon	55%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Southern California	31%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*California	46%	L
11/28	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	55%	W
Favored: 9-3   Projected: 7-5

This year should be Stanford's best season since 2001 when they went 9-3 in the regular season. Some have written that the Cardinal could start 5-0; I think they could start 9-0. That's pushing it a bit, as Wake Forest, Oregon State, Arizona, and Oregon will be tough challenges. But only USC looks unbeatable from my vantage point, and only Arizona and Cal look like losses with Oregon State a true tossup. Even much-improved Notre Dame has to come to Palo Alto for a showdown of turnaround teams that could be one of the biggest games of the year if both have lived up to my expectations for them.

The Cardinal have some drawbacks, too. The quarterback play is still unproved, despite Luck's great spring game performance. The defense will be a lot better but let's face it, it sucked last year. And will the team be able to handle success without falling prey to upset? They have to get over the habit of playing down to their competition. The cumulative projection of 7-5 might be a safer bet. It still gets them to a bowl game, and they still have a turnaround year with their first winning season since 2001. But I'm pretty confident they'll do better than that. The key game to watch early on is Wake Forest. If they can win on the road then they'll have a great year, considering that they have seven home games this year and might win all of those. If they're 9-0 going into the USC game it will be the biggest thing to happen in Stanford football since the back to back Rose Bowl wins of '70 and '71. Can it happen?

16. Boise State Broncos (WAC #1)          Polls: AP #14, USA/Coaches #16

2008 Results:    Record: 12-1   Bowl: Lost to TCU 17-16 (Poinsettia)   Poll finish: AP #11, USA #13
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #14    Success: #9    Overall: #11
Boise State makes another run at a WAC title...and maybe another BCS bowl game.

Offense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #25   Adj. Rush Yards: #80    Adj. Pass Yards: #11
By any measure Kellen Moore had a successful year in 2008 as quarterback of the Boise State Broncos. He completed 69% of his passes for close to 3,500 yards and 25 touchdowns with 10 interceptions. By the stardards of being a freshman and doing all that? He was phenomenal. Now all Moore has to do is avoid a sophomore slump. His two top receivers (Jeremy Childs and Vinny Perretta) are gone but Austin Pettis (567 yards, 9 TDs, #2 in receptions with 49) is back and the tight end slot will again be shared by Kyle Efaw and Tommy Gallarda. Three starters return on an offensive line that allowed just 13 sacks. The biggest change will be at running back, where leading rusher, three-year starter, and hook-and-ladder recipient Ian Johnson has moved on. Johnson's role on the team was diminished last year but he still managed 766 yards and 13 touchdowns. #2 back Jeremy Avery (614 yards) will take over and should do fine, but I bet he doesn't propose to a cheerleader on national tv.

Defense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #9    Adj. Rush Def: #51    Adj. Pass Def: #19
Boise State's defense was 12th in red zone defense and 6th in preventing 4th down conversions. They were also 5th in interceptions. These figures explain how a team with an average rushing defense and barely a top 20 passing defense could have a top ten scoring defense. The team is moving to a 4-2-5 scheme to further defend against the spread but only two starters return out of a front six so critical against the run. Ryan Winterswyk is the only starter back on the line and Derrell Acrey the only linebacker, and Acrey might not start in the 2-linebacker model. There will be three starters among the five D-backs, led by #1 tackler Jeron Johnson, corners Kyle Wilson (5 interceptions) and Brandyn Thompson (4 int), while George Iloka is the team's #2 returning tackler and had 4 interceptions. Those four should start the 4-back spots while the nickel slot is up for grabs. The secondary will probably be better than last year while the defense could be weaker up front.

Kicking Game (2 RS): Kyle Brotzman proved to be a much better punter than kicker as he took on both chores, averaging 45.8 yards per punt but making only 17 of 26 field goals. He was 50 of 50 in extra points, to be fair. He's back for his junior season with the Broncos.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #67
Head coach Chris Peterson has carried on the winning tradition that Dan Hawkins established before him. How do they do it? Boise State doesn't get the best recruits by a long shot, so coaching and player development is certainly a factor. Playing in the WAC doesn't hurt, either; the Broncos are the definition of a big fish in a small pond many years. That's been made clear before, in the several seasons where Boise's sole loss was to a mid-level BCS conference team. They've had years where they were a legitimate power, though, such as in 2006 when they beat Oklahoma and last year when they nearly beat TCU, another non-BCS upstart. The Broncos' recruiting is generally the best in the WAC, not every year but when sampled over many seasons. Still, it doesn't explain why the program is so successful. Did Hawkins establish such a strong program that it can sustain itself? Or was Peterson the main factor when he was offensive coordinator before taking over as coach? Or maybe it's the blue turf. Who knows. This year's most important recruit may turn out to be juco Winston Venable who could step right into the nickel spot on the defensive secondary.

2009 Season Outlook  I though last year would be one of the years where Boise State isn't really that good but has a great record. Instead it was the other kind of Bronco season, where the team actually is good and has a great record. The key game, of course, was Oregon. The Broncos upset the Ducks in Eugene and at least by the end of the season that was respect-worthy. The rest of their season, unlike the mediocre-with-great-record squads, was not littered with close calls. After the Oregon game they won every game by at least 17 points, and two by a total of 100 points. Paired in the Poinsettia Bowl with another great non-BCS team, they lost a tight game to TCU 17-16 that gave them their only loss.

Boise State 2009 schedule & forecast
9/3	Thu	vs.	Oregon	55%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Miami (Ohio)	92%	W
9/18	Fri	@	*Fresno State	67%	W
9/26	Sat	@	Bowling Green	70%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	California-Davis	91%	W
10/14	Wed	@	Tulsa	57%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Hawaii	80%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*San Jose State	81%	W
11/6	Fri	@	*Louisiana Tech	71%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Idaho	100%	W
11/20	Fri	@	*Utah State	72%	W
11/27	Fri	vs.	*Nevada	72%	W
12/5	Sat	vs.	*New Mexico State	95%	W
Favored: 13-0   Projected: 10-3

As with TCU this season, Boise State should be favored in all their games. The big one comes right away as they host Oregon. While Boise is roughly of the same quality as last year the Ducks won't be as good, and since the game shifts onto the Smurf Turf the Broncos should have the edge. Get past that one and it really is—or should be—smooth sailing. Travelling to Tulsa might be a challenge, but again Tulsa is not last year's Tulsa team. No other team should present a serious test. Even in a 13-game schedule the cumulative projection gives them 10 wins; anything less than that would be tantamount to a collapse.

Using the odds for each game (which are purposefully extra-conservative, with a large amount of uncertainly built in) the Broncos have about a 2.5% chance of going undefeated over 13 games. As mentioned that's a super-conservative estimate; the real odds are likely far higher. But using that same system to compare them with TCU, we find that TCU's odds are only 1.7%. The upshot is that Boise State is about 50% more likely to end up undefeated—and therefore in a BCS bowl—than TCU, even with a 13-game schedule. This shows how relatively easy the Broncos' slate is. Since there is normally only one undefeated BCS-buster team, this bodes well for Boise's chances.

And if that's not enough, the 2010 Boise State team will almost certainly be far better. There are only four seniors on this year's team. The Broncos will likely have 10 starters back on both offense and defense. With Virginia Tech and Oregon State on the schedule, the Broncos could make a very strong argument for being not just a BCS-buster, but a BCS title game buster. Going undefeated this year would set them up in the top ten next year, in position to make it happen. But then, I'm getting ahead of myself. Let's see how this season plays out first.

2009 Pre-season Rankings - #17 to #19: Notre Dame, Florida State, Oregon

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #17 to #19. To see the full list, click here.

17. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Independent #1)     Polls: AP #23, USA/Coaches #23

2008 Results:    Record: 7-6   Bowl: Beat Hawaii 49-21 (Hawaii Bowl)   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #45    Success: #59    Overall: #48
Charlie Weis should have one of the most improved teams in the country in 2009, and a kind schedule could make it a great year.

Offense (10 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #59   Adj. Rush Yards: #96    Adj. Pass Yards: #31
The Irish offense was up and down last year after a horrendous 2007, but they ended on a high note against Hawaii and that's what we should see mostly in 2009. Jimmy Clausen (3,172 yards, 25 TDs) is developing into a real talent and if he reduces his 17 interceptions he'll have an incredible year. At receiver he's got 1,000-yarder Golden Tate (10 TDs), Michael Floyd (7 TDs), Duval Kamara, and tight end Kyle Rudolph back. The offensive line returns four starters from last year and another from '07 after improving from 58(!) sacks in '07 to just 22 last year. Expect a huge aerial assault from Clausen and Co. this year but all the top running backs return, too, including leader Armando Allen. From one of the worst in '07 to roughly average in '08, this should be one of '09's better offenses.

Defense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #38    Adj. Rush Def: #34    Adj. Pass Def: #69
The defense, too, improved greatly from '07 to '08 and finished with respectable numbers in scoring and stopping the run. The passing defense declined from being the '07 team's bright spot to below average, but that's largely because teams started using the pass against them at all—in '07 they just had to run the ball, period. The defensive line returns starters Ian Williams and Kerry Neal on what is now a true 4-3. At linebacker they lose Maurice Crum and Harrison Smith moves to the secondary, leaving Brian Smith the only returnee. With Smith at free safety and seniors Kyle McCarthy (#1 tackler) and Raeshon McNeil back and Darrin Walls returning from '07, the secondary should be solid. The Irish could maintain their rushing numbers this year while seeing an improvement in pass defense and scoring defense.

Kicking Game (2 RS):  Punter Eric Maust (41.1 average) and kicker Brandon Walker (14 of 24 FG, but 13 of his last 17) both return, but freshman Nick Tausch has won the kicking job.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #23
Whether or not you think Charlie Weis can coach, even if you don't believe in his "decided schematic advantage", he's been doing a good job recruiting lately. Though some blamed Ty Willingham for 2007—somehow—2008's mediocre year has to fall on Weis. But last year the Irish had the #1 recruiting class in the country, and this year's is in the top 25. The star of this year's class? Hawaiian Manti Te'o, whom some are pencilling in as a starter at linebacker. As for Weis' hot-seat status, this season should take care of that. Whether they actually get any wins over good teams, something that has been conspicuously missing even in the good years, is another matter, but a good season will buy him some time to let the latest recruits mature.

2009 Season Outlook  Last year was actually a pretty horrible year as Notre Dame football goes. But it was far, FAR better than 2007, and it ended on a good note, so what people come away with is the progress. But look at what happened in 2008. Notre Dame struggled at home against lowly San Diego State, with the win not even guaranteed until late in the game. They laid an egg against Michigan State and barely beat Stanford at home. They blew a big lead against North Carolina and lost. They lost a quadruple overtime game at home to Pitt, then were shut out by Boston College. They barely beat Navy which has been automatic for decades (until last year) and worst of all, they lost at home to hopeless Syracuse. Once again, USC beat them by 31 points which has become a cliché. Even their bright moments in the regular season—beating Michigan, Purdue, and Washington—were diminished as each of those teams, particularly UM and UW, were having uncharacteristically horrible years. So really, the only unmitigated highlight of the season was the bowl game where they broke the losing streak and showered the Warriors with TD passes en route to a 49-21 win.

Notre Dame 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Nevada	71%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Michigan	60%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Michigan State	54%	W
9/26	Sat	@	Purdue	60%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	Washington	78%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	Southern California	37%	L
10/24	Sat	vs.	Boston College	62%	W
10/31	Sat	N	Washington State	88%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	Navy	80%	W
11/14	Sat	@	Pittsburgh	53%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	Connecticut	70%	W
11/28	Sat	@	Stanford	45%	L
Favored: 10-2   Projected: 8-4

Helping matters this year is a kind schedule, featuring both Washington teams. It's not unlike last year's schedule; only three teams are different but they lose North Carolina which is good, and they have just four road games as they move to a "7-4-1" scheduling philosophy (7 home, 4 road, and 1 neutral field game, which this year is WSU in San Antonio, TX). They have Michigan State at home instead of the road which probably makes the difference in outcome. They have USC at home, which probably doesn't make a difference, but it at least puts the upset on the table. Pitt is on the road, though, which will be difficult, but the real killer is Stanford on the road which might only be their 2nd loss of the year and could kill any national title hopes that percolate up throughout the season.

The cumulative projection gives them eight wins, being conservative as usual. Lose to both Michigan State and Pitt and that will be the case—but it's a worst case. The Irish should have nine or ten wins and this is probably the year USC wins by far less than 31 points or even loses in a huge upset (Notre Dame of course has a way of doing that). This year might be a lot like the 2005 season where the Irish went 9-2 a year after being 6-6 but were overrated because of it. That was Wies' first year, so he's finally back to where he was then. The Irish will be a good team but not a top ten team, though if they have their luck back they could end up there before bowl season.

18. Florida State Seminoles (ACC #2; Atlantic #1)     Polls: AP #18, USA/Coaches #19

2008 Results: Record: 9-4  Bowl: Beat Wisconsin 42-13 (Champs Sports)  Poll finish: AP #21, USA #23
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #20    Success: #16    Overall: #19
The Seminoles have their best team in quite a while if they can sort out the receiver situation.

Offense (7.5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #18   Adj. Rush Yards: #30    Adj. Pass Yards: #76
Last year you needed a scorecard to keep track of which players might be suspended the first few games of '08 over the cheating scandal. This year, use the back of that scorecard to keep track of FSU's top receivers. #1 Greg Carr is done with his four years; #2 Preston Parker was dismissed from the team and transferred to N. Alabama; #3 Taiwan Easterling sat out the spring with an Achilles' tendon rupture; #4 Bert Reed was suspended many times last year; #5 Corey Surrency appealed for a 6th year but was denied; #6 Rod Owens was suspended over a DUI charge; #7 Jarmon Fortson has no news, which is good news. #10 Cameron Wade was arrested for brawling in the student union and didn't show up in court, leading to a bench warrant for his arrest; and Richard Goodman (redshirted last year) was also arrested in the same on-campus fight. So those gone are: Carr, Parker, and Surrency. Back: Easterling (healed), Reed (no trouble in 2009), Owens (legal issues resolved), Fortson (no news), and Goodman (issues resolved). Unknown: Wade. I give this group 1/2 a returning starter for Easterling, who says he's full strength but with this group's luck who knows.

Now for the rest of the offense. Quarterback Christian Ponder (2,006 yards passing, 14 TDs, 4 rushing TDs) returns after a decent year where he established himself as a dangerous runner. Meanwhile last year's backup D'Vontrey Richardson is gone; he first moved to free safety then signed with the Milwaukee Brewers. Running back Antoine Smith (15 TDs last year) is gone too but Jermaine Thomas (482 yards, 7.0 average) should do well taking over. Fullback Marcus Sims was returning until he was arrested, suspended, and transferred (also to North Alabama). Tight end Caz Piurowski is back along with all five starters on the offensive line. They're young—three sophomores and two juniors—but they did well last year and should be better this year. In 2010 they might be the best in the nation.

Defense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #37    Adj. Rush Def: #28    Adj. Pass Def: #62
The defensive line returns two starters, Kendrick Stewart at one tackle and Budd Thacker at the other, though Justin Mincey or Moses McCray might start there instead. They'll be good enough but will miss Everette Brown and Neefy Moffett's 19(!) combined sacks. At linebacker the 'Noles lose #1 and #2 tacklers Derek Nicholson and Toddrick Verdell while Dekota Watson is back. Finally the secondary returns Patrick Robinson and Jamie Robinson but loses Myron Rolle, the team's #3 tackler and only Rhodes Scholar. With their top three tacklers gone and questions about the pass rush, linebacker play, and secondary, the defense will be down a notch overall.

Kicking Game (0.5 RS): FSU loses great kicker Graham Gano, who hit 24 of 26 field goals last year and won the Groza award. He also handled about half their punts last season, averaging 42.7 yards. The other punter, Shawn Powell, averaged 41.1 and should be an adequate replacement. At kicker true freshman Dustin Hopkins takes over; he was among the top-rated high school kickers in the nation last year.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #16
Bobby Bowden can still recruit. Despite not knowing how long he'll remain as head coach, Bowden's 2008 class was top 5 and this year's is 2nd in the ACC, with consensus super-blue chip Jacobbi McDaniel (defensive lineman) leading the way, in addition to perhaps the nation's top placekicker. Bowden will be 80 this year and still feels like coaching. It may hasten his departure, however, if he has to give up his wins from 2006 and 2007 due to the cheating scandal. Right now he's still neck-and-neck with Joe Paterno, 382 to 383, though 31 are not I-A wins. The NCAA is forcing the school to officially subtract an unknown amount of games, and FSU is appealing that ruling.

2009 Season Outlook  After two 7-6 years plagued by inconsistent play at quarterback and offense in general the Seminoles took a step in the right direction in 2008. It could have been better; without having 10 players suspended against Wake Forest (including a half dozen starters) they could have beaten the Deacs in Tallahassee instead of losing 12-3. Still, midway through the year they were 6-1 when a loss to Georgia Tech caused in part by a goal-line fumble set them back. A later loss to Boston College ended their ACC title hopes and the annual loss to Tim Tebow and Florida was 45-15 this time. They trounced Wisconsin 42-13 in the Champs Sports Bowl in one of the worst matchups of the bowl season.

FSU 2009 schedule & forecast
9/7	Mon	vs.	*Miami (Florida)	57%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Jacksonville State	88%	W
9/19	Sat	@	BYU	58%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	South Florida	64%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Boston College	55%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Georgia Tech	54%	W
10/22	Thu	@	*North Carolina	45%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina State	66%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Clemson	50%	L
11/14	Sat	@	*Wake Forest	53%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Maryland	75%	W
11/28	Sat	@	Florida	6%	L
Favored: 9-3   Projected: 7-5

FSU has a tough non-conference schedule but has a good chance of starting 6-0. Boston College and Georgia Tech will be tough though, not to mention BYU on the road. But I think they can beat all those teams as well as in-state rival Miami and new rival USF at home. They face UNC on the road, though, and the Clemson road game is a possible win that I have them barely losing. Finally they'll lose to Florida once again to cap Tebow's 4-0 sweep. Of course it's an opportunity to get a huge upset but I don't see it.

The Seminoles should be 9-3, maybe 10-2 this season. But the ACC is still parity-ridden and while the cumulative projection of 7-5 might be low, they could fall back to 8-4 again. The offensive line is sound, Ponder is one year better, and there are a lot of good receivers despite the woes. The defense is a question but overall the team should be about as good as last year, yet without the early season suspensions. If they play more consistently this year they'll get the extra win(s) and be in the ACC title game.

19. Oregon Ducks (Pac-10 #4)          Polls: AP#17, USA/Coaches #14

2008 Results:    Record: 10-3   Bowl: Beat OK State 42-31 (Holiday)   Poll finish: AP #10, USA #9
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #12    Success: #17    Overall: #14
The Ducks will still be good but the offensive line is questionable and success in the Pac-10 hard to come by.

Offense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #3   Adj. Rush Yards: #3    Adj. Pass Yards: #48
Oregon's offense was built on the run last year, with Jeremiah Johnson and LaGarrette Blount both surpassing 1,000 yards and scoring 30 combined touchdowns. Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli added 718 yards and 10 TDs along with his 13 passing TDs (5 int). Blount and Masoli are back, insuring a strong running attack but it won't be as overpowering as last season's. Aside from Johnson's absence, another reason for the downgrade is that only one starter (C.E. Kaiser) and two part-time starters (Bo Thran and Jordan Holmes) are back on the offensive line. Receiver Jeff Maehl and tight end Ed Dickson are back to help improve the passing numbers if they go that route, but expected starter Chris Harper transferred as did backup QB Justin Roper. Without last year's dominant O-line Masoli and Blount will find things a bit more difficult.

Defense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #72    Adj. Rush Def: #48    Adj. Pass Def: #112
The defense had some problems last year but was generally bailed out by the productive offense. They might be needed a lot more to keep the Ducks in games, but there are areas of concern. The defensive line loses three starters including Nick Reed who had 13 sacks last year, 1/3 of the team's total. End Will Tukuafa (7.5 sacks, 10 tackles for loss) is the only starter back. At linebacker things look pretty good with Spencer Paysinger and Casey Matthews returning. The secondary needs to improve as the Ducks gave up metric tonnes of yardage last season. They lose #3 and #4 tacklers Patrick Chung and Jairus Byrd (5 interceptions) but #1 tackler T.J. Ward returns with Walter Thurmond (5 int). The defense returns all but a few members of the 2nd and 3rd string which helps a lot, but the D-line and secondary are concerns.

Kicking Game (1.5 RS):  Oregon used two placekickers last season, Matt Evensen (35/37 PAT, 11 of 18 FG) and Morgan Flint (28/28, 7 of 9). Flint is back but didn't make a field goal over 40 yards last year. Josh Syria averaged 42.5 yards per punt last year and departs; he'll be replaced by either freshman Jackson Rice or junior Tim Taylor.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #24
With the smooth transition between Mike Belotti and Chip Kelly (who moved up from offensive coordinator) the recruiting didn't miss a beat, ranking 4th in the Pac-10. Two highly-touted receivers, Dionte Jackson and Tyrece Gaines, could help shore up this year's depleted corps.

2009 Season Outlook  Last year I picked Oregon #10 in the nation despite losing Dennis Dixon. For a while it didn't look to be the case as they struggled to beat Purdue then lost at home to Boise State. Two games later they were competitive at USC into the 2nd quarter but the Trojans got 24 quick points and rolled 44-10. The offense continued to improve but couldn't function against better teams, losing to Cal 26-16. Finally at Oregon State they hit their stride, scoring 65 in the win. They were able to replicate that success against Oklahoma State as well, winning 42-31. By the end of the season they actually had made it to my predicted spot, but it took a late push by the amazing offense. They gave up an unhealthy amount of points all season, though.

Oregon 2009 schedule & forecast
9/3	Thu	@	Boise State	45%	L
9/12	Sat	vs.	Purdue	67%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Utah	58%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	*California	44%	L
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Washington State	91%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*UCLA	62%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Washington	71%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Southern California	36%	L
11/7	Sat	@	*Stanford	45%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	60%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Arizona	43%	L
12/3	Thu	vs.	*Oregon State	56%	W
Favored: 7-5   Projected: 7-5

This year the Ducks aren't going to be a top ten team, and despite being a top 25 team they face many challenges playing in an improved Pac-10. Though they face Cal and USC at home, that probably won't help. And they get Stanford and Arizona—two of the most-improved teams—on the road. Add in a game at Boise State—who beat the Ducks in Eugene last year—and it's looking like a 7-5 season.

On the plus side all of the Ducks' wins look pretty dependable, so a good performance could lead to some upsets, though I wouldn't count on it. The running game that formed the heart of their offense is going to see a lot less production with the inexperienced O-line, and the defense won't be any better than it was last year. Oregon should be bowl-eligible no problem but they won't likely be in the race for the Pac-10 title.

2009 Pre-season Rankings - #20 to #22: Michigan State, Georgia Tech, Ohio State

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #20 to #22. To see the full list, click here.

20. Michigan State Spartans (Big Ten #3)     Polls: AP #29, USA/Coaches #27

2008 Results:    Record: 9-4   Bowl: Lost to Georgia 24-12 (Capital One)   Poll finish: AP#24, USA#24
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #36    Success: #34    Overall: #36
The Spartans will have their best team in recent memory if they can successfully replace their quarterback and star running back.

Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #50   Adj. Rush Yards: #70    Adj. Pass Yards: #73
Javon Ringer redefined the word "workhorse" as it applies to running backs. He was 10 carries shy of an even 400 for the year, gaining 1,637 yards and scoring 22 touchdowns. The Spartans' next leading rusher had 97 yards. With Ringer gone there's an obvious hole in the offense, and with quarterback Brian Hoyer (2,400 yards, 9 TDs) gone there's another. The latter should be easier to fill, as Kirk Cousins did quite well last year (32 of 43 attempts) in limited action and Hoyer drew mixed reviews anyway. Also competing is sophomore Keith Nichol, a transfer from Oklahoma. Receivers are plentiful at MSU this year, with top gainers Mark Dell, Blair White, B.J. Cunningham, and tight end Charlie Gantt all back. Three starters return to the offensive line. This brings us back to the running back slot. Among the contenders are last year's #2 Andre Anderson (sophomore), sophomore Ashton Leggett, redshirt freshman Caulton Ray, and true freshman Edwin Baker. It's a safe bet that whoever wins the #1 spot won't have 30 carries per game like Ringer.

Defense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #27    Adj. Rush Def: #41    Adj. Pass Def: #93
In MSU's 4-3 the defensive line returns two starters, Oren Wilson and Trevor Anderson who had 8 sacks. At linebacker all three starters return including #1 tackler Greg Jones and #2 Eric Gordon, with Adam Decker listed as Jones' backup. The secondary loses Otis Wiley, who led the team with 4 interceptions, but everyone else is back. Ross Weaver, Dan Fortener, and Chris Rucker all started the majority of games while Kendell Davis-Clark was injured after 5 games. Three of the four starters this year will be seniors and the other (Rucker) is a junior. The Spartan defense was stingy on points even as it allowed yardage,
but they might improve on both fronts this season.

Kicking Game (2 RS):  Punter Aaron Bates (42 yard average) and kicker Brett Swenson (22 of 28 field goals) both return.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #27
Mark Dantonio's 3rd recruiting class is a major step higher than his last one, and it ranks near the top of the Big Ten though not up to the level of Ohio State and Michigan's typical classes. Two running backs from the class (Edwin Baker and Larry Caper) may compete for the right to replace Javon Ringer this year. In fact, nearly all of those in the mix at running back are freshmen or sophomores, in other words, all recruited by Dantonio. Losing Ringer is a drag, but after what may be a transition year they'll be set at running back for several more seasons.

2009 Season Outlook  Michigan State lost a close game at Cal last year to start 0-1 but ran off six straight wins after that. Though they beat Iowa and Northwestern in that string those teams hadn't yet proven themselves like they did by the end of the season. Consequently MSU wasn't even in the top 20 at 6-1. It did create somewhat of a showdown when they hosted Ohio State. The Buckeyes played their best game of the year in crushing the Spartans 45-7. Three wins later MSU was 9-2 and had another shot at a top team; again they were crushed, this time 49-18. They made it to a January 1st bowl game though, but lost to Georgia 24-12.

Michigan State 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Montana State	88%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Central Michigan	67%	W
9/19	Sat	@	Notre Dame	46%	L
9/26	Sat	@	*Wisconsin	57%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Michigan	67%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Illinois	50%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Northwestern	66%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Iowa	50%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Minnesota	53%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	Western Michigan	76%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Purdue	60%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Penn State	50%	L
Favored: 10-2   Projected: 7-5

This year a friendly schedule gives them no certain losses and three complete tossups, meaning they should go anywhere from 8-4 to 11-1. Right now (and this may change as injury reports come in from all the teams involved) they win on the road against Illinois and at home against Iowa but lose to Penn State at home. The road game vs. Notre Dame could be their toughest contest. Even Minnesota on the road is no gimme, which is why the cumulative projection turns up 7-5.

I think the Spartans will win at least eight games, and probably nine: they'll lose to the teams that are better than they are, namely Notre Dame, Iowa, and Penn State. This means another January 1st bowl game. It might be a rematch with Georgia and this time around I think they'd win. But that's all speculation. What will matter is the quarterback and running game; if they find good answers there it could be a great year for the team.

21. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (ACC #3; Coastal #2)     Polls: AP #15, USA/Coaches #15

2008 Results:    Record: 9-4   Bowl: Lost to LSU 38-3 (Chick-Fil-A)   Poll finish: AP #22, USA #22
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #31    Success: #15    Overall: #25
Georgia Tech is to running what Texas Tech is to passing—a team with the talent to make a 1-dimensional offense work even in a BCS conference.

Offense (9 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #39   Adj. Rush Yards: #1    Adj. Pass Yards: #118
Last year Texas Tech took its pass-happy offense to the highest level after returning nearly the entire offense and defense from the previous season. Now Georgia Tech does the same thing with the run option. All the leading ground-gainers, from "B-back" Jonathan Dwyer (1,395 yds 12 TDs, 7.0 ypc) to quarterback Josh Nesbitt (693 yds 7 TDs) and "A-backs" Roddy Jones (690 yds 4 TDs) and Lucas Cox (200 yds, 3 TDs), whatever you want to call them, they're all back. Add in receivers Demaryius Thomas (693 yards) and Tyler Melton and all of the "skill" positions are back. Coach Paul Johnson has stated a desire to pass the ball more this year; I don't understand the point, as they did just fine last year with a 1-dimensional offense. Nesbitt's numbers (44% completions, 808 yards, 2 TDs, 5 ints) don't suggest scaling up would help much, and backup Jaybo Shaw, who passed well in limited activity, is out at least the early part of the season with a broken jaw. But no matter, the run will still be the focus. The offensive line will be better in its second year of the system, plus three starters return (Dan Voss, Joseph Gilbert, and Cord Howard) while Nick Claytor and Austin Barrack finished the year in place of two injured starters (Andrew Gardner and David Brown). Somehow Johnson argues that this means the Wreck return all 11 starters, but he's a head coach not a mathematician.

Defense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #25    Adj. Rush Def: #33    Adj. Pass Def: #78
Georgia Tech's success last season owes as much or more to the defense as the offense. The defensive line was strong last year but loses Michael Johnson (9 sacks), Darryl Richard (4 sacks), and Vance Walker (3). Derrick Morgan (7 sacks) returns but the sack count and rushing defense are sure to suffer. The linebacking corps may be able to pick up the slack. Starters Kyle Jackson and Sedrick Griffin are back, and while they lose half-time starter Tony Clark, part-time starters Brad Jefferson and Anthony Barnes together had twice as many tackles as he did. The secondary gave up yardage last year but made up for it with interceptions by returnees Morgan Burnett (#1 tackler, 7 int), Rashaad Reid (3 int), Dominique Reese (3), and Mario Butler (1). This year they should be much better in holding the yardage and completion % down as well. The defense returns its top five tacklers and eight of the top nine and the only area of concern is the D-line.

Kicking Game (2 RS): Junior Scott Blair did triple duty last year. He kicked 12 of 19 field goals last year (none past the 40, however) and averaged 38.9 yards per punt, as well as handling kickoff chores. After some run-ins with head coach Johnson in spring Blair is giving up punting to concentrate on placekicking. So far reports say it's working as his leg looks stronger and more accurate. Unless Chandler Anderson or another punter proves solid I'd guess Blair ends up remaining the punter as well.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #44
Paul Johnson's 2nd class at Tech is similar to his first. Defensive lineman J.C. Lanier is perhaps the only true blue chip of the group though a few others are close. With Paul Johnson the system is more important than the personnel, which he proved at Navy. Recruiting at the service academies is tough, and the system has to be able to take any competent player and entrust him with a role. In the ACC, of course, the personnel has to be talented as well, and Johnson is beginning to show that his system can work against BCS-level defenses if he has BCS-level personnel to run it. With the success that he had last year in its first year of implementation it should be even better the second year now that it's familiar, and again I'm surprised Johnson is considering tinkering with it at all rather than just continuing to ram it down opposing team's throats. Any new familiarity those teams have with it is offset by the amount of talent that returns on offense.

2009 Season Outlook The big question was: can an option team win in a BCS conference? Can a service academy coach run his system in the ACC and do well? Some said yes. Others said no. I said, yes, but not right away, give it a year or two, especially since Georgia Tech wasn't very good in 2007. Instead, Johnson had the team winning league games right away. It was shaky at first—a 3 point win at Boston College followed by a 3-point loss at Virginia Tech—but then the Wreck won four straight. Two of the victims were Duke and Gardner-Webb, but the last one was Clemson on the road. They continued to alternate league wins and losses, losing to Virginia, beating FSU, and losing to North Carolina. The final ACC game showed how much they'd improved in running the offense as they overwhelmed Miami 41-23 to finish 5-3 in conference play. They capped the season off by beating Georgia on the road 45-42. That turned out to be the high point, though, as LSU bombarded them 38-3 in their bowl game.

Georgia Tech 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Jacksonville State	88%	W
9/10	Thu	vs.	*Clemson	56%	W
9/17	Thu	@	*Miami (Florida)	50%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina	51%	W
10/3	Sat	@	Mississippi State	71%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Florida State	46%	L
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Virginia Tech	55%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Virginia	61%	W
10/31	Sat	@	Vanderbilt	52%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Wake Forest	60%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Duke	66%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	Georgia	55%	W
Favored: 10-2   Projected: 7-5

This year most of the games look close, like they were in 2008, but Tech should win almost all of them. The loss to FSU is a tossup given to the Seminoles because they're at home, and the Miami game rates so close that the result is swung because of the fact that backup QB Shaw likely won't play. Other close games include North Carolina at home, Vanderbilt on the road, and Virginia Tech and Georgia at home. All of these make the projected result a conservative 7-5, and it's not out of the question that the Yellow Jackets regress. After all, they could have finished 4-8 last year if not for winning the close ones. They also could have been 11-1, and if they get every break this year they could be undefeated. Regardless of how the ball bounces they should be one of the many in contention for the ACC title.

22. Ohio State Buckeyes (Big Ten #4)     Polls: AP #6, USA/Coaches #6

2008 Results:    Record: 10-3  Bowl: Lost to Texas 24-21 (Fiesta)   Poll finish: AP #9, USA #11
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #9    Success: #21    Overall: #12
The Buckeyes try, try again for the defining win that has eluded them for years now.

Offense (4 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #29   Adj. Rush Yards: #15    Adj. Pass Yards: #106
By installing Terrelle Pryor as the starting quarterback early last year, Jim Tressel sacrificed offensive improvement in 2008 for hopefully bigger gains in 2009. The offense had to make a big adjustment to Pryor's style and he ended with just 1,300 passing yards, but he made some big plays and was the team's 2nd leading rusher. Now with a year under his belt he's much farther along than he would have been if Todd Boeckman had started. The bad news is that the offense isn't half as loaded as it was last season. Beanie Wells is gone after an injury-hobbled '08 in which he managed 1,197 yards and 8 TDs. Top receivers Brian Robiskie (8 TDs) and Brian Hartline (4) departed as well. The offensive line is the brightest spot, where three starters—Bryant Browning, Mike Brewster, and Jim Cordle—return and are joined by Justin Boren, the infamous Michigan starter who quit when Rich Rodriguez worked him too hard in the new offense. The line should protect Pryor better this year now that they're more familiar with him. Backs Dan "Boom" Herron and Brandon Saine get the job of replacing Beanie again, but this time it's for the whole year. The offense is very dependant on Pryor and if he's injured they are in trouble.

Defense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #4    Adj. Rush Def: #25    Adj. Pass Def: #14
The defense didn't live up to expectations last year after coming back almost fully loaded. The scoring defense still ranked in the top 5, but the rushing defense plunged from #2 to #25, and the passing defense fell from #1 to #14. Another year later and they still have seven starters coming back but again lose a really big name. The defensive line is in good shape and should get the rushing defense numbers back in the top ten. Cameron Heyward, Doug Worthington, and Thaddeus Gibson (5 sacks) return on the front four with Dexter Latimore and Lawrence Wilson looking to fill the other slot. At linebacker they suffer some huge losses, however, with James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman gone. Laurinaitis, who won all the possible national linebacking awards over his tenure, was the team's top tackler (130) last year and Freeman was #2. Starter Ross Homan is back, but one expected replacement, Tyler Moeller, was lost for the season after being attacked in a bar. The secondary returns Chimdi Checkwa at corner and Kurt Coleman (4 int) and Anderson Russell at safety. They might not be able to return the passing defense to the #1 spot but it should at least remain in the top 25. With such a downgrade at linebacker it could be hard for the Buckeyes to maintain a top 10 scoring defense ranking this year.

Kicking Game (0 RS): Senior John Thoma or redshirt freshman Ben Buchanan will be the Bucks' new punter, taking over for A.J. Trapasso (41.2 average). Kicker Ryan Pretorius (15 of 19 FGs) moves on, too, leaving part-time kicker Aaron Pettrey (7 of 8, long 54) a capable replacement.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #2
As has been the case recently Ohio State ranks easily at the top of the Big Ten in recruiting and very near tops in the nation. Out of over a dozen consensus blue chips in this year's class linebacker Dorian Bell from Monroeville, PA stands out as the elite player and could see time this year. Bell's high school teammate Corey Brown is a highly-touted D-back while in-state recruit Melvin Fellows is a top-rated defensive lineman. Last year's top 10 class had more of the really big names—like Pryor—but this year is deeper. Say what you will about Jim Tressel but he can recruit. And he belied his sweater-vest conservative image by going with Pryor last year. I felt he would waste Pryor by not using him; instead he probably went too far, as the team could have used more of a transition in the offense. Already thrown off by the loss of Wells they had to go back to the drawing board when Boeckman was dumped. It seems like the USC debacle forced his hand more than he made the decision on his own. Either way, at least this year's team is better off for it.

2009 Season Outlook Last year Ohio State came loaded for bear. The defense was already the best in the country and returned almost everyone. The offense wasn't great but was certain to improve with the bulk of starters back. Add in Pryor and they should have been able to compete with anyone. Instead the offense stank and the defense regressed, leading to a beatdown by USC.

When Wells was hurt late in a 43-0 warmup over Youngstown State, everyone knew that the USC game just got a lot tougher. Who suspected that in fact the OHIO game would be tough? The Buckeyes played terribly, escaping with a 26-14 win over a team they should have beaten 50-0. The next week Pryor played quite a bit against USC but the offense stalled after the first quarter and the defense was roasted to the tune of 35-3. After that it was just a process of regrouping. As Pryor replaced Boeckman and Wells slowly came back the offense was unreliable and many games were close. Finally in a 45-7 win over Michigan State they looked like the team they were supposed to be in 2008; Wells was back, Pryor was confident. They lost a close game to Penn State which saved the world from a Rose Bowl rematch with USC. Three more solid wins and they had played their way back into a BCS bowl game. Against Texas, a team let down by being seconds away from the national title, they predictably had a close-fought game but lost 24-21. A 10-3 season but once again they lost the three big games.

Ohio State 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Navy	79%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Southern California	35%	L
9/19	Sat	N	Toledo	70%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Illinois	57%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Indiana	74%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Wisconsin	64%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Purdue	59%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Minnesota	59%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	New Mexico State	93%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Penn State	42%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Iowa	51%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Michigan	59%	W
Favored: 10-2   Projected: 7-5

This year Ohio State should again coast through the Big Ten, losing only the big games to the big teams. No longer the big kid on the block they'll have to earn it. They're still good enough to beat just about anybody but they're still not going to beat USC, even at home, without a miracle this season. And Penn State on the road is just too tough. The closest they'll come to winning the Big One is if they can beat Iowa. Since they play at home they've got a good shot. Beat Iowa and they could be off to another BCS bowl; lose to the Hawks and they'll land in a lesser bowl and not be outmatched this year.

If things go wrong—the offense just doesn't function, Pryor is hurt, etc—they might fall to the 7-5 cumulative projection. But there's too much talent on this team to expect that to happen of its own accord. Still I think they're not nearly as good as many pre-season polls & publications have them. For the most part they're ranked in the top ten. A year after rating them higher than almost everyone I now have them lower than almost everyone. Which can only mean they'll overachieve and beat USC, right?

2009 Pre-season Rankings - #23 to #25: LSU, Kansas, Virginia Tech

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #23 to #25. To see the full list, click here.

23. Louisiana State Tigers (SEC #4; West #3)     Polls: AP #11, USA/Coaches #9

2008 Results:    Record: 8-5   Bowl: Beat Georgia Tech 38-3 (Chick-Fil-A)   Poll finish: AP#28 USA#28
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #34    Success: #40    Overall: #33
After a disappointing year did LSU find their future in the bowl win?

Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #26   Adj. Rush Yards: #34    Adj. Pass Yards: #61
The LSU offense, so sputtering in 2008, looks to be in pretty good shape in '09. After struggling through most of the year with Jarrett Lee at the helm (14 TDs, 16 int) Jordan Jefferson took over and led a huge win over Georgia Tech in the Chick-Fil-A bowl. With both QBs back the Tigers have a running threat (Jefferson) and an experienced backup as Lee was showing improvement before he was injured. But the key returnee this year is Charles Scott, who had 18 rushing touchdowns and over 1,200 yards. Top receiver Brandon LaFell (929 yards, 8 TDs) is back with tight end Richard Dickson (5 TDs). Though they lose 1st team all-American Herman Johnson three starters—Joseph Barksdale, Ciron Black, and Lyle Hitt—are back on the offensive line. It may not be the best offense in the country but it should be better and more consistent that last year's.

Defense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #58    Adj. Rush Def: #13    Adj. Pass Def: #82
The defensive line loses two full-time starters and two half-time starters. Only Charles Alexander returns, but backup Rahim Alem had 8 sacks and was 1st team all-SEC while Al Woods and Levarius Levingston are experienced upperclassment. LSU essentially ran a 4-2-5 last year with 2 linebackers starting most games but is in a true 4-3 this year. They lose one starter at linebacker but part-time starters Perry Riley and Kelvin Sheppard are back; Riley started 9 games and Sheppard 5 but they ended up the #3 and #2 tacklers on the team. Moving in from the secondary is Harry Coleman, meaning the three top tacklers from last year will be in the linebacking corps though Coleman will be a backup. The secondary returns starters at three positions in the now-four man unit. They lose Coleman and Curtis Taylor, but Chris Hawkins (3 int) returns at one corner; Jai Eugene and Patrick Peterson at the other corner; and Chad Jones and Danny McCray at free safety. The LSU defense has a lot of good players to move around if needed and the area with the most losses—the defensive line—has strong backups moving in. Overall the defense returns nearly all of the 2nd string so there is depth, too.

Kicking Game (0 RS):  Brady Dalfrey (40.1 average) and Colt David (16 of 21 FG) are gone; Josh Jasper will add placekicking to his kickoff duties and another junior, Derek Helton, takes over as punter.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #3
Les Miles is a controversial head coach, not because of what he does but because of what he is: a head coach that wins games. The controversy is whether he's any good or not, or just inherits good situations and wins through recruiting. He certainly turned Oklahoma State around, one way or another. He did inherit a lot of talent at LSU but in the 2007 national championship season he made some gutsy calls that resulted in wins, particularly the 4th down calls against Florida. The alleged "0:01 touchdown pass" against Auburn has been used to criticize him without noting that he had a timeout left and there were 4 seconds on the clock in reality—more than enough time to kick a winning field goal if the pass had been incomplete.

Regardless of anything else, he's a good recruiter, and this year's class underscores that. It's among the best in the country, with consensus elite players including in-state recruit Rueben Randle at wide receiver, and two Houston recruits, QB Russell Shepard and defensive back Craig Loston, the latter just having received clearance. Attrition often takes its toll, especially in the SEC, and that's kept the class from being #1. Last year, one of the Tigers' top recruits, DeAngelo Benton, failed to qualify for the 2nd straight year and somehow ended up at Auburn.

2009 Season Outlook  Last year the writing was on the wall when the schedule came out. Even though SportsRatings had LSU at #12 (they were #7 and #6 in the national polls) we noted that they probably wouldn't finish the year in the top 25 with four losses. As it turned out LSU was worse than expected but ended up in the same situation. They looked impressive in beating Appalachian State 41-13, North Texas 41-3, and even beating Auburn at the time still meant something. They were destroyed by Florida but won a tight game with South Carolina to stand 5-1. The fact that the Troy game got moved, I think, helped them avoid getting exposed until the 2nd half of the season. Crushed by Georgia, they still played Alabama tight (losing in overtime) so they remained in good graces. The first half of the Troy game underscored how poor they really were. They rallied, incredibly, for the win but subsequent losses to Mississippi (31-13) and a poor Arkansas team showed they were paper Tigers last season. A surprisingly dominant win over Georgia Tech—with Jefferson at the helm and playing a lot better than he did against Arkansas—gave hope for the 2009 season.

LSU 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	@	Washington	70%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	58%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Lafayette	75%	W
9/26	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	71%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Georgia	47%	L
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Florida	12%	L
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	61%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	Tulane	87%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Alabama	35%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	Louisiana Tech	76%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Mississippi	35%	L
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	63%	W
Favored: 8-4   Projected: 7-5

This year the schedule is tough again. They go on the road to Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi and face Florida at home. All four look like losses though the Georgia game is close. All of their wins, however, look pretty solid, so an eight-win regular season is practically guaranteed (thus disregard the overly-conservative cumulative projection). I think it's going to be another year of LSU being overrated at the start of the year but they are a lot better than last year's team and won't suffer any blowout losses this time around (except possibly Florida). I don't think they'll be in the national title equation at the end of the year, nor even the SEC championship game, but they should remain in the top 25.

24. Kansas Jayhawks (Big Twelve #5; North #1)     Polls: AP #25, USA/Coaches #26

2008 Results:    Record: 8-5   Bowl: Beat Minnesota 42-21 (Insight)   Poll finish: AP #37, USA #37
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #26    Success: #47    Overall: #32
The Jayhawks seek to build on their best back-to-back seasons in over half a century.

Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #19   Adj. Rush Yards: #74    Adj. Pass Yards: #12
Todd Reesing did it again for the Jayhawks last year—3,888 yards and 32 TDs—though he had quite a few more interceptions (13) than he did in '07 (just 7). The passing game actually improved with the help of two 1,000 yard receivers, Dezmon Briscoe (15 TDs) and Kerry Meier (8 TDs). That trio is back, though Briscoe caused a scare during the spring by not having his academics in order. Johnathan Wilson adds another target as does starting running back Jake Sharp (863 rushing yards, 12 TDs), the #4 pass catcher from last year. Besides Sharp, the many other running backs didn't produce a lot and caused the rushing offense to lag last year, making the team even more dependent on the pass and thereby more predictable. It might not be any better this year either, as #3 back Jacques Crawford left the program, and the offensive line returns just two starters, Jeff Spikes and Jeremiah Hatch, both sophomores. The O-line will be very young and this will present a challenge for the rest of the offense, which is loaded, in reaching its potential.

Defense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #59    Adj. Rush Def: #57    Adj. Pass Def: #68
The decline in the running game was only one reason Kansas regressed from its 2007 team. The other was the defense, which was solid in 2007 but earned mixed reviews in '08. This season the defensive line loses one starter, returning four players that combined for the three other starts: Jake Laptad (7 sacks), Caleb Blakesley, Jamal Greene and Richard Johnson. This should boost the rushing defense back toward its 2007 number. However, all three starters at linebacker are gone, including last year's #1 tackler Jake Holt who had 10 sacks. The passing defense fell from #38 to #68 after losing Aqib Talib, but this year the secondary should rebound as they return five players who essentially cover all four slots from last year: Darrell Stuckey (5 interceptions), Justin Thornton, Chris Harris, Phillip Strozier, and Daymond Patterson. As the team is playing more 4-2-5 these days it's good to have all that experience, and it covers for the linebacking corps' losses. Still, while the front line is filled, as is the secondary, there's a big gap in the middle where the team's #1, #3, and #4 tacklers from last year will be missed.

Kicking Game (2 RS): Alonso Rojas is an adequate punter (40.7 average) while Jacob Branstetter did a pretty good job (51/52 PATs, 9 of 12 FG) considering how dire the placekicking situation appeared in the summer of '08. Both are back this season.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #30
Mark Mangino built this program up over his seven years here and wants to see it continue to thrive. This year's recruiting class is a step in the right direction. Ranking about par for the Big Twelve, well over half its players are ranked above average, and that's not taking into account Mangino's eye for underrated recruits. Texan Prinz Kande, a defensive back, is one blue chip standout, while juco DE Quintin Woods may break the starting lineup this year.

2009 Season Outlook  After 2007's magical season '08 was bound to be a bit of a downer. Instead of starting 11-0 the Jayhawks lost a nail-biter at South Florida in game #3. They were 5-1 when they faced Oklahoma and Texas Tech back-to-back in what was a much tougher schedule than they had in '07. Both teams blew them away, particularly Tech who rolled up 63 points on the Jayhawks in Lawrence. It seemed that Kansas would finish the season out losing to any ranked team on their slate, but even Nebraska got into the act, besting KU 45-35 and getting revenge for the previous year's 76-39 beatdown. Texas beat them 35-7 and they stood 6-5 going into the game against Missouri, the only team to best them in 2007. This time the Jayhawks prevailed 40-37, ensuring a winning season at least. A one-sided bowl win over Minnesota ended the year on a good note.

KU 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Northern Colorado	92%	W
9/12	Sat	@	UTEP	62%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Duke	72%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	Southern Miss	62%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	71%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Colorado	61%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma	27%	L
10/31	Sat	@	*Texas Tech	41%	L
11/7	Sat	@	*Kansas State	62%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Nebraska	63%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Texas	19%	L
11/28	Sat	N	*Missouri	54%	W
Favored: 9-3   Projected: 7-5

The 2009 season starts off with six games that should all be clear victories; if they're 5-1 then the team that beats them might be a big surprise this year. If they're 4-2, then KU will be the surprise—on the downside. The tough games begin with Oklahoma, then on the road to play Texas Tech. Tech won't be as good as last year and Kansas is better, but the Jayhawks lost by 42 points at home and they haven't closed the gap that much. Weeks later they go on the road against Texas, another probable loss. Finally, the neutral field Missouri game is a close game, maybe their only one this year. I take that back—the Texas Tech game will be really close this year, too; it only makes sense. College football sense.

Based on the numbers I think 9-3 is about the only way they can finish, unless they lose to Missouri. The 7-5 cumulative projection is a worst-case scenario that would surprise me. But interestingly, despite being the best team in the Big Twelve North, they face three killer teams from the South that might ruin their chances for being in the conference championship game. They might beat Missouri only to see the Tigers advance! But right now it looks like they'll win the tiebreaker to compete for the Big Twelve title and get spanked again by one of the South squads. If they can manage an upset, though, they'll be in their second BCS game in three years. Quite a change from just a few seasons ago...

25. Virginia Tech Hokies (ACC #4; Coastal #3)     Polls: AP #7, USA/Coaches #7

2008 Results:    Record: 10-4   Bowl: Beat Cincinnati 20-7 (Orange)   Poll finish: AP #15; USA #14
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #29    Success: #12    Overall: #23
The Hokies lost Darren Evans for the year; how will it affect their chances in the ACC?

Offense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #62   Adj. Rush Yards: #26    Adj. Pass Yards: #115
The news of Darren Evans' ACL tear surprisingly didn't affect their standing in the AP pre-season poll (or didn't they vote after it happened? I don't know). Evans' 1,265 yards and 11 TDs were a big part of Virginia Tech's offense last year. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor is the other big part, accounting for another 738 rushing yards and 7 TDs and passing for 1,036 yards and 2 TDs while sharing time with Sean Glennon (graduated). Taylor's been changing his throwing motion to improve his passing numbers and it's a good thing as he'll be more important to the offense than ever before without Glennon and Evans around. Luckily the top five receivers are back, including Jarrett Boykin, Danny Coale, and tight end Greg Boone. The offensive line returns three starters after allowing 42 sacks in 2008. Although #3 rusher (behind Evans and Taylor) Kenny Lewis is back most foresee true freshman David Wilson getting the starting tailback nod. Without Evans the prospects for overall improvement in the offense diminish, though it means Taylor will have an even bigger year and has to remain unhurt.

Defense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #11    Adj. Rush Def: #16    Adj. Pass Def: #28
The defense and special teams have been the heart and soul of Virginia Tech football, and last year the defense did the job again, compensating for an offense that scored typically in the low 20s. The excellent rushing defense could be even better in 2009 with three starters returning to the front four: tackles John Graves and Cordarrow Thompson and end Jason Worilds (8 sacks plus 10.5 tackles for loss). At linebacker the Hokies lose their two top tacklers, Purnell Sturdivant and Brett Warren. But it's not all bad news as Cam Martin returns at the "whip" position and his backup, Cody Grimm, was the team's #3 tackler and had 7.5 sacks. Both are seniors and apparently there's no way to get them both into the starting lineup which would be ideal. The secondary returns three starters, Kam Chancellor, Dorian Porch, and Steven Virgil and should be good again. They'll miss Macho Harris' 6 interceptions but Virgil had as many last year. Overall the defense looks strong in every area and should continue to be the team's rock.

Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Brett Bowden (40.4 average) returns but kicker Dustin Keys (23 of 29 FG) is gone. Senior Matt Waldren, a transfer from Penn State, is his replacement.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #36
Frank Beamer has become an elder statesman in the coaching ranks, entering his 23rd year. He emphasizes special teams and defense and it shows, with blocked kicks famously leading to several wins over the years for the Hokies. The recruiting classes have become consistently good, in the middle to upper part of the ACC. Last year's class was particularly good but attrition and academic issues wore it down considerably. This year hasn't seen that attrition yet. All of this year's consensus blue chips are in-state recruits. Tight end Logan Thomas from Lynchburg is the most heralded with receiver D.J. Coles of Fork Union not far behind, but after Evans' injury David Wilson from Danville will easily be the most important newcomer.

2009 Season Outlook  Last year began with a game decided by a blocked punt, but the Hokies were on the other side for once as East Carolina shocked them 27-22. They began the task of re-establishing themselves as a noted power and reeled off five straight victories. None was easy due to the team's sputtering offense. Just before the season began Beamer announced that Tyrod Taylor would redshirt, but after the ECU loss that idea was quickly abandoned. Lack of offense caught up to them in losses to Boston College, FSU, and Miami but they were good enough to beat Maryland, Duke, and Virginia down the stretch due to the defense holding those teams to a total of 30 points. For the 2nd straight year they avenged a loss to Boston College by trouncing the Eagles in the ACC championship game. Sent to the Orange Bowl, it was their typical performance: just 20 points on offense but great defensive work in holding the Bearcats to 7.

Virginia Tech 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	N	Alabama	38%	L
9/12	Sat	vs.	Marshall	71%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Nebraska	63%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Miami (Florida)	56%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Duke	65%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Boston College	60%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Georgia Tech	45%	L
10/29	Thu	vs.	*North Carolina	50%	W
11/5	Thu	@	East Carolina	56%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Maryland	66%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina State	65%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*Virginia	60%	W
Favored: 10-2   Projected: 7-5

This year should be much the same. The offense loses one quarterback option and its main running option but returns enough talent to compensate. The defense will be as good or better. Look for more low-scoring games with Tech winning most of them. Exceptions are likely Alabama in Atlanta, Georgia Tech on the road, and maybe North Carolina at home. The cumulative projection falls to a conservative 7-5 but I'd give them 8 or 9 regular season wins. With Evans back they'd have the chance to go 11-1 but now you have to worry about Taylor getting hurt and changing the whole complexion of the season. Regardless of what the offense does it's the defense that won most of their games last year and will continue to do so this season.

2009 Pre-season Rankings - #26 to #30: Georgia, Oregon State, Baylor, Clemson, Miami

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #26 to #30. To see the full list, click here.

26. Georgia Bulldogs (SEC #5; East #2)     Polls: AP #13, USA/Coaches #13

2008 Results: Record: 10-3  Bowl: Beat Michigan St. 24-12 (Capitol One)   Poll finish: AP#13, USA#10
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #21    Success: #14    Overall: #20
The Bulldogs didn't live up to the hype last year. Can they exceed this year's lower expectations?
Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #13   Adj. Rush Yards: #35    Adj. Pass Yards: #16
Georgia's hopes on offense start with the offensive line. With starters Ben Jones, Chris Davis, Cordy Glenn, and Clint Boling back, plus half-time starters Justin Anderson and Vince Vance and 2007 starter Trinton Sturdivant, Georgia has the makings of a strong line regardless of who starts or where each one ends up playing. Right now it looks like Davis is the odd man out playing backup but the rest is undecided. But the "skill" positions are depleted in a big way. Though one of the two top receivers, Al Green (963 yds. 8 TDs), is back, they lose Mohamed Massaquoi (920 yards, 8 TDs). And of course the big losses are at quarterback and running back: #1 overall draft pick Matt Stafford (3,459 yards, 25 TDs) and Knowshon Moreno (1,400 yards, 16 TDs). Replacing Stafford will likely be fifth-year senior Joe Cox, who did well enough last year in limited play. To replace Moreno the Bulldogs may use a USC-style approach with sophomore Caleb King Richard Samuel taking the lead, becoming "a solid number one" among the backs.
Defense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #49    Adj. Rush Def: #21    Adj. Pass Def: #57
The rushing defense was decent last year and may improve even with the loss of two starters from the defensive line. Seniors Geno Atkins and Roderick Battle return, while another senior, Jeff Owens, started most of 2006 and 2007 before a knee injury kept him out last year. The other end position will have Demarcus Dobbs and Kiante Tripp, so each position in the D-line is in good hands. At linebacker they lose a starter but again, all positions are secure with three part-time starters back: #1 tackler Rennie Curran, Akeem Dent, and #3 tackler Darryl Gamble. The secondary is the big concern. After finishing a mediocre #57 in adjusted passing yards yielded they lose Asher Allen and C.J. Byrd. Reshad Jones (#2 tackler, 5 interceptions) is back with Prince Miller, and free safety Bryan Evans is experienced. Overall six of the top eight tacklers are back and the front seven looks very good.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Excellent punter Brian Mimbs (44 yards average) is gone, with sophomore Drew Butler set to replace him. Placekicker Blair Walsh returns after hitting 15 of 23 field goals.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #7
This year, finishing 3rd in the SEC in recruiting means you can still be among the top 10 in the nation. Of course Georgia has consistently been in the top 10 in head coach Mark Ritch's 8-year tenure, but this is one of his best classes yet. Defensive back Branden Smith is the consensus 5-star in the group and has a shot at starting this season, while Marlon Brown can help at receiver this year and Aaron Murray is a potential starter at quarterback next year.
2009 Season Outlook  Georgia started the 2008 season at #1 in the AP poll. I had them #9 and finishing 10-2 and even that turned out to be too optimistic. They lost their top spot before they lost a game but were still in the driver's seat at 4-0 before a showdown with Alabama. The Tide crushed the Bulldogs 31-0 in the first half and while thoughts of a national title weren't completely gone it was clear that they weren't a top five team. They plodded through three more wins before getting bulldozed by Florida 49-10. Their final three games reflected their disappointment: narrow wins over Kentucky and Auburn followed by a home loss to rival Georgia Tech. They recovered to outgun Michigan State 24-12 in the Capitol One bowl but that didn't redeem their Season of Great Expectations.

Georgia 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	@	Oklahoma State	39%	L
9/12	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	64%	W
9/19	Sat	@	*Arkansas	55%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	Arizona State	58%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Louisiana State	52%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Tennessee	57%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	51%	W
10/31	Sat	N	*Florida	8%	L
11/7	Sat	vs.	Tennessee Tech	100%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	60%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	70%	W
11/28	Sat	@	Georgia Tech	45%	L
Favored: 9-3   Projected: 7-5

Georgia opens at Oklahoma State and will be missing Justin Houston from the D-line and Josh Davis on the O-line, both experienced backups. That game will say a lot about both teams' chances for a big season. The Bulldogs may lose that one but then could go on a six-game winning streak that will end either at Vanderbilt(!) or certainly Florida. Following that they have a gimme against weak I-AA Tennessee Tech and should beat Auburn and Kentucky again before another showdown with Georgia Tech. With several tough games among the six "wins" in a row it's possible that the Bulldogs could fall to even 6-6 this year.

But I don't think Georgia will slip much at all from last year. The quarterback situation isn't bad—Stafford was more of a team leader/manager type than a superstar, and with a better line the running back committee will almost make up for Moreno's absence. On defense the front seven makes the overall unit better than last year. With a similar quality team I see a similar finish, either 9-3 or maybe 8-4 but again, watch that first game to see the real results of the team's new look.

27. Oregon State Beavers (Pac-10 #6)     Polls: AP #26, USA/Coaches #25

2008 Results:    Record: 9-4   Bowl: Beat Pittsburgh 3-0 (Sun)   Poll finish: AP #18, USA #19
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #19    Success: #13    Overall: #18
The concern this year is the defense, and the toughness of the Pac-10.
Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #23   Adj. Rush Yards: #41    Adj. Pass Yards: #22
Last year the big discovery was true freshman Jacquizz Rogers, who torched USC for 186 yards in last year's upset win and finished with 1,253 yards and 11 TDs. Quizz is back with brother James at flanker (1,007 yards and 9 TDs combined rushing/receiving) and tight end Howard Croom to help make up for the loss of receivers Sammie Stroughter (1,040 yards, 7 TDs) and Shane Morales (8 TDs). Aptly-named Darrell Catchings is also expected to be a top target when he returns from a wrist injury. The quarterback job is likely to go to Sean Canfield, who had just 703 yards last year (67%, 6 TDs, 2 int) but has started often over the years. Canfield is looking great in practice by all accounts and last year's starter Lyle Moevao (2,543 yards, 19 TDs, 13 int) was slowed by off-season should surgery. He'll be ready for fall, and if the last few years' injury records are any indication he'll be needed at some point. Three starters are back on the O-line. With two competent senior quarterbacks offense should be about equal to last year's and could improve as the receivers gain experience.
Defense (3 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #22    Adj. Rush Def: #46    Adj. Pass Def: #11
The defense is clearly an area of concern going into 2009 with just three starters back. Two years ago Oregon State's rushing defense was #1 in the country in adjusted yards allowed; last year they had to replace the entire front seven but maintained a respectable #46 and had 39 sacks. This year the front four returns Stephen Paea (5 sacks), but loses Slade Norris (10 sacks) and Victor Butler (12 sacks!). At linebacker they return two starters, Keaton Kristick and Keith Pankey. The secondary did a great job in 2008 but is in a shambles losing all four starters including top tackler Greg Laybourn (3 int) and three others who combined for 28 broken up passes and 7 interceptions. The four combined for 12 years of starting experience. This year's defense is going to be considerably weaker but especially against the pass.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Johnny Hecker (39.7 average) and kicker Justin Kahut (16 of 24 FG) both return and will try to improve their pedestrian numbers this season.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #64
Mike Riley has done a good job of keeping the team winning, where the bad years aren't too bad and the good years often exceed the team's pre-season potential. In terms of recruiting the Beavers are often near the bottom of the Pac-10. This year's only real blue chip recruit is Michael Phillip, an offensive lineman from San Bernardino. Last year's class had Quizz Rodgers, of course, but the big one that got away was DL Simi Kuli, one of the nation's top prospects who never qualified.

Oregon State 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Portland State	92%	W
9/12	Sat	@	UNLV	67%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Cincinnati	66%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Arizona	48%	L
10/3	Sat	@	*Arizona State	51%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	50%	L
10/24	Sat	@	*Southern California	27%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	*UCLA	67%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*California	36%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Washington	75%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Washington State	82%	W
12/3	Thu	@	*Oregon	44%	L
Favored: 7-5   Projected: 7-5

2009 Season Outlook  Not much was expected of the team last year, and they lived up to that assessment early on by losing at Stanford and getting crushed by Penn State. But when USC came to town they came alive in the first half taking a 21-0 lead. They held on to win 27-21, shocking the college football world. They very nearly gave another top team its only blemish but lost at Utah 31-28. After having faced three top ten teams in their first five games they got a break with Washington State and Washington and eventually won six straight. They looked Rose Bowl bound but Oregon cut that plan short by running all over them in a 65-38 rout. The Sun Bowl against Pitt was the opposite of that game; the Beavers won 3-0.

This year the defense won't be able to bail them out of games like the Sun Bowl, but they don't face two top ten teams in the non-conference schedule. They should start 3-0, but then they face three tossup games—Arizona, Arizona State, and Stanford—that could determine how their season goes. Three losses puts them at 6-6 for the year and possibly missing a bowl game. Winning all three means they could be 9-3, exceeding last year's record despite the concerns on defense. Right now I have them beating ASU but losing both home games but really all three are up in the air. The cumulative projection gives them 7 wins on the dot so I'll go with that. A much easier schedule compensates for being a weaker team overall, and they should nearly match their '08 record.

28. Baylor Bears (Big Twelve #6; South #5)

2008 Results:    Record: 4-8   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #49    Success: #92    Overall: #54
Baylor is a much-improved teams stuck in the worst subdivision possible.
Offense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #48   Adj. Rush Yards: #17    Adj. Pass Yards: #104
True freshman Robert Griffin was a dual-threat star for Baylor but got lost amidst all the superstars in the Big Twelve South. Throwing for 2,000 yards, 15 TDs and just 3 interceptions, Griffin also ran for 843 yards and 13 TDs. He has plenty of receivers to chose from: Kendall Wright (5 TDs), David Gettis, Ernest Smith, and Justin Akers and Brad Taylor at tight end. Top running back Jay Finley started half the games last year and was the leading rusher with 865 yards (7 TDs). He should be even better this year. The O-line allowed 28 sacks and returns two full-time starters plus Jason Hearvey who is still recovering from a mid-season ACL tear. A year older and still free of the burden of nationwide hype, Griffin should avoid the sophomore slump and will make people take notice of his exploits this season.
Defense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #53    Adj. Rush Def: #53    Adj. Pass Def: #91
The defensive line is shaping up well this season with two starters back, seniors Jason Lamb and Trey Bryant, plus the infusion of ex-Penn State tackle Phil Taylor. They have a Penn-State level linebacking corps, too, with starters Antonio Jones, Antonio Johnson, and #1 tackler Joe Pawalek (6 interceptions) all returning from last year. The passing defense was the team's weak spot last year, which is not good when you're in the Big Twelve. Starters Jeremy Williams and Jordan Lake, both seniors, are back and between corners Trentson Hill, Antareis Bryan, and Tim Atchison they have the equivalent of another starter returning. The secondary should improve quite a bit and the front seven looks great, so I'd expect Baylor's defense to be a lot better this year. 
Kicking Game (2 RS):  Punter Derek Epperson was great last year (44.3 average, 38.8 net) and he's back. Returning kicker Ben Parks didn't get a lot of chances, hitting 6 of 9 field goals, but he missed 5 of 44 extra points so there's certainly room for improvement.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #35
Art Briles managed to get a pretty good recruiting class, one that sits near the middle of the Big Twelve in quality, for his 2nd year. His best recruits this year are offensive linemen, among them Ivory Wade of Dickinson, TX. If this class is any indication of Briles' abilities in the future then Baylor football will have a solid program.

Baylor 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	@	Wake Forest	50%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Connecticut	67%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	Northwestern State	90%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	Kent State	76%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Oklahoma	18%	L
10/17	Sat	@	*Iowa State	62%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma State	45%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Nebraska	61%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Missouri	48%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Texas	24%	L
11/21	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	60%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Texas Tech	46%	L
Favored: 7-5   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  Baylor was a lot better in 2008 than their record showed. One problem was schedule; they faced eight bowl teams, losing to all of them. They also lost two games by a field goal and one by a touchdown. They beat all the bad teams on their schedule convincingly and lost to all the good ones, which puts them somewhere in between, not as bad as a 4-8 record normally would indicate.

This year Baylor plays essentially the same schedule as last year so it will be easy to gauge their improvement. Can they really go from losing to Wake Forest at home 41-13 to beating them on the road? Seems unlikely, but maybe they can steal one at Missouri, or at home against Texas Tech or even Oklahoma State to keep them on track for a 7-5 year.

The cumulative projection has them just under 6.5 wins, so either way they should be bowl eligible. With big improvements on offense and defense and the possible emergence of Griffin as a superstar, a breakthrough year is possible for the Bears but it will likely have to wait a year or two for the rest of the Big Twelve to lose a bit of its edge.

29. Clemson Tigers (ACC #5; Atlantic #2)     Polls: AP #34, USA/Coaches #36

2008 Results:    Record: 7-6   Bowl: Lost to Nebraska 26-21 (Gator)   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #25    Success: #39    Overall: #29
The Tigers approach 2009 with very lowered expectations.
Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #53   Adj. Rush Yards: #87    Adj. Pass Yards: #70
Last year's skill players didn't live up to their billing. Cullen Harper, so efficient in '07, threw 14 interceptions to his 13 TDs in '08. James Davis and C.J. Spiller threatened to rush for 1,000 yards each but neither came close. Receiver Aaron Kelly was several hundred yards shy of his 1,000 yard output from '07 either. Of those players only Spiller (629 yards, 7 TDs) is back, taking over the starting running back spot and hoping to get more than the 9 carries per game he was allotted in 2008. Redshirt freshman Kyle Parker has been named the starter; coach Dabo Sweeney claims Parker throws as well as the best NFL quarterbacks but backup Willie Korn will still play in every game. Returning at receiver is Jacoby Ford (710 yards, 4 TDs) and TE Michael Palmer (3 TDs), whom along with Spiller are all that's left of the top six pass catchers from last year. The offensive line, so maligned last year, should be far better with essentially five starters back. The Wall Street Journal's piece on team success being linked to returning starters on offensive line was criticized with this year's Clemson team in mind. Point taken, but is there any doubt that Clemson's line should improve dramatically this year? I think Spiller will have a great year and Parker will face far less duress than Harper did last year when the line allowed 34 sacks.
Defense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #12    Adj. Rush Def: #32    Adj. Pass Def: #22
The defense did its job last year. After the Alabama game they only let one team score more than 20 points the rest of the regular season. The D-line is solid; one starter is gone from the front four as Jarvis Jenkins, Ricky Sapp, and Kevin Alexander return and part-time starter Da'Quan Bowers becomes full-time at end. At linebacker all three starters return but DeAndre McDaniel moves (back) to the secondary, leaving Kavell Connor (#1 tackler on the team last year) and Brandon Maye as the two returnees. McDaniel joins returnees Crezdon Butler and Chris Chancellor (4 interceptions each) while Chris Clemons (2 int) and Michael Hamlin (6 int) depart. The passing defense should remain sound while the rushing defense ought to be restored to its usual top 25 quality.
Kicking Game (0 RS): The kicking game is one of the bigger area of concern going into the season. Jimmy Maners is gone at punter after averaging 40.5 yards a punt; the job falls to Dawson Zimmerman who punted earlier in the year but averaged only 38.5. Kicker Mark Buchholz hit 15 of 21 field goals, and redshirt freshman Spencer Benton is likely to take over.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #55
Dabo Sweeney took over Clemson in the middle of a fractuous year, and it's understandable that his first signing class ranks so much lower than last year's top 10 group. There wasn't a huge dropoff in quality, mainly quantity—Clemson signed only half as many players this year. Quarterback Tajh Boyd is nearly the equivalent of anyone from last year's class, which includes new starting QB Parker. Last year's class also boasted defensive lineman Bowers among other standouts. No one's expecting Sweeney to match that class but his second year on the trail will be watched. Sweeney is basically learning on the job and admits as much, saying that he tried to micromanage too much last year and will be delegating more in the future.

Clemson 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Middle Tennessee St.	73%	W
9/10	Thu	@	*Georgia Tech	44%	L
9/19	Sat	vs.	*Boston College	58%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	TCU	49%	L
10/3	Sat	@	*Maryland	65%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Wake Forest	57%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Miami (Florida)	47%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	Coastal Carolina	96%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Florida State	50%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*North Carolina State	56%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Virginia	65%	W
11/28	Sat	@	South Carolina	56%	W
Favored: 9-3   Projected: 7-5

2009 Season Outlook  Clemson was in nearly everyone's top 10 to start the season. Everyone was wrong (SportsRatings put them #11—still wrong). The first game vs. Alabama demonstrated that there was something very wrong with the offense, and it wasn't just Terry Tommy Bowden giving C.J. Spiller *two* carries the entire game. They lost 34-10, and after three uninspiring wins they lost three more, scoring 17, 7, and 17. Bowden was fired after the middle game, a 12-7 loss to Wake Forest. Sweeney took over and the team won four of its last five to go a disappointing but respectable 7-5 before losing a tight bowl game to Nebraska. (Here's where we brag that we picked the exact final score).

Now that everyone's excluding Clemson from the top 25, they might just have a pretty darn good year. The ACC is still full of parity. The offensive line *has* to be better. Spiller's back, and QB Parker looks like he could be the real deal. If anything the defense will be better. And Sweeney may be no genius but he had the team playing better than Bowden last season. The Tigers shouldn't be expected to win their division but they should do well, at least matching last year's record and probably a game or two better. Even the losses slated for them here could be close games. Might Clemson overachieve in '09 as much as they underachieved last year?

30. Miami Hurricanes (ACC #6; Coastal #4)     Polls: AP #35, USA/Coaches #33

2008 Results:    Record: 7-6   Bowl: Lost to Cal 24-17 (Emerald)  Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #35    Success: #33    Overall: #34
We'll know a lot about this year's 'Canes after the first four games.
Offense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #30   Adj. Rush Yards: #60    Adj. Pass Yards: #82
There's been surprisingly little buzz or news out of Miami in the pre-season, save for the surprise transfer of two more quarterbacks; last year of course ended with Robert Marve's transfer and the acrimony that followed. But Jacory Harris, last season's backup, is a better QB anyway: He had a better completion percentage (61% to 55%), more TDs (12 to 9) and fewer interceptions (7 to 13); they ran equally well, each with over 100 yards and 2 TDs. Harris will again throw to the top four receivers from last year, including Aldarius Johnson and tight end Dedrick Epps, who has recovered well from an ACL tear. The running back tandem of Graig Cooper (841 yards) and Javarris James is back, but James is injury-prone and Cooper got hurt as I was writing this and is wearing an immobilizing boot (supposedly it's "nothing.") The offensive line returns three starters so if the running backs are healthy the offense should improve across the board.
Defense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #43    Adj. Rush Def: #61    Adj. Pass Def: #50
The defensive line will have great depth this year. Starters Steven Wesley (end) and Joe Joseph (tackle) are back but neither is likely to start this year ahead of the likes of Eric Moncur (back for a 6th after injury last season) and Marcus Forston. At linebacker top tackler Glenn Cook is gone but #2 Sean Spence and Darryl Sharpton return. The secondary is deep as well. As in the front four, the two players that started the most games last season—Chavez Grant and JoJo Nicolas—won't start at corner and safety ahead of half-time starter Brandon Harris and Randy Phillips, who is returning from an injury suffered early last season. Two ex-receivers, seniors Ryan Hill and Sam Shields, give the unit speed. Overall the defense looks marginally better but far, far deeper than it has in the recent past.
Kicking Game (2 RS): For all the hoopla about UM's quarterbacks, punter/kicker Matt Bosher was the team's best player last year and was justly named their MVP. He averaged 40.3 yards per kick (36.2 net) and made an amazing 18 of 20 field goals in 2008 while handling kickoffs as well. He returns for his junior year.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #22
Randy Shannon has had an interesting tenure so far. He seems frustrated that the team hasn't instantly turned back into the powerhouses that he played for back in the day. His hard-ass reputation with players was lauded at first but has drawn some fire when it's been put into practice; some think he wasn't lenient enough with Marve, for example, and that he missed an opportunity with recruit Bryce Brown. Brown, the #1 recruit, period, in 2009, was set to come to Miami but dealing with his "advisor" soured the University on him. Details are sketchy, but Brown may not have liked what offensive coordinator Mark Whipple was planning, and Shannon didn't want to play ball with Brown's de facto agent, which may be a good thing. But Brown ended up at Tennessee where evidently Lane Kiffin didn't mind kissing the agent's ass. Shannon's 3rd UM class is still top 25 in quality and about 3rd in the ACC, though nothing like last year's top five class. Among the half-dozen-plus blue chips this year the standout is Ray Ray Armstrong, a defensive back from Sanford, Florida who will augment an already-deep secondary.

Miami 2009 schedule & forecast
9/7	Mon	@	*Florida State	43%	L
9/17	Thu	vs.	*Georgia Tech	50%	W
9/26	Sat	@	*Virginia Tech	44%	L
10/3	Sat	vs.	Oklahoma	24%	L
10/10	Sat	vs.	Florida A&M	90%	W
10/17	Sat	@	Central Florida	63%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Clemson	53%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Wake Forest	49%	L
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Virginia	64%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*North Carolina	41%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Duke	69%	W
11/28	Sat	@	South Florida	53%	W
Favored: 7-5   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  In Shannon's first year, the 'Canes stood 5-3 but lost the last four. In '08 they were 7-3 and knocking on the door of a conference title, but lost their last two.

2008 started with questions about how much better the team would be than in '07. The 52-7 win over Charleston Southern proved nothing. Losing to Florida just 26-3 was good evidence but inconclusive at the time. They beat Texas A&M again. Two close losses left them 2-3, and a 20-14 home win over UCF looked sloppy. They traveled to much-improved Duke, a team that has come so close to beating them recently. The Blue Devils led 24-14 late and the season was in danger, but the Canes rallied for a blowout win, 49-31. From there Miami won three close ACC contests and stood at the 7-3 mark overall. But they couldn't handle Georgia Tech's option at all and lost to N.C. State the next week. They played fairly well but erratically in the loss to Cal in the Emerald Bowl.

The four-game stretch that opens the 2009 campaign—FSU, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma—will mostly likely put the 'Canes into a 1-3 or 0-4 hole. After that it gets better but according to my numbers it's a 7-5 or 6-6 season, counting favorites or cumulative projections. But this includes two very close games—Georgia Tech at home and Wake Forest on the road—both of which they could easily win. So an 8-4 year is a couple bounces of the ball away. That's why the first four games are so significant. If Miami emerges at 2-2 the season looks very promising. Even 0-4 leads to bowl eligibility, so anything better than that is actually a good start. And my gut feeling is the Miami gets nine wins this year so I suppose they'll have to go 8-4 and win their bowl game.

2009 Pre-season Rankings - #31 to #35: Illinois, Utah, Rutgers, Missouri, Vanderbilt

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #31 to #35. To see the full list, click here.

31. Illinois Fighting Illini (Big Ten #5)     Polls: AP #27, USA/Coaches #35

2008 Results:    Record: 5-7   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #46    Success: #68    Overall: #50
Another Juice-Williams-led offense, but this one might be the best one yet.
Offense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #35   Adj. Rush Yards: #36    Adj. Pass Yards: #21
The 2009 Illini offense looks fully reloaded. Juice Williams is the key, leading the team in rushing (719 yards) while throwing for 3,173 yards and 22 TDs last season. Favorite target Arrelious Benn (1,055 yards) is back along with Jeff Cumberland and tight end Michael Hoomanawanui. The top running backs return including Daniel Dufrene (663 yards) and Jason Ford (8 TDs). Three starters are back on the O-line, which should give good protection despite losing its two best players. In all, everything is in place for a high-powered offense in Williams' senior year.
Defense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #64    Adj. Rush Def: #45    Adj. Pass Def: #59
The defensive line loses three starters who combined for 13.5 sacks. They do have Josh Brent back at tackle after being suspended for the spring for DUI, plus Doug Pilcher who started in '06 and '07, but potential starter Jerry Brown was lost to academics. The front four will be an area to watch. At linebacker they lose two starters including #1 tackler Brit Miller (132 tackles, 6 sacks) while Martez Wilson returns. The secondary loses Vontae Davis to the NFL but Dere Hicks, Donsay Hardeman, and Travis Bellamy are back. Overall the front seven looks questionable and the defense as a whole might be hard pressed to make an improvement after losing their two stars.
Kicking Game (2 RS):  Anthony Santella—39.6 average but just 31.6 net—returns at punter and Matt Eller (15 of 20 FG) is back to placekick.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #38
Ron Zook can't coach but he can recuit. That's the line on Illinois' head coach, and there's some truth to it. His in-game decisions have been questionable at times. And he certainly can recruit, as this year's class (and last year's in particular) demonstrates. Though not at the top of the Big Ten it's in the top half, with quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase, receiver Terry Hawthorne, and running back Justin Green a terrific offensive trio. On defense cornerback Justin Green is a consensus blue chip.

Illinois 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	N	Missouri	51%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Illinois State	89%	W
9/26	Sat	@	*Ohio State	43%	L
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Penn State	45%	L
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Michigan State	50%	L
10/17	Sat	@	*Indiana	70%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Purdue	56%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Michigan	63%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Minnesota	49%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Northwestern	62%	W
11/27	Fri	@	Cincinnati	58%	W
12/5	Sat	vs.	Fresno State	69%	W
Favored: 8-4   Projected: 7-5

2009 Season Outlook  Last year was a bit of a retrenchment after the breakout Rose Bowl year in 2007. They couldn't keep up with Missouri in the opener and barely hung on to beat UL-Lafayette. After the 2-1 start they alternated losses (Penn State, Minnesota, Wisconsin) and wins (Michigan, Indiana, Iowa). But losing to Western Michigan 23-17 was their low point, and losses to Ohio State and Northwestern insured a bowl-free season.

This year the close games will determine how much better the Illini do. And they will do better, winning at least 7 games and going to a bowl game. The first, and perhaps most important test is Missouri. The Tigers are on their way down and they meet Illinois on the way up in a true tossup. I have them listed as winning the neutral-field game (finally) while dropping tight games to MSU (home) and Minnesota (road). Win all of those and Illinois finishes even better than in 2007.

The offense is certainly good enough to guide the team to a 10-2 finish, but the defense is an area of question. Should they lose again to Missouri, probable losses to Ohio State and Penn State could lead to a 1-4 start, which would not be good for morale. But none of the first five games is completely out of their reach; they also avoid playing Iowa this year which is good. Illinois is a team to keep an eye on early this season as that's when they'll signal whether they might be able to make another Rose Bowl run.

32. Utah Utes (Mountain West #2)     Polls: AP #19, USA/Coaches #18

2008 Results:    Record: 13-0   Bowl: Beat Alabama 31-17 (Sugar)   Poll finish: AP #2, USA #4
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #10    Success: #1    Overall: #5
Utah won their second BCS bowl game in five years but this time they kept their coach, though once again their star quarterback is gone.
Offense (4 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #12   Adj. Rush Yards: #45    Adj. Pass Yards: #30
Returning to the Ute offense are starting linemen Zane Taylor, Zane Beadles, and Caleb Sclauderaff. You can argue that's it, three offensive linemen back from the Utes' 13-0 dream team. You can argue that Matt Asiata, the leading rushing last year with 707 yards and 12 TDs should be considered a returning starter despite only starting 1 game. Or you can note that three starters—Freddy Brown (900 yds, 7 TDs), Brent Casteel (4 TDs), and Bradon Godfrey (4)—are gone from four receiving slots (+ tight end) and that if you add up returners Jerome Brooks (1 TD), David Reed (6 TD) and tight end Chris Joppru, you almost have another starter. We'll call it four starters back on move on. The important stat is how much they lost, which begins first and foremost with Brian Johnson (68%, 2,972 yards, 27 TDs, 9 int) who seemingly willed the team to win several times last year. Moving ahead of both Terrance Cain and Corbin Louks in the race to replace Johnson is true freshman Jordan Wynn; Louks is transferring to Nevada. Whoever ends up behind center has a tough act to follow and a depleted offense to run, but should be fairly well-protected at least.
Defense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #15    Adj. Rush Def: #11    Adj. Pass Def: #34
The defense isn't in bad shape at all, especially in relative sense. The front four boasts three returning starters; two who played on the line last year (Derrick Shelby and Koa Misi) and Nai Fotu who played linebacker. The other two linebackers, #1 tackler Mike Wright and #2 Stevenson Sylvester, also return meaning five out of the front seven are back; additionally, defensive end Kenape Eliapo began last year as the starter before he was injured but is healthy now. The secondary has both starting safeties back, Joe Dale (3 int) and Robert Johnson (4 int), both of whom are seniors, though both corners are gone and potential starter Damilyn Tanner was lost to academics. Overall the defense looks tough again, particularly up front where they stuffed the run last year.
Kicking Game (0 RS): Utah suffers two major losses this year: Quarterback Brian Johnson, and punter/kicker Louis Sakoda. Sakoda has played both roles with excellence for three years, averaging 42.1 yards per punt last year while making 22 of 24 field goals. Attempting to replace him at placekicker will be strong-legged Ben Vroman who handled kickoffs last year, and either Vroman or Sean Sellwood at punter.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #51
Kyle Whittingham could have jumped to another team like several of his assistants did but he stayed put after the Utes' undefeated season. He recruits well even though there have to be questions about how long he'll stay. Utah finished 2nd in the Mountain West, behind only BYU, in the recruiting stakes this year, the 13-0 run giving some boost on signing day. One disappointment for this recruiting phase was that elite national recruit James Aiono, a juco defensive end expected to start this year, didn't enroll in the fall and can't play until next year. That way he'll have two years of eligibility left when he enrolls—assuming that happens. Many "grayshirts" use their new-found freedom to sign elsewhere, or end up not qualifying particularly if the reason for delaying enrollment was academics rather than injury.

Utah 2009 schedule & forecast
9/3	Thu	vs.	Utah State	73%	W
9/12	Sat	@	San Jose State	68%	W
9/19	Sat	@	Oregon	42%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	Louisville	70%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Colorado State	67%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*UNLV	65%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Air Force	67%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Wyoming	79%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*New Mexico	74%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*TCU	40%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*San Diego State	82%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*BYU	54%	W
Favored: 10-2   Projected: 8-4

2009 Season Outlook  No one said going 13-0 was easy, and it certainly wasn't for the Utes as they dodged several pitfalls games en route to perfection. But when they needed a great drive or a hard-fought game, they brought it. The Utes completely outplayed Michigan but still escaped from Ann Arbor with just a 25-23 win. A few weeks later they needed a late TD to beat Air Force, then a miracle comeback to overcome Oregon State 31-28. They won back-to-back 13-10 games against New Mexico and TCU; in the latter they were dominated the whole game, doing nothing until a final drive. But they crushed BYU and rolled over the Tide in the Sugar Bowl, finishing 13-0.

When my system picked them to go 12-0 last year I didn't believe it. There were too many close games on the slate, and surely they'd slip up once, I figured! They made it all the way, but with bad luck instead of good they'd have been the most underrated 7-5 team in the country.

This year looks like another good one despite the loss of Johnson, Sakoda, and most of the starters on offense. The vast majority of the 2nd and 3rd string is back for the Utes, especially on offense where they need it. The defense will be solid again. And their competition is not that great. Despite what you've heard about the Mountain West being of BCS level, it's not quite true. There are three good teams, then a big drop off. And TCU and BYU aren't as good as they were last year, especially BYU in my opinion. Utah can beat any team in the league except TCU and their only big non-conference challenge is Oregon. They'd have to repeat their luck from last year to go 10-2, so 9-3 or 8-4 is more realistic. Being realistic is what made me pick Utah to go 11-1 instead of 12-0 last season, but they don't have Brian Johnson to defy the laws of the universe any more.

33. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (Big East #1)     Polls: AP #30, USA/Coaches #32

2008 Results: Record: 8-5  Bowl: Beat N.C. State 29-23 (Pappajohns) Poll finish: AP #34; USA #36
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #33    Success: #43    Overall: #35
The Knights are a borderline top 25 team. If you take schedule into account they finish in the top 10.
Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #36   Adj. Rush Yards: #62    Adj. Pass Yards: #19
It took some time last year but Rutgers adjusted to life without Ray Rice. Now they'll have to adjust to life without Mike Teel. The Knights' quarterback threw for 3,418 yards and 25 TDs in his senior campaign, leading the team back from the brink of disaster to a winning year and throwing a record seven touchdown passes in their final regular-season game. Domenic Natale has the double-edged honor of following Teel who has raised expectations considerably, so much so that they wanted Teel replaced early in the year. With go-to guy Kenny Britt (1,371 yards, 7 TDs) among three of the top four pass-catchers gone his job won't be easy. On the other hand he should have ample time to scout out new targets as all five starters return to an offensive line which allowed just 19 sacks last year. They should improve the running game greatly, too, as fullback Jack Corcoran returns with top tailbacks Kordell Young, Jourdan Brooks, and Joe Martinek who combined for over 1,400 yards and 15 TDs. Just as Rutgers became a passing team when Rice left they should move back toward the run this year.
Defense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #35    Adj. Rush Def: #17    Adj. Pass Def: #107
The defense stopped the run well last year but not the pass. It could be more of the same this year as two starters return in each area of the defense suggesting that a radically different breakdown is unlikely. George Johnson and Alex Silvestro bookend the front four; they accounted for just 4 sacks while last year's tackles accounted for ten. At linebacker they lose #1 tackler Kevin Malast but #2 Ryan D'Imperio (5.5 sacks) is back. The secondary also returns two starters—Devin McCourty and Joe Lefeged—while Courtney Greene and Devin's brother Jason depart. Devin had five more tackles than Jason but one fewer interception. The defense will likely still have strength up front and weakness in the backfield, but because about 19 of the 22 2nd- and 3rd-stringers are back, the defense should get an overall boost.
Kicking Game (2 RS): The Scarlet Knights have both last year's punter—Teddy Dellaganna, 41.2 average—and placekicker San San Te (12 of 17 FGs) back.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #31
Greg Schiano has managed to do the impossible. No, not bringing Rutgers back into the world of winning football programs. That was tough, but the impossible thing is that he's still at the school, resisting any and all attempts to recruit him away. The program's success is feeding on itself now and this year's recruiting class reflects that. Better than last year's, it ranks near the top of the Big East.

Rutgers 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	*Cincinnati	64%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Howard	100%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Florida International	71%	W
9/26	Sat	@	Maryland	63%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	Texas Southern	100%	W
10/16	Fri	vs.	*Pittsburgh	55%	W
10/23	Fri	@	Army	77%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Connecticut	58%	W
11/12	Thu	vs.	*South Florida	59%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Syracuse	69%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*Louisville	63%	W
12/5	Sat	vs.	*West Virginia	61%	W
Favored: 12-0   Projected: 8-4

2009 Season Outlook  Last year was the proverbial tale of two seasons for Rutgers. Playing sloppy and losing 24-7 in a game they could have won against Fresno State, the Knights were then whipped by UNC 44-12 and lost to Navy, 23-21. After they fell to West Virgina and Cincinnati, a win over I-AA Morgan State was their only skin in a 1-5 start. They lucked out a win over UConn, 12-10, but that only underscored how pathetic the offense was. Then something clicked and Teel became a monster. They scored 54 at Pitt, 49 at USF, and 63 against Louisville, going 5-0 to close the season at 6-6. They won their bowl game and again had a winning record, their 4th straight.

This season Rutgers has several things going for it on the schedule. Seven home games; two FCS teams—bad FCS teams—and chief Big East rival Pitt at home. All of this adds up to what could be a 12-0 season, somewhat of a repeat of their Cinderella year of 2006. Rutgers is no world-beater this year; even with two "gimmes" on the schedule the cumulative projection adds up to just over eight wins. But with most of the Big East clustered below them in the rankings, this year the conference is theirs for the taking. I don't think they'll make it undefeated. Either early when the offense is adjusting to the new quarterback or in one of their few tough games later, probably both, they'll lose. But they should get about 10 wins, and all that will likely translate into a Big East title and BCS bowl game. Which they'll more than likely lose, since they might not even be a top 25 team, but the Orange Bowl is the Orange Bowl, right? In fact, Rutgers fans should almost pray for a loss somewhere, otherwise the Knights run the slim risk of being matched against Florida in the BCS championship game, which would be very ugly.

34. Missouri Tigers (Big Twelve #7; North #2)     Polls: AP #45, USA/Coaches #34

2008 Results: Record: 10-4  Bowl: Beat Northwestern 30-23ot (Alamo)   Poll finish: AP #19; USA #16
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #8    Success: #31    Overall: #13
Missouri tries to recover from the loss of QB Chase Daniel.
Offense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #6   Adj. Rush Yards: #57    Adj. Pass Yards: #5
The Tiger passing game was the Tiger offense last year, by and large. They ran the ball fairly well, too, but some of that was Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin's doing, too. The star quarterback (4,335 yards, 39 TDs, 73% completions) and receiver (102 rec., 1,260 yards, 13 TDs, 2 return TDs) were the team's #3 and #2 rushers as well. Along with those two, tight end Chase Coffman (10 TDs) and Tommy Saunders (7 TDs) are gone this year, leaving #3 Jared Perry (567 yards) the top returning receiver. Sophomore Blaine Gabbert (#3 QB, 5 of 13 attempts last year) will take over. It might be a good time to balance out the offense with more running plays given that Derrick Washington (1,036 yards, 17 TDs) returns along with three starters in the offensive line. 
Defense (4 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #44    Adj. Rush Def: #22    Adj. Pass Def: #108
Passing defense was Missouri's weakness last year, and they were unfortunate in that the Big 12 was one the best passing conferences of all time in 2008. But the Tigers lose defenders across the board and even their strength—rushing defense—will be tested. Three starters who accounted for 18.5 sacks are gone from the defensive line; Jaron Baston (1 sack) returns. The best news is at linebacker where two of three starters return including #1 tackler Sean Weatherspoon (155 tackles, 5 sacks, 3 interceptions). Luke Lambert is also back but they lose #2 tackler Brock Christopher (105 tackles). The secondary was picked apart last year by some of the Big Twelve's best and three starters are gone. Last year's #5 tackler Carl Gettis returns at cornerback but #3 Justin Garrett, #4 William Moore, and #6 Castine Bridges are gone. The Tigers return much more of the 2nd string than the starting lineup from '08 but these losses are significant.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Jake Harry is back to punt again after averaging 40.7 yards per kick. Kicker Jeff Wolfert is gone and senior Tanner Mills is set to replace him.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #50
Missouri's 2009 recruiting class took a big hit with the loss of Sheldon Richardson, the top tight end prospect in the country, to academic disqualification. Richardson will attend junior college and plans to attend Missouri in 2011. WIthout him the class ranks in the lower half of the Big Twelve, quite a bit lower than last year's crew. Not that Gary Pinkel didn't bring in any good players; linebacker Josh Tatum is a consensus blue chip and could start this year. Another standout recruit, quarterback Blaine Dalton, almost got himself booted after a traffic stop/drug fiasco, but he's been cleared to play after avoiding felony charges and then he got a DUI and was kicked off the squad anyway.

Missouri 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	N	Illinois	49%	L
9/12	Sat	vs.	Bowling Green	72%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Furman	80%	W
9/25	Fri	@	Nevada	59%	W
10/8	Thu	vs.	*Nebraska	59%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Oklahoma State	37%	L
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Texas	22%	L
10/31	Sat	@	*Colorado	57%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Baylor	52%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Kansas State	58%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	67%	W
11/28	Sat	N	*Kansas	46%	L
Favored: 8-4   Projected: 7-5

2009 Season Outlook  Missouri had high hopes for 2008 and for a while they were coming true. After beating Nebraska 52-17 on the road they stood 5-0 with another win over Illinois and Chase Daniel was in the Heisman driver's seat, awaiting a showdown with Texas that would leave the path clear to an undefeated season.

But the game before Texas, a home game against Oklahoma State, went awry. Daniel kept trying to complete a comeback win against the Cowboys but they weren't having it, intercepting him three times to seal a 28-23 victory. The letdown carried over into next week as Texas blasted them 56-31. Missouri became an essentially forgotten team nationally as the Big Twelve South teams battled it out week-by-week. Mizzou racked up three more wins before being upset by Kansas. Still, it was good enough to go to the Big Twelve championship game and get crushed by Oklahoma 62-21. Heavy favorites against Northwestern in the Alamo Bowl they had all the hallmarks of a team ripe for an upset; they needed overtime but prevailed over the Wildcats.

The Tigers aren't nearly the team they were last year. Yet their schedule doesn't change much from last year's relatively easy one. The teams they beat last year they may be able to beat again (save perhaps Illinois). The ones they lost to they'll lose to again. They won't win by nearly as much, and they might lose by a lot more some weeks. But in the end the W-L tally might be almost the same. Realistically I'd lean toward the cumulative projection, which almost puts them at 6-6; I figure that early on while the offense is learning to crawl and the defense is adjusting to all its new members that either Nevada or Nebraska will catch them, or Colorado, Baylor, or Kansas State later. But it would take a hard fall to have a losing season. It's not out of the question when you look at who they lose but the team was solid top to bottom last year and will still be a decent team. Whether 8-4, 7-5, or 6-6 Missouri will manage to be bowl eligible again. Just don't expect to see them in a third straight Big Twelve title game.

35. Vanderbilt Commodores (SEC #6; East #3)      Polls: AP #45

2008 Results:    Record: 7-6   Bowl: Beat Boston College 16-14 (Music City)   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #42    Success: #28    Overall: #41
The Commodores hope for another rare winning season and bowl game victory.
Offense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #79   Adj. Rush Yards: #49    Adj. Pass Yards: #114
MacKenzie Adams and Chris Nickson went back and forth at quarterback last season, with neither completing 50% of his passes. It's no wonder the Commodores finished in the bottom 10 in the nation in passing. Nickson is gone and Adams is back but he is likely the #2 QB behind Larry Smith, a sophomore who exceeded a 50% rate in both games he played. That's good enough for Vandy. For Smith there's good news and there's bad news. The bad news first: All of the top five receivers from last year are gone except tight end Brandon Barden (209 yards, 4 TDs) and transfer Terrence Jeffers from UConn won't be eligible this year. The good news: every starter is back on the offensive line. All of them are in their 2nd year of starting, but still, look for a drop in sacks and a better running game with Jared Hawkins gunning for 1,000 yards.
Defense (9 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #16    Adj. Rush Def: #67    Adj. Pass Def: #13
One reason Vandy could win games with such a terrible passing offense is that they had such a great defense, particularly passing defense. With nine starters back the defense will continue to win games for the Commodores. The defensive line returns intact, with Steven Stone and Broderick Stewart (5 sacks apiece) at end and Greg Billinger and Adam Smotherman at tackle. All three linebackers return, including #1 tackler Patrick Benoist and #2 Chris Marve. The secondary loses D.J. Moore (6 interceptions) and Reshard Langford (3) but returns Ryan Hamilton (104 tackles, 4 interceptions) and Myron Lewis (5 int). The passing defense will slide a bit naturally but the front seven will compensate with added pressure and the rushing defense should improve immensely.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Brett Upson (40.4 average) is back, while redshirt freshman Ryan Fowler is expected to replace kicker Bryant Hahnfeldt (13 of 18 FG).
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #84
Even if Vandy were 50 spots higher in our recruiting rankings they'd still be last in the SEC. Yet Bobby Johnson has built a winning program while being last in recruiting most years. He's trying to make the program a winning one but with 11 other teams at or near the top 25 in recruiting it's going to be tough. There was some improvement after last year's winning season—about half of this year's recruits are above average, where just a handful of last year's were—to sustain a winning program in the SEC is going to take landing some good signing classes. Otherwise it seems there's a limit to how much—and for how long—the Commodores can be above water, even with Johnson at the helm getting the most out of his players.

Vandy 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Western Carolina	94%	W
9/12	Sat	@	*Louisiana State	42%	L
9/19	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	73%	W
9/26	Sat	@	Rice	59%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	38%	L
10/10	Sat	@	Army	77%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Georgia	49%	L
10/24	Sat	@	*South Carolina	54%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	Georgia Tech	48%	L
11/7	Sat	@	*Florida	1%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	65%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Tennessee	53%	W
Favored: 7-5   Projected: 7-5

2009 Season Outlook  The 2008 Commodores roared out of the gate with a win over Miami of Ohio, an upset of South Carolina, wins over Rice and Mississippi that looked even better in retrospect, and an upset of Auburn which looks pedestrian in the rear-view mirror. They were 5-0 when their lack of offense finally bit them in the ass. They scored 14, 14, 7, and 14 points in losing their next four, one of them an upset loss to Duke. They beat Kentucky to become bowl eligible, but put that in danger by losing two more (scoring 10 points each outing) and finishing 6-6. Vandy hadn't had a winning season since 1982 not won a bowl game since 1955 but they did both in beating Boston College, scoring just 16 but holding the Eagles to 14.

This year Vandy should only get better across the board. The QB play and the running game will be better, and the passing game can't get much worse. The defense will be among the best in the nation, too. It was good enough to get them 7 wins last year, and should do the same this year. Two very close games (Georgia and Georgia Tech at home) go against the Commodores or they'd be even better, but I don't count on them winning either of those. If they do, you have to look at the two road games (South Carolina and Tennesse) that could also go against them. The cumulative projection narrowly gives them a 7th win, but even if they slip somewhere they can make it up on another game and go at least 6-6 again. Another bowl year should be on Vanderbilt's plate this season, served up again by a tough defense.

2009 Pre-season Rankings - #36 to #40: Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Arizona State, Minnesota, Boston College

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #36 to #40. To see the full list, click here.

36. Pittsburgh Panthers (Big East #2)     Polls: AP #28, USA/Coaches #30

2008 Results:    Record: 9-4   Bowl: Lost to Oregon State 3-0 (Sun)   Poll finish: AP #27; USA #31
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #28    Success: #26    Overall: #30
The Panthers are finally winning under Dave Wannstedt. Is a BCS bowl on the horizon?
Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #34   Adj. Rush Yards: #47    Adj. Pass Yards: #69
Bill Stull established himself as the Panthers' starting quarterback despite throwing just 9 TD passes and 10 interceptions. Perhaps it's because backup Pat Bostick has 9 TDs and 17 interceptions in his career here? Either way it didn't matter last year as LeSean McCoy was the key to last year's offense, rushing for 1,488 yards and a remarkable 21 touchdowns. With McCoy gone and the leading returnee gaining just 34 yards, you have to figure there will be a de-emphasis on the running game. The Panthers had no true standout receivers, and three of the top four are gone although starters Oderick Turner and Nate Byham (tight end) are back along with Jonathan Baldwin who had a strong freshman year. The good news is that the offensive line returns four starters which should aid the new running back, be he sophomore Shariff Harris, redshirt freshman Chris Burns, or true freshman Dion Lewis.
Defense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #28    Adj. Rush Def: #12    Adj. Pass Def: #48
The defense—especially against the run—was tough last year and should take another step up in '09 despite some key losses. Three starters return on the D-line: Mick Williams, Greg Williams, and Jabaal Sheard who combined for 13.5 sacks. Linebacker is their most questionable area as they lose both #1  tackler Scott McKillop (137) and #2 Austin Ransom (89). But starter Greg Williams returns and replacing the others are Adam Gunn and Shane Murray, both of whom started in 2007. The secondary returns three out of four starters, with corners Jovani Chappel (2 int) and Aaron Berry (3 int) joining strong safety Dom DeCicco (4 int). Though they lose three of their top five tacklers, they return the next ten, and have no weak areas on the field.
Kicking Game (0 RS):  Pitt must replace the excellent Conor Lee, who connected on 20 of 24 field goals last year. Redshirt freshman Kevin Harper or junior Dan Hutchins will try to replace him. Hutchins is also in line for the punting position, where Dave Brytus departs after averaging a reasonable 40.7 yards per kick.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #50
All of Dave Wannstedt's signing classes have been in the top 25 or very close until this year, so the question fans ask is, with all this talent coming in, why couldn't the team win? His critics say it's because he can't coach, he can only recruit. Last year's success either proved the critics wrong, or, showed that with a critical mass of talent any coach can win. This year's group of newcomers ranks in the middle of the Big East rather than #1 as has been the case for the last several years. There are no super blue chips this time, just your run-of-the-mill blue chips like running back Ray Graham and linebacker Dan Mason. Another consensus four-star recruit, receiver Todd Thomas, failed to qualify and will attend prep school.

Pittsburgh 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Youngstown State	91%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Buffalo	58%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Navy	73%	W
9/26	Sat	@	North Carolina State	52%	W
10/2	Fri	@	*Louisville	62%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Connecticut	63%	W
10/16	Fri	@	*Rutgers	46%	L
10/24	Sat	vs.	*South Florida	58%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Syracuse	75%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	48%	L
11/27	Fri	@	*West Virginia	53%	W
12/5	Sat	vs.	*Cincinnati	63%	W
Favored: 10-2   Projected: 7-5

2009 Season Outlook  It looked like it was going to be another lame season at Pitt. The opening loss to Bowling Green, after such high expectations for the season, was like a punch in the face. Beating Buffalo and Iowa back to back—a remarkable achievement in hindsight—didn't register at the time because neither team had been revealed as a winner yet. Three more wins and they were 5-1 with a win over USF but still it seemed they hadn't beaten anybody. Over the 2nd half of the season they lost to Rutgers and Cincinnati, beat Notre Dame in four overtimes, and closed out the season with two wins including a 34-10 win at UConn that put them at 9-3, and undeniably winning season. The loss to Oregon State in Sun Bowl, and the fashion in which it happened (3-0) underscored how poor the offense was at times in Wannstedt's reign. He hired a new offensive coordinator after the season was over.

This year many teams in the Big East see big declines and Pitt is there to take advantage. Despite their own offense seeing a decline the defense should be better and their biggest competition for the Big East title is Rutgers, who they unfortunately play on the road. Other than that their toughest game is hosting a very improved Notre Dame. Both these games are winnable, giving Pitt a chance (though very slim) of going undefeated. With all the close and uncertain games the cumulative projection falls to just under 7 1/2 wins, thus 7-5. But I think 8-4 is the worst they'll do; they could lose to N.C. State and West Virginia on the road. But the 10-2 slate already shows them splitting the close games, so it's not completely unrealistic.

37. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (ACC #7; Atlantic #3)    Polls: USA/Coaches #47

2008 Results:    Record: 8-5   Bowl: Beat Navy 29-19 (EagleBank)   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #30    Success: #18    Overall: #27
Last year the offense struggled and the defense excelled; this year things will be more even.
Offense (9 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #67   Adj. Rush Yards: #67    Adj. Pass Yards: #92
Last year's offense was mediocre, and a big part of that was the O-line which had four new starters and allowed 30 sacks. Things should be much better this year; if it's possible to return more than five starters to the offensive line, the Deacons do it for '09. Starters Russell Nenon, Jeff Griffin, Joe Birdsong, and Barrett McMillan, all return for their senior year, as do Joe Looney and Trey Bailey who covered the last slot. All are back plus senior Chris DeGeare who started full-time in 2006 and most of 2007. Behind this much more experienced line quarterback Riley Skinner will operate, hoping to amp up a passing game that generated under 2,500 yards and 13 TDs. Skinner is efficient; he completed 72% in 2007 and threw only 7 interceptions last year. His top receiver, D.J. Boldin, is gone along with the other started Chip Brinkman but Marshall Williams returns with starting tight end Ben Wooster. The running game has talent: Starter Josh Adams (4 TDs) is back along with Brandon Pendergrass who actually outgained him (528 yards, 5 TDs) and #3 Kevin Harris who will push both of them, and fullback Mike Rinfrette is back for his senior year.
Defense (4 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #10    Adj. Rush Def: #8    Adj. Pass Def: #65
When teams found they couldn't run on the Deacons they went to the air, where they had better luck but still found themselves having difficulty scoring. This year there are lots of holes to fill. The rushing defense will still have most of its toughness, as the front four return three starters: Boo Robinson (5 sacks), Kyle Wilber (3), and John Russell (4). Those three are the team's leading returning tacklers as well, placing 6th, 7th, and 9th in '08. If a back manages to get past the D-line they may find themselves with some open air. All three starters at linebacker are gone, including the team's #1 and #2 tacklers Aaron Curry (13.5 tackles for loss) and Stanley Arnoux. The secondary returns corner Brandon Ghee but loses draft picks Alphonso Smith (7 interceptions) and Chip Vaughn. Overall the defense loses its top five tacklers and though the rushing defense will still be good, when teams go to the air they may have a lot more luck.
Kicking Game (1 RS):  Shane Popham was last year's punter (39.2 average) and backup placekicker (7 of 12 FG). Sam Swank was the primary kicker (11 of 17 FG) and started out as punter (37.6 average) until injured. Popham returns this year as punter and will placekick as well unless freshman Jimmy Newman beats him out.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #63
Despite Jim Grobe's success in turning Wake Forest into a winning program recruiting still ranks near the bottom of the ACC. That's not surprising when you consider how much of a basketball-only school Wake Forest was for such a long time. But things are improving, and this year's class has more recruit than last year's without sacrificing quality. That said, none of the recruits stands out as a blue chip, though about half are considered above average. Grobe rarely plays true freshmen, but he makes exceptions when it's practical. For example, if kicker Newman proves his worth he will play and start. And fullback Tommy Bohanon might play as a true even though they already have a fifth-year senior in the slot.

Wake Forest 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Baylor	50%	L
9/12	Sat	vs.	Stanford	46%	L
9/19	Sat	vs.	Elon	76%	W
9/26	Sat	@	*Boston College	46%	L
10/3	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina State	58%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Maryland	68%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Clemson	43%	L
10/24	Sat	@	Navy	65%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Miami (Florida)	51%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Georgia Tech	40%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Florida State	48%	L
11/28	Sat	@	*Duke	60%	W
Favored: 6-6   Projected: 7-5

2009 Season Outlook  Like every ACC team the Deacons had their moment in the  conference title driver's seat. They were 6-3 and ranked when two narrow losses sank their BCS dreams. In fact narrow losses were the story of their season. Aside from a 26-0 pasting by Maryland the Deacs lost by 7 to Navy, by 6 to Miami, by 4 to N.C. State and by 3 to Boston College. No team scored more than 30 points against them, a credit to their defense and an indictment of their offense. They beat Navy in the silly bowl-game rematch.

Wake Forest beat Baylor 41-13 on the road last year but this time around it's too close to call even in Winston-Salem. And Stanford is even tougher. What happened to this supposedly easy schedule? Even Elon is going to be good this year in I-AA. The ACC still has a lot of parity but most of the teams got better, leaving Wake to a 6-6 record. The cumulative projection seems to know that the opener against Baylor should be a win and gives them a 7-5 record, which I think is reasonable. Better in some ways, worse in others, this team's strengths and shortcomings largely even out, and without the same influx of new talent that the other conference teams have the Deacons will slip a bit. Still, a fourth bowl game in a row is unprecedented here.

38. Arizona State Sun Devils (Pac-10 #7)

2008 Results:    Record: 5-7   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #52    Success: #77    Overall: #55
The Sun Devils return a moderate number of starters but also the vast majority of their reserves.
Offense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #82   Adj. Rush Yards: #115    Adj. Pass Yards: #51
Quarterback Rudy Carpenter was the face of the team for the last four years; now it appears that senior Danny Sullivan is finally going to get his shot. In practice he's been performing a lot better than last year's 35% completion rate would imply; sophomore Samson Szakacsy hasn't thrown well and will likely be the backup. Top receiver Michael Jones (4 TDs) is gone but Chris McGaha returns after managing to top 500 yards in '08. At running back the return of Dmitri Nance and Shaun DeWitty should make up for Keegan Herring's departure and sophomore Ryan Bass could see more touches. The offensive line returns three full-time starters in Shawn Lauvao, Jon Hargis, and Thomas Altieri, though the latter is listed behind sophomore Garth Gerhardt at center and others such as Tom Njunge were part-time starters in '08. The line blocked poorly but should be a lot better this year, helping ASU's rushing stats crawl out of the cellar.
Defense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #23    Adj. Rush Def: #27    Adj. Pass Def: #45
The defense tried to hold the team together last year as the offense sputtered and did a fair job. The front seven could be even better this year. On the D-line Dexter Davis (11 sacks) returns alongside Lawrence Guy, and at linebacker they lose #2 tackler Morris Wooten but return #1 Mike Nixon (5 int) and #3 Travis Goethel, while Gerald Munns returns after starting the first three games last season. The secondary loses both safeties including pro pick Troy Nolan but both corners—Terrell Carr and Omar Bolden—are back. In addition roughly 18 players from the 2nd and 3rd string defense are back this year and several incoming freshman may play key roles right away.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Thomas Weber wasn't as good last year as he was his freshman year when he made 24 of 25 field goals. In 2008 he hit 19 of 25, still good but not up to his standards. He's back to try to win a 2nd Groza Award. He punted well last year, too, averaging a more-then-respectable 41.4 yards though just 33.8 net. Oddly, Weber is hoping the team finds an adequate replacement at punter so he can concentrate on placekicking. So if junior Trevor Hankins can beat him (or equal him?) at punting he'll get the job. Hankins averaged 37.1 yards in 7 punts last year so expect Weber to be punting again.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #40
Dennis Erickson got a reputation for cutting town due to leaving Miami in the wake of the Pell Grant scandal and jumping from Idaho to ASU after just one season. But he's also brought a reputation as a good recruiter. Last year's class ranked in the top 25 nationally and this year's ASU class ranks in the middle of the Pac 10. But he certainly landed some big names in '09: Vontaze Burfict is one of the top linebacker prospects in the country and should be on the 2nd string this year or even start. Another defense recruit, tackle Corey Adams, should also find an open spot on the defensive line by the end of the year. If Erickson decides to stick around and continues to get recruits like these two, ASU football has a bright future.

ASU 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Idaho State	94%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Monroe	77%	W
9/26	Sat	@	Georgia	42%	L
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Oregon State	50%	L
10/10	Sat	@	*Washington State	77%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Washington	71%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Stanford	39%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	*California	38%	L
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Southern California	30%	L
11/14	Sat	@	*Oregon	40%	L
11/21	Sat	@	*UCLA	54%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Arizona	44%	L
Favored: 5-7   Projected: 7-5

2009 Season Outlook  After the Sun Devils were one of the brighter surprises of 2007 they were also one of 2008's most disappointing teams. Ranked to start the season, they beat Northern Arizona and Stanford but lost 23-20 in overtime to UNLV in a game that was a poster child for the "MWC is better than the Pac-10" movement last year. The next five teams they faced all ended up in the top 25; ASU lost them all and was 2-6. Washington and Washington State were just what the doctor ordered and after beating UCLA they were 5-6 and needed to beat rival Arizona to be bowl eligible. They lost 31-10. 

This year the early games are the kindest, with the Washington teams in the first half of the year. The game that determines their bowl eligibility is in that span, too. Right now the Oregon State game looks too close to call. Win it and they could be 5-1 through mid-October but finish 6-6 as they hit a wall of tough competition once again. Lose it and they could be 5-7 for a second straight year.

Interestingly the cumulative projection—which adds up the individual game odds rather than worrying about each game by itself—narrowly gives the Sun Devils seven wins. So they're more likely to pick up a couple of upsets somewhere along the way and be bowl bound. This fits in with Erickson's history, as he's never had back-to-back losing seasons anywhere. Since 6-6 counts as a non-losing season, and because most of their wins and losses seem well-defined, I'll give them the Oregon State game and predict bowl eligibility in 2009.

39. Minnesota Golden Gophers (Big Ten #6)     Polls: USA/Coaches #57

2008 Results:    Record: 7-6   Bowl: Lost to Kansas 42-21 (Insight)   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #73    Success: #70    Overall: #73
A better offense and defense but less luck for the Gophers in 2009.
Offense (9 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #83   Adj. Rush Yards: #98    Adj. Pass Yards: #53
Quarterback Adam Weber has shown good abilities both in passing (62%, 2,761 yards, 15TDs, 8int) and running the ball (#2 on the team with 233 net yards, 4 TDs). Last year's #1, #3, and #4 receivers are back, Eric Decker (1,074 yards, 7 TDs), Ben Kuznia (310 yds), and Brandon Green (306). The ground game wasn't effective last year, with top back DeLeon Eskridge (7 TDs) averaging just 3.7 yards per carry and Duane Bennett lost early in the year. The consistency in the offensive line should be much greater this year as few players kept the same position game to game last year. Ryan Winn, D.J. Burris, Nedward Tavale, and Jeff Tow-Arnett all started the majority of games last season but any or all of them might play backup this year! The depth and added experience in the O-line will be a big help in what could be a very good offense.
Defense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #68    Adj. Rush Def: #49    Adj. Pass Def: #110
The defense went from one of the worst in the country in 2007 to a respectable one in 2008; this year they could take it one step further. The defensive line loses Willie VanDeSteeg (10.5 sacks) but returns seniors Garrett Brown, Eric Small, and Derrick Onwuachi; they might do better against the run even as the pass rush is less effective. At linebacker they lose two starters but #1 tackler Lee Campbell returns and #5 tackler Simoni Lawrence moves into the lineup. This gives the Gophers an all-senior front seven. The secondary is going to miss Tramaine Brock (#3 tackler) at strong safety but #2 tackler Kyle Theret is back at free safety and two more seniors Marcus Sherels and Traye Simmons (4 int) return at corner. The house that (last year's D.C.) Ted Roof built still stands, and looks to be even better this year.
Kicking Game (0 RS):  The Gophers must replace both punter Justin Kucek (41.9 average) and kicker Joel Monroe (12 of 16 FG). Eric Ellestad looks like the new kicker, and either freshman Dan Orseske or senior Blake Hauden will punt.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #57
Tim Brewster's first year at Minnesota ended 1-11; his 2nd year started 7-1. A big part of the turnaround was due to improvement on the defense, where Ted Roof was coordinator. He left for Auburn and the offense changes hands as well, moving toward a pro-style offense under new coordinator Jedd Fisch. This year's recruiting class sits in the lower half of the Big Ten but still includes blue chip wide receiver Hayo Carpenter. Last year's class was top 25 in the country, featuring QB Marquis Gray who qualified academically this year and should be part of special plays on offense. Another standout recruit from 2008 is Sam Maresh, who was diagnosed last summer with a congenital heart defect and had open-heart surgery; after recovery a growth was found in his leg that later proved to be non-cancerous. Now a year after being told he would never play again he's back practicing with the team.

Minnesota 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	@	Syracuse	67%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Air Force	65%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	California	37%	L
9/26	Sat	@	*Northwestern	52%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Wisconsin	58%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Purdue	60%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Penn State	35%	L
10/24	Sat	@	*Ohio State	40%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Michigan State	47%	L
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Illinois	51%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	South Dakota State	75%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Iowa	37%	L
Favored: 7-5   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  To say the Gophers raced to a 7-1 start is a bit of an exaggeration. More accurately, they struggled to beat puny teams like Northern Illinois (31-27) and Montana State (35-23) at home, put up a fair fight against Ohio State, and did just as much as was needed to win three Big Ten games. The rest of the year wasn't the collapse that 0-5 appears at first blush, as they were competitive against Northwestern and Wisconsin. But Michigan whipped them and Iowa steamrolled them 55-0. Kansas finished the job, 42-21 and it was clear that more work needed to be done. Still, it beats going 1-11, that's for sure.

Minnesota will be a better team in 2009, which only means that they'll be able to match last year's record. Again they could jump to a strong start—5-1 after beating Wisconsin at home—before going into a "slump" i.e., facing tougher teams. Facing Penn State, Ohio State, and Iowa on the road is a daunting task. The 7-5 call gives them both close wins over Northwestern and Illinois, and if they split those instead the 6-6 cumulation projection makes more sense. It also assumed that Air Force and Wisconsin are beatable this year, so they could backslide. But I'll go with 6-6 and a bowl game again for the Gophers.

40. Boston College Eagles (ACC #8; Atlantic #4)     Polls: AP #40, USA/Coaches #49

2008 Results:    Record: 9-5   Bowl: L to Vanderbilt 16-14 (Music City)   Poll finish: AP #33; USA #35
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #32    Success: #19    Overall: #28
Recent bad luck has thrown a wrench into first year coach Frank Spaziani's plans for a smooth transition.
Offense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #44   Adj. Rush Yards: #56    Adj. Pass Yards: #84
The 2008 Boston College quarterback controversy was thought to be solved with the departure of Chris Crane, who threw 13 interceptions; soph Dominique Davis would take over after playing not much better than Crane, completing only 46% last season. But Davis was suspended, then transferred, leaving a major gap in the Eagle offense to be filled by either ex-fullback Codi Boek, 25-year-old ex-pitcher David Shinskie, freshman Justin Tuggle (why not Billy Flutie?). Rich Gunnell is the top returning receiver with 551 yards and 4 TDs. Luckily the running game looks to be powerful. Starting fullback James McCluskey is doubtful after an achilles' tendon tear and recovery setbacks, but Josh Haden returns at tailback and the important factor is sophomore Montel Harris who easily outperformed Haden with 900 yards and 5 TDs. The offensive line returns four starters; look for the Eagles to be a running team this season regardless of what scheme new head coach Frank Spaziani wants to implement.
Defense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #24    Adj. Rush Def: #3    Adj. Pass Def: #81
The defense had its share of bad luck, too, all at linebacker. First, Mike McLaughlin, a returning starter and the team's #2 tackler last year tore his achilles' tendon. His is healing much faster than fullback McCluskey's tear and he's expected back early in the season. But team leader Mark Herzlich won't be back after being diagnosed with cancer. Herzlich was all-ACC last season and led the team with 110 tackles, had 3 sacks among 13 tackles for loss, broke up 8 passes and had 6 interceptions. His value to the linebacking corps, the defense, and the entire team is immeasurable. The rest of the defense is in fair shape. The front four, which helped B.C. have one of the country's best rushing defenses, should be effective again with Jim Ramella and Austin Giles back, and Alex Albright returning from 2007. The defense actually ranked 18th in raw pass defense; it's only when corrected for the lousy passing teams they faced that they look bad. They lose Paul Anderson (6 int) but Wes Davis (2 int) returns at free safety and DeLeon Gause (1 int) at corner along with part-time starters Roderick Rollins (2 int) and Donnie Fletcher (3 int). With Anderson and Herzlich gone they'll see fewer interceptions, and they could be tested by good passing teams. The ACC thankfully has few but the Notre Dame game will be a challenge. How the defense responds to Herzlich's absence is the key.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter Ryan Quigley (39.6 average) and kicker Steve Aponavicius (14 of 21 FG) are both back for the Eagles, with Billy Flutie returning as pooch punter.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #98
Frank Spaziani's first year couldn't have started with worse luck than losing his starting quarterback, two starters tearning their Achilles' tendons, and the team leader being diagnosed with cancer. His first recruiting class, cobbled together in the wake of Jeff Jagodzinski's firing (for talking to NFL teams), is a sharp decline from last year's borderline top 25 class and ranks last in the ACC. Transition years often work out this way, and Spaziani will be able to prove himself as a recruiter next year. This year's class was not extensive, either, as last year's had 28 players. Still, there were no true blue chips to match Josh Haden from last year, though defensive tackle Dillon Quinn comes close.

Boston College 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Northeastern	86%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Kent State	72%	W
9/19	Sat	@	*Clemson	44%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Wake Forest	54%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Florida State	48%	L
10/10	Sat	@	*Virginia Tech	42%	L
10/17	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina State	59%	W
10/24	Sat	@	Notre Dame	40%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	Central Michigan	61%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Virginia	55%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina	45%	L
11/28	Sat	@	*Maryland	62%	W
Favored: 7-5   Projected: 7-5

2009 Season Outlook  The challenge last year was clear: adjust to life without Matt Ryan. The Eagles did a decent job, too, shrugging off an early disappointment to Georgia Tech to start 5-1. Again, after losses to UNC and Clemson they didn't give up, winning four in a row (and shutting out Notre Dame) to earn placement in the ACC championship game. For the second straight season, after beating Virginia Tech during the year they lost big in the conference finale. Sent to face Vanderbilt in that team's first bowl in 1,000 years they lost 16-14, breaking their 8-bowl winning streak.

Another trip to the ACC championship game looks doubtful for '09. Of course, it looked doubtful last year, too. But they've been picked by the media to finish last in the Atlantic division. I don't think it will be quite that bad, but doing better than .500 in the ACC would be an accomplishment.

With Herzlich still in the lineup and Davis back at quarterback they might have a shot. But now both the offense and the defense will be off-balance. If the two affected by Achilles' injuries don't come back they can kiss a bowl berth goodbye (I'm assuming McLaughlin returns within the first few games and that McCluskey will miss almost the entire year if not all). That said, it looks like a pretty good season given the circumstances. Going 4-4 in the ACC will get them to a bowl game with a game to spare. I don't see them doing any better than 7-5, and it might not be a great bowl, but beggars can't be choosers.

2009 Pre-season Rankings - #41 to #45: Auburn, Tulsa, Southern Miss, Arkansas, South Florida

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #41 to #46. To see the full list, click here.

41. Auburn Tigers (SEC #7; West #4)     Polls: AP #44, USA/Coaches: #39

2008 Results:    Record: 5-7   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #63    Success: #71    Overall: #65
With Tommy Tuberville gone the Tigers move on under Gene Chizik.
Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #104   Adj. Rush Yards: #65    Adj. Pass Yards: #97
Before the 2007 season's bowl game Tuberville tried to jump-start Auburn's lackidaisical offense by hiring Tony Franklin away from Troy to implement a spread offense. Over the 2008 season the two butted heads on how far to take it and it never worked out; the experiment failed with Auburn finishing in the bottom 20 in scoring offense. Now Chizik will try the same with Gus Malzahn from Tulsa, a team that had top 10 rushing and passing games in 2008. One of last year's starting QBs, Kodi Burns, will move to wide receiver and also handle the "Wildcat" snaps while the other, Chris Todd, is the starter. Neither did very well last year but Burns can run so this configuration might be for the best. The receivers last year didn't do much but Montez Billings returns along with tight end Tommy Trott and with Burns in the group should be better. (Note: Billings and WR Tim Hawthorne will miss the first four games of the season). The ground game wasn't much better than the passing game but Ben Tate managed 664 yards. The offensive line returns three starters: Ryan Pugh and Lee Ziemba, with Mike Berry and Byron Issum having shared right guard last year. Another year having to learn a new system can't be good, but on the other hand the offense can't get worse. They do have talent.
Defense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #13    Adj. Rush Def: #40    Adj. Pass Def: #30
The defense kept last year from becoming a Notre Dame/Michigan style 3-9 meltdown. In scoring defense Auburn was still among the best in the country despite giving up an uncharacteristic amount of yardage on the ground. The defensive line returns Michael Goggans and Antonio Coleman (6 sacks) at the ends but loses NFL pick Sen'Derrrick Marks at tackle. At linebacker they have Craig Stevens and Josh Bynes returning, and the secondary boast the return of the team's two top tacklers Zac Etheridge and Mike McNeil (note: he will be out the first half of the year) with corner Walter McFadden back as well, though likely starter Aaron Savage will miss his 2nd straight season with injury. Overall the defense looks strong and should improve with Chizik and coordinator Ted Roof's oversight.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Both punter Clinton Durst (42.1 yard average) and kicker Wes Byrum (11 of 19 FG) are back. Byrum struggled last year after his strong freshman season.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #26
Gene Chizik was a controversial hire as head coach to say the least. But despite his poor two-year record at Iowa State (5-19) he has a great track record as a defensive coordinator, holding the job during Auburn's 2004 13-0 season and Texas' 2005 13-0 campaign. The first one was the key, though: he's Auburn's guy, and that's why they hired him. They knew him. So far he's made some good moves in hiring assistants, such as Malzahn and Roof (who worked a miracle last season with Minnesota's defense). And in terms of recruiting so far Chizik is doing very well, with his first class on the cusp of the top 25 and better than Tuberville's '08 class when you subtract all the non-qualifiers. That's been an issue the last few years: at least a dozen of Tuberville's 2008 recruits never played for the team (including 5-star DE Raven Gray) and already six of Chiziks did not qualify, while Brandon Jacobs signed a baseball contract. So far the best recruits, such as defensive back Demond Washington and linebacker Eltoro Freeman, are safe but several good one such as DB Taikwon Paige are gone. Running back Onterio McCalebb didn't qualify in 2008, went to Hargrave Academy and was re-recruited for 2009; so far his academics are ok and his speed is even better.

Auburn 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Louisiana Tech	64%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	67%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	West Virginia	53%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	Ball State	59%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Tennessee	51%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Arkansas	46%	L
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	63%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Louisiana State	39%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	35%	L
11/7	Sat	vs.	Furman	77%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Georgia	40%	L
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	35%	L
Favored: 7-5   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  The troubles with the new offense were recognized within the first two games but it took a 3-2 win over Mississippi State to make everyone realize it was even worse than they'd imagined. After a narrow loss to defending national champ LSU and a win (14-12) over Tennesse, the Tigers were still 4-1 despite the offensive woes. But they lost their next four games, scoring 22 points or fewer each outing. During this stretch Tuberville fired Franklin and after that the offense had even less focus. A win over I-AA Tennessee Martin was their last victory, and a 36-0 drubbing by Alabama was the last straw for Tuberville and he resigned.

This year should be better but it, too, has the chance of feeling very disappointing by the end. The Tigers should win their first four games and could win their first seven, but four of the last five are pretty certain defeats. The tossups are at Tennessee and at Arkansas; they might split those and be 6-1 in mid-October. A 7-5 finish won't feel very good after that.

Lose to both UT and Arkansas and the projections of 6-6 will come true, but I'll go with 7-5. I don't see them doing worse than last year, though they could match it if West Virginia beats them. They'll more than likely be back in a bowl game, which is a start, and things should continue to improve if the team can retain its top-notch recruits.

42. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (Conference USA #1; West #1)     Polls: AP #50

2008 Results:    Record: 11-3   Bowl: Beat Ball State 45-13 (GMAC)   Poll finish: AP #30; USA #27
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #23    Success: #29    Overall: #24
The Golden Hurricane won't resemble their 2008 squad but might still have enough to contend for the conference title.
Offense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #7   Adj. Rush Yards: #8    Adj. Pass Yards: #9
Last season's offense was amazing, finishing in the top ten in adjusted scoring, rushing, and passing. The main reasons for those numbers—quarterback David Johnson (4,059 passing yards, 46 TDs), running back Tarrion Adams (1,523 yards, 14 TDs), and receiver Brennan Marion (1,112 rec. yards, 8 TDs) are all gone. If the Tulsa offense is indeed a "system" then their replacements should do well, too, though maybe not quite to the same extent. Jacob Bower will likely take over at QB; he saw very limited action last year. Jamad Williams rushed for 523 yards with an average similar to Adams' (both over 6.0 yards per carry). And at receiver Damaris Johnson (743 yards, 10 TDs) is back along with Slick Shelley (8 TDs), Trae Johnson (3), and starting fullback Charles Clay (9 TD catches, 2 rushing TDs). The bulk of the offensive line is gone but Tyler Holmes and Curt Puckett are back after starting all 14 games. This will undoubtedly no longer be a top-ten level offense, nor even top 25, but just how far it falls depends a lot on coaching; luckily the Hurricane had two co-offensive coordinators, Herb Hand and Gus Malzahn, minimizing the loss of Malzahn to Auburn.
Defense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #86    Adj. Rush Def: #79    Adj. Pass Def: #75
The defense wasn't that great in 2008 and didn't need to be most of the time. That will change as every game will depend on them this year. The defensive front three returns Wilson Garrison but loses two including Moton Hopkins (12 total tackles for loss). All three of the pure linebacker slots in the Tulsa 3-3-5 return starters: #1 tackler Mike Bryan (119 stops, 4 sacks), Tanner Antle, and George Clinkscale. Senior James Lockett (#2 tackler) returns to staff the "Spur" (safety/LB) position and free safety Charles Davis and corner Kenny Sims (8 pass break-ups) return to the secondary as well. With three other part-time starters the secondary should be much better. In all 8 of the top 10 tacklers return and 14 of the top 17. Will the improvement in the defense offset the losses on offense? Probably not, but Tulsa shouldn't have to rely on scoring 40 points to win, either.
Kicking Game (1 RS):  Michael Such returns at punter (43.0 average) after sharing the job with QB Johnson last year. Jarod Tracy hit 10 of 13 field goals last year, and this year Kevin Fitzpatrick or Matt Hulse will take over.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #56
Todd Graham is in his third year at Tulsa and has continued the success that Steve Kragthorpe built. His recruiting class this year is perhaps somewhat better than last year's, and ranks near the top of the conference. The top prospect in the class is quarterback Shavodrick Beaver from Wichita Falls, Texas, who was in for the spring to try to compete for the starting job this season.

Tulsa 2009 schedule & forecast
9/4	Fri	@	*Tulane	71%	W
9/12	Sat	@	New Mexico	61%	W
9/19	Sat	@	Oklahoma	12%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	Sam Houston State	80%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Rice	55%	W
10/14	Wed	vs.	Boise State	43%	L
10/21	Wed	@	*UTEP	54%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Southern Methodist	73%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Houston	57%	W
11/15	Sun	vs.	*East Carolina	55%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Southern Miss	47%	L
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Memphis	68%	W
Favored: 9-3   Projected: 7-5

2009 Season Outlook  In last season's preview SportsRatings picked Tulsa in every game except the Arkansas game, and it almost happened. In their first five wins the Golden Hurricane scored 45, 56, 56, 62, and 63 points. Held to 37 in a win at SMU, they roared back to pile 77 on UTEP and 49 on Central Florida. Then came the Arkansas game, which looked more favorable than it had pre-season with the Razorbacks looking pathetic. But playing at home they beat Tulsa 30-23. The disappointment carried over to next week when the Hurricane got a taste of their own medicine, losing 70-30 at Houston. They beat Tulane and edged Marshall to meet East Carolina in the CUSA championship game but lost 27-24. They saved their best performance for last, destroying Ball State 45-13, the one game where the defense looked the equal of the offense.

The non-conference schedule this year is quite something, including a road game against Oklahoma and Boise State at home. Both are probable losses, the Sooners game almost certain, but there is only one other likely loss on the schedule. Though there are some close conference games that cut the projected wins down to 7, they should be favored every CUSA game except at Southern Miss. All of this is conditional on the offense being somewhat competent. If it's not, then they could fall below bowl eligibility. But if the offense takes hold early and the defense shows big improvements they could give Boise State a run for their money. Being realistic, the offense is going to need some time to develop so the 7-5 cumulative projection is probably the most likely outcome. Still, given the personnel they had to replace that shouldn't be too disappointing.

43. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (Conference USA #2; East #1)    Polls: AP #45, USA #47

2008 Results:    Record: 7-6   Bowl: Beat Troy 30-27ot (New Orleans Bowl)  Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #60    Success: #63    Overall: #62
The Golden Eagles take a shot at the C-USA title.
Offense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #40   Adj. Rush Yards: #32    Adj. Pass Yards: #36
Who's back on offense? Lots of folks: the quarterback, the running back, two and a half starting receivers and three and a half starting offensive linemen. Who's gone? That's easier. Tight end Shawn Nelson (the #2 receiver) and Ed Morgan (#6 receiver, half-time starter). On the O-line, 3-year starter Ryan McKee and two part-time starters including Calvin Wilson who left the program in the summer. Ok, back to the returnees: QB Austin Davis threw for over 3,000 yards and 23 TDs and rushed for 508 more and 9 TDs. RB Damion Fletcher rushed for 1,313 yards and 10 TDs. At receiver DeAndre Brown had 1,117 receiving yards and 12 TDs; Gerald Baptiste was the #3 receiver and Freddie Parham the #5 (Fletcher was 4th). Brown has a foot injury but is expected to be better by kickoff day. The offense is pretty much loaded for bear with few if any weak points.
Defense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #74    Adj. Rush Def: #75    Adj. Pass Def: #73
The defense is as reloaded as the offense but wasn't nearly as effective last season. But improvement should follow with eight starters back. Give the front four credit for 3.5 starters back; Eric Phillips is gone but full-time starter Roshaad Byrd returns with Deddrick Jones, Anthony Gray (6 sacks), and Rolando Barragan, all of whom started half-time or more. At linebacker the top two tacklers from last season—Gerald McRath (137) and Tokumbo Abanikanda (84) are gone but Martez Smith returns. Like the D-line the secondary also returns nearly intact, missing only one part-time starter and returning C.J. Bailey, Eddie Hicks (4 int) and Chico Hunter along with half-time starter Andre Watson (3 int). Though the loss of the two top tacklers hurts all the bases are covered for improvement in this defense in terms of stopping the run and the pass.
Kicking Game (0 RS): Kicker/punter Britt Barefoot is gone after averaging 40.6 yards per punt and hitting 9 of 15 field goals. Justin Estes, who kicked in 2007 and hit 4 of 7 in '08, should take over as kicker unless sophomore Daniel Hrapmann ends up with the job. Backup QB and redshirt frosh Bret Jefcoat was expected to take over as punter but he transferred. This may leave the punting job to quarterback Davis, turning every 4th down into a very real fake threat. An interesting idea, though one of the other kickers will probably step into the role instead.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #40
Southern Miss football has been winning consistently for well over a decade. Head coach Larry Fedora wants to take it to the next level. In his 2nd year the recruiting class again tops the CUSA. Though this year's class has no blue chip to compare to DeAndre Brown from last year, receiver Justin Jordan, RB Kendrick Hardy, and defensive lineman Kyrhi Thornton (originally committed to South Florida) are all borderline blue chip prospects. Fedora's recruiting and coaching is already paying dividends.

Southern Miss 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Alcorn State	100%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	*Central Florida	64%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Virginia	58%	W
9/26	Sat	@	Kansas	38%	L
10/3	Sat	@	*UAB	64%	W
10/10	Sat	@	Louisville	58%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Memphis	67%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Tulane	78%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Houston	50%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Marshall	56%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Tulsa	53%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*East Carolina	47%	L
Favored: 10-2   Projected: 7-5

2009 Season Outlook  Last season was a 2-6 disaster than finished a very hopeful 7-6.

Wins over UL-Lafayette and Arkansas State didn't offset the disappointment of losses to Marshall, UTEP, Rice, and Memphis by a total of 21 points. But those close losses, and holding Auburn to 27 and Boise State to 24, pointed to a team that was much better than its lousy record. The Eagles exploded for 70 points against UAB, then beat Central Florida and East Carolina with defense, then beat SMU to even their slate. Their last four opponents scored an average of just under 9 points. The bowl game against Troy looked like an absolute tossup. SportsRatings predicted Troy 33-30 in overtime, but Southern Miss won 30-27 in overtime.

The Eagles know the first rule of scheduling a Division I-AA team: make it such a cakewalk that you can't go wrong. Instead of taking on a playoff-level team they went with Alcorn State, who went 2-10 last year. They can get away with it, too; they're a local opponent. Anyway after this gimme they have UCF and Virginia at home. Kansas on the road is their toughest game of the season. Then they have the meat of the CUSA schedule and every game is winnable. I have one loss at East Carolina and a tossup at Houston. Though the cumulative total is just 7-5, I think that should be treated as a lower end for sure. The Eagles have a slight chance at an undefeated season, though with the CUSA title game added in I don't think that can happen. Still, one can dream, and this could really be a dream season for Southern Miss if things go their way.

44. Arkansas Razorbacks (SEC #8; West #5)     Polls: AP #50, USA/Coaches #44

2008 Results:    Record: 5-7   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #68    Success: #55    Overall: #67
The improved Razorbacks navigate the difficult SEC West.
Offense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #56   Adj. Rush Yards: #66    Adj. Pass Yards: #23
Much-maligned Casey Dick went out on a high note, leading a comeback win over LSU on a 4th down TD pass. Michigan transfer Ryan Mallett is expected to step in an lead a renewed passing attack. He's leaner, having lost 25 pounds in the last year, and has all last year's top receivers back including tight end D.J. Williams (723 yards). But the ground game is what the Razorbacks have been famous for recently, and after a period of adjusting the offense to not having Darren McFadden it got rolling again with Michael Smith (1,072 yards, 8 TDs). Incoming USC transfer Broderick Green is eligible and will add to the attack, so don't think Arkansas is going exclusively pass-happy. The offensive line returns three starters and gets Mitch Petrus back from 2007 so they should greatly reduce last year's whopping 46 allowed sacks.
Defense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #76    Adj. Rush Def: #76    Adj. Pass Def: #56
The defense should improve vastly in 2009, especially against the run. All four starters return to the defensive line including tackle Malcolm Sheppard, who was 2nd on the team in tackles with 8 of them for loss plus 6.5 quarterback sacks. Top tackler Jerry Franklin returns at linebacker with half-time starters Freddy Burton and Wendel Davis, both of whom finished among the top six tacklers. The secondary was very well-stocked, too, before Isaac Madison tore his ACL this fall camp. Still, Elton Ford is back at safety after being injured late last season and half-time starters Ramon Broadway and Jerico Nelson cover the other corner and safety spot. Ford is doing well but may play behind Matt Harris who took over for him last year and finished 4th on the team in tackles. Even with Madison gone the team's top 10 tacklers return and this side of the ball has great potential.
Kicking Game (1 RS): After a great freshman year Alex Tejada lost his kicking job in '08 then regained it, finishing 4 of 9 on field goals. He's back but punter Jeremy Davis (43.2 yard average) isn't and junior Britton Forester is set to take over.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #12
Bobby Petrino had the thankless task of taking over Arkansas after losing McFadden and Felix Jones, with much of the rest of the team depleted. Implementing a new system on offense further complicated matters and the Razorbacks struggled mightily early on. Over the season, though, improvement was clearly on display. Also improved was Petrino's 2nd signing class. So far the non-qualifiers have been some of the lesser names, so it may stay near the top ten in quality. The big catch is 5-star cornerback Darius Winston, and there are many more consensus 4-stars in the class including running backs Knile Davis and Ronnie Wingo. Even if just based on last year's in-season improvement and the quality of recruiting Petrino will have Arkansas back in no time.

Arkansas 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Missouri State	89%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	*Georgia	45%	L
9/26	Sat	@	*Alabama	26%	L
10/3	Sat	N	Texas A&M	56%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	52%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Florida	0%	L
10/24	Sat	@	*Mississippi	26%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	Eastern Michigan	71%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	57%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	Troy	56%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	69%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*Louisiana State	37%	L
Favored: 7-5   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  2008 started off with a thud. Expectations weren't high after the loss of their superstar running back(s) but they weren't supposed to barely beat I-AA Western Illinois (28-24) and Louisiana-Monroe (28-27). This set the stage for blowout losses to Alabama, Texas, and Florida which showed the Razorbacks where they were in the national pecking order. They got a narrow win at Auburn that would have been significant any other year, but lost tight games to Kentucky and Mississippi and stood a dismal 3-5. They managed to beat undefeated Tulsa, and kept two more losses close and it was clear that they were at least being competitive; the running game had started to come together. Everything finally paid off in their season-ending upset of LSU. They were a lot better than they were at the start of the season, and with all the close losses could have been 8-4...or 0-12 if you take away the narrow victories.

This year the Razorbacks should return to winning, or at least become bowl eligible, with four non-conference games that they can win (though two might be a challenge) and three conference wins. They could surprise Georgia early at home but I wouldn't count on it, and while the LSU game could be close I think the Tigers will get revenge at home. Auburn is improved but they get them at home. With the Florida road game scratched from the realm of possibility the cumulative projection gives them a 6-6 slate but I think 7-5 will happen as the team will improve on both sides of the ball.

45. South Florida Bulls (Big East #3)      Polls: AP #45, USA/Coaches #40

2008 Results:    Record: 8-5   Bowl: Beat Memphis 41-14 (St. Petersburg Bowl)   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #41    Success: #48    Overall: #43
The Bulls aren't as good this year but that shouldn't matter in a weaker, parity-laden Big East.
Offense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #57   Adj. Rush Yards: #37    Adj. Pass Yards: #40
Matt Grothe had another one of those years. Nearly 3,000 yards passing, over 500 yards rushing, with 18 TD passes and his typical 14 interceptions. Of his fragmented receiving corps he loses #2 Taurus Johnson (6 TDs) but returns top WR Jessie Hester (579 yards) and Carlton Mitchell, A.J. Love, and Dontavia Bogan, who are #3 to #5. The running game return #2 rusher (Grothe was #1) Mike Ford, #3 Moise Plancher, and #5 Jamar Taylor (though Ford and Taylor will both miss part of the early season). So far, we have Grothe and an adequate if not electric supporting cast. But the offensive line is a big concern as four starters are lost. Jacob Sims started most games last year and Zach Herman was about half-time last year after being full-time in 2007. The good news—for 2010—is that none of the O-line's starters are seniors.
Defense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #34    Adj. Rush Def: #10    Adj. Pass Def: #53
The defense did its part last year, especially against the run. That's due in a large part to tackle George Selvie, who had 5.5 sacks, 8 tackles for loss, and 5 pass breakups all while being the focus of the opposing offensive line after his all-American year in 2007. Also back on the defensive line are Aaron Harris and Terrell McClain. With three starters back and a healthy Selvie in his senior year the rushing defense and pass rush should be even better. At linebacker Kion Wilson returns but they lose two starters including #1 tackler Tyrone McKenzie (13.5 tackles for loss, 8 passes broken up). The secondary did an adequate job considering teams couldn't run very well against the Bulls, thus making the pass a better option. Safety Nate Allen and corner Jerome Murphy are back to form the core of the unit. Overall on the defense nine of the top 14 tacklers return but the strength is definitely up front; get past the D-line and you might get somewhere.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Delbert Alvarado (39.7 average) returns to punt again for the Bulls and will likely take over as placekicker. Maikon Bonani (15 of 21 FG last year) was set to return, too, but an injury he suffered due to a freak accident at a theme park has him sidelined for the year. Alvarado was placekicker in 2007 before Bonani won the job early last year.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #25
Jim Leavitt has been building this program from nothing for a dozen years and he wants to see it get over the hump and win a Big East title. This year's recruiting class is a step in the right direction. It includes two excellent defensive linemen in JUCO Jason Pierre-Paul and freshman Ryne Giddins. One recruit, Carlos Savala, was expected to help on the offensive line but did not qualify academically.

USF 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Wofford	65%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Western Kentucky	75%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Charleston Southern	88%	W
9/26	Sat	@	Florida State	36%	L
10/3	Sat	@	*Syracuse	63%	W
10/15	Thu	vs.	*Cincinnati	58%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Pittsburgh	42%	L
10/30	Fri	vs.	*West Virginia	56%	W
11/12	Thu	@	*Rutgers	41%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Louisville	64%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	Miami (Florida)	47%	L
12/5	Sat	@	*Connecticut	53%	W
Favored: 8-4   Projected: 7-5

2009 Season Outlook  USF had another season where they rose high in the polls due to a winning streak then had a disappointing latter part of the year. They were 5-0 after beating N.C. State and held a victory over Kansas when they lost to Pitt. Two weeks later they lost to Louisville, then Cincinnati, then Rutgers bombed them 49-16. They stemmed the flow with a win over UConn but finished just 2-5 in their final seven games. A bowl win over Memphis gave them eight wins but the 2nd straight slump has to hurt.

The Bulls know how to schedule early games, that's for sure. This time around two of their first three games are against I-AA (FCS) teams, and the other is Western Kentucky who officially joins I-A (FBS) just this year. They go on the road to FSU after that, but then have two of their easier Big East opponents, meaning they should be 5-1 again at mid-season.

This year's "slump" won't be as bad. They should go 3-3 after the mid-point, with a decent chance to beat Miami at home. But it's just as likely they go 7-5 again since their pattern is getting upset in the late season. Also, their offensive line is very green (though the easy early schedule will help get it acclimated). The Bulls look bowl-bound again, mainly because the Big East is the Big Easy this season, but there's still not a huge chance of that bowl being of the BCS variety.

2009 Pre-season Rankings - #46 to #50: Nebraska, Wisconsin, East Carolina, BYU, West Virginia

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #46 to #50. To see the full list, click here.

46. Nebraska Cornhuskers (Big Twelve #8; North #3)     Polls: AP #24, USA/Coaches: #22

2008 Results:    Record: 9-4   Bowl: Beat Clemson 26-21 (Gator)   Poll finish: AP #29; USA #30
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #24    Success: #32    Overall: #26
Just when they were getting it back together the Cornhuskers have a rebuilding year of sorts.
Offense (4 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #14   Adj. Rush Yards: #43    Adj. Pass Yards: #15
Joe Ganz threw for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns in 2008, numbers that would have been inconceivable in Nebraska's heyday. But this is the new Nebraska, post-Solich and post-Callahan, and the quarterback actually throws the ball. Which is a problem this year as none of Ganz's potential successors have thrown more than a single pass in I-A ball. Zac Lee appears to have the job, but top receivers Nate Swift (10 TDs) and Todd Peterson have moved on; tight end Mike McNeill (442 yards, 6 TDs) is the top returning target. Gone at running back are Marlon Lucky, who began his senior year as a (2nd-tier) Heisman candidate and finished as the #2 rusher, and #3 rusher Quentin Castille who was kicked off the team in the summer, leaving Roy Helu (803 yards and 7 TDs) with little competition for carries. The offensive line is where most of the offense's returning starters reside, with three back from 2008: senior Jacob Hickman and juniors Keith Williams and Mike Smith.
Defense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #70    Adj. Rush Def: #58    Adj. Pass Def: #33
The defense allowed a lot of points compared to the yardage they gave up. The rushing defense was far from the "Blackshirts" ideal but they should improve with Ndamkong Suh (#1 tackler, 7.5 sacks, 11.5 tackles for loss, 2 int) and Pierre Allen (#3 tackler, 5 sacks) on the front four, with '07 starter Barry Turner back as well. Nebraska runs a 4-2-5 against pass-happy team (such as, most of the Big Twelve) and both starting linebackers are gone. The secondary in 5-man form loses just one starter, with safeties Larry Asante (#2 tackler) and Matt O'Hanlon (#4) back with corner Anthony West and nickel Eric Haag. Though the defense ranked a dismal 89th against the pass in raw yardage, when corrected for the type of teams they played the defense ranked a respectable 33rd. [Western Michigan, New Mexico State, Missouri, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Kansas State were all in the top 25 in passing yards, and five of them were in the top 10]. The weakness at linebacker won't make as much difference when in the nickel formation, and the front four looks good.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Kicker Alex Henery hit an outstanding 18 of 21 field goals last year, and with the departure of Dan Titchener (39.3 average) he may take over as punter, too.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #34
Bo Pelini's 2nd recruiting class is good, but not great in terms of national ranking. It places about 6th in the Big Twelve. If Nebraska is going to compete for national championships again—or at least Big Twelve conference championships—the recruiting is going to have to be consistently in the top 25. One important note, though: all of Pelini's signees for 2009 have qualified academically. The SEC has about ten teams with better recruiting this year than Nebraska, but their rankings keep falling as each recruit's transcript bites the dust. This year's recruit to watch is QB Cody Green, who could play backup this year, earn the starting spot, or redshirt. Speaking of redshirts, several linebackers from the 2008 class are helping fill the gaps at the position this season..

Nebraska 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Florida Atlantic	71%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Arkansas State	64%	W
9/19	Sat	@	Virginia Tech	37%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Lafayette	66%	W
10/8	Thu	@	*Missouri	41%	L
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Texas Tech	39%	L
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	61%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Baylor	39%	L
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma	18%	L
11/14	Sat	@	*Kansas	37%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Kansas State	59%	W
11/27	Fri	@	*Colorado	51%	W
Favored: 6-6   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  Ever since Nebraska really started to suck (a process that started under Solich and reached fruition under Callahan), each year the media buzz would be "are the Huskers back this year?" Early evidence usually suggested "Yes" until a certain point in the year when the answer became "No." That point is happening earlier and earlier each season as the college football world gets used to the idea of Nebraska just not being an important team.

So it was interesting that last year Nebraska managed to sneak up on people with a strong finish and their best year since Solich's last. The 'Huskers started 3-0 against outmanned competition, then lost at home to Virginia Tech, which was enough to make everyone quit paying attention. Two more losses followed, the only surprising thing being that Texas Tech needed overtime to beat them. But after that they started winning. Not over Oklahoma, of course, but everyone else they faced. Not that Iowa State and Baylor mattered, but when they beat Kansas that was a turning point. They were 6-4 and had actually beaten a team they were supposed to lose to. Two more wins and they went on to face Clemson in the Gator Bowl, which ended 26-21, a result I predicted right on the nose (mostly luck, I'll admit).

This year several publications are putting Nebraska in their pre-season top 25 and I'm not sure why. They don't return a lot of starters, and they weren't clearly a top 25 team last year. Lindy's has them #22, Athlon #16, and the pre-season coaches' poll #22. Maybe people figure that they have momentum from last year, that Pelini is going to have them better in his 2nd year, or that the Big Twelve North is ripe for the picking? All of these may be true but my numbers have them backsliding this year. They still have Virginia Tech on the schedule—on the road, even—and while Missouri and Texas Tech lose a lot of key people, so do the 'Huskers. Baylor will be better, Kansas will be good, and Oklahoma nearly unbeatable. So I have the Cornhuskers 6-6 and not a good chance of picking up wins to make it better than that.

I'm in the distinct minority in picking Nebraska to have a worse season this year. Pelini says the team is going to improve this year—even more than they improved last year. If that's the case, then they'll probably be in the Big Twelve title game, and one step further toward the goal of rebuilding the program into the one everyone used to fear.

47. Wisconsin Badgers (Big Ten #7)      Polls: USA/Coaches #44

2008 Results:    Record: 7-6   Bowl: Lost to Florida State 42-13 (Champs Sports)   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #50    Success: #61    Overall: #53
Wisconsin needs solutions at offense and defense; a strong kicking game is their foundation.
Offense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #41   Adj. Rush Yards: #13    Adj. Pass Yards: #93
The Badgers need to establish a quarterback. Though Dustin Scherer is back, he was hardly overwhelming in '08 after taking over from Allan Evridge, throwing just 6 TD passes. Redshirt freshman Curt Phillips, a dual-threat type, is in the mix to win the starting job. Running back P.J. Hill had 1,161 yards and went pro early but wasn't drafted; his production declined mid-year as John Clay's (884 yards) improved. The Badger system always produces on the ground, though this year they lose three offensive line starters including Kraig Urbic who unlike Hill was drafted (ironic after Hill blamed the O-line for his difficulties last year). Tight end Garrett Graham was the team's leading receiver with 540 yards; he returns along with receivers David Gilreath and Isaac Anderson but lose another tight end, Travis Beckum, to the NFL as well. With a confusing QB situation and offensive line questions the Badger offense is a work in progress.
Defense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #60    Adj. Rush Def: #19    Adj. Pass Def: #64
Wisconsin's rushing defense was stout last season but that could change. Just one starter—O'Brien Schofield—is back in the front four, and while #1 tackler Jaevery McFadden is back at linebacker they lose #2 DeAndre Levy (5 sacks) and #3 Jonathan Casillas. The secondary looks ready for a big improvement but there are some pitfalls. Three starters—Niles Brinkley, Jay Valai, and Chris Maragos—are back and the fourth slot is filled by Aaron Henry, who started the first 2 games last year before redshirting. Two who started in '07, seniors Aubrey Pleasant and Shane Carter, are backups but both are suspended and might not play while another backup, part-time starter Mario Goins, left the program in the summer. Not too long ago it appeared that the secondary would make a quantum leap forward; now, it depends on Pleasant and Carter's status. Without them the group still looks good but it's a lot deeper with them.
Kicking Game (2 RS):  Punter Brad Norton is pretty good (41.8 average) and kicker Philip Welch is very good (20 of 24 FG). Both return for the Badgers. Both are sophomores so they should be set in the kicking game for the next few years. At least one area of the team is consistent!
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #48
Is Bret Bielema overseeing the decline of the Wisconsin football program that was built up by Barry Alvarez? It may just be random fluctuations but he's gone from 11 regular season wins to 9 to 7 and each team looks less prepared. If they take the next step and finish 5-7 this season he'll be on the hot seat next year. His recruiting classes the last two years have been right in the middle of the Big Ten. The consensus standouts this class are receiver Kraig Appleton and defensive tackle Jordan Kohout.

Wisconsin 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Northern Illinois	68%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Fresno State	62%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Wofford	65%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Michigan State	43%	L
10/3	Sat	@	*Minnesota	42%	L
10/10	Sat	@	*Ohio State	36%	L
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Iowa	40%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Purdue	56%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Indiana	63%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Michigan	56%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Northwestern	48%	L
12/5	Sat	@	Hawaii	68%	W
Favored: 7-5   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  While some were putting Wisconsin in the top 10 pre-season (they were #13 in the AP, #12 coaches), SportsRatings noted that the previous year's 9-4 team was vastly overrated and the 2008 team would be worse. We put them #31 and even that turned out to be too optimistic, though we got their 7-5 record correct.

After three wins including a 13-10 victory over ranked Fresno State the Badgers were in the top 10. They then suffered four straight losses including a 48-7 drubbing by Penn State. By then the Fresno State win looked less impressive and a loss to Michigan even worse. But they regrouped and won four of their last five, still needing overtime to beat Cal Poly. They faced FSU in their bowl game and were drubbed 42-13.

Though the Badgers have lost a couple wins each year lately they shoudn't fall to 5-7 in 2009. In fact it almost looks like a repeat of last season. With only five road games the Badgers can start 3-0 pretty easily, with Wofford actually being more of a challenge than Northern Illinois. The first four Big Ten games could all be losses as they face their tougher opponents early; they should win four out of their last five games and the fifth, at Northwestern, is a close one. Last year our projection for the team was right on target, only missing the Fresno State win and the Iowa loss. Though the cumulative projection doesn't quite give them the 7th win I think 7-5 is how things will work out. When the offense is more settled and front seven on defense more experienced at the end of the season they might be able to pick off Northwestern for 8-4. Either way it looks like another bowl season, somewhere in Florida since that's where Wisconsin always ends up.

48. East Carolina Pirates (Conference USA #3; East #2)    Polls: AP #36, USA/Coaches #49

2008 Results:    Record: 9-5   Bowl: Lost to Kentucky 25-19 (Liberty)   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #65    Success: #38    Overall: #61
The Pirates want to repeat as CUSA champions, and have the talent back to do it.
Offense (9 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #84   Adj. Rush Yards: #94    Adj. Pass Yards: #62
Patrick Pinkney returns to ECU as a sixth year senior after throwing for 2,675 yards and 13 TDs last season. Pinkney and the offense as a whole were inconsisten in '08, something that should be helped by a veteran offensive line that returns all five starters--four seniors and one junior. At running back starter Brandon Simmons (7 TDs) departs but the #1 and #3 rushers, Norman Whitley and Jonathan Williams, are back. It's been a while since the running back situation at ECU was clear cut, and since both were suspended for spring neither might be the starter this year in favor of transfer Brandon Jackson. Meanwhile, fullback Kevin Gidrey moved to tight end. At receiver last year's top dog, tight end Davon Drew, departed but everyone else returns including Dwayne Harris who was a close 2nd in yardage with 654 and James Bryant who was suspended last October. In all the offense just needs more consistency—from Pinkney, the tailbacks, and the receivers—and hopefully a solid O-line will help keep everyone healthy and productive.
Defense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #39    Adj. Rush Def: #38    Adj. Pass Def: #32
The defense was the key to most of the Pirates' wins last year and should be up to the task again even if the offense needs less help. The front four returns three starters, seniors Jay Ross (5 sacks) and C.J. Wilson (10.5) along with junior Linval Joseph, while end Scotty Robinson started half of 2007. With that much experience back the Pirates could have a top 25 level rushing defense in 2009. At linebacker there are three seniors as well. Returning starters Nick Johnson (#1 tackler last season, 9 tackles for loss) and Jeremy Chambliss are joined by Chris Mattocks who replaces #2 tackler Pierre Bell. The secondary features just one senior, returning starter Van Eskridge (4 int) at free safety but junior Dekota Marshall is back at corner and Travis Simmons started 4 games at the other corner as well. Overall the defense looks very sound, as they were solid last year and have a lot of talent returning to cover their losses.
Kicking Game (1.5 RS): Punter Matt Dodge averaged 43.9 yards per punt last year (37.9 net) and returns. Also back is kicker Ben Hartman who was just 21 of 31 in field goals; he can kick them long (he made two 50+ yarders in his career) and has been dependable when the game is on the line but was just 5 of 12 outside the 40. Note: Hartman's status is unknown due to a hip injury. If he doesn't play then Ben Ryan or Dodge will likely take over.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #98
Coach Skip Holtz has his team believing. Going into his fifth year the team has seen their work and his philosophies pay off with big upsets and a CUSA championship, and Holtz was wooed by Syracuse but stayed put. His last few recruiting classes have ranked low for the conference, however. This year running back DaMonte Terry, an in-state recruit, is the most promising and could add his name into the hat at running back if they end up shorthanded this year. 

East Carolina 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Appalachian State	60%	W
9/12	Sat	@	West Virginia	47%	L
9/19	Sat	@	North Carolina	33%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Central Florida	63%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Marshall	54%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Southern Methodist	64%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Rice	60%	W
10/27	Tue	@	*Memphis	59%	W
11/5	Thu	vs.	Virginia Tech	43%	L
11/15	Sun	@	*Tulsa	44%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*UAB	69%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Southern Miss	52%	W
Favored: 8-4   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  ECU kicked off the season with two big upsets, beating Virginia Tech on a blocked punt and humbling highly-touted West Virginia the very next week 24-3. It may have been too much too soon as everyone was talking about the Pirates; they barely escaped with a win at Tulane and then lost in overtime to North Carolina State. Two more losses followed and the team was just 3-3 after such a promising start.

The next three games proved crucial. They beat Memphis then won two consecutive overtime games, UCF 13-10 and Marshall 19-16. After a loss to Southern Miss they again won three straight including the CUSA championship game over Tulsa 27-24, where the defense did an incredible job against a team averaging nearly 50 points a game. They lost to Kentucky 25-19 in a screwball Liberty Bowl as they were plagued by turnovers. Still, the season was a success.

This year the Pirates are stronger but might not win all the close games they did last year; 2008 could have been a 3-9 year worst case. Still, they should match last year's regular-season win total at 8-4. The opener vs. Appalachian State is a trap, of course—the Mountaineers still have Armanti Edwards and they'll be one of the best FCS teams again this coming season. But the Pirates should prevail. The other Mountaineers, West Virginia, will probably get revenge at home but ECU has a chance there, too. North Carolina on the road looks tough, too. But then the Pirates have five winnable games in a row, before facing Virginia Tech at home and Tulsa on the road and closing with UAB and Southern Miss. It should come down to the Tulsa and Southern Miss games as to whether ECU wins the East division. The cumulative projection is torn between 7-5 and 6-6, but with the talent this team has back 8-4 might be a low estimate.

49. Brigham Young Cougars (Mountain West #3)         Polls: AP #20, USA/Coaches #24

2008 Results: Record: 10-3 Bowl: L to Arizona 31-21 (Las Vegas Bowl) Poll finish: AP #25; USA #21
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #27    Success: #41    Overall: #31
The Cougars may face a near-rebuilding year in 2008 but should still finish high in the Mountain West.
Offense (4 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #24   Adj. Rush Yards: #73    Adj. Pass Yards: #6
BYU returns just four starters, but they're all excellent players which gives them hope that the offense can build around them: quarterback Max Hall is one of the best in the NCAA, finishing just shy of 4,000 yards with 35 TD passes and a 69% completion rate; tight end Dennis Pitta had over 1,000 receiving yards and 6 TD catches; Harvey Unga ran for 1,132 yards and 11 TDs; and tackle Matt Reynolds started all year as a freshman allowing just one sack. But the losses will hurt. Four starters who had a total of 12 years of starting experience are gone from the O-line, and likely new starter Jason Speredon is lost for the year with a shoulder injury. Another huge hit is the NFL departure of Austin Collie who caught 106 passes for 1,538 yards and 15 touchdowns last year. While Hall still has the dependable Pitta, the loss of Collie and the majority of the O-line will make this year a challenge.
Defense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #56    Adj. Rush Def: #55    Adj. Pass Def: #94
The defense was looking great until two more starters were lost after spring; then one announced his return, leaving the already-fair-enough rushing defense stronger but the porous pass defense worse. THe defensive line becomes a major strength with all three starters back. Russell Tialavea decided to go on his mission *after* the season, joining seniors Brett Denney and Jan Jorgensen. The linebacking corps is  solid, too, returning Matt Bauman (#1 tackler), Coleby Clawson (4 sacks), and Shawn Doman. The weak secondary was already looking questionable before corner Brandon Howard left the team; now senior free safety Scott Johnson is the only returning starter and once again the team looks vulnerable to the pass.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter C.J. Santiago (41.8 average) departs and sophomore Tyler Holt will take over while kicker Mitch Payne is back after hitting 10 of 14 field goals in '08.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #46
BYU finished at the top of the Mountain West again in terms of recruiting. With consensus blue chips in defensive back Craig Bills and linebacker Kyle Van Noy, head coach Bronco Mendenhall continues to bring in good new talent. Tight end Richard Wilson and running back Adam Hine are also highly-touted. But one of 2008's top recruits, DB Bernard Afutiti, is academically ineligible for the 2nd straight year, further underscoring the secondary's woes.

BYU 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	@	Oklahoma	10%	L
9/12	Sat	@	Tulane	69%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Florida State	42%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Colorado State	66%	W
10/2	Fri	vs.	Utah State	66%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*UNLV	58%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*San Diego State	68%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*TCU	40%	L
11/7	Sat	@	*Wyoming	65%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*New Mexico	60%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Air Force	60%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Utah	46%	L
Favored: 8-4   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  BYU kicked off 2008 with a strong win over I-AA power Northern Iowa, then nearly lost on the road to Washington who finished 0-12. At the time the Huskies didn't look that bad, so when the Cougars blanked UCLA 59-0 and Wyoming 44-0 BYU looked like the BCS buster many pundits predicted.

But the dirty secret was that BYU didn't play well way from home. This was revealed strikingly in a 32-7 loss at TCU which rattled the team. After all, they were supposed to go to a BCS bowl that year, right? They staggered through a few more wins before being crushed 48-24 at Utah. Once again they went to the Las Vegas bowl—certainly a disappointment compared to their aspirations. It showed, in a 31-21 loss to Arizona.

This year the expectations are not quite so sky-high. Playing Oklahoma in the opener and FSU on week three don't help matters. Other losses foreseen are, once again, TCU and Utah. But three of those four losses are home games, and BYU has shown to be extra-strong at home, giving them a chance in any of them. With the offensive line completely rebuilt a Mountain West title looks like a long shot, though, and if Hall struggles because of it the cumulative projection (just short of 6.5 wins) could be a reality. But more likely the Cougars gain strength as their O-line gains experience, and by the time of the Utah game they might be strong enough to beat the Utes. In any case they should be bowl-bound again, whether it's another year in Las Vegas or not.

50. West Virginia Mountaineers (Big East #4)     Polls: AP #32, USA/Coaches #31

2008 Results:    Record: 9-4   Bowl: Beat UNC 31-30 (Car Care)   Poll finish: AP #23; USA #26
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #38    Success: #27    Overall: #38
The Pat White era at WVU is over.
Offense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #63   Adj. Rush Yards: # 7    Adj. Pass Yards: #107
For four years Patrick White led the Mountaineer offense and to a bowl game win each time. Always an efficient passes, even in a somewhat disappointing senior campaign he still completed 66% of his attempts for nearly 2,000 yards and 21 TDs vs. 7 interceptions. On the ground of course he excelled and had nearly 1,000 yards and 8 TDs in 2008, ending as the all-time NCAA QB rushing leader. So it's not hard to imagine that the offense is in for a big adjustment with him gone. Senior Jarrett Brown has watched him do it for years and is ready to take over, though his style is different as he outweighs White by 50 pounds. The two top receivers are back: Alric Arnett (#1 in yards at 466, 6 TDs) and Jock Sanders (#1 in catches with 53, 7 TDs) who was suspended in spring but cleared to play. Despite Bill Stewart's intention—logical, given White's efficiency—to pass more, the run still rules in Morgantown, and Noel Devine is back to enforce that law after racking up 1,289 yards (6.3 average) in '08. The offensive line returns only one full-time starter, Selvish Capers at right tackle, while half-time starter Eric Jobe returns at center. Helping block are fullback Will Johnson and tight end Tyler Urban, both part-time starters last year. The pieces are there but the transition may be rough, especially with such a green O-line.
Defense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #20    Adj. Rush Def: #37    Adj. Pass Def: #55
The defense ended up doing a pretty good job last year, especially in preventing scoring. Chris Neild and Scooter Berry are back in the solid front three. The losses are significant at linebacker—#1 and #2 tacklers Mortty Ivy (3 int) and Quinton Andrews, but J.T. Thomas returns and between half-time starter Anthony Leonard and 2007 starter Reed Williams things are covered pretty well. The secondary could have been a disaster last year but didn't turn out that bad. This year with Brandon Hogan, Sidney Glover, and Robert Sands all one year wiser they might really have a strong unit. Though the top three tacklers are gone from last season's defense the next nine return and a year after exceeding expectations they should be even better.
Kicking Game (0 RS): The Mountaineers must replace Pat McAfee at both punter (44.7 average, 40.5 net) and kicker (17 of 20 field goals, all 36 PATs). He may be the 2nd most significant loss to the program, and certainly the 2nd most important "Pat" gone from the team. Senior Scott Kozlowski look like the new punter, while at kicker it will be either freshman Tyler Bitancurt or senior Josh Lider, who transferred from Division II Western Washington after the school dropped its football program last year.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #21
Bill Stewart's 2nd recruiting class is even better than his first, and the first time in years that they beat Pitt as the top team in the Big East recruiting-wise. Among the best this year is Eugene (Geno) Smith who is expected to take over as QB next year; he broke his foot in the summer and may redshirt. Other blue chips include RB Tavon Austin, wide receivers Logan Heastie and Deon Long, and defensive end Tevita Finau.

West Virginia 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Liberty	74%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	East Carolina	53%	W
9/19	Sat	@	Auburn	43%	L
10/1	Thu	vs.	Colorado	56%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Syracuse	62%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	Marshall	60%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Connecticut	57%	W
10/30	Fri	@	*South Florida	44%	L
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Louisville	62%	W
11/13	Fri	@	*Cincinnati	49%	L
11/27	Fri	vs.	*Pittsburgh	47%	L
12/5	Sat	@	*Rutgers	39%	L
Favored: 7-5   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  Highly-rated in the pre-season, last year got off to a rocky start as the team looked listless against I-AA Villanova and were humbled in game two against East Carolina 24-3. The unexpected offensive woes continued as they lost at Colorado 17-14 in overtime.

Five straight wins helped right the ship but none was that impressive; even beating Auburn wasn't worth much last year, but a 35-13 win over UConn put them in control of the Big East. But losses to Cincinnati (overtime) and Pitt (2nd year in a row) spoiled their BCS dreams for good. A great bowl game win over North Carolina capped a decent year but it was far from what was hoped for.

As hard as life after Steve Slaton was, life after Pat White could be even more difficult, at least for the time being. The first half of the season is friendly enough, with home rematches of East Carolina and Colorado, a road game at Syracuse, and Marshall and UConn in Morgantown. The trip to much-improved Auburn might be their only trip-up and a 6-1 start is possible, even likely. Then come the tough games, and the close games that will determine how successful the year looks from a December vantage point. Cincy on the road and Pitt at home could be close losses, and the Mountaineers could finish 1-4 for a 7-5 tally. The cumulative projection doesn't even quite put them there, leaving the record even at 6-6.

It's a tough call given the offensive line's losses and a whole new look on offense. But one things that should give fans hope is that the offense will be at its worst during the easy half of the season, and may have hit its groove but the time the tough games roll around. While this means they might drop the East Carolina game, they could pick up two or three more wins in the 2nd half and go 8-4 or even 9-3. I think 7-5 is still the most realistic finish, then 8-4, but either way they'll be in a bowl somewhere which won't be the same without White in uniform but you have to move on.

2009 Pre-season Rankings - #51 to #55: Northwestern, NC State, Troy, South Carolina, Purdue

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #51 to #55. To see the full list, click here.

51. Northwestern Wildcats (Big Ten #8)     Polls: AP #44, USA/Coaches #46

2008 Results:    Record: 9-4   Bowl: Lost to Missouri 30-23ot (Alamo)   Poll finish: AP #31; USA #29
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #47    Success: #49    Overall: #44
Some big names are gone on offense but the defense should help pick up the slack.
Offense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #65   Adj. Rush Yards: #52    Adj. Pass Yards: #63
When people talk about an offense's "skill" positions, the unspoken implication is that other jobs are "unskilled." Though fullback and tight end can fall into the latter category if they are primarily blockers, generally the offensive line jobs are the "unskilled" slots. If that's the case then Northwestern returns most of its unskilled labor, and almost none of its skilled starters. Four starters are back on the offensive line: Center Ben Burkett, Al Netter and Desmond Taylor at tackle, and Doug Bartles at right guard. After that, there's not much more. Between receivers Jimmy Ebert (#5 in receiving yards), Andrew Brewer (#6), and tight end Josh Rooks (#9) we'll give them another offensive starter and one total "skill" position. What did they lose? Their top three receivers who combined for 170 catches, nearly 2,000 yards, and 12 TDs; running back Tyrell Sutton, a four-year presence at running back; and C.J. Bacher, another oft-injured multi-year starter at quarterback. Senior Mike Kafka should be a fine replacement, as he's been here for years, completed 70% of his passes last year, and can run the ball like mad (217 yards against Minnesota last year). Junior Stephen Simmons is next in line at running back and is much more of a downgrade it seems. The remaining talent will fill the holes in the "skills" spots and it's a lot more diluted, but the line should help ease a major transition.
Defense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #30    Adj. Rush Def: #31    Adj. Pass Def: #95
The defense should help ease the offensive transition, too. The front four has two starters back, Corbin Bryant and all-Big Ten Corey Wootton, who was planning to go pro until he tore his ACL in the bowl game. At linebacker they lose #2 tackler Prince Kwateng and key reserve Malcolm Arrington but have starters Nate Williams and Quentin Davie back. The secondary is where the defense is really stocked: safety Brad Phillips was the team's #1 tackler last year and had 3 interceptions; Brendan Smith is the other safety and was the #3 tackler; and corners Sherrick McManis and Jordan Mabin combined to break up 17 pass attempts. They didn't face many pass-heavy teams last year and gave up a lot of yards relative to that, but held Juice Williams to 212 yards and Chase Daniel to 200 in their last two games and should be a lot better this year.
Kicking Game (1 RS): The Wildcats lose kicker Amado Villarreal, who hit 20 of 25 field goals in 2008 but punter Stefan Demos (39 yard average) is back. True freshman Jeff Budzien may take over placekicking chores.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #77
Pat Fitzgerald has the attitude that Northwestern should always be able to compete for the Big Ten title, regardless of the year or particular situation. The reality is that quality players have to reach a "critical mass" at NU before they have one of their better years. But last year was a surprise, so maybe Fitzgerald is on to something. His recruiting classes have been consistent, and in the lower reaches of the Big Ten but not dead last. From that pool, with stricter standards than most schools, Northwestern has to find a way to win. This year's crop of talent includes offensive lineman Patrick Ward and DL Davon Custis, two prospects that are just short of being consensus blue chips, which are few and far between here.

Northwestern 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Towson	87%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Eastern Michigan	69%	W
9/19	Sat	@	Syracuse	62%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Minnesota	48%	L
10/3	Sat	@	*Purdue	47%	L
10/10	Sat	vs.	Miami (Ohio)	79%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Michigan State	34%	L
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Indiana	69%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Penn State	38%	L
11/7	Sat	@	*Iowa	31%	L
11/14	Sat	@	*Illinois	38%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Wisconsin	52%	W
Favored: 6-6   Projected: 7-5

2009 Season Outlook  NU wasn't supposed to be good last year but they started off 5-0. No one was impressed. Maybe it's because their victims were Syracuse, Duke (by 4), Southern Illinois, Ohio (16-8), and Iowa (by 5) before the Hawks got their game going. They went 2-3 over the next five games, losing to Indiana but beating a high-flying Minnesota squad. To cap the year off they beat Michigan and Illinois to finish 9-3. Due to fan-base politics, they were relegated to the Alamo Bowl against Missouri and put up a great fight (I called for the upset since Missouri was sure to fall victim to the "disappointment syndrome") but lost in overtime.

This year is bound to see some decline. 9-3 doesn't grow on trees, especially at Northwestern, and the talent they lose on offense is considerable. But that doesn't preclude another fast start, which looks to be built in to their schedule. Four of the first six should be near-certain wins, and the other two are conceivable victories, too; the 'Cats may kick off 2009 at 6-0! More likely it's 4-2 or 5-1, and after that there aren't many wins on the board. Indiana at home looks ripe and maybe the Badgers. Overall that's 6-6, by favorites or 7-5 by cumulative projection. The Wildcats could even go 8-4, but 9-3 would be very remarkable in what should be a rebuilding year. Fitzgerald wants his program to be the type that "reloads" rather than rebuilds, but on the bright side their bowl opponent should be easier this season and they could win their first post-season game since 1948.

52. North Carolina State (ACC #9; Atlantic #5)      Polls: AP #39, USA/Coaches #43

2008 Results:    Record: 6-7   Bowl: Lost to Rutgers 29-23 (Papajohns.com)   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #55    Success: #42    Overall: #51
The Wolfpack are better than last year but might not do any better in an improved ACC.
Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #45   Adj. Rush Yards: #42    Adj. Pass Yards: #78
Russell Wilson's 17 touchdown passes are somewhat impressive, but his *one* interception in 275 attempts is amazing, especially for a freshman quarterback. Wilson, who added 4 rushing TDs, returns along with top receivers Owen Spencer and Jarvis Williams (1,123 yards and 9 TDs combined) and tight end George Bryan. Ted Larsen, Jeraill McCuller, and Jake Vermiglio return on the O-line but top rusher Andre Brown (7 TDs) left for the NFL. #2 Jamelle Eugene is back and Toney Baker (leading rusher in 2006) returns after two years off due to knee problems.
Defense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #62    Adj. Rush Def: #72    Adj. Pass Def: #113
The defense had problems last season and is already plagued with them this year while trying to upgrade the unit. The front four is doing pretty well with three senior starters back—Shea McKeen, Alan-Michael Cash, and Willie Young (12.5 total tackles for loss)—and a fourth senior, LeRoy Burgess, completing a strong line. The linebacker situation was looking great, too, before star Nate Irving (10 tacklers-for-loss, 4 int) was involved in a summer car accident and lost for the season. Top tackler Ray Michel returns and Irving understudy Dwayne Maddox will fill in well but between Irving and Robbie Leonard they lose a lot from '08. The secondary was poor last year and loses two full-time starters as well as projected starter Dominique Ellis, who transferred. But with DeAndre Morgan back and Justin Byers and Clem Johnson together they have two returning starters and several others with experience to fill the gaps. The loss of Irving is a huge blow to a defense trying to improve but the front seven still looks very good. The secondary almost has to improve, too.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Kicker Josh Czajkowski connected on 16 of his 19 field goal attempts last year and is back to do it again for the Wolfpack. Punter Bradley Pierson (38.8) is gone, with senior Jeff Ruiz or freshman Chris Ward set to take over.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #33
Tom O'Brien's last two recruiting classes have been solid, though last season's had more "big names" on it. This time there aren't any consensus blue chips but just a lot of potentially very good players, none of whom really stand out as the top recruits.

NC State 2009 schedule & forecast
9/3	Thu	vs.	South Carolina	54%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Murray State	93%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Gardner-Webb	84%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	Pittsburgh	47%	L
10/3	Sat	@	*Wake Forest	41%	L
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Duke	61%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Boston College	42%	L
10/31	Sat	@	*Florida State	34%	L
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Maryland	62%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Clemson	44%	L
11/21	Sat	@	*Virginia Tech	35%	L
11/28	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina	39%	L
Favored: 5-7   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  The Wolfpack looked miserable at times last year; one was when they lost to South Carolina 34-0. Another was the 2-6 start that left them 0-4 in the ACC. But they had good moments as well, such as their overtime upset of East Carolina and finishing the season 4-0 with consecutive wins over Wake Forest, North Carolina, and Miami.

This year's schedule is very, very kind. The Wolfpack play two FCS teams back-to-back and have only four road games. Still, it might not be enough to improve upon last year's six wins.

Four home games kick off the season and N.C. State could find themselves 4-0 with a bit of luck. Many of their ACC brethren are improved more than the Wolfpack, though, leading to several tough games even at home. Could this be the opposite of last year? A strong start and a disappointing finish?

The cumulative projection adds up to six, almost seven, wins because of the two near-gimmes. Figuring that the offense is going to progress quite a bit while the defense really ought to, I'd say that 7-5 is a reasonable expectation. But they could slip back to 6-6 which doesn't get them to a bowl game due to the double shot of cupcakes they built into their slate.

53. Troy Trojans (Sun Belt #1)     Polls: AP #50, USA/Coaches #57

2008 Results:    Record: 8-5   Bowl: L to Southern Miss 30-27ot (New Orleans Bowl)   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #59    Success: #64    Overall: #60
Troy is the class of the Sun Belt once again.
Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #51   Adj. Rush Yards: #71    Adj. Pass Yards: #43
Levi Brown took over at quarterback when Jamie Hampton was hurt last year; they ended with similar completion percentages and yards per attempt, but where Brown was much better was TD/INT ratio. His was 15 to 3 whereas Hampton was 9 to 8. Hampton redshirted so Brown will be QB full time, and he has some good receivers back including Jerrel Jernigan who was last year's team leader with 868 yards. Starter Cornelius Williams returns as well, but the biggest coup was getting Josh Jarboe from Oklahoma where he was kicked off the team for a 'thuggish' YouTube rap video. But Troy's spread isn't the pass-only variety: DuJuan Harris rushed for over 1,000 yards and 11 touchdowns last year. The offensive line has three starters back and with the quarterback issue settled the offense should be as good or better than last season.
Defense (4 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #61    Adj. Rush Def: #68    Adj. Pass Def: #37
The defensive line loses two starters but returns Brandon Lang and Cameron Sheffield who combined for 16 sacks. Two starters are back at linebacker, too, and they were the team's #1 and #2 tacklers last season, Boris Lee (126) and Bear Woods (108). The secondary is the only relatively weak spot. The Trojan pass defense was strong last year but they lose all four starters (when in standard 4-3 formation) at corner and safety including Sherrod Martin (4 int). Senior Jorrick Calvin (9 passes broken up) was set to return at one cornerback slot but he's academically ineligible for '09. The defense returns 80% of the 2nd and 3rd string and is stronger except for the secondary, which is a major trouble spot. 
Kicking Game (2 RS): Will Goggins and Sam Glusman return to punt and placekick for the Trojans. Goggans averaged 39.2 yards per punt last year while Glusman hit just 20 of 29 field goals (after making the first 12) and missed 4 extra points.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #49
Troy's recruiting is out of this world for the Sun Belt. The Trojans outrecruit several BCS schools each year and are far and away #1 in their conference this time around. Larry Blankeney has been at Troy since it was a Division II school. They moved up to Division I-AA (FCS), competed for championships there, then made the move to I-A (FBS). How long will it be before they make the break from the Sun Belt? This year the Trojans went crazy with defensive lineman, recruiting a slew of them including their very best recruits Antonio Harper, Eugene Kinlaw, and Riley Flowers. Unfortunately a number of recruits had to go the JUCO route after not qualifying, knocking the class' rating back down to earth.

Troy 2009 schedule & forecast
9/3	Thu	@	Bowling Green	57%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Florida	0%	L
9/19	Sat	vs.	UAB	68%	W
9/26	Sat	@	*Arkansas State	55%	W
10/6	Tue	vs.	*Middle Tennessee St.	64%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Florida International	56%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*North Texas	85%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Louisiana-Monroe	72%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Western Kentucky	73%	W
11/14	Sat	@	Arkansas	44%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Florida Atlantic	69%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*Louisiana-Lafayette	57%	W
Favored: 10-2   Projected: 7-5

2009 Season Outlook  Troy played perhaps the toughest non-conference schedule in the nation last year, with games at Ohio State, LSU, and Oklahoma State all on the docket. They did pretty well against the Buckeyes, staying with them most of the game and losing 28-10. Oklahoma State took revenge on them for beating them in 2007; the final was 55-24. At LSU they dominated the first half, leading by four touchdowns at one point before LSU amazingly rallied to win 40-31.

In the Sun Belt Troy took care of business other than being upset 31-30 by ULM. At 8-4 they faced Southern Mississippi in the New Orleans Bowl, where I made my famous "this game is too close to decide" pick but thought Troy would win in OT. Instead they lost in OT.

For some reason the pre-season publications are down on Troy, ranking them far lower than they finished last season. Lindy's puts them at #83, Athlon #75. At least Phil Steele puts them #54. Is it anti-Sun Belt bias? Not sure, but this team is surely at least an average team in the NCAA. And they should have a very good year despite playing Florida in the swamp and having a troublesome secondary. Every other game is winnable and they should be fairly-to-very heavy favorites in 10 games. If they run into a few ULM-type upsets they might go 7-5, but I think that's unlikely. Winning at Arkansas is a stretch but if they do it they could be 11-1. Though they play seven road games I think they'll go 9-3, thus allowing for one unforeseen result.

54. South Carolina Gamecocks (SEC #9; East #4)     Polls: AP #49, USA/Coaches: #37

2008 Results:    Record: 7-6   Bowl: Lost to Iowa 31-10 (Outback)   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #37    Success: #36    Overall: #37
Is it time to call Steve Spurrier the most overrated coach in America, or is South Carolina the toughest job?
Offense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #61   Adj. Rush Yards: #97    Adj. Pass Yards: #49
Quarterback Stephen Garcia is a microcosm of head coach Steve Spurrier's tenure at South Carolina: long on promise but sputtering, mixed results. Held out of his first spring session he redshirted, then more trouble got him suspended all spring and summer before he made his debut last year, playing behind Chris Smelley (14 TDs, 15 int). His performance was mixed in his three starts and rotation play, sometimes showing why he was so highly-touted out of high school, other times throwing interceptions (8 on the year vs. 6 TDs). With Smelley now an Alabama baseball player Garcia is ready to take the reins for good, but the two top receivers are gone. The next two, Moe Brown and Jason Barnes (3 TDs combined) are back, and the offensive line returns three starters and should be better after allowing 39 sacks last year. But the running game again looks to be anemic with leading rusher Mike Davis gone (Garcia was #2) and it might be another frustrating year at SC for Garcia.
Defense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #21    Adj. Rush Def: #20    Adj. Pass Def: #10
If the offense was plagued by quarterback rotations and inconsistency, the defense was a rock by comparison, holding teams under 30 points a game all season until Florida scored 56. The rushing defense was solid and three starters are back in the front four, with some caveats. Cliff Matthews is back at one end, Ladi Ajiboye returns at tackle but he's suspended for the first three games. Nathan Pepper returns at the other tackle but has ongoing knee problems. If everything works out the rushing defense should remain solid. At linebacker they lose one starter and move another to the secondary, leaving Eric Norwood (9 sacks) the only returnee. The secondary did a great job last year but loses three starters including top tackler Emmanuel Cook and draft picks Captain Munnerlyn and Stoney Woodson. Chris Culliver (3 int) returns and Darian Stewart (8 pass break-ups) moves in from linebacker.
Kicking Game (1 RS):  Putner Spencer Lanning returns with his decent 42.1 average and should take over placekicking chores from Ryan Succop (20 of 30 FG).
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #13
Back to my opening question: Is Spurrier hopelessly overrated or is South Carolina a hopeless program? Because if he's as great as they say he should have the school competing for national championships by now, or at least finishing in the top 25. Instead he's been 7-6, 6-6, 8-5, and 7-5 going back four seasons. See all those other instant turnarounds going on across the country? Why is it taking so long for Spurrier? Maybe the answer is: South Carolina is stuck in a rut. They've had two of the most high-profile coaches in college football history back-to-back with not much to show other than not going 0-11 like they did in Holtz's first year. He performed an "instant turnaround" to 8-4 but it didn't stick. Spurrier hasn't been able to take the program higher since then, complaining about the administration blocking his recruits like they never would at Florida. Perhaps the world of SEC football is too much for South Carolina, even with a coach like Spurrier at the helm.

As an example, this year's recruiting class is top-notch, easily in the top 25 in the nation. But still it's only average for the SEC this year. At least four of his recruits so far (as of August 30) did not qualify, and one (RB Ben Axon) wasn't admitted due to a marijuana arrest. That still leaves some incredible talent like safety Stephen Gilmore, nearly a super-blue chip prospect, and several other consensus blue chips. If this class reaches its potential the team can't help but soon be loaded, but then again, so too will the Gamecocks' opponents.

South Carolina 2009 schedule & forecast
9/3	Thu	@	North Carolina State	44%	L
9/12	Sat	@	*Georgia	33%	L
9/19	Sat	vs.	Florida Atlantic	67%	W
9/24	Thu	vs.	*Mississippi	30%	L
10/3	Sat	vs.	South Carolina St.	73%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	58%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Alabama	23%	L
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	46%	L
10/31	Sat	@	*Tennessee	46%	L
11/7	Sat	@	*Arkansas	43%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Florida	1%	L
11/28	Sat	vs.	Clemson	43%	L
Favored: 3-9   Projected: 5-7

2009 Season Outlook  Last year was pegged as another possible breakout year, by SportsRatings and some other, and a 34-0 win over NC State seemed to bear that out. But a loss to Vanderbilt was perplexing, and a close loss to Georgia left them 1-2. They came back, though, winning four straight albeit unimpressively, beating Wofford by 10, UAB by 13, and Ole Miss and Kentucky by 7 apiece. A close loss to LSU was their second missed opportunity to "arrive" in 2008. They beat Tennessee and Arkansas back to back but both were having poor seasons. Still, SC stood at 7-3 before a humiliating crush by Florida and a loss to in-state rival Clemson dropped them to 7-5. The writing was on the wall before the Outback Bowl; Iowa came in on an upswing, the Gamecocks on a down note, and it played out just like I figured, down to a missed field goal away from my 31-13 prediction.

This season doesn't look promising. The team is depleted on offense and missing some key parts on defense. There was attrition in the reserve ranks too. The SEC will be even better this year, with Arkansas and Tennessee much improved. It's a bad year to be on a decline. They could win a few more than those designated here and meet the 5-7 projection, but I don't think they'll be bowl-bound this year.

55. Purdue Boilermakers (Big Ten #9)

2008 Results:    Record: 4-8   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #58    Success: #90    Overall: #59
The Tiller era is over along with the Painter era and the offense must reboot.
Offense (4 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #58   Adj. Rush Yards: #50    Adj. Pass Yards: #52
Curtis Painter's senior year was disappointing, with only 2,400 yards following two near-4,000 yard seasons and just 13 TD passes. He was also benched a few times by head coach Joe Tiller but that puts him in good company. Painter and backup QB Justin Siller are gone leaving Joey Elliot to start this year under new head coach Danny Hope. Gone also is Kory Sheets (1,185 yards, 16 TDs), a force for so many years but Jaycen Taylor returns from ACL injury to have his shot at a 1,000 yard season. Pretty much all the starting receivers are gone including Greg Orton and Desmond Tardy but Keith Smith was #3 in receptions and yardage. The offensive line is a bit of good news, losing only one starter. Seniors Zach Jones and Eric Hedstrom are back with four other part-time starters from a patchwork line that should see a more consistent roster this year and help the new Boilermaker offense adjust.
Defense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #54    Adj. Rush Def: #70    Adj. Pass Def: #24
The defensive returns Ryan Kerrigan and Mike Neal and senior Keyon Brown steps up to permanent starter at end to help shore up a weak rushing defense. At linebacker the Boilermakers lose #1 tackler Anthony Heygood but #3 Joe Holland is back along with Chris Carlino who took over a starting spot as a true freshman. The secondary is in good shape; back from a top-25 level pass defense is 6th-year senior safety Torri Williams (#2 tackler, 2 int) and corners Brandon King and David Pender who combined to break up 21 passes. Again the pass defense looks to be the group's strength but they should improve across the board with the bulk of the better reserves back too.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Chris Summers returns this year after punting (38.4 average) and sharing placekicking duties. But his net average was under 30 yards per punt and he hit only 5 of 10 field goals before being replaced by Carson Wiggs, who will remain the starting kicker and short-distance punter.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #79
New coach Hope's 2009 recruiting class ranks pretty low for the Big Ten, though it's his first one since taking over. There was a true transition year in 2008 as Hope had been announced as Tiller's successor, but that can harm as well as help in recruiting. In any case he's better judged by next year. Frosh running back Al-Terek McBurse is the Boilermakers hope for the future at running back after the Sheets/Taylor era.

Purdue 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Toledo	61%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Oregon	33%	L
9/19	Sat	vs.	Northern Illinois	66%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	40%	L
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Northwestern	53%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Minnesota	40%	L
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Ohio State	41%	L
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Illinois	44%	L
10/31	Sat	@	*Wisconsin	44%	L
11/7	Sat	@	*Michigan	47%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Michigan State	40%	L
11/21	Sat	@	*Indiana	61%	W
Favored: 4-8   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  Purdue didn't have a team that was as bad as they finished—they were a "good" 4-8. They took Oregon into overtime before losing at home and won a close match with Central Michigan before going into five-game tailspin where the offense couldn't produce. All five losses were to bowl teams, however, including Ohio State and Penn State. They won a shootout with Michigan, lost to two more bowl teams, and clobbered Indiana 62-10 in Tiller's last game.

This year they look like a good 4-8 team again. With the losses on offense they don't stand a great chance of beating Oregon or Notre Dame this year either, especially as the team will be at its worst early on. Most of the Big Ten is a step ahead of the Boilermakers this year. They play at Michigan so repeating that win is less likely, but having Northwestern at home should help and they'll beat Indiana again in the finale. The October-to-November stretch consists of fairly close contests so it adds up to just under six wins in the cumulative projection but it will take a bit of luck for Purdue to go to a bowl game in 2009.

2009 Pre-season Rankings - #56 to #60: Houston, Michigan, Central Michigan, Tennessee, Virginia

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #56 to #60. To see the full list, click here.

56. Houston Cougars (Conference USA #4; West #2)        Polls: AP #50, USA/Coaches #57

2008 Results:    Record: 8-5   Bowl: Beat Air Force 34-28 (Armed Forces)   Poll finish: USA #40
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #53    Success: #51    Overall: #52
The Cougars are back with their high-powered passing attack.
Offense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #16   Adj. Rush Yards: #64    Adj. Pass Yards: #2
Of all the explosive passing offenses in the country Houston with Case Keenum was right up there with the best of them. Keenum topped 5,000 yards and had 44 TDs against 11 interceptions while completing 67% of his attempts. Tyron Carrier caught 9 of those TDs and finished with over 1,000 yards receiving; 5 others return that had over 400 yards though #2 receiver Mark Hafner (11 TDs) departs. Houston wasn't just a passing team; they had a respectable ground game led by Bryce Beall's 1,247 yards and 13 touchdowns, while Keenum ran for seven touchdowns himself. Add on offensive line that returns three starters and it looks like Houston's O will pick up where they left off last season but even stronger.
Defense (4 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #98    Adj. Rush Def: #93    Adj. Pass Def: #96
The D is another matter. Poor at best last year they may decline as much as the offense elevates, making the team a wash as far as improvement is concerned. The front four return just one starter, Isaiah Thompson, to a line that couldn't stop the run last year. They need to find a way to pressure the pass minus Phillip Hunt's 14 sacks but one potential answer, end Mohammed Usman, is now off the team. At linebacker Marcus McGraw, the team's top tackler in 2008, returns with Matt Nicholson. Though they lose one starter, #3 tackler Cody Lubojasky, his replacement is #4 tackler C.J. Cavness so this is clearly the strength of the defense. The passing D was as bad as the rushing D last year and the secondary returns just one starter, senior Brandon Brinkley who had 4 interceptions. Backup Loyce Means also had 4 interceptions and helps fill out the corner slot but with only 4 of their top 12 tacklers back the defense in again a questionable one.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Chase Turner booted a 45.5 yard average for the Cougars last year and returns at punter along with both of last year's kickers. Ben Bell will battle it out again with Jordan Mannisto; Bell connected on 10 of 15 while Mannisto hit 2 of 3. Neither made any over 40 yards.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #54
Kevin Sumlin's second recruiting class is a big improvement on 2008's slight group, a good sign now that he's settled in at head coach. The group is near the top of the CUSA, arguably behind only Southern Miss. While the top players—tackle Roy Watts and receiver A.J. Dugat—aren't any more highly-touted than last year's best (many of whom didn't qualify such as Jarvis Smith or are no longer with the team like Anthony Lewis) but there are a lot more above-average recruits than last season and 2010 looks even better so far.

Houston 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Northwestern State	80%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Oklahoma State	28%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	Texas Tech	36%	L
10/3	Sat	@	*UTEP	50%	W
10/10	Sat	@	Mississippi State	59%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Tulane	67%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Southern Methodist	69%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Southern Miss	50%	L
11/7	Sat	@	*Tulsa	43%	L
11/14	Sat	@	*Central Florida	54%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Memphis	64%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Rice	58%	W
Favored: 8-4   Projected: 7-5

2009 Season Outlook  The team started slow last year at 1-3, with the offense keeping the team in games but not keeping up with Tulsa, Air Force, or even Colorado State. Then Keenum & co. kicked into high gear and scored 41+ against six of their next seven opponents, losing only at Marshall and crushing powerhouse Tulsa 70-30. They lost the shootout with Rice 56-42 but got a rematch with Air Force and this time won another close game.

This year's success will be decided by two key games: At UTEP and Southern Miss at home. Right now those two tossups are split, but both could go either way and lead to a 7-5 season or a 9-3 success. The cumulative projection stands at just over 6.5 wins.

Oklahoma State looks too tough this year, and while the Texas Tech game will be a fun shootout to watch, the Cougar pass defense probably can't handle them. Then comes a stretch of five games, all winnable, with UTEP first and Southern Miss last. UCF is another close game that should be in the "W" column and Rice is weaker this year. All in all 6-6 is the lowest they should possibly go with this offense, meaning another bowl game is all but certain. But they're on the cusp of 9-3 though I still don't think they'll win the CUSA.

57. Michigan Wolverines (Big Ten #10)        Polls: USA/Coaches  #57

2008 Results:    Record: 3-9   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #78    Success: #102    Overall: #78
Michigan takes their first step back toward a winning program after a disastrous 2008.
Offense (9 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #80   Adj. Rush Yards: #38    Adj. Pass Yards: #105
First order of business: fix this offense. First order within that order: find a quarterback. With Steven Threet (1,105 yds, 9TD 7int) off to Arizona State, that leaves backup Nick Sheridan (613 yards, 2TD 5int) the next option. But not so fast—surely the Wolverines can do better than his 46% completion rate? Enter Tate Forcier, a true freshman who threw four touchdown passes and ran for another in the spring game. Another frosh, Denard Robinson, is in the mix, too, but Forcier is far ahead of him and the best fit for the offense. Three wide receivers are back; Martavious Odoms, Greg Matthews, and Darryl Stonum didn't set any statistical records, having just 3 TD catches between them, but there were QB issues and Odoms and Stonum were true freshmen last year. The running game: Sam McGuffie started most of last year and is gone, but Brandon Minor outgained him, had a better average and scored 9 TDs to McGuffie's 3. McGuffie transferred to Rice, leaving Minor to run behind this year's greatly improved offensive line. All starters are back, four full time and a few part-timers that filled the left guard slot in '08. Two of the full-time starters were literally full time starters; Center David Molk and right guard David Moosman took every single snap at their positions. It's not often an offense improves when the starting quarterback and running back transfer out, but that will be the case with the Wolverines.
Defense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #78    Adj. Rush Def: #36    Adj. Pass Def: #66
The defense was supposed to carry the team along last year while the offense found its feet. Instead the defense was pedestrian by Big Ten standards and terrible by Michigan standards. Now with the departure of most of the D-line and secondary, they'll be counting on a solid linebacking corps to keep things from getting worse. Two starters return at linebacker for the Wolverines—top tacklers Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton—and Steve Brown moves from safety to an additional linebacker/safety hybrid spot. Brown's departure leaves Donovan Warren the only starter in the secondary. The defensive line, too, has only one of four players back, but Brandon Graham (10 sacks + 10 tackles for loss) is a good foundation for the move to a three-man front line. With last year's experienced squad underperforming things don't look great for this unit but they certainly have talent at key spots.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Zoltan Mesko—43 yard average—returns while kicker K.C. Lopata (10 of 15 field goals) departs. True freshman Brendan Gibbons is slated to replace him.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #10
Rich Rodriguez has been a polarizing figure, to say the least, in Ann Arbor. Those griping about Lloyd Carr for so many years got their wish when he left. There figured to be a bit of a transitional period into the very different offense, and losing an enormous amount of talent didn't help, but no one thought Michigan would suffer a Notre Dame-style meltdown. Rodriguez' track record is good and the recruiting classes have been strong, 2nd in the Big Ten to Ohio State. Defensive tackle William Campbell is among the top recruits in the nation, and defensive back Justin Turner isn't far behind. And of course there are quarterback prospects Forcier and Robinson (who famously doesn't tie his shoes, hence the nickname "Shoelace"), one of whom may guide the team this year.

Michigan 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Western Michigan	63%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	40%	L
9/19	Sat	vs.	Eastern Michigan	68%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Indiana	68%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Michigan State	33%	L
10/10	Sat	@	*Iowa	30%	L
10/17	Sat	vs.	Delaware State	90%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Penn State	37%	L
10/31	Sat	@	*Illinois	37%	L
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Purdue	53%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Wisconsin	44%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Ohio State	41%	L
Favored: 5-7   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  Last year's nightmare is over, that's the good news. No more mocking Notre Dame for their bad fortune in 2007 since Michigan went through the same thing. They weren't quite as abysmal as the '07 Irish, but in many ways it was worse because the Irish had struggled through losing seasons in the recent past, where UM's last losing season was in 1967.

Michigan's best accomplishment might have been almost beating Utah in game one. They beat Miami of Ohio in a sloppy game, then lost to Notre Dame one year after beating them 38-0. They actually beat Wisconsin to go 2-2, but it was downhill after that. Losing to Illinois wasn't so shameful, but then the Wolverines lost at home to Toledo from the MAC. After that they had just one more win, beating Minnesota. Interestingly, two of the teams they beat had winning records, showing there was talent and potential but the team played sloppy and made mistakes all season.

Like Notre Dame of last year, Michigan will probably go 6-6—neither a winning season nor a losing one. Being Michigan they'll go to a bowl game and probably win it as the talent on the squad will have matured. The most noteworthy game on the schedule is actually Delaware State, who screwed up their own schedule by taking the Michigan game and will have to forfeit a conference game because of it.

The losses on the slate are pretty emphatic overall, so they'll have to pull one upset. If it's Notre Dame that will give the team some momentum early on. If it's Ohio State at home, then Rodriguez will have arrived. Otherwise, he'll still be on a hot seat of sorts, but with the level of talent he's recruiting it shouldn't take long before the Wolverines are back.

58. Central Michigan Chippewas (Mid-American #1; West #1)    Polls: AP #41, USA #49

2008 Results:    Record: 8-5   Bowl: Lost to Florida Atlantic 24-21 (Motor City)   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #80    Success: #67    Overall: #79
Dan LeFevour's senior year will be bolstered by a tougher defense.
Offense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #52   Adj. Rush Yards: #100    Adj. Pass Yards: #8
It seems like Dan LeFevour's been around forever, and he's finally a senior to the relief (next year) of the MAC. Last year was typical, 67% completions, 2,784 yards, 21 TDs, 6 int, nearly 600 yards and 6 TDs rushing. Look for even better totals this year if he's 100% as his top targets—Antonio Brown (998 yards, 7 TDs), Bryan Anderson (865, 6), and Kito Poblah (532, 3) are back. And with #2 ground gainer Ontario Sneed gone LeFevour may pass even more this year, or run more and reach 1,000 yards as he did in '07. But the offensive line is a concern; three starters are gone including iron man Andrew Hartline. But junior Colin Miller and Jeff Maddux provide a strong foundation to build on.
Defense (9.5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #97    Adj. Rush Def: #78    Adj. Pass Def: #119
The defense, though, is where the team with get its boost in 2009. Three of the front four are back including Frank Zombo who had 9 sacks last year. The three starting linebackers return including Nick Bellore who led the team with 148 tackles, 58 more than #2 Bobby Seay. Seay anchors a secondary which was terrible last season but is reloaded with Eric Frasier and Josh Gordy also back. Taylor Bradley is redshirting this year but '07 starter Chaz West returns from redshirting last year and part-time starters Kirkston Edwards and Tommy Mama will fill the gap. Look for a much better finish than #119 in pass defense next year and a better scoring defense than #97 as the squad returns its top dozen tacklers from 2008.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Brett Hartman averaged a standard 40 yards a punt last year while Andrew Aguila hit 9 of 14 field goals. Both return.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #64
This year's recruiting class is much improved over last year's, with more players of added potential such as in-state recruit defensive back Shamair Benton. Butch Jones has carried on Brian Kelly's success with the team and with this year's class being #1 in the MAC the future after Dan LeFevour looks promising.

C. Michigan 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	@	Arizona	29%	L
9/12	Sat	@	Michigan State	33%	L
9/19	Sat	vs.	Alcorn State	100%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Akron	59%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Buffalo	51%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Eastern Michigan	68%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Western Michigan	56%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Bowling Green	56%	W
10/31	Sat	@	Boston College	41%	L
11/11	Wed	vs.	*Toledo	61%	W
11/18	Wed	@	*Ball State	50%	W
11/27	Fri	vs.	*Northern Illinois	65%	W
Favored: 9-3   Projected: 7-5

2009 Season Outlook  Last season was rough and started out very rough, with a close win over Ohio following a blowout loss to Georgia. A more apt challenge—their third attempt at beating Purdue in two years—almost came to fruition but they again suffered a close loss to the Boilermakers. When the MAC season got into full swing things didn't get easier but they were successful, winning six in a row by a grand total of 29 points. Hopes of winning the MAC again were crushed by Ball State and closing losses at Eastern Michigan and to Florida Atlantic in the Motor City Bowl made the year disappointing compared to 2007.

2009 opens with two tough and interesting road challenges, Arizona and Michigan State. They get a breather at home with 2-10 FBS Alcorn State, then head into the MAC season in which they have some key road games—Buffalo and Ball State—which will determine whether they can win the league. A detour to Boston College gives them three BCS teams on the year making 9-3 a bit questionable; they'll have to win both key road games. The cumulative projection gives them seven wins, but I think 8-4 is a reasonable call, splitting the Buffalo/Ball State contests.

The team is set at the skill positions and the defense will improve over last year; the big uncertainty is the offensive line. The schedule gives them two of the better MAC teams on the road which is the only thing that puts the conference outcome in question. We'll learn a lot about this team in the first two games. If they emerge even 1-1, they should go on to be MAC champs without a doubt. If they go 2-0, we'll see them in the top 25.

59. Tennessee Volunteers (SEC #10; East #5)     Polls: AP #37, USA/Coaches: #53

2008 Results:    Record: 5-7   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #54    Success: #66    Overall: #57
The Lane Kiffin era begins in Knoxville. How long it lasts is anybody's guess.
Offense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #87   Adj. Rush Yards: #68    Adj. Pass Yards: #100
Jonathan Crompton and Nick Stevens shared the QB position last year but head coach Kiffin says it'll be one or the other this season; their numbers were similarly poor in '08. The situation with the receivers is iffy: Top receiver Lucas Taylor is gone and senior Austin Rogers tore an ACL in the spring; Gerald Jones is recovering from wrist surgery and deep threat Denarius Moore will miss at least a few games due to a broken foot. The ground game has losses as well with the top two backs gone from last year; senior Monterio Hardesty will have to hold off true freshman Bryce Brown for the job. The offensive line returns two starters, with Chris Scott back from starting full-time in '08 while Vladimir Richard and Jacques McLendon both started six games apiece, but center Josh McNeil recently suffered what may be a career-ending knee injury; with luck he might only miss a month, but more likely he doesn't play this season. The tight end position is set with Jeff Cottam and Luke Stocker both back.
Defense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #18    Adj. Rush Def: #14    Adj. Pass Def: #21
The defense play well all last season. They return just five starters but one of those is all-American strong safety Eric Berry, a darkhorse Heisman candidate (meaning he'll finish 7th in the voting this year as the token defensive player) who had 7 interceptions and three sacks last season. Also back in the secondary is corner Dennis Rogan, and this group should do as well as last year when the defense was #4 in raw passing yards and #21 corrected for their opposition. At linebacker they return Rico McCoy, the team's #2 tackler but the #1 tackler last year, Ellix Wilson, is gone. The front four loses two starters including first-round draft pick Robert Ayers but seniors Wes Brown and Dan Williams are back. Any defense with Berry in it is bound to be good but the rushing numbers may slip a bit along with the scoring numbers. Still, it looks to be the clear strength of the team for a second year.
Kicking Game (1 RS):  Punter Britton Colquitt is gone, having averaged 43.4 last year. Junior Chad Cunningham averaged 39.5 during Colquitt's early-season suspension and will take over full-time. Kicker Daniel Lincoln is hoping to recapture his 2007 form; last season he made just 10 of 18.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #8
Lane Kiffin hasn't kicked off his Tennessee tenure in a low-key manner, say like Gene Chizik at Auburn. So far he's fired his strength coach, caused at least a dozen players to leave the program, and essentially trash-talking at other SEC coaches. The former USC assistant and failed Raiders coach says he want to draw attention to the program and get people talking, whether good or bad. At only 34 he certainly has picked up many enemies and detractors along the way. But will it all work?

There have been many loudmouth coaches that failed miserably, and that's certainly on the table for Kiffin. But just as many downright rude and contemptuous people have become coaching legends: Woody Hayes, Bobby Knight, the list is endless. Kiffin is more the prankster type. But he's hired good assistant coaches including his dad Monte, and according to many he's been relentless as a recruiter. The results of his first class bear that sentiment out: top 10 in the country and including perhaps the #1 overall prize in the nation, running back Bryce Brown who originally chose Miami (Brown's eligibility was being investigated by the NCAA in August but they concluded he was ok to go). The class is far better than last year's final class by Phil Fulmer. Kiffin will soon be the most loved or hated person in Tennessee, but he'll be here to stay if he draws in the talent year after year.

Tennessee 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Western Kentucky	76%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	UCLA	56%	W
9/19	Sat	@	*Florida	0%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	Ohio	64%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	49%	L
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Georgia	40%	L
10/24	Sat	@	*Alabama	22%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	52%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	Memphis	63%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Mississippi	22%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	45%	L
11/28	Sat	@	*Kentucky	50%	W
Favored: 6-6   Projected: 5-7

2009 Season Outlook  What became Phil Fulmer's final year at UT began with high expectations that crumbled quickly. A sloppy overtime loss to a UCLA team that would prove to be a terrible team; a 30-6 drilling by Florida; another loss (14-12 to Auburn) where the offense failed to function. UT was 1-3 then 3-4 with wins over UAB, Northern Illinois, and a down Mississippi State team. Two SEC losses later in which the team scored in single digits and Fulmer was fired. The team promptly gave up and lost 13-7 at home to Wyoming in the most sluggish performance ever seen at Neyland. They won a couple at the end for their coach but the aftertaste was still bad.

2009 might be a touch better despite the lack of returning starters. Don't count on beating Florida in the Swamp, it ain't gonna happen despite Kiffin's guarantees. But there's a real chance of starting 4-1 if they can take out Auburn at home. After that there are maybe three more wins and a probable even record. A repeat of 5-7 and no bowl is a possibility, while 7-5 isn't much of a stretch. Don't expect UT on top of the college football world this year but it might happen in the next few. If it doesn't Kiffin will be gone—he's that polarizing. If he doesn't bring a national title in five years he'll probably be sent on his way. His gaffes will only be excused if they're tied to SEC championship keychains.

60. Virginia Cavaliers (ACC #10; Coastal #5)

2008 Results:    Record: 5-7   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #61    Success: #45    Overall: #58
The Cavs may be better than last season which doesn't help the revamped coaching staff navigate the log-jammed ACC.
Offense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #81   Adj. Rush Yards: #77    Adj. Pass Yards: #66
With Jameel Sewell's return the Cavs can relegate Marc Verica (16 interceptions last year) to 2nd string or even third behind cornerback Vic Hall who might fit the scheme well. The team is moving to a spread offense under new coordinator Gregg Brandon but loses all their top receivers and their top running back, though Mikell Simpson should have a good senior campaign. The retooled offense will operate behind four returning starters, losing standout Eugene Monroe but returning senior tackle Will Barker (started 3 years), juniors Jack Shields (center) and B.J. Cabell (guard), and sophomore Austin Pasztor (guard). Behind this line the offense will get better as the year goes but the early play might be awkward. 
Defense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #40    Adj. Rush Def: #59    Adj. Pass Def: #74
The defense was decent last year but loses quite a bit and might fall victim to the change in offense. Not just because spread offenses put more pressure on the defense due to a higher game temp, but because  starting cornerback and top returning tackler Hall may end up the starting quarterback. Hall already returns punts and if he only plays sparingly at QB might still play corner the majority of time; if he does all three well enough he becomes my darkhorse Heisman candidate this year. The secondary returns two other starters, Ras-I Dowling and Corey Mosley, neither of whom is jumping ship to the offense. The linebackers are a major issue, with the team's three top tacklers gone from the unit leaving only #7 tackler Denzel Burrell. The front three returns Matt Conrath and Nick Jenkins. Overall the top four tacklers are gone and assuming Hall ends up primarily at quarterback it's the top six. After that, though, the next 11 return.
Kicking Game (1.5 RS): Punter Jimmy Howell (39 ave) returns. Kicker Yannick Reyering (6 of 11 FG) won't be back it seems, due to a knee injury, so Robert Randolph (3 of 4) will likely retain the starting job he earned near the end of the season.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #49
Al Groh is back on the hot seat, one season after he left the hot seat with a great 2007. Among his many new assistant coaches are two '08 head coaches, offensive coordinator Brandon (Bowling Green) and special teams coach Ron Prince (Kansas State). This year's recruiting class is better than last year's, even with the loss of star recruit Morgan Moses, on offensive lineman headed for military academy instead.

Virginia 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	William & Mary	61%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	TCU	37%	L
9/19	Sat	@	Southern Miss	42%	L
10/3	Sat	@	*North Carolina	30%	L
10/10	Sat	vs.	Indiana	67%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Maryland	53%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Georgia Tech	39%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Duke	58%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Miami (Florida)	36%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Boston College	47%	L
11/21	Sat	@	*Clemson	35%	L
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Virginia Tech	40%	L
Favored: 4-8   Projected: 5-7

2009 Season Outlook  After a rocky 2006 the Cavs had a 9-4 2007 with an amazing run of close call wins. Last season it was back to reality. Crushed 52-7 at home by USC and 45-10 at UConn, it was a 31-3 loss to Duke that was the worst and Virginia was 1-3 and all the good will from '07's excitement was evaporating.

The Cavs came roaring back, though, with four straight wins, shutting out Maryland and winning a couple of close games for old time's sake. The future looked bright at 5-3 but then they lost their last four games and the grumbles about Groh were renewed. On the hotseat in '06, off after '07, he was on, off, and back on all in the course of the 2008 season.

This year, unless something exciting and unexpected happens with the new offense, might be the last straw. There are four games I expect them to win and enough close ones to (almost) give them a 6-6 projection, but it's more likely they repeat 5-7 and miss a bowl game again. The offense is the wildcard; if say, Hall becomes a surprise superstar at QB or in tandem with Sewell, and the offensive line is so good that it all works, things could be different. But a spread offense with such a depleted receiver corps is going to have some growing pains, and it doesn't come at a very good time.

2009 Pre-season Rankings - #61 to #65: Cincinnati, Colorado, UConn, UCLA, Texas A&M

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #61 to #65. To see the full list, click here.

61. Cincinnati Bearcats (Big East #5)       Polls: AP #33, USA/Coaches #29

2008 Results:    Record: 11-3   Bowl: Lost to Virginia Tech 20-7 (Orange)   Poll finish: AP #17; USA #17
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #44    Success: #20    Overall: #39
The Bearcats defensive losses mean they aren't likely to repeat their BCS bowl season in 2009.
Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #66   Adj. Rush Yards: #81    Adj. Pass Yards: #32
After broken arms and legs plagued Cincinnati's QBs in 2008 it was Tony Pike who emerged as the top dog throwing 19 TD passes. He was aided big time by Mardy Gilyard (1,276 yards, 11 TDs) who returns and Dominick Goodman (1,028 yards 7 TDs) who does not. Tight end Ben Guidugli is back but receiver Marcus Barnett is moving to the defense and USC transfer Vidal Hazleton was not granted instant eligibility. The competition this year is at running back, where last year's leader Jacob Ramsey (664 yards) tries to hold off John Goebel (7 TDs) and Isaiah Pead for touches. The offensive line returns three full-time starters so the whole operation should run a lot more smoothy this year...until you hear the first (bone) snap.
Defense (1 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #29    Adj. Rush Def: #18    Adj. Pass Def: #61
The defense did a great job last year as the offense tried to find consistency, helping the team win several close games. But this season is going to be a lot different with only *one* starter back from the entire first team. Gone from the front four are NFL draftee Connor Barwin (11 sacks) and three others who combined for 15 sacks. The Bearcats switch to a 3-4 this year with senior Curtis Young (4 sacks) the new leader. The three starting linebackers are gone including #1 tackler Ryan Manalac, but 2nd stringer Andre Revels was #7 in tackles last year. The secondary has both the biggest losses and the most promise, ironically. Three players were drafted by the NFL: Brandon Underwood by Green Bay and Corey Smith and Mike Mickens both by Dallas. That's a loss, too, of nine interceptions. But there are some positives:  starter Aaron Webster, the squad's leading returning tackler, is back; Drew Frey was a starter before early injury ended his 2008 season; and Barnett moves over from wide receiver. Thought the top five tacklers are gone—and 11 of the top 13—a good chunk of the second and third string is back and with good coaching should fill the gaps well. Nevertheless, it was be a very changed defense.
Kicking Game (1 RS):  Kicker Jake Rogers is back and finished with good stats (16 of 23 FG) after an up and down '08. Punter Kevin Huber will be missed after a great 2008. Most punters would be grateful for a 41.5 average but that was his *net*—he averaged 45 yards raw. Freshman Patrick O'Donnell is taking over.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #55
Brian Kelly is rightly considered one of the best coaches in college football and the big question is how long he can remain at Cincinnati given all the schools that are dying to have him jump ship. So far he's gone through two cycles as a very hot commodity and returned to the Bearcats, so he may be committed to building the program into a perennial powerhouse. But it would be interesting to see what he could do at a school that could lure the best recruits. Like Urban Meyer before he went to Florida, Kelly gets very good recruits—relative to expectations for Cincinnati, a basketball school. This year's class was average for the Big East, and last year's ranked a little lower. Defensive back Chris Williams and JUCO receiver Jamar Howard are the consensus best players coming in.

Cincinnati 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	@	*Rutgers	36%	L
9/12	Sat	vs.	Southeast Missouri State	91%	W
9/19	Sat	@	Oregon State	34%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	Fresno State	58%	W
10/3	Sat	@	Miami (Ohio)	69%	W
10/15	Thu	@	*South Florida	42%	L
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Louisville	59%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Syracuse	59%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Connecticut	54%	W
11/13	Fri	vs.	*West Virginia	51%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	Illinois	42%	L
12/5	Sat	@	*Pittsburgh	38%	L
Favored: 7-5   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  SportsRatings put Cincinnati at #21 pre-season last year while they were absent from any other top 25. They pretty much matched that prediction but even we didn't have them going 11-2 over their 13-game schedule.

The Bearcats succeeded by winning the close games, whether their opponent was outmatched or favored. They beat Akron 17-15; Rutgers 13-10; West Virginia 26-23 in overtime; Louisville 28-20; Pitt 28-21; and Hawaii 29-24. This was good enough for a Big East title and an Orange Bowl berth. They played a lackluster game in losing, 20-7. Their other two losses were 52-26 at Oklahoma and 40-16 at UConn.

With Cincy's defensive woes, it's lucky for them that the Big East offenses are a lot tamer these days. Pat White is gone at WVU, no Donald Brown at UConn, Ray Rice is a memory at Rutgers, and Louisville is a shade of its former self, while Pitt and Syracuse haven't had much offense in years. Add a schedule that includes a gimme I-AA team and the Bearcats could get back to a bowl in a major rebuilding year (on defense at least). Even if most games turn into shootouts the offense can probably keep up. After two double-digit win years 7-5 or 6-6 isn't going to feel great, but it would have been a lot worse if they'd had this team competing in the Big East two or three years ago instead of among the parity and weaker offenses of today.

62. Colorado Buffaloes (Big Twelve #9; North #4)     Polls: USA/Coaches #53

2008 Results:    Record: 5-7   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #72    Success: #62    Overall: #72
The Buffaloes have been waiting for the promised turnaround for a few years now. Will it happen in 2009?
Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #92   Adj. Rush Yards: #78    Adj. Pass Yards: #94
Coach's son Cody Hawkins didn't have a terrible sophomore year, with 1,892 yards, 17 TDs and 10 interceptions while completing 57% of his passes. But to take the Buffs to the next level he'll need to do more with less this year as three of his four top receivers are gone. #1 Scotty McNight is back (519 yards, 5 TDs) along with #5, tight end Riar Geer, but #2 Josh Smith tranferred after spring so sophomore Markques Smith, suspended last year, will play an even bigger role than expected. The running game is set with the top three backs returning including Rodney Stewart and Darell Scott who will via for the starting spot. The offensive line is solid and was really solid before Devin Head recently transferred. Despite being a returning starter Head was 2nd string in any configuration of the depth chart and three other starters return so the O-line will still be much improved. Overall the offense should be much better but the late defections of Smith and Head sting a bit, and makes things a touch harder for Hawkins. If he can't elevate his game then Tyler Hanson, a running threat, is waiting to take more snaps at quarterback this year. 
Defense (4 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #46    Adj. Rush Def: #90    Adj. Pass Def: #7
The Buffs faces such an array of passing teams that their passing defense, which finished #72 in raw figures, adjusted up all the way to #7. But even the pass-happy teams didn't bother to go to the air since the ground game offered easier rewards. That's going to be a big concern again; whether the Buffs stick with a 4-3 or line up in a 3-4 there are no starters back on the defensive line. The linebackers are in much better shape with the team's two top tacklers back, Jeff Smart and Shaun Mohler. The secondary is questionable again but has Cha'pelle Brown (#4 tackler) back along with part-time starters Jalil Brown,  Jimmy Smith, and Benjamin Burney who returns from a redshirt year (and caused a stir with a too-frank blog—later discontinued—that he wrote for the official athletics site). Overall the defense held many high-scoring teams below their average last year but the rushing defense, a big problem last year, looks just as bad for 2009.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter Matt DiLallo is back after sharing duties last year with Tom Suazo. DiLallo punted 2/3 of the time and averaged 40.5 a kick, better than Suazo (39.8) who replaced him for a while last season. With Suazo gone DiLallo's job should be secure. Kicker Aric Goodman, on the other hand, made just 5 of 14 field goals last year and if he can't improve freshman Zach Grossnickle will take over. Five of Goodman's misses hit the uprights so maybe it was just bad luck, but 5 of 14 is not acceptable and I expect to see Grossnickle as the Buffs' kicker. For kick returns Colorado expected to have Josh Smith, who returned both kickoffs and punts last year, back but as mentioned in Offense he has transferred.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #58
Dan Hawkins is entering his fourth year as head coach, and most fans expected him to have Colorado back to winning by now. His first year was a disaster but they recovered well in year two to make a bowl appearance. Last season was a minor regression, or maybe a regrouping, before the next charge which should be this season. If not, expect to hear some major grumblings and if it doesn't happen next year the coach and his son will be leaving the university at the same time. This year's recruiting class isn't great and is nearer the bottom than the top of the Big Twelve. They did get a well-timed big score in Nick Kasa, a defensive lineman who could step in to start right away. Last year's class—which included running back Scott, one of the nation's top prospects—was better so Hawkins can recruit; like anything else it will vary year to year.

Colorado 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Colorado State	63%	W
9/11	Fri	@	Toledo	52%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Wyoming	68%	W
10/1	Thu	@	West Virginia	43%	L
10/10	Sat	@	*Texas	5%	L
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Kansas	39%	L
10/24	Sat	@	*Kansas State	47%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Missouri	43%	L
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Texas A&M	54%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Iowa State	49%	L
11/19	Thu	@	*Oklahoma State	28%	L
11/27	Fri	vs.	*Nebraska	49%	L
Favored: 4-8   Projected: 5-7

2009 Season Outlook  The Buffs started the '08 season with three wins, and while none was particularly stunning they already had half of '07's win total. They followed that with three losses, bringing them back to reality. They went 2-4 in the 2nd half of the year and while they only suffered one terrible defeat—58-0 at Missouri—they didn't have any wins that would qualify as impressive, beating Colorado State 38-17, Eastern Washington 31-24, West Virginia 17-14 (ot), Kansas State 14-13, and Iowa State 28-24.

This year looks a lot like last season. With improvement on offense and some regression on defense, the Buffs will be better but not by enough to matter. Three wins to start the season, then two Big Twelve wins, and another 5-7 season. Right now even the Iowa State game goes ever-so-slightly against them for a 4-8 finish. There are a number of close losses where they can get a sixth win, so the Buffs could easily be bowl-bound again but the season will likely be another regrouping year, not the great leap forward that Hawkins suggested when adopting a "10 wins" slogan for the team. Before Smith and Head transferred there was a slightly better chance of that with the offense overcoming the defense's shortcomings, but the Big Twelve, while weaker, is still too tough overall for CU. Once again—barring some miracle play—it's another "wait until next year" for the Buffaloes.

63. UCLA Bruins (Pac Ten #8)              Polls: AP #41, USA/Coaches #38

2008 Results:    Record: 4-8   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #82    Success: #83    Overall: #82
The Bruins will be a lot better in 2009, but so will the rest of the Pac Ten.
Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #99   Adj. Rush Yards: #116    Adj. Pass Yards: #58
The Bruins couldn't run the ball last year; leading rusher Kahlil Bell had under 400 yards and averaged less than 3 yards a carry. They couldn't throw the ball, either: quarterback Kevin Craft had 7 touchdown passes and TWENTY interceptions. Craft returns but will play second fiddle to redshirt freshman Kevin Prince who can hardly do worse. Bell is gone but Derrick Coleman, #2 last year with 284 yards (5.4  per carry) takes over and fullback Chane Moline (#3) is back as well. Leading receivers Taylor Embee and Terrence Austin return along with a crew of tight ends, so Craft should find some targets and have time to throw behind an O-line that loses just one two who started the majority of games. Many of last year's starters may be pushed to 2nd string behind players like Colorado transfer center Kai Maiava and a couple of hotshot freshmen, so the line will be better one way or another. But injuries have already started to pile up; Micah Kia is now out for the year, reserve Sonny Tevaga is no longer with the team, and Nick Ekbatani will likely miss September.
Defense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #71    Adj. Rush Def: #86    Adj. Pass Def: #6
The best defense in the Pac 10? Some have been suggesting that this year's Bruin squad will have just that. Their rushing figures from last year suggest that can't possibly be the case. The front four does return two excellent starters in Korey Bosworth and Brian Price, who together had 25 total tackles for loss, but part-time starter Reggie Stokes will be unavailable until mid-seaon. At linebacker Reggie Carter led the way with 83 tackles last year, while Steve Sloan started most of the season instead of injured Kyle Bosworth who also returns. Add Akeem Ayers and you have one of the most stacked three-man linebacking corps in the country. The secondary was great last year, and not just because the rushing defense was bad. Corner Alterraun Verner (#2 tackler) had an incredible 18 pass bat-downs in 2008, and safety Rahim Moore (#4 tackler) had 3 interceptions. In all 10 of their 14 top tacklers are back and this will be a very good defense, but certainly not the best in the conference.
Kicking Game (1 RS):  Kai Forbath attempted only 22 extra points (making 21) but also tried 22 field goals and made 19 including a 53-yarder. He's back for the Bruins, but punter Aaron Perez departs with his excellent 45.2 yard average. Taking over will be redshirt freshman Jeff Locke.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #6
Rick Neuheisel is setting a good precedent with two consecutive top ten recruiting classes. This year they get about ten recruits considered blue-chip level, including tight end Morrell Presley. Xavier Su'a-Filo and Stan Hasiak will compete for starting jobs on the offensive line. From the 2008 class redshirt freshmen Craft and Locke will likely start at QB and placekicker, and Aaron Hester is pegged to start at cornerback. Although Neuheisel's first season was a disappointment, a turnaround won't be long in the making if he keeps recruiting like this.

UCLA 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	San Diego State	67%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Tennessee	40%	L
9/19	Sat	vs.	Kansas State	51%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Stanford	28%	L
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Oregon	36%	L
10/17	Sat	vs.	*California	27%	L
10/24	Sat	@	*Arizona	27%	L
10/31	Sat	@	*Oregon State	33%	L
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Washington	62%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Washington State	68%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	44%	L
11/28	Sat	@	*Southern California	14%	L
Favored: 4-8   Projected: 5-7

2009 Season Outlook  When UCLA upset Tennessee to kick off the 2008 season it looked like the Bruins might be onto something. After all, Tennessee was ranked and big things were expected of them. On the other hand the game was so sloppy it appeared that both teams might be bad. That turned out to be the case.

The Bruins were scorched 59-0 at BYU two weeks later, and lost big to Arizona and a third in a row to Fresno State. They beat Washington State 28-3, which tells you how bad their offense was. They played Oregon surprisingly close and beat Stanford by a field goal to go 3-4, and like a mirage the season seemed salvageable. But no, they lost four out of the last five, beating only Washington. They didn't exceed 31 points all season.

This year the defense will be stronger, the offense will be better...and so will most of the teams in the Pac 10, negating any positive developments on either side of the line. In fact it looks like a repeat of last year, complete with wins over the Washingtons but without an upset of Tennessee or a win over much-improved Stanford. Instead they get San Diego State at home in place of BYU and Kansas State in place of Fresno State—and that game is in question because of the summer injuries that will keep a few starters out through September.  Oregon, Cal, Arizona, and Oregon State are all tough teams, and USC is USC. The Bruins could beat ASU at home and go 5-7. But any more than that depends on a breakthrough, such as the ground game getting a big spark, or Craft dazzling with his efficiency...or perhaps if the defense really *is* the best in the conference. If any of those things happen, the Bruins go to a bowl game for sure. Otherwise they have to wait until next year for more of Neuhaisal's blue chips to come to town.

64. Connecticut Huskies (Big East #6)

2008 Results:    Record: 8-5   Bowl: Beat Buffalo 38-20 (International)   Poll finish: USA #39
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #40    Success: #44    Overall: #42
The post-Donald Brown era begins this season with a new offensive coordinator and a no-huddle look.
Offense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #54   Adj. Rush Yards: #9    Adj. Pass Yards: #113
First let's get this one out of the way: Donald Brown, all 2,083 yards and 18 TDs of him, is gone. Jordan Todman did a good job backing him up last year (296 yards, 6.3 ave) and Andre Dixon excelled in 2007, but let's keep our expectations realistic. Also gone from the offense is Tyler Lorenzen, who had a poor '08 with under 50% completions, passing yards in the triple-digits, and only 3 TD passes all season. His backups (including new starter Zach Fraser) didn't fare any better, combining for 2 TDs and 9 interceptions. So as far as the most important positions go, this offense is looking bleak. The brighter news for the new hurry-up scheme is that the top two receivers, Kashif Moore and fullback Anthony Sherman, both return along with starter Brad Kanuch, though they totalled just 1 TD catch while Brown ran all over the opposing team. The offensive line returns three starters and will have a very different job description this year. 
Defense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #31    Adj. Rush Def: #23    Adj. Pass Def: #12
The defense helped the team win quite a few close games last year, and should be up to the task again. The front four returns just one starter, Twyon Martin, losing among others Cody Brown who had 11 sacks last year. Worse, new starter Marcus Campbell won't be with the team this year. All of this threatens their top 25 rushing defense ranking and there will probably be less pressure on opposing quarterbacks. To pick up the slack, the linebacker unit returns in full, with Scott Lutrus the team's #1 tackler last year and Lawrence Wilson (4 int) the #2 plus #6 Greg Lloyd. The secondary did a great job last year and two starters, Jasper Howard (4 int) and Robert Vaughn (#3 tackler) are back, but three safeties are out due to suspension or injury. If projected starting safety Aaron Bagsby returns the defense will have 11 of its top 15 tacklers back along with the top four.
Kicking Game (1.5 RS): Punter Desi Cullen (40 yard average but 6 blocks) returns, and one of last year's two kickers, though Dave Taggert (13 of 15 FGs) who returns, took over for Tony Ciaravino (9 of 15) who departs.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #82
Randy Edsall has built a respectable football program at basketball-oriented UConn, but recruiting still isn't easy. This year's class is about the same as last year's, near the bottom of the Big East. A couple of receivers, Dwayne Difton and Malik Generett, are among the few consensus standout prospects in the group.

UConn 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	@	Ohio	58%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	North Carolina	36%	L
9/19	Sat	@	Baylor	33%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	Rhode Island	83%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Pittsburgh	36%	L
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Louisville	58%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*West Virginia	43%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Rutgers	42%	L
11/7	Sat	@	*Cincinnati	46%	L
11/21	Sat	@	Notre Dame	30%	L
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Syracuse	65%	W
12/5	Sat	vs.	*South Florida	47%	L
Favored: 4-8   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  Last year started off a lot like 2007: five straight wins and an incredulous college football world betting that it wouldn't last. While it nearly did in 2007 as the Huskies finished 9-3, this year they lost five of their last seven to go 7-5. A bowl win gave them eight wins but the year was much less satisfying, partly due to the offense. The quarterback troubles and one-dimensionality kept the team under 14 points in six games, all but one losses.

I had the Huskies in the top 25 pre-season last year, and having 7 to 9 wins because of their returning personnel; the same major losses in personnel this season yield a forecast of 4 wins, or perhaps six cumulative. But it looks more likely that they won't be going to a bowl game this year.

The Big East is going to be the conference of parity this season, and UConn is a bit below the curve. So two out of their four projected wins are non-conference foes Ohio and I-AA Rhode Island. They face a good UNC team at home, an improved Baylor on the road, and a much-improved Notre Dame on the road as well. In the Big East look for a lot of close contests but likely losses as new key players emerge. If it is able, the defense may have to carry the team to a bowl game this year as Brown isn't here to do it anymore.

65. Texas A&M Aggies (Big Twelve #10; South #6)

2008 Results:    Record: 4-8   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #81    Success: #93    Overall: #81
The improved Aggies hope for a better year after a few disappointing seasons.
Offense (9 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #47   Adj. Rush Yards: #108    Adj. Pass Yards: #29
The offensive line will be the most improved piece of the offense. Four starters return and Lucas Patterson moves in from the D-line, looking to improve an anemic ground game that loses last year's leading rusher Mike Goodson. #2 Cyrus Gray (363 yards, 1,169 return yards), who started most games, is back, and #3 was quarterback Jerrell Johnson. Johnson passed for 21 TDs (10 int) and ran for three more and has Jeff Fuller (9 TDs) and tight end Jamie McCoy (5) back. Ryan Tannehill (844 yards) has reportedly been moved to backup quarterback but if needed I can't imagine him not helping out at receiver. Overall the offense looks pretty darn good.
Defense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #101    Adj. Rush Def: #104    Adj. Pass Def: #98
The defense, however, was bottom 25 in quality last year. They'll be better but there are still questionable areas. The rushing defense was terrible, and the Aggies are moving from a 4-3 to a 3-4 "plus" in a way, a 3-4 alignment with a "Jack" linebacker who can rush the passer. Because of Patterson's defection to the O-line only Tony Jerod-Eddie returns in the front three. Matt Featherston was the team's #1 tackler last year and may play at linebacker and as back-up "Jack" to Von Miller. Also at linebacker part-time starter Garrick Williams returns but they lose #2 tackler Alton Dixon. The secondary is set at safety with Jordan Pugh and Trent Hunter (3 int) but loses corner Arkeith Brown. The A&M defense should be better but is according to Lindy's "light years away from returning to the dominant Wrecking Crew days" and as Athlon states, "light years away from returning to its old 'Linebacker U' status." A&M fans may be disappointed to find out that A&M's heydey now lies somewhere near Proxima Centauri.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Randy Bullock took over at kicker early last season and returns after making six of seven. Punter Justin Brantley leaves with his 45.7 average and true freshman walk-on Ryan Epperson takes over.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #11
Mike Sherman's first year wasn't so great but his first two recruiting class have been, and this one is nearly top 10 in quality, behind only to Texas in the Big Twelve and on par with Oklahoma. The prize recruit was unanimous blue chip Christine Michael, who should help bolster the depleted running back corps. Other consensus starts are wide receiver Uzoma Nwachukwu and cornerback Coryell Judie. The immediate future looks good if Sherman can keep this up, and so far none this year has been DNQ'ed by NCAA clearinghouse.

Texas A&M 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	New Mexico	62%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Utah State	61%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	UAB	64%	W
10/3	Sat	N	Arkansas	44%	L
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma State	32%	L
10/17	Sat	@	*Kansas State	47%	L
10/24	Sat	@	*Texas Tech	26%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	56%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Colorado	45%	L
11/14	Sat	@	*Oklahoma	5%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Baylor	40%	L
11/26	Thu	vs.	*Texas	11%	L
Favored: 4-8   Projected: 5-7

2009 Season Outlook  Last year opened with a dud, an 18-14 loss to Sun Belt cupcake Arkansas State, followed by a near-loss to New Mexico. A 41-23 loss to Miami and a narrow win over lowly Army hardly convinced anyone that the Aggies would compete in the Big Twelve, and they were right: A&M finished 2-6 in the conference with wins over Iowa State and Colorado. The latter was an upset and the year's only real bright spot, but the three losses that followed were the worst games of the year.

The Aggies once again have a kind pre-conference schedule and this time around they'll make the most of it. New Mexico is at home and Utah State and UAB follow in what should be a 3-0 opening. This year they're good enough to avoid the upset, too. The remainder—the Big Twelve—should go a lot better at least in terms of final score. The league isn't as dominant and the Aggie defense is better, so won't allow 40+ points in six of the eight games. But they still might only win one game in conference and finish 4-8. Even the cumulative projection doesn't give them much more, but I'll go with that as I think there will be some tangible improvement from last year. Thus it's likely they won't see a bowl game, or get a minor one at best if they're selected at 6-6. The real improvement will come in the next few years as the great recruiting classes come of age.

2009 Pre-season Rankings - #66 to #70: Kansas State, UTEP, Temple, Nevada, Ball State

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #66 to #70. To see the full list, click here.

66. Kansas State Wildcats (Big Twelve #11; North #5)

2008 Results:    Record: 5-7   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #71    Success: #82    Overall: #71
The Wildcats bring back Bill Snyder to try to work his magic again; he'll need every trick in the book this year.
Offense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #33   Adj. Rush Yards: #90    Adj. Pass Yards: #25
Josh Freeman was most of K-State's offense last year, with 20 TDs passing and another 14 rushing. Gone to the NFL, he passes the reigns to either Carson Coffman or Daniel Thomas who will have pint-sized Brandon Banks (1,049 yards, 9 TDs) as a target. Banks will line up at tailback occasionally, while last year's top back Lamark Brown will primarily play wide receiver. Tight end Jeron Mastrud returns as well. The offensive line saw many shifts and replacements last year, and now returning starter Brock Unruh has been lost for the season. But Nick Stringer returns, and with Zach Kendall and '07 part-time starter Trevor Viers they should cobble together a half-way decent O-line. But the passing game looks weaker and the running game doesn't seem improved with Brown at receiver and Logan Dold departing to safety. Update: Interestingly, though Thomas didn't win the quarterback job (Coffman did) he did claim the starting spot at running back.
Defense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #91    Adj. Rush Def: #111    Adj. Pass Def: #72
The defense needs work, especially the rushing defense. The front four should be good with Eric Childs and Brandon Harold at end, Daniel Calvin at tackle and Virginia transfer Jeffrey Fitzgerald joining the D-line. Four part-time starters are back at linebacker including #2 tackler Alex Brebec, and the secondary boasts Joshua Moore (3 int, #1 tackler) and Courtney Herndon (2 int, #3 tackler), with Tysyn Hartman back at safety with part-time starter Chris Carney. Overall the top six tacklers are back from last year and if there's more consistency in the lineup this year the numbers will get better.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Between D.J. Fulhage and George Pierson the Wildcats netted 32.2 yards a punt last year, a stat they'll want to improve lest redshirt freshman Ryan Doerr get the starting spot. Kicker Brooks Rossman (9 of 12 FG) leaves, and junior Josh Cherry should take over.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #76
When Bill Snyder said he was returning to coach the Wildcats there was great enthusiasm...and many questions. Well-respected, certainly—the stadium is name after him—the man who built the program from nothing in the '90s retired years ago after a few losing seasons. Now pushing 70, people wondered if he would be able to recruit anymore. Older coaches have more difficulty for many reasons the least of which is recruits question how long the coach will stick around. On top of that, the recruiting landscape in Manhattan has changed: Kansas and Missouri, both subpar programs in Snyder's heyday, are Big Twelve powers now. Snyder's first signing class in his new tenure gives credence to some of these fears, as it ranks last in the conference. Admittedly there were tough circumstances—Ron Prince was fired while the season was in full swing and is still wrangling with the university over "secret payments" that they want back—but it doesn't bode well for Snyder's recovery plans. Last year's class was top 25 in quality, or perhaps quantity, but consisted primarily of JUCO players that will be gone after this year. Next year's class will be more telling, but Snyder has his work cut out for him in turning around the program a second time.

Kansas State 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Massachusetts	65%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Louisiana-Lafayette	53%	W
9/19	Sat	@	UCLA	49%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	Tennessee Tech	96%	W
10/3	Sat	N	*Iowa State	52%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Texas Tech	26%	L
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Texas A&M	53%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Colorado	52%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Oklahoma	5%	L
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Kansas	38%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Missouri	42%	L
11/21	Sat	@	*Nebraska	41%	L
Favored: 6-6   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  Before the season the coaching controversy with Ron Prince was settled when his contract was extended. Then the season started and the grumblings began again. Beating a few cupcakes didn't make up for losing by 30 to Texas Tech, but by mid-October the Wildcats were 4-2 and Prince had a chance to remain in shaky good graces. But the 'Cats lost by a point at Colorado and by 23 to Oklahoma, and Prince was fired after a 52-21 loss to Kansas.

This year thanks to some very kind scheduling—two I-AA opponents plus the Sun Belt's UL-Lafayette, and only five road games—the Wildcats should even their slate this year. It won't get them to a bowl game as only one FBS win can count, but they have some chances—a questionable UCLA team that will be hobbled by injuries early, for one—to get that extra win. They also have several close wins counted in their favor, too, so I'm betting that the 6-6 cumulative projection is accurate.

The wild card for the Wildcats is any enthusiasm that Snyder's return engenders in the team. The fans are excited, for sure, with some ticket prices doing a throwback to Snyder's first year so the Bill Snyder Family Stadium should be full. But how the players respond to him and his coaching could determine whether the 'Cats go to yet another bowl under their all-time greatest coach. The team might be 6-2 or even 7-1 in late October; that would give them some confidence heading into the final part of the season.

67. Texas-El Paso Miners (Conference USA #5; West #3)

2008 Results:    Record: 5-7   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #83    Success: #89    Overall: #83
WIth a still-potent offense and improving defense the Miners could go to a bowl this year.
Offense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #37   Adj. Rush Yards: #107    Adj. Pass Yards: #10
Trevor Vittatoe's 33 TD passes tell the story of the Miner offense; UTEP's top five rushers from '08 had just 8 touchdowns, while top receiver Kris Adams had 14. Lucky for the Miners the key players in the passing game are back: Vittatoe, Adams, Jeff Moturi (9 TDs), and Tufick Shadawry. Only tight end Jamar Hunt is gone and only one starter is missing on the offensive line. The running game, somewhat of an afterthought, returns everyone but starting tailback Terrell Jackson, with #3 Donald Buckram the most likely successor as #5 Daniel Palmer has been suspended pending robbery and assault charges.
Defense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #110    Adj. Rush Def: #109    Adj. Pass Def: #90
The Miners defense was poor across the board in '08. The front three in their 3-3-5 scheme should be in good shape returning starters Steve Riddick and Robert Soleyjacks. Only one starter, Anthony Morrow, is back at the three linebacker slots and they lose top tackler Adam Vincent. UTEP's "Miner" position is part linebacker, part safety, and will be filled by #2 tackler Da'Mon Cromartie-Smith or perhaps by part-time starters Braxton Amy (#1 tackler in 2007) and Clarence Ward. The two corner slots return Cornelius Brown and Melvin Stephenson while one safety spot will be either Cromartie-Smith or Amy. There's enough experience among the five backfield positions to make a considerable improvement in passing defense and the front three has two starters and a senior, but overall they lose four of their top five tacklers.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Kyle Peterson averaged 43 yards per punt last season and is back, while Jose Martinez (20 of 27 FG) is gone. Redshirt freshman Logan Barrett is taking over.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #90
Mike Price had a few good years with UTEP so far, but hasn't gotten them over the hump to winning consistently, though by the school's standards he's doing very well—from 1975 to 1985 UTEP had only 1-10 and 2-9 seasons (mostly 1-10). His recruiting classes are normally on par for the C-USA, but this year's was a bit slimmer than normal so it ranks lower though he did pick up a slew of summer recruits. Justin Hickman is the class' standout and should see time at linebacker this year.

UTEP 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Buffalo	55%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Kansas	38%	L
9/19	Sat	@	New Mexico State	70%	W
9/26	Sat	@	Texas	3%	L
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Houston	50%	L
10/10	Sat	@	*Memphis	53%	W
10/21	Wed	vs.	*Tulsa	46%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	*UAB	64%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Tulane	64%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Southern Methodist	58%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Rice	47%	L
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Marshall	56%	W
Favored: 7-5   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  2008 was up and down and streaky: lose three, win three, lose two, win two, lose two. The common thread was poor defense; the Miners gave up 42, 42, 34, 77, 49, 42, and 53 in losing, and futily scored 30 or more in four of those losses.

This year's opener against Buffalo will be a good test for both teams, and give a clue as to what to expect from them for the remainder of the season. They host Kansas but probably still lose, and the game at Texas is a pointless exercise for anyone outside that state. Once inside the conference schedule most of the games are tight but in general they face the tougher (but beatable) teams at home and the easier teams on the road. This gives them a chance in every game and yields a probable 7-5 record. I have them losing three close games as well, so I see them going 8-4 before falling to the cumulative projection of 6-6.

The offense will still carry the team this year, as it will be one of the best if not the best in the conference and probably of top 25 quality nationally. The defense will improve enough to not sabotage the offense's success. They might resemble Rice of last year, which suggests a really special season could be in store.

68. Temple Owls (Mid-American #2; East #1)

2008 Results:    Record: 5-7   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #74    Success: #94    Overall: #75
A year after getting almost the whole team back the Owls may still have enough back this year to compete for the MAC championship.
Offense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #90   Adj. Rush Yards: #113    Adj. Pass Yards: #74
The Owl offense was always a work-in-progress last season, with various players shifting position as head coach Al Golden tried to find combinations that worked and could compensate for injuries. Quarterback Adam DiMichele was one of those hurt but was otherwise fairly consistent with 18 TDs and just 6 interceptions, but he's gone after starting three years and Vaughn Charlton is probably the safest bet for continued productivity. The four top running backs return from last year, with ex-cornerback and all-name first-teamer Kee-Ayre Griffin leading the way with 5 TDs, and two converted wide receivers in the mix. As for actual receivers, Bruce Francis (13 TDs) is gone but Jason Harper and tight end Steve Maneri are back. The offensive line loses two full-time starters but among all the pieces returning there are about three starters worth, with Wayne Tribune and four other part-time starters cobbling together what should be another good O-line. 18 of 22 2nd and 3rd stringers return, giving injury protection and depth.
Defense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #55    Adj. Rush Def: #69      Adj. Pass Def: #99
The defense was looking good coming out of the spring; nine starters returning, three in each section of the 4-3 scheme. But then defensive end Junior Galette and corner Jamal Schulters left the team and that total was down to seven. Further, backup (and potential starter) Daryl Robinson was kicked off the team. This still leaves the secondary with top tackler Jaiguawn Jarrett and Dominique Harris, with Marquise Liverpool moving over from WR/RB and Anthony Ferla back from '07. The front four still has Andre Neblett and Brian Sanford back, and is evidently still sound enough so that Sanford will likely be a backup this year. The linebackers haven't had any defections yet, so all three starters return: Alex Joseph, Elijah Joseph, and 2nd team all-name Amara Kumara. Even with the two extra lost starters the Owl D still has 11 of their top 15 tacklers back, and though it could have been a very good defense it should still show a lot of improvement.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter Jeff Wathne (40.4 average) and kicker Jake Brownell (8 of 14 FGs) are both back for the Owls.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #79
Al Golden has made strides in returning Temple's team to a respectable level. On a national scale recruiting isn't very good but this year's class is roughly 3rd in the MAC. Deon Miller is one name with above-average expectations, and since he's a wide receiver he could end up playing just about any position on this team. Golden is taking a big chance with Zach Kane, who committed to Miami before ever-present law troubles made him enroll at Milford Academy, where he supposedly didn't finish out the season with the team. I wouldn't expect him to last with the Owls either.

Temple 2009 schedule & forecast
9/3	Thu	vs.	Villanova	57%	W
9/19	Sat	@	Penn State	26%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Buffalo	55%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Eastern Michigan	57%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Ball State	54%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	Army	72%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Toledo	50%	W
10/31	Sat	@	Navy	56%	W
11/5	Thu	vs.	*Miami (Ohio)	74%	W
11/13	Fri	@	*Akron	49%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Kent State	62%	W
11/27	Fri	@	*Ohio	57%	W
Favored: 10-2   Projected: 7-5

2009 Season Outlook  Last year the team was essentially a reboot of the 2007 squad, so there were high hopes for improvement. The team was much better, but it didn't translate so much into victories due to a series of freak losses. After beating Army they lost to UConn in overtime, then lost to Buffalo on a last-second TD pass. Two weeks later Western Michigan 7-3. Later they lost to Navy in overtime after having a commanding lead and at Kent State by 3. They did get a few of their own, beating Ohio 14-10 and Eastern Michigan 55-52. But with a little luck (or rather, a lot of luck) this team could have been 10-2.

Rather surprisingly, this year's projection has the team 10-2 after giving them nearly every benefit of the doubt. Seven close games go their way while one game (Akron) goes against them, along with an obligatory loss to Penn State. It's not like the Owls are projected to be an overpowering team; even I-AA Villanova could give them a run for their money. But they have just enough to be favored in pretty much all the close contests. If they hadn't lost Galette and Schulters, they'd likely be pegged at 11-1.

Reality check: assuming things don't go just perfectly for them and they're on the wrong side of luck now and then, we can look to the cumulative projection, which gives them 6.59 wins, rounded up to 7-5. What this says is that the Owls should have a winning season and go to a bowl game, but don't count on an amazing year. Their improvement as a team over last year will be marginal. Mostly it's because the MAC as a whole is weaker, and they get some of the tough teams (Buffalo) at home. I'd say that, given the key losses on offense and the defense's varying performance last year that 7-5 or 8-4 is a more realistic starting point for discussion. Going 7-1 in close games just isn't Temple's style lately.

69. Nevada Wolf Pack (WAC #2)       Polls: AP #50, USA/Coaches: #40

2008 Results:    Record: 7-6   Bowl: Lost to Maryland 42-35 (Humanitarian)   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #67    Success: #74    Overall: #68
Nevada hopes to parlay its powerful offense into a WAC title.
Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #21   Adj. Rush Yards: #6    Adj. Pass Yards: #39
There are two main reasons why the Wolf Pack have an top 25 offense. Exhibit A is the quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who passed for 2,849 yards and 22 touchdowns in 2008, with just seven interceptions, while rushing for 1,130 yards. Exhibit B is running back Vai Taua, who gained 1,521 yards on the ground. Together Kaepernick and Taua combined for 32 rushing TDs and put the ground game among the top ten in the nation. The Wolf Pack lose a couple of key receivers from last year, chiefly Marko Mitchell (1,141 yards, 10TDs) but Chris Wellington (632, 6) is back with tight end Virgil Green. The offensive line loses a a 4-year starter (Dominic Green) but standouts Alonzo Durham and Mike Gallett return with two half-time starters to form a solid wall once again for the running and passing game.
Defense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #108    Adj. Rush Def: #42    Adj. Pass Def: #120
The rushing defense was good last year. The passing defense was so poor that it made the overall unit one of the worst in the nation despite decent run-stopping capabilities. Their raw rushing defense ranked #6 in the nation, but they played a host of poor rushing teams so it really wasn't in the top 25. But it could be this season with three starters back in the front four: Nate Agaiava, who had just 10 tackles last season; Kevin Basped, who had 10 sacks; and Dontay Moch, who had 11. Two starters are lost at linebacker but James-Michael Johnson is back and Brandon Marshall started about half-time in '08; both are sophomores. The secondary is perplexing. On one hand, even corrected for facing the most pass-happy schedule in the country, they didn't do poorly against Graham Harrell as Phil Steele points out, nor give up such a bad completion percentage. But the proof is in their overall defensive score. If you're #6 in the NCAA in rushing defense, and have an average passing defense, you don't end up 99th in scoring defense (108th corrected). The secondary should improve somewhat as two full-time starters—leading tackler Jonathon Amaya (4 int) and Antoine Thompson—return with part-time starter Isaiah Frey. Mike Evans, however, won't be back from his ACL tear last season.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Brad Langley returns at punter after averaging 44 yards a boot last season (only 34.5 net though). Kicker Brett Jaekle, who hit 63 of 63 XPs and 14 of 17 field goals is gone, and JC transfer Ricky Drake will take over.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #119
Chris Ault is one of the longest-total-tenured coaches in America not quite up with Paternos and Bowdens but close as he celebrates his non-consecutive silver anniversary with the team this season. He actually started at Nevada when Bobby Bowden started at FSU in 1976 and is still going strong. As he hits 65, however, there may be some issues with recruiting, unless this year is an aberration. This year's class was small to start with and had few above-average players, then the one standout—offensive lineman Aminiasi Silatolu, who was expected to battle for a starting spot—didn't qualify, leaving this class among the lowest-rated in the country.

Nevada 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	@	Notre Dame	29%	L
9/19	Sat	@	Colorado State	54%	W
9/25	Fri	vs.	Missouri	41%	L
10/3	Sat	vs.	UNLV	59%	W
10/9	Fri	vs.	*Louisiana Tech	60%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Utah State	54%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Idaho	84%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Hawaii	69%	W
11/8	Sun	@	*San Jose State	56%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Fresno State	56%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*New Mexico State	70%	W
11/27	Fri	@	*Boise State	28%	L
Favored: 9-3   Projected: 7-5

2009 Season Outlook  Unlike last year, when the Pack opened with Grambling State and ended with Louisiana Tech, and in-between went 5-5, this year the team opens at Notre Dame and finishes at Boise State, but everything in-between looks delicious.

The same familiar pattern should be there of putting up 40+ points against all but the best teams they face, and giving double digits but fewer than they score. The passing defense won't have to face Texas Tech again; they'll face Missouri but not Chase Daniel. Much of the rest of the league passes a lot but doesn't have the defense to cope with Nevada, and many of the WAC teams are actually either run-oriented or not overwhelming passing teams in any case.

The Wolf Pack will likely lose at Notre Dame, and at Boise State meaning they won't win the WAC. They should split Colorado State and Missouri, but after that they can probably go from October 3rd to November 21st with a decent expectation of winning each week. Whether they achieve a 9-3 record or only the cume projection 7-5 they should find themselves in a bowl game. But if the scoring defense turns out worse than last year the season won't be so sunny.

70. Ball State Cardinals (Mid-American #3; West #2)

2008 Results:    Record: 12-2   Bowl: Lost to Tulsa 45-13 (GMAC Bowl)   Poll finish: AP #32; USA #33
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #39    Success: #24    Overall: #40
Like Rice, Ball State loses the majority of its offensive stars after a near-dream season.
Offense (4 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #42   Adj. Rush Yards: #59    Adj. Pass Yards: #33
Ball State had three superstars on last year's potent offense: quarterback Nate Davis, tailback MiQuale Lewis, and receiver/returning Dante Love, a trio every bit as good as Oklahoma State's celebrated Robinson/Hunter/Bryant combo. Love suffered a career-ending injury against Indiana, and Davis (3,591 yards, 26 TDs, 8 int) is gone, leaving Lewis (1,736 yards, 22 TD) the focus of the offense. This year he'll be running behind a line that replaces everyone except 2-year starter Michael Switzer. Redshirt freshman Kelly Page has the QB job for now; he has leading receiver Briggs Orsbon (813 yards) and tight end Madaris Grant (#6 receiver last year) back, but this year will be challenging for the newcomer.
Defense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #48    Adj. Rush Def: #84     Adj. Pass Def: #44
The defense wasn't as heralded as the offense last year, but they did a great job until the post-season. Rushing defense was their weaker area, but that should improve as the D-line features four returning starters: ends Brandon Crawford and Robert Eddins and tacklers Drew Duffin and Rene Perry. At linebacker Davyd Jones is back but they lose two starters who combined for 10 of Ball State's 25 sacks. The secondary boasts safeties Alex Knipp and Sean Baker, the team's two top tacklers, who had 8 interceptions and 16 pass bat-downs between them but they lose both corners and backup safety Derrick Henry left after spring. The defense loses 4 of their top 7 tacklers but return 9 of the next 12 and could see overall improvement, particularly against the run as they move to a 4-3.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Kicker Ian McGarvey (16 of 21 FG) is back but they'll miss punter Chris Miller, who had a 43.5 average, a 37.7 net, and placed 19 of his 45 punts inside the 20.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #100
First-year coach Stan Parrish takes over from being offensive coordinator and has a tough act to follow in his first year but he won't be blamed for any decline this season. His first recruiting class as head coach was decent, and in-line with the average for a MAC conference member.

Ball State 2009 schedule & forecast
9/3	Thu	vs.	North Texas	80%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	New Hampshire	58%	W
9/19	Sat	@	Army	65%	W
9/26	Sat	@	Auburn	37%	L
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Toledo	57%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Temple	46%	L
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Bowling Green	59%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Eastern Michigan	57%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Ohio	63%	W
11/12	Thu	@	*Northern Illinois	55%	W
11/18	Wed	vs.	*Central Michigan	50%	L
11/24	Tue	@	*Western Michigan	52%	W
Favored: 9-3   Projected: 7-5

2009 Season Outlook  It was almost the dream season, but in the last two games it fell apart. Last year in scouting Ball State I asked in the headline "Could Ball State Go 12-0?" a question not many people were asking but one that turned out particularly apt, as they *did* go 12-0, but not undefeated.

The one game I questioned last season was Indiana, and the Cardinals won that one 42-20 but not without a cost: Dante Love, who was stirring up Heisman talk (at least at SportsRatings) was injured and his football career ended. Ball State kept rolling without him, though, and finished the regular season 12-0, scoring 40 points six times and holding all teams to 24 or fewer points. But against Buffalo in the MAC championship they were upset 42-24 in a bizarre game they could have won. Not so the bowl game against Tulsa, where both the offense and defense were ineffective. Coach Brady Hoke had left the team between the two losses and the disappointment of the Buffalo loss and the loss of Brady showed in a listless performance.

This year the schedule works out well enough to hope for another very successful season. Getting Central Michigan at home even means they have a shot at returning to the MAC championship. Early games against North Texas, tough I-AA New Hampshire, and Army should all be wins. The MAC is not as good this season and the Cardinals should still be favorites in most of the games. Going 9-3, though, requires that they win five of six at the end, which will be tough given the losses on offense. But that offense and the O-line will be more experienced by then so they should be able to win the majority and they still have Lewis. The cumulative projection gives them seven wins, which is probably more realistic. But the Cardinals, despite their personnel losses, can look forward to another bowl game this year.

2009 Pre-season Rankings - #71 to #75: Rice, Kentucky, Iowa State, Air Force, Buffalo

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #71 to #75. To see the full list, click here.

71. Rice Owls (Conference USA #6; West #4)

2008 Results:    Record: 10-3   Bowl: beat W. Michigan 38-14 (Texas Bowl)   Poll finish: AP #35; USA #34
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #51    Success: #35    Overall: #47
Chase Clement is gone and with him the offense that led to their success last year.
Offense (4 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #11   Adj. Rush Yards: #82    Adj. Pass Yards: #4
The Owls' losses on offense are extensive. Chase Clement: 4,119 passing yards (44 TDs) and 693 rushing yards (12 TDs); receivers James Casey and Jarett Dillard: 198 receptions total, over 1,300 yards each, and 33 combined touchdowns (Casey also had 6 rushing TDs); tailback back C.J. Ugokwe (809 yards); and three offensive line starters including 4-year starters Austin Wilkinson and David Berken. The solutions: John Thomas Shepherd (15 attempts last year) or sophomore Alabama transfer Nick Fanuzzi at quarterback; Jeramy Goodson (69 yards last year) at tailback; Toren Dixon (50 rec.) and Corbin Smiter (30) are back at receiver. This is going to be a very different offense, and unfortunately for the Owls, far less effective.
Defense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #106    Adj. Rush Def: #99    Adj. Pass Def: #105
The defense was as bad most of the year as the offense was good, but this year they might be closer to equivalent. Three of four starters return to the defensive line with both linebacker returning as well, thus five of six starters are back at the front of Rice's 4-2-5 scheme which should yield improvement in the rushing defense. The five-man secondary is in good shape, too. Top tackler Andrew Sendejo (3 INT) is back along with four other half-time starters: hybrid safety Travis Bradshaw (#2 tackler), strong safety Chris Jones (#4 tackler), corner Chris Jammer, and Willie Garley (#5 tackler, 2nd string this year). With the front and back of the defense loaded and the eight top tacklers back, there should be marked improvement on this side of the ball.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Mediocre punter Kyle Martens (38.3 yards per punt) will try to improve in his sophomore year. Kicker Clark Fangmeier hit 73 of 73 extra points and 6 of 10 field goals, and should be back after hip surgery, otherwise duties will fall to freshman Chris Boswell.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #88
David Bailiff's first year at Rice was tough at 3-9 and I didn't expect much better for 2008. Instead, the offense took a quantum leap and even overcame the defense's deficiencies and Rice won their first 10-win season and bowl win in over 50 years. His 3rd recruiting class is much better, ranking near the middle of the CUSA. Offensive lineman Bobby Janisch from Houston is one of a half-dozen above-average prospects.

Rice 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	@	*UAB	56%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Texas Tech	25%	L
9/19	Sat	@	Oklahoma State	24%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	Vanderbilt	41%	L
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Tulsa	45%	L
10/10	Sat	vs.	Navy	62%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*East Carolina	40%	L
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Central Florida	57%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Southern Methodist	58%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Tulane	70%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*UTEP	53%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*Houston	42%	L
Favored: 6-6   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  From Rice's first two games it was clear that offense was going to win them some games, scoring 56 and 42 in wins over SMU and Memphis. Vanderbilt's defense and Texas' offense and defense were too much, and Tulsa's offense overwhelmed the defense but other than that it was the same winning formula: scoring a lot of points and holding the other team to fewer points, even if it's just 5 or 7 fewer.

By the end of the year the Owls had won six straight and headed into a bowl game with Western Michigan that had shootout written all over it. Instead, Rice mopped the floor with the Broncos, holding them to 14 for their first bowl win since the 1953 season.

This year the losses on offense are heavy. There are still good receivers, but not the duo they had before. And with Clement gone there will be an unproven quarterback at the helm playing behind offensive line issues. The defense should be much better, however, but not enough to offset the losses on offense. Bailiff did a good job getting them prepared for last year and I'm sure they'll improve over the course of the season on offense, which is good because the majority of their winnable games come late in the season. With a 2nd-half push they could reach bowl eligibility again. They might win their 2nd bowl game since 1954 but their 2nd 10-win season since that era will have to wait.

72. Kentucky Wildcats (SEC #11; East #6)     Polls: USA/Coaches: #42

2008 Results:    Record: 7-6   Bowl: Beat East Carolina 25-19 (Liberty)   Poll finish: USA #38
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #62    Success: #54    Overall: #63
After losing two more starters this summer the Wildcats may struggle this year in an extra-tough SEC.
Offense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #72   Adj. Rush Yards: #72    Adj. Pass Yards: #87
It seems that the quarterback job is settled, with Mike Hartline the starter while Randall Cobb is permanently at wide receiver, save a wildcat formation here and there. Hartline could stand to improve all his stats from last year (the 55% completion rate, the 1,666 yards, only 9 TDs and 8 interceptions), but he'll have plenty of guys to throw to. Top receiver Dicky Lyons is gone as is starter E.J. Adams who left after spring. But Kentucky's receiving yardage wasn't concentrated in any set of hands, and six returnees had between 181 and 204 yards including Cobb and tight end T.C. Drake. The running game loses Tony Dixon (7 TDs) but again, the yardage was spread out with Cobb the #2 (7 TDs) and two others over 300 yards. The offensive line returns three starters. The offense is in better shape than six returning starters implies because the production in skill positions was so spread out and most of the reserves are back as well.
Defense (4 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #51    Adj. Rush Def: #65    Adj. Pass Def: #60
The defense isn't in as good of shape. The front four returns just one starter as Jeremy Jarmon, counted on to anchor the line with senior Corey Peters, failed a drug test and was ruled ineligible. He entered the NFL supplemental draft and will be a big loss for the 'Cats. At linebacker they return Micah Johnson, the team's #2 tackler last year who had 13 total tackles for loss, but lose #1 tackler Braxon Kelly. The secondary is not as spotty even though just one full-time starter returns from last year. Trevard Lindley is a three-year starter and batted down 11 passes last year and intercepted four. Two half-time starters return at safety (Ashton Cobb and Matt Lentz) but they are listed behind Calvin Harrison and sophomore Winston Guy. Paul Warford is back from '07 at the other corner, so this unit is in far better shape than the front seven.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Tim Masthay (45.2 average) is gone, and last year's short punter Ryan Tydlacka (16 inside the 20 of 22 punts) takes over. Kicker Lones Sieber (11 of 19 FGs) is back.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #24
Rich Brooks is fighting the good fight in trying to build a winning football program at basketball school Kentucky. He's made a lot of progress last year but it's hard to get over the hump in the SEC. A good case in point is recruiting. This year the good news is he probably scored a top 25 class. The bad news is that it ranks 11th out of 12 schools in the conference. His top recruits for '09 include quarterback Ryan Mossakowski and defensive lineman DeQuin Evans—and defensive lineman Donte Rumph, who failed to qualify academically for the 2nd straight year.

UK 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	N	Miami (Ohio)	70%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Louisville	56%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Florida	0%	L
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	25%	L
10/10	Sat	@	*South Carolina	42%	L
10/17	Sat	@	*Auburn	37%	L
10/24	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Monroe	66%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	61%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	Eastern Kentucky	77%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	34%	L
11/21	Sat	@	*Georgia	30%	L
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	48%	L
Favored: 5-7   Projected: 5-7

2009 Season Outlook  Last year was a transitional season post-Andre Woodson, and there was a quarterback controversy between Hartline and Cobb. The offense suffered accordingly. The defense played well early as expected, giving up only 20 points in the first four games, but once they were past the easier early-season teams the offense couldn't produce, and holding Alabama to 17 and South Carolina to 24 didn't yield victories. They edged Arkansas 21-20 and Mississippi 14-13 but lost their final three to end up 6-6. A sloppy Liberty bowl ended in a 25-19 win over East Carolina with some momentum toward this year. 

This year a lot of starters were gone, and it could have been worse if several players hadn't returned for their senior year instead of opting for the NFL. Even so, two of these returnees (Jarmon and Adams) ended up in the supplemental draft this summer anyway, and 2009 turned into a rebuilding year.

Once again the Wildcats have a favorable non-conference schedule, with Miami of Ohio, Louisville, ULM, and Eastern Kentucky all tagged as wins. Which is good because there aren't many SEC games they are expected to win. Also, seven games are at home with one on a neutral field; they'll probably lose the four road games. The cumulative projection gives them almost six wins; it may come down to the game against Tennessee (at home) as to whether the Wildcats go bowling this year or not. Considering all their personnel losses and the state of the SEC this year, it would be quite an accomplishment.

73. Iowa State Cyclones (Big Twelve #12; North #6)

2008 Results:    Record: 2-10   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #93    Success: #112    Overall: #94
The Cyclones should be a lot better this year but still at the bottom of the Big 12 North.
Offense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #77   Adj. Rush Yards: #84    Adj. Pass Yards: #28
Austen Arnaud became a potent offensive player last season even as the Cyclones struggled to compete in the Big Twelve, throwing for 2,800 yards and 15 touchdowns and rushing for 400 yards and another 5 scores. There should be more ground options this year with leading rusher Alexander Robinson (703 yds) back and Florida transfer Bo Williams eligible. Leading receiver R.J. Sumrall (7 TDs) is gone but the rest of the corps is back. And while the O-line returns just one full-time starter there are several half- and part-time starters returning to give the 'Clones good protection as they move to a no-huddle spread offense.
Defense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #96    Adj. Rush Def: #83    Adj. Pass Def: #116
The defense, particularly the pass defense, is what kept the Cyclones out of the win column despite an improving offense last season, and it remains their chief concern. Having terrible pass defense in the Big Twelve is a recipe for disaster, and this year might not be much better. They lose three who started the majority of games but have free safety James Smith (#1 tackler) back and several part-timers at corner including #5 tackler Leonard Johnson (2 int). At linebacker the #2 and #3 tacklers—Jesse Smith and Fred Garrin—are back. And while the rushing defense wasn't great last year it will still be the mainstay of the defense as two starters are back plus Chris Lyle who was the team's #7 tackler. Five of the top seven tacklers are back overall and the defense should be at least somewhat better.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Mike Brandtner (41.6 average) and Grant Mahoney (17 of 25 FG) are back at punter and kicker for the Cyclones.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #60
With all the coaching changes in recent years (Gene Chizik was here just two years) it's remarkable that recruiting remained steady for the most part before Paul Rhoads' first season. Rhoads makes it the 2nd former Auburn defensive coordinator in a row to coach Iowa State, who hasn't had a winning team the last three seasons nor more than seven wins since 2000 (which may be why Rhoads' contract gives a 100K bonus for every win over the 7th). Though the recruiting class is about average nationally it ranks 2nd to last in the Big 12. They did out-recruit in-state rival Iowa this year, which is interesting, though the Cyclones still got fewer big-impact players. While there are several prospects with above-average potential the closest the Cyclones got to a blue chip was Darrius Reynolds, a QB from Reedly, CA who will probably play receiver.

Iowa State 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	N. Dakota St.	65%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Iowa	32%	L
9/19	Sat	@	Kent State	53%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	Army	71%	W
10/3	Sat	N	*Kansas State	48%	L
10/10	Sat	@	*Kansas	29%	L
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Baylor	38%	L
10/24	Sat	@	*Nebraska	39%	L
10/31	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	44%	L
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma State	30%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Colorado	50%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Missouri	33%	L
Favored: 4-8   Projected: 5-7

2009 Season Outlook  Iowa State got their wins out of the way early last year, and though they had an easier time with I-AA South Dakota State than I thought they would the season went about like I expected, with no wins in the Big Twelve.

New offensive coordinator Tom Herman comes from Rice, where he faced a situation (somewhat) similar to this year's Cyclones: a talented quarterback, deep receiving squad, poor defense, and a losing team. But the Rice offense was so powerful in 2008 that it made the defense's deficiencies all but irrelevant in most games and the Owls finished 10-3.

That was in his *second* year at Rice, however. The first year they went 3-9, which is what the Cyclones will do if they follow the script (with the Colorado game a tossup). Again the wins will come early in the season: the other Dakota, Kent State again (if they can win their first road game in four years)...and scheduling kindness gives them Army at home. The Big 12 schedule looks daunting again, although there are a few close games they could nab and between those and upsets the Cyclones could come close to bowl eligibility this season. But I think if Iowa State is going to have a breakthrough year it will have to wait until next year. By then the team will have absorbed the new system, Arnaud will be a senior, and like Rice, the offense can power its way to victory despite the defensive shortcomings. If it happens this year Paul Rhoads will look like a miracle worker and Auburn will feel like they made a bad deal.

74. Air Force Falcons (Mountain West #4)

2008 Results:    Record: 8-5   Bowl: Lost to Houston 34-28 (Armed Forces)   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #57    Success: #53    Overall: #56
Air Force once again looks weaker than the previous year, can Troy Calhoun coach them to another bowl game?
Offense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #64   Adj. Rush Yards: #4    Adj. Pass Yards: #117
Some pundits keep calling for Air Force to upgrade its passing game, but for this offensive style the running game is paramount. That said, sophomore quarterback Tim Jefferson's 655 yards represents an upgrade for the Falcons and he should only be better this year. Tight end Josh Cousins is among the three top receivers back (Kyle Haldeman will miss at least the first three games with a broken collarbone), and the Falcons should raise their low passing totals with Jefferson at the helm a full year. But the running game is where they should be striving to finish #1 in the nation. Their top rusher, fullback Todd Newell is gone but the #2, tailback Asher Clark returns with four others who had 200+ yards so there will be plenty of options. Three starters return on the offensive line including 3-year starter Nick Charles. With Jefferson more experienced and Clark able to play QB in a pinch the offense should be in good shape.
Defense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #47    Adj. Rush Def: #43    Adj. Pass Def: #39
The defense was decent across the board last year, but this year the rushing defense is going to be the main concern as just three of the front seven return. Nose guard Ben Garland is back but is the only starter returning to the front three. Two starters are back in the middle four including #1 tackler Ken Lamendola. The secondary was good last year and should be even better, with Chris Thomas (5 sacks from safety) and Anthony Wright back. Corner Reggie Rembert is still with the team but suspended for an unknown amount of games. At full strength the pass defense will be even better.
Kicking Game (0 RS): Ryan Harrison handled both chores for the Falcons last year kicking 24 of 29 field goals and averaging 38.9 per punt. Brandon Geyer averaged a whopping 48.9 yards (but on just 9 punts) and will take over that job, while junior Zack Bell is lined up as kicker.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #119
Troy Calhoun worked wonders in his first year as Falcon head coach, turning the team around from 4-8 to 9-3. Last year they faced steep losses, returning only 8 starters. I wrote "anything beyond six wins is more evidence that Troy Calhoun is a great coach" and he proved himself again as the team went 8-4 and went to a 2nd straight Armed Forces Bowl which they again lost in a close game. Recruiting at Air Force is a challenge, especially since it's the only academy in a conference. This season's class consists of a few dozens recruits of Division I-A caliber and none that are highly-touted, putting Calhoun's '09 class at the bottom of the MWC and the nation. The need wasn't as great this year since last year's class ranked in the middle of the country and had standouts such as A.J. Wallerstein who will see plenty of time on the offensive line as a sophomore; there will be plenty more playing from that class coming from stints on the prep school and JV teams.

Air Force 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Nicholls State	76%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Minnesota	33%	L
9/19	Sat	@	*New Mexico	53%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	*San Diego State	68%	W
10/3	Sat	@	Navy	54%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*TCU	33%	L
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Wyoming	65%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Utah	33%	L
10/31	Sat	@	*Colorado State	53%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	Army	70%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*UNLV	58%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*BYU	40%	L
Favored: 8-4   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  Air Force didn't waste time in '08, picking up right where they left off with three wins including a 31-28 victory at Houston. They lost two close games that would have made their season special—one to Utah, who went undefeated, and to rival Navy. But they reeled off five straight wins, four MWC teams and Army. Things were looking good at 8-2 but they had BYU and TCU left and couldn't pull off either upset. Rematched with Houston (why oh why?) in the Armed Services Bowl, it was close again but they lost this time around. Going 8-4 was quite an accomplishment as 4-8 wouldn't have been surprising considering all the personnel they lost.

They lose a lot this year, too, but still have 12 starters back on offense and defense and they cover the missing positions pretty well. Thus despite again being not as good as the year before, any decline might not show up in the Falcons' record. Three of these wins are very close and could go the other way, so they'll need some luck in winning close games, but I'll call that "intangibles of coaching" and give credit to Calhoun. The projection of 6-6 might be more realistic but either way, the Falcons should be bowl-bound again in 2009.

75. Buffalo Bulls (Mid-American #4; East #2)

2008 Results:    Record: 8-6   Bowl: Lost to UConn 38-20 (International)   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #66    Success: #60    Overall: #66
Turner Gill shopped around but ended up back at Buffalo. Syracuse's loss is their gain, suckers.
Offense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #43   Adj. Rush Yards: #85    Adj. Pass Yards: #42
Drew Willy was perhaps the least-well-known quarterback to throw for 3,300 yards and 25 TDs in 2008 with only 6 interceptions. Now one of his little-used backups, probably Zach Maynard, will win the slot. James Starks, too, was one of the least-hyped 1,333 yard/16 TD rushers in the country. Then there's Naaman Roosevelt, a receiver with 100 catches, 1,402 yards and 10 TDs. This was Buffalo's version of Oklahoma State's Robinson/Hunter/Bryant trio, and 2/3 of it is back but only 1/3 of it is back since Starks recently had to undergo shoulder surgery that will keep him out this season, ending his college football career. Receiver Brett Hamlin and tight end Jesse Rack will further aid the new QB, but three full-time starters are missing from the offensive line. They get one back from '07, but everything looks to be a little bit harder this year, and without Starks more will be riding on Brandon Thermilus' shoulders along with the rest of the running back corps.
Defense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #81    Adj. Rush Def: #95    Adj. Pass Def: #89
The defense needs an upgrade and there is returning talent to make it happen. The front four is the most suspect area, particularly after a poor showing in '08, but Anel Montanez is back while Dane Robinson returns from a mid-season. The linebackers this year can make up for any deficiencies up front with starters back at all three positions including Justin Winters, the team's #1 tackler and Raphael Akobundu also a full-time starter. Scott Pettigrew started most of the year and Tom Drewes the rest of it, but both may take a back seat to incoming freshman Darius Willis. As stacked as the Bulls are at linebacker the secondary is equally loaded, with three full-time starters (Davonte Shannon, Mike Newton, and Domonic Cook—the team's #2, 3, and 4 tacklers) back plus Josh Thomas and Kendrick Hawkins handling the other corner slot. In all the 8 top tacklers return and the back seven of this defense could be scary; as long as the D-line gels the Buffaloes should be a lot tougher to gain yards on.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Buffalo had serviceable punting and kicking last year, provided by Peter Fardon (39.1 average) and A.J. Principe (12 of 17 FG, 48 of 52 xp). Both return.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #114
With all the hype surrounding head coach Turner Gill, you'd think he'd be getting great recruiting classes, at least relative to the MAC, which might be the key to his success. But it's not so simple. Sure, Gill is getting great recruits for a new I-A school that was consistently winning 1 or 2 games a year until he took over. But for the FBS, and even the MAC, his recruiting classes rank very near the bottom.

This tells us one of two (or both) things: either Gill and his staff are seeing things in these recruits that others don't, or he gets more out of what little he's getting. Clearly Buffalo is a fairly talented team at present, yet still there are freshmen and redshirt freshmen all over the 2-deep. If these classes are (were) so bad, why is Darrius Willis (originally part of '08 class) starting at linebacker? And Steven Means at defensive end? And Terry Peden and David Skrip expected to contribute on the D- and O-lines? That's not even looking at true sophomores. Gill is building a team and building it out of the same blocks everyone else is, but his finished product looks better.

Buffalo 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	@	UTEP	44%	L
9/12	Sat	vs.	Pittsburgh	40%	L
9/19	Sat	@	Central Florida	48%	L
9/26	Sat	@	*Temple	44%	L
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Central Michigan	48%	L
10/10	Sat	vs.	Gardner-Webb	77%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Akron	54%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Western Michigan	51%	W
11/3	Tue	vs.	*Bowling Green	57%	W
11/10	Tue	vs.	*Ohio	62%	W
11/18	Wed	@	*Miami (Ohio)	65%	W
11/27	Fri	@	*Kent State	53%	W
Favored: 7-5   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  Buffalo had a rocky road to the top last year, but they'll take it. Whipping UTEP in the opener was great, and they played Pitt and Missouri better than most people imagined, while beating Temple on a Hail Mary. They had tough losses at Central Michigan and overtime at home against W. Michigan, but then came a great string of wins, five in a row, and three of them in overtime, before a close loss to Kent State. Still, they went to the MAC championship game against heavily favored and undefeated Ball State and came out winners. The bowl loss to UConn was disappointing but the MAC crown was more than anyone could have imagined a few years ago without sacrificing their sanity.

This year looks like a tale of two seasons. Five close losses—Pitt at home and three losses on the road, followed by Central Michigan at home—might be in store for Buffalo early on. But don't get discouraged, Bulls fans...!

...because even and 0-5 start might not mean disaster. After that the Bulls should win all the rest of the close games on route to seven straight victories. Realistically this probably won't happen—they'll drop a game or two, just like it's probable that they'll win at least one of their first five. When it all averages out the Bulls might be 7-5, or 6-6 in some other configuration. But the bottom line is that they've got to keep their heads up as the offense finds its footing; if the first five games discourage them it could get ugly. Conversely, if they come out of the first five shining—say, with an upset of Pitt, or a 4-1 tally? It could be a breakthrough year even greater than '08. I'm a realist, though, and think that matching last year's regular season total of 7-5 is a more reasonable expectation, especially now that Starks is lost.

2009 Pre-season Rankings - #76 to #80: Marshall, Akron, Fresno State, Duke, Louisville

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #76 to #80. To see the full list, click here.

76. Marshall Thundering Herd (Conference USA #7; East #3)

2008 Results:    Record: 4-8   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #95    Success: #87    Overall: #96
Marshall seeks to rebound from a another losing season.
Offense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #105   Adj. Rush Yards: #54    Adj. Pass Yards: #98
The Herd are led by Doak Walker candidate Darrius Marshall, who had 1,100 yards last year and 5 TDs. With his main backup gone he'll likely carry as much or more of the load in 2009, assuming he stays out of trouble. Three offensive linemen are back; two were freshmen last year and should be much better. Junior Josh Evans was also expected back but recently transferred. Another reason Marshall runs a lot is mediocre quarterback play. Mark Cann completed only 50% for under 1,800 yards last year and had 13 interceptions; this spring he lost the starting nod to backup Brian Anderson, who was somewhat better last season in limited action. Top receiver Darrius Passmore (945 yards) is gone and Bryant Milligan recently transferred. The tight end slot(s) are well covered with Cody Slate (#2 receiver, 7 TDs) and Lee Smith back. Despite a decent number of returning starters there are questions almost everywhere except for running back and depth there is not great if something happens to Darrius Marshall.
Defense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #77    Adj. Rush Def: #71    Adj. Pass Def: #100
The defensive line is in great shape, essentially returning four starters with full-timers Albert McClelland  and Johnny Jones at end and tackle and the other positions covered by Delvin Johnson, James Burkes, and Michael Janac. Maurice Kitchens (4 INT) is gone from the linebacker squad, but #1 tackler Mario Harvey returns with Brandon Burns. The safeties are lost from the secondary but both starting corners are back, assuming that DeQuan Bembry (arrested for marijuana possession with Darrius Marshall) isn't suspended for more than the first game. The defense has excellent depth, too, losing only three letterman in the 2nd and 3rd string.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter Kase Whitehead (38.7 average but solid 36.5 net) returns at punter, and at kicker Craig Ratanamorn (7 of 11 FG) is back to start unless Tyler Warner (3 of 5) gets the job.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #81
Coach Mark Snyder hasn't had a winning season at the helm of Marshall, a school that used to go undefeated with semi-regularity. The pressure has to be on to win this year. The 2009 recruiting class isn't great by national or even C-USA standards, but it's not terrible and there are a handful of recruits with added potential. But it's not going to drastically impact this season. One of the better '09 recruits, QB A.J. Graham, was arrested for armed robbery and won't be joining the team but was later reinstated when the charges were dropped.

Marshall 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Southern Illinois	59%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Virginia Tech	29%	L
9/19	Sat	vs.	Bowling Green	57%	W
9/26	Sat	@	*Memphis	51%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*East Carolina	46%	L
10/10	Sat	@	*Tulane	61%	W
10/17	Sat	@	West Virginia	40%	L
10/24	Sat	vs.	*UAB	61%	W
11/1	Sun	@	*Central Florida	48%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Southern Miss	44%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Southern Methodist	63%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*UTEP	44%	L
Favored: 6-6   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  Marshall's wins came early in the season last year; the Herd stood 3-1, and 2-0 in C-USA play, after beating Memphis and Southern Mississippi. Two losses to Big East squads West Virginia and Cincinnati were expected but slowed their momentum, and they only won one game out of the last eight. Close losses to UAB (2 points), East Carolina (OT), and Tulsa (3 points) kept the Herd out of bowl contention again.

This year Marshall could start 3-1 again. Darrius Marshall, Bembry, and starting linebacker Corey Hart are suspended for the first game, making it a bit tighter but they should still win. There are also three probably victories in the last eight games meaning the Thundering Herd should be back in a bowl game in 2009. Even their losses are not set in stone, except perhaps Virginia Tech if the Hokies live up to their hype. All five games at the end of the season could be victories.

The odds are against that, though. The offense isn't great by any means, and injuries could wreak havoc. If everything works out superbly they could do much better, and if Darrius Marshall is hurt (or remains suspended, which is not expected) they could do worse. But overall it's likely that Marshall finishes 6-6. Will it be enough to save Snyder's job? That may depend on whether they win their bowl game, and 6-6 doesn't guaranteed a trip.

77. Akron Zips (Mid-American #5; East #3)

2008 Results:    Record: 5-7   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #79    Success: #97    Overall: #80
Akron's strength—offense—will get even stronger while the limp defense may continue to struggle.
Offense (9 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #46   Adj. Rush Yards: #55    Adj. Pass Yards: #38
Akron's high-powered (for the MAC) offense returns nine starters: Four offensive linemen, four receivers, and quarterback Chris Jacquemain. The latter threw 20 touchdown passes last year but also 14 interceptions or else the offense would have been even more potent. The all-senior receiving corps is led by Deryn Bowser who led with 785 yards and Andre Jones who had 7 TDs. Two seniors and two juniors return to the line but four-year starter Chris Kemme has to be replaced. The other starter missing from the offensive lineup is also significant: 1,000 yard rusher Dennis Kennedy, who had an astounding 17 touchdowns. #2 rusher Andrew Johnson is also gone, leaving Alex Allen next in line. Whoever emerges will run behind a seasoned line and the benefit of an offense that is not one-dimensional.
Defense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #104    Adj. Rush Def: #98    Adj. Pass Def: #87
The defense was the reason Akron fell short of bowl eligibility last year; twice down the stretch the offense scored 40+ but the team lost. The Zips' 3-3-5 didn't stop the run or the pass last year. The front line returns 3-year starter Almondo Sewell, but loses two as Shawn Lemon moves to "Rover" in the defensive backfield. Transfer Ryan Bain from Iowa will help pick up the slack. Mike Thomas, the #2 tackler on the squad last year, returns at the "Ban" linebacker slot, but #1 tackler Kevin Grant is gone. The "5" return four starters—Lemon moves the hybrid linebacker/corner slot, Miguel Graham at corner, Wayne Cobham at free safety and two other half-time starters at strong safety. The names and positions may change as the coaches are planning variations on the basic scheme to mix things up.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter John Stec (37.1 average) and kicker Igor Iveljic (18 of 28 FGs, 3 of 8 past the 40) are both back this year.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #72
Head coach J.D. Brookhart hasn't really elevated the program since he got here, and now he's being criticized for the performance of the defense. Akron's 2009 class is #2 in the MAC, but far from #1 Central Michigan. There's a fine line between most of the MAC recruiting classes, but this one is definitely in the top half. Boding well for the future there are some good recruits on defense, such as defensive lineman Chris Henderson and summer signee Emmanuel Lartey.

Akron 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	@	Penn State	24%	L
9/12	Sat	vs.	Morgan State	82%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Indiana	62%	W
9/26	Sat	@	*Central Michigan	41%	L
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Ohio	61%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Buffalo	46%	L
10/24	Sat	@	Syracuse	55%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Northern Illinois	53%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Kent State	60%	W
11/13	Fri	vs.	*Temple	51%	W
11/20	Fri	@	*Bowling Green	50%	W
11/27	Fri	vs.	*Eastern Michigan	62%	W
Favored: 9-3   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  In retrospect last year didn't contain many surprises. A loss to Wisconsin, a win over Syracuse. A loss to Ball State, a win over Army. The loss to Cincinnati was closer than expected, but it wasn't an upset. Last year I wrote that the Zips would face many close games and could be anywhere from 2-9 to 5-7. Six games ended within seven points but they lost most of those. The offense turned out much better than I thought while the defense was just as bad as I suspected.

This year the offense should be great while the defense will be improved. You can write off the game at Penn State and winning at CMU will be hard, but everything else is in play. I have the Zips winners in nine games, and but that counts very slim wins over Temple and Bowling Green, not to mention Syracuse (on the road this time) and Northern Illinois. With all these close games and uncertaintly the cumulative projection is just 6-6. Either way, that's bowl eligible—though 6-6 is not "bowl certain." To make sure of things, the defense will have to step up enough for the offense to do its thing, and Akron could be looking at 9-3 this year. I'll bet that the improvement on offense is enough to overcome any major problems on defense and by splitting the close games Akron will go 7-5 and reach a bowl game.

78. Fresno State Bulldogs (WAC #3)

2008 Results:    Record: 7-6   Bowl: Lost to Colorado St. 40-35 (New Mexico Bowl)   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #85    Success: #65    Overall: #85
The Bulldogs disappointed last year when some had them picked as a BCS buster.
Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #55   Adj. Rush Yards: #39    Adj. Pass Yards: #65
The first order of business for the Bulldog offense: replace 3-year starting quarterback Tom Brandstater, who took nearly every snap for the team last season hitting 60% for 2,664 yards and 18 touchdowns. Junior Ryan Colburn is the suspected replacement but there's really no one with experience. Helping matters is the return of all but one key receiver from last year, with Seyi Ajirotutu leading the way with 5 TD grabs. But the running game is more the bread and butter at Fresno, and all the leading backs return including the Anthony Harding (6 TDs) and Lonyae Miller (7 TDs) who both exceeded 800 yards and Ryan Mathews (6 TDs) who eclipsed 600 despite injury. Two multi-year starters were lost on the offensive line but everyone else returns, so look for a strong ground attack again from the Dogs.
Defense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #102    Adj. Rush Def: #114    Adj. Pass Def: #25
The front four loses one full-time starter (Ikenna Ike) and returns #2 tackler Chris Carter (who played both end and linebacker last season), Mark Roberts, and two others that started half-time as the Bulldogs look to correct a major problem with their rushing defense. Further reinforcing the line are three linebackers including Ben Jacobs (113 tackles, #1 on the team). The secondary features Moses Harris and half-time starters Desia Dunn and Lorne Bell. Again like so many teams with terrible rushing defense their passing yardage yielded was low, but they weren't tested often and the team had just 5 interceptions all year.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Robert Malone had a very decent punting average (42.8) but a terrible net (31.8) while kicker Kevin Goessling hit 15 of 22 field goals. Both are back for 2009.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #103
Pat Hill has been at Fresno State for a dozen years and has been winning consistently with a few token stumbles during rebuilding years. This year's signing class is uncharactistically low, rated in the middle of the WAC; last year's was near the top. But there are still standouts such as lineman Donnie Pritchett, linebacker Travis Brown, and most interestingly Derek Carr who is competing for the starting quarterback job as a true freshman.

Fresno State 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	California-Davis	71%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Wisconsin	38%	L
9/18	Fri	vs.	*Boise State	33%	L
9/26	Sat	@	Cincinnati	42%	L
10/10	Sat	@	*Hawaii	60%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*San Jose State	60%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*New Mexico State	67%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Utah State	58%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Idaho	74%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Nevada	44%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Louisiana Tech	57%	W
12/5	Sat	@	Illinois	31%	L
Favored: 7-5   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  Most publications were picking Fresno State to win the WAC last year and possibly run the table and go to a BCS bowl game. I didn't quite drink the Kool-Aid, picking them to finish behind Boise State and go 9-3. When they beat Rutgers—one of the losses I'd picked for them—I was surprised more at how poorly the Scarlett Knights played than impressed by the Bulldogs. The loss to Wisconsin just made up for the Rutgers win. But needing double overtime to beat Toledo made me pause, and finally the overtime loss to Hawaii made it clear that Fresno State was probably headed for a disappointing season.

They were 5-2 after beating Utah State, but their wins were so close it was hard to take seriously the idea that they might still end up in the top 25. Losses to Louisiana Tech and Nevada erased hopes that they could still contend for the WAC title, and a 61-10 drubbing by Boise State revealed the real pecking order of that conference in 2008. At 6-6 they went to a bowl game but lost to Colorado State 40-35.

This season they face Wisconsin and Boise State in the first three weeks and could be 1-3 after a trip to Cincinnati. But the next five games could be—and should be—victories. In all there are seven games the Bulldogs should win, or just over six by the cumulative odds. As usual Fresno State plays a tough non-conference slate with three BCS road games, two Big Ten teams and one Big East. Though they'll probably just match last year's record—or exceed it depending on who their bowl opponent is—that's not bad for a team breaking in a truly brand new quarterback, and if he develops then 2010 might be special.

79. Duke Blue Devils (ACC #11; Coastal #6)

2008 Results:    Record: 4-8   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #64    Success: #57    Overall: #64
Duke nearly had a breakthrough year in 2008 but now it's back to normal for the Blue Devils.
Offense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #73   Adj. Rush Yards: #95    Adj. Pass Yards: #75
Duke's offense wasn't overpowering last year but it wasn't bad for the first year in David Cutcliffe's system. Thaddeus Lewis returns at quarterback and has conveyed comfort with the system a year after he passed for 15 TDs with 62% completions and just 6 interceptions. Johnny Williams returns at receiver as does Brett Huffman at tight end but lose Eron Riley's 8 TD receptions. Just two starters are back on the offensive line, adding to concerns about the already-weak running game. Of the three top backs Clifford Harris is gone and Tony Jackson was dismissed after the spring, though Re'Quan Boyette returns from redshirting.
Defense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #57    Adj. Rush Def: #29    Adj. Pass Def: #117
The defensive line loses two starters but boasts three "O"s—Vince Oghobaase, Ayanga Okpokowuruk, and Wesley Oglesby. The other probable starter, Kinney Rucker, may or may not play this season after summer foot surgery. At linebacker they return Vincent Rey (109 tackles, 10.5 total tackles for loss) but lose Michael Tauiliili (140 tackles, 13 total tackles for loss, 4 interceptions). Two starters return in the secondary but possible starter Zack Asack—last year's backup QB—was kicked off the team this summer.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter Kevin Jones (40.8) is back along with kicker Nick Maggio (11 of 14 FG). Both are juniors.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #47
Duke's football recruiting ranking will never be mistaken for its basketball ranking. But this year—significantly Cutcliffe's second—their class is closer to the middle of the pack in the ACC than to the bottom. If this is going to be par for the course rather than an aberration a winning program will be built here eventually. Already, in just his first season, Cutcliffe led Duke to as many wins as they had in the four previous seasons. And while that was predicted by many based on their returning talent, the recruiting numbers give even more hope for the future. Cutcliffe didn't score any of the *huge* names, but got a big one in running back Desmond Scott with tackle John Drew another with potential.

Duke 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Richmond	47%	L
9/12	Sat	@	Army	62%	W
9/19	Sat	@	Kansas	28%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	North Carolina Central	100%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Virginia Tech	35%	L
10/10	Sat	@	*North Carolina State	39%	L
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Maryland	55%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Virginia	41%	L
11/7	Sat	@	*North Carolina	25%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Georgia Tech	34%	L
11/21	Sat	@	*Miami (Florida)	30%	L
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Wake Forest	40%	L
Favored: 3-9   Projected: 5-7

2009 Season Outlook  Last year's early success surprised some people who figured Duke to be stuck in 1-11 hell forever. But last year I picked the Blue Devils to go 5-7. They beat James Madison much more easily than I thought, and lost to Northwestern, beat Navy as expected and toppled Virginia to match my prediction of a 3-1 start. I figured 2008 was finally the year they'd get over the hump against Miami and for a while it looked like it was happening but the 'Canes rallied and blew them out 49-31. They beat Vanderbilt but lost in overtime to Wake Forest and struggled to four straight losses, three of which were competitive.

This season will likely be a step backwards, or a pause before the next charge perhaps. Though they Blue Devils play two FCS teams one of them is defending champion Richmond who will be a challenge. The other is a gimme, but winning both of them won't help their slim bowl hopes as only one victory can count toward the six needed. So Duke has to 7-5 to get to a bowl game but will likely do no better than 5-7. A slip to 3-9 is possible, too, as most of the losses aren't close. Because the offense should be on better footing in its second year and, mainly, because they cleaned up against James Madison last season, I'll say they beat Richmond and repeat their 4-8 record. As I said, a pause before the next advance. When you lose so many troops you need to regroup before forging ahead, but under General Cutcliffe they'll be bowl bound some day.

80. Louisville Cardinals (Big East #7)

2008 Results:    Record: 5-7   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #92    Success: #73    Overall: #92
Though better, the Cardinals are unlikely to recapture their form of a few years back.
Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #76   Adj. Rush Yards: #40    Adj. Pass Yards: #64
Hunter Cantwell is gone after a disappointing season in which he threw as many interceptions as touchdowns, and for the first time in a long time an unfamiliar face will take over with junior Justin Burke, a transfer from N.C. State, expected to take over. The offensive line loses two starters with a combined seven years of starting experience with the departures of Eric Wood and George Bussey. All the top receivers return including Doug Beaumont and John Chichester. The running game was sound last year and Victor Anderson returns after going over 1,000 yards and scoring 8 touchdowns. The clear wildcard in this equation is quarterback play.
Defense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #92    Adj. Rush Def: #35    Adj. Pass Def: #109
The defensive line is a question, losing three starters who accounted for 12 of the team's 14 sacks including Earl Heyman's six. Two part-time starters return but the pass rush will likely get even worse and the rushing defense suffer. The linebacking corps can pick up some of that slack, however, returning the #1 (Jon Dempsey), #6, #8, and #12 tacklers from last year. The secondary was the defense's achilles' heel last season. Corner Johnny Patrick is back along with safety Daniel Covington, but if the defensive line still can't generate a pass rush then things won't get any better on pass defense, and could get even worse.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Corey Goettsche is back after averaging an average 40.0 per punt, while two placekickers from last year are back after hitting a combined 4 of 8 field goals. However, sophomore Chris Philpott, who handled kickoffs and was just 1 of 3 on field goals, is listed as the starter post-spring. None of last year's kickers connected on a 40-yarder.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #62
Steve Kragthorpe has basically overseen a dip in the fortunes of the Louisville program from the heights it reached under Bobby Petrino, with two mediocre non-bowl seasons under his belt. His 2009 recruiting class is in the bottom half of the Big East and average for the nation as a whole. Worse yet, one of his top recruits, defensive lineman Peni Fiu’angaihetau, did not qualify. Another JUCO player, offensive lineman Joe Evinger, is the only other borderline blue chip in the class, though many others (mostly JUCOs) are above-average. Last year's class included starting defensive tackle Tyler Jessen.

Louisville 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Indiana State	100%	W
9/19	Sat	@	Kentucky	44%	L
9/26	Sat	@	Utah	30%	L
10/2	Fri	vs.	*Pittsburgh	39%	L
10/10	Sat	vs.	Southern Miss	42%	L
10/17	Sat	@	*Connecticut	42%	L
10/24	Sat	@	*Cincinnati	41%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	Arkansas State	54%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*West Virginia	38%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Syracuse	60%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*South Florida	36%	L
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Rutgers	37%	L
Favored: 3-9   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook Last year was another disappoinment for Cardinals fans. Long known as a team that exceeded expectations, they've endured two years where the team has underperformed. Not as much was expected last year (SportsRatings had them #69 pre-season and winning 4 or 5 games) but no one thought the defense would outscore the offense in their opener, a 27-2 loss to Kentucky. By mid-season it looked like they'd gotten a handle on things; despite a strange loss to UConn, after a 24-20 upset of South Florida they stood 5-2.

Then came another embarrassing loss to Syracuse, kicking off a five-game skid that culminated with a 63-14 crushing by Rutgers. Last year I wrote: "The last four-game stretch is terrible, and will be worse since they'll be 4-4 or 5-3 after November 1st, with hopes for a bowl game about to be crushed." I did not, however, foresee another loss to the Orange.

I don't predict a loss to Syracuse this year, either, but that's one of the few wins that look certain and we know what happened the last two years. The opener is against 0-12 I-AA Indiana State, and they play a Sun Belt squad for the 2nd year, this time Arkansas State. But Kentucky is on the road this year, and they've got a road game at Utah as well. The Cardinals could finish 3-9 easily, but on the other hand there are enough close games to make a 6-6 year almost likely. If the new quarterback play is excellent it could be a reality; if it's not, and if the defense has problems like last year with pass defense they could finish worse than this year. I'll go with another 5-7 year for the Cardinals and Kragthorpe on the major hot seat.