Thursday January 1st: Outback Bowl in Tampa, FL 11:00 am eastern
#25 Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (7-5)
The early game on New Year's Day, before the more important games begin. Iowa features Shonn Greene while South Carolina...is 7-5.
Vegas line: Iowa by 4.
The Hawks are favored by a bit more than a field goal, a 3 1/2 to 4 point range.
Strength Power Rating: Iowa 23 South Carolina 11
Iowa has only the 38th best scoring offense adjusted for opposition, but their defense ranks #7. South Carolina is similarly defense-minded, ranking 15th while their offense is just 69th. The Gamecock offense-Hawkeye defense matchup is a big reason the Strength Power Rating has Iowa winning by a dozen.
Yardage analysis: Iowa 14 South Carolina 13
By yardage the Gamecocks still don't look to score much, but neither does Iowa. The Hawkeye defense is #10, the Gamecock offense just 78th. But Iowa's offense only ranks 58th by yardage while South Carolina's defense is even better than Iowa's in preventing yardage, ranking #6.
When South Carolina has the ball
South Carolina rushing offense: #98 Iowa rushing defense: #7
South Carolina passing offense: #51 Iowa passing defense: #40
Iowa shuts down the run, and South Carolina doesn't have a great running game in any case. Consistency at quarterback has been a problem for South Carolina, with Chris Smelley never solidifying his starting spot against redshirt freshman Stephen Garcia, who may be great some day but isn't quite there yet. Garcia is pegged to start. Both quarterbacks have had trouble with interceptions, and Iowa has 20 interceptions this year. The low-scoring projections for South Carolina make sense.
When Iowa has the ball
Iowa rushing offense: #24 South Carolina rushing defense: #20
Iowa passing offense: #100 South Carolina passing defense: #12
Iowa isn't much of a passing threat; quarterback Rick Stanzi took over the starting job but hasn't been the team's playmaker—that would be running back Shonn Greene, the Doak Walker award winner. So the fact that South Carolina is great against the pass means a lot less. They're good against the run, too, ranking #20. But Iowa has faced good rushing defenses before, and here's what happened: Against Wisconsin's 17th ranked rushing defense, Greene had 217 yards and 4 touchdowns. Pitt, #17 against the run? 147 yards for Greene. #10 Penn State? 117 yards, 2 TDs. No one's been able to stop Greene so far, and it's unlikely that any team other than TCU could hold him under 100 yards.
Game-comparison win %
Iowa 75%
South Carolina 25%
Iowa's game performances rate higher than South Carolina's, making the Hawks a 3-to-1 favorite by this method.
South Carolina's key games
Wins over bowl teams (3)
- North Carolina State 34-0 (1st game of season)
- @ #24 Mississippi 31-24 (6th)
- @ Kentucky 24-17 (7th)
Losses (5):
- @ Vanderbilt 24-17
- @ #17 Georgia 14-7
- LSU 24-17
- #5 Florida 56-6
- @ Clemson 31-14
South Carolina opened with their best game of the year, dominating North Carolina State 34-0. They followed that with 7-point losses against Vanderbilt and Georgia, and played just as poorly in the next two wins, 23-13 over Wofford and 26-13 over UAB. In fact, the Gamecocks really played well in only four of their last eleven games, beating Mississippi, Kentucky, Tennessee and Arkansas handily between dismal losses to LSU, Florida, and Clemson.
On the bright side, South Carolina didn't lose to any bad teams; all the teams that beat them went to bowl games. Their lack of offense cost them dearly this season; in three of their losses they limited their opponent to 24 or fewer points, but were held to 17 or fewer themselves. Their season high was 34 points, which they attained twice.
Iowa's key games
Wins over bowl teams (3):
- Wisconsin 38-31 (8th game of season)
- #8 Penn State 24-23 (10th)
- Minnesota 55-0 (12th)
Losses (4):
- @ #20 Pittsburgh 21-20
- #21 Northwestern 22-17
- @ #19 Michigan State 16-13
- @ Illinois 27-24
Iowa played six good games and six bad games in 2008. Most of the bad ones came early in narrow losses to three top 25 teams. The Hawkeyes were a few points away from greatness this season, at least in terms of their record, losing by 1, 5, 3, and 3 points.
The team improved throughout the year, Shonn Greene and the offense carrying the load while the offense made fewer mistakes and won more of the close ones. Still, they regressed occasionally, such as the loss to Illinois and weak win at Purdue. But in between those they had their biggest win, handing Penn State their sole loss and putting them in company with Oregon State and Mississippi as 2008's giant killers. They finished strong with a 55-0 crushing of Minnesota.
Psychology
Simply put, Iowa turned their year around from a 2007 when they missed the bowl season. South Carolina had a season that doesn't wipe away the memories of last season's collapse. The Gamecocks lost their last two and three of their last five, while the Hawkeyes won five of their last six, going 8-4 after a 3-3 start.Perhaps the most striking is the fact that South Carolina played their best in week one, ending with two of their worst games. Iowa won their last three, including the Penn State win and the off-the-charts demolition of Minnesota. The Hawkeyes should have a major emotional advantage going into the game.
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Final analysis
Neither of these teams has a great offense overall, and both have strong defenses. But while South Carolina struggles to some extent both passing and running the ball, Iowa has a key offensive weapon in Shonn Greene, whom no team has shut down this season. While both teams have struggled to put points on the board at times this season, for the Gamecocks that's been a consistent pattern, while the Hawkeyes have exploded at times, putting up 45 at Indiana, 38 against Wisconsin, and 55 on Minnesota, all three of those in the 2nd half of the year.
Defensively, Iowa is excellent at stopping the run, and South Carolina has been easy to stop on the ground. That makes the air their best bet, but the Carolina quarterbacks are interception-prone as I have mentioned, and the Hawkeyes are among the leaders in interceptions.
This just doesn't look like a good matchup for South Carolina, especially on offense, and psychologically the teams are on different planets. I expect an Iowa rout as the Hawks position themselves to be among the Big Ten leaders next year (particularly if Greene returns) while Spurrier and the Gamecocks must regroup once again.
Prediction: Iowa 31 South Carolina 13
Damn good job with the prediction only 3 pts off!!!! Congrats to the Hawkeyes and if Shonn is back we will win the Big Ten next year and go to the Rose Bowl!!!! Bank on it!!!!
Posted by: J. Evans | January 01, 2009 at 01:37 PM
I hate to burst your bubble, J., but I'm sure you saw Greene's announcement? The Hawks will still be good next year without him, though maybe not Rose Bowl good :)
Posted by: SportsRatings | January 01, 2009 at 08:23 PM