SportsRatings: College Football

Pre-season 120: #91-95 - Navy sinks to #91

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #91 to #95. To see the full list, click here.

91. Navy Midshipmen

2007 Results    Record: 8-5    Bowl: L to Utah, 35-32 (Poinsettia Bowl)    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #68    Success: #57    Combined: #67
Navy coach Paul Johnson left for Georgia Tech, but that's not the problem—it's the raw number of players who have moved on that will make this season a challenge for new head coach Ken Niumatalolo.
Offense (4 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #13    Adj. Rush Yards: #1    Adj. Pass Yards: #120
This Navy travels by land almost exclusively. The Midshipmen had seven players who rushed for more than 450 yards, and four of them are back, including the top two, QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada (952 yds. passing, 8 TDs) and fullback Eric Kettani. But they lose both starting slotbacks, including Reggie Campbell, an all-time great at the position. Softening the blow is senior Shun White, who has averaged almost 10 yards a carry in his career. But the offensive line will be less dominant this year; which is to say, they might not finish #1 in NCAA rushing yards for the first time in four years (though they probably will, once again).
Defense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #112    Adj. Rush Def: #102    Adj. Pass Def: #112
If the offense loses a step, the defense should improve, but that's almost a given considering where they start from. Navy returns two full-time starters on the front three, and several part-time or 2006 starters at linebacker to help offset the loss of leading tackler Irv Spencer. But the biggest improvement looks to be in the secondary, with senior Rashawn King and sophomore Wyatt Middleton leading a very experienced group.
Kicking Game (0.5 RS): Matt Harmon is back at kicker; though he wasn't the full-time kicker, he did about 30% of the work, hence he counts as 1/2 a starter. He was 6 of 10 in field goals, 15 of 15 on extra points. The Mids need a new punter, and finding one to match last year's average (37.3) shouldn't be impossible. Kyle Delahooke
Recruiting: Navy's football recruiting is often near the bottom, and the last two years are no exception. It's more important that recruits fit within the option system, and players work their way up the chain fairly methodically, and stay more often to graduation. Thus, the starting lineups are filled with seniors and juniors, and the occasional sophomore, while freshman play on the junior varsity team.

Navy 2008 schedule & forecast 8/30 Sat vs. Towson 66% W 9/5 Fri @ Ball State 35% L 9/13 Sat @ Duke 41% L 9/20 Sat vs. Rutgers 33% L 9/27 Sat @ Wake Forest 28% L 10/4 Sat @ Air Force 46% L 10/18 Sat vs. Pittsburgh 32% L 10/25 Sat vs. Southern Methodist 61% W 11/1 Sat vs. Temple 52% W 11/15 Sat vs. Notre Dame 47% L 11/25 Tue @ Northern Illinois 53% W 12/6 Sat N Army 66% W Favored: 5-7  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook Last season looked like this: beat Temple, lost to Rutgers, oh well, damn, overtime loss to Ball State...beat Duke, BEAT AIR FORCE!..beat Pitt in overtime! Lost to Wake Forest...lost to Delaware? OMG WE BEAT NOTRE DAME IN OVERTIME FIRST WIN IN 4 DECADES!!!!!...beat North Texas, Beat Northern Illinois..BEAT ARMY! Lost to Utah in Poinsettia Bowl.

This year doesn't look quite as great. Despite playing Notre Dame at home, they're unlikely to replicate last year's feat. And after an almost-gimme against I-A Towson, it gets tough for a couple of months, with four road games and home games against Rutgers and Pitt.

The last five games are also potential wins, and I have Navy getting four of them—assuming they aren't disheartened by how the season is going so far.  SMU and Army are their biggest "guarantees" in this stretch. With all the other win possibilities, they could easily go 6-6 and be back in a bowl game, repeating last season's 8-4 would be a surprise.

92. Toledo Rockets

2007 Results    Record: 5-7    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #99    Success: #94    Combined: #99
Like the majority of MAC teams, Toledo is on the way up this season. But that means that most of their foes are better as well.
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #52    Adj. Rush Yards: #38    Adj. Pass Yards: #61
It's a mixed bag for the Rockets as QB Aaron Opelt returns but RB Jalen Parmele (1,511 yards, 14 TDs) doesn't. Toledo could both run the ball and pass, but the run was more important to their fortunes, taking pressure off Opelt. Backup DaJuane Collins (636 yds, 7 TDs) should fill in adequately given three starters back on the O-line. With top receivers Nick Moore and Stephen Williams (1,900+ yds, 15 TDs combined) returning, I wouldn't say they won't miss a beat but they still should have good production.
Defense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #118    Adj. Rush Def: #119    Adj. Pass Def: #60
Improvement on this side of the ball, especially against the run, is critical for Toledo's success. Again the pass defense number is misleading here, since foes were able to pass their average amount on the Rockets on top of the huge running numbers they were putting up. Toledo returns the majority of their starting talent in each area: on the line, at linebacker, and in the secondary.  Their biggest loss is Grey Hay at LB, but leading tackler Lester Richmond returns at the "Rover" position. The defense is in much better shape than last season, especially since there are essentially NO significant losses beyond the starting 11.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Losing punter Brett Kern is one of the biggest hits this team takes. Kern averaged a whopping 46.1 yards, netting nearly 40 yards. He'll be replaced by a redshirt freshman, and there is certain to be a dropoff. Kicker Alex Steigerwald returns, though, after making at 13 of his field goal attempts last season.
Recruiting: Toledo's last two classes were perhaps the best in the MAC, and three or four redshirt freshman are set to move into the starting lineup, along with punter Bill Claus.

Toledo 2008 schedule & forecast 9/6 Sat @ Arizona 25% L 9/13 Sat @ *Eastern Michigan 48% L 9/20 Sat vs. Fresno State 36% L 9/27 Sat vs. Florida International 66% W 10/4 Sat vs. *Ball State 42% L 10/11 Sat @ Michigan 27% L 10/18 Sat @ *Northern Illinois 53% W 10/25 Sat vs. *Central Michigan 48% L 11/5 Wed @ *Akron 50% L 11/15 Sat @ *Western Michigan 44% L 11/21 Fri vs. *Miami (Ohio) 51% W 11/28 Fri vs. *Bowling Green 52% W Favored: 4-8  Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook The Rockets started 2007 with three losses where they averaged 23 points but the defense yielded 50. Their first win, a 1-point victory over Big 12's Iowa State, was impressive; their 2nd, a 1-point victory over I-AA Liberty, was not. The high-points pattern continued throughout the season, scoring 70 and 52 in beating Northern Illinois and Eastern Michigan, and giving up 43 and 41 in losses to Buffalo and Ball State. With Opelt hurt they managed just 10 against Bowling Green in the season finale.

With a still-explosive offense and improved D, Toledo will be a better team. But so will almost all of their MAC brethren. Almost every MAC game Toledo's involved in is uncertain, especially the game at Akron. Two games at the end of the season are especially important; if Toledo is 2-8 going in, will the season collapse on them? Hopefully they can pick up one or two of the closer contests before then, and go in with bowl eligibility riding on the outcome of the last two games. The MAC is going to be wide open, depending on which way the ball bounces. I don't have Toledo in the top half of the MAC, but they're not far behind the leaders in quality, so just about anything could happen this year.

93. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks

2007 Results    Record: 6-6    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #87    Success: #81    Combined: #87
ULM is only slightly better than they were last year. Does this mean they can beat Auburn like they beat Alabama last season?
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #99    Adj. Rush Yards: #27    Adj. Pass Yards: #101
QB Kinsmon Lancaster returns along with his three favorite targets, and he'll need to up his production to offset the loss of 1,500 yard rusher Calvin Dawson (though Frank Goodin is a solid replacement). The O-line will be somewhat weaker but should be up to the job of defending Lancaster.
Defense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #72    Adj. Rush Def: #64    Adj. Pass Def: #104
The pass defense is what needs the most help. Free safety Greg James leads a group that returns three of five starters (if you count both the "BAN" and "ROV" as secondary in a 4-2-5). Both linebackers return including leading  tackler Cardia Jackson (79, 2 more than James). And the front four should improve as well, returning three of four starters and filling up the remaining slot with JUCO transfers.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Scott Love returns to punt after netting 37.5 yards last season. New kicker Radi Jabour attempted one field goal last year, missed it, and redshirted for the rest of the season. He's known as a kicker with a long range.
Recruiting: Like most Sun Belt teams ULM's recruiting classes don't rank high, but Charlie Weatherbee will get good use out of some of the junior college transfers he picked up this year.

ULM 2008 schedule & forecast 8/30 Sat @ Auburn 19% L 9/6 Sat @ Arkansas 29% L 9/13 Sat vs. Alabama A&M 72% W 9/20 Sat @ Tulane 51% W 10/4 Sat vs. *Louisiana-Lafayette 61% W 10/11 Sat @ *Arkansas State 49% L 10/18 Sat vs. *North Texas 68% W 10/25 Sat vs. *Florida Atlantic 43% L 11/1 Sat vs. *Troy 38% L 11/8 Sat @ *Middle Tennessee 48% L 11/15 Sat @ Mississippi 34% L 11/22 Sat @ *Florida International 58% W Favored: 5-7   Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook Last year's season was made by the Alabama upset. Before that, ULM was 4-6, a comeback in itself after starting 0-4, but another losing season was almost assured.

Instead, the team left Tuscaloosa with a win that would have been called the greatest of the NCAA season if not for all the other craziness that happened last year.

This year their non-conference schedule substitutes Auburn for Alabama, Tulane for Tulsa, and Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama A&M for Clemson, Texas A&M, and Grambling. The end result is about the same, barring any more crazy upsets: the Warhawks will be favored in five games, and considering all the close games, may repeat last year's 6-6 record without having to beat Auburn at all. They could beat Arkansas State on the road, for example, or Middle Tennessee State at home. And actually, Mississippi is the team scheduled on the same week as the Tide were last season, so watch out, Ole Miss.

94. Colorado State Rams

2007 Results    Record: 3-9    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #76    Success: #101    Combined: #77
The Rams were much better last year than their record indicated. Unfortunately, due mainly to losses on defense, they'll be about as good in '08 as they looked in '07.
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #71    Adj. Rush Yards: #42    Adj. Pass Yards: #56
It's hard to add up exactly how many starters the Rams return on offense, due to position switches and part-time starters and '06 returnees. But three things are certain: 1) Neither QB Caleb Hanie nor his three top receivers are back, 2) leading rushers Gartrell Johnson and Kyle Bell are, and 3) the offensive line is positively loaded with experience. This leads me to believe the run will be more central to the Rams success on offense this season. Bell, who ran for over 1,000 yards in 2005, was recently named the starter over Johnson.
Defense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #81    Adj. Rush Def: #76    Adj. Pass Def: #31
The Rams are settled at linebacker: Jeff Horinek, Ricky Brewer, and Jake Potoroff are the team's three leading returning tacklers. After that it gets a bit shaky. Both the front four and secondary have holes without a lot of experience to fill.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Decent kicker Jason Smith (33-33 PATs) returns and might also take over as punter to replace Jimmie Kaylor.
Recruiting: The Rams recruiting ranks in the 90s nationally, and may or may not improve under new head coach Steve Fairchild. Schools like Colorado State have one advantage in that they can pick up some pretty decent players in the summer that the bigger schools have passed on. The Rams got a late summer commit just a few weeks ago from WR Jyrone Hickman.

Colorado State 2008 schedule & forecast 8/30 Sat N Colorado 31% L 9/6 Sat vs. Sacramento State 70% W 9/20 Sat vs. Houston 50% L 9/27 Sat @ California 27% L 10/4 Sat vs. *Nevada-Las Vegas 52% W 10/11 Sat vs. *Texas Christian 38% L 10/18 Sat @ *Utah 22% L 10/25 Sat @ *San Diego State 48% L 11/1 Sat vs. *Brigham Young 30% L 11/8 Sat @ *Air Force 46% L 11/15 Sat vs. *New Mexico 48% L 11/22 Sat @ *Wyoming 41% L Favored: 2-10  Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook After closing 2006 with seven straight losses, the Rams opened 2007 with a six-game skid. But there was never any danger that they were going to go winless. They took Colorado into overtime, were within a touchdown of Cal, led Houston before losing, and had San Diego State dead to rights before the last minute. They went 3-3 over the last six games, winning the final two. Their final record, as well as being winless or having one win most of the season, tainted people's opinion of how good they really were. The Rams were mediocre, not execrable.

But their schedule got tougher, too, or rather the teams on it did. Facing both Utah and BYU this season will be no fun, and Cal is on the docket again. I favor them in two games, though the Houston game is very tight.

The good news is there are several close games they can win. Or lose, too; in fact the only 'certain' win is I-AA Sacramento State. Then there are five games that could go either way easily. I'd say the Rams, even though a lesser team, will match or improve their record in 2008.

95. Iowa State Cyclones

2007 Results    Record: 3-9    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #79    Success: #89    Combined: #79
Iowa State is the 2nd lowest ranked BCS conference team in the rankings. They had their good moments last season with a decent defense, and they return an average amount of starters. But a few key losses, and depletion of the 2nd and 3rd string, consigns them to another losing year.
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #96    Adj. Rush Yards: #84    Adj. Pass Yards: #79
Bret Meyer guided the Cyclones for four straight years, and considering the quality of the squads he was on, he did an admirable job. He developed good accuracy and could run the ball in a pinch. He's gone now, along with top target Todd Blythe, and the team will change. It's an opportunity for the running game, which returns the top three rushers from last year—assuming J.J. Bass is finally allowed to come back. The O-line is loaded and ready with four starters back. Change may be what the Cyclones need to get their offensive production up. But in terms of depth the offense has a big problem, with only 2 of 12 letterman back past the starting 11.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #58    Adj. Rush Def: #41    Adj. Pass Def: #49
The secondary is unquestionably the best part of the defense. Already putting up a good fight by finishing in the top half of the nation in adjusted passing yards allowed, they should be excellent this year with four starters back at safety and corner. The rest of the defense is a mixed bag, losing LBs Alvin Bowen and Jon Banks, and two of the front four. Again, like the offense, the losses in the second string will test the 'Clones defense if injuries become an issue.
Kicking Game (1 RS): The kicking game wasn't a great area for ISU last season, despite beating rival Iowa with field goals only. Mike Brandtner returns at punter, with a nearly 40 yard average last season. Kicker Bret Culbertson was just 10 of 18 on field goals, 5 of 13 if you take away the Iowa game. The new kicker is true freshman Zach Guyer.
Recruiting: Coach Gene Chizik, in his second year at Iowa State, has recruited a couple of very average classes. For the Big 12, that probably won't get the job done, but it should help dig the Cyclones out of their current funk. In addition to punter Guyer, other prominent members of the last two classes include potential starters QB Philip Bates and offensive lineman Kelechi Osemele.

Iowa State 2008 schedule & forecast 8/30 Sat vs. South Dakota State 48% L 9/6 Sat vs. Kent 57% W 9/13 Sat @ Iowa 34% L 9/20 Sat @ Nevada-Las Vegas 45% L 10/4 Sat vs. *Kansas 16% L 10/11 Sat @ *Baylor 45% L 10/18 Sat vs. *Nebraska 38% L 10/25 Sat vs. *Texas A&M 36% L 11/1 Sat @ *Oklahoma State 27% L 11/8 Sat @ *Colorado 28% L 11/15 Sat vs. *Missouri 18% L 11/22 Sat @ *Kansas State 31% L Favored: 1-11  Projected: 4-8

2008 Season Outlook 2007 was an up and down year for the 'Clones. Or rather, a down and up and down and back up year.

The down: losing to Kent State, and worse yet, to Northern Iowa. The up: beating Iowa on a last-second field goal (and barely preventing the touchdown return on the ensuing kickoff).

Down again: Losing six straight, with the Big 12 contests not very competitive (except, shockingly, Oklahoma). And up again: Closing by winning two of three, by beating Kansas State and Colorado. Never mind the 45-7 drubbing KU put on them in the final week.

I don't expect so much drama this season. But wins could be just as hard to come by for the Cyclones. First of all, they picked the wrong Division I-AA team to play, again. Last season UNI was one of the best in the FCS, and South Dakota State ranked #88 last season among all 719 football teams in the season-ending Strength power rating. I'm using last season's numbers for them, but either way this game is no gimme.

The 'Clones get their opportunity for revenge on Kent State, but then Iowa get their chance in Iowa City. After that, it's onto the brutal Big 12, and ISU wastes their home field advantage on Kansas and Missouri, while they travel to play Baylor. They might be able to find wins to match the 4-8 cumulative odds, but I think they may struggle to reach last season's total.

2008 Pre-season 120: #96-100 - Aztecs' lack of offense causes fall

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #96 to #100. To see the full list, click here.

96. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

2007 Results:    Record: 5-7    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #85    Success: #88    Combined: #85
They had to take down the banners advertising the football team in Murfreesboro. Maybe it's for the best, since the offensive line injuries could limit the team's success this year.
Offense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #90   Adj. Rush Yards: #93    Adj. Pass Yards: #89
The offense wasn't great last year but at least it was balanced—between the run and the pass, and between two quarterbacks, Dwight Dasher and Joe Craddock, each of whom threw for over 1,000 yards. Nearly equal stats have led to a quarterback controversy, but Dasher as his name suggests is a better runner—the team's leading rusher, actually—and will play a lot even if he doesn't start. Receivers Patrick Honeycutt and Desmond Gee return, but Gee has moved to running back since DeMarco McNair (9 TDs) is gone. But all this talk of running and passing may be moot; the offensive line is severely depleted. First two starters were lost to graduation/early draft; then Mark Fisher's injury became season-ending; and finally Jamal Lewis was injured in the summer and won't play in '08.
Defense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #77    Adj. Rush Def: #96    Adj. Pass Def: #48
The pass defense was good last year, the rushing defense not-so-good. With four of the front seven back, there should be some improvement, but we'll have to see. Only Alex Suber (59 tackles) is a return starter in the secondary, but a few sometimes-starters fill the gaps and they should still be decent.
Kicking Game (2 RS): The Raiders have two returning kickers, and neither one will start in '08. Dave DeFatta is the starting punter and replaced kicker Matt King, who made only 2 of 7 field goals last year. This season freshman Alan Gendreau is expected to take over as kicker.
Recruiting: The '08 class rated quite a bit higher than the '07 class, but neither set the world on fire. Perhaps this is the effect of scholarships, docked a few years ago for poor grades, being reinstated? I'm not sure. For now, note that the 2008 class includes the new starting kicker, and that redshirt freshman Jake Padrick is slated to start at center.

MTSU 2008 schedule & forecast 8/30 Sat vs. *Troy 37% L 9/6 Sat vs. Maryland 30% L 9/13 Sat @ Kentucky 22% L 9/20 Sat @ *Arkansas State 48% L 9/30 Tue vs. *Florida Atlantic 41% L 10/11 Sat @ *Florida International 57% W 10/18 Sat @ Louisville 38% L 10/25 Sat @ Mississippi State 28% L 11/8 Sat vs. *Louisiana-Monroe 52% W 11/15 Sat @ *Western Kentucky 49% L 11/22 Sat vs. *North Texas 67% W 12/3 Wed @ *Louisiana-Lafayette 53% W Favored: 4-8  Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook Four losses kicked off MTSU's '07 season, including a heartbreaker to Western Kentucky. The next six games hardly could have gone better. They went 5-1 during the stretch, with only a 2-point loss to Virginia. At 5-5, MTSU could have been bowl-bound, but they dropped the last two to Lafayette and Troy.

The problems on the offensive line likely mean that sometimes-explosive (four games over 40 points) offense will be hampered. Thus it's unlikely they'll exceed last season's win total, and more likely fall short. They should still beat FIU and North Texas, and ULM and Lafayette may be close but I have them winning those. They may lose their first five games, though Arkansas State is theirs for the taking should they solve some of their issues in a positive way. And winning at Western Kentucky would give them six wins. Of course the pendulum could swing the other way as well, but I see them winning at least four.

97. Eastern Michigan Eagles

2007 Results:    Record: 4-8    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #103    Success: #99    Combined: #103
The returning starter numbers might be typical, but beyond the first string, 29 of the Eagles' next top 34 players return, equally on both sides of the ball. This depth should help them improve as the season commences.
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #101   Adj. Rush Yards: #74    Adj. Pass Yards: #102
Andy Schmitt is the returning starter at QB, and he's also the Eagles' leading returning rusher at 279 yards and 6 TDs. With Pierre Walker gone, production in the running game will slow, putting more on Schmitt's passing. And he's not bad: 65%, 14 TDs to 6 INTs, but they'll need more than 1,600 yards out of him, though the low number was due to missing games. Three top receivers return with more than 1,000 yards and 9 TDs shared. 4/5 of the line is back, too, leading me to believe this offense can be better than last year's, if a good running back is found.
Defense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #99    Adj. Rush Def: #108    Adj. Pass Def: #63
The rushing defense needed to improve this year, and despite losing two key starters there were high hopes. But projected starter Adam Brockman left the team, so the depth of the team will be tested early. The linebacker corps looks solid—as long as Andre Hatchett returns from academic purgatory. No word yet, as far as I can tell. The strength of the D is the pass defense, and it should be even better with the entire secondary intact.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter Zack Johnson took over placekicking duties as well last year, and may do both chores again. He's a good punter—almost 40 net—but ideally someone else would kick field goals.
Recruiting: The Eagles recruiting classes are typical for the MAC: top 100, not much better. This year's bright spot is JUCO transfer Kyle Pollock, set to start at tight end.

Eastern Michigan 2008 schedule & forecast 8/28 Thu vs. Indiana State 97% W 9/6 Sat @ Michigan State 26% L 9/13 Sat vs. *Toledo 52% W 9/20 Sat @ Maryland 23% L 9/27 Sat vs. *Northern Illinois 58% W 10/4 Sat @ *Bowling Green 43% L 10/11 Sat @ Army 60% W 10/18 Sat vs. *Akron 55% W 10/25 Sat @ *Ball State 33% L 11/1 Sat @ *Western Michigan 42% L 11/22 Sat @ *Temple 43% L 11/28 Fri vs. *Central Michigan 46% L Favored: 5-7  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook Last season was really pretty dismal for the Eagles. Wins over lowly Northern Illinois and I-AA Howard put them at 2-2, which became 2-6 after four straight losses. At least they beat intrastate rivals Western Michigan and Central Michigan.

The early schedule for 2008 is pretty forgiving, even with Michigan State and Maryland on it. The home opener is a gimme, or should be, and Toledo is winnable but not certain by any means. Then Northern Illinois and Army should be victories, and if they beat Akron they could (should?) be 5-3 with four games left.

But all four are likely losses. Looking at them cumulatively, there's no reason they couldn't win one or two of them, but then you have to ask the same question about some of the victories counted above. The Temple game is interesting in that the Eagles will have two weeks off—two idle weeks, that is, so three full weeks to prepare. Adding everything up, there's no reason they can't reach six wins this year, but five is just as likely. If Hatchett doesn't return that could put the defense's improvements in jeopardy, but as far as injuries throughout the season go, the Eagles' depth should keep them more stable than most teams.

98. Memphis Tigers

2007 Results:    Record: 7-6    Bowl: Lost to FAU 44-27 (New Orleans Bowl)    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #104    Success: #82    Combined: #104
An overrated team last year, they won five games by a total of 13 points. They'll be better this year, just maybe not as lucky.
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #81    Adj. Rush Yards: #96    Adj. Pass Yards: #18
The first order of business is finding a quarterback to replace Martin Hankins (61%, 3,220 yards, 25TD), who was the main reason for Memphis' outsized passing attack. Two of the four potential inheritants have dropped out, leaving JUCO x-fer Arkelon Hall and last season's backup Will Hudgens in the mix. Hudgens missed spring playing baseball while Hall battled Matt Malouf, who transferred out along with redshirt freshman Dallas Walker. Though most think Hall will emerge, I think Hudgens has a shot; he keeps the INTs low and has experience starting for the Tigers. Memphis also needs help at running back but returns tons of receivers and should have a solid O-line.
Defense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #109    Adj. Rush Def: #112    Adj. Pass Def: #97
No matter how you look at it, at least three starters return in the Tiger front four, so the rushing defense should (had better) improve. Though leading tackler Jake Kasser is goneat linebacker, two other starters return. The secondary is flush, too, with 4 players who have significant starting experience. The Tiger defense should be much improved, and it's necessary for the team's success.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Both kicker Matt Reagan and punter Brent Sutherland return. Sutherland is unspectacular and the Tiger punt fielding doesn't help his net, while Reagan is inconsistent and limited in range.
Recruiting: The Memphis football team doesn't have the kind of recruiting success that the basketball team does, to say the least; both of the last two classes have ranked just inside the top 100. But key players, like Hall, can often fill in immediately nonetheless.

Memphis 2008 schedule & forecast 8/30 Sat @ Mississippi 32% L 9/6 Sat vs. *Rice 58% W 9/13 Sat @ *Marshall 43% L 9/20 Sat vs. Nicholls State 62% W 9/27 Sat vs. Arkansas State 55% W 10/2 Thu @ *UAB 55% W 10/10 Fri vs. Louisville 44% L 10/18 Sat @ *East Carolina 33% L 10/25 Sat vs. *Southern Mississippi 48% L 11/8 Sat @ *Southern Methodist 52% W 11/22 Sat vs. *Central Florida 41% L 11/29 Sat vs. *Tulane 57% W Favored: 6-6  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook And people say Virginia won a lot of close games? Memphis did, too. Not at first, though—on their way to 1-3 they dropped a 2-point loss to Mississippi and a 4-pointer to Arkansas State. But then their luck turned around.

Starting with a 3-point win over Marshall, the Tigers won six of their next eight games to close out the regular season, including wins over Rice (3 points), Tulane (1), Southern Miss (3) and SMU (3, OT).  At 6-6 they were chosen for the New Orleans Bowl, in which they played valiantly but ultimately lost to Florida Atlantic, 44-27.

Had they gone 2-5 in close games instead of 5-2, no one would be talking about the Tigers as possible CUSA champs. This season, the defense should be good enough to give them a bit of cushion in their wins, and many of their opponents have been downgraded. Still, they probably won't finish any better than they did last year, unless they enjoy the same kind of luck in close games, in which case add a win over Southern Mississippi. Don't think about what happens if their luck changes to the reverse, however—that could get ugly.

99. San Diego State Aztecs

2007 Results:    Record: 4-8    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #88    Success: #85    Combined: #88
An improved defense can't offset a depleted offense for the Aztecs.
Offense (3 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #68    Adj. Rush Yards: #79    Adj. Pass Yards: #31
The losses on offense start with Kevin O'Connell, who threw for 3,000+ yards and 15 TDs and ran for another 11 TDs. Their next leading rusher is gone, and their two top receivers, and starting tight end. Then there's 3/5 of their starting line to replace, and all of it adds up to a nightmare for head coach Chuck Long.
Defense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #84    Adj. Rush Def: #118    Adj. Pass Def: #57
Long will sleep better if he focuses on the defense. Even though last year the unit wasn't very good, it should be much improved. The rushing defense can only get better, unless you believe they'll fall into the bottom two. The three linebackers returning including leading tackler Russell Allen should cover for the front four's miscues well. And the secondary returns three starters as well. The pass D appears to be their strength, but their #57 rating simply means that teams generally achieve their normal passing yardage against the Aztecs. This is in addition to running all over them. So the passing D needs help, too; opponents completed two-thirds of their attempts against the Aztecs last season.
Kicking Game (0 RS): As if the offensive woes weren't enough, kicker Garrett Palmer must be replaced. Excellent punter Michael Hughes is gone, too, though Long has a hotshot freshman lined up to take his place.
Recruiting: Some people wonder why San Diego State can't recruit better, given the location and the nearby talent pool. I don't have the answer, just that Long's last few classes were not stunners. But the aforementioned punter is slated to start, and several freshman and redshirt freshman/sophomores from the last two classes have made their way into the two-deep, some even starting. On offense, unfortunately, this may be because of necessity as much as talent.

SDSU 2008 schedule & forecast 8/30 Sat vs. Cal Poly 52% W 9/6 Sat @ Notre Dame 37% L 9/13 Sat @ San Jose State 51% W 9/27 Sat vs. Idaho 58% W 10/4 Sat @ *Texas Christian 29% L 10/11 Sat vs. *Air Force 51% W 10/18 Sat @ *New Mexico 39% L 10/25 Sat vs. *Colorado State 52% W 11/1 Sat @ *Wyoming 40% L 11/8 Sat @ *Brigham Young 21% L 11/15 Sat vs. *Utah 27% L 11/22 Sat vs. *Nevada-Las Vegas 51% W Favored: 6-6  Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook San Diego State's first four games of '07 went as expected: lose to the three BCS schools, beat the I-AA team. Their next five games were almost all very competitive, and they won three of them, but their final three games were duds and another promising season ended in disappointment.

Facing a rebuilding year after a disappointing season is a tough task. But strangely enough, while the Aztecs are clearly a worse team than last season, there's a pretty good chance they'll have a better record this year—assuming a healthy portion of luck.

Both my projections call for improvement in W's and L's; they'll be favorites in six games this season, though the cumulative odds show them winning five. The reason? Take a look at the W's in the chart, and the percentages next to them. Fully five of the six wins are extremely close. In other words, the Aztecs are a dose of bad luck away from 1-11 next year as well.

First off, don't chalk up Cal Poly in the win column. They were a good team last season and might be even better in '08. The opener will be a good litmus test for both squads. As for Notre Dame, SDSU should have played them last season. Idaho is the only solid win, with San Jose State, Air Force, Colorado State, and UNLV all basically tossups that the gods have granted to the Aztecs, on paper. What really happens will perhaps be affected most by the success or failure of Long's search for the best quarterback to lead the team.

100. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

2007 Results:    Record: 5-7    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #106    Success: #86    Combined: #106
The Bulldogs overachieved last year by winning five games; this year they might be good enough to deserve five wins, if the defense can hold up.
Offense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #111    Adj. Rush Yards: #75    Adj. Pass Yards: #64
QB Zac Champion (come on, you have to chuckle) is gone, but leading rusher Patrick Jackson is back, as well as the top receivers. In fact, the top ten pass catchers all return along with the top five rushers from last season. All the offense needs is someone to hand it off and throw it to them. And voila, somehow Taylor Bennett, who graduated from Georgia Tech last year, shows up eligible to play for Louisiana Tech (because he graduated, he doesn't have to sit a year). He's got what the team needs right now—experience—and despite his shortcomings I think he should be the starter.
Defense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #92    Adj. Rush Def: #55    Adj. Pass Def: #93
Though the offense is loaded, the defense has holes, but luckily there are experienced backups to move into most of them. The biggest concern is the front four, where only one starter returns. Same situation at linebacker, where Quin Harris is the sole returning starting, and potential starter Zach Schreiber has been suspended pending forgery charges. Only the secondary looks truly solid, with three starters back including leading tackler Antonio Baker.
Kicking Game (1 RS): The Bulldogs need a new kicker; their last one wasn't that great so replacing him shouldn't be difficult, in theory. Solid punter Chris Keagle returns after achieving a 37 yard net last season.
Recruiting: Not that head coach Derek Dooley has an easy job recruiting, but it has to be disappointing when the recruits you do land get away. Recently two true freshmen (Jimmie Crawford and Ketaraus Stanton) transferred to junior college, and redshirt freshman Jay Dudley was ruled academically ineligible. Not that any of them was a 4-star recruit, but at a place like Ruston, you never know who your diamond in the rough might be.

Louisiana Tech 2008 schedule & forecast 8/30 Sat vs. Mississippi State 34% L 9/6 Sat @ Kansas 7% L 9/20 Sat vs. SE Louisiana 67% W 10/1 Wed @ *Boise State 25% L 10/11 Sat @ *Hawaii 37% L 10/18 Sat vs. *Idaho 57% W 10/25 Sat @ Army 59% W 11/1 Sat vs. *Fresno State 33% L 11/8 Sat @ *San Jose State 50% L 11/15 Sat vs. *Utah State 56% W 11/22 Sat @ *New Mexico State 56% W 11/29 Sat vs. *Nevada 47% L Favored: 5-7  Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook After beating Central Arkansas, and coming very, very close to beating Hawaii, the Bulldogs went into a three-game skid ending with a 24-0 loss to Mississippi. They barely beat lowly New Mexico State, then played Boise State close the whole game before falling. Three more wins over sorry teams (Utah State, Idaho, and San Jose) followed, along with crushing losses to LSU and Nevada. Ultimately, the Bulldogs can't claim to have beaten any decent opponents in '07—at least, none with a winning record—yet they almost qualified for a bowl game.

Despite adding Kansas to the schedule and playing Boise and Hawaii back-to-back, things look better for 2008. After almost certainly going 1-4, Tech has six winnable games in the final seven, and should be fairly strongly favored to win five this year. A sixth, San Jose State, is as much of a tossup as you can get, but tie goes to the home team. Without improving very much—and some would say, having a rebuilding year—Tech could be knocking on the door of a bowl game again this season.

2008 Pre-season 120: #101-105 - Syracuse is at the bottom of the BCS

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #101 to #105. To see the full list, click here.

101. Arkansas State Red Wolves

2007 Results    Record: 5-7    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #93    Success: #90    Combined: #93
The Wolves (formerly the Indians) return a lot of key people, especially on offense, but overall losses suggest a slightly lesser team this season. A friendlier schedule could mean a better record, though.
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #103    Adj. Rush Yards: #55    Adj. Pass Yards: #92
Arkansas State was better on the ground than through the air last season, mostly because of junior Reggie Arnold (1,060 yards, 9 TDs) and the fact that QB Corey Leonard is a strong runner (over 500 yards net) and mediocre passer (52%, 16TD, 15 INT). Still, the dual threat makes him dangerous, and many of his best receivers return, though they lose #1 Levi Dejohnette. The O-line will be an issue, replacing four starters, and how it recovers will determine a lot of the offense's direction. And with 2nd string RB Preston Brown suspended for '08, Arnold's full recovery from shoulder surgery is crucial.
Defense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #76    Adj. Rush Def: #71    Adj. Pass Def: #20
The defense was the bright spot from last year, especially the pass defense. Unfortunately all four starters in the secondary are gone, meaning the top 25 level adjusted pass yardage yielded is going to worsen. The rushing defense should improve, as five of the seven linemen return, and if they can increase the pressure they can compensate for the secondary until it gets up to speed. Overall four of the top five tacklers are gone but Ben Owens returns at linebacker.
Kicking Game (2 RS): The Wolves are pretty well set at punter and kicker, with both starters returning, having delivered decent though unspectacular numbers last season. Punter Brett Shrable averaged over 40 yards, and Josh Arauco made all his XP attempts.
Recruiting: Arkansas State's '07 class ranked a respectable 81st but the '08 class fell to 109th. Though their average recruit in '08 is better, they didn't get the few 3- and 4-star players they got in '07. The handful of freshmen listed in the 2-deep are redshirts from the '07 class.

Arkansas St 2008 schedule & forecast 8/30 Sat @ Texas A&M 27% L 9/6 Sat vs. Texas Southern 95% W 9/13 Sat vs. Southern Mississippi 46% L 9/20 Sat vs. *Middle Tennessee 51% W 9/27 Sat @ Memphis 45% L 10/11 Sat vs. *Louisiana-Monroe 51% W 10/18 Sat @ *Louisiana-Lafayette 52% W 11/1 Sat @ Alabama 18% L 11/8 Sat @ *Florida International 56% W 11/22 Sat vs. *Florida Atlantic 40% L 11/29 Sat @ *North Texas 58% W 12/6 Sat @ *Troy 28% L Favored: 6-6  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook Last season had its ups and downs, for certain, with wins following losses and vice versa. They gave Texas a scare in the opener before falling 21-13. They beat SMU and lost to Tennesse as expected, then had an incredible comeback to beat Memphis, followed by a loss where ULM made the comeback. After beating Louisiana-Lafayette they had their only 2-game skid to Middle Tennessee and Troy by a combined 51-7. In their last four, they squeeked past lowly FIU and North Texas, and lost to FAU and Southern Miss. 

The '08 schedule essentially trades SMU for Texas Southern, granting ASU an almost-guaranteed win. But after the Middle Tennessee game the Wolves only have two games out of eight at home. This might make it hard to win the close contests, which they must do to reach six wins.

102. Texas El-Paso Miners

2007 Results    Record: 4-8    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #100    Success: #93    Combined: #100
QB Trevor Vittatoe returns for the Miners, but many of his skilled teammates from last year are gone; the defense should improve, leaving the Miners not significantly better or worse than they were last season.
Offense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #66    Adj. Rush Yards: #87    Adj. Pass Yards: #36
Vittatoe's 3,000+ yards and, more importantly, his 25-7 TD/INT ratio will insure that UTEP still has a passing game despite losing four top receivers. #1 target Jeff Moturi is back, though, and three starters return on the line. But last year the running game took pressure off Vittatoe, and the Miners lose the top backs including Marcus Thomas (1,166 yds. 16 TDs).
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #114    Adj. Rush Def: #115    Adj. Pass Def: #111
The defense couldn't stop the run, the pass, or scoring last season, and things got worse with leading tackler Braxton Amy tearing his ACL in the spring. This left the linebacking corps with only one starter back in the new 3-3-5 scheme where Amy was to play a hybrid LB/safety. But overall the rushing defense should be better, with all three front lineman returning, and the pass D could benefit from several returnees as well.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Excellent kicker Jose Martinez has both accuracy and distance, hitting 17 of 20 last year. Punter Kyle Peterson averaged 40+ with no blocks, which is good enough.
Recruiting: Not great, not atrocious—the last two classes have been in the top 100 but not much higher. There aren't many freshman, redshirt or otherwise, in the 2-deep.

UTEP 2008 schedule & forecast 8/28 Thu @ Buffalo 41% L 9/6 Sat vs. Texas 23% L 9/20 Sat vs. New Mexico State 62% W 9/27 Sat vs. *Central Florida 40% L 10/4 Sat @ *Southern Mississippi 39% L 10/11 Sat vs. *Tulane 55% W 10/18 Sat @ *Tulsa 31% L 11/1 Sat vs. *Rice 57% W 11/8 Sat @ Louisiana-Lafayette 52% W 11/15 Sat vs. *Southern Methodist 58% W 11/22 Sat @ *Houston 41% L 11/29 Sat @ *East Carolina 32% L Favored: 5-7  Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook UTEP was lucky to get four wins last season. They beat New Mexico and Tulsa by a total of 5 points, beat SMU in overtime, and Div I-A Texas Southern (by 40). After starting 4-2, they lost six straight to close the season. The first three were very tight losses: East Carolina in overtime, Houston by 3, Rice by 8. Their last three weren't as competitive.

The best chances for wins this season come against New Mexico State, SMU, Rice, and Tulane at home. The road game at Lafayette should be a win, too, giving them five for the season. The problem is, there's not much room for error. None of the seven losses looks particularly appealing for an upset. Though the Wolves could beat Buffalo,  Houston, or Southern Miss on the road, or UCF at home, I wouldn't count on it and after that the odds get worse.

With few gimme games, I expect UTEP to reach the 5-7 mark projected, or even fall a game short and match last year's record. The defense would need to improve greatly under the new scheme for the Miners to reach bowl eligibility this season.

103. Ohio Bobcats

2007 Results    Record: 6-6    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #91    Success: #97    Combined: #91
Ohio returns a respectable number of starters and lots of experience overall, but several key losses drop them a level at a time when the rest of the MAC is loaded.
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #72    Adj. Rush Yards: #98    Adj. Pass Yards: #69
The Bobcats problem isn't that they lose last year's starting QB Brad Bower; backup Theo Scott performed well, with a better TD/INT ratio and can run the ball to boot. No, the main problem is the loss of RB Kalvin McRae (1,434 yards) who had more touchdowns (19) than all of Ohio's QB threw for in '07. Unless Chris Garrett can fill McRae's shoes, a decrease in the ground game will inevitably hurt the passing game, which has good potential with solid tight ends Andrew Mooney and David Carter returning.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #105    Adj. Rush Def: #109    Adj. Pass Def: #85
The D needs help across the board, and with added experience this year they might have it. The biggest problem is the rushing D, and with two starters on the line, and two of three linebackers, this should improve. Three of four starters return in the secondary. But beyond the starting lineup, Ohio has a wealth of returning backups ready to fill in, losing just four of 32 non-starters on defense.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Matt Schulte returns; he averaged only 37.6 per punt, but netted a decent 35.6. The Bobcats will miss kicker Michael Braunstein, who made every extra point and 20/24 FG last season.
Recruiting: Frank Solich hasn't transformed Ohio into a recruiting powerhouse. Their last two classes are barely in the top 100, which might work out ok in the MAC. This season's big catch might be JUCO transfer Boo Jackson, who is pressing Scott for the starting QB job after a great spring game.

Ohio 2008 schedule & forecast 8/30 Sat @ Wyoming 39% L 9/6 Sat @ Ohio State 0% L 9/13 Sat vs. *Central Michigan 45% L 9/20 Sat @ Northwestern 36% L 9/27 Sat vs. Virginia Military 87% W 10/4 Sat @ *Western Michigan 40% L 10/11 Sat @ *Kent State 47% L 10/21 Tue @ *Temple 41% L 10/28 Tue vs. *Buffalo 48% L 11/8 Sat vs. *Bowling Green 48% L 11/22 Sat vs. *Akron 54% W 11/28 Fri @ *Miami (Ohio) 41% L Favored: 2-10   Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook Last year's 6-6 record might imply a team in the middle of the college football I-A pack, but looks can be deceiving. The Bobcats' schedule included non-conference wins over I-AA Gardner-Webb and weak LA-Lafayette. They lost their next four, but rebounded with wins over Eastern Michigan, Bowling Green, Temple, and Miami Ohio. None of their wins was really dominant, and their biggest loss margin was 21—strangely, to both Virginia Tech and Buffalo.

The problem in 2008 can be summed up in one acronym: MAC. While Ohio may be slipping this season, the rest of the conference is returning starters by the fistfull, and most of the teams have improved immensely. This leaves conference wins few and far between. It doesn't help that Ohio State is back on the schedule, either.

After the almost certain OSU loss and VMI win, Ohio faces a stretch of tossup games, most of which they should probably fall just short in. But the cumulative uncertainty of these games adds up to a 5-7 season. With luck they can reach last year's total, but bad luck would put them 2-10 or worse. With almost every game up for grabs, Ohio needs to establish a quarterback and running back to have any hope of improving on last season.

104. Akron Zips

2007 Results    Record: 4-8    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #102    Success: #104    Combined: #102
An offense that will be lucky to improve and a shaky defense puts Akron about where they were last year: near the bottom of the MAC, unless a series of internal trades between the offense and defense can pay big dividends.
Offense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #105    Adj. Rush Yards: #103    Adj. Pass Yards: #96
Chris Jacquemain and Carlton Jackson combined for just over 2,000 passing yards last season, half of which went to Jabari Arthur, who had 10 TD receptions. Jacquemain (11 TDs, 10 INTs) is back, but Arthur is not. This is where the Zips problems start. To cover the loss, coach JD Brookhart moved safety Andre Jones to wide receiver; to cover that loss, leading rusher Bryan Williams (791 yards) moved to safety. Confused yet? Hopefully the players aren't. The offensive line remains mostly intact and should help ease the major transitions the offense will be going through.
Defense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #95    Adj. Rush Def: #110    Adj. Pass Def: #79
The front six (or seven) look to be about the same overall as last season, but the interesting area is the secondary, of course, for the reasons stated above. Jones was the team's second leading tackler, but in the spring game Williams had 11 tackles and a sack. No other starters return for the secondary.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Both kickers return, and though punter John Stec is hardly an all-star he gets the job done. Kicker Igor Iveljic made 15 of 18 field goals last season, so the kicking game is one area of needed stability for the Zips.
Recruiting: Akron's recruiting isn't bad for a lower-level MAC team, but that's not what they aspire to be. Both classes rank 75th-80th in the country, and a handful of frosh are listed in the 2nd string. But transfers from BCS schools have been a good source for the Zips lately, garnering potential starting RB Andrew Johnson from Miami FL, starting nose tackle Ryan Bain from Iowa, and WR Jeremy Bruce from West Virginia.

Akron 2008 schedule & forecast 8/30 Sat @ Wisconsin 23% L 9/6 Sat @ Syracuse 47% L 9/13 Sat vs. *Ball State 39% L 9/20 Sat @ Army 59% W 9/27 Sat vs. Cincinnati 28% L 10/4 Sat @ *Kent State 47% L 10/11 Sat vs. *Bowling Green 48% L 10/18 Sat @ *Eastern Michigan 45% L 11/5 Wed vs. *Toledo 50% W 11/13 Thu vs. *Buffalo 48% L 11/22 Sat @ *Ohio 46% L 11/28 Fri @ *Temple 41% L Favored: 2-10  Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook '07 was a pretty pedestrian year for the Zips. After beating Army, Kent State, and Western Michigan in unimpressively close games, Akron stood 3-3, the losses coming to BCS schools. They finished 1-5, however, losing close games to Temple, Miami Ohio (7-0 final) and Central Michigan.

This season, with a much tougher MAC conference, looks daunting; the Zips might finish with just two wins, and one of those is contingent on a tossup contest against Toledo. On the bright side, almost all of the games on the schedule are winnable: Syracuse and Kent State would be wins if at home, and Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan, Buffalo, and Ohio are definite possibilities too.

The bottom line is that Akron is going to face many close games this season. If their position-shifting scheme works out and the Zips are bowl eligible, JD Brookhart will look like a coaching genius.

105. Syracuse Orange

2007 Results    Record: 2-10    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #98    Success: #100    Combined: #98
It's rare to see a BCS team outside the top 100 teams in the nation, but Syracuse came really close last year, and given the losses from last season it looks like the Orangemen will fall into the bottom 20.
Offense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #97    Adj. Rush Yards: #116    Adj. Pass Yards: #53
Quarterback Andrew Robinson had a few atrocious games last year—the shutout against Iowa comes to mind—but he finished with over 50% completions, over 2,000 yards, and 13TDs to 7 INTs. Reserve Cameron Dantley did similarly, starting when Robinson was injured, and has excelled in the spring. The problem is that Mike Williams—the team's leading receiver with 10 TDs—is academically ineligible. That leaves the Orange QBs without their top four targets. On the bright side, this might be the perfect time to switch to a new run-based offense, the kind that ex-Minnesota coordinator Mitch Browning is implementing. The running game ranked 116th last year and looked terrible in the spring game, though '06 standout Deleon Carter hadn't returned yet.
Defense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #94    Adj. Rush Def: #90    Adj. Pass Def: #110
The defense's losses go beyond the starters like safety Joe Fields and defensive end Jameel McClain. Though backups will fill some holes adequately, the defense loses a lot of lettermen from last season. If injuries take hold, this unit could actually get worse than last season.
Kicking Game (2 RS): The one bright spot for the Orange is the kicking game, with punter Rob Long averaging 41.9 yards on a whopping 75 attempts. Kicker Patrick Shadle is good enough, especially for this team, hitting 10 of 14 field goals and 23 of 24 extra points.
Recruiting: Coach Greg Robinson has been on the "hot seat" for a while now. His downfall hasn't been recruiting; both classes from the last two years rank (just barely) in the top 50. While most BCS schools would say that's barely adequate, a team struggle to stay in the top 100 schools should be thankful for those numbers. Put another way though: they're recruiting at about the same level as Kansas.

Syracuse 2008 schedule & forecast 8/30 Sat @ Northwestern 36% L 9/6 Sat vs. Akron 53% W 9/13 Sat vs. Penn State 22% L 9/20 Sat vs. Northeastern 59% W 9/27 Sat vs. *Pittsburgh 28% L 10/11 Sat @ *West Virginia 8% L 10/18 Sat @ *South Florida 5% L 11/1 Sat vs. *Louisville 42% L 11/8 Sat @ *Rutgers 22% L 11/15 Sat vs. *Connecticut 26% L 11/22 Sat @ Notre Dame 34% L 11/29 Sat @ *Cincinnati 20% L Favored: 2-10  Projected: 4-8

2008 Season Outlook Syracuse started the 2007 campaign by being taken apart by Washington, shut out by Iowa in a dismal performance, and made it 0-3 vs. Illinois, losing each game by 21+.

Then, somehow, inexplicably, the Orange upset Louisville in one of college football's biggest ever upsets. We now know the Cards were overrated, but the fact that the Orange were such huge underdogs shows how far the program has fallen.

That would turn out to be the season's highlight, of course, as Syracuse went 1-7 from that point on, beating lowly Buffalo but no more Big East teams.

This season they scheduled I-AA Northeastern as part of a four-game home stretch, during which they might get all of their wins. The Akron game is a tossup, Northeastern should be a win, but after that? Expect losses, and not very close ones. They might be able to beat Louisville again this year, at home, but doing better than 3-9 will be tough. The cumulative projection just barely calls for a fourth win. More than likely, though, Syracuse will match last year's record and have a new head coach in 2009.

2008 Pre-season 120: #106-110 - Western Kentucky ready for I-A challenge

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #106 to #110. To see the full list, click here.

106. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

2007 Results    Record: 7-5    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #96    Success: #91    Combined: #96
The Hilltoppers have been in limbo a couple of years. No longer an FCS (Div I-AA) team, not yet a FBS (Div I-A) school either. But this season they play ten I-A teams and only two I-AA teams, which to me makes them every bit a I-A team. But consequently, they won't likely see seven wins in 2008.
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #114    Adj. Rush Yards: #23    Adj. Pass Yards: #118
Western Kentucky is a ground team. Leading rusher Tyrell Hayden rushed for more yards (1,134) than either of WK's top quarterbacks, KJ Black and David Wolke, passed for. Black and Wolke even added nearly 700 net rushing yards into the mix, while throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. This explains why the running game ranks highly and the passing game doesn't. Luckily in addition to the QBs, the three top ground-gainers are back this season. Top receiver Curtis Hamilton is gone, but the next best three return as starters, so the passing game could improve as well. The line returns two starters plus redshirt Greg Ryan (who started two previous years). Whoever starts at QB—they'll probably use both a lot in any case—will have to limit the turnovers to realize this offense's potential for improvement.
Defense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #68    Adj. Rush Def: #83    Adj. Pass Def: #45
The defense was respectable last season, especially against the pass. The Hilltoppers' 3-4 returns two starters on the line, two linebackers, and half of the secondary; most of the backups on defense return, too, so their play should be as good as '07 and could be better against the run. But they will miss linebacker Andre Lewis, by far their leading tackler last season.
Kicking Game (1 RS): 3-year starter Chris James has to be replaced at kicker, but reliable punter Jeremy Moore returns after averaging 41.7 yards last season.
Recruiting: Both of the Hilltoppers' recruiting classes the last two years have been ranked dead last in I-A. I believe because they are transitioning from Division I-AA, restrictions are still in place on numbers of scholarships. Starting in 2009 any restrictions should be gone, and their recruiting classes can be fairly judged against other teams.

Western Kentucky 2008 schedule & forecast 8/30 Sat @ Indiana 33% L 9/6 Sat @ Eastern Kentucky 51% W 9/13 Sat @ Alabama 17% L 9/20 Sat vs. Murray State 84% W 9/27 Sat @ Kentucky 20% L 10/4 Sat @ Virginia Tech 22% L 10/11 Sat vs. Ball State 38% L 10/18 Sat vs. *Florida Atlantic 39% L 11/1 Sat vs. *North Texas 64% W 11/8 Sat @ *Troy 27% L 11/15 Sat vs. *Middle Tennessee St. 50% W 12/6 Sat @ *Florida International 55% W Favored: 5-7 Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook The Hilltoppers played six I-A teams in '07; they play ten in '08. They played one BCS team in '07; the count will be four this season. Worse: only one of their wins last season was over a I-A squad.

After getting pasted 49-3 at Florida, WKU turned around in a big way, posting an 87-0 win over West Virginia Tech (NAIA). They beat I-AA rival Eastern Kentucky, and I-A Middle Tennessee before losing to Bowling Green (of Ohio—WKU is in Bowling Green, Kentucky) and Ball State. They closed with four I-AA wins and two I-A losses. The loss at North Texas, one of I-A's worst, was particularly disappointing, as even FIU defeated the Mean Green last year. But they finished with a winning record, even if skewed.

This year will be much tougher, of course. First off, only one of the I-AA games is a gimme: the rivalry game at Eastern Kentucky could be tough, though the Hilltoppers should win as the Colonels will be weaker than last year's squad (and those are the stats I'm using). Murray State shouldn't provide too much resistance in Bowling Green. After that, the wins become harder to find among the I-A foes. They get North Texas at home this year, and play at Florida International. Middle Tennessee at home is a 50/50 proposition, but I'll give WKU the overtime win. That leaves them a respectable 5-7. Fall short in any of those tossup games and they'll have to pick up a win somewhere else—and it probably won't come at Alabama, Kentucky, Virginia Tech or Indiana.

107. Kent State Golden Flashes

2007 Results    Record: 3-9    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #111    Success: #111    Combined: #111
They might not become a world-beater, but Kent State should improve at least enough to pull itself out of the bottom 10 in the nation where they resided last season.
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #110    Adj. Rush Yards: #40    Adj. Pass Yards: #112
Back Eugene Jarvis (1,669 yards, 10 TDs) is the key return for this offense, though QB Julian Edelman can run the ball, too. It's his passing that leaves a bit to be desired oftentimes. If the Flashes desire to improve the passing game, all the keys are there: four returning quarterbacks, the top three receivers (of which Jarvis is one), and an O-line that returns three starters (note: now just two, with center Josh Perry gone). But something tells me they'll mostly stick to their strength, which is Jarvis, who could top 2,000 yards if he stays healthy.
Defense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #100    Adj. Rush Def: #97    Adj. Pass Def: #92
Unlike the offense, the D didn't excel in any areas last year; they were poor across the board. Hope for improvement starts with all three linebackers returning, including Derek Burrell (112 tackles), to form a defensive core that helps stop the run and pressure the pass. The front four returns three starters, so the rushing D numbers should improve, but the secondary loses two starters including Jack Williams. Still, the defense overall retains all but two non-starters, so there's experience everywhere to fill the gaps.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Nate Reed returns as kicker. He had an unusual '07 season, hitting 5 of 6 outside the 40, but missing two inside the 30 as well as five extra points. Punter Jake Kilroy averaged only 36.6 last season but didn't have any blocked. The Flashes could use more consistency at both positions, and freshman Matt Rinehart came out of spring practice as the top punter for '08.
Recruiting: Kent State, like most MAC teams, isn't known for its recruiting. But sometimes schools like this get the most out of what they have, and the Golden Flashes are using their freshmen when needed. In addition to the aforementioned Rinehart, there are four freshmen (true or red) listed on the two-deep on the offensive line. Look for Kent State to have a dominant O-line two or three years?

Kent State 2008 schedule & forecast 8/30 Sat vs. Boston College 34% L 9/6 Sat @ Iowa State 42% L 9/13 Sat vs. Delaware State 66% W 9/20 Sat @ Louisiana-Lafayette 50% W 9/27 Sat @ *Ball State 30% L 10/4 Sat vs. *Akron 52% W 10/11 Sat vs. *Ohio 52% W 10/25 Sat @ *Miami (Ohio) 39% L 11/1 Sat @ *Bowling Green St. 40% L 11/12 Wed vs. *Temple 47% L 11/18 Tue vs. *Northern Illinois 55% W 11/28 Fri @ *Buffalo 40% L Favored: 5-7 Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook Kent State started the 2007 season 3-2, beating Iowa State in addition to Ohio and I-AA Delaware State. They lost to Akron by 7 which turned out to be a harbinger. They would lose three more games by a touchdown including an overtime loss at Buffalo that completed a seven-game losing streak to close the season.

Most of their games were close, save those against stronger BCS teams like Kentucky and Ohio State. This year they should have a lot of close games, too, but should win more of them. They start in Cleveland against BC and travel to Iowa State again for a tough rematch. After that, though, I favor them in three of the next four, though none is a sure thing. The last five games are tough, too, but even the four they ought to lose aren't written in stone. Basically the Flashes season could go any direction. They have to win the close ones this year and they'll have a much-improved year.

108. Utah State Aggies

2007 Results    Record: 2-10    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #110    Success: #114    Combined: #110
A worse offense but a much better defense may add up to a net slight improvement for Utah State.
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #108    Adj. Rush Yards: #91    Adj. Pass Yards: #103
Utah State loses its key player from last season, quarterback Leon Jackson, who was not prolific but completed 65% of his passes and had only 4 INTs. He was also the team's second leading net rusher and ran for 6 TDs. Also hurting the passing game is the loss of top receiver Kevin Robinson, though TE Rob Myers is back. Leading rusher Derrvin Speight (504 yds) returns as does Curtis Marsh (injured last year), so if the running game becomes more of a focus this unit can adjust.
Defense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #102    Adj. Rush Def: #107    Adj. Pass Def: #50
Other than two losses on the D-line—covered well by the fact that they return almost the entire 2nd string—there isn't much bad news for the defense. Their best linebackers, Jake Hutton and Paul Igboeli, are back, and the secondary returns an incredible five starters at the four positions. Look for a much improved rushing defense, and for an already decent pass defense to excel.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Did we mention that Leon Jackson was the key player on this team? He was also the punter, and a pretty good one, too, averaging 41.3 yards. Kicker Peter Caldwell will probably take over for Jackson and do a decent job. As a kicker he was erratic on field goals last year but perfect on extra points.
Recruiting: The numbers over the last few years don't bode well for head coach Brent Guy. Now in his fourth year, his last two classes ranked near the bottom 10 in Division I-A. Though he's gotten a big vote of confidence from his A.D., a breakthrough year would really help for the future. The players must be good enough, though; the offense, in particular, is filled with several redshirt freshman playing second string this season.

Utah State 2008 schedule & forecast 8/30 Sat @ Nevada-Las Vegas 42% L 9/6 Sat @ Oregon 10% L 9/13 Sat vs. Utah 26% L 9/20 Sat vs. *Idaho 56% W 10/3 Fri vs. Brigham Young 26% L 10/11 Sat @ *San Jose State 49% L 10/18 Sat @ *Nevada 39% L 10/25 Sat vs. *Fresno State 31% L 11/1 Sat vs. *Hawaii 43% L 11/8 Sat @ *Boise State 24% L 11/15 Sat @ *Louisiana Tech 45% L 11/29 Sat vs. *New Mexico State 61% W Favored: 2-10  Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook If you're going to go 2-10, the Aggies did it right last year: they won their final two games. This is great for the following season's morale, though the 10-game losing streak makes for a painful season. Add the fact that the defense was giving up so many points (30+ eight times) that the offense must have felt futile. The D finally held in their final two games, though, allowing wins over New Mexico State and Idaho—both on the road.

Unfortunately for the Aggies, their momentum may be short-lived. Their non-conference schedule includes not only Pac-10 power Oregon, but also the two best teams in the Mountain West, BYU and of course, Utah. Thus, I have them favored only at home against New Mexico State and Idaho—the same two teams they beat on the road last year. Some of the other projections are close; San Jose State is a tossup, and a few others are winnable. Their cumulative win-percentage projection adds up to just over 4.5 wins, so a 5-7 season is not out of the question.

109. Tulane Green Wave

2007 Results    Record: 4-8    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #108    Success: #105    Combined: #108
The bottom line for Tulane is the loss of Matt Forte. That and a porous pass defense adds up to another losing season in '08.
Offense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #113    Adj. Rush Yards: #52    Adj. Pass Yards: #93
For a team with a 2,000 yard rusher, Tulane didn't score that much. Without a decent passing attack to support him, Matt Forte piled up the yards (2,127 of them) against stacked defenses, scored whenever he could (23 times), and watched as the team's three QBs threw for 10 TDs and 12 INTs while barely matching Forte's yardage total. Now the three QBs return to battle for the starting spot in Bob Toledo's triple option scheme; the best receivers return including Jeremy Williams, and the O-line should be solid, but no proven rushing threat exists to take pressure off the pass, though Andre Anderson (91 yards last year) will try. Whoever wins the starting QB spot is going to have a load on his shoulders, for he may end up having to carry the entire offense, they way Forte did last season.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #97    Adj. Rush Def: #62    Adj. Pass Def: #114
The linebacking corps returns intact, anchored by Evan Lee. The front four loses two starters but the rushing defense should still be decent. Pressuring the opposing QB, however, is something they need to work on, since the secondary has holes to fill itself. Joe Goosby (91 tackles) is gone, and the returners didn't exactly inspire confidence last season. New defensive coordinator O'Neill Gilbert has a challenge ahead.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Kicker Ross Thevenot returns, and will continue to back up Darren deRochemont at punter.
Recruiting: Bob Toledo is in his second year as coach, and he followed the Hurricane Katrina disaster, so it's unclear if there are any recruiting trends since his arrival. The '07 class was not highly rated—near the bottom 10—while the '08 class was an improvement but not a breakthrough. The next few years will show whether he'll be able to bring top talent to Tulane.

Tulane 2008 schedule & forecast 9/6 Sat @ Alabama 17% L 9/13 Sat vs. *East Carolina 37% L 9/20 Sat vs. Louisiana-Monroe 49% L 9/27 Sat vs. *Southern Methodist 56% W 10/4 Sat vs. Army 64% W 10/11 Sat @ *Texas-El Paso 45% L 10/25 Sat vs. *Rice 55% W 11/1 Sat @ Louisiana State 14% L 11/8 Sat @ *Houston 39% L 11/15 Sat vs. *Alabama-Birmingham 59% W 11/22 Sat @ *Tulsa 30% L 11/29 Sat @ *Memphis 43% L Favored: 4-8  Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook In '07 the Wave beat only I-AA Southeast Louisiana and SMU in overtime in its first nine games. Along the way they got clobbered by Mississippi State, Houston,  LSU, and Tulsa, and lost close ones to Army, UAB, and Memphis. Then they had their strongest wins, over UTEP and Rice, before dropping the final to East Carolina.

The schedule isn't very different this year; some of the locations have changed of course, but non-conference, there's still LSU and Army; Alabama replaces Mississippi State; and ULM is a step up from SE LA St. Still I see four wins for the team; they should beat SMU again and Rice again, and beat Army and UAB at home this time. ULM is a tossup that could put them at 5-7. The Wave could finish with a better record in '08 without really improving, since '07's close games could have put it at 7-5 pretty easily. This year they won't be as competitive in the losses, but there might be fewer of them overall. Everything depends, of course, on how the offense responds to life without Matt Forte.

110. San Jose State Spartans

2007 Results    Record: 5-7    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #105    Success: #84    Combined: #105
The Spartans were overachievers last season, almost reaching bowl eligibility despite not being very good. I see them declining a bit in '08, so a bowl birth this year is doubtful.
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #117    Adj. Rush Yards: #114    Adj. Pass Yards: #37
San Jose State lived by the pass last season, and losing 3,000 yard passed Adam Tafralis (18TDs, 11 INT) is going to hurt. The team's best receivers, led by Kevin Jurovich, return, so if a good QB can be found the damage can be mitigated. Head coach Dick Tomey has stated that Myles Eden, who saw very limited action last year, is the current frontrunner. The running game, almost non-existent last year, loses top back Jacob French, but gains Yonus Davis, who is eligible for a sixth year and ran for over 1,000 yards in 2006.  Three starters return on the line—even Justin Paysinger, who had a "career-ending" back injury, is playing again—so depending on how the QB situation works out, look for the Spartans to run the ball more this year, though Tomey would like to use the spread with his strong receiver corps.
Defense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #79    Adj. Rush Def: #91    Adj. Pass Def: #26
Just as the running game was the offense's weakness, so too is stopping the run the D's problem. The front four should be much better this season, with three starters back and USC transfer Jeff Schweiger moving into the lineup. There are some losses in the secondary, but with Chris Owens back and Oregon State transfer Coye Francies coming in, the pass D should remain solid.
Kicking Game (1 RS): The Spartans need a new punter, and better results from returning kicker Jared Strubeck. Last season's punter Waylor Prather averaged 40 yards a kick but netted only 30, so the punt fielding team needs work, too. Strubeck hit only 10 of 20 FGs last year due to a slump, though he was perfect on extra points; he kicked only two touchbacks all year. The kicking game is a definite weakness for the Spartans.
Recruiting: Tomey's in his fourth year, so if recruiting is going to improve under him it should have shown it by now. Instead, the '08 class was one of the lowest rated in the nation. The '07 class was near the top 100, which isn't great, but shows that things may not be going in the right direction. To pick up the slack  Tomey hauled in transferring Pac-10 players, such as the aforementioned players from USC and Oregon State in addition to former Cal QB Kyle Reed. But at some point recruiting has to get better if the Spartans are going to succeed long term.

San Jose State 2008 schedule & forecast 8/30 Sat vs. California-Davis 59% W 9/6 Sat @ Nebraska 26% L 9/13 Sat vs. San Diego State 49% L 9/20 Sat @ Stanford 28% L 9/27 Sat @ *Hawaii 34% L 10/11 Sat vs. *Utah State 52% W 10/18 Sat @ *New Mexico State 52% W 10/24 Fri vs. *Boise State 29% L 11/1 Sat @ *Idaho 47% L 11/8 Sat vs. *Louisiana Tech 50% W 11/15 Sat @ *Nevada 36% L 11/21 Fri vs. *Fresno State 29% L Favored: 4-8  Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook SJSU opened '07 with three losses to BCS teams by an embarrassing 116-17 total. They then won tight contests over two of the worst teams in I-A (Utah State, Idaho), and I-AA Cal Poly. Three of the best WAC teams beat them, though they took Hawaii to overtime. They closed with their only dominant win, 51-17 over New Mexico State, a close loss to Louisiana Tech, and another close win over Nevada. So basically, they beat two teams with that had a pulse last year, and that's counting N.M.St. as one of them.

This season looks to be chock full of close games. San Diego State, Utah State, at New Mexico State, at Idaho, and Louisiana Tech are all tossups. I credit them with 3 of the 5 in the 4-8 result, and adding everything up, the odds favor them matching last year's tally. The only solid win on the schedule is UC Davis at home, and there are six games in which the Spartans will be distinct underdogs.

So it's a fine line between 6-6 bowl eligibility and a disastrous 1-11 effort. I don't think they'll sink to the latter, but without finding a solid quarterback to run their offense, the former will be out of reach.

College Football 2008 Pre-season 120: #111-115: Can June Jones revive SMU?

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #111 to #115. To see the full list, click here.

111. Rice Owls

2007 Results    Record: 3-9    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #114    Success: #110    Combined: #114
Rice will be better than last year's team; how much better is up to QB Chase Clement and the myriad of experience returning to the Owls, who failed to impress last season.
Offense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #65    Adj. Rush Yards: #113    Adj. Pass Yards: #19
Last year starting QB Chase Clement (3,377 yds 29 TDs) was the team's leading rusher as well, demonstrating not only his talent but also the team's poor rushing game. All his favorite targets return, including 1,000 yd receiver Jarrett Dillard (14 TDs). The line should be decent, with 3 of 5 starters returning. And with last season's best backs back, perhaps Rice's attack will be a bit more balanced? Either way, the offense should be even more productive, especially if Clement can cut down on last season's 18 interceptions.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #119    Adj. Rush Def: #104    Adj. Pass Def: #116
Rice allowed a lot of ball movement last year, both on the ground and especially through the air. But the secondary might be the unit's strength this year, with Andrew Sendejo (107 tackles, 5 INT) and Brandon King back, and Bencil Smith recovering from a broken foot. Both starters return at linebacker but two of the front four are replaced in the line. Lots of returning lettermen on the defensive side, too, but there's a lot of work to be done.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Clark Fangmeier is great on extra points (98%, 1 miss) but mediocre (7-12) on FGs. The Owls need a new punter, who could either be a freshman or redshirt freshman.
Recruiting: Rice's last 2 classes have been just inside the top 100, so there's no reason the Owls should be quite this poor. But with the many returning starters and 2nd and 3rd stringers, few freshman members of either class will make a big difference this season, save perhaps a few on the offensive line.

Rice 2008 schedule & forecast 8/29 Fri vs. *Southern Methodist 55% W 9/6 Sat @ *Memphis 42% L 9/13 Sat @ Vanderbilt 30% L 9/20 Sat @ Texas 13% L 9/27 Sat vs. North Texas 62% W 10/4 Sat @ *Tulsa 28% L 10/18 Sat vs. *Southern Mississippi 43% L 10/25 Sat @ *Tulane 45% L 11/1 Sat @ *Texas-El Paso 43% L 11/8 Sat vs. Army 63% W 11/22 Sat vs. *Marshall 46% L 11/29 Sat vs. *Houston 45% L Favored: 3-9 Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook Last year the Owls were embarrassed by Nicholls State and blown out by Baylor in the first two weeks, which set the tone for '07. They managed close wins against Southern Miss (2 points), UTEP (8 points), and SMU (1 pt.), but mainly lost close games where the offense couldn't keep up with what the defense was yielding. A few touchdowns here and there separated a potential 8-4 season from a possible 0-12 year.

The bad news is, this season might be more of the same. Though home games against SMU, North Texas, and Army are winnable, early road contest at Vandy, Texas, and Tulsa are tough...and then there are about six tossups that Rice once again is more likely to take the wrong side of. The good news is that the cumulative odds favor the Owls to steal a couple of these and finish with five wins—and with a little extra luck they could be on the cusp of a bowl berth. For that to happen, the offense just has to keep rolling along but the defense needs to improve quite a bit.

112. Northern Illinois Huskies

2007 Results    Record: 2-10    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #116    Success: #115    Combined: #116
The Huskies return a lot of players...most of whom weren't very good last year. Can new coach Jerry Kill take this seasoned talent to a new level?
Offense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #120    Adj. Rush Yards: #105    Adj. Pass Yards: #94
The Husky offense in 2007 was last in the nation in scoring, factoring in their competition. Despite 1,000 yard rusher Justin Anderson (8 TDs), they had trouble getting the ball in the end zone, exceeding 30 only twice in '07 and scoring a total of 6 points against the two BCS teams (Iowa and Wisconsin) on their schedule. QB play was erratic, with Dan Nicholson (who played injured most of the year) and Ryan Morris combining for 13 TDs and 19 INTs. All the top receivers are back along with Anderson so if the QB play improves there might be some spark in the offense. Much of the O-Line returns intact as well. Now the key is to stay healthy, though almost all of the 2- and 3-deep return, too.
Defense (10 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #96    Adj. Rush Def: #111    Adj. Pass Def: #89
The defense couldn't make up for the offense's deficiencies last season, which is the kind of thing that leads to a 2-10 record. But almost the whole unit returns this season, along with returnees from '06 that, taken together, you could argue the Huskies have more than 11 returning starters on D. DE Larry English (10.5 sacks) anchors the line and sophomore safety Alex Kube (111 tackles) the best of the secondary last year now at linebacker. Overall though last season's play from the very same crew left a lot to be desired.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Andy Dittbenner returns with a fine 43.5 yd ave last year, though his net barely increased from '06; he's listed as backup kicker as well, while Mike Salerno (ex Winona State) is the new starter.
Recruiting: Look no farther than the recruiting rankings to see why the Huskies are in the dog house. Both of the last two years, the classes have rated in the bottom 10. That said, two members of the '07 class may push Nicholson for the starting QB job.

N. Illinois 2008 schedule & forecast 8/30 Sat @ Minnesota 35% L 9/6 Sat @ *Western Michigan 37% L 9/20 Sat vs. Indiana State 92% W 9/27 Sat @ *Eastern Michigan 42% L 10/4 Sat @ Tennessee 16% L 10/11 Sat vs. *Miami (Ohio) 45% L 10/18 Sat vs. *Toledo 47% L 10/25 Sat vs. *Bowling Green 45% L 11/5 Wed @ *Ball State 29% L 11/12 Wed vs. *Central Michigan 42% L 11/18 Tue @ *Kent State 44% L 11/25 Tue vs. Navy 47% L Favored: 1-11 Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook Half of N. Illinois' losses last year were by 5 points or fewer. But there were also back-to-back 44-3 and 70-21 blasts by Wisconsin and Toledo. The two wins were by 7 points each over lowly Idaho and Kent State.

Much of the Huskies' woe was blamed on injury, and it seems to be happening again, with dozens of players missing spring practice, and key players like Nicholson and English recovering over the summer. Luckily the team is very deep with experience, so it's hard to imagine the record being worse in '08 regardless of bad luck.

Or could it? The MAC is full of teams with returning experience, moreso than probably any conference in the country. The Huskies' only gimme is against Div I-AA Indiana State (0-11 last season). Three home games in the middle of the year are possible wins, as are the three contests that close out the season, but I have the Huskies favored in none of them. Is a 1-11 season on the way?

I very much doubt it. I think Northern Illinois will finish closer to the 5-7 odds-based projection than last year's two wins. Despite the nagging injuries, there are too many experienced players coming back. Some of the close games are bound to go the Huskies' way, and if all of them do, they'll make it to a bowl game. How well the offensive squad can run Kill's system—and how much the dismal D can improve—will determine the result.

113. Idaho Vandals

2007 Results    Record: 1-11    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #118    Success: #120    Combined: #118
Idaho's offense looks to be much improved, but a defense that was already porous last season might undermine the offense's progress.
Offense (10 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #107    Adj. Rush Yards: #72    Adj. Pass Yards: #77
The Vandals' yardage stats weren't bad—they just couldn't put points on the board to match their yardage output. RB Deonte Jackson ran for 1275 yards but scored just 7 TDs, and QB Nathan Enderle threw 10 TD passes vs. 18 interceptions at only 44%. The reloaded offense returns several top receivers as well, and the offensive line is nearly intact, though left guard Mike Iupati will miss the first month. Even the backups return, with only one letterman missing from the 2- and 3-deep. If they can limit the turnovers and just put points on the board to equal their yardage, this offense will excel.
Defense (4 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #116    Adj. Rush Def: #81    Adj. Pass Def: #55
Like the offense, the yardage stats were much better on D than the scoring stats. Despite having a respectable pass defense yardagewise, teams were able to score on the Vandals at will. This is another result of turnovers: when the field is short for your opponent, yards don't matter much. Shiloh Keo returns at strong safety (and punt returner) for the Vandals, as does cornerback Breyon Williams. The line also returns two starters, but all the linebackers are young and less experienced. Again like the offense, the vast majority of backups return to fill the starting roles, but there's a lot to fill on a unit that already has its problems. The unit is planning to switch back to a 4-3 formation this season.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Special teams are a strong point this year, with Keo averaging 16.8 yards per punt return, T.J. Conley a mostly consistent punter, and kicker Tino Amancio basically a given inside the 40.
Recruiting: Idaho's recruiting is not that bad. They've been inside the top 100 (or at least close) the last 2 years, which should be good enough to avoid 1-11 seasons. This season, so much talent returns that freshman from both classes will largely wait their turn, though there are some holes on defense that might be filled with frosh blood, so to speak.

Idaho 2008 schedule & forecast 8/30 Sat @ Arizona 19% L 9/6 Sat vs. Idaho State 68% W 9/13 Sat vs. Western Michigan 44% L 9/20 Sat @ *Utah State 45% L 9/27 Sat @ San Diego State 42% L 10/4 Sat vs. *Nevada 43% L 10/11 Sat @ *Fresno State 22% L 10/18 Sat @ *Louisiana Tech 43% L 10/25 Sat vs. *New Mexico State 59% W 11/1 Sat vs. *San Jose State 53% W 11/15 Sat vs. *Boise State 28% L 11/22 Sat @ *Hawaii 33% L Favored: 3-9 Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook '07 was a season to forget. After a surprisingly close (38-10) contest with USC, Idaho got its a win over Cal-Poly that would turn out to be their last. Most of the rest in the 10-game skid weren't even close, though there were only two real blowouts (Boise State and Hawaii, naturally).

The team's psychology might have a lot to do with how much they can improve. Losing 10 straight games to end a season can do a lot of damage. After the opener at Arizona, though, they get a chance to post a home win over intrastate rival Idaho State, and there's no better medicine than that. They just better make sure they win that one, or the downward spiral will continue, and they could miss an opportunity to win any of the next four which could all be tossups. I have them favored at home vs. San Jose State and New Mexico State before probable losses to Boise and at Hawaii.

All in all, they should do no worse than three wins, which is quite an improvement considering they really don't rate much better overall than last season. But with the defense looking so questionable, I'd say the projection of five wins is likely a ceiling.

114. SMU Mustangs

2007 Results    Record: 1-11    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #112    Success: #119    Combined: #112
The big story at Southern Methodist is of course new head coach June Jones, who fans are hoping will replicate his Hawaii success at this once-great but long-suffering program. Though Jones may pull it off, it's probably going to take a bit longer than the single year it took in Honolulu.
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #85    Adj. Rush Yards: #60    Adj. Pass Yards: #46
Barring any major changes by Jones*, the offense revolves around QB Justin Willis, who passed for almost 3,000 yards and 25 TDs and was the team's leading rusher to boot. Willis was suspended for much of the year but is now in Jones' good graces apparently. Many of his receivers are gone but Emmanuel Sanders returns as well as the two top backs from '07. The line needs some work if they're going to give Willis the protection he needs to cut down on his 18 INT total. Add in a complete change in system and you have a recipe for a pretty big question mark. *note: A major change was announced by Jones recently: Justin Willis is now the 3rd-string quarterback; true freshmen Braden Smith and Bo Levi Mitchell are the two candidates, with Mitchell slightly in the lead. 
Defense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #115    Adj. Rush Def: #106    Adj. Pass Def: #105
The D was equally bad at defending the run and the pass last season, which added up to one of the worst scoring defenses in the nation. It's a mishmash as to how to count returning starters on this side of SMU's line, with many part-time starters back or missing. Brian McCann is the standout in the secondary and Will Bonilla the defensive MVP at linebacker.
Kicking Game ('2' RS): Thomas Morestead is a double threat for the Mustangs at punter and kicker. He's better at the former than the latter, with a nearly 45 yard average and 40 yard net. He missed several short field goals in '07, but he was perfect on extra points, and was 3 of 4 on 50 yarders though just 13 of 20 overall.
Recruiting: Though dismal for a major program, SMU's recruiting for '08 and '07 ranked in the low 90s both years, so the team shouldn't have sunk quite this low. Redshirt freshman Kelvin Beachum is slated to start on the offensive line, and with Jones' new system there may be opportunity for the youth on the team—he's stated that over a dozen true freshmen will play this year. It will be interesting to see the future results of Jones settling in on the bountiful Texas recruiting trail. Update: two quarterbacks that Jones recruited for 2008 are the finalists for starter. Braden Smith and Bo Levi Mitchell, both from Texas, are still in the hunt.

SMU 2008 schedule & forecast 8/29 Fri @ *Rice 45% L 9/6 Sat vs. Texas State 63% W 9/13 Sat @ Texas Tech 2% L 9/20 Sat vs. Texas Christian 31% L 9/27 Sat @ *Tulane 44% L 10/4 Sat @ *Central Florida 28% L 10/11 Sat vs. *Tulsa 34% L 10/18 Sat vs. *Houston 43% L 10/25 Sat @ Navy 39% L 11/8 Sat vs. *Memphis 48% L 11/15 Sat @ *Texas-El Paso 42% L 11/29 Sat vs. *Southern Mississippi 42% L Favored: 1-11 Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook The Mustangs lost big to Texas Tech, beat North Texas, then lost ten in a row, with three of the losses overtime games and another by a single point. If that doesn't get a team depressed I don't know what will. Hopefully for SMU's sake the hiring of Jones has wiped away much of that memory.

Learning a new system is hard work. SMU has a lot of key players back, but loses a lot of experience, too. That said, the experience isn't as crucial when the system is changing. Though Jones will turn the program around eventually, this team is essentially the same as last year, and will have the same number of close games, and will probably lose most of them. This does present an opportunity, of course; a change in attitude can yield positive results in tossup games, which SMU will see plenty of in conference. While attitude won't change the outcome of the Texas Tech game, this season will be a good bellwether for the program under Jones in general. Repeat last year's 1-11 and it says that it will take 3-4 years for the new system to sink in. Go better than 5-7 and the players are overachieving and Jones will deserve credit for another quick turnaround.

115. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns

2007 Results    Record: 3-9    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #109    Success: #109    Combined: #109
Louisiana-Lafayette's success last season matched the quality of their team—both were pretty dismal, but not in the bottom 10. In 2008, they'll have to hope that they can "git above their raisin'" as the saying goes, because overall they might be worse. Still, a soft Sun Belt conference schedule allows for a wide range of outcomes record-wise.
Offense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #93    Adj. Rush Yards: #9    Adj. Pass Yards: #117
The Cajuns put almost all their eggs into the running game basket. Two players exceeded 1,000 yards on the ground last season—running back Tyrell Fenroy and quarterback Michael Desormeaux. Both ran for 7 TDs, while Desormeaux added 10 TD passes but just 1,405 passing yards and also 10 interceptions. Not that it matters much, but most of the team's top receivers return. Four returning starters anchor the line though they do lose their best lineman, Jesse Newman.
Defense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #108    Adj. Rush Def: #117    Adj. Pass Def: #66
You would think a run-oriented team might have a good rushing defense, but apparently that's not always the case. This year while the front four and the secondary may be questionable, Antwyne Zanders, Grant Fleming, and Brent Burkhalter—the team's three leading tacklers—all return at linebacker. 
Kicking Game (2 RS): Kicker Drew Edmiston returns; he has a limited range but is good inside the 40. Punter Spencer Ortega is adequate.
Recruiting: The Cajuns' recruiting is pretty much bottom 10 territory, which is how they landed here. Unencouragingly, I see no members from either class in any starting projections, though there are several in the two-deep.

LA-Lafayette 2008 schedule & forecast 8/30 Sat @ Southern Mississippi 34% L 9/13 Sat @ Illinois 21% L 9/20 Sat vs. Kent State 49% L 9/27 Sat @ Kansas State 23% L 10/4 Sat @ *Louisiana-Monroe 39% L 10/11 Sat @ *North Texas 53% W 10/18 Sat vs. *Arkansas State 48% L 11/1 Sat vs. *Florida International 57% W 11/8 Sat vs. Texas-El Paso 48% L 11/15 Sat @ *Florida Atlantic 28% L 11/22 Sat @ *Troy 23% L 12/3 Wed vs. *Middle Tennessee St 46% L Favored: 2-10 Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook Beaten solidly but not blown out in their first five games (including a loss to I-AA power McNeese State), the Cajuns defeated North Texas, then lost three more including an overtime fall to FAU and a 59-7 drubbing at Tennessee. They finished strong, beating Middle Tennessee and Florida International before dropping a disappointing 17-11 contest to Louisiana-Monroe at home.

This year for the Cajuns, like most of the teams in the bottom ten, will be made or broken in the close games which may be plentiful. Only favored in two contests (North Texas and FIU), they will have four others (Kent State, Arkansas St., UTEP, and Middle Tennessee) that are very winnable. They'll probably have to do it with offense, staying a score ahead of the opposition, unless the defense can learn to stop the run. The game at Illinois will pit Desormeaux against Juice Williams, showcasing two quarterbacks who have achieved remarkably similar stats under very different circumstances.

2008 Pre-season 120: #116-#120: Army sinks to the bottom

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values.

This is the first installment, and covers teams from #116 to #120. To see the full list, click here.

116. UAB Blazers

2007 Results    Record: 2-10    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #115    Success: #112    Combined: #115
Though Alabama-Birmingham should have an improved defense, they probably won't be significantly better overall, at least not enough to overcome another tough non-conference schedule.
Offense (6.5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #109    Adj. Rush Yards: #104    Adj. Pass Yards: #68
Joe Webb returns as last year's #2 QB, and the good news is the three top receivers are back—except that Webb was one of them. He was also the team's 2nd leading rusher. The returning starters number is byzantine, as many starters shifted position, but in general most of the best skill players are back somewhere in the mix, while 3/5 of the O-line returns. A lot of shuffling on offense in coach Neil Calloway's 2nd year, but it will be worth it if they can improve on the 15 TD/15 INT numbers racked up by Webb and last year's starter Sam Hunt, and gain more yards on the ground as well. Alabama transfer Aaron Johns will help with the latter if he qualifies academically.
Defense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #110    Adj. Rush Def: #120    Adj. Pass Def: #77
The Blazers were dead last in rushing yards given up. Or first, rather—the point is they were the worst in the nation in stopping the run. Help is on the way with all of the front four returning, which should at the least prevent them from finishing last again. Only one linebacker is lost and 3/4 of the secondary returns, so the respectable pass defense should be better too. Overall a much improved unit, which is expected since last year was nearly bottom 10 in points given up.
Kicking Game ('2' RS): Swayze Waters handles both chores for the Blazers, as well as kickoffs. He's a better-than-average punter and hit 3 FGs from 50+ yards, but also missed 3 inside the 40.
Recruiting: UAB is no recruiting powerhouse, clearly taking what's left over after Alabama and Auburn (and others) take their share, and finished around #100 the last few years. This season they garnered 11 JUCO transfers to help immediately, so some of the holes mentioned above might be filled with newcomers.

UAB 2008 schedule & forecast 8/30 Sat vs. *Tulsa 32% L 9/6 Sat @ Florida Atlantic 26% L 9/13 Sat @ Tennessee 12% L 9/20 Sat vs. Alabama State 72% W 9/27 Sat @ South Carolina 9% L 10/2 Thu vs. *Memphis 45% L 10/11 Sat @ *Houston 34% L 10/18 Sat vs. *Marshall 42% L 11/1 Sat @ *Southern Mississippi 32% L 11/15 Sat @ *Tulane 41% L 11/22 Sat vs. *East Carolina 32% L 11/29 Sat @ *Central Florida 26% L Favored: 1-11 Projected: 4-8

2008 Season Outlook 2007 wasn't looking too bad at the halfway point. UAB was been blown out at Michigan State but put a scare into FSU, losing 34-24 in Tallahassee. Wins over Alcorn State and Tulane put them at 2-4. Then the offense collapsed, scoring 10 or fewer points four times while the defense gave up 40+ four times, resulting in a six-game skid.

Once again the Blazers face a couple of strong BCS teams in the pre-season. Though they'll get past Alabama State, they have little chance against Tennessee or South Carolina, and even Florida Atlantic looks like formidable task. In CUSA play, Tulsa, Houston, Southern Miss, East Carolina, and UCF will be tough, leaving perhaps three more winnable games for the possibility to improve to 4-8. It could be another long year if things get off on the wrong foot, but either way the season should be one step in the right direction to build the program.

117. New Mexico State Aggies

2007 Results    Record: 4-9    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #117    Success: #108    Combined: #117
Last season New Mexico State actually overachieved a bit with four wins. With one less game and only one Division I-AA squad on the schedule, they may find it hard to match last year's record.
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #100    Adj. Rush Yards: #117    Adj. Pass Yards: #4
Chase Holbrook completed an amazing 70% of his passes for nearly 4,000 yards and had 26 TDs (w/18 INTs). Backup J.J. McDermott added another 430 yards in limited play, showing how geared toward the pass this offense is. Thus it's important that two of the three top receivers return, including Chris Williams who had 11 TD catches in '07. Less important is losing two of their three top rushers to transfer. The O-line has some holes but should be ok. Overall, the offense looks good, but should again be without balance and may still have trouble scoring despite all the passing yards and speed at the receiver position.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #117    Adj. Rush Def: #101    Adj. Pass Def: #90
The Aggies couldn't stop anyone from scoring last season, giving up at least 14 each time out and 30+ nine times. They lose top tackler Dante Floyd at linebacker, and two of the front three, which may make their laggard rushing defense even worse. Most of the secondary returns so pass defense theoretically improves as the team shifts to a 3-3-5 formation under new defensive coordinator Joe Lee Dunn. Several junior college transfers are also slated to help pick up the slack on D this season.
Kicking Game (0 RS): Last year's kicker, walk on Paul Young, transferred after losing the starting job to sophomore Kyle Hughes, who was academically ineligible in '07. The punting position is up in the air, though Hughes may handle that too so that NMSU gets their money's worth, or freshman Jordan Davenport or sophomore Ryan Janstram may take over.
Recruiting: The 2008 class ranks in the bottom 10 in the nation, the '07 not much better. But Hal Mumme did bring in many JUCO transfers that can help out immediately, particularly at the linebacker position.

New Mexico State 2008 schedule & forecast 9/6 Sat vs. Nicholls State 52% W 9/13 Sat @ Nebraska 20% L 9/20 Sat @ Texas-El Paso 37% L 9/27 Sat vs. New Mexico 36% L 10/11 Sat @ *Nevada 31% L 10/18 Sat vs. *San Jose State 48% L 10/25 Sat @ *Idaho 41% L 11/1 Sat vs. *Boise State 23% L 11/8 Sat vs. *Hawaii 35% L 11/15 Sat @ *Fresno State 16% L 11/22 Sat vs. *Louisiana Tech 44% L 11/29 Sat @ *Utah State 39% L Favored: 1-11 Projected: 4-8

2008 Season Outlook NMSU beat Division I-AA teams Southeast Louisiana and Arkansas-Pine Bluff last year, as well as UTEP and 1-11 Idaho. They lost close games to Louisiana Tech and Nevada but ended with a five-game skid on their 13-game schedule.

This year there will be no easy wins. Even the opener against Nicholls State, who last year beat Rice, is questionable. After that, finding wins is going to be hard. San Jose State, Louisiana Tech, and the road game against Idaho are possibilities.

On the bright side, only Nebraska, Boise State, and Fresno State look like certain losses. The rest will be tough games that the Aggies can win if they've improved their defense enough, as well as their offense's scoring ability. Things could go really bad, though, if they drop the opener; they would likely go 0-5 to start, then, which could lead to a downward spiral they can't afford.

118. Florida International Golden Panthers

2007 Results    Record: 1-11    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #119    Success: #118    Combined: #119
The Panthers should be a lot better this year. But that means, a lot better than not very good at all. Despite a slew of returning players, coach Mario Cristobal has another rebuilding year—or rather, building year—on his hands.
Offense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #118    Adj. Rush Yards: #95    Adj. Pass Yards: #116
QB Paul Younger returns, coming off an '07 season where he passed for just 9 TDs and suffered 17 interceptions. He was however the 2nd leading rusher as well, on a team that ran the ball a lot better than it passed. Backup Paul McCall had a much better 5-1 ratio and they may turn to him to improve the passing numbers, as he completed 56% to Youngers' 46% and led them to their only win; plus the latter is still recovering from a broken collarbone. Either way, both should contribute to the Panthers' spread offense, which boasts every pass catcher and RB returning. The offensive line is the only question and it returns three starters.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #111    Adj. Rush Def: #87    Adj. Pass Def: #101
Even when the offense got going last year, which was rare, the Panthers gave up too many points for it to be of any use. Losses in the front four and secondary may hurt, but the linebackers are solid and overall the vast majority of 2nd and 3rd string experience returns. They won't be a great D but there's not much of anywhere to go but up.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Chris Cook got a lot of practice punting over the last two years and has improved. Conversely, kicker Chris Abed only had the chance to attempt 11 extra points last season and eight field goals. Both return along with Dustin Rivest who backs up both positions.
Recruiting: Cristobal had a "good" year recruiting for '08. That is, a rank in the mid-90s, which for a very new and developing program qualifies as a good year. The idea is that eventually a lot more of the local talent will consider FIU an option, of course. At the least, the team has advanced to the level that the Panthers aren't forced to play incoming freshman at key position.

FIU 2008 schedule & forecast 8/30 Sat @ Kansas 0% L 9/6 Sat @ Iowa 22% L 9/20 Sat vs. South Florida 4% L 9/27 Sat @ Toledo 34% L 10/4 Sat @ *North Texas 49% L 10/11 Sat vs. *Middle Tenn. State 42% L 10/18 Sat @ *Troy 19% L 11/1 Sat @ *Louisiana-Lafayette 43% L 11/8 Sat vs. *Arkansas State 44% L 11/22 Sat vs. *Louisiana-Monroe 42% L 11/29 Sat N *Florida Atlantic 27% L 12/6 Sat vs. *Western Kentucky 45% L Favored: 0-12 Projected: 4-8

2008 Season Outlook '07 was looking a lot like '06 for most of the year. That is, winless and depressing. Not that the schedule helped anything, as FIU took on four BCS schools back-to-back to start the season, scoring 10 points or less each outing. But on their final game of the season, they came up with a cathartic 38-19 win over North Texas to avoid two winless years. Hope is that they still have some of this momentum left heading into '08.

Alas, the 2008 schedule is in some ways even harder. Only three BCS teams this time, but Kansas on the road is one of the biggest mismatches of the season, and USF at home isn't much better. They have last year's victim, North Texas, on the road as well. All in all, the Panthers aren't favored in a single game, which isn't too much of a stretch for a team that's 1-23 the last two seasons.

But there is potential. The team is better, and they should be competitive in fully half their contests. Particularly in conference, where all of these winnable games reside. Adding up the odds they could post four wins, but more realistically they'll improve to 2-10 from 1-11 last year and 0-12 the season before. At that rate, a national championship is only a decade off.

119. North Texas Mean Green

2007 Results    Record: 2-10    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #120    Success: #117    Combined: #120
North Texas was by some measures the worst team in college football last year, getting smacked even by doormat Florida International. They did win two games over Division I-A schools, though (counting Western Kentucky as such), but only one other game was close and there were some monster blowouts. This season the team looks to be only slightly better.
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #91    Adj. Rush Yards: #107    Adj. Pass Yards: #17
For an offense that had Patrick Cobb and Jamario Thomas lead the nation in rushing back-to-back years, their transformation into a passing team under Todd Dodge is a big shift. Last year's QBs Giovanni Vizzi and Daniel Meager traded starts depending on who wasn't hurt, racking up over 3,000 yards, 21 TDs, and 28 INTs between them. They both return, along with favorite target Casey Fitzgerald, who had over 1,000 yards and 12 TDs, including a 99-yarder. With Thomas gone, the running game is further depleted and though the line returns many starters, it will serve the QBs mostly as they run quite a bit under this system. Coach's son Riley Dodge will push the starters for playing time at QB. 
Defense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #120    Adj. Rush Def: #94    Adj. Pass Def: #117
The D was most of last year's problem. They couldn't defend the pass, nor stop anyone from scoring—21 points was the season low.  They may be stronger up front and in the secondary this season, but the linebacking corps is largely depleted, and overall they lose their top five tacklers from last season. With the pass defense improved, the scoring numbers should get better, but don't expect a dominant D by any means.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Kicker Thomas Moreland made only 8 of 15 last season (long of 37 yards), and should be replaced by JUCO transfer Jeremy Knott. Punter Truman Spencer also returns (41.6 ave).
Recruiting: The '08 class ranked far better than the '07 class, which was near the bottom ten. This bodes well for the future under Dodge, and maybe even this season if JUCO transfers and highly-touted frosh QB Riley Dodge contribute. Two of last year's redshirts hope to garner ample playing time at wide receiver as well.

North Texas 2008 schedule & forecast 8/30 Sat @ Kansas State 16% L 9/6 Sat vs. Tulsa 27% L 9/13 Sat @ Louisiana State 4% L 9/27 Sat @ Rice 38% L 10/4 Sat vs. *Florida International 51% W 10/11 Sat vs. *Louisiana-Lafayette 47% L 10/18 Sat @ *Louisiana-Monroe 32% L 10/25 Sat vs. *Troy 24% L 11/1 Sat @ *Western Kentucky 36% L 11/8 Sat @ *Florida Atlantic 21% L 11/22 Sat @ *Middle Tenn. State 32% L 11/29 Sat vs. *Arkansas State 42% L Favored: 1-11 Projected: 4-8

2008 Season Outlook Losing to Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Troy by a combined 190-24 took the stuffing out of last year's team as they started 1-9 before a one-point win over Western Kentucky. Then they became the only team to lose to FIU in two full seasons.

This season they get the FIU rematch at home, and they'd better make the most of it as that may be their only win of the season. The following week against Louisiana-Lafayette is a possibility, and the closer vs. Arkansas State, but other than that the rest of the schedule looks tough for them. Of course trips to Kansas State, Tulsa, and LSU might evoke last season's bad memories, but even the road conference games will be a challenge and although the projection adds up the probabilities to about 3.7 wins, I think it will be hard enough for this team to exceed last year's total.

120. Army Black Knights

2007 Results    Record: 3-9    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #107    Success: #107    Combined: #107
Army wasn't a truly bad team last year—at least, not in the bottom 10 in the nation. This year, though, things don't look so good as they lose the majority of their best and most experienced players.
Offense (4 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #116    Adj. Rush Yards: #111    Adj. Pass Yards: #113
Offense was the main problem last year, and it will remain so in '08. Neither passing or rushing yielded a lot of success measure by yards or points. QB Carson Williams passed for just 1,770 yards and 11 TDs vs. 12 INTs. The ground game wasn't much better, no back gaining over 330 yards. This year, the three top receivers are gone, including Jeremy Trimble who caught over half Army's TD passes. The line returns only a couple of starters. So what do you do? If you're head coach Stan Brock, you switch to the wishbone, where lack of receivers won't matter as much. Either Williams will continue to lead the team and run it, otherwise freshman Paul McIntosh, Mr. Football Indiana, who ran for 1,600 yards to go with his 22 TD passes, will contribute immediately.
Defense (4 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #87    Adj. Rush Def: #113    Adj. Pass Def: #24
Overall the defense wasn't that bad. But their lack of ability to stop the run might be what made the passing defense look so good. Things may improve on that front with a couple starters back on the line and in the linebacking corps, including standout Frank Scappaticci. But they lose top tacklers Jordan Murray and Caleb Campbell from the secondary, which is largely depleted and may make teams want to throw the ball more.  As on the offense, the problems run deeper than the starting set; Army actually loses more letterman than they retain, one of the few schools in that situation.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Adam DeMarco kicked extra points for the Knights last year, but now must take over field goals as well, replacing Owen Tolson who was a mediocre kicker but a great punter, averaging 45 yards a kick.
Recruiting: I don't know if they followed the "real" army's lead an used a video game for recruiting, but the '08 class was a significant improvement over the '07 class, which ranked near the bottom of the nation. More than likely, Brock was settled into his job and able to recruit properly; also, the higher ranking of the class is largely due to McIntosh.

Army 2008 schedule & forecast 8/29 Fri vs. Temple 36% L 9/6 Sat vs. New Hampshire 37% L 9/20 Sat vs. Akron 41% L 9/27 Sat @ Texas A&M 15% L 10/4 Sat @ Tulane 36% L 10/11 Sat vs. Eastern Michigan 40% L 10/18 Sat @ Buffalo 29% L 10/25 Sat vs. Louisiana Tech 41% L 11/1 Sat vs. Air Force 38% L 11/8 Sat @ Rice 37% L 11/22 Sat @ Rutgers 10% L 12/6 Sat N Navy 35% L Favored: 0-12 Projected: 4-8

2008 Season Outlook Last season Army beat only Division I-AA Rhode Island—in overtime—while starting 1-3, though they didn't embarrass themselves vs. Wake Forest or Boston College. They won two more over Temple and Tulane and stood at the halfway point at 3-3.

Then things came unravelled, as QB injuries made consistency a thing of the past, and offensive production shut down and the defense gave way, a disastrous combination. They exceeded 10 points only twice and yielded 30+ in all six losses that closed the year.

The '08 schedule is hardly backbreaking; the team opted out of contests with Boston College, Georgia Tech and Tulsa. But most of the easier teams are on the road. Even Division I-AA New Hampshire doesn't look promising at home, as the Wildcats are a top 25 team in the FCS with several recent wins over FBS (I-A) schools. Other than Akron, Louisiana Tech, and Eastern Michigan, there aren't many opportunities here.

The good news is that there are a lot of games that Army can be competitive in. Although adding up the estimated odds yields a four-win season, I'd guess that Army is more likely to go 0-12 than 4-8. Unless the wishbone offense yields immediate and striking results, Brock—who recently announced he is recovering from prostate cancer surgery—may have to wait a few more years to guide the team to its first winning record in over a decade.