One more NFL topic, and then I promise I'm back to collegiate matters. This one is the flipside of the last post. Will either of the two winless teams in the NFL win a game? Or will they join the Tampa Bay Buccaneers expansion year squad in the annals of futility?
Using the same method I used to analyze New England's chances of going undefeated, I first look at the worst team in the NFL, the St. Louis Rams. According to my NFL power rating, they are worst in the league, worst in offense, and close to the worst in defense.
Opponent % Rams win
at New Orleans 6.25%
at San Francisco 21.87%
Seattle 9.37%
Atlanta 25.00%
at Cincinnati 3.13%
Green Bay 3.13%
Pittsburgh 6.25%
at Arizona 10.93%
Favored: 0-8 (0-16)
Projected: 1-7 (1-15)
The Rams do play some bad teams, such as the 49ers, Falcons, and Cardinals. They aren't favored in any of them—a 1 in 4 chance of beating Atlanta is their single best shot—but their cumulative odds of pulling an upset somewhere along the line are 61%, meaning they are projected to finish 1-15 for the year. Still, that leaves a disconcerting 39% chance of going 0-16.
The Miami Dolphins are much better than their 0-8 record would lead one to believe. Four of their losses came by three points each. When corrected for their opposition, their offense is 15th in the league and defense is 26th—not good but far from the bottom. Overall they rank 27th when score margin is taken into account rather than wins and losses. But they are still 0-8, and being known as the better of the two winless teams is not much consolation. However, there is hope on the horizon:
Opponent % Dolphins win
Buffalo 57.81%
at Philadelphia 29.68%
at Pittsburgh 18.75%
New York Jets 62.50%
at Buffalo 45.31%
Baltimore 71.87%
at New England 0.00%
Cincinnati 60.93%
Favored: 4-4 (4-12)
Projected: 3-5 (3-13)
Odds of winning 1+ games: 99.5%
The Dolphins aren't a terrible team; they are a poor team that has so far played like a terrible team. But their remaining schedule, combined with their actual strength (I use that word loosely), produces a projected 3-5 finish. The Dolphins are actually favored in four of the eight games, but the cumulative odds produces a more likely three wins. Most importantly, this method puts their odds of going winless at only one-half of 1%.
Now, here's the catch (and no, not the standard disclaimer that computers and statistics can't prove anything; that's a given): the team's psyche has to be intact after their disastrous start. If losing feeds on itself and they start to believe they can't win a game, they'll continue to lose. Instead of four wins, they might have four more 3-point losses.
But somewhere down the line I think they'll break through with a win, and that will end their "curse" and they will go on to win a few more. Unlike the Rams, who are still up in the air, I think there is no question the Miami Dolphins will win one or more games this season.
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