SportsRatings: College Basketball: NCAA tournament

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (3) Gonzaga vs. (6) TCU

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Gonzaga Bulldogs
Seed: 3
Record: 29-5
Conference: West Coast

vs.

TCU Horned Frogs
Seed: 6
Record: 22-12
Conference: Big Twelve

Date: Sunday, March 19
Time: 8:40 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Denver, CO
Channel: TBS

Can the Zags make the Sweet Sixteen for the 7th straight tournament?

Gonzaga TCU

Power Ratings

Strength:          #6        Strength:          #18
Median: #6 Median: #18
Markov: #9 Markov: #19
Pomeroy:           #7             Pomeroy:           #25
   Offense: #1 Offense: #51
   Defense: #75                     Defense: #23
BPI:               #8 BPI:               #28
LRMC:    #8 LRMC:              #20

Other Measures:

SOS: #65 SOS: #30
Tempo (Offense): #33    Tempo (Offense): #45
Consistency:       #307 Consistency:       #350
Str + Reliability: #7 Str + Reliability: #45
Str + Potential: #4 Str + Potential: #10

2nd half season:   #2 2nd half season:   #16
Last 6: #2 Last 6: #26
Injury Mod Rank:   #4 Injury Mod Rank:   #12

MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #3 Sweet 16: NA

Gonzaga is a killer 3-seed, ranking #6 in Strength, #8 in Pomeroy and #8 in BPI and LRMC. They have the #1 offense in the country but play poorly on defense most of the time, resulting in a #75 efficiency rating. But with the #1 offense it usually doesn't matter. TCU is a pretty tough 6-seed at #18 Strength and #25 Pomeroy, with the #51 offense and #23 on defense.

The main thing that gives TCU a better shot than normal is both teams' inconsistency. They both have up and down games to a much greater degree than most teams, so the chances of TCU having an "up" game and Gonzaga having a "down" game are better when things are shaken up this much. Both teams play at a fast tempo which does lead to greater variance in scoring, but also tends to favor the favorite. Gonzaga has been playing well lately, TCU not so much.

Gonzaga is a shoo-in for the Sweet 16 according to the MegaScreen, which screens the Zags out of Final Four contention due to their weak defense. The Zags have made the Sweet Sixten six tournaments in a row now.

Season overview: Gonzaga

Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(7)Michigan St.+1, (6)Kentucky+16, =(3)Xavier+4, (13)Kent St.+7, @(1)Alabama+10, (5)Saint Mary's+9, =(5)Saint Mary's+26, =(14)Grand Canyon+12
Losses to tournament teams (4): @(2)Texas-19, =(1)Purdue-18, =(3)Baylor-1, @(5)Saint Mary's-OT
Other losses (1): Loyola Marymount-1

Overview: Gonzaga is always one of the teams to watch, especially in the pre-conference season when they mix it up with some of the nation's best. This year the Zags: beat 7-seed Michigan by one point aboard an aircraft carrier; fell to 2-seed Texas 93-74; and beat 6-seed Kentucky 88-72. And that was just in the first four games! In another 3-game stretch the Bulldogs lost to Purdue, 84-66, beat 3-seed Xavier 88-84 (both in one of the Portland Phil Knight tournaments), and fell to Baylor by a point playing in South Dakota for some reason. Their last big non-conference challenge was overall 1-seed Alabama, whom they beat 100-90 in Birmingham, making them 1-1 against 1-seed this season.

In the WCC Gonzaga coasted as usual waiting for the big matchup with 5-seed Saint Mary's but were tripped up by Loyola Marymount on the way, breaking their 76-game home win streak (they won the rematch on the road 108-65). They lost in overtime to the Gaels on the road, beat them at home 77-68, then thrashed them 77-51 in their West Coast Conference tournament final.

Senior Drew Timme, who seemingly has been around forever, is the team's leader. He averages 20.9 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. Three other Zags average in double figures including Julian Strawther who led against Grand Canyon with 28.

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Season overview: TCU

Wins vs. tournament teams (9): =(8)Iowa+13, (11)Providence+13, @(3)Baylor+1, (3)Kansas St.+14, @(1)Kansas+23, (9)West Virginia+4, (2)Texas+2, =(3)Kansas St.+13, =(11)Arizona St.+2
Losses to tournament teams (9): (6)Iowa St.-2, @(2)Texas-4, @(9)West Virginia-9, @(11)Mississippi St.-OT, @(3)Kansas St.-21, (3)Baylor-4, @(6)Iowa St.-11, (1)Kansas-5, =(2)Texas-6
Other losses (3): Northwestern St.-1, @Oklahoma St.-6, @Oklahoma-14

Overview: Perhaps the most remarkable thing about TCU's season is their first three games. The green bar at "0" is the Horned Frogs' average game level. They beat Arkansas Pine-Bluff at home by a point, beat Lamar by 11 at home, then lost to Northwestern State by a point at home. The Frogs almost started the year as bad as Louisville*! (*the Cardinals lost three home games by a point each to terrible teams to kick off their 4-28 season)

But somehow, suddenly, the team was great. Seriously, wtf? Leading scorer Mike Miles (17.3ppg) missed the Northwestern State loss and #2 scorer Damion Baugh (12.6) missed the first six games, but the team was suddenly good at game four against Louisiana Monroe, a 95-60 win. Two games later they beat 8-seed Iowa 79-66, then 11-seed Providence 75-62. And in early January, 3-seed Baylor 88-87 on the road. How does this happen? No wonder the team's Consistency rating is #350—a lot of it is due to those first three games!

In any case after the 13-1 start TCU went 8-11, losing to pretty much the whole Big Twelve plus 11-seed Mississippi State, but beating 3-seed Kansas State, 1-seed Kansas (83-60 on the road!), 9-seed West Virginia, 2-seed Texas, and 3-seed Kansas State again to insure an at-large bid. Mike Miles had 26 in the opening round win over Arizona State.

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Game Analysis: In case it's not obvious, look at Gonzaga's chart and compare the games where they are motivated vs. the ones where they aren't. Compare the last game, Grand Canyon, vs. the game before it, St. Mary's, and the game before that, San Francisco. The Bulldogs had defeated San Francisco on the road and were playing at home, and won by 11. They beat Grand Canyon by 12. St. Mary's had beaten the Bulldogs earlier in the year. Same for game 27, Loyola Marymount. Seem like they were a little motivated to make a statement there? The question is, will they beat that motivated against TCU, or do they expect to waltz into the Sweet Sixteen as they have the last six tournaments in a row?

TCU wasn't playing well entering the tournament and their 2 point win over Arizona State doesn't do much to change that viewpoint. Their terrible 3-point shooting makes it seem unlikely they can come back from any deficit, but their pedestrian 2-point shooting might be good enough to keep them in the game against the porous Zag defense. TCU's own defensive play is good, of course, but on offense Gonzaga has the #1 2-point shooting in the country, doesn't turn the ball over or get their shots blocked.

Vegas Line:

Gonzaga by 4 1/2

Power rating: spread

Gonzaga by 4.9

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Gonzaga: 60.8%
TCU: 39.2%

3-seeds beat 6-seeds about 61% of the time...well look at that. And agreement as usual between the sportsbooks and power ratings.

Bottom line: I don't expect to see Motivated Gonzaga this game, just "take care of business and get to the Sweet Sixteen again" Gonzaga. TCU isn't playing all that well and that should be enough.

Final prediction: Gonzaga 81, TCU 77

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 18, 2023 at 10:10 PM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (4) Indiana vs. (5) Miami

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Indiana Hoosiers
Seed: 4
Record: 23-11
Conference: Big Ten

vs.

Miami Hurricanes
Seed: 5
Record: 26-7
Conference: ACC

Date: Sunday, March 19
Time: 8:40 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Albany, NY
Channel: TNT

I thought both these teams were vulnerable to being upset, but they made it to the 2nd round unlike some 1- and 2-seeds.

Indiana Miami

Power Ratings

Strength:          #23      Strength:          #48
Median: #24 Median: #37
Markov: #20 Markov: #31
Pomeroy:           #30             Pomeroy:           #40
   Offense: #27 Offense: #12
   Defense: #43                     Defense: #132
BPI:               #17 BPI:               #36
LRMC:    #24 LRMC:              #41

Other Measures:

SOS: #23 SOS: #84
Tempo (Offense): #47    Tempo (Offense): #106
Consistency:       #251 Consistency:       #74
Str + Reliability: #29 Str + Reliability: #32
Str + Potential: #29 Str + Potential: #70

2nd half season:   #34 2nd half season:   #42
Last 6: #53 Last 6: #77
Injury Mod Rank:   #34 Injury Mod Rank:   #50

MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #24 Sweet 16: #20

Indiana holds a decent-sized lead over Miami considering they're only a seed apart. In Strength, Pomeroy, LRMC, and especially BPI they have a solid lead. For all of that Miami plays better offense by quite a bit; Indiana's defense is worlds better however.

Indiana's schedule was a lot tougher so far, reflecting the top-to-bottom strength of the Big Ten compared to the ACC. Miami's the far more consistent team though, meaning that Indiana is going to have a bad game to lose basically. Both teams play a quick tempo, Indiana the faster of the two.

Neither team played well down the stretch this year, leading me to pick both to be upset in the first round! But both recovered, at least well enough to beat a 12- and 13-seed, which these days is a cause for celebration with 16-seeds beating 1-seeds and 15-seeds going to the Sweet Sixteen. Who has recovered more? Both still lag in the Last 6 Games measure, but Miami's major doubt was how they could play without Norchad Omier, and he played 36 minutes vs. Drake, so that cause for concern is gone.

Season overview: Indiana

Wins vs. tournament teams (9): @(3)Xavier+2, (14)Kennesaw St.+14, @(9)Illinois+15, (7)Michigan St.+13, (1)Purdue+5, (9)Illinois+3, @(1)Purdue+8, =(8)Maryland+10, =(13)Kent St.+11
Losses to tournament teams (10): =(2)Arizona-14, @(1)Kansas-22, @(8)Iowa-2, (7)Northwestern-1, @(10)Penn St.-19, @(8)Maryland-11, @(7)Northwestern-2, @(7)Michigan St.-15, (8)Iowa-22, =(10)Penn St.-4
Other losses (1): @Rutgers-15

Overview: Indiana started pretty strong at 7-0 with wins over 3-seed Xavier and pre-season #1 North Carolina but shockingly lost their first Big Ten contest to Rutgers, 63-48. They also fell to 2-seed Arizona and 1-seed Kansas. Xavier Johnson was lost for the year early in the KU game and the Hoosiers then lost three Big Ten games in a row. At 1-4 in conference play their pre-season promise looked busted. But they won 8 of their next 9, beating 9-seed Illinois, 7-seed Michigan State, and 1-seed Purdue in that run. But the end of the season was very erratic for the Hoosiers, alternating wins and losses, great games and terrible ones. Beating 1-seed Purdue again—on the road this time—was followed by a 90-68 home loss to 8-seed Iowa. They ended the season 4-4, more unpredictable than ever.

The one constant this year as been the play of Trayce Jackson-Davis, a player-of-the-year candidate who averages 20.8 points per game and 10.9 rebounds, as well as 4.1 assists. As mentioned, 3rd-leading scorer Xavier Johnson was lost early in the season; it seems like they eventually adjusted to playing without him but are inconsistent as a result. They beat Kent State 71-60 behind Jackson-Davis' 20 points.

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Season overview: Miami

Wins vs. tournament teams (6): =(11)Providence+10, (11)N.C. State+7, (4)Virginia+2, (5)Duke+22, (11)Pittsburgh+2, =(12)Drake+7
Losses to tournament teams (5): =(8)Maryland-18, @(11)N.C. State-OT, @(5)Duke-2, @(11)Pittsburgh-3, =(5)Duke-7
Other losses (2): @Georgia Tech-6, Florida St.-1

Overview: Miami popped off to a 13-1 start, beating 11-seed Providence in the pre-conference season as well as UCF and Rutgers while losing only to 8-seed Maryland. They beat 11-seed NC State and 4-seed Virginia before a stunning loss to 15-18 Georgia Tech started a 4-4 skid. All those losses were on the road and the Canes marched on, winning 7 straight including an 81-59 win over 5-seed Duke (the only tournament team in that stretch). Then came the FSU debacle, their first home loss, to a 9-23 team, on a last-second heartbreaking shot by their hated rival. It seems to have done something to them.

The Hurricanes didn't play well at all at the very end. It wasn't just the Duke loss in the final game—where they lost Norchad Omier early in the contest—but all of their last four games: the home loss to Florida State, the 2-point home win over 11-seed Pitt, the 2-point win over Wake Forest—all were basically as bad as the Duke loss.

Omier is a key defensive player, averaging 1.3 blocks and 9.7 rebounds along with being the Hurricanes' #3 scorer at 13.6ppg. Their overall scoring leader is senior guard Isaiah Wong who leads the team with 16.2 points, 3.4 assists and 1.4 steals. Nigel Pack scored 21 in the win over Drake.

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Game Analysis: This is another "double-mismatch" game, the kind that seems so common these days, where both teams either play great offense or great defense, resulting in mismatches on both sides of the floor. In this case it's the team with the ball that's in charge as both teams have defensive play that lags their offensive prowess.

Miami is even better on offense than Indiana, but they're far worse than the Hoosiers on D. When the Hoosiers have the ball they have a great advantage in effective field goal percentage over Miami's defense, both on 3-pointers and especially 2-pointers. The only things Miami does right on defense is create turnovers and not foul.

When Miami has the ball they don't have nearly as good of an advantage shooting. Indiana's D is good at stopping the 2 but not the three, and Miami shoots the three pretty well. Indiana rebounds pretty well on defense, too, and gets a lot of blocked shots. They don't create turnovers, however.

All in all Indiana's defense is weaker but not bordering on putrid like Miami sometimes. Miami's offense is about the same as Indiana's plus they get 2nd shots via rebounds, another weakness of both teams on defense.

Vegas Line:

Indiana by 2

Power rating: spread

Indiana by 3.0

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Indiana: 59.4%
Miami: 40.6%

The 4 vs. 5 matchup is won by the 4-seed about 55% of the time; Indiana's 59% reflects Miami's low power rating scores more than anything else. Vegas has the Hoosiers by 2; our Power rating says three points.

Bottom line: Indiana is playing up and down, but Miami is just playing flat. They look like a team that should have lost in the first round. Neither team looks like a Sweet Sixteen team but at least Indiana looks like they belong in the Round of 32.

Final prediction: Indiana 78, Miami 74

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 18, 2023 at 08:53 PM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (9) Florida Atlantic vs. (16) Fairleigh Dickinson

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Florida Atlantic Owls
Seed: 9
Record: 32-3
Conference: C-USA

vs.

Fairleigh Dickinson Knights
Seed: 16
Record: 21-15
Conference: Northeast

Date: Sunday, March 19
Time: 7:45 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Columbus, OH
Channel: truTV

Fairleigh Dickinson was only the 2nd 16-seed to make the Round of 32; they can be the first in the Sweet Sixteen.

FAU FDU

Power Ratings

Strength:          #29      Strength:          #288
Median: #31 Median: #311
Markov: #32 Markov: #200
Pomeroy:           #22             Pomeroy:           #275
   Offense: #31 Offense: #145
   Defense: #35                     Defense: #353
BPI:               #34 BPI:               #265
LRMC:    #16 LRMC:              #278

Other Measures:

SOS: #124 SOS: #360
Tempo (Offense): #77    Tempo (Offense): #131
Consistency:       #121 Consistency:       #323
Str + Reliability: #22 Str + Reliability: #321
Str + Potential: #45 Str + Potential: #249

2nd half season:   #36 2nd half season:   #271
Last 6: #8 Last 6: #126
Injury Mod Rank:   #28 Injury Mod Rank:   #288

MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: NA Sweet 16: NA

This is an incredible mismatch from every number here, but, what can we say? So was Purdue vs. FDU, to a more ridiculous degree. Purdue's last six games were only #28 if that was a crack in their armor, and Florida Atlantic doesn't even have that as a weakness. They rank around #30 in all the power ratings and #16 in the LRMC, while Fairleigh Dickinson, even after beating Purdue, is in the low 200s across the board. Except the Markov chain which has jumped them 98 spots for that win! They're still #353 in Defense in Pomeroy, up from #359 which seems stingy. As does the rise in SOS from #362 to #360. The tiny rise in Median from #313 to #311, on the other had is expected, since that's how a median works.

The Knights' play over the last six games went from #214 to #126, and their Consistency dropped from #258 to #323.

Season overview: Florida Atlantic

Wins vs. tournament teams (2): (16)Northern Kentucky+15, =(8)Memphis+1
Losses to tournament teams (0): None
Other losses (3): @Mississippi-13, @UAB-9, @Middle Tennessee-4

Overview: FAU lost early and didn't lose for a long time after that. The road loss to Ole Miss was their last for 20 games. Admittedly there weren't many challenges along the way: Florida, South Alabama, North Texas, and UAB were their toughest tests, and they did get a tournament field win over 16-seed Northern Kentucky. But they won by big margins typically, keeping their power ratings high and tipping off observers that they were a team to keep track of. They lost on the road to UAB and Middle Tennessee and after the latter seemed to kick into high gear. Maybe they were unsure of getting an at-large bid and wanted some certainty? In any case their last 7 games are next-level, and their 78-56 neutral court win in the rubber match with UAB is just as strong as Memphis' final win over Houston.

Florida Atlantic spreads out the scoring, with leader Johnell Davis averaging 13.5 per game and 7 others topping 5.0 per game. They play a very short lineup with the exception of 7-1 center Vlad Goldin. Giancarlo Rosado made all six of his field goal attempts in leading the Owls with 15 points in the win over Memphis.

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Season overview: Fairleigh Dickinson

Wins vs. tournament teams (2): =(16)Texas Southern+23, =(1)Purdue+5
Losses to tournament teams (1): @(11)Pittsburgh-22
Other losses (14): @Loyola Chicago-OT, =SIU Edwardsville-1, @Longwood-16, @Saint Peter's-14, @Hartford-8, @Richmond-29, Queens-9, Sacred Heart-7, Stonehill-11, Wagner-4, Central Connecticut-4, @Sacred Heart-OT, @St. Francis PA-10, @Merrimack-1

Overview: Fairleigh Dickinson is the rare team (first?) to get an automatic bid despite losing in the finals of their conference tournament, as Merrimack isn't eligible during transition to D-I. But they got a win over Texas Southern in the play-in game to make up for it; they're legit now!

FDU's early season was dismal, with a 3-6 start before a huge 97-80 win over St. Joe's jump started their season. Suddenly they were only losing two in a row instead of 5 in 6. But they did what they needed to do—reach the NEC finals—to get a bid and here they are, playing Purdue.

5-8 point guard Demetre Roberts is the teams leading scorer with 16.7 per game. In the historic and logic-defying win over Purdue, Sean Moore led with 19 points. Despite being outrebounded by the Boilermakers the Knights took 9 more shots total.

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Game Analysis: Interestingly the first round was both teams' 2nd win over the tournament field, as Florida Atlantic had only beaten 16-seed Northern Kentucky while Fairleigh DIckinson beat Texas Southern in the play-in round.

I'm not picking lightning to strike twice. Fairleigh Dickinson's own coach said they had a very specific plan for Purdue and somehow, it worked. Looking back at 16-seed UMBC against Kansas State in their second-round game, the Retrievers did pretty well, losing 50-43 to the Wildcat as a 13-point underdog per the Strength power rating and 10 1/2 points by Vegas.

Vegas Line:

FAU by 15

Power rating: spread

FAU by 20.7

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

FAU: 90.7%
FDU: 9.3%

This looks like a 3 vs. a 14-seed in terms of odds to win, or even a 2 vs. a 15-seed which after this year's first round is now a 7.2% proposition. Vegas is a bit more subdued in terms of the spread than the Strength power rating, which isn't buying the hype. Or rather, it sees a lot of hype for FAU who has been playing like a top-10 team lately.

Bottom line: FAU deserves a Sweet Sixteen berth and I think they'll get it without much trouble. But I'm not picking FDU by the points after underestimating them so much last time around.

Final prediction: Florida Atlantic 78, Fairleigh Dickinson 66

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 18, 2023 at 06:31 PM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (3) Baylor vs. (6) Creighton

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Baylor Bears
Seed: 3
Record: 23-10
Conference: Big Twelve

vs.

Creighton Bluejays
Seed: 6
Record: 22-12
Conference: Big East

Date: Sunday, March 19
Time: 7:10 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Denver, CO
Channel: TBS

One of the tightest 3 vs. 6 matchups you will find.

Baylor Creighton

Power Ratings

Strength:          #13      Strength:          #12
Median: #9 Median: #12
Markov: #15 Markov: #13
Pomeroy:           #14             Pomeroy:           #13
   Offense: #2 Offense: #29
   Defense: #98 Defense: #14
BPI:               #10 BPI:               #11
LRMC:    #18 LRMC:              #14

Other Measures:

SOS: #6 SOS: #13
Tempo (Offense): #203 Tempo (Offense): #131
Consistency:       #232 Consistency:       #177
Str + Reliability: #16 Str + Reliability: #12
Str + Potential: #13 Str + Potential: #19

2nd half season:   #9 2nd half season: #8
Last 6: #45 Last 6: #23
Injury Mod Rank:   #11(37?) Injury Mod Rank:   #9

MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: NA Sweet 16: #12

Baylor is a solid 3-seed as seen by their Strength rating of #13, Pomeroy of #14, BPI of #10, and slightly lagging LRMC of #18. Their Median game play is in the top ten, and on offense they're the #2 team in the nation. But they don't make our MegaScreen rating for the Final Four or even the Sweet Sixteen largely because of their Defensive Efficiency that is barely under triple-digits.

And if Baylor is a solid 3-seed, what does that make Creighton as a 6? They rank like a 3-seed themselves, with a Strength and Pomeroy ranking 1 spot ahead of the Bears, and BPI one spot behind. The pre-tournament LRMC had them 4 spots ahead. The Bluejays are ahead in our Markov chain but a few spots back in Median.

Both teams played a killer schedule, with tough non-conference slates. Tempo shouldn't be a big factor as both teams are pretty moderate there. And both squads had success in the last half of the season, though both have hit some turbulence lately, Baylor a bit more than Creighton. Baylor's injury situation is clearing up a bit, as Langston Love played 5 minutes in the first round win over UCSB. But that doesn't mean he's close to 100% and Baylor is a lot better when he's fully healthy.

Season overview: Baylor

Wins vs. tournament teams (9): =(2)UCLA+5, =(3)Gonzaga+1, @(9)West Virginia+5, (1)Kansas+6, (8)Arkansas+3, @(6)TCU+4, (9)West Virginia+12, (2)Texas+9, =(14)UC Santa Barbara+18
Losses to tournament teams (10): =(4)Virginia-7, @(2)Marquette-26, @(6)Iowa St.-15, (6)TCU-1, (3)Kansas St.-OT, @(2)Texas-5, @(1)Kansas-16, @(3)Kansas St.-10, (6)Iowa St.-15, =(6)Iowa St.-6
Other losses (0): None

Overview: Baylor started strong with a 64-point win(!) over Mississippi Valley State, and played a tough non-conference schedule, losing to 4-seed Virginia and 2-seed Marquette but beating 2-seed UCLA and 3-seed Gonzaga. That was good practice for the Big Twelve where 2/3 of their foes are in the tournament and the other three are dangerous. They Bears went 5-8 against those tournament teams and beat 8-seed Arkansas along the way. The Bears went 1-1 vs. 1-seed Kansas and 2-seed Texas but 0-2 against 3-seed Kansas State and 0-3 vs. 6-seed Iowa State, to whom they lost the last two games of the year. In their lower-ranked last six games they lost 4 times but also beat Texas.

Baylor is led by guards Keonte George, Adam Flagler, and LJ Cryer, who all average over 14 points per game. Flagler led with 18 points against UCSB in the 74-56 win.

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Season overview: Creighton

Wins vs. tournament teams (5): =(8)Arkansas+3, (11)Providence+6, (3)Xavier+17, (4)Connecticut+3, =(11)N.C. State+9
Losses to tournament teams (9): =(2)Arizona-2, @(2)Texas-5, =(11)Arizona St.-2, @(2)Marquette-11, @(4)Connecticut-9, @(3)Xavier-3, @(11)Providence-OT, (2)Marquette-2, =(3)Xavier-22
Other losses (3): Nebraska-10, =BYU-3, @Villanova-12

Overview: Creighton was an AP poll darling early and at 6-0 they had already beaten 8-seed Arkansas. Then they went on a 6-games skid and all that goodwill was squandered. They really only played one bad game—the home loss to Nebraska—in that stretch which included three 2-seeds (Arizona, Texas, and Marquette) as well as 11-seed ASU, plus BYU in Las Vegas. Two more losses quickly followed to 4-seed UConn and 3-seed Xavier but they held up in the power ratings so their comeback didn't surprise anyone knowledgable. The Bluejays won 8 straight, beating 11-seed Providence, 3-seed Xavier, and 4-seed UConn before hitting a bit more turbulence in the tough Big East. After three solid wins they got beat 82-60 by Xavier in their final outing which stands as their worst game. But they've come back from adversity before.

7-1 center Ryan Kalkbrenner is the team's leading scorer at 15.4 ppg; he was gone for three games during Creighton's 6-game skid, and counting just the game he has played the Bluejays are a top ten team in Strength. The Bluejays bounced back from the big Xavier loss with a solid 72-63 win over NC State behind Kalkbrenner's 31 points (10 of 13 FG).

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Game Analysis: Baylor plays nearly the best offense in the country, but around the #100 defense. That's going to catch up with them at some point before the Final Four, almost certainly. But will it be this game? It's probably going to be a very close one.

One interesting aspect is rebounding. On Creighton's side of the court both teams are poor at rebounding. That changes on the other side, where Baylor is excellent on offensive rebounding and Creighton the same on defense. Creighton's defense doesn't go for steals at all and defends the 2-point almost exclusively, which will leave Baylor's potent 3-point shots open. This is bad news for Creighton.

On the other hand, Creighton shoots 55% from inside the arc and Baylor is awful at defending the 2. Creighton is a much taller team with 7-1 Kalkbrenner who will match with 6-10 Flo Thamba at center. Both teams like to shoot the 3 a lot but the Bluejays may find more success on the inside.

And of course a close game often comes down to free throws. Creighton shoots over 77%, while Baylor shoots just under 75%. Even that makes it too close to call.

Vegas Line:

Baylor by 1 1/2

Power rating: spread

Creighton by 0.1

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Baylor: 48.9%
Creighton: 51.1%

Damn, that's a razor-tight game. The sportsbooks favor Baylor by a point and a half but Strength calls it a tossup or multi-overtime game with Creighton a 51% favorite. Looking at the other power ratings, Pomeroy has Creighton a 1-point favorite and the BPI has Baylor by 0.3 with the Bears a 51.2% favorite! Love it.

Historically the 3-seed wins about 61% of the time so Creighton is clearly a strong 6-seed as we've mentioned.

Bottom line: Sticking with Creighton to advance as planned. It's going to be a close one.

Final prediction: Creighton 74, Baylor 71

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 18, 2023 at 04:34 PM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (4) UConn vs. (5) St. Mary's

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

UConn Huskies
Seed: 4
Record: 26-8
Conference: Big East

vs.

St. Mary's Gaels
Seed: 5
Record: 27-7
Conference: West Coast

Date: Sunday, March 19
Time: 6:10 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Albany, NY
Channel: TNT

The #1 offensive rebounding team meets the #2 defensive rebounding team.

UConn St. Mary's

Power Ratings

Strength:          #6        Strength:          #11
Median: #7 Median: #14
Markov: #4 Markov: #16
Pomeroy:           #4             Pomeroy:           #11
   Offense: #6 Offense: #40
   Defense: #18                     Defense: #9
BPI:               #6 BPI:               #18
LRMC:    #4 LRMC:              #15

Other Measures:

SOS: #51 SOS: #59
Tempo (Offense): #230 Tempo (Offense): #359
Consistency:       #218 Consistency:       #180
Str + Reliability: #4 Str + Reliability: #10
Str + Potential: #7 Str + Potential: #17

2nd half season:   #13 2nd half season:   #15
Last 6: #5 Last 6: #48
Injury Mod Rank:   #5 Injury Mod Rank:   #13

MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: #10
Sweet 16: #6 Sweet 16: #14

UConn is about the best 4-seed you'll find. For a while they were the best team in the country, no doubt, and despite losing quite a few they remain in the top ten in every power rating, including #4 in Pomeroy and LRMC. At #6 in Strength and BPI, they are at least as good as a 2-seed. Another sign of how good they really are is the fact that both their offense and defense rank in the top 20 in Pomeroy.

Then there's St. Mary's, a 5-seed in name but also having the profile of a better seed, maybe about a 3. The Gaels are close to UConn in Strength and Pomeroy and have better defensive play, though their offense lags the Huskies. This game is more appropriate for a Sweet Sixteen contest, not a Round of 32 clash to decide who gets there (the West is clearly the most stacked region and it's not even close).

Both teams made the MegaScreen's Sweet Sixteen with UConn way ahead, but only St. Mary's showed up as a possible Final Four team interestingly.

Season overview: Connecticut

Wins vs. tournament teams (7): =(1)Alabama+15, =(6)Iowa St.+18, (6)Creighton+9, (2)Marquette+15, (11)Providence+18, =(11)Providence+7, =(13)Iona+24
Losses to tournament teams (6): @(3)Xavier-10, @(11)Providence-12, @(2)Marquette-6, (3)Xavier-3, @(6)Creighton-3, =(2)Marquette-2
Other losses (2): St. John's-11, @Seton Hall-1

Overview: As mentioned UConn was the best team in the country until late December; they had beaten 1-seed Alabama 82-67and 6-seed Iowa State in Portland and raced to a 14-0 start. But around game 13 they downshifted a gear it seems; the wins over Georgetown (84-73) and Villanova (74-66) at home weren't dominant. Sure enough, losses followed, most but not all to tournament teams. In all they lost 6 of 8 before slowly recovering their mojo. Finally at the end they put together another solid win streak of six games that ended in a 2-point loss to 2-seed Marquette. Have they truly regained their early season form?

6-9 forward Adama Sanogo is the team's leader in points (16.8) and rebounds (7.3). The Huskies are a tall team, who often have every player on the court at 6-5 or over and also have a 7-2 backup center. UConn beat Ioan behind Sanogo's 28 points (on 13 of 17 shooting).

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Season overview: St. Mary's

Wins vs. tournament teams (5): (12)Oral Roberts+8, (15)Vermont+26, =(5)San Diego St.+7, (3)Gonzaga+OT, =(12)VCU+12
Losses to tournament teams (3): @(1)Houston-5, @(3)Gonzaga-9, =(3)Gonzaga-26
Other losses (4): =Washington-OT, New Mexico-4, Colorado St.-2, @Loyola Marymount-OT

Overview: St. Mary's started 6-0 against a decent schedule, with wins over 12-seed Oral Roberts and a 63-33 beatdown of North Texas (game 3), and a 76-48 win over Hofstra (game 5). They lost three in a row, however, including a 53-48 loss to 1-seed Houston in Fort Worth, Texas. They beat 5-seed San Diego State in Phoenix but lost to Colorado State at home. The Gaels then won 12 straight, ending with a home win over 3-seed Gonzaga and including a win over the Academy of Art (yes the Academy of Art has a basketball team). They were upset by Loyola Marymount in overtime—their 2nd overtime loss out of 7 total—and fell to Gonzaga twice, road and neutral court. The latter was their worst loss and contributes heavily to their poor "last six games" showing.

Logan Johnson leads the team with 14.7 points per game and 3.7 assists. The Gaels bounced back from the Gonzaga loss by beating VCU 63-51 led by Alex Ducas and Mitchell Saxon scoring 17 each.

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Game Analysis: What a great game. Too bad it's coming so early, but there's going to be a lot of that in the West region: teams playing seemingly a round too early.

UConn's claim to fame is being #1 in offensive rebounding, which is what powers their offense along with pretty good shooting. But St. Mary's counters with being the #2 defensive rebounding team! Something's gotta give. The tiebreaker here is probably SOS, because this stat isn't corrected for opponents. But UConn's SOS of #51 and St. Mary's #59 are pretty close, too, so the stats are comparable. UConn is a bit vulnerable to steals on offense so that might give the Gaels an edge on this side of the court.

When St. Mary's has the ball UConn has a big advantage in defending shots, as the Gaels are a decent but not great shooting team. The Huskies tend to foul a lot but the Gaels shoots just 69% from the foul line. They're vulnerable to blocked shots, too, and UConn's defense deals those out a lot.

UConn will be playing very close to home in Albany, whereas St. Mary's is three time zones away from home.

Vegas Line:

UConn by 3 1/2

Power rating: spread

UConn by 3.3

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Connecticut: 59.9%
St. Mary's: 40.1%

4-seeds win about 55% of the time so UConn's odds are actually a bit ahead of history's verdict. Vegas almost exactly matches Strength with their estimate, but I wonder if a bit of home court edge is appropriate due to the huge distance discrepancy between these teams (130 miles vs. 2,900 miles). The Gaels should be over their jet lag by now but I'm sure crowd support is going to the Huskies.

Bottom line: A great matchup, too bad both teams can't advance to the Sweet Sixteen. I kind of hate these things. Even though I picked St. Mary's to get upset, it was a clear upset pick, they're a great team. But I had UConn advancing and pick them here, with close-to-home court urging them on.

Final prediction: UConn 67, St. Mary's 60

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 18, 2023 at 03:23 PM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (2) Marquette vs. (7) Michigan State

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Marquette Golden Eagles
Seed: 2
Record: 29-6
Conference: Big East

vs.

Michigan State Spartans
Seed: 7
Record: 20-12
Conference: Big Ten

Date: Sunday, March 19
Time: 5:15 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Columbus, OH
Channel: CBS

Is it time for another Tom Izzo Final Four, or will it be Marquette's turn?

Marquette Michigan State

Power Ratings

Strength:          #14      Strength:          #34
Median: #16 Median: #28
Markov: #8 Markov: #39
Pomeroy:           #12             Pomeroy:           #32
   Offense: #8 Offense: #41
   Defense: #47                     Defense: #40
BPI:               #13 BPI:               #37
LRMC:    #9 LRMC:              #45

Other Measures:

SOS: #41 SOS: #3
Tempo (Offense): #13    Tempo (Offense): #273
Consistency:       #48 Consistency:       #89
Str + Reliability: #5 Str + Reliability: #23
Str + Potential: #35 Str + Potential: #55

2nd half season:   #15 2nd half season:   #27
Last 6: #13 Last 6: #18
Injury Mod Rank:   #14 Injury Mod Rank:   #18

MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: #5 Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #11 Sweet 16: #35

Marquette has solid power rating numbers across the board but they're borderline for a 2-seed. Strength, Pomeroy, and BPI are suggestive of a 3-seed maybe, and only LRMC is in single digits—along with my Markov Chain implementation which puts the Golden Eagles at #8. They've been in the top ten there all year, often in the top five. Markov chain rankings really like Marquette this year, and it's the biggest gap between the Eagles and the Spartans, who are only #45 in the LRMC. Other than that they're pretty standard for a 7-seed.

Michigan State has played one of the nation's toughest schedules, so they're prepared for two games against Major conference foes in three days. But Marquette played a major conference schedule and in any case didn't face a Major conference foe last time around. Both teams have a pretty high level of consistency and have played well over the last 6 games. Michigan State's Injury-corrected Strength score (with Malik Hall back) also pulls them pretty even with the Eagles.

The MegaScreen really likes Marquette, even as a possible Final Four team. This was prior to Purdue's departure, too, which makes their odds a lot better. And of course, you never know when a Tom Izzo team might make the Final Four out of the blue.

Season overview: Marquette

Wins vs. tournament teams (9): (3)Baylor+26, (6)Creighton+11, (4)Connecticut+6, (11)Providence+8, (3)Xavier+1, @(6)Creighton+2, =(4)Connecticut+2, =(3)Xavier+14, =(15)Vermont+17
Losses to tournament teams (5): @(1)Purdue-5, =(11)Mississippi St.-3, @(11)Providence-OT, @(3)Xavier-4, @(4)Connecticut-15
Other losses (1): Wisconsin-OT

Overview: Marquette doesn't really have a bad loss on their schedule. Five losses to tournament teams including 1-seed Purdue, 3-seed Xavier and 4-seed UConn, and outside that only an overtime loss to NIT-bound Wisconsin, their only home loss of the season. Their win streaks grew from 2 to 3 twice, to five twice, to 8 and counting at the end. And they topped 8 tournament teams including 3-seed Baylor by 26 points, 3-seed Xavier twice, 4-seed UConn twice, and 6-seed Creighton twice.

Kam Jones leads the team with 15.0 points per game while Tyler Kolek adds 13.3 and 7.7 assists. He had 19 in the win over Vermont.

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Season overview: Michigan State

Wins vs. tournament teams (6): =(6)Kentucky+OT, @(10)Penn St.+9, (8)Iowa+2, (8)Maryland+5, (4)Indiana+15, =(10)USC+10
Losses to tournament teams (8): =(3)Gonzaga-1, =(1)Alabama-11, (7)Northwestern-7, @(9)Illinois-9, (1)Purdue-1, @(4)Indiana-13, @(1)Purdue-16, @(8)Iowa-OT
Other losses (4): @Notre Dame-18, @Rutgers-6, @Michigan-12, =Ohio St.-10

Overview: Michigan State had rough patches and success alternately this year. They started 5-4 but with the nation's #3 SOS it was a landmine with losses to 3-seed Gonzaga (by one point) and 1-seed Alabama (in Portland) and a win over 6-seed Kentucky (in double overtime). The really bad loss was to Notre Dame, 70-52. The Spartans went on a 7-game win streak over mostly mediocre competition, then lost 5 of 7 over mostly tough opponents (including 1-seed Purdue twice); their level of play barely budged during this time. Down the stretch they won 5 of 8, beating Ohio State twice before losing to the Buckeyes in the Big Ten tournament.

Michigan State boast a trio of double digit scorers: Tyson Walker leads with 14.6ppg while Joey Hauser leads in rebounding with 6.9 and AJ Hoggard dishes out 6.0 assists per game. Malik Hall is a key reserve who missed 8 games early and 3 games in the middle of the Big Ten season but he's back, and in the games he's played Michigan State is a lot better. Hauser led with 17 points and 8 rebounds in the 72-62 win over USC.

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Game Analysis: When Michigan State has the ball it's pretty even in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency. Marquette's big edge is their top ten offense.

In terms of shot selection, it's Michigan State's #3 ranked 3-point shooting vs. Marquette's #3 ranked 2-point shooting. The odd thing is that Marquette shoots more 3s than the Spartans do. Michigan State doesn't shoot 2's very well but shoots them often; they should turn to the 3-point shot for this game at least as Marquette doesn't defend the 3 well.

Rebounding could give the Spartans the edge, too, as it's not something Marquette does well on either side of the court. They go for steals on defense, and just hope to make their shots on offense, pushing the pace pretty quick while Michigan State plays a slower tempo. Expect long possessions when the Spartans have the ball as Marquette's D settles in for the long haul too.

Vegas Line:

Marquette by 2 1/2

Power rating: spread

Marquette by 3.3

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Marquette: 59.2%
Michigan St: 40.8%

2-seeds vs. 7-seeds are normally a 70/30 proposition, so Michigan State has about 10% extra odds with them but still come up short most of the time.

Bottom line: If Michigan State breaks out the threes this could be a game, but they seem content to go with the lower-value shot. Unless some Tom Izzo magic happens I expect Marquette to advance.

Final prediction: Marquette 72, Michigan State 71

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 18, 2023 at 02:49 PM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (3) Kansas State vs. (6) Kentucky

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Kansas State Wildcats
Seed: 3
Record: 24-9
Conference: Big Twelve

vs.

Kentucky Wildcats
Seed: 6
Record: 22-11
Conference: SEC

Date: Sunday, March 19
Time: 2:40 pm Eastern
Region: CBS
Location: Greensboro, NC
Channel: CBS

Wildcats fight in a SEC/Big Twelve Challenge sequel.

Kansas State Kentucky

Power Ratings

Strength:          #20      Strength:          #26
Median: #27 Median: #38
Markov: #25 Markov: #40
Pomeroy:           #24             Pomeroy:           #28
   Offense: #51 Offense: #14
   Defense: #19                     Defense: #71
BPI:               #31 BPI:               #15
LRMC:    #30 LRMC:              #28

Other Measures:

SOS: #11 SOS: #43
Tempo (Offense): #44    Tempo (Offense): #172
Consistency:       #115 Consistency:       #342
Str + Reliability: #19 Str + Reliability: #49
Str + Potential: #38 Str + Potential: #15

2nd half season:   #22 2nd half season:   #30
Last 6: #21 Last 6: #9
Injury Mod Rank:   #21 Injury Mod Rank:   #27

MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: #11
Sweet 16: NA Sweet 16: #33

Overall Kansas State is a bit of a weak 3-seed; their #20 Strength implies a 5-seed and its their strongest ranking in the power ratings, with Pomeroy at #24 and BPI and LRMC in the low 30's. Kentucky, a strong 6-seed, is nearly their equal in Strength and Pomeroy and bests them easily in the BPI. The LRMC is about even but still gives UK the slight advantage.

Kansas State's strength is defense while Kentucky's is offense; this leads to a great game on paper when UK has the ball, and a lower-level but still very even contest on the other side of the floor.

Kansas State is fairly reliable while Kentucky has had its very notable ups and downs this year, leading to one of the lowest Consistency scores in the nation. They've played really well lately, while Kansas State has played about the same as usual. Kentucky's hope for a deep run depends on them playing at their best; how long can that last?

Despite their strong power ratings K-State was screened out of even the Sweet Sixteen in the MegaScreen, while Kentucky slipped into the rankings but at pretty low values.

Season overview: Kansas State

Wins vs. tournament teams (9): =(11)Nevada+OT, (9)West Virginia+OT, @(2)Texas+13, @(3)Baylor+OT, (1)Kansas+OT, (6)TCU+21, (6)Iowa St.+6, (3)Baylor+10, =(14)Montana St.+12
Losses to tournament teams (6): @(6)TCU-14, @(6)Iowa St.-4, @(1)Kansas-12, (2)Texas-3, @(9)West Virginia-8, =(6)TCU-13
Other losses (3): @Butler-12, @Texas Tech-8, @Oklahoma-14

Overview: Kansas State wasn't taken seriously early on. They needed overtime to beat 11-seed Nevada and lost to Butler, and their pre-Big Twelve schedule was pretty easy so going 11-1 didn't impress. They beat 9-seed West Virginia in overtime at home but it was the road win at Texas, 116-103, that caught people's attention, and wins over 3-seed Baylor and 1-seed Kansas (both in overtime) didn't hurt.

The 'Cats were 17-2 and hit some turbulence and lost 5 of 7, beating only Florida and 6-seed TCU in that span. But two of the losses were to Kansas and Texas, and K-State righted the ship with a 4-game win streak, adding wins over 6-seed Iowa State and another over Baylor while making quick work of both dangerous Oklahoma teams. They did disappoint a bit at the end, falling to West Virginia and then TCU 80-67 in one of their worst performances, but nothing comes easy in the Big Twelve.

Kansas State is led by forward Keontae Johnson with 17.7 points and 7.0 rebounds per game, while 5-8 point guard Markquise Nowell adds 16.8 points and 7.6 assists. Overall K-State is a very short team, #311 in the country in average height. Johnson had 18 and Nowell 17 in the win over Montana State.

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Season overview: Kentucky

Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (16)Howard+32, @(4)Tennessee+7, (7)Texas A&M+9, @(11)Mississippi St.+3, (4)Tennessee+12, (9)Auburn+32, @(8)Arkansas+9, =(11)Providence+8
Losses to tournament teams (7): =(7)Michigan St.-OT, @(3)Gonzaga-16, =(2)UCLA-10, @(7)Missouri-14, @(1)Alabama-26, (1)Kansas-9, (8)Arkansas-15
Other losses (4): South Carolina-3, @Georgia-7, Vanderbilt-2, =Vanderbilt-7

Overview: Kentucky started the season ranked #4 in the polls and started off 7-2, winning big against weak teams while falling to 7-seed Michigan State in overtime and to 3-seed Gonzaga 88-72. Then they hit the skids, losing 4 of the next 7 to 2-seed UCLA, 7-seed Missouri, and 1-seed Alabama, but worst of all, to 11-21 South Carolina at home. That's when the eulogies for the Wildcat season were being read, and with good cause. Right on cue they played their best game so far beating 4-seed Tennessee 63-56 on the road and winning 10 of 13 from there. Along the way they were still erratic, losing to 16-16 Georgia but beating the Vols again. At the end an incredible 86-54 win over 9-seed Auburn was followed by a bad home loss to Vanderbilt which was followed by a road win over 8-seed Arkansas which was followed by yet another loss to Vandy. Kentucky just can't buy any consistency, so what they do next is anyone's guess: Final Four or First Round exit.

There's no doubt the Wildcats have amazing talent, and Oscar Tshiebwe is one of the nation's best, averaging 16.5 points per game and 13.1 rebounds. Tshiebwe garnered an amazing 25 rebounds against Providence including 11 offensive rebounds while Antonio Reeves led in scoring with 22 points.

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Game Analysis: Starting with the higher-level side of the court: When Kentucky has the ball. Kentucky's main issue is poor shooting, and K-State defends the three-point line very well. They're not as good at defending 2-pointers, which is good for Kentucky. They're also not a great rebounding team, which is great news for Kentucky since they're a great offensive rebounding team mostly due to Tshiebwe who is on a tear. So they can miss their shots with impunity knowing he's going to get the rebound. That's not quite true and missing shots isn't a great strategy, but you get the point.

Kansas State on D has to limit fouls and go for steals, while on offense they need to limit turnovers themselves. Basically they need a plan to deal with Tshiebwe inside, on both sides of the court, and the rest should take care of itself. If FDU can make a plan to deal with Edey then Kansas State can limit Tshiebwe. They're a short team but much taller than Fairleigh Dickinson. Compared to that job, this one should be easy.

Vegas Line:

Kentucky by 3

Power rating: spread

Kansas St by 0.2

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Kansas St: 49.2%
Kentucky: 50.8%

Very interesting odds out of Vegas, with Kentucky the favorite. It's not that surprising given the mixed results of the power ratings; it looks like the BPI is the most influential here as the BPI prediction for the game is Kentucky by 2.7, while Pomeroy has K-State by a point. But it might be the rebounding discrepancy that Vegas feels gives Kentucky the edge. It's a good argument, I made it myself. Also over the last six games, Strength gives UK a 3.1 point edge.

3-seeds beat 6-seeds about 60% of the time, but here we see almost exactly even odds.

Bottom line: There are very good arguments for Kentucky to win this game, but I'm not confident they can put two good performances in a row together. Plus I had K-State advancing in my bracket and I need to stick with them as a rule.

Final prediction: Kansas State 82, Kentucky 78 OT

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 18, 2023 at 02:12 PM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (3) Xavier vs. (11) Pittsburgh

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Xavier Musketeers
Seed: 3
Record: 26-9
Conference: Big East

vs.

Pittsburgh Panthers
Seed: 11
Record: 24-11
Conference: ACC

Date: Sunday, March 19
Time: 12:10 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Greensboro, NC
Channel: CBS

If first-round performance means anything, Pitt has a great chance to advance.

Xavier Pittsburgh

Power Ratings

Strength:          #17      Strength:          #75
Median: #21 Median: #59
Markov: #11 Markov: #61
Pomeroy:           #16             Pomeroy:           #77
   Offense: #9 Offense: #24
   Defense: #70                     Defense: #135
BPI:               #21 BPI:               #67
LRMC:    #12 LRMC:              #72

Other Measures:

SOS: #20 SOS: #89
Tempo (Offense): #50 Tempo (Offense): #152
Consistency:       #58 Consistency:       #319
Str + Reliability: #9 Str + Reliability: #88
Str + Potential: #41 Str + Potential: #54

2nd half season:   #21 2nd half season:   #79
Last 6: #24 Last 6: #82
Injury Mod Rank:   #15 Injury Mod Rank:   #82

MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: #8 Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #13 Sweet 16: #42

Xavier will be the clear favorite by the power ratings, obviously as they're a 3-seed vs. an 11-seed and the stats show the difference. Both teams play much better offense than defense which does lead to mismatches on both sides, which in theory could mean a pretty even game as both offenses have success.

Xavier is so consistent that a deep run becomes a possibility, and indeed they made the radar in our Final Four MegaScreen, though outside the likelihood area. They are a solid Sweet Sixteen team, as is expected of a 3-seed. Pitt is very inconsistent which is ironically the one thing that could get them a win: have another upside outlier performance like they did against Iowa State. And Xavier's consistency seems to be breaking down over the last month.

Season overview: Xavier

Wins vs. tournament teams (9): (9)West Virginia+10, (4)Connecticut+10, (6)Creighton+3, (2)Marquette+4, @(4)Connecticut+3, (11)Providence+OT, @(11)Providence+5, =(6)Creighton+22, =(14)Kennesaw St.+5
Losses to tournament teams (6): (4)Indiana-2, =(5)Duke-7, =(3)Gonzaga-4, @(6)Creighton-17, @(2)Marquette-1, =(2)Marquette-14
Other losses (3): @DePaul-1, @Butler-2, Villanova-1

Overview: Xavier has a good consistency rating but it seems to be mostly due to the first half of the season when they actually were very consistent. Lately they've been a bit all over the place, upside and downside. Early losses to 4-seed Indiana, 5-seed Duke, and 3-seed Gonzaga were offset by wins over 9-seed West Virginia, 4-seed UConn, 6-seed Creighton, and 2-seed Marquette as part of an 11-game win streak through mid-January. Losses to DePaul and Butler harmed their résumé but they beat UConn and Creighton again, as well as 11-seed Providence twice in going 15-5 in Big East play with and finishing 2nd to Marquette in the conference tournament.

Point guard Souley Boum leads the team with 16.5 ppg and 4.4 assists. The Musketeers are a tall team with tall guards and 7-0 center Jack Nunge. 2nd leading scorer Zack Freemantle was lost in late January, roughly corresponding to the time when Xavier started to get less consistent—but kept playing just as well on average. It may mean a deeper run is less likely, though. The Musketeers were down 13 with 10 minutes to play and rallied for a 72-67 win Jerome Hunter scoring 24 points.

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Season overview: Pittsburgh

Wins vs. tournament teams (7): (16)Fairleigh Dickinson+22, @(7)Northwestern+29, @(11)N.C. State+8, (4)Virginia+3, (5)Miami FL+3, =(11)Mississippi St.+1, =(6)Iowa St.+18
Losses to tournament teams (5): (9)West Virginia-25, =(12)VCU-4, @(5)Duke-8, @(5)Miami FL-2, =(5)Duke-27
Other losses (6): =Michigan-31, @Vanderbilt-1, Clemson-1, Florida St.-7, @Virginia Tech-7, @Notre Dame-7

Overview: Pittsburgh peaked early. Not really early, when they lost to 9-seed West Virginia 81-56 and to Michigan 91-60. But several games later, after they had destroyed 7-seed Northwestern 87-58 on the road, and won early ACC games vs. 11-seed NC State and 4-seed Virginia, as well as pre-season #1 North Carolina. Things continued to go well until the loss to Florida State at home; even though they rallied for a 6-game win streak, it included most of the ACC's worst teams—Louisville, FSU, BC. Another bad loss—Notre Dame—hit them late, and they played their worst in losing 96-69 to Duke in the ACC tournament. They barely made the Big Dance and made the most of it by beating fellow 11-seed Mississippi State, however.

Blake Hinson leads the team with 15.5 points and 6.1 rebounds per game. Pitt raced to a 22-2 lead over iowa State and won 59-41 with Nelly Cummings scoring 13.

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Game Analysis: Both teams are in the top 25 on offense, but play defense well outside the top 50. The difference is in degree—Xavier plays top 10 offense while Pitt's D is below the top 100. Still, that means each side of the court is a mismatch in favor of the team with the ball, so in that respect it's pretty even.

What can Pitt do to maximize their offensive advantage while minimizing their defensive deficiency? The obvious answer is three-point shooting. The Panthers shoot the three very well and very often, and Xavier doesn't defend it all that well. That could level the playing field. It's why Pitt is so inconsistent—their gameplay follow their 3 point shooting.

Of course, Xavier shoots 3's even better that Pitt, but not as often; that's because they are almost as good on 2-pointers relatively. It's a big reason they're so consistent—they don't rely on one type of shot like Pitt does.

Clearly, though, if both teams play like their first round game? Pitt wins in a walk. Or their last 2 games, for that matter.

Vegas Line:

Xavier by 5 1/2

Power rating: spread

Xavier by 5.2

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Xavier: 62.3%
Pitt: 37.7%

3-seeds beat 11-seed about 64% of the time so Xavier's odds here line up pretty well with history. The Strength power rating agrees almost spot on with Vegas, too. Not much to add here.

Bottom line: If Pitt makes their threes, Xavier can do the same. You have to expect Pitt to shoot 3s well and Xavier to shoot both the 2 and the three poorly to expect a Pitt win. We're expecting Xavier, of course, to shake off their problems from the last two games, otherwise they're going home fast.

Final prediction: Xavier 80, Pittsburgh 75

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 18, 2023 at 01:30 PM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (1) Alabama vs. (8) Maryland

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Alabama Crimson Tide
Seed: 1
Record: 30-5
Conference: SEC

vs.

Maryland Terrapins
Seed: 8
Record: 22-12
Conference: Big Ten

Date: Saturday, March 18
Time: 9:40 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Birmingham, AL
Channel: TBS

Between star players with groin injuries and 16-seeds winning games, everything is happening in twos.

Alabama Maryland

Power Ratings

Strength:          #1        Strength:          #27
Median: #2 Median: #25
Markov: #5 Markov: #15
Pomeroy:           #2             Pomeroy:           #22
   Offense: #19 Offense: #35
   Defense: #3 Defense: #33
BPI:               #2 BPI:               #20
LRMC:    #3 LRMC:              #25

Other Measures:

SOS: #9 SOS: #48
Tempo (Offense): #5 Tempo (Offense): #247
Consistency:       #363 Consistency:       #303
Str + Reliability: #17 Str + Reliability: #38
Str + Potential: #1 Str + Potential: #24

2nd half season:   #1 2nd half season:   #17
Last 6: #7 Last 6: #46
Injury Mod Rank:   #2 Injury Mod Rank:   #26

MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #4 Sweet 16: #41

Alabama is a fully proper 1-seed with several top rankings by their name. #1 in Strength. #2 in Pomeroy and BPI, #3 in LRMC. The Markov Chain ranking interestingly puts the Tide only #5, probably because their high variability affects them there. Alabama has the #3 defense and still a top 20 offense, a tough combination to beat. Maryland has 8-seed written all over them, but once an 8-seed beats a 9-seed they're a big problem for any 1-seed. The same Markov chain method that downgrades Alabama has Maryland up at #15, the closest the two teams get.

The tempo difference between the teams is pretty great, mostly because Alabama is top 5 in offensive tempo (and overall tempo). Maryland is slow on offense and overall is even slower at #321—their "defensive tempo" is #362, 2nd slowest in the nation. But it's Alabama's defense that is the more effective, #3 in the nation.

Neither team is consistent so the outcome will be more in doubt that most games between teams of similar quality. In fact Alabama is the most inconsistent team in the country, but part of that is from having several out-of-this-world performances. So, a lot of the volatility is upside volatility but not all of it.

Alabama only ranks #7 in the last six games due to a four-game stretch where the team was out of sorts following the Brandon Miller gun-transportation revelations. They were playing like the #71 team over that 4-game span but over the last 4 games they played like themselves again. With 2 of the "old" games still in the mix they rank #7.

Season overview: Alabama

Wins vs. tournament teams (15): =(7)Michigan St.+11, @(1)Houston+6, (8)Memphis+3, @(11)Mississippi St.+11, (6)Kentucky+26, @(8)Arkansas+15, @(7)Missouri+21, (11)Mississippi St.+3, @(9)Auburn+8, (8)Arkansas+3, (9)Auburn+OT, =(11)Mississippi St.+23, =(7)Missouri+11, =(7)Texas A&M+19, =(16)Texas A&M Corpus Christi+21
Losses to tournament teams (4): =(4)Connecticut-15, (3)Gonzaga-10, @(4)Tennessee-9, @(7)Texas A&M-6
Other losses (1): @Oklahoma-24

Overview: In the pre-SEC season the Tide beat 7-seed Michigan State, 1-seed Houston, and 8-seed Memphis while losing to 4-seed UConn and 3-seed Gonzaga. To be fair, this tally does could Mississippi State three times and they didn't make the final 64, so you could say reduce the total by three now.

The Tide went 16-2 in the SEC, 19-2 if you count the conference tournament, only losing to 4-seed Tennessee and 7-seed Texas A&M on the road. The other loss along the way? A 93-69 beatdown by Oklahoma, a Big Twelve team that didn't make the Big Dance. It shows that even the best teams are vulnerable to any team ranked in the top 50 or so.

Freshman Brandon Miller is the team's star, averaging 19.6 points per game and 8.3 rebounds. Attention came his way due to a fatal shooting where it was revealed he had transported the murder weapon. Following this revelation the Tide played four very uncharacteristically poor games (games #28 to #31: they beat South Carolina in overtime, Arkansas by 3 at home, Auburn at home in overtime, and lost to Texas A&M 67-61) but Miller himself seemed unaffected, scoring a career high 41 in the first game. The guy has ice in his veins so don't expect the pressure of the NCAA tournament to get to him.

Of course just after saying that, Miller goes 0-5 for 0 points in the first game, citing a groin injury, as well as death threats. Nick Pringle led with 19 against TAMU-CC.

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Season overview: Maryland

Wins vs. tournament teams (7): =(5)Miami FL+18, (9)Illinois+5, (4)Indiana+11, (10)Penn St.+6, (1)Purdue+14, (7)Northwestern+16, =(9)West Virginia+2
Losses to tournament teams (7): =(4)Tennessee-3, (2)UCLA-27, @(8)Iowa-14, @(1)Purdue-3, @(7)Michigan St.-5, @(10)Penn St.-1, =(4)Indiana-10
Other losses (5): @Wisconsin-5, @Michigan-35, @Rutgers-14, @Nebraska-OT, @Ohio St.-11

Overview: Maryland started strong but hit turbulence near the start of the Big Ten season, losing non-conference tilts to 4-seed Tennessee and 2-seed UCLA, and hitting bottom with an 81-46 loss at Michigan. They recovered pretty well, finishing 9-5 over their last 14 games but 3 of their last six wins were over conference doormat Minnesota.

Jahmir Young leads four starters in double figures with 16.1 ppg. Against West Virginia it was Julian Reese who led with 17 points and 9 rebounds.

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Game Analysis: Tempo control is going to be a big part of this game. Alabama is #5 overall in tempo, while Maryland is #321. And on defense the Terps are #362, meaning they like to "lock down" their opponent for a long possession. Alabama likes short possessions on offense. Something's gotta give.

Brandon Miller is in the news again, this time for a groin injury (what is it with star players and groin injuries all of a sudden? That's like, two). He played limited minutes in Alabama's opening win, which was a smart coaching move because why risk him against a 16-seed (unless he's needed, apparently now 16-seeds are winning left and right, it's like, twice now). Miller played 19 minutes and didn't score on 0-5 shooting, the first time he's seemed "shook" since the gun revelations. He has security now due to death threats, that might be part of it. To make the Final Four they need Miller; if he is out due to injury, or danger, or another revelation, then Alabama's run comes to an end. We're assuming he plays and will watch the situation.

Maryland's best argument for beating Alabama is that they're better than Oklahoma, and the Sooners routed the Tide. That was in Norman, however, and this game is being played about an hour from Tuscaloosa.

Vegas Line:

Alabama by 9

Power rating: spread

Alabama by 11.5

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Alabama: 72.9%
Maryland: 27.1%

We're giving home court advantage to Alabama for playing in-state; without it the Strength power rating's spread would be around 8 points, so it looks like Vegas is giving them an extra point rather than the whole shebang. The Terps have a better shot, according to the game-comparison system, than the average 8-seed who clocks in at around 21%. That's a product of both teams' volatility.

Bottom line: Just when we thought the Brandon Miller issue was being totally ignored, it seems to have come back and he might have more problems with it being on a bigger stage. We'll see what happens. Until they prove otherwise, Alabama looks like they're playing well regardless and will be in the Sweet Sixteen.

Final prediction: Alabama 77, Maryland 60

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 18, 2023 at 01:33 AM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (2) UCLA vs. (7) Northwestern

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

UCLA Bruins
Seed: 2
Record: 30-5
Conference: Pac-12

vs.

Northwestern Wildcats
Seed: 7
Record: 22-11
Conference: Big Ten

Date: Saturday, March 18
Time: 8:40 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Sacramento, CA
Channel: TNT

Everyone's just watching for the next big seed to fall. Will it be UCLA at the claws of Northwestern?

UCLA Northwestern

Power Ratings

Strength:          #3        Strength:          #38
Median: #5 Median: #35
Markov: #1 Markov: #33
Pomeroy:           #2             Pomeroy:           #42
   Offense: #25 Offense: #109
   Defense: #1                     Defense: #13
BPI:               #4 BPI:               #41
LRMC:    #2 LRMC:              #46

Other Measures:

SOS: #25 SOS: #38
Tempo (Offense): #201 Tempo (Offense): #308
Consistency:       #83 Consistency:       #347
Str + Reliability: #1 Str + Reliability: #67
Str + Potential: #8 Str + Potential: #23

2nd half season:   #3 2nd half season:   #39
Last 6: #2 Last 6: #40
Injury Mod Rank:   #3 Injury Mod Rank:   #38

MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: #2 Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #7 Sweet 16: #39

UCLA is a very strong 2-seed, ranking in the top 4 in all the major power ratings and snagging the #1 spot in the Markov ratings, #1 in defensive efficiency per Pomeroy, and #1 when Strength and Consistency are combined to forecast a deep tournament run. They're #2 overall in Pomeroy and in the LRMC. That's the profile of a 1-seed.

Northwestern is fairly seeded as a 7-seed, but there's disparity between their play on offense and defense. Their defense can possibly rattle UCLA's offense; then the challenge becomes: how do they score when on offense against the #1 defense in the nation? Their low Consistency ranking is a possible antidote to UCLA's steady play. If the Wildcats have an outlier upside game they have a shot, and UCLA will be less likely to have a big up or down game.

UCLA is on the new MegaScreen's very short list of possible Final Four teams. UCLA originally had an Injury Mod ranking of #14 for both Jaylen Clark and Adem Bona being gone but neither played last game and their rating without them isn't significantly different, especially given the small sample. So for now, we assume UCLA is UCLA.

Season overview: UCLA

Wins vs. tournament teams (7): @(8)Maryland+27, =(6)Kentucky+10, (10)USC+2, @(11)Arizona St.+12, (11)Arizona St.+18, (2)Arizona+9, =(15)UNC Asheville+33
Losses to tournament teams (5): =(9)Illinois-9, =(3)Baylor-5, @(2)Arizona-6, @(10)USC-13, =(2)Arizona-2
Other losses (0): None

Overview: UCLA suffered early losses to 9-seed Illinois and 3-seed Baylor, both in the Continental Tire Main Event in Las Vegas. They won 14 straight after that, beating 8-seed Maryland 87-60 on the road and 6-seed Kentucky along the way. Then they dropped two more games, to 2-seed Arizona and 10-seed USC, before running off another 12 straight. They dropped the last game to 2-seed Arizona on a missed 3-pointer. The Bruins lost no home games this year.

Veterans Jaime Jacquez (17.3 ppg, 8.1 rebounds) and Tyger Campbell (13.6 points, 4.7 assists) have been the team leaders for the last four years and provide just about the best complementary play in college basketball today. Third-leading scorer Jaylen Clark was lost for the year a few games ago; his absence is the only question mark for this team's NCAA tournament run. So far they're doing ok, dispatching UNC Asheville with east behind 17 points from both Jacquez and Amari Bailey.

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Season overview: Northwestern

Wins vs. tournament teams (7): @(7)Michigan St.+7, (9)Illinois+13, @(4)Indiana+1, (1)Purdue+6, (4)Indiana+2, (8)Iowa+20, =(10)Boise St.+8
Losses to tournament teams (7): =(9)Auburn-1, (11)Pittsburgh-29, @(8)Iowa-16, @(9)Illinois-4, @(8)Maryland-16, (10)Penn St.-OT, =(10)Penn St.-OT
Other losses (4): Ohio St.-16, Rutgers-3, @Michigan-7, Michigan-17

Overview: Northwestern wasn't on anyone's radar (as usual) to begin the season so after they waltzed through five early opponents and lost to Auburn and Pitt, nothing seemed unusual. But then they beat 7-seed Michigan State in an early Big Ten contest. At 10-2 they fell to Ohio State but then beat 9-seed Illinois and 4-seed Indiana back to back. By then it was clear Northwestern had to be taken seriously, and the Wildcats alternated between winning and losing almost randomly but along the way scored a win over 1-seed Purdue as part of a 5-game win streak. The Wildcats lost 4 of their last 5 but had long secured their bid.

Northwestern's stingy defense is the key to their success; they guard the 2-point goal well and get a lot of blocks and steals, forcing longer shots from opponents. On offense point guard Boo Buie leads the team with 17.1 points and 4.5 assists per game. Buie had 22 in the 75-67 win over Boise State.

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Game Analysis: It's kind of hard to imagine Northwestern being competitive on offense when you see UCLA is #1 on defense and Northwestern can barely shoot the ball to save its life. But if the Wildcats shoot bad against everyone—and still get wins due to their defense—then maybe it doesn't matter how good UCLA's defense is. Northwestern just has to do the same thing to UCLA—shut them down on defense.

Can they do it? It's a 50/50 contest on that side of the court. UCLA doesn't shoot very well themselves, about average at best, but they rebound really well. That's what gives them an edge when they have the ball—2nd shots. Between that, and let's face it, their defense is expected to shut down Northwestern—UCLA is a clear favorite.

Northwestern needs to rock the boat somehow. Making threes is the way to do it, it's the answer to every problem in basketball. Make your threes and you win, miss them and you lose if that's what you depend on. And one reason UCLA is so even-keel is that they don't rely on the three very much at all.

Vegas Line:

UCLA by 7 1/2

Power rating: spread

UCLA by 9.0

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

UCLA: 71.3%
Northwestern: 28.7%

As I've noted in other 2 vs. 7 and 2 vs 10 matchups, the 7-seed has a lower expectation of winning than a 10-seed does when facing a 2-seed, 30% for 7-seeds vs. 37% for 10-seeds. Northwestern is almost right on track with a 7-seed's expectations.

Bottom line: Northwestern has a wild puncher's chance, made tougher by UCLA's steady-state gameplay over almost the entire year. That kind of consistency is what gets a team to the Final Four, barring too much Madness in March.

Final prediction: UCLA 67, Northwestern 56

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 18, 2023 at 12:08 AM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (2) Texas vs. (10) Penn State

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Texas Longhorns
Seed: 2
Record: 27-8
Conference: Big Twelve

vs.

Penn State Nittany Lions
Seed: 10
Record: 23-13
Conference: Big Ten

Date: Saturday, March 18
Time: 7:45 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Des Moines
Channel: CBS

There are two big seed-matchup mysteries in the 2nd round. One, why do 8-seeds beat 1-seeds twice as often as 9-seeds? And two, why do 10-seeds have more success against 2-seeds than 7-seeds?

Texas Penn State

Power Ratings

Strength:          #7        Strength:          #44
Median: #8 Median: #46
Markov: #6 Markov: #26
Pomeroy:           #5             Pomeroy:           #33
   Offense: #17 Offense: #13
   Defense: #11                     Defense: #95
BPI:               #5 BPI:               #46
LRMC:    #6 LRMC:              #36

Other Measures:

SOS: #8 SOS: #30
Tempo (Offense): #53    Tempo (Offense): #309
Consistency:       #277 Consistency:       #59
Str + Reliability: #6 Str + Reliability: #26
Str + Potential: #5 Str + Potential: #67

2nd half season:   #4 2nd half season:   #43
Last 6: #1 Last 6: #15
Injury Mod Rank:   #6 Injury Mod Rank:   #45

MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #22 Sweet 16: NA

Texas has 2-seed written all over their power rating stats—everything is between 5 and 8 in all the surveyed power ratings. Their Offense and Defense both rank in the top 20. Even their schedule strength is #8 due to playing in the murderous Big Twelve. They've upped it in the last several games, ranking #4 for the 2nd half of the season in Strength and #1 over the last six games. In other words, they're playing like a 1-seed right now.

Penn State's full-season stats hardly matter right now because they're on a pretty epic run themselves. On offense they're every bit as good as Texas while their defense clearly lags. But they're improving. The two teams play completely different tempos and slowing the game down will be to Penn State's advantage.

Interestingly, Texas does not make the cut for the MegaScreen's Final Four rankings. And they're only #22 in the Sweet Sixteen, despite showing up on the Elite Eight screen at #11.

Season overview: Texas

Wins vs. tournament teams (13): (3)Gonzaga+19, (6)Creighton+5, (13)Louisiana+28, (6)TCU+4, @(9)West Virginia+8, (3)Baylor+5, @(3)Kansas St.+3, (9)West Virginia+34, (6)Iowa St.+18, (1)Kansas+16, =(6)TCU+6, =(1)Kansas+20, =(15)Colgate+20
Losses to tournament teams (7): =(9)Illinois-OT, (3)Kansas St.-13, @(6)Iowa St.-11, @(4)Tennessee-11, @(1)Kansas-8, @(3)Baylor-9, @(6)TCU-2
Other losses (1): @Texas Tech-7

Overview: Texas showed early they would be a force to be reckoned with, beating 3-seed Gonzaga 93-74 and early AP poll darling 6-seed Creighton as well. They lost to 9-seed Illinois in overtime however, just before coach Chris Beard was dismissed. Texas played their worst game that very day, an overtime home win over Rice (game 9). Rodney Terry coached the team from that moment forward and by and large they didn't miss a beat, battling through the tough-as-nails Big Twelve. They split with 3-seed Baylor and 3-seed Kansas State as well as 1-seed Kansas before beating the Jayhawks in the rubber match to finish the season strong.

Point guard Marcus Carr leads four starters in double figures with 15.9ppg; he also leads in assists and steals. In the win over Colgate Sir'Jabari Rice was the leader with 23 points.

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Season overview: Penn State

Wins vs. tournament teams (11): =(13)Furman+5, @(9)Illinois+15, (8)Iowa+4, (4)Indiana+19, (9)Illinois+12, @(7)Northwestern+OT, (8)Maryland+1, =(9)Illinois+3, =(7)Northwestern+OT, =(4)Indiana+4, =(7)Texas A&M+17
Losses to tournament teams (5): (7)Michigan St.-9, (1)Purdue-13, @(1)Purdue-20, @(8)Maryland-6, =(1)Purdue-2
Other losses (8): =Virginia Tech-2, @Clemson-OT, @Michigan-10, @Wisconsin-3, @Rutgers-20, @Nebraska-9, Wisconsin-OT, Rutgers-3

Overview: Penn State gave little indication early that they were an NCAA tournament team, starting 6-3 with losses to Virginia Tech, Clemson, and Michigan State, thought they took the Tigers into double overtime on the road. They beat Illinois on the road and Iowa at home but lost 8 of their next 11 and were 14-11 with a month to go. Then the turnaround started, with wins over 9-seed Illinois, 7-seed Northwestern, 8-seed Maryland, Illinois again (to complete a 3-game sweep), Northwestern again (2-game sweep), and 4-seed Indiana. In the end Penn State had 10 wins over tournament teams to only 5 losses, pretty incredible for a 10-seed but there's also those 8 non-tournament losses.

Penn State's Jalen Pickett is the key to their offense's success; the 6-4" point guard is one of the nation's best players, averaging 17.9 points per game, and leads the team with 7.3 rebounds, 6.7 assists, and 1 steal per game. The Lions are by far the most experienced team in the field, ranking #1 per KenPom with a staggering 4.07 years of experience on average! They used that experience to beat Texas A&M 76-59 behind Andrew Funk's 27 points.

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Game Analysis: Penn State has been steady as a rock and playing at a high level recently. They upped their game even more against Texas A&M but to beat Texas they'll need some help from the Longhorns, who are playing better than anyone in the nation right now. Texas is quite a bit more volatile performance-wise than Penn State and the Lions need to force their tempo on the game to throw Texas off theirs.

As we noted last time, Penn State has a style on offense and defense. On offense they don't rebound and they don't get to the foul line. They just take their time to get a good shot, and shoot the ball—very often a 3—and hope it goes in. They are nearly dead last in offensive rebounds and getting to the line. But it works, as they're in the top 15 in offense.

On defense they don't try to get steals or blocks, they just rebound the ball (fairly well) and get on with their next offensive possession. Rinse and repeat. It doesn't work as well on the defensive side because teams tend to shoot fairly well against them and they aren't in the top 50 in rebounding. But the whole formula is working lately.

Texas defends shots well but not staggeringly so, and they'll need to do something extra to defend the 3-point shots that will be raining down. They have a big advantage when they're on offense and need to use it get Penn State out of their rhythm. If they get a lead things will be hard for Penn State to mount a comeback with their slow offense.

Vegas Line:

Texas by 5 1/2

Power rating: spread

Texas by 7.5

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Texas: 69.9%
Penn State: 30.1%

For some reason 10-seeds have a lot more luck with 2-seeds than 7-seeds do. 7-seeds have won just under 30% against 2-seeds while 10-seeds have won a solid 37%. This is over 84 games for the former and 54 for the latter so it's not a tiny sample. It seems like it's persisting too because in the last two tournaments 7-seeds are 0-2 and 10-seeds are 2-2 against the 2-seed.

So Penn State's odds look like the typical 7-seed's odds instead of a 10-seed's odds. Normally when a team like Penn State is on a run you look at smaller samples and they look like the winner. But in this case Texas is on a run, too. The only sample that shows Penn State winning is a 1-game sample—the last game played.

Bottom line: To win Penn State needs to keep the magic rolling. And they really could do it. I'm committed to Texas, having them in my brackets beating Texas A&M here. But this is a live dog in Penn State, and both teams are playing their best so anything can happen. I call for Texas to survive a scare.

Final prediction: Texas 70, Penn State 67

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 17, 2023 at 11:00 PM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (1) Houston vs. (9) Auburn

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Houston Cougars
Seed: 1
Record: 32-3
Conference: American

vs.

Auburn Tigers
Seed: 9
Record: 21-12
Conference: SEC

Date: Saturday, March 18
Time: 7:10 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Birmingham, AL
Channel: TBS

If Houston wants to reach the Final Four in Houston, they have to get past Auburn in Birmingham.

Houston Auburn

Power Ratings

Strength:          #2        Strength:          #28
Median: #1 Median: #32
Markov: #2 Markov: #35
Pomeroy:           #1             Pomeroy:           #29
   Offense: #11 Offense: #48
   Defense: #4                     Defense: #29
BPI:               #1 BPI:               #27
LRMC:    #1 LRMC:              #31

Other Measures:

SOS: #87 SOS: #18
Tempo (Offense): #324 Tempo (Offense): #121
Consistency:       #207 Consistency:       #318
Str + Reliability: #2 Str + Reliability: #43
Str + Potential: #3 Str + Potential: #22

2nd half season:   #5 2nd half season:   #23
Last 6: #20 Last 6: #53
Injury Mod Rank:   #2(1) Injury Mod Rank:   #32

MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: #1 Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #1 Sweet 16: #21

Houston looks like a 1-seed rankings-wise, in fact they dominate the power ratings other than Strength where they are #2, and the Markov chain where they are also runner-up. The Cougars are almost top 10 in both offense and defense per Pomeroy. Auburn isn't nearly as lofty obviously as a 9-seed but they are close enough to be a serious threat to win the game. Their tough schedule has prepared them to face top teams night after night, whereas Houston had a long stretch of so-so competition in the American Athletic Conference.

Of course, their first opponent doesn't really count as "top competition" but the point is that Auburn is ready for anything. Houston's slow tempo is not what Auburn wants to play, though they are hardly lightning fast. And both teams have sagged over the last 6 games, Auburn in particular, but it's a different story over just the last four games (their 32=point loss to Kentucky is the 5th game). Houston's big issue is the injury to Marcus Sasser, and how it's affecting them. We don't have a reliable ranking for Houston without him, since the last game was awful and he played, but was re-injured. Let's just say the aren't nearly as good without him or when he isn't 100%. By that metric, for the last 2 games Houston ranks around 85th.

Houston ranks at #1 in both the Final Four and Sweet Sixteen lists, making them one of the favorites in the MegaScreen for the national title. But they need a fully healthy Marcus Sasser to get there.

Season overview: Houston

Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (12)Oral Roberts+38, (16)Texas Southern+35, (13)Kent St.+5, (5)Saint Mary's+5, @(4)Virginia+8, (8)Memphis+8, @(8)Memphis+2, =(16)Northern Kentucky+11
Losses to tournament teams (2): (1)Alabama-6, =(8)Memphis-10
Other losses (1): Temple-1

Overview: Houston's chart is a tall wall of blue pierced by the occasional poor red game. The highlights: beating 12-seed Oral Roberts 83-45 (game 3); beating 13-seed Kent State just 49-44 (game 6); beating almost-NCAA team Norfolk State 100-52 (game 7); beating 5-seed Saint Mary's 53-48 (game 8); beating 4-seed Virginia 69-61 on the road (game 12). The losses were to 1-seed Alabama at home (after leading most of the game), Temple at home, and Memphis on a neutral court. They also beat the Tigers twice in the last 8 games. It doesn't appear the final game was a trend, unless of course Marcus Sasser is out for good. What happened there was as much (or more) a product of Memphis' play as it was Houston's.

Sasser leads the team with 17.1 ppg. Third-leading scorer J'Wan Roberts (10.4) leads with 7.8 rebounds per game. Against Northern Kentucky Sasser played 14 minutes all in the first half, scoring 5 points; Jarace Walker led with 16.

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Season overview: Auburn

Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (16)Texas Southern+16, =(7)Northwestern+1, (15)Colgate+27, (8)Arkansas+13, (11)Mississippi St.+6, (7)Missouri+33, (4)Tennessee+9, =(8)Iowa+8
Losses to tournament teams (10): =(8)Memphis-9, @(10)USC-3, (7)Texas A&M-16, @(9)West Virginia-3, @(4)Tennessee-3, @(7)Texas A&M-5, (1)Alabama-8, @(6)Kentucky-32, @(1)Alabama-OT, =(8)Arkansas-3
Other losses (2): @Georgia-12, @Vanderbilt-2

Overview: At one point in the season Auburn was 16-3 overall and 6-1 in the SEC. Remember that? Not many people do since the Tigers finished 20-12 and 10-8 and lost in the first round of the SEC tournament, a 4-9 finish that counts in my book as a "collapse". There were signs before it, though; the Tigers didn't really beat anyone in the pre-conference season other than 7-seed Northwestern (16-seed Texas Southern and 15-seed Colgate hardly count). They fell to the two other best teams they played, 8-seed Memphis and 10-seed USC. And they had a really bad loss at Georgia in their 2nd SEC game.

6-10 forward Johni Broome leads the Tigers with 14.0 points and 8.4 rebounds per game. Against Iowa he had 19 points and 12 rebounds.

**************************************************************

Game Analysis: Houston's win over Northern Kentucky sure didn't inspire confidence in a Final Four run without Marcus Sasser—or even with him. He didn't play the 2nd half and the team limped, like Sasser, to the finish line against a 16-seed. Not that they were in control of the game while he was in the lineup, which suggests he wasn't nearly 100%. Without him, they look directionless.

Auburn on the other hand came to life finally against Iowa and have now played four decent games in a row (though only 2-2 over the span). In the 2nd round any team is a danger to any other team; there are no truly shocking upsets, certainly not if you're facing a team that is a 12-seed or better.

Don't think that playing so close to home didn't have anything to do with Auburn's win over the Hawkeyes. The Tigers pulled out of a tailspin in front of a close-to-home crowd. They'll have that advantage again against Houston, and if it's close the crowd will smell blood.

Vegas Line:

Houston by 5 1/2

Power rating: spread

Houston by 4.6

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Houston: 61.4%
Auburn: 38.6%

We're giving Auburn home court advantage and our spread via the Strength power rating is about a point less than Vegas figures. So maybe 5.5 is right and we shouldn't give full home court. In any case, Auburn's odds are way ahead of the historical odds for a 9-seed to beat a 1-seed, which are a dismal 8%, believe it or not. Why 9-seeds can't beat 1-seeds while 8-seeds have almost a 1 in 5 chance I'll never know. If no home court is given Auburn's odds drop to 31% which are still significant.

Bottom line: Sasser says he's going to play—again—but who knows how effective he'll be. If they play like they did the last two games they get killed. But I had Houston advancing and in any case don't have full confidence in Auburn playing two good games in a row.

Final prediction: Houston 63, Auburn 62

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 17, 2023 at 09:35 PM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (7) Missouri vs. (15) Princeton

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Missouri Tigers
Seed: 7
Record: 25-9
Conference: SEC

vs.

Princeton Tigers
Seed: 15
Record: 22-8
Conference: Ivy League

Date: Saturday, March 18
Time: 6:10 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Sacramento, CA
Channel: TNT

Showdown of the Tigers in Sacramento.

Missouri Princeton

Power Ratings

Strength:          #55      Strength:          #111
Median: #70 Median: #115
Markov: #53 Markov: #141
Pomeroy:           #47             Pomeroy:           #98
   Offense: #9 Offense: #108
   Defense: #163 Defense: #106
BPI:               #61 BPI:               #110
LRMC:    #63 LRMC:              #138

Other Measures:

SOS: #56 SOS: #199
Tempo (Offense): #43    Tempo (Offense): #241
Consistency:       #332 Consistency:       #124
Str + Reliability: #74 Str + Reliability: #108
Str + Potential: #40 Str + Potential: #119

2nd half season:   #53 2nd half season:   #106
Last 6: #14 Last 6: #77
Injury Mod Rank:   #65 Injury Mod Rank:   #111

MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: NA Sweet 16: NA

After beating a team whose numbers outclassed theirs pretty (despite being the better seed) easily, it's Missouri's turn to be the favorite. The Missouri Tigers power rating numbers are generally 50 rungs ahead of the Princeton Tigers across the board. The one obvious exception is defense, where Missouri is a dreadful at #163 while Princeton's own defense improved almost 30 spots after the Arizona game and now stands at #106. With an offense at #106, this gives Princeton a fighting chance—if their own defense can hold up against Missouri's offense. And maybe it can, since Arizona had a similar offensive efficiency going into their first-round game.

Missouri has faced a much tougher schedule—Arizona was only the 2nd team in the field Princeton had faced—and having back-to-back games against a tough opponent isn't something Princeton is used to. And while Princeton's recent play rating is going up, Missouri's went up to #14 as a result of the previous "6th game" dropping off.

Season overview: Missouri

Wins vs. tournament teams (9): (16)Southeast Missouri St.+7, =(9)Illinois+22, (6)Kentucky+14, (8)Arkansas+3, (6)Iowa St.+17, @(4)Tennessee+1, (11)Mississippi St.+OT, =(4)Tennessee+8, =(10)Utah St.+11
Losses to tournament teams (8): (1)Kansas-28, @(8)Arkansas-6, @(7)Texas A&M-18, (1)Alabama-21, @(11)Mississippi St.-11, @(9)Auburn-33, (7)Texas A&M-9, =(1)Alabama-11
Other losses (1): @Florida-9

Overview: Following a disastrous 2022 season, Missouri rode a very easy early schedule to 9-0 but hit a 95-67 wall against 1-seed Kansas at home. The Tigers rebounded to beat 9-seed Illinois and even topped 6-seed Kentucky before the losses started to mount. Despite this, they got in some good wins, over 6-seed Iowa State in the SEC/Big Twelve Challenge, and 4-seed Tennessee not once but twice. They won 5 of 6 at the end but three of those—Georgia, LSU, and Ole Miss—were more akin to their early foes, not the cream of the SEC crop. Getting to the tournament seems like a miracle, though, compared to how they did last year.

Missouri's offense is guard-powered and led by Kobe Brown's 15.8 points per game. Another key guard, Isaiah Mosley, played sporadically for the team this season and they are better with him in the lineup; he's been out for personal reasons for a month now and there's no indication he'll play in the tournament. Despite his continued absence the Tigers handled Utah State 76-65 with DMoi Hodge's 23 points leading the way.

**************************************************************

Season overview: Princeton

Wins vs. tournament teams (1): =(2)Arizona+4
Losses to tournament teams (1): =(13)Iona-6
Other losses (7): Hofstra-6, @Navy-1, Delaware-7, @Brown-2, @Yale-22, @Dartmouth-7, Yale-OT

Overview: Princeton's season started with two losses but when faced with easier foes they won 8 straight. Then they met 13-seed Iona and lost. And the pattern repeated, whenever Princeton faced someone in the top 100 they would lose, and then recovered with wins over lesser opponents. After two losses to Yale (#67 in Pomeroy) the Tigers finally got a solid win and it gave them an NCAA berth. Beating 2-seed Arizona gave them their first win over a tourney team this year. Wow.

6-8" Princeton forward Tosan Evbuomwan leads the team in scoring with 15.0 ppg but also in assists with 4.8 per game as well as in steals. Evbuomwan had 15 points in the 59-55 upset of Arizona.

**************************************************************

Game Analysis: Missouri is playing a team a lot worse than the one they just beat, so they'll probably win easily right? The same can be said for Princeton though—Missouri is not much compared to Arizona. Same level of offensive play but far worse defense, so Princeton should score a whole lot more this time around, right?

The argument probably makes more sense for Princeton because they managed to do what seemed impossible: limit Arizona to under 60 points. If they can do that to Arizona they can do it to Missouri, and they'll have a much easier time when operating on offense.

After all, Missouri is the more up-and-down team here. The odds that they replicate their good performance against Illinois are about 50/50. Princeton on the other hand is feeling it now.

And somebody has got to exploit Missouri's terrible rebounding sooner or later!

Vegas Line:

Missouri by 7

Power rating: spread

Missouri by 5.8

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Missouri: 64.8%
Princeton: 35.2%

There aren't many examples of 15-seeds playing anyone other than 2-seeds; Princeton is the 10th 15-seed to get past the first round; 5 have played 7-seeds and 5 played 10-seeds. After the last two years, 15-seeds now hold a 3 to 2 edge over 7-seeds. That means Princeton's 35% chance to win is lower than the 60% historical, small-sample odds. Interestingly no 15-seed has beaten a 10-seed, they are 0 for 5.

Bottom line: I didn't have either team here so I can throw caution to the wind. I like the argument that Princeton is taking a step down in competition more than the (equally valid) idea that Missouri has an easier task this time. 15-seeds are starting to storm the Sweet Sixteen with regularity—it's happened the last two years, Princeton can make it three.

Final prediction: Princeton 69, Missouri 64

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 17, 2023 at 08:55 PM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (1) Kansas vs. (8) Arkansas

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Kansas Jayhawks
Seed: 1
Record: 28-7
Conference: Big Twelve

vs.

Arkansas Razorbacks
Seed: 8
Record: 21-13
Conference: SEC

Date: Saturday, March 18
Time: 5:15 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Des Moines, IA
Channel: CBS

The weakest 1-seed in the field meets a strong 8-seed.

Kansas Arkansas

Power Ratings

Strength:          #9        Strength:          #19
Median: #10 Median: #30
Markov: #10 Markov: #36
Pomeroy:           #9             Pomeroy:           #20
   Offense: #29 Offense: #51
   Defense: #7                     Defense: #16
BPI:               #10 BPI:               #14
LRMC:    #11 LRMC:              #23

Other Measures:

SOS: #1 SOS: #16
Tempo (Offense): #54    Tempo (Offense): #143
Consistency:       #299 Consistency:       #205
Str + Reliability: #14 Str + Reliability: #21
Str + Potential: #6 Str + Potential: #28

2nd half season:   #8 2nd half season:   #40
Last 6: #16 Last 6: #50
Injury Mod Rank:   #8 Injury Mod Rank:   #20

MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: #4 Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #16 Sweet 16: #17

The Jayhawks got a 1-seed as usual but are they one of the four best teams? That's debatable, and the power ratings say no. They rank either #9, #10, or #11 in all the rankings here, which would make them at least a 2-seed. It's their Schedule Strength of #1 that put them on the 1-line. The Jayhawk defense is elite but on offense they're borderline top 25 at best.

Arkansas is a very strong 8-seed, more like a 5- or a 6-, and definitely good enough to be within striking distance of Kansas, especially in the BPI where they are right behind the Jayhawks (these are all pre-tournament numbers; Kansas is up to #9 and Arkansas down to #15 as of today). The Razorbacks certainly play good enough defense to slow down Kansas, who has top ten defensive play that will slow down Arkansas greatly. Look for a lower-scoring game, even as both teams like to push the tempo to a degree.

Both teams have played killer schedules and are ready for a big-time game like this one. Neither has played their best basketball lately, but both were very impressive in their opening round game so that point may be moot. Kansas carried a parenthetical Injury downgrade since two starters were questionable, but both played in the first round game so we've removed the asterisk. Arkansas' injury modification stands, but they now are playing nearly as well as they were when they had Trevon Brazile.

Season overview: Kansas

Wins vs. tournament teams (16): =(5)Duke+5, =(11)N.C. State+6, (16)Texas Southern+32, @(7)Missouri+28, (4)Indiana+22, @(9)West Virginia+14, (6)Iowa St.+2, @(6)Kentucky+9, (3)Kansas St.+12, (2)Texas+8, (3)Baylor+16, @(6)TCU+5, (9)West Virginia+2, =(9)West Virginia+17, =(6)Iowa St.+13, =(16)Howard+28
Losses to tournament teams (7): =(4)Tennessee-14, @(3)Kansas St.-OT, (6)TCU-23, @(3)Baylor-6, @(6)Iowa St.-15, @(2)Texas-16, =(2)Texas-20
Other losses (0): None

Overview: Kansas beat 11 tournament teams and didn't lose to a single non-tourney foe. That's pretty consistent play. But overall they've had patches of inconsistency and unfortunately some of that came at the end and might impact their chances of repeating as champion. Kansas roared to 16-1 losing only to 4-seed Tennessee 64-50, while beating 5-seed Duke, 11-seed NC State, and bludgeoning 7-seed Missouri 95-67 (game 10). They followed that by beating 4-seed Indiana 84-62 and they might have been the best team in the country at this time. But after a 5-0 conference start they lost three straight games, including a terrible 83-60 home loss to 6-seed TCU. They pulled out of that after losing to 6-seed Iowa State and beating 2-seed Texas they put together a great 7-game win streak where they beat 4 tourney teams. In the end they lost to Texas twice but played well between those losses.

Kansas is led by national player of the year candidate Jalen Wilson's 20.1 points and 8.4 rebounds. Third-leading scorer Kevin McCullar (10.7ppg) might miss the tournament. Without him (a 2-game sample) the Jayhawks play like the #50 team in the nation. Again, a 2-game sample which includes the final Texas game, one of their worst performances. #2 scorer Gradey Dick is having back problems, too, and might miss the game, though he played throughout the Texas game so we assume he will be fine.

Turns out we were right about Gradey Dick, he played and scored 19 points, 2nd only to Wilson's 20. And McCullar also played in the 96-68 blowout of Howard.

**************************************************************

Season overview: Arkansas

Wins vs. tournament teams (7): =(5)San Diego St.+OT, (15)UNC Asheville+34, (7)Missouri+6, (7)Texas A&M+11, @(6)Kentucky+15, =(9)Auburn+3, =(9)Illinois+10
Losses to tournament teams (11): =(6)Creighton-3, @(9)Auburn-13, (1)Alabama-15, @(7)Missouri-3, @(3)Baylor-3, (11)Mississippi St.-6, @(7)Texas A&M-6, @(1)Alabama-3, @(4)Tennessee-18, (6)Kentucky-9, =(7)Texas A&M-6
Other losses (2): @LSU-3, @Vanderbilt-13

Overview: Arkansas started strong with 11 wins in 12 games, beating 5-seed San Diego State in overtime but losing to 6-seed Creighton. The Razorbacks hit a rough patch corresponding with losing two players and dropped five out of six, but recovered to win 5 of 6 afterwards. They were 4-10 against tournament-bound SEC foes and played Baylor close on the road. They ended with another skid, losing 4 of 5, but played very well in the Auburn win and the 3-point Alabama road loss.

Five Razorbacks have averaged in double figures over the season, but one of them (Trevor Brazile) is injured and another (Nick Smith) missed a lot of the season but is back. Ricky Council IV leads the team at 15.9ppg. Council led with 18 points—making 11 of 12 free throws—in the 73-63 win over Illinois.

**************************************************************

Game Analysis: Arkansas played a great game against Illinois, better than I was expecting from the Razorbacks who seemed to peak even before the SEC season. But they've had outstanding games before in the midst of a slump, but it doesn't last The question is can they sustain playing this well?

And even if they can, does that get them a win over Kansas necessarily? They Jayhawks trounced Howard with ease, pulling away with a late first-half run, and now they seem to be in good health again—other than coach Bill Self, who is recovering from a heart procedure. So far they've played very well under assistant Norm Roberts, at least in 3 out of 4 games.

Both teams on defense seem to match up well with the other team's offense. Arkansas doesn't shoot 3s much or very well and Kansas defends the 2-pt zone well. Kansas also prefers 2 point shots and Arkansas defends well there, too. The Razorbacks tend to foul on defense a lot. But in general both teams play great defense.

The edge goes to Kansas for playing better offense overall. They aren't great at 3-pointers but it's more of a weapon for them for sure. Both squads shoot the 2 well, but Kansas can stretch the Razorback defense.

Vegas Line:

Kansas by 3

Power rating: spread

Kansas by 3.5

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Kansas: 60.3%
Arkansas: 39.7%

Pretty tight odds on this one, with Vegas and Strength very close as usual. But 1-seeds are expected to beat 8-seeds over 80% of the time, not 60%. That's mostly due to Kansas being a weak (in terms of power ratings) 1-seed. These are similar for the odds of a 3-seed to beat a 6-seed.

Bottom line: Both teams had a great performance in the first round, so there's really no reason to change my initial notion that Kansas would advance to the Sweet Sixteen—especially now that health concerns are behind them. But they're still the most vulnerable 1-seed, and they'll be tested here.

Final prediction: Kansas 72, Arkansas 70

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 17, 2023 at 07:52 PM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (4) Tennessee vs. (5) Duke

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Tennessee Volunteers
Seed: 4
Record: 24-10
Conference: SEC

vs.

Duke Blue Devils
Seed: 5
Record: 27-8
Conference: ACC

Date: Saturday, March 18
Time: 2:40 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Orlando, FL
Channel: CBS

Two teams with two 7-footers? Sounds like the dream of 1970s-80s hoops.

Tennessee Duke

Power Ratings

Strength:          #4        Strength:          #21
Median: #4 Median: #29
Markov: #12 Markov: #22
Pomeroy:           #5             Pomeroy:           #21
   Offense: #49 Offense: #42
   Defense: #2                     Defense: #24
BPI:               #3 BPI:               #16
LRMC:    #10 LRMC:              #21

Other Measures:

SOS: #42 SOS: #60
Tempo (Offense): #231 Tempo (Offense): #294
Consistency:       #345 Consistency:       #340
Str + Reliability: #11 Str + Reliability: #46
Str + Potential: #2 Str + Potential: #12

2nd half season:   #10 2nd half season:   #25
Last 6: #17 Last 6: #3
Injury Mod Rank:   #24 Injury Mod Rank:   #23

MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: #6 Final 4: #7
Sweet 16: #8 Sweet 16: #10

Tennessee is a very strong 4-seed, that's clear from the power ratings where they look more like a 1-seed or 2-seed. #4 in Strength, #5 in Pomeroy, #3 in BPI (these have slipped a bit since the Louisiana game). Only the LRMC has the Vols at roughly a 4-seed level, #10. Interestingly our own Markov chain implementation also puts the Volunteers lower, at #12. But overall the Volunteers have been one of the best teams this year, and our MegaScreen rankings put them in the mix for the Final Four with the Sweet Sixteen almost a given.

But their play over the last month or so hasn't been at a 1- or 2-seed level, which is why they fell to a 4-seed. They rank only #10 for the 2nd half of the season and #16 over the last six games. Already slumping, Tennessee lost point guard Zakai Zeigler in the opening minutes against Arkansas, and their Injury Mod Rank of #24 reflects how they play in the 5-game sample without him.

Duke on the other hand looks like a fair-value 5-seed but has been overachieving lately. Over the last several games they've been better each time out and their win over Oral Roberts was no exception—it's pushed them to #3 in recent play. So while Tennessee's injury to Zeigler has brought them down to Duke's regular level, Duke is playing above that level now.

Both teams have been very inconsistent this year, but right now it appears they are playing on opposite ends of their own spectrum.

Season overview: Tennessee

Wins vs. tournament teams (10): =(10)USC+OT, =(1)Kansas+14, =(8)Maryland+3, (11)Mississippi St.+34, @(11)Mississippi St.+11, (2)Texas+11, (9)Auburn+3, (1)Alabama+9, (8)Arkansas+18, =(13)Louisiana+3
Losses to tournament teams (7): @(2)Arizona-5, (6)Kentucky-7, (7)Missouri-1, @(6)Kentucky-12, @(7)Texas A&M-5, @(9)Auburn-9, =(7)Missouri-8
Other losses (3): Colorado-12, @Florida-13, @Vanderbilt-1

Overview: Tennessee was one of the very best teams all season but ran into turbulence in February and may have taken a fatal blow in March. Despite losing basically at home to Colorado, 78-66, the Vols beat 10-seed USC and 1-seed Kansas to start 14-2 (they also lost to 2-seed Arizona on the road in that stretch). The home loss to then-struggling Kentucky was another aberration, and soon they were 18-3, fresh off a win over 2-seed Texas in the SEC/Big Twelve Challenge, and ranked #2 in the AP poll. From there the Vols lost to Florida and Vanderbilt, and Missouri at home, and were never the same. Occasional great wins—like beating 1-seed Alabama—were followed by losses, reflecting their status as one of the country's most inconsistent teams. Defensively they were always sound, even fantastic, but on offense they often struggled.

Santiago Vescovi leads the team with 12.9 points per game but in 2nd place is point guard Zakai Zeigler with 10.7 points, 5.4 assists, and 2.0 steals per game. He will miss the tournament however as he recovers from a torn ACL. Our Injury Correction rankings show the Vols aren't nearly as good without him, and the Vols first round game did nothing to assuage those worries as they beat Louisiana 58-55 after blowing an 18 point lead. Tyreke Key led with 12 points.

**************************************************************

Season overview: Duke

Wins vs. tournament teams (9): =(3)Xavier+7, =(8)Iowa+12, (11)Pittsburgh+8, (5)Miami FL+2, (11)N.C. State+4, =(11)Pittsburgh+27, =(5)Miami FL+7, =(4)Virginia+10, =(12)Oral Roberts+23
Losses to tournament teams (5): =(1)Kansas-5, =(1)Purdue-19, @(11)N.C. State-24, @(5)Miami FL-22, @(4)Virginia-OT
Other losses (3): @Wake Forest-11, @Clemson-8, @Virginia Tech-3

Overview: Duke's season has been up and down in their first year under Jon Scheyer. But at the end it's all sunshine and rainbows as the team seems to get better with each game. Will it end in another Final Four berth for the Blue Devils?

Duke beat 3-seed Xavier and 8-seed Iowa early, but also lost to Kansas and Purdue—losses which seem excusable given that both those teams ended up as 1-seeds. But the Blue Devils lost to some pretty mediocre teams in ACC competition, like Wake Forest, Clemson, and Virginia Tech. They hit a low at Miami, losing 81-59, but soon after started their 9-game-and-counting win streak. It started slow vs. poor teams like Notre Dame and Louisville but they beat four tournament teams in the last 5 games.

7-foot Center Kyle Filipowski leads the team with 15.4 points and 9.0 rebounds per game, and he's only one of two starting 7-footers on the nation's tallest team. Yet it was 6-2 guard Jeremy Roach leading the way with 26 points in the Oral Roberts blowout.

**************************************************************

Game Analysis: This game should make for some great interior battles with Duke's two 7-footers going up against Tennessee's (almost) two 7-footers inside. Of course, Duke's Kyle Filipowski isn't a center but a forward who shoots plenty of three-pointers, and Tennessee's 7-1 Uros Plavsic and 6-11 Jonas Aidoo generally split court time, so it isn't quite the fantasy scenario from decades ago when 7-foot centers were all the rage with Hakeem, Patrick Ewing, and Ralph Sampson dominating college hoops.

Were both teams at full strength this would be a great game. Tennessee would undoubtedly be favored to win this game if played any time through January. The Vols defense is still great, but the offense—questionable all season—has really slumped without Zeigler. And the team was already hitting some bumps on the road throughout February with inconsistent play.

Meanwhile Duke is firing on all cylinders. The Blue Devils went through their own rough patch and had starters out here and there but since mid-February—really, since the overtime loss at Virginia, which was a strong performance—they've been great and getting better every time out. If they continue this upward climb they'll be in the Final Four and favored to win it.

If there were ever a time two teams were crossing in different directions this is it.

Vegas Line:

Duke by 3 1/2

Power rating: spread: Full season / last 5 games

Tennessee by 5.0 / Duke by 11.9

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Tennessee: 60.8% / 20.0%
Duke: 39.2% / 80.0%

As expected Duke is the favorite by the oddsmakers, while the Strength power rating shows that, for the full-season, Tennessee would be around a 5 point favorite. The Vegas line is normally very close to Strength's estimate, so we have an 8 or 9 point swing in sentiment here. Cross-comparing all games of the season, Tennessee should be about a 61% favorite, a higher percentage than normal for 4-seeds against 5-seeds (around 55%).

But if we look at the relevant last 5 games, where Zakai Zeigler was gone and also while Duke is surging, the Blue Devils become an overwhelming favorite, winning 80% of the 25 comparisons and becoming a 12 point favorite. This is, of course, the worst you can make the comparison look (unless you clip it to fewer than 5 games which makes little sense) but even for longer periods Duke has been better. It's mostly due to Tennessee's crash without Zeigler.

Bottom line: It's not even close how much more impressive Duke was in their first round game than Tennessee. Every fear of UT fans about how they'd do without Zeigler is coming true while the Blue Devils are getting better every game. I would consider a Tennessee win a major upset at this point, and in any case I had Tennessee exiting before the Sweet Sixteen all along.

Final prediction: Duke 68, Tennessee 51

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 17, 2023 at 06:33 PM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

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NCAA tournament

March 18, 2023

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (3) Gonzaga vs. (6) TCU

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (4) Indiana vs. (5) Miami

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (9) Florida Atlantic vs. (16) Fairleigh Dickinson

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (3) Baylor vs. (6) Creighton

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (4) UConn vs. (5) St. Mary's

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (2) Marquette vs. (7) Michigan State

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (3) Kansas State vs. (6) Kentucky

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (3) Xavier vs. (11) Pittsburgh

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (1) Alabama vs. (8) Maryland

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (2) UCLA vs. (7) Northwestern

March 17, 2023

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (2) Texas vs. (10) Penn State

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (1) Houston vs. (9) Auburn

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (7) Missouri vs. (15) Princeton

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (1) Kansas vs. (8) Arkansas

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (4) Tennessee vs. (5) Duke