SportsRatings: College Basketball

2023 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (3) Gonzaga vs. (4) UConn

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Gonzaga Bulldogs
Seed: 3
Record: 31-5
Conference: West Coast

vs.

UConn Huskies
Seed: 4
Record: 28-8
Conference: Big East

Date: Saturday, March 25
Time: 8:49 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Las Vegas, NV  
Channel: TBS

 

A 3-seed and a 4-seed that are both as good as 2-seeds.

     Gonzaga                            UConn

Power Ratings

Strength:          #5              Strength:          #4 
   Median:   #7                       Median:   #6 
   Markov:   #8                       Markov:   #2 
Pomeroy:           #6              Pomeroy:           #3
   Offense:  #1                       Offense:  #3
   Defense:  #73                      Defense:  #13
BPI:               #7              BPI:               #5
LRMC:              #8              LRMC:              #4

Other Measures:

SOS:               #65             SOS:               #46    
Tempo (Offense):   #33             Tempo (Offense):   #237
Consistency:       #286            Consistency:       #222
Str + Reliability: #6              Str + Reliability: #3
Str + Potential:   #4              Str + Potential:   #5

2nd half season:   #3              2nd half season:   #6
NCAA Tournament:   #4              NCAA Tournament:   #1

MegaScreen                         MegaScreen 
  Winner:          NA                Winner:          NA
  Final Four:      #5                Final Four:      #6

In just about every number here, 4-seed UConn is just a bit ahead of 3-seed Gonzaga. Strength, 1 place; BPI, 2 places; Pomeroy, 3 places; LRMC, 4 places. The one area where the Zags are better is offense, and UConn is right behind them, and miles better on defense.

UConn had a "lull" in the middle of the season where they underperformed and lost games, and Gonzaga did better overall since the midpoint. But in the three tournament games it's not close, even if Gonzaga is #4 among surviving teams.

According to the MegaScreen neither of these teams can win it all without setting a new low bar in a key area. For Gonzaga that would be defense where they started #76. For UConn, it's the fact that they have no NCAA wins in the prior three tournaments. But both teams were considered strong contenders for a Final Four spot, though being in the same Region makes it difficult to be a favorite.

Season overview: Gonzaga

• Wins vs. tournament teams (10): =(7)Michigan St.+1, (6)Kentucky+16, =(3)Xavier+4, (13)Kent St.+7, @(1)Alabama+10, (5)Saint Mary's+9, =(5)Saint Mary's+26, =(14)Grand Canyon+12, =(6)TCU+3, =(2)UCLA+3
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (4): =(7)Michigan St.+1, =(3)Xavier+4, @(1)Alabama+10, =(2)UCLA+3
• Losses to tournament teams (4): @(2)Texas-19, =(1)Purdue-18, =(3)Baylor-1, @(5)Saint Mary's-OT
• Other losses (1): Loyola Marymount-1

Overview: Gonzaga is always one of the teams to watch, especially in the pre-conference season when they mix it up with some of the nation's best. This year the Zags: beat 7-seed Michigan by one point aboard an aircraft carrier; fell to 2-seed Texas 93-74; and beat 6-seed Kentucky 88-72. And that was just in the first four games! In another 3-game stretch the Bulldogs lost to Purdue, 84-66, beat 3-seed Xavier 88-84 (both in one of the Portland Phil Knight tournaments), and fell to Baylor by a point playing in South Dakota for some reason. Their last big non-conference challenge was overall 1-seed Alabama, whom they beat 100-90 in Birmingham, making them 1-1 against 1-seeds this season.

In the WCC Gonzaga coasted as usual waiting for the big matchup with 5-seed Saint Mary's but were tripped up by Loyola Marymount on the way, breaking their 76-game home win streak (they won the rematch on the road 108-65). They lost in overtime to the Gaels on the road, beat them at home 77-68, then thrashed them 77-51 in their West Coast Conference tournament final.

Senior Drew Timme, who seemingly has been around forever, is the team's leader. He averages 20.9 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. Three other Zags average in double figures including Julian Strawther who led against Grand Canyon with 28. Timme had 28 in the 84-81 win over TCU that got the Zags to the Sweet Sixteen for the 8th straight time. Strawther hit a late 3 that killed UCLA, 79-76 behind Timme's 36 points.

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Season overview: Connecticut

• Wins vs. tournament teams (9): =(1)Alabama+15, =(6)Iowa St.+18, (6)Creighton+9, (2)Marquette+15, (11)Providence+18, =(11)Providence+7, =(13)Iona+24, =(5)Saint Mary's+15, =(8)Arkansas+23
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): =(1)Alabama+15, (6)Creighton+9, =(8)Arkansas+23
• Losses to tournament teams (6): @(3)Xavier-10, @(11)Providence-12, @(2)Marquette-6, (3)Xavier-3, @(6)Creighton-3, =(2)Marquette-2
• Other losses (2): St. John's-11, @Seton Hall-1

Overview: As mentioned UConn was the best team in the country until late December; they had beaten 1-seed Alabama 82-67and 6-seed Iowa State in Portland and raced to a 14-0 start. But around game 13 they downshifted a gear it seems; the wins over Georgetown (84-73) and Villanova (74-66) at home weren't dominant. Sure enough, losses followed, most but not all to tournament teams. In all they lost 6 of 8 before slowly recovering their mojo. Finally at the end they put together another solid win streak of six games that ended in a 2-point loss to 2-seed Marquette. Have they truly regained their early season form? The first two games of the tournament say yes, and it's really hard to argue after the Arkansas game.

6-9 forward Adam Sanogo is the team's leader in points (16.8) and rebounds (7.3). The Huskies are a tall team, who often have every player on the court at 6-5 or over and also have a 7-2 backup center. UConn beat Iona behind Sanogo's 28 points (on 13 of 17 shooting). The Huskies were even more impressive against St. Mary's, winning 70-55 against the tough 5-seed; this time Sanogo had 24 on 11 of 16 shooting. Jordan Hawkins led with 24 including 9 of 9 free throws in the 88-65 blowout of Arkansas.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: My pre-tournament question about UConn is whether they'd recovered the form that had them at #1—in the AP poll and all the power ratings—or whether it was just a temporary, late-season surge of a few games. With each passing game of the tournament, the answer appears to be yes, UConn is playing as well as they did before the Big East season started.

The question for Gonzaga has been, how deep can they go before their poor defense catches up with them? It almost did against UCLA, where the Bruins took a 13-point halftime lead, but the Zags offense is so good they pulled out a win against a great team. UConn's offense is even better than UCLA's so that might make things worse; on the other hand, UConn's defense isn't quite UCLA's level, so the Zags have a chance to keep rolling due to their offensive play.

Gonzaga's shooting is top ten from both outside and inside the arc, while UConn's defense is top 20 in both zones. Rebounding looks about even on this side of the court. The one thing that stands out is UConn's propensity to foul, but the Zags only offensive weakness is poor free throw shooting (just under 70%).

The Huskies shoot 76% from the line, and shoot well overall though not nearly as well as Gonzaga. But on defense the Zags are terrible defenders, allowing over 50% in 2-point range and over 35% from threes. 

Vegas Line:

UConn by   2

Power rating: spread

UConn by   1.1

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Gonzaga:     45.3% 
UConn:       54.7% 

Showing just how close Vegas hews to power rating pronouncements, the sportsbooks favor UConn just as the Strength power rating does, by a bit more in fact. It's clearly a close game though, and our odds give Gonzaga over a 45% chance to win. Interestingly of the 5 times 3-seeds have faced 4-seeds, the 4-seed has won 3 times, or 60%.

Bottom line: UConn is back to their early season form and is a real threat to win it all now. They've played a better game than Gonzaga each round so far.

Final prediction: UConn 84, Gonzaga 75

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

2023 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (3) Kansas State vs. (9) Florida Atlantic

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Kansas State Wildcats
Seed: 3
Record: 26-9
Conference: Big Twelve

vs.

Florida Atlantic Owls
Seed: 9
Record: 34-3
Conference: C-USA

Date: Saturday, March 25
Time: 6:09 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: New York, NY  
Channel: TBS

 

Only one 9-seed has ever made the Final Four, can FAU be the second?

     Kansas State                       Florida Atlantic

Power Ratings

Strength:          #20             Strength:          #23
   Median:   #28                      Median:   #26
   Markov:   #23                      Markov:   #24
Pomeroy:           #21             Pomeroy:           #17
   Offense:  #35                      Offense:  #26
   Defense:  #27                      Defense:  #29
BPI:               #30             BPI:               #33
LRMC:              #30             LRMC:              #16

Other Measures:

SOS:               #14             SOS:               #117    
Tempo (Offense):   #44             Tempo (Offense):   #82
Consistency:       #95             Consistency:       #120
Str + Reliability: #19             Str + Reliability: #23
Str + Potential:   #42             Str + Potential:   #46

2nd half season:   #23             2nd half season:   #40
NCAA Tournament:   #6              NCAA Tournament:   #8 

MegaScreen                         MegaScreen 
  Winner:           NA               Winner:           NA
  Final Four:      #11               Final Four:      #10

K-State needed overtime to advance and we've got another close one lined up for them. Florida Atlantic is neck and neck with the Wildcats in Strength and BPI and has pulled ahead in Pomeroy. In the pre-tournament LRMC they are way ahead. The offensive and defensive matchups are both very close, so it should be a very even game on both sides of the court.

It should also be an exciting game with a fast tempo as both teams push the pace to some extent. And both are consistent as well. The big difference between the two is experience playing top teams; K-State is used to playing tough teams back-to-back-to-back whereas FAU has had breathers against lesser competition all year. Will that be the difference? 

The MegaScreen has both teams as Final Four considerations on Selection Sunday, not as favorites but right around the top 10 possibilities among 68 teams. Now it's down to one or the other.

Season overview: Kansas State

• Wins vs. tournament teams (11): =(11)Nevada+OT, (9)West Virginia+OT, @(2)Texas+13, @(3)Baylor+OT, (1)Kansas+OT, (6)TCU+21, (6)Iowa St.+6, (3)Baylor+10, =(14)Montana St.+12, =(6)Kentucky+6, =(7)Michigan St.+OT
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): @(2)Texas+13, =(7)Michigan St.+OT
• Losses to tournament teams (6): @(6)TCU-14, @(6)Iowa St.-4, @(1)Kansas-12, (2)Texas-3, @(9)West Virginia-8, =(6)TCU-13
• Other losses (3): @Butler-12, @Texas Tech-8, @Oklahoma-14

Overview: Kansas State wasn't taken seriously early on. They needed overtime to beat 11-seed Nevada and lost to Butler, and their pre-Big Twelve schedule was pretty easy so going 11-1 didn't impress. They beat 9-seed West Virginia in overtime at home but it was the road win at Texas, 116-103, that caught people's attention, and wins over 3-seed Baylor and 1-seed Kansas (both in overtime) didn't hurt.

The 'Cats were 17-2 and hit some turbulence and lost 5 of 7, beating only Florida and 6-seed TCU in that span. But two of the losses were to Kansas and Texas, and K-State righted the ship with a 4-game win streak, adding wins over 6-seed Iowa State and another over Baylor while making quick work of both dangerous Oklahoma teams. They did disappoint a bit at the end, falling to West Virginia and then TCU 80-67 in one of their worst performances, but nothing comes easy in the Big Twelve.

Kansas State is led by forward Keontae Johnson with 17.7 points and 7.0 rebounds per game, while 5-8 point guard Markquise Nowell adds 16.8 points and 7.6 assists. Overall K-State is a very short team, #311 in the country in average height. Johnson had 18 and Nowell 17 in the win over Montana State. In the 75-69 win over Kentucky Nowell led with 27 and the Wildcats overcame a 19-4 deficit in offensive rebounds. Against Michigan State Nowell had an incredible 19 assists as the Wildcats won 98-93 in overtime.

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Season overview: Florida Atlantic

• Wins vs. tournament teams (4): (16)Northern Kentucky+15, =(8)Memphis+1, =(16)Fairleigh Dickinson+8, =(4)Tennessee+7
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): =(4)Tennessee+7
• Losses to tournament teams (0): None
• Other losses (3): @Mississippi-13, @UAB-9, @Middle Tennessee-4

Overview: FAU lost early and didn't lose for a long time after that. The road loss to Ole Miss was their last for 20 games. Admittedly there weren't many challenges along the way: Florida, South Alabama, North Texas, and UAB were their toughest tests, and they did get a tournament field win over 16-seed Northern Kentucky. But they won by big margins typically, keeping their power ratings high and tipping off observers that they were a team to keep track of. They lost on the road to UAB and Middle Tennessee and after the latter seemed to kick into high gear. Maybe they were unsure of getting an at-large bid and wanted some certainty? In any case their last 7 pre-Dance games are next-level.

Florida Atlantic spreads out the scoring, with leader Johnell Davis averaging 13.5 per game and 7 others topping 5.0 per game. They play a very short lineup with the exception of 7-1 center Vlad Goldin. Giancarlo Rosado made all six of his field goal attempts in leading the Owls with 15 points in the win over Memphis. Davis caught fire against Fairleigh Dickinson for 29 points as they held off the 16-seed 78-70. FAU got their biggest win of the year by far—and one of the biggest in the program's history—by beating Tennessee 62-55 behind Davis' 9 of 10 free throw shooting (15 points total). 

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Game Analysis: Despite the seedings this is a very tight game. 3-seed Kansas State has 9 losses in a killer schedule, while 9-seed FAU has 3 losses in a much easier one. In a 2-day turnaround K-State is much more familiar with playing tough opponents one after the other with few days in-between, as they played in the Big Twelve where every team was in the top 50 more or less. In Conference-USA, only FAU and one or two other teams (UAB and North Texas) were in the top 50 depending on what measure you use. That means the Owls have played from 5 to 7 games against top 50 foes and K-State has played around 20.

This game is not only very close overall but very close on both sides of the court. Their offensive vs. defensive stats are close and where FAU has a slight edge it's probably negligible due to the difference in schedule strength. The only clear advantage for FAU on offense is rebounding, where they excel despite being a shorter team (and are going up against a short team that doesn't rebound well on defense). But even that's hard to gauge because K-State is always the much shorter team in the Big Twelve. The Wildcats may find it easier to rebound than they have all year, or not.

For Kansas State an important advantage is free throw shooting—they shoot 75% to 71.5% for FAU. Not a huge difference but in a very close game that might be the one that matters. 

Vegas Line:

Kansas State by   2

Power rating: spread

Kansas State by   0.4

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Kansas State:        50.7% 
Florida Atlantic:    49.3% 

This is a razor-thin game, with K-State winning 657 times vs. 638 for FAU in the game-comparison system. Vegas has the Wildcats by 2 while Strength essentially predicts an overtime win for them. 3-seeds have defeated 9-seeds 100% of the time—2 out of 2—but when 9-seed Wichita State went to the Final Four in 2013 they beat 2-seed Ohio State, so maybe that's 1 in 3? 

Bottom line: K-State has been the shorter team all year yet has found a way to beat taller teams. FAU has been the short team all year too but generally plays inferior teams. K-State gains the most from this dynamic, but needs another overtime win (they're 5-0 this season) to reach the Final Four.

Final prediction: Kansas State 83, Florida Atlantic 80  OT

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

2023 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (2) Texas vs. (3) Xavier

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Texas Longhorns
Seed: 2
Record: 28-8
Conference: Big Twelve

vs.

Xavier Musketeers
Seed: 3
Record: 27-9
Conference: Big East

Date: Friday, March 24
Time: 9:45 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Kansas City, MO  
Channel: CBS

 

In a tournament full of top teams getting upset, the 2-seed and 3-seed made it through in the Midwest.

     Texas                              Xavier

Power Ratings

Strength:          #7              Strength:          #17
   Median:   #8                       Median:   #18
   Markov:   #6                       Markov:   #11
Pomeroy:           #5              Pomeroy:           #15
   Offense:  #15                      Offense:  #7
   Defense:  #10                      Defense:  #63
BPI:               #5              BPI:               #21
LRMC:              #6              LRMC:              #12

Other Measures:

SOS:               #8              SOS:               #22    
Tempo (Offense):   #60             Tempo (Offense):   #42
Consistency:       #246            Consistency:       #57
Str + Reliability: #4              Str + Reliability: #8
Str + Potential:   #6              Str + Potential:   #40

2nd half season:   #4              2nd half season:   #20
NCAA Tournament:   #11             NCAA Tournament:   #15
Injury Mod Rank:   #6              Injury Mod Rank:   #17

MegaScreen                         MegaScreen 
  Winner:          #4                Winner:          NA
  Final Four:      #7                Final Four:      #8

Texas is a solid 2-seed, ranking #5 in Pomeroy and the BPI, and both offense and defense in the top 15 which is very enviable. Xavier isn't a weak 3-seed really but isn't nearly as impressive in the power ratings, ranging from a pre-tourney #12 in LRMC (which is mirrored in SportsRatings' Markov ranking of #11), while the BPI has the Musketeers at just #21. Their offense is better than Texas at #7 but on defense their play is a liability at #63.

Both teams have played a very challenging schedule, and both run a pretty fast offense so the tempo of the game should be swift. While Xavier for the season is very steady and true, Texas is a bit unpredictable though not on the really wild side. Looking at their charts below those characterizations might have reversed over the last several weeks it seems. In any case, both teams did well enough in the 2nd half of the season and, among the remaining field of 16, underperformed their peers ranking at #11 and #15 for their 2-game stints. We'll take a look and see if that appears to be significant or just a small sample (which it is, for sure).

Texas shows up at #4 in the MegaScreen's list of possible winners but at #4, and a Final Four shortlist but at #7, suggesting neither is expected but both are possible. Xavier is right behind them on the Final Four list but is screened out of the Winner's column probably due to their poor defensive efficiency.

Season overview: Texas

• Wins vs. tournament teams (14): (3)Gonzaga+19, (6)Creighton+5, (13)Louisiana+28, (6)TCU+4, @(9)West Virginia+8, (3)Baylor+5, @(3)Kansas St.+3, (9)West Virginia+34, (6)Iowa St.+18, (1)Kansas+16, =(6)TCU+6, =(1)Kansas+20, =(15)Colgate+20, =(10)Penn St.+5
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): (3)Gonzaga+19, (6)Creighton+5, @(3)Kansas St.+3
• Losses to tournament teams (7): =(9)Illinois-OT, (3)Kansas St.-13, @(6)Iowa St.-11, @(4)Tennessee-11, @(1)Kansas-8, @(3)Baylor-9, @(6)TCU-2
• Other losses (1): @Texas Tech-7

Overview: Texas showed early they would be a force to be reckoned with, beating 3-seed Gonzaga 93-74 and early AP poll darling 6-seed Creighton as well. They lost to 9-seed Illinois in overtime however, just before coach Chris Beard was dismissed. Texas played their worst game that very day, an overtime home win over Rice (game 9). Rodney Terry coached the team from that moment forward and by and large they didn't miss a beat, battling through the tough-as-nails Big Twelve. They split with 3-seed Baylor and 3-seed Kansas State as well as 1-seed Kansas before beating the Jayhawks in the rubber match to finish the season strong.

Point guard Marcus Carr leads four starters in double figures with 15.9ppg; he also leads in assists and steals. In the win over Colgate Sir'Jabari Rice was the leader with 23 points. Dylan Disu made 14 of 20 shots for 28 points as the Longhorns held on to top Penn State, 71-66.

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Season overview: Xavier

• Wins vs. tournament teams (10): (9)West Virginia+10, (4)Connecticut+10, (6)Creighton+3, (2)Marquette+4, @(4)Connecticut+3, (11)Providence+OT, @(11)Providence+5, =(6)Creighton+22, =(14)Kennesaw St.+5, =(11)Pittsburgh+11
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (4): (4)Connecticut+10, (6)Creighton+3, @(4)Connecticut+3, =(6)Creighton+22
• Losses to tournament teams (6): (4)Indiana-2, =(5)Duke-7, =(3)Gonzaga-4, @(6)Creighton-17, @(2)Marquette-1, =(2)Marquette-14
• Other losses (3): @DePaul-1, @Butler-2, Villanova-1

Overview: Xavier has a good consistency rating but it seems to be mostly due to the first half of the season when they actually were very consistent. Lately they've been a bit all over the place, upside and downside. Early losses to 4-seed Indiana, 5-seed Duke, and 3-seed Gonzaga were offset by wins over 9-seed West Virginia, 4-seed UConn, 6-seed Creighton, and 2-seed Marquette as part of an 11-game win streak through mid-January. Losses to DePaul and Butler harmed their résumé but they beat UConn and Creighton again, as well as 11-seed Providence twice in going 15-5 in Big East play with and finishing 2nd to Marquette in the conference tournament.

Point guard Souley Boum leads the team with 16.5 ppg and 4.4 assists. The Musketeers are a tall team with tall guards and 7-0 center Jack Nunge. 2nd leading scorer Zack Freemantle was lost in late January, roughly corresponding to the time when Xavier started to get less consistent—but kept playing just as well on average. It may mean a deeper run is less likely, though. The Musketeers were down 13 with 10 minutes to play and rallied for a 72-67 win with Jerome Hunter scoring 24 points. Six Musketeers scored in double figures against Pitt in the 84-73 win.

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Game Analysis: Neither Texas nor Xavier has played particularly well in getting to the Sweet Sixteen. Texas beat Colgate by 20 and Penn State by just 5, while Xavier beat 14-seed Kennesaw State by just 5 and topped Pitt by 11. The weakest of these games is clearly Xavier's first one, where they trailed by 13 with 10 minutes to go. After leading most of the game Texas fell behind against Penn State with 5 minutes to go before a strong finish kept them in front for good.

It's hard to say which team should be more concerned. Xavier's first game was awful and in the 2nd game they let a huge lead bleed down but they won both. Texas didn't blow Colgate out but the never let them in the game, and they responded immediately when Penn State really threatened. Not good action on either team's part but they stepped up when they had to. They will probably both be at their best this round, but it doesn't bode well for the winner in the next round.

When Xavier's on offense it's a top ten vs. ten ten game. The Musketeers are #3 in the nation in 3-point percentage but shockingly they are just #320 in frequency of 3-point shot selection. They're good at 2s too but in this day and age it seems like shooting more 3s would be a good idea. In any case, it works for them. Texas has good defensive coverage and gets a lot of blocks and steals, too, something that could affect Xavier on offense. 

Texas should be able to exploit Xavier's general defensive weakness but though they have a slight edge in most stat areas (except rebounding) nothing really stands out as a total mismatch. Xavier doesn't defend the 3 well but that's not Texas' strength. Xavier is much better defending the 2, and that's what Texas is best shooting.

With the teams evenly matched when Xavier has the ball and Texas with a small edge when they have it, having a larger number of possessions is to the Longhorns' advantage, so that their edge emerges more reliably than in a low-possession game. In this case both teams play fast offense which will create a large number of possessions. 

Vegas Line:

Texas by   4

Power rating: spread

Texas by   4.4

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Texas:     63.3% 
Xavier:    36.7% 

The Vegas line and Strength power rating are nose-to-nose on the spread, and Texas' 63% chance to win is right on the historical odds for a 2-seed to beat a 3-seed, which is about 62%. In other words, the typical situation: the 2-seed is a clear but slim favorite, and an upset by the 3-seed is not a huge deal.

Bottom line: Texas is just a little better than Xavier and in a fast tempo game with a lot of possessions, that difference should make itself known over time.

Final prediction: Texas 79, Xavier 72

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

2023 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (6) Creighton vs. (15) Princeton

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Creighton Bluejays
Seed: 6
Record: 23-12
Conference: Big East

vs.

Princeton Tigers
Seed: 15
Record: 23-8
Conference: Ivy League

Date: Friday, March 24
Time: 9:00 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Louisville, KY  
Channel: TBS

 

Princeton hopes to become only the 2nd 15-seed to make the Elite Eight. The other? St. Peter's just last year.

     Creighton                          Princeton

Power Ratings

Strength:          #10             Strength:          #94
   Median:   #9                       Median:   #109
   Markov:   #13                      Markov:   #92
Pomeroy:           #12             Pomeroy:           #91
   Offense:  #24                      Offense:  #100
   Defense:  #13                      Defense:  #96
BPI:               #11             BPI:               #110
LRMC:              #14             LRMC:              #138

Other Measures:

SOS:               #10             SOS:               #165   
Tempo (Offense):   #133            Tempo (Offense):   #254
Consistency:       #154            Consistency:       #216
Str + Reliability: #7              Str + Reliability: #102
Str + Potential:   #16             Str + Potential:   #95

2nd half season:   #7              2nd half season:   #95
NCAA Tournament:   #7              NCAA Tournament:   #4
Injury Mod Rank:   #9              Injury Mod Rank:   #95

MegaScreen                         MegaScreen 
  Winner:          NA                Winner:          NA
  Final Four:      NA                Final Four:      NA

Creighton is only a 6-seed but they're one hell of a 6. Top ten in Strength and nearly top ten in the other power ratings, the Bluejays are top 25 in both offense and defense, something a lot of top 3 seeds can't say usually. They're also top ten in all the "recent play" stats.

Princeton is around #100 in most of the power ratings (and only #138 in LRMC which doesn't update during the tournament). On offense and defense they're similar—around #100. Creighton should have a big edge on both sides of the floor according to that, but when it come to the two games of the tournament they're #4 out of the 16 remaining teams.

Neither team gets respect from the MegaScreen. Creighton is out of the Final Four due to losing 6 straight games during the regular season, and Princeton is screened out for 16 different reasons! The Bluejays do pass the Elite Eight screen (at #9) while Princeton doesn't.

 

Season overview: Creighton

• Wins vs. tournament teams (6): =(8)Arkansas+3, (11)Providence+6, (3)Xavier+17, (4)Connecticut+3, =(11)N.C. State+9, =(3)Baylor+9
  
• Wins vs. tournament teams (3): =(8)Arkansas+3, ((3)Xavier+17, (4)Connecticut+3
• Losses to tournament teams (9): =(2)Arizona-2, @(2)Texas-5, =(11)Arizona St.-2, @(2)Marquette-11, @(4)Connecticut-9, @(3)Xavier-3, @(11)Providence-OT, (2)Marquette-2, =(3)Xavier-22
• Other losses (3): Nebraska-10, =BYU-3, @Villanova-12

Overview: Creighton was an AP poll darling early and at 6-0 they had already beaten 8-seed Arkansas. Then they went on a 6-games skid and all that goodwill was squandered. They really only played one bad game—the home loss to Nebraska—in that stretch which included three 2-seeds (Arizona, Texas, and Marquette) as well as 11-seed ASU, plus BYU in Las Vegas. Two more losses quickly followed to 4-seed UConn and 3-seed Xavier but they held up in the power ratings so their comeback didn't surprise anyone knowledgable. The Bluejays won 8 straight, beating 11-seed Providence, 3-seed Xavier, and 4-seed UConn before hitting a bit more turbulence in the tough Big East. After three solid wins they got beat 82-60 by Xavier in their final outing which stands as their worst game. But they've come back from adversity before.

7-1 center Ryan Kalkbrenner is the team's leading scorer at 15.4 ppg; he was gone for three games during Creighton's 6-game skid, and counting just the game he has played the Bluejays are a top ten team in Strength. The Bluejays bounced back from the big Xavier loss with a solid 72-63 win over NC State behind Kalkbrenner's 31 points (10 of 13 FG). Ryan Nembhard was the star against Baylor, scoring 30 points.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Princeton

• Wins vs. tournament teams (2): =(2)Arizona+4, =(7)Missouri+15
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): None
• Losses to tournament teams (1): =(13)Iona-6
• Other losses (7): Hofstra-6, @Navy-1, Delaware-7, @Brown-2, @Yale-22, @Dartmouth-7, Yale-OT

Overview: Princeton's season started with two losses but when faced with easier foes they won 8 straight. Then they met 13-seed Iona and lost. And the pattern repeated, whenever Princeton faced someone in the top 100 they would lose, and then recovered with wins over lesser opponents. After two losses to Yale (#67 in Pomeroy) the Tigers finally got a solid win and it gave them an NCAA berth. Beating 2-seed Arizona gave them their first win over a tourney team this year. Wow. And at the Sweet Sixteen, each game is better than the last.

6-8" Princeton forward Tosan Evbuomwan leads the team in scoring with 15.0 ppg but also in assists with 4.8 per game as well as in steals. Evbuomwan had 15 points in the 59-55 upset of Arizona. He had just 9 against Missouri but Ryan Langborg had 22 as the Tigers pulled away in the 2nd half for a strong 78-63 win.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: Only 3 15-seeds have made it to the Sweet Sixteen, and only one of those made it to the Elite Eight. In 2013 Florida Gulf Coast beat 2-seed Georgetown and 7-seed San Diego State before losing to 3-seed Florida 62-50. In 2021 Oral Roberts beat 2-seed Ohio State and 7-seed Florida before losing to 3-seed Arkansas, 72-70. Then last year St. Peter's beat 2-seed Kentucky, 7-seed Murray State, and 3-seed Purdue (67-64) before falling to 8-seed and eventual runner-up North Carolina. Note that all of them faced a 3-seed in the Sweet Sixteen rather than a 6-seed.

In terms of their finishing Kenpom ranking, Florida Gulf Coast was #105, Oral Roberts was #125, and St. Peter's #102. Right now Princeton is #91, better than all three. The teams the other 15-seeds played in the Sweet Sixteen ended up ranked #2 (loss), #18 (loss), and #14 (win). Creighton is ranked #12. Clearly FGCU faced one of the best teams in the country in Florida; Oral Roberts and St. Peter's faced a foe comparable to Creighton and the games were very close.

Note that in comparing the teams' shooting/rebounding stats, etc, we have to keep in mind that Creighton played a top ten schedule strength while Princeton played the #165 schedule. But here are the keys to the matchup. Whether Princeton has the ball or not they are at a great disadvantage in efficiency (read: quality). They shoot the ball pretty well but Creighton defends better. They rebound poorly on offense but very well on defense, so there shouldn't be many 2nd opportunities for either team. 

Creighton's ability to score 2-point baskets looks like the biggest edge, as well as shooting 78% free throws to Princeton's 71.5%. With 7-1 Ryan Kalkenbrenner the Bluejays should have a big edge inside, but Arizona had a much bigger height advantage and despite their bigs scoring 35 points the Wildcats lost. Princeton didn't even shoot great from the 3 there, just 16%. It's almost like they're doing some kind of magic.

Vegas Line:

Creighton by   9 1/2

Power rating: spread

Creighton by   11.1

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Creighton:     79.1% 
Princeton:     20.9% 

Only 3 15-seeds have made it this far and none of them has faced a 6-seed before so this is uncharted territory in seed vs. seed history. But 1 of the 3 that made it here went on to the Elite Eight, so we would assume that the odds against a 6-seed are at least that good (it's such a small sample that the actual odds could be anywhere 0 < x < 67%. But we'll go with 1 in 3. Or 21% works, too.

For comparison, the game-comparison system gave FCGU a 10.3% chance to beat Florida; Oral Roberts a 13.8% chance to beat Arkansas; and St. Peter's a 15.8% chance to beat Purdue—or 21.7% chance if you gave them home court for playing less than 100 miles from home while Purdue was over 700 miles away.

Bottom line: This looks like a 50/50 game, with a really good team going up against one that's currently on fire. The fact that Princeton has been a bit better than Creighton over two tournament games is striking since the Bluejays themselves have been so good. Creighton is more like a 3-seed than a 6-seed but St. Peter's blazed the trail last year as a 15-seed by beating the 3-seed to get to the Elite Eight and we'll take the 15-seed one more time.

Final prediction: Princeton 71, Creighton 70

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

2023 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (1) Houston vs. (5) Miami

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Houston Cougars
Seed: 1
Record: 33-3
Conference: American

vs.

Miami Hurricanes
Seed: 5
Record: 27-7
Conference: ACC

Date: Friday, March 24
Time: 7:15 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Kansas City, MO  
Channel: CBS

 

Fresh from blow-out wins, Houston and Miami face off.

     Houston                            Miami

Power Ratings

Strength:          #2              Strength:          #42
   Median:   #1                       Median:   #31
   Markov:   #1                       Markov:   #22
Pomeroy:           #1              Pomeroy:           #32
   Offense:  #9                       Offense:  #11
   Defense:  #4                       Defense:  #108
BPI:               #1              BPI:               #36
LRMC:              #1              LRMC:              #41

Other Measures:

SOS:               #86             SOS:               #77    
Tempo (Offense):   #324            Tempo (Offense):   #113
Consistency:       #198            Consistency:       #99
Str + Reliability: #2              Str + Reliability: #26
Str + Potential:   #3              Str + Potential:   #59

2nd half season:   #5              2nd half season:   #29
NCAA Tournament:   #10             NCAA Tournament:   #6
Injury Mod Rank:   #1              Injury Mod Rank:   #43

MegaScreen                         MegaScreen 
  Winner:          #1                Winner:          NA
  Final Four:      #1                Final Four:      NA

By the numbers this one isn't even close. Houston is #1 on all the power ratings except Strength where they're #2, and they're back to #1 when Marcus Sasser is 100% healthy which now seems to be the case. Both their offense and defense are in the top 10. Miami is anywhere from the low 30s (Pomeroy) to low 40s (Strength, LRMC) and while they essentially play top 10 offense, their defense isn't in the top 100.

The one number that gives Miami the edge is performance in the NCAA tournament so far, where Miami is #6 out of the remaining 16 and Houston is just #10. That isn't due to Houston's last game vs. Auburn—that game and Miami's win over Indiana rank similarly—but Houston's first game against Northern Kentucky where they won by just 11 points.

Despite Miami being in a Major conference the teams have played similarly tough schedules, as the ACC has some major cupcakes this year and Miami's pre-conference slate lacked power hitters. Not many people realize how slow Houston's offense is on average, but it's one of the slowest while Miami is moderate. Miami is also quite consistent, while Houston is average in that department. Both teams had injury worries going into the tournament—Marcus Sasser for Houston, and Norchad Omier for Miami—but neither missed a game and both seem fully healthy now.

The MegaScreen (after a tweak to make it less strenous) deemed Houston the most likely Final Four team and the most likely winner. Meanwhile Miami was screened out of Final Four consideration due to their weak defense, which ranked #133 in Pomeroy upon the start of the first round. It's up to #108 now but it's the starting number that matters, and they'd set a new low (or high) if they made it.

Season overview: Houston

• Wins vs. tournament teams (9): (12)Oral Roberts+38, (16)Texas Southern+35, (13)Kent St.+5, (5)Saint Mary's+5, @(4)Virginia+8, (8)Memphis+8, @(8)Memphis+2, =(16)Northern Kentucky+11, =(9)Auburn+17
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): None 
• Losses to tournament teams (2): (1)Alabama-6, =(8)Memphis-10
• Other losses (1): Temple-1

Overview: Houston's chart is a tall wall of blue pierced by the occasional poor red game. The highlights: beating 12-seed Oral Roberts 83-45 (game 3); beating 13-seed Kent State just 49-44 (game 6); beating almost-NCAA team Norfolk State 100-52 (game 7); beating 5-seed Saint Mary's 53-48 (game 8); beating 4-seed Virginia 69-61 on the road (game 12). The losses were to 1-seed Alabama at home (after leading most of the game), Temple at home, and Memphis on a neutral court. They also beat the Tigers twice in the last 8 games. It doesn't appear the final game was a trend, unless of course Marcus Sasser is out for good (and as of the Auburn game he appeared to be back to full health). What happened against Memphis was as much (or more) a product of Memphis' play as it was Houston's.

Sasser leads the team with 17.1 ppg. Third-leading scorer J'Wan Roberts (10.4) leads with 7.8 rebounds per game. Against Northern Kentucky Sasser played 14 minutes all in the first half, scoring 5 points, and was  re-injured; Jarace Walker led with 16. Down 10 at the half to Auburn, Houston rallied furiously to blow out the Tigers in the 2nd half, 50-23, behind Tramon Mark's 26, with Sasser playing 31 minutes and scoring 22 points. 

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Miami

• Wins vs. tournament teams (7): =(11)Providence+10, (11)N.C. State+7, (4)Virginia+2, (5)Duke+22, (11)Pittsburgh+2, =(12)Drake+7, =(4)Indiana+16
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): None
• Losses to tournament teams (5): =(8)Maryland-18, @(11)N.C. State-OT, @(5)Duke-2, @(11)Pittsburgh-3, =(5)Duke-7
• Other losses (2): @Georgia Tech-6, Florida St.-1

Overview: Miami popped off to a 13-1 start, beating 11-seed Providence in the pre-conference season as well as UCF and Rutgers while losing only to 8-seed Maryland. They beat 11-seed NC State and 4-seed Virginia before a stunning loss to 15-18 Georgia Tech started a 4-4 skid. All those losses were on the road and the Canes marched on, winning 7 straight including an 81-59 win over 5-seed Duke (the only tournament team in that stretch). Then came the FSU debacle, their first home loss, to a 9-23 team, on a last-second heartbreaking shot by their hated rival. It seems to have done something to them. 

The Hurricanes didn't play well at all at the very end. It wasn't just the Duke loss in the final game—where they lost Norchad Omier early in the contest—but all of their last four games: the home loss to Florida State, the 2-point home win over 11-seed Pitt, the 2-point win over Wake Forest—all were basically as bad as the Duke loss. Omier ended up playing during the NCAA tournament after all.

Miami's scoring leader is senior guard Isaiah Wong who leads the team with 16.2 points, 3.4 assists and 1.4 steals. Nigel Pack scored 21 in the win over Drake. The Hurricanes then blew away Indiana late, 85-69, behind Wong's 27 points. 

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: Both teams turned in strong performances to get to the Sweet Sixteen. Miami's first round game was a lot better than Houston's first round game, but Marcus Sasser wasn't nearly 100% for their first game.

The game will be decided by A) Whether Miami's great offense or Houston's tough defense carries the day on that side of the court and B) How greatly Houston can exploit their edge on the other side of the court vs. Miami's porous defense.

The first point get into the more interesting matchup of the day. Miami's offense is top ten worthy but Houston's defense is even better. In a given game either might have an advantage. Miami shoots well and Houston defends very well (#2 in the nation). Miami's advantage here is offensive rebounding. Houston's edge here is blocked shots (#1 in the nation) and steals.

Clearly Houston has the edge when they have the ball, but how much? Miami's defense allows a high shooting percentage and the Cougars shoot pretty well—especially within the arc where Miami's defense is worst. They'll have an even bigger rebounding edge than Miami does on offense. About the only thing Miami does well on defense is to not foul, but Houston shouldn't need a lot of points from the free throw line.

Miami's defense has been better during the tournament, as their rise in Kenpom defensive efficiency show. But it's clear Houston has a big edge when on offense. The other side of the court seems nearly even, but given Houston's defensive lockdown in the 2nd half against Auburn, even Miami may have trouble scoring on the Cougars.

The Auburn game looked like a turning point for Houston. After a bad loss to Memphis without Marcus Sasser and a lackluster first round win where he barely played and was re-injured, the Cougars fell behind a scrappy Auburn team in hostile territory but rallied to play possibly their best half of basketball of the entire season, winning the half 50-23. Based on that they look like they're headed for the Final Four, if not a championship.

Vegas Line:

Houston by   7

Power rating: spread

Houston by   10.1

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Houston:     77.4% 
Miami:       22.6% 

The Sweet Sixteen is a great equalizer. Oddsmakers figure that if a team got here, it's just about as good as the other teams that get here. Hence the spread you'd see in a regular-season game is compressed a bit. A 5-seed making the Sweet Sixteen gets a bit of an upgrade, and they're just 7 point underdogs instead of the 10 point underdogs they'd be normally. Our power rating gives a 10 point spread and computes a 77% chance for the Cougars to win, close to the 80%+ odds that a 1-seed historically has over a 5-seed.

Bottom line: Houston looks like they're on their way to the Final Four, which will put them in Houston with a great shot at a national title. Barring an out of this world performance Miami's run is coming to an end.

Final prediction: Houston 83, Miami 63

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

2023 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (1) Alabama vs. (5) San Diego State

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Alabama Crimson Tide
Seed: 1
Record: 31-5
Conference: SEC

vs.

San Diego State Aztec
Seed: 5
Record: 29-6
Conference: Mountain West

Date: Friday, March 24
Time: 6:30 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Louisville, KY  
Channel: TBS

 

A big step up in opponent for the Aztecs who beat a 12-seed and a 13-seed so far.

     Alabama                            San Diego St

Power Ratings

Strength:          #1              Strength:          #22
   Median:   #2                       Median:   #17
   Markov:   #4                       Markov:   #16
Pomeroy:           #2              Pomeroy:           #14
   Offense:  #18                      Offense:  #69
   Defense:  #3                       Defense:  #5
BPI:               #2              BPI:               #24
LRMC:              #3              LRMC:              #17

Other Measures:

SOS:               #9              SOS:               #59    
Tempo (Offense):   #6              Tempo (Offense):   #171
Consistency:       #362            Consistency:       #56
Str + Reliability: #15             Str + Reliability: #16
Str + Potential:   #1              Str + Potential:   #48

2nd half season:   #1              2nd half season:   #21
NCAA Tournament:   #2              NCAA Tournament:   #8
Injury Mod Rank:   #2              Injury Mod Rank:   #23

MegaScreen                         MegaScreen 
  Winner:          #3                Winner:          NA
  Final Four:      #3                Final Four:      #9

Alabama is #1 in Strength, #2 in Pomeroy and BPI, and #3 in LRMC. San Diego State is in the top 25 in all rankings but not in the top ten. Their #5 defense is roughly as good as Alabama's #3 defense, but on offense they are only #69 while the Tide are firmly in the top 25. It's going to be a great defensive ball game.

San Diego State is from the mid-Major Mountain West which is stronger than the ACC this year top to bottom. Still, their SOS is far below Alabama's, partly because the Tide are in the strong SEC but also they played a killer non-conference slate. The Tide are among the speediest teams on offense, as well as one of the most inconsistent teams in performance game-to-game (the two may be related). SDSU has a moderate-speed offense and is very consistent in their performances. If there's an upset to be had, it's more likely to occur because Alabama had an off game than the Aztecs found a new gear.

In the tournament so far Alabama has been great; San Diego State has been average for the surviving 16. Alabama is one of the MegaScreen's favorites to make the Final Four and is one of the more likely to win it all. The Aztecs are screened out of the winner's spot—probably due to poor offensive efficiency—but are a long shot to make the Final Four.

Season overview: Alabama

• Wins vs. tournament teams (16): =(7)Michigan St.+11, @(1)Houston+6, (8)Memphis+3, @(11)Mississippi St.+11, (6)Kentucky+26, @(8)Arkansas+15, @(7)Missouri+21, (11)Mississippi St.+3, @(9)Auburn+8, (8)Arkansas+3, (9)Auburn+OT, =(11)Mississippi St.+23, =(7)Missouri+11, =(7)Texas A&M+19, =(16)Texas A&M Corpus Christi+21, =(8)Maryland+22
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (4): =(7)Michigan St.+11, @(1)Houston+6, @(8)Arkansas+15, (8)Arkansas+3
• Losses to tournament teams (4): =(4)Connecticut-15, (3)Gonzaga-10, @(4)Tennessee-9, @(7)Texas A&M-6
• Other losses (1): @Oklahoma-24

Overview: In the pre-SEC season the Tide beat 7-seed Michigan State, 1-seed Houston, and 8-seed Memphis while losing to 4-seed UConn and 3-seed Gonzaga. To be fair, this tally does could Mississippi State three times and they didn't make the final 64, so you could say reduce the total by three now.

The Tide went 16-2 in the SEC, 19-2 if you count the conference tournament, only losing to 4-seed Tennessee and 7-seed Texas A&M on the road. The other loss along the way? A 93-69 beatdown by Oklahoma, a Big Twelve team that didn't make the Big Dance. It shows that even the best teams are vulnerable to any team ranked in the top 50 or so. At the Sweet Sixteen, Alabama has played an amazing 6 of the remaining teams, winning 4 games and losing 3.

Freshman Brandon Miller is the team's star, averaging 19.6 points per game and 8.3 rebounds. Attention came his way due to a fatal shooting where it was revealed he had transported the murder weapon. Following this revelation the Tide played four very uncharacteristically poor games (games #28 to #31: they beat South Carolina in overtime, Arkansas by 3 at home, Auburn at home in overtime, and lost to Texas A&M 67-61) but Miller himself seemed unaffected, scoring a career high 41 in the first game. The guy has ice in his veins so don't expect the pressure of the NCAA tournament to get to him.

Of course just after saying that, Miller goes 0-5 for 0 points in the first game, citing a groin injury, as well as death threats. Nick Pringle led with 19 against TAMU-CC. Miller did score 19 in the 73-51 Maryland win but was 5 of 17 from the field while Jahvon Quinerly led with 22. 

             **************************************************************

Season overview: San Diego State

• Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (14)Kennesaw St.+34, (11)Nevada+9, (10)Utah St.+10, (10)Boise St.+20, @(10)Utah St.+2, =(10)Utah St.+5, =(12)Charleston+6, =(13)Furman+23
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): None
• Losses to tournament teams (5): =(2)Arizona-17, =(8)Arkansas-OT, =(5)Saint Mary's-7, @(11)Nevada-9, @(10)Boise St.-6
• Other losses (1): New Mexico-9

Overview: San Diego State had a challenging pre-conference season, beating BYU, Stanford, and Ohio State but losing to tournament teams Arizona (2-seed), Arkansas (8-seed, in overtime), and Saint Mary's (5). They went 5-2 against the qualifiers from the Mountain West in a year when that league was essentially the 7th Major conference. The Aztecs never won more than six games in a row so it's easy to overlook that they finished the season 20-3.

The Aztecs spread scoring out very evenly over 9 players; only guard Matt Bradley averages in double figures (12.9) and against Charleston he indeed was the only Aztec in double figures, leading with 17 points. There were even nine players who scored, so they couldn't have lived up to their billing any better. Against Furman Micah Parrish led with 16.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: Alabama went through a 4-game spell where Brandon Miller was still playing well but the team wasn't (this was right after the gun transportate revelation). That slump seems to be over for the team and they're playing just as well as always...but Miller isn't. He's a total of 5 of 22 shooting during the first two games. It hasn't affected the team's play but how much longer can they win with Miller playing poorly?

It's going to be a bit rough for the Aztecs on offense. They shoot the ball pretty poorly, and Alabama defends exceptionally well—they're #1 per Pomeroy in effective field goal defense, great against both the 3 (#3) and the 2 (#1). SDSU might have a rebounding edge here so they can collect some of their many misses.

The Tide doesn't shoot all that great either, but they do shoot the two pretty well and San Diego State's defense against the 2 is sketchy. So as long as they don't get the ball stolen (they are vulnerable there and SDSU is good at that) or their shot blocked (ditto), they should have a good day inside the arc where they have a big height advantage in the forward and center positions. The problem is that they're used to shooting a whole lot of threes (#8 in frequency there) so they might have to change their mindset to win this game.

Alabama won their first two games by more than 20 points, which is great but 1-seeds often get an unexpected test along the way no matter how dominant they are early on. This would be a perfect time, because I think they won't take the Aztecs seriously. In the back of their minds they are playing a mid-Major school that just beat a 12 and a 13 to get to the Sweet Sixteen, and they expect another double-digit winning margin. Make no mistake, they might get it, but I think they might get a scare from a mid-Major that's more of a major program.

Luckily for them they're playing about six hours from home whereas San Diego State is playing over 30 hours from home. That's probably worth a point or two right there for fan support and easier travel.

Vegas Line:

Alabama by   7 1/2

Power rating: spread

Alabama by   8.2 / 11.6

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Alabama:        67.8% / 74.1%
San Diego St:   32.2% / 25.9%

Vegas has Alabama by 7 1/2, while Strength says 8 points...unless we add home court advantage which makes it over 11 points. I don't think full home court should be given but it should be more than 0 points since Alabama is playing pretty close and SDSU very, very far from home. The Tide end up with somewhere between 2/3 and 3/4 chance of winning; amazingly, 1-seeds normally win over 80% of these matchups (4-seeds win almost 30% against 1-seeds).

Bottom line: I think San Diego State is going to give Alabama a run for their money, but come up short.

Final prediction: Alabama 73, San Diego State 68

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

2023 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (2) UCLA vs. (3) Gonzaga

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

UCLA Bruins
Seed: 2
Record: 31-5
Conference: Pac-12

vs.

Gonzaga Bulldogs
Seed: 3
Record: 30-5
Conference: West Coast

Date: Thursday, March 23
Time: 9:40 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Las Vegas, NV  
Channel: CBS

 

This is a national title-level game, but it's just for a spot in the Elite Eight.

     UCLA                               Gonzaga

Power Ratings

Strength:          #3              Strength:          #6
   Median:   #5                      Median:   #7
   Markov:   #3                      Markov:   #8
Pomeroy:           #3              Pomeroy:           #7
   Offense:  #21                      Offense:  #1
   Defense:  #2                       Defense:  #76
BPI:               #4              BPI:               #8
LRMC:              #2              LRMC:              #8

Other Measures:

SOS:               #32             SOS:               #65    
Tempo (Offense):   #212            Tempo (Offense):   #33
Consistency:       #84             Consistency:       #286
Str + Reliability: #1              Str + Reliability: #6
Str + Potential:   #7              Str + Potential:   #4

2nd half season:   #2              2nd half season:   #3
NCAA Tournament:   #3              NCAA Tournament:   #14
Injury Mod Rank:   #3              Injury Mod Rank:   #5

MegaScreen                         MegaScreen 
  Winner:          #2                Winner:          NA
  Final Four:      #2                Final Four:      #5

Both these teams are as strong as a 1-seed, or very close. UCLA is in the top 4 in all four power ratings, and Gonzaga is top 8, making this at least a 1-seed vs. 2-seed level game. The game will feature the nation's #1 offense vs. the #2 defense when Gonzaga has the ball. The other end of the court boasts UCLA's top 25 offense and Gonzaga's rather poor defense.

There's a tempo difference as Gonzaga like to play fast, and a consistency difference as Gonzaga is a bit up and down while UCLA is very steady for a high-ranked team. Both have played great since early January but for the 2-game tournament sample UCLA is #3 while Gonzaga is #14 out of 16. UCLA's injury modification doesn't show much difference between their regular play—they're still #3 over the six-game sample without Jaylen Clark.

The MegaScreen considers UCLA a top candidate to win it all, but screens out the Zags due to their low defensive efficiency ranking. They're still a prime candidate for the Final Four—but two of the top 5 candidates are already meeting in the Sweet Sixteen!

Season overview: UCLA

• Wins vs. tournament teams (8): @(8)Maryland+27, =(6)Kentucky+10, (10)USC+2, @(11)Arizona St.+12, (11)Arizona St.+18, (2)Arizona+9, =(15)UNC Asheville+33, =(7)Northwestern+5
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): None
• Losses to tournament teams (5): =(9)Illinois-9, =(3)Baylor-5, @(2)Arizona-6, @(10)USC-13, =(2)Arizona-2
• Other losses (0): None

Overview: UCLA suffered early losses to 9-seed Illinois and 3-seed Baylor, both in the Continental Tire Main Event in Las Vegas. They won 14 straight after that, beating 8-seed Maryland 87-60 on the road and 6-seed Kentucky along the way. Then they dropped two more games, to 2-seed Arizona and 10-seed USC, before running off another 12 straight. They dropped the last game to 2-seed Arizona on a missed 3-pointer. The Bruins lost no home games this year.

Veterans Jaime Jacquez (17.3 ppg, 8.1 rebounds) and Tyger Campbell (13.6 points, 4.7 assists) have been the team leaders for the last four years and provide just about the best complementary play in college basketball today. Third-leading scorer Jaylen Clark was lost for the year a few games ago; his absence is the only question mark for this team's NCAA tournament run. So far they're doing ok, dispatching UNC Asheville with east behind 17 points from both Jacquez and Amari Bailey. Jacquez had 24 points and 12 rebounds in the 68-63 win over Northwestern.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Gonzaga

• Wins vs. tournament teams (9): =(7)Michigan St.+1, (6)Kentucky+16, =(3)Xavier+4, (13)Kent St.+7, @(1)Alabama+10, (5)Saint Mary's+9, =(5)Saint Mary's+26, =(14)Grand Canyon+12, =(6)TCU+3
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): =(7)Michigan St.+1, =(3)Xavier+4, @(1)Alabama+10
• Losses to tournament teams (4): @(2)Texas-19, =(1)Purdue-18, =(3)Baylor-1, @(5)Saint Mary's-OT
• Other losses (1): Loyola Marymount-1

Overview: Gonzaga is always one of the teams to watch, especially in the pre-conference season when they mix it up with some of the nation's best. This year the Zags: beat 7-seed Michigan by one point aboard an aircraft carrier; fell to 2-seed Texas 93-74; and beat 6-seed Kentucky 88-72. And that was just in the first four games! In another 3-game stretch the Bulldogs lost to Purdue, 84-66, beat 3-seed Xavier 88-84 (both in one of the Portland Phil Knight tournaments), and fell to Baylor by a point playing in South Dakota for some reason. Their last big non-conference challenge was overall 1-seed Alabama, whom they beat 100-90 in Birmingham, making them 1-1 against 1-seeds this season.

In the WCC Gonzaga coasted as usual waiting for the big matchup with 5-seed Saint Mary's but were tripped up by Loyola Marymount on the way, breaking their 76-game home win streak (they won the rematch on the road 108-65). They lost in overtime to the Gaels on the road, beat them at home 77-68, then thrashed them 77-51 in their West Coast Conference tournament final.

Senior Drew Timme, who seemingly has been around forever, is the team's leader. He averages 20.9 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. Three other Zags average in double figures including Julian Strawther who led against Grand Canyon with 28. Timme had 28 in the 84-81 win over TCU that got the Zags to the Sweet Sixteen for the 8th straight time.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: UCLA's injuries are adding up and that could be a big problem. But so far it hasn't really been. Starter David Singleton was the latest, but he's been cleared to play already. Of course Jaylen Clark is gone and Adem Bona missed two games including the Arizona loss and the first round win over UNC Asheville.

When Gonzaga has the ball it's definitely championship-caliber basketball, the #1 offense vs. the #2 defensive play in the nation. The Bruins do just about everything well on defense but Gonzaga does everything a bit better on offense, including shooting and rebounding. UCLA did have a slightly harder schedule so that narrows the gap even further. 

So the key might be UCLA's play on offense, and whether Gonzaga's challenged defense can rise to the occasion. There aren't many areas where the defense does things well enough—not blocks, steals, or defending shots—where UCLA has a weakness. Gonzaga rebounds well on defense but UCLA has better offensive rebounding. The Bruins don't shoot all that well so the Zags might just have to hope they miss their shots. Or count on outscoring them on the other end of the floor.

Gonzaga has reached the Sweet Sixteen eight years in a row, and Drew Timme colorfully gave a sigh of relief that they didn't blow the streak this year. Maybe compared to the last few years the Zags have set their sights lower? Is this a good enough run for the team? Gonzaga has been a 1-seed the last two tournaments, maybe their expectations are reduced, but this doesn't sound like a team expecting to make the Elite Eight. Of course, it's also very possible that Motivated Gonzaga shows up and has one of their great outlier performances they seem to have every 5 or 10 games.

Vegas Line:

UCLA by   2

Power rating: spread

UCLA by   1.6

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

UCLA:      57.5% 
Gonzaga:   42.5% 

The 2- vs. 3-seed is very common, of course, and 2-seeds normally win 62%, so Gonzaga is clearly a tougher than normal 3-seed as we've said.

Bottom line: Both these teams should be in the Elite Eight but only one can make it and I'm sticking with UCLA.

Final prediction: UCLA 79, Gonzaga 71

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

2023 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (4) Tennessee vs. (9) Florida Atlantic

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Tennessee Volunteers
Seed: 4
Record: 25-10
Conference: SEC

vs.

Florida Atlantic Owls
Seed: 9
Record: 33-3
Conference: C-USA

Date: Thursday, March 23
Time: 9:00 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: New York, NY  
Channel: TBS

 

A rare 4-seed vs. 9-seed matchup.

     Tennessee                          Florida Atlantic

Power Ratings

Strength:          #5              Strength:          #29
   Median:   #4                       Median:   #30
   Markov:   #12                      Markov:   #24
Pomeroy:           #6              Pomeroy:           #22
   Offense:  #60                      Offense:  #30
   Defense:  #1                       Defense:  #36
BPI:               #3              BPI:               #34
LRMC:              #10             LRMC:              #16

Other Measures:

SOS:               #44             SOS:               #117    
Tempo (Offense):   #240            Tempo (Offense):   #82
Consistency:       #347            Consistency:       #120
Str + Reliability: #13             Str + Reliability: #23
Str + Potential:   #2              Str + Potential:   #46

2nd half season:   #9              2nd half season:   #40
NCAA Tournament:   #12             NCAA Tournament:   #16
Injury Mod Rank:   #15             Injury Mod Rank:   #27

MegaScreen                         MegaScreen 
  Winner:          #5                Winner:           NA
  Final Four:      #4                Final Four:      #10

By the power ratings Tennessee could be a 2-seed, if not a 1. The Volunteers are now #3 in BPI, #5 in Strength, and #6 in Pomeroy where they've retaken the #1 defensive spot. Their offense still lags at #60 and in the Markov-chain oriented models (Markov and LRMC) they are ranked in the low double-digits. Florida Atlantic is a respectable 9-seed but their numbers are all worse than Tennessee's, though they are really close in the LRMC. On offense they Owls are better than the Volunteers but they aren't close on defense.

Florida Atlantic has played a decent schedule but not a tough one like Major conference teams have; it's one reason they're screened out of the Winner box on the MegaScreen. They're consistent though, which is how a team gets 33 wins with less than a handful of upset losses. Tennessee isn't consistent at all, which is how a team ranked #5 in Strength ends up with 10 losses (that, plus playing a tough schedule). 

Florida Atlantic faded a bit in the 2nd half of the season but turned it up again before the tournament. But so far in the tournament they are #16, dead last in performance of the remaining teams. Tennessee isn't much better at #12, and indeed their Strength since losing Zakai Zeigler is just #15—still ahead of FAU but not elite level. They aren't playing like the team that the MegaScreen makes a Final Four favorite—though perhaps the Duke game says otherwise.

Season overview: Tennessee

• Wins vs. tournament teams (11): =(10)USC+OT, =(1)Kansas+14, =(8)Maryland+3, (11)Mississippi St.+34, @(11)Mississippi St.+11, (2)Texas+11, (9)Auburn+3, (1)Alabama+9, (8)Arkansas+18, =(13)Louisiana+3, =(5)Duke+13
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): (2)Texas+11, (1)Alabama+9, (8)Arkansas+18
• Losses to tournament teams (7): @(2)Arizona-5, (6)Kentucky-7, (7)Missouri-1, @(6)Kentucky-12, @(7)Texas A&M-5, @(9)Auburn-9, =(7)Missouri-8
• Other losses (3): Colorado-12, @Florida-13, @Vanderbilt-1

Overview: Tennessee was one of the very best teams all season but ran into turbulence in February and may have taken a fatal blow in March. Despite losing basically at home to Colorado, 78-66, the Vols beat 10-seed USC and 1-seed Kansas to start 14-2 (they also lost to 2-seed Arizona on the road in that stretch). The home loss to then-struggling Kentucky was another aberration, and soon they were 18-3, fresh off a win over 2-seed Texas in the SEC/Big Twelve Challenge, and ranked #2 in the AP poll. From there the Vols lost to Florida and Vanderbilt, and Missouri at home, and were never the same. Occasional great wins—like beating 1-seed Alabama—were followed by losses, reflecting their status as one of the country's most inconsistent teams. Defensively they were always sound, even fantastic, but on offense they often struggled.

Santiago Vescovi leads the team with 12.9 points per game but in 2nd place is point guard Zakai Zeigler with 10.7 points, 5.4 assists, and 2.0 steals per game. He will miss the tournament however as he recovers from a torn ACL. Our Injury Correction rankings show the Vols aren't nearly as good without him, and the Vols first round game did nothing to assuage those worries as they beat Louisiana 58-55 after blowing an 18 point lead. Tyreke Key led with 12 points. The Duke win was one of Tennessee's best games in the 2023 calendar year, as they beat up the Blue Devils 65-52 behind Olivier Nkamhoua's 27 points. 

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Florida Atlantic

• Wins vs. tournament teams (3): (16)Northern Kentucky+15, =(8)Memphis+1, =(16)Fairleigh Dickinson+8
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): None
• Losses to tournament teams (0): None
• Other losses (3): @Mississippi-13, @UAB-9, @Middle Tennessee-4

Overview: FAU lost early and didn't lose for a long time after that. The road loss to Ole Miss was their last for 20 games. Admittedly there weren't many challenges along the way: Florida, South Alabama, North Texas, and UAB were their toughest tests, and they did get a tournament field win over 16-seed Northern Kentucky. But they won by big margins typically, keeping their power ratings high and tipping off observers that they were a team to keep track of. They lost on the road to UAB and Middle Tennessee and after the latter seemed to kick into high gear. Maybe they were unsure of getting an at-large bid and wanted some certainty? In any case their last 7 games are next-level, and their 78-56 neutral court win in the rubber match with UAB is just as strong as Memphis' final win over Houston.

Florida Atlantic spreads out the scoring, with leader Johnell Davis averaging 13.5 per game and 7 others topping 5.0 per game. They play a very short lineup with the exception of 7-1 center Vlad Goldin. Giancarlo Rosado made all six of his field goal attempts in leading the Owls with 15 points in the win over Memphis. Davis caught fire against Fairleigh Dickinson for 29 points as they held off the 16-seed 78-70.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: The problem for FAU is to score on Tennessee's suffocating defense, while the Volunteers have to keep their offense from sucking.

Tennessee just played one of their best games in the last 2 months while FAU just played their one of their worst over the same time period. That would seem to give the Volunteers and advantage, but there are many ways to look at both teams' performances.

FAU is a team that wins games: 33 so far this year. In both tournament games so far the Owls have done what they need to do to win. Nothing more, just winning. It's resulted in the worst performance out of 16 teams left, but that's grading Memphis and FDU at their regular-season quality. Memphis was playing their best basketball right before the tournament (remember the Houston win?) and no sane person would say the FDU team that FAU faced was the same team from December or February. So Florida Atlantic's tournament performance so far is being underrated.

Tennessee is up and down. Last game they were up, but who is to say if they will be this game or not? Their inconsistency is pretty consistent. They had a great game against Duke, but will they be psyched to do the same against Florida Atlantic? Probably not. Notice that the Vols did terribly against Louisiana, another no-cachet name, just prior to the Duke win. And recall in February when Tennessee lost to Vanderbilt and Missouri, then thrashed Alabama 68-59, then lost to Kentucky and Texas A&M? The Alabama game was the important one in that stretch. None of the other games were enough to get them psyched, not even Kentucky who was having a down year. Motivated Tennessee can still put on a show, even without Zakai Zeigler, but not consistently.

And that brings us to Zeigler, whose absence is the great equalizer. Tennessee's Strength when he plays is #4; without him they're #15, and that includes two really good games (Arkansas and Duke). It also includes three really bad games. Basically Tennessee is even more up and down now without Zeigler than they were before, still capable of beating great teams or losing badly.

FAU is one of the shortest teams in the country (FDU, whom they just beat, was even shorter). Tennessee isn't the tallest team either but they have a 6-11 starter and a 7-1 backup. FAU does have a 7-1 reserve but Tennessee's guards and forwards are 2-4 inches taller at each position.

Vegas Line:

Tennessee by   5 1/2

Power rating: spread

Tennessee by   6.6

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Tennessee:     65.1% 
Florida Atl:   34.9% 

Tennessee gets the nod from the power rating and the sportsbooks, with about a 2/3 chance to win. 4-seeds vs. 9-seeds is a very rare thing, happening only three times in the 64+ team era. The 4-seed has won twice, so the Vols 2/3 chance is about on par with history.

Bottom line: Tennessee has a lot of advantages in this game (defense, height), I just don't think they will be motivated, while Florida Atlantic will be highly motivated. Either FAU will be outclassed and blown away, or they'll do what they need to do to win, as usual.

Final prediction: Florida Atlantic 66, Tennessee 63

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

2023 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (4) UConn vs. (8) Arkansas

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

UConn Huskies
Seed: 4
Record: 27-8
Conference: Big East

vs.

Arkansas Razorbacks
Seed: 8
Record: 22-13
Conference: SEC

Date: Thursday, March 23
Time: 7:15 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Las Vegas  
Channel: CBS

 

Historically the 8-seed wins when they meet a 4-seed. But it hasn't happened very often.

     UConn                              Arkansas

Power Ratings

Strength:          #4              Strength:          #16
   Median:   #6                       Median:   #27
   Markov:   #2                       Markov:   #26
Pomeroy:           #4              Pomeroy:           #18
   Offense:  #3                       Offense:  #50
   Defense:  #14                      Defense:  #15
BPI:               #6              BPI:               #14
LRMC:              #4              LRMC:              #23

Other Measures:

SOS:               #46             SOS:               #13    
Tempo (Offense):   #237            Tempo (Offense):   #140
Consistency:       #222            Consistency:       #177
Str + Reliability: #3              Str + Reliability: #20
Str + Potential:   #5              Str + Potential:   #27

2nd half season:   #6              2nd half season:   #31
NCAA Tournament:   #1              NCAA Tournament:   #9
Injury Mod Rank:   #4              Injury Mod Rank:   #19

MegaScreen                         MegaScreen 
  Winner:          NA                Winner:          NA
  Final Four:      #6                Final Four:      NA

UConn, especially after the last 2 games, ranks more like a 1-seed than a 4-seed. #4 in Strength, Pomeroy, and LRMC (on Selection Sunday, even), with BPI just behind at #6. That's a tough 4-seed. On offense they rank #3, and on defense they're pretty solid too.

For their part Arkansas is more like a 4-seed than an 8-seed. Their Strength, Pomeroy, and BPI are all top 20 and LRMC isn't updated. The Razorbacks' weakness is clearly offensive play as their defense is solidly top 20.

That's pretty much the relevant story. For the 2 games of the tournament so far UConn is playing the best of anyone, while Arkansas is in the top 10 of the 16 and had one of the biggest moments, knocking off a 1-seed. Neither team is considered a threat to win it all by the MegaScreen while UConn was a decent Final Four option on Selection Sunday. Arkansas was screened out of the Final Four even, due to their dismal 2-8 road record.

Season overview: Connecticut

• Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(1)Alabama+15, =(6)Iowa St.+18, (6)Creighton+9, (2)Marquette+15, (11)Providence+18, =(11)Providence+7, =(13)Iona+24, =(5)Saint Mary's+15
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): =(1)Alabama+15, (6)Creighton+9
• Losses to tournament teams (6): @(3)Xavier-10, @(11)Providence-12, @(2)Marquette-6, (3)Xavier-3, @(6)Creighton-3, =(2)Marquette-2
• Other losses (2): St. John's-11, @Seton Hall-1

Overview: As mentioned UConn was the best team in the country until late December; they had beaten 1-seed Alabama 82-67and 6-seed Iowa State in Portland and raced to a 14-0 start. But around game 13 they downshifted a gear it seems; the wins over Georgetown (84-73) and Villanova (74-66) at home weren't dominant. Sure enough, losses followed, most but not all to tournament teams. In all they lost 6 of 8 before slowly recovering their mojo. Finally at the end they put together another solid win streak of six games that ended in a 2-point loss to 2-seed Marquette. Have they truly regained their early season form? The first two games of the tournament say yes.

6-9 forward Adam Sanogo is the team's leader in points (16.8) and rebounds (7.3). The Huskies are a tall team, who often have every player on the court at 6-5 or over and also have a 7-2 backup center. UConn beat Iona behind Sanogo's 28 points (on 13 of 17 shooting). The Huskies were even more impressive against St. Mary's, winning 70-55 against the tough 5-seed; this time Sanogo had 24 on 11 of 16 shooting.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Arkansas

• Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(5)San Diego St.+OT, (15)UNC Asheville+34, (7)Missouri+6, (7)Texas A&M+11, @(6)Kentucky+15, =(9)Auburn+3, =(9)Illinois+10, =(1)Kansas+1
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): =(5)San Diego St.+OT
• Losses to tournament teams (11): =(6)Creighton-3, @(9)Auburn-13, (1)Alabama-15, @(7)Missouri-3, @(3)Baylor-3, (11)Mississippi St.-6, @(7)Texas A&M-6, @(1)Alabama-3, @(4)Tennessee-18, (6)Kentucky-9, =(7)Texas A&M-6
• Other losses (2): @LSU-3, @Vanderbilt-13

Overview: Arkansas started strong with 11 wins in 12 games, beating 5-seed San Diego State in overtime but losing to 6-seed Creighton. The Razorbacks hit a rough patch corresponding with losing two players and dropped five out of six, but recovered to win 5 of 6 afterwards. They were 4-10 against tournament-bound SEC foes and played Baylor close on the road. They ended with another skid, losing 4 of 5, but played very well in the Auburn win and the 3-point Alabama road loss.

Five Razorbacks have averaged in double figures over the season, but one of them (Trevor Brazile) is injured and another (Nick Smith) missed a lot of the season but is back. Ricky Council IV leads the team at 15.9ppg. Council led with 18 points—making 11 of 12 free throws—in the 73-63 win over Illinois. Davonte Davis had 25 in the upset of 1-seed Kansas.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: UConn's strengths are shooting well, from both 2 and 3, and rebounding well, particlulary on the offensive glass where they are #2 in the nation. They defend both the 2 and 3 well on defense. Their all-around game is pretty solid.

Arkansas shoots the 2 well but not the three, so they don't shoot the three very often compared to other teams. They're much better on defense where they block shots, get a lot of steals, and defend shoots very well—but they also foul a lot. In fact both teams foul a lot on defense which could lead to a lot of free throws and UConn makes 76% to the Razorbacks' <70%. Arkansas could have success stealing the ball while UConn should get quite a few rebounds on offense.

UConn beat St. Mary's by 15 despite the Gaels (the #2 defensive rebounding team) limiting the Huskies to 4 offensive rebounds. Arkansas is only #138 in defensive rebounding.

Vegas Line:

UConn by   3 1/2

Power rating: spread

UConn by   5.3

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

UConn:     65.6% 
Arkansas:  34.4% 

Historically 4-seeds haven't played 8-seeds very often, just 10 times since 1985, and the 8-seed has won 6 times. So these odds would be reverse by that small sample. But is there something to it? Does upsetting a 1-seed give the 8-seed a boost that carries over to the next game? Last year 8-seed North Carolina beat 1-seed Baylor, then beat 4-seed UCLA 73-66. I think it's plausible that the 8-seed gets a boost but not to the point where they should be favored; it's probably a 50/50 game by the time both teams get to the Sweet Sixteen.

Bottom line: Arkansas beat a 1-seed but UConn's win over St. Mary's was a lot more impressive. Arkansas is a tough 8-seed but UConn is an even tougher 4-seed. I think this game will help bring the historical stats back toward par.

Final prediction: UConn 80, Arkansas 69

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

2023 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (3) Kansas State vs. (7) Michigan State

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Kansas State Wildcats
Seed: 3
Record: 25-9
Conference: Big Twelve

vs.

Michigan State Spartans
Seed: 7
Record: 21-12
Conference: Big Ten

Date: Thursday, March 23
Time: 6:30 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: New York, NY  
Channel: TBS

 

The team that wins this may be in the driver's seat to the Final Four as both top seeds are gone in the East.

     Kansas State                       Michigan State

Power Ratings

Strength:          #20             Strength:          #30
   Median:   #23                      Median:   #25
   Markov:   #23                      Markov:   #28
Pomeroy:           #21             Pomeroy:           #25
   Offense:  #47                      Offense:  #38
   Defense:  #17                      Defense:  #31
BPI:               #31             BPI:               #37
LRMC:              #30             LRMC:              #45

Other Measures:

SOS:               #14             SOS:               #2   
Tempo (Offense):   #44             Tempo (Offense):   #274
Consistency:       #95             Consistency:       #94
Str + Reliability: #19             Str + Reliability: #22
Str + Potential:   #42             Str + Potential:   #50

2nd half season:   #23             2nd half season:   #24
NCAA Tournament:   #13             NCAA Tournament:   #2
Injury Mod Rank:   #22             Injury Mod Rank:   #16

MegaScreen                         MegaScreen 
  Winner:           NA               Winner:           NA
  Final Four:      #11               Final Four:      #12

We've got a pretty close contest here. Updated numbers show Michigan State within 10 places in Strength, 4 spots in Pomeroy, and six spots in BPI. The LRMC doesn't update after Selection Sunday. Pomeroy's numbers show Michigan State plays better on offense than the Wildcats but a bit weaker defense; on both sides of the court the team playing defense will have the edge.

The Wildcats like a pretty fast tempo while the Spartans slow it down a bit. Both teams are pretty consistent, too, so the odds of an upset are small, but with teams this close in quality an upset is within normal boundaries anyway, regardless of how consistent the teams are. The other interesting figures are the play over the NCAA tournament (last 2 games) where the Spartans are #2, but that's obviously a small sample. They have, however, played at a quite strong level (#16) when they have their full lineup including Malik Hall available. From this number they look stronger right now than the Wildcats.

The MegaScreen didn't give either team a chance of winning it all but both are Final Four considerations, though not very high as of Selection Sunday. Obviously their odds have improved a lot due to external factors like the #1 and #2 seeds being gone from their Region. But only one can advance through this window.

Season overview: Kansas State

• Wins vs. tournament teams (10): =(11)Nevada+OT, (9)West Virginia+OT, @(2)Texas+13, @(3)Baylor+OT, (1)Kansas+OT, (6)TCU+21, (6)Iowa St.+6, (3)Baylor+10, =(14)Montana St.+12, =(6)Kentucky+6
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): @(2)Texas+13
• Losses to tournament teams (6): @(6)TCU-14, @(6)Iowa St.-4, @(1)Kansas-12, (2)Texas-3, @(9)West Virginia-8, =(6)TCU-13
• Other losses (3): @Butler-12, @Texas Tech-8, @Oklahoma-14

Overview: Kansas State wasn't taken seriously early on. They needed overtime to beat 11-seed Nevada and lost to Butler, and their pre-Big Twelve schedule was pretty easy so going 11-1 didn't impress. They beat 9-seed West Virginia in overtime at home but it was the road win at Texas, 116-103, that caught people's attention, and wins over 3-seed Baylor and 1-seed Kansas (both in overtime) didn't hurt.

The 'Cats were 17-2 and hit some turbulence and lost 5 of 7, beating only Florida and 6-seed TCU in that span. But two of the losses were to Kansas and Texas, and K-State righted the ship with a 4-game win streak, adding wins over 6-seed Iowa State and another over Baylor while making quick work of both dangerous Oklahoma teams. They did disappoint a bit at the end, falling to West Virginia and then TCU 80-67 in one of their worst performances, but nothing comes easy in the Big Twelve.

Kansas State is led by forward Keontae Johnson with 17.7 points and 7.0 rebounds per game, while 5-8 point guard Markquise Nowell adds 16.8 points and 7.6 assists. Overall K-State is a very short team, #311 in the country in average height. Johnson had 18 and Nowell 17 in the win over Montana State. In the 75-69 win over Kentucky Nowell led with 27 and the Wildcats overcame a 19-4 deficit in offensive rebounds. 

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Michigan State

• Wins vs. tournament teams (7): =(6)Kentucky+OT, @(10)Penn St.+9, (8)Iowa+2, (8)Maryland+5, (4)Indiana+15, =(10)USC+10, =(2)Marquette+9
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): None
• Losses to tournament teams (8): =(3)Gonzaga-1, =(1)Alabama-11, (7)Northwestern-7, @(9)Illinois-9, (1)Purdue-1, @(4)Indiana-13, @(1)Purdue-16, @(8)Iowa-OT
• Other losses (4): @Notre Dame-18, @Rutgers-6, @Michigan-12, =Ohio St.-10

Overview: Michigan State had rough patches and success alternately this year. They started 5-4 but with the nation's #3 SOS it was a landmine with losses to 3-seed Gonzaga (by one point) and 1-seed Alabama (in Portland) and a win over 6-seed Kentucky (in double overtime). The really bad loss was to Notre Dame, 70-52. The Spartans went on a 7-game win streak over mostly mediocre competition, then lost 5 of 7 over mostly tough opponents (including 1-seed Purdue twice); their level of play barely budged during this time. Down the stretch they won 5 of 8, beating Ohio State twice before losing to the Buckeyes in the Big Ten tournament.

Michigan State boast a trio of double digit scorers: Tyson Walker leads with 14.6ppg while Joey Hauser leads in rebounding with 6.9 and AJ Hoggard dishes out 6.0 assists per game. Malik Hall is a key reserve who missed 8 games early and 3 games in the middle of the Big Ten season but he's back, and in the games he's played Michigan State is a lot better. Hauser led with 17 points and 8 rebounds in the 72-62 win over USC. The Spartans led most of the way and held on to beat 2-seed Marquette 69-60 behind Walker's 23 points.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: Both teams ended their last wins with a strong run at the end that turned a super-close game into a comfortable win. K-State has played well so far but Michigan State has been at their best. Two games doesn't mean everything but it can indicate that a team has "come alive" for the tournament, and Michigan State does that very, very often under Tom Izzo. Meanwhile Jerome Tang is coaching his very first college basketball season at Kansas State. He's done a remarkable job this year but the NCAA tournament's history shows that coaching experience wins games and tournaments. 

Kansas State gave up an incredible 19 offensive rebounds to Kentucky their last game, but they shouldn't have to worry about that against the Spartans who aren't a great offensive rebounding team. In fact these teams match up pretty well in terms of strength vs. strength and weakness vs. weakness. Michigan State shoots the 3 great and K-State defends it very well; K-State is vulnerable to steals but Michigan State rarely gets any; K-State's 2-point shooting is relatively as good a MSU's defense there; both teams are good from the foul line; K-State gets to the foul line a lot while Michigan State doesn't, but K-State sends teams there while MSU doesn't.

As mentioned before both defenses have the slight advantage over each team on offense, so its up to the teams to figure out a game plan on offense. 

Vegas Line:

Michigan St by   2

Power rating: spread

Kansas St by   1.0

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Kansas St:     51.7% 
Michigan St:   49.3% 

Interesting, a discrepancy between the Strength power rating and Vegas, only about the 2nd or 3rd the whole tournament. It's because of two things, perhaps: Michigan State has looked really good so far, they are at full strength, and also there's just the fact that Tom Izzo wins games in the NCAA tournament.

Bottom line: Every 3-5 years like clockwork the Spartans go to the Final Four. With the top two seeds out the path looks pretty clear now. I didn't even have the Spartans getting here, but I'm starting to think a Final Four run is probably going to happen.

Final prediction: Michigan State 69, Kansas State 63

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (3) Gonzaga vs. (6) TCU

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Gonzaga Bulldogs
Seed: 3
Record: 29-5
Conference: West Coast

vs.

TCU Horned Frogs
Seed: 6
Record: 22-12
Conference: Big Twelve

Date: Sunday, March 19
Time: 8:40 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Denver, CO  
Channel: TBS

 

Can the Zags make the Sweet Sixteen for the 7th straight tournament?

     Gonzaga                            TCU

Power Ratings

Strength:          #6              Strength:          #18
   Median:   #6                       Median:   #18
   Markov:   #9                       Markov:   #19
Pomeroy:           #7              Pomeroy:           #25
   Offense:  #1                       Offense:  #51
   Defense:  #75                      Defense:  #23
BPI:               #8              BPI:               #28
LRMC:              #8              LRMC:              #20

Other Measures:

SOS:               #65             SOS:               #30   
Tempo (Offense):   #33             Tempo (Offense):   #45
Consistency:       #307            Consistency:       #350
Str + Reliability: #7              Str + Reliability: #45
Str + Potential:   #4              Str + Potential:   #10

2nd half season:   #2              2nd half season:   #16
Last 6:            #2              Last 6:            #26
Injury Mod Rank:   #4              Injury Mod Rank:   #12

MegaScreen Ranking                 MegaScreen Ranking
  Final 4:  NA                       Final 4:   NA
  Sweet 16: #3                       Sweet 16:  NA

Gonzaga is a killer 3-seed, ranking #6 in Strength, #8 in Pomeroy and #8 in BPI and LRMC. They have the #1 offense in the country but play poorly on defense most of the time, resulting in a #75 efficiency rating. But with the #1 offense it usually doesn't matter. TCU is a pretty tough 6-seed at #18 Strength and #25 Pomeroy, with the #51 offense and #23 on defense. 

The main thing that gives TCU a better shot than normal is both teams' inconsistency. They both have up and down games to a much greater degree than most teams, so the chances of TCU having an "up" game and Gonzaga having a "down" game are better when things are shaken up this much. Both teams play at a fast tempo which does lead to greater variance in scoring, but also tends to favor the favorite. Gonzaga has been playing well lately, TCU not so much.

Gonzaga is a shoo-in for the Sweet 16 according to the MegaScreen, which screens the Zags out of Final Four contention due to their weak defense. The Zags have made the Sweet Sixten six tournaments in a row now.

Season overview: Gonzaga

• Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(7)Michigan St.+1, (6)Kentucky+16, =(3)Xavier+4, (13)Kent St.+7, @(1)Alabama+10, (5)Saint Mary's+9, =(5)Saint Mary's+26, =(14)Grand Canyon+12
  
• Losses to tournament teams (4): @(2)Texas-19, =(1)Purdue-18, =(3)Baylor-1, @(5)Saint Mary's-OT
• Other losses (1): Loyola Marymount-1

Overview: Gonzaga is always one of the teams to watch, especially in the pre-conference season when they mix it up with some of the nation's best. This year the Zags: beat 7-seed Michigan by one point aboard an aircraft carrier; fell to 2-seed Texas 93-74; and beat 6-seed Kentucky 88-72. And that was just in the first four games! In another 3-game stretch the Bulldogs lost to Purdue, 84-66, beat 3-seed Xavier 88-84 (both in one of the Portland Phil Knight tournaments), and fell to Baylor by a point playing in South Dakota for some reason. Their last big non-conference challenge was overall 1-seed Alabama, whom they beat 100-90 in Birmingham, making them 1-1 against 1-seed this season.

In the WCC Gonzaga coasted as usual waiting for the big matchup with 5-seed Saint Mary's but were tripped up by Loyola Marymount on the way, breaking their 76-game home win streak (they won the rematch on the road 108-65). They lost in overtime to the Gaels on the road, beat them at home 77-68, then thrashed them 77-51 in their West Coast Conference tournament final.

Senior Drew Timme, who seemingly has been around forever, is the team's leader. He averages 20.9 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. Three other Zags average in double figures including Julian Strawther who led against Grand Canyon with 28.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: TCU

• Wins vs. tournament teams (9): =(8)Iowa+13, (11)Providence+13, @(3)Baylor+1, (3)Kansas St.+14, @(1)Kansas+23, (9)West Virginia+4, (2)Texas+2, =(3)Kansas St.+13, =(11)Arizona St.+2
  
• Losses to tournament teams (9): (6)Iowa St.-2, @(2)Texas-4, @(9)West Virginia-9, @(11)Mississippi St.-OT, @(3)Kansas St.-21, (3)Baylor-4, @(6)Iowa St.-11, (1)Kansas-5, =(2)Texas-6
• Other losses (3): Northwestern St.-1, @Oklahoma St.-6, @Oklahoma-14

Overview: Perhaps the most remarkable thing about TCU's season is their first three games. The green bar at "0" is the Horned Frogs' average game level. They beat Arkansas Pine-Bluff at home by a point, beat Lamar by 11 at home, then lost to Northwestern State by a point at home. The Frogs almost started the year as bad as Louisville*! (*the Cardinals lost three home games by a point each to terrible teams to kick off their 4-28 season)

But somehow, suddenly, the team was great. Seriously, wtf? Leading scorer Mike Miles (17.3ppg) missed the Northwestern State loss and #2 scorer Damion Baugh (12.6) missed the first six games, but the team was suddenly good at game four against Louisiana Monroe, a 95-60 win. Two games later they beat 8-seed Iowa 79-66, then 11-seed Providence 75-62. And in early January, 3-seed Baylor 88-87 on the road. How does this happen? No wonder the team's Consistency rating is #350—a lot of it is due to those first three games!

In any case after the 13-1 start TCU went 8-11, losing to pretty much the whole Big Twelve plus 11-seed Mississippi State, but beating 3-seed Kansas State, 1-seed Kansas (83-60 on the road!), 9-seed West Virginia, 2-seed Texas, and 3-seed Kansas State again to insure an at-large bid. Mike Miles had 26 in the opening round win over Arizona State.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: In case it's not obvious, look at Gonzaga's chart and compare the games where they are motivated vs. the ones where they aren't. Compare the last game, Grand Canyon, vs. the game before it, St. Mary's, and the game before that, San Francisco. The Bulldogs had defeated San Francisco on the road and were playing at home, and won by 11. They beat Grand Canyon by 12. St. Mary's had beaten the Bulldogs earlier in the year. Same for game 27, Loyola Marymount. Seem like they were a little motivated to make a statement there? The question is, will they beat that motivated against TCU, or do they expect to waltz into the Sweet Sixteen as they have the last six tournaments in a row?

TCU wasn't playing well entering the tournament and their 2 point win over Arizona State doesn't do much to change that viewpoint. Their terrible 3-point shooting makes it seem unlikely they can come back from any deficit, but their pedestrian 2-point shooting might be good enough to keep them in the game against the porous Zag defense. TCU's own defensive play is good, of course, but on offense Gonzaga has the #1 2-point shooting in the country, doesn't turn the ball over or get their shots blocked. 

Vegas Line:

Gonzaga by   4 1/2

Power rating: spread

Gonzaga by   4.9

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Gonzaga:     60.8% 
TCU:         39.2% 

3-seeds beat 6-seeds about 61% of the time...well look at that. And agreement as usual between the sportsbooks and power ratings.

Bottom line: I don't expect to see Motivated Gonzaga this game, just "take care of business and get to the Sweet Sixteen again" Gonzaga. TCU isn't playing all that well and that should be enough.

Final prediction: Gonzaga 81, TCU 77

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (4) Indiana vs. (5) Miami

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Indiana Hoosiers
Seed: 4
Record: 23-11
Conference: Big Ten

vs.

Miami Hurricanes
Seed: 5
Record: 26-7
Conference: ACC

Date: Sunday, March 19
Time: 8:40 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Albany, NY  
Channel: TNT

 

I thought both these teams were vulnerable to being upset, but they made it to the 2nd round unlike some 1- and 2-seeds.

     Indiana                            Miami

Power Ratings

Strength:          #23             Strength:          #48
   Median:   #24                      Median:   #37
   Markov:   #20                      Markov:   #31
Pomeroy:           #30             Pomeroy:           #40
   Offense:  #27                      Offense:  #12
   Defense:  #43                      Defense:  #132
BPI:               #17             BPI:               #36
LRMC:              #24             LRMC:              #41

Other Measures:

SOS:               #23             SOS:               #84    
Tempo (Offense):   #47             Tempo (Offense):   #106
Consistency:       #251            Consistency:       #74
Str + Reliability: #29             Str + Reliability: #32
Str + Potential:   #29             Str + Potential:   #70

2nd half season:   #34             2nd half season:   #42
Last 6:            #53             Last 6:            #77
Injury Mod Rank:   #34             Injury Mod Rank:   #50

MegaScreen Ranking                 MegaScreen Ranking
  Final 4:   NA                      Final 4:   NA
  Sweet 16: #24                      Sweet 16: #20

Indiana holds a decent-sized lead over Miami considering they're only a seed apart. In Strength, Pomeroy, LRMC, and especially BPI they have a solid lead. For all of that Miami plays better offense by quite a bit; Indiana's defense is worlds better however.

Indiana's schedule was a lot tougher so far, reflecting the top-to-bottom strength of the Big Ten compared to the ACC. Miami's the far more consistent team though, meaning that Indiana is going to have a bad game to lose basically. Both teams play a quick tempo, Indiana the faster of the two. 

Neither team played well down the stretch this year, leading me to pick both to be upset in the first round! But both recovered, at least well enough to beat a 12- and 13-seed, which these days is a cause for celebration with 16-seeds beating 1-seeds and 15-seeds going to the Sweet Sixteen. Who has recovered more? Both still lag in the Last 6 Games measure, but Miami's major doubt was how they could play without Norchad Omier, and he played 36 minutes vs. Drake, so that cause for concern is gone.

Season overview: Indiana

• Wins vs. tournament teams (9): @(3)Xavier+2, (14)Kennesaw St.+14, @(9)Illinois+15, (7)Michigan St.+13, (1)Purdue+5, (9)Illinois+3, @(1)Purdue+8, =(8)Maryland+10, =(13)Kent St.+11
  
• Losses to tournament teams (10): =(2)Arizona-14, @(1)Kansas-22, @(8)Iowa-2, (7)Northwestern-1, @(10)Penn St.-19, @(8)Maryland-11, @(7)Northwestern-2, @(7)Michigan St.-15, (8)Iowa-22, =(10)Penn St.-4
• Other losses (1): @Rutgers-15

Overview: Indiana started pretty strong at 7-0 with wins over 3-seed Xavier and pre-season #1 North Carolina but shockingly lost their first Big Ten contest to Rutgers, 63-48. They also fell to 2-seed Arizona and 1-seed Kansas. Xavier Johnson was lost for the year early in the KU game and the Hoosiers then lost three Big Ten games in a row. At 1-4 in conference play their pre-season promise looked busted. But they won 8 of their next 9, beating 9-seed Illinois, 7-seed Michigan State, and 1-seed Purdue in that run. But the end of the season was very erratic for the Hoosiers, alternating wins and losses, great games and terrible ones. Beating 1-seed Purdue again—on the road this time—was followed by a 90-68 home loss to 8-seed Iowa. They ended the season 4-4, more unpredictable than ever.

The one constant this year as been the play of Trayce Jackson-Davis, a player-of-the-year candidate who averages 20.8 points per game and 10.9 rebounds, as well as 4.1 assists. As mentioned, 3rd-leading scorer Xavier Johnson was lost early in the season; it seems like they eventually adjusted to playing without him but are inconsistent as a result. They beat Kent State 71-60 behind Jackson-Davis' 20 points.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Miami

• Wins vs. tournament teams (6): =(11)Providence+10, (11)N.C. State+7, (4)Virginia+2, (5)Duke+22, (11)Pittsburgh+2, =(12)Drake+7
  
• Losses to tournament teams (5): =(8)Maryland-18, @(11)N.C. State-OT, @(5)Duke-2, @(11)Pittsburgh-3, =(5)Duke-7
• Other losses (2): @Georgia Tech-6, Florida St.-1

Overview: Miami popped off to a 13-1 start, beating 11-seed Providence in the pre-conference season as well as UCF and Rutgers while losing only to 8-seed Maryland. They beat 11-seed NC State and 4-seed Virginia before a stunning loss to 15-18 Georgia Tech started a 4-4 skid. All those losses were on the road and the Canes marched on, winning 7 straight including an 81-59 win over 5-seed Duke (the only tournament team in that stretch). Then came the FSU debacle, their first home loss, to a 9-23 team, on a last-second heartbreaking shot by their hated rival. It seems to have done something to them. 

The Hurricanes didn't play well at all at the very end. It wasn't just the Duke loss in the final game—where they lost Norchad Omier early in the contest—but all of their last four games: the home loss to Florida State, the 2-point home win over 11-seed Pitt, the 2-point win over Wake Forest—all were basically as bad as the Duke loss.

Omier is a key defensive player, averaging 1.3 blocks and 9.7 rebounds along with being the Hurricanes' #3 scorer at 13.6ppg. Their overall scoring leader is senior guard Isaiah Wong who leads the team with 16.2 points, 3.4 assists and 1.4 steals. Nigel Pack scored 21 in the win over Drake.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: This is another "double-mismatch" game, the kind that seems so common these days, where both teams either play great offense or great defense, resulting in mismatches on both sides of the floor. In this case it's the team with the ball that's in charge as both teams have defensive play that lags their offensive prowess.

Miami is even better on offense than Indiana, but they're far worse than the Hoosiers on D. When the Hoosiers have the ball they have a great advantage in effective field goal percentage over Miami's defense, both on 3-pointers and especially 2-pointers. The only things Miami does right on defense is create turnovers and not foul.

When Miami has the ball they don't have nearly as good of an advantage shooting. Indiana's D is good at stopping the 2 but not the three, and Miami shoots the three pretty well. Indiana rebounds pretty well on defense, too, and gets a lot of blocked shots. They don't create turnovers, however.

All in all Indiana's defense is weaker but not bordering on putrid like Miami sometimes. Miami's offense is about the same as Indiana's plus they get 2nd shots via rebounds, another weakness of both teams on defense.

Vegas Line:

Indiana by   2

Power rating: spread

Indiana by   3.0

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Indiana:     59.4% 
Miami:       40.6% 

The 4 vs. 5 matchup is won by the 4-seed about 55% of the time; Indiana's 59% reflects Miami's low power rating scores more than anything else. Vegas has the Hoosiers by 2; our Power rating says three points.

Bottom line: Indiana is playing up and down, but Miami is just playing flat. They look like a team that should have lost in the first round. Neither team looks like a Sweet Sixteen team but at least Indiana looks like they belong in the Round of 32.

Final prediction: Indiana 78, Miami 74

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (9) Florida Atlantic vs. (16) Fairleigh Dickinson

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Florida Atlantic Owls
Seed: 9
Record: 32-3
Conference: C-USA

vs.

Fairleigh Dickinson Knights
Seed: 16
Record: 21-15
Conference: Northeast

Date: Sunday, March 19
Time: 7:45 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Columbus, OH  
Channel: truTV

 

Fairleigh Dickinson was only the 2nd 16-seed to make the Round of 32; they can be the first in the Sweet Sixteen.

     FAU                                FDU

Power Ratings

Strength:          #29             Strength:          #288
   Median:   #31                      Median:   #311
   Markov:   #32                      Markov:   #200
Pomeroy:           #22             Pomeroy:           #275
   Offense:  #31                      Offense:  #145
   Defense:  #35                      Defense:  #353
BPI:               #34             BPI:               #265
LRMC:              #16             LRMC:              #278

Other Measures:

SOS:               #124            SOS:               #360    
Tempo (Offense):   #77             Tempo (Offense):   #131
Consistency:       #121            Consistency:       #323
Str + Reliability: #22             Str + Reliability: #321
Str + Potential:   #45             Str + Potential:   #249

2nd half season:   #36             2nd half season:   #271
Last 6:            #8              Last 6:            #126
Injury Mod Rank:   #28             Injury Mod Rank:   #288

MegaScreen Ranking                 MegaScreen Ranking
  Final 4:   NA                      Final 4:  NA
  Sweet 16:  NA                      Sweet 16: NA

This is an incredible mismatch from every number here, but, what can we say? So was Purdue vs. FDU, to a more ridiculous degree. Purdue's last six games were only #28 if that was a crack in their armor, and Florida Atlantic doesn't even have that as a weakness. They rank around #30 in all the power ratings and #16 in the LRMC, while Fairleigh Dickinson, even after beating Purdue, is in the low 200s across the board. Except the Markov chain which has jumped them 98 spots for that win! They're still #353 in Defense in Pomeroy, up from #359 which seems stingy. As does the rise in SOS from #362 to #360. The tiny rise in Median from #313 to #311, on the other had is expected, since that's how a median works.

The Knights' play over the last six games went from #214 to #126, and their Consistency dropped from #258 to #323. 

Season overview: Florida Atlantic

• Wins vs. tournament teams (2): (16)Northern Kentucky+15, =(8)Memphis+1
  
• Losses to tournament teams (0): None
• Other losses (3): @Mississippi-13, @UAB-9, @Middle Tennessee-4

Overview: FAU lost early and didn't lose for a long time after that. The road loss to Ole Miss was their last for 20 games. Admittedly there weren't many challenges along the way: Florida, South Alabama, North Texas, and UAB were their toughest tests, and they did get a tournament field win over 16-seed Northern Kentucky. But they won by big margins typically, keeping their power ratings high and tipping off observers that they were a team to keep track of. They lost on the road to UAB and Middle Tennessee and after the latter seemed to kick into high gear. Maybe they were unsure of getting an at-large bid and wanted some certainty? In any case their last 7 games are next-level, and their 78-56 neutral court win in the rubber match with UAB is just as strong as Memphis' final win over Houston.

Florida Atlantic spreads out the scoring, with leader Johnell Davis averaging 13.5 per game and 7 others topping 5.0 per game. They play a very short lineup with the exception of 7-1 center Vlad Goldin. Giancarlo Rosado made all six of his field goal attempts in leading the Owls with 15 points in the win over Memphis.

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Season overview: Fairleigh Dickinson

• Wins vs. tournament teams (2): =(16)Texas Southern+23, =(1)Purdue+5
  
• Losses to tournament teams (1): @(11)Pittsburgh-22
• Other losses (14): @Loyola Chicago-OT, =SIU Edwardsville-1, @Longwood-16, @Saint Peter's-14, @Hartford-8, @Richmond-29, Queens-9, Sacred Heart-7, Stonehill-11, Wagner-4, Central Connecticut-4, @Sacred Heart-OT, @St. Francis PA-10, @Merrimack-1

Overview: Fairleigh Dickinson is the rare team (first?) to get an automatic bid despite losing in the finals of their conference tournament, as Merrimack isn't eligible during transition to D-I. But they got a win over Texas Southern in the play-in game to make up for it; they're legit now!

FDU's early season was dismal, with a 3-6 start before a huge 97-80 win over St. Joe's jump started their season. Suddenly they were only losing two in a row instead of 5 in 6. But they did what they needed to do—reach the NEC finals—to get a bid and here they are, playing Purdue.

5-8 point guard Demetre Roberts is the teams leading scorer with 16.7 per game.  In the historic and logic-defying win over Purdue, Sean Moore led with 19 points. Despite being outrebounded by the Boilermakers the Knights took 9 more shots total.

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Game Analysis: Interestingly the first round was both teams' 2nd win over the tournament field, as Florida Atlantic had only beaten 16-seed Northern Kentucky while Fairleigh DIckinson beat Texas Southern in the play-in round.

I'm not picking lightning to strike twice. Fairleigh Dickinson's own coach said they had a very specific plan for Purdue and somehow, it worked. Looking back at 16-seed UMBC against Kansas State in their second-round game, the Retrievers did pretty well, losing 50-43 to the Wildcat as a 13-point underdog per the Strength power rating and 10 1/2 points by Vegas.

Vegas Line:

FAU by   15

Power rating: spread

FAU by   20.7

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

FAU:     90.7% 
FDU:      9.3% 

This looks like a 3 vs. a 14-seed in terms of odds to win, or even a 2 vs. a 15-seed which after this year's first round is now a 7.2% proposition. Vegas is a bit more subdued in terms of the spread than the Strength power rating, which isn't buying the hype. Or rather, it sees a lot of hype for FAU who has been playing like a top-10 team lately.

Bottom line: FAU deserves a Sweet Sixteen berth and I think they'll get it without much trouble. But I'm not picking FDU by the points after underestimating them so much last time around.

Final prediction: Florida Atlantic 78, Fairleigh Dickinson 66

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (3) Baylor vs. (6) Creighton

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Baylor Bears
Seed: 3
Record: 23-10
Conference: Big Twelve

vs.

Creighton Bluejays
Seed: 6
Record: 22-12
Conference: Big East

Date: Sunday, March 19
Time: 7:10 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Denver, CO  
Channel: TBS

 

One of the tightest 3 vs. 6 matchups you will find.

     Baylor                             Creighton

Power Ratings

Strength:          #13             Strength:          #12
   Median:   #9                       Median:   #12
   Markov:   #15                      Markov:   #13
Pomeroy:           #14             Pomeroy:           #13
   Offense:  #2                       Offense:  #29
   Defense:  #98                      Defense:  #14
BPI:               #10             BPI:               #11
LRMC:              #18             LRMC:              #14

Other Measures:

SOS:               #6              SOS:               #13    
Tempo (Offense):   #203            Tempo (Offense):   #131
Consistency:       #232            Consistency:       #177
Str + Reliability: #16             Str + Reliability: #12
Str + Potential:   #13             Str + Potential:   #19

2nd half season:   #9              2nd half season:   #8
Last 6:            #45             Last 6:            #23
Injury Mod Rank:   #11(37?)        Injury Mod Rank:   #9

MegaScreen Ranking                 MegaScreen Ranking
  Final 4:  NA                       Final 4:   NA
  Sweet 16: NA                       Sweet 16: #12

Baylor is a solid 3-seed as seen by their Strength rating of #13, Pomeroy of #14, BPI of #10, and slightly lagging LRMC of #18. Their Median game play is in the top ten, and on offense they're the #2 team in the nation. But they don't make our MegaScreen rating for the Final Four or even the Sweet Sixteen largely because of their Defensive Efficiency that is barely under triple-digits.

And if Baylor is a solid 3-seed, what does that make Creighton as a 6? They rank like a 3-seed themselves, with a Strength and Pomeroy ranking 1 spot ahead of the Bears, and BPI one spot behind. The pre-tournament LRMC had them 4 spots ahead. The Bluejays are ahead in our Markov chain but a few spots back in Median.

Both teams played a killer schedule, with tough non-conference slates. Tempo shouldn't be a big factor as both teams are pretty moderate there. And both squads had success in the last half of the season, though both have hit some turbulence lately, Baylor a bit more than Creighton. Baylor's injury situation is clearing up a bit, as Langston Love played 5 minutes in the first round win over UCSB. But that doesn't mean he's close to 100% and Baylor is a lot better when he's fully healthy.

Season overview: Baylor

• Wins vs. tournament teams (9): =(2)UCLA+5, =(3)Gonzaga+1, @(9)West Virginia+5, (1)Kansas+6, (8)Arkansas+3, @(6)TCU+4, (9)West Virginia+12, (2)Texas+9, =(14)UC Santa Barbara+18
  
• Losses to tournament teams (10): =(4)Virginia-7, @(2)Marquette-26, @(6)Iowa St.-15, (6)TCU-1, (3)Kansas St.-OT, @(2)Texas-5, @(1)Kansas-16, @(3)Kansas St.-10, (6)Iowa St.-15, =(6)Iowa St.-6
• Other losses (0): None

Overview: Baylor started strong with a 64-point win(!) over Mississippi Valley State, and played a tough non-conference schedule, losing to 4-seed Virginia and 2-seed Marquette but beating 2-seed UCLA and 3-seed Gonzaga. That was good practice for the Big Twelve where 2/3 of their foes are in the tournament and the other three are dangerous. They Bears went 5-8 against those tournament teams and beat 8-seed Arkansas along the way. The Bears went 1-1 vs. 1-seed Kansas and 2-seed Texas but 0-2 against 3-seed Kansas State and 0-3 vs. 6-seed Iowa State, to whom they lost the last two games of the year. In their lower-ranked last six games they lost 4 times but also beat Texas.

Baylor is led by guards Keonte George, Adam Flagler, and LJ Cryer, who all average over 14 points per game. Flagler led with 18 points against UCSB in the 74-56 win.

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Season overview: Creighton

• Wins vs. tournament teams (5): =(8)Arkansas+3, (11)Providence+6, (3)Xavier+17, (4)Connecticut+3, =(11)N.C. State+9
  
• Losses to tournament teams (9): =(2)Arizona-2, @(2)Texas-5, =(11)Arizona St.-2, @(2)Marquette-11, @(4)Connecticut-9, @(3)Xavier-3, @(11)Providence-OT, (2)Marquette-2, =(3)Xavier-22
• Other losses (3): Nebraska-10, =BYU-3, @Villanova-12

Overview: Creighton was an AP poll darling early and at 6-0 they had already beaten 8-seed Arkansas. Then they went on a 6-games skid and all that goodwill was squandered. They really only played one bad game—the home loss to Nebraska—in that stretch which included three 2-seeds (Arizona, Texas, and Marquette) as well as 11-seed ASU, plus BYU in Las Vegas. Two more losses quickly followed to 4-seed UConn and 3-seed Xavier but they held up in the power ratings so their comeback didn't surprise anyone knowledgable. The Bluejays won 8 straight, beating 11-seed Providence, 3-seed Xavier, and 4-seed UConn before hitting a bit more turbulence in the tough Big East. After three solid wins they got beat 82-60 by Xavier in their final outing which stands as their worst game. But they've come back from adversity before.

7-1 center Ryan Kalkbrenner is the team's leading scorer at 15.4 ppg; he was gone for three games during Creighton's 6-game skid, and counting just the game he has played the Bluejays are a top ten team in Strength. The Bluejays bounced back from the big Xavier loss with a solid 72-63 win over NC State behind Kalkbrenner's 31 points (10 of 13 FG).   

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Game Analysis: Baylor plays nearly the best offense in the country, but around the #100 defense. That's going to catch up with them at some point before the Final Four, almost certainly. But will it be this game? It's probably going to be a very close one.

One interesting aspect is rebounding. On Creighton's side of the court both teams are poor at rebounding. That changes on the other side, where Baylor is excellent on offensive rebounding and Creighton the same on defense. Creighton's defense doesn't go for steals at all and defends the 2-point almost exclusively, which will leave Baylor's potent 3-point shots open. This is bad news for Creighton.

On the other hand, Creighton shoots 55% from inside the arc and Baylor is awful at defending the 2. Creighton is a much taller team with 7-1 Kalkbrenner who will match with 6-10 Flo Thamba at center. Both teams like to shoot the 3 a lot but the Bluejays may find more success on the inside.

And of course a close game often comes down to free throws. Creighton shoots over 77%, while Baylor shoots just under 75%. Even that makes it too close to call.

Vegas Line:

Baylor by   1 1/2

Power rating: spread

Creighton by   0.1

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Baylor:      48.9% 
Creighton:   51.1% 

Damn, that's a razor-tight game. The sportsbooks favor Baylor by a point and a half but Strength calls it a tossup or multi-overtime game with Creighton a 51% favorite. Looking at the other power ratings, Pomeroy has Creighton a 1-point favorite and the BPI has Baylor by 0.3 with the Bears a 51.2% favorite! Love it.

Historically the 3-seed wins about 61% of the time so Creighton is clearly a strong 6-seed as we've mentioned. 

Bottom line: Sticking with Creighton to advance as planned. It's going to be a close one.

Final prediction:  Creighton 74,  Baylor 71

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (4) UConn vs. (5) St. Mary's

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

UConn Huskies
Seed: 4
Record: 26-8
Conference: Big East

vs.

St. Mary's Gaels
Seed: 5
Record: 27-7
Conference: West Coast

Date: Sunday, March 19
Time: 6:10 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Albany, NY  
Channel: TNT

 

The #1 offensive rebounding team meets the #2 defensive rebounding team.

     UConn                              St. Mary's

Power Ratings

Strength:          #6              Strength:          #11
   Median:   #7                       Median:   #14
   Markov:   #4                       Markov:   #16
Pomeroy:           #4              Pomeroy:           #11
   Offense:  #6                       Offense:  #40
   Defense:  #18                      Defense:  #9
BPI:               #6              BPI:               #18
LRMC:              #4              LRMC:              #15

Other Measures:

SOS:               #51             SOS:               #59    
Tempo (Offense):   #230            Tempo (Offense):   #359
Consistency:       #218            Consistency:       #180
Str + Reliability: #4              Str + Reliability: #10
Str + Potential:   #7              Str + Potential:   #17

2nd half season:   #13             2nd half season:   #15
Last 6:            #5              Last 6:            #48
Injury Mod Rank:   #5              Injury Mod Rank:   #13

MegaScreen Ranking                 MegaScreen Ranking
  Final 4:  NA                      Final 4:  #10
  Sweet 16: #6                      Sweet 16: #14

UConn is about the best 4-seed you'll find. For a while they were the best team in the country, no doubt, and despite losing quite a few they remain in the top ten in every power rating, including #4 in Pomeroy and LRMC. At #6 in Strength and BPI, they are at least as good as a 2-seed. Another sign of how good they really are is the fact that both their offense and defense rank in the top 20 in Pomeroy.

Then there's St. Mary's, a 5-seed in name but also having the profile of a better seed, maybe about a 3. The Gaels are close to UConn in Strength and Pomeroy and have better defensive play, though their offense lags the Huskies. This game is more appropriate for a Sweet Sixteen contest, not a Round of 32 clash to decide who gets there (the West is clearly the most stacked region and it's not even close).

Both teams made the MegaScreen's Sweet Sixteen with UConn way ahead, but only St. Mary's showed up as a possible Final Four team interestingly.

Season overview: Connecticut

• Wins vs. tournament teams (7): =(1)Alabama+15, =(6)Iowa St.+18, (6)Creighton+9, (2)Marquette+15, (11)Providence+18, =(11)Providence+7, =(13)Iona+24
  
• Losses to tournament teams (6): @(3)Xavier-10, @(11)Providence-12, @(2)Marquette-6, (3)Xavier-3, @(6)Creighton-3, =(2)Marquette-2
• Other losses (2): St. John's-11, @Seton Hall-1

Overview: As mentioned UConn was the best team in the country until late December; they had beaten 1-seed Alabama 82-67and 6-seed Iowa State in Portland and raced to a 14-0 start. But around game 13 they downshifted a gear it seems; the wins over Georgetown (84-73) and Villanova (74-66) at home weren't dominant. Sure enough, losses followed, most but not all to tournament teams. In all they lost 6 of 8 before slowly recovering their mojo. Finally at the end they put together another solid win streak of six games that ended in a 2-point loss to 2-seed Marquette. Have they truly regained their early season form? 

6-9 forward Adam Sanogo is the team's leader in points (16.8) and rebounds (7.3). The Huskies are a tall team, who often have every player on the court at 6-5 or over and also have a 7-2 backup center. UConn beat Ioan behind Sanogo's 28 points (on 13 of 17 shooting).

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Season overview: St. Mary's

• Wins vs. tournament teams (5): (12)Oral Roberts+8, (15)Vermont+26, =(5)San Diego St.+7, (3)Gonzaga+OT, =(12)VCU+12
  
• Losses to tournament teams (3): @(1)Houston-5, @(3)Gonzaga-9, =(3)Gonzaga-26
• Other losses (4): =Washington-OT, New Mexico-4, Colorado St.-2, @Loyola Marymount-OT

Overview: St. Mary's started 6-0 against a decent schedule, with wins over 12-seed Oral Roberts and a 63-33 beatdown of North Texas (game 3), and a 76-48 win over Hofstra (game 5). They lost three in a row, however, including a 53-48 loss to 1-seed Houston in Fort Worth, Texas. They beat 5-seed San Diego State in Phoenix but lost to Colorado State at home. The Gaels then won 12 straight, ending with a home win over 3-seed Gonzaga and including a win over the Academy of Art (yes the Academy of Art has a basketball team). They were upset by Loyola Marymount in overtime—their 2nd overtime loss out of 7 total—and fell to Gonzaga twice, road and neutral court. The latter was their worst loss and contributes heavily to their poor "last six games" showing.

Logan Johnson leads the team with 14.7 points per game and 3.7 assists. The Gaels bounced back from the Gonzaga loss by beating VCU 63-51 led by Alex Ducas and Mitchell Saxon scoring 17 each.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: What a great game. Too bad it's coming so early, but there's going to be a lot of that in the West region: teams playing seemingly a round too early.

UConn's claim to fame is being #1 in offensive rebounding, which is what powers their offense along with pretty good shooting. But St. Mary's counters with being the #2 defensive rebounding team! Something's gotta give. The tiebreaker here is probably SOS, because this stat isn't corrected for opponents. But UConn's SOS of #51 and St. Mary's #59 are pretty close, too, so the stats are comparable. UConn is a bit vulnerable to steals on offense so that might give the Gaels an edge on this side of the court.

When St. Mary's has the ball UConn has a big advantage in defending shots, as the Gaels are a decent but not great shooting team. The Huskies tend to foul a lot but the Gaels shoots just 69% from the foul line. They're vulnerable to blocked shots, too, and UConn's defense deals those out a lot.

UConn will be playing very close to home in Albany, whereas St. Mary's is three time zones away from home.

Vegas Line:

UConn by   3 1/2

Power rating: spread

UConn by   3.3

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Connecticut:  59.9% 
St. Mary's:   40.1% 

4-seeds win about 55% of the time so UConn's odds are actually a bit ahead of history's verdict. Vegas almost exactly matches Strength with their estimate, but I wonder if a bit of home court edge is appropriate due to the huge distance discrepancy between these teams (130 miles vs. 2,900 miles). The Gaels should be over their jet lag by now but I'm sure crowd support is going to the Huskies.

Bottom line: A great matchup, too bad both teams can't advance to the Sweet Sixteen. I kind of hate these things. Even though I picked St. Mary's to get upset, it was a clear upset pick, they're a great team. But I had UConn advancing and pick them here, with close-to-home court urging them on.

Final prediction: UConn 67, St. Mary's 60

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.