Boxing/MMA

Rogers is right: Fedor is sloppy

Brett Rogers got a lot of attention for saying Fedor Emelianenko can be a sloppy fighter. The thing is, is that Rogers is right. Good as Fedor is, he doesn't have flawless fights. Sometimes they are ugly.

“His weakness? He can get sloppy. He can get sloppy when he’s standing, because he throws too many combinations and he puts his hands down, that’s one thing that I see. He likes to flurry and he leaves himself open. And he ducks his head a lot too.”

It's not Fedor's standup fighting where his makes most of his mistakes, though, it's in his grappling. For every amazing move he pulls off, he gets into trouble.

• Against Kevin Randleman, the famous body slam
• Against Mark Hunt, getting caught on the bottom of side mount after flubbing a takedown
• Against Hong Man Choi. Don't tell me he really wanted to end up with Choi on top.
• In many (mostly early) fights, where his ground moves are reversed

The thing is, Fedor just moves on to the next thing. He doesn't dwell on what went wrong, he just changes the game plan based on the new situation.

Rogers wants to cause Fedor to be sloppy, and if he does it won't be anything new. But he has to go the next step and capitalize on the mistake like no one has so far. Rogers definitely has a chance. MMA is a very unpredictable sport. But if he wins the jury will still be out as to whether it was a fluke. With only 10 fights (all wins) it's hard to say how good he really is. Beating Fedor would be huge, but in this sport anyone can beat anyone on a given day. That Fedor's managed such a winning streak is remarkable, but all streaks end.

Rogers will be the big news in MMA if he can pull it off tonight. If he's counting on Fedor to fight him sloppy—especially in stand up, rather than taking it to the ground—he's banking on what has been a losing strategy for all of Fedor's opponents over the last several years.

Haye beats Valuev, jumps into top 5; Sexton also in top ten next month

With David Haye's win over Nicolay Valuev, he will jump into the top 5 in the SportsRatings Heavyweight Top 100 for November. Here's a sneak peek at how the ratings are likely to change.

last mo.	Rank	Fighter	Rating	Rated Record	Recent Results
1	1	WLAD KLITSCHKO	64.58	31-3-0
2	2	VITALI KLITSCHKO	40.09	20-2-0
4	3	ALEX POVETKIN	31.93	12-0-0
5	4	RUSLAN CHAGAEV	29.72	11-1-0
25	5	DAVID HAYE	29.26	3-0-0	W12 #3 NICOLAY VALUEV
6	6	EDDIE CHAMBERS	28.60	13-1-0
3	7	NICOLAY VALUEV	24.78	21-2-0	L12 #25 DAVID HAYE
12	8	SAM SEXTON	20.63	4-0-0	W7 #41 MARTIN ROGAN
7	9	DAVID TUA	20.22	25-3-1
8	10	OLEG PLATOV	18.92	6-0-0

Valuev falls to #7, the lowest he's been in years. Sam Sexton should jump into the top 10 after beating Martin Rogan for the second straight time.

Overall the top ten is sizing up pretty well, now that Tua is active again and new fighters are making their way in.

Haye's first WBA defense will be against John Ruiz, unless he pulls something unexpected.

David Haye vs. Nicolay Valuev: Results: Haye wins majority decision

#25 David Haye takes on #3 Nicolay Valuev for the WBA title. Haye is looking to join the top 5 in the SportsRatings rankings with a win; Valuev hopes to hold on to his #3 rating.

It will be Haye's speed vs. Valuev's size. Valuev at 7 feet tall has a strong chin and a knack for winning close, controversial decisions, especially in Germany where this fight is taking place. Primarily a jabbing fighter, Valuev doesn't have the power you'd expect of a big man but with 320 pounds behind his arms even a jab can cause damage.

Haye has become as famous for his mouth as his boxing. After dominating the cruiserweight division Haye moved up to heavyweight and beat Monte Barrett, giving him a 2-0 record among registered heavyweights. Haye had great power for a cruiserweight but hurting Valuev will be a challenge. One huge advantage he will have is speed, as he may be the fastest heavyweight currently fighting.

Undercard results so far:

• Kubrat Pulev defeats #105 Gbenga Oloukun in a 6-round unanimous decision

Unheralded Pulev, only 2-0 coming in, will be in next month's Top 100

• Edmund Gerber KO #67 Shawn McLean in round one

McLean, only 4-5 now, burst upon the scene by handing Faruq Saleem his first loss; now he is easily handled in the first round Gerber, a 9-0 German fighter. Doesn't reflect well on Saleem!

• #78 Robert Helenius TKO #52 Taras Bidenko in the 4th round

Another slight upset, as Helenius remains unbeaten at 10-0 as he steps up his level of competition. A big, strong fighter with a pretty bright future.

• Alexander Frenkel TKO #347 Kelvin Davis in the 1st round

No surprise here; since dropping to cruiserweight Davis has been a consistent loser, including 6 fights in a row, while Frenkel moves to 21-0. Frenkel is unranked as he hasn't fought any heavyweight opponents.

• #53 John Ruiz TKO Adnan Serin in round 7

Ruiz doesn't help himself in the ratings for beating Serin, but keeps himself fresh for his guaranteed challenge to the winner of Valuev/Haye.

• #64 Sergei Lyakhovich vs. Jeremy Bates: cancelled? or may be after the main event?

Haye and Valuev are being introduced; fight will start in about 10 minutes. Haye looks focused. Valuev looks giant as usual. His shockingly hot wife is at ringside.

Round by round summary:

1. Haye keeping his distance early, little contact in the first minute. Haye still trying to find the right distance, Valuev trying to jab but Haye staying out of range. One body shot from Haye; trying to stay off ropes. Hardly anything landed all round, much like the Holyfield fight. Hard to give this one to Haye but Valuev landed nothing. Haye 10-9
2. Round 2 much like round one. Lots of moving around, not a lot of action of punches connecting. To be fair this one should go to Valuev. 10-9, Overall 19-19
3. Still more non-action. If the fight keeps going like this it will be another Holyfield-like decision.  I can't score fights like this, something has to happen. 10-10, overall 29-29
4. At least in the early rounds Haye is not "taking the fight to Valuev." Maybe his strategy is to wear the champ down by moving a lot in the early rounds, then attack later? Let's hope so. Valuev keeps trying to trap him by the ropes but Haye is having nothing to do with that. Still, Valuev is the more active his round. There's not much else to score by. Haye occasionally bursts in for a body shot or flurry but it doesn't appear anything's connecting. Valuev 10-9, overall 39-38 Valuev.
5. Haye is doing far less than even Holyfield did, and Valuev is hitting Haye less than he hit Holyfield. Haye is even avoiding the jab at all costs. I'm not sure if Haye thinks he can win on points, or if he's thinking later round KO? Because a points win is questionable in Germany to start with, and morese when he literally gives no reason to be winning rounds. Valuev actually connected a few punches late in the round. Valuev 10-9, overall: Valuev 49-47
6. Valuev missing with everything as Haye stays out of range. Haye keeping his guard down but he's three feet out of range. Haye jumps in for a few body shots; Valuev tried to corner him. Haye with a right cross. Each punch connected is an event in this fight. Haye might have taken this one. 10-9. Overall Valuev 58-57
7. Haye is not winning many converts with the fight. More slow, boring action for most of the round. Finally near the end they exchange a bit; Haye might have been slightly cut on the eye, hard to tell from which shot but Valuev hit him flush on an exchange, and Haye got in a few shots as well that made Valuev shake his head. 10-10, overall 68-67 Valuev.
8. The fight settles back to its normal, boring self, with Haye out of reach and Valuev unable to close the distance or trap Haye. Good Haye counters at the end, Valuev chasing him down. Haye 10-9 just for the end. Overall 77-77, because this fight is unscorable.
9. Last 1/3 of the fight, will Haye break out a new strategy? Because he can't be thinking he's going to win the way he's going. Didn't he watch the Holyfield fight? Maybe so, and that's what he's copying. He certainly hasn't done what Chagaev did against Valuev. Valuev landed a jab and Haye had his best counter of the night; Valuev was unfazed though. Haye wins for the one combo he had the whole round. Haye 10-9, overall Haye 87-86.
10. A little more urgency from both fighters, but not resulting in more punches connecting. Only the last 10 seconds saw much action, with Valuev chasing a bit faster and some wild punches from both sides. 10-10, overall Haye 97-96
11. Valuev chasing; Haye didn't throw a punch in the first minute of the round. Haye just can't solve the problem of Valuev's size and reach, and Valuev can't deal with Haye's elusiveness. Haye seems to think he won that round but he ran for most of it and Valuev may have gotten the better of the exchanges. Valuev 10-9, just so that the fight is tied so the last round seems exciting. 106-106
12. More dancing from Haye. Valuev looks like he wants to hit Haye. Valuev with a wild swing that misses. Haye misses with his own big punch. Haye with a good counter. Haye connects with his best punches of the night, finally being aggressive. Hits Valuev in the back of the head. Connects again--why wasn't he doing this all night? Easily Haye's best round. He had Valuev staggered for a second. Haye 10-9, overall Haye 116-115

The scoring could easily go either way, even without the Germany advantage Valuev enjoys. It certainly didn't look like more of a win than Holyfield seemed to have, and was well short of Chagaev's win. Chagaev had several rounds as good as Haye's 12th round.

Basically, the winner will be whoever they want to hold the title. Haye fought a boring fight for 11 rounds before finally doing in the 12th what he claimed he would do for the whole match: fight rather than run. And it worked for him. Haye seems confident of getting the decision; I wouldn't be. Neither outcome would surprise me at all, though if Haye wins I will be a bit amazed.

First card: 114-114

Second and Third Cards: 116-112 116-112: David Haye

Haye gets the decision. WOW.

Haye gets a belt but won't win many fans with his performance. Only for a few moments in the 12th round did he take the fight to Valuev. Other than that he was scared of even Valuev's jab. Valuev couldn't get close enough to even get the few jabs he got against Holyfield.

Martin Rogan vs. Sam Sexton results: Sexton wins 7th round stoppage

#41 Martin Rogan vs. #12 Sam Sexton

Rogan, who lost a controversial stoppage against Sexton month ago, looks to redeem himself and continue his unlikely run up the heavyweight boxing rankings. Sexton will attempt to jump into the top ten in next month's rankings with a win.

Sexton showed better technical skills last time out than Rogan, but Rogan had more heart and a stronger chin than the younger fighter. Sexton had to stall, spitting out his mouth guard, to avoid getting KOed while Rogan let Sexton off the hook when Sexton appeared unsteady on his feet. Rogan's face took a lot of punishment, though, and it's that which led to the stoppage when Rogan's eye was too swollen. The fight was stopped and a rematch ordered.

Sexton is just 25 while Rogan is 38; both have about the same amount of ring experience, both at 12-1. Rogan has fought much better competition, however, beating Audley Harrison and Matt Skelton before fighting Sexton. Rogan is by far Sexton's best opponent. Both fighters won a separate version of the Prizefighter heavyweight boxing tournament.

Round by Round scoring:

1. Rogan comes out aggressive, trying to scor in the clinch. Sexton is cautious. Rogan throws a wild punch and slips to the canvas, no knockdown. Rogan chasing Sexton, who throws a strong combination. Sexton keeping Rogan in the clinch when close; ref warns both of them. Overall Sexton fought a better round, Rogan was a bit careless though he was the agressor. Sexton 10-9.
2. Rogan keeping more distance to star the 2nd round, but quickly closes in. Sexton being calm, waiting for openings, not being flustered by Rogan's tactics. Rogan going to the body a lot in the clinch. Rogan did a bit more this round, but Sexton's plan looks better at this point. Rogan 10-9, overall: 19-19
3. Sexton waiting for Rogan and countering, again clinching whenever Rogan closes. Rogan misses with a huge right. Rogan continues stalking. Sexton jabbing. More clinching, body shots. Sexton fires back some big shots, Rogan clinches. Round was all Rogan until the final 1/2 minute when Rogan got rocked. 10-10, overall 29-29
4. Slower fourth round so far one minute in. Rogan a bit less agressive. Rogan tees off close in, Sexton covers well. Sexton preserving his energy well; fighters exchange blows close in. Rogan 10-9, Overall: Rogan 39-38
5. Rogan connects well, warned by ref about hitting back of head in clinch. Rogan going for kill, Sexton weathers the storm, comes back strong with straight jabs. Sexton warned by ref for headbutts. Rogan has cut over eye from headbutt. Exciting round, Rogan chasing Sexton, pro-Rogan crowd cheering. Rogan using a lot of energy pounding away at Sexton. Rogan 10-9; Overall Rogan 49-47.
6. Sexton looks recovered, jabbing and punching well, htting Rogan, who fires back. Sexton jabbing well, Rogan missing long shots. Rogan tired from last round. Sexton controlling the round. Rogan fires back but he's very tired now, taking lots of shots. Big round for Sexton, almost a 10-8 but not quite. 10-9, Overall Rogan 58-57.

Rogan's corner has stopped the fight, Sexton is the winner. Kind of shocking, but Rogan did look completely burned out in the final round. Rogan had a "damaged left arm" according to the announcement which forced his retirement.

With the win Sexton will jump into the top ten; it will be interesting to see what he can do against other top heavyweights, as he seems very easy to put into a bad spot.

Rogan's climb would seem to be over with his second loss in a row at age 38. If he had won the first fight—which he should have—he would have had a really big fight in store, but now it's questionable whether he'll continue.

McCall tops Whitaker, Ademek stops Golota in five

Oliver McCall, SportsRatings' #22 ranked heavyweight, defeated Lance Whitaker on a unanimous but close decision Friday night.

And Saturday evening in Poland, former cruiserweight champ Tomasz Ademek beat Andrew Golota in a fifth-round stoppage.

McCall came out strong and attacked Whitaker from the bell, flooring him in the first round. But Whitaker recovered and with McCall somewhat spent, managed to hold on and keep the rest of the fight mostly even. All three judges called the fight identically, 95-94 for McCall. Subtract a 10-8 first round and Whitaker won five of the remaining rounds to McCall's 4. Still, McCall continues his unlikely comeback at age 44, and has a good chance of moving into the top 20.

Ademek outboxed Golota from the start, as the latter looked tired, out of shape, and slow. Meanwhile Ademek was fit, quick, and creative with his combinations. By the third round Ademek was clearly in control as Golota was looking only for the big punch that he couldn't connect. In the fourth round Ademek scored big with a long flurry, though Golota didn't look hurt. In the fifth round a sweet combination knocked Golota to the canvas. Not long after the fight was stopped as Golota seemed unwilling to fight back or protect himself.

McCall's win over Whitaker doesn't say much for either man; though McCall is winning lately he doesn't look capable of rising much farther or getting a title shot if he can't dominate Whitaker. Whitaker, of course, has to consider packing it in if he can't beat a 44-year-old fighter.

Ademek looked skillful and sharp but seemed to lack power that he'd need to go far as a heavyweight. He also didn't take any real shots to test his chin at the higher division. He hasn't decided whether he'll remain at cruiser or move up; this fight didn't give him any real clues as to what he should do. Money will probably determine his next move.

Golota, on the other hand, has to be done after that non-performance. In all the pre-fight photos he looked terrible, slouched over and out of shape. He came in at his highest weight and probably was in this affair, which was a big deal in Poland, for the money. He looked so different than any version of Golota I've seen that I wonder if he trained for the fight, or whether he might have an alcohol problem. He looked tired, sluggish, and out of shape, with none of the skills he showed not even that long ago. His reactions were slow, his defense poor; Golota should retire.

Prizefighter results: Audley Harrison wins tournament; Danny Williams upset in round one

Audley Harrison began his comeback attempt with three solid victories to win the Prizefighter III Heavyweight tournament Friday, though all three wins were over unheralded competition. Danny Williams, the co-tourney favorite, was upset in the first round by Carl Baker.

Harrison beat tall but limited Scott Belshaw by a 2nd round TKO, then won a unanimous decision over big Danny Hughes to get to the final. Hughes had defeated Neil Perkins in a battle of undefeated but inexperienced heavyweights.

On the other side of the draw Danny Williams suffered a first-round loss to Carl Baker. As some observers had expected Williams started slow and was unable to make up lost ground though he had Baker in trouble in round three. The other quarterfinal match saw undefeated Coleman Barrett upset Scott Gammer; Barrett then beat Baker for his 10th win, and his second against a fighter ranked by SportsRatings.

Harrison, however, was too much for Barrett, who lost in a 2nd round TKO. Here is how the brackets resolved themselves:

Williams---|                                
           |---Baker dec.---|               
Baker------|                |               
                            |--Barrett dec.--|
Gammer-----|                |                |
           |--Barrett dec.--|                |
Barrett----|                                 |    Harrison TKO
                                             |-------------------
Harrison---|                                 |
           |--Harrison TKO--|                |
Belshaw----|                |                |
                            |--Harrison dec.-|
Hughes-----|                |
           |---Hughes dec.--|
Perkins----|

Barrett was the only non-ranked fighter who ended up part of the SportsRatings rankings system, while Williams, the only fighter in the October heavyweight top 100, will fall out of the top 100 while Harrison will rejoin the list. Here is how the prominent fighters' rankings will likely change as a result of Friday's action:

Fighter           Prev rank  Projected Rank
Danny Williams      #42          #111
Audley Harrison     #137         #55               
Carl Baker          #210         #146
Scott Gammer        #236         #272
Coleman Barrett     ----         #121                        

Baker, Barrett, and Harrison all move up quite a bit, while Williams and Gammer slide for their first-round defeats. The actual rankings will depend on what other action occurs in October, but Harrison will be the only fighter from the tourney in the top 100.

Tua-Cameron Round by Round Results

David Tua (ranked #7 in the latest SportsRatings heavyweight rankings) takes on #117 Shane Cameron in New Zealand. Tua is 49-3-1 to Cameron's 23-1-0 record.

Before the introductions, a bell was rung twelve times for the victims of the recent Samoan earthquake/tsunami. The Samoan national anthem followed, then the New Zealand national anthem "God Defend New Zealand" sung by Howard Morrisson Jr. whose father recently passed.

Introductions began with Tua entering the ring first to very mellow Samoan music. Looking very muscular and relaxed. Now dancing around the ring. Cameron enters to a hip-hop version of Kenny Rogers "The Gambler." Unlike Tua he has a light robe on, one more typical of a martial artist. Also carries his minor regional belts that Tua covets. The crowd sounds roughly evenly divided between Tua and Cameron supporters, perhaps more cheering for Cameron with more booing him as well.

• Round One: Jabs from Cameron, keeping Tua at distance. Tua is moving his head, looking for openings, seeing what Cameron is offering. Tua lands a soft left to the head. Tua connects with a combination. Cameron throwing more, Tua throwing very few punches but all have hit. Tua misses with huge left hook. TUA knocks Cameron down. Cameron beats count but Tua comes in and levels him again...Cameron back up but ref called time (perhaps to examine Cameron?) and round ended. The first knockdown was set up by a strong left after which Tua chased Cameron to the ropes, for the second one Tua pinned him to the ropes again and unloaded. Tua 10-7.
• Round Two: Tua presses action and unloads immediately with ungodly punches...Cameron is taking everything and not giving back...referee finally steps in as Cameron collapses to the canvas. Tua wins by TKO just 7 seconds into round two. Tua by TKO

During the 2nd 1st round knockdown one of the announcers felt Tua could have been disqualified for hitting Cameron after he had fallen to one knee, but the action was so fast I don't think that's relevant. Or maybe he was saying that Cameron hadn't really beaten the count? I'm not sure.

Cameron took a huge amount of punishment in a short amount of time in all three knockdowns, eating about 15 huge shots at the beginning of round two, only staying up because the power of the punches had him backed into the ropes. Awesome display of power by Tua, just as we had expected, though not necessarily so early in the fight. If this doesn't stir interesting in Tua then nothing will.

Tua-Cameron undercard results: Tauasa loses; Pounceby in draw; Wilson KOs Hopoate

There are six fights on the Tua-Cameron undercard, three of which are relevant to the SportsRatings heavyweight rankings: The heavyweight clash between John Hopoate and Colin Wilson; the cruiserweight battle between Lawrence Tauasa vs. Daniel Ammann; and even the light heavyweight bout between Soulan Pounceby and Shane Chapman.

In the latest SportsRatings heavyweight ratings out October 1st Hopoate is ranked #150 against Wilson's #181, but the lower weight-class fighters are actually ranked higher. Tauasa is ranked #144 due to a victory against heavyweight Richard Tutaki in 2007, and amazingly light heavyweight Pounceby is in the top 100 at #91 after beating Bob Gasio in July by unanimous decision. Note that lower weight-division fighters don't score points for beating non-heavyweights, but can lose points for losing any fight.

Daniel Ammann vs. #144 Lawrence Tauasa

The first round was basically even as Ammann countered well but Tauasa pushed the action and had the harder blows; 10-10. The same pattern followed for rounds two and three as Tauasa hit with hard shots; Ammann covered up to weather those, then responded with his own. Both rounds were close but I gave to Tauasa, who leads 30-28 after three. Round four was a pivotal round as Ammann stayed active and Tauasa punched less; though he still had the harder shots they were fewer and Ammann won it clearly, and the same pattern to a lesser extent continued through the fifth round, tying the score at 48-48. The final round saw Tauasa go a long time without scoring as Ammann peppered him with shot after shot. Pretty clearly the last round went to Ammann, who had the only two clear rounds of the fight.

Amman won a unanimous decision by a wide margin on all scorecards but the fight was very close almost every round. The judges clearly gave Ammann the earlier rounds based on quantity of punches. Tauasa will fall further away from the top 100 as a result of the loss, but Ammann will not be ranked as the fight was fought at cruiserweight.

Shane Chapman vs. #91 Soulan Pounceby

Chapman is a Muay Thai fighter and thus is a somewhat unorthodox fighter, and very aggressive. Pounceby shows good movement and dances well. The first round is close as the fighters feel each other out but Pounceby generally controlled the action, 10-9. Round two saw Chapman being more agressive and at one point cornering Pounceby and scoring. 10-9 Chapman (19-19). Late in the third round there was a bad inadvertant clash of heads that opened up a bad cut on Chapman's eye.

The fight was stopped late in the third, ruled an accidental headbutt; the fight is ruled a technical draw. Pounceby will likely drop out of the Top 100 due to a draw with a light heavyweight fighter; his presence in the top 100 was somewhat of a fluke anyway.

#150 John Hopoate vs. #181 Colin Wilson

Fight nearly ready to start...Wilson is 6' 5" and 260 lbs, Hopoate only 10 pounds lighter at just 6' 0". Hopoate is 12-3-0 to Wilson's 34-25-1.

First round: Hopoate scaring Wilson away with big rights, and Wilson jabbing in a low-action first round. Hopoate just flipped Wilson out of the clinch onto his back, eliciting a warning. Wilson is unhurt, but strikes Hopoate with a low blow. Hard to score that round so I'll punt. 10-10.

Second round: Wilson gets some jabs in, Hopoate gets a good right in and backs Wilson to the ropes. Hopoate is rarely punching but when he does Wilson looks troubled and covers up. Hopoate missed with a big uppercut. Wilson hitting with straight lefts but they don't hurt Hopoate. In the final 10 seconds Wilson scores multiple times unanswered, leaving the second round questionable as well. 20-20.

Third round: Big right hand from Hopoate crashes Wilson to the ground. Eight count for Wilson. Wilson just hanging on under assault, holding on to Hopoate. Wilson stabilized by middle of round, and Hopoate tired himself going for the kill. WILSON knocks Hopoate down with a surprising crashing right! He barely gets up in time and holds on for the last 10 seconds of the round. This fight is scoring nightmare. 30-30.

Fourth Round: Huge shots exchanged by both fighters. Wilson slips to ground, no knockdown. 1:00 in Wilson knocks down Hopoate with a big combination and a left to the chin and he's not getting up! Amazing.

Wilson wins in round four by KO; Wilson will move up but won't be near the top 100. Hopoate loses his second fight by KO out of three after the loss to Oliver McCall in May.

Williams, Harrison big Prizefighter heavyweight tournament favorites

SportsRatings' analysis makes Danny Williams the heavy favorite in the latest Prizefighter tournament Friday, with Audley Harrison also likely to make the finals. Williams is 67% favorite to win their fourth clash should they meet, and an overall 54% favorite to win the tournament to Harrison's 20%. The large discrepancy is mostly due to Williams' easier path to the final round.

Williams ranks #42 in the latest SportsRatings Heavyweight Top 100, the only fighter ranked in the top 100. Harrison is currently #137. Since the rankings are backward-looking rather than forward looking, and there are a number of reasons why Harrison could fare better in a 3-round matchup, I've also included numbers where the Williams-Harrison fight is a 50/50 proposition; however this doesn't much affect the overall odds of winning: Williams falls to around 49% and Harrison raises to 25%.

Prizefighter cumulative odds (odds of reaching Round 2, Round 3, and Winning; final column oddsmakers)

Fighter  rnd2 rnd3  win          oddsmakers
Williams 87%  76%  53.8% (49.1%)   39.7%
Harrison 70%  44%  20.4% (25.1%)   37.9%
Gammer   63%  30%  11.6%            8.0%
Barrett  37%  13%   3.8%            3.2%
Belshaw  30%  13%   3.8%            2.5%
Hughes   58%  11%   3.2%            4.0%
Baker    13%   7%   1.8%            2.0%
Perkins  42%   6%   1.4%            2.5%

The oddsmakers call Williams and Harrison roughly even, but we see a tougher draw for Harrison in his first two matches. Note the difference in the second column; Williams is nearly guaranteed a spot in the finals with a 76% likelihood. However this isn't a subjective analysis that takes into account factors such as fighting style, or weight, two concerns that have been brought up against Williams.

Gammer is the #3 choice by both SportsRatings and the oddsmakers, with the other fighters having very slim chances by both accounts.
 

Contestant Profiles
 

#137 Audley Harrison (23-4) vs Scott Belshaw (10-2): 70% for Harrison

Audley Harrison beat Williams by KO in 2006 after losing to him in 2005 by unanimous decision. He also lost to Dominick Guinn, Michael Sprott (who was scheduled to be in the competition but pulled out for personal reasons), and most recently Martin Rogan. A great disappointment to British boxing fans after his Olympic Gold medal, Harrison has vowed to make this tournament his comeback.

Scott Belshaw's highest-profile fight was a loss to Tyson Fury, a one-sided bout where Belshaw didn't try to do much. He also lost to journeyman Daniil Peretyatko on points in six rounds. He is big (6-7") and that could cause some problems if he is actually active in the short fight.

#236 Scott Gammer (18-4-1) vs Coleman Barrett (8-0): 63% for Gammer

Scott Gammer beat Micky Steeds and Mark Krence twice each, and Roman Bugaj en route to a 17-0 start; he's now 18-4, losing to Danny Williams, John McDermott, Francesco Pianeta, and Robert Helenius. He also holds a win over Carl Baker from 2004.

Gammer is 25 pounds heavier than undefeated Coleman Barrett, the lightest fighter in the draw. Barrett has faced only one opponent with a winning record (15-14-1 Valery Semishkur).

#42 Danny Williams (41-7) vs #210 Carl Baker (8-3): 87% Williams

Danny Williams has by far faced the toughest competition of any of the contestants. He famously defeated Mike Tyson in 2004, and lost to Vitali Klitschko five months later. His other losses are to Julius Francis (1999), Sinan Samil Sam (2003), Michael Sprott (2004), Matt Skelton (2006), Audley Harrison (2006), and most recently to Albert Sosnowski in an 8th round TKO last November.

Other than Tyson, Williams' biggest wins are over three fighters who later beat him: he defeated Sprott twice and Harrison and Skelton once each before losing the rematches. He beat Kali Meehan in 2001, and most recently twice defeated John McDermott in close contests. He faced current #8 Oleg Platov but their 2007 bout was declared a No Contest due to a Platov cut.

Williams weighed in at almost 270 pounds, but that's roughly the same weight he carried for both the Tyson and Klitschko fights. He's been as high as 288 (July 2006) and as low recently as 228 (March 2007).

Carl Baker made the rankings by beating Paul King; he then lost to tomato can Luke Simpkin by TKO but avenged that loss on points. Before beating King he lost to him, and also lost to Gammer. He enters with a four-match winning streak.

Neil Perkins (4-0) vs Danny Hughes (6-0-1): Hughes 58%

Neil Perkins hasn't beaten a fighter with close to a winning record, and has just 1 KO out of four fights.

Danny Hughes drew with tomato can David Ingleby but won a rematch. He also has just one TKO and hasn't defeated a winning fighter.

Both fighters are 6'5", but Perkins weighed in at just 231 pounds while Hughes carries 263. That's Perkins' heaviest fighting weight and Hughes' lowest. Hughes has been fighting longer and has a few more under his belt so we give him the edge.

Alternates: Surprisingly both alternates are ranked in SportsRatings' system while many of the official contestants aren't. But since the tournament tries to give relative newcomers a shot, it's not unusual that the alternates (who will step into the bracket if a winning fighter is injured) are journeyman types who have had their moments.

#89 Lee Swaby (24-23-2) - like Gammer he's also most famous as a Tyson Fury victim. But when he beat Butlin in May he became a ranked fighter (and the loss to Fury doesn't count against him). He's not a legit Top 100 fighter but he's been doing better recently.

#362 Paul Butlin (12-10-0) - Enters with a 5-fight losing streak dating back to the last prizefighter heavyweight tournament, where he beat Colin Kenna before losing to David Dolan. Since then he's lost to Paulo Vidoz, Swaby, Derek Chisora, and Johnathan Banks.

Bracket Projections

Here are the brackets (corrected from yesterday's initial post) as we forecast them, with the winner's odds listed:

Williams---|                                
           |--Williams 87%--|               
Baker------|                |               
                            |--Williams 72%--|
Gammer-----|                |                |
           |---Gammer 63%---|                |
Barrett----|                                 |    Williams 67%
                                             |-------------------
Harrison---|                                 |
           |--Harrison 70%--|                |
Belshaw----|                |                |
                            |--Harrison 78%--|
Hughes-----|                |
           |---Hughes 58%---|
Perkins----|

As noted before, if our perhaps-too-kind estimate of Williams over Harrison is reduced to a 50/50 proposition, Williams still has a slighty easier path to the finals. Williams, though, has to face the biggest fighter in the draw in the first round in Carl Baker. This is both a blessing and a curse; it's unlikely that Baker will be too fast for him, but if there's a lot of clinching that's a lot of weight to push around and could be fatigueing. How Williams feels in his own skin may determine if he can win the tournament: if he's a "fit" 270 pounds, he'll win; a lazy 270 and he'll fall somewhere along the line.

Tua to face Shane Cameron in New Zealand

He's had a couple years off but hasn't lost a fight in eight years; in a few short days David Tua will be back, fighting in New Zealand in perhaps the biggest boxing match that country has hosted.

Tua, one of the hardest punchers (and one of the strongest-jawed fighters of modern times) has been in limbo most of the decade, fighting only a few journeymen between two 2-year layoffs: the first for most of 2003 and 2004, the most recent encompassing the majority of 2008 and 2009. Before that Tua made his name with brutal knockouts, victimizing high-profile fighters such as John Ruiz, Hasim Rahman, and Oleg Maskaev. His three losses were all one-sided decisions to Ike Ibeabuchi, Lennox Lewis, and Chris Byrd. He later fought to a draw with Rahman.

His opponent is #117 Shane Cameron, a New Zealand native. Cameron (23-1-0) is 7-1 against registered fighters, but his KO loss against Friday Ahunanya stalled the momentum of his career. Cameron was winning on the cards before he got into trouble in the final round.

Here is Cameron's relevant record:

Date     Result      rank (now) Opponent     Rank (then)
12/2004: Win  by KO  over  #390 SHANE WIJOHN      (#253)
03/2005: Win  by KO  over  #343 AUKLAND AUIMATAGI (#245)
04/2005: Win  by KO  over  #181 COLIN WILSON      (#198)
07/2006: Win  by KO  over  #243 ROGER IZONRITEI   (#117)
03/2007: Win  by KO  over  #377 BOB MIROVIC       (#245)
11/2007: LOSS by KO   to   # 50 FRIDAY AHUNANYA   (#152)
06/2008: Win  by KO  over  #344 KEVIN MONTIY      (#316)
09/2008: Win  by Wu  over  #285 TERRY SMITH       (#245)

Cameron debuted at #97 after beating Wijohn, and subsequent wins over Aukland Auimatagi and Colin Wilson moved him up to #71. He won three inconsequential fights before defeating Roger Izonritei in 2006. His next major fight was a win over Bob Mirovic. Cameron made the top 50 at #50, but it was to be his highest ranking.

The loss to Ahunanya dropped Cameron out of the top 100, and his two wins since then have done little to bolster his rating. None of the fighters he has faced have been ranked in the top 100 at the time, though two of them—Ahunanya and #84 Osborne Machimana, whom he KOed before Machimana was a ranked fighter—are currently in the top 100. The vast majority of his opponents have been from the Australia/New Zealand circuit, in contrast to Tua who has faced some of the best boxers in the world.

Cameron's near-win against Ahunanya shows that he can take on a good fighter and win rounds on points. Tua isn't the greatest boxer by any means, so Cameron can be expected to win rounds throughout the fight. But as he showed in the same battle, he can be knocked out be a decent foe, and Tua has power beyond anyone he's faced. Regardless of any lead he builds during the fight, it's never safe. The question is, can he hold off Tua's left for 12 full rounds? If he can, he likely wins on points, and would make a huge leap into the Top 20, while Tua would fall to nearly out of the top 40, as he's currently a very weak #7. But all Tua has to do is catch Cameron once, and it's probably over.

I expect Tua to win by KO and keep his lofty ranking. What he does with it after this fight no one knows; twice now he's taken over two years off from the ring, and recently had blown up to 300 pounds before cutting down to 235 for this fight. If he prevails over Cameron the 36-year-old should use that momentum for one last run at the heavyweight title; ideally he could take on the Haye-Valuev winner, as either opponent would make an appealing match. More likely he will have to take whatever he can get against other fighters hoping to rebound. And if Cameron, no fledgling at 31 himself, should win he ought to try to get outside of his home country/continent for some more diversified competition.