College Football

SportsRatings subjective Top 25 - week 10

Special this week: presented without commentary!

SportsRatings Top 25 - week ten (thru 11/7/2009)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Florida	9-0	w@LSU13-3
2	2	Texas	9-0	w@OKst41-14,=OK16-13
3	3	Alabama	9-0	w=VTech34-24,LSU24-15
6	4	TCU	9-0	w@BYU38-7
5	5	Boise St	9-0	wOregon19-8
7	6	Cincinnati	9-0	w@USF34-17,@Rut47-15,@OreSt28-18
8	7	Georgia Tech	8-1	L@Miami33-16;wVT28-23,UNC24-7
4	8	Iowa	9-1	L NWest17-10;w@PennSt21-10,Az27-17
13	9	Pittsburgh	8-1	L@NCst38-31;wUSF41-14,@Rut24-17
12	10	Houston	7-1	L@UTEP58-41;w@OKst45-35
9	11	Oregon	7-2	L@Stan51-42,@Boise19-8;wUSC47-20,Utah31-24,Cal42-3
14	12	Miami	7-2	L Clem40-37ot,@VT31-7;wGT33-16,OK21-20
10	13	LSU	7-2	L FLA13-3,@Alabama24-15
15	14	Utah	8-1	L@Oregon31-24
16	15	BYU	7-2	L FSU54-28,TCU38-7;w=OK14-13
17	16	Oklahoma St	7-2	L Houston45-35,Tex41-14
18	17	South Florida	6-2	L Cincy34-17,@Pitt41-14
19	18	Rutgers	6-2	L Cincy47-15,Pitt24-17
20	19	USC	7-2	L@Wash16-13,@Ore47-20;w@OSU18-15,OreSt42-36,@Cal30-3
21	20	Arizona	6-2	L@Wash36-33,@Iowa 27-17;wOreSt37-32
	21	Ohio State	8-2	L@Pur26-18,USC18-15;w@PennSt24-7
22	22	N. Carolina	6-3	L Va16-3,FSU30-27,@GT24-7;w@VT20-17
23	23	Virginia Tech	6-3	L UNC20-17,@GT28-23,=Ala34-24;wMia31-7
11	24	Penn State	8-2	L Iowa 21-10,OSU24-7
	25	Oregon St.	6-3	L Cincy28-18,Ariz37-32,@USC42-36;w@Cal31-14
		out:
25	--	California	6-3	L OreSt31-14,@Oregon42-3,USC30-3
24	--	Oklahoma	5-4	L@Neb10-3,=BYU14-13,@Mia21-20,=Tx16-13

That's all till next week!

SportsRatings subjective top 25 - week 9: Boise State ahead of Oregon, undeniably

Time to shake things up in the top seven? Not quite yet, even with Iowa's struggles. But beyond that I've moved things around a bit, dropping some teams that didn't lose.

#1 Florida looked good and #2 Texas looked great. #3 Alabama didn't play and #4 Iowa looked terrible—until the fourth quarter. The Hawks are still arguably the most accomplished team this year; if they fall from #1 in the Success power rating I might consider moving them down amongst all the undefeated teams. #5 Boise State, #6 TCU, and #7 Cincinnati all beat patsies, but beat them well. The Broncos, if you haven't forgetton—and it seems some people have—beat Oregon earlier this year.

Oregon now has three big wins vs. a loss to an undefeated team, really the best 1-loss résumé in the country, and I've moved them up to #9 just behind fellow 1-loss team Georgia Tech. To do this I needed to bump a few teams down. #12 Houston was an easy choice, as they eeked out another win, and I decided to move Penn State a few spots down due to lack of accomplishment. LSU remains in the top ten and will have to prove it or lose it against Alabama this week.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week nine (thru 10/31/2009)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Florida	8-0	w@LSU13-3
2	2	Texas	8-0	w@OKst41-14,=OK16-13
3	3	Alabama	8-0	w=VTech34-24
4	4	Iowa	9-0	w@PennSt21-10,Az27-17
5	5	Boise St	8-0	wOregon19-8
6	6	TCU	8-0	w@BYU38-7
7	7	Cincinnati	8-0	w@USF34-17,@Rut47-15
8	8	Georgia Tech	8-1	L@Miami33-16;wVT28-23,UNC24-7
12	9	Oregon	7-1	L@Boise19-8;wUSC47-20,Utah31-24,Cal42-3
10	10	LSU	7-1	L FLA13-3
9	11	Penn State	8-1	L Iowa 21-10
11	12	Houston	6-1	L@UTEP58-41;w@OKst45-35
16	13	Pittsburgh	7-1	L@NCst38-31;wUSF41-14,@Rut24-17
17	14	Miami	6-2	L Clem40-37ot,@VT31-7;wGT33-16,OK21-20
18	15	Utah	6-1	L@Oregon31-24
19	16	BYU	6-2	L FSU54-28,TCU38-7;w=OK14-13
13	17	Oklahoma St	6-2	L Houston45-35,Texas41-14
22	18	South Florida	6-2	L Cincy34-17,@Pitt41-14;wWVa30-19
23	19	Rutgers	6-2	L Cincy47-15,Pitt24-17
14	20	USC	6-2	L@Wash16-13,@Oregon47-20;w@Cal30-3
24	21	Arizona	5-2	L@Wash36-33,@Iowa 27-17;wCMich19-6
--	22	N. Carolina	5-3	L Va16-3,FSU30-27,@GT24-7;w@VT20-17
15	23	Virginia Tech	5-3	L UNC20-17,@GT28-23,=Ala34-24;wMia31-7
25	24	Oklahoma	5-3	L=BYU14-13,@Mia21-20,=Tx16-13
--	25	California	6-2	L@Oregon42-3,USC30-3
		out:
20	--	C Michigan	7-2	L@BC31-10,@Arizona19-6
21	--	West Virginia	6-2	L@Auburn41-30,@USF30-19

#13 Pitt has a similar résumé to Houston, while Miami, Utah, and BYU all have their good and bad points, not strong enough to be in the top ten but with better arguments for being ranked high than the teams below them.

Oklahoma State , South Florida, and Rutgers have parallel résumés: A loss to an undefeated team and a top-13 team, and no big wins. USF and Rutgers are almost exactly the same, save that the Bulls are coming off a solid win against West Virginia. The two teams face off on November 12th.

#20 USC took a beating last weekend and now they look strikingly like #21 Arizona: A three-point loss at Washington, and a loss to a top 10 team. USC beat Cal, a borderline top 25 team, while the Wildcats beat Central Michigan, who falls out this week after a bad loss to Boston College.

Virginia Tech lost to North Carolina, and the Tar Heels enter one spot ahead of them; like Oklahoma the Hokies have three losses to top 25 teams but also hold a win over Miami, while the Sooners lost to the 'Canes. 

The last spot goes to Cal, who hasn't beaten anyone but has only lost to good teams. Those were pretty huge losses, though, keeping them at #25. The teams that fall out—Central Michigan and West Virginia—weren't much worse off, but they each had a loss to an unranked team. The Mountaineers have an easy path back in: beat Cincinnati in two weeks. As for the Chippewas, they might have win out to get back in.

The remaining unranked 2-loss teams and their chances for being ranked are:

• Ohio State: losses to USC and Purdue; plays Penn State this weekend, a win gets them in
• Notre Dame: losses to Michigan and USC; could be in next week, certainly if they beat Pitt in 2 weeks.
• Wisconsin: losses to Iowa and Ohio State; easy schedule left, needs to keep winning
• Troy: losses to Bowling Green and Florida; could sneak in if they beat Arkansas in two weeks
• Temple: losses to Villanova and Penn State; probably has to win the MAC to be ranked
• Idaho: losses to Washington and Nevada; weak résumé, but faces Boise State in two weeks(!)

The first three teams will be in soon if they keep winning, while the latter three will take 2nd chair to the better 3-loss teams, due to their very poor losses and overall weak schedules.

SportsRatings subjective top 25 - week 8: Close calls, but no change

This week it was #3 Alabama's turn to look vulnerable, and #2 Texas' week to appear dominant. That, coupled with #1 Florida's ineptitude against Mississippi State, #4 Iowa's last second heroics, and #6 TCU's destruction of BYU...changed nothing.

Close calls come and go, and in the end they're forgotten. The teams that can win move on, the teams that lose get hurt. Otherwise, why keep a W and L column in the first place? Ultimately those are the numbers that count, not 12-9 (Alabama over Tennessee) or 15-13 (Iowa over Michigan State). So the top seven teams remain the same. All have good résumés: no losses and at least one important win.

They won't move, either, until one team separates itself from the pack. Iowa and #7 Cincinnati have two important wins each, but Cincy's are both over borderline top 25 teams, and Arizona is borderline, too. #5 Boise State probably won't add anything to their résumé, so they'd better root for Oregon to keep winning.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week eight (thru 10/24/2009)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Florida	7-0	w@LSU13-3
2	2	Texas	7-0	w=OK16-13,TTech34-24
3	3	Alabama	8-0	w=VTech34-24
4	4	Iowa	8-0	w@PennSt21-10,Az27-17
5	5	Boise St	7-0	wOregon19-8
6	6	TCU	7-0	w@BYU38-7
7	7	Cincinnati	7-0	w@USF34-17,@Rut47-15
12	8	Georgia Tech	7-1	L@Miami33-16;wVT28-23
9	9	Penn State	7-1	L Iowa 21-10
10	10	LSU	6-1	L FLA13-3
11	11	Houston	6-1	L@UTEP58-41;w@OKst45-35,TTech29-28
16	12	Oregon	6-1	L@Boise19-8;wUtah31-24
13	13	Oklahoma St	6-1	L Houston 45-35
15	14	USC	6-1	L@Wash16-13
17	15	Virginia Tech	5-2	L@GT28-23,=Ala34-24;wMia31-7
20	16	Pittsburgh	7-1	L@NCst38-31;wUSF41-14,@Rut24-17
8	17	Miami	5-2	L Clem40-37ot,@VT31-7;wGT33-16,OK21-20
19	18	Utah	6-1	L@Oregon31-24
14	19	BYU	5-2	L FSU54-28,TCU38-7;w=OK14-13
21	20	C Michigan	7-1	L@Arizona19-6
23	21	West Virginia	6-1	L@Auburn41-30
18	22	South Florida	5-2	L Cincy34-17,@Pitt41-14
--	23	Rutgers	5-2	L Cincy47-15,Pitt24-17
--	24	Arizona	5-2	L@Wash36-33,@Iowa 27-17;w CMich19-6
--	25	Oklahoma	4-3	L=BYU14-13,@Mia21-20,=Tx16-13;w@KU35-13
		out:
24	--	Kansas	5-2	L@Colo34-30,OK35-13
22	--	Texas Tech	5-3	L A&M52-30,@Tex34-24,@Hou29-28
25	--	Idaho	6-2	L@Wash42-23,@Nevada70-45

Both #9 Penn State and #10 LSU looked like top ten teams on Saturday and held their spots. Georgia Tech jumped over them since they have a solid win and at this point top ten teams should have that. LSU plays Alabama in a few weeks and Penn State has only Ohio State left on their schedule, so they have less upward potential.

Houston holds after winning again, but is limited by their UTEP loss and with Texas Tech losing one of their big wins is going away. They beat Oklahoma State, which keeps them aloft, especially if the Cowboys can beat Texas next weekend.

#14 USC is in the top five in the national polls, which they don't deserve at all based on what they've done. In fact, there's no good argument for having them ahead of Oregon at this point. The Ducks have lost only to an undefeated team and have a win over Utah, while the Trojans lost to 3-5 Washington (whom Oregon just beat 43-19). Regardless, the pecking order will be resolved when the Ducks host USC next week. If Oregon wins they'll have the best résumé of any 1-loss team

Virginia Tech is the top-rated 2-loss team due to their excusable losses and their win over Miami, who falls from #8 to #17 for their overtime loss to Clemson. Among the remaining 1-loss teams, Pitt rises to #16, Utah moves up a spot after struggling to beat Air Force in overtime, Central Michigan continues to beat MAC opponents and is #20, and West Virginia edged UConn and moves up to #21. 

BYU hangs on at #19, and South Florida falls to #22. Of all the remaining 2-loss teams, only Rutgers and Cal's losses are to top 25 teams. Rutgers' résumé is almost exactly like USF's so they re-enter at #23. Cal's losses were such extreme blowouts that I don't include them. Instead, Pac-10 brethren Arizona, who holds a win over Central Michigan, comes back at #24, and Oklahoma, a 35-13 winner at Kansas, returns at 4-3.

Kansas falls out of the top 25 for the first time this season, while Texas Tech suffers their third loss and drops out a week after re-entering. And Idaho's 1-week run at #25 ends with a big loss to Nevada. They're near the bottom of the list among 2-loss teams due to their easy schedule, but if they beat Boise in a few weeks they'll probably make the AP poll.

SportsRatings subjective Top 25 week 7 - Idaho Vandals make the list

At the mid-point of the season, I'm ranking all the current undefeated teams #1 through #7. To get to their point in the year without a loss is an accomplishment and there are no 1-loss teams that deserve to be ahead of them at this point.

The usual top three—Florida, Texas, and Alabama—can be put in any order. Florida's win over Arkansas was shaky, but they have the only win over a 1-loss team of the trio. Texas barely beat Oklahoma, but since when is that a crime? And Alabama may be the nation's darling, jumping to #1 in the AP poll, but it's hard to argue there's any space between them and the other two teams. It will all come out in the wash over time.

Three of the other four undefeated teams also have a good win on their slate: #4 Iowa over Penn State, #5 Boise State over Oregon, and #7 Cincinnati beat South Florida on Thursday and jumped from #20 last week. Only #6 TCU is in need of a signature win, and they play BYU next week.

Most of the 1-loss teams can be arguably put in just about any order, too; there just isn't enough interplay between the top teams yet. Miami and Penn State remain #8 and #9, while LSU moves up to #10. Of these only the Hurricanes have an important win.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week seven (thru 10/17/2009)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Florida	6-0	w@LSU13-3
2	2	Texas	6-0	wTTech34-24
3	3	Alabama	7-0	w=VTech34-24,SCar20-6
4	4	Iowa	7-0	w@PennSt 21-10
5	5	Boise St	6-0	wOregon19-8
6	6	TCU	6-0
20	7	Cincinnati	6-0	w@USF34-17,@Rutgers47-15
8	8	Miami	5-1	L@VT31-7;wGT33-16
9	9	Penn State	6-1	L Iowa 21-10
11	10	LSU	5-1	L FLA13-3
12	11	Houston	5-1	L@UTEP58-41;w@OKst45-35,TTech29-28
23	12	Georgia Tech	6-1	L@Miami33-16;wVT28-23
13	13	Oklahoma St	5-1	L Houston 45-35
14	14	BYU	5-1	L FSU54-28
16	15	USC	5-1	L@Wash16-13;w@OSU18-15
19	16	Oregon	5-1	L@Boise19-8;wUtah31-24
7	17	Virginia Tech	5-2	L@GT28-32,=Ala34-24;wMia31-7,wNeb16-15
10	18	South Florida	5-1	L Cincy34-17
24	19	Utah	5-1	L@Oregon31-24
--	20	Pittsburgh	6-1	L@NCst38-31;wRutgers24-17
22	21	C Michigan	6-1	L@Arizona19-6
--	22	Texas Tech	5-2	L@Tex34-24,@Hou29-28;w@Neb31-10
--	23	West Virginia	5-1	L@Auburn41-30
15	24	Kansas	5-1	L@Colo34-30
--	25	Idaho	6-1	L@Wash42-23
		out:
17	--	S. Carolina	5-2	L@Georgia 41-37,@Ala20-6
18	--	Ohio State	5-2	L@Purdue26-18,USC18-15
21	--	Nebraska	4-2	L TTech31-10,@VT16-15
25	--	Rutgers	4-2	L Cincy47-15,Pitt24-17

Enigmatic Houston moves up a spot to #11. Since their loss to UTEP they've picked up where they left off and have two big wins, the only team in the rankings to beat two other current top 25 members. Georgia Tech's defeat of Virginia Tech propels them up to #12, and Oklahoma State and BYU hold steady for the umpteenth week.The former is stuck behind Houston, while the latter's once-strong résumé is now meager.

USC beat Notre Dame yet again, another game that tells me they're overrated on any poll that puts them in the top five. They have a loss to Washington and their win over Ohio State was sullied this week. Until they face Oregon—#16 this week—I see no reason to put them in the top ten.

Virginia Tech is the only 2-loss team that didn't fall out this week; their losses are to top teams and they have a key win over Miami. They also beat Nebraska, making their résumé very similar to the other 2-loss team in the rankings, Texas Tech. The #22 Red Raiders, too, lost to a top-three team and an almost-top ten team, while beating the Cornhuskers.

South Florida fell to #18 after losing to Cincinnati, while Kansas just held on at #24 after losing to Colorado, a game they nearly won at the last second. Neither team has a big win, but only one loss. In fact, all of the 1-loss teams are now represented in the rankings: Utah slides up to #19; Pittsburgh enters at #20 after beating Rutgers; Central Michigan finally moves up a spot at 6-1 (and is finally getting some votes in the national polls); West Virginia enters at #23 (ahead of Kansas because the Mountaineers beat Colorado previously); and finally at #25, Idaho. Yes, Idaho!

The Vandals were one of the worst teams in the country last year, and figured to be the same if not worse this year. I had them as a possible 0-12 this year. Instead Idaho has been winning game after game, losing only to Washington—which puts them in company with USC.

Idaho isn't really one of the best 25 teams; they rank in the middle of the pack (currently #69) in the Strength power rating week to week, and their six wins have come over a cupcake schedule for sure: 3-4 New Mexico State, 2-4 San Diego State, 3-3 Northern Illinois, 3-4 Colorado State, 1-5 San Jose State, and 2-4 Hawaii. Not a winning team in the bunch, nor a BCS-conference win. Most of those wins have been close, too. But they're having one of the great turnarounds in college football history, are already bowl-eligible, and for a team I placed at #120 pre-season they deserve the recognition. They don't face a winning team until Boise State, and if they win that they'd better be in all the polls! Realistically they'll have a tough time beating Nevada and Louisiana Tech, and will almost certainly lose to Fresno State in addition to Boise. But as long as they keep winning they're on my list...just don't look for them to make any huge leaps.

Most of the teams with two losses fell out this week; South Carolina has no big wins and Ohio State lost to Purdue. And while Nebraska and Rutgers have only lost to good teams, they also have no offsetting strong wins to argue for continued inclusion in the rankings, for now.

SportsRatings subjective Top 25 week 6 - little change

This weekend was relatively uneventful in terms of top-25-changing events. #1 Florida and #3 Alabama both won big games, and I saw no reason to reshuffle anything relative to #2 Texas. The latter hasn't been put to the test yet but they will over their next three games. If they fail, they'll fall.

This year's top three matters less than any in recent memory, since two of them are on a collision course. Texas hardly need worry about its fall from #2 to #3 in the AP poll.

Iowa beat Michigan 30-28 to remain #4, joining Alabama as the only 6-0 teams in the country. Boise State idled at #5; they face Tulsa next week which should give a good comparison between they and Oklahoma, who beat the Golden Hurricane 45-0.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week six (thru 10/10/2009)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Florida	5-0	w@LSU13-3
2	2	Texas	5-0
3	3	Alabama	6-0	w=VTech34-24,w@Miss22-3
4	4	Iowa	6-0	w@PennSt 21-10,Arizona 27-17
5	5	Boise St	5-0	wOregon19-8
6	6	TCU	5-0
7	7	Virginia Tech	5-1	L=Ala34-24;wMia31-7,Neb16-15
8	8	Miami	4-1	L@VT31-7;wGT33-16
9	9	Penn State	5-1	L Iowa 21-10
11	10	South Florida	5-0
10	11	LSU	5-1	L FLA13-3
12	12	Houston	4-1	L@UTEP58-41;w@OKst45-35
13	13	Oklahoma St	4-1	L Houston 45-35
14	14	BYU	4-1	L FSU 54-28
16	15	Kansas	5-0
18	16	USC	4-1	L@Wash16-13;w@OSU 18-15
17	17	S. Carolina	5-1	L@Georgia41-37;wMiss16-10
20	18	Ohio State	5-1	L USC18-15
21	19	Oregon	5-1	L@Boise19-8;wUtah31-24
24	20	Cincinnati	5-0	w@Rutgers47-15
--	21	Nebraska	4-1	L@VT16-15;w@Mizz27-12
22	22	C Michigan	5-1	L@Arizona19-6
23	23	Georgia Tech	5-1	L@Miami 33-16
--	24	Utah	4-1	L@Oregon31-24
--	25	Rutgers	4-1	L Cincy47-15
		out:
19	--	Mississippi	3-2	L@SCar16-10,Alabama22-3
15	--	Arizona	3-2	L@Wsh36-33,@IA27-17;wCM19-6
25t	--	Missouri	4-1	L Neb27-12
25t	--	Auburn	5-1	L@Ark44-23

TCU, Virginia Tech, Miami, and Penn State remained in order from #6 to #9 while USF moved up a notch, replacing LSU who fell only one spot to #11 after losing to Florida 10-3.

Houston rebounded with their third win over a BCS conference foe, holding steady at #12 which is where they'll remain for a while if they keep winning. Oklahoma State and BYU also hold steady at #13 and #14, with BYU's résumé consisting only of a loss to a 2-4 team. They'll be hoping for an Oklahoma victory this week.

Kansas barely dodged the upset bug and moves up a notch to #15 at 5-0. USC jumps South Carolina to land at #15; the Trojans' résumé is now better than the Gamecocks' after Ole Miss fell from the ranks. USC victim Ohio State handed Wisconsin their first defeat and they also jump 2 slots.

Oregon and Cincinnati both gained an impressive win, though not from this weekend, as Utah and Rutgers enter the rankings; hence the Ducks and Bearkats jump to #19 and #20. Nebraska earns their way in at #21 by beating previously-undefeated Missouri, one of four teams to fall out this week. Mississippi's loss to Alabama was their second, with no big wins to back it up. Arizona lost a crazy game to unranked Washington. And Auburn's first loss was to 3-3 Tennessee.

Central Michigan and Georgia Tech remained steady at #22 and #23.

This is the first weekend where every undefeated team is in the top 25, and currently all but a handful of 1-loss team are ranked (eight to be exact). Among them, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Missouri, Tulsa, and Notre Dame all play top 25 opponents this coming weekend: #25 Rutgers, #4 Iowa, #13 Oklahoma State, #5 Boise State, and #16 USC. Along with the USF-Cincinnati game, Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Tech, and Alabama-South Carolina, there could be a big shakeup next week.

SportsRatings subjective Top 25 week 5: Houston's loss mucks things up

Another week, another screwy top 25. Nothing much happened at the top, as the #1 and #2 teams were safe from losing by being idle. #3 Alabama is gaining in people's minds as the real #1 and while they have the best résumé so far, it ain't over until they play Florida. Unless Tebow is out the rest of the year, I'll still take the Gators. Meanwhile Texas' offense is the best in the country, even with a sub-par Colt McCoy thus far.

Iowa played their worst opponent of the year and, naturally, played down to them at home and nearly gave the game away. Boise State faced a division I-AA team and had a lackluster performance. But why knock these teams, who have some of the best quality wins of any team? TCU rounds out the "teams nobody thought would be rated this high, this early" list at #6. Then Virginia Tech and the Miami team they beat lead Penn State as the best 1-loss teams while LSU rounds out the top 10.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week five (thru 10/3/2009)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Florida	4-0
2	2	Texas	4-0
3	3	Alabama	5-0	w=VTech34-24
4	4	Iowa	5-0	w@PennSt21-10,Arizona27-17
5	5	Boise St	5-0	wOregon19-8
7	6	TCU	4-0
8	7	Virginia Tech	4-1	L=Alabama34-24;w Miami31-7
12	8	Miami	3-1	L@VT31-7;wGT33-16,OK21-20
9	9	Penn State	4-1	L Iowa21-10
15	10	LSU	5-0	w@Georgia20-13
11	11	South Florida	5-0
6	12	Houston	3-1	L@UTEP58-41;w@OKst45-35
10	13	Oklahoma St	3-1	L Houston 45-35;w GA 24-10
13	14	BYU	3-1	L FSU 54-28;w@OK 14-13
17	15	Arizona	3-1	L@Iowa 27-17;w CMich19-6
18	16	Kansas	4-0
20	17	South Carolina	4-1	L@GA 41-37;w Miss 16-10
23	18	Southern Cal	4-1	L@Wash16-13;w@OSU18-15
21	19	Mississippi	3-1	L@SCaro 16-10
24	20	Ohio State	4-1	L USC18-15
25t	21	Oregon	4-1	L@Boise19-8
22	22	C Michigan	4-1	L@Arizona19-6
25t	23	Georgia Tech	4-1	L@Miami 33-16
--	24	Cincinnati	5-0
--	25t	Auburn	5-0
--	25t	Missouri	4-0
		out:
16	--	Michigan	4-1	L@MichSt26-20
14	--	Oklahoma	2-2	L BYU 14-13,@Miami21-20
19	--	Georgia	3-2	L@OKst24-10,LSU20-13;   wSC41-37

USF remains #11. The Bulls play Cincinnati next week so they'll either jump a whole lot in the other polls, or Cincinnati will jump a lot here.

Houston complicated matters by losing to UTEP. Their defense was finally exposed—it's amazing Oklahoma State or Texas Tech didn't score 50 on them—and they tumbled from the national polls. Here I keep them ahead of the Cowboys, but have to push both of them down a few extra notches because, wow, the Cougar defense looked horrendous. It doesn't help that Georgia lost, depriving OK State of some bragging rights. BYU slides one, too, as Oklahoma no longer makes the list.

Arizona and Kansas were both off last week and float up a few spots, just because.

#17 South Carolina beat #19 Mississippi, while #18 USC beat #20 Ohio State.  The Trojans and Buckeyes moved up more, though, since they both played very well last week. The résumés of the pair of teams are nearly identical. Oregon, Central Michigan, and Georgia Tech all have an excusable loss on their slate, and the Ducks are playing the best so they move ahead a bit.

Three undefeated teams join the top 25 for the first time this year. Cincinnati—a top ten team in the other polls—hasn't really played anyone but they've been impressive; beat USF next week and I'll have them near the top ten. Auburn is another 5-0 team with no big wins but they'll have many chances later to prove their worth. They're tied at #25 with Missouri, who faces Nebraska next week for the Cornhuskers' chance to get in the rankings. That leaves Wisconsin as the only unranked undefeated team; the Badgers play Ohio State next week and will replace them if they win.

Oklahoma falls out of the top 25 after starting at #3. They've lost to two top 25 teams, each by a point, and both times with Sam Bradford gone for most/all of the game. If he returns healthy I expect them to be back. Michigan lost to Michigan State; every other top 25 team with a loss to a non-top 25 team has an offsetting impressive win to keep them in, so the Wolverines are out for now. Beat Iowa next week and they'll be right back in. Georgia has their 2nd loss, both to good teams. With a win over South Carolina under their belts they won't stay out long if they take care of business, too.

SportsRatings Subjective Top 25 - week 4: Top Three, Then What?

The mantra from the AP pollsters this week was clear: who in the hell are we going to put #4? We had the same problem here at SportsRatings.

#1 Florida, #2 Texas, and #3 Alabama are a clear consensus. After that, it's hard to find a team that deserves to be in the top ten; the teams either have a loss or struggled so much on Saturday that they nearly have one. Or, they were Boise State, whom the rules state cannot be ranked very high, it seems. The AP found their own solution; here is ours. SportsRatings had some jockeying to do, too, on such an odd week.

Iowa took the #4 spot after beating Penn State soundly in Happy Valley. The Hawkeyes launched back into to AP poll for this win, but since they were #8 here last week they zoom up four spots. They're the only team that has two top 25 wins (since Arizona is in our rankings). Boise State's win over Oregon is back to looking impressive again all of a sudden and they round out the top five.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week four (thru 9/26/2009)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Florida	4-0
2	2	Texas	4-0	w TTech34-24
3	3	Alabama	4-0	w=VTech34-24
8	4	Iowa	4-0	w@PennSt 21-10,Arizona 27-17
7	5	Boise St	4-0	wOregon19-8
12	6	Houston	3-0	w@OKstate 45-35,TTech29-28
11	7	TCU	3-0
--	8	Virginia Tech	3-1	L=Alabama34-24;wMiami31-7
6	9	Penn State	3-1	L Iowa 21-10
17	10	Oklahoma St	3-1	L Houston 45-35;wGA 24-10
--	11	South Florida	4-0	w@FSU 17-7
9	12	Miami	2-1	L@VT31-7;wGT33-16,@FSU 38-34
15	13	BYU	3-1	L FSU 54-28;w@OK 14-13
16	14	Oklahoma	2-1	L BYU 14-13
18	15	LSU	4-0	w@Wash31-23
19	16	Michigan	4-0
20	17	Arizona	3-1	L@Iowa 27-17;wCMich19-6
21	18	Kansas	4-0
--	19	Georgia	3-1	L@OKst 24-10;wSCaro41-37
--	20	S. Carolina	3-1	L@Georgia 41-37;wMiss 16-10
4	21	Mississippi	2-1	L@SCaro 16-10
22	22	C Michigan	3-1	L@Arizona19-6
24	23	Southern Cal	3-1	L@Wash 16-13;w@OSU18-15
25	24	Ohio State	3-1	L USC18-15
--	25t	Oregon	3-1	L@Boise19-8;wCal42-3
--	25t	Georgia Tech	3-1	L@Miami 33-16;wUNC 24-7
		out:
5	--	California	3-1	L@Oregon42-3
10	--	N. Carolina	3-1	L@GTech 24-7
14	--	Florida St	2-2	L Mia38-34,USF17-7;w@BYU54-28
13	--	Texas Tech	2-2	L@Tex34-24,@Hou29-28
23	--	Washington	2-2	L@Stan34-14,LSU31-23;wUSC16-13

Houston knocked Texas Tech out of the rankings, edging them by a point, but a win's a win and the Cougars are 4-0. TCU edged Clemson, clearing one of its toughest hurdles toward a BCS-buster season, giving non-BCS teams three of the top seven.

Virginia Tech went from playing like a borderline top 25 team to looking like a top ten team in beating Miami, and they rocket back into the top 25 all the way at #8. Yes, this is an odd week.

Penn State exploits the lack of quality teams at the top and only slides to #9. though they could reasonably be dropped to #20. We're giving them the benefit of the doubt for now. Oklahoma State benefits from Georgia's re-entry and jumps to #10.

South Florida was 3-0 and unranked last week and their season looked over after losing Matt Groethe. But they handled Florida State more easily than Miami did, so we put them at #11; the Hurricanes still have a good résumé so far at #12 and stay ahead of both BYU and #14 Oklahoma, at least until next week when they face the Sooners.

LSU and Michigan both missed a great opportunity to make a big move in the rankings by nearly losing. One play here or there and both would be 3-1 instead of 4-0. With no big wins on their slate they move up only moderately, followed by Arizona and Kansas.

South Carolina's win over Mississippi caused a big problem. Both having one loss, it required me to put the Gamecocks ahead of the Rebels, necessitating a big drop from #4. But Georgia also has but one loss and a win over South Carolina. So they had to be in, also. Meanwhile Oregon (HUGE winner over Cal) and Georgia Tech (beat #10 UNC, lost only to Miami) demanded recognition as well. Dumping the 2-2 teams (FSU, Texas Tech, and Washington) was an easy decision, but which of the upset victims should be kept, and which of the winners should get it?

Ultimately I decided that keeping Mississippi, a 16-10 loser, made more sense than holding on to Cal, a 42-3 loser. I couldn't keep North Carolina without having Georgia Tech ahead of them, and Oregon was even more deserving than the Yellow Jackets, so UNC had to drop out. Using a bit of a cheat and having a tie at #25, I allowed Oregon and Georgia Tech to share the spot. Washington's victor, Stanford, lost themselves to 2-2 Wake Forest and was more easily ignored. That leaves USC as one of only two teams with a loss to a non-top 25 teams. They and Ohio State moved up a notch while Central Michigan, who has never been in the AP top 25, remains at #22 here.

SportsRatings Subjective Top 25 - week three: USC falls

It was an unimpressive weekend for last week's top three teams, to say the least!

#1 Florida and #2 Texas both won, but weren't that impressive. The Gators dispatched Tennessee but not the way a dominant, all-time-best college football team would have. It was somewhat reminiscent of their home win over Miami from last year. Texas beat Texas Tech but didn't get the type of revenge they wanted; instead the 34-24 win either made the Longhorns look less impressive, or the Red Raiders more legit. But both teams won, which is more than we can say for ex-#3 Southern Cal. More on that in a bit. First, the rest of the top ten.

Alabama, Mississippi, and California all move up a spot after winning as expected. Penn State and Boise State take advantage of three losses within the top ten to move up three spots each, though neither really looked like a top ten team in their last game.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week three 2009 (thru 9/19/2009)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Florida	3-0
2	2	Texas	3-0	w TxTech 34-24
4	3	Alabama	3-0
5	4	Mississippi	2-0
6	5	California	3-0
9	6	Penn State	3-0
10	7	Boise St	3-0
12	8	Iowa	3-0	w Arizona 27-17
18	9	Miami	2-0	w@FSU 38-34;w GT 33-17
13	10	North Carolina	3-0
14	11	TCU	2-0
15	12	Houston	2-0	w@OKstate 45-35
7	13	Texas Tech	2-1	L@Texas 34-24
25	14	Florida St	2-1	L Miami 38-34;w@BYU 54-28
11	15	BYU	2-1	L FSU 54-28;w@OK 14-13
16	16	Oklahoma	2-1	L BYU 14-13
17	17	Oklahoma St	2-1	L Houston 45-35
21	18	LSU	3-0	w@Wash 31-23
20	19	Michigan	3-0
8	20	Arizona	2-1	L@Iowa 27-17;w CMich19-6
22	21	Kansas	3-0
23	22	C Michigan	2-1	L@Arizona19-6
--	23	Washington	2-1	L LSU 31-23;w USC 16-13
3	24	Southern Cal	2-1	L@Wash16-13;w@OSU18-15
24	25	Ohio State	2-1	L USC18-15
		Out:
19	--	Georgia Tech	2-1	L@Miami 33-17

Iowa was one of the big winners this week, beating former #8 Arizona. The Hawkeyes fell out of the AP top 25 early and Arizona hasn't been in it, but both teams began near the SportsRatings top ten. Miami is the biggest mover, jumping from #18 to #9 after beating #19 Georgia Tech and getting a big boost from FSU's win over BYU.

That FSU win—which jumps the Seminoles to #14 from #25— creates a clear pecking order among several major teams: Miami, #14 Florida State, #15 BYU, and #16 Oklahoma. The Sooners play Miami in a few weeks which will either reinforce that order or create a circle of logic that I'll just base on point spreads; right now only FSU's win is significant.

North Carolina, TCU, and Houston all move up due to other teams' losses, while Houston's victim Oklahoma State is stalled at #17. Texas Tech falls from #7 to #13; they looked like a top 25 team against the Longhorns on the road, and face Houston next weekend.

Michigan, Kansas, and Central Michigan inch up, while Arizona drops to #20. The Wildcats have a win over the Chippawas that keep them in the rankings, but they have yet to prove themselves worthy of my high pre-season ranking.

LSU moves up three spots to #18; suddenly their narrow win over Washington doesn't look quite as lame! USC falls all the way to #24, just above Ohio State. The Washington Huskies move into the rankings at #23. After all, both they and USC are 2-1, and the Huskies beat the Trojans, so why should the Trojans be ranked ahead of them? The AP poll can't do this, of course, as they have Ohio State near the top ten, meaning USC will stay in their top 10 despite this humbling loss. But I simply drop the Buckeyes one spot and preserve the proper order. There are still no teams in the top 25 with a loss outside the rankings, which is good.

Georgia Tech falls out after losing to Miami; but for the USC upset they would have remained in at #25, and most likely they will end up a top 25 team rather than Washington. But ranking for the here-and-now, the Huskies deserve the recognition, and if you didn't know they'd gone 0-12 last year, doesn't a win over USC and a close loss to LSU look pretty good?

SportsRatings Subjective Top 25 - week two

The SportsRatings subjective Top 25 for week two.

So far #1 Florida and #2 Texas haven't done anything to hurt themselves, and USC's win over Ohio State keeps them lodged at #3. Alabama took its time dispatching FIU and Mississippi didn't play, while Cal has been dominant in its two games.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week two 2009 (thru 9/13/2009)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Florida	2-0
2	2	Texas	2-0
3	3	Southern Cal	2-0	w@OhioSt18-15
4	4	Alabama	2-0
5	5	Mississippi	1-0
6	6	California	2-0
8	7	Texas Tech	2-0
10	8	Arizona	2-0	w CMich 19-6
9	9	Penn State	2-0
11	10	Boise St	2-0
16	11	BYU	2-0	w@Oklahoma 14-13
12	12	Iowa	2-0
13	13	North Carolina	2-0
14	14	TCU	1-0
--	15	Houston	2-0	w@OKstate 45-35
18	16	Oklahoma	1-1	L BYU 14-13
7	17	Oklahoma St	1-1	L Houston 45-35
20	18	Miami	1-0	w@FSU 38-34
21	19	Georgia Tech	2-0
--	20	Michigan	2-0	w@ND38-34
23	21	LSU	2-0
24	22	Kansas	2-0
--	23	C Michigan	1-1	L@AZ 19-6;w@MSU 29-27
22	24	Ohio State	1-1	L USC18-15
25	25	Florida St	1-1	L Miami 38-34
		Out:
17	--	Notre Dame	1-1	L@Michigan 38-34
19	--	Michigan St	1-1	L CMich 29-27
15	--	Stanford	1-1	L@Wake 24-17

Oklahoma State's loss allows some re-shuffling in the top 10. Texas Tech moves up a notch to #7; the Red Raiders aren't in the AP top 25 and face Texas in Austin this week, so either they make a big AP debut or won't be in the poll for some time. At #8 I have Arizona jump Penn State; the Lions beat Syracuse just 28-7 and the Wildcats' win over Central Michigan gained value over the weekend. They play at #12 Iowa this weekend; the winner gets a top ten slot (in our rankings) and moves closer to a spot in the AP top 25.

Boise State moves into the top ten and BYU follows them at #11; both have played two strong games and have leapt TCU as the top BCS-busters. But watch out for #15 Houston,  coming off a win over Oklahoma State. Unlike the AP, I actually rank the Cougars higher than the Cowboys after beating them on the road. UNC holds at #13 after their 2nd unimpressive win.

Oklahoma and Oklahoma State at #16 and #17 are the first teams with losses, both to top 25 foes. At this point no teams in the top 25 have lost outside the rankings. With #18 Miami playing #19 Georgia Tech and #25 Florida State playing #11 BYU there could be a mess in this area next week: if FSU and Georgia Tech win, the pecking order will be Tech, Miami, FSU, BYU, Oklahoma, and some illogical moves will need to be made to preserve that.

Michigan jumps into the fray at #20 ahead of LSU and Kansas, who each move up two spots. Central Michigan joins them at #23 after beating Michigan State. Two other 1-1 teams round out the top 25: Ohio State falls two spots for a decent performance against USC, and Florida State remains stuck at #25 after a lackluster game against Jacksonville State.

Notre Dame falls out after losing to Michigan, and they're going to have a hard time getting back in. Beating Michigan State won't do it, as the Spartans fell out, too. And since Stanford (who choked away a win against Wake Forest) has dropped out, the only current top 25 team remaining on the Irish's schedule is USC.

SportsRatings Subjective Top 25 - week one

I've decided to keep doing the subjective (AP style) top 25, using the SportsRatings pre-season top 25 as a starting point. Without further ado here is week one:

SportsRatings Top 25 - week one 2009 (9/8/2009)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Florida	1-0
2	2	Texas	1-0
4	3	Southern Cal	1-0
6	4	Alabama	1-0	w=VTech 34-24
5	5	Mississippi	1-0
7	6	California	1-0
11	7	Oklahoma St	1-0
8	8	Texas Tech	1-0
9	9	Penn State	1-0
10	10	Arizona	1-0
16	11	Boise St	1-0	w Oregon 19-8
12	12	Iowa	1-0
13	13	North Carolina	1-0
14	14	TCU	0-0
15	15	Stanford	1-0
--	16	BYU	1-0	w@Oklahoma 14-13
17	17	Notre Dame	1-0
3	18	Oklahoma	0-1	L BYU 14-13
20	19	Michigan St	1-0
--	20	Miami	1-0	w@FSU 38-34
21	21	Georgia Tech	1-0
22	22	Ohio State	1-0
23	23	LSU	1-0
24	24	Kansas	1-0
18	25	Florida St	0-1	L Miami 38-34
		out:
19	--	Oregon	0-1	L@Boise St. 19-8
25	--	Virginia Tech	0-1	L=Alabama 34-24

The top few are pretty obvious and match the AP poll; I moved Alabama ahead of Mississippi for beating Virginia Tech; the Tide and Rebels were essentially tied for #5 in my pre-season rankings.

Cal moves up a spot to #6 and Oklahoma State jumps to #7 after beating Georgia; the Bulldogs were just outside the top 25 to begin the year.

Boise State beat Oregon, which should be their only challenge this year; I'd say #11 is about right for them at this point. They'll beat up on a lot of bad teams from here on out and will move up very slowly because of weak schedule strength. But right now their résumé is about as good as anyone's.

The teams in the 8-15 range could be overrated but I'll stick with them for now. Texas Tech, Arizona, and Stanford are way higher than anyone else had them pre-season, and Iowa laid an egg against UNI. Time will tell.

Instead of putting BYU in the top ten like the AP does, I dropped Oklahoma more and put the Cougars at a reasonable #16. Neither team looked great and the Sooners will be without Bradford for some time and just lost Jermaine Gresham. More to the point, their offense has clearly lost a lot of punch with the new offensive line.

Notre Dame remains #17; they beat Nevada about right for a #17 team. Miami jumps in at #20 as the next several teams in line (Georgia Tech, Ohio State, LSU) didn't look good at all and don't move up. FSU falls to #25 but stays in; if the game-ending pass were thrown a foot higher they'd still be #18, so I can't justify dumping them.

Oregon does get dumped, as they looked horrific in the first half and no longer have LaGarrette Blount to boot. Virginia Tech slips off the end of the poll as well (they didn't start in my top ten, needless to say).

SportsRatings Final 2008 College Football Top 25: Utah is #1

The Utah Utes are the #1 team for 2008 in the final SportsRatings College Football Top 25.

Utah finished undefeated and beat four other teams in the top 25, two in the top ten. That's good enough to consider them, as the only undefeated team, tops in the land. They beat #6 Alabama just as convincingly or moreso as #2 Florida did, and beat Oregon State, the team that beat #4 USC.

Texas was #1 last week, and though it may be unfair and I usually don't drop a team that doesn't lose, the final poll has to reflect what I believe. The Lonhorns' main argument for being #1 is that they'd only lost to a 1-loss team and had beaten the team with the best résumé. Now that Texas Tech and Oklahoma lost again, that argument doesn't put Texas ahead of Utah. It also puts the Longhorns in a tie at #2 with Florida; the teams now have similar résumés: a ten-point win over Oklahoma and one loss to a top 25 team. Texas has a few more top 25 wins, but Florida has two ten ten win; Texas lost to a 2-loss team rather than a 4-loss team, but Mississippi beat Texas Tech head-to-head. It's a wash.

USC moves up to fourth after their strong win over Penn State and the Pac-10's 5-0 bowl performance, and they're really quite close to Florida and Texas. #5 Oklahoma isn't far behind either, with losses to co-number twos Texas and Florida and a long list of top 25 wins. Alabama has losses only to #1 Utah and co-#2 Florida, but lags in terms of big victories. Still, they don't fall from the previous rankings.

TCU jumps up four spots to #7 after beating Boise State. The Horned Frogs have two losses, both to top-5 teams. #8 Penn State and #9 Boise State hold their spots despite losing as Texas Tech tumbles from #3 to #10.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Final rankings for 2008 season (1-08-2009)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Significant wins/losses
4	1.	Utah	13-0	wins: =Alabama31-17,TCU13-10,OreSt31-28,BYU48-24 losses: none
1	2t	Texas	12-1	wins: =OK45-35,OhioSt24-21,OkSt28-24,Mizz56-31,Rice52-10 Losses: @Texas Tech 39-33
5	2t	Florida	13-1	wins: =Oklahoma24-14,Alabama31-20,Georgia49-10 Losses: Mississippi31-30
7	4.	Southern Cal	12-1	wins: PennState38-24,Oregon44-10,OhioState35-3,@Cal17-3 Losses: @Oregon State 27-21
2	5.	Oklahoma	12-2	wins: TTech65-21,TCU35-10,Cin52-26,@OkSt61-41,=Mizz62-21 Losses: =Florida24-14, =Texas 45-35
6	6.	Alabama	12-2	wins: @Georgia41-30,Miss24-20 Losses: =FLA31-20,=Utah31-17
11	7.	TCU	11-2	wins: BYU32-7,=BoiseSt17-16 Losses: @OK35-10,@Utah13-10
8	8.	Penn State	11-2	wins: @OSU13-6,MichSt48-19,OreSt45-14 Losses: @Iowa24-23,@USC38-24
9	9.	Boise State	12-1	wins: @Oregon37-32 Losses: =TCU17-16
3	10.	Texas Tech	11-2	wins: Texas39-33,OklaSt56-20 Losses: =Miss47-34,@OK65-21
18	11.	Oregon	10-3	wins: @OreSt62-21,=OkSt42-31 Losses: @Cal26-16,BoiseSt37-32,@USC44-10
10	12.	Ohio State	10-3	wins: MichSt45-7,@Nwest45-10 Losses: @USC35-3,PennSt13-6,=Texas24-21
24	13.	Mississippi	9-4	wins: @Fla31-30,=Ttech47-34 Losses: @Wake30-28,Vand23-17,SCaro31-24,@Ala24-20
17	14.	Georgia	10-3	wins: =MSU26-12 Losses: GT45-42,=FLA49-10,Ala41-30
12	15.	Oklahoma State	9-4	wins: Mizz28-23 Losses: =Oregon42-31,@TTech56-20,@Tex28-24,OK61-41
23	16.	Oregon State	9-4	wins: USC27-21,=Pitt3-0,Cal34-21 Losses: @Stan36-28,@PennSt45-14,@Utah31-28,Ore65-38
13	17.	Cincinnati	11-3	wins: Pitt28-21 Losses: @UConn40-16,=VT20-7,@OK52-26
--	18.	California	9-4	wins: MichSt38-31,Ore26-16 Losses: @Ariz42-27,@Mary35-27,@USC17-3,@OreSt34-21
19	19.	Michigan State	9-4	wins: @Nwest37-20,Iowa16-13 Losses: @Cal38-31,OSU45-7,@PennSt48-19,GA24-12
--	20.	Missouri	10-4	wins: =Nwest30-23ot Losses: =KU40-37,OKst28-23,@Tex56-31,=Oklahoma62-21
21	21.	Northwestern	9-4	wins: @Iowa22-17 Losses: @Ind21-19,MichSt37-20,OSU45-10,=Mizz30-23ot
20	22.	Pittsburgh	9-4	wins: Iowa21-20 Losses: BowlGr27-17,L Rutgers54-34,@Cincy28-21,=OreSt3-0
25	23.	Iowa	9-4	wins: PennSt24-23 Losses: @Ill27-24,@Pitt21-20,Nwest22-17,@MichSt16-13
--	24.	Tulsa	11-3	wins: =BallSt45-13,Rice 63-28 Losses: @Ark30-23,@Houston70-30,ECar27-24
16	25t	Brigham Young	10-3	Losses: =Arizona31-21,@TCU32-7,@Utah48-24
14	25t	Ball State	12-2	Losses: =Tulsa45-13=Buffalo42-24
--	25t	Rice	10-3	Losses: @Vandy38-21,@Tulsa63-28,@Texas52-10

 

The highest-ranked 3-loss team is Oregon at #11, just ahead of Ohio State at #12. The Ducks and Buckeyes both lost big on the road to USC and lost to two other top 25 teams. Ohio State's losses were all to top-10 teams, but the Ducks have stronger wins to offset it, though it's very close. Right behind them is the top-ranked 4-loss team, Mississippi. The Rebels have a bunch of not-so-great losses, but are the only team beside Utah, Florida, and Oklahoma to have two wins over top ten teams. They fly up from #24 to #13.

10-3 Georgia follows at #14, up from #17. The Bulldogs have losses to Florida and Alabama, but only one strong win, in their bowl game against Michigan State. Oklahoma State dips just a few spots to #15 after their loss to Oregon; all four of their losses are to teams ranked #11 or above. Oregon State has three wins over top 25 competition, including a win over USC, but their loss to Stanford soils their résumé just a bit. Big East champ Cincinnati, who had 11 wins in 2008, follows at #17.

California jumps back in at #18, ahead of #19 Michigan State, whom they beat in the first game of the season. All of the Spartans' losses are to top 20 teams, but their wins are fairly weak, while Cal beat MSU head-to-head and beat Oregon as well.

The next four teams all have four losses and are ranked relative to each other and Michigan State. The Spartans beat #21 Northwestern and did so more convincingly than #20 Missouri, who needed overtime, did. Likewise Northwestern beat #23 Iowa on the road while #22 Pittsburgh won by a point at home. The Hawkeyes at #23 are the lynchpin that prevents several teams from falling out of the top 25; they won their bowl game 31-10 and have a win over Penn State.

Tulsa gets back in the rankings at #24 with a strong win over Ball State in the GMAC bowl, giving them two wins over teams with 3-losses or fewer. The final three teams tied at #25 all have 3 or fewer losses but no wins over top 25 teams: BYU (10-3) and the two teams Tulsa beat, Ball State (12-2) and Rice (10-3).

And for "others receiving votes" I designate the entire Atlantic Coast Conference, in no particular order.

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - week 15 end of regular season

Who will be #1 when the smoke clears after all the bowl games? Based on my rankings, using guidelines of head-to-head competition and performance in big games, it could be any of four or five teams. My other guideline—that teams don't fall unless they lose—will almost certainly be broken since there are so many teams close to one another and a proper ranking will probably jumble things around a bit.

#1 Texas gets the crown if they beat Ohio State sufficiently. I don't know what 'sufficiently' means but it probably means they have to beat the Buckeyes worse than Penn State did, but not necessarily as bad as USC did. There are, however, complicating factors; see Florida's entry.

#2 Oklahoma is a certain #1 if they beat Florida and Texas loses to Ohio State. They've got such a slew of big wins that if considering résumé alone they are the top team. But the head-to-head loss to Texas is paramount by the guidelines I use here.

#3 Texas Tech is probably out of luck. If Oklahoma wins the Sooners are in front of them; if Florida can beat Oklahoma, the team that beat the Red Raiders by 44, they deserve to be ahead. So even if Oklahoma loses, which gives Tech an argument to finish ahead of Texas, Tech won't be #1. Normally I don't give much weight to margin of victory, but in big games, and when it can't be ignored, I do, and 44 points can't be ignored. What's really interesting is that Tech is playing the team that beat Florida, so maybe I'll compare all the point spreads. If they can beat Ole Miss by 44 and Florida beats Oklahoma only by a point, does that make things even? :)

#4 Utah has a slim chance: beat the tar out of Alabama to convince me they deserve to stay ahead of a Florida team that beats Oklahoma, and probably Texas has to lose, too. I would jump them over Texas Tech, since Utah will have a heftier résumé in addition to being undefeated. It's going to take some judgement to put Utah in a final slot.

#5 Florida is #1 or #2 in most polls, and is almost certainly one of the two best teams in the country right now, so that's fair enough. But my ranking is based not on who I think a team would beat but rather on who a team has beaten. And in that respect, Florida hasn't done much more than anyone else. Their wins over non-ranked teams have been devastation, but they've beaten just two top 25 teams, and lost to another. Which makes them approximately equivalent to most of the teams in the top ten. To claim the top spot, they need to beat Oklahoma more convincingly than Texas did, and/or have Texas lose. An Alabama win over Utah would help, and a Mississippi upset of Texas Tech would be icing on the cake.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 15 (12-07-2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Significant wins/losses
2	1.	Texas	11-1	L@TTech39-33;w=OK45-35,OkSt28-24,Mizz56-31
3	2.	Oklahoma	12-1	L=Tx45-35;wTech65-21,TCU35-10,Cin52-26,@OkSt61-41,=Miz62-21
4	3.	Texas Tech	11-1	L@OK65-21;wTexas39-33,OklaSt56-20
5	4.	Utah	12-0	wTCU13-10,BYU48-24,OreSt31-28
6	5.	Florida	12-1	L Miss31-30;w=Georgia49-10,=Alabama31-20
1	6.	Alabama	12-1	L=FLA31-20;w@Georgia41-30,Miss24-20
7	7.	Southern Cal	11-1	L@OreSt27-21;wOhioState35-3,Oregon44-10
8	8.	Penn State	11-1	L@Iowa24-23;w@OSU13-6,MichSt48-19,OreSt45-14
9	9.	Boise State	12-0	w@Oregon37-32
11	10.	Ohio State	10-2	L@USC35-3,PennSt13-6;wMichSt45-7,@Nwest45-10
12	11.	TCU	10-2	L@OK35-10,@Utah13-10;wBYU32-7
13	12.	Oklahoma St.	9-3	L@TTech56-20,@Tex28-24,OK61-41;w@Mizz28-23
14	13.	Cincinnati	11-2	L@UConn40-16,@OK52-26;wPitt28-21
10	14.	Ball State	12-1	L=Buffalo42-24;wWMich45-22
15	15.	Georgia Tech	9-3	L@VA24-17,VT20-17,@UNC28-7;w@GA45-42,w@BC19-16
16	16.	BYU	10-2	L@TCU32-7,@Utah48-24
17	17.	Georgia	9-3	L GT45-42,=FLA49-10,Ala41-30
18	18.	Oregon	9-3	L@Cal26-16,BoiseSt37-32,@USC44-10;w@OreSt62-21
21	19.	Michigan St.	9-3	L@Cal38-31,OSU45-7,@PSU48-19;w@Nwest37-20,Iowa16-13
23	20.	Pittsburgh	9-3	L BowlGr27-17,L Rutgers54-34,@Cincy28-21;wIowa21-20
25	21.	Northwestern	9-3	L@Ind21-19,MichSt37-20,OSU45-10;w@Iowa22-17
24	22.	W. Michigan	9-3	L@Nebraska47-24,@CMich38-28,@BallSt45-22
--	23.	Oregon State	8-4	L@Stan36-28,@PSU45-14,@Utah31-28,Ore65-38;wUSC27-21
--	24.	Mississippi	8-4	L@Wake30-28,Vand23-17,SCar31-24,@Ala24-20;w@Fla31-30
--	25.	Iowa	8-4	L@Ill27-24,@Pitt21-20,Nwest22-17,@MSU16-13;wPSU24-23
		out:
19	--	Missouri	9-4	L=KU40-37,OKst28-23,@Tex56-31,=Oklahoma62-21
20	--	Boston Coll.	9-4	L Clem27-21, @UNC45-24,=VTech30-12,GTech19-16
22	--	Tulsa	10-3	L@Ark30-23,@Houston70-30,ECar27-24

 

The rest of the field is just jockeying for a better final ranking. #6 Alabama can finish #2 if everything goes right, which includes Florida beating Oklahoma. Otherwise I'll probably keep Florida ahead of them. #7 USC and #8 Penn State are in the same boat: the winner moves up, the loser moves down, but both have a high "floor" due to #10 Ohio State. The Buckeyes therefore can't move up much even if they upset the Longhorns; instead Texas would take a tumble.

Then there are #9 Boise State, and #11 TCU, who also play each other. Again it will be hard to move up much, though Boise State has more upside if they win and finish unbeaten. TCU has two "ceilings" above them: Oklahoma and Utah. If both those teams win, however, they deserve a top ten finish. Along with Texas they held Oklahoma to their season low point total (35) so far.

#12 Oklahoma State has the distinction of having lost to the #1, #2, and #3 teams. Now they have to prove they can beat a real top 25 team, since previous victim Missouri falls out this week. They meet #18 Oregon.

#13 Cincinnati (2 losses) and #14 Ball State (1 loss) probably can't gain much despite their low loss totals, as they haven't beaten enough good teams to move past even those who will be falling out of the top echelon. Likewise, #16 BYU (2 losses) plays Arizona, a win that won't help them much.

#17 Georgia meets #19 Michigan State in the Capital One bowl, but none of the other 3-loss teams have much of a shot at improving their status. However, and team that finishes with 3 losses or fewer is basically guaranteed a slot in the final top 25. Even Tulsa (who falls out this week) and Rice (who is 9-3 and stuck behind Tulsa due to losing to them) can easily get in, as they play Ball State and #22 Western Michigan respectively.

There will be many four-loss teams vying for slots, and right now Oregon State, Mississippi, and Iowa are in due to their big upsets of USC, Florida, and Penn State. Of the three Mississippi has the best shot of moving up from a bowl win, as they play Texas Tech; Iowa has the least, since they are stuck behind three teams: #19 Michigan State, #20 Pitt and #21 Northwestern. If any of those teams lose, the Hawks will probably stay where they are even if they beat South Carolina, a win that holds little cachet regardless.

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - week 14

Does Alabama deserve to be #1? Their lone significant win, over Georgia, looks less than amazing in retrospect, and the SEC as a whole is clearly down this year—witness the Arkansas/LSU game with both teams unranked, which showed the conference's decline from 2007. But the Tide will get a chance to prove it next week against Florida, the one SEC team no one's questioning right now. In strict terms, Florida's résumé isn't all that great—a loss to Mississippi and a win over the same Georgia team Alabama beat. But they keep winning by 30+ points, so humans and computers allowed to see that aspect rank them much higher. For these rankings, résumé is everything, so the Gators are #6 until next week.

In between from #2 to #5 are the Big Twelve teams and Utah. The Texas/Oklahoma/Texas Tech round-robin tie still goes to Texas. It might be hard to keep it that way if the Sooners beat Missouri and Alabama/Florida, but for now I'm following my guidelines. And if Oklahoma loses, I probably won't put Tech above the Longhorns, as head-to-head order would want. Utah will probably get a shot at Texas or Alabama/Florida, so they're in the mix too. An undefeated team with several big wins deserves consideration as the top team, and unlike Hawaii last year they've played a solid schedule and won convincingly most of the time.

USC stays #7 and Penn State #8, and I don't have to worry any longer about which team I should rank ahead of the other since they should be meeting in the Rose Bowl. As long as USC beats UCLA, which this year seems more certain than ever. And an upset there would settle the question as well.

#9 Boise State and #10 Ball State completed 12-0 seasons, though the latter has a conference championship game left. Oregon's win over Oregon State gives the Broncos their one significant win back, and Ball State has wins over Western and Central Michigan. By that measure, each is the equal of Alabama, but their overall schedules are much weaker.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 14 (11-30-2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Significant wins/losses
1	1.	Alabama	12-0	w@Georgia41-30
2	2.	Texas	11-1	L@TTech39-33;w=OK45-35,Mizz56-31,OkSt28-24
3	3.	Oklahoma	11-1	L=Tex45-35;wTTech65-21,TCU35-7,Cin52-26,@OkSt61-41
4	4.	Texas Tech	11-1	L@OK65-21;wTexas39-33,OklaSt56-20
5	5.	Utah	12-0	wTCU13-10,BYU48-24,OreSt31-28
6	6.	Florida	11-1	L Miss31-30;w=GA49-10,@FSU45-15
7	7.	Southern Cal	10-1	L@OreSt27-21;wOhioState35-3,Oregon44-10
8	8.	Penn State	11-1	L@Iowa24-23;w@OSU13-6,MichSt48-19,OreSt45-14
9	9.	Boise State	12-0	w@Oregon37-32
10	10.	Ball State	12-0	wWMich45-22,@CMich31-24
11	11.	Ohio State	10-2	L@USC35-3,PennSt13-6;wMichSt45-7,@Nwest45-10
14	12.	TCU	10-2	L@OK35-7,@Utah13-10;wBYU32-7
13	13.	Oklahoma St.	9-3	L@TTech56-20,@Tex28-24,OK61-41;w@Mizz28-23
16	14.	Cincinnati	10-2	L@UConn40-16,@OK52-26;wPitt28-21
19	15.	Georgia Tech	9-3	L@Vt20-17,Va24-17,@NC28-7;w@GA45-42,@BC19-16,FSU31-28
17	16.	BYU	10-2	L@TCU32-7,@Utah48-24
12	17.	Georgia	9-3	L GT45-42,=FLA49-10,Ala41-30;CMich56-17
23	18.	Oregon	9-3	L@Cal26-16,BoiseSt37-32,@USC44-10;w@OreSt65-38
15	19.	Missouri	9-3	L=KU40-37,OKst28-23,@Tex56-31
20	20.	Boston Coll.	9-3	L Clem27-21, @UNC45-24,GTech19-16;w@FSU27-17
24	21.	Michigan St.	9-3	L@Cal38-31,OSU45-7,@PennSt48-19;w@Nwest37-20
25t	22.	Tulsa	10-2	L@Arkansas30-23,@Houston70-30
--	23.	Pittsburgh	8-3	L BowlGr27-17,L Rutgers54-34,@Cincy28-21
21	24.	W. Michigan	9-3	L@Nebraska47-24,@CMich38-28,@BallSt45-22
--	25.	Northwestern	9-3	L@Ind21-19,MichSt37-20,OSU45-10
		out:
18	--	Oregon State	8-4	L@Stan36-28,@PSU45-14,@Utah31-28,Ore65-38;wUSC27-21
22	--	Florida State	8-4	L Wake12-3,@GTech31-28,BC27-17,FL45-15
25t	--	C. Michigan	8-4	L@EMi56-52,@Pur35-32,@GA56-17,BallSt31-24;wWMi38-28

Ohio State stayed at #11 and Oklahoma State remained #13 despite their loss to Oklahoma. Considering that their three losses are to the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th ranked teams and they have a solid road win over Missouri, they needn't fall. TCU does jump them into the #12 spot, as former #12 Georgia drops to 17th. The team that beat them, Georgia Tech, makes the top 15; currently the Yellow Jackets have three losses to 4-loss teams and two wins over top 25 teams. BYU edges up a spot to #16.

Oregon makes a big move up to #18, and Oregon State falls out for now—they'll be back in for sure if they win their bowl game. Missouri slides to 19th after losing to Kansas, and may fall out next week (of course, beating the Sooners would improve their stock immensely). Boston College, who will play for a BCS berth, and Michigan State follow. Tulsa barely beat Marshall and is easily the lamest 2-loss team; they also have a conference title game, against East Carolina, coming up.

Tulsa does have a win over Rice, the only 9-3 team left out of the rankings this week; if Tulsa loses next week, both teams will likely be on the outside until the bowl season. I made a conscious decision not to include any four-loss teams this week, since the three with big upset wins—Oregon State, Mississippi, and Iowa—are all very close and including one of them would confuse the situation at the top. But next week some of them may enter, though Iowa is stuck behind both #23 Pittsburgh and #25 Northwestern, even if either of the latter suffer their 4th loss, which Pitt might have against Connecticut next week.

Along with the Beavers, Florida State and Central Michigan dropped out. The former lost big to Florida, but that's not so bad that a bowl win can't get them back in. The latter lost to 3-9 Eastern Michigan, which gives the Chippewas two losses to losing teams and probably precludes them from making the final top 25.

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - week 13

After much soul-searching and delaying I've finally decided on how to rank the top teams, for now, while trying to follow my guidelines. Oklahoma's blowout of Texas Tech created a three-way round robin between the Sooners, Red Raiders, and Texas, putting them in a virtual tie. Deciding on an order wasn't difficult: Tech has to be last since they were crushed, while Texas won on a neutral field against Oklahoma, and lost only on a last-second play. But things get dicey if Oklahoma loses and Texas Tech again has priority over Texas; this may be a case where I have to disregard my head-to-head-always-rules guideline. But we'll see.

Alabama finally gets to be #1, even as their résumé looks weaker than ever, with wins over Georgia and LSU looking far from impressive. Still, they haven't lost, and will have to prove they are #1 to stay there by beating Florida and possibly Oklahoma. Meanwhile #5 Utah's résumé looks stronger than ever, with three wins over top 25 teams and one just falling out. With no games left, the Utes can still move up if others above them falter, and right now I see no reason to put #6 Florida ahead of them, as they have basically the same record as Alabama but with a loss. Head-to-head I think Florida wins handily, but I tend to discount margin-of-victory, except in big games, and look at quality wins. We may get to see these two play—or Utah play Alabama—since it looks like the Utes will get a quality opponent unlike in 2004. Too bad their team isn't the equal of that one.

USC stays #7 and Penn State #8. Along with Florida these are teams that are probably all top five in quality, but have unfortunate losses that drag them down. Hopefully these two will play in the Rose Bowl and the debate can end.

#9 Boise State and #10 Ball State remain undefeated and now they both have an accomplishment by their name: the Cardinals for beating Central Michigan, and the Broncos for their early-season win over Oregon. If these two aren't going to be in a BCS bowl they should at least be matched up in some other bowl, but I'm not sure there's a good mechanism in place for that.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 13 (11-23-2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Big wins/losses
2	1.	Alabama	11-0	w@Georgia41-30,@LSU27-21ot
3	2.	Texas	10-1	L@TTech39-33;w=OK45-35,Mizz56-31,OkSt28-24
4	3.	Oklahoma	10-1	L=Texas45-35;wTTech65-21,TCU35-7,Cin52-26
1	4.	Texas Tech	10-0	L@OK65-21;wTexas39-33,OklaSt56-20
5	5.	Utah	12-0	wTCU13-10,BYU48-24,OreSt31-28,@AirForce30-23
6	6.	Florida	10-1	L Miss31-30;w=GA49-10,LSU51-21
7	7.	Southern Cal	9-1	L@OreSt27-21;wOhioState35-3,Oregon44-10
8	8.	Penn State	11-1	L@Iowa24-23;w@OSU13-6,MichSt48-19,OreSt45-14
9	9.	Boise State	11-0	w@Oregon37-32
10	10.	Ball State	11-0	w@CMich31-24
11	11.	Ohio State	10-2	L@USC35-3,PennSt13-6;wMichSt45-7
12	12.	Georgia	9-2	L=FLA49-10,Ala41-30;wCMich56-17,@LSU52-38
13	13.	Oklahoma State	9-2	L@TTech56-20,@Texas28-24;w@Missouri28-23
14	14.	TCU	10-2	L@OK35-7,@Utah13-10;wBYU32-7,AirForce44-10
15	15.	Missouri	9-2	L OKst28-23,@Tex56-31
17	16.	Cincinnati	9-2	L@UConn40-16,@OK52-26;wPitt28-21
16	17.	Brigham Young	10-2	L@TCU32-7,@Utah48-24;w@AirForce38-24
--	18.	Oregon State	8-3	L@Stan36-28,@PennSt45-14,@Utah31-28;wUSC27-21
--	19.	Georgia Tech	8-3	L@VT20-17,VA24-17,@UNC28-7;w@BC19-16,FSU31-28
--	20.	Boston College	8-3	L Clem27-21, @UNC45-24,GTech19-16;w@FSU27-17
21	21.	Western Michigan	9-2	L@Nebraska47-24,@CMich38-28
--	22.	Florida State	8-3	L Wake12-3,@GTech31-28,BC27-17;wMary37-3
--	23.	Oregon	8-3	L@Cal26-16,BoiseSt37-32,@USC44-10
18	24.	Michigan State	9-3	L@Cal38-31,OSU45-7,@PennSt48-19
20	25t	Central Michigan	8-3	L@Purdue35-32,@GA56-17,BallSt31-24;wWMich38-28
--	25t	Tulsa	8-2	L@Arkansas30-23,@Houston70-30
		out:
22	--	Pittsburgh	7-3	L BowlGr27-17,L Rutgers54-34,@Cincy28-21
19	--	LSU	7-4	L Miss31-13,@FLA51-21,GA52-38,Ala27-21ot
23	--	Air Force	8-4	L Navy33-27,Utah30-23,BYU38-24,@TCU44-10
24	--	Maryland	7-4	L@mTN24-14,@VA31-0,@VT23-13,FSU37-3;wUNC17-15
25	--	North Carolina	7-4	L NCst41-10,@VA16-13ot,VTech20-17,@Mary17-15

11-15 remain the same. Of these, #11 Ohio State and #14 TCU have finished their seasons, and #12 Georgia plays Georgia Tech. The teams with a chance to move up, of course, are #13 Oklahoma State (who plays Oklahoma) and #15 Missouri (in the Big Twelve championship).

#17 BYU falls only one spot for losing to Utah, while Cincinnati's defeat of Pitt moves them up slightly. Then comes the ever-changing slate of 3-loss teams, headed by Oregon State, who finally gets in at #18 along with Oregon at #23 to give the Pac-10 more representation. One of the two will remain next week. The ACC's revolving-door reps this week are #19 Georgia Tech (thrashed Miami), #22 Florida State (crushed Maryland), and #20 Boston College (previously defeated FSU). Next week Georgia Tech plays Georgia and FSU faces Florida, and after that there's the ACC title game, so by the end of the season, all ACC teams may have four or more losses; unless they do well come bowl time, the ACC might not have any Top 25 teams.

Three Michigan teams—Western Michigan and Central Michigan from the MAC, and Michigan State—are in the last five. Or, six, since Tulsa is added so that all 2-loss teams are in, though they only rate a tie at 25 due to poor résumé.

All the teams that suffered their fourth loss—LSU, Air Force, Maryland, UNC—are out, along with Pittsburgh who has a weak argument for a 3-loss team. They play West Virginia this coming week, a team with a nearly identical loss record (both lost to a losing team, a non-rated team, and Cincinnati) and the winner will probably get in next week. The remaining 3-loss teams are on the outside looking in because they must be ranked below teams they lost to: Rice (lost previously to #25 Tulsa) and Northwestern (lost to #24 Michigan State).

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - week 12

Not much to say this week, obviously: no team in the top 16 lost, and few even had scares. The highest-rated team that played another ranked team was #16 BYU.

So maybe a preview of the coming weekend's games is in order. #1 Texas Tech travels to #4 Oklahoma in a game that will certainly convolute the national title picture if the Sooners win. In that case those two teams, plus #3 Texas, will be tied for the lead in the Big Twelve south. Oklahoma still has to play Oklahoma State, of course, and one of the three will play Missouri for the Big Twelve title. If that team loses, then the other two are back in play. If Oklahoma plays and beats Missouri, in my mind that only evens them with Texas, who already beat the Tigers. So I'm not sure I wouldn't have Texas the highest-rated B12 team based on their win over Oklahoma on a neutral field. Texas and #2 Alabama are idle this weekend.

#5 Utah takes on #16 BYU. A win would give the Utes three wins over ranked teams, and a legitimate claim in my mind to the national title game. A loss would drop them somewhere below the Cougars, but really both teams should be in the top 10 in that case, as Utah's résumé would have a couple of solid wins to go with an excuseable loss, which is actually better than #6 Florida, #7 Southern Cal, and #8 Penn State can say. Speaking of those teams, USC has the week off and Florida does too for all intents and purposes as they host The Citadel. Penn State takes on #18 Michigan State for the Big Ten title. If they lose, it creates a three-way round-robin with #11 Ohio State. The Buckeyes would probably be on top of that tie, as both of their losses are to top ten teams.

#9 Boise State and #10 Ball State, both undefeated, face Nevada and #20 Central Michigan, respectively. If Ball State wins Wednesday night, they have a claim to be ahead of the Broncos, who won't have a top 25 win. However, they'll still be essentially equal as Boise State beat 8-3 Oregon, who could get in the top 25 at any time. The Chippawas have an argument to be ahead of Ball State if they beat them convincingly.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 12 (11-16-2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Big wins/losses
1	1.	Texas Tech	10-0	wTexas39-33,OklaSt56-20
2	2.	Alabama	11-0	w@Georgia41-30,@LSU27-21ot
3	3.	Texas	10-1	L@TTech39-33;w=OK45-35,Mizz56-31,OkSt28-24
4	4.	Oklahoma	9-1	L=Texas45-35;wTCU35-7,Cin52-26
5	5.	Utah	11-0	wTCU13-10,@AirForce30-23
6	6.	Florida	9-1	L Miss31-30;w=GA49-10,LSU51-21
7	7.	Southern Cal	9-1	L@OreSt27-21;wOhioState35-3
8	8.	Penn State	10-1	L@Iowa24-23;w@OhioState13-6
9	9.	Boise State	10-0
10	10.	Ball State	10-0
11	11.	Ohio State	9-2	L@USC35-3,PennSt13-6;wMichSt45-7
12	12.	Georgia	9-2	L=FLA49-10,Ala41-30;w@LSU52-38,CMich56-17
13	13.	Oklahoma State	9-2	L@TTech56-20,@Texas28-24;w@Missouri28-23
14	14.	TCU	9-2	L@OK35-7,@Utah13-10;wBYU32-7
15	15.	Missouri	9-2	L OKst28-23,@Tex56-31
16	16.	Brigham Young	10-1	L@TCU32-7;w@AirForce38-24
18	17.	Cincinnati	8-2	L@UConn40-16,@OK52-26
19	18.	Michigan State	9-2	L@Cal38-31,OSU45-7
23	19.	LSU	7-3	L@Florida51-21,Georgia52-38,Alabama27-21ot
24	20.	Central Michigan	8-2	L@Purdue32-35,@Georgia56-17;wWMich38-28
25	21.	Western Michigan	9-2	L@Nebraska47-24,@CMich38-28
--	22.	Pittsburgh	7-2	L BowlGr27-17,L Rutgers54-34
20	23.	Air Force	8-3	L Navy33-27,Utah30-23,BYU38-24
--	24.	Maryland	7-3	L@MidTenn24-14,@Virg31-0,@VTech23-13;wUNC17-15
17	25.	North Carolina	7-3	L@Virg16-13ot,VTech20-17,@Mary17-15
		out:
21	--	Florida State	7-3	L Wake12-3,@GTech31-28,BC27-17
22	--	Tulsa	8-2	L@Arkansas30-23,@Houston70-30

Now the pack of 2-loss teams. After Ohio State, #12 Georgia, #13 Oklahoma State, and #15 Missouri are idle. #14 TCU battles #23 Air Force. The Falcons stayed in the top 25 after their loss to BYU, but another loss would put them out. A win, though, would drop TCU below them—but TCU's résumé will still be better than #19 LSU's, so Air Force would probably have to jump over LSU.

#17 Cincinnati faces new #22 Pitt for the Big East title, most likely. The winner may be the only Big East team in the final regular season rankings a few weeks from now. The other 'Big Six' conference hurting for Top 25 representatives is the ACC, who currently has Maryland and North Carolina, whom the Terps just beat. Six teams in the ACC have three overall losses, and a perfect pecking order among them:

1. Maryland: beat North Carolina
2. North Carolina: lost to Maryland; beat Georgia Tech, Miami
3. Georgia Tech: lost to North Carolina; beat Boston College, Florida State
4. Boston College: lost to Georgia Tech, North Carolina; beat Florida State
5. Florida State: lost to Boston College, Georgia Tech; beat Miami
6. Miami: lost to Florida State, North Carolina

Ironically, Miami is one of two teams (along with Maryland) that control their own destiny in the conference, each having only two ACC losses. The 'Canes play Georgia Tech this weekend; Maryland plays Florida State; North Carolina plays North Carolina State, and Boston College takes on Wake Forest.

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are now the only 2-loss team not in the rankings; Pitt joined at #22, while Tulsa's 40-point loss to Houston was a little too much to stomach.

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - week 11

It's easy to rate the performance of the previous week's top three teams. Ex-#3 Penn State lost at Iowa; #2 Alabama edged former #19 LSU in overtime; and #1 Texas Tech stomped #8 Oklahoma State 56-20. So while the top two teams both have two wins over top 25 teams, the Red Raiders' victories are more substantial and they unquestionably deserve the top spot right now.

Moving up a spot each are Texas and Oklahoma; the Longhorns need a Tech loss to get back into the national title picture and Oklahoma might be the team to do it two weeks from now. That would cause a three-way tie between the teams, and in my mind Texas would be at the top of that pile with their neutral-field win over the Sooners. Note that Oklahoma's biggest win so far this year is over TCU—a team that #5 Utah beat in a nail-biter, a game they should have lost. With Air Force entering the poll, though, the Utes have two significant wins.

The next three teams are tied for all practical purposes, each having a slim loss to a non-top 25 team, but Florida has two solid wins and edges past USC, who knocked Cal out of the rankings. The USC-Penn State comparison is interesting: both have a road loss and a win over Ohio State. USC's was more impressive certainly, but Penn State can counter with their crushing win over Oregon State. I might go back and forth on this one, but hopefully it will be settled on the field in the Rose Bowl. Note that if Oregon State and Penn State win out, the two will have a rematch of the 45-14 game from September, a prospect that might be worse than the USC-Ohio State rematch many feared.

Rounding out the top ten are undefeated Boise State and Ball State. The latter faces a couple of tough games (Central and Western Michigan) and a league championship game, and could move past the Broncos if successful in completing an undefeated slate.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 11 (11-09-2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Big wins/losses
1	1.	Texas Tech	10-0	wTexas39-33,OklaSt56-20
2	2.	Alabama	10-0	w@Georgia41-30,@LSU27-21ot
4	3.	Texas	9-1	L@TTech39-33;w=OK45-35,Mizz56-31,OkSt28-24
5	4.	Oklahoma	9-1	L=Texas45-35;wTCU35-7,Cin52-26
7	5.	Utah	10-0	wTCU13-10,@AirForce30-23
9	6.	Florida	8-1	L Miss31-30;w=GA49-10,LSU51-21
8	7.	Southern Cal	8-1	L@OreSt27-21;wOhioState35-3,California17-3
3	8.	Penn State	9-1	L@Iowa24-23;w@OhioState13-6
10	9.	Boise State	9-0
12	10.	Ball State	9-0
13	11.	Ohio State	8-2	L@USC35-3,PennSt13-6;wMichSt45-7,@Nwest45-10
14	12.	Georgia	8-2	L=FLA49-10,Ala41-30;w@LSU52-38,CMich56-17
6	13.	Oklahoma St	8-2	L@TTech56-20,@Texas28-24;w@Missouri28-23
11	14.	TCU	9-2	L@OK35-7,@Utah13-10;wBYU32-7
15	15.	Missouri	8-2	L OKst28-23,@Tex56-31
16	16.	BYU	9-1	L@TCU32-7
17	17.	North Carolina	7-2	L@Virg16-13ot,VTech20-17;wGTech28-7
20	18.	Cincinnati	7-2	L@UConn40-16,@OK52-26;w@WVA26-23ot
23	19.	Michigan State	9-2	L@Cal38-31,OSU45-7;w@Nwest37-20
	20.	Air Force	8-2	L Navy33-27,Utah30-23
	21.	Florida State	7-2	L Wake12-3,@GTech31-28
25t	22.	Tulsa	8-1	L@Arkansas30-23
19	23.	LSU	6-3	L@Florida51-21,Georgia52-38,Alabama27-21ot
	24.	Central Mich.	7-2	L@Purdue32-35,@Georgia56-17;wWMich38-28
	25.	Western Mich.	8-2	L@Nebraska47-24,@CMich38-28
		out:
24	-	Northwestern	7-3	L@Ind21-19,MichSt37-20,OSU45-10
21	-	Maryland	6-3	L@MidTenn24-14,@Virg31-0,@VTech23-13;wCal35-27
22	-	California	6-3	L@Ariz42-27,@Mary35-27,@USC17-3;wMichSt38-31
18	-	Georgia Tech	6-3	L@VTech20-17,Virg24-17,@UNC28-7
25t	-	West Virginia	6-3	L@Colo17-14ot,@ECar24-3,Cincy26-23ot

Slots 11 through 14 are filled by teams who each has 1) Two losses to top ten teams 2) one of which was a major blowout, and 3) at least one win over a top 25 team. Ohio State sits at top for crushing Northwestern, while Georgia now has two (lower rung) top 25 wins. Oklahoma State and TCU lost this week but previously beat the next two teams in line, Missouri and BYU.

#17 North Carolina won their battle with Georgia Tech, while Cincinnati knocked West Virginia off the list. Michigan State rises to fill the void left by Northwestern, Cal, and Maryland, all of whom lost.

LSU falls to #23, staying in despite three losses as all are to top 25 teams; they face Troy next week and will have to prove they still belong here. Idle Tulsa advances as well, while 2-loss teams fill the gaps. FSU is in once again; #20 Air Force hosts BYU next week; Western Michigan defeated Illinois this weekend, and previously lost to #24 Central Michigan. Both teams get a shot at Ball State in the coming weeks.

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - Week 10

The top three teams in the new SportsRatings Top 25 are all undefeated and have one big win. So we did we move Texas Tech to the top? Simple: their big win was by far the biggest of the three. #2 Alabama's big win over Georgia just got a whole lot less impressive over the weekend, and Penn State's doesn't compare either. This also maintains the proper pecking order should these teams go undefeated: the Nittany Lions face one more top 25 foe (Michigan State), while Alabama faces LSU and likely Florida for the SEC title. The Red Raiders have the toughest assignment: Oklahoma State, then Oklahoma, and should they win those, probably Missouri in the Big Twelve Championship game.

The next three teams are all 1-loss Big Twelve teams. #4 Texas beat both #5 Oklahoma and #6 Oklahoma State. Both of the latter will yet play Texas Tech, and then each other, so things could get really complicated, and there is even a possibility that the respresentative from the Big Twelve South could be determined by a coin flip (yes, it's in the tiebreaker rules).

BCS hopeful Utah escaped New Mexico and remained at #7; next week they might not be so lucky, as they face #11 TCU, who would also have an excellent resume for a BCS bowl should they beat the Utes. Not sure whether a win by the Horned Frogs would leap them over #8 USC and #9 Florida, who each have a loss to a non-top 25 foe. The two teams have essentially equal profiles right now: both playing dominant football, with one bizarre loss on their records. Each has a blowout win over a near-top-10 opponent, and a second strong win as well. Florida has two top 25 wins while USC now only has one, but the Gators also lost at home. Boise State patiently rounds out the top 10, still undefeated, but playing a weak schedule save Oregon, while #12 Ball State doesn't even have that.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 10 (11-02-2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Big wins/losses
4	1.	Texas Tech	9-0	wTexas39-33
2	2.	Alabama	9-0	w@GA41-30
3	3.	Penn State	9-0	w@OhioState13-6
1	4.	Texas	8-1	L@TTech39-33;w=OK45-35,Mizz56-31,OkSt28-24
5	5.	Oklahoma	8-1	L=Texas45-35;wTCU35-7,Cin52-26
6	6.	Oklahoma St	8-1	L@Texas28-24;w@Missouri28-23
7	7.	Utah	9-0
8	8.	Southern Cal	7-1	L@OreSt27-21;wOSU35-3,Oregon44-10
11	9.	Florida	7-1	L Miss31-30;wLSU51-21,=GA49-10
10	10.	Boise State	8-0	w@Oregon37-32
12	11.	TCU	9-1	L@OK35-7;wBYU32-7
13	12.	Ball State	8-0
15	13.	Ohio State	7-2	L@USC35-3,PennSt13-6;wMichSt45-7,wMinn34-21
9	14.	Georgia	7-2	L=FLA49-10,Ala41-30;w@LSU52-38
16	15.	Missouri	7-2	L OKst28-23,@Tex56-31
17	16.	Brigham Young	8-1	L@TCU32-7
19	17.	North Carolina	6-2	L@Virg16-13ot,VTech20-17;wConn38-12
	18.	Georgia Tech	6-2	L@VTech20-17,Virg24-17;wFSU31-28
24	19.	LSU	6-2	L@Florida51-21,Georgia52-38
25	20.	Cincinnati	6-2	L@UConn40-16,@OK52-26
	21.	Maryland	6-2	L@MidTenn24-14,@Virg31-0;wCal35-27
	22.	California	6-2	L@Ariz42-27,@Mary35-27;wMichSt38-31
	23.	Michigan State	8-2	L@Cal38-31,OSU45-7;w@Nwest37-20
	24.	Northwestern	7-2	L@Ind21-19,MichSt37-20;w@Minn24-17
14	25t	Tulsa	8-1	L@Arkansas30-23
	25t	West Virginia	6-2	L@Colo17-14ot,@ECar24-3;w@UConn35-13
18	--	Minnesota	7-2	L@OhioSt34-21,Nwest24-17
20	--	Florida State	6-2	L Wake12-3,@GTech31-28
23	--	Oregon	6-3	L@USC44-10,BoiseState37-32,@Cal26-16
21	--	Connecticut	6-3	L@Rut12-10,WVA35-13,@UNC38-12;wLou26-21
22	--	Louisville	5-3	L@Syr28-21,Kentucky27-2,@UConn26-21

#13 Ohio State and #14 Georgia also have very similar résumés: crushed by one top ten team (35-3 to USC, 49-10 to Florida), a loss to a top five team (Penn State, Alabama) and a strong win over a top 25 team (Michigan State, LSU). The Buckeyes win the tiebreaker this week for also beating 7-2 Minnesota. #15 Missouri is probably better than either of those teams despite their struggle with Baylor, but they have no wins over high quality opposition. Their losses, like the Bucks and 'Dogs, are both to top 10 teams.

After #16 BYU—who struggled again this week—comes the weekly avalanche of ACC, Big East, and Big Ten teams. North Carolina was idle and slides up to #17, and Georgia Tech comes back in at #18 after beating former #20 FSU. UNC and Georgia Tech not only share similar profiles, but they've lost to the same teams—Virginia and Virginia Tech—and in the latter case by the exact same score! So who is better? They settle that next week when they play at Chapel Hill.

LSU and Cincinnati move up five spots each, and are followed by a logical chaining of 2-loss teams: #21 Maryland beat #22 California who beat #23 Michigan State who beat #24 Northwestern, who knocked Minnesota out of the top 25. Cal also knocked out Oregon State, who is 6-3 with losses only to top 25 teams. Tulsa falls to #25 after losing to Arkansas, while West Virginia joins them in a tie after knocking out UConn. Another Big East team, Louisville, suffered another embarrassing loss to Syracuse and dropped out.

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - week 9

Barely a move in the top ten; Oklahoma State drops one spot to #6, behind Oklahoma, another team that lost to #1 Texas. The Longhorns have a lock on the top spot, having defeated two top ten teams and another top 20 team. #2 Alabama also has a top ten win, while #3 Penn State picks up their first top 25 victory of the season. The pecking order in the top three is well-established in rank of schedule difficulty. Should #4 Texas Tech, who smothered ex-#22 Kansas 63-21, defeat Texas next week, they'd have a strong claim to the top spot. In the weeks that follow they face both Oklahoma squads, giving them ample opportunity to relinquish it to the Tide.

#7 Utah was idle, #8 USC had another of their brain fart games against Arizona, winning 17-10. #9 Georgia beat LSU Saturday and has a good argument for belonging ahead of USC if they beat #11 Florida next weekend: two top 25 wins vs. a loss to the #2 team. Florida's argument should they win is less valid, as they previously lost to Mississippi, a team toeing the .500 line. At #10, Boise State looks set to finish in the magical BCS top twelve should they win out, but Utah's presence is a complicating factor, as only one top-12 non-BCS conference team is guaranteed a BCS bowl slot.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 9 (10-26-2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Big wins/losses
1	1.	Texas	8-0	w=OK45-35,Mizz56-31,OkSt28-24
2	2.	Alabama	8-0	w@GA41-30
3	3.	Penn State	9-0	w@OhioState13-6
4	4.	Texas Tech	8-0	w@Kansas63-21
6	5.	Oklahoma	7-1	L=Tex45-35;wTCU35-7,Cin52-26,KU45-31
5	6.	Oklahoma State	7-1	L@Texas28-24;w@Missouri28-23
7	7.	Utah	8-0
8	8.	Southern Cal	6-1	L@OreSt27-21;wOSU35-3,Oregon44-10
9	9.	Georgia	7-1	L Ala41-30;w@LSU52-38
10	10.	Boise State	7-0	w@Oregon37-32
12	11.	Florida	6-1	L Miss31-30;wLSU51-21
15	12.	TCU	8-1	L@OK35-7;wBYU32-7
17	13.	Ball State	8-0
19	14.	Tulsa	8-0
11	15.	Ohio State	7-2	L@USC35-3,PennSt13-6;wMinn34-21
21	16.	Missouri	6-2	L OKst28-23,@Tex56-31
20	17.	Brigham Young	7-1	L@TCU32-7
25	18.	Minnesota	7-1	L@OhioSt34-21
--	19.	North Carolina	6-2	L@VA16-13ot,VT20-17;wConn38-12,BC45-24
--	20.	Florida State	6-1	L WakeForest12-3
--	21.	Connecticut	6-2	L@Rut12-10,@NC38-12;wLou26-21,Cin40-16
--	22.	Louisville	5-2	L Kentucky27-2,@UConn26-21;wUSF24-20
--	23.	Oregon	6-2	L@USC44-10,BoiseState37-32
18	24.	LSU	5-2	L@Florida51-21,Georgia52-38
16	25.	Cincinnati	5-2	L@UConn40-16,@OK52-26
13	--	Pittsburgh	5-2	L BowlGr27-17,Rut54-34;w@USF26-21
14	--	South Florida	6-2	L Pitt26-21,@Lou24-20;wKU37-34
23	--	Georgia Tech	6-2	L@VT20-17,VA24-17;w@BC19-16
24	--	Boston College	5-2	L GTech19-16,@UNC45-24
22	--	Kansas	5-3	L@USF37-34,@OK45-31,TTech63-21

TCU is another non-BCS school hoping for a BCS bowl bid, despite having a loss. Their only blemish is to Oklahoma, and they beat BYU, so if they can add Utah to their prize list they have a decent shot at making it. Undefeateds Ball State and Tulsa will need a bit more help. Tulsa had another big 2nd half against UCF Sunday evening, and unlike the other polls and the BCS, I actually waited for that game to be played before coming out with my week 9 rankings! Now that all the unbeaten teams are in the top 15, here come the highest-ranked 2-loss teams, #15 Ohio State and #16 Missouri. The Buckeyes have a win over Minnesota and losses to the #3 and #8 team; the Tigers have no big wins—and no more top 25 teams on their schedule—but have lost only to the #1 and #6 team, and if they keeping beating teams 58-0 they'll earn their upward moves despite a weaker schedule. Plus, they'll play their way into the Big Twelve championship game, where they might be the ultimate spoiler. They jump over 1-loss BYU, who struggled to beat UNLV.

#18 Minnesota, 1-11 last year and 7-1 this season, moves up seven spots due to a rash of losses in the lower half of the rankings. #20 Florida State, the final 1-loss team, enters at #20. Neither team has an impressive win.

Several teams entered the rankings by knocking out other teams: #19 North Carolina re-enters after beating Boston College, who drops out; Connecticut comes back at #21, knocking Cincinnati down nine spots; #22 Louisville upset #14 South Florida, who fell out because A) they lost, B)their win over Kansas was diminished by Kansas' big loss, and C) the other team that beat them, ex-#13 Pittsburgh, lost their 2nd game to a losing team and dropped out themselves.

The last few teams, #23 Oregon, #24 LSU, and #25 Cincinnati, each has two losses to teams ranked above them. Oregon lost to the highest-rated teams, Cincinnati the lowest. LSU lost to good teams but was soundly defeated both times.

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - week 8

Texas solidified its spot at number one by thrashing Missouri 56-31 Saturday in the 2nd of their 4-game stretch of Top 25 opponents. Right now they are the only undefeated team that has beaten more than one Top 25 foe. Alabama and Penn State hold at #2 and #3; the Tide had a great first half against Mississippi and held on to win 24-20, while the Lions had a great 2nd half to come from behind and beat Michigan 46-17. Two more Big 12 teams round out the top 5, Texas Tech beating A&M 43-25 and Oklahoma State defeating Baylor 34-6. The Red Raiders started the year at #5 and have only advanced one spot despite going 7-0. Next week they have to prove their mettle against Kansas, while Penn State faces Ohio State for their first top 25 challenge. Meanwhile Texas and Oklahoma State clash, so there is much opportunity for a top five shakeup next week.

#6 Oklahoma beat Kansas 45-31 and now holds three wins over top 25 teams, with only one loss to the #1 team. It's criminal that they're behind USC in the coaches' poll. Despite the latter's 69-0 demolition of Washington State they hold at #8, passed by Utah. The Utes are undefeated and beat the team that beat the Trojans, and if both win out I contend that Utah should be ahead of USC in line for the BCS championship game. Georgia and undefeated Boise State round out the top ten. If USC had lost to Oregon, a team that the Broncos beat, instead of Oregon State, then I'd have Boise State ahead of USC instead of Utah.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 8 (10-19-2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/wins vs. Top 25
1	1	Texas	7-0	w=Oklahoma45-35;wMissouri56-31
2	2	Alabama	7-0	w@Georgia41-30
3	3	Penn State	8-0
4	4	Texas Tech	7-0
5	5	Oklahoma State	7-0	w@Missouri28-23
6	6	Oklahoma	6-1	L=Tex45-35;wCin52-26;wTCU35-7;wKU45-31
10	7	Utah	8-0
8	8	Southern Cal	5-1	L@OreSt27-21;wOhioSt35-3
9	9	Georgia	6-1	L Ala41-30
11	10	Boise State	6-0
14	11	Ohio State	7-1	L@USC35-3;wMinn34-21;w@MichSt45-7
13	12	Florida	5-1	L OleMiss31-30;wLSU51-21
15	13	Pittsburgh	5-1	L BowlingGreen27-17;w@USF26-21
16	14	South Florida	6-1	L Pitt26-21;wKansas37-34
--	15	TCU	7-1	L@Oklahoma35-7;wBYU32-7
18	16	Cincinnati	5-1	L@Oklahoma52-26
19	17	Ball State	7-0
20	18	LSU	5-1	L@Florida51-21
21	19	Tulsa	6-0
7	20	Brigham Young	6-1	L@TCU32-7
12	21	Missouri	5-2	L OklahomaSt28-23;L@Texas56-31
17	22	Kansas	5-2	L@USF37-34;L@Oklahoma45-31
--	23	Georgia Tech	6-1	L@VTech20-17;w@BostonColl19-16
--	24	Boston College	5-1	L GTech19-16;wVTech28-23
--	25	Minnesota	6-1	L@OhioSt34-21
		out:
22	--	Virginia Tech	5-2	L=EC27-22;L@BC28-23;wGT20-17;w@NC20-17
23	--	North Carolina	5-2	L@Virg16-13ot;L VTech20-17
24	--	California	4-2	L@Mary35-27;L@Ariz42-27;wMichSt38-31
25	--	Michigan State	6-2	L@Cal38-31;L OSU45-7

Ohio State finally showed some life on offense, blitzing ex-#25 Michigan State 45-7 (with the help of the defense on two late fumble returns for TDs). This, along with their earlier win over new #25 Minnesota, allows them to move up for the first time in weeks, jumping #12 Florida. Mississippi fell to a losing record, slightly diminishing the idle Gators, but they still move up a spot. #13 Pittsburgh, who also lost to a losing team, and #14 South Florida both move up two spots.

Texas Christian, whom everyone is referring to as TCU these days (it used to be about 50/50), leaps into the rankings at #15 due to their 32-7 Thursday-night dismantling of former top ten BYU, who is hardly ever called Brigham Young any more. The Cougars drop to #20 as their formerly impressive win over UCLA doesn't look as hot. TCU's strong résumé—a top 25 win and loss to a top ten team—compares favorably even to Georgia, so they have room to advance if they keep winning, and could really leap if they beat Utah in November. Behind them is another team that lost to Oklahoma— #16 Cincinnati—and undefeated Ball State, both of whom were idle. LSU and Tulsa follow; the Tigers still rank low in power ratings, but Tulsa made a bit of a surge with their 77-35 win over UTEP. The Golden Hurricane were tied 28-28 in the first quarter but scored six touchdowns in the next 30 minutes.

The Big Twelve's Missouri and Kansas both suffer their second loss and drop to #21 and #22. Both teams' losses are to top 25 foes, so they stay in the rankings, unlike Virginia Tech, North Carolina, California, and Michigan State. Replacing them are Boston College, who beat the Hokies; Georgia Tech, who formerly lost to the Hokies but also defeated Boston College and now stands 6-1; and Minnesota, whose only loss is to Ohio State.

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - week 7: Texas on top

Why not Alabama? That's the question I figured to be getting, though it looks like the national polls agree with Texas at the top. The bottom line is that if Texas stays undefeated the next three weeks they had better be ranked #1, as they face Missouri, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech after beating previous #1 Oklahoma on neutral ground. The Tide will have to hope for a Longhorn mistake. If Texas finishes the year unscathed, they deserve #1 unanimously. Alabama was idle this week.

#3 Penn State jumped up from #7 due to the rash of losses above them and impressively beating Wisconsin. They leapt over #4 Texas Tech, who needed overtime to beat Nebraska in Lubbock. The Red Raiders started the year #5 in my rankings and have moved up only one spot despite going undefeated and every team above them losing. Soon they'll face some top 25 competition, at which point they'll prove their mettle or fall to a more appropriate ranking.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 7 (10-12-2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Big wins/losses
6	1.	Texas	6-0	w=Oklahoma45-35
2	2.	Alabama	6-0	w@Georgia41-30
7	3.	Penn State	7-0
4	4.	Texas Tech	6-0
20	5.	Oklahoma State	6-0	w@Missouri28-23
1	6.	Oklahoma	5-1	L=Texas45-35;wCincy52-26
8	7.	Brigham Young	6-0
9	8.	Southern Cal	4-1	L@OreSt27-21;wOhioSt35-3
10	9.	Georgia	5-1	L Alabama41-30
13	10.	Utah	7-0
11	11.	Boise State	5-0
3	12.	Missouri	5-1	L OklahomaSt28-23
19	13.	Florida	5-1	L OleMiss31-30; wLSU51-21
14	14.	Ohio State	6-1	L@USC35-3
15	15.	Pittsburgh	4-1	L BowlGr27-17;w@USF26-21
16	16.	South Florida	5-1	L Pitt26-21;wKansas37-34
17	17.	Kansas	5-1	L@USF37-34
18	18.	Cincinnati	5-1	L@Oklahoma52-26
23	19.	Ball State	7-0
5	20.	LSU	4-1	L@Florida51-21
22	21.	Tulsa	6-0
24	22.	Virginia Tech	5-1	L=ECar27-22;w@UNC20-17
25	23.	North Carolina	5-1	L VTech20-17
	24.	California	4-1	L@Mary35-27;wMichSt38-31
	25.	Michigan State	6-1	L@Cal38-31;w@Nwest37-20
		dropped out:
21	-	Northwestern	5-1	L MichSt37-20
12	-	Vanderbilt	5-1	L@MissSt17-14

Oklahoma State was the other big winner in the Big Twelve sweepstakes, leaping to #5 after upsetting Missouri 28-23. Just behind them is Oklahoma; the Sooners are the only team with an excuseable loss that has defeated another top 25 team. BYU, USC, and Georgia slid up a notch each; at #10 Utah leapt Boise State, whose win over Oregon doesn't carry the weight it did at the time. Utah still has TCU and #7 BYU on the schedule, and as I mentioned last week should probably be ahead of USC using strict accounting.

Missouri is #12 on the way down, meeting #13 Florida on the way up. Missouri has a chance to rebound with a win over #1 Texas next week. I don't think Florida's win over LSU shows their quality more than LSU's deficiencies, which is why the latter fell all the way to #20. Remember, LSU's claim to fame this year is barely edging Auburn. 

The teams from 14 to 18 all stayed put. Ohio State hasn't played a good game all year on offense, and until they do I'm not budging them. Pittsburgh and South Florida were idle. Kansas defeated Colorado but is stuck behind USF, and Cincinnati beat Rutgers but then, who hasn't?

At 7-0, Ball State jumps to #19, moving ahead of #21 Tulsa, who moves up only a spot after struggling with SMU. Idle Virginia Tech is #22, ahead of North Carolina, who staved off Notre Dame's attempt to join the top 25. The much-improved Irish have a pretty easy schedule in the 2nd half of the year and still have a decent chance to be in the rankings before their game with USC.

Michigan State, who previously beat Notre Dame much more easily than the Tar Heels, defeated ex-#21 Northwestern to earn a spot. This also ushered idle California into the top 25, as they beat the Spartans in week 1.

Vanderbilt drops out after taking a hit against Mississippi State. No other team in the top 25 has lost to a team with a losing record, and the Commodores' wins over South Carolina and especially Auburn don't seem impressive any more. With only one loss and several ranked teams on the schedule—starting with Georgia next week—they'll have ample opportunity to fight their way back in.

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - week 6

Not as many upsets this week; in fact, only three in the top 25. The biggest happened on Thursday when Pitt beat #3 South Florida and forced me to violate my ranking guidelines for the first time this season. More on that below. The other top teams played exceptionally well, starting with #1 Oklahoma, who destroyed a good Baylor team 49-17.

Lou Holtz and other talking heads were down on #2 Alabama after they eeked out a win over previous #22 Kentucky. Since the Wildcats were an "unranked" team according to AP and the coaches, some people didn't think the Tide did well. I disagree; just getting the win in such a potential letdown game solidifies their high ranking. After that, pretty much every team down the line had an impressive performance. #3 Missouri crushed Nebraska 52-17; #4 Texas Tech looked like a top ten team for the first time this year, beating Kansas State on the road 58-28; #6 Texas beat Colorado in another potential trap game, 38-14; #7 Penn State handled Purdue in West Lafayette; #8 BYU beat pathetic Utah State on the road 34-14; and #9 USC recovered from a slow start to dominate #19 Oregon 44-10. USC is of course the hardest team to rank logically, as they now have two of the most impressive wins of the year to go with their bizarre loss to 2-3 Oregon State.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 6 (10-05-2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Big wins/losses
1	1.	Oklahoma	5-0	wCincinnati52-26
2	2.	Alabama	6-0	w@Georgia41-30;wKentucky17-14
4	3.	Missouri	5-0
5	4.	Texas Tech	5-0
6	5.	LSU	4-0	w@Auburn26-21
7	6.	Texas	5-0
8	7.	Penn State	6-0
9	8.	Brigham Young	5-0
10	9.	Southern Cal	3-1	L@OreSt27-21;wOSU35-3;wOre44-10
12	10.	Georgia	4-1	L Alabama41-30
13	11.	Boise State	4-0	w@Oregon37-32
16	12.	Vanderbilt	5-0	wAuburn14-13
17	13.	Utah	6-0
14	14.	Ohio State	5-1	L@USC35-3
	15.	Pittsburgh	4-1	L BowlingGreen27-17;w@USF26-21
3	16.	South Florida	5-1	L Pitt26-21;wKansas37-34
11	17.	Kansas	4-1	L@USF37-34
20	18.	Cincinnati	4-1	L@Oklahoma52-26
21	19.	Florida	4-1	L Mississippi31-30
23	20.	Oklahoma State	5-0
24	21.	Northwestern	5-0
25t	22.	Tulsa	5-0
25t	23.	Ball State	6-0
	24.	Virginia Tech	4-1	L=ECarolina27-22;w@UNC20-17
	25.	North Carolina	4-1	L VTech20-17;wUConn38-12
		dropped out:
15	-	Auburn	4-2	L LSU26-21;L@Vandy14-13
22	-	Kentucky	4-1	L@Alabama17-14
19	-	Oregon	4-2	L BoiseSt37-32;L@USC44-10
18	-	Connecticut	5-1	L@UNC38-12

South Florida, #3 last week, created a mess by losing to Pitt. Combined with the Bulls' previous win over #11 Kansas, it created a 'squeeze' in my rankings and forced me to violate my two basic guidelines I use when making the rakings, which are:

1) Teams don't fall in the rankings unless they lose, and

2) When teams have a similar record, head-to-head competion determines order.

Since 1-loss Pittsburgh had to be ahead of USF, and USF had to be ahead of Kansas, either I had to unfairly move several teams down a notch, or unfairly move Kansas down several notches. Luckily the Jayhawks made the decision easy for me by almost losing to Iowa State, barely winning 35-33 after being down 20-0 at the half. I dropped Kansas from #11 to #17, moving Pitt in at a more reasonable #15 (still overrated considering their loss to 2-3 Bowling Green) and dropping South Florida all the way to #16. 

The second tier of still-undefeated teams fills the #11 through #13 slots. Boise State, whose win over Oregon was much less impressive than USC's, remains just outside the top ten and may be passed by the teams behind them: #12 Vanderbilt, who will advance quickly if they can keep winning in their SEC schedule, and #13 Utah, who jump four spots from #17 and should technically be ahead of USC since they are undefeated and beat Oregon State, the team that beat the Trojans. That's another of my guidelines but is a lot looser than the others. Still, if Utah goes undefeated I'll eventually rank them ahead of Southern Cal.

The third tier of undefeated teams follows #18 Cincinnati and #19 Florida. The three that played last week all did very well, and they remain in the order of their strength of schedule. That is to say, if #20 Oklahoma State goes undefeated, they will advance the furthest, and possibly be #1. #21 Northwestern has a bit less upside but would still beat some good Big Ten teams. #22 Tulsa may or may not make the top ten if undefeated, and #23 Ball State has an even easier slate.

Last week there were ZERO ACC teams in my top 25, but Virginia Tech and North Carolina move in this week. The Tar Heels clubbed Connecticut 38-12, and Virginia Tech beat UNC a few weeks ago and have been impressive since their week 1 debacle vs. East Carolina.

Four teams drop out, but none of them have losses to unranked teams so all could be back. Auburn and Oregon both have two losses, the Tigers to #5 and #12, the Ducks to #9 and #11. Kentucky barely lost to the #2 team, while UConn got smoked by the new #25.

Next week sees a lot of big top 25 matchups, including:

• #1 Oklahoma vs. #6 Texas
• #3 Missouri vs. #20 Oklahoma State
• #5 LSU vs. #19 Florida

as well as two games where prominent 1-loss teams could break into the top 25:

• #21 Northwestern vs. Michigan State (5-1)
• #25 North Carolina vs. Notre Dame (4-1)

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - week 5

Here we go again. Major upsets shook up the rankings this week, though the AP and coaches polls took a bigger hit, with their #1, #3, and #4 teams losing. We were getting some flack for not having USC #1, but are somewhat vindicated with the Trojan's loss, and for already placing Oklahoma #1 the last two weeks. Those kudos are offset by our pre-season #1 and #2 teams (Ohio State and Florida) having suffered embarrasing losses this year.

So here's what happened. Oklahoma stays #1 after drubbing a good TCU team 35-10. Then it gets a bit more complicated. Previous #2 Florida and #3 Southern Cal lost, but ex-#4 South Florida has had some really bad games and doesn't deserve to be #2, nor does Texas Tech, and Missouri was idle. It makes sense to have an SEC team in the top two along with a Big Twelve team, so Alabama, who led Georgia 31-0 at the half on the road, and clobbered Clemson 34-10 at a neutral site, leaps from #11 all the way to #2. South Florida follows at #3 as they do have the Kansas win under their belt, and Missouri jumps Texas Tech to take the #4 spot. The Tigers have been much more consistent than the Red Raiders.

LSU didn't look great Saturday, but they have a key road win over Auburn and move up two spots to #6. Texas did look great Saturday and jumps to #7, while Penn State got the job done against Illinois and moves to #8.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 5 (9-28-2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Big wins/losses
1	1.	Oklahoma	4-0	wCincinnati52-26
11	2.	Alabama	5-0	w@GA41-30;w=Clem34-10
4	3.	South Florida	5-0	wKansas37-34
6	4.	Missouri	4-0
5	5.	Texas Tech	4-0
8	6.	LSU	4-0	w@Auburn26-21
9	7.	Texas	4-0
10	8.	Penn State	5-0
12	9.	Brigham Young	4-0
3	10.	Southern Cal	2-1	L@OreSt27-21;wOSU35-3
13	11.	Kansas	3-1	L@USF37-34
7	12.	Georgia	4-1	L Alabama41-30
16	13.	Boise State	3-0	w@Oregon37-32
14	14.	Ohio State	4-1	L@USC35-3
15	15.	Auburn	4-1	L LSU26-21
17	16.	Vanderbilt	4-0
18	17.	Utah	5-0	wUNLV42-21
19	18.	Connecticut	5-0
22	19.	Oregon	4-1	L BoiseSt37-32
20	20.	Cincinnati	3-1	L@Oklahoma52-26
2	21.	Florida	3-1	L Mississippi31-30
	22.	Kentucky	4-0
	23.	Oklahoma State	4-0
	24.	Northwestern	5-0
	25t	Tulsa	4-0
	25t	Ball State	5-0
		out:
25	-	Wake Forest	3-1	L Navy24-17
23	-	Colorado	3-1	L@FSU39-21
21	-	Clemson	3-2	L=Ala 34-10;L Mary20-17
24	-	UNLV	3-2	L@Utah42-21;L Nev49-27

The teams that lost create some trouble. Georgia came back to make the game semi-respectable and drops from 7 to 12. USC probably deserved to fall further, but they have one of the best wins of the year over #14 Ohio State. The Trojans' loss essentially freezes the Buckeyes at #14 for the time being, and USC only falls to #10. This allows idle Brigham Young to move up to #9 and two other idle teams, #11 Kansas and #13 Boise State, get pushed up to position the losers in their appropriate spots. Auburn blew their chance to advance by struggling with Tennessee and remains #15.

Undefeated Vanderbilt and Utah move up a spot each, as does Connecticut, who beat Louisville in their third close win. #19 is Oregon, and they jump #20 Cincinnati; the Bearcats narrowly defeated Akron on the road 17-15.

Florida falls the farthest of any team this week, from #2 all the way to #21. They lost to an unranked team, and unlike USC, they have no wins over top 25 teams to cushion their fall. They also got beat at home.

Five new teams enter the top 25 (or top 26, since two are tied for the final spot). These consist of all the remaining undefeated teams that haven't been ranked yet this year. Conveniently, enough teams lost and fell out to open enough spaces. #22 Kentucky has played well this year and is 4-0, along with #23 Oklahoma State who throttled Troy to get revenge for last season's loss. #24 Northwestern beat Iowa in Iowa City to go 5-0, and even their road win over Duke looks pretty good now. Tied at #25 are two non-BCS undefeated teams who will have fewer tough games over the course of the season: Tulsa and Ball State. But both are playing like legit ranked teams so far.

Dropping out: Wake Forest lost embarrasingly to Navy. This is enough to kick them out of the top 25, but it had the added effect of making sure Colorado fell out too, as the Buffs lost to Florida State, who lost last week to the Demon Deacons. Clemson and UNLV each suffered their second loss of the year.

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - week 4

The top 10 remains largely the same this week. #1 Oklahoma and #3 USC didn't play, while #2 Florida took care of business against Tennessee, 30-6. #4 South Florida joins #5 Texas Tech as the most likely overrated teams in my rankings, as they struggled with bottom-of-the-barrel Florida International, beating them 17-9. They do have the win over Kansas, so we'll forgive the FIU game (as well as the UCF overtime game) for now. As for the Red Raiders, they are at least are starting to dominate the foes on their thus-far pansy schedule, beating I-AA Massachusetts 56-14.

Missouri holds at #6 once again. #7 Georgia handled ex-#25 Arizona State pretty easily, 27-10, while fellow SEC mate LSU beat Auburn on the road. Neither move up right now, but LSU's win should carry some weight as Auburn only fell from #13 to #15, while both of Georgia's recent foes were knocked out of the top 25. Texas and Penn State have both been solid all year, though facing little opposition, and slide into the #9 and #10 slots. Former #9 Oregon fell to #22 after losing at home to Boise State, 37-32.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 4 (9-21-2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Big wins/losses
1	1.	Oklahoma	3-0	wCin52-26
2	2.	Florida	3-0
3	3.	Southern Cal	2-0	wOSU35-3
4	4.	South Florida	4-0	wKU37-34
5	5.	Texas Tech	4-0
6	6.	Missouri	4-0
7	7.	Georgia	4-0	w@ASU27-10
8	8.	LSU	3-0	w@Aub26-21
10	9.	Texas	3-0
11	10.	Penn State	4-0
12	11.	Alabama	4-0	w=Clem34-10
15	12.	Brigham Young	4-0
14	13.	Kansas	3-1	L@USF37-34
16	14.	Ohio State	3-1	L@USC35-3
13	15.	Auburn	3-1	L LSU26-21
	16.	Boise State	3-0	w@Oregon37-32
18	17.	Vanderbilt	4-0
20	18.	Utah	4-0	wUNLV42-21
19	19.	Connecticut	4-0
21	20.	Cincinnati	2-1	L@OK52-26
22	21.	Clemson	3-1	L=Ala 34-10
9	22.	Oregon	3-1	L BoiseSt37-32
	23.	Colorado	3-0	wWVA17-14ot
24	24.	UNLV	3-1	L@Utah42-21;w@ASU23-20ot
	25.	Wake Forest	3-0
		out:
17	-	East Carolina	3-1	L@NCst30-23ot;wWVA24-3
25	-	Arizona St	2-2	L UNLV23-20ot;L GA27-10
23	-	West Virginia	1-2	L@ECar24-3;L@Col17-14ot

Alabama moves up another spot to #11 after dominating Arkansas, though it looks more like the Razorbacks are really bad than the Tide necessarily great. Brigham Young had another shutout and leaps three spots to #12, while #13 Kansas and #14 Ohio State had some struggles on Saturday but got the job done.

Boise State is the big debut in the rankings at #16. Oregon was by far the toughest hurdle on their schedule. Another upstart, Vanderbilt, is 4-0 and moves up a spot to #17. #18 Utah topped previously unbeaten Air Force and jumps Connecticut, who struggled mightily at home with Baylor. Cincinnati rounds out the top 20, with Clemson just behind.

Colorado replaces West Virginia at #23, beating them by a field goal to remain unbeaten. Wake Forest also debuts this week after defeating Florida State for the right to the #25 slot.

UNLV enjoys a second week in the top 25, remaining at #24 after narrowly escaping with a win in overtime against Iowa State. Like I said last week, until it's proven they're not a top 25 team they'll stay in. Their only loss is to #18 Utah, and their schedule going forward suggests they could remain for a few more weeks until having to prove it against BYU. The team they beat to get in, Arizona State, falls out this week, so they have no margin for error.

In addition to ASU, East Carolina drops out after losing to North Carolina State. It didn't help them that West Virginia, their marquee win, suffered a second loss and fell out as well. Their early schedule turned out to be softer than expected, as Virginia Tech is also a couple of field goals away from 1-3.

There are still nine unranked undefeated teams. Three are from the Big Ten including Wisconsin, who is in the top 10 in other polls, and even in my power rating. They play Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State over the next three weeks. Nebraska and Oklahoma State from the Big 12 and Kentucky from the SEC will also get their opportunities to prove themselves, and TCU plays Oklahoma this coming weekend. The two who will have to wait the longest to be ranked are Tulsa (C-USA) and Ball State (MAC), who don't play a difficult schedule, but they'll be ranked eventually if they keep winning, especially if they do so convincingly.

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - week 3: Oklahoma #1, USC #3

The big game is over, the smoke has cleared, and there is a new number one. But although USC crushed Ohio State 35-3, I didn't move them quite up to #1. They clearly demonstrated that they belong among the very top teams, but I was just as disappointed in Ohio State's performance as I was impressed by USC. So Oklahoma has the top spot for now; the Sooners crushed a Washington team that gave BYU fits. I think that any team that emerges from the SEC or Big Twelve undefeated—conference championship and all—deserves a top ranking more than a Pac-10 team that does the same. Thus idle Florida remains 2nd until proven otherwise, Southern Cal launches to #3, and South Florida of the Big East (another questionable conference) remains fourth. USF beat Kansas on Friday night, but their 3-point home win was far less impressive than USC's 31-point slaughter. Still, they hold solidly at #4, far ahead of #5 Texas Tech, who did better against SMU but has not looked like a top five team.

Missouri holds at #6 after an easy win, while Georgia, who almost lost to South Carolina, moves up a notch to #7, as the Gamecocks were still a top 25 team last week. #8 LSU leapfrogs Oregon; although they've only beaten a I-AA team and North Texas, they beat Appalachian State soundly and the Ducks very nearly lost to Purdue. Though the Boilermakers may prove to be a good team, Oregon holds at #9 for now. Idle Texas moves up to #10, so there are still four Big Twelve teams in the top ten.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 3 (9/14/2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Big wins/losses
3	1.	Oklahoma	3-0	wCincinnati 52-26
2	2.	Florida	2-0
12	3.	Southern Cal	2-0	wOhioState 35-3
4	4.	South Florida	3-0	wKansas 37-34
5	5.	Texas Tech	3-0
6	6.	Missouri	3-0
8	7.	Georgia	3-0	w@SCarolina 14-7
10	8.	LSU	2-0
9	9.	Oregon	3-0
11	10.	Texas	2-0
14	11.	Penn State	3-0
15	12.	Alabama	3-0	w=Clemson 34-10
13	13.	Auburn	3-0
7	14.	Kansas	2-1	L@USF 37-34
21	15.	Brigham Young	3-0	wUCLA 59-0
1	16.	Ohio State	2-1	L@USC 35-3
17	17.	East Carolina	3-0	wWVirginia 24-3
18	18.	Vanderbilt	3-0	wSCarolina 24-17
19	19.	Connecticut	3-0
20	20.	Utah	3-0	wUNLV 42-21
23	21.	Cincinnati	1-1	L@Oklahoma 52-26
24	22.	Clemson	2-1	L=Alabama 34-10
25t	23.	West Virginia	1-1	L@ECarolina 24-3
--	24.	UNLV	2-1	L@Utah42-21;w@ASU23-20ot
16	25.	Arizona St	2-1	L UNLV 23-20ot
		out:
22	--	UCLA	1-1	L@BYU 59-0
25t	--	South Carolina	1-2	L@Vandy24-17;L GA14-7

Penn State and Alabama each jump three spots to #11 and #12. The Nittany Lions have notched solid wins over poor foes, while Alabama is 3-0 and had the win over Clemson under its belt. Auburn remains stuck at #13 after beating Mississippi State just 3-2.

Kansas and Ohio State fell out of the top ten, the latter falling much farther, all the way from #1 to #16. Their offense looked hopeless with Beanie Wells' absence, and the rushing defense didn't do very well either. Overall they proved the skeptics correct with yet another crushing loss to a top team. BYU, on the other hand, showed how good they can be by blasting former #22 UCLA 59-0; they jump from #21 to #15. The Jayhawks almost beat USF on the road and remains in position to move back up if they can score some quality Big 12 wins.

East Carolina, Vanderbilt, UConn, and Utah held steady in the next four spots. The Pirates had to make a comeback against lowly Tulane, but they were due for a letdown and have a healthy résumé; close calls are ultimately excused, as long as you win. Vandy's marquee win fades away as South Carolina exits the rankings, but the Commodores will remain as long as they keep winning. Connecticut holds at #19, with this week's win over Virginia offsetting their poor Temple performance last week. Former losers Cincinnati, Clemson, and West Virginia each slide up a few notches.

Arizona State's loss to UNLV was a huge upset, but I kept the Sun Devils at #25; they play Georgia next weekend, so either they will prove they still belong or they'll drop out. This means that UNLV has to move in at #24. Despite their 2-10 record last year, I felt they deserve a moment in the spotlight for their gutsy road victory. Also, their only loss is to #20 Utah, so there's nothing in their record so far that proves they aren't a top 25 team. As long as they win, they'll stay in—they face BYU in a few weeks, so they'll have to prove it just like ASU.

UCLA and South Carolina fall out this week; the Bruins after being destroyed 59-0, and South Carolina after suffering their 2nd loss.

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - week 2

The top teams didn't all look like top teams last weekend. For their sake I hope #1 Ohio State was looking ahead to USC when they struggled to beat Ohio. #2 Florida doesn't have that excuse because the Miami game was one they were looking forward to. Beating the Hurricanes 26-3 is nothing to be ashamed of, but their offense didn't look overpowering. #3 Oklahoma had the best win of the weekend, handling Cincinnati 52-26, while #4 South Florida barely got past rival UCF in overtime. Texas Tech had another sketchy performance, beating Nevada 35-19, but Missouri won easily over a I-AA foe.

The first change in the top ten this year occurs as West Virginia was drubbed by East Carolina 24-3. So much for the Mountaineers' juggernaut offense; a couple of times every year, they are stopped dead in their tracks, and this was one of those times. They fall from #7 to #25. Kansas, Georgia, and Oregon all played well and move up a spot, while #10 LSU's game was postponed.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 2 (9-07-2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Big wins/losses
1	1.	Ohio State	2-0
2	2.	Florida	2-0
3	3.	Oklahoma	2-0	wCin52-26
4	4.	South Florida	2-0
5	5.	Texas Tech	2-0
6	6.	Missouri	2-0
8	7.	Kansas	2-0
9	8.	Georgia	2-0
10	9.	Oregon	2-0
11	10.	LSU	1-0
12	11.	Texas	2-0
13	12.	Southern Cal	1-0
15	13.	Auburn	2-0
16	14.	Penn State	2-0
17	15.	Alabama	2-0	w=Clem 34-10
18	16.	Arizona St	2-0
--	17.	East Carolina	2-0	wWVA24-3
--	18.	Vanderbilt	2-0	wSCaro24-17
19	19.	Connecticut	2-0
22	20.	Utah	2-0
21	21.	Brigham Young	2-0
23	22.	UCLA	1-0
20	23.	Cincinnati	1-1	L@OK52-26
24	24.	Clemson	1-1	L=Ala 34-10
7	25t	West Virginia	1-1	L@ECar24-3
14	25t	South Carolina	1-1	L@Vandy24-17
		out:
25	--	Maryland	1-1	L@MTenn24-14

Texas and USC move up to #11 and #12. The Trojans will have an opportunity to make a giant leap next week after facing Ohio State. If they win I'll have them anywhere from #1 to #4 depending on how the game goes and how other teams fare, while a loss wouldn't drop them much if at all.

South Carolina was the week's other major loser, falling to Vanderbilt 24-17. I give them one more chance to prove themselves against Georgia this week. Auburn, Penn State, Alabama, and Arizona State slide up to fill the empty slots, with East Carolina and the Commodores debuting at #17 and #18.

Connecticut holds at #19 after needing overtime to beat Temple. The Owls are a much-improved team, no doubt, but the Huskies shouldn't have let it be that close if they're really a top 25 team. Rotten weather was a big factor in evening the game out.

#20 Utah jumps over #21 BYU, becoming the Mountain West's top team in the rankings. The Cougars struggled with Washington 28-27, and the game should have gone into overtime but Jake Locker "celebrated excessively." Utah's victory over Michigan in week one is a superior BCS conference win, though at this point we can't really say Michigan is all that much better than Washington. Idle UCLA gains a spot to #22 and takes on BYU this Saturday.

Cincinnati falls just to #23 for the loss to the Sooners, which was a true road game and less of a hit than #24 Clemson's loss to Alabama. Ex-#25 Maryland lost to Middle Tennessee State and falls out of the rankings; their next game is against Cal, who beat Washington State 66-3.

Next week sees matchups between #1 Ohio State and #12 USC; #4 USF and #7 Kansas; #8 Georgia and #25 South Carolina; and #21 BYU and #22 UCLA, so there will certainly be some shakeups to come.

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - week 1

The first week of college football didn't hold that many surprises, at least not in the top 25. Scratch that—there were a few more surprises in the AP and USA top 25, where Virginia Tech fell and Michigan got beat by unranked Utah—but those losing teams weren't in the SportsRatings pre-season top 25. Only #11 Clemson and #20 Tennessee lost this week, meaning the entire top 10 remains unchanged.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 1 (9-02-2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Big wins/losses
1	1.	Ohio State	1-0
2	2.	Florida	1-0
3	3.	Oklahoma	1-0
4	4.	South Florida	1-0
5	5.	Texas Tech	1-0
6	6.	Missouri	1-0
7	7.	West Virginia	1-0
8	8.	Kansas	1-0
9	9.	Georgia	1-0
10	10.	Oregon	1-0
12	11.	LSU	1-0
13	12.	Texas	1-0
15	13.	Southern Cal	1-0
14	14.	South Carolina	1-0
16	15.	Auburn	1-0
17	16.	Penn State	1-0
23	17.	Alabama	1-0	w=Clem 34-10
18	18.	Arizona St	1-0
19	19.	Connecticut	1-0
21	20.	Cincinnati	1-0
22	21.	Brigham Young	1-0
24	22.	Utah	1-0
--	23.	UCLA	1-0	w Tenn 27-24ot
11	24.	Clemson	0-1	L=Ala 34-10
25	25.	Maryland	1-0
		out:
20	--	Tennessee	0-1	L@UCLA 27-24ot

And with good reason. The top teams all won convincingly, some more than others. In particular, the top four teams—Ohio State, Florida, Oklahoma, and South Florida—all put up great performances, winning by an astonishing 212-19. The rest of the top ten wasn't quite as strong; in particular, Texas Tech didn't look like a top five team on defense but we'll give them the benefit of the doubt for now. The rest showed some flaws but were strong in winning.

Of course, the big loser was #11 Clemson, who falls to #24 after getting trounced by Alabama. LSU and Texas both played great and move up to #11 and #12. Southern Cal looked particularly strong in beating Virginia 52-7 and jumps two spots, leaping the other USC, #14 South Carolina, who had a sputtering start against North Carolina State but pitched a shutout.

#15 Auburn also shut out their opponent (Louisiana Monroe, who beat Alabama last season), and #16 Penn State scored a big win over a I-AA school. Both moved up a notch. The Crimson Tide were the big mover, up from #23 to #17. They left Arizona State and Connecticut, both of whom had less impressive wins, unchanged at #18 and #19.

Cincinnati and Brigham Young were solid and move up a notch, and Utah moves up two spots for their road victory against Michigan. UCLA, who beat Tennessee in overtime on Labor Day, enters the rankings at #23, replacing the Volunteers.

The top 25 is rounded out by Clemson at #24 and Maryland, 14-7 winners over I-AA power Delaware, unchanged at #25.

SportsRatings College Football final 2007 top 25

This is the toughest top 25 to sort out in ages. First off, the top eight or so teams can be ordered in any number of ways. Almost all of them finished with 2 losses, and have a loss or more to non-top 25 teams or even teams with losing records. Add to that the ridiculous number of teams that finished with four losses and the bottom half of the list can be rearranged to anyone's preference.

I put LSU #1 for a lot of reasons. Although I don't like a 2-loss champion, their losses were at least overtime losses...so they should remain the exception. 2-loss teams should not end up #1 as a rule. Their 5 wins over top 25 foes soften the blow.

This is when it gets tough. I made my list from the bottom up, narrowing it to 25 and then evaluating the top spots. And there's no reason not to have Ohio State #2. Their only losses are to top 25 teams, and they've beaten three teams on the list. That's because the Big Ten inched a couple of teams in at the end to have 5 total, same as the SEC, though much lower on average. I could just as easily have put Ohio State #8, but in terms of losses they're cleaner than Georgia and especially USC.

West Virginia beat Oklahoma, who beat Missouri twice, who beat Kansas who beat Virginia Tech. Although West Virginia has a messy loss résumé, Missouri a better record than Oklahoma, Kansas a better record than Missouri, the head-to-head competition wins out. And although USC beat Illinois while Illinois beat Ohio State, this is a secondary comparison not a primary one. Again, there's no perfect logic system for this nutty year.

Hawai'i rounds out my top ten because there just aren't enough teams with good records to put in front of them. This year, any 1-loss team deserves a decent ranking, though in terms of quality the Warriors are borderline top 25 at best. They only lost to the #3 team, after all.

lw   #  Team            rec important games(losses; wins over top 25)
3    1. LSU            12-2 L@KY43-37ot;L Ark50-48ot
                            wVT48-7,wOSU38-24,wFLA28-24,wAub30-24,w=TN21-14
1    2. Ohio State     11-2 L Ill28-21,L@LSU38-24
                            wWis38-17,w@Mich14-3,wPennSt37-17
8    3. Georgia        11-2 L SC16-12,L@Tenn35-14
                            w=Hawaii41-10,wAub45-20,wFLA42-30,wTroy44-34
9    4. West Virginia  11-2 L Pitt13-9,L@SoFLA21-13
                            w=Oklahoma48-28,w@Cincy28-23,wUConn66-21
4    5. Oklahoma       11-3 L@Col27-24,L@TTech34-27,L=WVA48-28
                            wTex28-21,wMiz41-31,w=Miz38-17,w@Tulsa61-21
6    6. Missouri       11-2 L@OK41-31,L=OK38-17
                            w=Ill40-34,w=KU36-28,wTTech41-10
7    7. Kansas         12-1 L=Mizz36-28
                            w=VTech24-21
10   8. USC            11-2 L Stan24-23,L@Ore24-17
                            w@ASU44-24,wIll49-17,wOreSt24-3
5    9. Virginia Tech  11-3 L@LSU48-7,L BC14-10,L=Kansas24-21
                            w=BC30-16,w@Clem41-23,w@Virg33-21
2   10. Hawaii         12-1 L=Georgia41-10
                            wBoiseSt39-27,wFresno37-30
13  11. Boston College 10-3 L@Mary42-35,L FSU27-17,L=VT30-16
                            w@VT14-10,w@Clem20-17,wWake38-28
14  12. Cincinnati     10-3 L@Pitt24-17,L Lou28-24,L WVA28-23
                            wOreSt34-3,w@USF38-33,wConn27-3
21  13. Texas          10-3 L KSt41-21,L@TexAM38-30,L OK28-21
                            w=ASU52-34,wTTech59-43,wUCF35-32
19  14. BYU            11-2 L@UCLA27-17,L@Tulsa55-47
                            wAF31-6,wUtah17-10,wNewMex31-24
18  15. Arizona State   9-3 L@Ore35-23,L USC44-24,L=Tex52-34
                            W OreSt44-32
    16. Oregon State    9-4 L UCLA40-14,L@Cincy34-3,L@ASU44-32,L@USC24-3
                            W@Oregon38-31ot,wUtah24-7
    17. Oregon          9-4 L@AZ34-24,L@UCLA16-0,L Cal31-24,L OreSt38-31ot
                            wUSC24-17,wASU35-23,w@MI39-7,w=USF56-21,wFS52-21
    18. Auburn          9-4 L MissSt19-14,L USF26-23ot,L@LSU30-24,L@GA45-20
                            w@FLA20-17,wClemson23-20ot
    19. Michigan        9-4 L AppSt34-32,L Ore39-7,L@Wis37-21,L OSU14-3
                            wPennSt14-9,wIll27-17,w@FLA41-35
11  20. Florida         9-4 L Aub20-17,L@LSU28-24,L@GA42-30,L Mich41-35
                            w@Tenn59-20,wTroy59-31
12  21. Illinois        9-4 L@Iowa10-6,L Mich27-17,L=Miz40-34,L@USC49-17
                            wPennSt27-20,wWisc31-26,w@OSU28-21
    22. Penn State      9-4 L@MichSt27-20,L@Mich14-9,L@Ill27-20,L@OSU37-17
                            wWis38-7
    23. Tennessee       9-4 L@Cal45-31,L@Ala41-17,L@FLA59-20,L=LSU21-14
                            wGA35-14,wWisc21-17
    24. Texas Tech      9-4 L Col31-26,L@OkSt49-45,L@Mizz41-10,L@Tex59-43
                            wOK34-27,w=Virg31-28
22  25. Wisconsin       9-4 L@PSU38-7,L@Ill31-26,L@OSU38-17,L=Tenn24-17
                            wMich37-21

Others considered (prev. rank): Clemson(23), Virginia(15), Wake Forest, Connecticut(16), South Florida(17), Central Florida(24), Tulsa, Boise State(20), Air Force(25), Utah, New Mexico, Fresno State, Troy
 
key: Loss to ranked team
     Loss to unranked team
     Loss to team with losing record(pre-bowl)
     Win over ranked team
     Win over "others considered" team

After the rest of the 3-loss teams (Boston College, Cincinnati, Texas) and BYU, the attack of the four-loss teams begins. There are so few good candidates for the upper positions that I move Arizona State up three spots despite their loss to Texas. They've only lost to top 25 teams now, and they beat Oregon State and have a better record.

The "chain" of four-loss teams goes like this: Oregon State beat Oregon beat Michigan beat Florida beat Tennessee beat Wisconsin. And in-between, Auburn also beat Florida, Michigan beat Illinois who beat Penn State who also beat Wisconsin.

Texas Tech beat Virginia so they got one of the last spots; Virginia's résumé was dogged by two losses to losing teams. Since they beat Wake Forest and Connecticut, this effectively blocked them and South Florida, despite that latter's quality résumé. A 56-21 loss in your bowl game doesn't help, though. Clemson almost made it; they barely lost to Auburn, but Wisconsin only lost to top 25 teams, and beat one as well.

In all seven teams fell out and seven joined the final rankings. A fitting end to a wild year.

A glut of 9-4 teams

What to do with all the 9-4 teams? Is the question.

There is a glut of 9-4 teams that will be vying for positions in the top 25, and more are being created every day of the bowl season.

With Michigan beating Florida, Texas Tech defeating Virginia, and Tennessee edging Wisconsin, six more 4-loss teams were created today. No, seven: the loss by Illinois puts them at 9-4 as well.

In earlier bowls:

Utah beat Navy to finish 9-4.

Connecticut lost to Wake Forest. Both teams are now 9-4.

Auburn defeated Clemson. Both are 9-4.

South Florida and Oregon? Both 9-4.

Penn State beat Texas A&M to finish 9-4.

Central Florida lost, finishing 10-4.

Air Force lost to Cal, finishing 9-4.

New Mexico beat Nevada to finish 9-4.

Oregon State beat Maryland, and now they're 9-4.

Fresno State beat Georgia Tech to end the year 9-4.

Troy didn't play in a bowl game despite going 8-4.

It doesn't stop even after today: On January 6th, Tulsa plays Bowling Green in the GMAC bowl. One of them will finish with 4 losses.

That makes a total of 22 4-loss teams.  With 16 teams having 3 losses or fewer, that means a dozen or more 4-loss teams are likely to be left out of the top 25. Some omissions, such as teams who lost that weren't in the top 25 already, are obvious. But there will be some tough decisions for the final rankings.

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - week 14 - end of regular season

What a mess! For the second straight week the top two teams lose. This allows Ohio State to claim the top spot again, without playing for several weeks. I suspected the Buckeyes might get back into the title game via external upsets, much like Nebraska did in 2001, but didn't think they'd make it back to #1. Their thin résumé includes a loss to Illinois and a win over Wisconsin, but this year that's enough.

Hawaii isn't the 2nd best team in the country; maybe not even the 20th best. But they keep pulling off wins, including one over Boise State, and with no other undefeated teams, I'm sticking to my guidelines of rating them ahead of all 2-loss teams. I'm not sure what I'll do if Ohio State loses the title game, but if Hawaii can actually beat LSU or another top-notch team to go undefeated, I might put them #1. Their schedule is super-easy, they've had tons of close calls, but ultimately close calls and easy schedules are forgiven for going undefeated and winning big games. They almost lost to Pac-10 dog Washington last night, but USC only beat Wash 27-24, so like I said: close calls are forgiven.

LSU and Oklahoma are practically tied for third. Oklahoma lost to 6-6 Colorado, but LSU lost at home; LSU beat Virginia Tech 48-7, but Oklahoma beat Missouri twice. Ultimately I went with LSU because two triple overtime losses is extremely close to being undefeated, and week after week LSU has played tough opponents, with hardly a breather.

Likewise, Virginia Tech and Missouri are neck-and-neck for fifth place. Tech's only losses are to top 25 teams, and Missouri's are both to Oklahoma. Tech avenged their loss to Boston College, though. Missouri remains one spot ahead of Kansas, whom they beat. KU doesn't have a top 25 win, but if they beat a strong opponent in their bowl game I might consider them for the top spot if all hell breaks lose in other games.

Georgia, overrated in all other polls, moves up to 8th. They have one win over a team in my top 25, and haven't lost in several weeks. West Virginia and USC round out the top 10. The Mountaineers loss to Pitt is similar in embarrassment to USC's loss to Stanford; both lost at home to conference doormats they were heavily favored to beat, and both losses ultimately kept the losers out of the national title hunt. Their other loss was excuseable in both cases, and both had their strongest victory of the year a week ago. It would be fitting if they played in a bowl game.

It would be great if these ten teams could play in the BCS bowls, but both Missouri and Kansas can't make it since the Big 12 can't have three teams. Instead, Arizona State Illinois will fill the other spot.

lw   #  Team             rec important games(losses; wins over top 25)
3    1. Ohio State      11-1 L Ill28-21;wWis38-17
4    2. Hawaii          12-0 wBoiseSt39-27
6    3. LSU             11-2 L@KY43-37ot;L Ark50-48ot;wVT48-7,wFLA28-24,w=Tenn21-14
5    4. Oklahoma        11-2 L@Col27-24,L@TTech34-27;wTex28-21,wMiz41-31,w=Miz38-17
9    5. Virginia Tech   11-2 L@LSU48-7,L BC14-10;w@Clem41-23,w@Virg33-21,w=BC30-16
1    6. Missouri        11-2 L@OK41-31,L=OK38-17;w=Ill40-34,w=KU36-28,wTTech41-10
7    7. Kansas          11-1 L=Mizz36-28
10   8. Georgia         10-2 L SC16-12,L@Tenn35-14;wFLA42-30
2    9. West Virginia   10-2 L Pitt13-9,L@SoFLA21-13;w@Cincy28-23;wUConn66-21
11  10. USC             10-2 L Stan24-23,L@Ore24-17;w@ASU44-24
12  11. Florida          9-3 L Aub20-17,L@LSU28-24,L@GA42-30;wTenn59-20
18  12. Illinois         9-3 L@Iowa10-6,L Mich27-17,L=Miz40-34;wWisc31-26,w@OSU28-21
8   13. Boston College  10-3 L@Mary42-35,L FSU27-17,L=VT30-16;w@VT14-10,w@Clem20-17
14  14. Cincinnati       9-3 L@Pitt24-17,L Lou28-24,L WVA28-23;w@USF38-33,wConn27-3
15  15. Virginia         9-3 L@Wyoming23-3,L@NCSt29-24,L VT33-21;wConn17-16
16  16. Connecticut      9-3 L@Virg17-16,L@Cin27-3,L@WVa66-21;wUSF22-15
17  17. South Florida    9-3 L@Rut30-27,L@Conn22-15,L Cin38-33;wWVA21-13,wUCF64-12
19  18. Arizona State   10-2 L@Ore35-23,L USC44-24
23  19. BYU             10-2 L@UCLA27-17,L@Tulsa55-47;wAF31-6
20  20. Boise State     10-2 L@Wash24-10,L@Hawaii39-27
21  21. Texas            9-3 L KSt41-21,L@TexAM38-30,L OK28-21;wUCF35-32,wTTech59-43
22  22. Wisconsin        9-3 L@PSU38-7,L@Ill31-26,L@OSU38-17
24  23. Clemson          9-3 L@GT31-3,L VT41-23,L BC20-17
    24. Central Florida 10-3 L@ECar52-28,L@USF64-12,L@Tex35-32
    25. Air Force        9-3 L@Navy31-20,L@NMex34-31,L@BYU31-6

out:
25t     Texas Tech       8-4 L Col31-26,L@OkSt49-45,L@Mizz41-10,L@Tex59-43;wOK34-27
25t     Tennessee        9-4 L@Cal45-31,L@Ala41-17,L@FLA59-20,L=LSU21-14;wGA35-14
13      Oregon           8-4 L@AZ34-24,L Cal31-24,L@UCLA16-0,L OreSt38-31ot;
                             wUSC24-17,wASU35-23 
 
key: Loss to ranked team
     Loss to unranked team
     Loss to team with losing record
     Win over ranked team
     Win over ranked team who falls out this week

Florida slides up a spot to #11, even though their only top 25 win is going away...their losses were so close that they could have finished with 1 loss pretty easily. Illinois makes a leap over the 3-loss pack to #12. They have the only win over #1 Ohio State and one of their losses was a close game with Missouri. #13 Boston College has a near-identical report card: both have a loss to a 6-6 team (Maryland, Iowa); both lost 27-17 to decent teams (FSU, Michigan); both have another loss to a top ten team, and a win over a top ten team, plus an extra top 25 victory.

The next four teams stay in the same logical order, with #14 Cincinnati and #15 Virginia holding head-to-head victories over #16 Connecticut, and the Bearcats and Huskies both having a win over #17 South Florida. USF now has two top 25 victories with UCF entering the top 25, so they could make a good leap if they can break free from the teams that beat them head-to-head. Likewise UConn has only lost to top 25 teams.

Arizona State, with just two losses but no wins, is the two-loss equivalent of Kansas, though they've been less impressive overall. They'll get a chance to prove themselves in a BCS game, though. BYU jumps to #19, finishing the year 10-2 and now having a top 25 win that puts them ahead of Boise State, who still is dogged by their loss to Washington.

Texas is once again 21st and followed by Wisconsin and Clemson. I added Central Florida and Air Force to the top 25 in order to include all 3-loss teams. To do this I perhaps unfairly bumped Texas Tech (8-4) out, but they didn't necessarily have any reason to be included rather than other 4-loss teams, save their win over Oklahoma. Auburn and Arkansas also have 4 losses, a few big wins and few bad losses; but all of these teams will need a bowl win to jump in.

Tennessee also fell out. They have only a win over Georgia, and have losses to two 6-6 teams, Cal and Alabama that look worse each week. Ironically their loss to LSU was their most impressive game since the Georgia win, but they easily could have lost each of the two weeks prior, to Vanderbilt and Kentucky.

Oregon lost their third game in a row and drops out as well. I don't penalize the good teams they beat, USC and Arizona State, since Oregon was clearly a top 25 team when they won those games. Right now Oregon isn't playing close to top 25 football, but with those big wins on their schedule, if they can come up with a bowl win they'll probably be back in the rankings.

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - week 13

Changes at the top. With former #1 Kansas and #2 LSU losing, it's no surprise there's some rearrangement at the top. But instead of idle #3 Ohio State moving up, it's Missouri and West Virginia claiming the top spots.

The Missouri Tigers have just a road loss to Oklahoma plus three wins over top 25 teams, including the only win over Kansas. This puts them firmly ahead of #2 West Virginia, who plastered Connecticut 66-21 Saturday, and #3 Ohio State, whose only top 25 win is over Wisconsin.

Hawaii and Kansas make an interesting comparison. Both have fairly weak overall schedules, though Kansas' is essentially average for Division I-A while Hawaii's is very weak. Yet the Warriors now have a top 25 win to go with their undefeated record, while Kansas has nothing to show but the Missouri loss. With that, it's hard to justify putting Kansas ahead, unless of course you look at victory margins, in which case Hawaii would barely make the top 25. In this ranking, I emphasize key games, that is, losses, and wins over top 25 competition, while forgiving close calls. By that paradigm, Hawaii ranks ahead of the Jayhawks. They'll have to earn their high ranking in their bowl game, as it appears they're BCS bound.

I also slipped Oklahoma ahead of Kansas, by virtue of their earlier win over Missouri. I've edited slightly after the fact and moved LSU ahead of KU, too; LSU's schedule is too much harder than Kansas' to ignore just because of 2 overtime losses. The 2-loss teams are ordered using these considerations: Oklahoma and #6 LSU have similar profiles, but Oklahoma has the only win over #1 Missouri. LSU and #8 Boston College both have wins over Virginia Tech, with LSU's clearly being more convincing. Ninth-ranked Virginia Tech has only two losses, both to top ten teams, to go with its two wins over top 25 opposition, placing them clearly ahead of #10 Georgia, who doesn't have a disastrous loss to Stanford like #11 Southern Cal, who jumps nine spots after defeating Arizona State convincingly last Thursday for their first top 25 win.

lw   #  Team             rec important games(losses; wins over top 25)
5    1. Missouri        11-1 L@OK41-31;w=Ill40-34,wTTech41-10;w=KU36-28
4    2. West Virginia   10-1 L@SoFLA21-13;w@Cincy28-23;wUConn66-21
3    3. Ohio State      11-1 L Ill28-21;wWis38-17
7    4. Hawaii          11-0 wBoiseSt39-27
9    5. Oklahoma        10-2 L@Col27-24,L@TTech34-27;wTex28-21,wMiz41-31
2    6. LSU             10-2 L@KY43-37ot;L Ark50-48ot;wVT48-7,wFLA28-24
1    7. Kansas          11-1 L=Mizz36-28
10   8. Boston College  10-2 L@Mary42-35,L FSU27-17;w@VT14-10,w@Clem20-17
11   9. Virginia Tech   10-2 L@LSU48-7,L BC14-10;w@Clem41-23;w@Virg33-21
12  10. Georgia         10-2 L SC16-12,L@Tenn35-14;wFLA42-30
20  11. USC              9-2 L Stan24-23,L@Ore24-17;w@ASU44-24
18  12. Florida          9-3 L Aub20-17,L@LSU28-24,L@GA42-30;wTenn59-20
8   13. Oregon           8-3 L@Ariz34-24,L Cal31-24;L@UCLA16-0;wUSC24-17,wASU35-23
16  14. Cincinnati       9-3 L@Pitt24-17,L Lou28-24,L WVA28-23;w@USF38-33,wConn27-3
13  15. Virginia         9-3 L@Wyoming23-3,L@NCSt29-24,L VT33-21;wConn17-16
14  16. Connecticut      9-3 L@Virg17-16,L@Cin27-3,L@WVa66-21;wUSF22-15
17  17. South Florida    9-3 L@Rut30-27,L@Conn22-15,L Cin38-33;wWVA21-13
21  18. Illinois         9-3 L@Iowa10-6,L Mich27-17,L=Miz40-34;wWisc31-26,w@OSU28-21
6   19. Arizona State    9-2 L@Ore35-23,L USC44-24
15  20. Boise State     10-2 L@Wash24-10,L@Hawaii39-27
19  21. Texas            9-3 L KSt41-21,L@TexAM38-30,L OK28-21;wTTech59-43
22  22. Wisconsin        9-3 L@PSU38-7,L@Ill31-26,L@OSU38-17
23  23. BYU              9-2 L@UCLA27-17,L@Tulsa55-47
24  24. Clemson          9-3 L@GT31-3,L VT41-23,L BC20-17
25  25. Texas Tech       8-4 L Col31-26,L@OkSt49-45,L@Mizz41-10,L@Tex59-43;wOK34-27
    25t Tennessee        9-3 L@Cal45-31,L@Ala41-17,L@FLA59-20;wGA35-14
 
key: Loss to ranked team
     Loss to unranked team
     Loss to team with losing record
     Win over ranked team
     Win over ranked team who falls out this week

The pack from 12th through 19th is very close. Florida kicks off the three-loss teams; all of their losses are close and to good teams. They could easily have stayed at #18 where they were last week, though, depending on what arguments you make, but their win over FSU was dominant. #13 Oregon is a team that's very hard to fairly rank. With Dennis Dixon, they're a top five team; without him, they're top 25 at best, perhaps even average. I give them credit for their entire season here, ranking them just below the two 2-loss teams they beat. They still have to play rival Oregon State, which could be the nail in their top 25 coffin.

The next four teams have a very logical order: both #14 Cincinnati and #15 Virginia beat #16 Connecticut, with the Cavs eeking out a 1-point victory, and the Huskies (like the Bearcats) having a win over #17 South Florida.

Illinois moves up three spots to #18, and if they win their bowl game could have a good argument to leap into the top ten; one of their three losses was to #1 Missouri, and one of their two top-25-wins is over #3 Ohio State. Arizona State, though they have no bad losses, also has no quality wins; their best victim is 7-4 Oregon State. Still, this puts them well ahead of Boise State, who lost to Washington early in the year.

Texas, who has one marginal top-25 win, places 21st, followed by Wisconsin, BYU, and Clemson, who have none. Idle Texas Tech holds on at #25. They are joined by Tennessee, who is pushed into the rankings by virtue of Arkansas' win over LSU. The Volunteers beat Arkansas convincingly a few weeks ago, and at 9-3 slip into a tie for 25th since no teams fall out of the rankings this week. They'll have a chance to make a big leap up when they face LSU in the Big 12 championship game next Saturday.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week 12: some stability

With a relatively upset-free weekend the top 25 is pretty stable. Two teams in the top five lost, of course, but that's par for this season's course. They both remain in the top ten, so overall things are starting to "lock in," that is, wild swings in a team's ranking aren't occurring as much. The largest move this week is five spots.

Kansas stays number one. They beat the point spread again (with all the talk about the spread offense I'm careful now to qualify the word 'spread') and have a chance to be the first team to beat the spread every game over the season. That kind of dominance is how they are number one without beating any top 25 teams. The Jayhawks really lucked out schedule-wise in terms of the Big 12 South teams they face—no Texas, Tech, or Oklahoma—and their pre-conference schedule was a joke. But they'll earn their ranking over the next two weeks or fall from the national title picture.

LSU on the other hand has had a murderous schedule that's not nearly reflected by listing their top 25 wins. Plus they're one triple-overtime road loss away from perfection.

Ohio State and West Virginia are very close at 3rd and 4th, and it will get even closer if West Virginia wins out. For now the Buckeyes maintain the edge due to their overwhelming defense. This comparison suddenly became very important because if LSU loses or Oklahoma wins the Big 12, one of these two teams will play for the national title.

Missouri jumps idle Arizona State to #5, and this one's an easy comparison as ASU has no top 25 victories. Both teams have tough games next week, vs. Kansas and USC respectively.

Hawaii remained undefeated and stays ahead of all the 2-loss teams. If they go undefeated I'll keep moving them up accordingly as they will have to beat Boise State and then likely a major conference champ in a BCS bowl. I don't think it'll come to that as the Warriors have squeaked by several mediocre teams. They aren't comparable to a Utah circa 2004 or even a Boise State circa 2006.

Oregon and Oklahoma were of course the big losers of the week. Both were in line for the national title and lost their quarterbacks early in the game which led to their collapse. Who knew that Sam Bradford was as important to the Sooners' offense as Dennis Dixon was to the Ducks'? The two teams, along with #10 Boston College, are pretty interchangeable rankings-wise: all have two losses, one of them against a losing team, and (with B.C.'s win over Clemson) two wins against top-25 teams. Oklahoma's and Oregon's wins are a bit more impressive than B.C.'s, and the Ducks can additionally claim the Michigan blowout. The road ahead looks worse for Oregon without Dennis Dixon, but strictly looking back they're slightly in front. I make my rankings using the concept "if the season ended right now, who did the best?" rather than projecting who would win a matchup between two teams currently.

lw   #  Team             rec important games(losses; wins over top 25)
1    1. Kansas          11-0
2    2. LSU             10-1 L@KY43-37ot;wVT48-7,wFLA28-24
4    3. Ohio State      11-1 L Ill28-21;wWis38-17,wPSU37-17,w@Mich14-3
5    4. West Virginia    9-1 L@SoFLA21-13;w@Cincy28-23
8    5. Missouri        10-1 L@OK41-31;w@Ill40-34,wTTech41-10
7    6. Arizona State    9-1 L@Ore35-23
9    7. Hawaii          10-0
3    8. Oregon           8-2 L@Ariz34-24,L Cal31-24;w@Mich39-7,wUSC24-17,wASU35-23
6    9. Oklahoma         9-2 L@Col27-24,L@TTech34-27;wTex28-21,wMiz41-31
10  10. Boston College   9-2 L@Mary42-35,L FSU27-17;w@VT14-10,w@Clem20-17
11  11. Virginia Tech    9-2 L@LSU48-7,L BC14-10;w@Clem41-23
12  12. Georgia          9-2 L SC16-12,L@Tenn35-14;wFLA42-30
14  13. Virginia         9-2 L@Wyoming23-3,L@NCSt29-24;wConn17-16
15  14. Connecticut      9-2 L@Virg17-16,L@Cin27-3;wUSF22-15
16  15. Boise State     10-1 L@Wash24-10
13  16. Cincinnati       8-3 L@Pitt24-17,L Lou28-24,L WVA28-23;w@USF38-33,wConn27-3
17  17. South Florida    8-3 L@Rut30-27,L@Conn22-15,L Cin38-33;wWVA21-13
18  18. Florida          8-3 L Aub20-17,L@LSU28-24,L@GA42-30