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The Pittsburgh Steelers won Super Bowl 43, beating Arizona 27-23 for their sixth Super Bowl victory. Cardinal QB Kurt Warner almost pulled off a big comeback with two fourth-quarter touchdowns to Larry Fitzgerald but couldn't offset James Harrison's record 100-yard interception return. Ben Roethlisberger's TD pass to Santonio Holmes with 35 seconds left put the Steelers up for good after they had briefly lost the lead late in the game.
Warner generally outperformed Roethlisberger, who won his second Super Bowl while performing questionably, though he finished 21-of-30 for 256 yards and a touchdown. Warner was 31 of 43 for 377 yards and three touchdowns but the interception by Harrison to end the first half was pivotal. Holmes and Fitzgerald were offensive stars for their teams, each with well over 100 receiving yards.
1st quarter
Pittsburgh went up 3-0 lead on an 18-yard Jeff Reed field goal. Steeler quarterback Ben Roethlisberger set up the score with completions of 38 yards to Hines Ward and 21 yards to Heath Miller. On first and goal from the one, Gary Russell lost four yards. Two plays later Roethlisberger appeared to score on 3rd-and-goal from the 1, but the touchdown was called back.
Arizona's first possession was less successful; they gained few yards and only one first down on a toss by Kurt Warner, as a subsequent penalty and fumble forced a punt.
Roethlisberger immediately had the Steelers driving into Cardinal territory again with a 25 yard completion to Holmes. Another set of completions to Holmes and Miller put the Steelers in the red zone for the second time at the 7-yard line. Facing another 3rd and goal from the 1, this time Russell took it in for the touchdown and a 10-0 lead early in the 2nd quarter.
2nd quarter
Warner fared much better on the Cardinals' next attempt. Speeding up the play calling, he connected with Steve Breaston again for a first down, then pierced Steeler territory for the first time with a completion to Edgerrin James. A few plays later a 45-yarder to Anquan Bolden put the Cards on Pittsburgh's 1-yard line, then Ben Patrick leapt high in the end zone to grab Warner's pass and made it 10-7. Warner was 7-for-8 on the drive.
The Cardinal defense showed some life after that, and along with Pittsburgh's own mistakes, including two penalties, dug a big hole for the Steelers on 4th down.
Steve Breaston returned Mitch Berger's punt 34 yards to begin their drive in Steeler territory, and momentum seemed to have changed. But a 15-yard penalty and a LaMarr Woodley sack of Kurt Warner pushed Arizona back onto their side of the field and forced a punt.
It appeared that Pittsburgh would have the last possession of the half, as they had dominated time of possession thus far. But Arizona got another momentum changing play from Karlos Dansby, who intercepted Roethlisberger on Pittsburgh's 34 yard line at the 2:00 warning.
Warner hit a couple of clutch passes, the latter to Fitzgerald for his first catch of the day, to put the Cardinals in the red zone with less than a minute to go. The Cardinals had 1st and goal from the 1-yard line when James Harrison made one of the biggest plays in Super Bowl history, intercepting Warner and taking it back 100 yards for a Steelers score, rolling into the end zone along with two Cardinals including Fitzgerald, who may have kept Harrison's knee from touching before he tumbled into the end zone with no time remaining.
Harrison's return shattered the record for the longest interception return in a Super Bowl; the previous record was a 75-yard TD return by Willie Brown of the Oakland Raiders against Minnesota in Super Bowl XI.
Halftime score: Pittsburgh 17, Arizona 7
3rd quarter
The Cardinals attempted to recover from the jolt in the 2nd half. The offense, with James running well, pushed into Steeler territory once again before stalling.
Pittsburgh took over and an Arizona face masking penalty helped put them at midfield, and a roughing the passer call moved them to the Cardinal 35. Willie Parker had his best run of the game, a 15-yarder that put the Steelers on the 5 yard line, first and goal to go, but he was stuffed for a 4-yard loss on the next play. Roethlisberger failed on two passing attempts but a questionable roughing call—Arizona's 8th penalty of the day—kept the Steeler drive alive. Still, Pittsburgh had to settle for another short field goal as the Cardinal defense made more tough stops near the goal line.
The drive took over eight minutes off the clock, however, leaving the Cards just over 15 minutes for their comeback attempt. The third quarter ended with the Steelers up 20-7.
4th quarter
Arizona's offense stalled again—hurt by yet another penalty, for holding—and Ben Graham's punt was short and Arizona was called for another penalty, giving Pittsburgh solid field position. But the Cardinal defense stepped up with two tackles-for-loss and the Steelers punted the ball back without running much time off the clock.
With time getting scarce, Warner put together an impressive hurry-up drive. After reaching mid-field with three completions, he hit J.J. Arrington for a 22-yard strike to Pittsburgh's 28, then hit Fitzgerald to put them on the ten. Fitzgerald nabbed another pass that moved them to the four yard line, and two plays later he leapt for Warner's second 1-yard TD toss of the day, closing the gap to 20-14 with 7 1/2 minutes to go.
On the following series Darnell Dockett's second sack of the day was huge for the Cardinals, forcing another Pittsburgh three-and-out; again the Steelers took just two minutes off the clock. Once again, from their own 25 Arizona wasted little time in reaching midfield, and Warner's 23-yard strike to Breaston put them near the red zone. But another penalty (#11) backed them up 10 yards, and Warner suffered three rare incompletions and the Cardinals had to punt, pinning the Steelers on their 1-yard line.
Pittsburgh's increasingly ineffective offense couldn't dig out of the hole; the Steelers stalled for no gain twice before suffering a safety on a holding penalty, and Arizona got the ball back again, down just 20-16.
Arizona took over on their 36 and needed just two plays—the latter a 64 yard pass to Fitzgerald out in front of three Steeler defenders—to take the lead 23-20.
Roethlisberger's last chance to redeem himself—and make up for his poor performance in the Steelers' last Super Bowl—started slow, but he managed to get the Steelers to midfield with a minute to go, converting a 3rd-and-six. A 40-yard completion to Santonio Holmes later and they were at the six yard line; Roethlisberger connected with Holmes again for the go-ahead TD with 35 seconds remaining.
Warner immediately went to Fitzgerald for 20 yards to near mid-field, 22 seconds to go. Another 13 yards to Arrington put them in Steeler territory. But on the next play Warner was sacked by Woodley—his second of the day—and fumbled the ball, and Pittsburgh's Brett Keisel recovered for the Steelers. It might have been ruled a forward pass, but wasn't, and ended the Cardinals' hopes.
Final Score: Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Arizona Cardinals 23
Sunday February 1st: Super Bowl XLIII in Tampa, FL 6:00* pm eastern (actual kickoff closer to 6:30)
Pittsburgh Steelers (14-4) vs. Arizona Cardinals (12-7)
The Steelers are looking for their sixth NFL title in their eighth appearance; the Cardinals are in their very first Super Bowl.
Vegas line: Pittsburgh by 7
The Steelers are heavy favorites, with the line now varying between 6 1/2 and 7 points.
Strength Power Rating: Pittsburgh 29 Arizona 19
Pittsburgh is the #1 team in the league according to the Strength Power Rating and is favored by 10 points over Arizona, who barely registers as an average team when the entire season is considered. Here is the current state of the power rating through all games played so far this year:
num Team record rating offense defense
1. Pittsburgh 14-4 10.40 24.46 [ 9] 14.06 [ 1]
2. Baltimore 13-6 10.21 26.02 [ 6] 15.80 [ 3]
3. Philadephia 11-6 9.31 26.94 [ 5] 17.63 [ 4]
4. Tennessee 13-4 8.40 22.85 [ 16] 14.44 [ 2]
5. NY Giants 12-5 7.87 26.95 [ 4] 19.07 [ 7]
6. Indianapolis 12-5 5.89 24.08 [ 12] 18.19 [ 6]
7. San Diego 9-9 4.55 26.99 [ 2] 22.44 [ 17]
8. New England 11-5 3.88 24.30 [ 10] 20.42 [ 13]
9. Carolina 12-5 3.47 23.48 [ 14] 20.00 [ 10]
10. New Orleans 8-8 3.27 28.46 [ 1] 25.19 [ 26]
11. Minnesota 10-7 2.96 22.58 [ 18] 19.61 [ 9]
12. Atlanta 11-6 2.75 22.89 [ 15] 20.14 [ 11]
13. Green Bay 6-10 2.22 25.80 [ 7] 23.57 [ 22]
14. Chicago 9-7 1.50 22.84 [ 17] 21.34 [ 14]
15. Tampa Bay 9-7 1.49 21.03 [ 20] 19.53 [ 8]
16. Dallas 9-7 0.89 23.97 [ 13] 23.07 [ 20]
17. NY Jets 9-7 0.17 24.17 [ 11] 24.00 [ 23]
18. Arizona 12-7 0.08 26.96 [ 3] 26.87 [ 28]
That's quite a gap between the rankings of the teams, even bigger than last year's gap between the Patriots and the Giants. Last year, the Giants were ranked among the top 10 teams as they made the Super Bowl from the wildcard slot, and had an impressive set of late-season games. Arizona has come alive during the playoffs, but not the way the Giants did. Though the Steelers were hardly as dominant as the Patriots, they still rank at the top and haven't slowed down the way New England did in the 2nd half of the 2007 season.
Arizona on offense: If Arizona is to win, they need a strong game from Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald as their #3 scoring offense takes on the Steelers' #1 ranked defense. The Steelers are rock-solid against both the pass and the run, ranking #1 and #2 in the league. The Cardinals' air attack is #2 in the league but their rushing game is dead last, which should allow the Steeler defense to focus on Warner. They're tied for 6th in interceptions and are 2nd in sacks, and Warner has been vulnerable to both, particularly interceptions. Because the Steelers are so good against the pass and the Arizona running game might not be a threat, the Cardinals have to speed up the play calling to keep Pittsburgh's D off-balance.
Pittsburgh on offense: Though the Steelers rank just 17th in passing and 23rd in rushing in unadjusted yards, when corrected for their opposition their offensive output looks much better: Pittsburgh's offense ranks 9th in adjusted scoring average, which should be more than adequate against the Cardinals' 28th-ranked defense. Ben Roethlisberger isn't having the kind of year Warner had, and he's been sacked 51 times and lost 7 fumbles this year. Arizona is 22nd in raw passing yards yielded on defense and 16th against the run, so they can theoretically keep up with the Steeler offense, but that's against relatively weak competition. And while Pittsburgh lacks consistency on offense, they do have more of a run/pass balance, and Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore should keep the Cards on their toes if they try to rush Roethlisberger, and Hines Wards' questionable knee might make them more important still.
Special Teams: Pittsburgh's punting game is woeful and near the bottom of the league in both punting average and returns; Arizona isn't much better, though, so they don't have that big of an advantage in the field position game. The two teams are nearly identical in field goal percentage and points scored on kicks.
Game-comparison win %
Pittsburgh 70%
Arizona 30%
Pittsburgh has been markedly more consistent than Arizona this season, with the latter suffering several big losses throughout the season. The Steelers haven't won by huge margins, but tend to play at a reliable level. This makes Pittsburgh a 7 in 10 favorite to win when all game-comparisons are cross-combined.
Pittsburgh's key games
Wins over playoff teams (5)
Losses (4):
Pittsburgh has five wins over playoff teams—but those are all over Baltimore and San Diego, and four of the five were at home. But their losses are all to playoff teams as well; they haven't been devastatingly blown out, nor have they lost to a bad team. They bounced back from their worst game of the year ( the Tennessee loss) to shut out Cleveland 31-0 before the playoffs.
Arizona's key games
Wins over playoff teams (4):
Losses (7):
Three of Arizona's four wins over playoff teams occurred in the post-season itself; from their week two crushing of Miami through the end of the regular season, they beat no one of note. But over the next three weeks they avenged two losses.
Speaking of losses, the Cards had their share this year, and many of them weren't pretty. Four of them count as blowouts, three losses were to non-playoff teams, and two were blowout losses to non-playoff teams. Since New England was a playoff-level team at 11-5 that's a bit harsh, but the 47-7 loss—which happened just a little over a month ago—was a breakdown on all fronts. Some have suggested that it led to the team's turnaround, and certainly they've played much better in the four games since. But I'd hesitate to give such a devastating loss too much credit. They played a horrible game at New England, and since then they haven't, that's all.
Psychology
The Cards are in their first Super Bowl appearance while the Steelers have been here recently, and historically. While in many sports this would give Arizona the edge for "hunger" that usually doesn't apply in the Super Bowl; rookie teams typically have big problems. By my count, teams making their initial Super Bowl appearance are 9-18 and have been on the receiving end of quite a few blowouts.
Another wild card is Roethlisberger's performance. In his last Super Bowl outing he had a sloppy game to be kind. Pittsburgh still won, showing that they don't need him to be the star. But it would help if he had a much better game.
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Final analysis
Last year's Super Bowl was an odd game. Despite dominating the season and being a heavy favorite by the oddsmakers, a very large section of the public didn't think the Patriots could complete their perfect season. And there were good reasons: the dominance they'd shown in the first half of the season had devolved into close calls and narrow escapes. Meanwhile the Giants had put together a string of remarkable games to make it to the Super Bowl. From that angle, it looked like a close game, and in the end it was.This game has some similarities. Compared on a whole-season level, there's no way the Cardinals should beat the Steelers. Arizona rates as a completely average team by the power ratings, they've been blown out multiple times, and they have no running game. Pittsburgh rates as the best team in the league, and the oddsmakers favor them heavily as well.
Could this be another situation like last season? I don't think so. While the Giants were at least a top 10 team last year, in the playoffs they were neck and neck with the Patriots level of play. The Cardinals don't even look like they should have made the playoffs. Their defense is among the worst in the league.
But what about their last four games? What happened after the crushing loss to New England? Despite their defensive problems, they're certainly playing well enough recently to beat a Pittsburgh team with a very questionable offense.
However, I think Pittsburgh's defense will live up to its forebears in the Steel Curtain tradition. Without having to cope with a running game, they will be able to stifle Warner. The defense will give the offense opportunities, and Roethlisberger will do a lot better than last time around. Given that, and that Super Bowls are often blowouts and unkind to first-time teams, that's what I think will happen on Sunday.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 31 Arizona 10
Unfortunately there will be no more Packer Bikini Girls, and there won't be a very compelling matchup on Super Bowl Sunday. The only drama will be: can the Patriots again beat a team they beat on the road in the last game of the regular season?
A Patriots-Cowboys matchup would have been a rerun as well, but at least Dallas shared the best record in the NFC. Green Bay would have been the best matchup: they had the good record and they hadn't had a shot at the Pats yet. But alas, it was not to be.
The New England-New York game from several weeks ago was fairly close. The Giants led into the 3rd quarter before Brady and Moss engineered a comeback. But the season is really ending in an anti-climactic way after two teams started 8-0. We didn't even get a Pats-Colts rematch in the AFC championship game.
Of the four best teams in the league, we'll see one of them in the Super Bowl. Along with a chance to see history made. Or to see a historic upset if the Giants can pull it off.
Really, no one seems to care anymore who gets to the Super Bowl; the game itself has become so big in the last few decades that people talk about the commercials as much as the game. That or Janet Jackson's tit.
Speaking of tit, here's a last few looks at the Packers Bikini Girls. Too bad their team didn't win or they might have gotten a Playboy pictorial out of their team's success. Better luck next year, ladies.
The line on New England vs. San Diego stands at 14 after opening at 15. This line seems to reflect the oddsmakers (and probably moreso, the public) thinking of New England as the dominant team they were during the 1st half of the season, rather than the not-nearly-as-good team they've been ever since.
Once again, the power ratings (points-based) for New England's entire season, and the same power rating when splitting the Patriots into two halves (first eight games, next nine games including 1st playoff game):
rnk Team rec rating off def rnk Team rec rating off def
1. New England Patriots 17-0 19.88 37.22 17.33
2. Indianapolis Colts 13-4 11.10 28.10 17.00
3. Green Bay Packers 14-3 9.78 28.13 18.34
4. San Diego Chargers 13-5 9.28 25.96 16.67
New England's overall team is 10 points better than San Diego, and with home field a 14-15 point spread doesn't seem unreasonable. But when split into two season-halves:
1a New England Patriots 8-0 26.14 41.68 15.54
1b New England Patriots 2 9-0 14.38 33.28 18.90
2. Indianapolis Colts 13-4 10.70 27.97 17.27
3. Green Bay Packers 14-3 9.83 28.15 18.32
4. San Diego Chargers 13-5 9.55 26.00 16.45
New England's 1st half team is 17+ points better than San Diego, but the team they've been recently has had close calls with most of the teams they've played. They look more like one touchdown favorites to me. Indeed, here are the score projections these ratings yield for all three comparisons (overall team, 1st-half team, and 2nd-half team):
New England Patriots 33 (Entire season)
San Diego Chargers 21
New England Patriots 38 (1st half season)
San Diego Chargers 19
New England Patriots 2 29 (2nd half season)
San Diego Chargers 22
The Patriots have played fairly consistently during both halves, as well, and did not step their game back up for the Jacksonville playoff game. Here is a graph (courtesy of Google chart-maker) of their game-by-game power ratings for the season:
This suggests they will continue to play like they have in recent months, and that the 14-15 point spread is too favorable to the Patriots. Also it seems that the correct split for New England's season is after game 10, which would make their most recent seven-game average even lower; their five worst performances have come in their last seven games.
That said, I wouldn't bet against the Patriots myself. Vegas usually has a pretty good reason for setting the line the way they do, and a touchdown here or there can change things dramatically. I'm not arguing that the Chargers will beat the line, just that the line is set too high. There is a difference between the two statements..!
