College Football

Alabama takes over #1 in Lineal Top 25

I haven't posted the Lineal Top 25 all year, since Florida was at the top and without a change in the "Heavyweight Champion" the rest of the list is pretty much a novelty. But now that there's been a change at the top, I've refigured the entire list.

The list begins with the first college football games in 1869 and, every time the top team gets defeated, they are pushed down to #2 and the winner takes over. Follow this simple logic for a list of 25 teams and you have the Lineal College Football Top 25.

Here's how the top 10 looked at the end of last season:

1. Florida                13-1 
2. Oklahoma               12-2 
3. Mississippi             9-4 
4. Texas Tech             11-2 
5. Texas                  12-1
6. Oregon                 10-3 
7. Oklahoma State          9-4 
8. Kansas                  8-5
9. Missouri               10-4
10. Utah                  13-0 

Alabama began the year at #11.

Right off the bat, #2 Oklahoma lost to BYU, putting the Cougars at #2. Two weeks later, Florida State knocked off BYU to take over the runner-up spot.

The very next week FSU lost to South Florida, who held the spot for a few more weeks before losing to Cincinnati. The Bearcats finished 12-0, meaning they held the #2 spot for the rest of the year until pushed to #3 behind Alabama and Florida.

Alabama bounced around, treading water in the 2nd ten as there weren't SEC teams in the top ten to jump over with a win. Texas lost ground as the #2 teams kept losing, but stayed in the top 25 by beating Oklahoma. TCU beat BYU to jump nearly into the top ten, while Boise State's win over Oregon initially put them at #7 but they were slowly but surely pushed out of the top 25.

Here is what the Lineal Top 25 looked like at approximately mid-season:

1. Florida                 
2. Cincinnati         
3. Pittsburgh            
4. South Florida         
5. Georgia Tech          
6. North Carolina
7. Virginia Tech         
8. Notre Dame
9. Boston College        
10. Florida State        
11. TCU
12. BYU             
13. Clemson
14. Miami FL            
15. Texas                 
16. Oklahoma             
17. Alabama
18. South Carolina      
19. Mississippi         
20. Houston
21. Southern Miss
22. East Carolina
23. Memphis             
24. UAB
25. UTEP              

Houston's loss to UTEP brought a lot of C-USA teams into the mix, and the Cougars' win over Southern Miss put them back on top of all those teams.

As of this week, this is how it looks. Texas has been pushed off the list, and so was Alabama until their win over Florida put them at #1.

1. Alabama
2. Florida
3. Cincinnati
4. West Virginia
5. Pittsburgh
6. Connecticut
7. Syracuse
8. Rutgers
9. Miami FL
10. South Florida
11. Georgia
12. Georgia Tech
13. North Carolina State
14. North Carolina
15. Virginia Tech
16. Wisconsin
17. Hawaii
18. Navy
19. Stanford
20. Notre Dame
21. Boston College
22. South Carolina
23. Clemson
24. Florida State
25. TCU      

Notre Dame, who entered by beating Boston College, had lost to Navy and Stanford by this time. Rutgers beat South Florida, then lost to Syracuse, putting a glut of Big East teams at the top. The bowl games should mix things up a bit, though the SEC might become entrenched at the top unless Texas or Cincinnati wins their bowl game.

Florida tops season's-end 2008 Lineal Top 25

For the fifth and final time this season the Lineal College Football Title has changed hands, and appropriately enough Florida is the new champion. By beating Oklahoma, who held the title since week 13, Florida finishes at number one for the 2nd year of the last three. It's also the fourth year in the last five that the BCS champion has ended the year the Lineal champion as well. Last year Missouri finished on top while LSU was the BCS champ.

For all of the regular season the title was in the Big Twelve's hands. Missouri lost the crown to Oklahoma State in week seven to Oklahoma State; the Cowboys lost it two week later to Texas. The Longhorns fell the very next week to Texas Tech, who made it three weeks before losing to Oklahoma. The Sooners defended their title against two of the former champs, Oklahoma State and Missouri, before losing last night to Florida and falling to #2.

The top ranks are still dominated by Big Twelve teams, but not like last week when they made up the top six. The SEC is very well represented with 11 of 12 teams in the rankings!

College Football Lineal Top 25 as of 1/08/2009:

lw   #  Team                    rec  bowl results
7    1. Florida                13-1  beat #1 Oklahoma
1    2. Oklahoma               12-2  lost to #7 Florida
15   3. Mississippi             9-4  beat #2 Texas Tech
2    4. Texas Tech             11-2  lost to #15 Mississippi
3    5. Texas                  12-1 
--   6. Oregon                 10-3  beat #4 Oklahoma State
4    7. Oklahoma State          9-4  lost to Oregon
5    8. Kansas                  8-5
6    9. Missouri               10-4
--  10. Utah                   13-0  beat #8 Alabama
8   11. Alabama                12-1  lost to Utah
20  12. LSU                     8-5  beat #9 Georgia Tech
9   13. Georgia Tech            9-4  lost to #20 LSU
10  14. Georgia                10-3
11  15. Tennessee               5-7 
12  16. Wake Forest             8-5   
13  17. Vanderbilt              7-6 
14  18. Kentucky                7-6 
--  19. Nebraska                9-4  beat #16 Clemson
16  20. Clemson                 7-6  lost to Nebraska 
--  21. Iowa                    9-4  beat #17 South Carolina
17  22. South Carolina          7-6  lost to Iowa
18  23. Mississippi State       4-8 
19  24. Arkansas                5-7 
21  25. San Diego State         2-10
        fell out this week
22  --  UNLV                    5-7 
23  --  Colorado State          7-6 
24  --  Wyoming                 4-8   
25  --  North Carolina St.      6-7 

The biggest mover within the top 25 is Mississippi, up from 15 to 3 after beating Texas Tech. LSU jumps big following a defeat of Georgia Tech. For newcomers, Oregon and Utah debut in the top 10 with upset wins; Nebraska and Iowa also join.

Oklahoma tops week 13 Lineal Top 25

Once again—the fourth time this season—we have a new Lineal College Football champion. The Missouri Tigers started the year #1, then were defeated by Oklahoma State, who got outpointed by Texas, who lost a split decision to Texas Tech, who just got KO'ed in the first round by the Oklahoma Sooners. Surprisingly, Oklahoma wasn't even in the top 25 last week; they fell out of the top 25 after week 2 and haven't gotten back in until now.

Now these teams, in reverse order, make up the top five in the Lineal Top 25, where you stay on top until someone beats you, and you only climb by beating a team ahead of you.

College Football Lineal Top 25 as of 11/23/2008:

lw   #  Team                    rec  this week's results
--   1. Oklahoma               10-1  beat #1 Texas Tech
1    2. Texas Tech             10-1  lost to Oklahoma
2    3. Texas                  10-1 
3    4. Oklahoma State          9-2 
4    5. Missouri                9-2 
5    6. Alabama                10-0 
6    7. Florida                10-1 
7    8. Georgia                 9-2 
16   9. Tennessee               4-6  beat #8 Vanderbilt
8   10. Vanderbilt              6-5  lost to #16 Tennessee
9   11. Kentucky                6-4 
10  12. Mississippi             7-4  beat #13 LSU
11  13. South Carolina          7-4 
17  14. Mississippi State       4-7  beat #12 Arkansas
12  15. Arkansas                4-7  lost to #17 Miss. State
13  16. LSU                     7-4  lost to #10 Mississippi
--  17. San Diego State         2-10 beat #14 UNLV
14  18. UNLV                    5-7  lost to San Diego State
--  19. Colorado State          6-6  beat #15 Wyoming
15  20. Wyoming                 4-8  lost to Colorado State 
18  21. North Carolina St.      5-6 
--  22. Boston College          8-3  beat #19 Wake Forest
19  23. Wake Forest             6-5  lost to Boston College 
20  24. Clemson                 6-5 
--  25. Virginia Tech           7-4  beat #21 Duke
        fell out this week
21  --  Duke                    4-6 
22  --  Cincinnati              8-2 
23  --  West Virginia           6-3 
24  --  Auburn                  5-6 
25  --  Utah                   11-0

After the five current and previous '08 season champs from the Big Twelve, spots six through 16 are held by SEC teams. This is due to the Florida-->Auburn-->LSU-->Arkansas run last season, and all of the conference losses each has suffered since.

After that things get a little more diverse, with four teams entering this week (in addition to Oklahoma). San Diego State would never make the real Top 25 with a 2-10 record, but by beating UNLV (who had beaten Wyoming, who had upset Tennessee), they come in at #17 this week, just in time for head coach Chuck Long to get fired. He should have argued, "but we're in the top 25!!!" (It couldn't have hurt his cause...)

If there is to be another new champion before the bowl games, it will be #4 Oklahoma State or #5 Missouri, which are the Sooners' next two games. If there's to be a non-Big Twelve champion this football season, it will have to happen after January 1st.

Lineal Top 25: 3rd new champion in 4 weeks

I'm having to pay more attention to the Lineal Top 25 lately—the #1 team keeps getting knocked off!

Three weeks ago Oklahoma State took over at #1 from Missouri. Their reign on top lasted only two weeks before they lost to Texas. Now the Longhorns have had an even shorter run, just one week, and they've been replaced by the Red Raiders of Texas Tech.

In less than a month the top slots have filled up with Big Twelve teams, and that won't change at least until the bowl season. Oklahoma State is at #3 and has a chance to take the #1 spot back next weekend as they play Texas Tech. This will almost certainly give Oklahoma a shot at the title before the regular season is over, as the Sooners play both Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. And former #1 Missouri should get a chance to recover the top slot, too, assuming they win the Big Twelve North. Only during the bowl season will another conference have a chance to take back the crown.

And it may be an SEC representative to face the Big 12 winner. Right now the SEC dominates the rest of the top 15, holding the spots from #5 to #14. These large conference "clumps" form during October and November, only to be broken apart in December and January, sort of like a spring thaw in reverse.

Here is the current state of the Lineal Top 25:

Week 10 (games thru 11/02/2008)
lw  new Team                    rec  last week's result
--   1. Texas Tech              9-0  beat #1 Texas
1    2. Texas                   8-1  lost to Texas Tech
2    3. Oklahoma State          8-1 
3    4. Missouri                7-2
4    5. Alabama                 8-0 
5    6. Florida                 7-1  beat #9 Georgia  
6    7. Kentucky                6-2  beat #11 Mississippi State
7    8. Mississippi             5-4  beat #16 Auburn
8    9. Arkansas                4-5 
9   10. Georgia                 7-2  lost to #5 Florida 
10  11. LSU                     6-2 
    12. South Carolina          6-3  beat #12 Tennessee
11  13. Tennessee               3-5  lost to South Carolina
12  14. Mississippi State       3-6  lost to #6 Kentucky
    15. Wake Forest             5-3  beat #13 Duke
13  16. Duke                    4-4  lost to Wake Forest
14  17. Vanderbilt              5-3 
15  18. West Virginia           6-2 
16  19. Auburn                  4-5  lost to #7 Mississippi 
17  20. Utah                    9-0 
18  21. Penn State              9-0 
19  22. Ohio State              7-2   
20  23. Michigan State          8-2 
--  24. Miami                   6-3  beat Virginia
21  25. Virginia                5-4  lost to Miami

out:
22      North Carolina          6-2 
23      Notre Dame              5-3 
24      Minnesota               7-2 
25      Wisconsin               4-5

Lineal Top 25: #2 Texas beats #1 Oklahoma State!!!

I neglected to keep track of the Lineal Top 25 for one week and looked what happened—I didn't realize that last Saturday's clash between Oklahoma State and Texas was a battle between #1 and #2!

You see, two weeks ago Oklahoma State knocked Missouri out of the top spot, putting the Tigers at #2. The next week, Texas beat Missouri, taking over the #2 spot. That set up a quite rare #1 vs. #2 contest! Normally the #1 team has just defeated the #2 team, and they don't play again. But since Texas moved in and played the Cowboys next, we witnessed a rare case where a team moves from #2 to #1 on the all-time Lineal top 25!

And that wasn't all for the top ten; there were several other top ten clashes, mostly because of the preponderance of SEC teams at the top of the chart. #5 Florida beat #6 Kentucky, so neither team moved; likewise #4 Alabama defeated #10 Tennessee, leaving matters unchanged. But LSU and Georgia traded places with the Bulldogs' win, and both were pushed down a spot as Mississippi beat Arkansas.

Arkansas is just 3-5, but recall how they got so high: they beat LSU last year when LSU was #1. LSU in turn had taken the title from Auburn, who had beaten Florida, who had defeated Ohio State in the national championship game of the 2006 season. Ohio State, interestingly, took the title from 2005 national champ Texas...so here we are, a little over two years later, and the lineal crown is back in Texas' hands.

Here is the current state of the Lineal Top 25:

Week 9 (games thru 10/25/2008)
lw  new Team                    rec  last week's result
2    1. Texas                   8-0  beat #1 Oklahoma State
1    2. Oklahoma State          7-1  lost to #2 Texas
3    3. Missouri                6-2
4    4. Alabama                 8-0  beat #10 Tennessee
5    5. Florida                 6-1  beat #6 Kentucky
6    6. Kentucky                5-2  lost to #5 Florida
     7. Mississippi             4-4  beat #7 Arkansas
7    8. Arkansas                3-5  lost to Mississippi
9    9. Georgia                 7-1  beat #8 LSU 
8   10. LSU                     5-2  lost to #9 Georgia
10  11. Tennessee               3-5  lost to #4 Alabama
11  12. Mississippi State       3-5 
    13. Duke                    4-3  beat #12 Vanderbilt
12  14. Vanderbilt              5-3  lost to Duke
    15. West Virginia           5-2  beat #13 Auburn
13  16. Auburn                  4-4  lost to West Virginia
14  17. Utah                    8-0 
24  18. Penn State              9-0  beat #15 Ohio State
15  19. Ohio State              7-2  lost to #24 Penn State 
16  20. Michigan State          7-2 
17  21. Virginia                5-3 
18  22. North Carolina          6-2 
19  23. Notre Dame              5-2 
20  24. Minnesota               7-1 
    25. Wisconsin               4-4 beat #21 Illinois

Lineal Top 25 week 7 - Oklahoma State is new all-time champion!

I almost didn't realize it—since I've been neglecting the poor Lineal Top 25—but there is a new "All-Time College Football Champion" and it is the Oklahoma State Cowboys!

Starting way back in 1869 with the Rutgers-Princeton winner and carrying through until today, if you leapfrog winners over losers, you can track the #1 team of all-time (in a sense) and extended down 24 more teams, you have the Lineal Top 25.

At the end of last season Missouri took over the #1 spot and didn't relinquish it until this week. Here is the current state of the Lineal Top 25:

Week 7 (games thru 10/11/2008)
lw  new Team                    rec  last week's result
--   1. Oklahoma State          6-0  Beat Missouri
1    2. Missouri                5-1  Lost to Oklahoma State
2    3. Alabama                 6-0
3    4. Texas                   6-0
4    5. Florida                 5-1  Beat LSU
5    6. Arkansas                3-3  Beat Auburn
6    7. LSU                     4-1  Lost to Florida
7    8. Georgia                 5-1 
23   9. Mississippi State       2-4  Beat Vanderbilt
8   10. Vanderbilt              5-1  Lost to Mississippi State
9   11. Auburn                  4-3  Lost to Arkansas
10  12. Utah                    7-0 
11  13. Michigan State          6-1 
--  14. North Carolina          5-1  Beat Notre Dame
12  15. Notre Dame              4-2  Lost to North Carolina
--  16. Minnesota               6-1  Beat Illinois
13  17. Illinois                3-3  Lost to Minnesota
--  18. Toledo                  3-4  Beat Michigan
14  19. Michigan                2-4  Lost to Toledo
15  20. South Carolina          5-2 
16  21. Mississippi             3-3
17  22. Pittsburgh              4-1
18  23. South Florida           5-1 
19  24. Kansas                  5-1
20  25. Boise State             5-0

Oklahoma State flies in all the way from who knows where to take the #1 spot. Technically I could figure out where they were last week but laziness has taken its toll on my interest in the Lineal Top 25 except on weeks where the top spot changes.

Not much else happened except Mississippi State, already on last week's list at #23, upset Vanderbilt to jump to #9. As normally happens, a cluster of same-conference teams formed around Arkansas and LSU, with a total of eight SEC teams in the top 11. During conference play this gets even more prominent, until the bowl season breaks things up a bit.

North Carolina and Minnesota jump in by beating Notre Dame and Illinois, respectively, but Toledo slips in at #18 by beating Michigan. They're the only MAC team in the Lineal Top 25, and probably the first one in a very long time. Again, I could research this but, nahh.

Lineal Top 25 update

I guess I'll update the Lineal Top 25 after a few weeks of letting it slide.

If you recall, when we last saw the Lineal Top 25 at the end of last season, Missouri was #1. They took the title from Arkansas, who took it from LSU, who won it from Auburn, who took it from Florida, all last season. Florida took the title from Ohio State in the national championship game for the 2006 season. The Buckeyes took it from Texas who took it from USC who held it for a long, long time previous to that. Now the Trojans beat Ohio State, but don't get their title back just yet.

Here is the current state of the Lineal Top 25, where winners jump a spot ahead of losers:

Week 3 (games thru 9/14/2008)
lw  new Team                    rec  last week's result
1    1. Missouri                3-0
2    2. Arkansas                2-0
3    3. LSU                     2-0
4    4. Georgia                 3-0
5    5. Auburn                  3-0
6    6. Utah                    3-0
--   7. Notre Dame              2-0  Beat #7 Michigan
7    8. Michigan                1-2  Lost to Notre Dame
8    9. Florida                 2-0
--  10. South Florida           3-0  Beat #8 Kansas
9   11. Kansas                  2-1  Lost to USF
10  12. Louisiana Tech          1-1
11  13. Mississippi State       1-2  Lost to #5 Auburn
--  14. Maryland                2-1  Beat #12 Cal
12  15. California              2-1  Lost to Maryland
13  16. Tennessee               1-1
14  17. Kentucky                3-0
15  18. Southern Cal            2-0  Beat #17 OSU
16  19. Illinois                2-1
17  20. Ohio State              2-1  Lost to #15 USC
18  21. Minnesota               3-0
--  22. Boise State             2-0  Beat #19 Bowling Green
19  23. Bowling Green           1-2  Lost to Boise State
20  24. Pittsburgh              1-1
21  25. East Carolina           3-0

out:
22  --  West Virginia           1-1
23  --  Oklahoma                3-0
24  --  Cincinnati              1-1
25  --  Wake Forest             2-0

The all-important USC-Ohio State game, you'll see, didn't change anything. Even if the Buckeyes would have won, it would hardly have done anything; Ohio State still would have slipped a spot, the Trojans one more place. The most important game was the Irish beating Michigan and jumping in at #7. The Wolverines, if you recall, jumped into the top ten by beating Florida last season in the Capital One bowl.

South Florida's win over Kansas puts the Bulls back in the top ten, one week after they slipped out of the top 25. Auburn's win over Mississippi State changes nothing, but Maryland and Boise State pop in for their wins over Cal and Bowling Green respectively (Bowling Green beat Pitt who beat West Virginia last season).

West Virginia, Oklahoma, Cincinnati, and Wake Forest slide out. The fact that they were idle has little to do with falling out of the poll, as you have to keep beating higher-ups to stay in.

Missouri Tigers - 2007 Lineal Champion

The Missouri Tigers are the 2007 college football season Lineal champion, having defeated former #1 Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl.

Depending on how the title is tracked, Missouri has either has never before held the "lineal crown" for even one week in their history, or this is the third year they've finished at #1. The difference depends on how one handles non-Division I-A equivalent teams that take the title. In some systems, these games are ignored because the title would fall into the hands of a whole different division. I let the team hold the belt until another Division I-A team takes it back.

With that system, Missouri finished the year #1 in both 1926 and 1936.

Either way it's calculated, the title holder eventually meets back up, but in both those years there were "detours" where the systems were out of synch for a while. The current top 25 is unaffected by any of this.

LSU slides to the #3 spot after beating Ohio State. Georgia's win over Hawaii means they only fall one spot as well. Auburn rounds out the top five; four SEC teams, but since the #1 is held by the Big 12, that means next year the top spots might be full of those teams, unless Missouri is beat in the pre-conference season.

Michigan bumps Florida down to #7, and more SEC teams follow completing the top 10.

All-Time Lineal Top 25 as of 1/8/2007

lw  now Team                    rec  relevant results
     1. Missouri               12-2  beat #1 Arkansas
1    2. Arkansas                8-5
2    3. LSU                    12-2 
3    4. Georgia                11-2
4    5. Auburn                  9-4
     6. Michigan                9-4  beat #5 Florida
5    7. Florida                 9-4
6    8. Mississippi State       8-5
7    9. Tennessee              10-4
8   10. Kentucky                8-5
20  11. Southern Cal           11-2  beat #9 Illinois
9   12. Illinois                9-4
10  13. Ohio State             11-2
11  14. Pittsburgh              5-7
12  15. West Virginia          11-2
13  16. Cincinnati             10-3
    17. Wake Forest             9-4  beat #14 Connecticut
14  18. Connecticut             9-4
23  19. Oregon                  9-4  beat #15 South Florida
15  20. South Florida           9-4
16  21. Louisville              6-6
17  22. Rutgers                 8-5 
    23. Texas                  10-3  beat #17 Arizona State
18  24. Arizona State          10-3
19  25. Arizona                 5-7

out:
21      UCLA                    6-7
22      Oregon State            9-4
24      Virginia Tech          11-3
25      Florida State           7-6

Bowl winners Wake Forest and Texas jump into the top 25, while Southern Cal and Oregon gain some ground by beating teams higher on the list than themselves.

Falling out are bowl losers UCLA, Virginia Tech, and Florida State, as well as bowl winner Oregon State

Lineal Top 25 - end of 2007 regular season

The 2007 Lineal Championship game is set: it will take place on January 1st, 2008, at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, when unranked Missouri takes on #1 Arkansas. The winner will finish the 2007 college football season at #1 in the Lineal Top 25, thereby taking the Lineal National Championship. The "other" championship game, that held by the BCS, will pit #2 LSU vs. #10 Ohio State. The winner of that contest will finish either 3rd or 4th, depending on the results of the Arkansas game.

Either way, the BCS national champion and the Lineal national champion will differ for the first time since 2003, when USC held the Lineal title but finished 2nd to LSU in the ESPN/coaches poll. USC did win the AP designation, however, and the Lineal champion has been the AP champion every year since 2001.

If Arkansas prevails, this will be their first Lineal Championship since 1964. Missouri, believe it or not, has never held the Lineal #1 spot, even for a single week! I might do some research later to see what their highest position in the rankings has been.

A Missouri win would also disrupt the glut of SEC teams that has formed at the top of the chart. All of the top eight teams play in bowl games, so there are certain to be some losses by those teams, but if the #1 team isn't dislodged the pack would form again if the Razorbacks get to the conference season undefeated.

As for this week's rankings, there isn't much change. A few teams within the ranks beat a few other teams. You know, minor upsets like #17 Pittsburgh beating #11 West Virginia, but nothing significant.

All-Time Lineal Top 25 as of 12/1/2007

lw  now Team                    rec  relevant results
1    1. Arkansas                8-4
2    2. LSU                    11-2  beat #7 Tennessee
3    3. Georgia                10-2
4    4. Auburn                  8-4
5    5. Florida                 9-3
6    6. Mississippi State       7-5
7    7. Tennessee               9-4  lost to #2 LSU
8    8. Kentucky                7-5
9    9. Illinois                9-3
10  10. Ohio State             11-1
17  11. Pittsburgh              5-7  beat #11 West Virginia
11  12. West Virginia          10-2  lost to #17 Pitt
12  13. Cincinnati              9-3
13  14. Connecticut             9-3
14  15. South Florida           9-3
15  16. Louisville              6-6  beat #16 Rutgers
16  17. Rutgers                 7-5  lost to #15 Louisville
22  18. Arizona State          10-2  beat #18 Arizona
18  19. Arizona                 5-7  lost to #22 Arizona State
21  20. Southern Cal           10-2  beat #19 UCLA
19  21. UCLA                    6-6  lost to #21 Southern Cal
    22. Oregon State            8-4  beat #20 Oregon
20  23. Oregon                  8-4  lost to Oregon State
23  24. Virginia Tech          11-2
24  25. Florida State           7-5

out:
25      Maryland                6-6

Lineal Top 25 - week 13 - no #1 vs. #2 :(

Well, it's not going to happen this year. The anticipated #1 vs. #2 matchup of LSU and Georgia didn't happen, falling though due to LSU's loss to new #1 champion Arkansas Razorbacks. Even if LSU had previaled, though, Tennessee's win over Kentucky thwarted Georgia's efforts to make the SEC championship game, where the 1 vs. 2 matchup could have occurred.

The games that spoiled the matchup went to triple and quadruple overtime. It came so close to happening! But now it can't until next year. We'll have to settle for next week's #15 Louisville vs. #16 Rutgers matchup...

New champion Arkansas just entered the Lineal Top 25 for the first time this season at #5, after beating Mississippi State. One week later, and they are the all-time college football Lineal champion, one game away from ending the year on top. It's also going to be the first year since 2000 when the end-of-year Lineal champion is not also the AP national champion.

 

All-Time Lineal Top 25 as of 11/25/2007

lw  now Team                    rec  relevant results
5    1. Arkansas                8-4  beat #1 LSU
1    2. LSU                    10-2  lost to #5 Arkansas
2    3. Georgia                10-2
3    4. Auburn                  8-4
4    5. Florida                 9-3  beat #21 FSU
6    6. Mississippi State       7-5
     7. Tennessee               9-3  beat #7 Kentucky
7    8. Kentucky                7-5  lost to Tennessee
8    9. Illinois                9-3
9   10. Ohio State             11-1
10  11. West Virginia          10-1  beat #12 Connecticut
11  12. Cincinnati              9-3
12  13. Connecticut             9-3  lost to #10 West Virginia
13  14. South Florida           9-3  beat #16 Pittsburgh
14  15. Louisville              5-6
15  16. Rutgers                 7-4
16  17. Pittsburgh              4-7  lost to #13 South Florida
17  18. Arizona                 5-6
    19. UCLA                    6-5  beat #18 Oregon
18  20. Oregon                  8-3  lost to UCLA
24  21. Southern Cal            9-2  beat #19 Arizona State
19  22. Arizona State           9-2  lost to #24 Southern Cal
20  23. Virginia Tech          10-2
21  24. Florida State           7-5  lost to #4 Florida
22  25. Maryland                6-6

dropped out:
23      Boston College         10-2
25      Navy                    7-4

Lineal Top 25 - week 12

Two weeks away from #1 vs. #2...if Tennessee loses, and Georgia and LSU win. If that happens, then the all-time champions of college football, Georgia and LSU, will battle it out for the Lineal crown. I'm sure ESPN GameDay will be there if that comes to pass. And after #1 vs. #2, what reason will there be to play the "BCS title game" in January? Missouri and Kansas don't even make the Lineal Top 25, so that game will be rather anti-climactic, wouldn't you say?

All-Time Lineal Top 25 as of 11/18/2007

lw  now Team                    rec  relevant results
1    1. LSU                   (10-1)
2    2. Georgia                (9-2)
3    3. Auburn                 (7-4)
4    4. Florida                (8-3)
     5. Arkansas               (7-4) beat Miss. St
5    6. Mississippi State      (6-5) lost to Arkansas
6    7. Kentucky               (7-4)
7    8. Illinois               (9-3)
8    9. Ohio State            (11-1)
11  10. West Virginia          (9-1) beat Cincinnati
9   11. Cincinnati             (8-3) lost to West Virginia
10  12. Connecticut            (9-2)
    13. South Florida          (8-3) beat Louisville
12  14. Louisville             (5-6) lost to South Florida
    15. Rutgers                (7-4) beat Pitt
13  16. Pittsburgh             (4-6) lost to Rutgers
    17. Arizona                (5-6) beat Oregon
14  18. Oregon                 (8-2) lost to Arizona
15  19. Arizona State          (9-1)
16  20. Virginia Tech          (9-2)
17  21. Florida State          (7-4) beat Maryland
18  22. Maryland               (5-6) lost to Florida State
19  23. Boston College         (9-2)
20  24. Southern Cal           (8-2)
21  25. Navy                   (7-4)

dropped out:
22      Air Force              (9-3)
23      Notre Dame             (2-9)
24      California             (6-5)
25      Washington State       (4-6)

Lineal Top 25 - week 11

I'm much more timely with the Lineal Top 25 this week.

#3 Georgia beat #2 Auburn to move into the #2 spot, setting up a potential #1 vs. #2 matchup in the SEC title game, if Georgia and LSU win out and Tennessee loses. LSU can still lost and make the title game, but they wouldn't be the Lineal champion if that happens.

Lineal Top 25 as of 11/11/2007

lw  now Team                    rec  relevant results
1    1. LSU                    (9-1)
3    2. Georgia                (8-2) beat #2 Auburn
2    3. Auburn                 (7-4) lost to #3 Georgia
4    4. Florida                (7-3)
5    5. Mississippi State      (6-4)
6    6. Kentucky               (7-3)
     7. Illinois               (8-3) beat #7 Ohio State
7    8. Ohio State            (10-1) lost to Illinois
11   9. Cincinnati             (8-2) beat #8 Connecticut
8   10. Connecticut            (8-2) lost to #11 Cincinnati
    12. West Virginia          (8-1) beat #9 Louisville
9   11. Louisville             (5-4) lost to West Virginia
10  13. Pittsburgh             (4-5)
12  14. Oregon                 (8-1)
13  15. Arizona State          (9-1) beat #22 UCLA
    16. Virginia Tech          (8-2) beat #14 Florida State
14  17. Florida State          (6-4) lost to Virginia Tech
    18. Maryland               (5-5) beat #15 Boston College
15  19. Boston College         (8-2) lost to Maryland
16  20. Southern Cal           (8-2) beat #19 California
17  21. Navy                   (6-4)
    22. Air Force              (8-3) beat #18 Notre Dame
18  23. Notre Dame             (1-9)
19  24. California             (6-4) lost to #16 Southern Cal
20  25. Washington State       (4-6)

out:
21      Arizona                (4-6)
22      UCLA                   (5-5) lost to #13 Arizona State
23      Oregon State           (6-4)
24      Oklahoma               (9-1)
25      Missouri               (9-1)

Illinois, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Maryland, and Air Force push the unlucky last five out of the rankings. Notre Dame holds on at #23, in the only Top 25 they've been a part of this year.

Lineal Top 25 - overdue week 10

Note: whoops! Forgot to publish last week's Lineal Top 25 - here it is. This week's (week 11) is coming soon.

No team in the top ten of the Lineal Top 25 lost this week, so the top ten stays exactly the same. The second half of the chart showed some movement with Oregon moving ahead of ASU, and Florida State, Navy, California, and Arizona entering.

If Georgia can beat Auburn next week they'll move up to #2; if they make it to the SEC championship game, as I expect, they'll meet LSU in a #1 vs. #2 Lineal Championship Showdown. Don't get too excited just yet, but I think it's likely to happen.

lw  now Team                    rec  relevant results
1    1. LSU                    (8-1)
2    2. Auburn                 (7-3)
3    3. Georgia                (7-2)
4    4. Florida                (6-3)
5    5. Mississippi State      (5-4)
6    6. Kentucky               (6-3)
7    7. Ohio State             (10-0)
8    8. Connecticut            (8-1)
9    9. Louisville             (5-4)
10  10. Pittsburgh             (4-5)
11  11. Cincinnati             (7-2)
14  12. Oregon                 (8-1) beat Arizona State
12  13. Arizona State          (8-1) lost to Oregon
    14. Florida State          (6-3) beat Boston College
13  15. Boston College         (8-1) lost to Florida State
15  16. Southern Cal           (6-2) beat Oregon State
    17. Navy                   (5-4) beat Notre Dame
16  18. Notre Dame             (1-8) lost to Navy
    19. California             (6-3) beat Washington State
17  20. Washington State       (3-6) lost to California
    21. Arizona                (4-6) beat UCLA
18  22. UCLA                   (5-4) lost to Arizona
19  23. Oregon State           (5-4) lost to Southern Cal
20  24. Oklahoma               (8-1)
21  25. Missouri               (8-1)

out:
22      Kansas                 (8-0)
23      North Carolina State   (3-5)
24      Virginia               (7-2)
25      Clemson                (6-2)

Kansas, NC State, Virginia, and Clemson all had impressive wins, and all fall out of the top 25. Such is life in the dog-eat-dog world of the Lineal Top 25.

Lineal Top 25 - week 9

For your further amusement, the latest Lineal top 25. SEC teams are starting to dominate the top spots, and it's only going to get worse until the bowl season.

lw  now Team                    rec  relevant results
1    1. LSU                    (7-1)
2    2. Auburn                 (6-3)
     3. Georgia                (6-2) beat #3 Florida
3    4. Florida                (5-3) lost to Georgia
     5. Mississippi State      (5-4) beat #4 Kentucky
4    6. Kentucky               (6-3) lost to Miss. St.
5    7. Ohio State             (9-0)
6    8. Connecticut            (7-1) beat #22 South Florida
7    9. Louisville             (5-4) beat #8 Pittsburgh
8   10. Pittsburgh             (3-5) lost to #7 Louisville
9   11. Cincinnati             (6-2)
10  12. Arizona State          (8-0)
11  13. Boston College         (8-0)
    14. Oregon                 (7-1) beat #12 Southern Cal
12  15. Southern Cal           (6-2) lost to Oregon
13  16. Notre Dame             (1-7)
    17. Washington State       (3-5) beat #14 UCLA
14  18. UCLA                   (5-3) lost to Washington State
15  19. Oregon State           (5-3)
16  20. Oklahoma               (7-1)
17  21. Missouri               (7-1)
18  22. Kansas                 (8-0)
    23. North Carolina State   (3-5) beat #19 Virginia
19  24. Virginia               (7-2) lost to NC State
    25. Clemson                (6-2) beat #20 Maryland

out:
20      Maryland               (4-4)
21      Rutgers                (5-3)
22      South Florida          (6-2)
23      Vanderbilt             (5-3)
24      South Carolina         (6-3)
25      Alabama                (6-2)

The odds of a #1 vs. #2 matchup aren't great, but if Georgia beats Auburn on Nov. 10 and makes it to the SEC final against LSU, it'll happen.

Lineal Top 25 - #3 LSU beats #1 Auburn

Quite a week for the Lineal Top 25; the matchups here were even more important than they were for the "real" top 25. First and foremost, there is a new champion: LSU, last week's #3, defeated #1 Auburn to take over the college football title. Not only that, but #4 Florida beat #2 Kentucky and takes over the #3 spot. Florida held the title before losing to Auburn earlier this season.

lw  now Team                    rec  relevant results
3    1. LSU                    (7-1) beat #1 Auburn 30-24
1    2. Auburn                 (5-3) lost to #3 LSU 30-24
4    3. Florida                (5-2) beat #2 Kentucky 45-37
2    4. Kentucky               (6-2) lost to #4 Florida 45-37
5    5. Ohio State             (8-0)
     6. Connecticut            (6-1) beat #6 Louisville 21-17
6    7. Louisville             (4-4) lost to Connecticut 21-17
     8. Pittsburgh             (3-4) beat #7 Cincinnati 24-17
7    9. Cincinnati             (6-2) lost to Pittsburgh 24-17
8   10. Arizona State          (7-0)
9   11. Boston College         (7-0)
    12. Southern Cal           (6-1) beat #10 Notre Dame 38-0
10  13. Notre Dame             (1-7) lost to Southern Cal 38-0
11  14. UCLA                   (5-2)
12  15. Oregon State           (4-3)
13  16. Oklahoma               (7-1)
14  17. Missouri               (6-1)
15  18. Kansas                 (7-0) 
    19. Virginia               (7-1) beat #16 Maryland 18-17
16  20. Maryland               (4-3) lost to Virginia 18-17
17  21. Rutgers                (5-2) beat #18 South Florida 30-27
18  22. South Florida          (6-1) lost to #18 Rutgers 30-27
    23. Vanderbilt             (4-3) beat #19 South Carolina 17-6
19  24. South Carolina         (6-2) lost to Vanderbilt 17-6
    25. Alabama                (5-2) beat #20 Tennessee 41-17

out:
20      Tennessee              (4-3)
21      Mississippi State      (4-4)
22      Kansas State           (4-3)
23      California             (5-2)
24      North Carolina         (2-5)
25      Georgia Tech           (5-3)

There was another intra-top 25 game this weekend, but it had no effect on the standings! Rutgers was already one spot ahead of South Florida before they beat them on Thursday; both teams slide down due to other teams entering the ranks.

Connecticut and Pittsburgh enter at 6 and 8, creating a glut of Big East teams to match the SEC glut at the top. Southern Cal, who left the poll a few weeks ago for the first time in years, re-enters with a win over Notre Dame. Their stay will be much shorter this time, even if they keep winning.

Virginia, Vanderbilt, and Alabama round out the new teams. This week is somewhat unusual in that most of the teams that fall out of the top 25 actually lost games!

Lineal Top 25 - week 7 - no #1 vs. #2 matchup :(

Week 7 Lineal Top 25 (defined here)

Kentucky's upset of LSU ruined the chance for a #1 vs. #2 showdown in the all-time college football lineal standings. Auburn and Kentucky don't play so unless there's some shuffling it won't happen. The SEC is so volatile that there are several different scenarios that could lead to it, but for now we'll just have to enjoy next week's #1 vs. #3 game.

Lineal (winner moves ahead of loser) rankings:
1    1. Auburn                      (5-2)
     2. Kentucky                    (6-1)
2    3. LSU                         (6-1)
3    4. Florida                     (4-2)
4    5. Ohio State                  (7-0)
     6. Louisville                  (4-3)
5    7. Cincinnati                  (6-1)
6    8. Arizona State               (7-0)
     9. Boston College              (7-0)
7   10. Notre Dame                  (1-6)
8   11. UCLA                        (4-2)
9   12. Oregon State                (4-3)
22  13. Oklahoma                    (6-1)
10  14. Missouri                    (6-1)
11  15. Kansas                      (6-0)
12  16. Maryland                    (4-2)
13  17. Rutgers                     (4-2)
14  18. South Florida               (6-0)
15  19. South Carolina              (6-1)
    20. Tennessee                   (4-2)
16  21. Mississippi State           (4-3)
17  22. Kansas State                (4-2)
18  23. California                  (5-1)
19  24. North Carolina              (2-5)
24  25. Georgia Tech                (4-3)

The top four teams are now from the SEC; this is what happens normally during conference play. In recent years the #1 team has gone on long winning streaks (USC, Ohio State) that prevented this.

Boston College moves into #9 by beating Notre Dame, putting 3 of the 6 undefeated teams in the Lineal top 10, and 5 of 6 in the top 25. There are also 2 teams with losing records in the top 25.

Oklahoma jumps from #22 to #13 for beating Missouri. Georgia Tech beats #20 Miami, which allows them to hold on to their ranking for one more week. Miami, Texas A&M, Texas, and Virginia Tech fall off the bottom of the rankings.

Lineal Top 25 - #1 vs. #2 upcoming?

Week 6 Lineal Top 25 (defined here)

1    1. Auburn                      (4-2)
     2. LSU                         (6-0)
2    3. Florida                     (4-2)
3    4. Ohio State                  (6-0)
4    5. Cincinnati                  (6-0)
5    6. Arizona State               (6-0)
     7. Notre Dame                  (1-5)
6    8. UCLA                        (4-2)
7    9. Oregon State                (3-3)
8   10. Missouri                    (6-0)
9   11. Kansas                      (5-0)
10  12. Maryland                    (4-2)
11  13. Rutgers                     (3-2)
12  14. South Florida               (5-0)
13  15. South Carolina              (5-1)
14  16. Mississippi State           (4-2)
15  17. Kansas State                (3-2)
16  18. California                  (5-0)
    19. North Carolina              (2-4)
17  20. Miami                       (4-2)
18  21. Texas A&M                   (5-1)
    22. Oklahoma                    (5-1)
19  23. Texas                       (4-2)
20  24. Georgia Tech                (3-3)
    25. Virginia Tech               (5-1)

out:
21  Clemson                     (4-2)
22  Florida State               (3-1)
23  Nevada                      (2-2)
24  UNLV                        (2-2)
25  Utah                        (2-3)

LSU beats Florida and moves into the #2 spot. LSU was pushed out of the Lineal top 25 on week 2, and their re-entry sets up a possible #1 vs. #2 match in a couple of weeks!

This is almost certainly the only top 25 in which you can find 1-5 Notre Dame! The Fighting Irish take over the #7 spot by beating UCLA; they were most recently on the list at the end of 2006. North Carolina (2-4) jumps in at #19 by beating Miami. I don't know the last time they were in the Lineal Top 25, but it's probably been a few years. I'd have to run some numbers to figure that out and I'm lazy right now.

Virginia Tech beats Clemson and squeeks in at #25. They'll be gone next week almost certainly. Oklahoma, however, has a chance to stay in, as they play #10 Missouri on October 13.

In a couple of intra-Lineal-top-25 contests, the higher ranked team won so no additional movement was caused. Cincinnati defeated Rutgers, and Kansas beat Kansas State. Check back next week to see if there's going to be a #1 vs. #2 showdown; it'll happen if Auburn and LSU both win this coming week.

Lineal Top 25 - A New Heavyweight Champion!

The Lineal Top 25 just got a bit more exciting—the #1 team, i.e., the champion or belt holder, if you will, was defeated this weekend when Auburn beat Florida.

This is the first change in the #1 spot since last year's national championship game when Florida beat Ohio State. OSU took it from Texas, who took it from USC, who had held it for over two years previous to that.

Lineal Top 25

11   1. Auburn                      (3-2)
1    2. Florida                     (4-1)
2    3. Ohio State                  (5-0)
3    4. Cincinnati                  (5-0)
4    5. Arizona State               (5-0)
21   6. UCLA                        (4-1)
5    7. Oregon State                (2-3)
6    8. Missouri                    (5-0)
7    9. Kansas                      (4-0)
    10. Maryland                    (3-2)
8   11. Rutgers                     (3-1)
9   12. South Florida               (4-0)
    13. South Carolina              (4-1)
10  14. Mississippi State           (3-2)
12  15. Kansas State                (3-1)
13  16. California                  (5-0)
14  17. Miami                       (4-1)
15  18. Texas A&M                   (4-1)
16  19. Texas                       (4-1)
    20. Georgia Tech                (3-2)
17  21. Clemson                     (4-1)
18  22. Florida State               (3-1)
    23. Nevada                      (2-2)
19  24. UNLV                        (2-2)
20  25. Utah                        (2-3)

Despite all last week's upsets, only the Florida game really affects things in the Lineal rankings. Teams that lose only fall at most an extra spot, after all. UCLA vaults into the top 10 for beating Oregon State, of all teams. Maryland did benefit quite a bit by upsetting Rutgers. South Florida pulled off a big upset, and fell three spots. So you see, it doesn't always pay to move higher in the rankings—once you're there, you can't move up again unless you beat one of the (even fewer) teams above!

As usual, several teams get pushed out to make room for the newcomers, whether or not they lost. Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Washington, and USC all fall out. For USC, it's been about a season and a half since they held the title and the first time they've dropped out since.

The rest of the year should be interesting. Florida was due for a challenge at LSU, which might have put the title into another holding pattern. But now with Auburn carrying the baton, it might shuffle between SEC teams for the remainder of the year, and who knows where it will end up!

Lineal Top 25 - Week IV

You know, it has occurred to me that the Lineal Top 25 (explanation: here) is in some ways the ALL-TIME RANKINGS, since it is based on all results from the inception of college football, and in other ways is the ultimate "What Have You Done For Me Lately?" ranking system, since all past losses are forgotten and only your most recent win or loss matters.

But I digress. Here are the latest Lineal rankings:

1    1. Florida                     (4-0)
2    2. Ohio State                  (4-0)
3    3. Cincinnati                  (4-0)
     4. Arizona State               (4-0)
4    5. Oregon State                (2-2)
5    6. Missouri                    (4-0)
6    7. Kansas                      (4-0)
7    8. Rutgers                     (3-0)
8    9. South Florida               (3-0)
9   10. Mississippi State           (3-1)
10  11. Auburn                      (2-2)
11  12. Kansas State                (2-1)
12  13. California                  (4-0)
    14. Miami                       (3-1)
13  15. Texas A&M                   (3-1)
14  16. Texas                       (4-0)
15  17. Clemson                     (4-0)
16  18. Florida State               (3-1)
    19. UNLV                        (2-2)
17  20. Utah                        (1-3)
18  21. UCLA                        (3-1)
19  22. Southern California         (3-0)
    23. Oklahoma State              (2-2)
20  24. Texas Tech                  (3-1)
21  25. Washington                  (2-2)

Pushed out this week were Boise State, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Georgia. The previous #1 teams on this list are #2 Ohio State, #16 Texas, and #22 Southern Cal.

My various rating systems

I update three different rating systems on this site, which may (should?) cause some confusion. So this is a short explanation of each.

SportsRatings College Football Top 25

This is a subjective ranking of the top 25 teams in the nation. Generally speaking this would be how I would vote in the AP poll, based on which teams I think are the best and/or have accomplished the most during the season so far. That said, I do have a few rules (I should call them 'guidelines' since there can be exceptions) I try to follow, being:

- If Team A beats Team B and has an equal or better record, Team A should always be ahead of Team B, and

- New teams enter the Top 25 only by beating a Top 25 team, but

- Before any team with N+2 losses can stay in the Top 25, all teams with N losses should already be in the Top 25.

- I can break any of these rules if I strongly feel it is warranted, since this is a subjective ranking. The rules are there to keep it from being too subjective.

SportsRatings College Football Power Rating

This is a computerized, therefore algorithm-based rating system of my creation. Therefore it is fully objective, that is, there is no chance that a team I like better than another, or who has a better football reputation than another, or who I happened to watch on Saturday, gets any favoritism. Another upside of power ratings is all available data can be taken into consideration. The downside of any power rating is of course, only the available data can be used. In my case, this includes the scores of all Division I-A games, and location. No injury analysis, comparison of offensive lines and safeties, the Quarterback's mindset, etc.

To comlicate matters I use two different algorithms and combine them to make the final rating. One is a "pure points" or predictive element, the other a win/loss analysis. Jeff Sagarin's ratings use a similar two-component method; my points system is similar to his, while my win/loss element is quite different. Over the season I'll see how they compare as I've never combined the two rankings into one before.

The reason I use 2 ratings, and I suspect Sagarin came to the same conclusion earlier, is that neither alone sufficiently captures a team's quality. Pure points methods give the best indication of how "powerful" a team is, but if these teams lose, there isn't much penalty. Likewise, to rank by win/loss alone and ignore point spread gives a good indication of who has done well, but doesn't give as good of a predictive element, and teams that get lucky and win close games tend to be ranked too high. By combining the two it rewards teams for winning the close games, and also rewards teams that blow out opponents, which I think makes sense.

The win/loss component has a rating that generally increases over the season, gaining importance in the combined, final rating as weeks go by. This reflects the fact that, the later it is in the season, the more you can tell by looking at a team's record and who they played. Early on, until about the middle of the season, looking at scores can tell you a lot more than the record. Over time this evens out. I will start posting both elements of the rating this week.

Lineal Top 25

Also called "Linear" or "Daisy-Chain" sometimes, a Lineal ranking is one where the winner of a game replaces the loser in the rankings. Like in boxing, when the title holder is defeated, the winner becomes the title holder. The previous title holder falls to #2. The works the same for the entire top 25; if the #10 team is defeated by the #20 team, #20 jumps to #10 and 10 falls to 11.

I have a longer explanation of this from a few weeks ago. I don't put my stamp on this "ranking system" because it's not original to me, it's a simple idea that's been around a long time, and it's going to be the same for anyone who calculates it. The end result is more for amusement than a serious attempt at ranking the best teams.

Lineal top 25 - week 3

For background on the Lineal (linear) Top 25, go here.

Week 3 Lineal Top 25

1    1. Florida                     (3-0)
2    2. Ohio State                  (3-0)
3    3. Cincinnati                  (3-0)
4    4. Oregon State                (2-1)
5    5. Missouri                    (3-0)
6    6. Kansas                      (3-0)
7    7. Rutgers                     (3-0)
8    8. South Florida               (2-0)
     9. Mississippi State           (2-1)
9   10. Auburn                      (1-2)
10  11. Kansas State                (2-1)
11  12. California                  (3-0)
12  13. Texas A&M                   (3-0)
13  14. Texas                       (3-0)
14  15. Clemson                     (3-0)
15  16. Florida State               (2-1)
    17. Utah                        (1-2)
16  18. UCLA                        (2-1)
17  19. Southern California         (2-0)
18  20. Texas Tech                  (3-0)
19  21. Washington                  (2-1)
20  22. Boise State                 (2-1)
21  23. Oklahoma                    (3-0)
22  24. South Carolina              (3-0)
23  25. Georgia                     (2-1)

out:

24      Oklahoma State              (1-2)
25      Nebraska                    (2-1)

Not much new this week; pretty much everyone at the top won. Mississippi State jumps in by beating Auburn. The way Auburn's playing, a lot of SEC teams are going to be on this list soon! Utah bullies in at #17 by smearing UCLA. Other than that, no one else enters. Washington's loss to Ohio State doesn't change anyone's rank.

Oklahoma State and Nebraska both lose, but their victors don't gain anything. USC was already ahead of Nebraska, and Troy gets pushed out of the list before they can even be in it. So it's still last year's national championship game teams at #1 and #2, and Cincinnati's looking so good it might be a while before we see any change in the top 3.

Lineal top 25 - week two

For an explanation of what the  "Lineal Top 25" is, see this post.

1    1. Florida                     (2-0)
2    2. Ohio State                  (2-0)
     3. Cincinnati                  (2-0)
3    4. Oregon State                (1-1)
4    5. Missouri                    (2-0)
5    6. Kansas                      (2-0)
6    7. Rutgers                     (2-0)
     8. South Florida               (2-0)
7    9. Auburn                      (1-1)
8   10. Kansas State                (1-1)
9   11. California                  (2-0)
10  12. Texas A&M                   (2-0)
11  13. Texas                       (2-0)
12  14. Clemson                     (2-0)
13  15. Florida State               (1-1)
14  16. UCLA                        (2-0)
15  17. Southern California         (1-0)
16  18. Texas Tech                  (2-0)
    19. Washington                  (2-0)
17  20. Boise State                 (1-1)
18  21. Oklahoma                    (2-0)
    22. South Carolina              (2-0)
19  23. Georgia                     (1-1)
20  24. Oklahoma State              (1-1)
21  25. Nebraska                    (2-0)

out
22      Appalachian State           (2-0)
23      Michigan                    (0-2)
24      Louisiana State             (2-0)
25      Georgia Tech                (2-0)

No changes in the "linear" rankings other than new teams coming in—there was no interplay among the top 25 this week. But of course the new teams push the others down, and so with four teams entering, four must leave, and in this case it unfortunately includes Appalachian State, the only Division I-AA (*ahem*, I mean FCB) team in the list. Despite crushing Lenoir-Rhyne 48-7, their short stay is over. Also falling out is their victim, Michigan, so Oregon doesn't get a chance to be in the lower reaches. LSU and Georgia Tech had blowout wins this week, but it can't save them. To get back in, they have to beat someone currently on the list.

Cincinnati is the big debut, beating Oregon State and jumping in at #3. Oregon State is ranked courtesy of Texas' #1 ranking at the end of 2005. Oregon State beat Missouri, who had beaten Kansas, who beat Kansas State who beat Texas A&M who beat Texas, who is now down to #13.

Another Big East debut is South Florida after beating Auburn. Just last week Auburn shot up to #7 for beating Kansas State. USF clashes with Cincinnati later in the season in what will be an important game in these rankings if not in the Big East itself!

Note how the entire top ten owes its existence to Texas; Ohio State at #2 got there by beating Texas, and Florida took the top spot in the national championship game last year. Of course this is the nature of the ranking; every team above #17 is there because of USC, and within a few years likely every team in the Top 25 will be traced back to a victory over Florida.

Washington's win over Boise and South Carolina's over Georgia cause the only other shifts in the list. So far this year every team entering the rankings has been undefeated, and therefore look "legit", but legitimacy as a top 25 holds no sway here. Later in the year there will be teams with losing records in the top 25, possibly at #1. Remember, there doesn't have to be a huge upset for this to happen—Florida could lose to another good team, who might lose to a so-so team, who might lose to a very bad team. This has happened a lot in the past and will continue to happen.

The Lineal rankings care most about what happened last week, and then the week before that, and so in, in order. The best team is whoever won most recently, and all past transgressions and bad games are forgiven. Michigan, for example, could lose the rest of their games up until Ohio State, and if OSU and Florida haven't lost, Michigan could jump to #2 with an upset. There are probably dozens if not hundreds of scenarios (most of them extremely unlikely) that could lead to them becoming #1, but what's the point in tracing the traveling salesman's path into the future? The Lineal ranking is a fun exercise more than an actual attempt to organize teams based on quality. It also gives the "little guy" some hope, as almost any team in the country can aspire, with some luck, to become #1, even if just for one week.

Lineal Top 25 - Week 1

The Lineal Top 25 looks pretty good this year so far, in that last year's champion is the current top dog. This isn't always the case; in fact, often the 'national champion' doesn't end up in the lineal top 25 at all. But for quite a while now (since USC's run of titles) the #1 team has been the previous year's champ or the current AP #1, as USC passed the top spot to Texas, then Ohio State, and now Florida.

The rest of the list is a hodgepodge of top teams and the teams who beat them, and the teams who beat *them*, and so on.

 1   1. Florida                     (1-0)
 2   2. Ohio State                  (1-0)
 3   3. Oregon State                (1-0)
 4   4. Missouri                    (1-0)
 5   5. Kansas                      (1-0)
 6   6. Rutgers                     (1-0)
18   7. Auburn                      (1-0)
 7   8. Kansas State                (0-1)
 8   9. California                  (1-0)
 9  10. Texas A&M                   (1-0)
10  11. Texas                       (1-0)
    12. Clemson                     (1-0)
11  13. Florida State               (0-1)
12  14. UCLA                        (1-0)
13  15. Southern California         (1-0)
14  16. Texas Tech                  (1-0)
15  17. Boise State                 (1-0)
16  18. Oklahoma                    (1-0)
25  19. Georgia                     (1-0)
17  20. Oklahoma State              (0-1)
19  21. Nebraska                    (1-0)
    22. Appalachian State           (1-0)
20  23. Michigan                    (0-1)
21  24. Louisiana State             (1-0)
    25. Georgia Tech                (1-0)

out: #22 Notre Dame, #23 Wisconsin, #24 Penn State

Note the big movers in the ranks this week are Auburn, who jumps from #18 to #7 for narrowly beating a Kansas State team they were heavily favored over. Why was Kansas State in the top ten? Well last year they beat a highly-ranked Texas squad; that also explains Kansas (who beat K State) at #5.

Only one other intra-ranking contest was played: Georgia hops from 25 to 19, just ahead of Oklahoma State, whom they beat 35-14 saturday. Without this win Georgia would have slid off the edge of the rankings, which is the fate that befell Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Penn State, the latter two despite posting big wins. The Lineal Top 25 doesn't care if you win--you have to beat a higher ranked team to stay alive!

Those three teams were pushed out because three other teams entered the rankings by beating currently listed teams: Georgia Tech beat Notre Dame; Clemson beat FSU last night; and of course, Appalachian State beat then-number-20 Michigan.

Appalachian State presents a conundrum for the Lineal Top 25: are Division I-AA teams allowed? It's a rule-tester for sure. There usually isn't a problem with I-AA teams being included, since unless they end up at #1 they will slide off eventually. Theoretically other I-AA teams that beat them should enter the rankings as well; if a I-AA became the #1 team, the entire top 25 could be filled with I-AA teams. But that's the only possible problem, and even in that case, there's enough interplay between the divisions that it would eventually correct itself. It's akin to a light heavyweight beating the heavyweight champ: if you beat the man, you *are* the man. I'm going to track App. State as a legit top 25 team here, though they  won't last long since they don't play any more I-A opponents.

Historical Note: this isn't Appalachian State's first time in the Lineal Top 25; in fact they were as high as #2 just a few years ago! In 2000, Appalachian State beat Wake Forest, then the #2 lineal team, in a minor intra-division upset. That win wasn't shocking, as the Mountaineers have beaten the Demon Deacons 5 times since 1989. The more interesting question is, how was mediocre Wake Forest at #2? Well, Texas ended the 1998 season at #1 (for beating Texas A&M, who had beaten the juggernaut Nebraska team of that era). Texas lost their season opener to North Carolina State, who got pushed down to #2 by losing to FSU. Wake Forest beat NC State to take the #2 spot...but we're not there yet. First a slew of ACC teams beat Wake and crowded the top 10, but Wake beat Georgia Tech near the end of the 1999 season to re-claim the #2 spot. This setup Appalachian State's early 2000 win over Wake and taking the #2 spot.

From there, all the teams that beat Appalachian State were eventually cleared out, pushed down by the cumulative teams that beat Florida State, and the rankings became purely Division I-A again within a few years. But someday a Division I-AA team will take the #1 spot. The great thing about the lineal rankings is you don't necessarily have to be a very good team to be #1 -- you just need a scheduling fluke and a bit of luck.

This time around, though, Appalachian State completely deserves their ranking.

Lineal Top 25 - preseason

The "Lineal" champion, sometimes erroneously called "linear" champion, is an idea borrowed from boxing, where a contender has to beat the champ to become the champ; until the champion loses, he's still the champ. Therefore, starting with an arbitrary, hopefully universally-recognized champ (such as John Sullivan in the 1880s), one can trace a lineage to the present day where "the man who beats the man" becomes the next champion.

This idea has been applied to college football, and although it's certainly less relevant in that context (after all, if the top team is upset by a mediocre team, that team rarely would be considered the #1 team), it actually works out better in practice than in boxing, at least in terms of unbroken lineage. Many times in boxing a champion retires; in these cases, another fighter must somehow be designated the lineal champ so the line can start again (most recently, Lennox Lewis' retirement has thrown the heavyweight lineal crown into disarray for several years now).

And while many boxers come out of retirement to get beaten and keep the string unbroken, college football teams almost always play another year and eventually get defeated, so this isn't a big problem with the college football lineal title. Several web sites have traced the lineal champion to the present day, and one (collegefootballbelt.com ) devotes a feature to each week's championship game, where the "belt" might be passed.

The idea of the lineal champion can be extended beyond the first spot as well. Using the same basic rule used to determine the champ, and using data back to the first year of college football (1869), we can determine the Lineal Top 25.

This is how the College Football Lineal Top 25 looked at the end of last year:

 1. Florida                     (13-1)
 2. Ohio State                  (12-1)
 3. Oregon State                (10-4)
 4. Missouri                    ( 8-5)
 5. Kansas                      ( 6-6)
 6. Rutgers                     (11-2)
 7. Kansas State                ( 7-6)
 8. California                  (10-3)
 9. Texas A&M                   ( 9-4)
10. Texas                       (10-3)
11. Florida State               ( 7-6)
12. UCLA                        ( 7-6)
13. Southern California         (11-2)
14. Texas Tech                  ( 8-5)
15. Boise State                 (13-0)
16. Oklahoma                    (11-3)
17. Oklahoma State              ( 7-6)
18. Auburn                      (11-2)
19. Nebraska                    ( 9-5)
20. Michigan                    (11-2)
21. Louisiana State             (11-2)
22. Notre Dame                  (10-3)
23. Wisconsin                   (12-1)
24. Penn State                  ( 9-4)
25. Georgia                     ( 9-4)

Because the lineal rankings carry over to the next year uninterrupted, this is also the pre-season 2007 Lineal Top 25.

I'll be updating the Lineal Top 25 here each week, and maybe adding a little historical detail along the way about how it's looked at various times in the past. Unsurprisingly, it doesn't act much like a normal Top 25 - the teams begin to resemble crabs trying to get out of a bucket: they slide down the rankings as teams beat the teams ahead of them, and the only way to avoid falling out of the "poll" is to beat a team ahead of them. Some very good, even undefeated teams fall out, while an upset can send a 4-6 team to near the top (sometimes, to the top) of the ranks.

Tomorrow I'll cover week one, wherein Appalachian State jumps into the Lineal Top 25...and it's not their first, nor highest, ranking.