College Football

Week 9 Preview, Odds, & Predictions: Oregon to the Rose Bowl?

Another big week, with six undefeated teams in action and Oregon battling USC:

1. #14 USC (6-1) at #12 Oregon (6-1)
   Vegas line/odds: USC by 3
   Strength Power Rating: Oregon 25, USC 20
   % of game comparisons: Oregon 59%
   Yardage-to-score projection: USC 20, Oregon 16
   Yards per-attempt extrapolation: USC 24, Oregon 17
   Analysis: Oregon is just as good as USC, and right now they deserve to be ahead in the polls as I've noted before. The Ducks are even at home. All of this should make Oregon the favorite but it hasn't. Part of this is the USC mystique, and part of this is the reality that the Trojans don't lose the big games. They might drop a conference game each year, but never to a team that will have the tiebreaker over them for the Rose Bowl. I still think the Ducks could end up in the Rose Bowl, since I suspect USC will fall to one of their last four opponents. But barring that, this is for the Pac-10 title, and Pete Carroll always seems to have his team ready.
   Prediction: USC 20, Oregon 13
    
2. #2 Texas (7-0) at #13 Oklahoma State (6-1)
   Vegas line/odds: Texas by 9 1/2
   Strength Power Rating: Texas 36, Oklahoma State 19
   % of game comparisons: Texas 79.6%
   Yardage-to-score projection: Texas 31, Oklahoma State 7
   Yards per-attempt extrapolation: Texas 24, Oklahoma State 17
   Analysis: This really shouldn't be a close game. Not that Texas can't play a bad game—they have. But the end result has always been pretty strong even if it looked ugly; no one else beat Oklahoma even by 3 points. But Oklahoma State has been overrated since beating Georgia, and since then they've lost 2/3 of their star offensive trio, with Kendall Hunter slowed by injury and Dez Bryant ruled ineligible for talking to Deion Sanders. Oklahoma State is banking their season on this game but the Longhorns won't take this game for granted.
   Prediction: Texas 31, Oklahoma State 17
    
3. #1 Florida (7-0) vs. Georgia (4-3)
   Vegas line/odds: Florida by 15
   Strength Power Rating: Florida 38, Georgia 19
   % of game comparisons: Florida 85.7%
   Yardage-to-score projection: Florida 37, Georgia 7
   Yards per-attempt extrapolation: Florida 38, Georgia 17
   Analysis: The spread on this is pretty wide considering the Bulldogs were ranked in the pre-season. But three losses later the team is yesterday's news. Florida's reputation has taken a hit, too, but they remain heavy favorites even against solid competition. It seems that both of these teams are overdue to have a good game. Florida's offense might finally hit it's stride but still not see a blowout win if Georgia plays well, too.
   Prediction: Florida 37, Georgia 23
    
4. Indiana (4-4) vs. #4 Iowa (8-0)
   Vegas line/odds: Iowa by 17 1/2
   Strength Power Rating: Iowa 32, Indiana 7
   % of game comparisons: Iowa 93.8%
   Yardage-to-score projection: Iowa 33, Indiana 10
   Yards per-attempt extrapolation: Iowa 31, Indiana 14
   Analysis: The Hawks, too, would relish a game where they just blow out their opponent; they haven't had one at home yet, and only once have they won by more than 11 all year. So being a two-and-a-half touchdown favorite, even against the Hoosiers, may seem a bit excessive. Especially considering the loss of their leading rusher and a starting offensive tackle. As always the Hawkeyes will get it done with defense. I don't see a "trap" game here, though this Iowa team could lose to about anyone—while being capable of beating anyone, too.
   Prediction: Iowa 27, Indiana 13
    
5. San Jose State (1-5) at #5 Boise State (7-0)
   Vegas line/odds: Boise State by 36 1/2
   Strength Power Rating: Boise State 45, San Jose State 8
   % of game comparisons: Boise State 100%
   Yardage-to-score projection: Boise State 42, San Jose State 3
   Yards per-attempt extrapolation: Boise State 49, San Jose State 3
   Analysis: Exhibit A of why the Broncos won't get to the national title game if they go undefeated—they play too many teams like the Spartans. And with TCU in the running, they might not get a BCS bowl game at all, despite beating Oregon. Winning this game is a must, of course, but the Oregon-USC game is just as important to their future. A win for the Ducks is a big boost for the Broncos.
   Prediction: Boise State 42, San Jose State 10
    
6. UNLV (3-5) at #6 TCU (7-0)
   Vegas line/odds: TCU by 35
   Strength Power Rating: TCU 46, UNLV 8
   % of game comparisons: TCU 100%
   Yardage-to-score projection: TCU 50, UNLV 10
   Yards per-attempt extrapolation: TCU 54, UNLV 6
   Analysis: The Horned Frogs have their own schedule problem, namely games like this. TCU has a real chance of being in the national title game if Texas drops a game and Iowa loses to Ohio State, both of which are decent probabilities. But their schedule works against them from here on out. When you're a 5-touchdown favorite anything less than a blowout win can lose you points in the polls and even playing the game can hurt you with the computers. TCU showed how hungry they were last week so I expect they'll keep it up, but giving their all for 60 minutes could be a challenge.
   Prediction:TCU 45, UNLV 17
    
7. #7 Cincinnati (7-0) at Syracuse (3-4)
   Vegas line/odds: Cincinnati by 15
   Strength Power Rating: Cincinnati 43, Syracuse 16
   % of game comparisons: Cincinnati 100%
   Yardage-to-score projection: Cincinnati 35, Syracuse 13
   Yards per-attempt extrapolation: Cincinnati 35, Syracuse 10
   Analysis: The line on this seems a bit close to me, particularly given the huge spreads on some of the other games. But Syracuse has shown great improvement this year, and they're going to shock someone this season like they did Notre Dame last year (I'm guessing it will be Pitt). Greg Paulus is having a decent year and by current Orange standards is excelling. Just like Iowa is due for a good game Cincinnati hasn't played a bad one yet; could this be it?
   Prediction: Cincinnati 35, Syracuse 20
    
8. #21 West Virginia (6-1) at #22 South Florida (5-2)
   Vegas line/odds: West Virginia by 3
   Strength Power Rating: South Florida 24, West Virginia 22
   % of game comparisons: South Florida 51%
   Yardage-to-score projection: West Virginia 22, South Florida 19
   Yards per-attempt extrapolation: South Florida 27, West Virginia 23
   Analysis: Neither of these teams has defeated a really good opponent. South Florida's list of victims is sad: FSU is the only decent win, with Syracuse and Western Kentucky the only other I-A schools on the list. But the Bulls have only lost to Pitt and Cincinnati, putting West Virginia in the "gray area", better than any team they've beaten, not as good as the teams they've lost to. West Virginia beat UConn last week, a team comparable to USF, but also lost to Auburn, another perhaps comparable team. USF has the advantage of the home field, and the disadvantage of possibly being at the start of another mid-season swoon. Every indication points to a close game; if either team wins by double digits they'll be making a statement.
   Prediction: South Florida 23, West Virginia 22

Alabama survives Tennessee 12-10, on a blocked field goal

Alabama escaped with a win at home and with its undefeated season and national title hopes intact, beating Tennessee 12-10.

The Volunteers closed within 2 points with a late TD pass, and recovered an onside kick shortly thereafter. Tennessee drove into Tide territory for a 44-yard attempt, but kicker Daniel Lincoln, who already had a miss and a block from similar range, once again could not get the kick high enough.

Leigh Tiffin, on the other hand, made four field goals for Alabama to score all of their points. Heisman candidate Mark Ingram had a mediocre day, falling just short of 100 yards and fumbling with minutes to go, setting up Tennessee's late touchdown.

Terrence Cody blocked both of the kicks for Alabama—and luckily wasn't called for celebration on the last one, after removing his helmet while the ball was still in play. For those wondering, Cody tied the record with two kick blocks in the same game; he holds it with 13 other players. He also tied the record for most blocks in a quarter (2) with Jerald Henry of USC (1994, against Alabama) and Pat Larson of Wyoming (1995 against Fresno State).

A week after Alabama seemed to become the consensus number one, taking over the spot in the AP while most commentators agreed, the near-loss might hurt them in the BCS standings. But with a showdown against Florida looming, only a loss can derail them regardless of their current poll standing.

Iowa State wins at Nebraska, 1st time since 1977, on 8 turnovers

Nebraska's solid defense once again did them no good as the offense sputtered to 8 turnovers in losing to Iowa State 9-7.

The Cornhuskers couldn't hold on to the ball to save their lives, and half of the turnovers were fumbles inside the Iowa State 20-yard-line. The score could easily have been 42-9 but Nebraska made every mistake possible. Even a field goal at any point would have won the game.

But on the last drive Nebraska acted like they had to go for it all in one chunk, rather than working their way down the field. They didn't complete a pass and the game ended with Lee's 3rd interception.

After a decent 5-1 start Nebraska is hitting another low. Iowa State on the other hand is having a resurgence; they're 5-3 with their only convincing loss at the hands of Iowa. They nearly beat beat Kansas State and Kansas.

Week 8 preview, odds, & predictions: Which undefeated team will lose?

By week 8, being and remaining an undefeated team is a big deal. Especially this year, where there aren't any "fraudulent" undefeated teams—all the current teams with zero losses are top 10 quality or close to it. In most years at this point there are a few teams that are undefeated but hardly above average. If Idaho had beaten Washington they'd be a good example.

Here are the most important matchups of the coming weekend:

1. #6 TCU (6-0) at #14 BYU (5-1)
   Vegas line/spread: TCU by 2
   Strength Power Rating: TCU by 3.5
   Game comparisons: TCU wins 59.5% of games
   Yardage Breakdown: TCU by 8
   Analysis: A huge game for the Mountain West and both teams. BYU can really improve their stock with a win here, and TCU would get their first legit win, putting them even with Boise State in the race for an at-large BCS bid. More importantly, this is by far TCU's biggest hurdle toward finishing undefeated. Despite being at BYU the Horned Frogs have the advantage, mainly due to their staunch defense. The teams' offenses work out to be roughly equal, TCU on the ground and BYU mostly by air. But TCU's rushing defense will force BYU to earn it through the air. If Max Hall is "on" they won't need the ground game and can put a stop to TCU's dream season in runaway fashion. More likely, though, is a close game where the Horned Frogs prevail.
   Prediction: TCU 31, BYU 28
    
2. #18 South Florida (5-1) at #20 Pittsburgh (6-1)
   Vegas line/spread: Pitt by 7
   Strength Power Rating: Pitt by 3
   Game comparisons: Pitt wins 54.8% of games
   Yardage Breakdown: South Florida by 7
   Analysis: Pitt is a tough team to predict. Just when it seems they're hopeless they come up with a big upset win, and just when it looks like they've turned the corner they lay an egg. Now back in the top 25 and standing at 6-1, they appear to be real. Is it time for a fall? Meanwhile South Florida has been doing the "start strong, lose several games in a row" thing for a couple of seasons and appear to be continuing the trend. They've been okay without Matt Groethe so far but it sure takes away from their odds in close games. I think Pitt will win one more to be 7-1 and really get people talking...then lose to Syracuse.
   Prediction: Pittsburgh 17, South Florida 14
    
3. Tennessee (3-3) at #3 Alabama (7-0)
   Vegas line/spread: Alabama by 14 1/2
   Strength Power Rating: Alabama by 15 1/2
   Game comparisons: Alabama wins 85.7% of games
   Yardage Breakdown: Alabama by 16 1/2
   Analysis: If you're wondering why the spread on this game is 14 to 17 points, look no further than the power rating and yardage breakdowns, which yield similar numbers. Tennessee is actually a very good 3-3 team so far, ranking solidly in the top 25 in the Strength ratings. But Alabama is at or close to #1. Will the Tide be able to dominate the Volunteers in a way the Gators couldn't? I know the popular sentiment is that Alabama should be #1, but Alabama is winning on defense just like Florida, and should have the same type of win over Tennessee.
   Prediction: Alabama 17, Tennessee 7
    
4. #2 Texas (6-0) at Missouri (4-2)
   Vegas line/spread: Texas by 14
   Strength Power Rating: Texas by 19
   Game comparisons: Texas wins 100% of comparisons
   Yardage Breakdown: Texas by 10
   Analysis: I'm not sure whether to call this a "trap" game. People have been slamming Texas for their schedule and for supposedly having a bad offense. What? They rank #1 in scoring offense when adjusted for competition—it's hard to score 16 points on Oklahoma, just ask BYU. If the Longhorns have trouble in Columbia it won't be because they aren't good, it will be from overconfidence: this game is a lull between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. But now that the public has been talking about how undeserving they are of the #3 BCS ranking, they might have a fire lit under them. And according to game analysis using the Strength power rating, Missouri's best effort so far falls short of Texas' worst.
   Prediction: Texas 29, Missouri 24
    
5. #4 Iowa (7-0) at Michigan State (4-3)
   Vegas line/spread: Iowa by 1
   Strength Power Rating: Iowa by 6.5
   Game comparisons: Iowa wins 67.3% of games
   Yardage Breakdown: Iowa by 5
   Analysis: It's a trendy pick to have Iowa lose this game, as the Spartans are on a winning streak and are at home while Iowa has well-documented shortcomings. The Hawkeyes have played well on the road, though, winning every game by at least 10 points (equal to their largest home win margin). The challenge for Michigan State is  scoring enough points against the tough Hawkeye defense. It means that Iowa will have to have a very bad offensive game—which is possible—and the Spartans need points on turnovers. It seems inevitable that Iowa's luck will run out at some point, and since I pegged this as an Iowa loss before the season started, I will stick with that prediction despite its trendiness.
   Prediction: Michigan State 17, Iowa 16
    
6. #1 Florida (6-0) at Mississippi State (3-4)
   Vegas line/spread: Florida by 22 1/2
   Strength Power Rating: Florida by 25.5
   Game comparisons: Florida wins 100% of games
   Yardage Breakdown: Florida by 27
   Analysis: Everyone's down on the Gators after the craptastic Arkansas game. One of these days, though, Florida is going to have a good game, and I think they're due against the Bulldogs, both on offense and defense.
   Prediction: Florida 41, Mississippi State 7
    
7. #5 Boise State (6-0) at Hawaii (2-4)
   Vegas line/spread: Boise State by 24.5
   Strength Power Rating: Boise State by 36.5
   Game comparisons: Boise State wins 97.2% of games
   Yardage Breakdown: Boise State by 22
   Analysis: Hawaii should always get a few more points when playing at home, as they are terrible on the road which skews their power ratings. Teams coming in to the islands don't play as well, either, due to vacation-itis, or the long plane ride. But none of that will matter this year as Boise looks to stay undefeated. Hawaii's passing defense doesn't look too bad in raw numbers (44th) or even when adjusted for opposition (43rd), but that's due to their awful rushing defense (110th adjusted) which gives teams no reason to put the ball in the air. When # of attempts is factored in the Warrior pass D ranks #89.
   Prediction: Boise State 43, Hawaii 24
    
8. Louisville (2-4) at #7 Cincinnati (6-0)
   Vegas line/spread: Cincinnati by 18
   Strength Power Rating: Cincinnati by 33.5
   Game comparisons: Cincinnati wins 100% of games
   Yardage Breakdown: Cincinnati by 17
   Analysis: The only thing that makes this game interesting at all is Tony Pike's injury. They'll play without him or play with him at less than 100%. This should limit the Bearcats' production on offense but not jeopardize the win at home.
   Prediction: Cincinnati 31, Louisville 22

Week 7 Preview, Odds, & Predictions - Biggest/best week of the year?

This might be the most important week of college football this year. Look at all the ranked teams that play each other! Look at all the almost-ranked teams that play ranked teams! It's such a big week that Texas-Oklahoma, ostensibly the biggest regular-season game of the year, is only #3.

1. #16 USC (4-1) at Notre Dame (4-1)
   Vegas line/spread: USC by 10
   Analysis: USC used to win this game by 31 points every year. In 2002, 2003, and 2004 the Trojans won by scores of 44-13, 45-14, and 41-10. Then the Irish broke the spell in 2005, losing by just three points. Since then, USC has struggled to victory margins of 20, 38, and 35 points. So just using historical precedent USC should be a 27 point favorite. The fact that Notre Dame is good this year, USC lost to Washington, and the game is in South Bend make the contest closer. The Irish have played everyone close this year, good or bad, so I'm betting this will be a year in the style of 2005. If Notre Dame wins they're a near-lock for a BCS game even if they go 10-2.
   Prediction: USC 24, Notre Dame 17
    
2. #20 Cincinnati (5-0) at #10 South Florida (5-0)
   Vegas line/spread: Cincy by 3 1/2
   Analysis: I have these teams' rankings reversed from the national polls, but all that will come out in the wash after this game is over. The winner has a big inside track to a BCS bowl, taking the driver's seat in the Big East. Cincinnati hasn't had a bad game and might be due to slip? I dunno, I'm taking the upset for upset's sake.
   Prediction: South Florida 26, Cincinnati 25
    
3. #2 Texas (5-0) vs. Oklahoma (3-2)
   Vegas line/spread: Texas by 3.5
   Analysis: I'm almost ready to pick the upset here because it's hard to imagine Oklahoma going 3-3, but that's what might happen. Texas has looked sloppy but I think this is the game they've waited for all year (well, that and Texas Tech, whom they didn't really dominate). There's going to be mixed emotions of being fired up for the big game and feeling like the game is diminished since Oklahoma has 2 losses. Yet the Sooners have no losses in the Big Twelve and could go to the Big Twelve title game ahead of a 1-loss Texas team! Oklahoma will either be 3-3 or throw the national title picture wide open; after losing by a point twice I think they'll win by a point for a change.
   Prediction: Oklahoma 25, Texas 24
    
4. #7 Virginia Tech (5-1) at #23 Georgia Tech (5-1)
   Vegas line/spread: Virginia Tech by 3
   Analysis: Virginia Tech has the best offense in the country. Wait, what? Can that be true? Well the Hokies are #20 in scoring average, and when adjusted for the defenses they've played (Nebraska,  Alabama, and Miami among them) they rank #1. Meanwhile Georgia Tech has been having problems on defense. The Hokies might not really have the best offense—remember, points set up or even scored by the defense and special teams still count for the offense—but either way Georgia Tech's going to be hard-pressed to stop them. It might be a shootout but Tech should win. (Heh, ok, I won't cheat: Virginia Tech should win. But boy would it be par for the ACC course if the Yellow Jackets did)
   Prediction: Virginia Tech 41, Georgia Tech 27
    
5. #4 Iowa (6-0) at Wisconsin (5-1)
   Vegas line/spread: Wisconsin by 2 1/2
   Analysis: It's no big surprise that Wisconsin is favored. How many times can Iowa pull out the close games? How many more INT-for-TD can Rick Stanzi have before it costs Iowa a game? I think the Hawkeyes will lose one of the next two road games, if not both. Still, I'd be more certain of a loss here if it was an upset. Iowa won't get overconfident for this game now that the Badgers are favored. They'll lose next week at Michigan State, but this one could go either way: a blowout win or loss for either team. I'll guess the Hawkeyes keep it going one more week.
   Prediction: Iowa 30, Wisconsin 13
    
6. #5 Boise State (5-0) at Tulsa (4-1)
   Vegas line/spread: Boise State by 9
   Analysis: A rare Wednesday night game that's worth watching. Oklahoma beat Tulsa, at home, 45-0. Boise travels to Tulsa to give us a comparison. Don't think that the Broncos don't know that they'll be measured by this game.
   Prediction: Boise State 41, Tulsa 20
    
7. Missouri (4-1) at #13 Oklahoma State (4-1)
   Vegas line/spread: OK State by 7
   Analysis: Lots of distraction at Oklahoma State due to the Dez Bryant incident. Add to that the fact that they haven't been a dominant force this year; their Georgia win is looking less impressive by the day, as is their loss to Houston. Missouri is under the radar again now that they've lost a game. Will Gundy get the troops fired up at home? If so they might blow away the Tigers, but they haven't blown away anyone other than Grambling this year so I'll believe it when I see it.
   Prediction: Missouri 27, Oklahoma State 20
    
8. #17 South Carolina (5-1) at #3 Alabama (6-0)
   Vegas line/spread: Alabama by 17
   Analysis: Could this be Spurrier's year? A win over Alabama would make it so, or at least make it one step closer. I don't think the Gamecocks are that good; check out their middling power ratings. Oddsmakers have this one right, Alabama will eat them up at home.
   Prediction: Alabama 24, South Carolina 6
    
9. Stanford (4-2) at Arizona (3-2)
   Vegas line/spread: Arizona by 5
   Analysis: Both these teams were surprise picks in my pre-season top 25. Both have had their moments and were doing well until losing last week. Now after Saturday one of them will have three losses and will officially be a disappointment. The pivotal question is, which team will feel worse after last weekend's loss? Let's look at how they lost. Stanford fell behind 31-7 to Oregon State in the first half, then came out and made the score respectable at 38-28. Arizona had the game in hand against Washington until a fluke play turned the game on its head. The Wildcats have to be the more demoralized team and so far Mike Stoops hasn't proven himself a master of team psychology in getting him team "up" for games, especially against lower-tier foes which is what Stanford is still considered.
   Prediction: Stanford 25, Arizona 16
    
10. Pittsburgh (5-1) at #25 Rutgers (4-1)
    Vegas line/spread: Pitt by 3
    Analysis: The winner of this game probably gets into the AP Top 25, and definitely has a spot in the SportsRatings top 25. Currently Rutgers has no *votes* in the AP, despite having just one loss to an undefeated top 10 team (Cincinnati). Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is 26th despite losing to 2-4 N.C. State and not beating anyone else worthwhile except Navy. Rutgers' wins are about as low as you can go, however: two I-AA teams (both with losing records), 2-4 Maryland, and 1-4 FIU. And they rank abysmally is the Strength Power Rating and should be a 16 point home underdog  according to the computer. Okay I'm sold: this game is for "most overrated 1-loss team" because that's what the winner will be.
    Prediction: Pitt 24, Rutgers 23

Week 6 Preview, Odds, and Predictions: Florida-LSU not the big game

Everyone's talking about Florida and LSU, will Tebow play or won't he, etc. Granted this is a huge game, moreso if you rank LSU in the top 5 (I don't). Both teams are undefeated, this might be Florida's toughest test, blah blah. I say the game is only big in retrospect, and that's if Florida loses. Otherwise it's just another big game among many this year for the SEC. What's clear is that this is "SEC Week" in college football, with the Big Ten also playing some key contests.

1. SEC Game of the Week #1: #3 Alabama (5-0) at #19 Mississippi (3-1)
   Vegas line/odds: Alabama by 5
   Analysis: In the pre-season, this was the game to determine who faces Florida in the SEC title game; it still might be that, though Mississippi's early loss gives Auburn and LSU hope. Both of those teams have to play Alabama, too, so a win by Ole Miss puts them right back in it. A loss and the dream is over. The fact that this game is played at Mississippi gave them the slight edge in the pre-season, but their offense just hasn't been up to snuff. If they're going to make a move it has to be now, otherwise disappointment will set in.
   Prediction: Alabama 30-23
    
2. SEC Game of the Week #2: #1 Florida (4-0) at #10 LSU (5-0)
   Vegas line/odds: Florida by 7 1/2
   Analysis: Okay, I'll give this game its due. It's at LSU, LSU is undefeated, and the Tigers figured to be Florida's toughest test on the regular-season schedule. LSU is riding high in the polls but hasn't played any better than the #23 team I figured they'd be in the pre-season. They should be 4-1 now by that projection; they could just as easily be 3-2 as 5-0, so I think they're living up to their borderline top 25 status. As for Florida, they haven't been the out-of-this-world dominant team most (including I) envisioned. And without Tebow they drop another few notches. But their defense is the reason they stacked up as an overwhelming favorite this year, and whether they have Tebow or not they should still win this game. Strange things happen, though, when a team's leader is gone. The oddsmakers must be having a fun time with this one.
   Prediction: Florida 28, LSU 14
    
3. Big Ten Co-Game of the Week: Michigan (4-1) at #4 Iowa (5-0)
   Vegas line/odds: Iowa by 8
   Analysis: The Hawkeyes are another team that must be giving oddsmakers fits. Beating Northern Iowa and Arkansas State by a combined 4 points at home, while beating three other winning teams handily including Penn State. Certainly the Hawkeye defense is tough but can they score enough points to win by 8? I give them the win—they'll lose to someone less heralded, like Michigan State, Indiana, or Northwestern—but it will be close in what looks to be a blustery day in Iowa City.
   Prediction: Iowa 28, Michigan 24
    
4. Big Ten Co-Game of the Week: Wisconsin (5-0) at #20 Ohio State (4-1)
   Vegas line/odds: Ohio State by 16
   Analysis: The Buckeyes are playing like demons since their loss to USC, and the spread reflects that fact. It also demonstrates that no one takes the undefeated Badgers seriously. They aren't in the AP top 25 despite their 5-0 record, and I don't rank them yet either—they've had a light schedule and barely won each game. But even at the Horseshoe I think they'll stay closer than two touchdowns. Ohio State may be taking the Badgers lightly and are due for a down game; are they ripe for the upset?
   Prediction: Ohio State 33, Wisconsin 27
    
5. Non-SEC or Big Ten Game of the Week: Nebraska (3-1) at #25 Missouri (4-0)
   Vegas line/odds: Nebraska by 3 1/2
   Analysis: A great Thursday game this week in the Big 12. You may wonder why Nebraska is favored on the road against undefeated Missouri; have you heard they might have the best defense in the country? Might, is the key word here. It's still early. But the Cornhuskers are playing like they have something to prove. The Tigers looked great against Illinois but since then Illinois has limped to a 1-3 record and Missouri hasn't lit up the world, but their offense will be a good test for determining whether the Blackshirts are really back.
   Prediction: Nebraska 28, Missouri 10

That's this week's preview. I took all the favorites, but took the underdog against the spread in two of the games. At least one of them is bound to be an upset, I think, and whichever one it is will have a big effect on the race in a major conference...

Week 5 preview: USC vs. Cal now an Pac-10 elimination game

Before the season started, USC at Cal was the pivotal game in the Pac-10 race. After USC beat Ohio State and Cal raced to two blowout wins, it looked like the game had national championship showdown written all over it.

Not any more. USC's loss at Washington was the first blow, and Cal's devastating loss to Oregon last week left both teams with a loss. One more loss probably puts the loser out of contention for the Rose Bowl, and certainly knocks them out of national title talk.

In fact, even the winner will have a tough time being in the national title picture. A blowout loss like Cal's (42-3) is enough to dissuade voters from ever putting a team in the top two. And unless Washington turns it around and finishes in the top 25 even USC will be penalized harshly. Last year Oregon State became a very respectable team but the Trojans weren't in the title picture.

So what was once the clear game of the week is now just an interesting contest. Some of the week's other big games have taken a step back, too, as the teams involved suffered setbacks.

1. Game of the Week: #14 Oklahoma (2-1) at #12 Miami (2-1)
   Vegas line/spread: Oklahoma by 7 1/2
   Analysis: This is another elimination game of sorts. Oklahoma still has national title hopes if they can beat Texas but losing this game would end that talk. Miami's aspirations are lesser this year but a 3-1 start in the first four games would be a triumph. Sam Bradford won't be ready for this game, but the way Landry Jones has been playing it might not matter. It's been hard to predict Miami so far this year and this game is no exception. I have to believe that Oklahoma has found their stride and is a bit too good for the Hurricanes. Both defenses are good so the score should be fairly low even for these strong passing offenses.
   Prediction: Oklahoma 27, Miami 24
    
2. #23 Southern Cal (3-1) at California (3-1)
   Vegas line/spread: USC by 4 1/2
   Analysis: What a difference a weekend makes. Before Cal's implosion against Oregon they would have been favored in this game, probably by a field goal. Now they are a clear underdog and the competition they beat up on the first three weeks looks poor; they dropped to #32 in the 727-team cross division power rating after being in the top 5 the week before. Coach Jeff Tedford has a tough task getting his team to forget last week's immolation and try to beat their rival for the first time since 2003. He'll do it enough to keep them close but it might be another heartbreaker. The loser of this game is really going to have a tough time staying motivated the rest of the season, so this one is important for both squads.
   Prediction: Southern Cal 28, Cal 24
    
3. #16 Michigan (4-0) at Michigan State (1-3)
   Vegas line/spread: Michigan State by 3 1/2
   Analysis: I put this one here because I thought it was an upset special. Michigan has had all the luck in the world this year so far while the Spartans have had the worst luck, losing in the last minute two games they should have won (Central Michigan, Notre Dame) and almost coming back against Wisconsin last week after limping through the entire game. That luck, I figure, has to reverse at some point. Michigan was as lucky against Notre Dame as MSU was unlucky.
    
   But now I see the Vegas line already favors the Spartans. What the hell? When I see something like this, I get suspicious, and it triggers my conspiracy-thinking. All the money's going to go for Michigan, whom you would expect should have been favored by 3 1/2. Then the Spartans will blow out the Wolverines. How did Vegas know this? I've seen this time and again and can't explain it; maybe it's just selective memory, but the conspiracy theory is that games like this—where the team that should be favored is not, making it an easy bet ("hey they either win or lose by a few points, easy money!")—are rigged by the refs, who are of course in on the whole Vegas multi-billion dollar industry. I was going to pick a very narrow Spartan win, but now they have to cover the spread, too, to satisfy my tin-foil hat.
   Prediction: Michigan State 42, Michigan 27
    
4. #15 LSU (4-0) at #19 Georgia (3-1)
   Vegas line/spread: Georgia by 3
   Analysis: Here's another game that could make Alabama look good. Since the Tide beat Virginia Tech, who beat Georgia, if the Bulldogs pull off a win it further bolsters Alabama in the power ratings. LSU is vastly overrated in the national polls, as they started too high and haven't done anything to deserve a top five ranking. Georgia has been up and down offensively after losing Moreno and Stafford and the defense has been similarly hit and miss. LSU has scored 31, 23, 31, and 30 this year. Are they ready to break out and have an impressive game that proves the doubters wrong? Or be exposed as a borderline top 25 team? This game is a tossup to me so I'll go with the home team. My gut says watch out for an explosive LSU start that leaves the Bulldogs in the dust, like Alabama did last year. We'll see what my gut knows.
   Prediction: Georgia 31, LSU 28
    
5. UCLA (3-0) at Stanford (3-1)
   Vegas line/spread: Stanford by 5 1/2
   Analysis: Stanford was in the SportsRatings pre-season top 15 but wasn't expected to contend for the conference title. Now after a controversial loss to Wake Forest in a game they dominated they're out of the SportsRatings top 25 but are leading the Pac-10 at 2-0. Since those wins are over Washington and Washington State that's no big deal, but considering the losses by USC and Cal and that one of those teams will soon have 2 conference losses the Cardinal are looking pretty good for a shot at the Rose Bowl. UCLA is 0-0 in conference play but a surprising 3-0 overall. The jury is still out on their victims—San Diego State, Tennnessee, and Kansas State—none of whom is likely a top squad. But the Bruins have some momentum. I think that'll come to an end in Palo Alto.
   Prediction: Stanford 36, UCLA 14

Week 4 preview, odds, & predictions: Iowa at Penn State is Game of the Week

Week 4 looks pretty good, here are the best games:

1. Game of the Week:
   #8 Iowa (3-0) at #6 Penn State (3-0)
   Vegas Line/Spread: Penn State by 10
   Analysis: This is a huge game in the Big Ten between the teams I ranked the top two in the conference heading into the season. Iowa has a tougher conference schedule, facing Michigan State and Ohio State on the road, so if they want to have a chance to get to the Rose Bowl they'll need this one. The Hawkeyes fell out of the AP top 25 early but have looked good since, especially on defense, and have beaten the Lions 6 of the last 7 times (which seems to be the stat of the week). Penn State really hasn't been very impressive except for defense, which makes me think this will be a very low-scoring game. The Vegas line (10 points) seems excessive to me, just like Notre Dame by 10 over Michigan State appeared to be too much. I could see Iowa winning this won easily if they can contain Clark, but they'll have to score, too, and they've had some issues on offense. Just like Texas and Florida, Penn State will have its hands full in its "revenge" game.
   Prediction: Penn State 14, Iowa 13
    
2. Texas Game of the Week:
   #13 Texas Tech (2-1) at #12 Houston (2-0)
   Vegas Line/Spread: Houston by 1 1/2
   Analysis: Another game featuring a team ranked by SportsRatings but not the AP. Texas Tech gave the Longhorns a good run last week only to fall. Now they face the upstart Cougars who beat Oklahoma State in week two. This should be an offensive explosion between two teams that can't get enough of the forward pass. Houston has two big advantages: the home field, and Case Keenum's experience relative to Taylor Potts'. Texas Tech has the advantage on defense, losing fewer starters from a much better unit last year than Houston's. This game could go either way; I don't think we really know enough about either team yet.
   Prediction: Houston 40, Texas Tech 35
    
3. #9 Miami (2-0) at Virginia Tech (2-1)
   Vegas Line/Spread: Miami by 2 1/2
   Analysis: After just two weeks the nation is declaring the Hurricanes to be "back." Though change one last-second play and they might not be in the top 25, let alone the top 10. Truth is this team still has shortcomings and is capable of giving up huge plays on defense. But for this game the more important point is that Virginia Tech is even more overrated; they are a borderline top 25 team at best.
   Prediction: Miami 29, Virginia Tech 21
    
4. #11 TCU (2-0) at Clemson (2-1)
   Vegas Line/Spread: Clemson by 2 1/2
   Analysis: Many might be surprised that Clemson is favored in this game, but it's a crucial one for TCU's BCS-buster chances, and I judged it the key game of TCU's season, reasoning that they should beat Utah and BYU in conference play. That last prospect was arguable before last week when both those teams fell; now Clemson is the team that could ruin the Frogs' season. I had this game as a pre-season tossup, giving Clemson a 49% chance of winning; now after seeing TCU's struggles on offense I might give the Tigers the home win. This is where TCU has to prove themselves worthy, and where Clemson might prove they're a top 25 team.
   Prediction: Clemson 24, TCU 14
    
5. #23 Washington (2-1) at Stanford (2-1)
   Vegas Line/spread: Stanford by 7
   Analysis: No one will be impressed with the winner of this game, unfortunately. If Stanford wins, they only beat Washington, a team that went 0-12 last year. If the Huskies win, well, no one seems to respect Stanford that much. But I think the winner of this game should be taken seriously as a legit top 25 team. If Washington can start 3-1 with a win over USC and just a loss to LSU, then last year's woes should be disregarded for the most part. And Stanford is a few bad calls from being undefeated themselves.
   Prediction: Stanford 28, Washington 27

One More Time: Washington beats USC, final score: 16-13

Once again, a dominant USC Trojan team has inexplicably lost to a heavy underdog in Pac-10 play. The Washington Huskies, winless last year at 0-12, took advantage of several USC turnovers and stayed in the game the whole way, winning on a field goal with 7 seconds left.

Jake Locker completed a clutch pass from the 35 to move the Huskies into field goal position inside the ten; two plays later kicker Erik Folk hit a 22 yarder to make it 16-13 with three seconds left. USC couldn't pull off a miracle on the ensuing kickoff and the rest is history—or history repeating itself for the Trojans.

Southern Cal was a 18-20 point favorite today. Each of the last three years the Trojans have blown a conference game in which they were huge favorites over an unranked opponent: last year against Oregon State 27-21 (a 25 point favorite), in 2007 against Stanford 24-23 (41 point favorite), and in 2006 against UCLA and Oregon State, in both games an 11 point favorite. For the second straight year, USC lost coming off a big win against Ohio State

Washington didn't play great offense, but Locker kept them on life support as the defense forced key turnovers, intercepting Aaron Corp in his first start, and recovering fumbles from Stafon Johnson and Stanley Havili, the latter near the Washington 10 yard line in the 3rd quarter.

Week Three Previews, Odds, and Predictions; the five (or seven) best games

Week three should make up for a week two bereft of strong matchups.

1. Game of the Week: #7 Texas Tech (2-0) at #2 Texas (2-0)
   Vegas line/spread: Texas by 17 1/2
   Analysis: It's probably unfair to judge Texas Tech by this game. The Longhorns will be out for revenge in Austin and the result will likely confirm in most people's minds that the Red Raiders are not a top 25 team. I have them ranked very high and regardless of the outcome they'll stay in the top 25. But Taylor Potts is in his third start to Colt McCoy's 1,000th and Tech's two wins didn't suggest they belong in the top ten while Texas rolled (eventually) in both of their victories. The only thing that might keep this one close is the very fact that nothing is expected of the Raiders; they have the element of surprise, and if ULM can score 20 on the Longhorns then they should put up at least that much, right?
   Prediction: Texas 45, Texas Tech 20
    
2. Below-the-Radar Game of the Week: #8 Arizona (2-0) at #12 Iowa (2-0)
   Vegas line/spread: Iowa by 5
   Analysis: A game that's getting less notice than it should. Arizona's win over Central Michigan looked a lot better once the latter upset Michigan State. And Iowa, the fashionable upset pick last week, instead kicked butt at Iowa State. While I don't expect either of these teams to appear in the AP top 10—Arizona has major quarterback issues while Iowa edged I-AA Northern Iowa by the slimmest of slim margins—the winner really should be in the top 25 at 3-0. Since it's in Iowa City I'm sticking with my pre-season pick for the Hawkeyes; the Wildcats will have to sneak up on someone else.
   Prediction: Iowa 27, Arizona 24
    
3. Most Complicating Game of the Week: #25 Florida State (1-1) at #11 BYU (2-0)
   Vegas line/spread: BYU by 7 1/2
   Analysis: If the Seminoles win this one, it potentially wreaks havoc with my subjective (and supposedly logic-based) Top 25. In that case, FSU will be ahead of BYU, who beat Oklahoma. With a Miami loss to Georgia Tech, the Hurricanes will still be ahead of FSU, meaning they'll have to jump the Sooners despite losing. Though I don't have much confidence in Florida State after seeing them struggle to the very end against Jacksonville State while BYU cruised to a second impressive win, I'm sure the football gods will do what they have to to make things difficult for me.
   Prediction: FSU 31, BYU 28
    
4. Best Thursday Night Georgia Tech Game This Week: #19 Georgia Tech (2-0) at #18 Miami (1-0)
   Vegas line/spread: Miami by 5 1/2
   Analysis: The Yellow Jackets beat Jacksonville State 37-17, while Florida State beat the same team just 19-9 on two very late scores. So if we compare Tech and Miami solely via transitive scores against a division I-AA team it doesn't look good for Miami. Normally I wouldn't do that but as noted above, a Miami loss messes up my top 25's continuity, so it has to happen. For real analysis, we could note that Miami looked much better trained against the option so far. Last year's game was devastating to the Miami D; they should do better this year, but the game is still a tossup.
   Prediction: Georgia Tech 27, Miami 24 (OT)
    
5. Throwing a Bone to the AP Poll: Nebraska (2-0) at Virginia Tech (1-1)
   Vegas line/spread: Virginia Tech by 5
   Analysis: These two teams are in the AP top 25 (at #19 and #13) but Virginia Tech started at #25 in ours and fell out after losing to Alabama, while the Cornhuskers weren't close to the top 25 pre-season. The winner of this game has the inside track to making the SportsRatings rankings, but will in our opinion be necessarily overrated in the AP. If Nebraska wins we won't really know what to think of them unless they stay undefeated through the October 17 Texas Tech game, and even then to really prove themselves they'd have to beat Oklahoma on November 7th. Both of those contests are at home, giving Nebraska a chance to have a really good year—if they're actually a good team, which has yet to be seen. Virginia Tech has Miami next week, and Georgia Tech and North Carolina in October, so if they're the real deal they have no shortage of chances to prove it.
   Prediction: Virginia Tech 33, Nebraska 20
    
6. Honorable Mention Top 5 Game: #1 Florida (2-0) vs. Tennessee (1-1)
   Vegas line/spread: Florida by 29 1/2
   Analysis: Tennessee couldn't even make this one interesting by coming in undefeated. The Gators could have gotten overconfident given the spread and expectations, but they'll want to rip Lane Kiffin a new one for dissing Urban Meyer in the pre-season. I assigned Tennessee a 0% chance of winning this game in the pre-season and nothing's changed to give them hope, except perhaps the 3 field goals that Florida has given up so far mean they might not get shut out. Kiffin's mouth ruined any chance for a trap game set up by the Vols' loss to UCLA. Sometimes it's fun just to watch coaches like him get smacked around a bit.
   Prediction: Florida 59, Tennessee 7
    
7. Consolation Prize Game of the Week: Michigan State (1-1) at Notre Dame (1-1)
   Vegas line/spread: Notre Dame by 10
   Analysis: Both of these teams suffered unfortunate losses, and one of them is going to be stuck at 1-2 to start the year. Both of them could still have great seasons but it will be demoralizing for the loser. One question: why on earth is the line so high? I know it's at Notre Dame but I consider this a neutral-field toss-up. Maybe the Irish are finally ready to break the string of losses to MSU at home? Maybe the Irish will feel they're at a "crossroads" for the season, while the Spartans will be in a funk. Pre-season I picked this as one of Notre Dame's two losses, but I guess mentally the Irish will be served well by a home game while Michigan State's mentality has to be negative. Still I'm taking the Spartans against the spread. When the line seems out of whack, though, that's when games tend to fall on the other side of expectations...Vegas seems to be hinting at an Irish blowout win.
   Prediction: Notre Dame 32, Michigan State 27

Week Two Preview/Odds/Predictions: Are there no good games this weekend?

After a surprisingly good week one, this is the hangover. Given the 12-week schedule's propensity for games against I-AA teams, as well as other overmatched opponents, we got a break last week. Not only were there quite a few "real" games, but several games against FCS teams were close and some of the more boring matchups turned into good games.

This week, though, there's little in terms of marquee action, and some barrel-scraping has to be done to make a top five:

1. #3 USC (1-0) at #22 Ohio State (1-0)
   Vegas line/spread: USC by 7
   This is the big game? After what Ohio State did last week this matchup isn't as anticipated. Not to say that a lot of people were putting it on their calendars before that. I had the Buckeyes pretty low in the SportsRatings pre-season rankings and they did nothing to make me think they're a top ten team. But of course this game is high on tradition; Ohio State has one of the most intimidating home stadiums in the nation; and with the matchup looking dismal it means the game almost has to exceed expectations. And I'm not talking about Vegas' expectations, I'm talking about Joe Public who assumes another Trojan blowout. Maybe the Buckeyes were looking ahead last week. Maybe USC's true freshman gets a bit rattled in his first road game in front of 100,000 people?
   Prediction: USC 34, Ohio State 20
    
2. #17 Notre Dame (1-0) at Michigan (1-0)
   Vegas line/spread: Notre Dame by 3
   Look at this: both Ohio State and Michigan playing at home the same week and both underdogs. Because there are no other intra-top 25 matchups, this is the 2nd biggest game. Unlike the #1 game, this one grew in stature as both the Irish and Wolverines kicked butt last weekend. I liked what Michigan did but it was against a team with a depleted defense, and Notre Dame's defense did well last week too.
   Prediction: Notre Dame 28, Michigan 17
    
3. Houston (1-0) at #7 Oklahoma State (1-0)
   Vegas line/spread: Oklahoma State by 15
   Already we're scraping for good games. This one features two of the most high-powered offenses in the country. Houston's Case Keenum is likely this year's Graham Harrell in terms of production. Last week the Cougars blitzed I-AA Northwestern State 55-7 in a strong warmup performance. The Cowboys of course dispatched Georgia and should do the same to Houston though it will be another (and more difficult) test for their defense.
   Prediction: Oklahoma State 38, Houston 23
    
4. UCLA (1-0) at Tennessee (1-0)
   Vegas line/spread: Tennessee by 10 1/2
   In 1998 this would have been a critical matchup. These are two teams that I rated very low pre-season, and only one of them gets to start 2-0. Tennessee is looking for revenge for last year's loss and the Volunteers looked good last week while running up the score against Western Kentucky. UCLA looked about as good as I expected, which is not very, while beating San Diego State 33-14.
   Prediction: Tennessee 37, UCLA 23
    
5. Clemson (1-0) at #15 Georgia Tech (1-0)
   Vegas line/spread: Georgia Tech by 5
   Guess I'll throw in the Thursday night game at #5. It is a crucial ACC matchup; of course, every game is important in the ACC since any one win might put a team into the championship game. Clemson just missed my pre-season top 25 and did exactly as expected last week, beating MTSU 37-14. Georgia Tech didn't look great against Jacksonville State, making this game a tossup in my book. Still I'll give it to the Yellow Jackets due to home field.
   Prediction: Georgia Tech 29, Clemson 28

Great Game in Talahassee - Final Score: Miami 38, Florida State 34

Ok, I owe the FSU-Miami rivalry an apology: every time I complain that this game doesn't carry the weight it used to the teams have one hell of a contest. This one was a fantastic, back and forth contest that wasn't decided until an official's review of a Christian Ponder pass into the end zone was trapped rather than caught, leaving Miami a 38-34 winner.

Jacory Harris and Miami scored first, but Christian Ponder answered and kicker Dustin Hopkins hit a 52-yarder to make it 10-7 FSU early in the 2nd quarter. But Javarris James scored with a minute left in the half to give Miami a 14-10 lead. Ponder threatened again before halftime but the Canes intercepted him in the end zone.

The second half was even more exciting. Ponder scored twice more in the third quarter, first on a run and then on a pass to Taiwan Easterling. But kicker Hopkins muffed an extra point, so it was 23-14, and that single point would be a big factor.

Three times Miami had 1st and goal from inside the 3 yard line; the first time they had to settle for a field goal after trying to pass on 1st and 2nd down; Matt Bosher's field goal brought them to within 23-17. Their second try from the 2 went better, with Harris running the ball in himself and the Hurricanes had the lead at 24-23.

Miami got the ball back with the lead, but instead they handed the lead to Florida State. Harris was hit while throwing and Markus White ran the interception into the end zone; a 2-pt PAT made it 31-24, Seminoles. Worse, Harris was hurt on the play. Remarkably, he "shook it off" as he said, and guided the Canes to another score on a 25-yard pass to Graig Cooper. For the day Harris was 21 of 34 for 386 yards, 2 TDs and 2 interceptions, and 1 rushing TD.

Ponder wasn't any slouch either tonight, at 24 for 41, 294 yards, 2 TDs, 1 int, 1 rushing TD. He led the Seminoles into field goal range and Hopkins made it 34-31.

But it turned out to be Harris' night. On the next series he connected with Travis Benjamin to the 3-yard line on a catch where he barely had the ball and a foot down at the same time. Miami scored on the next play and led by four, 38-34, leaving Ponder and the Seminoles about 2 minutes to score a touchdown.

As they'd been doing all game, though, the Canes kicked off short, trying to avoid one of the long returns that both sides had several of. This gave them the ball at midfield and a few plays later the Seminoles were inside the 10. Some questionable clock management followed, giving the Noles 24 seconds to score; on the other hand, it would leave Miami with no chance to get a winning field goal. A pass interference penalty gave FSU a fresh set of downs, but after a few incompletions Ponder appeared to hit Jarmon Fortson for a last-second touchdown but the ball was trapped.

Bobby Bowden lost his first home opener ever (unless you count the 1989 Southern Miss loss in Jacksonville).

FBS vs. FCS: Which I-A schools did the best, worst?

This weekend 38 Division I-A (FBS) teams took on I-AA (FCS) schools. With 12-games schedules this is becoming more common, making it harder for the casual fan to know if their team did well or not. After all, who keeps track of all the Division I-AA teams? Here's a guide to which teams did the best and the worst against their Championship Subdivision foes.

The Winners

These teams exceeded expectations the most:

1. Air Force (beat Nicholls State 72-0). Nicholls State isn't a I-AA power; they finished 3-6 in a hurricane-shortened season last year. But they aren't the worst by a long shot, and Air Force simply ripped them a new one. A four or five touchdown margin wouldn't have been unexpected, but ten? That's what Florida was supposed to do to Charleston Southern! This win bodes well for Air Force's offense and defense. The biggest concern on defense was the rushing defense, and they held the Colonels to 2 yards per carry. Nicholls State runs a similar offense to Air Force, so it's not all that surprising that the Falcon defense shut it down, but the overall performance is encouraging.
2. Fresno State (beat UC Davis 51-0). An impressive shutout by the Bulldogs. Davis was a poor road team last year but offensively they have promise. But Fresno State contained their passing game and stuffed the run while firing on all cylinders offensively. New quarterback Ryan Colburn performed well, too.
3. Boston College (beat Northeastern 54-0). Another shutout, though this one was more expected; Northeastern's offense isn't great and it showed. But B.C.'s pass defense looked good so far, and that's one of their main concerns. Offensively the big question was who could play quarterback for the Eagles, and both candidates did well. Again, Boston College was supposed to win comfortably over the 2-10 Huskies, but a dominant shutout shows that they're taking all games seriously.
4. Houston (beat Northwestern State 55-7). Northwestern State, though 7-5 last year, wasn't much better than Northeastern. But they had nine starters back on defense and should have at least provided some test for Houston. No rust here, though: the Cougars racked up over 400 yards passing and Case Keenum threw for four touchdowns. The defensive performance was even better, suggesting that things might not be as bad as expected (they returned only four starters to a poor 2008 unit). As expected the rushing defense was shaky (allowing four yards per play), but the pass D was pretty good allowing just over 100 yards. 
5. South Florida (beat Wofford 40-7). Wofford, 10th in the pre-season FCS poll, evened the score at 7-7 early and it looked like might give the Bulls even more trouble than expected. But USF got serious and then blew away the Terriers. 
6. UNLV (beat Sacramento State 38-3). The Rebel offense led by Omar Clayton did about exactly as expected against the Hornets, but the questionable defense did a great job in keeping their opponent out of the end zone. 

The Losers

These teams didn't look good, casting doubt on their 2009 campaign:

1. Louisville (beat Indiana State 30-10). The Sycamores were 0-12 last year and already 0-1 this year, having lost to a NAIA team. Louisville should have scored 50 points on this team effortlessly. New QB Justin Burke threw two interceptions.
2. Virginia (lost to William & Mary 26-14). The Cavaliers faced a good I-AA team, no doubt, and I had them pegged 10th in the ACC, so the loss isn't shocking. But Virginia was scoreless in the 2nd half and the game wasn't close at the end. Jameel Sewell threw three interceptions and the new offense didn't work very well after the first series. It makes me question whether the Cavs can get even the two ACC wins I had them apportioned this year.
3. Iowa (beat Northern Iowa 17-16). UNI is one of the best teams in the FCS, and maybe their performance shows that they're ready to win a title. But it also shows some serious shortcomings of the Hawkeyes. The ground game lost Shonn Greene to the NFL and Jewel Hampton to knee injury and couldn't get going. QB Ricky Stanzi was erratic as usual. The Hawks dodged a bullet by blocked two straight field goal attempts. UNI is an in-state rival but never gave them trouble before; what happens when they have to meet actual rival Iowa State in Ames next week?
4. Texas Tech (beat North Dakota 38-13). Everyone knew the offense would come down from its lofty heights minus Harrell and Crabtree, but the Raiders led just 28-13 in the fourth quarter. Taylor Potts threw the ball well except when he was getting intercepted three times.
5. Georgia Tech (beat Jacksonville State 37-17). What is it with the Yellow Jackets and FCS teams? They beat Gardner-Webb last year just 10-7. This one wasn't nearly that bad, but the team had five fumbles and when the starters left the team stalled. Jacksonville State is a good team and the Wreck were up 31-7 at the half, but if they're going to compete for the ACC title the reserves have to be ready too.
6. Oregon State (beat Portland State 34-7). Portland State was 4-7 last year; Oregon State beat USC last year. I would expect the Beavers to beat Washington by this score. 
7. Central Florida (beat Samford 28-24). I'm not high on UCF this year but they should have beaten Samford by more than 4 points, needing a fourth quarter score to go ahead.
8. West Virginia (beat Liberty 33-20). Post-Pat White, things were going to change. Liberty's a good I-AA team, but without kicker Tyler Bitancurt performing so well the Mountaineers would have had a real game on their hands.
9. Florida (beat Charleston Southern 62-3). Yes they won, yes they dominated, no I don't expect them to try to score more than 62 points. But the defense didn't look like the best defense ever, which was what was expected. Charleston Southern actually confused them at times in the first half. The outcome doesn't suggest there's anything wrong with Florida, who can be forgiven for not taking this game seriously. But they didn't beat the spread, be it 73 or 63 points.
10. Kansas State (beat UMass 21-17). The Wildcats build a 21-3 lead and almost let the game get away from them. Not a great start to Snyder Era II.
11. Indiana (beat Eastern Kentucky 19-13). The Hoosiers got the win, and that's what's important, because they might not see much more of that. Especially after doing the bare minimum needed to garner the only easy win on their schedule.
12. Southern Methodist (beat Stephen F. Austin 31-23). The Lumberjacks were 4-8 last year and SMU is supposed to be better in June Jones' second year. Yet the Mustangs needed fourth-quarter scores to overcome a 23-14 deficit. 
13. Temple (lost to Villanova 27-24). Villanova was #5 in the pre-season FCS poll so this game was no gimme and no major upset. But it was a home game for the Owls, and losing this one suggests they won't be a MAC contender and perhaps no better than last year.

Iowa blocks 2 field goals within :07 seconds, escapes Northern Iowa; final score 17-16

Here's one to look up: has any team ever blocked two field goals on consecutive plays? Because that's what the Iowa Hawkeyes had to do to escape I-AA power Northern Iowa Saturday afternoon in Iowa City.

With :07 to play on 1st down and Iowa leading by a point, UNI lined up for a 40-yard attempt. Three Hawkeyes got in the air and blocked it sideways. The usual confusion—do I touch the ball or not?—ensued, with the Hawks deciding not to touch the ball. A Panther player scooped it up and was tackled with 1 second to go.

Miracle finish for Iowa? Not so fast. Because the ball stayed behind the line, it was recoverable by the offense. And because the attempt was on first down, that made it 2nd down, UNI ball. Needless to say the home crowd was not happy.

But the Hawk special teams said no problem—we'll just block the next kick. And they did. This time the ball crossed the line and, ironically, Hawks players fell on the ball which is exactly what they should NOT have done, as it's the only way UNI could have regained possession and advanced. But that didn't happen and the game was over.

Iowa can celebrate now but their offense needs some work. Shonn Greene is gone, of course, but they also recently lost Jewell Hampton and it showed; they couldn't get a running game established as starting tailback Paki O'Meara averaged under 2 yards a carry. QB Ricky Stanzi wasn't bad but he can't take over a game. A bright spot was TE Tony Moeaki, who played his best game in years now that's he's finally healthy. The defense wasn't bad overall, either, as holding UNI to 16 isn't terrible.

UNI looks like a team to beat in the Championship Subdivision. Their passing attack with QB Pat Grace kept Iowa on its heels for the early part of the game and then later in the final drive where they marched the length of the field to set up not one but two field goal attempts.

So I ask the question: has any team ever blocked field goals on consecutive plays? It might be the first time due to all the factors that make it rare. 99% of field goals are on 4th down, I'd guess, so even blocked ones can't normally be recovered (unless it advances forward and is interefered with by the defense then recovered by the offense). So it's extremely rare when a team attempts two straight field goals. To have the second kick blocked, too, decreases the odds further.

My guess is that this is a first. I'm sure if it has someone will mention it in the next 24 hours...

Boise State beats Oregon; North Texas shocks Ball State; Troy, Temple also upset victims

It was a good night for Smurf Blue, Mean Green, and Bowling Green. Boise State beat Oregon and North Texas led a rash of upsets that struck before the first weekend of the college football season even started.

  Boise State 19, Oregon 8  

Boise State accomplished what they had to do in week one—emerge with a win. It wasn't dominant enough to suggest they're a national title contender or even a top ten team, but the game wasn't close as Oregon's offense—so unstoppable last year—couldn't get off the ground. Meanwhile Kellen Moore and the Broncos ate up the clock with two long drives in the first half, both of which ended in missed field goals. Kicker Kyle Brotzman, 17 of 26 last year, missed attempts from the left hash mark before connecting on a 45-yarder later on.

Boise State dominated the 2nd quarter as well, rolling to a 13-0 lead which should have been much worse. Moore hit Austin Pettis for a touchdown and then ran in the 2 point conversion. The defense stymied the Ducks, scoring a safety that made it 10-0. The Broncos got their 2nd touchdown early in the 3rd quarter and despite many opportunities thereafter didn't score again. They botched a snap on a field goal attempt and couldn't take advantage of several turnovers. But they didn't have to worry because Jeremiah Masoli and Oregon couldn't get going. The Ducks had just seven first downs and LaGarrette Blount—a 1,000 yard rusher last season—had negative yardage for the game and punched a Boise State player who taunted him after the game was over.

  North Texas 20, Ball State 10  

A big surprise out of Indiana. The Sun Belt's North Texas, one of last year's worst teams—and projected to still be near the bottom this year—beat Ball State in Muncie. The Cardinals were undefeated last year and though not promising to be as good this year still had hopes of competing for the MAC crown. Riley Dodge threw two TD passes and Cam Montgomery had 150 yards rushing. Now the question over the next few weeks is: is Ball State really that bad? Or has North Texas really improved that much? This was supposed to be the Cardinals' easiest game of the year; now they really have to worry about I-AA power New Hampshire on the 12th. Meanwhile this was one of North Texas' tougher challenges; a winning season is not beyond the pale any more. They're a team that should actually improve thoughout the season. Coach Todd Dodge had talked about the team showing a very different attitude this season; apparently he was onto something.

  Bowling Green 31, Troy 14  

Troy was the Sun Belt team that was supposed to win tonight, with Bowling Green being the MAC team that was supposed to lose. Instead the Falcons tripped the Trojans in a lesser upset but an upset nevertheless. It's more the magnitude of the loss that puts into question the ability of Troy to win the Sun Belt. The Trojan secondary was known to be a huge problem area with no starters returning, and Bowling Green racked up over 300 yards passing. The Falcons' fortunes are looking a lot brighter, as it seemed they'd be on the losing end of many close games this year; now all those could be wins.

  Villanova 27, Temple 24  

Villanova came back from a 10-point 4th quarter deficit to upset Temple, a team that looked ready to have a breakout season. But the loss to a I-AA is not quite so shocking, since the Wildcats are one of the best teams in the FCS and now have to be taken seriously as a championship contender. Temple's own MAC title hopes are still alive, but they have to learn to finish, something they couldn't do last year when they lost scads of close games.

  South Carolina 7, North Carolina State 3  

Another minor upset, this time in a game between mid-to-lower level BCS teams. Steve Spurrier has to be pleased at getting a road win but not happy with the way the offense played. Though the Wolfpack can console themselves that the Gamecocks have a staunch defense, NC State's D wasn't any good last year so it's likely that South Carolina's offense is just bad. It's hard to say what this means for both teams going forward, but losing at home never advanced a team's cause so it's a good thing they have Murray State next. South Carolina, on the other hand, has Georgia next week, also on the road.

2009 Week One Previews, Odds, & Predictions: The Five Best and Worst Games

Like every opening week in college football there are a lot of crap games. It's been getting worse since the move to 12-games schedules diluted things further and added more I-AA schools into the mix. But there are a lot of good games, too. Some teams—like Miami vs. FSU and Cincinnati vs. Rutgers—kick off the year with a tough conference game. The best, of course, is when good teams take on other good teams outside their conference.

Here are the five best and five, games of Week One, 2009, starting with the BEST:

1. Game of the Week: #19 Oregon at #16 Boise State
   Line/Spread: Boise State by 3
   We will probably know by the end of Thursday night whether the Broncos will be in a BCS bowl game. Beat the Ducks convincingly and it's very likely. Win a slim victory and they might go undefeated but be left out of the BCS equation. Lose, of course, and it's all over. It also depends on whether Oregon lives up to its pre-season billing, too. Have to give the edge to Boise State in this one, simply because they won on the road last year.
   Prediction: Boise State 35, Oregon 30
    
2. #25 Virginia Tech vs. #6 Alabama in Atlanta
   Line/Spread: Alabama by 6
   This one beats the Oklahoma State/Georgia game because it's on a neutral field. Virginia Tech is having running back problems and I think this one might go a lot like last year's Alabama-Clemson opener, another Tide vs. ACC neutral field game that turned into a rout. I have the Hokies considerably lower than the rest of the pre-season polls; this is their first chance to prove me wrong.
   Prediction: Alabama 24, Virginia Tech 13
    
3. #26 Georgia at #11 Oklahoma State
   Line/Spread: Oklahoma State by 4 1/2
   This one answers the question, are the Cowboys for real this year? And maybe asks some questions about Georgia, too, whom I don't think is going to be all that great in 2009. A road win against the terrible trio of Zac Robinson, Dez Bryant, and Kendall Hunter would be a great confidence booster heading into the season. But without Matt Stafford and Knowshon Moreno, you have to figure there will be at least a 1-game adjustment period.
   Prediction: Oklahoma State 38, Georgia 31
    
4. #34 Missouri vs. #31 Illinois in St. Louis
   Line/Spread: Illinois by 6 1/2
   Missouri was good last year but won't be as good this season; Illinois finished 5-7 in '08 but should be much-improved. Have they crossed over, so that Illinois will finally win this neutral-field game? The oddsmakers think so. I'd have to agree but either way this game answers a lot of questions about both teams: How will Missouri do replacing Chase Daniel? Can Juice Williams make a Heisman run this year? The last few contests have seen a lot of offense so this one should be fun to watch.
   Prediction: Illinois 35, Missouri 34
    
5. #28 Baylor at #37 Wake Forest
   Line/Spread: Wake Forest by 2
   This game is interesting to me for a couple of reasons. I've got Baylor as a near-top 25 teams this season, and this game will show right away whether I'm right. Last year the Bears lost to the Deacons 41-13 at home; if they can win on the road it means they're probably for real. Also, quarterback Robert Griffin should be a Heisman contender in 2010—unless he goes wild this year and puts his name in the mix a season early.
   Prediction: Baylor 27, Wake Forest 20 (OT)

Now for the weekend's WORST games, and believe me, there are a lot to choose from.

1. Dog of the Week: Charleston Southern at #1 Florida
   Line/Spread: 63 points (unofficial, via Danny Sheridan)
   The line on this game isn't 73 points; Dr. Saturday tracked down the truth. But it's still quite a joke. I-AA Charleston Southern (7-5 last year) lost to Miami 52-7, and lost to Miami of Ohio to boot. They're probably worse this season. Why Florida needs to play a team like this, no one knows. It's like last year when they took on The Citadel, who finished 4-8. Why can't a program like Florida at least schedule a tougher FCS opponent? I'm taking the Gators against the spread—the "real" one, not the one bandied about the 'net.
   Prediction: Florida 70, Charleston Southern 0
    
2. Indiana State at #80 Louisville
   No line.
   Indiana State was 0-12 last season in the FCS (I-AA). Lousiville isn't going to be great this year but they've been a power recently, and scheduling an extremely weak I-AA team is just wrong. Other I-A teams facing pathetic I-AA teams include Southern Miss against Alcorn State (2-10) and Arkansas State vs. Mississippi Valley State (3-8).
   Prediction: Louisville wins.
    
3. #83 Maryland at #7 California
   Line/Spread: Cal by 21
   I rank Maryland as one of the weakest BCS-conference teams this year, last in the ACC. They beat Cal last year in an up-and-down season, but now they're just down. This should be nothing more than a revenge game for Cal and a warm-up for Jahvid Best's Heisman run. If they're upset you can scratch Cal off your list of potential BCS teams this year.
   Prediction: Cal 42, Maryland 7
    
4. #49 BYU at #3 Oklahoma in Dallas
   Line/Spread: Oklahoma by 22
   I don't understand the hype about this game. Let me start by saying, though, that I like the idea of BCS teams facing a tough schedule, and this is an interesting matchup. But in terms of the expected outcome? I think this one's overblown. Even Vegas sees this as a cakewalk for the Sooners, not a battle between top 25 teams, which I think BYU is not. It's also really a home game for Oklahoma no matter how you look at it. If the Cougars win this one—if it's even close—then I'm very mistaken about both teams.
   Prediction: Oklahoma 51, BYU 10
    
5. #30 Miami at #18 Florida State
   Line/Spread: FSU by 6 1/2
   This is a good game. It's an ACC game between two good ACC teams, and is fairly evenly matched. But if you compare it to what it used to mean, year-in and year-out? It looks pretty sad. Both teams have fallen far from their lofty peaks, especially the Hurricanes. Both are just teams with a shot at winning their division, like at least a half-dozen other teams in the conference. Another annoying factor is that this game is on Labor Day, screwing up the polls (do they vote on Sunday and ignore this game, or on Tuesday morning?) I don't think Miami is ready to run with FSU quite yet, not in Tallahassee. Maybe next year they will, and maybe in a few years the rivalry will really matter again.
   Prediction: FSU 31, Miami 24

2009 BCS Title: Championship game results - final score: Florida 24, Oklahoma 14

For the second time in three years, Florida's  defense held a vaunted offense to just 14 points to win the BCS Championship game as the Gators defeated Oklahoma 24-14. The Sooners failed to score on two critical trips inside the Gator 10 yard line in the first half, stopped on a fourth down and on a goal-line interception. Heisman winners Tim Tebow and Sam Bradford each had two touchdown passes but were also intercepted twice each; the two had a combined 8 interceptions all season before the game.

Tebow and Percy Harvin each surpassed 100 yards on the ground. Harvin, who was recovering from an injury, seemed close to 100% as he bolted twice for huge runs. Oklahoma's Chris Brown answered for the Sooners with an 100+ game of his own, but he did little in the second half.

The defenses asserted themselves early on. Oklahoma's opening drive ended at mid-field, but Nic Harris intercepted Tebow on Florida's first possession, Tebow's third interception the entire season. Then the Sooners were stopped, too, the only time this year they've failed to score on either of their first two possessions.

Florida drove to the Oklahoma 20, then Tebow hit Louis Murphy and he reached across the goal line for the score and a 7-0 lead. But within minutes Oklahoma had tied it: Brown ran like a knife three times through the Florida defense, then Bradford hit Jermaine Gresham in the end zone on a 7-yard strike.

The Sooner defense then intercepted Tebow for the second time of the night, doubling Tebow's interception total for the season, on a bad throw straight to Gerald McCoy inside Florida's own 30 yard line. Brown then carried five straight times: to inside the 10, inside the 5, to the goal line, then no gain on third down and stopped again going for it on fourth as Florida's defense came up with a big stop at the two.

Harvin bailed Florida out of the bad field position immediately with a 46-yard run but the Gators could do little else. After the punt, Bradford guided the Sooners downfield inside the Florida ten but he was intercepted when his throw bounced off the intended receiver and was bobbled by 2 or 3 Florida defenders before Major Wright pulled it in, keeping it 7-7 at the half.

The teams traded punts to begin the third quarter as neither offense was in synch. The Sooners even had a second chance after a roughing-the-kicker penalty but went three and out, as Mossis Madu, subbing for the injured DeMarco Murray, was not as effective running the ball as Brown.

Tebow had three nifty, helmet-down runs on the next possession as Florida drove into Oklahoma territory. Harvin took it in from the 2-yard line to give the Gators a 14-7 lead.

The Gator defense and special teams came up big with a 3rd down stop of the Sooners at the Florida 30 and a blocked field goal attempt. But after a Florida punt Oklahoma's offense drove, eased along by Florida DE Allen Davis who got an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for removing his helmet in anger, and Bradford hooked up with Gresham again for the score to tie it 14-14.

Harvin took the next handoff and had the Gators back inside the Oklahoma 30 after his second huge run--52 yards--and another for 12. A few plays later, faced with a third down, Tebow apparently thought the whistle was blown and relaxed, then had to throw the ball away. Florida kicked a field goal to take the lead, 17-14.

Bradford then suffered his second interception of the game as once again his receiver had the ball taken away from him, this time by Ahmad Black. Tebow took over again with several clutch passes including a shovel pass on 3rd down to Aaron Hernandez inside the ten. He hit David Nelson on a jump-pass for the touchdown to put the Gators up by 10, 24-14, on a drive that bled almost 7 minutes off the clock.

With three minutes left Bradford and the Sooner offense had one more chance but went four-and-out as the Florida defense clamped down yet again.

Florida finishes the season 13-1, their only loss a 1-point defeat to Mississippi, after which Tebow promised maximum effort for the rest of the year. He had over 100 yards rushing to go with his 232 passing yards, while Harvin had over 120 yard rushing on just 9 carries and added 50 yards receiving. The Gators are crowned BCS champions for the 2008 season, but other teams will dispute that; their 10-point margin was equal to the margin the Texas Longhorns had over Oklahoma mid-season.

The Sooners end 12-2, losing only to Texas and Florida who may finish #1 and #2. They beat a slew of top 25 teams but their fearsome offense, which had scored over 60 points in the last five games, missed some big opportunities in this game. Many times their hurry-up style worked, but more often they stood, looking at the sidelines waiting for the play to come in, giving Florida time to settle on defense. While Oklahoma's own defense did a good job, it was Florida's that made the difference.

2009 GMAC Bowl results - final score: Tulsa 45, Ball State13

As they have all season, Tulsa put on an offensive show to take a 45-13 4th quarter lead in the GMAC Bowl Tuesday evening.

The Golden Hurricane struck early, after Ball State's Nate Davis fumbled at midfield. David Johnson hit Damaris Johnson over the middle for 30 yards to take a 7-0 lead just three minutes into the game.

Davis fumbled at midfield again on the next drive, but made up for it one drive later by rushing for a 17-yard touchdown to tie it 7-7. Tulsa's quarterback got into the running game, too, going on a 30-yard jaunt to set up a 31-yard field goal, ending the first quarter scoring with the Golden Hurricane up 10-7.

Tarrion Adams featured prominently in the second quarter as Tulsa went to the running game to offset Ball State's pass rush which had sacked Johnson twice. Two long Johnson-to-Johnson passes were followed by four straight Adams rushes, the last a 1-yard touchdown that made it 17-7, Tulsa.

Davis' bad luck continued with an interception deep in Tulsa territory, but the Cardinals forced a punt which they blocked, giving them the ball on Tulsa's 21 yard line, roughly where the last drive ended. This time Tulsa's defense stepped up and three incompletions later the Cardinals had to kick a field goal to pull within a touchdown at 17-10.

But Adams struck again in a big way for a 56-yard touchdown and Ball State had its biggest lead of the first half at 24-10.

Ball State came back and drove inside the Tulsa 10-yard line but were stopped on the four. Another Ian McGarvey field goal ended the half with Ball State down 24-13.

The Mobile area was under a tornado watch during the game and rain started pouring down in the second half. But Johnson was undaunted by the conditions and led his team downfield culminating in a 15-yard touchdown pass to Slick Shelley. The remainder of the quarter was quiet as both teams were slowed by the wet conditions. Ball State seemed to lose their competitive fire as the quarter wore on.

The rain let up in the 4th quarter but Tulsa's offense didn't. Adams put the ball in the end zone again and the game was officially  a rout, Tulsa 38, Ball State 13. After yet another Ball State 3-and-out, Damaris Johnson galloped 62 yards on 1st down deep into Cardinal territory; David Johnson had his third touchdown pass moments later.

Adams finished with over 200 yards rushing—more yards than Johnson had through the air—and matched him with three touchdowns, and Tulsa had over 600 yards of total offense. For Ball State Davis was only 9 of 29 passing and was sacked twice to go with his interception and two lost fumbles. Ball State's 12-0 start ends with a disappointing 0-2 finish, but it's still the Cardinals' best season. Tulsa ends 11-3 with their best win since their 63-28 tarnishing of Rice earlier in the year.

2009 BCS Championship: Title Game preview, odds, and prediction - Florida vs. Oklahoma

Thursday January 8th: BCS Title Game in Miami Gardens, FL
TV coverage starts at 7:30pm eastern on Fox; kickoff between 8:05-8:15pm eastern

#2 Oklahoma Sooners (12-1) vs. #5 Florida Gators (12-1)

These teams rank #1 and #2 in my power ratings, they're both peaking right now, and the winner will almost certainly be #1 in the national polls, regardless of USC, Utah, and Texas' arguments. The game features both the 2007 and 2008 Heisman trophy winners at quarterback.

Vegas line: Florida by 4.

The Gators are a four point favorite, up from a field goal, probably due to their superior defense and perhaps a small consideration for home field advantage.

Strength Power Rating:  Florida 41.2    Oklahoma 40.7

By the Strength power rating this game is too close to call, a 41-41 tie, maybe a half-point edge for Florida. As both teams have overpowering offenses a high score is projected. The Sooners are far and away the #1 scoring offense in the country, and indeed rank as one of the best offenses of all-time in college football. But the Gators are a solid #2 on offense, and they rank much better on defense than Oklahoma, #3 to #22.

Home field advantage is normally around 3 points; if granted to Florida then the projected score becomes roughly 43-39 Gators. But Florida isn't playing at home; they're playing in-state, and closer to home than Oklahoma, but it's at five hour drive from Gainesville to Miami Gardens. The crowd may be majority Gator fans, but there will be a nearly equal contingent of Sooners. Florida should probably get a point, maybe 1.5, making them roughly a 2 point favorite by the power rating projection.

Yardage analysis:   Oklahoma 42    Florida 34

The Gators score a lot of points due to their defense and special teams play. In the game against Kentucky, for example, blocked punts led to their first two touchdowns and and the defense returned an interception for a touchdown. So when we look only at offensive yardage, they don't look quite as good as they do when scoring data is analyzed. The Gators rank only 11th in adjusted yardage on offense, while Oklahoma is still a far and away #1—almost 40 yards per game ahead of the next team. On defense the Gators rank 4th, while Oklahoma is just 38th. For the reason I just mentioned, I don't put very much stock into this projection; Florida's kick-blocking and kick-returning talent, which generates a decent chunk of their "offense", isn't represented by these stats. The gap closes to 41-35 if full home field is assigned to Florida.

When Oklahoma has the ball
Oklahoma rushing offense: #16             Florida rushing defense: #18
Oklahoma passing offense: #3               Florida passing defense: #9

Oklahoma's offense is like a machine with all perfect parts. Behind the best offensive line in the country, Sam Bradford had a Heisman-winning year throwing for 4,464 yards and 48 touchdowns against just six interceptions, and both Chris Brown and DeMarco Murray ran for over 1,000 yards. Juaquin Iglesias surpassed 1,000 receiving yards while Jermaine Gresham (12 TD catches) and two others had well over 500 each. Murray is out for the game; his replacement Mossis Madu has nearly 500 yards on the season but his average is well below that of Brown and Murray.

Oklahoma's balance on offense is matched well by Florida's defense, which has been strong against both the run and the pass. While they have given up big plays such as against Mississippi, the Gator pass defense is #2 in the nation in interceptions, which is good because they probably can't pressure Bradford effectively, as no one has except Texas and TCU, the nation's leaders in sacks. The game also matches Oklahoma's #1 red zone offense against Florida's #3 red zone defense. One bad comparison for Florida is on kickoffs, where Oklahoma ranks 5th in return average while the Gators are 88th in coverage.

When Florida has the ball
Florida rushing offense: #5           Oklahoma rushing defense: #21
Florida passing offense: #60         Oklahoma passing defense: #73

Tim Tebow passed for over 2,500 yards and 28 touchdowns and was intercepted just twice. Those numbers demonstrate that Florida's #60 ranking here is misleading; if they passed more, they would have more yardage, they just haven't needed to pass very much. The running game boast five players with over 400 yards: Chris Rainey, Jeffery Demps, Tebow, Percy Harvin, and Emmanuel Moody.

Florida's offense would seem to have a strong edge in both departments over Oklahoma's defense, which has been suspect all season and dependent on the offense to bail them out. Florida's O is strong in the red zone while Oklahoma's defense is average there, and Oklahoma is decent at intercepting passes but Tebow throws almost none, ever. The Sooners may have luck pressuring Tebow, as they rank #3 in sacks, but with Tebow's running ability that is mitigated. Also, and perhaps the most glaring comparison comes on special teams: Oklahoma ranks 105th in kick return defense, while Florida boasts return specialist Brandon James. James is best on punt returns, however, and Oklahoma's punt coverage is quite good. Still, look for Florida to exploit Oklahoma's weakness on kickoffs as much as the Sooners do when the Gators kick off.

Game-comparison win %
Oklahoma              47%
Florida                  53%  

Both teams' game-performances rate high across the board, but Florida wins a few more than Oklahoma among the 169 comparisons, and gains a few percentage points more if home field advantage is assigned.

Oklahoma's key games

Wins over bowl teams (7)

• #13 Cincinnati 52-26 (2nd game of season)
• #11 TCU 35-10 (4th)
  
• Kansas 45-31 (7th)
• Nebraska 62-28 (9th)
• #3 Texas Tech 65-21 (11th)
• @ #12 Oklahoma State 61-41 (12th)
  
• = Missouri 62-21 (13th)

Losses (1):

• = #1 Texas 45-35

Oklahoma has beaten seven bowl teams, including four top 25 teams; all seven wins were by 14 points or more, five by 25 or more, and two by over 40. Five of the games were played at home, though, with only one win on the road. The Sooners' other road victims were Washington, Baylor, Kansas State, and Texas A&M—all teams with losing records.

After the loss to Texas, Oklahoma has played steadily better as their offense exceeded even its lofty pre-season expectations, resulting in two off-the-chart performances in obliterating Texas Tech and Missouri. Their worst game? Probably the opener against Chattanooga, where they gave up a safety. The Texas loss was still a strong performance, and they've put that behind them completely.

Florida's key games

Wins over bowl teams (9):

• Hawaii 56-10 (1st game of season)
• Miami FL 26-3 (2nd)
• LSU 51-21 (6th)
• Kentucky 63-5 (7th)
• = #17 Georgia 49-10 (8th)
• @ Vanderbilt 42-14 (9th)
• South Carolina 56-6 (10th)
• @ Florida State 45-15 (12th)
• = #6 Alabama 31-20 (13th)

Losses (1):

• #24 Mississippi 31-30

Florida beat a whopping nine bowl teams, two more than the next closest teams (Oklahoma and surprisingly, Pittsburgh). But only two teams were end-of-season top 25 squads, and only two were true road games.

They way in which they won can't be questioned. Other than the Mississippi game, Florida has played at a high level all year, though they peaked a few games after the loss and Tebow's vow to play harder than any team has ever played. The wins over Kentucky, Georgia, and South Carolina were astounding performances on offense, defense, and special teams.

Though it's understandable that they weren't as hyped to play The Citadel (who scored 19 points) in game 11, and were recharged to play FSU in game 12, the competitive game against Alabama raises eyebrows: did the Gators get used to slaughtering good but not great teams? Confronted with a top ten squad they played a solid game, but showed vulnerability. Coming into the championship game we should see Florida at its peak once again, I believe, and having Percy Harvin back will help.

Psychology

Both teams should be "up" mentally; they both lost a game this season and are lucky to be here. And having lost, they won't be underestimating their foe, or expecting an easy win.

Both teams are well-coached, likewise. Though the Sooners have gone through a bowl win drought recently while Florida has thrived under Urban Meyer, remember that Florida lost in their bowl game last year while the Sooners have consistently played some of the best teams. They won four straight bowls under Bob Stoops after the 1999-2000 season, then lost to BCS champs LSU and USC the next two years. They beat Oregon the next year, then lost to Boise State and West Virginia the last two seasons. In all of these losses, they faced a team that was at least their equal, not teams they should have expected to beat necessarily. They're in a similar situation now against Florida. Their bowl "curse" only applies if they let it apply to them.

Recent comments by Oklahoma cornerback Dominique Franks—that Tebow would be considered the fourth-best quarterback in the Big Twelve—might fire up Tebow's teammates, who took offense to the comment. Tebow is going to play tough regardless. Sometimes these comments have a "feedback" loop where the team that made the comment plays worse, in addition to the other team getting fired up, but the Sooners will play the same as they always do. As disses go, this one is pretty minor, as Tebow has already proved himself time and time again, so a necessary element—that a team/player or offense/defense doesn't get enough respect—is missing for making this really a locker-room rallying point. Still, it was probably not a wise thing to say, as it suggests overconfidence—or fear—from a defense that is going to have its hands full.

Final analysis

It's an interesting game. Neither of these teams can argue that they should definitely be playing in the BCS championship game, but they are certainly the two best teams in college football right now, and that includes USC, Texas, and Utah.

Oklahoma's offense is pretty much unstoppable, but Florida matches up surprisingly well with them in terms of rushing and passing defense. The plays on which Mississippi burned them are troubling, but they've improved since then and have a good chance of getting an interception or two on the normally mistake-free Bradford. Having DeMarco Murray out might not hurt the Sooners when running the ball, but it can't be a good thing. While Brown is still there, Murray's replacement averages just 4.2 yards per carry, nearly a yard and a half less than Murray.

Florida's offense, on the other hand, ought to have a good day against Oklahoma's defense. That doesn't necessarily mean they can keep up with the Sooners, but then again it might be Oklahoma that has to play catch-up with the Gators. Special teams adds another dimension where Florida can make up any gap on offense. Florida's punting game is far better than Oklahoma's, and the Gators have blocked seven kicks this year to the Sooners' one.

It should be a higher-scoring game, as both teams will have success on offense, and on kicking plays, too, both teams are vulnerable. Overall Florida's defense is much better and that may make the difference when it comes down to who scores most consistently. In addition, a number of small factors tilt the game Florida's way: Better defense that matches up better; a slight home crowd advantage; Murray's absense; and the fact that Oklahoma plays considerably better at home. Oklahoma has only faced two teams with defenses close to as good as Florida's #3 squad: #4 Texas and #2 TCU. Both held the Sooners to 35 points, which lowers the bar considerably for Tebow and Florida to keep up on offense. Texas—the only team to beat Oklahoma—has a similar profile to Florida: top five in scoring offense and scoring defense, with a solid quarterback who can run the ball. The similarities may end there, but it solidifies my conviction that the Gators have the edge.

Prediction: Florida 37   Oklahoma 35

2009 Fiesta Bowl results - final score: Texas 24, Ohio State 21

Colt McCoy and Quan Cosby hooked up for the winning touchdown with 16 second left to lift the Longhorns to a 24-21 Fiesta Bowl victory over the Ohio State Buckeyes Monday evening. Cosby had 174 receiving yards and two touchdowns, both thrown by McCoy who rushed for Texas' other score.

The game was much more competitive than Ohio State's last two bowl appearances; this time the Buckeyes took the lead before the final drive and the game was hard-fought throughout. A staunch defense and Beanie Wells' rushing in the first half, then Terrelle Pryor's play in the second—with occasional worthy assists from the former starter, senior Todd Boeckman—kept the game within reach for Ohio State.

In fact the Buckeyes led 6-3 at the break, as the defense never let McCoy quite get on track. When he finally started to, near the end of the half, a goal-line interception by Anderson Russell killed what looked like a sure scoring drive.

Ohio State took the lead at 3-0 in the first quarter on a 50-yard Aaron Pettrey field goal; he later missed one of a similar length on a bad hold. Both attempts were set up by 20+ yard rambles by Wells, who had nearly all of his 105 yards in the first half.

Texas was able to tie it 3-3, but Wells again put Ohio State into Longhorn territory, bursting for a 23 yard gain and catching a screen pass for 21 more on a drive that ended with a Ryan Pretorius field goal.

Texas made some adjustments for the second half, and for the entire third quarter basically shut Wells down (he didn't play in the fourth quarter, apparently due to a minor head injury). They sped up the game on offense considerably, catching the Buckeyes offguard—and sometimes offsides—as they drove for two touchdowns in the quarter. The first ended in McCoy's 14 yard rushing TD, the second in a McCoy to Cosby 7 yard touchdown, putting Texas in control 17-6.

But the Buckeyes did not fold like they had in their last several games against top competition. Pryor, mainly through running the ball, kept Ohio State drives alive, and Boeckman came in when needed on passing downs. On the first play of the fourth quarter Boeckman connected with Brian Robiskie for a 48-yard gain that led to another Pettrey field goal. Robiskie had 115 receiving yards and some simply great catches.

Then Pryor ran and passed the Buckeyes into the Texas red zone again, and in a remarkably symbolic play Boeckman came in to throw a touchdown pass into the corner—with Pryor at receiver. Jim Tressel went for two and failed, making it 17-15.

After a rare Texas 3-and-out, Pryor and Boeckman went to work again and it was Daniel Herron rushing for the touchdown from 15 yards out. Another 2 point attempt failed, leaving the Buckeyes up 21-17 with just over 2 minutes left. But like Texas did against Texas Tech, Ohio State had left too much time on the clock when they took the lead.

Starting on his own 21 yard line, McCoy calmly completed 4 of 5 passes to get into Buckeye territory, but incompletions left Texas at fourth and a long two. McCoy hit James Kirkendoll, who spun as he was tackled to just get the first down. He was tackled behind the mark, making Tressel and the rest of the Buckeye sidelines so sure they'd stopped him that they called for a review, but replays showed the spot was correct.

Two plays later, Cosby caught McCoy's short dump over the top, shook a defender and strode 26 yards to the end zone with 16 seconds left, making it 24-21. A celebration penalty gave the Buckeyes a small hope of reaching Pettrey's range as they started on their 45 yard line, but Boeckman was sacked once and his subsequent Hail Mary was batted down.

For the day Texas' passing defense did a good job against the Buckeyes, with Pryor and Boeckman a combined 10 of 25 for well under 200 yards. Though Jimmy Johnson stated the Longhorn pass defense ranked 110th nationally, that's in raw yardage, which doesn't take into account the fact that Texas faced five of the top ten passing teams in the country this season. Adjusted for schedule, the Longhorns were a much-more-respectable 46th heading into the game.

Texas finishes an incredible year 12-1, with wins over Rice, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Ohio State, and most significantly, Oklahoma, all teams with 4 or fewer losses, and one loss to Texas Tech on a last-second play. They didn't beat the Buckeyes as badly as USC by any means but I expected as much due to letdown (I pegged the final at 24-17), but viewing the season as a whole their overall résumé is arguably superior to any other team's, and they have a strong argument for finishing #1 in the final AP poll.

Ohio State ends 10-3, losing only to three top ten teams, and they will finish close to the top ten themselves. The team came a long way after the embarrassing loss to USC, playing Penn State close and Texas even closer, while beating Michigan State and Northwestern in blowouts. While not approaching their pre-season potential, eventually the defense regained its dominance and the offense—shook up by Wells' early-season injury and the change at quarterback—started to click. They won't have as many starters back next year, with James Laurinaitis and (likely) Wells departing in particular, but Pryor will just keep getting better and better.

2009 Fiesta Bowl preview, odds, & prediction: Texas vs. Ohio State

Monday January 5th: Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, AZ 8:00 pm eastern

#1 Texas Longhorns (11-1) vs. #10 Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2)

Texas didn't get their shot at the BCS title game; instead they get their shot at the Buckeyes, whom the Rose Bowl contestants both defeated. Will they play up to their ability?

Vegas line: Texas by 8.

The Longhorns are 8 to 8 1/2 point favorites.

Strength Power Rating:  Texas 29    Ohio State 16

The Strength power rating makes Texas a 13 point favorite. The Buckeye offense is the weak link; despite Terrelle Pryor and Chris Wells, they rank just 29th in the nation in adjusted scoring average. They're very strong on defense, though, ranking #5 in the nation, but the Longhorns are #4, and they're #4 on offense as well.

Yardage analysis:   Texas 28    Ohio State 14

By yardage Texas is still in the top ten in both categories, ranking 10th in offense and 6th in defense. Ohio State still ranks 5th on defense but is a middling 66th on offensive yardage production. So how do they rank 29th in scoring? By being tied for #1—with Oklahoma—in red zone percentage. When they get inside the 20, they come away with points almost all the time, earning more bang for the buck on their yardage. Texas, by the way, ranks 6th in red zone defense, so the Buckeyes might not be able to count on their normal success rate. It will be interesting to see what happens near Texas' goal line.

When Ohio State has the ball
Ohio State rushing offense: #17           Texas rushing defense: #4
Ohio State passing offense: #107         Texas passing defense: #46

While Pryor's passing has been efficient and improved throughout the season, it's used sparingly compared to the run, which features both Pryor and Wells as threats. In fact, #17 is a lowball ranking for the team's current rushing attack, since several games where Boeckman started and Wells was injured or not 100% are included. The Longhorns' rushing defense can still probably handle a top ten rushing offense, but the dual-threat quarterback throws a curve into it. Will the Buckeyes give Texas a taste of their own medicine from a few years back?

When Texas has the ball
Texas rushing offense: #40             Ohio State rushing defense: #26
Texas passing offense: #10             Ohio State passing defense: #7

OSU's rushing defense is the (relatively) weak link in their defense. Texas' ground game starts with quarterback Colt McCoy, who has 576 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. The Longhorns have a few other backs, like Vondrell McGee (376 yards) and Cody Johnson (12 touchdowns), but McCoy's option runs have been more effective. If the Buckeye pass rush gets pressure on McCoy his running will be even more important. In all Ohio State matches up pretty well here, but they haven't faced a passer as accurate as McCoy.

Game-comparison win %
Texas                  80%
Ohio State           20%  

When all 144 game-comparisons (each team's 12 games, cross-compared) are tallied up, Texas comes out ahead in just over 4/5 of the matchups. Unless Ohio State plays exceedingly well, or Texas very poorly—or both—the Longhorns are the likely winner.

Texas' key games

Wins over bowl teams (6)

• Florida Atl. 52-10 (1st game of season)
• Rice 52-10 (3rd game)
• = #2 Oklahoma 45-35 (6th)
• Missouri 56-31 (7th)
• #12 Oklahoma State 28-24 (8th)
• @ Kansas 25-7 (11th)

Losses (1):

• @ #3 Texas Tech 39-33

To start the season, Texas beat three out of their first four foes by the identical score of 52-10. These victims included bowl winners Florida Atlantic and Rice.

Then in the middle of the season, they defeated three top teams, including BCS title contender Oklahoma. They fell on a last-second play at Texas Tech, then rolled to three more wins.

Despite beating Oklahoma head-to-head, the Longhorns didn't make the Big 12 championship game. But they still think they have a shot at #1 in the AP poll if Oklahoma wins a close game and they can dominate the Buckeyes.

Texas really has yet to play a poor game, period. Their narrow road loss to Texas Tech was no worse a game than their home win over Oklahoma State, and those were their worst games of the year. The worst you can say is they've played a bad half here and there, but not many.

Ohio State's key games

Wins over bowl teams (5):

• Troy 28-10 (4th game of season)
• Minnesota 34-21 (5th)
• @ Wisconsin 20-17 (6th)
• @ #19 Michigan State 45-7 (8th)
• @ #21 Northwestern 45-10 (10th)
  

Losses (2):

• @ #7 USC 35-3
• #8 Penn State 13-6

Ohio State began the year a national favorite, with a slew of talent back from last year's (premature) BCS title game competitor. But once Beanie Wells went out with an injury in the opener against Youngstown State, something was wrong.

They struggled to beat Ohio, 26-14; then at USC, they were dominated by the Trojans. It wasn't just the offense that had trouble—that was expected with Wells out. But the defense, which was the country's best in 2007 and had almost everyone back, looked awful.

As a result of the USC debacle, Todd Boeckman was benched in favor of Terrelle Pryor, which further stalled the offense's recovery; while Pryor added dimension and potential to the offense, he lacked experience and consistency. The Buckeyes sneaked to 28-10 and 34-21 wins over Troy and Minnesota at home, escaped from Wisconsin with a 20-17 win and edged Purdue 16-3. During this time Wells had returned and was getting his speed back, and Pryor was getting used to the offense.

When they played Michigan State, everything came together. Wells was 100%, Pryor played great, and the defense nearly shut out the Spartans.

Hosting undefeated Penn State on October 25, Nittany Lions were too tough and the Buckeyes barely lost. It showed that they could now stay with a top ten team, albeit at home. The main difference was the play of the defense, which was far better than against USC.

The Bucks continued where they had left off, closing out with three wins and making it to a BCS bowl, where they will get their shot at another top ten team, this time on neutral territory. You can see clearly the slope of Ohio State's improvement in the chart from week 2 when Wells was out, through his recovery and Pryor's increasing experience helping the offense. The defense should be ready, but has the offense under Pryor improved enough to meet the challenge?

Psychology

Texas wants to prove it's the #1 team in the country, and they don't really have that chance here. They'd have to beat Ohio State worse than 35-3 to quiet those who are saying USC deserves consideration. And with the Big Ten's record this bowl season, if it's a close game at all many won't listen to pro-Longhorn arguments.

When you have to start thinking about how much you must beat a team by, you sometimes lose focus of the fact that you'd better make sure you win by at least 1 point. That's the risk Texas faces.

Ohio State has nothing to lose in this game, but could they be underconfident? Seeing the Big Ten go down bowl game after bowl game can't help their confidence. They're facing a team roughly as good as USC. If they catch them on the wrong day, it could be ugly like Ohio State's last several big non-conference games. But catch them on the right day and with their defense, they could pull of the upset, so that's what they should focus on. I'm not sure what it means that Jim Tressel didn't allow Pryor to be interviewed at the Fiesta Bowl media day events, but it's probably wise to keep the freshman out of the spotlight before the game.

Final analysis

Texas clearly rates as a better team than the Buckeyes, and the Longhorns have beaten better teams than Ohio State has. The game will be a test between the two quarterbacks.

Ohio State's offense depends a lot on Wells and Pryor, while Texas depends on McCoy a lot, too, their offense has years of experience with him a the helm, while the Buckeyes are just now getting fully used to how the offense runs with Pryor as opposed to Boeckman, the starter last year (and this year's first several games). And as much as Pryor may confuse the Longhorn D, Ohio State's defense might not be quite prepared for McCoy, either.

As for Wells, he was held to 55 yards by a similar quality rushing defense against Penn State. And for all the talent between Wells and Pryor, shouldn't Ohio State have a more explosive offense? This is Pryor's test: realize the potential of this offense.

Emotionally, Texas must be in an odd place. Confident, yet not in control of their destiny; proud of their achievements but disappointed at the ultimate results. A letdown here is definitely a possibility. The test for Colt McCoy will be to see to it that it doesn't happen.

Prediction: Texas 24   Ohio State 17

2009 International Bowl results - Brown's 261 yards power UConn over Buffalo - final score: 38-20

Donald Brown broke the 2,000 yard mark for the season, rushing for a career best 261 yards as Connecticut came back to beat Buffalo 38-20.

Brown, who wasn't even a finalist for the Doak Walker award, had 208 yards in the first half alone. After the game, like Walker winner Shonn Greene of Iowa, Brown announced he was headed to the NFL, forgoing his senior year.

Despite Brown's output the Bulls had a 20-10 lead in the 2nd quarter due mostly to the Huskies committing three consecutive turnovers on fumbles. But UConn rallied, and Tyler Lorenzen had two touchdown runs and passed for another as the Huskies scored 28 straight points to beat the MAC champions.

2009 Sugar Bowl results - Utah makes a case for #1; final score: Utah 31 Alabama 17

Brian Johnson led the fired-up Utah Utes to a perfect season as they controlled the game and beat Alabama 31-17 in the Sugar Bowl Friday evening. Johnson had 336 yards and 3 touchdowns on 27 of 41 passing as Utah dominated the game from the start and the defense wouldn't let the Crimson Tide back in it.

The defense keyed Utah's 21-0 first quarter spurt that set the tone for the game. The Utes stopped Alabama's first drive with a 3rd down sack, after which Johnson completed five straight passes, the last one 7 yards for a touchdown to Brent Casteel.

On Alabama's next series, Robert Johnson intercepted quarterback John Parker Wilson, giving Utah the ball on Alabama's 32. Five plays later Matt Asiata ran the ball in from 2 yards out, making it 14-0.

Another sack gave Alabama 4th-and-double digits on their next drive to force a punt. Brian Johnson passed the ball three times and rushed once, setting up his 18-yard TD throw to Brandon Godfrey that put the Utes up 21-0 just 11 minutes into the game.

At that point Alabama had less than 10 yards of offense. On their next drive they pierced Utah territory and threatened, but yet another 3rd down sack of Wilson forced a 52-yard field goal attempt. The Tide got on the board to start the 2nd quarter 21-3.

Alabama's only big play of the first half came after a Utah punt, when Javier Arenas took it back 73 yards for a touchdown. The Tide defense started playing better, and the half ended giving Alabama some hope at 21-10.

Things got even better for Alabama early in the second half. Johnson was sacked on the opening drive and fumbled, giving the Tide the ball well into Ute territory. Several plays later Wilson hooked up with Glen Coffee for a 4-yard touchdown throw and just like that Alabama was back in it, 21-17. Wilson was 18 of 30 for 178 yards on the day while Coffee had 13 rushes for just 36 yards.

With the score getting close, Johnson went to work again, driving the team downfield. From Utah's 29, he passed every down, completing 4 of 7 for gains of 33, 10, 5, and a 28-yard touchdown to David Reed; the Utes added to their cushion and led 28-17.

From there, the Ute defense continued to do its job bottling up the Tide while on offense, Utah ran time off the clock and Louie Sakoda's punts kept Alabama starting deep in their own territory. Sakoda added a field goal in the final minutes to make it 31-17.

Alabama's last two drives ended badly, once when Wilson was sacked and fumbled the ball, and later on an interception. Wilson was intercepted twice and sacked eight times by the Utah defense.

Utah finishes the year a perfect 13-0, having beaten four ranked teams: TCU, BYU, Oregon State, and most impressively, Alabama. No team in college football has a better résumé, with only Oklahoma clearly having more big wins. They beat Alabama more completely than Florida did, and unlike USC they handled Oregon State. Utah certainly has an argument to be considered the #1 team. Right now I have them third at worst, behind Texas and Oklahoma. If both those teams lose, I'll put them #1 for sure. Otherwise we'll have to see what happens in those teams' games.

As for Alabama, they ended a surprisingly good season with a down note, two losses in a row. Some of their bigger victories—over Clemson, LSU, even Georgia—don't seem as impressive in retrospect. But their only losses are to 1-loss Florida and undefeated Utah, so they belong in the top ten. It's hard to know where to put them among all the other 1- and 2-loss teams, and a lot depends on what Florida does. Currently they'll place about 7th with me, just behind TCU, who lost to Oklahoma and Utah, but gave Utah a better game, though if Florida beats Oklahoma the Tide may rank ahead of TCU. And next year was the year they were supposed to be good, anyway, so their future is pretty bright in any case.

2009 Liberty Bowl results - final score: Kentucky 25, East Carolina 19

The Kentucky Wildcats returned two fumbles for touchdowns on the same series—the first was overruled upon review—to beat East Carolina 25-19, overcoming a 16-3 first half deficit.

The action was slow in the first quarter, East Carolina taking a 3-0 lead while Kentucky missed their own attempt. But things heated up early in the second quarter with the Pirates scoring a touchdown on a 28-yard Brandon Simmons run. Lones Seiber put Kentucky on the board on the next drive to make it 10-3.

After a touchback kickoff, ECU had the first "play of the game." Patrick Pinkney dodged a potential sack and found Darryl Freeney down the sideline for an 80-yard touchdown and the Pirates—after a blocked extra point—were up 16-3 at the half.

The second "play of the game" came on the kickoff that started the second half. Kentucky's David Jones caught the ball at the 1 and took it 99 yards, drawing the Wildcats within 7 and giving them the momentum immediately.

East Carolina returned the favor of the blocked extra point, however, leaving it 16-9 Pirates, but Kentucky tied the game mid-way through the 3rd on Mike Hartline's TD pass to Kyrus Lanxter.

Kickers Hartman and Seiber, making up for their PAT flubs, each added a field goal to make it 19-19 early in the fourth quarter.

Then came "plays of the game" 3A and 3B. With four minutes left Pinkney, who had been shaken up on the previous series, scrambled and was tackled, fumbling the ball. Kentucky returned the fumble for a touchdown. Fortunately for East Carolina, upon review, Pinkney's knee was judged to have been down.

But two plays later, East Carolina fumbled again, and Kentucky lineman Ventrell Jenkins rambled in for another potential touchdown, delivering a smashing stiff-arm to Pinkney's face to get in the end zone. This time the play was confirmed by the officials. Kentucky took their first lead at 25-19 after yet another blocked extra point, and East Carolina didn't threaten again.

The Wildcats finish a 7-6 season on a high note, while the Pirates, after making waves with early upsets of Virginia Tech and West Virginia, fall to 9-5.

2009 Cotton Bowl results - final score: Mississippi 47, Texas Tech 34

A wild Cotton Bowl ended with Mississippi on top, 47-34, as the Rebel defense did just enough to keep Graham Harrell at bay while Jevan Snead and the offense rolled.

Snead passed for 298 yards and three touchdowns and Mississippi racked up 230 more on the ground, with Dexter McCluster racking up a combined 182 yards of offense. Harrell had four touchdown passes, setting the NCAA career record, and surpassed the 5,000 yard mark for the season but was intercepted twice.

It started off well for Texas Tech; Harrell had his first touchdown throw on Tech's 2nd drive, and three plays later the Red Raider defense intercepted Snead for another touchdown, making it a quick 14-0.

But Snead came right back with two touchdown throws of his own, the second one a 42-yarder to Mike Wallace.

Harrell and Tech regained the lead with a 2-yard pass to Michael Crabtree. One of the nation's leading receivers and the Red Raiders' biggest threat, Crabtree was slowed by the injury he suffered in the last game against Baylor and had just four catches on the day for 30 yards.

The Rebels tied it at 21 with Snead's second TD pass to Gerald Harris, and a Joshua Shene field goal made it 24-21. That was the score at half, though Harrell, on a 4th and 5, nearly broke a run from mid-field for a touchdown, going 44 yards all the way to inside the Mississippi ten as time ran out.

Then it was the Rebel defense's turn to take an interception back to the house. Harrell was picked for 65 yards, giving Ole Miss a 10 point lead. Harrell was later stopped on 4th down from Tech's own 37, leading to another Rebel touchdown, this time Brandon Bolden from 17 yards out. Mississippi was up 38-21, and the writing was on the wall at the end of the 3rd quarter.

But with Texas Tech's high-flying attack, nothing is certain. Harrell's second TD to Edward Britten cut the lead to 10. Undaunted, the Rebel offense marched right back downfield to Texas Tech's three yard line, where Enrique Davis appeared to be heading for another Rebel touchdown but fumbled near the goal line; Tech recovered inside the two. However, Harrell was sacked in the end zone for a safety, making it 40-28, and after the ensuing free kick Mississippi scored yet again, and it was turning into a rout with 4 1/2 minutes left, Mississippi 47, Texas Tech 28.

Texas Tech scored one more time, Harrell throwing to Eric Morris with 1 1/2 minutes left, but the two-point attempt was no good. Worse for the Raiders, they received two personal fouls applied on the kickoff that pushed the tee back to the 8 yard line, so their onside kick attempt was recovered by Mississippi on the Texas Tech 18.

Mississippi finishes the season 9-4 in their first year under Houston Nutt and has recently upped their game to a new level. The Rebels had been winning since they were 3-4, but it's only been the last four games (including this one), that they've been playing at this level. Beating ULM 59-0, LSU 31-13, Mississippi State 45-0, and now Texas Tech 47-34, they recaptured the potential they showed in beating Florida early on. After four losing seasons, the program is back.

Texas Tech falls to 11-2, their dream season ending badly. The converse of Mississippi, their last three games were far below their performance all season, and a bowl letdown seemed a clear possibility. But they had that letdown, unfortunately, against perhaps the hottest team in college football.

2009 International Bowl preview, odds, & prediction: Connecticut vs. Buffalo

Saturday January 3rd: International Bowl in Toronto, Canada 12:00 noon eastern

Buffalo Bulls (8-5) vs. Connecticut Huskies (7-5)

The scourge of the minor January bowl still afflicts college football, but these are two teams I like, Buffalo for Turner Gill and UConn for Donald Brown.

Vegas line: UConn by 6 1/2.

The Huskies are a healthy favorite to beat the Bulls.

Strength Power Rating:  Connecticut 27    Buffalo 23

Buffalo is better in scoring offense than Connecticut, outranking them 41st to 61st, but the Huskies have a bigger advantage on defense, 30th to 76th. Combined, this leads to a projection of a narrow Connecticut win. Buffalo is playing a lot closer to home, which could narrow the projected spread further, but considering the game is in a different country and UConn is in roughly the same region I don't see giving the Bulls more than a point for it, possibly.

Yardage analysis:   Connecticut 31   Buffalo 16

The Huskies offense ranks 61st both by adjusted yardage and adjust scoring,  but their defense is even stingier with yards that points, ranking #9 in the nation by that measure. Buffalo fares less well, ranking 62nd on offense and 89th on defense, both numbers lower than their scoring rankings. This leads to a wider margin for the Huskies.

One reason the Bulls offense may score more points than their yardage would indicate is that they limit turnovers; Buffalo is 5th in the country in fewest turnovers with just 13 on the season.

When Connecticut has the ball
Connecticut rushing offense: #11           Buffalo rushing defense: #92
Connecticut passing offense: #110         Buffalo passing defense: #95

UConn's #61 offensive ranking makes some sense—they're nearly top ten in rushing yardage, and nearly bottom 10 in passing yardage. Donald Brown is the nation's leading rusher, averaging over 150 yards per game, and needs 178 to pass 2,000 yards for the season. With Tyler Lorenzen hurt most of the year UConn's quarterbacks have been dismal this season, throwing just 4 touchdown passes and 17(!) interceptions. Given that Buffalo's defense is homogenously weak, the Huskies should hand the ball off the Donald Brown every single down. That's just barely an exagerration.

When Buffalo has the ball
Buffalo rushing offense: #77             Connecticut rushing defense: #27
Buffalo passing offense: #42             Connecticut passing defense: #11

Buffalo has a quarterback that UConn wishes it had. Drew Willy has passed for over 3,000 yards and has a 5:1 TD to int ratio, throwing 25 TDs and just 5 interceptions. Throw in 1,000 yard rusher James Starks and you have the makings of a strong offense, though Buffalo's competition has been fairly weak on defense in general. Connecticut has the means to slow down both the run and the pass, ranking high in interceptions. It will be a test to see if they can pick off Willy, who only has one interception in the last seven games.

Game-comparison win %
Buffalo               40%
Connecticut        60%  

UConn has a slight but solid edge when game performances are cross-compared. If you give Buffalo full home field advantage it narrows considerably, but the Huskies still win the majority.

Connecticut's key games

Wins over bowl teams (1)

• #13 Cincinnati 40-16 (8th game of season)

Losses (5):

• @ North Carolina 38-12
• @ Rutgers 12-10
• West Virginia 35-13
• @ South Florida 17-13
• #20 Pittsburgh 34-10

Connecticut beat only one bowl team this year, but it was a good, dominant win over Big East champ Cincinnati. Other highlights were their 45-10 pasting of Virginia in game three, which nearly matched USC's score against the Cavaliers. Other than that, there wasn't much, as Cincy was the only team with a winning record the Huskies beat. For road wins, they needed overtime to beat Temple, 12-9, in game 2; defeated Louisville 26-21 (game 5); and clobbered Syracuse 39-14 (game 10).

On the other hand they didn't lose to any losing teams. They played Rutgers and South Florida close on the road, but had terrible games in losing to North Carolina, West Virginia, and Pitt by an average of 24 points.

Buffalo's key games

Wins over bowl teams (1):

• #14 Ball State 42-24 (13th game of season)

Losses (5):

• @ #20 Pittsburgh 27-16
• @ Missouri 42-21
• @ Central Michigan 27-25
• Western Michigan 34-28ot
• Kent State 24-21
  

Like UConn the Bulls had only one bowl team victory, but it was a doozy, knocking Ball State off their undefeated perch. Apart from that, their record is similar to UConn's: no other wins over winning teams. They also lost to common opponent Pittsburgh, beat Temple in a very close game. They did have one loss to a non-bowl team, however, losing to Kent State 24-21 in their worst effort of the season. But they followed that with the Ball State win.

What's interesting about Buffalo is their series of close games, most of them wins. After crushing UTEP in their opener, they went 1-4 to tough competition. In that stretch they beat Temple on a last-second pass, missed a game-winning field goal against Central Michigan, and lost in overtime to Western Michigan, who hit a last-second TD pass of their own to force the extra period. The Bulls finished 6-1, though, beating Army as a tying field goal missed, beating Akron in four overtimes, and beating Bowling Green in double overtime. The loss to Kent State made seven games that could have gone either way, putting the Bulls as good as 11-2 or as bad as 3-9.

Psychology

Buffalo is a team on a roll. Coach Turner Gill, turned down by Auburn and even more inexplicably by Syracuse, will be back next season. Fans are excited about the bowl game, which is within driving distance across the border. They've won six of their last seven games and are coming off the school's biggest win over undefeated Ball State to win the MAC crown.

Connecticut's year was a step down. It wasn't unexpected, and they did better than a lot of people though they would this season, though they limped to a 2-5 finish. In terms of this bowl game, there might not seem to be much point to it for players and fans.

Final analysis

Buffalo may have the emotional edge, but UConn matches up with them quite well on offense and defense. Special teams might be a different matter, as UConn has had six punts blocked this year and kicker Tony Caravino missed three field goals against both Temple and Rutgers. But the Huskie defense should slow down Willy and the Bulls, and Donald Brown looks to have a big game.

Even Lorenzen, with a month off to heal, may be in better form. He was much better last season, and since the injury he hasn't played well. Luckily, Buffalo doesn't intercept many passes, but then again maybe Connecticut won't have to go to the air.

Buffalo beat Ball State, so they have a chance against Connecticut. They're certainly on more of a roll and should have good crowd support in Toronto. But I think Donald Brown will have a great day with a good chance of surpassing 2,000 yards for the season, and get in the end zone multiple times for the Huskies, who will have to fight to keep this game from being another one of Buffalo's nail-biters.

Prediction:  Connecticut 31   Buffalo 28

2009 Orange Bowl results - final score: Virginia Tech 20, Cincinnati 7

Virginia Tech's defense came up big all day, and stopped Cincinnati on 4th down from the one yard line mid-way through the fourth quarter to preserve a 20-7 victory. Running back Darren Evans, quarterback Tyrod Taylor, and kicker Dustin Keys provided what little offense the Hokies needed to win the game.

After Cincinnati quarterback Tony Pike's TD throw on the Bearcats' first drive—a 15-yard strike to Marcus Gilyard—the Hokies scored twenty unanswered points in the 2nd through 4th quarters. Taylor rushed for a 17-yard score, then Keys hit a 43-yard field goal at the end of the half to give Virginia Tech a 10-7 lead.  Another field goal on the first drive of the 3rd quarter made it 13-7.

The Hokie defense frustrated Cincinnati's offense, forcing punts and intercepting Pike four times. The third interception came in the fourth quarter and put Virgina at the Cincinnati 10 yard line, leading to the last touchdown, a six-yard Evans run. Evans finished with 154 yards.

With twelve minutes left in the game Pike drove Cincinnati down to the Hokie four yard line. Two incompletions and a short run left them at fourth and one. Pike attempted to run it in but was stopped by the Hokie defense, which held Cincinnati under 75 rushing yards for the day. 

A Tech drive ran all but two minutes off the clock, and once Cincinnati got the ball back Pike was intercepted immediately yet again.

Virginia Tech improves to 10-4 on the year, their fifth 10-win season in a row, something only Texas and USC can also claim. Cincinnati falls to 11-3, their second 10-win season in a row but only their second in the history of the program as a I-A team.

2009 Sugar Bowl preview, odds, & prediction: Utah vs. Alabama

Friday January 2nd: Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA 8:00 pm eastern

#4 Utah Utes (12-0) vs. #6 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1)

The only game other than the BCS title game to feature two teams with 12 wins.

Vegas line: Alabama by 9.

Alabama is a big favorite in the oddsmakers' eyes, ranging from 9 to 10 points.

Strength Power Rating:      Alabama 26   Utah 25

But the Strength power rating has these teams matched almost perfectly evenly, with Alabama ranking 9th and Utah 13th. Both teams have had close calls and both have wins over strong competition. One possible factor is home field advantage, as Alabama will be playing much closer to home and have the bigger crowd, but I wouldn't give more than a point or two to the Tide.

Alabama's defense is a solid #8 to Utah's #20, while their offense ranks 23rd to Utah's #14.

Yardage analysis:   Alabama 21   Utah 17

By yardage the Tide margin grows a bit. In yardage the Tide defense is third in the country, the offense just 39th. Utah's defense is good, too, ranking 12th, and the offense 31st. With the defenses ranking higher and offenses lower, this leads to a lower scoring projection, but both squads have defenses and special teams that add to the effectiveness of their offenses.

When Alabama has the ball
Alabama rushing offense: #17           Utah rushing defense: #13
Alabama passing offense: #89           Utah passing defense: #35

The key matchup here is Alabama's ground game against Utah's rushing defense, both of which rank in the top 25 nationally. Glen Coffee has 1,347 yards this season, and Mark Ingram adds 702 yards and 12 touchdowns. This is the Tide's main weapon on offense, and the passing game sometimes plays off that success to be effective itself, sometimes not. John Parker Wilson has had another mixed year, leading the team effectively but not spectacularly, but with receiver Julio Jones in the mix the passing game is always  a potential threat, meaning the Utes can't focus on the run.

When Utah has the ball
Utah rushing offense: #39             Alabama rushing defense: #5
Utah passing offense: #37             Alabama passing defense: #23

Utah has a balanced, solid but not overwhelming offense. Quarterback Brian Johnson is "the man" for Utah, and can be unstoppable when Utah needs points. Completing 68% of his throws for 2,636 yards and 24 touchdowns against 9 interceptions, Johnson is a running threat, too. Alabama's defensive line will provide a stiff challenge for the Ute running game, which managed just 45 yards against TCU.

Kicker Louie Sakoda could be the X-factor. He's hit 21 of 23 field goals this season and averaged almost 42 yards a punt.

Game-comparison win %
Utah                   44% /40%
Alabama             56% /60% 

Alabama's game performances rate higher than Utah's, giving an estimate of a 56% likelihood of a Tide victory. If home field advantage is assigned, that estimate rises slightly to 60%.

Alabama's key games

Wins over bowl teams (5)

• = Clemson 34-10 (1st game of season)
• @ #17 Georgia 41-30 (5th)
  
• Kentucky 17-14 (6th)
• Mississippi 24-20 (7th)
• @ LSU 27-21 (ot) (10th)

Losses (1):

• = #5 Florida 31-20

Alabama kicked off the 2008 season in style, dominating highly-ranked Clemson on a neutral field. In retrospect it wasn't quite as impressive, and they followed it with a 20-6 dud against Tulane. But their win at Georgia, which they led 31-0 at the half, propelled them to #2 in the AP poll.

After that they again had some games that weren't so dominant: Kentucky 17-14, and Mississippi 24-20. Some questioned their commitment to non-marquee games, but the truth was their offense didn't always play as well as the defense, which saved them again against LSU. But few predicted that they'd be able to beat Florida in the SEC title game, and they couldn't, though they made a very decent showing.

Utah's key games

Wins over bowl teams (5):

• @ Air Force 30-23 (4th game of season)
• #24 Oregon State 31-28 (6th)
• Colorado State 49-16 (8th)
• #11 TCU 13-10 (10th)
  
• #16 BYU 48-24 (12th)
  

Losses (0):

• n/a

Utah is not this year's Hawaii. First, their schedule was far tougher than the Warriors' creampuff-fest a year ago. Second, Utah took care of business, beating teams convincingly.

The opener at Michigan, a 25-23 win, was celebrated as an upset, but it was really the Utes worst-played game of the season. They ended with five wins over bowl teams—same as Alabama—but with three wins over top 25 competition. In three of these wins, they needed late scores or comebacks to win, demonstrating both their vulnerability and their toughness.

Only one bowl-team win was a road game, and the struggles at Michigan and New Mexico (13-10) suggest that the Sugar Bowl trip, a near-road game, might be troublesome. But as for whether they're deserving, they arguably have the best résumé of anyone, and can legitimately argue (with about six other teams) that they should have been in the national title game.

Psychology

Alabama's situation is unfortunate. A game away from the national title, they lose a well-played contest and fall out of consideration. Now shooting for #2, they draw Utah, an opponent that doesn't get nearly the respect a strong BCS opponent would, and are put in a virtual no-win situation as far as the polls go. There is some danger they won't take the Utes seriously, especially if they view them as another Hawai'i to be slaughtered by a BCS team in the Sugar Bowl.

Utah has a lot to prove but the fans wanted to play Texas in the Fiesta Bowl, both for easier travel and because Texas is still a "live" opponent for the national title, having defeated Oklahoma this season. They don't just want to beat a team that Florida already beat. Fans still recall having to play 8-4 Pitt when they had Urban Meyer coaching and Alex Smith at quarterback, a win which proved nothing. Alabama is a huge step up from that, however, and the players—most of whom weren't around back then—only care about finishing a perfect season.

Final analysis

Alabama plays best in big games, against highly-rated teams, and this certainly counts. But it's not a BCS opponent, so there's a chance we won't see the Tide at its best. The ground game and controlling the clock will be Alabama's strength, but Utah's D is good and they're never out of the game with Brian Johnson and Louie Sakoda.

Utah's offense very well could stall for most of the game against the Tide defense. They're not at their best away from home, and the crowd will be pro-Tide. I see them falling behind like they did against TCU, another team with a great defense, and playing catch-up when Johnson starts to take more chances later in the game.

I think the final score will be a lot closer than the oddsmakers are suggesting. These teams are not Georgia and Hawaii from 2007, they are very similar to Oklahoma and Boise State from the prior year—both borderline top ten teams according to power ratings that consider score margin. There are a lot of key players to consider—Coffee, Julio Jones, Johnson, Sakoda—who could give their team the win. I'm sticking with the power rating's projection, but giving Alabama a consideration for home crowd—or rather, taking a bit away from Utah for that reason—and calling for an Alabama win in a low-scoring contest.

Prediction: Alabama 21  Utah 17

2009 Gator Bowl results - final score: Nebraska 26, Clemson 21

The Nebraska Cornhuskers came back from a 21-10 second-half deficit to win the Gator bowl 26-21, stopping a Clemson drive in the final minutes to seal the victory. Quenton Castille rushed for 124 yards for the Cornhuskers, while Joe Ganz threw two 2nd-half touchdown passes and Alex Henery hit four field goals.

Ganz was responsible for Clemson's first score as well when he was sacked and lost the ball late in the 2nd quarter. Clemson's DeAndre McDaniel returned the fumble 28 yards for a touchdown.

Nebraska responded by driving for a field goal with just over a minute left in the half, but the game, which had been uneventful so far, took and interesting turn. The Huskers intercepted Cullen Harper on Clemson's 27 yard line and looked like they had a chance to take the lead, but on the next play Ganz was intercepted by Crezdon Butler, who returned it almost 60 yards to the Nebraska 13 yard line. Two plays later, Harper hit Aaron Kelly for a touchdown to take a 14-3 lead into the locker room.

The quarterbacks traded touchdowns early in the 3rd quarter. Ganz's 17-yarder to Nate Swift made it 14-10; Harper's subsequent 41-yarder to Jacoby Ford put the Tigers back up by 14; then Ganz struck again, hitting Todd Peterson from 19 yards out to pull within four again, 21-17.

The string of touchdown passes was broken when the Cornhuskers intercepted Harper again and took over on Clemson's 10 yard line, but the Tiger defense pushed them back a yard and they had to settle for a field goal and a 1-point deficit.

The action didn't stop there: Nebraska blocked a punt on Clemson's next series, but they again had to kick a field goal. This one put them up 23-21, however, their first lead of the game with two minutes left in the third quarter.

The teams traded punts until the middle of the fourth quarter. A 40-yard dash by Castille set up another Henery field goal, as once again Nebraska couldn't get the touchdown in the red zone.

The Tigers almost had a defensive play to win the game. Ganz was temporarily out after a big hit, and backup Patrick Witt ran the ball and had an apparent fumble which Clemson ran back for a touchdown. But the play was reviewed and Witt was ruled down.

Clemson had one final chance. Harper drove them to the Nebraska 10 yard line, but a huge sack by Eric Hagg put them back to the 26, and Harper's final passes were broken up and fell incomplete. Harper had 204 passing yards and two TDs, getting no help from the running game which finished with five yards including losses from Nebraska's five sacks of Harper.

Nebraska finishes a comeback year at 9-4, while Clemson's disappointing season ends at 7-6. The final score—26-21—was exactly as I'd called it, the only bowl game I've gotten on the nose this year. The win was emotional for Bo Pelini and his brother, Carl, the defensive line coordinator, who lost their father just days ago.

2009 Rose Bowl results - final score: USC 38, Penn State 24

Mark Sanchez and the USC offense brought their "A" game on New Year's Day, racking up a 31-7 halftime lead and coasting to a 38-24 win over Penn State. Sanchez picked apart the Nittany Lion secondary in a 24 point second quarter and finished 28 of 35 with over 400 yards and four touchdowns, adding another on the ground.

USC struck first blood, Sanchez hitting Damian Williams for a 27-yard score in the first quarter. Williams led USC with 162 receiving yards.

Penn State tied it at 7 all when quarterback Daryll Clark rambled in from 9 yards out. But that was the Penn State offense's last gasp in the first half.

The Trojans switched almost exclusively to the pass and had immediate success, driving downfield to set up Sanchez's own touchdown run from the six. Their next drive was stopped for just a field goal, but on the next series Sanchez hit Ronald Johnson from the 19 to put USC up 24-7.

Penn State almost reversed the momentum before halftime. With starting back Evan Royster hurt early, Stephfon Green took over. Clark dumped a short pass to Green and he weaved for 38 yards but fumbled the ball. USC took advantage and five plays later the score was 31-7, another Sanchez pass, this time to C.J. Gable. The mood at the half was dire for the Lions, who with penalties and mistakes had blown their chance to keep it close.

The third quarter went scoreless as Penn State's defense hardened while USC's didn't let up. The Lions failed to convert on a fourth down in USC territory, but drove for a touchdown on the next series, making it 31-14 early in the fourth quarter.

USC responded with another touchdown drive: Sanchez completions of 16, 26, and finally 45 yards to a ridiculously wide open Ronald Johnson.

Despite the odds the Lions didn't give up. Stopped inside the 10, they settled for a field goal, then drove for another touchdown, a nine-yard strike from Clark to Jordan Norwood, to close the lead to 38-24 with 4 1/2 minutes left.

The last few minutes were eventful. With the game seemingly long over, the Lions forced a USC punt with three minutes to go, but Clark was intercepted on the 1st down play. Again, USC had to punt, and the snap went far over punter Greg Woidneck's head, all the way back to the USC 14 where Penn State took over with 45 seconds left.

But Clark was intercepted again and the threat of a bizarre comeback was over. Clark finished 21 of 35 for 269 yards, with 2 touchdowns through the air and one on the ground.

USC ends the season 12-1, which is actually their best record since the 2005 season. They could finish as high as 2nd in the AP poll, though various arguments will put them anywhere from #1 to #5 depending on what else happens in the later bowls. The Nittany Lions fall to 11-2, also their best year since 2005 but by a wider margin. They should stay in the top ten, remaining ahead of Ohio State, the other Big Ten team that was crushed by the Trojans.

2009 Capital One Bowl results - final score: Georgia 24, Michigan State 12

Georgia found their offense through the air in the second half and held on to beat Michigan State 24-12 in the Capital One Bowl on New Year's Day. Matt Stafford threw for three touchdown passes as both teams' star running backs were held to short yardage the entire game.

The first half was a defensive battle, with both Javon Ringer and Knowshon Moreno rushed for less than 50 yards. The teams traded short field goals in the first quarter, then Brett Swenson's 32-yarder put the Spartans up 6-3 at the break.

Matt Stafford struck in the third quarter, first on a 35 yard score to Michael Moore, then to Aron White for 21 yards, and Georgia was in control 17-6. Stafford finished 20 of 31 for just under 250 yards.

Ringer finally found the end zone in the 4th quarter on a 1-yard run. The two point conversion attempt failed, leaving Michigan State behind by 5, 17-12. Ringer managed just 47 yards for the day on 20 carries, similar to his performance against other tough rushing defenses the Spartans have faced.

Stafford responded with his third TD pass of the day, this time to Moreno, who had just 68 rushing yards himself but caught six passes.

Quarterback Brian Hoyer tried to rally the Spartans late. Starting at mid-field after the kickoff they drove into Georgia territory but came up just short yet again on a 4th and 22. The teams traded short drives again and the Bulldogs intercepted Hoyer's final pass of the day. He finished 18-of-34 for 169 yards and was sacked four times.

The win puts Georgia at 10-3, a good season but not quite the one they'd hoped for. They'll finish firmly in the top 25 after starting the year #1 in the AP poll. Michigan State had a good year, too, finishing 9-4 with losses only to Cal, Ohio State, Penn State, and now Georgia.

2009 Outback Bowl results - final score: Iowa crushes South Carolina, 31-10

The Iowa Hawkeyes capped a season of consistent improvement by dominating the South Carolina Gamecocks from the beginning, coasting to a 31-10 victory in the Outback Bowl in Tampa. Shonn Greene had 121 yards—his 13th game in a row over 100 yards—and three touchdowns for the Hawks.

Iowa took the opening drive for a score, with quarterback Rick Stanzi hitting Trey Stross in the end zone to go up 7-0. The next two scores were 1-yard runs by Greene as the Hawkeyes went up 21-0 at the half.

The Gamecocks struggled all game, with Stephen Garcia throwing three interceptions and fumbling once in the first half. Chris Smelley started the second half and completed his first pass, but his receiver fumbled the ball and Iowa recovered, leading to Daniel Murray field goal to give the Hawks 24 after a goal-line stand by South Carolina.

Other than the goal-line stop, nothing much went right for Steve Spurrier and the Gamecocks. They apparently got on the board with a 46 yard field goal but a penalty necessitated a re-kick, and Ryan Succop missed from 51 yards. Greene scored his third touchdown from 11 yards out on the subsequent drive, making it 31-0.

All of South Carolina's offensive highlights were in the fourth quarter. Smelley led the Gamecocks for a score on a 10-yard pass early in the quarter. A Succop field goal made it 31-10 with two minutes left. South Carolina recovered the ensuing onside kick but that was their last gasp.

The Hawkeyes finish the season a strong 9-4 after a 3-3 start, a great comeback for coach Kirk Ferentz. They lost four games by a combined 12 points, and were the only team to beat Penn State in 2008. South Carolina ends the year 7-6, another disappointing season for Spurrier.

2009 Cotton Bowl preview, odds, & prediction: Texas Tech vs. Mississippi

Friday January 2nd: Cotton Bowl in Dallas, TX 2:00 pm eastern

#3 Texas Tech Red Raiders (11-1) vs. #24 Mississippi Rebels (8-4)

The only team to beat Florida is playing a team whose only loss is to Oklahoma.

Vegas line: Texas Tech by 4.

The Red Raiders are a surprisingly narrow favorite. Hedging for possible Tech letdown?

Strength Power Rating:  Texas Tech 37    Mississippi 28

Mississippi has a good defense—they rank 19th in the nation in adjusted points yielded—but so does Texas Tech, who ranks #23. The Oklahoma game notwithstanding, they held a lot of good teams—Kansas and Oklahoma State, for example—well below their average this season.

While Mississippi's offense is good, too, ranking #18, Texas Tech has one of the most explosive offenses in the country, ranking #6. This is what gives them the edge according to the power rating. Note that while the game is being played in Texas, it's almost as far from Lubbock as it is from Oxford. At most maybe Tech gets a point, but the numbers I'm using are assuming a neutral field.

Yardage analysis:   Texas Tech 41    Mississippi 28

The Red Raider offense is 4th in adjusted average yards per game, their defense 26th. The Rebels rank 19th on offense, 18th on defense. These rankings are very similar to their scoring rankings, so with these teams, what you see is what you get on offense and defense. Thus the estimate comes out about the same.

When Mississippi has the ball
Mississippi rushing offense: #25           Texas Tech rushing defense: #49
Mississippi passing offense: #45           Texas Tech passing defense: #18

Ole Miss has a solid ground game and an okay passing game. They don't have superstar backs but they've faced a lot of stingy rushing defenses in the SEC, and they set up in some unusual formations that can confuse a defense not used to seeing them. Though inconsistent, Javon Snead has had some success throwing the ball this year with a nearly 2:1 TD:int ratio, but Texas Tech is pretty good on pass defense. If Ole Miss can establish the run, Snead should have more luck through the air; running the ball is also critical to moving the clock and keeping Harrell and company off the field as much as possible.

When Texas Tech has the ball
Texas Tech rushing offense: #93             Mississippi rushing defense: #3
Texas Tech passing offense: #2               Mississippi passing defense: #101

Texas Tech tried to create more balance between the rushing and passing game this year, and they certainly improved from last year when they were almost dead last in the nation in rushing. But they're still a pass-dominated offense of course. As of December 28 they were neck-and-neck with Houston for #1 in passing, and after the Houston's bowl Tech is almost certainly #1 again. Either way, they put up a lot of yards; Graham Harrell has 41 touchdown passes for the year and over 4,700 yards. Michael Crabtree is on his way to being one of the all-time great wide receivers in college football history. This presents a problem for Mississippi's porous pass defense.

While Ole Miss ranks 60th—about average—in raw yardage yielded against the pass, that's because their schedule features many teams that don't pass the ball much. When adjusted for this fact, they're 101st in the nation, suggesting that Harrell and crew could have a field day. But pass defense yardage is the least straightforward measure of the four listed above. Teams can give up a lot of yardage through the air in an open field but clamp down inside the 20 where the field is tighter. Many teams take chances to intercept the ball, meaning they give up yards but come up with big plays. And sometimes teams good at pressuring the quarterback can be a lot more effective than their yardage numbers would indicate. How is Mississippi by these other measures?

They rank an average 66th in red zone defense. No good news there. They're 43rd in interceptions...not bad, but Harrell doesn't throw many. They do rank 5th in total sacks, meaning they can probably get good pressure on Harrell. It's not guaranteed to slow him down; after all, Texas is #1 in sacks, and they gave up 39 points to the Red Raiders. But it's a start, and gives them hope. In Phil Steele's pass efficiency defense numbers, Ole Miss ranks 61st. Not great, but better than 101st. So every possibility is in play: Harrell could shred them, or they might cobble together a plan—starting with heavy pressure—to successfully slow him down.

Game-comparison win %
Texas Tech        66%
Mississippi         34%  

Texas Tech is about a 2-to-1 favorite by the game-comparison system.

Mississippi's key games

Wins over bowl teams (3)

• Memphis 41-24 (1st game of season)
• @ #5 Florida 31-30 (5th)
  
• @ LSU 31-13 (11th)

Losses (4):

• @ Wake Forest 30-28
• Vanderbilt 23-17
• South Carolina 31-24
• @ #6 Alabama 24-20

Mississippi had mixed results their first four games, and overall didn't look that impressive. So it was quite a shock when they beat Florida on the road. When they reversed course and lost two more games to sit at 3-4, it made Florida look bad. How could such a poor team have defeated the Gators?

A few wins later they at least had a winning record, but the Florida game stood out like a sore thumb among all their efforts. However, they managed to recaptur their best form, beating their last three opponents 135-13, including last year's champ LSU and arch-rival Mississippi State. In fact, according to the Strength power rating, over their last three games they played as well as Florida or Oklahoma.

Texas Tech's key games

Wins over bowl teams (5):

• @ Nevada 35-19 (2nd game of season)
• Nebraska 37-31 (ot) (6th)
• @ Kansas 63-21 (8th)
• #1 Texas 39-33 (9th)
• #12 Oklahoma State 56-20 (10th)
  

Losses (1):

• @ #2 Oklahoma 65=21

Texas Tech was expected to be good this season, but it was a long time before one could tell exactly how good they were.

The early schedule was littered with I-AA teams and questionable I-A squads. In retrospect, they did well against these teams, but really didn't raise eyebrows until they beat Kansas State 58-28 in Manhattan (game 5). Those eyebrows lowered back down when they needed overtime at home to beat Nebraska and played poorly against struggling Texas A&M.

But then the Kansas game established that they were for real. 8-0 at this point, they thrashed the Jayhawks by six touchdowns on the road. The followup was the kicker: they beat top-ranked Texas on the play of the year, a last-second Harrell to Crabtree touchdown. Not resting on their laurels, they smoked Oklahoma State the next weekend 56-20, setting up the huge showdown with Oklahoma.

In that game, all the credibility they had gained over the last month was gone in a flash to some people. Oklahoma dominated on offense and defense; most figured it would at least be a shootout with the Sooners' questionable defense. But Oklahoma beat Tech the way the Raiders had beaten Kansas and Oklahoma State. Their national title dream was gone.

Limping into the Baylor game, the letdown was noticeable. Needing to rally to win, they played nothing like the team that had previously dominated some of the better teams in the nation. With a month off, will this letdown pass? Or will being dropped from national title dreams to playing the 4th best SEC team keep them in a funk?

Psychology

Clearly these are two teams at different mental states right now. Whether or not Texas Tech has fully recovered from their disappointment, they will still have trouble convincing themselves that this game matters as much as some of their earlier games. And likely they'll feel some overconfidence at playing an 8-4 team when they beat Texas, and only lost to Oklahoma. How can they lose to Mississippi?

Ole Miss is on a roll, winning their last three games in powerhouse style. Under new coach Houston Nutt they're playing in a January bowl after missing a bowl altogether for the last four seasons. That means no one on the team has been to a bowl game, and excitement is high among the team and fans.

These factors—Mississippi's late surge vs. Texas Tech's collapse, and the emotional state of each team—seem to have been taken into account by the sports books in setting their odds. I had expected Tech to be a 10 to 12 point favorite, and was surprised to see it called so tight. I would guess that a lot of people are picking Mississippi to win this game based solely on psychological factors and momentum, and it's not a bad reason at all.

Final analysis

Before the line was announced, I had pegged this bowl as a "disappointment special" where a heavily-favored team that falls into a lesser bowl plays a disappointing game and loses by the spread. The same thing happened to Missouri, a 12 point favorite who needed overtime to beat Northwestern.

Texas Tech's last two games showed a marked dropoff from the level they had been playing. The last game, against Baylor, is the important one, showing how they coped with the loss. It wasn't good. Is there any reason for that to change? The loss to Oklahoma hasn't gone away.

But Texas Tech may get their motivation from an unusual source—the point spread itself. They probably think they deserve to be 10 point favorites. Missouri fit the pattern of the "letdown" game when they were heavy favorites, and there was clearly some overconfidence against Northwestern. Tech might actually have something to prove in this game, and as long as they have Michael Crabtree it's hard for me to bet against them.

With that, I'll stick to my plan: Tech wins, but doesn't cover.

Prediction: Texas Tech 31   Mississippi 30

Liberty Bowl preview, odds, & prediction: East Carolina vs. Kentucky

Friday January 2nd: Liberty Bowl in Memphis, TN 5:00 pm eastern

#25 East Carolina Pirates (9-4) vs. Kentucky Wildcats (6-6)

Another January bowl that probably shouldn't be in January.

Vegas line: East Carolina by 3.

The C-USA Pirates are a field goal favorite over the SEC's Wildcats.

Strength Power Rating:  East Carolina 20    Kentucky 19

East Carolina is a slimmer favorite according to the Strength ratings. Both teams have weak scoring offenses, ranking 85th and 77th. East Carolina's defense is a bit tougher, ranking 39th to Kentucky's 54th.

Yardage analysis:   East Carolina 17    Kentucky 14

Both offenses look even weaker by the yardage numbers: East Carolina is only 91st, Kentucky just 94th. The defenses rank 29th and 59th. Remember that the offensive scoring data includes scores by the defense, and turnovers caused by the defense can set up short fields that required fewer yards to get points. East Carolina has intercepted 21 passes this year, and Kentucky has forced 13 fumbles. Thus a team with a stronger defense will make offensive scoring data look better, while not contributing to offensive yardage data.

When Kentucky has the ball
Kentucky rushing offense: #74           East Carolina rushing defense: #44
Kentucky passing offense: #88           East Carolina passing defense: #26

Unlike last season under Andre Woodson, Kentucky's offense was not very productive in '08. East Carolina's defense has been pretty solid in both categories. This matchup presents a challenge for the Wildcats, who have struggled to find consistency at quarterback and running back. To add to the challenge, starter Randall Cobb is unlikely to play in the bowl game, though Mike Hartline started most of the season before Cobb took over.

When East Carolina has the ball
East Carolina rushing offense: #94             Kentucky rushing defense: #65
East Carolina passing offense: #68             Kentucky passing defense: #46

East Carolina hasn't had an explosive offense, either, but quarterback Patrick Pinkney can have a great game when he gets rolling. He's completed 63% of his attempts and while no Pat White, can be a threat to run as well. But the Pirates, too, will face a challenge against the Wildcat defense, which is why most of the projections for this game are for a low-scoring affair, with the over/under at 41 points.

Game-comparison win %
East Carolina         47%
Kentucky               53%  

Interestingly, the game-comparison system—culled from the same data as the Strenth power rating—says that Kentucky is more likely to win, just barely. The discrepancy can be seen as the difference between mean and mode. When all the game-comparisons are averaged, East Carolina wins the typical game by a point, but there are more Kentucky wins (by small margins) than East Carolina wins (by larger margins).

Kentucky's key games

Wins over bowl teams (0)

• N/A

Losses (6):

• @ #6 Alabama 17-14
• South Carolina 24-17
• @ #5 Florida 63-5
• #17 Georgia 42-38
• Vanderbilt 31-24
• @ Tennessee 28-10

Here's a telling stat: Kentucky did not beat a single team with a winning record this season. Not even I-AA Norfolk State managed to finish .500. And some of their wins were still close, beating Middle Tennessee State by 6, and Arkansas and Mississippi State by a point.

The did play very well in the opener at Louisville, pitching a shutout of the Cardinal offense. But their best performance might have been at Alabama, where they lost by 3 points. But looking at their season overall doesn't present a very good trend; their last seven games don't include a single really solid performance, and they dropped their last three games.

East Carolina's key games

Wins over bowl teams (4):

• Virginia Tech 27-22 (1st game of season)
• West Virginia 24-3 (2nd game)
• Memphis 30-10 (7th)
• @ Tulsa 27-24 (13th)

Losses (4):

• @ N.C. State 30-24 (ot)
• Houston 41-24
• @ Virginia 35-20
• @ Southern Miss 21-3
  

East Carolina opened the year with a great win over Virginia Tech and a huge upset of West Virginia, beating the Mountaineers throughly. After that expectations rose and the team couldn't quite handle it. They dodged a bullet against Tulane but dropped their next three.

To their credit, the Pirates came back, winning close games against UCF and Marshall. After losing to Southern Miss they finished strong, winning their last three, and in their final two games they looked as good as they had in the first two games, beating UTEP 53-21 and edging Tulsa in the C-USA championship game.

Psychology

Kentucky hasn't played well in the entire second half of the season, losing their last three. East Carolina has had an emotionally up and down year, but finished 9-4 for their best season in a decade. A tenth win would be their first since 1991. The Pirates should have a sizeable psychological advantage going into the game.

Final analysis

Both teams are likely to have trouble moving the ball consistently against tough defenses. But Kentucky has quarterback issues in addition to their other problems, while Pinkney is capable of having great performances leading his team. And East Carolina's defense is even more predatory than Kentucky's, with 32 forced turnovers to 25.

Add in a more fired-up Pirate team and this looks like an East Carolina win.

Prediction: East Carolina 23   Kentucky 14

2008 Chik-Fil-A Bowl results - final score: LSU 38, Georgia Tech 3

Charles Scott rushed for three touchdowns, two in a huge second quarter as the Tigers crushed Georgia Tech 38-3 in the Chik-Fil-A Bowl.

Scott's first TD came on LSU's first drive from 2 yards out. Georgia Tech countered with their only successful drive, resulting in Scott Blair's 24-yard field goal that made it 7-3 LSU at the end of the first quarter.

After that, it was all Tigers.

Scott scored again from close in, putting LSU up 14-3. On the ensuing kickoff the Tigers recovered an onside, leading to yet another Scott touchdown.

While LSU's trick plays worked, Georgia Tech's did not. On 4th and 8 from their own 22 the Yellow Jackets attempted a fake punt but were bottled up, giving LSU the ball on the 24 yard line. The short allowed LSU's quarterback—freshman Jordan Jefferson in his first ever start—to complete two pass plays, the latter a 25 yard touchdown. Jefferson completed 16 of 25 passes for 142 yards on the day.

Keiland Williams capped the first half scoring with a 17-yard run and the rout was on, LSU going into the locker room with a 35-3 lead.

The second half featured little scoring. On one drive LSU was stopped on a 4th-and-goal from the one yard line, but later in the 3rd quarter Colt David hit a 53-yard field goal.

In the futile fourth quarter, the Yellow Jackets reached the LSU 13 but failed on fourth down; drove to the LSU 10 but quarterback Josh Nesbitt fumbled; and poked into Tiger territory in the final minute before time ran out.

LSU finished on a high note after a disappointing season, going 8-5 a year after winning the national championship. They also discovered a new talent at quarterback, a position that has given them trouble this year. Georgia Tech had a very successful 9-4 year, especially considering it was their first season under new coach Paul Johnson running the triple option.

2008 Insight Bowl results - final score: Kansas 42, Minnesota 21

Todd Reesing passed for four touchdowns as the Kansas pulled away from Minnesota and won the Insight Bowl 42-21. Reesing finished 27 of 35 for 313 yards, and Dezmon Briscoe had 201 receiving yards and three touchdown catches.

The first quarter was full of action and changing leads. Reesing's first connection with Briscoe came on the initial play from scrimmage, a 60 yard touchdown to give the Jayhawks a 7-0 lead.

The Gophers struck back right away: receiver/quarterback David Pittman completed his first pass of the year for a 75 yard gain; three plays later Jon Hoese scored from the one yard line to tie the game. Minnesota's next drive, with Adam Weber at the helm, was successful as well. Hoese got his second short TD run and Minnesota had a 14-7 lead.

But Reesing marched his team downfield, hitting Kerry Meier on a 4-yard pass to tie the game 14-14 at the end of the first quarter. Meier finished with 113 receving yards.

Kansas' next two drives were much the same, with similar results: Reesing hit Briscoe and Jonathan Wilson for short touchdown passes and Kansas was up 28-14 at the half.

The third quarter featured little scoring. The Jayhawks forced a Gopher fumble on their own 32 yard line, and one play later Meier, Kansas' own quarterback turned wide receiver, tossed a touchdown pass to Briscoe on the next play.

Attempting to come back from a 35-14 deficit in the final quarter, Weber started the Gophers off right, cutting the lead to two touchdowns within a couple of minutes with a touchdown throw to Eric Decker. The defense responded by holding Kansas to a rare three-and-out.

But the Jayhawk defense stopped the Gophers' next drive, and put the game away with a time-killer drive that ended with Jake Sharp's 2-yard TD run.

Kansas finishes the season 8-5 compared to 12-1 last season. They lost to most of the Big 12's best teams (Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech) but finished strong by beating Missouri and Minnesota. The Gophers end on a down note, losing their last five games after starting 7-1, but that's quite a turnaround from their 1-11 mark last season.

2008 Music City Bowl results - final score: Vanderbilt 16, Boston College 14

Vanderbilt won their first bowl game in over 50 years, upsetting Boston College 16-14 in the Music City Bowl by using three different quarterbacks, kicking three field goals, and scoring their only touchdown on a fluke punt play.

The first quarter scoring consisted of two field goals by Bryant Hahnfeldt, the latter set up by a 51 yard completion from Larry Smith to Sean Walker, putting the Commodores up 6-0. Normally third string, Smith alternated quarterback play with Chris Nickson to fill in for the injured Mackenzi Adams. Jamie Graham took some snaps for the Commodores as well.

Boston College's defense stifled the Commodores for the rest of the half, and quarterback Dominique Davis put the Eagles ahead with a four-yard pass to Montel Harris.

The pivotal play of the game came early in the third quarter. Vanderbilt punted the ball which skimmed off Paul Anderson's leg; Vanderbilt scrambled for the recovery and pushed the ball into the end zone before recovering it. The officials conferred and ruled it a Vanderbilt touchdown. Just like that, the Commodores were up 13-7.

Davis responded again in the fourth quarter with a 55-yard strike to Colin Larmond to regain the lead, 14-13.

But Vanderbilt and Hahnfeldt weren't quite finished.

Hahnfeldt kicked his third field goal of the day, giving Vanderbilt the lead again, 16-14, with just 3 1/2 minutes left.

The Commodore defense forced B.C. to punt with 2:30 to go, but Boston College returned the favor and had one chance left with 2 minutes to go, but Davis was intercepted a few plays later.

Vanderbilt finished 7-6, their first winning season since going 8-4 in 1982. Boston College fell to 9-5 and saw their 8-game bowl game winning streak snapped.

2008 Sun Bowl results - final score: Oregon State 3, Pitt 0

One kick. That's all it took for Oregon State to beat Pittsburgh Wednesday afternoon in the Sun Bowl.

The Beavers' Justin Kahut kicked a 2nd quarter field goal to put Oregon State ahead 3-0, and that was all the scoring for the rest of the game. It was expected to be a low to moderate scoring affair, with both teams having tough defenses and problems on offenses that might suggest a low scoring game. But few predicted anything like this.

The first offensive series for each team set the tone. Oregon State fumbled on their third play from scrimmage. Two plays later, Pitt quarterback Bill Stull was intercepted.

Seven consecutive punts followed, putting the teams scoreless into the 2nd quarter. Pittsburgh, trying to get something going, gambled from the Oregon State 37 on fourth-and-three, but Stull's pass fell incomplete.

On the next series, Kahut made the winning field goal with 2:24 left in the first half. The Beavers had another drive going before halftime, making it all the way to Pitt's 9 yard line before Lyle Moevau was intercepted.

The second half was more of the same. The third quarter consisted of seven punts and a miss by Kahut. Without the Rodgers brothers—running back Jacquiz and receiver James—the Beaver offense had just 77 rushing yards and 194 passing. Pitt was even worse, with 178 total yards.

The fourth quarter saw more punts and Stull and Moevau were both intercepted again. Pitt had two opportunities. Ace kicker Conor Lee attempted a 57-yard field goal but missed. In retrospect, should they have kicked from the 37 (a 54 yard attempt) in the first half?

The Panthers' last-ditch chance was at the end of the game. With Pat Bostick in at quarterback the team drove from their own 11 to midfield before Bostick was sacked to end the game.

Playing without the Rodgers brothers, Oregon State has some excuse for their lame offensive performance, and they got the win. And while both teams played great defense at times, Pittsburgh is once again left to answer questions about their team and coach. Every time the program tries to turn the corner they suffer an embarrassing loss. Needing only a field goal to tie or a touchdown to beat a crippled opponent, the Panthers couldn't muster the necessary offense.

Pittsburgh falls to 9-4 while Oregon State rises to that mark. While the Beavers will be in the final top 25, voters probably won't be as kind to Pitt for being shut out. They do hold a victory over Iowa, though it was a 1-point win at home and doesn't necessarily guarantee I'd rank them ahead of the Hawkeyes.

2008 Armed Forces Bowl results - final score: Houston 34, Air Force 28

Houston won the rematch with Air Force, downing the Falcons 34-28 behind Case Keenum's three touchdowns, two of which were on the ground.

Unlike the previous game, there were no rainstorms and strong winds, just a breeze that didn't hamper the passing game. But Keenum had just 250 passing yards, 100 fewer than last time, and three fewer passing TDs than he did in the earlier contest which Air Force won 31-28.

But this time the Cougars didn't get into a 31-7 hole, nor did they allow the Falcons 380 rushing yards. Air Force finished with 242 yards on the ground and controlled time of possession but never led, and couldn't stop the Cougars from getting their first bowl win since 1980.

Houston jumped to a 17-7 first quarter lead but the Falcons had it tied by halftime. The third quarter featured Keenum's second short TD run and Air Force kicker Ryan Harrison's second field goal of the day, making it 24-20, Houston, with one quarter remaining.

Keenum hit his only touchdown pass of the day to Andre Kohn to put the Cougars up 31-20, but he was intercepted on the next series, leaving Air Force on Houston's 30 yard line. Jared Tew took it in from the two yard line for his second touchdown run of the game as Air Force cut the lead to 31-28 after the two-point conversion, six minutes to go.

Keenum drove the Cougars to the Air Force twenty to set up Jordan Mannisto's second field goal of the day from 37 yards out, making it 34-28 with three minutes left. The Houston defense held Air Force on a 4-and-out to ice the game.

Overall the game went roughly as expected, with the final score not radically different than the first game these teams played other than the fact that Houston won. Both teams finished the year 8-5.

2009 Orange Bowl preview, odds, and prediction: Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech

Thursday January 1st: Orange Bowl in Miami, FL 8:30 pm eastern

#13 Cincinnati Bearcats (11-2) vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (9-4)

The least compelling BCS bowl still matches the Big East winner vs. the ACC winner.

Vegas line: Cincinnati by 2 1/2.

The Bearcats are finally the favorite in a big game after finding little respect throughout the season for an 11-2 team.

Strength Power Rating:  Virginia Tech 19    Cincinnati 18

But the computer disagrees, calling a close game for the Hokies. The low score comes from the fact that neither of these teams has a great offense, ranking 58th and 59th in adjusted scoring. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, has the better defense, ranked #12 to Cincinnati's #27.

Yardage analysis:   Cincinnati 23   Virginia Tech 21   

The yardage analysis compares offenses to defenses, which effectively takes special teams out of the equation. Not surprisingly, Virginia Tech loses a bit and becomes a 2 point underdog. Virginia Tech's offense is a dismal 105th by adjusted yardage, while the defense is 11th. Cincinnati's offense ranks 30th while their defense is 16th. So from these numbers you'd have to guess that a lot of Virginia Tech's scoring must be set up by the defense and special teams, and you'd be right: the Hokies are in the top ten in turnovers gained, and tied for fifth in blocked kicks.

When Cincinnati has the ball
Cincinnati rushing offense: #84           Virginia Tech rushing defense: #16
Cincinnati passing offense: #32           Virginia Tech passing defense: #31

Despite their constant quarterback woes (short version: Ben Mauk denied 1,000 appeals for a sixth year; Dustin Grutza breaks his leg; Tony Pike breaks his arm; reshirt freshman Chazz Anderson starting by mid-season before Pike and Grutza return), Cincinnati has had a pretty good passing game. When healthy, their many quarterbacks can throw the ball. The Hokie pass defense is good, too, and should be able to concentrate on pressuring the quarterback.

When Virginia Tech has the ball
Virginia Tech rushing offense: #30             Cincinnati rushing defense: #11
Virginia Tech passing offense: #115           Cincinnati passing defense: #56

Virginia Tech had its own quarterback issues, with Tyrod Taylor and Sean Glennon combining for just five touchdown throws vs. 11 interceptions. It would have been worse had Frank Beamer stuck with his original plan to redshirt Taylor, who has nearly 700 yards on the ground this season. Their other ground weapon is Darren Evans with 1,112 yards so far. Cincinnati's defensive forte is stopping the run, however, so Virginia Tech may have to depend, as usual, on special teams to boost their offense.

Game-comparison win %
Virginia Tech             53%
Cincinnati                 47%  

Even counting their dismal first outing without Taylor the Hokies have had slightly better performance and a 53% chance of winning according to the game-comparison method.

Cincinnati's key games

Wins over bowl teams (5)

• Rutgers 13-10 (6th game of season)
• South Florida 24-10 (8th)
• @ West Virginia 26-23(ot) (9th)
• @ #20 Pittsburgh 28-21 (11th)
  
• @ Hawaii 29-24 (13th)

Losses (2):

• @ #2 Oklahoma 52-26
• @ Connecticut 40-16

Other than the loss to Connecticut, the Bearcats hit neither highs nor lows this season. They were pretty consistently...above average, playing up to or down to their competition. Which makes their 11 wins all the more remarkable.

Part of this is probably due to constantly changing quarterbacks, which has worked out surprisingly well but hasn't given them the chance to grow as a team. The defense has been pretty solid, allowing the offense to just get by with enough to win. Another consideration is that their success this season could be attributed to good coaching, as it seems Cincinnati has constantly overachieved this year. Eleven wins from this team, with all of its problems? That's a great job by Brian Kelly.

Virginia Tech's key games

Wins over bowl teams (5):

• #15 Georgia Tech 20-17 (3rd game of season)
• @ North Carolina 20-17 (4th)
• @ Nebraska 35-30 (5th)
• Maryland 23-13 (9th)
• = Boston College 30-12 (13th)

Losses (4):

• @ East Carolina 27-22
• @ Boston College 28-23
• @ Florida State 30-20
• @ Miami 16-14

Virginia Tech's biggest mistake was trying to redshirt Tyrod Taylor; it likely cost them a game, though ultimately losing to East Carolina had no effect on where they ended up in bowl season. With Taylor back for game two the Hokies got up to speed quickly. The rough patch where they lost three of four consisted of a trio of narrow losses, all on the road to bowl teams, so it was much more of a fluke than a team crisis. They recovered to win their final three games, including getting revenge on Boston College on a neutral field to win the ACC. Like Cincinnati, the Hokies have played remarkably consistent football considering their offensive issues, but then a good defense does form a solid base for a team.

Psychology

I don't think either team has much of a mental edge in this game. Both teams have been through a lot this season and come out in a BCS bowl, which is great for both programs. But Virginia Tech's been to big bowl games as a matter of course over the last decade. For Cincinnati, this is new territory. The Bearcats have been to minor bowl games here and there, most recently the Papajohns.com bowl which they won last year. But this is a big one.

I'm not sure how they'll react but Brian Kelly has done such a good job with this team I think he'll have them fired up. That doesn't mean they have a coaching edge over Beamer, but it's hard to imagine Tech being quite as excited. Of course excitement can be a good or bad thing in a big game. Both teams should be up for the game and have reasonable expectations of winning it.

Final analysis

Neither of these teams has a great offense, and both have strong defenses and special teams. So I'd expect a low-scoring game with a few big plays making the difference. In such games picking a winner is difficult, since any score can change the game completely.

Since Tony Pike and the rest of Cincinnati's quarterbacks have had some time to get healthy, I think their passing will be the only reliable offense in this game. The unpredictable big plays may fall Virginia Tech's way, any one of which might give them the game, but those can't be counted on.

Prediction:    Cincinnati 13  West Virginia 10

2009 Gator Bowl preview, odds, & prediction: Nebraska vs. Clemson

Thursday January 1st: Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, FL 1:00 pm eastern

Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-4) vs. Clemson Tigers (7-5)

Back in 1981 #1 Clemson played #4 Nebraska in a January 1 bowl game in Florida to win the national championship. This game isn't quite as important.

Vegas line: Clemson by 2 1/2.

The Tigers have had their ups and downs this season but are still a slight favorite.

Strength Power Rating:  Nebraska 28.2    Clemson 27.9

I've displayed the projection to tenths of a point to show how close the computer calls it. The teams' offense and defenses cancel each other's advantages: by adjusted scoring averages, it will be Nebraska's #13 offense taking on Clemson's #11 defense, while the Tigers' #50 offense clashes with Nebraska's #67 defense.

Yardage analysis:   Nebraska 31   Clemson 17

The yardage projection is all Nebraska, mostly because Clemson's offense ranks only 80th in adjusted yardage. So where to they get the points to rank even 50th in scoring? The most I can tell is it's a statistcal fluke that the numbers are so far apart; none of the usual suspects, such as limiting turnovers, great red zone defense, return yardage, etc, show the Tigers as a top team in those stats. Nebraska's yardage numbers align pretty well with their scoring, ranking them 13th on offense and 42nd on D.

When Nebraska has the ball
Nebraska rushing offense: #42           Clemson rushing defense: #36
Nebraska passing offense: #13           Clemson passing defense: #24

This will be an interesting matchup: Nebraska's balanced offense against Clemson's well-rounded defense. Joe Ganz has been lost among the myraid of Big Twelve quarterbacks this year, but he's quietly racked up 3,332 yards and 23 TDs against 10 interceptions and ranks 14th in passing efficiency. He even runs the ball, going for over 400 yards before subtracting out sacks. Meanwhile the running game found another star in Roy Helu, who came on strong late in the year to surpass Marlon Lucky as the top back.

Clemson's defense will be a test for Nebraska's ground game, which for decades was their bread and butter (and silverware and table). The Tigers don't pressure the quarterback particularly well, but they do intercept the ball a lot, so their secondary can be even more dangerous than the top 25 ranking would imply. Big plays—on offense or defense—will be the difference in which side gets the advantage here.

When Clemson has the ball
Clemson rushing offense: #79             Nebraska rushing defense: #66
Clemson passing offense: #70             Nebraska passing defense: #25

On paper Clemson should have a much more productive offense, and that is one reason Tommy Bowden isn't coach any more. With both C.J. Spiller and James Davis and a vaunted offensive line, the running game should have ranked in the top 25, but Bowden didn't use them well as a tandem; instead of complementing each other, neither could get going at times. For example, Spiller had just two carries in the opening loss to Alabama. Nebraska's defense isn't great against the run and offers an opportunity for the Tigers, who have the talent to put up major yards.

Cullen Harper had a great, efficient 2007 and came into this year with high expectations, none of which were realized early on. He ended with just eight touchdowns and nine interceptions, though he has a 4:1 ratio the last four games. Nebraska's pass defense ranks just 90th in raw passing yardage yielded, but half the teams they played are in the top ten in raw passing yards: #1 Texas Tech, #3 Oklahoma, #4 Missouri, #8 Kansas, #9 New Mexico State, and #10 Western Michigan. So the Cornhuskers have a lot of experience with good passing offenses, and rank a solid 25th adjusted for their opponents' passing game. Still, Harper is talented and should be fully recovered from injuries that nagged him this season.

Game-comparison win %
Clemson          46%
Nebraska         54%  

Though the Strength power rating couldn't really pick a winner, the same data used in a game-by-game basis shows Nebraska slightly more likely to win. What this says is that the games Clemson wins it wins by a bit more, while Nebraska takes the majority by a lesser spread.

Nebraska's key games

Wins over bowl teams (2)

• Western Michigan 47-24 (1st game of season)
• Kansas 45-35 (10th)

Losses (4):

• Virginia Tech 35-30
• Missouri 52-17
• @ #3 Texas Tech 37-31ot
• @ #2 Oklahoma 62-28

Nebraska opened with three wins that gave fans cautious optimism, but after three straight losses put them 3-3, the season looked bleak and the rest of the nation stopped paying attention. The Missouri game was an especially embarrassing loss; when Texas Tech needed overtime to beat the Huskers in the next game, the Raiders were criticized for the narrow win. In reality, it was the start of Nebraska's resurgence this year. They won five out of their next six games to finish 8-4. Their final three games were solid, with an upset of Kansas, a pounding of Kansas State, and a win in another shootout with Colorado.

The Cornhuskers didn't beat a lot of good teams, but didn't lose to bad ones either. What's interesting is how they played on the road. Nebraska had just four road games, going 2-2. But two of their best games (Iowa State 35-7, Kansas State 56-28) and the Texas Tech overtime game were among them. In short, they played better on the road. Is it possible for a team to actually play better on the road? Given fans expectations, is played on the road liberating for the team? It's an interesting idea, but with just four road games to sample from not defensible. It's safe to say, though, that they aren't a bad road team, so playing a neutral location shouldn't harm them.

Clemson's key games

Wins over bowl teams (3):

• N.C. State 27-9 (3rd game of season)
• @ Boston College 27-21 (8th)
• South Carolina 31-14 (12th)

Losses (5):

• =#6 Alabama 34-10
• Maryland 20-17
• @ Wake Forest 12-7
• #15 Georgia Tech 21-17
• @ Florida State 41-27

Clemson started the year with top ten expectations. On the first weekend of college football those hopes were dashed by a thumping at the hands of Alabama. The Citadel game didn't look much better, though by the 54-0 win over a second I-AA team, South Carolina State, the offense seemed to be coming along.

But that was a mirage. The next two games doomed Tommy Bowden as the team scored a combined 24 points and put their record at 3-3. Given the circumstances the Georgia Tech loss was understandable, but after that new coach Dabo Sweeney led a revival of sorts, upsetting Boston College on the road and winning the final three games, including a defeat of South Carolina.

Psychology

A lot of a team's bowl psychology rests on expectations and whether they were met. In the 70s, 80s, or 90s, an 8-4 record would be a major disappointment for the Cornhuskers; now, it's a tentative sign of progress under new coach Bo Pelini.

Clemson was supposed to have a breakthrough season; when it was clear that they were having the opposite, Tommy Bowden was fired. By bringing in a new coach mid-season, Clemson has pretty much erased the expectation factor, and by finishing 4-1 it's probably a non-issue at this point. The team just wants to win a bowl game.

The X factor in terms of this game's psychology is Pelini's loss of his dad a few days ago. Something like this can really affect a team when they have respect for the coach. Pelini's brother Carl is the offensive line coach, so two Nebraska coaches lost their father. In the past I've seen this kind of thing really motivate a team; it gives players a reason, outside of themselves, to win a game.

Final analysis

Both teams enter the game on three-game winning streaks. The matchups look pretty even, with the better quality on the field when Nebraska has the ball and Clemson is defending. But the Tigers have offensive weapons galore if they can use them appropriately.

Both teams also had a point in the season where they hit rock-bottom: the 2nd game of their three-game losing streaks. After that they started to extract themselves from the losing mentality.

Overall I think Nebraska has bounced back stronger, making them a slight favorite in my mind. The motivation of winning one for the Pelini brothers is an additional factor which I think seals the win for Nebraska.

Prediction: Nebraska 26   Clemson 21

2009 Capital One Bowl preview, odds, and prediction: Georgia vs. Michigan State

Thursday January 1st: Capital One Bowl in Orlando, FL 1:00 pm eastern

#19 Michigan State Spartans (9-3) vs. #17 Georgia Bulldogs (9-3)

A much better game than the day's first, and the preferred 1pm bowl game, featuring two of the premier running backs in the nation.

Vegas line: Georgia by 7 1/2.

The Bulldogs are more than a touchdown favorite; in terms of perceived talent, they're still one of the best teams in the nation.

Strength Power Rating:  Georgia 31   Michigan State 28

The Strength power rating sees a closer contest, with the Bulldogs winning by a field goal. While the Bulldogs rank 12th in the nation in adjusted scoring average, on defense they're a pedestrian 58th. Meanwhile the Spartans are 45th on offense but a respectable 28th on D.

Yardage analysis:   Georgia 41   Michigan State 17

By yardage comparisons, though, the Bulldogs are a huge favorite. Ninth on offense and 38th on defense by measure of yardage adjusted for their competition, they're far ahead of the Spartans, who rank a measley 71st on offense and 70th on defense. Both numbers are so much lower than MSU's scoring rankings that we need to look for an explanation. On offense, kicker Brett Swenson has hit 20 field goals this year, tied for fifth in the nation; this adds scoring on shorter drives. On defense, it's hard to tell what's stopping teams from capitalizing on the yardage they rack up. It's not turnovers, red zone defense, or stopping teams on 3rd down, all of which they're average at.

When Georgia has the ball
Georgia rushing offense: #32           Michigan State rushing defense: #53
Georgia passing offense: #14           Michigan State passing defense: #100

Georgia's offense is pretty balanced behind running back Knowshon Moreno and quarterback Matt Stafford. The Spartan rushing defense isn't terrible, but has been burned by good rushing teams this year; a good game by Moreno would make Stafford's job even easier against Michigan State's secondary. This matchup doesn't look all that good for the Spartans, and they'll need an extraordinary performance to keep Georgia's offense in check.

When Michigan State has the ball
Michigan State rushing offense: #63             Georgia rushing defense: #26
Michigan State passing offense: #73             Georgia passing defense: #58

It's kind of surprising that the Spartan rushing game ranks so low, even with Ringer who gained 1,590 yards this season. But he was pretty much their entire ground game, with no one else having even 100 yards total for the season. Also, his average was just 4.3 yards a carry, and in several big games he was shut down. In fact, all of the top 25 rushing defenses he faced (Iowa, Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State) held him below 100 yards; Georgia ranks 26th in that measure.

While Georgia's passing defense is less tough, the Spartans have struggled to get consistency from QB Brian Hoyer, who completed 51% of his passes for 9 TDs and 8 interceptions. Unless Ringer has a big day, it doesn't look good for the offense if the Spartans have to rely on the passing game.

Game-comparison win %
Michigan State          53%
Georgia                    47%  

The comparison of game performances—which is a score-based stat, not yardage based—again calls for a game that could go either way, based on how the teams have performed this season.

Georgia's key games

Wins over bowl teams (5)

• Central Michigan 56-17 (2nd game of season)
• @ South Carolina 14-7 (3rd)
• Vanderbilt 24-14 (7th)
• @ LSU 52-38 (8th)
• @ Kentucky 42-38

Losses (3):

• #6 Alabama 41-30
• #5 Florida 49-10
• #15 Georgia Tech 45-42

It takes a very good team to beat Georgia as they have only lost to top 25 squads. But conversely, the Bulldogs haven't proven they can beat a true top 25 team yet. Something will have to give when they face the Spartans.

Georgia played better in the early part of the season, when they were ranked #1 (or 2, or 3). After the Alabama loss, they had trouble recapturing their drive, and after the Florida game—their second drubbing at home—they limped down the home stretch, barely edging Kentucky and Auburn before losing their third home game of the year to Georgia Tech.

Michigan State's key games

Wins over bowl teams (5):

• Florida Atlantic 17-0 (3rd game of season)
• Notre Dame 23-7 (4th)
• #25 Iowa 16-13 (6th)
• @ #21 Northwestern 37-20 (7th)
  
• Wisconsin 25-24 (10th)

Losses (3):

• @ California 38-31
• #10 Ohio State 45-7
• @ #8 Penn State 49-18

Michigan State played pretty consistent football througout the year, with one aberrent terrible game against Ohio State. The rest of their games—even the losses—were not embarrassing.

The road loss to Cal was hard-fought; after that they allowed only 17 points in their next three games. When they needed offense, they scored 42 on Indiana, 37 on Northwestern, and just enough against Iowa to get the win. They bounced back from the Buckeye loss with a solid game against Michigan, stole a win from Wisconsin, and handled Purdue. Against Penn State, the other truly top-notch team they played in 2008, they wilted, but not as badly as they had against Ohio State.

Psychology

These teams nearly met in the middle from different levels of expectations. Georgia started the year ranked #1 in many polls, while Michigan State was firmly in the "others receiving votes" category. By the middle of the season, however, things had evened out a bit: Georgia had fallen hard to Alabama and the Spartans were 7-1. From there, both teams had some disappointment: the Bulldogs were crushed by Florida, the Spartans by Ohio State. Both lost their final game as well.

Georgia's performance does seem to have declined throughout the season. After each loss they played down a notch. It's as if their expectations were too high, got crushed, and affected their outlook. Their last four games were particularly suspect. The Spartans played at least as well as the Bulldogs in their final four games. I don't know that Michigan State will be particularly stoked for this game, but they may have a big advantage in that Georgia has been flatlining for the last few months.

Final analysis

Close game, or blowout? If a blowout, then it's Georgia that takes home the win. I can't see the Spartans routing the Bulldogs unless the Dawgs have hit rock-bottom emotionally, which is possible, but not probable. Mark Richt is a good motivater and should be able to prevent a meltdown.

Michigan State plays better football than they have the right to on paper. With a questionable defense, an ineffective quarterback and a rushing threat defenses know they can key on, it's amazing that they won nine games. But when you look at how they've actually played, the Spartans aren't that different than the Bulldogs. In general, both lose to good teams and beat mediocre and poor teams. If they'd traded schedules, they'd probably both have finished 9-3 anyway.

Putting the emotional angle aside, I just see Georgia matching up too well against the Spartans. It could be a close game, or a runaway, but the Bulldogs ought to win. Ringer may or may not get his 200 yards—probably not—but the Spartan defense has to stop both Moreno and Stafford. Georgia hasn't had a game in a while where they've put it all together, and if they come close, they'll win the Capital One bowl.

But since Michigan State's play defies the logical analysis, I'm going with what these teams have done rather than what they should do, and taking the Bulldogs in a close game.

Prediction: Georgia  31  Michigan State 28

2009 Outback Bowl preview, odds, & prediction: Iowa vs. South Carolina

Thursday January 1st: Outback Bowl in Tampa, FL 11:00 am eastern

#25 Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (7-5)

The early game on New Year's Day, before the more important games begin. Iowa features Shonn Greene while South Carolina...is 7-5.

Vegas line: Iowa by 4.

The Hawks are favored by a bit more than a field goal, a 3 1/2 to 4 point range.

Strength Power Rating:  Iowa 23    South Carolina 11

Iowa has only the 38th best scoring offense adjusted for opposition, but their defense ranks #7. South Carolina is similarly defense-minded, ranking 15th while their offense is just 69th. The Gamecock offense-Hawkeye defense matchup is a big reason the Strength Power Rating has Iowa winning by a dozen.

Yardage analysis:   Iowa 14    South Carolina 13

By yardage the Gamecocks still don't look to score much, but neither does Iowa. The Hawkeye defense is #10, the Gamecock offense just 78th. But Iowa's offense only ranks 58th by yardage while South Carolina's defense is even better than Iowa's in preventing yardage, ranking #6.

When South Carolina has the ball
South Carolina rushing offense: #98           Iowa rushing defense: #7
South Carolina passing offense: #51           Iowa passing defense: #40

Iowa shuts down the run, and South Carolina doesn't have a great running game in any case. Consistency at quarterback has been a problem for South Carolina, with Chris Smelley never solidifying his starting spot against redshirt freshman Stephen Garcia, who may be great some day but isn't quite there yet. Garcia is pegged to start. Both quarterbacks have had trouble with interceptions, and Iowa has 20 interceptions this year. The low-scoring projections for South Carolina make sense.

When Iowa has the ball
Iowa rushing offense: #24             South Carolina rushing defense: #20
Iowa passing offense: #100           South Carolina passing defense: #12

Iowa isn't much of a passing threat; quarterback Rick Stanzi took over the starting job but hasn't been the team's playmaker—that would be running back Shonn Greene, the Doak Walker award winner. So the fact that South Carolina is great against the pass means a lot less. They're good against the run, too, ranking #20. But Iowa has faced good rushing defenses before, and here's what happened: Against Wisconsin's 17th ranked rushing defense, Greene had 217 yards and 4 touchdowns. Pitt, #17 against the run? 147 yards for Greene. #10 Penn State? 117 yards, 2 TDs. No one's been able to stop Greene so far, and it's unlikely that any team other than TCU could hold him under 100 yards.

Game-comparison win %
Iowa                      75%
South Carolina       25%  

Iowa's game performances rate higher than South Carolina's, making the Hawks a 3-to-1 favorite by this method.

South Carolina's key games

Wins over bowl teams (3)

• North Carolina State 34-0 (1st game of season)
• @ #24 Mississippi 31-24 (6th)
  
• @ Kentucky 24-17 (7th)

Losses (5):

• @ Vanderbilt 24-17
• @ #17 Georgia 14-7
• LSU 24-17
• #5 Florida 56-6
• @ Clemson 31-14

South Carolina opened with their best game of the year, dominating North Carolina State 34-0. They followed that with 7-point losses against Vanderbilt and Georgia, and played just as poorly in the next two wins, 23-13 over Wofford and 26-13 over UAB. In fact, the Gamecocks really played well in only four of their last eleven games, beating Mississippi, Kentucky, Tennessee and Arkansas handily between dismal losses to LSU, Florida, and Clemson.

On the bright side, South Carolina didn't lose to any bad teams; all the teams that beat them went to bowl games. Their lack of offense cost them dearly this season; in three of their losses they limited their opponent to 24 or fewer points, but were held to 17 or fewer themselves. Their season high was 34 points, which they attained twice.

Iowa's key games

Wins over bowl teams (3):

• Wisconsin 38-31 (8th game of season)
• #8 Penn State 24-23 (10th)
• Minnesota 55-0 (12th)

Losses (4):

• @ #20 Pittsburgh 21-20
• #21 Northwestern 22-17
• @ #19 Michigan State 16-13
• @ Illinois 27-24

Iowa played six good games and six bad games in 2008. Most of the bad ones came early in narrow losses to three top 25 teams. The Hawkeyes were a few points away from greatness this season, at least in terms of their record, losing by 1, 5, 3, and 3 points.

The team improved throughout the year, Shonn Greene and the offense carrying the load while the offense made fewer mistakes and won more of the close ones. Still, they regressed occasionally, such as the loss to Illinois and weak win at Purdue. But in between those they had their biggest win, handing Penn State their sole loss and putting them in company with Oregon State and Mississippi as 2008's giant killers. They finished strong with a 55-0 crushing of Minnesota.

Psychology

Simply put, Iowa turned their year around from a 2007 when they missed the bowl season. South Carolina had a season that doesn't wipe away the memories of last season's collapse. The Gamecocks lost their last two and three of their last five, while the Hawkeyes won five of their last six, going 8-4 after a 3-3 start.

Perhaps the most striking is the fact that South Carolina played their best in week one, ending with two of their worst games. Iowa won their last three, including the Penn State win and the off-the-charts demolition of Minnesota. The Hawkeyes should have a major emotional advantage going into the game.

Final analysis

Neither of these teams has a great offense overall, and both have strong defenses. But while South Carolina struggles to some extent both passing and running the ball, Iowa has a key offensive weapon in Shonn Greene, whom no team has shut down this season. While both teams have struggled to put points on the board at times this season, for the Gamecocks that's been a consistent pattern, while the Hawkeyes have exploded at times, putting up 45 at Indiana, 38 against Wisconsin, and 55 on Minnesota, all three of those in the 2nd half of the year.

Defensively, Iowa is excellent at stopping the run, and South Carolina has been easy to stop on the ground. That makes the air their best bet, but the Carolina quarterbacks are interception-prone as I have mentioned, and the Hawkeyes are among the leaders in interceptions.

This just doesn't look like a good matchup for South Carolina, especially on offense, and psychologically the teams are on different planets. I expect an Iowa rout as the Hawks position themselves to be among the Big Ten leaders next year (particularly if Greene returns) while Spurrier and the Gamecocks must regroup once again.

Prediction: Iowa 31   South Carolina 13

2008 Texas Bowl results - final score: Rice 38, Western Michigan 14

The Rice Owls did it—they won a bowl game for the first time in over 50 years, dominating Western Michigan 38-14 with an explosive offense and surprisingly stingy defense.

Quarterback Chase Clement did everything for the Owls—literally. He threw three touchdown passes, ran for one, and even caught one. He finished with 307 passing yards, 74 rushing yards, and 13 receiving yards as Rice built a 38-0 lead.

Clement's first score was a 26 yard run. A field goal put Rice up 10-0, after which two Clement touchdown passes—to Toren Dixon for 6 yards and James Casey for 45 yards—made it 24-0 at the half. Western Michigan had trouble moving the ball against Rice's normally porous defense, and when they did, mistakes killed the drives: they missed a field goal and quarterback Tim Hiller was intercepted twice before the break.

The 2nd half was much the same. Receiver Jarrett Dillard threw the touchdown pass to Clement, then received one himself early in the fourth quarter. With Rice up 38-0, Western Michigan finally got some offense going. Hiller threw two meaningless TD passes, the last one with 30 seconds left. Hiller finished with 198 yards, two TDs, and two interceptions.

With the win, Rice at 10-3 should get strong consideration for the final top 25. They lost only to three bowl teams: Vanderbilt, Tulsa, and Texas. Western Michigan (9-4), ranked #22 by SportsRatings before the game, will fall out, and Rice will be their replacement.

2008 Holiday Bowl results - final score: Oregon 42, Oklahoma State 31

Oregon pulled away late in the fourth quarter behind quarterback Jeremiah Masoli's running, defeating Oklahoma State 42-31 in a 2nd half shootout at the Holiday Bowl. Masoli scored four touchdowns with his feet and added another through the air.

The Cowboys looked good in the first half, racking up a 17-7 lead. Most of Oklahoma State's stars got involved, with Zac Robinson throwing to Dez Bryant for their first touchdown, and Kendall Hunter ran the ball in from the three-yard line. Oregon's only score came on a 76 yard run, with Jeremiah Johnson flanked by a crowd of blockers as he fought his way into the end zone.

Bryant, however, was hurt and left for the locker room. He eventually returned but had the vast majority of his 167 yards in the first half.

The second half started with a bang and never let up: Walter Thurmond took Oklahoma State's kickoff and ran it back 91 yards inside the five yard line; from there Masoli had his first TD. His next one came on a more impressive run, 41 yards through the heart of the Cowboy defense, and Oregon had its first lead, 21-17.

Still in the third quarter, Oklahoma State answered. Kendall Hunter ran it in from four yards out, but Masoli wasn't nearly finished: his 3rd rushing touchdown was a 17-yarder. The Ducks led 28-24.

In the fourth quarter momentum switch back to the Cowboys again. Zac Robinson led the team downfield once again, even catching a pass for 21 yards on the drive; he took it in from the one for Oklahoma State's last lead, 31-28. Masoli answered with his touchdown pass on the next drive.

Leading 35-31, Oregon stopped the Cowboys 3-and-out and drove all the way to the one yard line with LeGarrette Blount doing the legwork. But starting on 2nd down, they were stuffed three times by the Cowboy defense, and Oklahoma State had hope, down four with five minutes to go.

The Duck defense stepped up the pressure on Robinson, however, and the Cowboys had to punt. Masoli and Blount took it from there, driving for the last touchdown of the game and sealing the victory for the Ducks.

Masoli finished with over 100 rushing and 250 passing yards for the game. Robinson had 329 passing yards and one touchdown but had two interceptions.

Oregon (10-3) will move up in the final top 25, passing Oklahoma State (9-4) who hadn't lost to a team worse than 11-1 before this game. The Cowboys will remain in the top 25 ahead of Missouri, the best team they beat this year.

2009 Rose Bowl preview, odds, and prediction: USC vs. Penn State

Thursday January 1st: Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA 5:00 pm eastern

#8 Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) vs. #7 Southern Cal Trojans (11-1)

What a great Rose Bowl. The Grandaddy of Them All dodged a bullet when Oregon State lost to Oregon, and instead ended up with a great game.

Vegas line: Southern Cal by 9.

USC's history of winning big games helps make them a sizeable favorite, not to mention the near-home field advantage.

Strength Power Rating:  Southern Cal 29  Penn State 20

The Strength Power Rating agrees with the oddsmakers. The teams are almost even in scoring offense, with Penn State 9th and USC 10th, but the Trojan defense is #1 in the country allowing less than a touchdown a game when adjusted for competition. The Nittany Lion defense is no slouch, either, ranking 5th in the country, making this a matchup of teams with both top ten offenses and defenses.

Yardage analysis:   Southern Cal 34   Penn State 13

The yardage projection comes up with a USC blowout. Southern Cal's stats don't vary much from the scoring data; they rank 10th on offense, 2nd on defense. But Penn State's yardage stats are lower than their scoring stats, ranking them 22nd on offense and 15th on defense in terms of yardage gained and yielded. How do they make up the difference in points? Offensively, they rank in the top ten in red zone percentage and fewest turnovers, so they rarely gain meaningless yards. The defensive discrepancy is more of a mystery; they're not exceptionally good at red zone defense, forcing turnovers, or blocking kicks. The Lions are very good, though, at stopping 3rd down conversions, which can make a huge difference in preventing opponents from turning yardage into points.

When Southern Cal has the ball
Southern Cal rushing offense: #21         Penn State rushing defense: #10
Southern Cal passing offense: #23         Penn State passing defense: #54

USC has a very balanced attack. They're not great at either the running or passing game, just very solid in both. Using their patented stable of running backs and quarterback Mark Sanchez, the offense has seemed to alternately stall flourish at various times. When they're on, they're unstoppable, but when Sanchez is having a bad game and no back is stepping it up, they look somewhat average on O. Penn State is stingy against the run but allows a lot of passing yards, so if Sanchez is having one of his "good" days this would be their best route. But despite the yardage the Lions have allowed, they've only given up six touchdowns through the air this year compared to 16 interceptions, so the #54 ranking is misleading.

When Penn State has the ball
Penn State rushing offense: #22             Southern Cal rushing defense: #6
Penn State passing offense: #56             Southern Cal passing defense: #1

Penn State is more of a running team despite their spread offense, and led by Evan Royster they put up adjusted rushing yardage comparable to USC's. Their passing game is less productive, though the #56 ranking, like the Lions' pass defense ranking, is misleading: they have 22 TD passes to only 4 interceptions this year. Their passing game is very efficient when used. Daryll Clark is a decent running threat as well as a good passer. They'll be up against the toughest pass defense in the country in USC in terms of yardage (not) allowed; the Trojans also rank in the top 10 in stopping the run. Penn State's offense has their work cut out for them, as does any team that faces the Trojans.

Game-comparison win %
Penn State           69%
Southern Cal        31% 

With home field advantage added in, USC's game performances outshine those of Penn State. Aside from a few lesser games, the Trojans have consistenly played exceptional football. Penn State isn't that far behind but has been less consistently stellar, making USC an over 2-to-1 favorite.

Southern Cal's key games

Wins over bowl teams (5)

• #10 Ohio State 35-3 (2nd game of season)
• #18 Oregon 44-10 (4th)
• @ Arizona 17-10 (7th)
• California 17-3 (9th)
• Notre Dame 38-3 (11th)

Losses (1):

• @ #23 Oregon State 27-21

The chart says it all. USC has basically played three types of games: great, good, and Oregon State. The great wins include: at Virginia 52-7 (game 1), Ohio State 35-3, Oregon 44-10, and at Washington State 69-0 (game 6). The home wins over Washington (56-0, game 8) and Notre Dame are close to great. The merely "good" wins include beating ASU 28-0 (game 5), at Arizona 17-10 (game 7), the Cal win, and beating Stanford 45-23 on the road. The closing game at UCLA was above average at best.

Then there was the game at Oregon State, the one that haunted them all season. It was really just a bad half of football, as they almost came back to win, but it was enough to blemish their record and keep them out of the national title game. You can argue that it happened early in the season, but then again, so did all four of USC's best-played games. Since the back-to-back shutouts of ASU and Washington State, USC hasn't quite been as dominant. That may be from a bit of boredom, as they faced only two teams with winning records down the stretch (3 if you count Notre Dame). They should be "up" for Penn State, can they recapture their best form?

Penn State' key games

Wins over bowl teams (4):

• #23 Oregon State 45-14 (2nd game of season)
• @ Wisconsin 48-7 (7th)
• @ #10 Ohio State (9th)
• #19 Michigan State 49-18

Losses (4):

• @ #25 Iowa 24-23

It's a little surprising that these teams have so few wins over bowl opponents. The Nittany Lions have only four bowl team victories, in part because they chose to play Coastal Carolina, Syracuse, and Temple as pre-conference opponents. They did, however, play Oregon State, the team that beat USC, and thrash them convincingly. In conference play, they crushed Wisconsin and Michigan State, and held off Ohio State, another team that USC played (and beat much more easily than the Lions). So while their résumé of wins isn't extensive, they did beat three top 25 foes and beat three bowl teams with ease.

As Oregon State is to USC, Iowa is to Penn State: the team that prevented the national title run. Iowa's defense bottled up the Lions just enough, and the Hawkeye offense had just enough success to be in position to win it on a field goal. The game that followed, a 34-7 home win against lowly Indiana, was a worse performance despite the victory; they led just 10-7 at the half. However, that was just a case of letdown from the loss, as they snapped back big the next game against Michigan State.

Psychology

How can either team not be fired up for a classic contest like this? Both teams have equal disappointment at not making the national title game, but they have to know it was their fault and move on. Instead, they're both in the Rose Bowl, and facing arguably as good of an opponent as they'd have faced in a title game anyway. A touchdown here and there and both of these teams would be undefeated and playing each other in Miami on the 8th.

USC has all the talent in the world and good coaching. Their only pitfall the last couple of years has been overconfidence. That probably showed up for the Oregon State game, but the loss gave them a kick in the head. They've been less focused, too, in the 2nd half of the season, but facing Penn State will shake them out of that.

Penn State has had spottier success in recent years than USC, with 9 wins the last two years and 11 the year before. In fact, this season went a lot like the 2005 year for the Lions, with one last-second loss on the road blemishing their record. Facing USC essentially on the road is a daunting task, but they have something to prove. Hopefully they'll come in more fired up than intimidated.

Final analysis

Both teams have solid defenses. USC has given up a max of 27, Penn State has yielded 24 twice. Penn State has held teams to single digits five times; the Trojans? Eight times.

Both offenses have struggled some games and been bailed out by their defense. From this I would expect a lower-scoring game. Though each team can be explosive when they hit their strides offensively, they'll each be facing a shut-down defense.

Expanding on the game-comparison system, which I don't often go into depth with, but seems relevant here. Each team played 12 games, with their performances varying as you can see in the charts. All 12 of USC's games are compared to all 12 of Penn State's, yielding 144 matchup results. Most games, USC wins the matchup, including all 36 comparisons with USC's games against Virginia, Ohio State, and Oregon. Some they lose: USC's performance against Oregon State is judged to be 34 points worse than Penn State's win at Wisconsin.

In total, though, USC rates far higher. 71 of the 144 comparisons have USC over 9 points better, giving them a roughly 50% chance to beat the spread. 24 game-comparisons have them 28 points better. The Lions win only 44 of the matchups, about 30%, and only two comparisons show a 28 point margin. Split into quartiles:

• 25% of the results point to a USC win margin ranging from 21 to 42 points
• 25% of the results, USC wins by a range of 9 to 20 points
• 25% range from a USC win by 8 (19%) to a Penn State win by 3 (6%)
• 25% of the results, Penn State wins by 3 to 21 points (23%) or 22-34 points (2%)

But what if USC's first six games aren't used? That gets rid of their loss to Oregon State, but also makes their best performances go away. The (tenuous) theory is that USC started the year fully formed, while other squads needed time to develop, and have caught up ever-so-slightly. This result takes away the highs and lows, or in this case, the one low, showing what the team's been doing recently. Using these comparisons, Penn State actually wins more than the Trojans, 56% to 44%, even with home field advantage factored in.

So that's Penn State's hope: that USC's offense stalls as it has in the past, and the Lions themselves play one of their best games of the year. With USC's rise-to-the-occasion habit, it's not likely the Trojans will play less than their best. According to my numbers, a 2 point Penn State win is equally likely as a 19-point USC win, so my alternate prediction is USC 33, Penn State 14. But because it's more fun to go with the big upset than the safe pick, my prediction is:

Prediction: Penn State 23   Southern Cal 21

2008 Humanitarian Bowl results - Final Score: Maryland 42, Nevada 35

It was a tale of four very different quarters of football as Maryland ended the season on a high note, beating the Nevada Wolf Pack 42-35 in Boise to win the Humanitarian Bowl.

The first quarter was a back-and-forth affair. Maryland struck first on Chris Turner's 59 yard completion to Adrian Cannon, but Obi Egekeze missed the extra point. Nevada countered with Colin Kaepernick's 68-yard completion to Marko Mitchell which set up a short touchdown pass to Chris Wellington. Their 7-6 lead didn't last long, as Torrey Smith returned the ensuing kickoff 99 yards for a Maryland TD. The Wolf Pack finished the first quarter scoring, Vai Taua taking it in from 17 yards out to put Nevada up 14-13.

The second quarter was all Maryland; the Terrapins scored twice, once right at the start of the quarter on a 53-yard run by Morgan Green; and then with less than a minute left in the half, Turner completing both the 14-yard TD pass and a two-point conversion, making up for the early PAT miss and making it 28-14 at the break.

The third quarter was all Nevada's defense and Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick had two touchdown passes, the first of which was set up by a Nevada interception that gave them the ball on the Maryland 22. The latter followed a Maryland fumble on Nevada's 30-yard-line and actually came early in the 4th and tied the game at 28 all. For the day Kaepernick passed for 369 yards and three touchdowns.

The fourth quarter was all Da'Rel Scott. The Maryland back—who didn't even play the first half due to disciplinary reasons—had two touchdown runs, a long one (from mid-field) and a short one (from the 2 yard line). But Scott set that score up himself with runs of 11, 23, and 30 yards, covering 66 yards in four plays on his own. He finished with 174 yards in roughly 20 minutes of action.

Kaepernick gave the Wolf Pack fans hope, completing four first-down passes then taking it in on a 15-yard touchdown run to make it 42-35 with just over two minutes left, but Maryland recovered the onside kick and Scott ran the clock out.

I called this game wrong but I'm not concerned, as no sane person would bet for or against Maryland this year, as variable as their play has been in an up-and-down season. Their performance especially in the 2nd and 4th quarters reflected their best play and gave them the win and an 8-5 finish. Nevada ends 7-6, but they'll be dangerous next season with the most of their young team's best players back.

2008 Chik-Fil-A Bowl preview, odds, and prediction: Georgia Tech vs. LSU

Wednesday December 31st: Chik-Fil-A Bowl in Atlanta, GA 7:30 pm eastern

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9-3) vs. Louisiana State Tigers (7-5)

A year ago LSU was playing for the national championship; now they invade Yellow Jacket territory to salvage some semblance of a successful season.

Vegas line: Georgia Tech by 4.

Georgia Tech beat Georgia, who clobbered LSU. Therefore, Tech is a slight favorite playing in their home city of Atlanta.

Strength Power Rating:  Georgia Tech 29    Louisiana State 23

Georgia Tech's triple option offense is 28th in scoring, its defense even better at #14. LSU is 31st on offense but only 75th on defense. How far they've fallen since last season's Glen Dorsey-led defense.

Yardage analysis:   Georgia Tech 28    Louisiana State 24

The yardage projection is a bit closer; run-based offenses generate fewer yards than balanced or pass-happy offenses. Tech is 29th on offense, 55th on defense; LSU is 42nd and 37th. The teams are neck-and-neck in yardage, with home field advantage giving Tech some breathing room.

When Louisiana State has the ball
Louisiana State rushing offense: #37           Georgia Tech rushing defense: #33
Louisiana State passing offense: #57           Georgia Tech passing defense: #83

The teams match up pretty well when LSU has the ball. The Tiger ground game with Charles Scott meet a strong Tech rush defense. LSU has a slight advantage in the passing game, but they've had trouble with QB Jarrett Lee and interceptions (with several returned for touchdowns). Georgia Tech is in the top ten in the nation in interceptions.

When Georgia Tech has the ball
Georgia Tech rushing offense: #1                   Louisiana State rushing defense: #21
Georgia Tech passing offense: #118               Louisiana State passing defense: #73

Everyone knows what Georgia Tech is going to do: run the ball. And what's scary is how short a time it took them to run it so well. LSU's rushing defense is good, but it will be put to the test in a big way. If they succeed, though, they pretty much take Tech's offense out of the game.

Game-comparison win %
Georgia Tech         67%
Louisiana State      33%  

Georgia Tech is a 2/3 favorite at home (or rather, close to home).

Georgia Tech's key games

Wins over bowl teams (5)

• @ Boston Coll. 24-17 (2nd game of season)
• @ Clemson 21-17 (7th)
• Florida State 31-28 (9th)
• Miami 41-23 (11th)
• @ #17 Georgia 45-42 (4th)
  

Losses (3):

• @ Virginia Tech 20-17
• Virginia 24-17
  
• @ North Carolina 28-7

Many have stated that Georgia Tech got better at running the triple option as the the season progressed. But if you look at their actual performances, the Yellow Jackets had only three real lapses all year: the late losses to Virginia and North Carolina, where the offense scored just 7 points in each game, and the pathetic 10-7 home win over Gardner-Webb, easily the worst game they played all season.

So for half the year, the offense was sputtering, racking up yards and points one game while faltering the next. They recovered for the final two games, overwhelming Miami and humiliating Georgia in their two best offensive performances. The defense allowed 23 or more points in all of their last six games after holding every team 20 or under for the first six, including ACC championship teams Virginia Tech and Boston College.

LSU's key games

Wins over bowl teams (2):

• @ South Carolina 24-17 (6th game of season)
• Troy 40-31 (10th)

Losses (5):

• @ #5 Florida 51-21
• #15 Georgia 52-38
• #6 Alabama 27-21 (ot)
• #24 Mississippi 31-13
• @ Arkansas 31-30

Last season LSU was 6-2 against bowl teams before the BCS title game. This year they're 2-4, with an extra loss against a non-bowl team.

Last year they dominated bowl teams Virginia Tech and Mississippi State by a combined 93-7; this year they edged South Carolina by a touchdown, and were down four TDs to Troy before rallying. Their most impressive win was very likely their opener against I-AA Appalachian State.

Last year both losses were in double overtime; this season they were beat by 30 by Florida, 15 by Georgia, and 18 by Mississippi. They lost three times at home.

On the bright side, they played Alabama close, almost giving them their first loss. Still their chart reflects a team that is just above average, and has been declining as reality set in that this was not going to be another big year for LSU football.

Psychology

Georgia Tech might feel like they deserve better than the "Chik-Fil-A" bowl, facing a LSU team that lost handily to the Georgia team that the Yellow Jackets beat. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are playing on January 1st.

But they're playing in their home town, and playing last season's national champion. After an off-season of major uncertainty with the arrival of a new coach and a radically different system, this year's success has been phenomenal.

The Tigers can't be happy about how the season turned out. As the big losses kept coming, LSU played worse against lesser competition, almost getting destroyed by Troy, then getting destroyed by Mississippi, then losing to Arkansas. A month off probably won't change their attitude—this season is a downer.

Final analysis

While the Tech rushing game vs. the Tiger defense is a good matchup, that's not the key to this game in my opinion. Neither is the Tiger rushing offense vs. the Tech rushing defense, though that's also a matchup of good units. The key is psychology: LSU is in decline and I don't see them snapping out of it. Meanwhile the Yellow Jackets still have something to prove, and they want to do it in Atlanta against the cream of the SEC crop for this decade.

I think the Tech defense will have a good outing. LSU has been plagued by interceptions and that's what this defense does well. So even if the Tigers move the ball through the air, they'll get caught by the interception bug at least once or twice. And while Charles Scott should grind out some yards, that matchup's a wash. The Tech running game will give LSU all it can handle, and produce enough to win the game.

The Troy game showed the two faces of LSU: how poorly they can play and how good they can be when they recover. Should they get rolling behind their defense they have a chance. So it all comes down to emotion. But if Georgia Tech plays as spirited as it did in beating Georgia, there's little hope. My guess is that Tech comes in high and LSU flat, leading to a surprisingly lopsided win for the Yellow Jackets.

Prediction: Georgia Tech 34   Louisiana State 17

2008 Insight Bowl preview, odds, and prediction: Kansas vs. Minnesota

Wednesday December 31st: Music City Bowl in Tempe, AZ 5:30 pm eastern

Kansas Jayhawks (7-5) vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-5)

One team is coming off a 12-1 season, the other a 1-11 season. They meet in the middle at 7-5 in the Insight bowl (remember the good old days when it still had its traditional name, the Insight.com Bowl?)

Vegas line: Kansas by 9.

Kansas is a pretty heavy favorite according to the oddsmakers.

Strength Power Rating:  Kansas 31    Minnesota 22

The Strength Power Rating gives Kansas almost as much of an advantage as Vegas does, but not quite. Though the teams' records have converged at 7-5, Kansas still has a much better offense, ranked 21st in adjusted scoring, while Minnesota's is just 81st. On defense the disparity from 2007 is almost gone. Last year Kansas ranked 5th and Minnesota 107th; this year Kansas is 56th and Minnesota 61st.

Yardage analysis:   Kansas 38    Minnesota 20

In yardage the Jayhawks match their scoring numbers almost exactly: 18th on offense and 56th on defense. The Gophers are 79th in offensive yardage and 84 on defense adjusted for opposition. The defense gives up a lot of yards like last year, but those yards aren't capitalized on by opponents at nearly the same rate. One reason is turnovers: the Gophers rank 10th in turnover margin, ranking 6th in fumbles recovered. But on yardage alone, Kansas becomes a much bigger favorite.

When Minnesota has the ball
Minnesota rushing offense: #97           Kansas rushing defense: #56
Minnesota passing offense: #54           Kansas passing defense: #59

Kansas doesn't have an exceptional defense this year; it could be called pedestrian, especially compared to last year's lockdown squad. They're missing Aqib Talib among others. But Minnesota for all their improvement hasn't become an offensive juggernaut by any means. The rushing game, which not long ago had tandem 1,000 yard gainers, looks not much better than in 2007. Quarterback Adam Weber is a lot more consistent than he was as a freshman, and his passing will have to carry the Gopher offense. With top receiver Eric Decker hobbled in recent games, he hasn't been as effective; Decker should be back and mostly healthy for the bowl game, but the Gophers have been working on their running game in the interim, trying to give an extra boost to the spread.

When Kansas has the ball
Kansas rushing offense: #70             Minnesota rushing defense: #52
Kansas passing offense: #11             Minnesota passing defense: #111

Kansas lost a lot of player on offense, too, but one they got back is quarterback Todd Reesing. Without receiver Marcus Henry, Reesing hasn't had quite the year he did in '07, but he's still had 3,500 yards and 28 touchdowns. The running game isn't there to take the pressure off, but Minnesota's passing defense is poor enough that they shouldn't need that help. The Gophers aren't incompetent when it comes to sacks, interceptions, or pass efficiency defense, but they're not among the top teams, either, so expect to see Reesing have a good day.

Game-comparison win %
Kansas              65%
Minnesota         35%  

Kansas's game performance percentage to win is roughly 2/3. A lot of Minnesota's worst performances came in their last four games, and those games compare unfavorably to the lion's share of Kansas' work.

Kansas' key games

Wins over bowl teams (2)

• Louisiana Tech 29-0 (2nd game of season)
• = Missouri 40-37 (12th)

Losses (5):

• @ South Florida 37-34
• @ #2 Oklahoma 45-31
• #3 Texas Tech 63-21
• @ Nebraska 45-35
• #1 Texas 35-7

Kansas went the entire season without an impressive win. Finally on the last game of the season they edged Missouri; additionally their 29-0 blanking of Louisiana Tech looked better once the Bulldogs became bowl eligible.

All five of the Jayhawks' losses were to bowl teams, including the big three of the Big Twelve, Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech. The loss to the Red Raiders was by far their worst game; other than that they played well even in losing, playing Oklahoma very well on the road.

Minnesota's key games

Wins over bowl teams (2):

• Northern Illinois 31-27 (1st game of season)
• Florida Atlantic 37-3 (4th)

Losses (5):

• @ #10 Ohio State 34-21
• #21 Northwestern 24-17
• Michigan 29-6
• @ Wisconsin 35-32
• #25 Iowa 55-0

The Gophers two wins over bowl teams came in their first four games, and both at home. After starting 7-1, they lost four straight. Two were games they should have won but blew, against Northwestern and Wisconsin; and two were dominations, losing to Michigan and Iowa at home in terrible performances.

Psychology

Minnesota has had a complete turnaround from their 1-11 season last year. Kansas has fallen quite a bit from last season's 12-1. That would suggest that the Gophers would have the psychological advantage. But it's not that simple.

Kansas' drop was not nearly as far as the record suggests. They arguably lost to three top five teams, and finished the year by beating the only team to beat them last year.

Meanwhile the Gophers have been playing terribly lately, ending 0-4 and getting absolutely dominated at home 55-0 in the final. Overall, the psychology is probably close to even, and possibly could tilt toward the Jayhawks.

Final analysis

What happened to the Gophers? Why did they lose their final four games, two of them disastrously? It could just be schedule: their pre-season and early Big Ten schedule was fairly soft overall. It could be injuries that disrupted the team. It could be partly luck, as two of the games were nearly in hand. Or could it be an overall breakdown?

The real question is: whatever went wrong, will it be fixed in time for the game? Injuries can heal, luck can change, and even a breakdown can pass in a month's time. But if Minnesota was simply outclassed by the competition, they won't catch a break against Kansas, who is on par with the teams that bedevilled the Gophers in their last month.

The close losses to Northwestern and Wisconsin don't necessarily mean anything other than perhaps a tired team making mistakes. The loss to lowly Michigan, and the 55-0 loss to Iowa, are causes for concern. Those games were too poorly played to give Minnesota much confidence going into this game. Their offense is going to have a rough time, and the pass defense will have to rise to the occasion. They really don't have anything to prove, either; going from 1-11 to 7-5 is remarkable enough. Does it really diminish it to be 7-6?

Prediction: Kansas 27   Minnesota 13

2008 Music City Bowl preview, odds, and prediction: Boston College vs. Vanderbilt

Wednesday December 31st: Music City Bowl in Nashville, TN 3:30 pm eastern

Boston College Eagles (9-4) vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6)

A contest that might not be considered very competitive except for the fact that the game's being played in Nashville, home to the Commodores.

Vegas line: Boston College by 3 1/2.

Boston College, the ACC #2 team, is still the favorite by the oddsmakers.

Strength Power Rating:  Boston College 20    Vanderbilt 18

The Strength Power Rating has B.C. favored by just two after home field advantage is figured in. The Eagles are 42nd in scoring offense and a solid 24th in scoring defense, adjusted for opposition. Vanderbilt is just as good or better on defense at #21, but is only 82nd on offense and struggled to put points on the board through much of the season.

Yardage analysis:   Boston College 14    Vanderbilt 10

Looking at yardage, the score estimate comes in even lower. Both teams average pretty low yardage, with Boston College's offense at #77 and Vanderbilt at a lowly #114. On defense, Boston College is #14 and Vanderbilt #32. But these are offense-only stats; both teams have defenses that can create turnovers, which can either score points or set up a short field for the offense. Boston College is #1 in interceptions and the Commodores are in the top ten.

When Vanderbilt has the ball
Vanderbilt rushing offense: #51           Boston College rushing defense: #4
Vanderbilt passing offense: #114         Boston College passing defense: #81

Boston College gives up a lot of passing yards despite their penchant for intercepting the ball, but they won't have to worry too much about Vanderbilt's quarterbacks, who completed less than 50% of their passes this season. Against the run Boston College is one of the best, and should have little trouble stanching the Commodores' ground attack. This is one reason why the projected scores are so low: Vandy has little offensive firepower.

When Boston College has the ball
Boston College rushing offense: #58             Vanderbilt rushing defense: #70
Boston College passing offense: #86             Vanderbilt passing defense: #13

Boston College doesn't have an overwhelming offense, either. They're a far cry from last year with Matt Ryan; now QB Chris Crane is likely still out with injury, leaving Dominique Davis to run the show. He's been less accurate but not as interception-prone as Crane in the limited play he's seen so far. Luckily for the Eagles, putting up a huge amount of offense shouldn't be absolutely necessary this game.

Game-comparison win %
Boston College        58%
Vanderbilt               42%  

Boston College's game performances rate higher than Vanderbilt's, so even after home field advantage the Eagles are rated a 58% chance to win.

Vanderbilt's key games

Wins over bowl teams (4)

• South Carolina 24-17 (2nd game of season)
• Rice 38-21 (3rd)
• @ #24 Mississippi 23-17 (4th)
  
• @ Kentucky 31-24 (10th)

Losses (6):

• @ Mississippi State 17-14
• @ #17 Georgia 24-14
• Duke 10-7
• #5 Florida 42-14
• Tennessee 20-10
• @ Wake Forest 23-10

Vanderbilt beat four bowl teams among its six victims, three of them among the first four games. In fact, Vandy began 5-0 and won only one game in its last seven. Among the six losses were Georgia and Florida, but also mediocre Mississippi State, Duke, and Tennessee.

In all of their wins, the defense held the opposition below 24 points, and Florida was the only team to score more than 24 against them. In each of their losses, Vanderbilt failed to score more than 14 points.

Boston College' key games

Wins over bowl teams (6):

• @ N.C. State 38-31 (5th game of season)
• Virginia Tech 28-23 (6th)
• Notre Dame 17-0 (9th)
• @ Florida State 27-17 (10th)
• @ Wake Forest 24-21 (11th)
• @ Maryland 28-21 (12th)

Losses (4):

• @ #15 Georgia Tech 19-16
• @ North Carolina 45-24
• Clemson 27-21
• = Virginia Tech 30-12

Though they have six bowl team victories, none are over consensus great teams, and most of the wins were very close. That's a product of their low-impact offense, that rarely leaves another team in the dust.

The Eagles' first six games were very consistent as they went 5-1, but their next loss was one of their worst games. After another loss, to Clemson, Boston College had their best string of games, shutting out Notre Dame and beating Florida State and Wake Forest on the road back-to-back. In the ACC championship, B.C. laid an egg against Virginia Tech.

Psychology

Vanderbilt has to be happy to be in a bowl game for the first time in 26 years, but how happy can they be with losing six out of their last seven games? I guess that a quarter-century milestone outweighs a late-season disappointment. After 26 years, backing into a bowl game is just fine.

As for Boston College, they went from a potential BCS bowl down to playing a 6-6 team in their home town. But again, after losing their star player last season no one knew what to expect, and going 9-4 is pretty good.

Final analysis

It doesn't take a genius to predict a low-scoring game here. The over/under is a stingy 41 points according to the oddsmakers. Both teams have solid defenses and very questionable offenses.The game might be won by the team whose defense can make the bigger plays to give the offense a boost. In low-scoring games, of course, momentum can turn from one team to the other quickly.

While Vandy might be more excited about being in this bowl game, they're also on the tail end of a 1-6 run, and though they're at home, that doesn't mean as much between these teams. The Commodores have lost three home games, including the loss to Duke, while the Eagles have four road wins including three bowl teams. So discounting the home field advantage and assuming the teams play to form, I give it to the Eagles in a deliberate, defense-dominated slog.

Prediction: Boston College 21   Vanderbilt 14