College Football

BCS Analysis, week 8: is TCU headed to the national title game?

Florida or Alabama in the BCS championship game? Predictable. TCU as their opponent? More likely than you think.

Here are the latest BCS rankings. The press has been covering the changes by saying that USC had moved up to #5, while TCU passed Boise State. Basically, all that happened is that Boise State and Cincinnati fell three spots each, from #4 and #5 to #7 and #8. Iowa, USC, and TCU slid up from 6, 7, and 8 to 4, 5, and 6. But in terms of game-play, #3 Texas was the only impressive team in the top 5, beating Missouri on the road 41-7. #1 Florida struggled at Mississippi State, 29-19; #2 Alabama barely beat Tennessee at home, 12-10; #4 Iowa just edged Michigan State 15-13, and #5 USC got into a shootout at home against Oregon State, prevailing 42-36. Yet all four either held their spot or moved up, thanks to the BCS computers which aren't allowed to use margin of victory.

#7 Boise State and #8 Cincinnati both won big—the Broncos 54-9 at Hawaii and the Bearcats 41-10 over Louisville—but the wins over weak teams didn't get them many points in the computer rankings. TCU was the big winner on Saturday, gaining cred with both voters and computers for their 38-7 trashing of BYU.

Now we have to ask whether USC could get into the national championship ahead of an undefeated BCS-conference team. It's assumed that an undefeated Florida/Alabama and Texas have nothing to worry about. But Iowa and Cincinnati could be passed by the Trojans.

Iowa has a lot of upward potential in the Coaches and Harris polls, however, and is #1 in the computer rankings. Even if they keep winning by the skin of their teeth they'll remain ahead with the computers, and a few solid wins will allow them to move up in the polls. It might be close, but Iowa probably edges USC if a spot opens for the national title game.

Cincinnati has problems, however, being three spots behind the Trojans. Worse, they're behind TCU in the computer rankings and roughly tied in the polls. Next week's Syracuse game won't help them much, and having Illinois on their schedule is now a detriment. They should pass Boise State at some time, but a lot of teams might have to lose to help an undefeated Bearcats team make the national championship game.

Let's look again at each team's remaining schedule and project each game, giving it a percentage-to-win value. Then we'll compute the team's overall % chance to finish the season undefeated. We'll do this by using the X-conference 726-team power rating to give every game a team has played a rating; we then cross-compare all of these ratings with the game ratings of their opponent and see how many of the cross-comparisons are victories. Basically it's a way to look at all the aspects a team has shown so far in the season, from their worst to the best performances, since on a given day any version of a team could "show up." The method is explained in more depth here.

For each team a record is projected: First, simply by counting wins and losses based on whether a team is favored in that game, and second, by adding the percentages to obtain a cumulative projection, or rather the record a team is most likely to finish at. Odds of going undefeated are computed by multiplying the odds of winning each game.

Florida remaining schedule & forecast
10/31	Sat	N	*Georgia	85.7%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	99.9%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*South Carolina	92.9%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	Florida International	99.9%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	Florida State	89.8%	W
12/5	Sat	vs.	Alabama?	50.0%	??
Favored: 12-0-1   Projected: 12-1
Odds of going 12-0: 71.5%, 13-0: 35.7% (up 0.2%)

Florida Gators (7-0; BCS rank: #1)

The Gators' problems with Mississippi State gave the rest of the teams on their slate a bit more hope—but not much. Georgia and South Carolina increased their odds, but Vanderbilt and FIU still have only a snowball's chance.

But Alabama struggled, too, and that tilted the inevitable confrontation from a slight 'Bama win into a dead heat. As a result, while Florida's chances of going 12-0 fell 3 percentage points, their odds of going 13-0 went up by 0.2%.

The projected number of wins declined slightly from 12.198 to 12.184, basically saying that a 12-1 season is the "expected value" outcome. The game-comparison system doesn't pick a favorite in the SEC title game but the power rating it's based on does: Florida is slightly less than a point ahead of Alabama now, and therefore would be considered the favorite. But it's already assumed that one of these two teams would be in national championship game, and I'll compare both to Texas and any other teams that have a good chance of being their opponent.

Alabama remaining schedule & forecast
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Louisiana State	89.3%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	93.8%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	Tennessee-Chattanooga	99.9%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*Auburn	81.3%	W
12/5	Sat	N	Florida?	50.0%	??
Favored: 12-0-1   Projected: 12-1
Odds of going 12-0: 68.1%, 13-0 34.0% down 1.9%

Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0; BCS rank: #2)

Having Tennessee out of the way really helps Alabama's odds of going 12-0, taking away the uncertainty of what was seen as their toughest test before likely facing Florida. But their poor performance in the game hurt them, increasing the odds that other teams on their slate can beat them.

LSU's odds jumped four percentage points; Mississippi State's by the same; and Auburn's odds by six and a half. Only Chattanooga didn't gain any semblance of hope from the Tide's narrow win.

Overall the Tide slightly regressed, decreasing their odds of going 12-0 from 68.5% to 68.1%. That's pretty remarkable for getting a win that wasn't a foregone conclusion. Normally with each win the odds should take a sizeable jump, but Alabama's performance introduced more uncertainty than the win removed. Their odds of going 13-0 took a hit, too, falling from 35.9% to 34.0%.

Texas remaining schedule & forecast
10/31	Sat	@	*Oklahoma State	79.6%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	Central Florida	99.9%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Baylor	99.9%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Kansas	95.9%	W
11/26	Thu	@	*Texas A&M	85.7%	W
12/5	Sat	vs.	Nebraska?	69.4%	W
Favored: 13-0   Projected: 12-1
Odds of going 12-0: 65.7%: 13-0: 45.4% down 11.6%

Texas Longhorns (7-0; BCS rank: #3)

Texas didn't remove any uncertainty by beating Missouri, whom they were basically given a 100% chance to beat by the game-comparison system. And by winning in such a forceful fashion, they should have further decreased many of their future opponents' meager odds of beating them.

But Oklahoma State's showing against Baylor pushed the Cowboys up in the ratings and created a major re-evaluation of the game-pairs against Texas; now the Cowboys win a few more close contests and from a 5.6% chance last week they are now given a 20.4% chance at home.

UCF and Baylor still have no hope, but Kansas's odds increase slightly, and Texas A&M's take a big leap after their blowout win over Texas Tech. So despite the Longhorns playing perhaps their best game of the year at Missouri, the road to a 12-0 season just got a lot tougher, dropping from 89.2% to 65.4%. In fact, just the game at Oklahoma State is now seen as more dangerous that their entire remaining schedule was just last week. This is likely the result of having more data; last week's odds were inflated, and have corrected more toward reality.

Another huge development for Texas is the uncertainty in the North division. With Nebraska losing it's harder to project an opponent. We could go through a rigorous process of giving a percentage chance for each possible opponent, but that's beyond the scope of these projections (and beyond what I'm willing to calculate). Instead, forecasting game by game, here is the predicted finish in the North:

Team         conf    all
Nebraska     5-3     8-4
Missouri     4-4     8-4
Iowa State   4-4     7-5
Kansas       3-5     7-5
Kansas State 3-5     5-7
Colorado     1-7     2-10

So Texas is still likely to face Nebraska, in Dallas, for the Big Twelve championship. The Cornhuskers' odds of getting an upset have decreased from 36% to less than 31%. Still, Texas' chances of going 13-0 have declined from last week, from 57% down to 45.4%. The system is saying that it's more likely than not that they suffer a loss somewhere along the way.

Iowa remaining schedule & forecast
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Indiana	93.8%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Northwestern	95.3%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Ohio State	43.8%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Minnesota	85.9%	W
Favored: 11-1   Projected: 11-1
Odds of going undefeated: 33.6% up 10.2%

Iowa Hawkeyes (8-0; BCS rank: #4)

Iowa got rid of a big chunk of uncertainty by beating Michigan State, last second TD pass or not. But the odds for their remaining games—including a projected loss at Ohio State—remain roughly the same. So while the Hawkeyes odds of going undefeated take a big jump, they don't surpass the critical 50% threshold.

Home games against Indiana and Northwestern are still seen as safe, and the road trip to Ohio State is still a likely loss. Even if they get past that, Minnesota offers somewhat of a challenge. Things are looking better than last week, when Iowa had less that a 1 in 4 chance of going undefeated; now they have about a 1 in 3 chance. Still not great, but better.

Not only that, but as mentioned above their chances for going to the national title game should they go undefeated are looking pretty good.

TCU remaining schedule & forecast
10/31	Sat	vs.	*UNLV	99.9%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*San Diego State	95.9%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Utah	91.8%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Wyoming	99.9%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	*New Mexico	99.9%	W
Favored: 12-0   Projected: 12-0
Odds of going undefeated: 88.0% up 32%

TCU Horned Frogs (7-0; BCS rank: #6)

More than any other team, by far, TCU improved both their odds of going undefeated and their chances of going to a BCS bowl game. They even considerably improved their chances of playing for the national championship.

The strong win over BYU bumped them up in the voter polls, improved their power rating, and took away the majority of the uncertainty from the rest of their season. BYU had a 40% chance of upsetting the Horned Frogs, contributing most of TCU's 44% chance to lose a game.

But with more game data becoming available, a few of their opponents' chances increase. San Diego State goes from hopeless to a 4% chance of upset. Utah makes a slight gain, too. But UNLV, Wyoming, and New Mexico are judged foregone conclusions. All told, TCU now has an 88% chance of going undefeated, up from last week's 56%.

But like last week, what that will mean is unknown. Now that we're projecting Texas to lose a game, this creates an opening, one that Iowa can't fill due to their projected loss. TCU is next in line among the undefeated teams, but is behind USC. And while Boise State probably won't catch them, Cincinnati could gain support from voters and even the computers since TCU's remaining schedule is soft overall.

The USC question is relevant: will the Trojans win out? The answer, after looking at just their next game, is no. Probably not.

USC (6-1, BCS#4) odds
@Oregon:      40.8% L
@Arizona St:  83.7% W
Stanford:     73.2% W
UCLA:         83.7% W
Arizona:      71.4% W
Favored: 10-2 Cume: 10-2 (9.53 wins)
Odds of winning out: 14.9%         

Oregon is a 59% favorite by the game-comparison system. And several of their other games could present a challenge, too. Overall USC is expected to barely manage to go 4-1. Beating Oregon would help a lot, but even then they'd be expected to drop one of their last four games. So for the purposes of this projection USC can be discounted for now.

The upshot is that TCU is close to being a favorite for the national title game. It will come down to the particulars of the BCS system, but right now Texas, Iowa, and USC all seem to be facing a loss. Of the three, only the Longhorns' loss is a "cumulative" loss, i.e. there is no specific team that is pegged to beat them. They are favored to win every game. So seeing Texas lose is the most important thing for TCU fans.

Boise State remaining schedule & forecast
10/31	Sat	vs.	*San Jose State	99.9%	W
11/6	Fri	@	*Louisiana Tech	93.9%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Idaho	96.4%	W
11/20	Fri	@	*Utah State	93.9%	W
11/27	Fri	vs.	*Nevada	87.8%	W
12/05	Sat	vs.	*New Mexico State	99.9%	W
Favored: 13-0   Projected: 13-0
Odds of going undefeated: 74.6% up 1.1%

Boise State Broncos (7-0; BCS rank: #7)

Boise State shredded Hawaii 54-9 last weekend with a particularly strong defensive performance in a road game. The win itself didn't do much for their odds, as they were a 97.2% favorite, but the winning margin helped their odds in the upcoming games against Louisiana Tech and Idaho. But Nevada, who beat Idaho badly, added a bit to their odds for the upset. San Jose State and New Mexico State remained near-certainties.

When all is said and done, Boise State's odds of going undefeated increase about a bit less than you'd expect after knocking off a foe like Hawaii. From 73.5% last week, the Broncos now have a 74.6% chance of winning all six of their remaining games. With almost a 3 in 4 chance of being 13-0, you'd think they'd be sitting pretty, but a few bad developments hit in the BCS rankings. Mainly, TCU passing them—coupled with the Horned Frogs' now-overwhelming odds of going undefeated—mean that Boise State may be left out of a BCS bowl at 13-0.

Broncos fans could hope for a TCU loss, but this year there's actually a decent chance that two non-BCS teams could be in BCS bowls, especially if TCU makes it to the national title game. So maybe Boise State fans should root for possible BCS bowl teams like Notre Dame to lose, which is more likely.

Cincinnati remaining schedule & forecast
10/31	Sat	@	*Syracuse	99.9%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Connecticut	98.0%	W
11/13	Fri	vs.	*West Virginia	98.0%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	Illinois	99.9%	W
12/5	Sat	@	*Pittsburgh	64.3%	W
Favored: 12-0   Projected: 12-0
Odds of going undefeated: 61.7% down 2.2%

Cincinnati Bearcats (7-0; BCS rank: #8)

Cincinnati has four games it should definitely win, and then a tough road game. Even if they win out, they might be left out after dropping to #8 in the BCS, but anything can happen.

The Syracuse and Illinois games are all but certain. The UConn and West Virginia home game odds took a big jump this week and are at near-certain status, too. West Virginia and UConn are both good teams who have played consistently above average football, but neither has had many great games. The upshot is that almost all of their performances rate below the Bearcats' performances, which have been stellar and very consistent, too.

The one game whose odds decline is the all-important showdown with Pitt. The Panthers blasted USF Saturday and the game is looking daunting. With the increased odds for the two other games, Cincy almost holds its percentage even, but it declines slightly from 63.9 to 61.7%. Cincinnati has to keep winning impressively during the next four-game stretch so it can be in position to stake a claim in the title game should lots of other teams fall.

How Many Teams Will Go Undefeated?

Last week the odds said that three (and almost four) teams would be expected to remain undefeated before the bowl games, and tallied individually, five teams had a greater than 50% chance of doing so. Now, even though every team won last week, only four can make that claim. But that matches the new expected number of undefeated teams. The odds of six teams going undefeated took a big jump, from 1.2% to 4.3%, and the odds of all seven teams suffering a loss fell from 0.4% to just 0.13%.

Who will the undefeated teams be?

1. TCU: 88.0%
2. Boise State 74.6%
3. Florida/Alabama: 69.7%
4. Cincinnati: 61.7%
5. Texas: 45.4%
6. Iowa: 33.6%

Most likely, we'll see TCU, Boise State, Florida *or* Alabama, and Cincinnati unbeaten. Texas will lose an unspecified game (probably Nebraska in the Big Twelve title game) and Ohio State is favored to beat Iowa.

If this happens, we'll see the Florida/Alabama winner against TCU or Cincinnati. Both have their drawbacks: TCU is a non-BCS school and Cincinnati's schedule is soft. But there aren't many viable 1-loss teams to replace them.

We've ruled out USC above, and the next four in the current standings are LSU, Oregon, Georgia Tech, and Penn State. LSU is expected to lose to Alabama; Oregon could win out and still be behind Boise State, the team that beat them; likewise a 1-loss Penn State would be logically behind a 1-loss Iowa. Georgia Tech's remaining schedule is kind—perhaps too kind to get them to pass Cincy or TCU, even with an ACC title game win. In short, only USC or LSU seems in position to make a run at the title game, and both have a rough road to get there.

With the Florida/Alabama game a 50/50 proposition (Florida by 1 point by score margin, though) and TCU-Cincinnati an unknown (though we suggest TCU is in better position), we'll look at all four matchups, from most expected to least expected:

Florida 61.2% over TCU

Alabama 62.5% over TCU

Florida 59.2% over Cincinnati

Alabama 62.5% over Cincinnati

So the winner of the SEC title game is expected to win the national title. No big shocker there. Both of them lose to Texas, however, so they better hope that the Longhorns suffer that unspecified upset! If Texas beats Oklahoma State next week, they'll probably again be over 50% and then favored to win it all. Right now only cumulative odds are preventing us from putting Texas in the title game, and cumulative odds become less meaningful the fewer games a team has left.

BCS Analysis, Week 7: Who has the best chance of going undefeated?

Now that the first BCS rankings are out, it's time to gaze into the crystal ball and divine the future. Since seven of the top eight teams are undefeated, the first logical question is, which of these teams have the best odds of finishing the season undefeated? A corollary question is, how many teams overall will finish unbeaten? And what does this mean for the BCS and in particular, the national title game?

First, we can pretty much divide the undefeated teams into three groups. #1 Florida, #2 Alabama, and #3 Texas are teams who are guaranteed to be in the national title game if they go undefeated. Next, #5 Cincinnati and #6 Iowa are teams who are 99.9% certain to be in the title game if they go undefeated and the top three all lose. There is a small chance that a 1-loss team (#7 USC or one of the teams above) could finish ahead, but very little; after all, they are both from BCS conferences and are already very high in the ratings. Finally, #4 Boise State and #8 TCU are two teams who will probably not be in the national title game even if they are undefeated. If both are undefeated, one will likely be left out of a BCS bowl, while the other is guaranteed a berth.

So let's look at each team's remaining schedule and project each game, giving it a percentage-to-win value. Then we'll compute the team's overall % chance to finish the season undefeated. We'll do this by using the X-conference 727-team power rating to give every game a team has played a rating; we then cross-compare all of these ratings with the game ratings of their opponent and see how many of the cross-comparisons are victories. Basically it's a way to look at all the aspects a team has shown so far in the season, from their worst to the best performances, since on a given day any version of a team could "show up." The method is explained in more depth here.

One thing that stands out is how good the odds of going undefeated are for these teams. All but one of them ranks in the top 10 in the Strength power rating, and for the most part they've all conquered the tougher part of their schedule. But on to the prognostication.

For each team a record is projected: First, simply by counting wins and losses based on whether a team is favored in that game, and second, by adding the percentages to obtain a cumulative projection, or rather the record a team is most likely to finish at. Odds of going undefeated are computed by multiplying the odds of winning each game.

Florida remaining schedule & forecast
10/24	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	99.9%	W
10/31	Sat	N	*Georgia	88.1%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	99.9%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*South Carolina	95.2%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	Florida International	99.9%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	Florida State	88.9%	W
12/5	Sat	vs.	Alabama?	47.6%	L
Favored: 12-1   Projected: 12-1
Odds of going undefeated:12-0: 74.5%, 13-0: 35.5%

Florida Gators (6-0; BCS rank: #1)

The Gators have six games left, seven with the SEC title game. But three of these games are judged foregone conclusions by the method described above. Simply put, neither Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, nor FIU has played a game that rates better than Florida's worst effort, and thus is given only a token chance to pull off the upset.

Surprisingly, Georgia in Jacksonville and FSU at home are judged to be bigger threats to the Gators than South Carolina on the road, even though the latter ranks higher in the power rating. Though the Gamecocks' average game rating is better than the other teams', they haven't had as many outings that approach Florida's quality. 

Florida is the overwhelming favorite in all these, and has nearly a 3 in 4 chance of winning them all. But assuming they meet Alabama in the SEC title game cuts their odds by more than half. Alabama wins the neutral-field matchup slightly more often than not, leaving the Gators with a 35.5% chance of going 13-0. Since they're the underdog in the last game they're favored to finish 12-1, and the cumulative projection also yields a 12-1 record (12.198 total wins).

Basically this means what everyone already knows: Florida's chances come down to the SEC title game. Most people already figured that the SEC title game was about a 50/50 proposition; but even with Florida's dominant odds, there's about a 25% chance that they lose before it.

Alabama remaining schedule & forecast
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	85.7%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Louisiana State	92.9%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	98.0%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	Tennessee-Chattanooga	99.9%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*Auburn	87.8%	W
12/5	Sat	N	Florida?	52.4%	W
Favored: 13-0   Projected: 12-1
Odds of going undefeated: 12-0: 68.5%, 13-0 35.9%

Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0; BCS rank: #2)

You might think Alabama is better off than Florida; after all, they have seven games out of the way instead of six. But the Tide's five remaining games are tougher than Florida's six, with only one being a "gimme." The home game vs. Tennessee (who ranks high in score-margin power ratings despite a 3-3 record) and the road trip to Auburn are Alabama's most likely stumbling blocks. LSU at home is judged a lesser threat and Mississippi State very small.

All told, those five games reduce Alabama's odds of going undefeated to 68.5%, somewhat lower than Florida's odds. But when the SEC title game—where the Tide are slight favorites—is factored in, their odds of going 13-0 end up just a touch better. With the "W" in the right-hand column, Alabama is favored to be 13-0, while still having a cumulative projection of 12-1 (12.168 wins, slightly lower again than the Gators).

So while Florida has better odds of making it to the SEC title game undefeated, the overall edge goes to Alabama, making them the favorite to advance to the BCS title game. Of course it all comes down to the head-to-head matchup; these two teams will be considered together when we compare all the teams' chances, since they are inextricably linked by the SEC title game showdown.

Texas remaining schedule & forecast
10/24	Sat	@	*Missouri	99.9%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Oklahoma State	94.4%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	Central Florida	99.9%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Baylor	99.9%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Kansas	97.2%	W
11/26	Thu	@	*Texas A&M	97.2%	W
12/5	Sat	vs.	Nebraska?	63.9%	W
Favored: 13-0   Projected: 13-0
Odds of going undefeated: 12-0: 89.2%: 13-0: 57%

Texas Longhorns (6-0; BCS rank: #3)

Texas has the luxury of being a #3 team that doesn't have to worry about being locked out by #1 and #2. They are not this year's Auburn 2004. Not only that, but for a major conference team facing several ranked opponents, they are forecast to have a very easy time of things, and they play the Big Twelve title game in their own backyard.

Three teams don't even register a real chance to beat the Longhorns. UCF at home is understandable; Baylor on the road seems a little odd, but Missouri in Columbia? The Tigers are good this year, but apparently not a single game they've played ranks with Texas' worst effort. Despite all the complaining about Texas, their end results have been stellar—at least according to the score-margin algorithms.

I, for one, see the Missouri game as a trap coming off the Oklahoma win, but let's move on to game #2: Oklahoma State. 94.4% ? Against the highly-rated Cowboys? Well, the Cowboys aren't so highly-rated when score margins are used. Note the difference in the Success and Strength power ratings: Oklahoma State is 17th in the former but just 60th—and average I-A team—in the latter. The same pattern exists between Sagarin's ELO and Predictor. The BCS computers rank Oklahoma State high precisely because they can't use score margin.

But even Kansas is given a tiny chance of beating the Longhorns. Despite their record, few of their games have been that dominant, though their average isn't bad. They have no more chance on the road than Texas A&M does at home.

Things change, however, when we pair them up with our projected North division winner, Nebraska. The Cornhuskers have had several great performances, enough to put a major dent in Texas' odds even when the game is played in Arlington. So while Texas has an amazing 89.2% chance of winning out and going 12-0, if they play Nebraska in the Big Twelve title game their odds of going 13-0 fall to 57%.

This still means that Texas is favored and projected to go 13-0 (barely on the latter, with 12.53 cumulative wins) and that means an appearance in the BCS national championship game. How do they do? According to the same system, they lose to Alabama 55% of the time...yet they beat Florida 58% of the time! The three teams are barely separated at the top of the ratings, but individual game performance variations yield different results.

Boise State remaining schedule & forecast
10/24	Sat	@	*Hawaii	97.2%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*San Jose State	99.9%	W
11/6	Fri	@	*Louisiana Tech	91.7%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Idaho	95.2%	W
11/20	Fri	@	*Utah State	94.4%	W
11/27	Fri	vs.	*Nevada	91.7%	W
12/5	Sat	vs.	*New Mexico State	99.9%	W
Favored: 13-0   Projected: 13-0
Odds of going undefeated: 73.5%

Boise State Broncos (6-0; BCS rank: #4)

The Broncos won't have to play a conference championship game, but they do have seven games left on their 13-game slate. Lucky for them that all of these are against fairly soft competition, giving them the best chance of any team to go unbeaten.

Only the trip to Louisiana Tech and the home contest against Nevada—often a close game—yield any real chance of an upset. If they played Idaho on the road there might be trouble, but the Vandals probably won't have a dream season where they beat Boise State on the blue turf. In the end they're favored in every game, of course, and the cumulative projection yields an amazing 12.70 wins, with a nearly 3 in 4 chance of going undefeated. This is roughly equal to Florida's chance of going 12-0. It also implies that Boise State will either go to a BCS bowl game or be left out as an undefeated team, like last year. It's not a done deal that TCU would pass them in the BCS standings, though; a lot depends on how Oregon fares. If the Ducks beat USC and finish 11-1, a 13-0 Boise State would likely stay ahead of an unbeated TCU, and maybe have a shot at the national title game.

To be safe, Bronco fans had better hope for a TCU loss. Otherwise it's a crapshoot which team is selected, though both would be deserving.

Cincinnati remaining schedule & forecast
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Louisville	99.9%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Syracuse	99.9%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Connecticut	91.7%	W
11/13	Fri	vs.	*West Virginia	94.4%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	Illinois	99.9%	W
12/5	Sat	@	*Pittsburgh	73.8%	W
Favored: 12-0   Projected: 12-0
Odds of going undefeated: 63.9%

Cincinnati Bearcats (6-0; BCS rank: #5)

Cincy's next two games are among the friendliest games you could ask for, Louisville at home and Syracuse on the road. The three home games that follow are all very winnable too, with UConn offering the most resistance. Illinois, once thought to be perhaps the toughest game of the year, looks like an absolute gift as the Illini struggle.

But the last game is a real test: on the road at Pitt. The Bearcats are still heavily favored but that one game reduces the overall odds (from the current vantage point) by quite a bit, from 86.6% to 63.9%.

Still, this means that the most likely outcome is an undefeated season. The cumulative projection reflects this, with 11.59 wins the most likely amount. Unlike Boise State, Cincinnati probably would advance to the national title game—if there is an opening. The undefeated teams are really racking up!

Iowa remaining schedule & forecast
10/24	Sat	@	*Michigan State	67.3%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Indiana	93.9%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Northwestern	93.9%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Ohio State	44.9%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Minnesota	87.8%	W
Favored: 11-1   Projected: 11-1
Odds of going undefeated: 23.4%

Iowa Hawkeyes (7-0; BCS rank: #6)

Iowa is the only team that is 7-0 and plays a strictly 12-game schedule, no conference title game or 13th game to be seen. Yet in the end they are by far the longshot in the group to go undefeated. They're also the only team to be the underdog in any individual game (not counting the loser of Florida-Alabama).

Just next week the Hawkeyes face a pretty hefty challenge at Michigan State, with a 1 in 3 chance of seeing their undefeated record fall by the wayside. The next two home games are relatively safe, but then they travel to Ohio State. The combination of a strong opponent and the road game makes the Hawkeyes a slight underdog, leading to a 11-1 expected record and a similar cumulative projection. When all is said and done, Iowa has slightly less than a 1 in 4 chance of finishing 12-0.

It's not hard to see why when you look at their individual games. Despite their lofty computer ranking—earned because score margin isn't used, and Iowa has beaten some strong teams—the Hawks have the lowest Strength rating of all the undefeated teams. In the game pair-comparison system, Iowa's 1-point win over Northern Iowa and their 3-point win over Arkansas State hurt them a lot; these low-rating games become losses against most teams. Think of it this way: if the Iowa that beat Arkansas State 24-21 shows up to play, who would you favor? Conversely, they could beat just about anyone if the team that beat Penn State in Happy Valley shows up, but the cumulative odds of losing a game work against the Hawkeyes' chances.

TCU remaining schedule & forecast
10/24	Sat	@	*BYU	59.5%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*UNLV	99.9%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*San Diego State	99.9%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Utah	94.4%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Wyoming	99.9%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	*New Mexico	99.9%	W
Favored: 12-0   Projected: 12-0
Odds of going undefeated: 56.2%

TCU Horned Frogs (6-0; BCS rank: #8)

The Frogs season hangs on the next game at BYU. No other team—not even Utah—has a very good chance of beating them. Four of their foes should just give up in advance.

But BYU, by virtue of a few strong games—like the win over Oklahoma—could definitely derail TCU's dream season. The Frogs are still about a 60% favorite, but that's not far from 50/50.

The good news is, get past that and they're basically home free. Their overall odds of going 12-0 only fall to 56.2% when the other five games are factored in. Favored in all games, they are likely to go 12-0, and if they beat BYU they will be by far the most likely of any team to go unblemished.

What it will mean for them is unknown. They're already behind a 1-loss team, and far from the top of the list. It's very unlikely they could be in the BCS title game under any circumstances. They might—or might not—pass an undefeated Boise State team to claim a BCS berth. Like Boise, they have to hope their counterpart loses a game.

Overall Thoughts: How Many Teams Will Be Undefeated?

From zero teams in 2003 to five teams in 2004, there's quite a range of possibilities each season. This year seems to have a lot of potential for multiple teams to accomplish the feat, since only two of them play each other.

Factored through, there is about a 1.2% chance that six teams go undefeated. Six! And only a 0.4% of there being no undefeated teams before the bowl season. But the most likely number is three teams, with four also a high probability. Which teams will do it? Here they are, ranked in order (with Florida and Alabama conjoined):

1. Boise State: 73.5%
2. Florida or Alabama: 71.4%
3. Cincinnati: 63.9%
4. Texas: 57.0%
5. TCU: 56.2%
6. Iowa: 23.4%

Although Cincinnati is more likely than Texas to be unbeaten, they would have to be unbeaten while Texas has a loss, so the Longhorns are the probable opponent of the Florida-Alabama winner. But if Boise State, the SEC winner, and Cincinnati are the only three unblemished teams, the Bearcats would get their shot. As stated before Texas wins the hypothetical matchup with Florida but loses to Alabama; the Bearcats lose to both Florida (61% of the time) and the Tide (69%). If Florida and Alabama both slip at some point and Texas faces the Bearcats, Texas wins 2/3 of the time.

The projections make a few general predictions:

• that the SEC winner will be undefeated and face an undefeated Texas (or possibly Cincinnati) in the title game. If neither is undefeated then 1-loss teams become a factor;
• Boise State is very likely to go to another BCS bowl this year, as they are more likely than TCU to finish undefeated and could stay ahead in the polls even if both teams go unbeaten; the odds will change a lot after the TCU-BYU game, however;
• Iowa is very likely to lose a game somewhere along the way and is the only team expected to lose a given game on their schedule;
• the odds are very good for multiple undefeated teams this year, with three total being expected and five teams having a > 50% chance at this point.

AP Poll not free of inconsistencies, either

Dan Wetzel pointed out some ridiculous rankings courtesy of the USA/Coaches and Harris polls: namely, that 4-0 Iowa (#17, #14) is ranked lower than 3-1 Penn State (#13, #12) after beating them 21-10 in Happy Valley; and that Oregon (#25, #23) remains lower than Cal (#18, #21) despite crushing them 42-3 just days ago.

Those are pretty bad examples of inconsistencies in the polls. Teams with the same record, where team A has beaten Team B, should see Team A ranked higher in almost any conceivable case. If Team A has a better record, it's inexcusable (as in Iowa-Penn State) and if Team A has the same record and obliterated Team B, it's also inexcusable (as in Oregon's case).

These inconsistencies tend to resolve themselves eventually, either by the pollsters gradually correcting them or the teams themselves losing to make the problem moot. But the examples above are particularly egregious, and Wetzel rightly points out that the AP poll—not part of the BCS—does a better job than its BCS counterparts.

Of course, Wetzel is an anti-BCS, pro-playoff cheerleader, so he takes particular joy in pointing out the shortcomings of the system. But is the poll conducted his peers really that much better? Though they got Iowa-Penn State and Oregon-Cal right, here are some of the other problems I see in the most recent AP poll:

• #7 USC (3-1) lost 16-13 at unranked Washington (2-2) - This isn't a classic inconsistency as defined above; Washington has a worse record so they can be ranked lower. The trouble is that this early in the poll, a top ten team has a loss to an unranked foe. There are only two other teams in the poll with a loss to an unranked team. This is a case where voters look ahead and see a better future for the Trojans than they've encountered so far—and also a case where the poll got "trapped" because Ohio State was near the top ten, and they didn't want to move USC lower. Finally, it's a case of inertia and bias. USC has been in the top ten so long it's hard to believe they should ever fall out.
• #8 Oklahoma (2-1) lost 14-13 at home (essentially) to #20 BYU (3-1) - This result *is* a classic inconsistency, and a pretty big one at 12 slots. The reasons for this ranking include bias (Oklahoma is a major BCS program, BYU is in the Mountain West), mitigation of BYU's win (Bradford got hurt), dismissal of the result due to close score, and most of all, counting more recent results (BYU's loss to FSU) as more important. The latter comes from simply moving teams up and down the rungs week to week, as pollsters in all the polls do.
• #21 Mississippi (2-1) lost 16-10 to unranked South Carolina (3-1) - Voters are assuming that the Gamecocks' win is a fluke, and that the teams will re-order themselves soon enough. That must be what they were assuming a few weeks ago when undefeated Houston was behind victim Oklahoma State. Now that Houston beat Texas Tech, they've grudgingly put the Cougars ahead of the Cowboys. But South Carolina doesn't get the benefit of the doubt, despite only losing to #18 Georgia 41-37.
• #20 BYU (3-1) lost to FSU; unranked South Florida (4-0) beat FSU - This is getting into the transitive property, which often fails in predicting future winners but should be looked at in certain cases when ranking teams—the main case being when an undefeated team is involved. If BYU can lose to FSU 52-38 at home, and undefeated USF can beat FSU 17-7 on the road, shouldn't South Florida be ranked ahead of the Cougars? I would think so. They aren't, though, since USF wasn't in the poll last week and pollsters are reluctant to put them in after Matt Grothe was lost for the season, thinking they won't last; BYU's win over Oklahoma keeps them in the poll; and nobody likes the Big East this year.

These kinds of inconsistencies are exactly the type of thing I do my best to avoid when making the Sportsratings subjective Top 25. The order of teams may vary quite a bit from what you see in the other polls (especially early on), but they won't violate the principles I've noted above, unless it's basically unavoidable (Team A beats Team B beats Team C beats Team A, for example).

Ultimately this all doesn't matter too much since the polls tend to reorganize pretty well by the time bowl games are picked, but fans are annoyed when they beat a team only to see that team still ranked ahead of them if the records are comparable. Everyone has biases, and only through the use of some sound principles can we be sure we aren't favoring certain teams for the wrong reason—usually laziness.

Projected AP Poll Week 2 (9/13)

Week Two of this season's experiment: the Projected AP Top 25. Using an algorithm that may be modified as the season commences, we project the AP Poll before it comes out each week. And, we'll also keep a "running" AP projection that uses the continuous results rather than starting from the previous week's poll.

Here is this week's projection, starting from last week's actual poll. The "points" column shows the results of these manipulations; lower is better.

Projected AP Top 25 for September 13, 2009
lw	#	Team	record	pts	weekend results
1	1.	Florida	2-0	-0.43	w Troy 56-6
2	2.	Texas	2-0	1.11	w @Wyoming 41-10
3	3.	USC	2-0	1.82	w @#8 Ohio St. 18-15
5	4.	Alabama	2-0	3.26	w Florida Intl 40-14
6	5.	Mississippi	1-0	5.50	did not play
7	6.	Penn State	2-0	6.40	w Syracuse 28-7
9	7.	BYU	2-0	7.54	w @Tulane 54-3
10	8.	California	2-0	9.01	w E Wash 59-7
8	9.	Ohio State	1-1	9.65	L #3 USC 18-15
11	10.	LSU	2-0	10.60	w Vanderbilt 23-9
12	11.	Boise State	2-0	10.63	w Miami OH 48-0
13	12.	Oklahoma	1-1	11.78	w Idaho St 64-0
14	13.	Virg. Tech	1-1	12.90	w Marshall 52-10
--	14.	Houston	2-0	14.71	w @#5 OK State 45-35
15	15.	Georgia Tech	2-0	14.91	w Clemson 30-27
16	16.	TCU	1-0	15.54	w @Virginia 30-14
17	17.	Utah	2-0	16.71	w @ San Jose St. 24-14
19	18.	UNC	2-0	18.94	w @UConn 12-10
5	19.	Oklahoma St.	1-1	19.08	L Houston 45-35
20	20.	Miami FL	1-0	19.50	did not play
21	21.	Georgia	1-1	20.90	w South Carolina 41-37
22	22.	Nebraska	2-0	21.17	w Arkansas St. 38-9
--	23.	Michigan	2-0	21.39	w #18 Notre Dame 38-34
23	24.	Cincinnati	2-0	21.59	w SE Missouri 70-3
24	25.	Kansas	2-0	23.23	w @UTEP 34-7
		Out:
25	--	Missouri	2-0	24.80	w Bowling Green 27-20
18	--	Notre Dame	1-1	31.35	L @Michigan 38-34

Ohio State will probably only fall one spot for losing a close game to USC; the other question is whether BYU will jump Penn State due to the Lions' bland win over lowly Syracuse combined with BYU's dominant victory. I'd say there's a good chance since Penn State won't fall any spots either way.

Likewise Boise State will probably pass LSU and land in the #10 spot; in this projection they're a sliver away from doing so. Houston probably comes in a little high here, but none of the next three teams were electrifying this weekend. I'd guess they come in at 16, still ahead of Utah but probably behind TCU. 

Oklahoma State probably will fall only to #18. North Carolina only won by 2 points and it keeps the Cowboys three spots ahead of Georgia, whom they beat just last week.

Cincinnati won by 67 points so I don't think they'll be falling any spots. Michigan will enter at #24 instead, pushing Kansas down a notch and Missouri (who won by just 7 over Bowling Green) out of the poll. There isn't room for Notre Dame to stay in, either.

Actual Results:
Surprisingly, Penn State moved into a tie at #5 with Mississippi. Ohio State fell three spots to #11, and Boise State did not surpass LSU after all so the projection was right on that one—it was very close, too (6 points separate them in the AP poll). Oklahoma State dropped only to #16 while Houston came in at #21, leaving a clear discrepancy in the poll.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati jumped 6 spots to #17, giving them a lot of credit for blowing out a I-AA team. Utah dropped a spot and Georgia dropped two, while Nebraska rose 3 spots and Kansas 2. North Carolina plunged five spots for their narrow road win, and Michigan debuted at #25.

I'm going to figure out the cumulative poll (starting with last week's projected results) and post it soon.

Despite big moves, Week One AP Top 25 not a reboot

Trevor Matich of ESPN says he's glad the voters 'tore up' the pre-season AP Top 25 and made an entirely new ranking, instead of just "moving teams up and down as they win and lose."

Well I hate to tell you, Trevor, but using a simple mathematical formula based only on the score of the game and last week's rankings, you could have predicted every move in the poll within a few spots. There was nothing out of the ordinary in the rankings this week in a historical sense, except perhaps the voters are showing more of a willingness to drop teams that have close calls yet still win.

Matich's main example is that the voters moved BYU up to #9. In yesterday's projection, I had BYU at #10. I doubted the voters would put them that high, though, thinking there would be some mitigation for the fact that Sam Bradford of Oklahoma was lost in the first half. Instead, the voters put the Cougars at #9 and kept Boise State out of the top ten. They also dropped Oklahoma only to #13 instead of #14. Here's a look at how the first projection fared:

Left columns: previous rank & projected rank; actual rank to the right

1   1. Florida        1
2   2. Texas          2
4   3. USC            3
5   4. Alabama        4
6   5. Ohio St.       8 (down 3)
9   6. Oklahoma St.   5 (up 1)
8   7. Mississippi    6 (up 1)
9   8. Penn St.       7 (up 1)
14  9. Boise St.     12 (down 3)
20 10. BYU            9 (up 1)
11 11. LSU           11
12 12. California    10 (up 2)
7  13. Virginia Tech 14 (down 1)
3  14. Oklahoma      13 (up 1)
15 15. Georgia Tech  15
17 16. TCU           16
19 17. Utah          17
13 18. Georgia       21 (down 3)
21 19. UNC           19
   20. Miami FL      20
23 21. Notre Dame    18 (up 3)
22 22. Iowa          -- (down 4+)
24 23. Nebraska      22 (up 1)
25 24. Kansas        24
16 25. Oregon        -- (down 1+)
18 --  FSU           --

As you can see, with some slight modification we can match the real poll pretty easily. Boise State's small move—up 2 spots that they might have jumped even had they not defeated a top 25 team—is unusual. Any other team that beat the #16 team would have landed in the top 10. Either pollsters were left with a bad taste after the Oregon game and ensuing fisticuffs, or the Bronco win wasn't fresh in their minds because five days had passed since the Thursday contest, or—most likely—the voters don't want to move Boise up too fast because their schedule henceforth is very easy. Put them in the top ten now and they might rise to #3 or #2 by the end of the year, and vie for the BCS title game. Keep them lower and they'll have to prove it by winning big. Or so the theory goes.

Other than that what stands out is how much Ohio State, Iowa, and to a lesser extent LSU were punished for not winning convincingly. Or rather, for almost losing. The Buckeyes not only didn't move up to #5, nor did they do what I expected, which was remain #6 or fall to #7, but they tumbled three spots! Voters are getting hardcore about near losses! There's also something else in play: The Ohio State factor. After being burned by the team losing big games, voters seem to be taking this opportunity to knock the Buckeyes down a few pegs at the first sign of weakness. There's also a bit of anticipation for next week's USC game. It's as if the sportswriters have anticipated the drop that they're ready to give after a loss to the Trojans...

LSU held at 11 as I (but not the formula) expected. I figured Cal would jump to 10 rather than hold at #12. But I'm a bit surprised that Oklahoma and Virginia Tech finished in that order. They're only 1 spot off, each, but I thought the voters might look at Oklahoma in their Bradford-less state and dock them several more spots. Instead it looks like they've rewarded BYU handsomely rather than penalized the Sooners.

Georgia fell three more spots than the formula thought, and Notre Dame rose three more places. The Irish tend to move up a lot when they play well, let's face it. Jumping North Carolina was a direct comparison in traditions: one school has football tradition, the other has hoards of basketball tradition.

Iowa dropped out completely, a result that wasn't entirely unforeseen but I would have expected the Hawkeyes to remain in at #25; instead they fell way out, all the way to #35. The formula kicked FSU out, too, but I thought they should have stayed in; they fell to #32. The pollsters are not going to be kicked around this year!

With a few modifications—i.e. more penalty for winning a close game against an unranked opponent—the results could have been even closer, with Ohio State, LSU, and Iowa perhaps matching the actual results. The other differences I can live with, since there isn't any overarching difference in what was predicted, or any logical heuristic that the voters used that can be matched.

Projected AP poll - college football week one 2009

This is Week One of this season's experiment: the Projected AP Top 25. Using an algorithm that may be modified as the season commences, we project the AP Poll before it comes out each week. And, we'll also keep a "running" AP projection that uses the continuous results rather than starting from the previous week's poll. This week of course those are one and the same.

The basic formula has a Win element and a Loss element; for Losses, teams fall in a linear fashion modified by their record. For the first week there is no modifier as all teams start with no wins to cushion the blow. Loss margin is added by dividing by 7, reflecting the fact that harsh losses are penalized a lot by AP voters.

For wins, margin of victory is divided by 35, that is, it's 1/5 as relevant as it is for losing. Some papers have investigated the issue and found there is no bonus for margin of victory in the AP poll, though clearly it happens in certain cases. So I've gone with a large divisor that makes it difficult for teams to leap other teams that haven't lost. The basic modifier for winning is multiplicative, depending on the rank of the defeated. For example, beating the #1 will multiply a team's ranking by 0.5, thus launching a low-ranked team up many spots, and a high-ranked team at least a few. But all advancement is mitigated by dividing by the number of losses a team has (plus one of course) so that teams with more losses advance more slowly.

The "points" column shows the results of these manipulations; lower is better.

Anyway, without further ado, tomorrow's AP poll, and where I think it will be wrong:

Projected AP Top 25 for September 8, 2009
lw	#	Team	record	pts	weekend results
1	1.	Florida	1-0	-0.19	w Charleston S. 62-3
2	2.	Texas	1-0	0.89	w ULM 59-20
4	3.	USC	1-0	2.48	w San Jose St. 56-3
5	4.	Alabama	1-0	2.79	w N #7 Virg. Tech 34-24
6	5.	Ohio State	1-0	5.88	w Navy 31-27
9	6.	OK State	1-0	6.54	w #13 Georgia 24-10
8	7.	Mississippi	1-0	7.11	w Memphis 45-14
9	8.	Penn State	1-0	8.81	w Akron 31-7
14	9.	Boise State	1-0	10.72	w #16 Oregon 19-8
20	10.	BYU	1-0	10.74	w @#3 Oklahoma 14-13
11	11.	LSU	1-0	10.77	w @Washington 31-23
12	12.	California	1-0	10.88	w Maryland 52-13
7	13.	Virg. Tech	0-1	10.93	L N Alabama 34-24
3	14.	Oklahoma	0-1	13.14	L #20 BYU 14-13
15	15.	Georgia Tech	1-0	14.93	w Jacksonville St. 37-17
16	16.	TCU	0-0	16.50	did not play
19	17.	Utah	1-0	18.48	w Utah State 36-17
13	18.	Georgia	0-1	19.75	L @#9 OK St. 24-10
21	19.	UNC	1-0	20.53	w Citadel 40-6
NR	20.	Miami FL	1-0	21.75	w @#18 FSU 38-34
23	21.	Notre Dame	1-0	22.00	w Nevada 35-0
22	22.	Iowa	1-0	22.47	w Northern Iowa 17-16
24	23.	Nebraska	1-0	22.68	w Florida Atlantic 49-3
25	24.	Kansas	1-0	24.18	w N. Colorado 49-3
16	25.	Oregon	0-1	24.57	L @#14 Boise St. 19-8
		Out:
18	--	Florida State	0-1	26.07	L Miami FL 38-34

The top four are pretty certain, as USC isn't going to get passed by Alabama. 5-7 are up in the air; I think Ole Miss or Oklahoma State will be #5, and Ohio State will be 6th or even 7th. Voters won't like the Buckeyes' performance against Navy.

Penn State will be #8, then from 9 to 12 there is a log-jam that could go many ways. I think Boise State will be #9 but BYU won't get the full benefit from their Oklahoma win as Bradford's injury will make voters discount it slightly; Cal will probably jump to #10, and LSU and BYU will fight for #11 after LSU's sluggish performance against Washington (winless last year). 

Virginia Tech will fall to #13 but Oklahoma is questionable; Bradford's injury and the prospects for the team going forward might cause voters to drop them farther than #14, but Georgia Tech wasn't great and TCU didn't play. Georgia might fall to 19 but UNC played The Citadel—it's hard to know how voters will react to I-AA teams but normally they are not impressed.

Miami won't debut ahead of Notre Dame but they'll be ahead of Iowa for sure. The Hawkeyes could find themselves lower than 22 or even out of the poll; it depends on whether the voters care that UNI is a great FCS team. That means Nebraska and Kansas could have another spot each.

Finally, I'm betting that Oregon falls out of the poll. Their performance on offense was so dismal and they've lost their leading rusher for the year; plus no one will feel bad about pushing the Ducks out of the poll after the Blount debacle. Florida State looked good and barely lost to Miami so they'll stay in at #25, or #24 if Iowa falls below them. If the Hawkeyes fall out, Missouri or possibly Cincinnati (the latter may be fresher in memory) could join the top 25.

In my system new teams only join when they beat a top 25 team, or when the last team on the list scores higher than 26 points; then a team is selected from those with the best record.

As I've noted there are clearly some areas that the projection will get wrong (if it's right and I'm wrong on those points I'll be surprised). The devil is in the details of the poll—when do teams that win, but have a subpar game, get passed? It's hard to quantify these moments based on the numbers. That's why the Continuous Projection will be interesting, to see how these small glitches either become larger or get lost in the shuffle as the season goes by.

Final AP top 25 has one big mistake; final USA-Today/coaches poll has a few

Here is the final AP top 25 for the 2008 season, which is pretty good overall. But they made one obvious mistake.

1. Florida (13-1)
2. Utah (13-0)
3. USC (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
5. Oklahoma (12-2)
6. Alabama (12-2)
7. TCU (11-2)
8. Penn State (11-2)
9. Ohio State (10-3)
10. Oregon (10-3)
11. Boise State (12-1)
12. Texas Tech (12-2)
13. Georgia (10-3)
14. Mississippi (9-4)
15. Virginia Tech (10-4)
16. Oklahoma State (9-4)
17. Cincinnati (11-3)
18. Oregon State (9-4)
19. Missouri (10-4)
20. Iowa (9-4)
21. Florida State (9-4)
22. Georgia Tech (9-4)
23. West Virginia (9-4)
24. Michigan State (9-4)
25. BYU (10-3)

Boise State finished 12-1 on a 1-point loss to #7 TCU. Oregon lost three games, including a loss at home to the Broncos.

Record isn't everything, so a 3-loss team can easily be ahead of a 1-loss team. But they shouldn't be ahead of a 1-loss team that they, themselves, lost to at home. Clearly this is an example of the sportswriters not doing their research. They obviously considered the teams to be relatively close in terms of quality, so why not give the Broncos the top ten spot they deserve? Actually I have both teams in the top ten, with Ohio State the odd man out.

A few minor nitpicks: #24 Michigan State beat #20 Iowa this year, and #22 Georgia Tech beat #21 Florida State, but those games were close and the higher-ranked teams won their bowl games, which usually is considered important for the final poll.

The coaches did the same thing with Oregon and Boise State, but they apparently though the Ducks were four spots better than the Broncos, so it wasn't close for them:

1. Florida (13-1)
2. USC (12-1)
3. Texas (12-1)
4. Utah (13-0)
5. Oklahoma (12-2)
6. Alabama (12-2)
7. TCU (11-2)
8. Penn State (11-2)
9. Oregon (10-3)
10. Georgia (10-3)
11. Ohio State (10-3)
12. Texas Tech (12-2)
13. Boise State (12-1)
14. Virginia Tech (10-4)
15. Mississippi (9-4)
16. Missouri (10-4)
17. Cincinnati (11-3)
18. Oklahoma State (9-4)
19. Oregon State (9-4)
20. Iowa (9-4)
21. BYU (10-3)
22. Georgia Tech (9-4)
23. Florida State (9-4)
24. Michigan State (9-4)
25. California (9-4)

In addition, the coaches mis-ranked Missouri ahead of Oklahoma State. The Cowboys beat the Tigers 28-23, and lost only to four teams ranked in the top twelve. Missouri, meanwhile, lost to top fivers Texas and Oklahoma, but also to Oklahoma State and unranked Kansas. How does that put Missouri on top after their lackluster overtime win over Northwestern?

Another puzzler is Michigan State one spot ahead of California. Cal beat the Spartans 38-31. Sure, it was in California, and the first game of the season. But if so many coaches obviously put them close, why not get the order right? They both have 9-4 records. Cal beat #24 Michigan State and #9 Oregon, while the Spartans beat just #20 Iowa. Michigan State's other losses (Ohio State, Penn State, Georgia) were to better teams than Cal's losses to Arizona and Maryland (the other two were USC and Oregon State), but the Spartans were beat 45-7 and 48-19 in two of those games. And using the general logic of final polls, the team that won its bowl game gets the benefit of the doubt, but not in this case.

Coaches poll is a JOKE

I haven't done my usual commentary about the polls this year, as it's the same thing over and over: bad logic and laziness in their rankings, especially the USA Today/Coaches poll. But this week is too much to ignore.

The USA-Today/Coaches top ten:

1. Alabama
2. Penn State
3. Texas Tech
4. Oklahoma
5. Florida
6. USC
7. Texas
8. Oklahoma State
9. Utah
10. Boise State

Texas falls all the way to #7 for losing on the road to an undefeated team on a last-second play? What are the coaches smoking? This same team has also beaten the #4 team on a neutral field, and the #8 team as well as their #13 team, Missouri. That's three wins over top 25 teams, two over top ten, one over a top five.

Yet Texas falls below the Oklahoma team they beat, and Florida and USC, both of whom have a loss to a non-top-25 team. One coach even has the illogic to vote Oklahoma #1. I can see giving the top spot to Florida—as one AP voter does—if you vote purely by which team you think is playing the best at this very moment, regardless of past results. I don't believe that's how the teams should be ranked, since results from the entire year have to be counted, but Florida is probably the most unstoppable team right now. Oklahoma is giving up far too many points to even be considered a "right at this moment" #1, and by any fair ranking rules they have to be below Texas.

The AP got things mostly right:

1. Alabama
2. Texas Tech
3. Penn State
4. Florida
5. Texas
6. Oklahoma
7. USC
8. Oklahoma State
9. Boise State
10. Utah

Note that Texas Tech is ahead of Penn State. I don't have a problem with Alabama at #1, but Penn State shouldn't be #2. If all three teams win out, Alabama and Texas Tech should play in the national championship game. Texas Tech just beat the unanimous #1 team, and they'll have to prove their worthiness over the next several weeks. Penn State has a win over Ohio State and no big challenges left, as well as one fewer game on their schedule than the others will have. I doubt either Alabama or Texas Tech will go 13-0, so the Lions have a very good chance of being in the national title game.

Florida is ahead of Texas, which I don't like, but again it's hard to ignore a 49-10 beating of Georgia. And the Gators will have to topple Alabama to win the SEC. The trouble will start if Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma, and then Texas wins out and finishes with one loss, while Florida does likewise. If Penn State is undefeated they'll be #1, while the #2 spot will be between Texas and Florida. Who deserves it more, a Big Twelve champ who beat Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Missouri twice, while losing only to Texas Tech? Or a Florida team who beat Georgia, LSU, and Alabama, while losing to borderline .500 team Mississippi?

Well at least they're still ahead of Oklahoma and USC. But the AP poll doesn't count toward the BCS, while the Coaches poll does. Sorry, Texas; likely the computers, which look at schedule strength highly and don't care if Florida won by 1 point or 39 points, will bail you out...

LA Times article ignorant about computer ratings

Here we go again. The annual article showing a complete lack of understanding about computer rating systems. It's not so much the ignorance that bothers me, but that the authors never even attempt to try to gain an understanding. They just push forth a few examples that make computer rankings look stupid or irrational, and then say "wow, can't possibly make heads or tails of that! Why even try?"

The examples in the article make complete sense to me, mostly because my two rating systems mirror the examples almost exactly. The author (Chris Dufresne) exhibits dismay that Jeff Sagarin's two systems can evaluate the same team differently. Here are his examples:

• USC: #1 but also #16
• Northwestern: #28 and #2
• Florida: #7 and #46

He doesn't even understand how Sagarin combines his ratings. The real numbers he should have cited are:

• USC: #1 (Predictor) and #16 (ELO)
• Northwestern: #35 and #2
• Florida: #2 and #46

Using my comparable ratings (Strength is similar to Predictor, and Success mirrors ELO somewhat):

• USC: #3 and #17
• Northwestern: #37 and #10
• Florida: #6 and #40

So while the differences in my ratings aren't quite as extreme, they're pretty close on the whole. So why the discrepancies between two methods of rating college football teams? There are many reasons.

One is that it's early in the season. With only four or five games to go by, any one game can have a big effect on a score-based system. Likewise, using winning and losing only, five games is a paltry amount to base a rating on. This is why I (and Mr. Sagarin) combine the two systems. When combined, the deficiencies of the two systems are lessened. USC ends up #3, Florida #8, and Northwestern #27 in my Overall ratings. In Sagarin's method, USC is #1, Florida is #7, and Northwestern #28.

Also, early ratings are sometimes handled differently until there are enough "connections" to make valid comparisons. Jeff Sagarin uses some weighing of last year's results until this year has enough data. At this point, according to his site, Predictor (the score-margin system) still is using some weight from last year, while the ELO portion does not. This is naturally going to lead to greater discrepancy between the two.

For the SportsRatings power rating, there is never any use of last year's data. But early ratings are naturally weighed heavier with the results of Strength rather than Success. The Success ratings build throughout the year as teams win games. It's difficult for a Win-Loss-only system to have good results until teams have played about 10 games; until then, the score-based system carries more weight. My motto is "you can't argue with Success" but only at the end of the season. Until then, some results, like Oregon State's upset of USC, can be at least somewhat written off as a fluke.

Dufresne does point out that USC's huge wins over Ohio State and Oregon count for a lot in a margin-based system. From there it doesn't take a lot for the ratings to make perfect sense; why should a 3-1 team by any higher than #16 anyway?

Florida's case is easier to understand. If you only knew that some "Team X" had defeated four teams that were each 2-3, and Team X had lost to another that was 3-3, wouldn't #46 seem like a possible ranking? But knowing that the score of the four wins were 56-10, 26-3, 30-6, and 38-7, and that the loss was by 1 point, you might think it reasonable that they be in the top ten. 

Just a little digging could help people understand the computer rankings, and it's an area that journalists have failed. There is so much coverage of every aspect of college football by the press—offenses, injuries, history, human-interest storylines—but the computer rankings are addresses with either pure ridicule and/or ignorance. There is no attempt to educate the fans on exactly what mechanisms they operate by. Why not? Sure, it may make for a longer, more in-depth article, but it has become a crucial area due to the BCS system. But all we get is "oh my God, look at what those computers did!"

Even for the financial meltdown in the stock market has articles that attempt to explain, step-by-step, just what happened in a technical sense. And that "system" is so complex than no one really understands how it works or where it is going since its scope is so huge. College football has a finite amount of games—it would be possible to show exactly what a computer is "thinking" every step of the way!

Sportswriters do a disservice to fans when they use the computer ratings only to take potshots at the BCS rather than to introduce fans to a very interesting nexus of sports and mathematics. The introduction of computer power ratings has clearly influenced sports and college football in particular. Spreads on games hew close to computer models these days. And pollsters, over the last ten years, have started to refer to power ratings when making their choices. In the early days of Sagarin's ratings being featured in USA Today, the difference between his ratings and the polls was huge. Then many of the teams he ranked high started to "upset" other teams. After years of this happening, you started to see these teams enter the top 25 earlier, and move up faster, than they did in the past.

Now, with spreads and the AP poll mirroring the computer rankings so much, any discrepancy is quickly noted. But does the AP poll make that much sense right now? #24 Pitt beat #19 South Florida who beat #16 Kansas; all teams have 1 loss. Michigan State is at #23 at 5-1, but the 4-1 Cal team that beat them isn't rated. There are justifiable reasons for these discrepancies perhaps. But the polls have another advantage: they are the aggregate of 70 different opinions. Combine 70 computer rankings and you wouldn't be able to pick one or two apart for having widely contrasting results.

The inconsistencies and biases that show up in the human polls are one reason I like computer power ratings. It's also why I base the SportsRatings Top 25—a non-computerized, subjective ranking—on a few basic principles so that teams are ranked in a fair manner. First and foremost, I try to explain why I put teams where I do, so that someone who takes issue with them at least knows where I'm coming from.

It's a lot easier just to mock a rating system than to try and understand it. But I think there is fan interest in knowing how these systems work, and journalists would be doing their job to go a step further in this direction.

USC loss shakes up national title picture, Heisman race, Rose Bowl?

Southern Cal's stunning 27-21 loss the Oregon State clearly puts the national title up for grabs. Now any team that goes undefeated—and many that have one loss—will be ahead of the Trojans in line.

Because they lost to Oregon State, who already had 2 losses, this will hurt USC a lot. But it's early in the year, which gives them a lot of time to come back; if the Beavers do well from this point forward, the loss won't look as bad; and USC won't fall any lower than Ohio State (currently #13 USA), so they have a built-in cushion. Ohio State fans can't be too happy about how this makes their squad look.

Still, many teams are rejoicing tonight as their national title hopes took a big leap. Either Oklahoma or Georgia, depending on how they do in their tough games, will take over at #1, and the Floridas, Missouris, and others from the SEC and Big Twelve now control their own destiny with USC out of the way. BCS-busters like BYU and Utah have more hope that an undefeated season might translate into the Big Game rather than "just" a BCS bowl berth.

Other Pac-10 teams should be celebrating too, because now even the Rose Bowl is up for grabs with USC in a 0-1 hole. Realistically, though, the Pac-10 is pretty bad this year, so USC is still the odds-on favorite to win the league. And if they win out and don't make the BCS title game, they'll play in the Rose Bowl...and if Ohio State wins the Big Ten? We'll see the rematch that no one wants to see, in nearly the same locale!

Another race impacted is the Heisman race. Mark Sanchez had quickly been elevated to the top of some people's Heisman lists. I've been a Sanchez promoter since last season when he showed great talent, but after the first two wins this year people were getting ahead of themselves. He still makes mistakes. I think he'll be a top contender next year, and he's not yet out of it this season, but he will lose a lot of momentum with this game.

AP Poll, Coaches Poll inconsistencies

The final AP and USA Today (coaches) polls are out. They didn't do too bad of a job during the year, but the final poll has a few things I don't think make sense.

rank, team (1sts), record, points, last week

1. LSU (60)        (12-2)     1620     2
2. Georgia (3)     (11-2)     1515     4
3. USC (1)         (11-2)     1500     6
4. Missouri        (12-2)     1347     7
5. Ohio State      (11-2)     1346     1
6. West Virginia   (11-2)     1342     11
7. Kansas (1)      (12-1)     1303     8
8. Oklahoma        (11-3)     1139     3
9. Virginia Tech   (11-3)     1096     5
10.Boston College  (11-3)      962     14

I don't have a problem with most of the top ten. It's a tough year to order the top ten teams. But within the top teams, I don't like Missouri being ahead of Oklahoma.

If head-to-head competition means anything, then a team that beats another team twice should be ranked ahead of it if the records are close. One loss difference shouldn't change that. Not even one team getting beat up while the other coasts in its bowl game. Missouri's not just ahead, either—they're four spots ahead in the AP poll.

10t Texas          (10-3)     962     17
12. Tennessee      (10-4)     904     16
13. Florida        ( 9-4)     685     9
14. Brigham Young  (11-2)     654     19
15. Auburn         ( 9-4)     648     22

Another big problem is Tennessee finishing ahead of Florida. They have the same record, and the Gators destroyed the Volunteers 59-20. That's a pasting you can't ignore. In the bowls, Tennessee beat Wisconsin, while Florida lost to Michigan, both in close games. How does this move Tennessee ahead of Florida? Four spots ahead in the coaches poll. Bad.

At least the coaches got it right and put Auburn ahead of Florida, whom they beat in Gainesville. This one isn't quite as big of a deal since it was a close game. But they won on the road; they should be ahead unless the voter has a really good reason, which I doubt. In most cases it was just laziness I'm sure.

16. Arizona State (10-3)     587     12
17. Cincinnati    (10-3)     566     20
18. Michigan       (9-4)     508     31
19. Hawaii        (12-1)     460     10
20. Illinois       (9-4)     443     13
21. Clemson        (9-4)     353     15
22. Texas Tech     (9-4)     308     26
23. Oregon         (9-4)     253     29
24. Wisconsin      (9-4)     202     18
25. Oregon State   (9-4)     110     29

Michigan made it back into the poll, but not ahead of Florida in either. They just beat Florida, in the state of Florida, and they have the same record, but they are 3-5 spots lower. The bowl game wasn't a dominant win, but why is logic going out the window when it comes to Florida? It's not that difficult: the Gators lost to Auburn and Michigan; they beat Tennessee.

It could be that voters kept Michigan lower due to the lingering aftereffects of the Appalachian State loss, which is understandable. But why then are the Wolverines ahead of Oregon, who beat them 39-7? That one seems obvious. Now admittedly Oregon is a hard team to rank. Their wins with Dennis Dixon are superb, their losses without him execrable. Then they demolished South Florida, causing a lot of trouble for the pollsters (and yours truly) in deciding how to order these teams. Oregon State should technically be ahead of Oregon as well, though that was an overtime game. The Michigan game was not, to say the least.

Finally, if Wisconsin stays in the poll Penn State should be in, too; they beat the Badgers 38-7 this season. The four 9-4 Big Ten teams all beat each other, but Wisconsin and Penn State were 1-2 against the other three, and the direct comparison is conclusive. If Penn State isn't deemed good enough to get in, Wisconsin should have fallen out. They lost, after all, there's no need for them to stay in. They could have kept Virginia in, instead. But Wisconsin was higher in the previous poll; these things happen.

Unheralded teams with only three losses

There are five teams in the country that have only three losses and are unanimously unranked among the AP, ESPN (coaches), and Harris polls, as well as the BCS standings. Are they deserving of top 25 consideration but left out because they don't play in prominent conferences? Or do they play such weak schedules that they haven't earned it yet? The answer is, a little of both. Here's a rundown of these teams, who they lost to, and any 3-loss and under teams they've beaten. (Losses to unranked teams are in red, ranked teams beaten are in green).

Central Florida (8-3) Losses: Texas 35-32, @USF 64-12, @E Carolina 52-28; Wins: Tulsa 44-23
Central Florida leads the Conference USA East division. The Knights attracted attention early in the year when they came within a field goal of beating Texas. Their second attempt at beating a top 25 team didn't go as well, but they can claim a solid win over 8-3 Tulsa. Their high-scoring offense includes Kevin Smith, who ran for 320 yards two weeks ago and is currently second in the nation.

Tulsa (8-3) Losses: @Oklahoma 62-21, @UTEP 48-47, @Central Florida 44-23; Wins: BYU 55-47
The Golden Hurricane belong to Conference USA and are looking for a rematch with Central Florida in the conference championship game. Tulsa has scored A LOT of points this year, but they tend to give up quite a few as well. They were handled pretty easily by Oklahoma, and lost a close upset to UTEP, but they also defeated BYU early in the season, which gives them the edge over Air Force.

Air Force (9-3) Losses: @BYU 31-6, @Navy 31-20, @New Mexico 34-31; W @Utah 20-12
The Falcons have lost only to BYU, Navy, and New Mexico, all of whom have solidly winning records. They beat Utah as well, allowing them to claim 2nd place in the Mountain West. Their regular season is over, so they'll have to wait for bowl announcements to see what their next opportunity is.

Troy (8-3) Losses: @Arkansas 46-26, @Florida 59-31, @Georgia 44-34
The "other" Trojans haven't beaten many good teams this year. In fact, apart from the teams they've lost to, they haven't really played many good teams. That's hard to do when you come from the Sun Belt. They did wallop Oklahoma State early in the year. And give them credit for playing three tough SEC squads—on the road, of course—and never saying die in any of the games. How many teams would average 30 points against the Razorbacks, Gators, and Bulldogs? Not many. I should note, too, that Troy defeated Louisiana Monroe 24-7, something Alabama couldn't accomplish.

Utah (8-3) Losses: @Oregon State 24-7, Air Force 20-12, @UNLV 27-0
The Utes are on a 7-game tear after losing three of their first four. Along the way they beat Louisville and New Mexico and recently defeated Wyoming 50-0. They haven't beaten a ranked team unless you still count their win over UCLA, and while two of their losses are reasonable, the shutout suffered against 1-9 UNLV pretty much puts them last in line of the 3-loss teams. Unless, of course, they can upset BYU this Saturday...

While all five play in non-BCS conferences and therefore play comparatively light schedules overall, as a group they don't have many embarassing losses, and most have a few solid wins. They haven't beaten any of the major powers, but they've been very consistent in terms of beating lesser opposition. In this, the "year of the upset," that's an impressive quality. At the end of the bowl season, each of these teams that manages to finish with only three losses will certainly deserve a spot in the top 25.

Tennessee vs. South Florida - who should be ranked higher?

This may seem like a random comparison, but I want to address South Florida (8-3), who is #23 in the BCS standings, but unranked in the major polls. I rank them #17 but do not include Tennessee (8-3), who is 19th in all the major polls and 18th in the BCS standings. Who deserves the higher ranking? Here's a breakdown of their major games:

Tenn. (8-3) Losses: @Cal 45-31, @ #12 Florida 59-20, @Alabama 41-17; Wins: #6 Georgia 35-14
USF (8-3) Losses: @Rutgers 30-27, @ #20 UConn 22-15, #24 Cincy 38-33; Wins: #4 West VA 21-13

From the above I think it's clear that South Florida has a better argument to be ranked. Three very close losses (a total of 15 points), two to ranked teams and the other to 7-4 Rutgers, complement their win over West Virginia—they are the only team to beat the Mountaineers—in addition to a 64-12 win over 8-3 Central Florida and a victory over Auburn.

On the other hand, Tennessee's losses to Cal and Alabama are looking worse each week, while Florida simply humiliated them. Their win over Georgia was impressive, but other than that they've beaten...Arkansas, and had a 1-point squeaker over Vanderbilt last week. The Volunteers will make my Top 25 for certain, of course, if they beat Kentucky and then LSU.

South Florida ranks 27th, 30th, and 26th in the AP, coaches', and Harris polls. The fact that their losses came three in a row might make pollsters blind to their overall season, but it also might have to do with the fact that they rose as high as #2 mid-season, and the voters feel burned. If that's the case, then how must they feel about another former #2, 6-5 California? Well, incidentally, Cal still got 6 votes in the AP and 3 in the Harris poll!

While I personally rank South Florida ahead of Tennessee and believe that it's correct, I don't expect the pollsters to follow suit. However, I would think that given the Bulls' résumé, there should be a place for them in the top 25. Of course that would mean a team would have to be pushed out to make room. Let's see, how about #25 Auburn, who has a worse record than South Florida, and lost to them early this season, at home?

Nah, that would make too much sense. :)

AP, Coaches and Harris poll critique, week 10

The latest USA Today (coaches) poll and Harris poll aren't too bad at the top. The first fifteen or so places are free from contradictory rankings. This is a good thing, since the top spots are why these polls are important—they heavily influence the BCS matchups, national championship included.

There are any number of ways you could order the top ten teams and defend your choices. The Coaches and Harris agree on the top nine—as does the AP—so there's little use in arguing if you think they have it wrong. The humans have spoken, and at this time, they see Ohio State vs. LSU as the title game, with Oregon, Oklahoma and Kansas waiting for a stumble.

The minor problems in these polls start in lower positions, with Florida and Auburn. Harris still has Florida ahead of Auburn, whom they lost to at home. It's only one spot, though, so they're getting closer to fixing this mistake which also afflicts the AP but the Coaches don't have in their poll. But this isn't the real problem.

The real problem is the treatment of South Florida. Now on a three-game skid, the Bulls have fallen out of the poll all the way from #2. The three games they lost were to Rutgers, Connecticut, and Cincinnati, none of whom are bad teams, and they were all close games. This is not a team getting beat by 40 or losing to a dog.

The kicker is that South Florida has wins over West Virginia—the only team to beat the Mountaineers—and Auburn. These two solid wins, coupled with three very close losses to good teams should put them in the top 25, and they should be ranked ahead of Auburn, whom they beat, and Florida, whose wins over Tennessee and Kentucky are less impressive than the Bulls' wins. It would be one thing if their three-game skid were a sign of decline, but they've been in every game, losing by only 3, 7, and 5 points. Having overrated the Bulls at #2, the pollsters feel burned and are now underrating them.

A few other minor problems exist. Alabama shows up in the low 20's in each poll, while the FSU team that beat them doesn't make the cut, even after beating Boston College last Saturday. Tennessee is also ahead of California on all three polls, though the Bears beat the Vols handily this year and both are 6-3. Finally, the coaches decided on Penn State at #25. Shouldn't Illinois, also 7-3, get the nod before the Nittany Lions that they beat?

All in all though, it's good to see the top ten free from these kind of inconsistencies. It matters less and less as you get toward the bottom of the poll, since these spots have little or no effect on the major bowl pairups. But to a team's fans, who want to see their team ranked, it makes all the difference.

AP poll critique - week 9

The AP voters, in aggregate, do a pretty commendable job this week of producing a poll that doesn't contain very many inconsistencies. Those that are present are minor and mostly defensible. In a crazy year like this one, that's quite an accomplishment, considering that in less confounding seasons the poll is often replete will illogic.

The top 17 spots are free from head-to-head competition irregularities. At #18, Florida is ahead of Auburn, who beat them in Gainesville, but they're only two points apart. South Florida is one spot behind Auburn, whom they beat in Auburn. It was an overtime game, but the Bulls have only two losses to Auburn's three, plus a win over West Virginia. Florida and South Florida should switch places to be fair.

South Carolina remains ahead of the Tennessee team that just beat them; however it was an overtime game at Tennessee, and again they're only one spot apart. If you believe a win is a win, no matter what the margin, the Volunteers should be ahead of the Gamecocks. The trouble is, following this rule would lead, as I explained concerning my top 25, to chaos where Cal would need to be ahead of Tennessee, and UCLA ahead of them, and Utah and Oregon State in a big mess of 3-loss teams. I don't expect anyone to try to sort that out, since I didn't want to, but if they're going to narrow it down to SC and Tennessee I think the Vols should be ahead.

Other than that, no big problems. The surprise was that Arizona State actually bumped West Virginia down a notch, when the Mountaineers dominated Rutgers 31-3. Oregon did the same to the idle Oklahoma Sooners. I guess it was Pac-10 appreciation week? If you look at each team's résumé, using the AP top 25, you get:

AP#4 Oregon (7-1) Lost to NR Cal 31-24; beat #13 USC 31-24; won at #15 Michigan, 39-7
AP#5 Oklahoma (7-1) Lost at NR Colorado 27-24; beat #9 Missouri 41-31; beat #19 Texas 28-21

So Oklahoma beat teams ranked similar to the ones Oregon did, and both have losses to unranked teams, though Cal just fell out of the top 25 and Colorado received no votes. Oregon lost at home while the Sooners lost on the road. These résumés are very similar, which is why I also have them ranked back-to-back (#7 and #8). The move by Oregon seems mostly based on Oklahoma having a bye week, and beating USC carries a lot of weight with voters. Oklahoma was solidly ahead last week, and now is solidly behind the Ducks. The same change occurred in the coaches' poll, though not the Harris poll, and could have BCS title game implications.

Now ASU vs. West Virginia:

AP#6 Arizona State (8-0) (no losses) beat NR Cal 31-20
AP#7 West Virginia (7-1) Lost at #20 South Florida 21-13; beat NR Rutgers 31-3

Neither team has beaten a current top 25 AP opponent, though on Saturday both beat squads that were in last week's poll. Cal was #18 last week while Rutgers was only #25, though West Virginia's win was much more convincing than ASU's typical come-from-behind number. Ultimately, though, I think the voters thought that the Sun Devils proved themselves with their win, and because they are undefeated, voted them higher. I did the same thing on my top 25, though I didn't have to move West Virginia down a spot: they remain #5 while ASU jumps to #4. I'm not sure I would have made West Virginia drop a position on a week where they had such an impressive victory.

From now on I'm probably going to focus on the coaches poll and the Harris poll, since they have a direct effect on the BCS system.

AP poll review - week 8

This week's AP poll inconsistencies (incidents where teams have the same record, and Team A beat Team B but is ranked lower):

• South Florida is below West Virginia. It looks like the voters wanted to penalize the Bulls for being so highly ranked last week, but six spots lower than a team they beat? They both have one loss, and South Florida has a win over Auburn as well. USF is now below USC, a team with no top 25 wins and a home loss to Stanford.

• Kentucky is ahead of South Carolina. Head-to-head competition almost carried the day on this one, but not quite. Losing to Vanderbilt is quite a bit worse than losing to Florida, so this is excusable.

• California is #18 while UCLA is unranked. Head-to-head competition didn't come close to carrying the day here. Given UCLA's losses to Utah and Notre Dame and Cal's wins over Tennessee and Oregon, it's understandable how someone would put Cal first, but the margin between the two is too great. Cal has been a sportswriters' darling the last few weeks, which keeps them from falling very far despite losing two straight games to unranked opponents.

• Rutgers enters the poll at #25 while Cincinnati falls out. Maybe Rutgers does deserve a top 25 spot for beating South Florida, and Cincinnati perhaps should fall out for dropping two straight, but shouldn't they have received more than one vote? In other words, not a single voter kept the Bearcats ahead of the Scarlett Knights, despite the fact that they beat them on the road two weeks ago.

This week's soapbox: Why is Texas ranked? Do the voters realize they haven't beaten any top 25 teams? And have two losses to unranked teams?

Sure, some of the undefeated teams haven't beaten any current top 25 teams either (in fact, none of them have). But they are undefeated. Likewise, there are some 1-loss teams who haven't beaten anyone: West Virginia, Virginia Tech, USC, Missouri, and Virginia. Again, though, only one loss. Most of the 2-loss teams in the poll have a quality win, and the exceptions, Alabama and Penn State, have at least defeated a team in the "others receiving votes" list.

Texas has not defeated any opponent that receives a single vote in the latest poll. They have two losses, both to unranked teams. Yet they sit at #17, having moved up six spots in the last two week for beating both Big 12 cellar dwellers.

They're ranked because they are Texas. If another team had their resumé, they wouldn't be ranked. Just like USC—any other team with no quality wins and a loss to Stanford would be hovering around Virginia at #21, if that.

The Longhorns have four games left against unranked foes. How high would they climb just by winning out? They'd deserve a top 25 ranking then, but they way this year's going, winning out might put them in the top five, and they wouldn't deserve that. I'm betting they'll be exposed (again) this year by either a surging Oklahoma State, or one of the other Texas teams.

Rutgers 30, South Florida 27: 1 Down, 5 To Go

It probably won't be enough to re-establish Ray Rice as a Heisman Candidate, even in this wide-open year, but his 181 yards helped Rutgers hand South Florida its first defeat of the season, 30-27. Rice carried the ball a whopping 39 times and had a late fumble, but came within an unofficial yard of 1,000 yards in his seventh game, which should keep him in the top five nationally. Matt Grothe, on the other hand, will likely see the groundswell of Heisman attention he'd been getting lately dry up.

Now the question is, how far should South Florida drop from #1, where I had them last week (and where they deserved to be...but no longer). They beat #7 West Virginia, so they will remain ahead of them; but that doesn't mean I can't move the Mountaineers down as well. We'll see. The Bulls' resumé still compares favorably to highly-touted California (#12 in my book): Cal beat Tennessee and Oregon, which is roughly equivalent to beating Auburn and West Virginia; and lost to Oregon State, which is somewhat worse than losing to Rutgers, probably. But Cal and USF aren't very far apart in terms of their seasons.

The even bigger question is, what if Ohio State loses? For the AP, that might mean moving idle Boston College into the #1 spot, whereas for me, with Boston College at #6, and more importantly, all the other undefeated teams not having a significant win this year, I'd probably go with LSU back at #1. I've felt all along that the Tigers are still the best team, and have played the toughest schedule of anyone. South Florida was the only unbeaten with some excellent wins, and Ohio State's defensive performances could justify it as a #1 team, but outside of that all the other teams have something to prove. And with B.C. and Arizona State idle, they can't prove it this week. So LSU it is, or would be, if Ohio State lost (and LSU beats Auburn, which is not guaranteed).

Rutgers at 5-2 deserves to pop back into the Top 25, but there's a catch—as of right now Maryland (4-2) is ahead of them, based on head-to-head competition. Maryland, likewise, lost to Wake Forest (4-2), so for Rutgers to get in both of those teams would have to precede them! Of course Maryland has to beat #21 Virginia and Wake Forest must handle Navy, or either or both of those teams won't be a factor.

AP poll commentary - week 7

This week's AP poll is very interesting—much more so than a normal poll because the voters had to deal with a lot of unexpected situations so that some reflection was required, rather than robotically moving teams up and down depending on what they did Saturday.

Ohio State at #1 is not surprising. After all, they were the highest rated team that didn't lose. But more importantly, they are Ohio State. If South Florida had been number three and Ohio State number five last week, the battle for the top spot would have been a lot closer than 50 to 11. Note that Boston College, Arizona State, Oklahoma, and LSU all get a single first place vote; Boston College and Arizona State's resumes are no weaker than Ohio State's, though the latter has shown defensive dominance. LSU is probably the best team in the country and there's really no argument against keeping them number one, given the teams they've beaten. Oklahoma is a different matter. It's hard to accept that the Sooners deserve to be ahead of LSU if you look at each team's loss (Colorado vs. Kentucky) and their wins (Texas, Missouri, Miami vs. South Carolina, Virginia Tech, Florida).

Discrepancies: Oregon is three spots ahead of Cal despite losing to them at home. Oregon played well last week; Florida is still four spots ahead of Auburn, though that's an improvement from last week; Texas is six spots ahead of Kansas State. In all three of these cases they were home losses, and in Texas' case they lost by 20 points. One discrepency from last week was fixed as Tennessee moved ahead of Georgia.

The coaches poll has the same basic look; the Harris poll, and with it, the first BCS rankings, come out later today. I will review the BCS rankings (and the computer rankings that accompany it) when they're available.

AP poll review - week 6

We're far enough into the season now that many head-to-head comparisons can be made between the teams in the top 25, and of course this means that the AP voters are disregarding simple logic once again.

For example, is there any excuse at all for having Georgia ahead of Tennessee? That was just 2 days ago, right, that the Volunteers dominated the Bulldogs? How did so many voters have Georgia still rated in front, even though the teams both have two losses?

Another example: Texas is still rated, while Kansas State (who beat them 41-21) is not. How does Texas deserve to be rated anyway? They've played poorly all year, but they stayed close to Oklahoma, and that might be the key: the Sooners are almost back in the top 5. But really, Oklahoma hasn't defeated a strong team all year. Unless you count the Longhorns…

A similar reasoning is apparently used for Florida: they almost beat LSU, so they shouldn't fall very far. But they also lost to Auburn, who is 9 spots lower than the Gators—and they lost at home, too.

Speaking of Auburn, they lost to Mississippi State, a team that gets only 3 votes in the poll. Someone should tell the voters they've lost only to LSU and South Carolina. Sure, the LSU loss was 45-0, but Virginia Tech is at #12 and they got beat 48-7 by the Tigers.

Voters in all the polls had trouble deciding what to do with USC, though the Trojans remained in the top ten. Apparently they just decided to ignore the fact that they lost to Stanford, and at home. The coaches' poll is even worse, putting USC at #7, although some of them solved the problem by putting Stanford in their top 25, as the Cardinal received a handful of votes…so that USC's loss wouldn't look too bad, I guess.

It'll all take care of itself eventually, but keeping teams like Florida, Oklahoma, and USC so high after losses sure looks like bias to me. I can assure you that if Boston College or Cincinnati lost to Stanford, the coaches would drop them more than six spots.

AP (and coaches) Poll, week 5

The new AP poll is here! The new AP poll is here! Ok, even if you're not Navin Johnson you should be a little excited at all the disruption that occurred over the weekend. The biggest surprise though, is that LSU is now #1. Evidently, just two weeks removed from various sportswriters declaring USC national champions already, people have taken a step back and decided it's not a done deal just yet. Imagine that.

Apparently everyone had trouble putting the teams in order this week. The top 5 ends up the same as mine, but after that things are different. Not any less arguable, but different. Some big changes: South Florida flies all the way from #18 to #6; Texas falls from #7 to #19. Pollsters weren't willing, however, to drop Oklahoma below Arizona State, who (as I mentioned before) is undefeated and beat Colorado, while the Sooners just lost to the Buffaloes.

I shouldn't expect the pollsters to take a transitive proposition into account though, since they aren't very consistent with head-to-head competition. Kansas State, by rights, should be ahead of Texas, after beating them 41-21 at Austin. Even outside of that game, K-State has played better this year; their loss to Auburn was close and looks more forgiveable now, and Texas has barely played a decent half this season. Again, many pollsters are hesitant to drop a team much more than 10 spots, and that's why Texas remains in front. I should give them credit, though, for fixing South Carolina vs. Georgia, as the Gamecocks ease past the Bulldogs up to #11.

The coaches kept USC #1, perhaps thinking that if their team were #1 and didn't lose, they wouldn't want to drop a spot. But they also barely punished Florida for losing. I think the coaches just don't like to move teams around as much. And sometimes they're just not on the ball: they have Georgia 7 spots ahead of South Carolina. UCLA also peeks back into their top 25. Remember, UCLA lost 44-6 to Utah. Why are they considered ahead of Florida State, who actually beat a ranked team last week and only lost to Clemson? Overall the AP list makes more sense to me.

2003 all over again

AP Poll commentary, week 4

The top ten of this week's AP poll is now so close to mine that it's hard to find fault with it. USC is still #1, which I have no qualms with, except I wonder how many articles there will be this week expounding on Southern Cal's unbeatable status, and how the Nebraska game proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that the Trojans are the best team in the land. Ball State went into Lincoln and should have come out a winner; could it be that Nebraska's defense is porous, rather than USC's attack unstoppable?

But more interestingly, look at the top three. USC, LSU, Oklahoma. That was the exact order of finish as the final poll in 2003; the same three teams that were involved in the BCS debacle of that year, where the Trojans were left out of the title game but finished #1 after LSU defeated Oklahoma. Wouldn't it be something if all three of these teams went undefeated? That would also make it very similar to 2004, with USC, Oklahoma, and the SEC champ (then Auburn) going undefeated. If that happens, it would only be just if Oklahoma is left out this time around; after all, they lost both of the previous games. Additionally, it doesn't look like their schedule is going to be as difficult as USC's and certainly not LSU's.

Somehow, the voters have decided to disregard South Carolina's road victory over Georgia and put the Bulldogs ahead of the Gamecocks. Sure, it was a close game, but it was at Georgia, so there's no reason to put Georgia ahead just because SC lost to the #2 team. The short memory of some of the pollsters amazes me; this was just a week ago! I think what occurs is, voters believe South Carolina has to fall a certain amount of spots for losing, and Georgia had to rise for beating Alabama, and whoops! Their paths crossed. But did Georgia really need to climb seven spots rather than six for winning a game in overtime?

This is why I always list key games with my Top 25; it provides an immediate reason for a team's ranking, and points out potential discrepancies. If the voters saw this information when they were submitting their list, fewer of them would make "mistakes" such as this one.

AP poll critique, week 3

Some notes and nitpicks about this week's AP poll.

• USC gains 6 first place votes from LSU due to their blowout of Nebraska, which is fair; I still think LSU is more deserving right now, but it's rare for the AP to topple a #1 who doesn't lose, especially one like USC.


• It's interesting that Florida passed Oklahoma, not because Florida didn't deserve to move up after blasting Tennessee, but since Oklahoma has looked great all year. Pass West Virginia? Sure.
  
  
• California moved to #6 and Ohio State to #8 just like I had, but I put Texas at #9 and left Wisconsin at #7. Wisconsin took care of business in the 2nd half, while Texas could easily have 2 losses right now.
  
  
• Penn State stayed ahead of Rutgers. No big deal, but clearly like I noted, Rutgers didn't let Buffalo score any garbage points in the 4th quarter like PSU did. There is nothing else to distinguish these two teams from each other, resultswise!
  
  
• Oregon and Boston College at #13 and #14 still aren't in my Top 25. They both deserve to be counted among the best teams, though I think Oregon might be a little high. I follow the beat-someone-to-get-in rule, for the most part (I will put in teams with stellar records regardless, if they are the last undefeated team, for example) which sometimes I regret. Oregon plays Cal in two weeks, but B.C. doesn't play a rated team until Virginia Tech on October 25th! By then they would be 7-0 and I'd have them ranked, too.
  
  
• I'm a little surprised Arkansas fell from the top 25 after such a close loss to Alabama on the road, especially if the pollsters now put Alabama all the way up at #16! And with Virginia Tech, who got beat 48-7, at #17...
  
  
• A gripe: Kentucky comes in at #21, 3 spots below Louisville, whom they beat. This is the kind of inconsistency I don't like. If a 2-1 team can be rated ahead of a 3-0 team they lost a close road game to, then why isn't Arkansas still ahead of Alabama? Kentucky just doesn't have the football cred for the voters to rank them logically.
  
  
• I don't see how Missouri yet deserves to be ranked. The AP did add South Florida this week. I have Washington, Air Force, and Arkansas ranked, as discrepancies from the AP. Of those, Washington really could have fallen out this week, and Air Force's case isn't much stronger than Missouri's. Admittedly BC and Oregon should be in, but Arkansas still looks better than Missouri and Air Force looks similar so far.
  
  
• Poor Appalachian State loses 14 points this week. Michigan dominated this week, which should have made App. State look even better, but I think voting for them was a novelty that's over. Plus they had a marginally tough game as the euphoria wore off from the past two weeks.

AP poll criticism, week 2

Wow, there's not much for me to complain about in this week's AP poll. Probably because it so closely resembles my rankings. The AP kept USC number one and LSU #2, which is understandable since the top spot rarely changes so early, especially when the #1 is idle. But like me they jump Oklahoma to #3, pushing West Virginia and Florida down a notch each, and elevate Texas to #6 where I put them, followed by Wisconsin, California and Louisville, teams that were unmoved in my rankings but were #5, #10, and #8 the week before in AP.

They opted for Ohio State rather than UCLA at #10, but had Penn State, Rutgers, and Nebraska following. They even had South Carolina jump in at #17, close to #15 where I put them.

Things get a little different from there, but I don't expect the AP to match my rankings; the real reason I write this is to point out logical inconsistencies that creep into the poll over the course of the season. Georgia Tech is at #15 and probably deserves that, though I don't usually put teams in until they beat a team in the top 25 (or when that team has the best record of any unranked team) so GT might have to wait a while until they make my ranks. Also, Oregon is #19 and I can't argue with that. They even dropped Hawaii 4 spots for almost losing, which I considered doing but the bottom of the poll is reserved right now for teams that have actually lost or new and unproved teams. Boston College is another good team that will make my rankings eventually I'm sure.

The AP almost added South Florida, and Washington was 29th. Both those teams will probably lose soon, but I like to reward teams for winning and being undefeated. And Virginia Tech didn't fall as much as I had them fall.

But as of now there aren't any real logical inconsistencies in the poll yet. There hasn't been enough interplay among the top teams; that will come.

Also note that Appalachian State got 19 points. A week ago, they might have made the poll, but Oregon took the piss out of Michigan, and with it Appalachian State's claim to be a top 25 team. It's too bad for them, as they stood a chance to stay in the poll to the end, once entrenched. They still might, if Michigan recovers and has a good season, and if Appalachian State goes undefeated and wins the I-AA crown.

No big surprises in first week AP poll

I don't have any qualms with the first week's AP poll. That'll come later, when the pollsters start forgetting games that were played in the first few weeks.

USC lost a few first place votes, as they probably should have. Florida and Oklahoma jumped into the top 5, just like in my subjective rankings. Texas dropped one more spot even than mine, and that was probably deserved.

Ohio State dropped a spot, which I didn't expect. Was there really a reason to move Georgia ahead of them? Also, Auburn actually gained a spot, whereas I dropped them almost to the bottom. I think the pollsters just looked at the final score and thought, well K State isn't too bad a team and Auburn beat them by 10 points...

Penn State jumped over Rutgers, same again. The main difference in the AP and my rankings right now is that I didn't put Georgia Tech in, and AP did. I didn't drop FSU out, even though I wouldn't have started them in the Top 25 if I made one from scratch. I think it's going to be a long year for Bobby Bowden, and it seems he's realizing it already, too. Oh, and Michigan fell all the way out, too. Good choice by the pollsters. Makes them earn their way back in.

In the following weeks I'll be pointing out the glaring and obvious logic flaws in the polls, once they begin to form. And they will. They always do...

Top 25 rundown - week 1

In an week which was long on blowouts and short on good competition (even moreso than normal for opening weeks), the standards for success were pretty high.

The Good – teams that looked impressive
#2 LSU 45, Miss St. 0 – Their defense, at least, looks national title-worthy
#6 Florida 49, W. Kentucky 3 – Tebow appears comfortable, as expected
#8 Oklahoma 79, N Texas 10 – Excellent offensive output vs. overmatched opponent; check back next week (vs. Miami)
#10 Louisville 73, Murray St. 10 – Brohm and Co. scored on first play, didn't look back
#12 California 45, Tenn. 31 – beat Tennessee, which, for this week, was like playing a pro team.
#17 Penn State 59, FIU 0 – 59 points, a shutout, what more do you want? A decent opponent?
#23 Hawaii 63, N Colorado 6 – Colt Brennan threw six TDs; rest of squad did pretty well too. And their schedule doesn't really get that much harder.
#24 Boise State 56, Weber St. 7 – Another blowout. Can't wait for Boise/Hawaii.

The Bad – teams that had trouble or just didn't look sharp
#7 Wisconsin 42, Wash St. 21 – couldn't put WSU away until the end, which isn't really awful, it's just not what you expect from a top 10 team.
#9 Virginia Tech 17, East Carolina 7 – a sloppy win from a distracted team that was charged with 'healing' their campus by the media.
#15 Tennessee 31, Cal 45 – The Vols fought a good fight, but a loss is a loss.
#21 Arkansas 46, Troy 26 – Much like Wisconsin, Arkansas never quite dominated, and against a lesser opponent

The Ugly – these teams failed to impress whatsoever
#4 Texas 21, Ark. St. 13– didn't play like a Top 25 team, let alone top 5. Really, this was a worse showing than Michigan's except for the fact they got the 'W'.
#5 Michigan 32, Appalachian State 34. 'Nuff said.
#18 Auburn 23, Kansas St. 13 – closer than the score. Unless K State ends up competing for the Big 12 title, this was a very poor showing for the Tigers.

The Rest – didn't give us any new information
#1 USC 38, Idaho 10 – Not exactly domination, but a good warm up.
#3 West Virginia 62, W. Mich 24 – Slaton/White look great of course, but doesn't answer defensive questions
#11 Ohio State 38, Youngstown St. 6 – Yawn
#13 Georgia 35, Oklahoma State 14
#14 UCLA 45, Stanford 17
#16 Rutgers 38, Buffalo 3
#20 Nebraska 52, Nevada 10
#22 TCU 27, Baylor 0
#25 Texas A&M 38, Montana State 7

My own top 25 will come out after #19 FSU plays on Monday. Don't expect to see Michigan in it.