2011 Pre-Season Rankings: #120 Memphis Tigers

SportsRatings 2011 College Football Pre-season Top 120

MEMPHIS TIGERS   (Conference USA #12; East #6)

#120	2010 Results	Record: 1-11	Strength:#117  Success:#117  Overall:#117
		AP, USA unranked	Bowl: None
	2011 Outlook	Record: 2-10	Picks: Lindy's #110; Athlon #118; Steele #116
		AP N/A, USA N/A	Bowl: N/A (<1% chance of eligibility)

Memphis struggled through a tough season and it doesn't look to get much better in 2011.

Offense 3 RS	'10 Scoring Offense: #119 (raw) #118 (adjusted)
	'11 Projected Scoring Offense: #117

The Tiger offense didn't put a lot of points on the board last year; with only three starters returning, it's as good a time as any to change offensive philosophies.

Passing Game	'10 Passing Rank: #81 (raw) #86 (adjusted)	'10 QB Protection Rank: #113
	'11 Projected Passing Rank: #52	'11 QB Protection Rank: #120

Last year's starting quarterback, Ryan Williams (2,073 yards, 10 TDs, 13 int) transferred, main backup Cannon Smith moved to safety, backup Tyler Bass transferred, and incoming frosh Dominique Harris didn't qualify, leaving the QB cupboard bare. So why the projected upgrade to near-respectable status for the passing game? The moved to a spread-style offense, which normally juices numbers quite a bit. Top receiver Marcus Rucker (704 yards) and three of the next four targets are back, including WR/RB Billy Foster. And immediately-eligible grad student Skylar Jones transfers in from Wake Forest to compete with sophomore Andy Summerlin for the top spot. But pass protection, a problem last year, is an even greater concern as four starters depart from the offensive line and with more attempts, there will naturally be more sacks.

Rushing

'10 Rushing rank: #117 (raw) #117 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #120

The running game, poor last season, might be worse this year as the spread is implemented. Top back Gregory Ray (676 yards) departs, leaving Jerrell Rhodes (469) the #1 rusher, with WR Foster moving into the backfield. The offensive line loses starters Dominik Riley, Joel McCloud, and Brad Paul, while another, Tommy Walker, moves to the defense. This leaves Ronald Leary the sole returnee. It doesn't look promising, but you can argue that they can't get much worse than last year. We'll find out.

Defense 4 RS	'10 Scoring Defense: #117 (raw) #116 (adjusted)	'10 sacks: #92	'10 picks: #111
	'11 Projected Scoring Defense: #119	'11 sacks: #81	'11 picks: #117
'10 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #81    Pass Defense: #114   Per-play pass defense: #119

Last year's D had trouble with the pass; this season might bring a better pass rush but an even weaker secondary, and overall little change.

The front four returns Frank Trotter (16.5 tackles for loss) and Dontari Poe, and between Corey Jones and others the positions are well-covered. As mentioned Walker moves in from offensive tackle. So up front the Tigers are pretty solid; the problems begin at linebacker where DeRon Furr is the only returning starter, the big loss being #1 tackler Jamon Hughes (147 tackles). The secondary is problematic; starters Marcus Ball, D.A. Griffin, and Darius Davis are all gone, and in the spring Mo Seisay tranferred. They also lose a number of top reserves while gaining QB Smith. Add in the quicker pace of the offense making things harder on the defense and the new group has their work cut out for them.

Kicking Game: The kicking game is a bright spot for Memphis. Punter Tom Hornsey (42.7 ave) and kicker Paulo Henriquez (14 of 18 FG) are both back.
Return Game: The fielding unit is a mixed bag with WR/RB Foster taking over main duties from departing d-back Griffin; both averaged around 19 yards per return last year. Curtis Johnson continues with punt return chores despite a dismal 1.0 yard average last season.
Coaching/Recruiting      '11 Recruiting Rank: #55
The real bright spot for Memphis this year is their incoming class, which is a big step up from last year and one of the best in the C-USA. It's head coach Larry Porter's all-important 2nd class, and shows that the future is promising even if the present is a bit cloudy. Porter responded to last year's 1-11 mark by shaking things up in the coaching staff and installing a spread offense; whether that pays immediate dividends or not, there is hope that Memphis will exit the conference cellar soon. Frosh QB Taylor Reed is another starting candidate as the Tigers look for a field leader.

2010 Recap  Not much went Memphis' way last year. A home win over Dwight-Dasherless Middle Tennessee was the peak in game three. After that it was nine straight losses, six of them by 20 or more points (this came after starting 0-2, both blowouts).

Memphis 2011 schedule & forecast
9/3	Sat	vs.	Mississippi St.	1%	L
9/10	Sat	@	Arkansas State	4%	L
9/17	Sat	vs.	Austin Peay	79%	W
9/24	Sat	vs.	*SMU	5%	L
10/1	Sat	@	M. Tennessee St.	21%	L
10/8	Sat	@	*Rice	9%	L
10/15	Sat	vs.	*East Carolina	15%	L
10/22	Sat	@	*Tulane	13%	L
10/29	Sat	@	*Central Florida	1%	L
11/12	Sat	vs.	*UAB	13%	L
11/19	Sat	vs.	*Marshall	19%	L
11/26	Sat	@	*Southern Miss	1%	L
Straight up: 1-11  Cume: 2-10  Bowl elig: 1%

 

2011 Outlook  Luckily for Memphis, they have a "gimme" on the schedule in the form of lowly FCS team Austin Peay, making it all but certain they'll at least match last year's win count. In fact, it's slightly more likely than not that they'll improve on last season's record.

They'll need an upset to do so, and it probably won't come in the opener against Mississippi State, nor at UCF or Southern Miss, three games in which we give them just a splinter's chance. Rice, SMU, and even Arkansas State aren't good possibilities, either, making six games that look like nearly assured losses. That's why the Tigers' bowl chance—a generous 1%—is so low. When you have trouble locating win #2, getting to win #6 is quite a big step. But stranger things have happened, and if the change in offense lights a fire under the team and the new faces come up big, who knows? More likely, though, this is a year to rebuild and to build upon for the Tigers.

Comments

[GOTIGERS]

Tigers are NOT THE WORST team in the country. Wait till septemer youll find out.