The final relevant weekend for the 2010 BCS standings has passed, and no major surprises occurred. Oregon and Auburn both won, leaving the question of the top two teams easily solved. Favorites Oklahoma and Virginia Tech earned automatic bids to the Fiesta and Orange bowls respectively. Connecticut solved the mystery of the Big East by beating USF and claiming an automatic bid.
In fact, the weekend's results matched the default setting in our BCS Bowl Predictor widget. So if you use the widget and don't change anything, you get the matchups presented below as the result.
The top spot will remain with Auburn and they will undoubtedly increase their .0002 margin from last week. Significantly, Stanford appears to easily hold the #4 spot, meaning they are guaranteed a BCS bowl, and Wisconsin remains ahead of Ohio State, meaning they win the Big Ten and go to the Rose Bowl. This makes forecasting the pairings a whole lot easier.
The only questions are whether Oklahoma will pass Arkansas for the #7 spot or just move up one to #8; whether Boise moves into the top 10; and how far Virginia Tech moves up (they may pass Oklahoma State). None of these make a difference in the selection of the BCS bowls.
Projected BCS Standings for Sunday, December 5, 2010
|2010 Projected Final BCS Standings
|prev||new||Team||record||BCS Bowl||Proj. Score||Actual|
|1||1||Auburn||13-0|| BCS Title
|2||2||Oregon||12-0|| BCS Title
Update: I very nearly got the entire top 15 correct, but had Boise State and LSU swapped. Close but no cigar. UPDATE DAYS LATER: Actually, I DID get the entire top 15 correct. It turns out there was a glitch in one of the computer ratings (Colley) and when refigured, Boise State actually is #10 and LSU #11. Interesting! Details here.
From this, we get the following probable BCS bowl pairings:
|BCS Championship Game:||Auburn vs. Oregon
|Rose Bowl:||Wisconsin vs. TCU|
|Sugar Bowl:||Arkansas vs. Ohio State|
|Orange Bowl:||Virginia Tech vs. Stanford
|Fiesta Bowl:||Oklahoma vs. Connecticut
It's pretty simple for the national championship game: Auburn will face Oregon.
The Rose Bowl is pretty well set with Wisconsin and TCU, and Arkansas and Ohio State are pretty much a lock for the Sugar. The Orange will probably take Stanford to face Virginia Tech instead of 8-4 Connecticut, leaving the Huskies to face Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.
The only changeups I could see happening are the Orange taking UConn, or the BCS Bowls together deciding it would be better to put them in the Orange and have Stanford stay out West in the Fiesta. But if they're going to do that, why not go one step farther and put Stanford in the Rose where they belong, and create an Oklahoma-TCU matchup in the Fiesta? It's a slim chance but possible according to the BCS rules. Whether the bowls involved would want this, I don't know.
UPDATE: Well, the swaps didn't happen unfortunately. Oh well. We had the BCS bowls correct; by the end they were pretty obvious I think.