Week 9 Preview, Odds, & Predictions: Oregon to the Rose Bowl?

Another big week, with six undefeated teams in action and Oregon battling USC:

1. #14 USC (6-1) at #12 Oregon (6-1)
   Vegas line/odds: USC by 3
   Strength Power Rating: Oregon 25, USC 20
   % of game comparisons: Oregon 59%
   Yardage-to-score projection: USC 20, Oregon 16
   Yards per-attempt extrapolation: USC 24, Oregon 17
   Analysis: Oregon is just as good as USC, and right now they deserve to be ahead in the polls as I've noted before. The Ducks are even at home. All of this should make Oregon the favorite but it hasn't. Part of this is the USC mystique, and part of this is the reality that the Trojans don't lose the big games. They might drop a conference game each year, but never to a team that will have the tiebreaker over them for the Rose Bowl. I still think the Ducks could end up in the Rose Bowl, since I suspect USC will fall to one of their last four opponents. But barring that, this is for the Pac-10 title, and Pete Carroll always seems to have his team ready.
   Prediction: USC 20, Oregon 13
    
2. #2 Texas (7-0) at #13 Oklahoma State (6-1)
   Vegas line/odds: Texas by 9 1/2
   Strength Power Rating: Texas 36, Oklahoma State 19
   % of game comparisons: Texas 79.6%
   Yardage-to-score projection: Texas 31, Oklahoma State 7
   Yards per-attempt extrapolation: Texas 24, Oklahoma State 17
   Analysis: This really shouldn't be a close game. Not that Texas can't play a bad game—they have. But the end result has always been pretty strong even if it looked ugly; no one else beat Oklahoma even by 3 points. But Oklahoma State has been overrated since beating Georgia, and since then they've lost 2/3 of their star offensive trio, with Kendall Hunter slowed by injury and Dez Bryant ruled ineligible for talking to Deion Sanders. Oklahoma State is banking their season on this game but the Longhorns won't take this game for granted.
   Prediction: Texas 31, Oklahoma State 17
    
3. #1 Florida (7-0) vs. Georgia (4-3)
   Vegas line/odds: Florida by 15
   Strength Power Rating: Florida 38, Georgia 19
   % of game comparisons: Florida 85.7%
   Yardage-to-score projection: Florida 37, Georgia 7
   Yards per-attempt extrapolation: Florida 38, Georgia 17
   Analysis: The spread on this is pretty wide considering the Bulldogs were ranked in the pre-season. But three losses later the team is yesterday's news. Florida's reputation has taken a hit, too, but they remain heavy favorites even against solid competition. It seems that both of these teams are overdue to have a good game. Florida's offense might finally hit it's stride but still not see a blowout win if Georgia plays well, too.
   Prediction: Florida 37, Georgia 23
    
4. Indiana (4-4) vs. #4 Iowa (8-0)
   Vegas line/odds: Iowa by 17 1/2
   Strength Power Rating: Iowa 32, Indiana 7
   % of game comparisons: Iowa 93.8%
   Yardage-to-score projection: Iowa 33, Indiana 10
   Yards per-attempt extrapolation: Iowa 31, Indiana 14
   Analysis: The Hawks, too, would relish a game where they just blow out their opponent; they haven't had one at home yet, and only once have they won by more than 11 all year. So being a two-and-a-half touchdown favorite, even against the Hoosiers, may seem a bit excessive. Especially considering the loss of their leading rusher and a starting offensive tackle. As always the Hawkeyes will get it done with defense. I don't see a "trap" game here, though this Iowa team could lose to about anyone—while being capable of beating anyone, too.
   Prediction: Iowa 27, Indiana 13
    
5. San Jose State (1-5) at #5 Boise State (7-0)
   Vegas line/odds: Boise State by 36 1/2
   Strength Power Rating: Boise State 45, San Jose State 8
   % of game comparisons: Boise State 100%
   Yardage-to-score projection: Boise State 42, San Jose State 3
   Yards per-attempt extrapolation: Boise State 49, San Jose State 3
   Analysis: Exhibit A of why the Broncos won't get to the national title game if they go undefeated—they play too many teams like the Spartans. And with TCU in the running, they might not get a BCS bowl game at all, despite beating Oregon. Winning this game is a must, of course, but the Oregon-USC game is just as important to their future. A win for the Ducks is a big boost for the Broncos.
   Prediction: Boise State 42, San Jose State 10
    
6. UNLV (3-5) at #6 TCU (7-0)
   Vegas line/odds: TCU by 35
   Strength Power Rating: TCU 46, UNLV 8
   % of game comparisons: TCU 100%
   Yardage-to-score projection: TCU 50, UNLV 10
   Yards per-attempt extrapolation: TCU 54, UNLV 6
   Analysis: The Horned Frogs have their own schedule problem, namely games like this. TCU has a real chance of being in the national title game if Texas drops a game and Iowa loses to Ohio State, both of which are decent probabilities. But their schedule works against them from here on out. When you're a 5-touchdown favorite anything less than a blowout win can lose you points in the polls and even playing the game can hurt you with the computers. TCU showed how hungry they were last week so I expect they'll keep it up, but giving their all for 60 minutes could be a challenge.
   Prediction:TCU 45, UNLV 17
    
7. #7 Cincinnati (7-0) at Syracuse (3-4)
   Vegas line/odds: Cincinnati by 15
   Strength Power Rating: Cincinnati 43, Syracuse 16
   % of game comparisons: Cincinnati 100%
   Yardage-to-score projection: Cincinnati 35, Syracuse 13
   Yards per-attempt extrapolation: Cincinnati 35, Syracuse 10
   Analysis: The line on this seems a bit close to me, particularly given the huge spreads on some of the other games. But Syracuse has shown great improvement this year, and they're going to shock someone this season like they did Notre Dame last year (I'm guessing it will be Pitt). Greg Paulus is having a decent year and by current Orange standards is excelling. Just like Iowa is due for a good game Cincinnati hasn't played a bad one yet; could this be it?
   Prediction: Cincinnati 35, Syracuse 20
    
8. #21 West Virginia (6-1) at #22 South Florida (5-2)
   Vegas line/odds: West Virginia by 3
   Strength Power Rating: South Florida 24, West Virginia 22
   % of game comparisons: South Florida 51%
   Yardage-to-score projection: West Virginia 22, South Florida 19
   Yards per-attempt extrapolation: South Florida 27, West Virginia 23
   Analysis: Neither of these teams has defeated a really good opponent. South Florida's list of victims is sad: FSU is the only decent win, with Syracuse and Western Kentucky the only other I-A schools on the list. But the Bulls have only lost to Pitt and Cincinnati, putting West Virginia in the "gray area", better than any team they've beaten, not as good as the teams they've lost to. West Virginia beat UConn last week, a team comparable to USF, but also lost to Auburn, another perhaps comparable team. USF has the advantage of the home field, and the disadvantage of possibly being at the start of another mid-season swoon. Every indication points to a close game; if either team wins by double digits they'll be making a statement.
   Prediction: South Florida 23, West Virginia 22