Iowa is 8-0 for the first time in the history of the program. Could this be the best Hawkeye team ever?
For Florida, Texas, Alabama, this would be a very tough question, given all the great teams and national champions those programs have had. Even Boise State has routinely gone undefeated this decade. For Cincinnati, it's too easy of a question: the program has only had real success in the past few years. But for Iowa—and for TCU, another team I'll pose the question about—success has been intermittent, prompting fans to pose the question of how this year's team might stack up to the best teams in the program's history.
In terms of success, you can't argue with this year's results. But then again, with four more games and a bowl game to go, a team's success can't fairly be gauged until the season is over. Currently at #7 in the AP poll, Iowa could go much higher or fall much lower. So instead I'll try to look at the team's actual strength as well as their success, and compare it to other years by referring to their power rating performance. The Strength component tells more about how good a team actually is, while the Overall rating incorporates how we'll they've done in wins and losses, too. This gives an objective look at the teams without having to debate quality position by position, etc.
The first question, and it's a fair one, is: Is Iowa better than last year? The 2008 team also featured a tough defense while the offense was much better, with Shonn Greene leading a consistent ground game.
- 2008: Record: 9-4; AP #20. Power rating: Strength #16, Overall: #16
- 2009: Record: 8-0; AP #7. Power rating: Strength #15, Overall: #6
This year's team is roughly the same in quality as last year's team. But where the Hawks lost four games in 2008 by a total of 12 points, this year's team has won four games by a total of 8 points—there's that little difference between the two squads. But by winning the close games instead of losing them, the 2009 squad is far ahead of the 2008 squad—with 1/3 of the season yet to play.
Going back in time, the next mini-era to compare are the 2002-2004 teams, all three of which finished #8 in the nation.
- 2002: Record: 11-2; AP #8. Power rating: Strength #7, Overall #8
- 2003: Record: 10-3; AP #8. Power rating: Strength #12, Overall #11
- 2004: Record: 11-2; AP #8. Power rating: Strength #22, Overall #17
In 2002 Iowa had Heisman runner-up Brad Banks at quarterback and rose as high as #3 before being clubbed by USC in the Orange Bowl. This is the team that most people compare this year's Hawks to, but the 2002 squad was probably quite a bit better. This year's team would end up better, of course, by winning out, but head-to-head the 2002 squad would be favored, as perhaps would the 2003 squad, which had a less-stellar regular season but beat Florida in a blowout in the Outback Bowl. The 2004 team had no running game whatsoever and beat LSU on a miracle last-second pass play in the Capitol One Bowl, and demonstrated the slow decline that ultimately led to the few disappointing seasons that followed.
- 1995: Record: 8-4; AP #25. Power rating: Strength #13, Overall #14
- 1996: Record: 9-3; AP #18. Power rating: Strength #16, Overall #17
The 1995 was written off after four straight losses, but they came back to score a big upset win over Washington in the Sun Bowl. Next year's team had its ups and downs but scored a shutout over Texas Tech in the Alamo Bowl. Though these team aren't remembered as anything special, they were probably as good as this year's squad except for their ability to win the big games. It begs the question, is this year's team really that great? Are they just getting lucky, or do they really have a special "winning" quality that can't be measured?
- 1990: Record: 8-4; AP #18. Power rating: Strength #16, Overall #17
- 1991: Record: 10-1-1; AP #10. Power rating: Strength #17, Overall #18
Iowa's last Rose Bowl trip was in 1990, a loss to Washington. The next year they had their best record since 1960 with only a loss and a tie to BYU in the Holiday Bowl. Though they finished #10, the 1991 team was overrated due to a very easy schedule; they only beat two teams with winning records. Still, both of these teams are comparable to this year's squad in strength.
- 1981: Record: 8-4; AP #18. Power rating: Strength #29, Overall #24
- 1982: Record: 8-4; AP #nr. Power rating: Strength #36, Overall #36
- 1983: Record: 9-4; AP #14. Power rating: Strength #11, Overall #11
- 1984: Record: 8-4-1; AP #16. Power rating: Strength #13, Overall #16
- 1985: Record: 10-2; AP #10. Power rating: Strength #3, Overall #6
- 1986: Record: 9-3; AP #16. Power rating: Strength #20, Overall #23
- 1987: Record: 10-3; AP #16. Power rating: Strength #22, Overall #21
The early to mid-80s were Iowa's best run under Hayden Fry, with consistent top-20 finishes and a couple of Rose Bowl appearances. They never could quite get over the hump and be among the nation's elite, though they came close in '85. The 1981 team shocked the world by going to the Rose Bowl as the first non-Michigan/Ohio State representative since the 1967 season. They were badly beaten by Washington, but next year's team was almost as good with new quarterback Chuck Long a freshman. The '83 and '84 teams were even better, and for Long's senior year in 1985 Iowa had a breakout season, climbing to #1 by mid-season.
The 1985 team is Iowa's best team of the last 5 decades, and the team that this year's will be measured by. Though many of the teams above compare to the 2009 squad, none except the 2002 team is unquestionably a better football team, and only the 1985 team matches this year's level of combined quality and success, ranking #6 overall in 1985. This despite a horrendous Rose Bowl debacle where Ronnie Harmon fumbled four time. Imagine Mark Ingram fumbling four times in one game for Alabama, that's how unusual it was. That Harmon later was revealed to have an agent who made "loans" to him during his career raised the "hmmm..." factor a lot. But that's a digression.
The '86 and '87 teams were still good but 1985 is clearly the year that could have been. If this year's squad can maintain its miracle ways they will surpass even Long's senior year in Hawkeye folklore.
The 80's were preceeded by 20 years of losing seasons, making them even more significant by comparison. Just before that, though, the Hawkeyes had an era that surpasses the Fry era, under Forest Evashevski.
- 1953: Record: 5-3-1; AP #9. Power rating: Strength #7, Overall #9
- 1954: Record: 5-4-0; AP nr. Power rating: Strength #11, Overall #14
- 1956: Record: 9-1-0; AP #3. Power rating: Strength #7, Overall #5
- 1957: Record: 7-1-1; AP #6. Power rating: Strength #7, Overall #7
- 1958: Record: 8-1-1; AP #2. Power rating: Strength #2, Overall #2
- 1959: Record: 5-4-0; AP nr. Power rating: Strength #4, Overall #9
- 1960: Record: 8-1-0; AP #3. Power rating: Strength #1, Overall #1
Five top ten finishes in eight years! In 1953 Iowa was tougher than its 5-3 record and proved it by battling #1 Notre Dame to 14-14 tie on the road, jumping them from #20 to #9 in the AP poll. They were nearly as good next year, losing three games by nine points, but lost to the Irish and were unranked. 1955 was an off year (3-5-1) but in 1956 the team finished #3 in the nation and then won the Rose Bowl. The final polls were released before the bowl games before the late 60s, or the Hawks could have finished #2.
1957 was another successful year, and in 1958 Iowa had perhaps its best year ever, finishing #2 in the AP poll and being declared national champions by the Football Writers' Association of America, who gave the honor after the bowl games. The AP #1, LSU, had won only 7-0 over Clemson while Iowa won the Rose Bowl beating Cal 38-12. By my power rating, Iowa finishes #2 and 11-0 LSU #1, in both Strength and Success.
The 1959 team was dominant when they won but lost four games. In 1960 they rebounded for another top five finish and according to my power rating were the best team in the country that year. However the polls, taken before Minnesota lost in the Rose Bowl, crowned the Gophers champions. The Gopher beat the Hawkeyes soundly, 27-10, for Iowa's only loss, so they can't really complain. And 10-0-1 Mississippi would have claimed the crown anyway. But this is the year that Iowa was really the best team, but couldn't close the deal on the field. Sort of the opposite of this season, and somewhat similar to the 1985 squad that ultimately underperformed.
- 1939: Record: 6-1-1; AP #9. Power rating: Strength #30, Overall #28
The "Ironmen" year for Iowa, when Nile Kinnick won the Heisman trophy, was the first modern-era team to be ranked. But the team was probably overrated, beating mostly losing teams and a Notre Dame squad that was overrated too. The farther back we look, the less reliable both the polls and power ratings become, as there was less interplay between teams and even regions of the country. So as we go back to the 1920s and earlier, before the AP poll was started in 1936, the power ratings give only an approximation of a team's talent level.
But Iowa had a few seasons in the 20s that should be addressed: The only years when the Hawkeyes went unblemished, something they're trying to achieve this season.
- 1921: Record: 7-0-0; Power rating: Strength #6, Overall #5
- 1922: Record: 7-0-0; Power rating: Strength #6, Overall #5
The Hawkeyes had two other years, very early in their history, when they were unbeaten. In 1899 they were tied by powerhouse Chicago, and in 1900 by Northwestern
- 1899: Record: 8-0-1; Power rating: Strength #6, Overall #6
- 1900: Record: 7-0-1; Power rating: Strength #6, Overall #5
Conclusion
This year's Hawkeye team is essentially the same as last year's team, trading close losses for narrow wins. The way they play on the edge it seems inevitable that they'll drop a game, but if they don't, and win their bowl game (which could be for a national championship under those circumstances), they should be recognized as the greatest Iowa football team ever. Lose even one game and the benefit of the doubt that perfection affords will be lost, and the team will rank below some of the teams of the 1950s, the 1985 team, and perhaps the 2002 squad.
Over their long history, Iowa has had several teams that are as good as this one, and a handful that have been better (relative to their year of competition, of course). This year's team is simply maximizing its potential in a way that the teams of the past haven't managed to do. It makes one wonder—what would this team be doing if Shonn Greene had returned to the squad?
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