College Football

AP Poll not free of inconsistencies, either

Dan Wetzel pointed out some ridiculous rankings courtesy of the USA/Coaches and Harris polls: namely, that 4-0 Iowa (#17, #14) is ranked lower than 3-1 Penn State (#13, #12) after beating them 21-10 in Happy Valley; and that Oregon (#25, #23) remains lower than Cal (#18, #21) despite crushing them 42-3 just days ago.

Those are pretty bad examples of inconsistencies in the polls. Teams with the same record, where team A has beaten Team B, should see Team A ranked higher in almost any conceivable case. If Team A has a better record, it's inexcusable (as in Iowa-Penn State) and if Team A has the same record and obliterated Team B, it's also inexcusable (as in Oregon's case).

These inconsistencies tend to resolve themselves eventually, either by the pollsters gradually correcting them or the teams themselves losing to make the problem moot. But the examples above are particularly egregious, and Wetzel rightly points out that the AP poll—not part of the BCS—does a better job than its BCS counterparts.

Of course, Wetzel is an anti-BCS, pro-playoff cheerleader, so he takes particular joy in pointing out the shortcomings of the system. But is the poll conducted his peers really that much better? Though they got Iowa-Penn State and Oregon-Cal right, here are some of the other problems I see in the most recent AP poll:

• #7 USC (3-1) lost 16-13 at unranked Washington (2-2) - This isn't a classic inconsistency as defined above; Washington has a worse record so they can be ranked lower. The trouble is that this early in the poll, a top ten team has a loss to an unranked foe. There are only two other teams in the poll with a loss to an unranked team. This is a case where voters look ahead and see a better future for the Trojans than they've encountered so far—and also a case where the poll got "trapped" because Ohio State was near the top ten, and they didn't want to move USC lower. Finally, it's a case of inertia and bias. USC has been in the top ten so long it's hard to believe they should ever fall out.
• #8 Oklahoma (2-1) lost 14-13 at home (essentially) to #20 BYU (3-1) - This result *is* a classic inconsistency, and a pretty big one at 12 slots. The reasons for this ranking include bias (Oklahoma is a major BCS program, BYU is in the Mountain West), mitigation of BYU's win (Bradford got hurt), dismissal of the result due to close score, and most of all, counting more recent results (BYU's loss to FSU) as more important. The latter comes from simply moving teams up and down the rungs week to week, as pollsters in all the polls do.
• #21 Mississippi (2-1) lost 16-10 to unranked South Carolina (3-1) - Voters are assuming that the Gamecocks' win is a fluke, and that the teams will re-order themselves soon enough. That must be what they were assuming a few weeks ago when undefeated Houston was behind victim Oklahoma State. Now that Houston beat Texas Tech, they've grudgingly put the Cougars ahead of the Cowboys. But South Carolina doesn't get the benefit of the doubt, despite only losing to #18 Georgia 41-37.
• #20 BYU (3-1) lost to FSU; unranked South Florida (4-0) beat FSU - This is getting into the transitive property, which often fails in predicting future winners but should be looked at in certain cases when ranking teams—the main case being when an undefeated team is involved. If BYU can lose to FSU 52-38 at home, and undefeated USF can beat FSU 17-7 on the road, shouldn't South Florida be ranked ahead of the Cougars? I would think so. They aren't, though, since USF wasn't in the poll last week and pollsters are reluctant to put them in after Matt Grothe was lost for the season, thinking they won't last; BYU's win over Oklahoma keeps them in the poll; and nobody likes the Big East this year.

These kinds of inconsistencies are exactly the type of thing I do my best to avoid when making the Sportsratings subjective Top 25. The order of teams may vary quite a bit from what you see in the other polls (especially early on), but they won't violate the principles I've noted above, unless it's basically unavoidable (Team A beats Team B beats Team C beats Team A, for example).

Ultimately this all doesn't matter too much since the polls tend to reorganize pretty well by the time bowl games are picked, but fans are annoyed when they beat a team only to see that team still ranked ahead of them if the records are comparable. Everyone has biases, and only through the use of some sound principles can we be sure we aren't favoring certain teams for the wrong reason—usually laziness.

SportsRatings Subjective Top 25 - week 4: Top Three, Then What?

The mantra from the AP pollsters this week was clear: who in the hell are we going to put #4? We had the same problem here at SportsRatings.

#1 Florida, #2 Texas, and #3 Alabama are a clear consensus. After that, it's hard to find a team that deserves to be in the top ten; the teams either have a loss or struggled so much on Saturday that they nearly have one. Or, they were Boise State, whom the rules state cannot be ranked very high, it seems. The AP found their own solution; here is ours. SportsRatings had some jockeying to do, too, on such an odd week.

Iowa took the #4 spot after beating Penn State soundly in Happy Valley. The Hawkeyes launched back into to AP poll for this win, but since they were #8 here last week they zoom up four spots. They're the only team that has two top 25 wins (since Arizona is in our rankings). Boise State's win over Oregon is back to looking impressive again all of a sudden and they round out the top five.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week four (thru 9/26/2009)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Florida	4-0
2	2	Texas	4-0	w TTech34-24
3	3	Alabama	4-0	w=VTech34-24
8	4	Iowa	4-0	w@PennSt 21-10,Arizona 27-17
7	5	Boise St	4-0	wOregon19-8
12	6	Houston	3-0	w@OKstate 45-35,TTech29-28
11	7	TCU	3-0
--	8	Virginia Tech	3-1	L=Alabama34-24;wMiami31-7
6	9	Penn State	3-1	L Iowa 21-10
17	10	Oklahoma St	3-1	L Houston 45-35;wGA 24-10
--	11	South Florida	4-0	w@FSU 17-7
9	12	Miami	2-1	L@VT31-7;wGT33-16,@FSU 38-34
15	13	BYU	3-1	L FSU 54-28;w@OK 14-13
16	14	Oklahoma	2-1	L BYU 14-13
18	15	LSU	4-0	w@Wash31-23
19	16	Michigan	4-0
20	17	Arizona	3-1	L@Iowa 27-17;wCMich19-6
21	18	Kansas	4-0
--	19	Georgia	3-1	L@OKst 24-10;wSCaro41-37
--	20	S. Carolina	3-1	L@Georgia 41-37;wMiss 16-10
4	21	Mississippi	2-1	L@SCaro 16-10
22	22	C Michigan	3-1	L@Arizona19-6
24	23	Southern Cal	3-1	L@Wash 16-13;w@OSU18-15
25	24	Ohio State	3-1	L USC18-15
--	25t	Oregon	3-1	L@Boise19-8;wCal42-3
--	25t	Georgia Tech	3-1	L@Miami 33-16;wUNC 24-7
		out:
5	--	California	3-1	L@Oregon42-3
10	--	N. Carolina	3-1	L@GTech 24-7
14	--	Florida St	2-2	L Mia38-34,USF17-7;w@BYU54-28
13	--	Texas Tech	2-2	L@Tex34-24,@Hou29-28
23	--	Washington	2-2	L@Stan34-14,LSU31-23;wUSC16-13

Houston knocked Texas Tech out of the rankings, edging them by a point, but a win's a win and the Cougars are 4-0. TCU edged Clemson, clearing one of its toughest hurdles toward a BCS-buster season, giving non-BCS teams three of the top seven.

Virginia Tech went from playing like a borderline top 25 team to looking like a top ten team in beating Miami, and they rocket back into the top 25 all the way at #8. Yes, this is an odd week.

Penn State exploits the lack of quality teams at the top and only slides to #9. though they could reasonably be dropped to #20. We're giving them the benefit of the doubt for now. Oklahoma State benefits from Georgia's re-entry and jumps to #10.

South Florida was 3-0 and unranked last week and their season looked over after losing Matt Groethe. But they handled Florida State more easily than Miami did, so we put them at #11; the Hurricanes still have a good résumé so far at #12 and stay ahead of both BYU and #14 Oklahoma, at least until next week when they face the Sooners.

LSU and Michigan both missed a great opportunity to make a big move in the rankings by nearly losing. One play here or there and both would be 3-1 instead of 4-0. With no big wins on their slate they move up only moderately, followed by Arizona and Kansas.

South Carolina's win over Mississippi caused a big problem. Both having one loss, it required me to put the Gamecocks ahead of the Rebels, necessitating a big drop from #4. But Georgia also has but one loss and a win over South Carolina. So they had to be in, also. Meanwhile Oregon (HUGE winner over Cal) and Georgia Tech (beat #10 UNC, lost only to Miami) demanded recognition as well. Dumping the 2-2 teams (FSU, Texas Tech, and Washington) was an easy decision, but which of the upset victims should be kept, and which of the winners should get it?

Ultimately I decided that keeping Mississippi, a 16-10 loser, made more sense than holding on to Cal, a 42-3 loser. I couldn't keep North Carolina without having Georgia Tech ahead of them, and Oregon was even more deserving than the Yellow Jackets, so UNC had to drop out. Using a bit of a cheat and having a tie at #25, I allowed Oregon and Georgia Tech to share the spot. Washington's victor, Stanford, lost themselves to 2-2 Wake Forest and was more easily ignored. That leaves USC as one of only two teams with a loss to a non-top 25 teams. They and Ohio State moved up a notch while Central Michigan, who has never been in the AP top 25, remains at #22 here.

Urban Meyer an idiot for playing Tebow too long

Urban Meyer made it clear before the game: no pansies allowed.

Asked if he would hold players with the flu out of Saturday's game with Kentucky, he said "absolutely not" and that it would be "one of the major errors in coaching history" if he did so.

It's now looking like one of the season's major blunders to leave an obviously ailing Tim Tebow in the game when the outcome was already decided.

Not that playing Tebow in the first place was wrong. He clearly wasn't suffering on the field and wanted to play. Tebow wasn't listed among those with swine flu, even though he took the same plane as those with the ailment. Tebow had a "respiratory illness" of undisclosed nature. But Florida took a 31-0 lead in the first quarter, and that should have been enough for Meyer. Especially since backup Johnathan Brantley needs experience for next year, and Meyer had talked about ways to lessen the burden on Tebow. What better way than to let an obviously sick player get some rest after doing his job?

Apparently that isn't in tough-guy Meyer's philosophy any more. "Got to get better and go play," he said about the sick players. "You go as hard as you can."

It's that kind of attitude that has college players dying in fall camp almost every year. The idea that players are slacking and have to be kicked into shape is popular among coaching because, in a lot of cases, it's true. Coaches are there to push players to their maximum performance, and if it happens to be in the heat of summer, how are they to know that it's because of heat stroke? But because they can't know, they shouldn't assume there isn't a real problem.

Meyer's attitude didn't cause Tebow's injury, but it may have blinded him to doing what he should have done: be very conservative with Tebow. Getting him out on the field was the right move, but getting him off the field soon would have been even better; it was well known before the game that Kentucky was an overmatched foe with or without Tebow's presence. Although he could just as easily have been hurt in the first quarter, there was no reason to play him more than was necessary, and 31-0 and a full quarter of playing was the perfect time to pull him.

Now after Tebow suffered a proven concussion and hospital stay, how will Meyer approach his recovery? With the same cavalier attitude he took toward sick players before? Is Tebow expected to "get better and play" and "go as hard as he can" next week against LSU?

For Tebow's sake, let's hope Meyer is listening to the team's doctors and if Tebow needs to sit, he should sit. Florida should be able to beat LSU with its defense alone, and the rest of the offense is no slouch. If they can't, then so be it; even one loss won't prevent Florida from being in the national championship as we saw last year, especially if it comes in a game Tebow doesn't play. But if he's hurt again it could cost the Gators a lot, and perhaps Tebow even more. There's no certain way to avoid injury in football but taking a conservative approach to the health of your players is not the bad thing that Meyer paints it to be.

Week 4 preview, odds, & predictions: Iowa at Penn State is Game of the Week

Week 4 looks pretty good, here are the best games:

1. Game of the Week:
   #8 Iowa (3-0) at #6 Penn State (3-0)
   Vegas Line/Spread: Penn State by 10
   Analysis: This is a huge game in the Big Ten between the teams I ranked the top two in the conference heading into the season. Iowa has a tougher conference schedule, facing Michigan State and Ohio State on the road, so if they want to have a chance to get to the Rose Bowl they'll need this one. The Hawkeyes fell out of the AP top 25 early but have looked good since, especially on defense, and have beaten the Lions 6 of the last 7 times (which seems to be the stat of the week). Penn State really hasn't been very impressive except for defense, which makes me think this will be a very low-scoring game. The Vegas line (10 points) seems excessive to me, just like Notre Dame by 10 over Michigan State appeared to be too much. I could see Iowa winning this won easily if they can contain Clark, but they'll have to score, too, and they've had some issues on offense. Just like Texas and Florida, Penn State will have its hands full in its "revenge" game.
   Prediction: Penn State 14, Iowa 13
    
2. Texas Game of the Week:
   #13 Texas Tech (2-1) at #12 Houston (2-0)
   Vegas Line/Spread: Houston by 1 1/2
   Analysis: Another game featuring a team ranked by SportsRatings but not the AP. Texas Tech gave the Longhorns a good run last week only to fall. Now they face the upstart Cougars who beat Oklahoma State in week two. This should be an offensive explosion between two teams that can't get enough of the forward pass. Houston has two big advantages: the home field, and Case Keenum's experience relative to Taylor Potts'. Texas Tech has the advantage on defense, losing fewer starters from a much better unit last year than Houston's. This game could go either way; I don't think we really know enough about either team yet.
   Prediction: Houston 40, Texas Tech 35
    
3. #9 Miami (2-0) at Virginia Tech (2-1)
   Vegas Line/Spread: Miami by 2 1/2
   Analysis: After just two weeks the nation is declaring the Hurricanes to be "back." Though change one last-second play and they might not be in the top 25, let alone the top 10. Truth is this team still has shortcomings and is capable of giving up huge plays on defense. But for this game the more important point is that Virginia Tech is even more overrated; they are a borderline top 25 team at best.
   Prediction: Miami 29, Virginia Tech 21
    
4. #11 TCU (2-0) at Clemson (2-1)
   Vegas Line/Spread: Clemson by 2 1/2
   Analysis: Many might be surprised that Clemson is favored in this game, but it's a crucial one for TCU's BCS-buster chances, and I judged it the key game of TCU's season, reasoning that they should beat Utah and BYU in conference play. That last prospect was arguable before last week when both those teams fell; now Clemson is the team that could ruin the Frogs' season. I had this game as a pre-season tossup, giving Clemson a 49% chance of winning; now after seeing TCU's struggles on offense I might give the Tigers the home win. This is where TCU has to prove themselves worthy, and where Clemson might prove they're a top 25 team.
   Prediction: Clemson 24, TCU 14
    
5. #23 Washington (2-1) at Stanford (2-1)
   Vegas Line/spread: Stanford by 7
   Analysis: No one will be impressed with the winner of this game, unfortunately. If Stanford wins, they only beat Washington, a team that went 0-12 last year. If the Huskies win, well, no one seems to respect Stanford that much. But I think the winner of this game should be taken seriously as a legit top 25 team. If Washington can start 3-1 with a win over USC and just a loss to LSU, then last year's woes should be disregarded for the most part. And Stanford is a few bad calls from being undefeated themselves.
   Prediction: Stanford 28, Washington 27

SportsRatings Subjective Top 25 - week three: USC falls

It was an unimpressive weekend for last week's top three teams, to say the least!

#1 Florida and #2 Texas both won, but weren't that impressive. The Gators dispatched Tennessee but not the way a dominant, all-time-best college football team would have. It was somewhat reminiscent of their home win over Miami from last year. Texas beat Texas Tech but didn't get the type of revenge they wanted; instead the 34-24 win either made the Longhorns look less impressive, or the Red Raiders more legit. But both teams won, which is more than we can say for ex-#3 Southern Cal. More on that in a bit. First, the rest of the top ten.

Alabama, Mississippi, and California all move up a spot after winning as expected. Penn State and Boise State take advantage of three losses within the top ten to move up three spots each, though neither really looked like a top ten team in their last game.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week three 2009 (thru 9/19/2009)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Florida	3-0
2	2	Texas	3-0	w TxTech 34-24
4	3	Alabama	3-0
5	4	Mississippi	2-0
6	5	California	3-0
9	6	Penn State	3-0
10	7	Boise St	3-0
12	8	Iowa	3-0	w Arizona 27-17
18	9	Miami	2-0	w@FSU 38-34;w GT 33-17
13	10	North Carolina	3-0
14	11	TCU	2-0
15	12	Houston	2-0	w@OKstate 45-35
7	13	Texas Tech	2-1	L@Texas 34-24
25	14	Florida St	2-1	L Miami 38-34;w@BYU 54-28
11	15	BYU	2-1	L FSU 54-28;w@OK 14-13
16	16	Oklahoma	2-1	L BYU 14-13
17	17	Oklahoma St	2-1	L Houston 45-35
21	18	LSU	3-0	w@Wash 31-23
20	19	Michigan	3-0
8	20	Arizona	2-1	L@Iowa 27-17;w CMich19-6
22	21	Kansas	3-0
23	22	C Michigan	2-1	L@Arizona19-6
--	23	Washington	2-1	L LSU 31-23;w USC 16-13
3	24	Southern Cal	2-1	L@Wash16-13;w@OSU18-15
24	25	Ohio State	2-1	L USC18-15
		Out:
19	--	Georgia Tech	2-1	L@Miami 33-17

Iowa was one of the big winners this week, beating former #8 Arizona. The Hawkeyes fell out of the AP top 25 early and Arizona hasn't been in it, but both teams began near the SportsRatings top ten. Miami is the biggest mover, jumping from #18 to #9 after beating #19 Georgia Tech and getting a big boost from FSU's win over BYU.

That FSU win—which jumps the Seminoles to #14 from #25— creates a clear pecking order among several major teams: Miami, #14 Florida State, #15 BYU, and #16 Oklahoma. The Sooners play Miami in a few weeks which will either reinforce that order or create a circle of logic that I'll just base on point spreads; right now only FSU's win is significant.

North Carolina, TCU, and Houston all move up due to other teams' losses, while Houston's victim Oklahoma State is stalled at #17. Texas Tech falls from #7 to #13; they looked like a top 25 team against the Longhorns on the road, and face Houston next weekend.

Michigan, Kansas, and Central Michigan inch up, while Arizona drops to #20. The Wildcats have a win over the Chippawas that keep them in the rankings, but they have yet to prove themselves worthy of my high pre-season ranking.

LSU moves up three spots to #18; suddenly their narrow win over Washington doesn't look quite as lame! USC falls all the way to #24, just above Ohio State. The Washington Huskies move into the rankings at #23. After all, both they and USC are 2-1, and the Huskies beat the Trojans, so why should the Trojans be ranked ahead of them? The AP poll can't do this, of course, as they have Ohio State near the top ten, meaning USC will stay in their top 10 despite this humbling loss. But I simply drop the Buckeyes one spot and preserve the proper order. There are still no teams in the top 25 with a loss outside the rankings, which is good.

Georgia Tech falls out after losing to Miami; but for the USC upset they would have remained in at #25, and most likely they will end up a top 25 team rather than Washington. But ranking for the here-and-now, the Huskies deserve the recognition, and if you didn't know they'd gone 0-12 last year, doesn't a win over USC and a close loss to LSU look pretty good?

Week 3 Power Rating: Miami #1, FSU #2

Is this 2009? or 1989?

With Miami #1 and Florida State #2, it looks like a throwback to the late 80s and early 90s when these teams dominated the college football scene for a solid decade. Miami's solid win over Georgia Tech combined with FSU's 54-28 upset of BYU pushed these teams to the top of the ratings, with the Hurricanes' win over the Seminoles giving them the nod at #1. Still very early, this is just the first look at an organized pecking order for the 2009 season, but it's an interesting one.

I'm still referring to the Cross-division power rating which uses all teams, since the I-A vs. I-AA games are crucial for having enough data to go by. Here are the top 25 teams as of Saturday:

  #  Team                         rec   Rating  Offense[rnk]  Defense[rnk]
  1. Miami FL                     2-0    91.69   68.94 [  8]  -22.74 [  1]
  2. Florida St                   2-1    84.92   75.79 [  1]   -9.12 [ 22]
  3. Cincinnati                   3-0    82.04   74.18 [  3]   -7.86 [ 27]
  4. Alabama                      3-0    81.33   68.48 [  9]  -12.85 [ 10]
  5. Mississippi                  2-0    80.98   74.72 [  2]   -6.26 [ 36]
  6. Georgia Tech                 2-1    78.47   71.96 [  5]   -6.50 [ 33]
  7. Virginia Tech                2-1    75.28   65.31 [ 12]   -9.97 [ 20]
  8. Northern Iowa                2-1    74.33   60.36 [ 18]  -13.96 [  7]
  9. Nebraska                     2-1    71.50   51.04 [ 53]  -20.46 [  2]
 10. Florida                      3-0    71.39   61.30 [ 16]  -10.09 [ 18]
 11. California                   3-0    70.53   71.24 [  6]    0.70 [ 68]
 12. Clemson                      2-1    70.49   54.91 [ 31]  -15.58 [  5]
 13. Oklahoma                     2-1    70.36   52.94 [ 39]  -17.42 [  4]
 14. Iowa                         3-0    69.47   58.43 [ 20]  -11.04 [ 13]
 15. Jacksonville St              1-2    68.51   50.70 [ 56]  -17.81 [  3]
 16. Southern Cal                 2-1    67.94   54.48 [ 35]  -13.46 [  8]
 17. Texas                        3-0    66.88   66.44 [ 10]   -0.43 [ 61]
 18. LSU                          3-0    66.05   55.78 [ 29]  -10.26 [ 16]
 19. Tennessee                    1-2    65.13   55.62 [ 30]   -9.51 [ 21]
 20. Brigham Young                2-1    64.85   60.77 [ 17]   -4.08 [ 41]
 21. Kansas                       3-0    64.71   62.13 [ 15]   -2.57 [ 49]
 22. Ohio State                   2-1    63.03   49.93 [ 61]  -13.10 [  9]
 23. UCLA                         3-0    62.83   51.22 [ 50]  -11.60 [ 11]
 24. Boise St                     3-0    61.67   46.58 [100]  -15.09 [  6]
 25. Auburn                       3-0    61.54   65.24 [ 13]    3.69 [ 89]
 26. Washington                   2-1    61.36   59.19 [ 19]   -2.17 [ 52]

Cincinnati, Alabama, and Mississippi round out the early top five due to their high victory margins; #7 Virginia Tech lost only to #4 Alabama, and beat #9 Nebraska. Florida, the consensus pre-season and current #1, ranks only #10 after an unimpressive performance against Tennessee, but it was enough to push the 1-2 Volunteers up to #19 (even ahead of UCLA, who beat them).

BYU's big loss dropped them below Oklahoma, who they beat in week one. Another big upset, Washington's win over Southern Cal, has the Trojans at #16 and the Huskies up to #26, with Ohio State (who lost to USC) in between.

A couple of FCS (I-AA) teams are currently in the top 25.First Northern Iowa sits at #8; they lost to Iowa in Iowa City by a single point, then beat two I-AA foes by a combined 96-7. The Panthers could very well be the best team in the FCS this year, as their defense is likely a true top 25 defense in any division based on these early games. Jacksonville State is at #15 despite being 1-2 (remember, winning and losing isn't considered in this score-margin-based power rating). The Gamecocks lost at Florida State just 19-9 a week after falling to Georgia Tech 37-17. Then on Saturday they won 45-13 against 2-1 Alabama A&M. Again it's their defense that looks to be their strong suit, and the offense is led by ex-LSU QB Ryan Perrilloux. I-AA teams almost never finish in the top 25 in power ratings and with more games and information both these teams will slide, but they're interesting cases and both teams should be in the title hunt come playoff time.

Just for comparison's sake, here are the top ten teams from (roughly) the same time in 2008:

  1. Monmouth IL                  2-0    82.72   56.06 [ 25]  -26.66 [  1]
  2. Kansas St                    2-0    70.50   62.88 [ 10]   -7.62 [ 15]
  3. Loras                        1-1    69.41   65.18 [  7]   -4.23 [ 26]
  4. Oklahoma                     3-0    69.09   76.25 [  1]    7.16 [ 97]
  5. Southern Cal                 2-0    68.87   62.31 [ 11]   -6.55 [ 18]
  6. Penn State                   3-0    66.86   67.38 [  4]    0.51 [ 44]
  7. Florida                      2-0    63.40   63.94 [  9]    0.53 [ 45]
  8. Florida St                   2-0    63.00   69.35 [  2]    6.34 [ 86]
  9. LSU                          2-0    62.77   49.17 [ 52]  -13.59 [  6]
 10. TCU                          3-0    62.08   48.91 [ 53]  -13.17 [  7]

Obviously the top teams were flukes, but the 2008 season wasn't as far along in week three last year (it was September 13th, 2008). This year the non-division I-A schedule started earlier and almost all I-A teams have played three games. But even at this point in 2008, five of the teams in the top ten in week three finished in the top ten at the end of the season. By week four, seven of the ten were present in the top ten. So look at the 2009 list (substitute Cal for UNI)—which of the top ten will still be there come January? And which teams outside the top ten will move in?

One More Time: Washington beats USC, final score: 16-13

Once again, a dominant USC Trojan team has inexplicably lost to a heavy underdog in Pac-10 play. The Washington Huskies, winless last year at 0-12, took advantage of several USC turnovers and stayed in the game the whole way, winning on a field goal with 7 seconds left.

Jake Locker completed a clutch pass from the 35 to move the Huskies into field goal position inside the ten; two plays later kicker Erik Folk hit a 22 yarder to make it 16-13 with three seconds left. USC couldn't pull off a miracle on the ensuing kickoff and the rest is history—or history repeating itself for the Trojans.

Southern Cal was a 18-20 point favorite today. Each of the last three years the Trojans have blown a conference game in which they were huge favorites over an unranked opponent: last year against Oregon State 27-21 (a 25 point favorite), in 2007 against Stanford 24-23 (41 point favorite), and in 2006 against UCLA and Oregon State, in both games an 11 point favorite. For the second straight year, USC lost coming off a big win against Ohio State

Washington didn't play great offense, but Locker kept them on life support as the defense forced key turnovers, intercepting Aaron Corp in his first start, and recovering fumbles from Stafon Johnson and Stanley Havili, the latter near the Washington 10 yard line in the 3rd quarter.

Week Three Previews, Odds, and Predictions; the five (or seven) best games

Week three should make up for a week two bereft of strong matchups.

1. Game of the Week: #7 Texas Tech (2-0) at #2 Texas (2-0)
   Vegas line/spread: Texas by 17 1/2
   Analysis: It's probably unfair to judge Texas Tech by this game. The Longhorns will be out for revenge in Austin and the result will likely confirm in most people's minds that the Red Raiders are not a top 25 team. I have them ranked very high and regardless of the outcome they'll stay in the top 25. But Taylor Potts is in his third start to Colt McCoy's 1,000th and Tech's two wins didn't suggest they belong in the top ten while Texas rolled (eventually) in both of their victories. The only thing that might keep this one close is the very fact that nothing is expected of the Raiders; they have the element of surprise, and if ULM can score 20 on the Longhorns then they should put up at least that much, right?
   Prediction: Texas 45, Texas Tech 20
    
2. Below-the-Radar Game of the Week: #8 Arizona (2-0) at #12 Iowa (2-0)
   Vegas line/spread: Iowa by 5
   Analysis: A game that's getting less notice than it should. Arizona's win over Central Michigan looked a lot better once the latter upset Michigan State. And Iowa, the fashionable upset pick last week, instead kicked butt at Iowa State. While I don't expect either of these teams to appear in the AP top 10—Arizona has major quarterback issues while Iowa edged I-AA Northern Iowa by the slimmest of slim margins—the winner really should be in the top 25 at 3-0. Since it's in Iowa City I'm sticking with my pre-season pick for the Hawkeyes; the Wildcats will have to sneak up on someone else.
   Prediction: Iowa 27, Arizona 24
    
3. Most Complicating Game of the Week: #25 Florida State (1-1) at #11 BYU (2-0)
   Vegas line/spread: BYU by 7 1/2
   Analysis: If the Seminoles win this one, it potentially wreaks havoc with my subjective (and supposedly logic-based) Top 25. In that case, FSU will be ahead of BYU, who beat Oklahoma. With a Miami loss to Georgia Tech, the Hurricanes will still be ahead of FSU, meaning they'll have to jump the Sooners despite losing. Though I don't have much confidence in Florida State after seeing them struggle to the very end against Jacksonville State while BYU cruised to a second impressive win, I'm sure the football gods will do what they have to to make things difficult for me.
   Prediction: FSU 31, BYU 28
    
4. Best Thursday Night Georgia Tech Game This Week: #19 Georgia Tech (2-0) at #18 Miami (1-0)
   Vegas line/spread: Miami by 5 1/2
   Analysis: The Yellow Jackets beat Jacksonville State 37-17, while Florida State beat the same team just 19-9 on two very late scores. So if we compare Tech and Miami solely via transitive scores against a division I-AA team it doesn't look good for Miami. Normally I wouldn't do that but as noted above, a Miami loss messes up my top 25's continuity, so it has to happen. For real analysis, we could note that Miami looked much better trained against the option so far. Last year's game was devastating to the Miami D; they should do better this year, but the game is still a tossup.
   Prediction: Georgia Tech 27, Miami 24 (OT)
    
5. Throwing a Bone to the AP Poll: Nebraska (2-0) at Virginia Tech (1-1)
   Vegas line/spread: Virginia Tech by 5
   Analysis: These two teams are in the AP top 25 (at #19 and #13) but Virginia Tech started at #25 in ours and fell out after losing to Alabama, while the Cornhuskers weren't close to the top 25 pre-season. The winner of this game has the inside track to making the SportsRatings rankings, but will in our opinion be necessarily overrated in the AP. If Nebraska wins we won't really know what to think of them unless they stay undefeated through the October 17 Texas Tech game, and even then to really prove themselves they'd have to beat Oklahoma on November 7th. Both of those contests are at home, giving Nebraska a chance to have a really good year—if they're actually a good team, which has yet to be seen. Virginia Tech has Miami next week, and Georgia Tech and North Carolina in October, so if they're the real deal they have no shortage of chances to prove it.
   Prediction: Virginia Tech 33, Nebraska 20
    
6. Honorable Mention Top 5 Game: #1 Florida (2-0) vs. Tennessee (1-1)
   Vegas line/spread: Florida by 29 1/2
   Analysis: Tennessee couldn't even make this one interesting by coming in undefeated. The Gators could have gotten overconfident given the spread and expectations, but they'll want to rip Lane Kiffin a new one for dissing Urban Meyer in the pre-season. I assigned Tennessee a 0% chance of winning this game in the pre-season and nothing's changed to give them hope, except perhaps the 3 field goals that Florida has given up so far mean they might not get shut out. Kiffin's mouth ruined any chance for a trap game set up by the Vols' loss to UCLA. Sometimes it's fun just to watch coaches like him get smacked around a bit.
   Prediction: Florida 59, Tennessee 7
    
7. Consolation Prize Game of the Week: Michigan State (1-1) at Notre Dame (1-1)
   Vegas line/spread: Notre Dame by 10
   Analysis: Both of these teams suffered unfortunate losses, and one of them is going to be stuck at 1-2 to start the year. Both of them could still have great seasons but it will be demoralizing for the loser. One question: why on earth is the line so high? I know it's at Notre Dame but I consider this a neutral-field toss-up. Maybe the Irish are finally ready to break the string of losses to MSU at home? Maybe the Irish will feel they're at a "crossroads" for the season, while the Spartans will be in a funk. Pre-season I picked this as one of Notre Dame's two losses, but I guess mentally the Irish will be served well by a home game while Michigan State's mentality has to be negative. Still I'm taking the Spartans against the spread. When the line seems out of whack, though, that's when games tend to fall on the other side of expectations...Vegas seems to be hinting at an Irish blowout win.
   Prediction: Notre Dame 32, Michigan State 27

SportsRatings Subjective Top 25 - week two

The SportsRatings subjective Top 25 for week two.

So far #1 Florida and #2 Texas haven't done anything to hurt themselves, and USC's win over Ohio State keeps them lodged at #3. Alabama took its time dispatching FIU and Mississippi didn't play, while Cal has been dominant in its two games.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week two 2009 (thru 9/13/2009)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Florida	2-0
2	2	Texas	2-0
3	3	Southern Cal	2-0	w@OhioSt18-15
4	4	Alabama	2-0
5	5	Mississippi	1-0
6	6	California	2-0
8	7	Texas Tech	2-0
10	8	Arizona	2-0	w CMich 19-6
9	9	Penn State	2-0
11	10	Boise St	2-0
16	11	BYU	2-0	w@Oklahoma 14-13
12	12	Iowa	2-0
13	13	North Carolina	2-0
14	14	TCU	1-0
--	15	Houston	2-0	w@OKstate 45-35
18	16	Oklahoma	1-1	L BYU 14-13
7	17	Oklahoma St	1-1	L Houston 45-35
20	18	Miami	1-0	w@FSU 38-34
21	19	Georgia Tech	2-0
--	20	Michigan	2-0	w@ND38-34
23	21	LSU	2-0
24	22	Kansas	2-0
--	23	C Michigan	1-1	L@AZ 19-6;w@MSU 29-27
22	24	Ohio State	1-1	L USC18-15
25	25	Florida St	1-1	L Miami 38-34
		Out:
17	--	Notre Dame	1-1	L@Michigan 38-34
19	--	Michigan St	1-1	L CMich 29-27
15	--	Stanford	1-1	L@Wake 24-17

Oklahoma State's loss allows some re-shuffling in the top 10. Texas Tech moves up a notch to #7; the Red Raiders aren't in the AP top 25 and face Texas in Austin this week, so either they make a big AP debut or won't be in the poll for some time. At #8 I have Arizona jump Penn State; the Lions beat Syracuse just 28-7 and the Wildcats' win over Central Michigan gained value over the weekend. They play at #12 Iowa this weekend; the winner gets a top ten slot (in our rankings) and moves closer to a spot in the AP top 25.

Boise State moves into the top ten and BYU follows them at #11; both have played two strong games and have leapt TCU as the top BCS-busters. But watch out for #15 Houston,  coming off a win over Oklahoma State. Unlike the AP, I actually rank the Cougars higher than the Cowboys after beating them on the road. UNC holds at #13 after their 2nd unimpressive win.

Oklahoma and Oklahoma State at #16 and #17 are the first teams with losses, both to top 25 foes. At this point no teams in the top 25 have lost outside the rankings. With #18 Miami playing #19 Georgia Tech and #25 Florida State playing #11 BYU there could be a mess in this area next week: if FSU and Georgia Tech win, the pecking order will be Tech, Miami, FSU, BYU, Oklahoma, and some illogical moves will need to be made to preserve that.

Michigan jumps into the fray at #20 ahead of LSU and Kansas, who each move up two spots. Central Michigan joins them at #23 after beating Michigan State. Two other 1-1 teams round out the top 25: Ohio State falls two spots for a decent performance against USC, and Florida State remains stuck at #25 after a lackluster game against Jacksonville State.

Notre Dame falls out after losing to Michigan, and they're going to have a hard time getting back in. Beating Michigan State won't do it, as the Spartans fell out, too. And since Stanford (who choked away a win against Wake Forest) has dropped out, the only current top 25 team remaining on the Irish's schedule is USC.

Week 2 Power Rating: FBS/FCS contests muddle results

After two weeks of action the power ratings aren't as random as they are (of course) after one game; already some reasonable ordering is starting to take place. But without pre-conceived notions about the teams or use of information left over from last year, the numbers guide the algorithm in some interesting directions.

I've only updated the cross-division power rating so far; most I-A (FBS) teams have played a I-AA (FBS) team so the I-A only rating isn't nearly as interesting. Here are the top 25 teams from the all-division power rating (click here for the full list).

  #  Team                         rec   Rating  Offense[rnk]  Defense[rnk]
  1. Texas                        2-0   114.49  105.07 [  1]   -9.41 [ 34]
  2. Boise St                     2-0   104.01   68.31 [ 25]  -35.69 [  4]
  3. California                   2-0   101.97   75.84 [ 12]  -26.12 [  9]
  4. Kentucky                     1-0   100.89   63.07 [ 41]  -37.81 [  3]
  5. Purdue                       1-1    96.80   88.21 [  6]   -8.58 [ 38]
  6. Oregon                       1-1    95.86   72.32 [ 16]  -23.54 [ 13]
  7. Northern Iowa                1-1    83.71   69.85 [ 20]  -13.85 [ 27]
  8. Iowa                         2-0    81.35   57.38 [ 64]  -23.96 [ 11]
  9. Wyoming                      1-1    80.53   45.14 [122]  -35.39 [  5]
 10. Cincinnati                   2-0    80.47   62.14 [ 46]  -18.33 [ 21]
 11. Toledo                       1-1    78.67   68.22 [ 26]  -10.44 [ 33]
 12. LSU                          2-0    78.50   28.91 [292]  -49.58 [  2]
 13. Louisiana-Monroe             1-1    78.37   58.06 [ 61]  -20.31 [ 20]
 14. Pittsburgh                   2-0    77.82   65.47 [ 33]  -12.35 [ 30]
 15. Weber St                     0-2    76.43   86.04 [  8]    9.60 [128]
 16. Wisconsin                    2-0    75.85   52.18 [ 87]  -23.67 [ 12]
 17. UCLA                         2-0    75.62   53.22 [ 79]  -22.39 [ 15]
 18. Fresno St                    1-1    75.30   82.08 [  9]    6.78 [109]
 19. Arizona                      2-0    74.85   53.74 [ 74]  -21.10 [ 18]
 20. Colorado St                  2-0    74.48   40.12 [165]  -34.36 [  6]
 21. Houston                      2-0    74.33   90.95 [  4]   16.62 [198]
 22. Northern Illinois            1-1    71.20   73.55 [ 13]    2.34 [ 77]
 23. Tennessee                    1-1    68.28   62.91 [ 43]   -5.36 [ 46]
 24. Washington                   1-1    67.59   98.32 [  3]   30.73 [428]
 25. Vanderbilt                   1-1    67.45   87.26 [  7]   19.81 [245]

Texas at #1 is not so unreasonable; they're at the top because they won by a lot of points (70 points over 2 games) and more importantly, the teams they beat are 1-1. If Wyoming and ULM had lost their other game, the Longhorns might be #100 rather than #1. In fact this is what happened to Florida, who sits at #75 because their wins over Charleston Southern and Troy, both 0-2, don't push them up. But since Wyoming beat Weber State and ULM beat Texas Southern 58-0, all three teams are in the top 25. Even Weber State at 0-2 is #15. Why? Because they only lost to Wyoming 28-22, of course! Their other game is a 24-23 road loss to #20 Colorado State. And why is Colorado State #20? Mostly for beating Weber State. With just two games to go by every bit of circular logic applies, sending teams up or down.

Boise State is #2, with wins over #6 Oregon and a 48-0 win over Miami of Ohio. #4 Kentucky played one game, beating the same Miami team 42-0, so they rank just a bit behind the Broncos. Purdue is at #5 despite losing to the Ducks; as it was a 2 point road loss they're covered by home field advantage. The Boilermakers also beat Toledo (#11), who remains high due to their win over Colorado (#29 despite their 0-2 record).

#7 and #8 are interesting. In week one Iowa escaped with a 17-16 home win over Northern Iowa. The next week both teams dominated, the Hawkeyes beating Iowa State on the road 35-3 and UNI pasting South Dakota 66-7. Add to that the fact that both of those victims are 1-1, with the Cyclones having dominated North Dakota State 34-17 and South Dakota having destroyed William Penn 52-0, and it's easier to see why the algorithm is high on these teams, for now. The correction for home field advantage puts UNI on top.

California and Cincinnati are ranked high almost solely for margin of victory. The Bears have defeated their two opponents 111-20 and the Bearcats have won 117-18. It doesn't hurt that all four of their victims are 1-1. Cincinnati's foes did particularly well, with Rutgers beating Howard 45-7 and SE Missouri beating Quincy 72-3. Yet after the algorithm churns away the Bears are #3 and the Bearcats #10.

It's interesting that even this early I-A teams are dominating the top 25; this isn't the case in week one. But with I-A teams winning the overwhelming majority of cross-division matchups it makes sense. Over the next few weeks new information will correct the obvious deficiencies in the ratings. At this time teams that have played a tough schedule generally sit in the middle of the ranks, as they may have only won by 10 points rather than 50. But as their opponents grow in stature so too will those wins.

Some examples: USC is #144 and Ohio State #188; Alabama is #154 and Virginia Tech is #216. Michigan is #223 and Notre Dame is #222.  Even by next week all of those teams should be in the top 100 if not the top 25 as more I-A teams play each other and strength of schedule naturally becomes dominant over margin of victory.

Projected AP Poll Week 2 (9/13)

Week Two of this season's experiment: the Projected AP Top 25. Using an algorithm that may be modified as the season commences, we project the AP Poll before it comes out each week. And, we'll also keep a "running" AP projection that uses the continuous results rather than starting from the previous week's poll.

Here is this week's projection, starting from last week's actual poll. The "points" column shows the results of these manipulations; lower is better.

Projected AP Top 25 for September 13, 2009
lw	#	Team	record	pts	weekend results
1	1.	Florida	2-0	-0.43	w Troy 56-6
2	2.	Texas	2-0	1.11	w @Wyoming 41-10
3	3.	USC	2-0	1.82	w @#8 Ohio St. 18-15
5	4.	Alabama	2-0	3.26	w Florida Intl 40-14
6	5.	Mississippi	1-0	5.50	did not play
7	6.	Penn State	2-0	6.40	w Syracuse 28-7
9	7.	BYU	2-0	7.54	w @Tulane 54-3
10	8.	California	2-0	9.01	w E Wash 59-7
8	9.	Ohio State	1-1	9.65	L #3 USC 18-15
11	10.	LSU	2-0	10.60	w Vanderbilt 23-9
12	11.	Boise State	2-0	10.63	w Miami OH 48-0
13	12.	Oklahoma	1-1	11.78	w Idaho St 64-0
14	13.	Virg. Tech	1-1	12.90	w Marshall 52-10
--	14.	Houston	2-0	14.71	w @#5 OK State 45-35
15	15.	Georgia Tech	2-0	14.91	w Clemson 30-27
16	16.	TCU	1-0	15.54	w @Virginia 30-14
17	17.	Utah	2-0	16.71	w @ San Jose St. 24-14
19	18.	UNC	2-0	18.94	w @UConn 12-10
5	19.	Oklahoma St.	1-1	19.08	L Houston 45-35
20	20.	Miami FL	1-0	19.50	did not play
21	21.	Georgia	1-1	20.90	w South Carolina 41-37
22	22.	Nebraska	2-0	21.17	w Arkansas St. 38-9
--	23.	Michigan	2-0	21.39	w #18 Notre Dame 38-34
23	24.	Cincinnati	2-0	21.59	w SE Missouri 70-3
24	25.	Kansas	2-0	23.23	w @UTEP 34-7
		Out:
25	--	Missouri	2-0	24.80	w Bowling Green 27-20
18	--	Notre Dame	1-1	31.35	L @Michigan 38-34

Ohio State will probably only fall one spot for losing a close game to USC; the other question is whether BYU will jump Penn State due to the Lions' bland win over lowly Syracuse combined with BYU's dominant victory. I'd say there's a good chance since Penn State won't fall any spots either way.

Likewise Boise State will probably pass LSU and land in the #10 spot; in this projection they're a sliver away from doing so. Houston probably comes in a little high here, but none of the next three teams were electrifying this weekend. I'd guess they come in at 16, still ahead of Utah but probably behind TCU. 

Oklahoma State probably will fall only to #18. North Carolina only won by 2 points and it keeps the Cowboys three spots ahead of Georgia, whom they beat just last week.

Cincinnati won by 67 points so I don't think they'll be falling any spots. Michigan will enter at #24 instead, pushing Kansas down a notch and Missouri (who won by just 7 over Bowling Green) out of the poll. There isn't room for Notre Dame to stay in, either.

Actual Results:
Surprisingly, Penn State moved into a tie at #5 with Mississippi. Ohio State fell three spots to #11, and Boise State did not surpass LSU after all so the projection was right on that one—it was very close, too (6 points separate them in the AP poll). Oklahoma State dropped only to #16 while Houston came in at #21, leaving a clear discrepancy in the poll.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati jumped 6 spots to #17, giving them a lot of credit for blowing out a I-AA team. Utah dropped a spot and Georgia dropped two, while Nebraska rose 3 spots and Kansas 2. North Carolina plunged five spots for their narrow road win, and Michigan debuted at #25.

I'm going to figure out the cumulative poll (starting with last week's projected results) and post it soon.

Week Two Preview/Odds/Predictions: Are there no good games this weekend?

After a surprisingly good week one, this is the hangover. Given the 12-week schedule's propensity for games against I-AA teams, as well as other overmatched opponents, we got a break last week. Not only were there quite a few "real" games, but several games against FCS teams were close and some of the more boring matchups turned into good games.

This week, though, there's little in terms of marquee action, and some barrel-scraping has to be done to make a top five:

1. #3 USC (1-0) at #22 Ohio State (1-0)
   Vegas line/spread: USC by 7
   This is the big game? After what Ohio State did last week this matchup isn't as anticipated. Not to say that a lot of people were putting it on their calendars before that. I had the Buckeyes pretty low in the SportsRatings pre-season rankings and they did nothing to make me think they're a top ten team. But of course this game is high on tradition; Ohio State has one of the most intimidating home stadiums in the nation; and with the matchup looking dismal it means the game almost has to exceed expectations. And I'm not talking about Vegas' expectations, I'm talking about Joe Public who assumes another Trojan blowout. Maybe the Buckeyes were looking ahead last week. Maybe USC's true freshman gets a bit rattled in his first road game in front of 100,000 people?
   Prediction: USC 34, Ohio State 20
    
2. #17 Notre Dame (1-0) at Michigan (1-0)
   Vegas line/spread: Notre Dame by 3
   Look at this: both Ohio State and Michigan playing at home the same week and both underdogs. Because there are no other intra-top 25 matchups, this is the 2nd biggest game. Unlike the #1 game, this one grew in stature as both the Irish and Wolverines kicked butt last weekend. I liked what Michigan did but it was against a team with a depleted defense, and Notre Dame's defense did well last week too.
   Prediction: Notre Dame 28, Michigan 17
    
3. Houston (1-0) at #7 Oklahoma State (1-0)
   Vegas line/spread: Oklahoma State by 15
   Already we're scraping for good games. This one features two of the most high-powered offenses in the country. Houston's Case Keenum is likely this year's Graham Harrell in terms of production. Last week the Cougars blitzed I-AA Northwestern State 55-7 in a strong warmup performance. The Cowboys of course dispatched Georgia and should do the same to Houston though it will be another (and more difficult) test for their defense.
   Prediction: Oklahoma State 38, Houston 23
    
4. UCLA (1-0) at Tennessee (1-0)
   Vegas line/spread: Tennessee by 10 1/2
   In 1998 this would have been a critical matchup. These are two teams that I rated very low pre-season, and only one of them gets to start 2-0. Tennessee is looking for revenge for last year's loss and the Volunteers looked good last week while running up the score against Western Kentucky. UCLA looked about as good as I expected, which is not very, while beating San Diego State 33-14.
   Prediction: Tennessee 37, UCLA 23
    
5. Clemson (1-0) at #15 Georgia Tech (1-0)
   Vegas line/spread: Georgia Tech by 5
   Guess I'll throw in the Thursday night game at #5. It is a crucial ACC matchup; of course, every game is important in the ACC since any one win might put a team into the championship game. Clemson just missed my pre-season top 25 and did exactly as expected last week, beating MTSU 37-14. Georgia Tech didn't look great against Jacksonville State, making this game a tossup in my book. Still I'll give it to the Yellow Jackets due to home field.
   Prediction: Georgia Tech 29, Clemson 28

SportsRatings Subjective Top 25 - week one

I've decided to keep doing the subjective (AP style) top 25, using the SportsRatings pre-season top 25 as a starting point. Without further ado here is week one:

SportsRatings Top 25 - week one 2009 (9/8/2009)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Florida	1-0
2	2	Texas	1-0
4	3	Southern Cal	1-0
6	4	Alabama	1-0	w=VTech 34-24
5	5	Mississippi	1-0
7	6	California	1-0
11	7	Oklahoma St	1-0
8	8	Texas Tech	1-0
9	9	Penn State	1-0
10	10	Arizona	1-0
16	11	Boise St	1-0	w Oregon 19-8
12	12	Iowa	1-0
13	13	North Carolina	1-0
14	14	TCU	0-0
15	15	Stanford	1-0
--	16	BYU	1-0	w@Oklahoma 14-13
17	17	Notre Dame	1-0
3	18	Oklahoma	0-1	L BYU 14-13
20	19	Michigan St	1-0
--	20	Miami	1-0	w@FSU 38-34
21	21	Georgia Tech	1-0
22	22	Ohio State	1-0
23	23	LSU	1-0
24	24	Kansas	1-0
18	25	Florida St	0-1	L Miami 38-34
		out:
19	--	Oregon	0-1	L@Boise St. 19-8
25	--	Virginia Tech	0-1	L=Alabama 34-24

The top few are pretty obvious and match the AP poll; I moved Alabama ahead of Mississippi for beating Virginia Tech; the Tide and Rebels were essentially tied for #5 in my pre-season rankings.

Cal moves up a spot to #6 and Oklahoma State jumps to #7 after beating Georgia; the Bulldogs were just outside the top 25 to begin the year.

Boise State beat Oregon, which should be their only challenge this year; I'd say #11 is about right for them at this point. They'll beat up on a lot of bad teams from here on out and will move up very slowly because of weak schedule strength. But right now their résumé is about as good as anyone's.

The teams in the 8-15 range could be overrated but I'll stick with them for now. Texas Tech, Arizona, and Stanford are way higher than anyone else had them pre-season, and Iowa laid an egg against UNI. Time will tell.

Instead of putting BYU in the top ten like the AP does, I dropped Oklahoma more and put the Cougars at a reasonable #16. Neither team looked great and the Sooners will be without Bradford for some time and just lost Jermaine Gresham. More to the point, their offense has clearly lost a lot of punch with the new offensive line.

Notre Dame remains #17; they beat Nevada about right for a #17 team. Miami jumps in at #20 as the next several teams in line (Georgia Tech, Ohio State, LSU) didn't look good at all and don't move up. FSU falls to #25 but stays in; if the game-ending pass were thrown a foot higher they'd still be #18, so I can't justify dumping them.

Oregon does get dumped, as they looked horrific in the first half and no longer have LaGarrette Blount to boot. Virginia Tech slips off the end of the poll as well (they didn't start in my top ten, needless to say).

Despite big moves, Week One AP Top 25 not a reboot

Trevor Matich of ESPN says he's glad the voters 'tore up' the pre-season AP Top 25 and made an entirely new ranking, instead of just "moving teams up and down as they win and lose."

Well I hate to tell you, Trevor, but using a simple mathematical formula based only on the score of the game and last week's rankings, you could have predicted every move in the poll within a few spots. There was nothing out of the ordinary in the rankings this week in a historical sense, except perhaps the voters are showing more of a willingness to drop teams that have close calls yet still win.

Matich's main example is that the voters moved BYU up to #9. In yesterday's projection, I had BYU at #10. I doubted the voters would put them that high, though, thinking there would be some mitigation for the fact that Sam Bradford of Oklahoma was lost in the first half. Instead, the voters put the Cougars at #9 and kept Boise State out of the top ten. They also dropped Oklahoma only to #13 instead of #14. Here's a look at how the first projection fared:

Left columns: previous rank & projected rank; actual rank to the right

1   1. Florida        1
2   2. Texas          2
4   3. USC            3
5   4. Alabama        4
6   5. Ohio St.       8 (down 3)
9   6. Oklahoma St.   5 (up 1)
8   7. Mississippi    6 (up 1)
9   8. Penn St.       7 (up 1)
14  9. Boise St.     12 (down 3)
20 10. BYU            9 (up 1)
11 11. LSU           11
12 12. California    10 (up 2)
7  13. Virginia Tech 14 (down 1)
3  14. Oklahoma      13 (up 1)
15 15. Georgia Tech  15
17 16. TCU           16
19 17. Utah          17
13 18. Georgia       21 (down 3)
21 19. UNC           19
   20. Miami FL      20
23 21. Notre Dame    18 (up 3)
22 22. Iowa          -- (down 4+)
24 23. Nebraska      22 (up 1)
25 24. Kansas        24
16 25. Oregon        -- (down 1+)
18 --  FSU           --

As you can see, with some slight modification we can match the real poll pretty easily. Boise State's small move—up 2 spots that they might have jumped even had they not defeated a top 25 team—is unusual. Any other team that beat the #16 team would have landed in the top 10. Either pollsters were left with a bad taste after the Oregon game and ensuing fisticuffs, or the Bronco win wasn't fresh in their minds because five days had passed since the Thursday contest, or—most likely—the voters don't want to move Boise up too fast because their schedule henceforth is very easy. Put them in the top ten now and they might rise to #3 or #2 by the end of the year, and vie for the BCS title game. Keep them lower and they'll have to prove it by winning big. Or so the theory goes.

Other than that what stands out is how much Ohio State, Iowa, and to a lesser extent LSU were punished for not winning convincingly. Or rather, for almost losing. The Buckeyes not only didn't move up to #5, nor did they do what I expected, which was remain #6 or fall to #7, but they tumbled three spots! Voters are getting hardcore about near losses! There's also something else in play: The Ohio State factor. After being burned by the team losing big games, voters seem to be taking this opportunity to knock the Buckeyes down a few pegs at the first sign of weakness. There's also a bit of anticipation for next week's USC game. It's as if the sportswriters have anticipated the drop that they're ready to give after a loss to the Trojans...

LSU held at 11 as I (but not the formula) expected. I figured Cal would jump to 10 rather than hold at #12. But I'm a bit surprised that Oklahoma and Virginia Tech finished in that order. They're only 1 spot off, each, but I thought the voters might look at Oklahoma in their Bradford-less state and dock them several more spots. Instead it looks like they've rewarded BYU handsomely rather than penalized the Sooners.

Georgia fell three more spots than the formula thought, and Notre Dame rose three more places. The Irish tend to move up a lot when they play well, let's face it. Jumping North Carolina was a direct comparison in traditions: one school has football tradition, the other has hoards of basketball tradition.

Iowa dropped out completely, a result that wasn't entirely unforeseen but I would have expected the Hawkeyes to remain in at #25; instead they fell way out, all the way to #35. The formula kicked FSU out, too, but I thought they should have stayed in; they fell to #32. The pollsters are not going to be kicked around this year!

With a few modifications—i.e. more penalty for winning a close game against an unranked opponent—the results could have been even closer, with Ohio State, LSU, and Iowa perhaps matching the actual results. The other differences I can live with, since there isn't any overarching difference in what was predicted, or any logical heuristic that the voters used that can be matched.

Projected AP poll - college football week one 2009

This is Week One of this season's experiment: the Projected AP Top 25. Using an algorithm that may be modified as the season commences, we project the AP Poll before it comes out each week. And, we'll also keep a "running" AP projection that uses the continuous results rather than starting from the previous week's poll. This week of course those are one and the same.

The basic formula has a Win element and a Loss element; for Losses, teams fall in a linear fashion modified by their record. For the first week there is no modifier as all teams start with no wins to cushion the blow. Loss margin is added by dividing by 7, reflecting the fact that harsh losses are penalized a lot by AP voters.

For wins, margin of victory is divided by 35, that is, it's 1/5 as relevant as it is for losing. Some papers have investigated the issue and found there is no bonus for margin of victory in the AP poll, though clearly it happens in certain cases. So I've gone with a large divisor that makes it difficult for teams to leap other teams that haven't lost. The basic modifier for winning is multiplicative, depending on the rank of the defeated. For example, beating the #1 will multiply a team's ranking by 0.5, thus launching a low-ranked team up many spots, and a high-ranked team at least a few. But all advancement is mitigated by dividing by the number of losses a team has (plus one of course) so that teams with more losses advance more slowly.

The "points" column shows the results of these manipulations; lower is better.

Anyway, without further ado, tomorrow's AP poll, and where I think it will be wrong:

Projected AP Top 25 for September 8, 2009
lw	#	Team	record	pts	weekend results
1	1.	Florida	1-0	-0.19	w Charleston S. 62-3
2	2.	Texas	1-0	0.89	w ULM 59-20
4	3.	USC	1-0	2.48	w San Jose St. 56-3
5	4.	Alabama	1-0	2.79	w N #7 Virg. Tech 34-24
6	5.	Ohio State	1-0	5.88	w Navy 31-27
9	6.	OK State	1-0	6.54	w #13 Georgia 24-10
8	7.	Mississippi	1-0	7.11	w Memphis 45-14
9	8.	Penn State	1-0	8.81	w Akron 31-7
14	9.	Boise State	1-0	10.72	w #16 Oregon 19-8
20	10.	BYU	1-0	10.74	w @#3 Oklahoma 14-13
11	11.	LSU	1-0	10.77	w @Washington 31-23
12	12.	California	1-0	10.88	w Maryland 52-13
7	13.	Virg. Tech	0-1	10.93	L N Alabama 34-24
3	14.	Oklahoma	0-1	13.14	L #20 BYU 14-13
15	15.	Georgia Tech	1-0	14.93	w Jacksonville St. 37-17
16	16.	TCU	0-0	16.50	did not play
19	17.	Utah	1-0	18.48	w Utah State 36-17
13	18.	Georgia	0-1	19.75	L @#9 OK St. 24-10
21	19.	UNC	1-0	20.53	w Citadel 40-6
NR	20.	Miami FL	1-0	21.75	w @#18 FSU 38-34
23	21.	Notre Dame	1-0	22.00	w Nevada 35-0
22	22.	Iowa	1-0	22.47	w Northern Iowa 17-16
24	23.	Nebraska	1-0	22.68	w Florida Atlantic 49-3
25	24.	Kansas	1-0	24.18	w N. Colorado 49-3
16	25.	Oregon	0-1	24.57	L @#14 Boise St. 19-8
		Out:
18	--	Florida State	0-1	26.07	L Miami FL 38-34

The top four are pretty certain, as USC isn't going to get passed by Alabama. 5-7 are up in the air; I think Ole Miss or Oklahoma State will be #5, and Ohio State will be 6th or even 7th. Voters won't like the Buckeyes' performance against Navy.

Penn State will be #8, then from 9 to 12 there is a log-jam that could go many ways. I think Boise State will be #9 but BYU won't get the full benefit from their Oklahoma win as Bradford's injury will make voters discount it slightly; Cal will probably jump to #10, and LSU and BYU will fight for #11 after LSU's sluggish performance against Washington (winless last year). 

Virginia Tech will fall to #13 but Oklahoma is questionable; Bradford's injury and the prospects for the team going forward might cause voters to drop them farther than #14, but Georgia Tech wasn't great and TCU didn't play. Georgia might fall to 19 but UNC played The Citadel—it's hard to know how voters will react to I-AA teams but normally they are not impressed.

Miami won't debut ahead of Notre Dame but they'll be ahead of Iowa for sure. The Hawkeyes could find themselves lower than 22 or even out of the poll; it depends on whether the voters care that UNI is a great FCS team. That means Nebraska and Kansas could have another spot each.

Finally, I'm betting that Oregon falls out of the poll. Their performance on offense was so dismal and they've lost their leading rusher for the year; plus no one will feel bad about pushing the Ducks out of the poll after the Blount debacle. Florida State looked good and barely lost to Miami so they'll stay in at #25, or #24 if Iowa falls below them. If the Hawkeyes fall out, Missouri or possibly Cincinnati (the latter may be fresher in memory) could join the top 25.

In my system new teams only join when they beat a top 25 team, or when the last team on the list scores higher than 26 points; then a team is selected from those with the best record.

As I've noted there are clearly some areas that the projection will get wrong (if it's right and I'm wrong on those points I'll be surprised). The devil is in the details of the poll—when do teams that win, but have a subpar game, get passed? It's hard to quantify these moments based on the numbers. That's why the Continuous Projection will be interesting, to see how these small glitches either become larger or get lost in the shuffle as the season goes by.

Great Game in Talahassee - Final Score: Miami 38, Florida State 34

Ok, I owe the FSU-Miami rivalry an apology: every time I complain that this game doesn't carry the weight it used to the teams have one hell of a contest. This one was a fantastic, back and forth contest that wasn't decided until an official's review of a Christian Ponder pass into the end zone was trapped rather than caught, leaving Miami a 38-34 winner.

Jacory Harris and Miami scored first, but Christian Ponder answered and kicker Dustin Hopkins hit a 52-yarder to make it 10-7 FSU early in the 2nd quarter. But Javarris James scored with a minute left in the half to give Miami a 14-10 lead. Ponder threatened again before halftime but the Canes intercepted him in the end zone.

The second half was even more exciting. Ponder scored twice more in the third quarter, first on a run and then on a pass to Taiwan Easterling. But kicker Hopkins muffed an extra point, so it was 23-14, and that single point would be a big factor.

Three times Miami had 1st and goal from inside the 3 yard line; the first time they had to settle for a field goal after trying to pass on 1st and 2nd down; Matt Bosher's field goal brought them to within 23-17. Their second try from the 2 went better, with Harris running the ball in himself and the Hurricanes had the lead at 24-23.

Miami got the ball back with the lead, but instead they handed the lead to Florida State. Harris was hit while throwing and Markus White ran the interception into the end zone; a 2-pt PAT made it 31-24, Seminoles. Worse, Harris was hurt on the play. Remarkably, he "shook it off" as he said, and guided the Canes to another score on a 25-yard pass to Graig Cooper. For the day Harris was 21 of 34 for 386 yards, 2 TDs and 2 interceptions, and 1 rushing TD.

Ponder wasn't any slouch either tonight, at 24 for 41, 294 yards, 2 TDs, 1 int, 1 rushing TD. He led the Seminoles into field goal range and Hopkins made it 34-31.

But it turned out to be Harris' night. On the next series he connected with Travis Benjamin to the 3-yard line on a catch where he barely had the ball and a foot down at the same time. Miami scored on the next play and led by four, 38-34, leaving Ponder and the Seminoles about 2 minutes to score a touchdown.

As they'd been doing all game, though, the Canes kicked off short, trying to avoid one of the long returns that both sides had several of. This gave them the ball at midfield and a few plays later the Seminoles were inside the 10. Some questionable clock management followed, giving the Noles 24 seconds to score; on the other hand, it would leave Miami with no chance to get a winning field goal. A pass interference penalty gave FSU a fresh set of downs, but after a few incompletions Ponder appeared to hit Jarmon Fortson for a last-second touchdown but the ball was trapped.

Bobby Bowden lost his first home opener ever (unless you count the 1989 Southern Miss loss in Jacksonville).

FBS vs. FCS: Which I-A schools did the best, worst?

This weekend 38 Division I-A (FBS) teams took on I-AA (FCS) schools. With 12-games schedules this is becoming more common, making it harder for the casual fan to know if their team did well or not. After all, who keeps track of all the Division I-AA teams? Here's a guide to which teams did the best and the worst against their Championship Subdivision foes.

The Winners

These teams exceeded expectations the most:

1. Air Force (beat Nicholls State 72-0). Nicholls State isn't a I-AA power; they finished 3-6 in a hurricane-shortened season last year. But they aren't the worst by a long shot, and Air Force simply ripped them a new one. A four or five touchdown margin wouldn't have been unexpected, but ten? That's what Florida was supposed to do to Charleston Southern! This win bodes well for Air Force's offense and defense. The biggest concern on defense was the rushing defense, and they held the Colonels to 2 yards per carry. Nicholls State runs a similar offense to Air Force, so it's not all that surprising that the Falcon defense shut it down, but the overall performance is encouraging.
2. Fresno State (beat UC Davis 51-0). An impressive shutout by the Bulldogs. Davis was a poor road team last year but offensively they have promise. But Fresno State contained their passing game and stuffed the run while firing on all cylinders offensively. New quarterback Ryan Colburn performed well, too.
3. Boston College (beat Northeastern 54-0). Another shutout, though this one was more expected; Northeastern's offense isn't great and it showed. But B.C.'s pass defense looked good so far, and that's one of their main concerns. Offensively the big question was who could play quarterback for the Eagles, and both candidates did well. Again, Boston College was supposed to win comfortably over the 2-10 Huskies, but a dominant shutout shows that they're taking all games seriously.
4. Houston (beat Northwestern State 55-7). Northwestern State, though 7-5 last year, wasn't much better than Northeastern. But they had nine starters back on defense and should have at least provided some test for Houston. No rust here, though: the Cougars racked up over 400 yards passing and Case Keenum threw for four touchdowns. The defensive performance was even better, suggesting that things might not be as bad as expected (they returned only four starters to a poor 2008 unit). As expected the rushing defense was shaky (allowing four yards per play), but the pass D was pretty good allowing just over 100 yards. 
5. South Florida (beat Wofford 40-7). Wofford, 10th in the pre-season FCS poll, evened the score at 7-7 early and it looked like might give the Bulls even more trouble than expected. But USF got serious and then blew away the Terriers. 
6. UNLV (beat Sacramento State 38-3). The Rebel offense led by Omar Clayton did about exactly as expected against the Hornets, but the questionable defense did a great job in keeping their opponent out of the end zone. 

The Losers

These teams didn't look good, casting doubt on their 2009 campaign:

1. Louisville (beat Indiana State 30-10). The Sycamores were 0-12 last year and already 0-1 this year, having lost to a NAIA team. Louisville should have scored 50 points on this team effortlessly. New QB Justin Burke threw two interceptions.
2. Virginia (lost to William & Mary 26-14). The Cavaliers faced a good I-AA team, no doubt, and I had them pegged 10th in the ACC, so the loss isn't shocking. But Virginia was scoreless in the 2nd half and the game wasn't close at the end. Jameel Sewell threw three interceptions and the new offense didn't work very well after the first series. It makes me question whether the Cavs can get even the two ACC wins I had them apportioned this year.
3. Iowa (beat Northern Iowa 17-16). UNI is one of the best teams in the FCS, and maybe their performance shows that they're ready to win a title. But it also shows some serious shortcomings of the Hawkeyes. The ground game lost Shonn Greene to the NFL and Jewel Hampton to knee injury and couldn't get going. QB Ricky Stanzi was erratic as usual. The Hawks dodged a bullet by blocked two straight field goal attempts. UNI is an in-state rival but never gave them trouble before; what happens when they have to meet actual rival Iowa State in Ames next week?
4. Texas Tech (beat North Dakota 38-13). Everyone knew the offense would come down from its lofty heights minus Harrell and Crabtree, but the Raiders led just 28-13 in the fourth quarter. Taylor Potts threw the ball well except when he was getting intercepted three times.
5. Georgia Tech (beat Jacksonville State 37-17). What is it with the Yellow Jackets and FCS teams? They beat Gardner-Webb last year just 10-7. This one wasn't nearly that bad, but the team had five fumbles and when the starters left the team stalled. Jacksonville State is a good team and the Wreck were up 31-7 at the half, but if they're going to compete for the ACC title the reserves have to be ready too.
6. Oregon State (beat Portland State 34-7). Portland State was 4-7 last year; Oregon State beat USC last year. I would expect the Beavers to beat Washington by this score. 
7. Central Florida (beat Samford 28-24). I'm not high on UCF this year but they should have beaten Samford by more than 4 points, needing a fourth quarter score to go ahead.
8. West Virginia (beat Liberty 33-20). Post-Pat White, things were going to change. Liberty's a good I-AA team, but without kicker Tyler Bitancurt performing so well the Mountaineers would have had a real game on their hands.
9. Florida (beat Charleston Southern 62-3). Yes they won, yes they dominated, no I don't expect them to try to score more than 62 points. But the defense didn't look like the best defense ever, which was what was expected. Charleston Southern actually confused them at times in the first half. The outcome doesn't suggest there's anything wrong with Florida, who can be forgiven for not taking this game seriously. But they didn't beat the spread, be it 73 or 63 points.
10. Kansas State (beat UMass 21-17). The Wildcats build a 21-3 lead and almost let the game get away from them. Not a great start to Snyder Era II.
11. Indiana (beat Eastern Kentucky 19-13). The Hoosiers got the win, and that's what's important, because they might not see much more of that. Especially after doing the bare minimum needed to garner the only easy win on their schedule.
12. Southern Methodist (beat Stephen F. Austin 31-23). The Lumberjacks were 4-8 last year and SMU is supposed to be better in June Jones' second year. Yet the Mustangs needed fourth-quarter scores to overcome a 23-14 deficit. 
13. Temple (lost to Villanova 27-24). Villanova was #5 in the pre-season FCS poll so this game was no gimme and no major upset. But it was a home game for the Owls, and losing this one suggests they won't be a MAC contender and perhaps no better than last year.

Iowa blocks 2 field goals within :07 seconds, escapes Northern Iowa; final score 17-16

Here's one to look up: has any team ever blocked two field goals on consecutive plays? Because that's what the Iowa Hawkeyes had to do to escape I-AA power Northern Iowa Saturday afternoon in Iowa City.

With :07 to play on 1st down and Iowa leading by a point, UNI lined up for a 40-yard attempt. Three Hawkeyes got in the air and blocked it sideways. The usual confusion—do I touch the ball or not?—ensued, with the Hawks deciding not to touch the ball. A Panther player scooped it up and was tackled with 1 second to go.

Miracle finish for Iowa? Not so fast. Because the ball stayed behind the line, it was recoverable by the offense. And because the attempt was on first down, that made it 2nd down, UNI ball. Needless to say the home crowd was not happy.

But the Hawk special teams said no problem—we'll just block the next kick. And they did. This time the ball crossed the line and, ironically, Hawks players fell on the ball which is exactly what they should NOT have done, as it's the only way UNI could have regained possession and advanced. But that didn't happen and the game was over.

Iowa can celebrate now but their offense needs some work. Shonn Greene is gone, of course, but they also recently lost Jewell Hampton and it showed; they couldn't get a running game established as starting tailback Paki O'Meara averaged under 2 yards a carry. QB Ricky Stanzi wasn't bad but he can't take over a game. A bright spot was TE Tony Moeaki, who played his best game in years now that's he's finally healthy. The defense wasn't bad overall, either, as holding UNI to 16 isn't terrible.

UNI looks like a team to beat in the Championship Subdivision. Their passing attack with QB Pat Grace kept Iowa on its heels for the early part of the game and then later in the final drive where they marched the length of the field to set up not one but two field goal attempts.

So I ask the question: has any team ever blocked field goals on consecutive plays? It might be the first time due to all the factors that make it rare. 99% of field goals are on 4th down, I'd guess, so even blocked ones can't normally be recovered (unless it advances forward and is interefered with by the defense then recovered by the offense). So it's extremely rare when a team attempts two straight field goals. To have the second kick blocked, too, decreases the odds further.

My guess is that this is a first. I'm sure if it has someone will mention it in the next 24 hours...

LaGarrette Blount's punch after Boise State-Oregon game

LaGarrette Blount had a terrible night rushing for the Ducks, ending in negative yardage. The rest of his season should be a lot better if he's allowed to play after punching a Boise State player and trying to attack some fans after the game.

Let's see how long this video stays up...

Blount will probably miss at least the next game, I figure, if not several. There's no doubt that Byron Hout, the Boise State player he hit, had egged him on with some trash talking before the punch. Still, keep it on the field, dumbass.

Boise State beats Oregon; North Texas shocks Ball State; Troy, Temple also upset victims

It was a good night for Smurf Blue, Mean Green, and Bowling Green. Boise State beat Oregon and North Texas led a rash of upsets that struck before the first weekend of the college football season even started.

  Boise State 19, Oregon 8  

Boise State accomplished what they had to do in week one—emerge with a win. It wasn't dominant enough to suggest they're a national title contender or even a top ten team, but the game wasn't close as Oregon's offense—so unstoppable last year—couldn't get off the ground. Meanwhile Kellen Moore and the Broncos ate up the clock with two long drives in the first half, both of which ended in missed field goals. Kicker Kyle Brotzman, 17 of 26 last year, missed attempts from the left hash mark before connecting on a 45-yarder later on.

Boise State dominated the 2nd quarter as well, rolling to a 13-0 lead which should have been much worse. Moore hit Austin Pettis for a touchdown and then ran in the 2 point conversion. The defense stymied the Ducks, scoring a safety that made it 10-0. The Broncos got their 2nd touchdown early in the 3rd quarter and despite many opportunities thereafter didn't score again. They botched a snap on a field goal attempt and couldn't take advantage of several turnovers. But they didn't have to worry because Jeremiah Masoli and Oregon couldn't get going. The Ducks had just seven first downs and LaGarrette Blount—a 1,000 yard rusher last season—had negative yardage for the game and punched a Boise State player who taunted him after the game was over.

  North Texas 20, Ball State 10  

A big surprise out of Indiana. The Sun Belt's North Texas, one of last year's worst teams—and projected to still be near the bottom this year—beat Ball State in Muncie. The Cardinals were undefeated last year and though not promising to be as good this year still had hopes of competing for the MAC crown. Riley Dodge threw two TD passes and Cam Montgomery had 150 yards rushing. Now the question over the next few weeks is: is Ball State really that bad? Or has North Texas really improved that much? This was supposed to be the Cardinals' easiest game of the year; now they really have to worry about I-AA power New Hampshire on the 12th. Meanwhile this was one of North Texas' tougher challenges; a winning season is not beyond the pale any more. They're a team that should actually improve thoughout the season. Coach Todd Dodge had talked about the team showing a very different attitude this season; apparently he was onto something.

  Bowling Green 31, Troy 14  

Troy was the Sun Belt team that was supposed to win tonight, with Bowling Green being the MAC team that was supposed to lose. Instead the Falcons tripped the Trojans in a lesser upset but an upset nevertheless. It's more the magnitude of the loss that puts into question the ability of Troy to win the Sun Belt. The Trojan secondary was known to be a huge problem area with no starters returning, and Bowling Green racked up over 300 yards passing. The Falcons' fortunes are looking a lot brighter, as it seemed they'd be on the losing end of many close games this year; now all those could be wins.

  Villanova 27, Temple 24  

Villanova came back from a 10-point 4th quarter deficit to upset Temple, a team that looked ready to have a breakout season. But the loss to a I-AA is not quite so shocking, since the Wildcats are one of the best teams in the FCS and now have to be taken seriously as a championship contender. Temple's own MAC title hopes are still alive, but they have to learn to finish, something they couldn't do last year when they lost scads of close games.

  South Carolina 7, North Carolina State 3  

Another minor upset, this time in a game between mid-to-lower level BCS teams. Steve Spurrier has to be pleased at getting a road win but not happy with the way the offense played. Though the Wolfpack can console themselves that the Gamecocks have a staunch defense, NC State's D wasn't any good last year so it's likely that South Carolina's offense is just bad. It's hard to say what this means for both teams going forward, but losing at home never advanced a team's cause so it's a good thing they have Murray State next. South Carolina, on the other hand, has Georgia next week, also on the road.

2009 Week One Previews, Odds, & Predictions: The Five Best and Worst Games

Like every opening week in college football there are a lot of crap games. It's been getting worse since the move to 12-games schedules diluted things further and added more I-AA schools into the mix. But there are a lot of good games, too. Some teams—like Miami vs. FSU and Cincinnati vs. Rutgers—kick off the year with a tough conference game. The best, of course, is when good teams take on other good teams outside their conference.

Here are the five best and five, games of Week One, 2009, starting with the BEST:

1. Game of the Week: #19 Oregon at #16 Boise State
   Line/Spread: Boise State by 3
   We will probably know by the end of Thursday night whether the Broncos will be in a BCS bowl game. Beat the Ducks convincingly and it's very likely. Win a slim victory and they might go undefeated but be left out of the BCS equation. Lose, of course, and it's all over. It also depends on whether Oregon lives up to its pre-season billing, too. Have to give the edge to Boise State in this one, simply because they won on the road last year.
   Prediction: Boise State 35, Oregon 30
    
2. #25 Virginia Tech vs. #6 Alabama in Atlanta
   Line/Spread: Alabama by 6
   This one beats the Oklahoma State/Georgia game because it's on a neutral field. Virginia Tech is having running back problems and I think this one might go a lot like last year's Alabama-Clemson opener, another Tide vs. ACC neutral field game that turned into a rout. I have the Hokies considerably lower than the rest of the pre-season polls; this is their first chance to prove me wrong.
   Prediction: Alabama 24, Virginia Tech 13
    
3. #26 Georgia at #11 Oklahoma State
   Line/Spread: Oklahoma State by 4 1/2
   This one answers the question, are the Cowboys for real this year? And maybe asks some questions about Georgia, too, whom I don't think is going to be all that great in 2009. A road win against the terrible trio of Zac Robinson, Dez Bryant, and Kendall Hunter would be a great confidence booster heading into the season. But without Matt Stafford and Knowshon Moreno, you have to figure there will be at least a 1-game adjustment period.
   Prediction: Oklahoma State 38, Georgia 31
    
4. #34 Missouri vs. #31 Illinois in St. Louis
   Line/Spread: Illinois by 6 1/2
   Missouri was good last year but won't be as good this season; Illinois finished 5-7 in '08 but should be much-improved. Have they crossed over, so that Illinois will finally win this neutral-field game? The oddsmakers think so. I'd have to agree but either way this game answers a lot of questions about both teams: How will Missouri do replacing Chase Daniel? Can Juice Williams make a Heisman run this year? The last few contests have seen a lot of offense so this one should be fun to watch.
   Prediction: Illinois 35, Missouri 34
    
5. #28 Baylor at #37 Wake Forest
   Line/Spread: Wake Forest by 2
   This game is interesting to me for a couple of reasons. I've got Baylor as a near-top 25 teams this season, and this game will show right away whether I'm right. Last year the Bears lost to the Deacons 41-13 at home; if they can win on the road it means they're probably for real. Also, quarterback Robert Griffin should be a Heisman contender in 2010—unless he goes wild this year and puts his name in the mix a season early.
   Prediction: Baylor 27, Wake Forest 20 (OT)

Now for the weekend's WORST games, and believe me, there are a lot to choose from.

1. Dog of the Week: Charleston Southern at #1 Florida
   Line/Spread: 63 points (unofficial, via Danny Sheridan)
   The line on this game isn't 73 points; Dr. Saturday tracked down the truth. But it's still quite a joke. I-AA Charleston Southern (7-5 last year) lost to Miami 52-7, and lost to Miami of Ohio to boot. They're probably worse this season. Why Florida needs to play a team like this, no one knows. It's like last year when they took on The Citadel, who finished 4-8. Why can't a program like Florida at least schedule a tougher FCS opponent? I'm taking the Gators against the spread—the "real" one, not the one bandied about the 'net.
   Prediction: Florida 70, Charleston Southern 0
    
2. Indiana State at #80 Louisville
   No line.
   Indiana State was 0-12 last season in the FCS (I-AA). Lousiville isn't going to be great this year but they've been a power recently, and scheduling an extremely weak I-AA team is just wrong. Other I-A teams facing pathetic I-AA teams include Southern Miss against Alcorn State (2-10) and Arkansas State vs. Mississippi Valley State (3-8).
   Prediction: Louisville wins.
    
3. #83 Maryland at #7 California
   Line/Spread: Cal by 21
   I rank Maryland as one of the weakest BCS-conference teams this year, last in the ACC. They beat Cal last year in an up-and-down season, but now they're just down. This should be nothing more than a revenge game for Cal and a warm-up for Jahvid Best's Heisman run. If they're upset you can scratch Cal off your list of potential BCS teams this year.
   Prediction: Cal 42, Maryland 7
    
4. #49 BYU at #3 Oklahoma in Dallas
   Line/Spread: Oklahoma by 22
   I don't understand the hype about this game. Let me start by saying, though, that I like the idea of BCS teams facing a tough schedule, and this is an interesting matchup. But in terms of the expected outcome? I think this one's overblown. Even Vegas sees this as a cakewalk for the Sooners, not a battle between top 25 teams, which I think BYU is not. It's also really a home game for Oklahoma no matter how you look at it. If the Cougars win this one—if it's even close—then I'm very mistaken about both teams.
   Prediction: Oklahoma 51, BYU 10
    
5. #30 Miami at #18 Florida State
   Line/Spread: FSU by 6 1/2
   This is a good game. It's an ACC game between two good ACC teams, and is fairly evenly matched. But if you compare it to what it used to mean, year-in and year-out? It looks pretty sad. Both teams have fallen far from their lofty peaks, especially the Hurricanes. Both are just teams with a shot at winning their division, like at least a half-dozen other teams in the conference. Another annoying factor is that this game is on Labor Day, screwing up the polls (do they vote on Sunday and ignore this game, or on Tuesday morning?) I don't think Miami is ready to run with FSU quite yet, not in Tallahassee. Maybe next year they will, and maybe in a few years the rivalry will really matter again.
   Prediction: FSU 31, Miami 24

2009 Projected Final Top 25: Forecasting the Entire Season

You've seen many pre-season Top 25 rankings, even several Top 120 pre-season rankings, including ours. Now we take it a step further. After calling the winner in every game, figuring out the conference winners and championship teams, we paired the teams into bowl games using the BCS rules and conference tie-ins, then projected those games. Here's what happens when you start with our rankings and run through the season in its entirety, then judge the teams by their resulting wins and losses the way pollsters do.

The record included is the record from our projection, but it doesn't have to be literal. There are a number of ways these teams can finish in this order even if events don't strictly play out the way we've envisioned. For example, USC may finish undefeated and #2, or perhaps they played and lost to Florida and still finished second. The far left column is our pre-season ranking of the team.

2009 Projected Post-BCS Final Top 25
#	Team	record	(pre)
1.	Florida	14-0	1
2.	USC	13-0	4
3.	Texas	13-1	2
4.	Oklahoma	12-1	3
5.	Mississippi	13-1	5
6.	Penn State	12-1	9
7.	Alabama	12-1	6
8.	Virginia Tech	12-2	25
9.	Georgia Tech	11-2	21
10.	California	12-1	7
11.	North Carolina	11-2	13
12.	Florida State	10-3	18
13.	Boise State	13-1	16
14.	TCU	12-1	14
15.	Rutgers	12-1	33
16.	Michigan State	11-2	20
17.	Oklahoma State	11-2	11
18.	Notre Dame	10-3	17
19.	Stanford	10-3	15
20.	Arizona	10-3	10
21.	Iowa	10-3	12
22.	Pittsburgh	11-2	36
23.	Clemson	10-4	29
24.	Ohio State	10-3	22
25.	Southern Miss	11-2	43

As you can see nothing can stop Florida from taking the #1 spot. At #2, either USC is bypassed for the BCS title game and wins the Rose Bowl, or alternately they may lose to Florida and still finish #2. Texas and Oklahoma each pick up a loss somewhere along the way—to each other and then likely to Florida, as Texas did in ours. Here, Mississippi's only loss is to Florida.

Penn State finishes #6, either by going undefeated an losing in the Rose Bowl, or they lose one Big Ten game and win the Rose Bowl; in both cases #6 is a reasonable estimate. Alabama could finish below Mississippi by losing to them, or beating them and losing to Florida and in their bowl game; here, it was the former. One of the two SEC teams will miss the BCS, but that team will have an easier bowl game that they'll win.

Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech were only #25 and #21 in the pre-season rankings but scheduling is in their favor, allowing them to rank high and get good bowl pairings. They both jump ahead of North Carolina, a better team that didn't have schedule on its side. Florida State also moves up. California, on the other hand still had to play USC and comes up short and might be out of luck as far as the BCS goes.

Boise State, TCU, and Rutgers all play very easy schedules and all could go undefeated; each has a great shot at a BCS bowl game. Here they each pick up a loss somewhere along the way, but it's most likely in their bowl game. Rutgers, in particular, is not a great team (only #33 pre-season) and will likely be in over their heads in their bowl.

Michigan State and Oklahoma State should have good years but not quite be the best in their conference, keeping them outside the BCS equation. At #18 Notre Dame will end up about where they should; the voters (and computers) will see through their easy schedule and keep them out of the BCS. If they manage to finish the regular season with just one loss and get in they will likely lose their bowl game.

Two surprise Pac-10 teams are next, Stanford and Arizona. They rank even higher pre-season but they probably won't manage to beat the top conference teams and the Pac-10 has bad bowl tie-ins. They'll probably win their bowl games but it won't impress anyone. At #21 Iowa is a near-top 10 team but they play a tough road schedule which will keep them down. Pittsburgh could go 11-2 and still not impress as their schedule is easy.

Clemson might play in the ACC championship game despite being the #5 team in the conference. Ohio State isn't as highly rated by SportsRatings as most pundits; here they finish about where we would expect based on being #22 in quality. If they lose only to USC and Penn State they'll again be in a high-profile bowl game that they probably can't win. Southern Miss is the real overachiever, managing to make the top 25 without playing in the C-USA title game.

Good teams that don't make it

A few teams that were in the top 25 of the pre-season Top 120 didn't make the projected Final Top 25:

The most interesting is Texas Tech. #8 to start the year, they will probably lose to Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State, but not have many big wins to offset that. They finished #30.

Another Big Twelve team, Kansas, is our #24 pre-season team but again, if you can't beat the big teams there's slim pickings left in the conference, and fairly tough tie-in games for the bowls. They finished #32.

Oregon was #19 to start but faces Boise State, USC, Cal, and upstarts Arizona and Stanford. Add in a bowl game and they may have too many losses to get in to the final top 25.

"Others receiving votes"

The teams that we project to finish just outside the top 25: Tulsa, Miami, Central Michigan, Troy, Texas Tech, Georgia, Kansas, Temple, Nevada, Utah, Oregon

2009 Conference Projections: Mountain West, Conference USA, MAC, WAC, Sun Belt

Here are SportsRatings projections for the non-BCS conference races in 2009, based strictly on game-by-game favorites from our 2009 Preview listings—no upsets are picked and no attempt has been made to account for them. An asterisk (*) denotes bowl eligibility expected.

Mountain West
*TCU	8-0
*Utah	7-1
*BYU	6-2
*Air Force	5-3
New Mexico	4-4
UNLV	3-5
Colorado State	2-6
San Diego State	1-7
Wyoming	0-8

The Mountain West caused a stir last year for two reasons: One, having a week in which their teams went 5-0 against the Pac-10. Two, for Utah going 12-0 and busting in on the BCS bowl scene. Utah beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl while TCU defeated Boise State to give the conference two high-profile finishes.

This year many are picking the three top teams to be in the top 25 this year. We only see one team—TCU—being that good. Utah and BYU are both far from their quality of last season but should finish #2 and #3 in the conference followed by Air Force. All four teams should be bowl eligible with room to spare.

After that, though, no other teams will likely finish above .500. But TCU has a good chance of going undefeated and becoming this season's BCS buster.

Conference USA
East division
*East Carolina	7-1
*Southern Miss	7-1
*Central Florida	4-4
*Marshall	4-4
Memphis	1-7
UAB	1-7
West division
*Tulsa	7-1
*Houston	6-2
*Rice	5-3
*UTEP	5-3
SMU	1-7
Tulane	0-8

What a difference home field makes in the conference races. Here's how we see the C-USA standings going down: East Carolina beats Southern Miss, who beats Tulsa, who beats East Carolina, leaving them all 7-1 with the winner in each case being the home team. Now, because the Pirates and the Golden Eagles being in the same division, the latter are eliminated from title game discussion.

What's more, Tulsa retains the home field for the conference championship game, meaning they should win the conference just because they faced East Carolina and Houston at home, while Southern Miss who is just as good gets shafted for being in the East rather than the West. Sometimes that's how it goes, though...

Overall the conference should have eight bowl qualifiers, from which at least five will be selected for bowl games. Central Florida, Marshall, and Rice may be "on the bubble".

Mid-American (MAC)
East division
*Temple	7-1
*Buffalo	6-2
*Akron	6-2
Bowling Green	3-5
Kent State	3-5
Ohio	3-5
Miami Ohio	0-8
West division
*Central Michigan	8-0
*Ball State	6-2
Toledo	4-4
Northern Illinois	3-5
Western Michigan	2-6
Eastern Michigan	1-7

The Temple Owls may take a big leap this year and play for the conference championship. Last year's winner Buffalo and upstart Akron are close behind in contention in the East.

Central Michigan is back in the driver's seat in the West, though. Last year's darling Ball State will still be good but won't threaten to go undefeated this year. The Chippewas then get to play in the championship game very close to home in Ford Field, which should ensure a win over the Owls for the MAC title.

Overall the conference should have five bowl teams—all those that are in the running for the division crowns. All the other teams will come up short to varying degrees. The MAC will have a down year, with the majority of teams not as good as they were last season.

Western Athletic (WAC)
*Boise State	8-0
*Nevada	7-1
*Fresno State	6-2
*Utah State	5-3
Louisiana Tech	4-4
San Jose State	3-5
Hawaii	2-6
New Mexico State	1-7
Idaho	0-8

Boise State makes another run at going undefeated and the WAC shouldn't give them any problem. Nevada is a far distant second to the Broncos who face Oregon at home in their toughest test in the opener. Get past that and only laziness and/or overconfidence can stop them.

The gulf between the best and worst team in the WAC is wider than any other conference (with perhaps the Pac-10 being in the running lately, but that's an aberration). New Mexico State and Idaho are two of the three worst teams in the NCAA so while the projected records make the conference look rather lineal in decay, it's not.

Four teams should be bowl eligible, though Utah State might not get a bid if they finish 6-6.

Sun Belt
*Troy	8-0
*Middle Tennessee St.	7-1
*Arkansas State	6-2
*Florida International	5-3
LA-Lafayette	4-4
Florida Atlantic	3-5
Louisiana-Monroe	2-6
Western Kentucky	1-7
North Texas	0-8

Troy should be in control of the Sun Belt this year. Middle Tennessee, Arkansas State, and FIU are perhaps surprising upstarts but none should threaten the Trojans. Beyond those four there is little hope for bowl eligibility in the conference.

2009 Conference Projections: ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big Twelve, PAC-10, SEC

Here are SportsRatings projections for the BCS conference races in 2009, based strictly on game-by-game favorites from our 2009 Preview listings—no upsets are picked and no attempt has been made to account for them. An asterisk (*) denotes bowl eligibility expected.

ACC
Atlantic division
*Clemson	6-2
*Florida State	6-2
*Boston College	4-4
*Wake Forest	4-4
NC State	2-6
Maryland	0-8
Coastal division
*Virginia Tech	7-1
*Georgia Tech	6-2
*North Carolina	6-2
*Miami	4-4
Virginia	2-6
Duke	1-7

Clemson finally gets a chance to redeem themselves for last year's stumble. Though ranked 2nd in the Atlantic division they get Florida State at home in a game that should decide who goes to the title game. That contest could go either way but Clemson has it by a hair.

The Coastal division is even screwier. Parity still reigns at the top of the conference, and though North Carolina is the best team overall in the ACC they finish third in the division! Having to play Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech on the road is their downfall. Meanwhile Virginia Tech probably loses on the road to the Yellow Jackets but they win everything else to go to the final.

The championship game is played in Tampa this year, and Virginia Tech will likely edge Clemson for another BCS bowl game for the Hokies. 

FSU and North Carolina are only a bounce of the ball away from playing in the title game themselves. Eight teams will likely be bowl eligible in the ACC, though Wake Forest cuts it close.

Big East
*Rutgers	7-0
*Pittsburgh	6-1
*South Florida	5-2
*Cincinnati	4-3
*West Virginia	3-4
Connecticut	2-5
Louisville	1-6
Syracuse	0-7

Rutgers has an easy schedule this year but that's not why they should win the Big East—they're also the best team in the league. That's not saying much this year when no Big East team is a legit top 25 team. Don't worry about the Big East getting skipped over though; Rutgers should be undefeated this year or very close, so they'll have a good ranking at year's end. The Scarlet Knights play Pittsburgh at home so that's more insurance that they should find their way to a BCS bowl.

The rest of the league falls into line basically by quality, though Cincy ends up ahead of West Virginia due to playing them at home. Both should easily be bowl-eligible but UConn, Louisville, and Syracuse are out of luck.

Big Ten
*Penn State	8-0
*Ohio State	7-1
*Michigan State	7-1
*Iowa	5-3
*Minnesota	4-4
*Illinois	4-4
*Wisconsin	3-5
Purdue	2-6
Michigan	2-6
*Northwestern	2-6
Indiana	0-8

Penn State should again rule the conference by beating both of the teams that tie for second place. Ohio State and Michigan State don't play each other so it's a true tie. The Spartans have a better chance than the Buckeyes of beating the Nittany Lions as their game is in East Lansing. But likely both teams suffer just that one loss.

The real 2nd-best team in the conference is Iowa. The Hawks have the bad luck, though, of playing Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan State all on the road. The latter two games are virtual tossups and with a little luck Iowa could move into 2nd place but it would take a lot to get to the Rose Bowl.

Speaking of bowls the top seven teams should all be bowl-eligible pretty easily; Northwestern technically finishes 10th but should reach bowl eligibility also.

Big Twelve
North division
*Kansas	5-3
*Missouri	5-3
*Nebraska	3-5
Kansas State	3-5
Iowa State	1-7
Colorado	1-7
South division
*Texas	8-0
*Oklahoma	7-1
*Oklahoma State	6-2
*Texas Tech	5-3
*Baylor	3-5
Texas A&M	1-7

The much-maligned North division will have a new champion: Kansas. The Jayhawks should beat Missouri in their season-ending Kansas City contest and win the tiebreaker to face, and lose to, the South division champ.

The South division is once again loaded, with the Red River Shootout determining who goes to the Big 12 title game as well as the national championship. Texas is still the slim favorite as we knock on the door of the season's start. Oklahoma should run the table other than that, with Oklahoma State losing only to Texas and Oklahoma while beating Texas Tech in a home game. In all, five teams from the South should be bowl-bound including Baylor.

Texas will have home field advantage in the Big Twelve title game, ensuring that if they beat Oklahoma they will be on their way to a BCS bowl game, most likely the national championship. In the North, only three teams will be bowl eligible, with Kansas State reaching six wins but only being able to count one of the two FCS teams on their schedule.

Pac Ten
*Southern Cal	9-0
*California	8-1
*Arizona	7-2
*Stanford	6-3
*Oregon	5-4
*Oregon State	4-5
Arizona State	3-6
UCLA	2-7
Washington	1-8
Washington St.	0-9

The Pac Ten has USC at the top as usual, with Cal just barely failing to knock them off. Two surprise teams land at #3 and #4: Arizona and Stanford, displacing the Oregon teams from where most pundits have them.

With USC and Penn State both favored in their conferences but likely shut out from the national championship, it looks like a Rose Bowl repeat of last year's one-sided contest. The Pac-10 was 5-0 in bowl games last year and will have a chance to do that one better in 2009 as six teams should qualify with room to spare.

Washington and Washington State will again bring up the rear, but the Huskies will do a lot better this season while the Cougars won't make much progress.

SEC
East division
*Florida	8-0
*Georgia	7-1
*Vanderbilt	4-4
*Tennessee	2-6
South Carolina	1-7
Kentucky	1-7
West division
*Mississippi	8-0
*Alabama	7-1
*LSU	4-4
*Arkansas	3-5
*Auburn	3-5
Mississippi St.	0-8

There are two huge games in the SEC: the title game, of course, and the Alabama-Mississippi game on October 10th. The latter decides who gets to face Florida in December.

Because that game is in Oxford, the Rebels should win the West division. LSU is a very distant their so if Alabama can best Ole Miss they should expect to win the division.

Florida will dominate the East, which is weak this year. Georgia is about as good as LSU but finishes 7-1 in the SEC due to avoiding playing Alabama and Mississippi and facing LSU at home. Florida should also win the SEC title and be in the national championship game.

Tennessee will just barely be bowl-eligible while in the West even Arkansas and Auburn will easily make it.