College Football

Super Bowl 43 preview, odds, & prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals

Sunday February 1st: Super Bowl XLIII in Tampa, FL 6:00* pm eastern (actual kickoff closer to 6:30)

Pittsburgh Steelers (14-4) vs. Arizona Cardinals (12-7)

The Steelers are looking for their sixth NFL title in their eighth appearance; the Cardinals are in their very first Super Bowl.

Vegas line: Pittsburgh by 7

The Steelers are heavy favorites, with the line now varying between 6 1/2 and 7 points.

Strength Power Rating:  Pittsburgh 29    Arizona 19

Pittsburgh is the #1 team in the league according to the Strength Power Rating and is favored by 10 points over Arizona, who barely registers as an average team when the entire season is considered. Here is the current state of the power rating through all games played so far this year:

num  Team                       record  rating   offense       defense
  1. Pittsburgh                  14-4    10.40   24.46 [  9]   14.06 [  1]
  2. Baltimore                   13-6    10.21   26.02 [  6]   15.80 [  3]
  3. Philadephia                 11-6     9.31   26.94 [  5]   17.63 [  4]
  4. Tennessee                   13-4     8.40   22.85 [ 16]   14.44 [  2]
  5. NY Giants                   12-5     7.87   26.95 [  4]   19.07 [  7]
  6. Indianapolis                12-5     5.89   24.08 [ 12]   18.19 [  6]
  7. San Diego                    9-9     4.55   26.99 [  2]   22.44 [ 17]
  8. New England                 11-5     3.88   24.30 [ 10]   20.42 [ 13]
  9. Carolina                    12-5     3.47   23.48 [ 14]   20.00 [ 10]
 10. New Orleans                  8-8     3.27   28.46 [  1]   25.19 [ 26]
 11. Minnesota                   10-7     2.96   22.58 [ 18]   19.61 [  9]
 12. Atlanta                     11-6     2.75   22.89 [ 15]   20.14 [ 11]
 13. Green Bay                    6-10    2.22   25.80 [  7]   23.57 [ 22]
 14. Chicago                      9-7     1.50   22.84 [ 17]   21.34 [ 14]
 15. Tampa Bay                    9-7     1.49   21.03 [ 20]   19.53 [  8]
 16. Dallas                       9-7     0.89   23.97 [ 13]   23.07 [ 20]
 17. NY Jets                      9-7     0.17   24.17 [ 11]   24.00 [ 23]
 18. Arizona                     12-7     0.08   26.96 [  3]   26.87 [ 28]

That's quite a gap between the rankings of the teams, even bigger than last year's gap between the Patriots and the Giants. Last year, the Giants were ranked among the top 10 teams as they made the Super Bowl from the wildcard slot, and had an impressive set of late-season games. Arizona has come alive during the playoffs, but not the way the Giants did. Though the Steelers were hardly as dominant as the Patriots, they still rank at the top and haven't slowed down the way New England did in the 2nd half of the 2007 season.

Arizona on offense: If Arizona is to win, they need a strong game from Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald as their #3 scoring offense takes on the Steelers' #1 ranked defense. The Steelers are rock-solid against both the pass and the run, ranking #1 and #2 in the league. The Cardinals' air attack is #2 in the league but their rushing game is dead last, which should allow the Steeler defense to focus on Warner. They're tied for 6th in interceptions and are 2nd in sacks, and Warner has been vulnerable to both, particularly interceptions. Because the Steelers are so good against the pass and the Arizona running game might not be a threat, the Cardinals have to speed up the play calling to keep Pittsburgh's D off-balance.

Pittsburgh on offense: Though the Steelers rank just 17th in passing and 23rd in rushing in unadjusted yards, when corrected for their opposition their offensive output looks much better: Pittsburgh's offense ranks 9th in adjusted scoring average, which should be more than adequate against the Cardinals' 28th-ranked defense. Ben Roethlisberger isn't having the kind of year Warner had, and he's been sacked 51 times and lost 7 fumbles this year. Arizona is 22nd in raw passing yards yielded on defense and 16th against the run, so they can theoretically keep up with the Steeler offense, but that's against relatively weak competition. And while Pittsburgh lacks consistency on offense, they do have more of a run/pass balance, and Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore should keep the Cards on their toes if they try to rush Roethlisberger, and Hines Wards' questionable knee might make them more important still.

Special Teams: Pittsburgh's punting game is woeful and near the bottom of the league in both punting average and returns; Arizona isn't much better, though, so they don't have that big of an advantage in the field position game. The two teams are nearly identical in field goal percentage and points scored on kicks.

Game-comparison win %
Pittsburgh      70%
Arizona          30%  

Pittsburgh has been markedly more consistent than Arizona this season, with the latter suffering several big losses throughout the season. The Steelers haven't won by huge margins, but tend to play at a reliable level. This makes Pittsburgh a 7 in 10 favorite to win when all game-comparisons are cross-combined.

Pittsburgh's key games

Wins over playoff teams (5)

• Baltimore 23-20 (4th game of season)
• San Diego 11-10 (10th)
• @ Baltimore 13-9 (14th)
• San Diego 35-24 (17th)
• Baltimore 23-14 (18th)

Losses (4):

• @ Philadelphia 15-6
• @ New York Giants 21-14
• Indianapolis 24-20
• @ Tennessee 31-14

Pittsburgh has five wins over playoff teams—but those are all over Baltimore and San Diego, and four of the five were at home. But their losses are all to playoff teams as well; they haven't been devastatingly blown out, nor have they lost to a bad team. They bounced back from their worst game of the year ( the Tennessee loss) to shut out Cleveland 31-0 before the playoffs.

Arizona's key games

Wins over playoff teams (4):

• Miami 31-10 (2nd game of season)
• Atlanta 30-24 (17th)
• @ Carolina 33-13 (18th)
• Philadelphia 32-25 (19th)

Losses (7):

• @ Washington 24-17
• @ New York Jets 56-35
• @ Carolina 27-23
• New York Giants 37-29
• @ Philadelphia 48-20
• Minnesota 35-14
• @ New England 47-7

Three of Arizona's four wins over playoff teams occurred in the post-season itself; from their week two crushing of Miami through the end of the regular season, they beat no one of note. But over the next three weeks they avenged two losses.

Speaking of losses, the Cards had their share this year, and many of them weren't pretty. Four of them count as blowouts, three losses were to non-playoff teams, and two were blowout losses to non-playoff teams. Since New England was a playoff-level team at 11-5 that's a bit harsh, but the 47-7 loss—which happened just a little over a month ago—was a breakdown on all fronts. Some have suggested that it led to the team's turnaround, and certainly they've played much better in the four games since. But I'd hesitate to give such a devastating loss too much credit. They played a horrible game at New England, and since then they haven't, that's all.

Psychology

The Cards are in their first Super Bowl appearance while the Steelers have been here recently, and historically. While in many sports this would give Arizona the edge for "hunger" that usually doesn't apply in the Super Bowl; rookie teams typically have big problems. By my count, teams making their initial Super Bowl appearance are 9-18 and have been on the receiving end of quite a few blowouts.

Another wild card is Roethlisberger's performance. In his last Super Bowl outing he had a sloppy game to be kind. Pittsburgh still won, showing that they don't need him to be the star. But it would help if he had a much better game.

Final analysis

Last year's Super Bowl was an odd game. Despite dominating the season and being a heavy favorite by the oddsmakers, a very large section of the public didn't think the Patriots could complete their perfect season. And there were good reasons: the dominance they'd shown in the first half of the season had devolved into close calls and narrow escapes. Meanwhile the Giants had put together a string of remarkable games to make it to the Super Bowl. From that angle, it looked like a close game, and in the end it was.

This game has some similarities. Compared on a whole-season level, there's no way the Cardinals should beat the Steelers. Arizona rates as a completely average team by the power ratings, they've been blown out multiple times, and they have no running game. Pittsburgh rates as the best team in the league, and the oddsmakers favor them heavily as well.

Could this be another situation like last season? I don't think so. While the Giants were at least a top 10 team last year, in the playoffs they were neck and neck with the Patriots level of play. The Cardinals don't even look like they should have made the playoffs. Their defense is among the worst in the league.

But what about their last four games? What happened after the crushing loss to New England? Despite their defensive problems, they're certainly playing well enough recently to beat a Pittsburgh team with a very questionable offense.

However, I think Pittsburgh's defense will live up to its forebears in the Steel Curtain tradition. Without having to cope with a running game, they will be able to stifle Warner. The defense will give the offense opportunities, and Roethlisberger will do a lot better than last time around. Given that, and that Super Bowls are often blowouts and unkind to first-time teams, that's what I think will happen on Sunday.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 31   Arizona 10

Big 12 is the Best Conference in 2008

Despite their lackluster bowl performance, the Big Twelve comes out the best conference from top to bottom in 2008 using a round-robin matchup rating approach.

No one agrees with on a perfect method for deciding which conference is best; some look at the top teams, some for a lack of bad teams; Jeff Sagarin uses "central mean" that overweights teams in the middle of the conference. The basic problems is that conferences have different numbers of teams, making direct comparisons between them difficult. Taking an "average" of the teams, or using the "median" team is unsatisfying.

I use a hypothetical "round-robin" system that pits every team from Conference A against every team from Conference B. The conference that "wins" the most wins that round. Then each conference has a "record" of 10 rounds, and the conferences are ranked by this "record."

This way the top teams in a conference contribute to its success, but no more than they deserve. Having bad teams hurts them, but it doesn't pull them down the way averaging does.

Some points to remember about these conclusions:

1. No actual inter-conference game results are used.

   It's all based on hypothetical outcomes from how the teams rank in my power ratings. All games that were played this year go into the pot for the power rating. The teams are ranked 1 to 120 and that forms the basis for results. There are not enough actual inter-conference results to form good conclusions about the relative strength of conferences; the Mountain West's 6-2 record against the Pac 10 doesn't mean the MWC is better than the PAC 10, it only reflects the performance of the teams involved, and the fact that upsets can occur.

2. The evaluation of the conferences is for the 2008 season only.

   The ACC's historical record against the Big Ten is irrelevant, and the fact that SEC teams have won the championship the last three years is irrelevant, too. So, too, is the number of NFL players from each conference, since no players from this season are in the NFL (yet).

3. All teams in a conference contribute to its results.

   Thus Florida's capturing the national championship this year does not give the SEC any additional advantage, other than having a team that will project to beat anyone else. It doesn't help Mississippi State do any better in their matchups.

Now the conference rankings, with their "record" against the other 10 conferences in parens, with their overall percentage in all comparisons following:

1. Big 12 (10-0) 72.2%
2. Pac 10 (9-1) 62.6%
3. ACC (8-2) 67.9%
4. SEC (7-3) 66.3%
5. Big East (6-4) 57.1%
6. Big Ten (5-5) 63.0%
7. Mtn. West (4-6) 48.2%
8. C-USA (3-7) 33.3%
9. MAC (2-8) 26.5%
10. WAC (1-9) 25.3%
11. Sun Belt (0-10) 18.6%

Before discussing the more suprising results, it should be noted that the conferences with the best record against other conferences are not necessarily the best in overall percentage. The percentages represent all the matchups against all other teams; some conferences beat other conferences very narrowly. The Pac 10 "beat" the SEC by two matchups and the Big Ten by one, despite having a lower overall percentage than both. By pure percentages, the Pac 10 would fall to fifth, the Big Ten would be fourth, and the Big East sixth. But we're comparison conference to conference, winner take all.

RESULTS

The Big 12 ends up #1. Last year's 2nd best conference, many of its teams improved dramatically: Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, and Baylor were all much better while Oklahoma made it to the championship this year and Missouri was still a top 25 team. The rest of the conference slipped, but not as much as the top teams gained.

Surprise: The Pac 10 finished second despite having the handicap of Washington and Washington State, who lost in nearly every other comparison they were involved in among the BCS conferences. The league recovered by having USC, Oregon, Oregon State, Cal, and Arizona rating decently, while even Stanford was not bad this year. The comparisons worked out well enough for them to just slip past a few other leagues that had better teams on average. Each game only counts for 1 point, so the Washington teams can only hurt them so much.

Another surprise: The ACC is the real league where each team had a challenge every week; there were no breathers in the conference this year. You could argue that the ACC had no top 25 teams, or you could make a case for about eight of its teams. The worst teams in the league were merely average I-A teams. As a result, when cross-comparing with other conferences, the whole league would lose to most conferences' top teams, but all 12 teams would beat the entire bottom half of the other BCS conferences. If you rank conferences by their best teams, the ACC would be sixth or seventh at best; by their worst teams, they'd be #1 for sure.

The SEC only finishes fourth, losing head-to-head against the Big 12, Pac 10, and ACC. From last year's best conference, the SEC has seen several of its teams drop in quality: LSU, Georgia, Tennessee, Auburn, Arkansas, and Mississippi State are all unarguably inferior to their 2007 teams, and by quite a bit. Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi were the only teams than significantly improved.

The Big East edged the Big Ten by one game in the head-to-head results, giving them fifth place.

No surprise that the Mountain West finished seventh. They made a lot of noise early for upsetting a number of Pac 10 teams, and for having Utah, TCU, and BYU among their ranks. But that's pretty much all they have: three good teams and a few other upsets. Beyond the top three and a decent Air Force team, the rest of the league looks like most non-BCS conferences: poor.

But not as poor as the four remaining conferences. The C-USA has some ok teams among its 12 members, the MAC less so among its 13, and the bulk of teams are not very good. The WAC has Boise State, Nevada (being kind) and no one else. The Sun Belt, of course, is still the low watermark for Division I-A conferences, with only Troy being respectable in quality. A few of their teams pulled upsets, too, but it's only an upset because your team wasn't ever expected to win, and most of the time, these teams don't.

Best defense of 2008: Where does USC rank all-time?

The 2008 USC Trojans were dominant on defense: they shut out three of their opponents, held three more to a field goal, two more to a touchdown, and two more to just 10 points. One of those held to a field goal was Ohio State; Oregon, which finished with the #3 scoring offense in 2008, was held to 10 points.

So where does USC rank all-time? Before the Rose Bowl the commentators remarked that USC was, at that point, the all-time best when their average points allowed was subtracted from the average game score for the year. I'll look at that measure, adjusted for competition of course, in a bit.

First, here are the top ten defenses of 2008:

Top defenses, 2008 football season
#   Team                       record   adj. ave      
 1. Southern Cal                12-1     6.71 [  1]
 2. Florida                     13-1     8.33 [  2]
 3. TCU                         11-2     9.87 [  3]
 4. Ohio State                  10-3    11.88 [  4]
 5. Texas                       12-1    11.89 [  5]
 6. Penn State                  11-2    13.29 [  6]
 7. Iowa                         9-4    13.42 [  7]
 8. Alabama                     12-2    14.70 [  8]
 9. Boise St                    12-1    14.80 [  9]
10. Wake Forest                  8-5    16.37 [ 10]

USC allowed just 6.7 points per game, adjusted for their competition. Their raw average was exactly 9 points per game, up from 7.75 before the bowl game. But they played a tougher-than-average schedule, as does almost every BCS conference team, especially one that goes to a BCS bowl game. Their adjusted average stayed almost exactly the same after the Rose Bowl as holding Penn State to 24 isn't bad at all.

Florida's strong showing against top offense Oklahoma boosted them to #2. #3 TCU held Boise State to 16 points and #4 Ohio State held Texas to 24 points, their lowest total of the year.

#5 Texas and #6 Penn State had solid defenses to go with their offenses; the Nittany Lions' performance against USC didn't affect them much as USC has a top ten offense. #7 Iowa and #10 Wake Forest built their winning seasons on defense as they didn't have nearly as much to offer on offense, while Alabama and Boise State had more but were still defense-oriented teams.

In terms of yardage, TCU ranked slightly better than USC, mainly due to their extremely stingy rushing defense.

Rank Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  1. TCU                         11-2   201.9[  1]   43.6[  1]  158.2[  5]
  2. Southern Cal                12-1   224.9[  2]   85.8[  6]  139.0[  1]
  3. Florida                     13-1   267.1[  3]   99.2[ 15]  167.9[  8]
  4. Alabama                     12-2   270.5[  4]   71.5[  2]  198.9[ 35]
  5. South Carolina               7-6   284.8[  5]  109.9[ 20]  174.8[ 10]
  6. Tennessee                    5-7   285.4[  6]   99.0[ 14]  186.4[ 21]
  7. Connecticut                  8-5   288.3[  7]  112.3[ 23]  176.0[ 12]
  8. Utah                        13-0   288.7[  8]   91.1[ 11]  197.6[ 34]
  9. Texas                       12-1   292.9[  9]   82.9[  5]  210.0[ 51]
 10. Ohio State                  10-3   293.0[ 10]  112.5[ 25]  180.4[ 14]

The Trojans were second and Florida third, with many of the teams from the scoring defense list joined by South Carolina, Tennessee, and Connecticut.

Back to scoring defense, let's look at how USC ranks for the decade:

Top defenses 2000-2008 seasons (uncorrected for year played)
#   Year Team                  record   adj. ave      
 1. 2000 Florida State           11-2    6.54 [  1]
 2. 2008 Southern Cal            12-1    6.71 [  1]
 3. 2005 Ohio State              10-2    7.26 [  1]
 4. 2001 Miami (Florida)         12-0    7.54 [  1]
 5. 2003 Louisiana State         13-1    7.74 [  1]
 6. 2008 Florida                 13-1    8.33 [  2]
 7. 2004 Southern Cal            13-0    8.80 [  1]
 8. 2002 Kansas State            11-2    9.27 [  1]
 9. 2000 Oklahoma                13-0    9.56 [  2]
10. 2002 Ohio State              14-0    9.61 [  2]

USC ranks #2 among teams from this decade, with Florida coming in at #6. Florida State's 2000 team that lost to Oklahoma in the national championship game. Their raw average was just over 10 points, but they held 11 of their 13 opponents to 14 points or fewer, and faced many of the year's best offenses. Note that two of USC's shutouts were Washington and Washington State and that's what probably gives 2000 FSU the edge.

Let's see what happens if we include all the teams from the 80s and 90s as well:

Top defenses 1980-2008 seasons (uncorrected for year played)
#   Year Team                   record   adj. ave     
 1. 1985 Michigan                10-1-1  1.87 [  1]
 2. 1980 Florida State           10-2    3.13 [  1]
 3. 1991 Miami FL                12-0    3.87 [  1]
 4. 1980 Alabama                 10-2    4.16 [  2]
 5. 1980 Nebraska                10-2    4.17 [  3]
 6. 1991 Washington              12-0    4.56 [  2]
 7. 1983 Miami FL                11-1    4.67 [  1]
 8. 1980 Southern California      8-2-1  4.80 [  4]
 9. 1986 Oklahoma                11-1    4.81 [  1]
10. 1988 Miami FL                11-1    4.84 [  1]

...and the 2008 Trojans have disappeared from the list ; as have the Seminoles and everyone else from this decade. The 1980 Trojans are on the list, though; apparently, 1980 was a really good year for defense, with four teams on the list. Or could that be a result of lower scoring in those days? To correct for rule changes and other things that can boost or quell scoring, we subtract the year's average game score from the team's adjusted average defensive score.

Top offenses 1980-2008 seasons (standardized for year played)
#   year Team              rec    adj. ave    year's ave   difference
1.  1985 Michigan          10-1-1  1.87 [  1]   22.26        20.39
2.  2008 Southern Cal      12-1    6.71 [  1]   26.34        19.63
3.  2000 Florida State     11-2    6.54 [  1]   25.74        19.20
4.  1991 Miami FL          12-0    3.87 [  1]   23.04        19.17
5t  2001 Miami FL          12-0    7.54 [  1]   26.56        19.02
5t  2005 Ohio State        10-2    7.26 [  1]   26.28        19.02
7.  1996 Ohio State        11-1    6.60 [  1]   25.46        18.86
8.  1988 Miami FL          11-1    4.84 [  1]   23.66        18.82
9.  2003 Louisiana State   13-1    7.74 [  1]   26.24        18.50
10. 1991 Washington        12-0    4.56 [  2]   23.04        18.48

This gives a much more balanced view of the relative performance across decades. Michigan's 1985 team still has the best season. In a year when the average score was over 22 points, the Wolverines allowed an incredible 1.87 points when adjusted for competition. They allowed 8.2 points per game in raw numbers, but that included playing Nebraska, Ohio State, and the year's number one offense, Iowa, whom they held to 12 points. Beyond that they had three shutouts and seven opponents held to single digits.

This year's USC places second, a bit ahead of 2000 FSU; the average score this year was about 0.6 points higher than in 2000, pushing USC above the Seminoles as the best defense of the decade. Two undefeated Miami teams, from 1991 and 2001, follow at 4th and 5th, with the latter tied with Ohio State's 2005 squad. Another Buckeye team follows, and then a third Hurricane defense at #8. LSU's BCS title team from 2003 and Washington—the second undefeated team from 1991—rounds out the top ten.

So USC can fairly argue they had the best defense in college football this decade, and over the last 20+ years. If you look from the 1940s on, or even more severely, the 1870s on, the defensive numbers almost become meaningless, with negative averages due to the best teams racking up very high score and garnering 10 or more shutouts, so we'll have to stick the the last few decades.

Despite loss, Oklahoma's offense still #1 in 2008 in scoring and yardage

Despite scoring just 14 points against Florida in a loss to the Gators, the 2008 Oklahoma Sooners finished the season with the #1 scoring offense of the year. The performance did lower their averages—both raw and adjusted—quite a bit, but not enough to drop them below #2 Florida, who had 24 points which was below their average as well.

Oklahoma's relatively poor performance also lowered their standing in the all-time offensive rankings which I posted just before the game. They also remained #1 in adjusted total yardage on offense.

Here are the final top ten offenses of 2008:

Top scoring offenses, 2008 football season
 #  Team                       record   adj. ave      
 1. Oklahoma                    12-2    54.47  
 2. Florida                     13-1    46.38
 3. Oregon                      10-3    44.66
 4. Texas                       12-1    42.91
 5. Texas Tech                  11-2    42.91
 6. Missouri                    10-4    42.71
 7. Tulsa                       11-3    41.58
 8. Penn State                  11-2    40.79
 9. Southern Cal                12-1    40.65
10. Oklahoma St                  9-4    39.45

Before the BCS title game, Oklahoma's adjusted average scoring output was 56.56, so they lost over two points after the loss. But they're still #1 for the year by over 8 points per game when opposition is taken into account. Florida finished second on offense, losing over a full point after facing the Sooners. The expected score of that game, using the adjusted averages for offense and defense, was about 41-40, so both teams fell short of expectations. (Or their defenses exceeded expectations.)

Oregon finished the year #3, followed by three high-power Big Twelve passing offenses: Texas, Texas Tech, and Missouri. Tulsa's strong passing and rushing attack put them at #7, then Penn State, USC, and Oklahoma State fill out the top ten. Three of the top ten offenses in the country were from Oklahoma teams.

In terms of total yardage generated on offense, Oklahoma is #1 as well.

Rank Team                         Rec   Total(rank) Rush(rank)  Pass(rank)
  1. Oklahoma                    12-2   564.0[  1]  210.3[ 16]  353.7[  3]
  2. Tulsa                       11-3   538.8[  2]  240.2[  8]  298.6[  9]
  3. Houston                      8-5   538.6[  3]  144.3[ 64]  394.2[  2]
  4. Texas Tech                  11-2   517.0[  4]  120.0[ 92]  397.0[  1]
  5. Oregon                      10-3   497.5[  5]  267.6[  3]  229.8[ 48]
  6. Nevada                       7-6   479.2[  6]  241.4[  6]  237.8[ 39]
  7. Missouri                    10-4   471.6[  7]  152.2[ 57]  319.4[  5]
  8. Oklahoma St                  9-4   471.3[  8]  225.0[ 12]  246.3[ 34]
  9. Southern Cal                12-1   470.4[  9]  196.2[ 25]  274.2[ 18]
 10. Texas                       12-1   467.0[ 10]  162.8[ 44]  304.1[  7]

The Sooners were 16th in rushing yards and 3rd in passing yards (all figured adjusted for competition) and overall were #1 by a wide margin. Tulsa and Houston were neck and neck for #2, with the Golden Hurricane finishing in the top 10 in both categories. Texas Tech's pass-oriented game puts them at #4.

Oregon and Nevada were both top ten in rushing with an above-average passing game that puts them at #5 and #6; Missouri is #7, mostly via the air, while Oklahoma State at #8 and USC at #10 are more balanced. #10 Texas is as balanced as Oregon and Nevada, though in the other direction.

By yardage, three of the top ten teams are from Oklahoma, and three more were from Texas.

Back to scoring: how did Oklahoma finish among the all-time comparisons? Let's go through them and see how much they dropped:

Top offenses 2000-2008 seasons (uncorrect for year played)
#   Year Team                  record   adj. ave      
1.  2008 Oklahoma               12-1    54.47 [1]  
2.  2005 Texas                  13-0    53.70 [1]
3.  2005 Southern California    12-1    52.48 [2]
4.  2001 Florida                10-2    47.91 [1] 
9.  2007 Florida                 9-4    47.36 [1] 
6.  2004 Utah                   12-0    46.91 [1] 
7.  2004 Louisville             11-1    46.81 [2] 
8.  2001 Miami (Florida)        12-0    46.80 [2] 
5.  2008 Florida                12-1    46.48 [2] 
10. 2000 Nebraska               10-2    45.26 [1] 

Oklahoma still comes out on top but not by a wide margin any more over 2005 Texas. This year's Florida squad dropped from #5 to #9, placing them lower than last year's team.

Now for the 80s, 90s, and 00s:

Top offenses 1980-2008 seasons (uncorrected for year played)
#   Year Team                       record   adj. ave     
1.  2008 Oklahoma                    12-1    54.47 [  1]   
2.  1995 Nebraska                    12-0    54.30 [  1]   
3.  1989 Houston                      9-2    54.28 [  1]   
4.  2005 Texas                       13-0    53.70 [  1]   
5.  2005 Southern California         12-1    52.48 [  2]  

That's really cutting it close. Oklahoma still ranks better than 1995 Nebraska but just by a hair. Now we look at the "corrected" figures that account for the increase in overall scoring average.

Top offenses 1980-2008 seasons (standardized for year played)
#   year Team              rec    adj. ave    year's ave     difference
1.  1989 Houston            9-2   54.28 [1]  -  24.13     =    30.15
2.  1983 Nebraska          12-1   51.47 [1]  -  21.93     =    29.54
3.  1995 Nebraska          12-0   54.30 [1]  -  25.20     =    29.10
4.  2008 Oklahoma          12-1   54.47 [1]  -  26.34     =    28.13
5.  2005 Texas             13-0   53.70 [1]  -  26.28     =    27.42

Oklahoma can no longer claim to have the best offense in the last 30 years, let along the last 50 or 60. The Sooners had finished first on this list just last week, and even #6 from 1940 on. But for the last three decades, they fall behind 1989 Houston and two powerhouse Nebraska teams, including the one from 1995. So the "best offense in the last dozen or so years" is the best that can be reasonably argued. Going back to 1940, 2008 Oklahoma no longer appears in the top ten.

So being the best offense of the 2008 season is going to have to be enough.

SportsRatings Final 2008 College Football Top 25: Utah is #1

The Utah Utes are the #1 team for 2008 in the final SportsRatings College Football Top 25.

Utah finished undefeated and beat four other teams in the top 25, two in the top ten. That's good enough to consider them, as the only undefeated team, tops in the land. They beat #6 Alabama just as convincingly or moreso as #2 Florida did, and beat Oregon State, the team that beat #4 USC.

Texas was #1 last week, and though it may be unfair and I usually don't drop a team that doesn't lose, the final poll has to reflect what I believe. The Lonhorns' main argument for being #1 is that they'd only lost to a 1-loss team and had beaten the team with the best résumé. Now that Texas Tech and Oklahoma lost again, that argument doesn't put Texas ahead of Utah. It also puts the Longhorns in a tie at #2 with Florida; the teams now have similar résumés: a ten-point win over Oklahoma and one loss to a top 25 team. Texas has a few more top 25 wins, but Florida has two ten ten win; Texas lost to a 2-loss team rather than a 4-loss team, but Mississippi beat Texas Tech head-to-head. It's a wash.

USC moves up to fourth after their strong win over Penn State and the Pac-10's 5-0 bowl performance, and they're really quite close to Florida and Texas. #5 Oklahoma isn't far behind either, with losses to co-number twos Texas and Florida and a long list of top 25 wins. Alabama has losses only to #1 Utah and co-#2 Florida, but lags in terms of big victories. Still, they don't fall from the previous rankings.

TCU jumps up four spots to #7 after beating Boise State. The Horned Frogs have two losses, both to top-5 teams. #8 Penn State and #9 Boise State hold their spots despite losing as Texas Tech tumbles from #3 to #10.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Final rankings for 2008 season (1-08-2009)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Significant wins/losses
4	1.	Utah	13-0	wins: =Alabama31-17,TCU13-10,OreSt31-28,BYU48-24 losses: none
1	2t	Texas	12-1	wins: =OK45-35,OhioSt24-21,OkSt28-24,Mizz56-31,Rice52-10 Losses: @Texas Tech 39-33
5	2t	Florida	13-1	wins: =Oklahoma24-14,Alabama31-20,Georgia49-10 Losses: Mississippi31-30
7	4.	Southern Cal	12-1	wins: PennState38-24,Oregon44-10,OhioState35-3,@Cal17-3 Losses: @Oregon State 27-21
2	5.	Oklahoma	12-2	wins: TTech65-21,TCU35-10,Cin52-26,@OkSt61-41,=Mizz62-21 Losses: =Florida24-14, =Texas 45-35
6	6.	Alabama	12-2	wins: @Georgia41-30,Miss24-20 Losses: =FLA31-20,=Utah31-17
11	7.	TCU	11-2	wins: BYU32-7,=BoiseSt17-16 Losses: @OK35-10,@Utah13-10
8	8.	Penn State	11-2	wins: @OSU13-6,MichSt48-19,OreSt45-14 Losses: @Iowa24-23,@USC38-24
9	9.	Boise State	12-1	wins: @Oregon37-32 Losses: =TCU17-16
3	10.	Texas Tech	11-2	wins: Texas39-33,OklaSt56-20 Losses: =Miss47-34,@OK65-21
18	11.	Oregon	10-3	wins: @OreSt62-21,=OkSt42-31 Losses: @Cal26-16,BoiseSt37-32,@USC44-10
10	12.	Ohio State	10-3	wins: MichSt45-7,@Nwest45-10 Losses: @USC35-3,PennSt13-6,=Texas24-21
24	13.	Mississippi	9-4	wins: @Fla31-30,=Ttech47-34 Losses: @Wake30-28,Vand23-17,SCaro31-24,@Ala24-20
17	14.	Georgia	10-3	wins: =MSU26-12 Losses: GT45-42,=FLA49-10,Ala41-30
12	15.	Oklahoma State	9-4	wins: Mizz28-23 Losses: =Oregon42-31,@TTech56-20,@Tex28-24,OK61-41
23	16.	Oregon State	9-4	wins: USC27-21,=Pitt3-0,Cal34-21 Losses: @Stan36-28,@PennSt45-14,@Utah31-28,Ore65-38
13	17.	Cincinnati	11-3	wins: Pitt28-21 Losses: @UConn40-16,=VT20-7,@OK52-26
--	18.	California	9-4	wins: MichSt38-31,Ore26-16 Losses: @Ariz42-27,@Mary35-27,@USC17-3,@OreSt34-21
19	19.	Michigan State	9-4	wins: @Nwest37-20,Iowa16-13 Losses: @Cal38-31,OSU45-7,@PennSt48-19,GA24-12
--	20.	Missouri	10-4	wins: =Nwest30-23ot Losses: =KU40-37,OKst28-23,@Tex56-31,=Oklahoma62-21
21	21.	Northwestern	9-4	wins: @Iowa22-17 Losses: @Ind21-19,MichSt37-20,OSU45-10,=Mizz30-23ot
20	22.	Pittsburgh	9-4	wins: Iowa21-20 Losses: BowlGr27-17,L Rutgers54-34,@Cincy28-21,=OreSt3-0
25	23.	Iowa	9-4	wins: PennSt24-23 Losses: @Ill27-24,@Pitt21-20,Nwest22-17,@MichSt16-13
--	24.	Tulsa	11-3	wins: =BallSt45-13,Rice 63-28 Losses: @Ark30-23,@Houston70-30,ECar27-24
16	25t	Brigham Young	10-3	Losses: =Arizona31-21,@TCU32-7,@Utah48-24
14	25t	Ball State	12-2	Losses: =Tulsa45-13=Buffalo42-24
--	25t	Rice	10-3	Losses: @Vandy38-21,@Tulsa63-28,@Texas52-10

 

The highest-ranked 3-loss team is Oregon at #11, just ahead of Ohio State at #12. The Ducks and Buckeyes both lost big on the road to USC and lost to two other top 25 teams. Ohio State's losses were all to top-10 teams, but the Ducks have stronger wins to offset it, though it's very close. Right behind them is the top-ranked 4-loss team, Mississippi. The Rebels have a bunch of not-so-great losses, but are the only team beside Utah, Florida, and Oklahoma to have two wins over top ten teams. They fly up from #24 to #13.

10-3 Georgia follows at #14, up from #17. The Bulldogs have losses to Florida and Alabama, but only one strong win, in their bowl game against Michigan State. Oklahoma State dips just a few spots to #15 after their loss to Oregon; all four of their losses are to teams ranked #11 or above. Oregon State has three wins over top 25 competition, including a win over USC, but their loss to Stanford soils their résumé just a bit. Big East champ Cincinnati, who had 11 wins in 2008, follows at #17.

California jumps back in at #18, ahead of #19 Michigan State, whom they beat in the first game of the season. All of the Spartans' losses are to top 20 teams, but their wins are fairly weak, while Cal beat MSU head-to-head and beat Oregon as well.

The next four teams all have four losses and are ranked relative to each other and Michigan State. The Spartans beat #21 Northwestern and did so more convincingly than #20 Missouri, who needed overtime, did. Likewise Northwestern beat #23 Iowa on the road while #22 Pittsburgh won by a point at home. The Hawkeyes at #23 are the lynchpin that prevents several teams from falling out of the top 25; they won their bowl game 31-10 and have a win over Penn State.

Tulsa gets back in the rankings at #24 with a strong win over Ball State in the GMAC bowl, giving them two wins over teams with 3-losses or fewer. The final three teams tied at #25 all have 3 or fewer losses but no wins over top 25 teams: BYU (10-3) and the two teams Tulsa beat, Ball State (12-2) and Rice (10-3).

And for "others receiving votes" I designate the entire Atlantic Coast Conference, in no particular order.

Are the 2008 Florida Gators really one of the best teams in college football history?

Urban Meyer believes—and columnist Tom Dienhart agrees—that the 2008 Florida Gators should go down as one of the best teams in college football history.

Can a team with a loss be considered one of the best teams of all time? Dienhart's article is scant on supportive arguments, the basic idea put forth is that Florida played 11 bowl team this season. And they did beat 10 of them, largely because nearly the entire SEC went to a bowl. Here are their bowl team wins, in order of most to least impressive:

• = #5 Oklahoma (12-2) 24-14
• = #6 Alabama (12-2) 31-20
• = #14 Georgia (10-3) 49-10
  
• @ Florida State (9-4) 45-15
• LSU (8-5) 51-21
• Kentucky (7-6) 63-5
• @ Vanderbilt (7-6) 42-14 
• Miami FL (7-6) 26-3
• South Carolina (7-6) 56-6
• Hawaii (7-7) 56-10

Though Florida's schedule was solid, 68 out of 120 teams going to bowls so it isn't as impressive as it sounds. They only beat three top-notch teams, only two of the ten wins were strictly road games, and five of the ten were 7-6 or worse. Does that offset losing a game at home to 9-4 Mississippi?

In terms of magnitude, a majority of their wins were impressive. They beat eight bowl teams by 23 points or more, four of them by 45 or more. This was part of Meyer's argument: "Look at their scores, look at the offense, look at the balance, look at the defense, and it's all relative. That offense … nine of our opponents finished in the top 25 in defense. A lot of people overlook that. Same thing defensively. Our defense finished in the top five in America playing the schedule we play. … They've got my vote as one of the best teams in history."

It's true, 2008 Florida was a balanced team, finishing #2 in adjusted scoring offense and #2 in adjusted scoring defense. They indeed finish #1 in score-margin based power ratings, but some consideration must be given for winning, as they finish #2 to unbeaten Utah in most power ratings where winning vs. losing is paramount.

We can probably assume that any modern team that wins the national championship is one of the best in history in real terms; with bigger, stronger players, you can argue that a modern champ could beat any team at least through the 60s, and maybe through the 80s or even the 90s. But looked at in relative terms, the argument gets tougher. Setting aside that question, I looked at my power ratings to compare 2008 Florida just to the teams of this decade: how do they rank among teams from 2000-2008?

Here are the top 25 teams from 2000-2008 in my Overall power rating, which combines the Strength rating (score margin-based) and Success rating (win-loss based) to output the teams that have been the most dominant during individual games as well as the entire season. The numbers in brackets are the team's rank within their own year.

rnk   Yr Team                   record    Overall    Strength    Success
  1. '04 Southern California     13-0    68.22 [ 1]  36.02 [ 1]  32.19 [ 1]
  2. '05 Texas                   13-0    68.21 [ 1]  40.99 [ 1]  27.22 [ 1]
  3. '01 Miami FL                12-0    60.63 [ 1]  39.26 [ 1]  21.36 [ 1]
  4. '08 Florida                 13-1    58.46 [ 1]  38.05 [ 1]  20.40 [ 2]
  5. '00 Oklahoma                13-0    57.15 [ 1]  29.91 [ 3]  27.23 [ 1]
  6. '00 Miami FL                11-1    49.55 [ 2]  33.69 [ 2]  15.85 [ 3]
  7. '02 Ohio State              14-0    49.24 [ 1]  19.70 [ 9]  29.54 [ 1]
  8. '04 Auburn                  13-0    48.33 [ 2]  22.94 [ 7]  25.38 [ 2]
  9. '05 Southern California     12-1    48.00 [ 2]  37.31 [ 2]  10.69 [ 3]
 10. '08 Oklahoma                12-2    47.28 [ 2]  36.15 [ 2]  11.13 [ 5]
 11. '01 Florida                 10-2    46.99 [ 2]  35.33 [ 2]  11.65 [ 3]
 12. '06 Florida                 13-1    46.12 [ 1]  22.49 [ 5]  23.62 [ 1]
 13. '08 Southern California     12-1    45.48 [ 3]  33.93 [ 3]  11.54 [ 4]
 14. '03 Louisiana State         13-1    44.87 [ 1]  29.10 [ 2]  15.76 [ 1]
 15. '08 Texas                   12-1    44.86 [ 4]  31.02 [ 4]  13.84 [ 3]
 16. '00 Florida State           11-2    44.23 [ 3]  35.36 [ 1]   8.87 [ 6]
 17. '02 Southern California     11-2    41.70 [ 2]  30.91 [ 2]  10.78 [ 5]
 18. '02 Kansas State            11-2    41.13 [ 3]  33.43 [ 1]   7.70 [ 7]
 19. '04 Oklahoma                12-1    39.93 [ 3]  25.64 [ 5]  14.29 [ 3]
 20. '08 Utah                    13-0    39.93 [ 5]  19.04 [10]  20.89 [ 1]
 21. '02 Oklahoma                12-2    39.79 [ 4]  27.59 [ 3]  12.19 [ 4]
 22. '00 Washington              11-1    39.65 [ 4]  19.41 [ 9]  20.24 [ 2]
 23. '02 Miami FL                12-1    39.20 [ 5]  26.02 [ 4]  13.18 [ 2]
 24. '04 Utah                    12-0    38.89 [ 4]  25.92 [ 4]  12.97 [ 4]
 25. '06 Southern California     11-2    38.74 [ 2]  25.22 [ 2]  13.52 [ 4]

This season's Florida squad really does rate pretty well, finishing fourth among the teams of this decade. If you consider the past nine years to essentially encapsulate the best teams of all time, then Meyer is right. The teams of the 70s, 80s, and 90s would argue that assumption, of course.

The only teams that rank ahead of Florida are USC from 2004, Texas from 2005, and 2001 Miami, all undefeated national champions; the 2008 Gators rank ahead of undefeated champs 2000 Oklahoma (#5) and 2002 Ohio State (#7), and well ahead of LSU's two champs from 2003 (#14) and 2007 (not in the top 25). They also rank ahead of the 2006 Gators that went a similar 13-1 and beat Ohio State in the final two years ago. The 2001 team that went 10-2 is also ranked ahead of the 2006 team, as they rate much better in terms of strength.

USC dominates the chart with five teams listed including the #1 and this season's team at #13. Oklahoma doesn't do bad for itself with four teams including the 2008 squad at #10. Miami has three teams listed, all from 2000 to 2002, a champion and two that finished second in the polls.

2008 was a good year for college football, with five teams making the list. Along with Florida, Oklahoma, and USC, Texas came in at #15 and Utah at #20. Both the Longhorns and the Utes had two teams in the top 25, Texas well below their 2005 team, and Utah just barely above the 2004 team, who ranked much better in Strength but whose schedule in their 12-0 season didn't give them nearly as many points in Success as the 2008 team garnered. No teams from 2007 made the list.

Now let's put aside Florida's loss to Mississippi, in a way. The Strength component of the power rating does not care if a team won or lost a game, it only cares about the score of games. So losing a game per sé does not matter at all, except that you won't have the most dominant score margins if you go around losing games. In any case, here are the best teams of the decade regardless of whether they lost a fluke game here or there:

rnk   Yr Team                   record    Overall    Strength    Success
  1. '05 Texas                   13-0    68.21 [ 1]  40.99 [ 1]  27.22 [ 1]
  2. '01 Miami FL                12-0    60.63 [ 1]  39.26 [ 1]  21.36 [ 1]
  3. '08 Florida                 13-1    58.46 [ 1]  38.05 [ 1]  20.40 [ 2]
  4. '05 Southern California     12-1    48.00 [ 2]  37.31 [ 2]  10.69 [ 3]
  5. '04 Southern California     13-0    68.22 [ 1]  36.02 [ 1]  32.19 [ 1]
  6. '08 Oklahoma                12-2    47.28 [ 2]  36.15 [ 2]  11.13 [ 5]
  7. '00 Florida State           11-2    44.23 [ 3]  35.36 [ 1]   8.87 [ 6]
  8. '01 Florida                 10-2    46.99 [ 2]  35.33 [ 2]  11.65 [ 3]
  9. '08 Southern California     12-1    45.48 [ 3]  33.93 [ 3]  11.54 [ 4]
 10. '00 Miami FL                11-1    49.55 [ 2]  33.69 [ 2]  15.85 [ 3]
 11. '02 Kansas State            11-2    41.13 [ 3]  33.43 [ 1]   7.70 [ 7]
 12. '02 Southern California     11-2    41.70 [ 2]  30.91 [ 2]  10.78 [ 5]
 13. '03 Oklahoma                12-2    38.41 [ 2]  31.59 [ 1]   6.81 [ 7]
 14. '08 Texas                   12-1    44.86 [ 4]  31.02 [ 4]  13.84 [ 3]
 15. '00 Oklahoma                13-0    57.15 [ 1]  29.91 [ 3]  27.23 [ 1]
 16. '00 Nebraska                10-2    35.93 [ 5]  29.81 [ 4]   6.12 [ 8]
 17. '04 California              10-2    34.76 [ 6]  29.62 [ 2]   5.14 [12]
 18. '03 Louisiana State         13-1    44.87 [ 1]  29.10 [ 2]  15.76 [ 1]
 19. '05 Ohio State              10-2    36.16 [ 4]  29.07 [ 3]   7.09 [ 7]
 20. '04 Louisville              11-1    37.15 [ 5]  28.55 [ 3]   8.60 [ 6]
 21. '02 Oklahoma                12-2    39.79 [ 4]  27.59 [ 3]  12.19 [ 4]
 22. '08 Penn State              11-2    33.03 [ 6]  27.49 [ 5]   5.54 [11]
 23. '07 West Virginia           11-2    34.81 [ 2]  26.84 [ 1]   7.97 [ 4]
 24. '07 Oklahoma                11-3    33.88 [ 4]  26.53 [ 2]   7.34 [ 6]
 25. '03 Southern California     12-1    37.28 [ 3]  26.26 [ 3]  11.01 [ 2]

Rid of that pesky loss getting in the way, the Gators rank third, behind only 2005 Texas and 2001 Miami, and just ahead of the Leinart/Bush USC teams. The 2008 Sooners are 6th and the 2008 Trojans 10th, giving 2008 three of the top ten teams, and still five in the top 25, with Penn State replacing Utah.

USC still has five teams in the top 25, with the 2003 squad replacing the '06 team at #25. Five Sooner squads make the list, too, with with 2003 and 2007 teams joining the 2000, 2002, and 2008, and the 2004 team not making it.

Now we get to the area that hurts Florida the most: Success. Though they were 13-1, they lost to a 9-4 team. To claim your team is one of the best ever is one thing, but with so many undefeated teams over the years many would scoff at a team with a loss claiming to have one of the best seasons ever. Best teams, maybe; best seasons? Probably not. But let's see how they rank among the most successful campaigns from 2000-2008

rnk   Yr Team                   record    Overall    Strength    Success
  1. '04 Southern California     13-0    68.22 [ 1]  36.02 [ 1]  32.19 [ 1]
  2. '02 Ohio State              14-0    49.24 [ 1]  19.70 [ 9]  29.54 [ 1]
  3. '00 Oklahoma                13-0    57.15 [ 1]  29.91 [ 3]  27.23 [ 1]
  4. '05 Texas                   13-0    68.21 [ 1]  40.99 [ 1]  27.22 [ 1]
  5. '04 Auburn                  13-0    48.33 [ 2]  22.94 [ 7]  25.38 [ 2]
  6. '06 Florida                 13-1    46.12 [ 1]  22.49 [ 5]  23.62 [ 1]
  7. '01 Miami (Florida)         12-0    60.63 [ 1]  39.26 [ 1]  21.36 [ 1]
  8. '08 Utah                    13-0    39.93 [ 5]  19.04 [10]  20.89 [ 1]
  9. '08 Florida                 13-1    58.46 [ 1]  38.05 [ 1]  20.40 [ 2]
 10. '00 Washington              11-1    39.65 [ 4]  19.41 [ 9]  20.24 [ 2]
 11. '00 Miami (Florida)         11-1    49.55 [ 2]  33.69 [ 2]  15.85 [ 3]
 12. '03 Louisiana State         13-1    44.87 [ 1]  29.10 [ 2]  15.76 [ 1]
 13. '06 Boise State             13-0    32.40 [ 6]  17.40 [12]  15.00 [ 2]
 14. '06 Auburn                  11-2    29.05 [ 7]  14.08 [20]  14.96 [ 3]
 15. '04 Oklahoma                12-1    39.93 [ 3]  25.64 [ 5]  14.29 [ 3]
 16. '08 Texas                   12-1    44.86 [ 4]  31.02 [ 4]  13.84 [ 3]
 17. '01 Tennessee               11-2    35.19 [ 3]  21.36 [ 5]  13.83 [ 2]
 18. '06 Southern California     11-2    38.74 [ 2]  25.22 [ 2]  13.52 [ 4]
 19. '02 Miami (Florida)         12-1    39.20 [ 5]  26.02 [ 4]  13.18 [ 2]
 20. '06 Louisville              12-1    37.05 [ 3]  23.86 [ 4]  13.18 [ 5]
 21. '04 Utah                    12-0    38.89 [ 4]  25.92 [ 4]  12.97 [ 4]
 22. '05 Penn State              11-1    38.28 [ 3]  25.46 [ 4]  12.82 [ 2]
 23. '02 Georgia                 13-1    34.79 [ 6]  22.01 [ 6]  12.78 [ 3]
 24. '00 Oregon State            11-1    35.31 [ 6]  22.92 [ 6]  12.39 [ 4]
 25. '02 Oklahoma                12-2    39.79 [ 4]  27.59 [ 3]  12.19 [ 4]

Now our Gators only rank #9 in the decade. 2004 USC is on top, followed by the 14-0 Buckeyes from 2002. Two more undefeated champs from Oklahoma and Texas follow, and then unbeaten Auburn from 2004. Interestingly, Florida from 2006—also 13-1—is #6, ahead of 2001 Miami. Then Utah from this year is slightly ahead of the 1-loss Gators.

2002 Ohio State, 2004 Auburn, and 2008 Utah are similar teams in a way; all three went undefeated but were clearly not the most dominant teams in that particular year. Ohio State needed last-second heroics or overtime to beat some very mediocre teams; Auburn's margins of victory were slight; and Utah had some very close games, too. But all three finished #1 or #2 in Success. 2008 Utah's Strength is almost exactly equal to 2002 Ohio State's, but the Buckeyes won 14 games, defeating unbeaten Miami, so their Success rating was far higher. As a contrast, Utah in 2004 had a stronger Strength rating, but few points from its light schedule in Success.

How does 2006 Florida rate better than 2008 Florida despite the 10 bowl team wins the latter can claim? Well, one reason is the 2006 team also beat 10 bowl teams! Pretty much any team that wins the SEC is going to face at least six bowl teams, maybe a couple in pre-conference games, one in the SEC championship game, and one in their own bowl. Last year LSU only had eight wins over bowl teams, since they lost two games, and South Carolina didn't go to a bowl at 6-6, otherwise they would have had 10, also.

The 2006 Florida team lost to 11-2 Auburn rather than 9-4 Mississippi, and they beat an undefeated Ohio State team to win the championship rather than a 1-loss Oklahoma team. So with stronger overall wins—when score margin doesn't matter—and a more excuseable loss, one can argue that the 2006 team achieved more than the 2008 squad.

In conclusion: I'd say that, based on how dominant Florida was after their loss, beating good teams by 30-50 points and winning the national championship, that they deserve to be remembered as one of the very best teams of this decade. Beyond that, it depends on how you compare teams from various decades as to where they finish all-time. But in my book, any team that doesn't go undefeated has shown a major imperfection. The best teams are both dominant in winning, and simply don't lose. By this measure, even if 2008 Florida might be one of the best teams of all time, I don't think can claim to have had one of the best seasons of all time.

Florida Gators #1 in final power rating; Utah tops Success ratings

Florida finished the year #1 in my Overall/Combined power rating. The Gators topped the Strength portion and were a close #2 in Success after undefeated Utah.

The final top ten for the 2008 season, Overall/Combined power rating:

  #  Team                         rec    Overall     Strength     Success
  1. Florida                     13-1    58.46 [ 1]  38.05 [ 1]  20.40 [ 2]
  2. Oklahoma                    12-2    47.28 [ 2]  36.15 [ 2]  11.13 [ 5]
  3. Southern Cal                12-1    45.48 [ 3]  33.93 [ 3]  11.54 [ 4]
  4. Texas                       12-1    44.86 [ 4]  31.02 [ 4]  13.84 [ 3]
  5. Utah                        13-0    39.93 [ 5]  19.04 [10]  20.89 [ 1]
  6. Penn State                  11-2    33.03 [ 6]  27.49 [ 5]   5.54 [11]
  7. Texas Tech                  11-2    30.40 [ 7]  21.69 [ 6]   8.70 [ 7]
  8. Alabama                     12-2    27.68 [ 8]  18.97 [11]   8.70 [ 6]
  9. TCU                         11-2    27.22 [ 9]  21.47 [ 7]   5.74 [10]
 10. Mississippi                  9-4    25.67 [10]  18.25 [13]   7.42 [ 8]

Oklahoma still finishes #2 despite their loss, with USC edging Texas for #3. The Longhorns' Success rating was hurt by Oklahoma's loss, as their win over the Sooners was giving them a lot of points.

Undefeated Utah comes in at 5th, their lower Strength rating sabotaging their top-ranked Success spot. Penn State, Texas Tech, Alabama, and TCU, all 2-loss teams, follow. Mississippi sneaks in at #10 after upsetting the Red Raiders.

The Strength subcomponent, which uses margin of victory, is a measure of how good teams are independent of their record. Florida and Oklahoma topped the list before their game last night and still do the next morning:

  #  Team                         rec    Overall     Strength     Success
  1. Florida                     13-1    58.46 [ 1]  38.05 [ 1]  20.40 [ 2]
  2. Oklahoma                    12-2    47.28 [ 2]  36.15 [ 2]  11.13 [ 5]
  3. Southern Cal                12-1    45.48 [ 3]  33.93 [ 3]  11.54 [ 4]
  4. Texas                       12-1    44.86 [ 4]  31.02 [ 4]  13.84 [ 3]
  5. Penn State                  11-2    33.03 [ 6]  27.49 [ 5]   5.54 [11]
  6. Texas Tech                  11-2    30.40 [ 7]  21.69 [ 6]   8.70 [ 7]
  7. TCU                         11-2    27.22 [ 9]  21.47 [ 7]   5.74 [10]
  8. Missouri                    10-4    22.42 [13]  20.08 [ 8]   2.33 [31]
  9. Ohio State                  10-3    22.47 [12]  19.41 [ 9]   3.05 [21]
 10. Utah                        13-0    39.93 [ 5]  19.04 [10]  20.89 [ 1]

Note that Utah is barely in the top ten. They often didn't win convincingly, but they always won. For comparison's sake, the undefeated Utah team from 2004 finished 4th in both Strength and Success, and #4 overall. That team had an easier schedule but won by a wider margin. You could say the 2004 team was better than the 2008 team but didn't have the necessary challenges on its schedule to rank higher. The 2004 team would rank #6 in Strength this year, and 6th overall.

Missouri and Ohio State rate quite a bit higher in Strength than Success, reflecting their lack of wins over tougher competition, but their ability to beat lesser foes convincingly, and/or stay close to tougher teams for the most part (the OSU-USC game and Missouri-Oklahoma notwithstanding).

In the Success component, undefeated Utah narrowly places ahead of 1-loss Florida:

  #  Team                         rec    Overall     Strength     Success
  1. Utah                        13-0    39.93 [ 5]  19.04 [10]  20.89 [ 1]
  2. Florida                     13-1    58.46 [ 1]  38.05 [ 1]  20.40 [ 2]
  3. Texas                       12-1    44.86 [ 4]  31.02 [ 4]  13.84 [ 3]
  4. Southern Cal                12-1    45.48 [ 3]  33.93 [ 3]  11.54 [ 4]
  5. Oklahoma                    12-2    47.28 [ 2]  36.15 [ 2]  11.13 [ 5]
  6. Alabama                     12-2    27.68 [ 8]  18.97 [11]   8.70 [ 6]
  7. Texas Tech                  11-2    30.40 [ 7]  21.69 [ 6]   8.70 [ 7]
  8. Mississippi                  9-4    25.67 [10]  18.25 [13]   7.42 [ 8]
  9. Boise St                    12-1    24.13 [11]  18.13 [14]   5.99 [ 9]
 10. TCU                         11-2    27.22 [ 9]  21.47 [ 7]   5.74 [10]

In this measure, which uses no score information other than to determine the winner of a game, Utah has enough big wins—#6 Alabama, #10 TCU, and #13 Oregon State—an no losses, which puts them just a touch above Florida. The Gators beat #5 Oklahoma, #6 Alabama, and #14 Georgia, and most of their other wins are over winning teams. When offset by their loss to #8 Mississippi, it almost gives them enough to place #1 despite the loss, but not quite.

The rest of the usual suspects follow, with notable inclusions of Mississippi—who has four losses but beat #2 Florida and #7 Texas Tech—Boise State (one loss to #10 TCU) and TCU, who beat #9 Boise State and only lost to #1 Utah and #5 Oklahoma.

#6 Alabama lost only to the top two teams, #2 Florida and #1 Utah, in their final two games.

Florida tops season's-end 2008 Lineal Top 25

For the fifth and final time this season the Lineal College Football Title has changed hands, and appropriately enough Florida is the new champion. By beating Oklahoma, who held the title since week 13, Florida finishes at number one for the 2nd year of the last three. It's also the fourth year in the last five that the BCS champion has ended the year the Lineal champion as well. Last year Missouri finished on top while LSU was the BCS champ.

For all of the regular season the title was in the Big Twelve's hands. Missouri lost the crown to Oklahoma State in week seven to Oklahoma State; the Cowboys lost it two week later to Texas. The Longhorns fell the very next week to Texas Tech, who made it three weeks before losing to Oklahoma. The Sooners defended their title against two of the former champs, Oklahoma State and Missouri, before losing last night to Florida and falling to #2.

The top ranks are still dominated by Big Twelve teams, but not like last week when they made up the top six. The SEC is very well represented with 11 of 12 teams in the rankings!

College Football Lineal Top 25 as of 1/08/2009:

lw   #  Team                    rec  bowl results
7    1. Florida                13-1  beat #1 Oklahoma
1    2. Oklahoma               12-2  lost to #7 Florida
15   3. Mississippi             9-4  beat #2 Texas Tech
2    4. Texas Tech             11-2  lost to #15 Mississippi
3    5. Texas                  12-1 
--   6. Oregon                 10-3  beat #4 Oklahoma State
4    7. Oklahoma State          9-4  lost to Oregon
5    8. Kansas                  8-5
6    9. Missouri               10-4
--  10. Utah                   13-0  beat #8 Alabama
8   11. Alabama                12-1  lost to Utah
20  12. LSU                     8-5  beat #9 Georgia Tech
9   13. Georgia Tech            9-4  lost to #20 LSU
10  14. Georgia                10-3
11  15. Tennessee               5-7 
12  16. Wake Forest             8-5   
13  17. Vanderbilt              7-6 
14  18. Kentucky                7-6 
--  19. Nebraska                9-4  beat #16 Clemson
16  20. Clemson                 7-6  lost to Nebraska 
--  21. Iowa                    9-4  beat #17 South Carolina
17  22. South Carolina          7-6  lost to Iowa
18  23. Mississippi State       4-8 
19  24. Arkansas                5-7 
21  25. San Diego State         2-10
        fell out this week
22  --  UNLV                    5-7 
23  --  Colorado State          7-6 
24  --  Wyoming                 4-8   
25  --  North Carolina St.      6-7 

The biggest mover within the top 25 is Mississippi, up from 15 to 3 after beating Texas Tech. LSU jumps big following a defeat of Georgia Tech. For newcomers, Oregon and Utah debut in the top 10 with upset wins; Nebraska and Iowa also join.

Playoff debate: So who plays in the "plus one" game this year?

The idea of a playoff for college football is more popular than ever, but no one seems to agree how to do it. If it's going to happen, I hope it's done right. I don't think it will be, and that's why I'm not too excited about the prospect. I'd rather come up with criteria for determining the impossible to determine rather than see a crappy playoff system.

One of the worst proposals is the "Plus One" game. The idea is that after all the bowl games, even the BCS Championship, I guess, then the two top teams would be matched in a true championship game.

In some years that idea might have worked. Before the BCS, certainly. Since the BCS, there are a few that might work (last year, possibly) and many that wouldn't; after Texas and USC played, you'd have Texas face...who exactly? Penn State?

This year is a problem for the opposite reason. Now that the season's over, if a "Plus One" game had been the law of the land, who would play whom? Florida and Utah, the top two in the AP? Florida and USC? Florida and Texas?

Clearly this would have been a good year for a playoff, and a terrible year for a "Plus One" system. Some years are terrible for both. Again, 2005 comes to mind. Why deny ourselves Texas vs. USC to an upset?

But if it's a playoff everyone wants, let's do it right. Here are some things I think are musts for a playoff:

1. Sixteen teams is too many.

There should be eight teams, max; sometimes fewer, and maybe only two some years (i.e., no playoff when there is a clear top two).

2. All undefeated teams should make the playoffs. But no 2-loss teams should. 

Every year except 2007 the national champ had fewer than 2 losses. Why allow those teams in at all? If there aren't 8 teams with 0 or 1 losses, cut the number of teams to four. Then add 2-loss teams if needed, i.e., if there isn't an obvious #1 and #2.

3. All 1-loss teams from major conferences should be included; other 1-loss teams can get in if they are selected, otherwise they're out of luck.

If the Sun Bowl wants a guaranteed representative, all they have to do is go undefeated in their cupcake schedule. Some would complain that they have it easy, and they do. Suffer a loss and they're at the whim of the voters/computers.

4. Perhaps limit two teams to a conference in the playoffs, or use it heavily as a selection criteria.

This just makes sense for this year. Three teams from the Big Twelve might be too many.

5. If a 1-loss team has been defeated crushingly by another 1-loss team, the game should be considered a de facto part of the playoff and the loser removed from consideration.

Another way to keep teams like Texas Tech who've already been convincingly defeated, out.

Using these rules, this year would have worked out rather nicely.

There were 10 teams with 0 losses or 1 loss: Oklahoma, Florida, Texas, Alabama, USC, Utah, Texas Tech, Penn State, Boise State, and Ball State. Texas Tech (beaten badly, and third in Big 12), and Ball State (weakest 1-loss team) would be out.

The brackets should be arranged so that Oklahoma and Texas, as well as Alabama and Florida, wouldn't meet until the final. We don't want rematch games.

So put USC and Penn State in the Rose Bowl; Oklahoma and Boise State in the Fiesta; Florida and Utah in the Sugar; and Alabama and Texas in the Orange. The Rose and Orange winners meet, and the Fiesta and Sugar winners meet. Et cetera.

But many are enamored with the idea of having 2-loss teams like Ohio State in the mix. After all, the Buckeyes got a BCS bowl. Or people would want conference champs like Virginia Tech or Cincinnati to be in the tournament, or worse, have the Sun Bowl get a bid. And have 16 teams.

This would yield a tournament where a couple of 4-loss teams who got a few upsets would be playing for the national championship.

Some day we'll have a playoff in college football. And I think it will suck as bad as the BCS, if not more.

Final AP top 25 has one big mistake; final USA-Today/coaches poll has a few

Here is the final AP top 25 for the 2008 season, which is pretty good overall. But they made one obvious mistake.

1. Florida (13-1)
2. Utah (13-0)
3. USC (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
5. Oklahoma (12-2)
6. Alabama (12-2)
7. TCU (11-2)
8. Penn State (11-2)
9. Ohio State (10-3)
10. Oregon (10-3)
11. Boise State (12-1)
12. Texas Tech (12-2)
13. Georgia (10-3)
14. Mississippi (9-4)
15. Virginia Tech (10-4)
16. Oklahoma State (9-4)
17. Cincinnati (11-3)
18. Oregon State (9-4)
19. Missouri (10-4)
20. Iowa (9-4)
21. Florida State (9-4)
22. Georgia Tech (9-4)
23. West Virginia (9-4)
24. Michigan State (9-4)
25. BYU (10-3)

Boise State finished 12-1 on a 1-point loss to #7 TCU. Oregon lost three games, including a loss at home to the Broncos.

Record isn't everything, so a 3-loss team can easily be ahead of a 1-loss team. But they shouldn't be ahead of a 1-loss team that they, themselves, lost to at home. Clearly this is an example of the sportswriters not doing their research. They obviously considered the teams to be relatively close in terms of quality, so why not give the Broncos the top ten spot they deserve? Actually I have both teams in the top ten, with Ohio State the odd man out.

A few minor nitpicks: #24 Michigan State beat #20 Iowa this year, and #22 Georgia Tech beat #21 Florida State, but those games were close and the higher-ranked teams won their bowl games, which usually is considered important for the final poll.

The coaches did the same thing with Oregon and Boise State, but they apparently though the Ducks were four spots better than the Broncos, so it wasn't close for them:

1. Florida (13-1)
2. USC (12-1)
3. Texas (12-1)
4. Utah (13-0)
5. Oklahoma (12-2)
6. Alabama (12-2)
7. TCU (11-2)
8. Penn State (11-2)
9. Oregon (10-3)
10. Georgia (10-3)
11. Ohio State (10-3)
12. Texas Tech (12-2)
13. Boise State (12-1)
14. Virginia Tech (10-4)
15. Mississippi (9-4)
16. Missouri (10-4)
17. Cincinnati (11-3)
18. Oklahoma State (9-4)
19. Oregon State (9-4)
20. Iowa (9-4)
21. BYU (10-3)
22. Georgia Tech (9-4)
23. Florida State (9-4)
24. Michigan State (9-4)
25. California (9-4)

In addition, the coaches mis-ranked Missouri ahead of Oklahoma State. The Cowboys beat the Tigers 28-23, and lost only to four teams ranked in the top twelve. Missouri, meanwhile, lost to top fivers Texas and Oklahoma, but also to Oklahoma State and unranked Kansas. How does that put Missouri on top after their lackluster overtime win over Northwestern?

Another puzzler is Michigan State one spot ahead of California. Cal beat the Spartans 38-31. Sure, it was in California, and the first game of the season. But if so many coaches obviously put them close, why not get the order right? They both have 9-4 records. Cal beat #24 Michigan State and #9 Oregon, while the Spartans beat just #20 Iowa. Michigan State's other losses (Ohio State, Penn State, Georgia) were to better teams than Cal's losses to Arizona and Maryland (the other two were USC and Oregon State), but the Spartans were beat 45-7 and 48-19 in two of those games. And using the general logic of final polls, the team that won its bowl game gets the benefit of the doubt, but not in this case.

Shut up whiners, this was a great game

Already the whiners have started.

After complaining all season that teams weren't playing defense against the likes of Oklahoma and Florida, now suddenly the complaint is that there wasn't enough scoring in the game.

Make up your mind, whiners.

Do you want to see defense or not? Because defense means lower scoring games, like this one. 24-14 isn't the high-powered score you see when Oklahoma beats Baylor or Florida crushes Kentucky, but it's certainly better than Oregon State vs. Pitt (a 3-0 final).

Would they rather have seen a rout like USC over Oklahoma in January of 2005? Or like Ohio State suffered the last two years? Those had scoring—most of it by only one of the two teams involved in the game. Is that better?

Or were the whiners spoiled by the USC-Texas game in 2006, and the Miami-Ohio State game of 2003? Sorry, you can't have candy for breakfast, lunch, and dinner.

Of course the whiner in the link above, Jim Litke, was simply using this game as part of his argument for a playoff. Whether you want a playoff or not, bashing this game is not necessary. How would a playoff ensure that the title game was exciting? Answer: it wouldn't. Would it have matched two better teams in the final? Maybe, depending on who you think are the best. It's also possible two much lesser teams could have made it, by luck.

So take your playoff propaganda somewhere else. It has nothing to do with this game, the clock stoppages and awkward timeouts that marred the contest. Nor does it have anything to do with the four touchdown passes, four interceptions, and numerous big-time defensive plays that the game featured, aspects that true fans of the game can appreciate.

But whiners can only whine. And we can only shut out their noise, as well as any other arguments they're trying to promote along with their whining.

2009 BCS Title: Championship game results - final score: Florida 24, Oklahoma 14

For the second time in three years, Florida's  defense held a vaunted offense to just 14 points to win the BCS Championship game as the Gators defeated Oklahoma 24-14. The Sooners failed to score on two critical trips inside the Gator 10 yard line in the first half, stopped on a fourth down and on a goal-line interception. Heisman winners Tim Tebow and Sam Bradford each had two touchdown passes but were also intercepted twice each; the two had a combined 8 interceptions all season before the game.

Tebow and Percy Harvin each surpassed 100 yards on the ground. Harvin, who was recovering from an injury, seemed close to 100% as he bolted twice for huge runs. Oklahoma's Chris Brown answered for the Sooners with an 100+ game of his own, but he did little in the second half.

The defenses asserted themselves early on. Oklahoma's opening drive ended at mid-field, but Nic Harris intercepted Tebow on Florida's first possession, Tebow's third interception the entire season. Then the Sooners were stopped, too, the only time this year they've failed to score on either of their first two possessions.

Florida drove to the Oklahoma 20, then Tebow hit Louis Murphy and he reached across the goal line for the score and a 7-0 lead. But within minutes Oklahoma had tied it: Brown ran like a knife three times through the Florida defense, then Bradford hit Jermaine Gresham in the end zone on a 7-yard strike.

The Sooner defense then intercepted Tebow for the second time of the night, doubling Tebow's interception total for the season, on a bad throw straight to Gerald McCoy inside Florida's own 30 yard line. Brown then carried five straight times: to inside the 10, inside the 5, to the goal line, then no gain on third down and stopped again going for it on fourth as Florida's defense came up with a big stop at the two.

Harvin bailed Florida out of the bad field position immediately with a 46-yard run but the Gators could do little else. After the punt, Bradford guided the Sooners downfield inside the Florida ten but he was intercepted when his throw bounced off the intended receiver and was bobbled by 2 or 3 Florida defenders before Major Wright pulled it in, keeping it 7-7 at the half.

The teams traded punts to begin the third quarter as neither offense was in synch. The Sooners even had a second chance after a roughing-the-kicker penalty but went three and out, as Mossis Madu, subbing for the injured DeMarco Murray, was not as effective running the ball as Brown.

Tebow had three nifty, helmet-down runs on the next possession as Florida drove into Oklahoma territory. Harvin took it in from the 2-yard line to give the Gators a 14-7 lead.

The Gator defense and special teams came up big with a 3rd down stop of the Sooners at the Florida 30 and a blocked field goal attempt. But after a Florida punt Oklahoma's offense drove, eased along by Florida DE Allen Davis who got an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for removing his helmet in anger, and Bradford hooked up with Gresham again for the score to tie it 14-14.

Harvin took the next handoff and had the Gators back inside the Oklahoma 30 after his second huge run--52 yards--and another for 12. A few plays later, faced with a third down, Tebow apparently thought the whistle was blown and relaxed, then had to throw the ball away. Florida kicked a field goal to take the lead, 17-14.

Bradford then suffered his second interception of the game as once again his receiver had the ball taken away from him, this time by Ahmad Black. Tebow took over again with several clutch passes including a shovel pass on 3rd down to Aaron Hernandez inside the ten. He hit David Nelson on a jump-pass for the touchdown to put the Gators up by 10, 24-14, on a drive that bled almost 7 minutes off the clock.

With three minutes left Bradford and the Sooner offense had one more chance but went four-and-out as the Florida defense clamped down yet again.

Florida finishes the season 13-1, their only loss a 1-point defeat to Mississippi, after which Tebow promised maximum effort for the rest of the year. He had over 100 yards rushing to go with his 232 passing yards, while Harvin had over 120 yard rushing on just 9 carries and added 50 yards receiving. The Gators are crowned BCS champions for the 2008 season, but other teams will dispute that; their 10-point margin was equal to the margin the Texas Longhorns had over Oklahoma mid-season.

The Sooners end 12-2, losing only to Texas and Florida who may finish #1 and #2. They beat a slew of top 25 teams but their fearsome offense, which had scored over 60 points in the last five games, missed some big opportunities in this game. Many times their hurry-up style worked, but more often they stood, looking at the sidelines waiting for the play to come in, giving Florida time to settle on defense. While Oklahoma's own defense did a good job, it was Florida's that made the difference.

Who should be #1 after tonight's Florida-Oklahoma game?

Five teams, each with one or fewer losses, have laid claim to the top spot in college football; after tonight, four will still argue that they deserve to be number one. Who should it be?

Florida and Oklahoma play tonight, and the winner will be the BCS champion and take the top spot in the coaches poll. Almost certainly, that team will also be #1 in the AP poll, but three other teams might receive some first-place votes, and depending on the outcome of tonight's game one of them might steal away the top spot.

There are many different ways to rank teams. Here I look at some ranking philosophies and show how I might rank the top five based on certain logical guidelines I consider to try and remove bias. 

Florida (12-1) and Oklahoma (12-1) have three arguments to the top spot: each believes they are simply the best team; they each won their conference, which they claim is the toughest conference; and they claim the top spot based on the BCS rankings. The winner of the game will still have all three arguments intact.

USC (12-1) claims #1 based on quality. They argue that they are the best team in the country, and that if there were a playoff they would emerge victorious. After the Pac-10 went 5-0 in bowls, they claim their conference is just as good as the others and that as champion they deserved better consideration by the BCS rankings. So essentially their arguments are the same as Florida's and Oklahoma's, but they didn't get a chance to be in the big game.

Texas (12-1) has similar claims, too. They lost one game by a last-second play, and think they should have been considered the conference champ and been in the big game.

Utah (13-0) claims #1 based on their undefeated season. While not in a "BCS conference" they are in a conference that went 6-2 against the Pac-10.

Overall these arguments are not that different: they either won or tied for their conference crown; their conference is superior or at least equal to the others; they beat everyone they faced, or would win if there were a playoff; and they deserve to be in the BCS title game.

Two basic ways to rank a top 25 are to rank by who you think the best teams are, that is, who would win head-to-head in a future matchup; or, to rank by looking back at the season as a whole, looking at what each team accomplished. I favor the latter approach, with head-to-head competition that has already occurred being the biggest factor. Since there is no playoff, the projection of who might win one is speculation. I look at a team's résumé—who they beat, who they lost to—and rank by head-to-head competition when in doubt, with score margin of big games considered only as a final tiebreaker. Most voters use a combination of the two heuristics when deciding their vote.

By the former approach—who is actually the best team—I think that the winner of tonight's game is the clear #1. Florida and Oklahoma are #1 and #2 in my Strength power rating, which uses score margin, the most basic measure of a team's quality. Florida is #1 in Jeff Sagarin's Predictor as well, with Oklahoma #3. USC might finish #1 in Sagarin's Predictor if Oklahoma wins, but if Florida does the Gators will have proven that they are the best, and the Sooners will be #1 in my power rating if they win. Texas is #4 in my power rating and Sagarin's, putting them out of luck, and Utah is farther down in both as well.

Of course any of the five might win a playoff, but for a team to argue it is #1 based on actually being the best team there has to be an objective measurement, and a power rating is the best one. The BCS computers do not rank teams in this fashion, as they can't consider score margin.

Using the 2nd method—looking back on the season instead of forward—the Florida and Oklahoma again will have a solid argument. The winner will almost certainly finish at the top of my Success power rating, which uses only wins and losses on a team's schedule to form the rankings. But as I mentioned before, when I make my own subjective rankings, I consider big games and head-to-head competition predominantly. Here's how I will rank the teams depending on what happens tonight:

• USC has little argument based on résumé. The Trojans' big wins are over Penn State, Ohio State,  Oregon, and Cal, and they lost to Oregon State. This might put them ahead of Florida right now, but not if the Gators beat the Sooners. Oklahoma's résumé is already superior, and if they win it will be that much better. USC can rightly claim they beat Ohio State much more convincingly than Texas, but Texas' last-second loss and their win over Oklahoma trump that. And USC has no case to be ahead of Utah, who has no losses and a win over the team that beat the Trojans. There is no scenario I can imagine where USC deserves the top spot when considering the season as a whole—which is why they argue instead that they would win a hypothetical playoff.
• Florida, like USC, lost to a team with four losses. And when Alabama lost to Utah, their biggest win was somewhat diminished. Other than that, they have a convincing win over Georgia, and that's it for big games. They did beat nine bowl teams this year, the most of any team. Adding Oklahoma to their list of victims puts them essentially on par with USC, and beating Oklahoma and Alabama trumps beating Penn State and Ohio State. But Texas also beat Oklahoma, so I'd have to see Florida beat the Sooners more convincingly than the Longhorns did to rank them in front. And as for Utah? The Utes just beat Alabama as convincingly as the Gators did, so I doubt I'll put Florida ahead of Utah.
• Oklahoma, if they beat the Gators, will have a great résumé consisting of wins over Florida, Texas Tech, TCU, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, and Missouri. That puts them clearly ahead of USC, and is enough to consider them ahead of Utah as well (especially due to their convincing win over TCU, whom Utah barely beat). But they have a head-to-head loss to Texas, so regardless of their great résumé, I'm keeping the Sooners behind the Longhorns. It's a principle I follow as much as possible. So I'll be putting the Sooners #2 at best.
• Texas didn't beat Ohio State very convincingly. But the bowl games don't have to be considered more important than any other game of the season. Texas has just one last-second loss and a win over Oklahoma; if the Sooners beat the Gators, Texas will be my #1 team. But if Florida wins, I won't hesitate to move Texas down, as their win over Oklahoma loses a bit of luster. As I said above, if Florida wins by 1 point, I see no reason to put them ahead of Texas. If the Gators win by a lot, that and the fact that Mississippi beat Texas Tech would move Florida above Texas. But both teams might be behind Utah in that scenario...
• Utah beat Alabama, TCU, Oregon State, and BYU and lost to no one. The Oregon State win alone puts them ahead of USC. The Alabama win puts them even with Florida, and their undefeated record puts them ahead of the Gators. The narrow win over TCU—and Oklahoma's extensive collection of wins—puts them behind the Sooners, and thereby Texas as well, but if Oklahoma loses a second game, that consideration loses weight. So if Florida wins tonight, I'll have Utah at least #2, and maybe #1.

That's my take on it; everyone else will have something different I'm sure. I've found that most people change their criteria in order to favor their favorite team, but there are legit arguments for almost any ordering of the top five.

The rest of the top ten will be affected by tonight's game, too. For example, TCU and Alabama each have a loss to Utah; TCU has an additional loss to Oklahoma, and Alabama has a loss to Florida. If Oklahoma wins, TCU might even claim my number 5 spot, with Florida 6th and Alabama 7th. If the Gators win, Alabama will be sixth, TCU 7th.

2009 GMAC Bowl results - final score: Tulsa 45, Ball State13

As they have all season, Tulsa put on an offensive show to take a 45-13 4th quarter lead in the GMAC Bowl Tuesday evening.

The Golden Hurricane struck early, after Ball State's Nate Davis fumbled at midfield. David Johnson hit Damaris Johnson over the middle for 30 yards to take a 7-0 lead just three minutes into the game.

Davis fumbled at midfield again on the next drive, but made up for it one drive later by rushing for a 17-yard touchdown to tie it 7-7. Tulsa's quarterback got into the running game, too, going on a 30-yard jaunt to set up a 31-yard field goal, ending the first quarter scoring with the Golden Hurricane up 10-7.

Tarrion Adams featured prominently in the second quarter as Tulsa went to the running game to offset Ball State's pass rush which had sacked Johnson twice. Two long Johnson-to-Johnson passes were followed by four straight Adams rushes, the last a 1-yard touchdown that made it 17-7, Tulsa.

Davis' bad luck continued with an interception deep in Tulsa territory, but the Cardinals forced a punt which they blocked, giving them the ball on Tulsa's 21 yard line, roughly where the last drive ended. This time Tulsa's defense stepped up and three incompletions later the Cardinals had to kick a field goal to pull within a touchdown at 17-10.

But Adams struck again in a big way for a 56-yard touchdown and Ball State had its biggest lead of the first half at 24-10.

Ball State came back and drove inside the Tulsa 10-yard line but were stopped on the four. Another Ian McGarvey field goal ended the half with Ball State down 24-13.

The Mobile area was under a tornado watch during the game and rain started pouring down in the second half. But Johnson was undaunted by the conditions and led his team downfield culminating in a 15-yard touchdown pass to Slick Shelley. The remainder of the quarter was quiet as both teams were slowed by the wet conditions. Ball State seemed to lose their competitive fire as the quarter wore on.

The rain let up in the 4th quarter but Tulsa's offense didn't. Adams put the ball in the end zone again and the game was officially  a rout, Tulsa 38, Ball State 13. After yet another Ball State 3-and-out, Damaris Johnson galloped 62 yards on 1st down deep into Cardinal territory; David Johnson had his third touchdown pass moments later.

Adams finished with over 200 yards rushing—more yards than Johnson had through the air—and matched him with three touchdowns, and Tulsa had over 600 yards of total offense. For Ball State Davis was only 9 of 29 passing and was sacked twice to go with his interception and two lost fumbles. Ball State's 12-0 start ends with a disappointing 0-2 finish, but it's still the Cardinals' best season. Tulsa ends 11-3 with their best win since their 63-28 tarnishing of Rice earlier in the year.

2009 BCS Championship: Title Game preview, odds, and prediction - Florida vs. Oklahoma

Thursday January 8th: BCS Title Game in Miami Gardens, FL
TV coverage starts at 7:30pm eastern on Fox; kickoff between 8:05-8:15pm eastern

#2 Oklahoma Sooners (12-1) vs. #5 Florida Gators (12-1)

These teams rank #1 and #2 in my power ratings, they're both peaking right now, and the winner will almost certainly be #1 in the national polls, regardless of USC, Utah, and Texas' arguments. The game features both the 2007 and 2008 Heisman trophy winners at quarterback.

Vegas line: Florida by 4.

The Gators are a four point favorite, up from a field goal, probably due to their superior defense and perhaps a small consideration for home field advantage.

Strength Power Rating:  Florida 41.2    Oklahoma 40.7

By the Strength power rating this game is too close to call, a 41-41 tie, maybe a half-point edge for Florida. As both teams have overpowering offenses a high score is projected. The Sooners are far and away the #1 scoring offense in the country, and indeed rank as one of the best offenses of all-time in college football. But the Gators are a solid #2 on offense, and they rank much better on defense than Oklahoma, #3 to #22.

Home field advantage is normally around 3 points; if granted to Florida then the projected score becomes roughly 43-39 Gators. But Florida isn't playing at home; they're playing in-state, and closer to home than Oklahoma, but it's at five hour drive from Gainesville to Miami Gardens. The crowd may be majority Gator fans, but there will be a nearly equal contingent of Sooners. Florida should probably get a point, maybe 1.5, making them roughly a 2 point favorite by the power rating projection.

Yardage analysis:   Oklahoma 42    Florida 34

The Gators score a lot of points due to their defense and special teams play. In the game against Kentucky, for example, blocked punts led to their first two touchdowns and and the defense returned an interception for a touchdown. So when we look only at offensive yardage, they don't look quite as good as they do when scoring data is analyzed. The Gators rank only 11th in adjusted yardage on offense, while Oklahoma is still a far and away #1—almost 40 yards per game ahead of the next team. On defense the Gators rank 4th, while Oklahoma is just 38th. For the reason I just mentioned, I don't put very much stock into this projection; Florida's kick-blocking and kick-returning talent, which generates a decent chunk of their "offense", isn't represented by these stats. The gap closes to 41-35 if full home field is assigned to Florida.

When Oklahoma has the ball
Oklahoma rushing offense: #16             Florida rushing defense: #18
Oklahoma passing offense: #3               Florida passing defense: #9

Oklahoma's offense is like a machine with all perfect parts. Behind the best offensive line in the country, Sam Bradford had a Heisman-winning year throwing for 4,464 yards and 48 touchdowns against just six interceptions, and both Chris Brown and DeMarco Murray ran for over 1,000 yards. Juaquin Iglesias surpassed 1,000 receiving yards while Jermaine Gresham (12 TD catches) and two others had well over 500 each. Murray is out for the game; his replacement Mossis Madu has nearly 500 yards on the season but his average is well below that of Brown and Murray.

Oklahoma's balance on offense is matched well by Florida's defense, which has been strong against both the run and the pass. While they have given up big plays such as against Mississippi, the Gator pass defense is #2 in the nation in interceptions, which is good because they probably can't pressure Bradford effectively, as no one has except Texas and TCU, the nation's leaders in sacks. The game also matches Oklahoma's #1 red zone offense against Florida's #3 red zone defense. One bad comparison for Florida is on kickoffs, where Oklahoma ranks 5th in return average while the Gators are 88th in coverage.

When Florida has the ball
Florida rushing offense: #5           Oklahoma rushing defense: #21
Florida passing offense: #60         Oklahoma passing defense: #73

Tim Tebow passed for over 2,500 yards and 28 touchdowns and was intercepted just twice. Those numbers demonstrate that Florida's #60 ranking here is misleading; if they passed more, they would have more yardage, they just haven't needed to pass very much. The running game boast five players with over 400 yards: Chris Rainey, Jeffery Demps, Tebow, Percy Harvin, and Emmanuel Moody.

Florida's offense would seem to have a strong edge in both departments over Oklahoma's defense, which has been suspect all season and dependent on the offense to bail them out. Florida's O is strong in the red zone while Oklahoma's defense is average there, and Oklahoma is decent at intercepting passes but Tebow throws almost none, ever. The Sooners may have luck pressuring Tebow, as they rank #3 in sacks, but with Tebow's running ability that is mitigated. Also, and perhaps the most glaring comparison comes on special teams: Oklahoma ranks 105th in kick return defense, while Florida boasts return specialist Brandon James. James is best on punt returns, however, and Oklahoma's punt coverage is quite good. Still, look for Florida to exploit Oklahoma's weakness on kickoffs as much as the Sooners do when the Gators kick off.

Game-comparison win %
Oklahoma              47%
Florida                  53%  

Both teams' game-performances rate high across the board, but Florida wins a few more than Oklahoma among the 169 comparisons, and gains a few percentage points more if home field advantage is assigned.

Oklahoma's key games

Wins over bowl teams (7)

• #13 Cincinnati 52-26 (2nd game of season)
• #11 TCU 35-10 (4th)
  
• Kansas 45-31 (7th)
• Nebraska 62-28 (9th)
• #3 Texas Tech 65-21 (11th)
• @ #12 Oklahoma State 61-41 (12th)
  
• = Missouri 62-21 (13th)

Losses (1):

• = #1 Texas 45-35

Oklahoma has beaten seven bowl teams, including four top 25 teams; all seven wins were by 14 points or more, five by 25 or more, and two by over 40. Five of the games were played at home, though, with only one win on the road. The Sooners' other road victims were Washington, Baylor, Kansas State, and Texas A&M—all teams with losing records.

After the loss to Texas, Oklahoma has played steadily better as their offense exceeded even its lofty pre-season expectations, resulting in two off-the-chart performances in obliterating Texas Tech and Missouri. Their worst game? Probably the opener against Chattanooga, where they gave up a safety. The Texas loss was still a strong performance, and they've put that behind them completely.

Florida's key games

Wins over bowl teams (9):

• Hawaii 56-10 (1st game of season)
• Miami FL 26-3 (2nd)
• LSU 51-21 (6th)
• Kentucky 63-5 (7th)
• = #17 Georgia 49-10 (8th)
• @ Vanderbilt 42-14 (9th)
• South Carolina 56-6 (10th)
• @ Florida State 45-15 (12th)
• = #6 Alabama 31-20 (13th)

Losses (1):

• #24 Mississippi 31-30

Florida beat a whopping nine bowl teams, two more than the next closest teams (Oklahoma and surprisingly, Pittsburgh). But only two teams were end-of-season top 25 squads, and only two were true road games.

They way in which they won can't be questioned. Other than the Mississippi game, Florida has played at a high level all year, though they peaked a few games after the loss and Tebow's vow to play harder than any team has ever played. The wins over Kentucky, Georgia, and South Carolina were astounding performances on offense, defense, and special teams.

Though it's understandable that they weren't as hyped to play The Citadel (who scored 19 points) in game 11, and were recharged to play FSU in game 12, the competitive game against Alabama raises eyebrows: did the Gators get used to slaughtering good but not great teams? Confronted with a top ten squad they played a solid game, but showed vulnerability. Coming into the championship game we should see Florida at its peak once again, I believe, and having Percy Harvin back will help.

Psychology

Both teams should be "up" mentally; they both lost a game this season and are lucky to be here. And having lost, they won't be underestimating their foe, or expecting an easy win.

Both teams are well-coached, likewise. Though the Sooners have gone through a bowl win drought recently while Florida has thrived under Urban Meyer, remember that Florida lost in their bowl game last year while the Sooners have consistently played some of the best teams. They won four straight bowls under Bob Stoops after the 1999-2000 season, then lost to BCS champs LSU and USC the next two years. They beat Oregon the next year, then lost to Boise State and West Virginia the last two seasons. In all of these losses, they faced a team that was at least their equal, not teams they should have expected to beat necessarily. They're in a similar situation now against Florida. Their bowl "curse" only applies if they let it apply to them.

Recent comments by Oklahoma cornerback Dominique Franks—that Tebow would be considered the fourth-best quarterback in the Big Twelve—might fire up Tebow's teammates, who took offense to the comment. Tebow is going to play tough regardless. Sometimes these comments have a "feedback" loop where the team that made the comment plays worse, in addition to the other team getting fired up, but the Sooners will play the same as they always do. As disses go, this one is pretty minor, as Tebow has already proved himself time and time again, so a necessary element—that a team/player or offense/defense doesn't get enough respect—is missing for making this really a locker-room rallying point. Still, it was probably not a wise thing to say, as it suggests overconfidence—or fear—from a defense that is going to have its hands full.

Final analysis

It's an interesting game. Neither of these teams can argue that they should definitely be playing in the BCS championship game, but they are certainly the two best teams in college football right now, and that includes USC, Texas, and Utah.

Oklahoma's offense is pretty much unstoppable, but Florida matches up surprisingly well with them in terms of rushing and passing defense. The plays on which Mississippi burned them are troubling, but they've improved since then and have a good chance of getting an interception or two on the normally mistake-free Bradford. Having DeMarco Murray out might not hurt the Sooners when running the ball, but it can't be a good thing. While Brown is still there, Murray's replacement averages just 4.2 yards per carry, nearly a yard and a half less than Murray.

Florida's offense, on the other hand, ought to have a good day against Oklahoma's defense. That doesn't necessarily mean they can keep up with the Sooners, but then again it might be Oklahoma that has to play catch-up with the Gators. Special teams adds another dimension where Florida can make up any gap on offense. Florida's punting game is far better than Oklahoma's, and the Gators have blocked seven kicks this year to the Sooners' one.

It should be a higher-scoring game, as both teams will have success on offense, and on kicking plays, too, both teams are vulnerable. Overall Florida's defense is much better and that may make the difference when it comes down to who scores most consistently. In addition, a number of small factors tilt the game Florida's way: Better defense that matches up better; a slight home crowd advantage; Murray's absense; and the fact that Oklahoma plays considerably better at home. Oklahoma has only faced two teams with defenses close to as good as Florida's #3 squad: #4 Texas and #2 TCU. Both held the Sooners to 35 points, which lowers the bar considerably for Tebow and Florida to keep up on offense. Texas—the only team to beat Oklahoma—has a similar profile to Florida: top five in scoring offense and scoring defense, with a solid quarterback who can run the ball. The similarities may end there, but it solidifies my conviction that the Gators have the edge.

Prediction: Florida 37   Oklahoma 35

2009 GMAC Bowl preview, odds, & prediction: Ball State vs. Tulsa

Tuesday January 6th: GMAC Bowl in Mobile, AL 8:00 pm eastern

Tulsa Golden Hurricane (10-3) vs. #14 Ball State Cardinals (12-1)

At least the GMAC bowl—another low-profile bowl that annually invades January—isn't between 6-6 or 7-5 teams. Both of these squads had an undefeated season in their sights for most of 2008.

Vegas line: Tulsa by 3.

The Golden Hurricane are a field goal favorite due to their explosive offense.

Strength Power Rating:  Tulsa 39    Ball State 38

Tulsa's offense is BCS-caliber—as in BCS bowl, not just BCS conference—ranking #7 in adjusted scoring. Their defense, however, is only 95th, leaving them vulnerable to any team that can keep up. Ball State is such a team, with the #31 offense and #45 defense.

Yardage analysis:   Tulsa 48    Ball State 37

Using adjusted yardage numbers, Tulsa has the #3 offense and #86 defense, while Ball State is #23 and #60. Projecting the game's final yardages and converting those to a score suggests a wider margin for Tulsa, giving them almost 10 additional points.

When Tulsa has the ball
Tulsa rushing offense: #13             Ball State rushing defense: #67
Tulsa passing offense: #7               Ball State passing defense: #55

Tulsa isn't one of those high-scoring teams with a one-dimensional offense: they can both run the ball and pass it. Though quarterback David Johnson, with his 3,866 yards and whopping 43 touchdowns gets the most attention, the running game with Tarrion Adams (1,316 yards) and five others over 200 yards presents almost an equal problem for defenses and allows the Hurricane to switch things up as needed. Ball State's defense isn't bad, but it hasn't seen anything like this yet. They've faced great ground attacks (Navy) and great passing teams (Western/Central Michigan), but not at the same time. Their best hope is for big plays on defense to slow down this offense. They've intercepted 16 passes this year and Tulsa has thrown 21 (18 by Johnson).

When Ball State has the ball
Ball State rushing offense: #48           Tulsa rushing defense: #86
Ball State passing offense: #27           Tulsa passing defense: #94

If Ball State can't stop or even slow down Tulsa's offense, then they go to plan B: exploit Tulsa's weak defense and try to keep up in a shootout. Tulsa's defense is uniformly sub-par against the run and pass, and Ball State is near-top 25 quality in its passing game with Nate Davis at the helm. Davis nearly matches Johnson's passing yards, and though he has "just" 26 touchdowns he also has only 7 interceptions. He's also an effective runner, complementing MiQuale Lewis who went for over 1,700 yards this season. Ball State should be able to move the ball both through the air and on the ground and that's why this game looks like a high-scoring affair.

Game-comparison win %
Tulsa                49%
Ball State           51%  

Despite the slight edge for Tulsa in the average score, slightly more game-comparisons favor a Ball State win.

Tulsa's key games

Wins over bowl teams (1)

• Rice 63-28 (5th game of season)

Losses (3):

• @ Arkansas 30-23
• @ Houston 70-30
• East Carolina 27-24

Tulsa's season was a lot more up and down than their 8-0 start would suggest, with great games alternating with average efforts until their first loss, after which they essentially fell apart.

At home the team prospered, beating New Mexico, Rice, UTEP, and UCF by lopsided scores (games 3, 5, 7, and 8) but on the road they struggled with the likes of SMU (37-31, game 6) and Marshall (38-35, game 12). After the road loss to Arkansas they were blown away at Houston, and dropped the C-USA championship game to East Carolina.

For all of Tulsa's offensive prowess, they were held under 40 points by some rather poor defenses: #76 Arkansas, #78 Marshall, #98 Houston, and #105 SMU—all road games. They scored 56 points or more against #120 North Texas, #33 New Mexico, I-AA Central Arkansas, #107 Rice, #112 UTEP, and #100 Tulane—five of those games at home.

Ball State's key games

Wins over bowl teams (4):

• Navy 35-23 (2nd game of season)
• Northern Illinois 45-14 (9th)
• @ Central Michigan 31-24 (11th)
• #22 Western Michigan 45-22 (12th)

Losses (1):

• = Buffalo 42-24

Ball State's undefeated dreams lasted even longer than Tulsa's—all the way to the final game of the season, the MAC championship game against the Buffalo Bulls. There, Ball State played by far their worst game of the year and lost resoundingly.

Before that game the Cardinals were a study in consistency. Their first four games—still with talented receiver Dante Love in the lineup—were solid wins. After Love was lost for the year, their performances on offense were reduced a bit, but the team put together some great performances like the 31-0 shutout at Toledo in game 6, the crushing of bowl-bound Northern Illinois, and the win over Western Michigan. Perhaps they went into their final game overconfident, or they were due to have one below-par performance, but I would consider that game an aberration.

Psychology

Unless the effects of that aberration linger, that is. Ball State's final-game loss crushed their undefeated-season dreams. Will a month off allow them time to mentally heal? If this were a powerhouse program that had seasons like this all the time, I'd look for a major letdown. But with this team, the glow of this great season evens out the disappointment. Already Ball State's best season ever, the players are looking to make it even better.

They do face the added distraction of losing coach Brady Hoke to San Diego State. Stan Parrish takes over the team and the players should be minimally affected, but it has to be a bit odd without Hoke on the sidelines.

Tulsa is long over the idea of having an undefeated season, but they never really recovered from their loss to Arkansas. Since then they've gone 2-2, with one good game out of the four. Playing in the same bowl they did last season, after seeing the potential for so much better at mid-season, has to be a bit of a letdown.

Final analysis

All the data suggests a scoring battle, with Tulsa racking up the points and Ball State trying to keep up. But given that Tulsa's offense has been slowed down by some fairly poor defenses, and David Johnson's penchant for throwing interceptions, the Cardinals have a very good chance of holding Tulsa under 40 points. The Ball State offense with Davis and Lewis should similarly be able to rack up points.

Neither teams is likely all that charged up for this game after their late season letdowns. But Ball State is new to having a big season, so even with the coaching change I give them a small edge mentally.

When it comes down to schedule, Ball State has defeated more winning teams than Tulsa by a 4-to-1 margin. Both played their share of creampuffs, but Ball State did better against the good ones. Also, Tulsa's best games by far were played at home, their worst ones on the road. On a neutral field they probably won't be playing at the level of the peaks on their chart.

As mentioned, Ball State has handled top rushing teams like Navy and top passing teams like Western and Central Michigan. In Tulsa they'll be facing the worst of both worlds, but teams with lesser defenses have prevailed over Tulsa this year and I think Ball State will do so, too.

Prediction: Ball State 41   Tulsa 31

2009 Fiesta Bowl results - final score: Texas 24, Ohio State 21

Colt McCoy and Quan Cosby hooked up for the winning touchdown with 16 second left to lift the Longhorns to a 24-21 Fiesta Bowl victory over the Ohio State Buckeyes Monday evening. Cosby had 174 receiving yards and two touchdowns, both thrown by McCoy who rushed for Texas' other score.

The game was much more competitive than Ohio State's last two bowl appearances; this time the Buckeyes took the lead before the final drive and the game was hard-fought throughout. A staunch defense and Beanie Wells' rushing in the first half, then Terrelle Pryor's play in the second—with occasional worthy assists from the former starter, senior Todd Boeckman—kept the game within reach for Ohio State.

In fact the Buckeyes led 6-3 at the break, as the defense never let McCoy quite get on track. When he finally started to, near the end of the half, a goal-line interception by Anderson Russell killed what looked like a sure scoring drive.

Ohio State took the lead at 3-0 in the first quarter on a 50-yard Aaron Pettrey field goal; he later missed one of a similar length on a bad hold. Both attempts were set up by 20+ yard rambles by Wells, who had nearly all of his 105 yards in the first half.

Texas was able to tie it 3-3, but Wells again put Ohio State into Longhorn territory, bursting for a 23 yard gain and catching a screen pass for 21 more on a drive that ended with a Ryan Pretorius field goal.

Texas made some adjustments for the second half, and for the entire third quarter basically shut Wells down (he didn't play in the fourth quarter, apparently due to a minor head injury). They sped up the game on offense considerably, catching the Buckeyes offguard—and sometimes offsides—as they drove for two touchdowns in the quarter. The first ended in McCoy's 14 yard rushing TD, the second in a McCoy to Cosby 7 yard touchdown, putting Texas in control 17-6.

But the Buckeyes did not fold like they had in their last several games against top competition. Pryor, mainly through running the ball, kept Ohio State drives alive, and Boeckman came in when needed on passing downs. On the first play of the fourth quarter Boeckman connected with Brian Robiskie for a 48-yard gain that led to another Pettrey field goal. Robiskie had 115 receiving yards and some simply great catches.

Then Pryor ran and passed the Buckeyes into the Texas red zone again, and in a remarkably symbolic play Boeckman came in to throw a touchdown pass into the corner—with Pryor at receiver. Jim Tressel went for two and failed, making it 17-15.

After a rare Texas 3-and-out, Pryor and Boeckman went to work again and it was Daniel Herron rushing for the touchdown from 15 yards out. Another 2 point attempt failed, leaving the Buckeyes up 21-17 with just over 2 minutes left. But like Texas did against Texas Tech, Ohio State had left too much time on the clock when they took the lead.

Starting on his own 21 yard line, McCoy calmly completed 4 of 5 passes to get into Buckeye territory, but incompletions left Texas at fourth and a long two. McCoy hit James Kirkendoll, who spun as he was tackled to just get the first down. He was tackled behind the mark, making Tressel and the rest of the Buckeye sidelines so sure they'd stopped him that they called for a review, but replays showed the spot was correct.

Two plays later, Cosby caught McCoy's short dump over the top, shook a defender and strode 26 yards to the end zone with 16 seconds left, making it 24-21. A celebration penalty gave the Buckeyes a small hope of reaching Pettrey's range as they started on their 45 yard line, but Boeckman was sacked once and his subsequent Hail Mary was batted down.

For the day Texas' passing defense did a good job against the Buckeyes, with Pryor and Boeckman a combined 10 of 25 for well under 200 yards. Though Jimmy Johnson stated the Longhorn pass defense ranked 110th nationally, that's in raw yardage, which doesn't take into account the fact that Texas faced five of the top ten passing teams in the country this season. Adjusted for schedule, the Longhorns were a much-more-respectable 46th heading into the game.

Texas finishes an incredible year 12-1, with wins over Rice, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Ohio State, and most significantly, Oklahoma, all teams with 4 or fewer losses, and one loss to Texas Tech on a last-second play. They didn't beat the Buckeyes as badly as USC by any means but I expected as much due to letdown (I pegged the final at 24-17), but viewing the season as a whole their overall résumé is arguably superior to any other team's, and they have a strong argument for finishing #1 in the final AP poll.

Ohio State ends 10-3, losing only to three top ten teams, and they will finish close to the top ten themselves. The team came a long way after the embarrassing loss to USC, playing Penn State close and Texas even closer, while beating Michigan State and Northwestern in blowouts. While not approaching their pre-season potential, eventually the defense regained its dominance and the offense—shook up by Wells' early-season injury and the change at quarterback—started to click. They won't have as many starters back next year, with James Laurinaitis and (likely) Wells departing in particular, but Pryor will just keep getting better and better.

Oklahoma's offense: Is it the best of all time?

The 2008 Oklahoma Sooners offense has piled up points week after week and looks pretty much unstoppable in doing so. With Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford and and slew of great backs and receivers following a great offensive line, some have suggested that it is the best college football offense of all time. Is it? How does it rank in objective measures against the great offenses of the past?

While it's impossible to truly cross-compare teams from different eras, we can use game records to implement some systems for doing so. Many would argue that the best teams today are better than the great teams of the past simply due to having bigger, faster players, etc. This is probably true for some measure of time; we can probably assume teams today could probably dominate teams from 100 or 50 years ago, but what about 25? 10?

Instead, we'll make a standard that treats all teams equally as much as possible, so all eras are considered roughly the same. Then if we assume only the last 10 or 30 years is relevant, we can compare just those teams.

The process of comparing teams' offensives is threefold:

1. Offensive output is normally measured by score, or yardage. We'll use score, because that data is far more available for previous decades than game-by-game yardage stats.
2. Instead of just using average points per game, we will use adjusted points per game; that is, a team's average score output corrected for the team's strength of schedule. If the team has faced opposition with weak or strong defenses, their adjusted average score will be higher than their raw average score.
3. When comparing teams from different years, many factors come into play. The most recent big change is overtime, which creates more scoring opportunities. Other rules changes over the decades, as well as offensive and defensive innovations, have changed the average score of a college football game year to year. We'll subtract this average from the team's own adjusted scoring average to use in comparing teams from different seasons.

Ok here we go. First we should ask: Is Oklahoma's offense even the best offense of 2008?

Top offenses, 2008 football season (through Jan. 3, 2009)
#   Team                       record   adj. ave      
1.  Oklahoma                    12-1    56.56 [  1]  
2.  Florida                     12-1    47.60 [  2]  
3.  Oregon                      10-3    44.76 [  3]  
4.  Texas                       11-1    43.35 [  4]  
5.  Texas Tech                  11-2    43.03 [  5]  
6.  Missouri                    10-4    42.84 [  6]  
7.  Tulsa                       10-3    40.92 [  7]  
8.  Penn State                  11-2    40.87 [  8]  
9.  Southern Cal                12-1    40.70 [  9]   
10. Oklahoma St                  9-4    39.52 [ 10]  

From the output of the Strength power rating, the answer is, yes, quite clearly. They rank far ahead of the Florida Gators, their opponent in the upcoming BCS title game, almost 9 points better. Of course, this may change if the Gators, who are ranked quite high on defense, can contain the Sooners. But we're going to look at where they rank right now.

Some people think the Big 12 doesn't play defense, which is silly. As a major conference, the teams in the Big 12 are almost by definition superior to the average I-A school, and will play defense accordingly. Oklahoma averages 54 points a game, but when corrected for their opposition, their average score is about 2.5 points higher. Playing TCU and Cincinnati in the pre-conference season didn't hurt, especially since TCU ranks 2nd in scoring defense. The numbers are corrected for home/road games as well.

So we've established that the Sooners are a clear #1 in 2008, at least so far. How about for the current decade? Most people would allow that a direct comparison of the teams within a ten-year timeframe is legit.

Top offenses 2000-2008 seasons (uncorrect for year played)
#   Year Team                  record   adj. ave      
1.  2008 Oklahoma               12-1    56.56 [1]  
2.  2005 Texas                  13-0    53.70 [1]
3.  2005 Southern California    12-1    52.48 [2]
4.  2001 Florida                10-2    47.91 [1] 
5.  2008 Florida                12-1    47.60 [2] 
6.  2007 Florida                 9-4    47.36 [1] 
7.  2004 Utah                   12-0    46.91 [1] 
8.  2004 Louisville             11-1    46.81 [2] 
9.  2001 Miami (Florida)        12-0    46.80 [2] 
10. 2000 Nebraska               10-2    45.26 [1] 

Oklahoma still comes out on top. The next two teams, not surprisingly, are the 2005 national champs and the runner-up that year: Vince Young's Texas Longhorns and the 2nd Leinart/Bush/White offense at USC (the [2] signifies their rank within the team's year). Then come three Florida teams, including this year's and last year's Tebow squads; two teams from 2004 (Utah and Louisville), the 2001 national champion Miami Hurricanes, and a team from one of Nebraska's last good seasons.

Now let's take a bigger step back and include every team from the '80s and '90s as well.

Top offenses 1980-2008 seasons (uncorrected for year played)
#   Year Team                       record   adj. ave     
1.  2008 Oklahoma                    12-1    56.56 [  1]   
2.  1995 Nebraska                    12-0    54.30 [  1]   
3.  1989 Houston                      9-2    54.28 [  1]   
4.  2005 Texas                       13-0    53.70 [  1]   
5.  2005 Southern California         12-1    52.48 [  2]   
6.  1983 Nebraska                    12-1    51.47 [  1]   
7.  1994 Penn State                  12-0    51.44 [  1]   
8.  1996 Florida                     12-1    50.89 [  1]   
9.  1995 Florida State               10-2    49.48 [  2]   
10. 1998 Kansas State                11-2    48.51 [  1]

...and the Sooners are still number one. A lot of great teams on the list, with Texas and USC making the cut as well in the top five. But about at this point the comparisons might become a bit suspect, as the coming of overtime and spread offenses have steadily increased the average score of a game nearly 7 points from 1980 to 2008. So let's look at the same list, but standardized by simply subtracting the year's average score off the team's adjusted offense. What we get is pretty much the same teams shuffled around a bit:

Top offenses 1980-2008 seasons (standardized for year played)
#   year Team              rec    adj. ave    year's ave     difference
1.  2008 Oklahoma          12-1   56.56 [1]  -  26.35     =    30.21
2.  1989 Houston            9-2   54.28 [1]  -  24.13     =    30.15
3.  1983 Nebraska          12-1   51.47 [1]  -  21.93     =    29.54
4.  1995 Nebraska          12-0   54.30 [1]  -  25.20     =    29.10
5.  2005 Texas             13-0   53.70 [1]  -  26.28     =    27.42
6.  1994 Penn State        12-0   51.44 [1]  -  24.51     =    26.93
7.  2005 USC               12-1   52.48 [2]  -  26.28     =    26.20
8.  1996 Florida           12-1   50.89 [1]  -  25.46     =    25.43
9.  1995 Florida State     10-2   49.48 [2]  -  25.20     =    24.28
10. 1980 Brigham Young     12-1   44.54 [1]  -  20.51     =    24.03

Now three teams from the 80s make it in the top ten and rise a bit. Oklahoma is still #1, though, followed by the Andre Ware run-and-shoot Houston team and the juggernaut Nebraska team that lost in the classic game at Miami. At #4 is the true juggernaut Nebraska team from 1995 that no one could stop, followed by the 2005 teams sandwiching Penn State's 1994 co-national champ squad. Florida's 1996 national title winner makes it, and Florida State's 1995 squad turns out to be its top entrant. BYU from 1980 rounds out the top ten. Just off the bottom of the list at #12 is are the 1988 Oklahoma State Cowboys with Barry Sanders (and current coach Mike Gundy).

We can take this back as far as we want. Sticking with the adjusted-for-year figures, let's look all the way back starting in 1940, around the time when helmets were first required equipment and most of the modern rules were in effect:

Top offenses 1940-2008 seasons (standardized for year played)
#   year Team              rec    adj. ave    year's ave     difference
1.  1945 Army              9-0    59.42 [1]  -  16.35     =    43.07
2.  1944 Army              9-0    59.84 [1]  -  17.08     =    42.76
3.  1945 Alabama          10-0    52.21 [2]  -  16.35     =    35.86
4.  1947 Michigan         10-0    47.35 [1]  -  16.20     =    31.15
5.  1952 Oklahoma          8-1-1  48.59 [1]  -  18.33     =    30.26
6.  2008 Oklahoma         12-1    56.56 [1]  -  26.35     =    30.21
7.  1989 Houston           9-2    54.28 [1]  -  24.13     =    30.15
8.  1983 Nebraska         12-1    51.47 [1]  -  21.93     =    29.54
9.  1971 Oklahoma         11-1    49.79 [1]  -  20.26     =    29.53
10. 1956 Oklahoma         10-0    45.97 [1]  -  16.70     =    29.27

With the addition of 40 more years of football, under different rules and conditions, there is of course a lot of change. But teams from the '40s, '50s, '70s, '80s, and this decade are represented. Only Oklahoma survives from our first list, but the 1989 Houston and 1983 Nebraska teams hang in there, too. The teams of the 40s dominate, as they did in that era. If you look at college football records, you'll note as you go farther back in time there is more dominance. The teams that win, win big. And this means their offenses were much better compared to their cohort than teams today can claim; parity had not yet become a notion in college football in the '40s.

Army's 1945 is a good example. They averaged an adjusted 59.42 points (a raw 45.8, but they played Michigan, Notre Dame, Penn, and Navy) while the average score was just over 16 points a game. They also had the top defense that year, making them one of the most dominant teams ever in college football.

After that we see a lot of Oklahoma teams represented, including the 1956 team that completed the third straight undefeated Sooner season and the 1971 team that lost the "game of the century" to Nebraska.

But if we're looking for the best offenses of all time, let's consider every single year the game's been played, starting with its no-rules-soccer inception, brief rugby-esque days, through the Flying Wedge and forward pass. Most of the game's early years were dominated by the Ivy League, and then the game went through a process whereby the rest of country caught up. This process was complete by the 1940s.

Top offenses 1869-2008 seasons (standardized for year played)
#   year Team              rec    adj. ave    year's ave     difference
1*  1918 Colorado Mines    4-0    61.65 [1]  -   14.03    =    47.62
1.  1886 Yale              9-0-1  68.46 [1]  -   21.06    =    47.40 
2.  1945 Army              9-0    59.42 [1]  -   16.35    =    43.07
3.  1944 Army              9-0    59.84 [1]  -   17.08    =    42.76
4.  1920 California        9-0    56.73 [1]  -   14.44    =    42.29
5.  1884 Yale              8-0-1  61.98 [1]  -   20.39    =    41.59
6.  1890 Harvard          11-0    58.27 [1]  -   17.46    =    40.81
7.  1885 Princeton         9-0    66.80 [1]  -   26.07    =    40.73
8.  1902 Michigan         11-0    52.08 [1]  -   12.00    =    40.08
9.  1883 Yale              9-0    57.48 [1]  -   17.93    =    39.55
10. 1917 Georgia Tech      9-0    54.52 [1]  -   15.14    =    39.38

This is the most difficult comparison, but the results reflect truly the teams that had the most dominant offenses of all time. It doesn't tell us anything about what these teams would compared to teams in the modern era, of course, before integration, big money, and modern training changed the game forever.

Colorado Mines is given an asterisk as they played just four games, not much of an average to go by, in a year that many teams played very few games for obvious reasons.

Unbelievably, the 1886 Yale team was actually shut out once (in a 0-0 tie with Princeton, whose defense ranks among the top 5 all time) but still averaged 68.7 points per game.

The 1883 and 1884 Yale squads (averaging a raw 60 and 55) show up, as do the 1890 Harvard and 1885 Princeton teams. This reflects the Ivy League's early dominance, but also reflects a statisitical phenomenon: the farther you go back, the more dominant the good teams are, but in 1883 the scoring system of the game was overhauled and the average score jumped from around 2 points a game to nearly 20 ppg overnight. So technically this system is very unfair to pre-1883 teams, but then again, for some of those years they were playing madcap Soccer-rugby anyway.

The Army teams still represent at #2 and #3, while the California, Michigan, and Georgia Tech squads listed take advantage of scoring reams of points in years when the average score was low. Back then, schedules weren't national like they are now, so comparisons between teams of different regions is unreliable. But suffice it to say these teams scored more points than any team is likely to score today. The 1917 Georgia Tech squad didn't beat Cumberland 222-0—that was the previous year.

So where does Oklahoma of 2008 rank? I didn't fill out the entire chart, but they're somewhere in the 30s, which is quite remarkable for a modern team. No team since 1952 has ranked as high as they do, so it might be fair to say that—at least by certain measure—they're the best offense in over 60 years, and therefore arguably the best offense in modern college football.

They have to back that up with a good performance against Florida's defense. While one game won't change their ranking that much in any mathematical system, they won't be subjectively judged one of history's greatest if they don't come through in their biggest game.

Next up: same thing, but for defenses. Where does this year's USC squad place?

2009 Fiesta Bowl preview, odds, & prediction: Texas vs. Ohio State

Monday January 5th: Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, AZ 8:00 pm eastern

#1 Texas Longhorns (11-1) vs. #10 Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2)

Texas didn't get their shot at the BCS title game; instead they get their shot at the Buckeyes, whom the Rose Bowl contestants both defeated. Will they play up to their ability?

Vegas line: Texas by 8.

The Longhorns are 8 to 8 1/2 point favorites.

Strength Power Rating:  Texas 29    Ohio State 16

The Strength power rating makes Texas a 13 point favorite. The Buckeye offense is the weak link; despite Terrelle Pryor and Chris Wells, they rank just 29th in the nation in adjusted scoring average. They're very strong on defense, though, ranking #5 in the nation, but the Longhorns are #4, and they're #4 on offense as well.

Yardage analysis:   Texas 28    Ohio State 14

By yardage Texas is still in the top ten in both categories, ranking 10th in offense and 6th in defense. Ohio State still ranks 5th on defense but is a middling 66th on offensive yardage production. So how do they rank 29th in scoring? By being tied for #1—with Oklahoma—in red zone percentage. When they get inside the 20, they come away with points almost all the time, earning more bang for the buck on their yardage. Texas, by the way, ranks 6th in red zone defense, so the Buckeyes might not be able to count on their normal success rate. It will be interesting to see what happens near Texas' goal line.

When Ohio State has the ball
Ohio State rushing offense: #17           Texas rushing defense: #4
Ohio State passing offense: #107         Texas passing defense: #46

While Pryor's passing has been efficient and improved throughout the season, it's used sparingly compared to the run, which features both Pryor and Wells as threats. In fact, #17 is a lowball ranking for the team's current rushing attack, since several games where Boeckman started and Wells was injured or not 100% are included. The Longhorns' rushing defense can still probably handle a top ten rushing offense, but the dual-threat quarterback throws a curve into it. Will the Buckeyes give Texas a taste of their own medicine from a few years back?

When Texas has the ball
Texas rushing offense: #40             Ohio State rushing defense: #26
Texas passing offense: #10             Ohio State passing defense: #7

OSU's rushing defense is the (relatively) weak link in their defense. Texas' ground game starts with quarterback Colt McCoy, who has 576 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. The Longhorns have a few other backs, like Vondrell McGee (376 yards) and Cody Johnson (12 touchdowns), but McCoy's option runs have been more effective. If the Buckeye pass rush gets pressure on McCoy his running will be even more important. In all Ohio State matches up pretty well here, but they haven't faced a passer as accurate as McCoy.

Game-comparison win %
Texas                  80%
Ohio State           20%  

When all 144 game-comparisons (each team's 12 games, cross-compared) are tallied up, Texas comes out ahead in just over 4/5 of the matchups. Unless Ohio State plays exceedingly well, or Texas very poorly—or both—the Longhorns are the likely winner.

Texas' key games

Wins over bowl teams (6)

• Florida Atl. 52-10 (1st game of season)
• Rice 52-10 (3rd game)
• = #2 Oklahoma 45-35 (6th)
• Missouri 56-31 (7th)
• #12 Oklahoma State 28-24 (8th)
• @ Kansas 25-7 (11th)

Losses (1):

• @ #3 Texas Tech 39-33

To start the season, Texas beat three out of their first four foes by the identical score of 52-10. These victims included bowl winners Florida Atlantic and Rice.

Then in the middle of the season, they defeated three top teams, including BCS title contender Oklahoma. They fell on a last-second play at Texas Tech, then rolled to three more wins.

Despite beating Oklahoma head-to-head, the Longhorns didn't make the Big 12 championship game. But they still think they have a shot at #1 in the AP poll if Oklahoma wins a close game and they can dominate the Buckeyes.

Texas really has yet to play a poor game, period. Their narrow road loss to Texas Tech was no worse a game than their home win over Oklahoma State, and those were their worst games of the year. The worst you can say is they've played a bad half here and there, but not many.

Ohio State's key games

Wins over bowl teams (5):

• Troy 28-10 (4th game of season)
• Minnesota 34-21 (5th)
• @ Wisconsin 20-17 (6th)
• @ #19 Michigan State 45-7 (8th)
• @ #21 Northwestern 45-10 (10th)
  

Losses (2):

• @ #7 USC 35-3
• #8 Penn State 13-6

Ohio State began the year a national favorite, with a slew of talent back from last year's (premature) BCS title game competitor. But once Beanie Wells went out with an injury in the opener against Youngstown State, something was wrong.

They struggled to beat Ohio, 26-14; then at USC, they were dominated by the Trojans. It wasn't just the offense that had trouble—that was expected with Wells out. But the defense, which was the country's best in 2007 and had almost everyone back, looked awful.

As a result of the USC debacle, Todd Boeckman was benched in favor of Terrelle Pryor, which further stalled the offense's recovery; while Pryor added dimension and potential to the offense, he lacked experience and consistency. The Buckeyes sneaked to 28-10 and 34-21 wins over Troy and Minnesota at home, escaped from Wisconsin with a 20-17 win and edged Purdue 16-3. During this time Wells had returned and was getting his speed back, and Pryor was getting used to the offense.

When they played Michigan State, everything came together. Wells was 100%, Pryor played great, and the defense nearly shut out the Spartans.

Hosting undefeated Penn State on October 25, Nittany Lions were too tough and the Buckeyes barely lost. It showed that they could now stay with a top ten team, albeit at home. The main difference was the play of the defense, which was far better than against USC.

The Bucks continued where they had left off, closing out with three wins and making it to a BCS bowl, where they will get their shot at another top ten team, this time on neutral territory. You can see clearly the slope of Ohio State's improvement in the chart from week 2 when Wells was out, through his recovery and Pryor's increasing experience helping the offense. The defense should be ready, but has the offense under Pryor improved enough to meet the challenge?

Psychology

Texas wants to prove it's the #1 team in the country, and they don't really have that chance here. They'd have to beat Ohio State worse than 35-3 to quiet those who are saying USC deserves consideration. And with the Big Ten's record this bowl season, if it's a close game at all many won't listen to pro-Longhorn arguments.

When you have to start thinking about how much you must beat a team by, you sometimes lose focus of the fact that you'd better make sure you win by at least 1 point. That's the risk Texas faces.

Ohio State has nothing to lose in this game, but could they be underconfident? Seeing the Big Ten go down bowl game after bowl game can't help their confidence. They're facing a team roughly as good as USC. If they catch them on the wrong day, it could be ugly like Ohio State's last several big non-conference games. But catch them on the right day and with their defense, they could pull of the upset, so that's what they should focus on. I'm not sure what it means that Jim Tressel didn't allow Pryor to be interviewed at the Fiesta Bowl media day events, but it's probably wise to keep the freshman out of the spotlight before the game.

Final analysis

Texas clearly rates as a better team than the Buckeyes, and the Longhorns have beaten better teams than Ohio State has. The game will be a test between the two quarterbacks.

Ohio State's offense depends a lot on Wells and Pryor, while Texas depends on McCoy a lot, too, their offense has years of experience with him a the helm, while the Buckeyes are just now getting fully used to how the offense runs with Pryor as opposed to Boeckman, the starter last year (and this year's first several games). And as much as Pryor may confuse the Longhorn D, Ohio State's defense might not be quite prepared for McCoy, either.

As for Wells, he was held to 55 yards by a similar quality rushing defense against Penn State. And for all the talent between Wells and Pryor, shouldn't Ohio State have a more explosive offense? This is Pryor's test: realize the potential of this offense.

Emotionally, Texas must be in an odd place. Confident, yet not in control of their destiny; proud of their achievements but disappointed at the ultimate results. A letdown here is definitely a possibility. The test for Colt McCoy will be to see to it that it doesn't happen.

Prediction: Texas 24   Ohio State 17

2009 International Bowl results - Brown's 261 yards power UConn over Buffalo - final score: 38-20

Donald Brown broke the 2,000 yard mark for the season, rushing for a career best 261 yards as Connecticut came back to beat Buffalo 38-20.

Brown, who wasn't even a finalist for the Doak Walker award, had 208 yards in the first half alone. After the game, like Walker winner Shonn Greene of Iowa, Brown announced he was headed to the NFL, forgoing his senior year.

Despite Brown's output the Bulls had a 20-10 lead in the 2nd quarter due mostly to the Huskies committing three consecutive turnovers on fumbles. But UConn rallied, and Tyler Lorenzen had two touchdown runs and passed for another as the Huskies scored 28 straight points to beat the MAC champions.

2009 Sugar Bowl results - Utah makes a case for #1; final score: Utah 31 Alabama 17

Brian Johnson led the fired-up Utah Utes to a perfect season as they controlled the game and beat Alabama 31-17 in the Sugar Bowl Friday evening. Johnson had 336 yards and 3 touchdowns on 27 of 41 passing as Utah dominated the game from the start and the defense wouldn't let the Crimson Tide back in it.

The defense keyed Utah's 21-0 first quarter spurt that set the tone for the game. The Utes stopped Alabama's first drive with a 3rd down sack, after which Johnson completed five straight passes, the last one 7 yards for a touchdown to Brent Casteel.

On Alabama's next series, Robert Johnson intercepted quarterback John Parker Wilson, giving Utah the ball on Alabama's 32. Five plays later Matt Asiata ran the ball in from 2 yards out, making it 14-0.

Another sack gave Alabama 4th-and-double digits on their next drive to force a punt. Brian Johnson passed the ball three times and rushed once, setting up his 18-yard TD throw to Brandon Godfrey that put the Utes up 21-0 just 11 minutes into the game.

At that point Alabama had less than 10 yards of offense. On their next drive they pierced Utah territory and threatened, but yet another 3rd down sack of Wilson forced a 52-yard field goal attempt. The Tide got on the board to start the 2nd quarter 21-3.

Alabama's only big play of the first half came after a Utah punt, when Javier Arenas took it back 73 yards for a touchdown. The Tide defense started playing better, and the half ended giving Alabama some hope at 21-10.

Things got even better for Alabama early in the second half. Johnson was sacked on the opening drive and fumbled, giving the Tide the ball well into Ute territory. Several plays later Wilson hooked up with Glen Coffee for a 4-yard touchdown throw and just like that Alabama was back in it, 21-17. Wilson was 18 of 30 for 178 yards on the day while Coffee had 13 rushes for just 36 yards.

With the score getting close, Johnson went to work again, driving the team downfield. From Utah's 29, he passed every down, completing 4 of 7 for gains of 33, 10, 5, and a 28-yard touchdown to David Reed; the Utes added to their cushion and led 28-17.

From there, the Ute defense continued to do its job bottling up the Tide while on offense, Utah ran time off the clock and Louie Sakoda's punts kept Alabama starting deep in their own territory. Sakoda added a field goal in the final minutes to make it 31-17.

Alabama's last two drives ended badly, once when Wilson was sacked and fumbled the ball, and later on an interception. Wilson was intercepted twice and sacked eight times by the Utah defense.

Utah finishes the year a perfect 13-0, having beaten four ranked teams: TCU, BYU, Oregon State, and most impressively, Alabama. No team in college football has a better résumé, with only Oklahoma clearly having more big wins. They beat Alabama more completely than Florida did, and unlike USC they handled Oregon State. Utah certainly has an argument to be considered the #1 team. Right now I have them third at worst, behind Texas and Oklahoma. If both those teams lose, I'll put them #1 for sure. Otherwise we'll have to see what happens in those teams' games.

As for Alabama, they ended a surprisingly good season with a down note, two losses in a row. Some of their bigger victories—over Clemson, LSU, even Georgia—don't seem as impressive in retrospect. But their only losses are to 1-loss Florida and undefeated Utah, so they belong in the top ten. It's hard to know where to put them among all the other 1- and 2-loss teams, and a lot depends on what Florida does. Currently they'll place about 7th with me, just behind TCU, who lost to Oklahoma and Utah, but gave Utah a better game, though if Florida beats Oklahoma the Tide may rank ahead of TCU. And next year was the year they were supposed to be good, anyway, so their future is pretty bright in any case.

2009 Liberty Bowl results - final score: Kentucky 25, East Carolina 19

The Kentucky Wildcats returned two fumbles for touchdowns on the same series—the first was overruled upon review—to beat East Carolina 25-19, overcoming a 16-3 first half deficit.

The action was slow in the first quarter, East Carolina taking a 3-0 lead while Kentucky missed their own attempt. But things heated up early in the second quarter with the Pirates scoring a touchdown on a 28-yard Brandon Simmons run. Lones Seiber put Kentucky on the board on the next drive to make it 10-3.

After a touchback kickoff, ECU had the first "play of the game." Patrick Pinkney dodged a potential sack and found Darryl Freeney down the sideline for an 80-yard touchdown and the Pirates—after a blocked extra point—were up 16-3 at the half.

The second "play of the game" came on the kickoff that started the second half. Kentucky's David Jones caught the ball at the 1 and took it 99 yards, drawing the Wildcats within 7 and giving them the momentum immediately.

East Carolina returned the favor of the blocked extra point, however, leaving it 16-9 Pirates, but Kentucky tied the game mid-way through the 3rd on Mike Hartline's TD pass to Kyrus Lanxter.

Kickers Hartman and Seiber, making up for their PAT flubs, each added a field goal to make it 19-19 early in the fourth quarter.

Then came "plays of the game" 3A and 3B. With four minutes left Pinkney, who had been shaken up on the previous series, scrambled and was tackled, fumbling the ball. Kentucky returned the fumble for a touchdown. Fortunately for East Carolina, upon review, Pinkney's knee was judged to have been down.

But two plays later, East Carolina fumbled again, and Kentucky lineman Ventrell Jenkins rambled in for another potential touchdown, delivering a smashing stiff-arm to Pinkney's face to get in the end zone. This time the play was confirmed by the officials. Kentucky took their first lead at 25-19 after yet another blocked extra point, and East Carolina didn't threaten again.

The Wildcats finish a 7-6 season on a high note, while the Pirates, after making waves with early upsets of Virginia Tech and West Virginia, fall to 9-5.

2009 Cotton Bowl results - final score: Mississippi 47, Texas Tech 34

A wild Cotton Bowl ended with Mississippi on top, 47-34, as the Rebel defense did just enough to keep Graham Harrell at bay while Jevan Snead and the offense rolled.

Snead passed for 298 yards and three touchdowns and Mississippi racked up 230 more on the ground, with Dexter McCluster racking up a combined 182 yards of offense. Harrell had four touchdown passes, setting the NCAA career record, and surpassed the 5,000 yard mark for the season but was intercepted twice.

It started off well for Texas Tech; Harrell had his first touchdown throw on Tech's 2nd drive, and three plays later the Red Raider defense intercepted Snead for another touchdown, making it a quick 14-0.

But Snead came right back with two touchdown throws of his own, the second one a 42-yarder to Mike Wallace.

Harrell and Tech regained the lead with a 2-yard pass to Michael Crabtree. One of the nation's leading receivers and the Red Raiders' biggest threat, Crabtree was slowed by the injury he suffered in the last game against Baylor and had just four catches on the day for 30 yards.

The Rebels tied it at 21 with Snead's second TD pass to Gerald Harris, and a Joshua Shene field goal made it 24-21. That was the score at half, though Harrell, on a 4th and 5, nearly broke a run from mid-field for a touchdown, going 44 yards all the way to inside the Mississippi ten as time ran out.

Then it was the Rebel defense's turn to take an interception back to the house. Harrell was picked for 65 yards, giving Ole Miss a 10 point lead. Harrell was later stopped on 4th down from Tech's own 37, leading to another Rebel touchdown, this time Brandon Bolden from 17 yards out. Mississippi was up 38-21, and the writing was on the wall at the end of the 3rd quarter.

But with Texas Tech's high-flying attack, nothing is certain. Harrell's second TD to Edward Britten cut the lead to 10. Undaunted, the Rebel offense marched right back downfield to Texas Tech's three yard line, where Enrique Davis appeared to be heading for another Rebel touchdown but fumbled near the goal line; Tech recovered inside the two. However, Harrell was sacked in the end zone for a safety, making it 40-28, and after the ensuing free kick Mississippi scored yet again, and it was turning into a rout with 4 1/2 minutes left, Mississippi 47, Texas Tech 28.

Texas Tech scored one more time, Harrell throwing to Eric Morris with 1 1/2 minutes left, but the two-point attempt was no good. Worse for the Raiders, they received two personal fouls applied on the kickoff that pushed the tee back to the 8 yard line, so their onside kick attempt was recovered by Mississippi on the Texas Tech 18.

Mississippi finishes the season 9-4 in their first year under Houston Nutt and has recently upped their game to a new level. The Rebels had been winning since they were 3-4, but it's only been the last four games (including this one), that they've been playing at this level. Beating ULM 59-0, LSU 31-13, Mississippi State 45-0, and now Texas Tech 47-34, they recaptured the potential they showed in beating Florida early on. After four losing seasons, the program is back.

Texas Tech falls to 11-2, their dream season ending badly. The converse of Mississippi, their last three games were far below their performance all season, and a bowl letdown seemed a clear possibility. But they had that letdown, unfortunately, against perhaps the hottest team in college football.

2009 International Bowl preview, odds, & prediction: Connecticut vs. Buffalo

Saturday January 3rd: International Bowl in Toronto, Canada 12:00 noon eastern

Buffalo Bulls (8-5) vs. Connecticut Huskies (7-5)

The scourge of the minor January bowl still afflicts college football, but these are two teams I like, Buffalo for Turner Gill and UConn for Donald Brown.

Vegas line: UConn by 6 1/2.

The Huskies are a healthy favorite to beat the Bulls.

Strength Power Rating:  Connecticut 27    Buffalo 23

Buffalo is better in scoring offense than Connecticut, outranking them 41st to 61st, but the Huskies have a bigger advantage on defense, 30th to 76th. Combined, this leads to a projection of a narrow Connecticut win. Buffalo is playing a lot closer to home, which could narrow the projected spread further, but considering the game is in a different country and UConn is in roughly the same region I don't see giving the Bulls more than a point for it, possibly.

Yardage analysis:   Connecticut 31   Buffalo 16

The Huskies offense ranks 61st both by adjusted yardage and adjust scoring,  but their defense is even stingier with yards that points, ranking #9 in the nation by that measure. Buffalo fares less well, ranking 62nd on offense and 89th on defense, both numbers lower than their scoring rankings. This leads to a wider margin for the Huskies.

One reason the Bulls offense may score more points than their yardage would indicate is that they limit turnovers; Buffalo is 5th in the country in fewest turnovers with just 13 on the season.

When Connecticut has the ball
Connecticut rushing offense: #11           Buffalo rushing defense: #92
Connecticut passing offense: #110         Buffalo passing defense: #95

UConn's #61 offensive ranking makes some sense—they're nearly top ten in rushing yardage, and nearly bottom 10 in passing yardage. Donald Brown is the nation's leading rusher, averaging over 150 yards per game, and needs 178 to pass 2,000 yards for the season. With Tyler Lorenzen hurt most of the year UConn's quarterbacks have been dismal this season, throwing just 4 touchdown passes and 17(!) interceptions. Given that Buffalo's defense is homogenously weak, the Huskies should hand the ball off the Donald Brown every single down. That's just barely an exagerration.

When Buffalo has the ball
Buffalo rushing offense: #77             Connecticut rushing defense: #27
Buffalo passing offense: #42             Connecticut passing defense: #11

Buffalo has a quarterback that UConn wishes it had. Drew Willy has passed for over 3,000 yards and has a 5:1 TD to int ratio, throwing 25 TDs and just 5 interceptions. Throw in 1,000 yard rusher James Starks and you have the makings of a strong offense, though Buffalo's competition has been fairly weak on defense in general. Connecticut has the means to slow down both the run and the pass, ranking high in interceptions. It will be a test to see if they can pick off Willy, who only has one interception in the last seven games.

Game-comparison win %
Buffalo               40%
Connecticut        60%  

UConn has a slight but solid edge when game performances are cross-compared. If you give Buffalo full home field advantage it narrows considerably, but the Huskies still win the majority.

Connecticut's key games

Wins over bowl teams (1)

• #13 Cincinnati 40-16 (8th game of season)

Losses (5):

• @ North Carolina 38-12
• @ Rutgers 12-10
• West Virginia 35-13
• @ South Florida 17-13
• #20 Pittsburgh 34-10

Connecticut beat only one bowl team this year, but it was a good, dominant win over Big East champ Cincinnati. Other highlights were their 45-10 pasting of Virginia in game three, which nearly matched USC's score against the Cavaliers. Other than that, there wasn't much, as Cincy was the only team with a winning record the Huskies beat. For road wins, they needed overtime to beat Temple, 12-9, in game 2; defeated Louisville 26-21 (game 5); and clobbered Syracuse 39-14 (game 10).

On the other hand they didn't lose to any losing teams. They played Rutgers and South Florida close on the road, but had terrible games in losing to North Carolina, West Virginia, and Pitt by an average of 24 points.

Buffalo's key games

Wins over bowl teams (1):

• #14 Ball State 42-24 (13th game of season)

Losses (5):

• @ #20 Pittsburgh 27-16
• @ Missouri 42-21
• @ Central Michigan 27-25
• Western Michigan 34-28ot
• Kent State 24-21
  

Like UConn the Bulls had only one bowl team victory, but it was a doozy, knocking Ball State off their undefeated perch. Apart from that, their record is similar to UConn's: no other wins over winning teams. They also lost to common opponent Pittsburgh, beat Temple in a very close game. They did have one loss to a non-bowl team, however, losing to Kent State 24-21 in their worst effort of the season. But they followed that with the Ball State win.

What's interesting about Buffalo is their series of close games, most of them wins. After crushing UTEP in their opener, they went 1-4 to tough competition. In that stretch they beat Temple on a last-second pass, missed a game-winning field goal against Central Michigan, and lost in overtime to Western Michigan, who hit a last-second TD pass of their own to force the extra period. The Bulls finished 6-1, though, beating Army as a tying field goal missed, beating Akron in four overtimes, and beating Bowling Green in double overtime. The loss to Kent State made seven games that could have gone either way, putting the Bulls as good as 11-2 or as bad as 3-9.

Psychology

Buffalo is a team on a roll. Coach Turner Gill, turned down by Auburn and even more inexplicably by Syracuse, will be back next season. Fans are excited about the bowl game, which is within driving distance across the border. They've won six of their last seven games and are coming off the school's biggest win over undefeated Ball State to win the MAC crown.

Connecticut's year was a step down. It wasn't unexpected, and they did better than a lot of people though they would this season, though they limped to a 2-5 finish. In terms of this bowl game, there might not seem to be much point to it for players and fans.

Final analysis

Buffalo may have the emotional edge, but UConn matches up with them quite well on offense and defense. Special teams might be a different matter, as UConn has had six punts blocked this year and kicker Tony Caravino missed three field goals against both Temple and Rutgers. But the Huskie defense should slow down Willy and the Bulls, and Donald Brown looks to have a big game.

Even Lorenzen, with a month off to heal, may be in better form. He was much better last season, and since the injury he hasn't played well. Luckily, Buffalo doesn't intercept many passes, but then again maybe Connecticut won't have to go to the air.

Buffalo beat Ball State, so they have a chance against Connecticut. They're certainly on more of a roll and should have good crowd support in Toronto. But I think Donald Brown will have a great day with a good chance of surpassing 2,000 yards for the season, and get in the end zone multiple times for the Huskies, who will have to fight to keep this game from being another one of Buffalo's nail-biters.

Prediction:  Connecticut 31   Buffalo 28

Conference Bowl performance: Pac 10 is 5-0 - is that such a big deal?

The latest topic of discussing seems to be the Pac 10's 5-0 bowl record, which some say proves the conference was too maligned this year, or that they might actually be the best conference. I say: yes, they were underrated this year, but: you have to put their 5-0 performance in perspective.

After the Pac-10 went 1-6 against Mountain West teams in the regular season this year, many were calling the conference the worst BCS conference, adding to the list of the Big Ten, ACC, and Big East, leagues that were also called the worst BCS conference at times this year. Certainly, the losses didn't look good:

• Utah over Oregon State 31-28
• BYU over Washington 28-27
• BYU over UCLA 59-0
• New Mexico over Arizona 36-28
• UNLV over Arizona State 23-20ot
• TCU over Stanford 31-14

But most of the teams that lost weren't the Pac-10's top teams. Washington had overtaken over Stanford's cellar spot, and Arizona State and UCLA were a bust this year. The Mountain West's best team, Utah, narrowly beat Oregon State, which should be expected. The only real upsets in retrospect were New Mexico defeating Arizona and UNLV beating ASU.

This is, of course, after we had adjusted our thinking about the teams in both conferences, by devaluing the Pac 10 and elevating the Mountain West. Which brings us to the bowl performance. Bowl record is often a very poor indicator of how conference strength because conference strength determines to a large measure the matchups that a conference gets.

Put another way, the Pac 10 might have won its bowl games because their teams were rated lower and got easier matchups. Highly-touted conferences sometimes do poorly after getting tougher teams to play, and vice versa. It's better to compare a conference's bowl record against their projected record, i.e., which games they were favored in. The Pac-10 was supposed to be 4-1, so they exceeded expectation but not by much. Upset winners names are in green:

Bowl        Teams           Favorite   Spread   Winner   Score
Las Vegas   Arizona-BYU     Arizona      3      Arizona  31-21
Emerald     Cal-Miami       Cal          10     Cal      24-17
Holiday     Oregon-OK St.   Oklahoma St  3      Oregon   42-31
Sun Bowl    Oregon St-Pitt  Oregon St    2.5    Oregon St 3-0
Rose        USC-Penn St     USC          9      USC      38-24

Oregon pulled the minor upset in the Holiday Bowl but other than that things went as planned. In all, two Pac-10 teams were roughly 10 point favorites, two were 3 point favorites, and one was a 3 point underdog.

Another way to look at the results is to see how a conference does against the spread, which naturally factors in expectations. On the table above, scores are in green or red depending on whether they beat the spread. By this measure, the Pac-10 is 4-1, or 3-1-1 depending on what line you use for Oregon State's 3-0 win vs. Pitt. A few bowl games had results within the range of the spread's movement.

The other conference people have been talking about in terms of bowl performance is the Big 10, who is 1-6 with Ohio State's loss to Texas. Is their record really that bad? Let's look. Same color scheme.

Bowl        Teams           Favorite   Spread   Winner   Score
Champs      Wisconsin-FSU   FSU        5 1/2    FSU      42-13
Alamo       Nwestern-Mizzou Missouri   12 1/2   Mizzou   30-23ot
Insight     Minnesota-KU    Kansas     9        Kansas   42-21
Outback     Iowa-S.Carolina Iowa       4        Iowa     31-10
Capital One Mich.St-Georgia Georgia    7 1/2    Georgia  24-12
Rose        Penn St-USC     USC        9        USC      38-24
Fiesta      OSU-Texas       Texas      8 1/2    Texas    24-21

It turns out that the Big Ten has done exactly as expected so far when going 1-6. Iowa won, everyone else lost. Iowa also beat the spread, as did Northwestern and Ohio State, but the other teams lost against the spread, especially Wisconsin and Minnesota, making the Big Ten 3-4 in that measure.

How are the other conferences doing?

Conference   Expected    Actual   diff    vs. spread  diff   points
SEC          3-5         6-2      +3          6-2      +4     11
Pac 10       4-1         5-0      +1          3-1-1    +2      8
C-USA        4-2         4-2      even        4-2      +2      4
Mtn. West    1-4         3-2      +2          2-3      -1      2
Big East     5-1         4-2      -1          2-2-2   even     1
Sun Belt     1-1         1-1      even        1-1     even     0
(Ind.)       1-1         1-1      even        1-1     even     0
ACC          5-5         4-6      -1          6-3-1    +3      0
Big 12       5-2         4-3      -1          2-5      -3     -3
WAC          3-2         1-4      -2          2-3      -1     -6
Big Ten      1-6         1-6      even        3-4      -1     -6
MAC          1-4         0-5      -1          0-5      -5     -11

Through the bowl season, only the Pac 10, SEC, and Mountain West exceeded expectations in terms of winning and losing, with the SEC winning three more games than expected.

The Pac 10, ACC, SEC, and C-USA beat the spread, with the SEC beating the spread in four more games than they lost against the spread.

The Pac 10 and SEC are positive in both categories, with the SEC's combined +7 putting it on top in terms of exceeding expectations. The "points" column adds wins, subtracts losses, and adds the differences in expected wins and beating the spread to combine the aspects of winning and exceeding expectations.

Worst performers are the WAC (-2 winning) and the MAC (-5 against the spread).

The Big 12 finished 2-5 against the spread.

2009 Orange Bowl results - final score: Virginia Tech 20, Cincinnati 7

Virginia Tech's defense came up big all day, and stopped Cincinnati on 4th down from the one yard line mid-way through the fourth quarter to preserve a 20-7 victory. Running back Darren Evans, quarterback Tyrod Taylor, and kicker Dustin Keys provided what little offense the Hokies needed to win the game.

After Cincinnati quarterback Tony Pike's TD throw on the Bearcats' first drive—a 15-yard strike to Marcus Gilyard—the Hokies scored twenty unanswered points in the 2nd through 4th quarters. Taylor rushed for a 17-yard score, then Keys hit a 43-yard field goal at the end of the half to give Virginia Tech a 10-7 lead.  Another field goal on the first drive of the 3rd quarter made it 13-7.

The Hokie defense frustrated Cincinnati's offense, forcing punts and intercepting Pike four times. The third interception came in the fourth quarter and put Virgina at the Cincinnati 10 yard line, leading to the last touchdown, a six-yard Evans run. Evans finished with 154 yards.

With twelve minutes left in the game Pike drove Cincinnati down to the Hokie four yard line. Two incompletions and a short run left them at fourth and one. Pike attempted to run it in but was stopped by the Hokie defense, which held Cincinnati under 75 rushing yards for the day. 

A Tech drive ran all but two minutes off the clock, and once Cincinnati got the ball back Pike was intercepted immediately yet again.

Virginia Tech improves to 10-4 on the year, their fifth 10-win season in a row, something only Texas and USC can also claim. Cincinnati falls to 11-3, their second 10-win season in a row but only their second in the history of the program as a I-A team.

2009 Sugar Bowl preview, odds, & prediction: Utah vs. Alabama

Friday January 2nd: Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA 8:00 pm eastern

#4 Utah Utes (12-0) vs. #6 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1)

The only game other than the BCS title game to feature two teams with 12 wins.

Vegas line: Alabama by 9.

Alabama is a big favorite in the oddsmakers' eyes, ranging from 9 to 10 points.

Strength Power Rating:      Alabama 26   Utah 25

But the Strength power rating has these teams matched almost perfectly evenly, with Alabama ranking 9th and Utah 13th. Both teams have had close calls and both have wins over strong competition. One possible factor is home field advantage, as Alabama will be playing much closer to home and have the bigger crowd, but I wouldn't give more than a point or two to the Tide.

Alabama's defense is a solid #8 to Utah's #20, while their offense ranks 23rd to Utah's #14.

Yardage analysis:   Alabama 21   Utah 17

By yardage the Tide margin grows a bit. In yardage the Tide defense is third in the country, the offense just 39th. Utah's defense is good, too, ranking 12th, and the offense 31st. With the defenses ranking higher and offenses lower, this leads to a lower scoring projection, but both squads have defenses and special teams that add to the effectiveness of their offenses.

When Alabama has the ball
Alabama rushing offense: #17           Utah rushing defense: #13
Alabama passing offense: #89           Utah passing defense: #35

The key matchup here is Alabama's ground game against Utah's rushing defense, both of which rank in the top 25 nationally. Glen Coffee has 1,347 yards this season, and Mark Ingram adds 702 yards and 12 touchdowns. This is the Tide's main weapon on offense, and the passing game sometimes plays off that success to be effective itself, sometimes not. John Parker Wilson has had another mixed year, leading the team effectively but not spectacularly, but with receiver Julio Jones in the mix the passing game is always  a potential threat, meaning the Utes can't focus on the run.

When Utah has the ball
Utah rushing offense: #39             Alabama rushing defense: #5
Utah passing offense: #37             Alabama passing defense: #23

Utah has a balanced, solid but not overwhelming offense. Quarterback Brian Johnson is "the man" for Utah, and can be unstoppable when Utah needs points. Completing 68% of his throws for 2,636 yards and 24 touchdowns against 9 interceptions, Johnson is a running threat, too. Alabama's defensive line will provide a stiff challenge for the Ute running game, which managed just 45 yards against TCU.

Kicker Louie Sakoda could be the X-factor. He's hit 21 of 23 field goals this season and averaged almost 42 yards a punt.

Game-comparison win %
Utah                   44% /40%
Alabama             56% /60% 

Alabama's game performances rate higher than Utah's, giving an estimate of a 56% likelihood of a Tide victory. If home field advantage is assigned, that estimate rises slightly to 60%.

Alabama's key games

Wins over bowl teams (5)

• = Clemson 34-10 (1st game of season)
• @ #17 Georgia 41-30 (5th)
  
• Kentucky 17-14 (6th)
• Mississippi 24-20 (7th)
• @ LSU 27-21 (ot) (10th)

Losses (1):

• = #5 Florida 31-20

Alabama kicked off the 2008 season in style, dominating highly-ranked Clemson on a neutral field. In retrospect it wasn't quite as impressive, and they followed it with a 20-6 dud against Tulane. But their win at Georgia, which they led 31-0 at the half, propelled them to #2 in the AP poll.

After that they again had some games that weren't so dominant: Kentucky 17-14, and Mississippi 24-20. Some questioned their commitment to non-marquee games, but the truth was their offense didn't always play as well as the defense, which saved them again against LSU. But few predicted that they'd be able to beat Florida in the SEC title game, and they couldn't, though they made a very decent showing.

Utah's key games

Wins over bowl teams (5):

• @ Air Force 30-23 (4th game of season)
• #24 Oregon State 31-28 (6th)
• Colorado State 49-16 (8th)
• #11 TCU 13-10 (10th)
  
• #16 BYU 48-24 (12th)
  

Losses (0):

• n/a

Utah is not this year's Hawaii. First, their schedule was far tougher than the Warriors' creampuff-fest a year ago. Second, Utah took care of business, beating teams convincingly.

The opener at Michigan, a 25-23 win, was celebrated as an upset, but it was really the Utes worst-played game of the season. They ended with five wins over bowl teams—same as Alabama—but with three wins over top 25 competition. In three of these wins, they needed late scores or comebacks to win, demonstrating both their vulnerability and their toughness.

Only one bowl-team win was a road game, and the struggles at Michigan and New Mexico (13-10) suggest that the Sugar Bowl trip, a near-road game, might be troublesome. But as for whether they're deserving, they arguably have the best résumé of anyone, and can legitimately argue (with about six other teams) that they should have been in the national title game.

Psychology

Alabama's situation is unfortunate. A game away from the national title, they lose a well-played contest and fall out of consideration. Now shooting for #2, they draw Utah, an opponent that doesn't get nearly the respect a strong BCS opponent would, and are put in a virtual no-win situation as far as the polls go. There is some danger they won't take the Utes seriously, especially if they view them as another Hawai'i to be slaughtered by a BCS team in the Sugar Bowl.

Utah has a lot to prove but the fans wanted to play Texas in the Fiesta Bowl, both for easier travel and because Texas is still a "live" opponent for the national title, having defeated Oklahoma this season. They don't just want to beat a team that Florida already beat. Fans still recall having to play 8-4 Pitt when they had Urban Meyer coaching and Alex Smith at quarterback, a win which proved nothing. Alabama is a huge step up from that, however, and the players—most of whom weren't around back then—only care about finishing a perfect season.

Final analysis

Alabama plays best in big games, against highly-rated teams, and this certainly counts. But it's not a BCS opponent, so there's a chance we won't see the Tide at its best. The ground game and controlling the clock will be Alabama's strength, but Utah's D is good and they're never out of the game with Brian Johnson and Louie Sakoda.

Utah's offense very well could stall for most of the game against the Tide defense. They're not at their best away from home, and the crowd will be pro-Tide. I see them falling behind like they did against TCU, another team with a great defense, and playing catch-up when Johnson starts to take more chances later in the game.

I think the final score will be a lot closer than the oddsmakers are suggesting. These teams are not Georgia and Hawaii from 2007, they are very similar to Oklahoma and Boise State from the prior year—both borderline top ten teams according to power ratings that consider score margin. There are a lot of key players to consider—Coffee, Julio Jones, Johnson, Sakoda—who could give their team the win. I'm sticking with the power rating's projection, but giving Alabama a consideration for home crowd—or rather, taking a bit away from Utah for that reason—and calling for an Alabama win in a low-scoring contest.

Prediction: Alabama 21  Utah 17

2009 Gator Bowl results - final score: Nebraska 26, Clemson 21

The Nebraska Cornhuskers came back from a 21-10 second-half deficit to win the Gator bowl 26-21, stopping a Clemson drive in the final minutes to seal the victory. Quenton Castille rushed for 124 yards for the Cornhuskers, while Joe Ganz threw two 2nd-half touchdown passes and Alex Henery hit four field goals.

Ganz was responsible for Clemson's first score as well when he was sacked and lost the ball late in the 2nd quarter. Clemson's DeAndre McDaniel returned the fumble 28 yards for a touchdown.

Nebraska responded by driving for a field goal with just over a minute left in the half, but the game, which had been uneventful so far, took and interesting turn. The Huskers intercepted Cullen Harper on Clemson's 27 yard line and looked like they had a chance to take the lead, but on the next play Ganz was intercepted by Crezdon Butler, who returned it almost 60 yards to the Nebraska 13 yard line. Two plays later, Harper hit Aaron Kelly for a touchdown to take a 14-3 lead into the locker room.

The quarterbacks traded touchdowns early in the 3rd quarter. Ganz's 17-yarder to Nate Swift made it 14-10; Harper's subsequent 41-yarder to Jacoby Ford put the Tigers back up by 14; then Ganz struck again, hitting Todd Peterson from 19 yards out to pull within four again, 21-17.

The string of touchdown passes was broken when the Cornhuskers intercepted Harper again and took over on Clemson's 10 yard line, but the Tiger defense pushed them back a yard and they had to settle for a field goal and a 1-point deficit.

The action didn't stop there: Nebraska blocked a punt on Clemson's next series, but they again had to kick a field goal. This one put them up 23-21, however, their first lead of the game with two minutes left in the third quarter.

The teams traded punts until the middle of the fourth quarter. A 40-yard dash by Castille set up another Henery field goal, as once again Nebraska couldn't get the touchdown in the red zone.

The Tigers almost had a defensive play to win the game. Ganz was temporarily out after a big hit, and backup Patrick Witt ran the ball and had an apparent fumble which Clemson ran back for a touchdown. But the play was reviewed and Witt was ruled down.

Clemson had one final chance. Harper drove them to the Nebraska 10 yard line, but a huge sack by Eric Hagg put them back to the 26, and Harper's final passes were broken up and fell incomplete. Harper had 204 passing yards and two TDs, getting no help from the running game which finished with five yards including losses from Nebraska's five sacks of Harper.

Nebraska finishes a comeback year at 9-4, while Clemson's disappointing season ends at 7-6. The final score—26-21—was exactly as I'd called it, the only bowl game I've gotten on the nose this year. The win was emotional for Bo Pelini and his brother, Carl, the defensive line coordinator, who lost their father just days ago.

2009 Rose Bowl results - final score: USC 38, Penn State 24

Mark Sanchez and the USC offense brought their "A" game on New Year's Day, racking up a 31-7 halftime lead and coasting to a 38-24 win over Penn State. Sanchez picked apart the Nittany Lion secondary in a 24 point second quarter and finished 28 of 35 with over 400 yards and four touchdowns, adding another on the ground.

USC struck first blood, Sanchez hitting Damian Williams for a 27-yard score in the first quarter. Williams led USC with 162 receiving yards.

Penn State tied it at 7 all when quarterback Daryll Clark rambled in from 9 yards out. But that was the Penn State offense's last gasp in the first half.

The Trojans switched almost exclusively to the pass and had immediate success, driving downfield to set up Sanchez's own touchdown run from the six. Their next drive was stopped for just a field goal, but on the next series Sanchez hit Ronald Johnson from the 19 to put USC up 24-7.

Penn State almost reversed the momentum before halftime. With starting back Evan Royster hurt early, Stephfon Green took over. Clark dumped a short pass to Green and he weaved for 38 yards but fumbled the ball. USC took advantage and five plays later the score was 31-7, another Sanchez pass, this time to C.J. Gable. The mood at the half was dire for the Lions, who with penalties and mistakes had blown their chance to keep it close.

The third quarter went scoreless as Penn State's defense hardened while USC's didn't let up. The Lions failed to convert on a fourth down in USC territory, but drove for a touchdown on the next series, making it 31-14 early in the fourth quarter.

USC responded with another touchdown drive: Sanchez completions of 16, 26, and finally 45 yards to a ridiculously wide open Ronald Johnson.

Despite the odds the Lions didn't give up. Stopped inside the 10, they settled for a field goal, then drove for another touchdown, a nine-yard strike from Clark to Jordan Norwood, to close the lead to 38-24 with 4 1/2 minutes left.

The last few minutes were eventful. With the game seemingly long over, the Lions forced a USC punt with three minutes to go, but Clark was intercepted on the 1st down play. Again, USC had to punt, and the snap went far over punter Greg Woidneck's head, all the way back to the USC 14 where Penn State took over with 45 seconds left.

But Clark was intercepted again and the threat of a bizarre comeback was over. Clark finished 21 of 35 for 269 yards, with 2 touchdowns through the air and one on the ground.

USC ends the season 12-1, which is actually their best record since the 2005 season. They could finish as high as 2nd in the AP poll, though various arguments will put them anywhere from #1 to #5 depending on what else happens in the later bowls. The Nittany Lions fall to 11-2, also their best year since 2005 but by a wider margin. They should stay in the top ten, remaining ahead of Ohio State, the other Big Ten team that was crushed by the Trojans.

2009 Capital One Bowl results - final score: Georgia 24, Michigan State 12

Georgia found their offense through the air in the second half and held on to beat Michigan State 24-12 in the Capital One Bowl on New Year's Day. Matt Stafford threw for three touchdown passes as both teams' star running backs were held to short yardage the entire game.

The first half was a defensive battle, with both Javon Ringer and Knowshon Moreno rushed for less than 50 yards. The teams traded short field goals in the first quarter, then Brett Swenson's 32-yarder put the Spartans up 6-3 at the break.

Matt Stafford struck in the third quarter, first on a 35 yard score to Michael Moore, then to Aron White for 21 yards, and Georgia was in control 17-6. Stafford finished 20 of 31 for just under 250 yards.

Ringer finally found the end zone in the 4th quarter on a 1-yard run. The two point conversion attempt failed, leaving Michigan State behind by 5, 17-12. Ringer managed just 47 yards for the day on 20 carries, similar to his performance against other tough rushing defenses the Spartans have faced.

Stafford responded with his third TD pass of the day, this time to Moreno, who had just 68 rushing yards himself but caught six passes.

Quarterback Brian Hoyer tried to rally the Spartans late. Starting at mid-field after the kickoff they drove into Georgia territory but came up just short yet again on a 4th and 22. The teams traded short drives again and the Bulldogs intercepted Hoyer's final pass of the day. He finished 18-of-34 for 169 yards and was sacked four times.

The win puts Georgia at 10-3, a good season but not quite the one they'd hoped for. They'll finish firmly in the top 25 after starting the year #1 in the AP poll. Michigan State had a good year, too, finishing 9-4 with losses only to Cal, Ohio State, Penn State, and now Georgia.

2009 Outback Bowl results - final score: Iowa crushes South Carolina, 31-10

The Iowa Hawkeyes capped a season of consistent improvement by dominating the South Carolina Gamecocks from the beginning, coasting to a 31-10 victory in the Outback Bowl in Tampa. Shonn Greene had 121 yards—his 13th game in a row over 100 yards—and three touchdowns for the Hawks.

Iowa took the opening drive for a score, with quarterback Rick Stanzi hitting Trey Stross in the end zone to go up 7-0. The next two scores were 1-yard runs by Greene as the Hawkeyes went up 21-0 at the half.

The Gamecocks struggled all game, with Stephen Garcia throwing three interceptions and fumbling once in the first half. Chris Smelley started the second half and completed his first pass, but his receiver fumbled the ball and Iowa recovered, leading to Daniel Murray field goal to give the Hawks 24 after a goal-line stand by South Carolina.

Other than the goal-line stop, nothing much went right for Steve Spurrier and the Gamecocks. They apparently got on the board with a 46 yard field goal but a penalty necessitated a re-kick, and Ryan Succop missed from 51 yards. Greene scored his third touchdown from 11 yards out on the subsequent drive, making it 31-0.

All of South Carolina's offensive highlights were in the fourth quarter. Smelley led the Gamecocks for a score on a 10-yard pass early in the quarter. A Succop field goal made it 31-10 with two minutes left. South Carolina recovered the ensuing onside kick but that was their last gasp.

The Hawkeyes finish the season a strong 9-4 after a 3-3 start, a great comeback for coach Kirk Ferentz. They lost four games by a combined 12 points, and were the only team to beat Penn State in 2008. South Carolina ends the year 7-6, another disappointing season for Spurrier.

2009 Cotton Bowl preview, odds, & prediction: Texas Tech vs. Mississippi

Friday January 2nd: Cotton Bowl in Dallas, TX 2:00 pm eastern

#3 Texas Tech Red Raiders (11-1) vs. #24 Mississippi Rebels (8-4)

The only team to beat Florida is playing a team whose only loss is to Oklahoma.

Vegas line: Texas Tech by 4.

The Red Raiders are a surprisingly narrow favorite. Hedging for possible Tech letdown?

Strength Power Rating:  Texas Tech 37    Mississippi 28

Mississippi has a good defense—they rank 19th in the nation in adjusted points yielded—but so does Texas Tech, who ranks #23. The Oklahoma game notwithstanding, they held a lot of good teams—Kansas and Oklahoma State, for example—well below their average this season.

While Mississippi's offense is good, too, ranking #18, Texas Tech has one of the most explosive offenses in the country, ranking #6. This is what gives them the edge according to the power rating. Note that while the game is being played in Texas, it's almost as far from Lubbock as it is from Oxford. At most maybe Tech gets a point, but the numbers I'm using are assuming a neutral field.

Yardage analysis:   Texas Tech 41    Mississippi 28

The Red Raider offense is 4th in adjusted average yards per game, their defense 26th. The Rebels rank 19th on offense, 18th on defense. These rankings are very similar to their scoring rankings, so with these teams, what you see is what you get on offense and defense. Thus the estimate comes out about the same.

When Mississippi has the ball
Mississippi rushing offense: #25           Texas Tech rushing defense: #49
Mississippi passing offense: #45           Texas Tech passing defense: #18

Ole Miss has a solid ground game and an okay passing game. They don't have superstar backs but they've faced a lot of stingy rushing defenses in the SEC, and they set up in some unusual formations that can confuse a defense not used to seeing them. Though inconsistent, Javon Snead has had some success throwing the ball this year with a nearly 2:1 TD:int ratio, but Texas Tech is pretty good on pass defense. If Ole Miss can establish the run, Snead should have more luck through the air; running the ball is also critical to moving the clock and keeping Harrell and company off the field as much as possible.

When Texas Tech has the ball
Texas Tech rushing offense: #93             Mississippi rushing defense: #3
Texas Tech passing offense: #2               Mississippi passing defense: #101

Texas Tech tried to create more balance between the rushing and passing game this year, and they certainly improved from last year when they were almost dead last in the nation in rushing. But they're still a pass-dominated offense of course. As of December 28 they were neck-and-neck with Houston for #1 in passing, and after the Houston's bowl Tech is almost certainly #1 again. Either way, they put up a lot of yards; Graham Harrell has 41 touchdown passes for the year and over 4,700 yards. Michael Crabtree is on his way to being one of the all-time great wide receivers in college football history. This presents a problem for Mississippi's porous pass defense.

While Ole Miss ranks 60th—about average—in raw yardage yielded against the pass, that's because their schedule features many teams that don't pass the ball much. When adjusted for this fact, they're 101st in the nation, suggesting that Harrell and crew could have a field day. But pass defense yardage is the least straightforward measure of the four listed above. Teams can give up a lot of yardage through the air in an open field but clamp down inside the 20 where the field is tighter. Many teams take chances to intercept the ball, meaning they give up yards but come up with big plays. And sometimes teams good at pressuring the quarterback can be a lot more effective than their yardage numbers would indicate. How is Mississippi by these other measures?

They rank an average 66th in red zone defense. No good news there. They're 43rd in interceptions...not bad, but Harrell doesn't throw many. They do rank 5th in total sacks, meaning they can probably get good pressure on Harrell. It's not guaranteed to slow him down; after all, Texas is #1 in sacks, and they gave up 39 points to the Red Raiders. But it's a start, and gives them hope. In Phil Steele's pass efficiency defense numbers, Ole Miss ranks 61st. Not great, but better than 101st. So every possibility is in play: Harrell could shred them, or they might cobble together a plan—starting with heavy pressure—to successfully slow him down.

Game-comparison win %
Texas Tech        66%
Mississippi         34%  

Texas Tech is about a 2-to-1 favorite by the game-comparison system.

Mississippi's key games

Wins over bowl teams (3)

• Memphis 41-24 (1st game of season)
• @ #5 Florida 31-30 (5th)
  
• @ LSU 31-13 (11th)

Losses (4):

• @ Wake Forest 30-28
• Vanderbilt 23-17
• South Carolina 31-24
• @ #6 Alabama 24-20

Mississippi had mixed results their first four games, and overall didn't look that impressive. So it was quite a shock when they beat Florida on the road. When they reversed course and lost two more games to sit at 3-4, it made Florida look bad. How could such a poor team have defeated the Gators?

A few wins later they at least had a winning record, but the Florida game stood out like a sore thumb among all their efforts. However, they managed to recaptur their best form, beating their last three opponents 135-13, including last year's champ LSU and arch-rival Mississippi State. In fact, according to the Strength power rating, over their last three games they played as well as Florida or Oklahoma.

Texas Tech's key games

Wins over bowl teams (5):

• @ Nevada 35-19 (2nd game of season)
• Nebraska 37-31 (ot) (6th)
• @ Kansas 63-21 (8th)
• #1 Texas 39-33 (9th)
• #12 Oklahoma State 56-20 (10th)
  

Losses (1):

• @ #2 Oklahoma 65=21

Texas Tech was expected to be good this season, but it was a long time before one could tell exactly how good they were.

The early schedule was littered with I-AA teams and questionable I-A squads. In retrospect, they did well against these teams, but really didn't raise eyebrows until they beat Kansas State 58-28 in Manhattan (game 5). Those eyebrows lowered back down when they needed overtime at home to beat Nebraska and played poorly against struggling Texas A&M.

But then the Kansas game established that they were for real. 8-0 at this point, they thrashed the Jayhawks by six touchdowns on the road. The followup was the kicker: they beat top-ranked Texas on the play of the year, a last-second Harrell to Crabtree touchdown. Not resting on their laurels, they smoked Oklahoma State the next weekend 56-20, setting up the huge showdown with Oklahoma.

In that game, all the credibility they had gained over the last month was gone in a flash to some people. Oklahoma dominated on offense and defense; most figured it would at least be a shootout with the Sooners' questionable defense. But Oklahoma beat Tech the way the Raiders had beaten Kansas and Oklahoma State. Their national title dream was gone.

Limping into the Baylor game, the letdown was noticeable. Needing to rally to win, they played nothing like the team that had previously dominated some of the better teams in the nation. With a month off, will this letdown pass? Or will being dropped from national title dreams to playing the 4th best SEC team keep them in a funk?

Psychology

Clearly these are two teams at different mental states right now. Whether or not Texas Tech has fully recovered from their disappointment, they will still have trouble convincing themselves that this game matters as much as some of their earlier games. And likely they'll feel some overconfidence at playing an 8-4 team when they beat Texas, and only lost to Oklahoma. How can they lose to Mississippi?

Ole Miss is on a roll, winning their last three games in powerhouse style. Under new coach Houston Nutt they're playing in a January bowl after missing a bowl altogether for the last four seasons. That means no one on the team has been to a bowl game, and excitement is high among the team and fans.

These factors—Mississippi's late surge vs. Texas Tech's collapse, and the emotional state of each team—seem to have been taken into account by the sports books in setting their odds. I had expected Tech to be a 10 to 12 point favorite, and was surprised to see it called so tight. I would guess that a lot of people are picking Mississippi to win this game based solely on psychological factors and momentum, and it's not a bad reason at all.

Final analysis

Before the line was announced, I had pegged this bowl as a "disappointment special" where a heavily-favored team that falls into a lesser bowl plays a disappointing game and loses by the spread. The same thing happened to Missouri, a 12 point favorite who needed overtime to beat Northwestern.

Texas Tech's last two games showed a marked dropoff from the level they had been playing. The last game, against Baylor, is the important one, showing how they coped with the loss. It wasn't good. Is there any reason for that to change? The loss to Oklahoma hasn't gone away.

But Texas Tech may get their motivation from an unusual source—the point spread itself. They probably think they deserve to be 10 point favorites. Missouri fit the pattern of the "letdown" game when they were heavy favorites, and there was clearly some overconfidence against Northwestern. Tech might actually have something to prove in this game, and as long as they have Michael Crabtree it's hard for me to bet against them.

With that, I'll stick to my plan: Tech wins, but doesn't cover.

Prediction: Texas Tech 31   Mississippi 30

Liberty Bowl preview, odds, & prediction: East Carolina vs. Kentucky

Friday January 2nd: Liberty Bowl in Memphis, TN 5:00 pm eastern

#25 East Carolina Pirates (9-4) vs. Kentucky Wildcats (6-6)

Another January bowl that probably shouldn't be in January.

Vegas line: East Carolina by 3.

The C-USA Pirates are a field goal favorite over the SEC's Wildcats.

Strength Power Rating:  East Carolina 20    Kentucky 19

East Carolina is a slimmer favorite according to the Strength ratings. Both teams have weak scoring offenses, ranking 85th and 77th. East Carolina's defense is a bit tougher, ranking 39th to Kentucky's 54th.

Yardage analysis:   East Carolina 17    Kentucky 14

Both offenses look even weaker by the yardage numbers: East Carolina is only 91st, Kentucky just 94th. The defenses rank 29th and 59th. Remember that the offensive scoring data includes scores by the defense, and turnovers caused by the defense can set up short fields that required fewer yards to get points. East Carolina has intercepted 21 passes this year, and Kentucky has forced 13 fumbles. Thus a team with a stronger defense will make offensive scoring data look better, while not contributing to offensive yardage data.

When Kentucky has the ball
Kentucky rushing offense: #74           East Carolina rushing defense: #44
Kentucky passing offense: #88           East Carolina passing defense: #26

Unlike last season under Andre Woodson, Kentucky's offense was not very productive in '08. East Carolina's defense has been pretty solid in both categories. This matchup presents a challenge for the Wildcats, who have struggled to find consistency at quarterback and running back. To add to the challenge, starter Randall Cobb is unlikely to play in the bowl game, though Mike Hartline started most of the season before Cobb took over.

When East Carolina has the ball
East Carolina rushing offense: #94             Kentucky rushing defense: #65
East Carolina passing offense: #68             Kentucky passing defense: #46

East Carolina hasn't had an explosive offense, either, but quarterback Patrick Pinkney can have a great game when he gets rolling. He's completed 63% of his attempts and while no Pat White, can be a threat to run as well. But the Pirates, too, will face a challenge against the Wildcat defense, which is why most of the projections for this game are for a low-scoring affair, with the over/under at 41 points.

Game-comparison win %
East Carolina         47%
Kentucky               53%  

Interestingly, the game-comparison system—culled from the same data as the Strenth power rating—says that Kentucky is more likely to win, just barely. The discrepancy can be seen as the difference between mean and mode. When all the game-comparisons are averaged, East Carolina wins the typical game by a point, but there are more Kentucky wins (by small margins) than East Carolina wins (by larger margins).

Kentucky's key games

Wins over bowl teams (0)

• N/A

Losses (6):

• @ #6 Alabama 17-14
• South Carolina 24-17
• @ #5 Florida 63-5
• #17 Georgia 42-38
• Vanderbilt 31-24
• @ Tennessee 28-10

Here's a telling stat: Kentucky did not beat a single team with a winning record this season. Not even I-AA Norfolk State managed to finish .500. And some of their wins were still close, beating Middle Tennessee State by 6, and Arkansas and Mississippi State by a point.

The did play very well in the opener at Louisville, pitching a shutout of the Cardinal offense. But their best performance might have been at Alabama, where they lost by 3 points. But looking at their season overall doesn't present a very good trend; their last seven games don't include a single really solid performance, and they dropped their last three games.

East Carolina's key games

Wins over bowl teams (4):

• Virginia Tech 27-22 (1st game of season)
• West Virginia 24-3 (2nd game)
• Memphis 30-10 (7th)
• @ Tulsa 27-24 (13th)

Losses (4):

• @ N.C. State 30-24 (ot)
• Houston 41-24
• @ Virginia 35-20
• @ Southern Miss 21-3
  

East Carolina opened the year with a great win over Virginia Tech and a huge upset of West Virginia, beating the Mountaineers throughly. After that expectations rose and the team couldn't quite handle it. They dodged a bullet against Tulane but dropped their next three.

To their credit, the Pirates came back, winning close games against UCF and Marshall. After losing to Southern Miss they finished strong, winning their last three, and in their final two games they looked as good as they had in the first two games, beating UTEP 53-21 and edging Tulsa in the C-USA championship game.

Psychology

Kentucky hasn't played well in the entire second half of the season, losing their last three. East Carolina has had an emotionally up and down year, but finished 9-4 for their best season in a decade. A tenth win would be their first since 1991. The Pirates should have a sizeable psychological advantage going into the game.

Final analysis

Both teams are likely to have trouble moving the ball consistently against tough defenses. But Kentucky has quarterback issues in addition to their other problems, while Pinkney is capable of having great performances leading his team. And East Carolina's defense is even more predatory than Kentucky's, with 32 forced turnovers to 25.

Add in a more fired-up Pirate team and this looks like an East Carolina win.

Prediction: East Carolina 23   Kentucky 14

2008 Chik-Fil-A Bowl results - final score: LSU 38, Georgia Tech 3

Charles Scott rushed for three touchdowns, two in a huge second quarter as the Tigers crushed Georgia Tech 38-3 in the Chik-Fil-A Bowl.

Scott's first TD came on LSU's first drive from 2 yards out. Georgia Tech countered with their only successful drive, resulting in Scott Blair's 24-yard field goal that made it 7-3 LSU at the end of the first quarter.

After that, it was all Tigers.

Scott scored again from close in, putting LSU up 14-3. On the ensuing kickoff the Tigers recovered an onside, leading to yet another Scott touchdown.

While LSU's trick plays worked, Georgia Tech's did not. On 4th and 8 from their own 22 the Yellow Jackets attempted a fake punt but were bottled up, giving LSU the ball on the 24 yard line. The short allowed LSU's quarterback—freshman Jordan Jefferson in his first ever start—to complete two pass plays, the latter a 25 yard touchdown. Jefferson completed 16 of 25 passes for 142 yards on the day.

Keiland Williams capped the first half scoring with a 17-yard run and the rout was on, LSU going into the locker room with a 35-3 lead.

The second half featured little scoring. On one drive LSU was stopped on a 4th-and-goal from the one yard line, but later in the 3rd quarter Colt David hit a 53-yard field goal.

In the futile fourth quarter, the Yellow Jackets reached the LSU 13 but failed on fourth down; drove to the LSU 10 but quarterback Josh Nesbitt fumbled; and poked into Tiger territory in the final minute before time ran out.

LSU finished on a high note after a disappointing season, going 8-5 a year after winning the national championship. They also discovered a new talent at quarterback, a position that has given them trouble this year. Georgia Tech had a very successful 9-4 year, especially considering it was their first season under new coach Paul Johnson running the triple option.

2008 Insight Bowl results - final score: Kansas 42, Minnesota 21

Todd Reesing passed for four touchdowns as the Kansas pulled away from Minnesota and won the Insight Bowl 42-21. Reesing finished 27 of 35 for 313 yards, and Dezmon Briscoe had 201 receiving yards and three touchdown catches.

The first quarter was full of action and changing leads. Reesing's first connection with Briscoe came on the initial play from scrimmage, a 60 yard touchdown to give the Jayhawks a 7-0 lead.

The Gophers struck back right away: receiver/quarterback David Pittman completed his first pass of the year for a 75 yard gain; three plays later Jon Hoese scored from the one yard line to tie the game. Minnesota's next drive, with Adam Weber at the helm, was successful as well. Hoese got his second short TD run and Minnesota had a 14-7 lead.

But Reesing marched his team downfield, hitting Kerry Meier on a 4-yard pass to tie the game 14-14 at the end of the first quarter. Meier finished with 113 receving yards.

Kansas' next two drives were much the same, with similar results: Reesing hit Briscoe and Jonathan Wilson for short touchdown passes and Kansas was up 28-14 at the half.

The third quarter featured little scoring. The Jayhawks forced a Gopher fumble on their own 32 yard line, and one play later Meier, Kansas' own quarterback turned wide receiver, tossed a touchdown pass to Briscoe on the next play.

Attempting to come back from a 35-14 deficit in the final quarter, Weber started the Gophers off right, cutting the lead to two touchdowns within a couple of minutes with a touchdown throw to Eric Decker. The defense responded by holding Kansas to a rare three-and-out.

But the Jayhawk defense stopped the Gophers' next drive, and put the game away with a time-killer drive that ended with Jake Sharp's 2-yard TD run.

Kansas finishes the season 8-5 compared to 12-1 last season. They lost to most of the Big 12's best teams (Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech) but finished strong by beating Missouri and Minnesota. The Gophers end on a down note, losing their last five games after starting 7-1, but that's quite a turnaround from their 1-11 mark last season.