Florida Gators #1 in final power rating; Utah tops Success ratings

Florida finished the year #1 in my Overall/Combined power rating. The Gators topped the Strength portion and were a close #2 in Success after undefeated Utah.

The final top ten for the 2008 season, Overall/Combined power rating:

  #  Team                         rec    Overall     Strength     Success
  1. Florida                     13-1    58.46 [ 1]  38.05 [ 1]  20.40 [ 2]
  2. Oklahoma                    12-2    47.28 [ 2]  36.15 [ 2]  11.13 [ 5]
  3. Southern Cal                12-1    45.48 [ 3]  33.93 [ 3]  11.54 [ 4]
  4. Texas                       12-1    44.86 [ 4]  31.02 [ 4]  13.84 [ 3]
  5. Utah                        13-0    39.93 [ 5]  19.04 [10]  20.89 [ 1]
  6. Penn State                  11-2    33.03 [ 6]  27.49 [ 5]   5.54 [11]
  7. Texas Tech                  11-2    30.40 [ 7]  21.69 [ 6]   8.70 [ 7]
  8. Alabama                     12-2    27.68 [ 8]  18.97 [11]   8.70 [ 6]
  9. TCU                         11-2    27.22 [ 9]  21.47 [ 7]   5.74 [10]
 10. Mississippi                  9-4    25.67 [10]  18.25 [13]   7.42 [ 8]

Oklahoma still finishes #2 despite their loss, with USC edging Texas for #3. The Longhorns' Success rating was hurt by Oklahoma's loss, as their win over the Sooners was giving them a lot of points.

Undefeated Utah comes in at 5th, their lower Strength rating sabotaging their top-ranked Success spot. Penn State, Texas Tech, Alabama, and TCU, all 2-loss teams, follow. Mississippi sneaks in at #10 after upsetting the Red Raiders.

The Strength subcomponent, which uses margin of victory, is a measure of how good teams are independent of their record. Florida and Oklahoma topped the list before their game last night and still do the next morning:

  #  Team                         rec    Overall     Strength     Success
  1. Florida                     13-1    58.46 [ 1]  38.05 [ 1]  20.40 [ 2]
  2. Oklahoma                    12-2    47.28 [ 2]  36.15 [ 2]  11.13 [ 5]
  3. Southern Cal                12-1    45.48 [ 3]  33.93 [ 3]  11.54 [ 4]
  4. Texas                       12-1    44.86 [ 4]  31.02 [ 4]  13.84 [ 3]
  5. Penn State                  11-2    33.03 [ 6]  27.49 [ 5]   5.54 [11]
  6. Texas Tech                  11-2    30.40 [ 7]  21.69 [ 6]   8.70 [ 7]
  7. TCU                         11-2    27.22 [ 9]  21.47 [ 7]   5.74 [10]
  8. Missouri                    10-4    22.42 [13]  20.08 [ 8]   2.33 [31]
  9. Ohio State                  10-3    22.47 [12]  19.41 [ 9]   3.05 [21]
 10. Utah                        13-0    39.93 [ 5]  19.04 [10]  20.89 [ 1]

Note that Utah is barely in the top ten. They often didn't win convincingly, but they always won. For comparison's sake, the undefeated Utah team from 2004 finished 4th in both Strength and Success, and #4 overall. That team had an easier schedule but won by a wider margin. You could say the 2004 team was better than the 2008 team but didn't have the necessary challenges on its schedule to rank higher. The 2004 team would rank #6 in Strength this year, and 6th overall.

Missouri and Ohio State rate quite a bit higher in Strength than Success, reflecting their lack of wins over tougher competition, but their ability to beat lesser foes convincingly, and/or stay close to tougher teams for the most part (the OSU-USC game and Missouri-Oklahoma notwithstanding).

In the Success component, undefeated Utah narrowly places ahead of 1-loss Florida:

  #  Team                         rec    Overall     Strength     Success
  1. Utah                        13-0    39.93 [ 5]  19.04 [10]  20.89 [ 1]
  2. Florida                     13-1    58.46 [ 1]  38.05 [ 1]  20.40 [ 2]
  3. Texas                       12-1    44.86 [ 4]  31.02 [ 4]  13.84 [ 3]
  4. Southern Cal                12-1    45.48 [ 3]  33.93 [ 3]  11.54 [ 4]
  5. Oklahoma                    12-2    47.28 [ 2]  36.15 [ 2]  11.13 [ 5]
  6. Alabama                     12-2    27.68 [ 8]  18.97 [11]   8.70 [ 6]
  7. Texas Tech                  11-2    30.40 [ 7]  21.69 [ 6]   8.70 [ 7]
  8. Mississippi                  9-4    25.67 [10]  18.25 [13]   7.42 [ 8]
  9. Boise St                    12-1    24.13 [11]  18.13 [14]   5.99 [ 9]
 10. TCU                         11-2    27.22 [ 9]  21.47 [ 7]   5.74 [10]

In this measure, which uses no score information other than to determine the winner of a game, Utah has enough big wins—#6 Alabama, #10 TCU, and #13 Oregon State—an no losses, which puts them just a touch above Florida. The Gators beat #5 Oklahoma, #6 Alabama, and #14 Georgia, and most of their other wins are over winning teams. When offset by their loss to #8 Mississippi, it almost gives them enough to place #1 despite the loss, but not quite.

The rest of the usual suspects follow, with notable inclusions of Mississippi—who has four losses but beat #2 Florida and #7 Texas Tech—Boise State (one loss to #10 TCU) and TCU, who beat #9 Boise State and only lost to #1 Utah and #5 Oklahoma.

#6 Alabama lost only to the top two teams, #2 Florida and #1 Utah, in their final two games.