Big 12 is the Best Conference in 2008

Despite their lackluster bowl performance, the Big Twelve comes out the best conference from top to bottom in 2008 using a round-robin matchup rating approach.

No one agrees with on a perfect method for deciding which conference is best; some look at the top teams, some for a lack of bad teams; Jeff Sagarin uses "central mean" that overweights teams in the middle of the conference. The basic problems is that conferences have different numbers of teams, making direct comparisons between them difficult. Taking an "average" of the teams, or using the "median" team is unsatisfying.

I use a hypothetical "round-robin" system that pits every team from Conference A against every team from Conference B. The conference that "wins" the most wins that round. Then each conference has a "record" of 10 rounds, and the conferences are ranked by this "record."

This way the top teams in a conference contribute to its success, but no more than they deserve. Having bad teams hurts them, but it doesn't pull them down the way averaging does.

Some points to remember about these conclusions:

1. No actual inter-conference game results are used.

   It's all based on hypothetical outcomes from how the teams rank in my power ratings. All games that were played this year go into the pot for the power rating. The teams are ranked 1 to 120 and that forms the basis for results. There are not enough actual inter-conference results to form good conclusions about the relative strength of conferences; the Mountain West's 6-2 record against the Pac 10 doesn't mean the MWC is better than the PAC 10, it only reflects the performance of the teams involved, and the fact that upsets can occur.

2. The evaluation of the conferences is for the 2008 season only.

   The ACC's historical record against the Big Ten is irrelevant, and the fact that SEC teams have won the championship the last three years is irrelevant, too. So, too, is the number of NFL players from each conference, since no players from this season are in the NFL (yet).

3. All teams in a conference contribute to its results.

   Thus Florida's capturing the national championship this year does not give the SEC any additional advantage, other than having a team that will project to beat anyone else. It doesn't help Mississippi State do any better in their matchups.

Now the conference rankings, with their "record" against the other 10 conferences in parens, with their overall percentage in all comparisons following:

1. Big 12 (10-0) 72.2%
2. Pac 10 (9-1) 62.6%
3. ACC (8-2) 67.9%
4. SEC (7-3) 66.3%
5. Big East (6-4) 57.1%
6. Big Ten (5-5) 63.0%
7. Mtn. West (4-6) 48.2%
8. C-USA (3-7) 33.3%
9. MAC (2-8) 26.5%
10. WAC (1-9) 25.3%
11. Sun Belt (0-10) 18.6%

Before discussing the more suprising results, it should be noted that the conferences with the best record against other conferences are not necessarily the best in overall percentage. The percentages represent all the matchups against all other teams; some conferences beat other conferences very narrowly. The Pac 10 "beat" the SEC by two matchups and the Big Ten by one, despite having a lower overall percentage than both. By pure percentages, the Pac 10 would fall to fifth, the Big Ten would be fourth, and the Big East sixth. But we're comparison conference to conference, winner take all.

RESULTS

The Big 12 ends up #1. Last year's 2nd best conference, many of its teams improved dramatically: Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, and Baylor were all much better while Oklahoma made it to the championship this year and Missouri was still a top 25 team. The rest of the conference slipped, but not as much as the top teams gained.

Surprise: The Pac 10 finished second despite having the handicap of Washington and Washington State, who lost in nearly every other comparison they were involved in among the BCS conferences. The league recovered by having USC, Oregon, Oregon State, Cal, and Arizona rating decently, while even Stanford was not bad this year. The comparisons worked out well enough for them to just slip past a few other leagues that had better teams on average. Each game only counts for 1 point, so the Washington teams can only hurt them so much.

Another surprise: The ACC is the real league where each team had a challenge every week; there were no breathers in the conference this year. You could argue that the ACC had no top 25 teams, or you could make a case for about eight of its teams. The worst teams in the league were merely average I-A teams. As a result, when cross-comparing with other conferences, the whole league would lose to most conferences' top teams, but all 12 teams would beat the entire bottom half of the other BCS conferences. If you rank conferences by their best teams, the ACC would be sixth or seventh at best; by their worst teams, they'd be #1 for sure.

The SEC only finishes fourth, losing head-to-head against the Big 12, Pac 10, and ACC. From last year's best conference, the SEC has seen several of its teams drop in quality: LSU, Georgia, Tennessee, Auburn, Arkansas, and Mississippi State are all unarguably inferior to their 2007 teams, and by quite a bit. Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi were the only teams than significantly improved.

The Big East edged the Big Ten by one game in the head-to-head results, giving them fifth place.

No surprise that the Mountain West finished seventh. They made a lot of noise early for upsetting a number of Pac 10 teams, and for having Utah, TCU, and BYU among their ranks. But that's pretty much all they have: three good teams and a few other upsets. Beyond the top three and a decent Air Force team, the rest of the league looks like most non-BCS conferences: poor.

But not as poor as the four remaining conferences. The C-USA has some ok teams among its 12 members, the MAC less so among its 13, and the bulk of teams are not very good. The WAC has Boise State, Nevada (being kind) and no one else. The Sun Belt, of course, is still the low watermark for Division I-A conferences, with only Troy being respectable in quality. A few of their teams pulled upsets, too, but it's only an upset because your team wasn't ever expected to win, and most of the time, these teams don't.