2008 Las Vegas Bowl preview, odds, prediction: #16 BYU vs. Arizona
Saturday December 20th: Las Vegas Bowl in Las Vegas, NV 8:00 pm eastern
Brigham Young Cougars (10-2) vs. Arizona Wildcats (7-5)
BYU lost only to top Mountain West foes TCU and Utah, but they lost big. Arizona lost a couple of close games to teams they should have beaten. Can the Cougars give the Mountain West yet another win over a Pac-10 team?
Vegas line: Arizona by 3
Despite BYU's crushing of Pac-10 UCLA and Arizona's loss to MWC New Mexico, the oddsmakers give the Wildcats the edge.
Strength Power Rating: Arizona 36 Brigham Young 30
Yardage analysis: Arizona 31 Brigham Young 30
The spread evens a bit when yardage alone is looked at. That's because BYU's offense puts out more yardage than Arizona's (#17 vs. #30). They don't score as much (adjusted for opposition) since Arizona is very efficient with their yardage, scoring in the red zone at a high clip (7th in the nation). Defensively, Arizona is 19th best is yardage yielded, while BYU is 70th.
When Brigham Young has the ball
Brigham Young rushing offense: #72 Arizona rushing defense: #47
Brigham Young passing offense: #6 Arizona passing defense: #14
The Cougars offensive key is, of course, quarterback Max Hall, who was a solid Heisman candidate for much of the year. They can move the ball through the air against almost anyone, but could Arizona's solid passing defense shut him down? Looking beyond the yardage numbers, they have a decent number of interceptions and an average pass rush, so the answer is probably no, they can't shut him down, but they can likely slow him down.
When Arizona has the ball
Arizona rushing offense: #59 Brigham Young rushing defense: #61
Arizona passing offense: #26 Brigham Young passing defense: #85
Arizona's average rushing offense should see an average amount of yards against BYU's average rushing defense. The passing game under Willie Tuitama should have success against the Cougars' weaker passing defense.
Pairwise-comparison win %
Brigham Young 35%
Arizona 65%
Both teams have had their share of disappointing games, but on average Arizona's performances have been better. This system gives the Wildcats almost a 2/3 chance of winning.
Brigham Young's key games
Wins over bowl teams (2):
- @Colorado St. 45-42 (9th game of season)
- @Air Force 38-24 (11th)
Losses (2):
- @#11 TCU 32-7
- @#4 Utah 48-24
BYU's most celebrated win was their 59-0 crushing of UCLA in game 3, followed by another shutout (Wyoming, 44-0). But both those teams finished 4-8. And their 28-27 win over Washington would have been a complete embarrassment if they had ended up the Huskies sole victim this year. But overall the first half of the season was kinder to the Cougars than the second, where they suffered three poor games in a row (the loss to TCU, and near-losses to UNLV and Colorado State) before recovering to beat Air Force handily. They ended with another down note against Utah. Though they didn't lose to a less than top ten quality team, they had three very close calls against teams with losing records.
Arizona's key games
Wins over bowl teams (1):
- California 42-27 (7th game of season)
Losses (5):
- @New Mexico 36-28
- @Stanford 24-23
- USC 17-10
- @#18 Oregon 55-45
- #23 Oregon State 19-17
Arizona busted out of the gate with a 70-0 thrashing of Idaho, showing that their offense was now the equal of their defense. Already overconfident by week three, however, they lost to unheralded New Mexico. Dominant wins over UCLA and Washington suggested they'd learned their lesson, but they were upset at Stanford. The Cal game was probably their most impressive, if not the narrow loss to USC, but by season's end they were 7-5, a mixed bag to say the least. For the first time since 1998 they'd finished with a winning record, but it was far short of what many felt they were capable of.
Psychology
BYU, as it often does at this time of year, feels slighted to be ranked but facing a 7-5 opponent. This time, however, they can't claim their conference is being unfairly judged, since they finished only third. But they have a point; the Mountain West went 6-1 this season against the Pac-10, and the #3 MWC team is facing the 5th place Pac-10 squad.
Arizona's mental state might not be much better. Their expectations were high for this season, and weren't met. But their main goal—bowl eligibility—was, and playing a ranked, 10-2 opponent is probably about what they were shooting for pre-season. So they probably have the edge, albeit a slight one.
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Final analysis
TCU stopped BYU through sacks and interceptions, and while Arizona's passing defense is good, they won't have that kind of big-play effect on the Cougars. So Max Hall will get yards and points, and Arizona will have to match offense with offense.
And the Wildcats can do that. Willie Tuitama will probably match Hall point for point; the difference in the game could be Arizona's ability to run the ball adequately, giving them a slight edge in the passing game, too.
Against common opponents Washington, New Mexico, and UCLA, both teams beat the Bruins handily, Arizona fell to New Mexico, and BYU might have fallen to Washington if not for Jake Locker's celebration penalty. So it's a wash there. Both teams play much better at home, but neither is playing at home. So how to make the call in this one?
Arizona's early losses were due to overconfidence, and they won't overlook a ranked BYU team. With the Wildcats playing their "A" game (or at least B game), they'll be psyched to win their first bowl game in ages, while BYU has to be a bit bored of going to the Las Vegas bowl year after year. While both teams have had trouble with poor competition, demonstrating that either team could win this one, I think the Wildcats have the slight edge. Against the point spread, I'm not sure, so I'll go with the Vegas line.
Prediction: Arizona 33 BYU 30
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