2008 Chik-Fil-A Bowl preview, odds, and prediction: Georgia Tech vs. LSU

Wednesday December 31st: Chik-Fil-A Bowl in Atlanta, GA 7:30 pm eastern

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9-3) vs. Louisiana State Tigers (7-5)

A year ago LSU was playing for the national championship; now they invade Yellow Jacket territory to salvage some semblance of a successful season.

Vegas line: Georgia Tech by 4.

Georgia Tech beat Georgia, who clobbered LSU. Therefore, Tech is a slight favorite playing in their home city of Atlanta.

Strength Power Rating:  Georgia Tech 29    Louisiana State 23

Georgia Tech's triple option offense is 28th in scoring, its defense even better at #14. LSU is 31st on offense but only 75th on defense. How far they've fallen since last season's Glen Dorsey-led defense.

Yardage analysis:   Georgia Tech 28    Louisiana State 24

The yardage projection is a bit closer; run-based offenses generate fewer yards than balanced or pass-happy offenses. Tech is 29th on offense, 55th on defense; LSU is 42nd and 37th. The teams are neck-and-neck in yardage, with home field advantage giving Tech some breathing room.

When Louisiana State has the ball
Louisiana State rushing offense: #37           Georgia Tech rushing defense: #33
Louisiana State passing offense: #57           Georgia Tech passing defense: #83

The teams match up pretty well when LSU has the ball. The Tiger ground game with Charles Scott meet a strong Tech rush defense. LSU has a slight advantage in the passing game, but they've had trouble with QB Jarrett Lee and interceptions (with several returned for touchdowns). Georgia Tech is in the top ten in the nation in interceptions.

When Georgia Tech has the ball
Georgia Tech rushing offense: #1                   Louisiana State rushing defense: #21
Georgia Tech passing offense: #118               Louisiana State passing defense: #73

Everyone knows what Georgia Tech is going to do: run the ball. And what's scary is how short a time it took them to run it so well. LSU's rushing defense is good, but it will be put to the test in a big way. If they succeed, though, they pretty much take Tech's offense out of the game.

Game-comparison win %
Georgia Tech         67%
Louisiana State      33%  

Georgia Tech is a 2/3 favorite at home (or rather, close to home).

Georgia Tech's key games

Wins over bowl teams (5)

• @ Boston Coll. 24-17 (2nd game of season)
• @ Clemson 21-17 (7th)
• Florida State 31-28 (9th)
• Miami 41-23 (11th)
• @ #17 Georgia 45-42 (4th)
  

Losses (3):

• @ Virginia Tech 20-17
• Virginia 24-17
  
• @ North Carolina 28-7

Many have stated that Georgia Tech got better at running the triple option as the the season progressed. But if you look at their actual performances, the Yellow Jackets had only three real lapses all year: the late losses to Virginia and North Carolina, where the offense scored just 7 points in each game, and the pathetic 10-7 home win over Gardner-Webb, easily the worst game they played all season.

So for half the year, the offense was sputtering, racking up yards and points one game while faltering the next. They recovered for the final two games, overwhelming Miami and humiliating Georgia in their two best offensive performances. The defense allowed 23 or more points in all of their last six games after holding every team 20 or under for the first six, including ACC championship teams Virginia Tech and Boston College.

LSU's key games

Wins over bowl teams (2):

• @ South Carolina 24-17 (6th game of season)
• Troy 40-31 (10th)

Losses (5):

• @ #5 Florida 51-21
• #15 Georgia 52-38
• #6 Alabama 27-21 (ot)
• #24 Mississippi 31-13
• @ Arkansas 31-30

Last season LSU was 6-2 against bowl teams before the BCS title game. This year they're 2-4, with an extra loss against a non-bowl team.

Last year they dominated bowl teams Virginia Tech and Mississippi State by a combined 93-7; this year they edged South Carolina by a touchdown, and were down four TDs to Troy before rallying. Their most impressive win was very likely their opener against I-AA Appalachian State.

Last year both losses were in double overtime; this season they were beat by 30 by Florida, 15 by Georgia, and 18 by Mississippi. They lost three times at home.

On the bright side, they played Alabama close, almost giving them their first loss. Still their chart reflects a team that is just above average, and has been declining as reality set in that this was not going to be another big year for LSU football.

Psychology

Georgia Tech might feel like they deserve better than the "Chik-Fil-A" bowl, facing a LSU team that lost handily to the Georgia team that the Yellow Jackets beat. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are playing on January 1st.

But they're playing in their home town, and playing last season's national champion. After an off-season of major uncertainty with the arrival of a new coach and a radically different system, this year's success has been phenomenal.

The Tigers can't be happy about how the season turned out. As the big losses kept coming, LSU played worse against lesser competition, almost getting destroyed by Troy, then getting destroyed by Mississippi, then losing to Arkansas. A month off probably won't change their attitude—this season is a downer.

Final analysis

While the Tech rushing game vs. the Tiger defense is a good matchup, that's not the key to this game in my opinion. Neither is the Tiger rushing offense vs. the Tech rushing defense, though that's also a matchup of good units. The key is psychology: LSU is in decline and I don't see them snapping out of it. Meanwhile the Yellow Jackets still have something to prove, and they want to do it in Atlanta against the cream of the SEC crop for this decade.

I think the Tech defense will have a good outing. LSU has been plagued by interceptions and that's what this defense does well. So even if the Tigers move the ball through the air, they'll get caught by the interception bug at least once or twice. And while Charles Scott should grind out some yards, that matchup's a wash. The Tech running game will give LSU all it can handle, and produce enough to win the game.

The Troy game showed the two faces of LSU: how poorly they can play and how good they can be when they recover. Should they get rolling behind their defense they have a chance. So it all comes down to emotion. But if Georgia Tech plays as spirited as it did in beating Georgia, there's little hope. My guess is that Tech comes in high and LSU flat, leading to a surprisingly lopsided win for the Yellow Jackets.

Prediction: Georgia Tech 34   Louisiana State 17