2008 Champs Sports Bowl preview, odds, & prediction: Florida State vs. Wisconsin

Saturday December 27th: Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando, FL 4:30 pm eastern

Florida State Seminoles (8-4) vs Wisconsin Badgers (7-5)

Wisconsin goes to its annual Florida bowl, but this one is down a few rungs from what they've become accustomed to. Meanwhile Florida State is becoming accustomed to this level of bowl game as they attempt to rebound to their traditional quality level.

Vegas line: Florida State by 5 1/2

While FSU hasn't been consistently impressive this season, the Badgers have been consistently poor for the most part, making the Seminoles a near-touchdown favorite.

Strength Power Rating:  Florida State 33   Wisconsin 25

The Strength Power Rating makes FSU an 8-point favorite, though that's with home field advantage assigned. Without it the spread is five points. FSU deserves about a 2 point close-to-home bonus perhaps—they'll drive down rather than fly—making them an even touchdown favorite.

Florida State ranks 18th in adjusted scoring offense, 43rd in defense. Wisconsin is just 37th on offense and 57th on defense.

Yardage analysis:   Wisconsin  27    Florida State 23

Surprisingly, when yardage averages (adjusted for competition) are compared, Wisconsin is the winner. Florida State rates about the same by yards as by points: they are 54th on offense and 46th on defense. But Wisconsin is much better by this measure than scoring: they're 32nd in offense and 26th in defense.

Why do they rank so much better? Do they go on long scoring drives only to come up empty? How is their defense so stingy with yards but liberal with giving up points? 

One answer for the offense could be turnovers: the Badgers had 27, which puts them in the top 25 for most turnovers. A turnover effectively negates the benefit of gaining yardage. On the other side of the ball, the answer could be red zone defense: the Badgers rank a dismal 116th in preventing opponents from scoring inside the 20. So although they don't give up as many yards, opponents get more bang for the buck, i.e., more points per yard.

When Wisconsin has the ball
Wisconsin rushing offense: #12        Florida State rushing defense: #28
Wisconsin passing offense: #91        Florida State passing defense: #75

Wisconsin's ground game kept rolling even as P.J. Hill's output fell. Although Hill ended up with just over 1,000 yards, many expected him to vie for the Heisman trophy this year, but after a few big early games, he began to struggle. Redshirt frosh John Clay picked up the slack, and the two have been a tandem since. They'll hope for success against FSU's decent but not overwhelming rushing defense.

As for the passing game, it's suffered along with Allan Evridge, who was replaced mid-season by Dustin Scherer, who wasn't much more effective but has improved. Still, the Badgers main threat is the run, with a sturdy offensive line leading the way. They need to hold onto the ball, however.

When Florida State has the ball
Florida State rushing offense: #29       Wisconsin rushing defense: #18
Florida State passing offense: #82       Wisconsin passing defense: #53

As in the past several years, the Seminoles have struggled to find an offensive identity. From one game to the next, FSU finds a new offensive highlight that disappears in the next game. This year's spin is quarterback Christian Ponder, who can run the ball quite well. But the passing game still isn't there.

Wisconsin's defense is well-suited to slowing FSU down, either by air or on the ground. But what Florida State is good at—19th in the nation good—is scoring in the red zone. Much of this is due to kicker Graham Gano, one of the best in the country. Remember that Wisconsin's weakness is red zone defense, and they have their work cut out for themselves. They have to stop FSU and stop them early, before they get into Gano's range or into the red zone where the Badgers' D falls apart.

Pairwise-comparison win %
Wisconsin             33%
Florida State        67%  

With home field advantage, FSU is a 2-to-1 favorite. Without it, their percentage drops to 59%, but still they come out on top. Remember that the game-comparison system uses points, not yardage, to make its projections.

Wisconsin's key games

Wins over bowl teams (2)

• @ Fresno State 13-10 (3rd game of season)
• Minnesota 35-32 (11th game)

Losses (5):

• @ Michigan 27-25
• #10 Ohio State 20-17
• #8 Penn State 48-7
• @#25 Iowa 38-16
  
• @#19 Michigan State 25-24
  

Four of Wisconsin's five losses were to top 25 teams, and three of the five were close games. So they have little to be ashamed of by who they lost to, it's just that they didn't beat anyone of note. They escaped with three point wins at Fresno State and at home against Minnesota.

Vastly overrated at the beginning of the year—top ten in many polls—the Badgers season hit the skids with a four-game slump that was mostly due to facing tough teams that were better than they were, rather than a "meltdown" as it may have appeared at the time. When Scherer took over at quarterback, the schedule got easier, too, and the wins came back. But though they won three straight at the end to clinch a bowl game, the last two wins were very tight, and I-AA Cal Poly gave Wisconsin everything they could handle.

Florida State's key games

Wins over bowl teams (5):

• @ Miami 41-39 (5th game of season)
• @ N.C. State 26-17 (6th game)
• Virginia Tech 30-20 (7th)
• Clemson 41-27 (9th)
• @ Maryland 37-3 (11th)

Losses (4):

• Wake Forest 12-3
• @#15 Georgia Tech 31-28
• Boston College 27-17
• #5 Florida 45-15

Like they have for many seasons now, Florida State will look like "they're back" for a game, only to lose the next one big. After starting with big wins over I-AA foes, they dropped a home game to Wake Forest, scoring only 3 points. Four solid wins followed, but at 6-1 they were upset by Georgia Tech due to a goal-line fumble. A strong win at Clemson was followed by a home loss to Boston College. A great road crushing of Maryland, their best game of the year, was followed by another big loss to the Gators.

Through all of this, the Seminoles have played pretty decent football for the most part. Their only really bad games were the loss to Wake, in which several players were still suspended from last year's cheating scandal, and the home loss to Boston College, before which several new suspensions were announced. If FSU can remain suspension-free before the bowl game, it would help a lot.

Psychology

The Seminoles have a slight psychological edge, I believe. By now fans are used to the team not being a perennial top five squad, and 8-4 is better than the last two seasons' 7-6 marks. Without the suspensions in two losses, who knows what the 'Noles might have done? So going into next year, things are looking hopeful, and fans are reportedly enthused and buying tickets to the nearby bowl.

Wisconsin fans who have made the trip to Florida the last four straight years (Tampa, Orlando, Orlando, Tampa) might not be too excited about doing it again for the Champs Bowl, which is a few pegs down from the Capital One and Outback. The Badgers had higher hopes for this year. They shouldn't be too down about the game, but the extra hype that some teams have for their bowl might be absent in Wisconsin.

Final analysis

Wisconsin has to do two things to win this game, and if they do both, they can beat Florida State. One is to hold onto the ball. No fumbles, no interceptions. The drives they start can't end with FSU holding the ball in good field position. If they do this, their line and backs can move the ball against the Seminoles.

Two, the defense must stop FSU's drives as soon as possible. Keep them outside of the 35 yard line, and especially outside the 20. Don't let them near Gano's range, and certainly not in the red zone where FSU is great at scoring and Wisconsin is poor at defending. If they stop FSU sooner rather than later, their defense is well-equiped to limit the run and is decent enough at stopping the pass.

Do both, and they win fairly handily. If they do only the former, FSU will win a high-scoring game. Only the latter, and FSU will win a low-scoring game. Fail at both, and FSU will blow them out. The other X-factor is Florida State—which team will show up, the one that disappoints, or the one that gives hope? I think in this bowl game the "good" Seminoles will show up, meaning that Wisconsin will have to be perfect to win. The Badgers will probably have good luck limiting turnovers, as FSU is not another special on defense in that stat, but FSU's offense will inevitable move the ball into Gano's range or farther. With a close-to-home advantage and the psychological edge, the Seminoles will likely prevail.

Prediction: Florida State 31   Wisconsin 24