2008 Armed Forces Bowl preview, odds, & prediction: Air Force vs. Houston

Wednesday December 31st: Armed Forces Bowl in Ft. Worth, TX 12:00 noon eastern

Houston Cougars (7-5) vs Air Force Falcons (8-4)

Houston likes to pass, while Air Force goes to the ground game almost exclusively. This worked in Air Force's favor the last time these teams met—earlier this season—in wet, windy weather, leading to a 31-28 Air Force victory. Assuming the weather is normal next time, can Houston get revenge?

Vegas line: Houston by 3 1/2.

Despite the results of the last game, the Cougars are favored due to their high-power offense.

Strength Power Rating:  Houston 34   Air Force 30   (w/o HFA, 33-32)

Houston's offense ranks 16th in the country in scoring, adjusted for opposition. The reason they're only 7-5 is that their defense ranks 101st. Air Force's offense is 62nd, their defense 46th. The upshot, according to the Strength power rating, is a close game, with Houston up by four if you're liberal with home field advantage, and just 1 point if you're a stickler that home field actually be the team's home field. Houston is playing in-state, 4 hours from home, while Air Force is a 12 hour drive away. Giving the Cougars 2 points makes it a field goal advantage. Either way, it's pretty darn close to the Vegas point spread.

Yardage analysis:   Houston 49   Air Force 28  (w/o HFA 45-30)   

By yardage it's no contest. This analysis compare both teams' adjusted average yardage in rushing and passing with the other team's defensive averages, comes up with a total yardage projection, and converts that to a score. Houston is the #2 offense in the nation by yardage, behind just Oklahoma. Their defense is 97th. Air Force is 72nd on offense and 46th on D.

When Houston has the ball
Houston rushing offense: #68       Air Force rushing defense: #41
Houston passing offense: #2         Air Force passing defense: #61

Here's why Houston's score jumps in the yardage analysis: Air Force has a very average pass defense, while Houston is second only to Texas Tech in adjusted passing offense. Cougar QB Case Keenum has nearly 5,000 passing yards this year and 43 touchdowns. How can the Falcons stop him? They're not great at intercepting the ball, either, but they rank high in total sacks, so blitzes and pressuring Keenum might be their best hope, apart from a repeat of last September 13th's weather conditions.

When Air Force has the ball
Air Force rushing offense: #5         Houston rushing defense: #95
Air Force passing offense: #117     Houston passing defense: #95

Air Force can also try to match Houston point for point. They are a triple option team, running the ball nearly every down, and this is reflected in their stats: top ten in rushing, bottom ten in passing. Houston's defense is an equal-opportunity mess. They probably can't stop the Falcon's ground game any better than they could in September, when they were burned for 380 yards. Air Force may be able once again to hold the ball for long drives that end with scores, leaving Houston's quick-strike offense on the sidelines for much of the game.

Game-comparison win % (w/no HFA)
Air Force                     47%  (56%)
Houston                      53%  (44%)

This is pretty interesting. With home field advantage, Houston is a 53% favorite. Without, Air Force is a clear 56% favorite, despite the score projection which has Houston ahead. This is due to Air Force's consistency: they play at about the same level for almost every game. Houston's performances are all over the place. Their big games pull their average up, hence the slight advantage in projected score. But their poor games make them lose many of the head-to-head comparisons on which this indicator is based.

Essentially it's saying that we know which Air Force team is going to show up, but not which Houston team. Hence, Houston either loses a close one or wins big. When granted home field advantage, the odds tilt toward them enough to be the favorite.

Houston's key games

Wins over bowl teams (2)

• @ East Carolina 41-24 (5th game of season)
• Tulsa 70-30

Losses (5):

• @ Oklahoma State 56-37
• Air Force 31-28
• @ Colorado State 28-25
• @ Marshall 37-23
• @ Rice 56-42

Houston's fortunes are tied to its offense. When they score 42 or more points, they're 7-1, and 0-4 otherwise. Their best game was the 70-30 devastation of Tulsa, but they've had some poor losses and weak wins over SMU and UTEP when the defense almost let them down despite scoring 44 and 42.

The previous game with Air Force was their third game of the year, and in conditions that favored Air Force, yet they still almost came back from a 31-7 deficit to win. That game is a microcosm of their season: sometimes unstoppable, other times inept. Keenum still had 362 yards and 4 touchdowns in the loss.

Air Force' key games

Wins over bowl teams (2):

• @ Houston 31-28 (3rd game of season)
• Colorado State 38-17 (10th)

Losses (4):

• Utah 30-23
• Navy 33-27
• #16 BYU 38-24
• #11 TCU 44-10

Air Force only beat two bowl teams this season, but one of them was Houston, of course.

Air Force has played with remarkable consistency this season, despite changing their lineup throughout the season. Their first three wins and the subsequent loss to Utah, game 6 vs. San Diego State, game 8 vs. New Mexico, and the win over Colorado State all rank roughly equally. Just a step down were the loss to Navy, and games 7 and 9 where they beat UNLV by a point and Army 16-7. Only in the last two games, against ranked BYU and TCU, did they get manhandled and play poorly. Thus it's doubtful Air Force will blow out Houston, or get blown out themselves.

Psychology

The "rematch" advantage goes to Houston, perhaps, but Air Force wants to prove the first game wasn't a weather-related fluke. The Falcons have done better than expected this year, hardly slipping in performance despite losing a wealth of experience from last season's team. Much of the credit for this should go to coach Troy Calhoun, who guided the team well and shuffled the lineup as necessary when problems occurred, leading to very even-keel performance. I suspect that Air Force is playing near its potential almost every game, since a look at returning starters from last year would have led one to believe a much worse season was in store.

Revenge may be sweet, but Houston's real motivation is to win their first bowl game since 1980. During several years when the team was good—especially the Ware/Klingler years—Houston was ineligible for bowl competition, and soon after they fell into disrepair as a program, going 0-11 in 2001. They've made it to a bowl game the last few years and lost each time, so they're hungry.

Final analysis

Any analysis of these teams leads to essentially the blueprint for the team's September meeting: Keenum passing for huge yardage, but pressured by the defense; Air Force running the ball all over Houston's defense; and a relatively high score. Air Force's 31-28 win in the prior meeting took place in conditions that favored them, with rain and strong winds. Even then, Houston almost won the game, so how will Air Force fare if the weather is sunny and just breezy, as is the forecast for the 31st?

Well, they're still be able to run all over Houston; that shouldn't change. Nearly 400 yards of offense and 31 points should be no problem to replicate. And they'll still be able to rush the passer, and should get another three or so sacks on Keenum. But Houston may be able to run their offense more effectively for more of the game.

But in reality, Houston's performance varies game-to-game so much that the weather should only be considered a secondary factor in the prior contest. In the September game, Houston had three fourth-quarter drives: two went for touchdowns, one went for a goal-line interception. Had Houston scored there, they likely would have won 35-31, so that's what I'll pick for the fair-weather rematch to this mini-series.

Prediction: Houston 35   Air Force 31