Top Ten (ok, nine) BCS busters

Utah, Boise State, and Hawaii have done it in recent years—so who is the most likely team from a non-major conference to go undefeated and reach a BCS bowl? I look at the current top ten.

Here's how the list looked at the beginning of the season:

1. Utah - Top 25 quality team, easy schedule, plays BYU at home
2. BYU - Same as above, but play the Utes on the road
3. Boise State - Has a few non-conference roadblocks, Fresno State at home
4. Fresno State - Has a few non-conference roadblocks, Boise on the road
5. Ball State - Indiana is toughest team on schedule
6. Tulsa - Just has to get past Arkansas
7. UCF - Plays South Florida early; East Carolina at home
8. East Carolina - Tough early schedule includes West Virginia; later UCF on road
9. Texas Christian - Utah, BYU, and Oklahoma loom large
10. Troy - Plays LSU and Ohio State, or would be a favorite

Since then only two of those teams have lost: Fresno State to Wisconsin last weekend, and Central Florida in overtime to USF. More remarkably, the majority passed some tough tests: East Carolina beat Virginia Tech and West Virginia, Utah beat Michigan, and BYU beat the two Pac-10 teams on their slate. But almost all the potential candidates not on the list have lost, leaving only nine candidates total. Here's how the list looks now:

1. Utah: The win over Michigan was their first hurdle. The next big one isn't until BYU, but they can't let down against teams like TCU, who is also still in the hunt. But their toughest challenges are all at home from here on out. Pitfalls: Oregon State, TCU, BYU.
2. BYU: The Cougars almost blew it against Washington, but came back so strong against UCLA that they look like the best non-BCS team overall. The problem is the road game against Utah. Note that the Washington game was a road game, while UCLA was at home; this suggests BYU is a great home team but vulnerable on the road, giving the advantage to Utah. Pitfalls: @TCU, @Utah
3. East Carolina: Passed their toughest tests with flying colors, and even averted the letdown loss last weekend. Still have several tests, and while some are looking less daunting now, all are on the road. Pitfalls: @Virginia, @Southern Miss, @UCF, C-USA championship game.
4. Boise State: Next weekend will determine their fate. The Broncos play at Oregon, and if they win they have clear sailing until meeting Fresno State at home for the WAC title. Pitfalls: @Oregon, Fresno State.
5. Ball State: If they can beat Indiana on the road Saturday, the Cardinals have an excellent shot of going undefeated. Pitfalls: @Indiana, @Central Michigan, MAC championship game.
6. Tulsa: The good news is that their toughest game, against Arkansas, looks a lot easier as the Razorbacks are struggling even more than expected. The bad news is the emergence of East Carolina as a true power. The Pirates aren't on their schedule, but Tulsa would face them in the C-USA championship game. Pitfalls: @Arkansas, C-USA championship game
7. Texas Christian: Doing well so far, but still has three daunting tests. Pitfalls: @Oklahoma, BYU, @Utah.
8. Troy: Dodged one bullet so far when the LSU game was postponed. So they'll face Ohio State first. Pitfalls: @Ohio State, @LSU, @Oklahoma State, @Florida Atlantic
9. Air Force: Frankly I expected the Falcons to be 1-2 at this point, but they've gone 3-0, which I think is a nod to their coach. The road ahead is pretty tough, running through three of the other candidates ahead of them on the list. Pitfalls: Utah, @UNLV, New Mexico, BYU, @TCU.

Comments

[David]

Boise State doesnt deserve to be so high they will lose to Oregon AND Fresno State and probabbly more. hell Air Force has more chance of going undefeated than the SMURFS

[David]

TROY has more chance of beating LSU and Ohio State than the SMURFS have aganst Oregon and Fresno State!

[SportsRatings]

David, correct me if I'm wrong but I sense that you are not a big fan of the Broncos.

[tony]

Virginia shouldn't even be counted as a "pitfall" for East Carolina, or for anyother team for that matter.

[Logan]

Apparently, David hasn't watched Boise State football for the past decade. Fresno State consistently loses several conference games and always gets blown out on "The Blue". Oregon is completely beatable as they are down to their number 3 (and probably number 4 after the BSU game) quarterback. Granted, Autzen is a tough place to play and Boise has a very young team, but Oregon is vulnerable.

Also, isn't Troy supposed to be in the FCS? :)