SportsRatings Top 25 - week 12: some stability

With a relatively upset-free weekend the top 25 is pretty stable. Two teams in the top five lost, of course, but that's par for this season's course. They both remain in the top ten, so overall things are starting to "lock in," that is, wild swings in a team's ranking aren't occurring as much. The largest move this week is five spots.

Kansas stays number one. They beat the point spread again (with all the talk about the spread offense I'm careful now to qualify the word 'spread') and have a chance to be the first team to beat the spread every game over the season. That kind of dominance is how they are number one without beating any top 25 teams. The Jayhawks really lucked out schedule-wise in terms of the Big 12 South teams they face—no Texas, Tech, or Oklahoma—and their pre-conference schedule was a joke. But they'll earn their ranking over the next two weeks or fall from the national title picture.

LSU on the other hand has had a murderous schedule that's not nearly reflected by listing their top 25 wins. Plus they're one triple-overtime road loss away from perfection.

Ohio State and West Virginia are very close at 3rd and 4th, and it will get even closer if West Virginia wins out. For now the Buckeyes maintain the edge due to their overwhelming defense. This comparison suddenly became very important because if LSU loses or Oklahoma wins the Big 12, one of these two teams will play for the national title.

Missouri jumps idle Arizona State to #5, and this one's an easy comparison as ASU has no top 25 victories. Both teams have tough games next week, vs. Kansas and USC respectively.

Hawaii remained undefeated and stays ahead of all the 2-loss teams. If they go undefeated I'll keep moving them up accordingly as they will have to beat Boise State and then likely a major conference champ in a BCS bowl. I don't think it'll come to that as the Warriors have squeaked by several mediocre teams. They aren't comparable to a Utah circa 2004 or even a Boise State circa 2006.

Oregon and Oklahoma were of course the big losers of the week. Both were in line for the national title and lost their quarterbacks early in the game which led to their collapse. Who knew that Sam Bradford was as important to the Sooners' offense as Dennis Dixon was to the Ducks'? The two teams, along with #10 Boston College, are pretty interchangeable rankings-wise: all have two losses, one of them against a losing team, and (with B.C.'s win over Clemson) two wins against top-25 teams. Oklahoma's and Oregon's wins are a bit more impressive than B.C.'s, and the Ducks can additionally claim the Michigan blowout. The road ahead looks worse for Oregon without Dennis Dixon, but strictly looking back they're slightly in front. I make my rankings using the concept "if the season ended right now, who did the best?" rather than projecting who would win a matchup between two teams currently.

lw   #  Team             rec important games(losses; wins over top 25)
1    1. Kansas          11-0
2    2. LSU             10-1 L@KY43-37ot;wVT48-7,wFLA28-24
4    3. Ohio State      11-1 L Ill28-21;wWis38-17,wPSU37-17,w@Mich14-3
5    4. West Virginia    9-1 L@SoFLA21-13;w@Cincy28-23
8    5. Missouri        10-1 L@OK41-31;w@Ill40-34,wTTech41-10
7    6. Arizona State    9-1 L@Ore35-23
9    7. Hawaii          10-0
3    8. Oregon           8-2 L@Ariz34-24,L Cal31-24;w@Mich39-7,wUSC24-17,wASU35-23
6    9. Oklahoma         9-2 L@Col27-24,L@TTech34-27;wTex28-21,wMiz41-31
10  10. Boston College   9-2 L@Mary42-35,L FSU27-17;w@VT14-10,w@Clem20-17
11  11. Virginia Tech    9-2 L@LSU48-7,L BC14-10;w@Clem41-23
12  12. Georgia          9-2 L SC16-12,L@Tenn35-14;wFLA42-30
14  13. Virginia         9-2 L@Wyoming23-3,L@NCSt29-24;wConn17-16
15  14. Connecticut      9-2 L@Virg17-16,L@Cin27-3;wUSF22-15
16  15. Boise State     10-1 L@Wash24-10
13  16. Cincinnati       8-3 L@Pitt24-17,L Lou28-24,L WVA28-23;w@USF38-33,wConn27-3
17  17. South Florida    8-3 L@Rut30-27,L@Conn22-15,L Cin38-33;wWVA21-13
18  18. Florida          8-3 L Aub20-17,L@LSU28-24,L@GA42-30
21  19. Texas            9-2 L KSt41-21,L OK28-21;wTTech59-43
20  20. USC              8-2 L Stan24-23,L@Ore24-17
22  21. Illinois         9-3 L@IA10-6,L MI27-17,L MO40-34;wWI31-26,wPSU27-20,w@OSU28-21
23  22. Wisconsin        9-3 L@PSU38-7,L@Ill31-26,L@OSU38-17;wMich37-21
25t 23. BYU              8-2 L@UCLA27-17,L@Tulsa55-47
19  24. Clemson          8-3 L@GT31-3,L VT41-23,L BC20-17
    25. Texas Tech       8-4 L Col31-26,L@OkSt49-45,L@Mizz41-10,L@Tex59-43;wOK34-27
out:
24      Michigan         8-4 L App34-32,L Ore39-7,L@WI37-21,L OSU14-3;wPSU14-9,wIL27-17
25t     Penn State       8-4 L@Mich14-9,L@MichSt27-20,L@Ill27-20,L@OSU37-17;wWis38-7
  
key: Loss to ranked team
     Loss to unranked team
     Loss to team with losing record
     Win over ranked team
     Win over ranked team who falls out this week
    

The early part of the second ten can be logically ranked pretty easily. Virginia Tech is slightly behind Boston College due to head-to-head competition, as the Eagles won a close game on the Hokies' home field. Virginia Tech, Georgia, Virginia, and Connecticut all have 2 losses, plus one win over a top 25 opponent; Tech's losses are both to top 10 opponents, while Georgia's are to non-top 25 foes, and Virginia's are both to teams with losing records. The Cavs get the slight advantage over Connecticut though due to a head-to-head 1 point win.

Boise State moves up one spot into the top 15; I have them just ahead of all 3-loss teams, and if they beat Hawaii they'll have a significant win that may or may not allow them to move ahead of some of the higher 2-loss teams. Their overall schedule isn't much better than Hawaii's.

#16 Cincinnati had their third loss, but they also have two wins over top 25 opponents, including #17 South Florida. Florida stays at #18 for the fourth straight week, with no bad losses but few wins over very good opponents.

Texas and USC both have a loss to a losing team and a loss to a top ten foe. Both were idle this week, but Texas moved ahead since they can claim a win over #25 Texas Tech. 

Illinois and Wisconsin moved out of the logjam of Big Ten teams from last week, as Michigan and Penn State's losses drop them from the rankings. The Illini beat the Badgers earlier this season. BYU continues to win and moves up to #23, while Clemson's third loss drops them to #24. Texas Tech rounds out the top 25, moving in on their upset win over Oklahoma.