New England Patriots 33, Indianapolis Colts 26
I'm taking a brief foray into the National Football League just because of the excitement over the upcoming Colts/Patriots game. I ran my power ratings using the NFL games to date, and, no surprise, the Patriots came out on top and the Colts were second. My score formula yielded a projected score of:
New England 33, Indianapolis 26
which is a pretty boring prediction, but my pairwise-comparison method showed a 70% chance for the Patriots to win. That's rather high for an NFL game between the two top teams. But it reflects an important fact that's been talked about, that of New England running up scores. This of course would have an effect on any pure points-based power rating, assuming they actually do it, and that no one else does it.
Regardless, here are the results of the Points (score margin based) Power Rating for the NFL:
NFL score margin power rating thru Oct. 29 games
# Team rec Rating Off Def
1. New England Patriots (8-0) 25.98 39.83 13.85
2. Indianapolis Colts (7-0) 16.83 31.86 15.02
3. Dallas Cowboys (6-1) 9.67 32.25 22.57
4. San Diego Chargers (4-3) 8.79 25.31 16.51
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) 8.37 22.61 14.24
6. Green Bay Packers (6-1) 7.61 24.41 16.79
7. Tennessee Titans (5-2) 4.77 21.13 16.36
8. Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) 4.16 20.27 16.10
9. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) 3.93 19.84 15.91
10. New York Giants (6-2) 3.79 24.66 20.86
11. Washington Redskins (4-3) 2.03 17.70 15.66
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) 0.87 18.31 17.43
13. Minnesota Vikings (2-5) 0.62 19.39 18.77
14. Kansas City Chiefs (4-3) -1.04 14.03 15.08
15. Chicago Bears (3-5) -1.23 18.94 20.17
16. Seattle Seahawks (4-3) -1.36 16.05 17.42
17. Cleveland Browns (4-3) -1.66 26.66 28.33
18. Houston Texans (3-5) -1.83 24.80 26.63
19. Cincinnati Bengals (2-5) -2.29 27.11 29.40
20. Detroit Lions (5-2) -2.67 24.35 27.02
21. Oakland Raiders (2-5) -2.96 18.02 20.99
22. Denver Broncos (3-4) -3.91 20.68 24.60
23. New York Jets (2-6) -4.33 19.45 23.78
24. Carolina Panthers (4-3) -4.41 16.18 20.59
25. New Orleans Saints (3-4) -4.95 20.48 25.43
26. Buffalo Bills (2-5) -5.31 12.61 17.93
27. Miami Dolphins (0-8) -5.70 19.84 25.54
28. Arizona Cardinals (3-4) -6.24 21.56 27.80
29. Baltimore Ravens (4-3) -6.64 12.54 19.18
30. Atlanta Falcons (1-6) -7.81 13.77 21.59
31. San Francisco 49ers (2-5) -14.92 11.27 26.20
32. St. Louis Rams (0-8) -18.08 10.69 28.78
Notice the two outliers. Every other team is within a point of the next team except the top two.
Now listed by scoring offense:
NFL scoring offense ratings thru Oct. 29 games
# Team rec Rating Off Def
1. New England Patriots (8-0) 25.98 39.83 13.85
2. Dallas Cowboys (6-1) 9.67 32.25 22.57
3. Indianapolis Colts (7-0) 16.83 31.86 15.02
4. Cincinnati Bengals (2-5) -2.29 27.11 29.40
5. Cleveland Browns (4-3) -1.66 26.66 28.33
6. San Diego Chargers (4-3) 8.79 25.31 16.51
7. Houston Texans (3-5) -1.83 24.80 26.63
8. New York Giants (6-2) 3.79 24.66 20.86
9. Green Bay Packers (6-1) 7.61 24.41 16.79
10. Detroit Lions (5-2) -2.67 24.35 27.02
11. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) 8.37 22.61 14.24
12. Arizona Cardinals (3-4) -6.24 21.56 27.80
13. Tennessee Titans (5-2) 4.77 21.13 16.36
14. Denver Broncos (3-4) -3.91 20.68 24.60
15. New Orleans Saints (3-4) -4.95 20.48 25.43
16. Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) 4.16 20.27 16.10
17. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) 3.93 19.84 15.91
18. Miami Dolphins (0-8) -5.70 19.84 25.54
19. New York Jets (2-6) -4.33 19.45 23.78
20. Minnesota Vikings (2-5) 0.62 19.39 18.77
21. Chicago Bears (3-5) -1.23 18.94 20.17
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) 0.87 18.31 17.43
23. Oakland Raiders (2-5) -2.96 18.02 20.99
24. Washington Redskins (4-3) 2.03 17.70 15.66
25. Carolina Panthers (4-3) -4.41 16.18 20.59
26. Seattle Seahawks (4-3) -1.36 16.05 17.42
27. Kansas City Chiefs (4-3) -1.04 14.03 15.08
28. Atlanta Falcons (1-6) -7.81 13.77 21.59
29. Buffalo Bills (2-5) -5.31 12.61 17.93
30. Baltimore Ravens (4-3) -6.64 12.54 19.18
31. San Francisco 49ers (2-5) -14.92 11.27 26.20
32. St. Louis Rams (0-8) -18.08 10.69 28.78
and by scoring defense:
NFL scoring defense ratings thru Oct. 29 games
# Team rec Rating Off Def
1. New England Patriots (8-0) 25.98 39.83 13.85
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) 8.37 22.61 14.24
3. Indianapolis Colts (7-0) 16.83 31.86 15.02
4. Kansas City Chiefs (4-3) -1.04 14.03 15.08
5. Washington Redskins (4-3) 2.03 17.70 15.66
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) 3.93 19.84 15.91
7. Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) 4.16 20.27 16.10
8. Tennessee Titans (5-2) 4.77 21.13 16.36
9. San Diego Chargers (4-3) 8.79 25.31 16.51
10. Green Bay Packers (6-1) 7.61 24.41 16.79
11. Seattle Seahawks (4-3) -1.36 16.05 17.42
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) 0.87 18.31 17.43
13. Buffalo Bills (2-5) -5.31 12.61 17.93
14. Minnesota Vikings (2-5) 0.62 19.39 18.77
15. Baltimore Ravens (4-3) -6.64 12.54 19.18
16. Chicago Bears (3-5) -1.23 18.94 20.17
17. Carolina Panthers (4-3) -4.41 16.18 20.59
18. New York Giants (6-2) 3.79 24.66 20.86
19. Oakland Raiders (2-5) -2.96 18.02 20.99
20. Atlanta Falcons (1-6) -7.81 13.77 21.59
21. Dallas Cowboys (6-1) 9.67 32.25 22.57
22. New York Jets (2-6) -4.33 19.45 23.78
23. Denver Broncos (3-4) -3.91 20.68 24.60
24. New Orleans Saints (3-4) -4.95 20.48 25.43
25. Miami Dolphins (0-8) -5.70 19.84 25.54
26. San Francisco 49ers (2-5) -14.92 11.27 26.20
27. Houston Texans (3-5) -1.83 24.80 26.63
28. Detroit Lions (5-2) -2.67 24.35 27.02
29. Arizona Cardinals (3-4) -6.24 21.56 27.80
30. Cleveland Browns (4-3) -1.66 26.66 28.33
31. St. Louis Rams (0-8) -18.08 10.69 28.78
32. Cincinnati Bengals (2-5) -2.29 27.11 29.40
New England is also #1 on defense, once adjustments are made for opposition. It's true the Colts have played tougher opponents, but New England's opponents have tougher defenses. The Colts are #3 in defense when adjusted, instead of #1. So it will be the #1 offense and defense vs. the #3 offense and defense that clash on Sunday.
The Win/Loss component I use for the college game is not as relevant for the pros, where there is more parity. But for completeness' sake:
NFL Power Rating: Win/loss component
# Team rec rating
1. New England Patriots (8-0) 9.51
2. Indianapolis Colts (7-0) 8.94
3. Green Bay Packers (6-1) 3.73
4. Dallas Cowboys (6-1) 3.69
5. New York Giants (6-2) 2.26
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) 2.11
7. Tennessee Titans (5-2) 2.02
8. Detroit Lions (5-2) 1.77
9. Washington Redskins (4-3) 1.41
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) 1.29
11. San Diego Chargers (4-3) 1.17
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) 1.06
13. Chicago Bears (3-5) 0.89
14. Kansas City Chiefs (4-3) 0.86
15. Carolina Panthers (4-3) 0.78
16. Seattle Seahawks (4-3) 0.77
17. Denver Broncos (3-4) 0.75
18. Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) 0.74
19. Cleveland Browns (4-3) 0.71
20. New Orleans Saints (3-4) 0.57
21. Baltimore Ravens (4-3) 0.52
22. Arizona Cardinals (3-4) 0.51
23. Houston Texans (3-5) 0.43
24. Minnesota Vikings (2-5) 0.35
25. Oakland Raiders (2-5) 0.29
26. Cincinnati Bengals (2-5) 0.28
27. San Francisco 49ers (2-5) 0.24
28. Buffalo Bills (2-5) 0.24
29. New York Jets (2-6) 0.16
30. Atlanta Falcons (1-6) 0.12
31. St. Louis Rams (0-8) -9.28
32. Miami Dolphins (0-8) -9.46
The extra win is what gives New England the slightly higher score. Do the Rams play the Dolphins? I'd be almost as interested in that game...
and now the combined ratings:
NFL Overall Power Rating for games thru Oct. 29
# Team rec rating Points Win/Loss
1. New England Patriots (8-0) 35.49 [ 1] 25.98 [ 1] 9.51 [ 1]
2. Indianapolis Colts (7-0) 25.77 [ 2] 16.83 [ 2] 8.94 [ 2]
3. Dallas Cowboys (6-1) 13.36 [ 3] 9.67 [ 3] 3.69 [ 4]
4. Green Bay Packers (6-1) 11.34 [ 4] 7.61 [ 6] 3.73 [ 3]
5. San Diego Chargers (4-3) 9.97 [ 5] 8.79 [ 4] 1.17 [11]
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) 9.67 [ 6] 8.37 [ 5] 1.29 [10]
7. Tennessee Titans (5-2) 6.80 [ 7] 4.77 [ 7] 2.02 [ 7]
8. New York Giants (6-2) 6.05 [ 8] 3.79 [10] 2.26 [ 5]
9. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) 6.05 [ 9] 3.93 [ 9] 2.11 [ 6]
10. Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) 4.91 [10] 4.16 [ 8] 0.74 [18]
11. Washington Redskins (4-3) 3.45 [11] 2.03 [11] 1.41 [ 9]
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) 1.94 [12] 0.87 [12] 1.06 [12]
13. Minnesota Vikings (2-5) 0.97 [13] 0.62 [13] 0.35 [24]
14. Kansas City Chiefs (4-3) -0.17 [14] -1.04 [14] 0.86 [14]
15. Chicago Bears (3-5) -0.33 [15] -1.23 [15] 0.89 [13]
16. Seattle Seahawks (4-3) -0.59 [16] -1.36 [16] 0.77 [16]
17. Detroit Lions (5-2) -0.89 [17] -2.67 [20] 1.77 [ 8]
18. Cleveland Browns (4-3) -0.95 [18] -1.66 [17] 0.71 [19]
19. Houston Texans (3-5) -1.39 [19] -1.83 [18] 0.43 [23]
20. Cincinnati Bengals (2-5) -2.00 [20] -2.29 [19] 0.28 [26]
21. Oakland Raiders (2-5) -2.66 [21] -2.96 [21] 0.29 [25]
22. Denver Broncos (3-4) -3.16 [22] -3.91 [22] 0.75 [17]
23. Carolina Panthers (4-3) -3.62 [23] -4.41 [24] 0.78 [15]
24. New York Jets (2-6) -4.16 [24] -4.33 [23] 0.16 [29]
25. New Orleans Saints (3-4) -4.38 [25] -4.95 [25] 0.57 [20]
26. Buffalo Bills (2-5) -5.06 [26] -5.31 [26] 0.24 [28]
27. Arizona Cardinals (3-4) -5.72 [27] -6.24 [28] 0.51 [22]
28. Baltimore Ravens (4-3) -6.11 [28] -6.64 [29] 0.52 [21]
29. Atlanta Falcons (1-6) -7.69 [29] -7.81 [30] 0.12 [30]
30. San Francisco 49ers (2-5) -14.67 [30] -14.92 [31] 0.24 [27]
31. Miami Dolphins (0-8) -15.16 [31] -5.70 [27] -9.46 [32]
32. St. Louis Rams (0-8) -27.37 [32] -18.08 [32] -9.28 [31]
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