Heisman Watch, week 7...Up in the Air

If, as some have suggested, the Heisman race was Darren McFadden's to lose, he might just have done that on Saturday. But this season all the contenders have had a disastrous game, and since no one else wants to step up and claim the trophy, McFadden hangs on precariously to the lead. Even one of the surging candidates, Mike Hart, left his game with an injury. That's the kind of year it's been for the Heisman, in a race that once looked like it was glutted with solid contenders.

Top Contenders:

1. D. McFadden  24rsh 151yd 6.3av 1TD 0fmb; 2rec 30yd 0TD; 19ret; 1TD pass (W Troy)
1-1-1-1-2-1-1-  33rsh 195yd 5.9av 2TD 0fmb; 3rec 16yd 0TD; 27ret;          (L@Alab)
1               29rsh 173yd 6.0av 1TD 0fmb; 2rec 10yd 0TD; 25ret;          (L Ky)
                19rsh 138yd 7.3av 2TD 0fmb; 0rec  0yd 0TD;  0ret;          (W NTex)
                25rsh 122yd 4.9av 1TD 2fmb; 0rec  0yd 0TD;  0ret;          (W Chatt)
                17rsh  43yd 2.5av 0TD 0fmb; 1rec  5yd 0TD; 29ret;          (L Aub)
               147rsh 822yd 5.6av 7TD 2fmb; 8rec 61yd 0TD;122ret; 1TD pass

2. D. Dixon      9-15  60%  134yd  2TD 0INT;15rsh 141yd 9.4av 1TD (W Houston)
x-x-9-8-4-4-3-  16-25  64%  292yd  3TD 0INT;16rsh  76yd 4.8av 1TD (W@Mich)
2               14-20  70%  139yd  2TD 0INT; 8rsh  59yd 7.4av 1TD (W Fresno)
                28-37  76%  374yd  4TD 0INT; 9rsh   8yd 0.9av 1TD (W@Stanford)
                31-44  70%  306yd  1TD 2INT; 8rsh  17yd 2.1av 1TD (L Cal)
                21-28  75%  287yd  3TD 0INT; 7rsh  16yd 2.3av 1TD (W WashSt)
               119-169 70% 1532yd 15TD 2INT;63rsh 317yd 5.0av 6TD

3. A. Woodson   20-29  69%  250yd  3TD 0INT; 3rsh -12yd  -4av 0TD      (W EKy)
x-x-x-x-9-5-5-  15-22  68%  218yd  2TD 0INT; 8rsh -21yd  -3av 1TD      (W KentSt)
3               30-44  68%  275yd  4TD 0INT; 3rsh   0yd   0av 0TD      (W Louis)
                21-39  54%  265yd  2TD 0INT; 4rsh -23yd  -6av 1TD      (W@Ark)
                26-33  79%  303yd  5TD 1INT; 2rsh   4yd   2av 0TD      (W FLatl)
                23-40  58%  227yd  2TD 1INT; 4rsh -49yd -12av 0TD 2fmb (L@SC)
                21-38  55%  250yd  3TD 2INT; 3rsh  16yd 5.3av 1TD 0fmb (W LSU)
               156-245 64% 1786yd 21TD 4INT;27rsh -85yd  -3av 3TD 2fmb

4. C. Brennan   34-40  85%  416yd  6TD  0INT; 3rsh 23yd 7.7av 0TD (W NColorado)
5-2-2-1-1-2-2-  43-61  70%  548yd  4TD  1INT;11rsh -8yd -.7av 1TD (W@LA Tech)
4               26-32  81%  298yd  2TD  0INT; 9rsh 19yd 2.1av 3TD (W@UNLV)
                 0-0   --     0yd  0TD  0INT; 0rsh  0yd  --   0TD (W CharSo) DNP
                30-49  61%  369yd  3TD  5INT; 5rsh -2yd -.4av 1TD (W@Idaho)
                19-25  76%  219yd  1TD  0INT; 3rsh  7yd 2.3av 0TD (W UtahSt)
                44-75  59%  545yd  4TD  4INT;15rsh -1yd -.1av 1TD (W SJst)
               196-282 70% 2395yd 20TD 10INT;46rsh 38yd 0.8av 6TD

5. M. Hart      23rsh  182yd 8.2av  3TD 0fmb               (L App St)
6-10-x-x-x-x-6- 25rsh  127yd 5.1av  0TD 0fmb               (L Oregon)
5               35rsh  187yd 5.3av  2TD 0fmb 2rec 14yd 0TD (W NotreDame)
                44rsh  153yd 3.5av  1TD 0fmb 0rec  0yd 0TD (W PennSt)
                30rsh  106yd 3.5av  1TD 0fmb 1rec  4yd 0TD (W@Nwest)
                22rsh  215yd 9.8av  3TD 0fmb 3rec 18yd 0TD (W EMich)
                21rsh  102yd 4.9av  2TD 0fmb 1rec  7yd 0TD (W Purdue)
               200rsh 1078yd 5.4av 12TD 0fmb 7rec 43yd 0TD

6. S. Slaton    16rsh 109yd 6.8av 3TD 0fmb;  2rec  61yd 1TD (W WKy)
2-4-4-3-3-3-4-  24rsh 146yd 6.1av 2TD 0fmb;  2rec  10yd 0TD (W@Marsh)
6               26rsh 137yd 5.3av 3TD 0fmb;  1rec  10yd 0TD (W@Maryland)
                18rsh 110yd 6.1av 1TD 0fmb;  3rec  42yd 0TD (W ECarolina)
                13rsh  54yd 4.2av 0TD 2fmb;  1rec  13yd 0TD (L@SoFLA)
                15rsh  69yd 4.6av 0TD 0fmb;  4rec  51yd 0TD (W@Syra)
               112rsh 625yd 5.6av 9TD 2fmb; 12rec 179yd 1TD

7. Matt Ryan    32-52  62%  408yd  5TD 2INT; 4rsh -9yd -2.2av 0TD 0fmb  (W Wake)
x-x-x-x-x-x-10- 15-34  44%  142yd  1TD 1INT; 1rsh  3yd  0.3av 0TD 0fmb  (W NCSt)
7               30-44  68%  435yd  1TD 0INT; 3rsh -9yd -2.2av 0TD 1fmb  (W@GTech)
                35-51  69%  356yd  3TD 2INT; 5rsh 35yd  7.0av 1TD 0fmb  (W Army)
                24-42  57%  204yd  1TD 0INT; 3rsh  0yd  0.0av 0TD 0fmb  (W Mass)
                24-32  75%  312yd  4TD 0INT; 1rsh  8yd  8.0av 0TD 0fmb  (W BGreen)
                32-49  65%  291yd  2TD 1INT; 3rsh 10yd  3.3av 0TD 0fmb  (W@ND)
               192-304 63% 2148yd 17TD 6INT;20rsh 38yd  1.9av 1TD 1fmb

McFadden has just 43 yard outing in the Razorbacks' third loss, for a 2.5 yard average. Dennis Dixon played well this week, and Andre Woodson's stock skyrockets for beating LSU, but each had a dismal game of their own. With so much season left, it's really anyone's to take.

Colt Brennan continues his slide. He was the hero of Hawaii's comeback Friday, but the Warriors came back against a mediocre San Jose State team and Brennan's interceptions helped dig the hole in the first place. His resume is looking worse and worse: two games with 4+ interceptions, two games won by a hair against poor teams, and 6 of his 20 TDs against a Division I-AA opponent. As I said early on, he had to keep putting up great numbers and stay undefeated; he's done the latter, barely, but not the former.

Going in the opposite direction is Mike Hart, whose stock continues to rise. He had a great highlight reel touchdown against Purdue and went over 1,000 yards; he's the nation's leading rusher, and the most consistent, with all his games over 100 yards; he may be hurt, but not seriously, and if that's the case it can only increase his "story" appeal that started with his guaranteed win over Notre Dame and continues as Michigan's comeback gains steam. Hart passes the idle Steve Slaton to become the #2 running back in the race.

Matt Ryan of undefeated Boston College rounds out the top contenders. Moreso than any other leaders on undefeated teams Ryan has been the cause of their success and put up good numbers. Some people are trying to make him the front-runner, but we've seen what happens to the front-runner d'jour. B.C. has to keep winning for Ryan to have a shot.

Other candidates:

Graham Harrell   44-59  75%  419yd  4TD 0INT; 1rsh   1yd  1av 1TD 0fmb (W@SMU)
x-x-x-x-x-x-x-   48-64  75%  484yd  4TD 1INT; 3rsh  -8yd -2av 0TD 1fmb (W UTEP)
8                28-37  76%  414yd  6TD 1INT; 4rsh -12yd -3av 0TD 1fmb (W@Rice)
                 46-67  69%  646yd  5TD 0INT; 3rsh  -3yd -1av 0TD 0fmb (L@OKst)
                 26-40  65%  338yd  5TD 0INT; 1rsh   7yd  7av 0TD 0fmb (W NwstSt)
                 36-43  84%  425yd  4TD 1INT; 4rsh -10yd -3av 1TD 0fmb (W ISU)
                 30-37  81%  425yd  3TD 0INT; 3rsh  -6yd -2av 1TD 1fmb (W TexAM)
                258-347 74% 3151yd 31TD 3INT;19rsh -31yd -2av 3TD 3fmb

Pat White       10-18  58% 192yd 2TD 0INT; 9rsh  97yd 10.8av 2TD (W WKy)
10-8-7-7-7-9-7- 13-18  72% 149yd 2TD 0INT;17rsh 125yd  7.4av 1TD (W@Marshall)
9                8-13  62%  95yd 0TD 0INT;11rsh  22yd  2.0av 1TD (W@Maryland)
                18-20  90% 181yd 2TD 0INT; 9rsh  42yd  4.7av 2TD (W ECarolina)
                12-18  67% 100yd 0TD 1INT; 9rsh  36yd  4.0av 0TD (L SoFLA)
                12-15  80% 148yd 1TD 0INT;14rsh  89yd  6.4av 1TD (W@Syracuse)
                73-102 72% 865yd 7TD 1INT;69rsh 411yd  6.0av 7TD

Tim Tebow       13-17  76%  300yd  3TD 0INT;  8rsh  38yd 4.8av 1TD 0fmb (W WKy)
x-x-10-9-8-8-8- 18-25  72%  236yd  3TD 0INT; 17rsh  93yd 5.5av 2TD 0fmb (W Troy)
10              14-19  74%  299yd  2TD 1INT; 18rsh  61yd 3.4av 2TD 0fmb (W Tenn)
                20-34  59%  261yd  2TD 0INT; 27rsh 166yd 6.1av 2TD 0fmb (W@Miss)
                20-27  74%  201yd  1TD 1INT; 19rsh  75yd 3.9av 1TD 0fmb (L Aub)
                12-26  46%  158yd  2TD 1INT; 16rsh  67yd 4.2av 1TD 0fmb (L@LSU)
                97-148 66% 1455yd 13TD 3INT;105rsh 500yd 4.8av 9TD 0fmb

out for now:

Jordy Nelson     9rec  90yd 0TD 0fmb; 1rsh 1yd;   0ret 0TD; 1TD pass (L@Auburn)
x-x-x-x-10-10-9  6rec  82yd 0TD 0fmb; 0rsh 0yd;   0ret 0TD;          (W SJState)
                15rec 209yd 1TD 0fmb; 0rsh 0yd;  82ret 0TD; 1TD pass (W MizzSt)
                12rec 116yd 1TD 0fmb; 1rsh 1yd;  89ret 1TD;          (W@Texas)
                10rec 137yd 1TD 0fmb; 0rsh 0yd;   1ret 0TD;          (L Kansas)
                 4rec  93yd 0TD 0fmb; 0rsh 0yd;   0ret 0TD;          (W Colo)
                56rec 727yd 3TD 0fmb; 2rsh 2yd; 172ret 1TD; 2TD pass

Graham Harrell has over 3,000 passing yards and over 30 TDs and has to be taken seriously in a year like this. Regardless of his "system quarterback" rap, his high completion percentage and low interception number show his talent and improvement over last year, and Tech is now 6-1. Harrell passes the idle Pat White and Tim Tebow, both of whom have their drawbacks but can't be completely counted out.

Jordy Nelson of Kansas State had another good game, but not good enough to win a Heisman trophy. Without big kick returns for touchdowns, multiple touchdown catches, and huge receiving numbers it's too hard for a receiver to compete for the trophy, especially when no one's paying attention. Chase Daniel missed his chance with a poor game against Oklahoma in Missouri's first loss. With three more weeks left to choose candidates, it's unlikely he'll get in before I start eliminating contenders.

Here's an updated TD-to-turnover chart, now without the "games played" divisor.

candidate      TDs   TOs   score
Hart           12     0     12.0
Dixon          21     2      7.0
P. White       14     1      7.0
Tebow          22     3      5.5
Harrell        34     6      4.9
Woodson        24     6      3.4
Slaton         10     2      3.3
McFadden        8     2      2.7
Brennan        26    10      2.4
Ryan           18     7      2.3