Heisman watch, week three

This week: A tie at the top, and Slaton makes the grade

Established Candidates:

1. D. McFadden 24rsh 151yd 6.3av 1TD 0fmb; 2rec 30yd 0TD; 19ret; 1TD pass (W Troy)
1-1-1-1        33rsh 195yd 5.9av 2TD 0fmb; 3rec 16yd 0TD; 27ret;          (L@Alab)
               57rsh 346yd 6.1av 3TD 0fmb; 5rec 46yd 0TD; 68ret; 1TD pass

1T. C. Brennan  34-40  85%  416yd  6TD 0INT; 3rsh 23yd 7.7av 0TD (W NColorado)
5-2-2-1         43-61  70%  548yd  4TD 1INT;11rsh -8yd -.7av 1TD (W@LA Tech)
                26-32  81%  298yd  2TD 0INT; 9rsh 19yd 2.1av 3TD (W@UNLV)
               103-133 77% 1262yd 12TD 1INT;23rsh 34yd 1.5av 4TD

3. S. Slaton   16rsh 109yd 6.8av 3TD 0fmb; 2rec 61yd 1TD (W WKy)
2-4-4-3        24rsh 146yd 6.1av 2TD 0fmb; 2rec 10yd 0TD (W@Marsh)
               26rsh 137yd 5.3av 3TD 0fmb; 1rec 10yd 0TD (W@Maryland)
               66rsh 392yd 5.9av 8TD 0fmb; 5rec 81yd 1TD

Darren McFadden had a great game in Arkansas' loss; he did all he could except complete his touchdown pass attempt on 2nd-and-goal from the 4. But the loss allows Colt Brennan to move into a tie for the top spot. His passing numbers weren't quite as guady as usual (298 yards, 2 TDs) but he ran for 3 more scores giving him 16 TDs vs. 1 interception in 3 games compared to McFadden's 4TDs in 2 games. See the end of this post for a full TD vs. INT analysis for the candidates.

Steve Slaton moves into the official short list. Three games, three wins, three 100+yd. performances—only Jamaal Charles of Texas and Kentucky's Rafael Little can say the same, and Slaton has more TDs than both of them combined. Plus he has to share the limelight (and rushing yardage) with teammate Patrick White and even freshman Noel Devine. Slaton will need to shine in WVa's tougher games to make a case as a finalist, but right now he's in the thick of things for his consistency.

Contenders:

Ray Rice       25rsh 184yd 7.4av 3TD 0fmb; 2rec 21yd 0TD (W Buff)
8-7-5-4        37rsh 175yd 4.7av 2TD 0fmb; 3rec 40yd 1TD (W Navy)
               12rsh  72yd 6.0av 3TD 0fmb; 0rec  0yd 0TD (W Norfolk)
               74rsh 431yd 5.8av 8TD 0fmb; 5rec 61yd 1TD

Brian Brohm    16-21  76%  375yd  4TD 0INT; 1rsh  1yd 1.0av 1TD (W MurraySt)
4-3-3-5        25-39  64%  401yd  5TD 0INT; 6rsh 25yd 4.2av 0TD (W M.Tenn)
               28-43  65%  366yd  2TD 1INT; 6rsh -7yd  -1av 0TD (L@Kentucky)
               69-103 67% 1142yd 11TD 1INT;13rsh 19yd 1.5av 1TD

John D. Booty  21-32 65% 206yd 3TD 1INT; 1rsh  2yd   2av 0TD (W Idaho)
3-5-6-6        19-30 63% 144yd 2TD 0INT; 2rsh -4yd - 2av 0TD (W@Nebraska)
               40-62 65% 359yd 5TD 1INT; 3rsh -2yd -.6av 0TD

Pat White      10-18 58% 192yd 2TD 0INT; 9rsh  97yd 10.8av 2TD (W WKy)
10-8-7-7       13-18 72% 149yd 2TD 0INT;18rsh 125yd  6.9av 1TD (W@Marshall)
                8-13 62%  95yd 0TD 0INT;11rsh  22yd  2.0av 1TD (W@Maryland)
               31-49 63% 436yd 4TD 0INT;36rsh 244yd  6.8av 4TD

Dennis Dixon    9-15 60% 134yd 2TD 0INT;15rsh 141yd 9.4av 1TD (W Houston)
x-x-9-8        16-25 64% 292yd 3TD 0INT;16rsh  76yd 4.8av 1TD (W@Mich)
               14-20 70% 139yd 2TD 0INT; 8rsh  59yd 7.4av 1TD (W Fresno)
               39-60 65% 565yd 7TD 0INT;39rsh 276yd 7.1av 3TD

Tim Tebow      13-17 76% 300yd 3TD 0INT; 8rsh  38yd 4.8av 1TD 0fmb (W WKy)
x-x-10-9       18-25 72% 236yd 3TD 0INT;17rsh  93yd 5.5av 2TD 0fmb (W Troy)
               14-19 74% 299yd 2TD 1INT;18rsh  61yd 3.4av 2TD 0fmb (W Tenn)
               45-61 74% 835yd 8TD 1INT;43rsh 192yd 4.5av 5TD 0fmb

Jordy Nelson    9rec  90yd 0TD 0fmb; 1rsh 1yd;  0ret; 1TD pass (L@Auburn)
x-x-x-10        6rec  82yd 0TD 0fmb; 0rsh 0yd;  0ret;          (W SJState)
               15rec 209yd 1TD 0fmb; 0rsh 0yd; 82ret; 1TD pass (W MizzSt)
               30rec 381yd 1TD 0fmb; 1rsh 1yd; 82ret; 2TD pass

out for now:

D. Jackson      4rec  45yd 0TD 0fmb; 1rsh  21yd 0TD; 77ret 1TD (W Tenn)
7-6-8-x         5rec  39yd 0TD 0fmb; 2rsh  78yd 1TD; 24ret 0TD (W Colo St)
                5rec  28yd 0TD 0fmb; 1rsh   6yd 0TD; -6ret 0TD (W LTech)
               14rec 112yd 0TD 0fmb; 4rsh 105yd 1TD; 95ret 1TD

Louisville's loss hurts Brohm as a QB, though it won't be remembered as his fault; he guided them to the go-ahead TD, then nearly pulled it out with a miracle at the end. He has 11 TD passes and only 1 interception (on the first play against Kentucky) and over 1,000 yards already, if Louisville regroups he'll be on the short list soon. Ray Rice moves ahead of him despite only 12 carries against Norfolk State, as he was really needed in the 59-0 blowout. He had 3 touchdowns for the Scarlett Knights.

John David Booty and Pat White hold at #6 and #7. Neither had 150 yards passing last week, despite guiding their offenses to strong showings. Both are limited by the high quality of their teammates in terms of how much they can do themselves; USC's ground game did the majority of damage against Nebraska.

Dennis Dixon and Tim Tebow run and pass their way up a spot. DeSean Jackson of California, however, had another pedestrian game as reciever (5 catches, 28 yards) and this time no highlight reel touchdown, and his overall numbers (14 receptions, 112 yards, 0 TD) aren't good enough to keep him on the list. To replace him I chose another receiver who had more catches and yards last week than Jackson had all season. Jordy Nelson of Kansas State had 15 receptions for 209 yards and a touchdown. He's also passed for 2 touchdowns this season, which gives him the secondary stats that non-QB/RB candidates need to get attention. K State might not have enough success to put the spotlight on Nelson, but at least for this week I wanted to replace Jackson with another receiver rather than throw in yet another quarterback.

considerations:

QBs:

Sam Bradford   59-74  80% 823yds 11TD 1INT;  6rsh   5yd 0.8av 0TD

Curtis Painter 81-118 69% 952yd  13TD 0INT;  5rsh -13yd  -3av 0TD

Andre Woodson  65-95  68% 743yd   9TD 0INT; 14rsh -33yd  -2av 1TD

RB:

Michael Hart   83rsh 502yd 6.0av 5TD 0fmb 2rec 14yd 0TD

Several good quarterbacks almost make the list. Sam Bradford, of course, continues to amaze with a near-80% completion rate. Curtis Painter of Purdue has the best TD to INT ratio in the country; and Andre Woodson's heroics against Louisville gave him the big win Kentucky needs to get national notice. Purdue and Kentucky will have to keep winning to help Painter and Woodson get established, while Bradford has perhaps a tougher road as a freshman in terms of getting credit for his team's success.

Finally Michael Hart can't be ignored, despite Michigan's travails. He's been consistently good for the Wolverines, and his strongly-backed-up guarantee of victory over Notre Dame is the kind of intangible that separates normal candidates from the pack. Michigan will have to have a miracle turnaround (the kind that I propose could happen, in this analysis) if Hart is to get back into the race.

Touchdowns vs. Turnovers:

I like to compare candidates with this simple measure, with total TD's (passing, rushing, receiving) vs. turnovers (interceptions, fumbles). The formula I use is just TDs/(turnovers +1), and at this early stage it's useful to divide by games played.

candidate      TDs   TOs   games score
Dixon          10     0     3     3.33
Slaton          9     0     3     3.00
Rice            9     0     3     3.00
Brennan        16     1     3     2.67
P. White        8     0     3     2.67
Tebow          13     1     3     2.17
McFadden        4     0     2     2.00
Brohm          12     1     3     2.00
Booty           5     1     2     1.25
Nelson          3     0     3     1.00

Of the other quarterbacks being considered for the list, Woodson has a 3.33 while Painter scores an excellent 4.33.