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Wisconsin Badgers
Seed: 4
Record: 24-8
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
Kansas State Wildcats
Seed: 5
Record: 23-10
Conference: Big Twelve
Date: Saturday, March 19
Time: 8:40 pm Eastern
Location: Tucson, AZ
Region: Southeast
Wisconsin and Kansas State each got past one of the best non-major-conference schools in the country; now they face each other.
Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics
Wisconsin Kansas State
Power Ratings
Strength: #11 (#11 of 68) Strength: #31 (#30 of 68)
Neutral court: #14 Neutral court: #34
Injuries Adj: #11 Injuries Adj: #19
Tempo-free: #6 Tempo-free: #34
Offense: #2 Offense: #58
Defense: #58 Defense: #24Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #7 2nd half of season: #24
Last 6 games: #26 Last 6 games: #23
Consistency: #204 Consistency: #219
Deep Run Potential: #9 Deep Run Potential: #34
Upset Potential: #14 Upset Potential: #32
- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): @Marquette+5, Michigan+16, Illinois+10, Purdue+7, Michigan St.+26, Ohio St.+4, Penn St.+10, @Michigan+1, =Belmont+14
- Losses to tournament teams (8): @Nevada Las Vegas-3, =Notre Dame-7, @Illinois-8, @Michigan St.-OT, @Penn St.-4, @Purdue-8, @Ohio St.-28, =Penn St.-3
- Other losses (0): none
Key Info: When Wisconsin is good, they're very good, as they were when they beat North Carolina State 87-48, Northwestern 78-46, and Michigan State 82-56. But their two games right before the tournament were duds: the Badgers were crushed by Ohio State 93-65, then shot abysmally in a 36-33 loss to Penn State. They've hopefully put those games behind them with the Belmont win.
Wisconsin has a great one-two punch with Jon Leuer and Jordan Taylor, perhaps the best inside-outside threat in the country. Leuer averages 18.6 points and 7.3 rebounds, and Taylor scores 18.0 and adds 4.7 assists. Both are in the top ten of Ken Pomeroy's POY race. But if either or both struggle, the rest of the team often can't pick up any of the slack. In the Penn State game Leuer and Taylor were a combined 12 of 37, scoring 26 of the team's 33 points. Against Belmont they scored 43 combined and were 6 of 12 on three pointers.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): Gonzaga+17, Kansas+16, Missouri+10, @Texas+5, =Utah St.+5
- Losses to tournament teams (6): Duke-14, @Florida-13, Nevada Las Vegas-4, @Missouri-16, @Texas A&M-8, @Kansas-24
- Other losses (4): @Oklahoma St.-14, Colorado-8, @Colorado-2, =Colorado-12
Key Info: Kansas State started the season at #3 in the polls, started off 9-1, then started losing games in pairs until their spot in the tournament was in question. A strong finish removed all doubt there, and many attribute that to a major change in offense implemented in mid-January. At first it was unfamiliar and resulted in three more losses in four outings, but then the wins started coming.
The loss of two big men was one factor in coach Frank Martin's decision to make the switch. But as it was before the move, guard Jacob Pullen is the offense's leading force, averaging nearly 20 points per game. The team's improvement can be seen in the Second Half ranking of #24, which might be conservative in that it includes some games before (and the rough games immediately after) the switch. In the end, though, they still couldn't beat Colorado on their third try. Pullen scored 22 against Utah State.
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Game Analysis: Both these teams defeated a team as good as a 4- or 5- seed in the first round. Wisconsin's win was a bit more impressive but both got the job done.
This game is a very interesting test of another of Nate Silver's ponderings in the New York Times. He states that the pre-season AP poll is a useful indicator for the NCAA tournament results. Teams not ranked in the pre-season who finish in the top ten tend to underperform, while teams that start in the top ten and fall out tend to overperform. He attributes this to raw talent coming to the fore. I've noted this before with high-ranking teams that fall from grace and "rediscover" that they're good come tournament time; I attribute this to the players finally getting serious about things. Silver says the first part of the theory is more reliable, i.e. that surprise teams tend to fall short in the NCAAs.
If that's the case then Wisconsin (pre-season unranked, current #16) should be handicapped against Kansas State (pre-season #3, current #21). These teams don't quite fit the pattern, since Kansas State is still in the poll, and Wisconsin isn't quite in the top ten (and they started #26 which is pretty close to being ranked), but in general the Badgers overperformed expectations and K-State definitely underperformed.
Vegas Line:
Wisconsin by 2 1/2
Power rating spread
Wisconsin by 4.8
% Chance to win
Wisconsin: 63%
Kansas St.: 37%
With Wisconsin in general, it seems people are never ready to believe they're very good. And it's hard to let go of a team like Kansas State, particularly when they've had a recent resurgence. So the Vegas line is more favorable to the Wildcats than our power rating.
Bottom line: I think the slight bump to K-State is more due to their performance since switching offenses. Since the switch Wisconsin is only 4 points better than K-State, and since it really started working for the Wildcats they've improved by about three points. Still leaves them a point shy.
Final prediction: Wisconsin 66, Kansas State 65
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