2011 NCAA Tournament Round of 32 Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (3) BYU vs. (11) Gonzaga

Brigham Young Cougars
Seed: 3
Record: 31-4
Conference: Mountain West

vs.

Gonzaga Bulldogs
Seed: 11
Record: 25-9
Conference: West Coast

Date: Saturday, March 19
Time: 7:45 pm Eastern
Location: Denver, CO 
Region: Southeast

 

Having just dispatched the Terriers of Wofford, Jimmer Fredette and BYU take on the Bulldogs of Gonzaga.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Brigham Young                      Gonzaga

Power Ratings

Strength:      #9 (#9 of 68)       Strength:      #33 (#31 of 68)
Neutral court: #6                  Neutral court: #32
Injuries Adj:  #68                 Injuries Adj:  #30

Tempo-free:    #11                 Tempo-free:    #33
Offense:       #10                 Offense:       #44
Defense:       #27                 Defense:       #39

Special Analyses

2nd half of season: #10            2nd half of season: #32
Last 6 games:       #68            Last 6 games:       #6

Consistency:        #309           Consistency:        #209
Deep Run Potential: #11            Deep Run Potential: #33
Upset Potential:    #5             Upset Potential:    #37

 

Season overview: Brigham Young (31-4)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (7): Utah St.+6, Arizona+22, @Nevada Las Vegas+12, San Diego St.+13, Nevada Las Vegas+14, @San Diego St.+13, =Wofford+8
  
• Losses to tournament teams (2): @UCLA-7, =San Diego St.-18
• Other losses (2): @New Mexico-9, New Mexico-18

Key Info: BYU wasn't a very consistent team even before Brandon Davies got suspended from the squad (they only found out he had violated the school's honor code—for having sex—because he got a girl pregnant). Since his suspension started, BYU has played their two worst games of the season and three of their 10 lowest-rated. This doesn't bode well for a long tourney run, and neither does an 8-point win over 14-seed Wofford.

But they still have Jimmer. Fredette is averaging a nation-leading 28.5 points per game and had 52 against New Mexico, a game in which BYU finally beat the Lobos after losing both at home and on the road. The Cougars beat San Diego State at home and on the road by 13 both times before falling in the Mountain West final by 18. The Cougars' performances are all over the place, but until recently they played either good or great games; without Davies, "poor" has been added to the mix. Fredette's 32 paced BYU against Wofford.

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Season overview: Gonzaga (25-9)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (3): =Marquette+3, Xavier+10, =St. John's+15
  
• Losses to tournament teams (5): San Diego St.-3, @Kansas St.-17, Illinois-12, @Notre Dame-4, Memphis-4
• Other losses (4): @Washington St.-22, @Santa Clara-14, @San Francisco-OT, St. Mary's-2

Key Info: Like Michigan State and Kansas State, but to a lesser level, Gonzaga started the season with lofty expectations and methodically failed to meet them, only to scramble at the end to lock up a spot in the tournament. The Zags finished the year with their second of two 9-game winning streaks.

Three returning starters lead the team in scoring, all averaging low double-figures. The Zags have gone to the tournament every year for more than a decade, so their players have valuable experience. Against St. John's, however, it was juco transfer Marquis Carter leading the way with 24 points.

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Game Analysis: Since losing Brandon Davies, BYU is 0-1 against teams better than Gonzaga, and 4-1 against teams not as good. During the same span Gonzaga has played four of its best games.

With Gonzaga on a roll, BYU will be more dependent on Fredette than ever.

Vegas Line:

Gonzaga by  2

Power rating spread

BYU  by     5.2   w/o Davies: Gonzaga by 5.4
 

% Chance to win

Brigham Young: 62%  w/o Davies: 37%
Wofford:       38%              63%

The oddsmakers of course have noted BYU's poor play since Davies' departure, and they make Gonzaga the favorite by 2 points. Our power ratings would normally make BYU a 62% favorite by 5 points, but with Davies gone everything reverses.

And if we just look at both teams' last 6 games—which corresponds to BYU without Davies and Gonzaga's recent roll—Gonzaga is a 14 point favorite.

Bottom line: BYU has not played like the team they were all season. Somewhere along the line they're going to lose, probably next game if not this one. Only a monster game by Fredette can forestall the inevitable, and Gonzaga is playing so well I don't think it will be enough.

Final prediction: Gonzaga 80, BYU 71