2011 NCAA Tournament Round of 32 Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (2) San Diego State vs. (7) Temple

San Diego State Aztecs
Seed: 2
Record: 33-2
Conference: Mountain West

vs.

Temple Owls
Seed: 7
Record: 26-7
Conference: Atlantic 10

Date: Saturday, March 18
Time: 6:10 pm Eastern
Location: Tuscon, AZ 
Region: West

 

Two teams with very different styles clash in the (real) second round.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     San Diego State                    Temple

Power Ratings

Strength:      #10 (#10 of 68)     Strength:      #41 (#37 of 68)
Neutral court: #11                 Neutral court: #40
Injuries Adj:  #10                 Injuries Adj:  #56

Tempo-free:    #9                  Tempo-free:    #37
Offense:       #22                 Offense:       #56
Defense:       #5                  Defense:       #28

Special Analyses

2nd half of season: #6             2nd half of season: #44
Last 6 games:       #4             Last 6 games:       #52

Consistency:        #87            Consistency:        #74
Deep Run Potential: #7             Deep Run Potential: #30
Upset Potential:    #15            Upset Potential:    #49

 

Season overview: San Diego State (33-2)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (7): @Gonzaga+3, UC Santa Barbara+26, Nevada Las Vegas+6, @Nevada Las Vegas+6, @Nevada Las Vegas+2, =Brigham Young+18, =Northern Colorado+18
  
• Losses to tournament teams (2): @Brigham Young-13, Brigham Young-13
• Other losses (0):none

Key Info: San Diego State finally got over the hump against BYU in the last game of the season. Before that it looked like they'd fall to a clean sweep against Fredette and company, but with the Cougars' Brandon Davies out it was no contest, and the Aztecs beat their rivals as badly as they'd been handled in the previous two matchups.

And with that, the team has avenged all their losses. Their slate of wins is extensive but limited to lower-seeded teams and UNLV three times, so they still have a lot to prove in the tournament. All-American candidate Kawhi Leonard averages a double-double at 15.4/10.4 per game, while Malcolm Thomas is close and DJ Gay is in double figures in scoring. Coach Steve Fisher is a tournament veteran, having led Michigan to a national title in 1989 after taking over the team from Bill Frieder in the postseason. Now he has his first NCAA win with his current team.

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Season overview: Temple (26-7)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (5): =Georgia+7, Georgetown+3, Akron+35, Richmond+20, =Penn State+4
  
• Losses to tournament teams (5): =Texas A&M-3, @Villanova-4, @Xavier-11, @Duke-17, =Richmond-4
• Other losses (2): =California-7, @Duquesne-12

Key Info: Temple has declines somewhat over the course of the season, so that they rank about 10 spots lower than they do for the whole year. It hasn't stopped them from winning a lot of games, as they finished 14-2 in the Atlantic 10, but they had a few close calls that shouldn't have been close. In December they beat Georgetown, but in late February Duke beat them by 17.

A lot of that has to do with the absence of Scootie Randall, the team's 3rd leading scorer, and former starter Michael Eric, the team's best big man. Randall returned to start against Penn State, but as we expected he wasn't a factor, playing just 6 minutes and not scoring. If Temple reaches the Sweet Sixteen we'll consider him healed; until then Temple is best judged using their numbers without him.

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Game Analysis: San Diego State runs with the ball and wants to score a lot of points. Temple plays solid defense and is patient on offense. That's the conventional wisdom about these teams. But the Aztecs actually play at a slower tempo overall than Temple, and they're stingier on defense.

And they're more efficient on offense, too. And better over the 2nd half of the season, and last six games and...just about any marker you want to use. The main advantage Temple has is tournament experience.

Vegas Line:

San Diego State by  6

Power rating spread

San Diego State by  6.2   
 

% Chance to win

San Diego State:    71% 
Temple:             29% 

Vegas agrees with our full-year, standard power rating that SDSU should be a 6 point favorite. Temple loses a couple of points without Randall, who didn't play much on Thursday and probably won't be better by Saturday.

Bottom line: San Diego State only danger is being too satisfied with their first win. But Temple has the same danger after getting their first tourney win since 2001. An upset isn't out of the question here as the Aztecs are very green, but they're the better team.

Final prediction: San Diego State 67, Temple 59