Florida Gators
Seed: 2
Record: 27-7
Conference: SEC
vs.
UCLA Bruins
Seed: 7
Record: 23-10
Conference: Pac 10
Date: Saturday, March 19
Time: 2:45 pm Eastern
Location: Tampa, FL
Region: Southeast
Florida plays another close-to-home game against another west coast squad.
Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics
Florida UCLA
Power Ratings
Strength: #28 (#27 of 68) Strength: #56 (#46 of 68)
Neutral court: #26 Neutral court: #53
Injuries Adj: #26 Injuries Adj: #51
Tempo-free: #22 Tempo-free: #53
Offense: #23 Offense: #87
Defense: #42 Defense: #34Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #18 2nd half of season: #42
Last 6 games: #5 Last 6 games: #35
Consistency: #284 Consistency: #222
Deep Run Potential: #35 Deep Run Potential: #59
Upset Potential: #21 Upset Potential: #51
- Wins vs. tournament teams (14): Morehead St.+6, @Florida St.+4, Kansas St.+13, @Xavier+4, @Tennessee+OT, @Georgia+OT, Vanderbilt+OT, Kentucky+2, Tennessee+1, Georgia+9, @Vanderbilt+10, =Tennessee+11, =Vanderbilt+11, UC Santa Barbara+28
- Losses to tournament teams (3): Ohio St.-18, @Kentucky-8, =Kentucky-16
- Other losses (4): @Central Florida-3, Jacksonville-OT, South Carolina-3, @Mississippi St.-7
Key Info: Those who were shocked by Florida's 2-seed should look at that top bullet point—Florida had 13 wins over tournament teams and now has 14. Sure, they don't rank that well in power ratings, but the committee doesn't use those. They won a lot of close games that could just as easily have been losses—but again, not something the committee cares about. And they had some bad losses, but wins are what matters most in the end.
The team was hitting its stride late when they fell apart against Kentucky. This follows that pattern of unpredictability (if that makes any sense) that has plagued the Gators and makes us question whether they can put together a Final Four run. They're vulnerable to being upset, but if they clear the early hurdles they can beat a better team. They'll have to, to make it very far, as they rank only as good as a 6 or 7 seed for the complete season. Florida is led by guards Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton but it was Chandler Parsons who sparked their opening win with nearly a triple-double.
**************************************************************
- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): Brigham Young+7, Southern California+14, St. John's+7, Arizona+22, =Michigan St.+2
- Losses to tournament teams (7): =Villanova-12, =Virginia Commonwealth-4, @Kansas-1, Washington-11, @Southern California-11, @Arizona-11, @Washington-7
- Other losses (3): Montana-9, @California-OT, Oregon-17
Key Info: Will the real UCLA please stand up? The Bruins were 3-3 after losing to Kansas by just a point on the road, and the disappointment carried over to a terrible home loss to Montana three days later. But they recovered to beat BYU. In conference play, UCLA was suddenly very consistent, win or lose, though they might be good one half and bad the other. Still, that translated into a lot of wins and they found themselves tied for first place after beating Arizona. They still hadn't played a truly bad game all conference season until the tournament, when 7th place Oregon cleaned their clocks.
Somewhat of a throwback, the Bruins play a fairly tall lineup, with just one guard among their top four scorers; the other three all average well over 5 rebounds per game. Against guard-oriented Michigan State the Bruins raced to a huge lead then, true to their erratic form, nearly blew it in the waning minutes as those guards starting hitting 3-pointers and UCLA couldn't buy a free throw. If they get a lead against Florida they can't afford to let it slip away like that.
**************************************************************
Game Analysis: Florida played a great opening game and and UCLA played an even better one—for the first 35 minutes. If the finish of that game carries over to a terrible start, UCLA is doomed.
They're also facing another close-to-home-court game for Florida, while they're 2,000 miles from home themselves. If Nate Silver is right, playing that far away is a big disadvantage. We just give Florida the standard home court advantage.
Vegas Line:
Florida by 5
Power rating spread
Florida by 7.8
% Chance to win
Florida: 69%
UCLA: 31%
Vegas might be adding in a small amount for the teams' distances from home, but it's hard to say. Our power rating has the Gators by about 8.
Bottom line: Both teams played four good games, then one awful one (Florida losing to Kentucky, and UCLA or Oregon), before bouncing back with an opening round win. Florida's loss was more understandable and their win more convincing. UCLA nearly blew it at the end and I don't think they'll get out to a very fast start against Florida, who should get their 2nd straight win over a California school.
Final prediction: Florida 70, UCLA 60
Comments