Richmond Spiders
Seed: 12
Record: 28-7
Conference: Atlantic 10
vs.
Morehead State Eagles
Seed: 13
Record: 25-9
Conference: Ohio Valley
Date: Saturday, March 19
Time: 5:10 pm Eastern
Location: Denver, CO
Region: Southwest
Two giant-killers meet in the second round, meaning a double-digit seed will make the Sweet Sixteen once again.
Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics
Richmond Morehead St.
Power Ratings
Strength: #48 (#43 of 68) Strength: #104 (#55 of 68)
Neutral court: #50 Neutral court: #104
Injuries Adj: #46 Injuries Adj: #102
Tempo-free: #44 Tempo-free: #106
Offense: #47 Offense: #128
Defense: #52 Defense: #90Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #53 2nd half of season: #112
Last 6 games: #19 Last 6 games: #59
Consistency: #184 Consistency: #130
Deep Run Potential: #47 Deep Run Potential: #98
Upset Potential: #48 Upset Potential: #110
- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): =Purdue+11, Virginia Commonwealth+12, =Temple+4, =Vanderbilt+3
- Losses to tournament teams (4): @Old Dominion-7, Bucknell-1, Xavier-23, @Temple-20
- Other losses (3): @Iona-OT, =Georgia Tech-13, Rhode Island-4
Key Info: Richmond was floating along this season, racking up wins while still marred by the occasional poor loss (Xavier by 23, Temple by 20) when suddenly everything clicked in the last seven games and the Spiders played like a top 25 program.
Justin Harper and Kevin Anderson are the team's dynamic duo, and Anderson especially has been on a tear lately, topping 20 points six times in the last eight wins, including 25 against Vanderbilt. The Spiders boast four senior starters.
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Season overview: Morehead State (25-9)
- Wins vs. tournament teams (2): @Indiana St.+6, =Louisville+1
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @Florida-6, @Ohio St.-19
- Other losses (7): @NC Wilmington-2, @Northern Iowa-16, @Tennessee St.-OT, @Austin Peay-OT, @Eastern Illinois-7, Eastern Kentucky-10, @Murray St.-8
Key Info: The Eagles are driven by the performance of big forward Kenneth Faried, who averages 17.6 points per game and an astonishing 14.5 rebounds. Fellow senior guard Demonte Harper adds 16 points per game and hits 40% of his threes, so Morehead State has legitimate scoring threats inside and out. Harper hit the late three pointer that killed Louisville.
This talent didn't translate into very many victories early in the year, but during the Ohio Valley season they hit their stride and added a win over Indiana State in a Bracketbusters game. Against high seeded Florida and Ohio State on the road, the Eagles lost big to the Buckeyes but played the Gators close. They ruined many brackets on Thursday, too.
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Game Analysis: There's a reason that 12-seeds are 7-1 all-time against 13-seeds: because that's the dividing line between teams that get to be in the tournament because they're a top 50 team, and those who qualify for being the best among weak teams.
Morehead State is a fluke. They deserve credit for beating Louisville, and they could become a double-fluke by beating the Spiders, but it's doubtful. They're one of the better teams from perennial 1-bid leagues, but Richmond is legit. Not only that, but they've been playing their best basketball for the last 8 games.
Vegas Line:
Richmond by 3 1/2
Power rating spread
Richmond by 6.3
% Chance to win
Richmond: 69%
Morehead St.: 31%
The Vegas line seems low to me considering that the strength of the Atlantic 10 this year. Even 6.3 seems low, unless you think Morehead is going to play again like they did against Louisville. Instead of around 7 in 10, I'd put Richmond's odds of winning at 7 of 8, just like the historical average of 12s vs. 13s.
Bottom line: Spiders in the Sweet Sixteen.
Final prediction: Richmond 66, Morehead State 58
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