Pittsburgh Panthers
Seed: 1
Record: 28-5
Conference: Big East
vs.
Butler Bulldogs
Seed: 8
Record: 24-9
Conference: Horizon
Date: Saturday, March 19
Time: 7:10 pm Eastern
Location: Washington, DC
Region: Southeast
Pitt faces their second straight set of Bulldogs, and this pack has a lot more bite.
Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics
Pittsburgh Butler
Power Ratings
Strength: #4 (#4 of 68) Strength: #45 (#40 of 68)
Neutral court: #4 Neutral court: #47
Injuries Adj: #4 Injuries Adj: #41
Tempo-free: #4 Tempo-free: #47
Offense: #4 Offense: #34
Defense: #23 Defense: #76Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #3 2nd half of season: #54
Last 6 games: #8 Last 6 games: #34
Consistency: #48 Consistency: #325
Deep Run Potential: #3 Deep Run Potential: #67
Upset Potential: #11 Upset Potential: #33
- Wins vs. tournament teams (11): =Texas+2, Connecticut+15, Marquette+8, @Georgetown+15, Syracuse+8, Cincinnati+12, @West Virginia+5, @Villanova+3, West Virginia+13, Villanova+10, =NC Asheville+23
- Losses to tournament teams (5): Tennessee-7, Notre Dame-5, @St. John's-1, @Louisville-OT, =Connecticut-2
- Other losses (0): none
Key Info: Pittsburgh has been playing solid but unspectacular basketball for the last several weeks, not quite reaching the highs they did early in the year. It's good enough to beat North Carolina Asheville but not good enough to win the Big East tournament, nor get the Final Four. Can they pick it back up?
Ashton Gibbs is the team's leading scorer and had another great outing against Asheville with 26 points. Brad Wanamaker is the team's all-purpose guard and 2nd leading scorer but he had just 6 points. There are really no weak links on the team, but is motivation a factor? Maybe the Panthers were just waiting for the Big Dance to start to get serious? If so, they're off to a pretty good start by taking care of business in the first round.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (2): =Florida St.+3, =Old Dominion+2
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @Louisville-15, =Duke-12, @Xavier-2
- Other losses (6): Evansville-OT, @Wisconsin Milwaukee-24, @Wright St.-5, Wisconsin Milwaukee-OT, @Valparaiso-OT, @Youngstown St.-2
Key Info: Looking at Butler's year, the early season had more peaks so it's easy to see why their 2nd half ranking is #54 to their overall #45. They picked up again at the end to rank 33rd over the last six games; will that last? Another interesting stat is their Consistency rank of #325; we doubt the Bulldogs will return to the title game this year, but if their variance is on the upside they could upset some better teams, and they're facing a #1 seed.
The team is clearly not as good as last year's model, mainly for the loss of Gordon Hayward, but Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack have been just as good as they were on the Bulldogs' NCAA runner-up squad; both had 15 points against Old Dominion. The experience of last year's run will be invaluable, too.
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Game Analysis: Pitt had a breather in the first round like 1-seeds tend to, and didn't take any time to get moving like we suspected they might. Now it's a different ball game, as 8-seeds have defeated 1-seeds many a time. Nine times, to be exact. And Butler is a notorious giant-killer that won't be underestimated by anyone.
Vegas Line:
Pittsburgh by 7 1/2
Power rating spread
Pittsburgh by 8.9
% Chance to win
Pittsburgh: 73%
Butler: 27%
According to our game-comparison numbers, Butler has a bit better than the average 19% chance to win that most 8-seeds have, which is fitting for both their tradition and their variance of play. The Bulldogs have good games and bad ones, and they need to hit one of the good ones Saturday.
Bottom line: Pitt won't be overlooking Butler; you don't dismiss last year's runner-up. Still, I think Butler will provide a challenge for the Panthers but fall short.
Final prediction: Pittsburgh 70, Butler 63
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