2011 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (4) Wisconsin vs. (8) Butler

Wisconsin Badgers
Seed: 4
Record: 25-8
Conference: Big Ten

vs.

Butler Bulldogs
Seed: 8
Record: 25-9
Conference: Horizon

Date: Thursday, March 24
Time: 9:57 pm Eastern
Location: New Orleans, LA
Region: Southeast

 

Look for a slow-tempo, half-court game when Wisconsin and Butler clash in the Big Easy.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Wisconsin                          Butler

Power Ratings

Strength:      #10 (#7 of 16)      Strength:      #45 (#15 of 16)
Neutral court: #12                 Neutral court: #43
Injuries Adj:  #8                  Injuries Adj:  #39

Tempo-free:    #5                  Tempo-free:    #46
Offense:       #2                  Offense:       #33
Defense:       #56                 Defense:       #74

Special Analyses

2nd half of season: #6             2nd half of season: #49
Last 6 games:       #24            Last 6 games:       #27 Consistency:        #197           Consistency:        #319

 

Season overview: Wisconsin (25-8)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (10): @Marquette+5, Michigan+16, Illinois+10, Purdue+7, Michigan St.+26, Ohio St.+4, Penn St.+10, @Michigan+1, =Belmont+14, =Kansas St.+5
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (2): @Marquette+5, Michigan St.+26
  
• Losses to tournament teams (8): @Nevada Las Vegas-3, =Notre Dame-7, @Illinois-8, @Michigan St.-OT, @Penn St.-4, @Purdue-8, @Ohio St.-28, =Penn St.-3
• Other losses (0): none

Key Info: When Wisconsin is good, they're very good, as they were when they beat North Carolina State 87-48, Northwestern 78-46, and Michigan State 82-56. But their two games right before the tournament were duds: the Badgers were crushed by Ohio State 93-65, then shot abysmally in a 36-33 loss to Penn State. They've hopefully put those games behind them with the Belmont and K-State wins.

Wisconsin has a great one-two punch with Jon Leuer and Jordan Taylor, perhaps the best inside-outside threat in the country. Leuer averages 18.6 points and 7.3 rebounds, and Taylor scores 18.0 and adds 4.7 assists. Both are in the top ten of Ken Pomeroy's POY race. But if either or both struggle, the rest of the team often can't pick up any of the slack. In the Penn State game Leuer and Taylor were a combined 12 of 37, scoring 26 of the team's 33 points. Against Belmont they scored 43 combined and were 6 of 12 on three pointers; against K-State Leuer had 19 while Taylor had 12 on 2-of-16 shooting.

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Season overview: Butler (25-9)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (3): =Florida St.+3, =Old Dominion+2, =Pittsburgh+1
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (1): =Florida St.+3
  
• Losses to tournament teams (3): @Louisville-15, =Duke-12, @Xavier-2
• Other losses (6): Evansville-OT, @Wisconsin Milwaukee-24, @Wright St.-5, Wisconsin Milwaukee-OT, @Valparaiso-OT, @Youngstown St.-2

Key Info: Looking at Butler's year, the early season had more peaks so it's easy to see why their 2nd half used to rank so much worse than the first half. But will their recent play, there's not much difference. Another interesting stat is their Consistency rank of #319; we doubt the Bulldogs will return to the title game this year, but last review we noted that if their variance is on the upside they could upset some better teams. Old Dominion and Pitt realize that, too, and Wisconsin could find out.

The team is clearly not as good as last year's model, mainly for the loss of Gordon Hayward, but Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack have been just as good as they were on the Bulldogs' NCAA runner-up squad; both had 15 points against Old Dominion, and Mack had 30 against Pitt. The experience of last year's run will continue to be invaluable. They were here last year, while Wisconsin hasn't been in the Sweet Sixteen since 2008.

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Game Analysis: Both teams play a slower tempo, but Wisconsin plays the slowest tempo in the nation. Butler could counter by trying to run, but Wisconsin normally gets the slow tempo it wants, so the Bulldogs might just acquiesce and make the game a true half-court battle. They just beat another slow-tempo team, Pittsburgh, at their own game (with a little luck at the end).

Last year Butler overperformed on the way to runner-up status; in the Strength Power Rating they finished the year at #26, and were much lower before the tournament. They're up to #45 this year, and have won two very close games. It's doubtful they can make it to the Final Four, but can they at least get one more upset?

Vegas Line:

Wisconsin by  4

Power rating spread

Wisconsin by  6.8     

% Chance to win

Wisconsin:   66% 
Butler:      34% 

Butler went all the way to the final game last year pulling off upsets all the way, so even with their history they don't get the benefit of the doubt. But Wisconsin is like that while being the favorite; most people can't fathom that this low-scoring team is really one of the best in the country. So it's a battle of two disrespected teams. Wisconsin is the favorite, but everyone knows in the back of their mind that Butler is a giant-killer, and low-scoring games have closer margins to make up if you get behind.

Bottom line: Butler is playing almost as well as Wisconsin recently. Almost. Butler almost blew their last game due to a reckless error, then ended up winning it for the other team's brain fart. Wisconsin—the most patient team in the country—probably won't do that.

Final prediction: Wisconsin 64, Butler 61