2011 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (2) San Diego State vs. (3) Connecticut

San Diego State Aztecs
Seed: 2
Record: 34-2
Conference: Mountain West

vs.

Connecticut Huskies
Seed: 3
Record: 28-9
Conference: Big East

Date: Thurday, March 24
Time: 7:15 pm Eastern
Location: Anaheim, CA 
Region: West

 

The nation's hottest team travels across the country to meet San Diego State near their home.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     San Diego State                    Connecticut

Power Ratings

Strength:      #11 (#6 of 16)      Strength:      #16 (#9 of 16)
Neutral court: #10                 Neutral court: #15
Injuries Adj:  #10                 Injuries Adj:  #14

Tempo-free:    #8                  Tempo-free:    #16
Offense:       #24                 Offense:       #17
Defense:       #4                  Defense:       #29

Special Analyses

2nd half of season: #7             2nd half of season: #10
Last 6 games:       #7             Last 6 games:       #2 Consistency:        #70            Consistency:        #155 

 

Season overview: San Diego State (34-2)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (8): @Gonzaga+3, UC Santa Barbara+26, Nevada Las Vegas+6, @Nevada Las Vegas+6, @Nevada Las Vegas+2, =Brigham Young+18, =Northern Colorado+18, =Temple+OT
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (1): =Brigham Young+18 
• Losses to tournament teams (2): @Brigham Young-13, Brigham Young-13
• Other losses (0): none

Key Info: San Diego State finally got over the hump against BYU in the last game of the season. Before that it looked like they'd fall to a clean sweep against Fredette and company, but with the Cougars' Brandon Davies out it was no contest, and the Aztecs beat their rivals as badly as they'd been handled in the previous two matchups. With that, the team has avenged all their losses. Their slate of wins is extensive but limited to lower-seeded teams and UNLV three times; BYU is their sole Sweet Sixteen victim, and they won once in three tries.

All-American candidate Kawhi Leonard averages a double-double at 15.4/10.4 per game, while Malcolm Thomas is close and DJ Gay is in double figures in scoring. Coach Steve Fisher is a tournament veteran, having led Michigan to a national title in 1989 after taking over the team from Bill Frieder in the postseason. Now he has his first NCAA two wins with his current team, but the 2nd one required two overtimes to beat Temple.

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Season overview: Connecticut (28-9)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (13): =Michigan St.+3, =Kentucky+17, @Texas+OT, Villanova+2, Tennessee+11, @Marquette+8, Georgetown+8, @Cincinnati+8, =Georgetown+17, =Pittsburgh+2, =Syracuse+OT, =Louisville+3, =Bucknell+29, =Cincinnati+11
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (2): =Kentucky+17, @Marquette+8
• Losses to tournament teams (9): @Pittsburgh-15, @Notre Dame-3, Louisville-OT, Syracuse-8, @St. John's-17, @Louisville-13, Marquette-OT, @West Virginia-9, Notre Dame-3
• Other losses (0):none

Key Info: When Connecticut completed its sweep of 5 games in 5 days to win the Big East tournament, some asked the question: Was this harder than winning the NCAA tournament? It's a fair question, too. UConn beat Depaul, Georgetown, Pitt, Syracuse, and Louisville; the last four got a 6, 1, 3, and 4 seed, so if we give DePaul a 14, that's the path a 3-seed might take winning in the Round of 64, 32, Sweet Sixteen, Elite Eight, and Final Four. So UConn essentially made it to the NCAA finals in 5 days.

Much of the credit can go to Kemba Walker, a Player of the Year candidate who stepped it up big in the conference tournament, averaging 26 points per game over the stretch. How far UConn goes is largely up to him; it's dangerous for a team but also rewarding to rely on one star player so much, but the Huskies have other talent obviously. It's just that Walker's star shines so much brighter you might not see them. Walker led with 18 against Bucknell and 33 against Cincinnati.

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Game Analysis: San Diego State is playing quite close to home while UConn is traveling across the country to Anaheim. Whether we give home court advantage to the Aztecs affects our basic estimate of the game. It might make most sense to give partial home court advantage in this situation.

There's also the issue of which performances to emphasize. For the full season, San Diego State rates higher, but UConn's recent games—the Big East tournament run and two NCAA wins—are their best of the season.

Vegas Line:

Connecticut by  1

Power rating spread

                   w/HC   w/o HC
San Diego State by  5.3   by 1.8
 

% Chance to win

                   w/HC   w/o HC
San Diego State:    66%   55% 
Connecticut:        34%   45%

Most sportsbooks take the Huskies over the Aztecs by a point, but there are some favoring San Diego State, too, so it's seen to be a very close game. It more closely matches our power rating estimate without assigning any home court advantage for SDSU. But the more important consideration is how each team has been playing lately.

Both San Diego State and UConn have been playing great during a 7-game winning streak, with UConn the #2 team in the country and SDSU the #4. Connecticut comes out ahead by 2.1 points, but it that negated by partial home court advantage for the Aztecs?

Bottom line: A tough game to pick due to the location and the fact that both teams are playing lights out. Since I can't come up with a clear idea of how much the location is worth, it's a draw, i.e. another overtime game for San Diego State.

UConn has been better during the tournament itself. The Aztecs' strong defense might be able to contain UConn's offense for 40 minutes, but I think Kemba Walker will take over in the overtime period.

Final prediction: Connecticut 76, San Diego State 69 OT