2011 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (10) Florida State vs. (11) VCU

Florida State Seminoles
Seed: 10
Record: 23-10
Conference: ACC

vs.

Virginia Commonwealth Rams
Seed: 11
Record: 26-11
Conference: Colonial Athletic

Date: Friday, March 25
Time: 9:57 pm Eastern
Location: San Antonio, TX 
Region: Southwest

 

Two of the hottest teams in the tournament are Florida State and Virginia Commonwealth, who are part of the first ever 10 vs. 11 seed matchup.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Florida State                      Virginia Commonwealth

Power Ratings

Strength:      #34 (#13 of 16)     Strength:      #75 (#16 of 16)
Neutral court: #31                 Neutral court: #71
Injuries Adj:  #30                 Injuries Adj:  #73

Tempo-free:    #38                 Tempo-free:    #69
Offense:       #141                Offense:       #48
Defense:       #1                  Defense:       #111

Special Analyses

2nd half of season: #27            2nd half of season: #63
Last 6 games:       #16            Last 6 games:       #8 Consistency:        #30            Consistency:        #298 

 

Season overview: Florida State (23-11)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (4): Clemson+6, Duke+5, =Texas A&M+7, @Notre Dame+14
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (1): Duke+5
  
• Losses to tournament teams (6): Florida-4, Ohio St.-14, =Butler-3, @Clemson-18, @North Carolina-20, North Carolina-2
• Other losses (2): @Auburn-5, @Virginia Tech-12, @Maryland-16, =Virginia Tech-1

Key Info: FSU played their best game in beating Notre Dame on a hardly-neutral court; it topped their win over Duke, which came at home.

Chris Singleton is the team's only double-digit scorer, and he was out for the last six games of the season. Surprisingly they played quite well despite his absence. Maybe it's because offense isn't that important to FSU; now the #1 defensive team in the country and #141 offensive team, losing a top scorer isn't a death sentence. They did, however, lose three of the six games without him, and in two of them, a 3-point basket would have been the difference. Singleton returned for the Texas A&M game, but he played just 16 minutes and scored 5 points; against the Irish he played 10 minutes and didn't score. Teammates are picking up the slack on offense and defense is getting the job done.

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Season overview: Virginia Commonwealth (26-11)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (7): =UCLA+4, Wofford+9, @Old Dominion+9, George Mason+16, =Southern California+13, =Georgetown+18, @Purdue+18
  
• Losses to tournament teams (6): =Tennessee-5, @Richmond-12, @UAB-3, Old Dominion-11, George Mason-20, Old Dominion-5
• Other losses (5): @South Florida-OT, @Georgia St.-10, @Northeastern-11, @Drexel-4, James Madison-3

Key Info: VCU also manhandled a high seed on a not-so-neutral court, beating Purdue 94-76, for their best performance of the year. The prior game, against Georgetown, is not their 2nd best effort, and in all, four of their five top games are in the last five games.

The Rams hit their stride in the middle of the season, building up a good case for the CAA to have three selections, only to see that argument crumble by the season's end as they lost 6 of their last 11 games. Still, they'd achieved enough goodwill to be one of the last four in. On offense four Rams average double figures; Jamie Skeen had 16 against USC and Joey Rodriguez had 17 against the Hoyas. Six players were in double figures against Purdue, with Rodriguez dishing out 11 assists.

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Game Analysis: 10-seed vs. 11-seed is uncharted territory in the NCAA tournament. There shouldn't be all that much difference between these teams, but remember VCU is a borderline 11/12, since they had to play-in (there were 5 11-seeds).

For the full season, FSU has a much better track record. They average out to the top defense in the country, while VCU's offense is good (#48) but not great. The Rams catch a break on defense, which is normally their weakness (#111) as Florida State's offense isn't very good (#141). If they pressure FSU and it works, they might get opportunities on offense that FSU's D normally wouldn't yield.

Vegas Line:

Florida St. by  4

Power rating spread

Florida St. by  5.3 

% Chance to win

FSU:   68% 
VCU:   32% 

The oddsmakers agree with our power rating, and the game-comparison system heavily favors the Seminoles. The question is, how much is the full season relevant? VCU is playing by far their best of the year, and FSU just had their best game, too.

VCU's surge seems more reliable than Florida State's, since it has covered several games now. Is that enough to override a full season's worth of games?

Bottom line: Last preview for VCU I said I wasn't convinced. USC had a distracting issue with their coach; Georgetown had Chris Wright back at less than 100%. Even Purdue was missing a key reserve. But I said that if they could beat the Boilermakers, I'd have to consider the Rams for real. And they didn't just edge Purdue; they pulled ahead in the first half and made it worse during the 2nd half.

Though neither team is one of the best in the country, they're both playing like it right now. FSU is #16 in recent play, showing that they belong in the Sweet Sixteen, but VCU is #8, meaning they should be the team to advance to the Elite Eight.

Final prediction:  Virginia Commonwealth 67, Florida State 64