2011 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (1) Duke vs. (5) Arizona

Duke Blue Devils
Seed: 1
Record: 32-4
Conference: ACC

vs.

Arizona Wildcats
Seed: 5
Record: 29-7
Conference: Pac-10

Date: Thursday, March 24
Time: 9:45 pm Eastern
Location: Anaheim, CA 
Region: West

 

Unlike UNC and Washington, both Duke and Michigan dominated their first round games in Charlotte. With the "Fab Five" documentary playing on ESPN, this matchup's historical significance will be noted, with a young Michigan team taking on a (relative to these time) veteran Duke squad 19 years later.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Duke                               Arizona

Power Ratings

Strength:      #2 (#2 of 16)       Strength:      #20 (#10 of 16)
Neutral court: #2                  Neutral court: #21
Injuries Adj:  #1                  Injuries Adj:  #20

Tempo-free:    #2                  Tempo-free:    #20
Offense:       #4                  Offense:       #13
Defense:       #3                  Defense:       #57

Special Analyses

2nd half of season: #3             2nd half of season: #36
Last 6 games:       #4             Last 6 games:       #40 Consistency:        #128           Consistency:        #135 

 

Season overview: Duke (32-4)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (12): Princeton+37, =Marquette+5, @Kansas St.+14, Michigan St.+5, =Butler+12, UAB+21, North Carolina+6, Temple+17, Clemson+11, =North Carolina+17, Hampton+42, Michigan+2
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (4): =Marquette+5, =Butler+12, North Carolina+6, =North Carolina+17,
  
• Losses to tournament teams (3): @Florida St.-5, @St. John's-15, @North Carolina-14
• Other losses (1): @Virginia Tech-4

Key Info: Nolan Smith is a player of the year candidate, averaging 21.3 points per game, 5.2 assists, and nearly 5 rebounds. Kyle Singler is of course one of college ball's top players; he adds 17.1 with 7 rebounds. But the one they missed most of the season is Kyrie Irving. Irving played only 8 games, averaging 17.4 points and 5 assists before injuring his toe.

If not their best player, Duke was certainly better with him. Not that they're terrible without him; they went 22-4 since then and won the ACC tournament, nabbing a top seed in the Big Dance. With him, however, they rate as the best team in the country. Irving scored 16 points in his return as Duke dominated Hampton and added 11 (9 on free throws) against Michigan while Nolan led with 24.

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Season overview: Arizona (29-7)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (6): Northern Colorado+23, UCLA+11, Southern California+9, Washington+1, @Southern California+5, =Memphis+2, =Texas+1
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (0): none
  
• Losses to tournament teams (6): =Kansas-8, @Brigham Young-22, @Washington-17, @Southern California-8, @UCLA-22, =Washington-OT
• Other losses (1): @Oregon St.-1

Key Info: For much of the year Arizona didn't get any respect, even as they were cruising through the Pac-10 schedule. Part of that was that their non-conference schedule was easy, and part of it was because their conference schedule was easy, too, given that the Pac-10 wasn't at its best this season; note that Arizona hasn't defeated any Sweet Sixteen teams. But the Wildcats finally won over the naysayers and climbed the polls and secured a high seed in the tournament.

The team has bounced back well from losses, most of the time, and they bounced back nicely the latest time by winning two NCAA tournament games. The Wildcats' star is forward Derrick Williams, a sophomore who averages 19.1 points and 8.1 rebounds, and who could be a breakout star in the tournament. He backed up this prediction of ours nicely against Memphis, where his last-second block saved the game for the Wildcats, and against Texas he had 17 points and 9 rebounds. He'll be on center-stage against Duke.

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Game Analysis: Arizona had one of the biggest wins of their season in beating Texas, while Duke struggled to put away 8-seed Michigan.

Now the Blue Devils will have to contend with Derrick Williams, who should give their inside players some trouble. But the Wildcats will have their hands full on defense, even moreso than the Blue Devils.

One issue is home court advantage: does Arizona get any? They're playing relatively close to home, but not in-state; meanwhile Duke is coming from 2,000 miles away.

Vegas Line:

Duke by  9

Power rating spread

Duke by  9  ; w/home court: Duke by 5.6

% Chance to win

Duke:      76%  w/hc 66%
Arizona:   24%       34%

Both Vegas and our basic, full-year power rating give it to Duke by 9 points. Looks like they don't consider home court an issue. If granted, it would be partial, perhaps a point or 1.5 points.

Duke's play with Irving back has, for the average of two games at least, looked more like their play without him for the previous 26 games rather than with him for the 1st eight. Using the Injury Adjustment, Duke would be favored by around 13. Using the non-Irving numbers, Duke wins by 8.

Bottom line: Duke's play may or may not have stepped up with Irving, so we can either use Duke's overall average and give Arizona a point for closer-to-home court, or use the non-Irving numbers, either way, Duke by 8.

Final prediction: Duke 83, Arizona 75