Nevada Las Vegas Runnin' Rebels
Seed: 8
Record: 24-8
Conference: Mountain West
vs.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Seed: 9
Record: 19-13
Conference: Big Ten
Date: Friday, March 18
Time: 9:20 pm Eastern
Location: Tulsa, OK
Region: Southwest
The Rebels will run, the Illini will fight, and a toss-up 8 vs. 9 seed will advance to face top seed Kansas.
Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics
Nevada Las Vegas Illinois
Power Ratings
Strength: #21 (#21 of 68) Strength: #17 (#17 of 68)
Neutral court: #19 Neutral court: #18
Injuries Adj: #22 Injuries Adj: #16
Tempo-free: #21 Tempo-free: #18
Offense: #52 Offense: #32
Defense: #10 Defense: #21Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #40 2nd half of season: #27
Last 6 games: #22 Last 6 games: #34
Consistency: #169 Consistency: #66
Deep Run Potential: #21 Deep Run Potential: #12
Upset Potential: #26 Upset Potential: #29
- Wins vs. tournament teams (2): Wisconsin+3, @Kansas St.+4
- Losses to tournament teams (7): @Louisville-8, UC Santa Barbara-6, Brigham Young-12, @San Diego St.-6, @Brigham Young-14, San Diego St.-6, San Diego St.-2
- Other losses (1): Colorado St.-15
Key Info: UNLV is the "other" team in the Mountain West. Not the one with Jimmer; not the one that almost went undefeated; not the one that beat BYU twice. No, they're the one that lost to BYU twice, and San Diego State three times.
The bright side of that is, take away those five losses and UNLV is 24-3 against teams that aren't nearly impossible to beat. Another loss was to Louisville; very understandable. Add in wins over Wisconsin and Kansas State and the Rebels look pretty good.
Tre'Von Willis and Chase Stanback lead the team with just over 13 points per game each, and the team's defense is in the top ten. Coach Lon Kruger will be facing his old team when UNLV plays the Illini.
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Season overview: Illinois (19-13)
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): North Carolina+12, @Gonzaga+12, Oakland+11, Northern Colorado+10, Wisconsin+8, Michigan St.+9, Penn St.+17, Michigan+2
- Losses to tournament teams (10): =Texas-OT, =Missouri-11, @Penn St.-2, @Wisconsin-10, Ohio St.-5, Purdue-11, @Michigan St.-4, @Ohio St.-19, @Purdue-8, =Michigan-5
- Other losses (3): =Illinois Chicago-3, @Indiana-3, @Northwestern-1
Key Info: In some ways Illinois is the Marquette of the Big Ten. They've faced a total of 18 tournament foes, just one fewer than Marquette even though the conference has 4 fewer. Like the Eagles the Illini lost a lot of games while retaining high marks in power ratings. This wasn't really for losing close games, but for beating so many good opponents, many by double figures. Their consistency rating, unlike Marquette's, is high.
Which is surprising considering how erratic Illinois is shooting the ball. They hit 67% against Iowa and 71% against Northwestern, but a week later shot 30% at Wisconsin (whom they shot 56% against two weeks earlier). The Illini have played well in the Big Ten but haven't won two games in a row since January 6th.
Demetri McCamey is still one of the country's best guards, and the Illini have good inside play with Mike Davis and 7' 1" Mike Tisdale, so they can't be counted out. No one's paying any attention to Illinois right now, and there's always one "forgotten" team that makes a run. It would be surprising if it were Illinois, but stranger things have happened.
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Game Analysis: Illinois doesn't seem capable of winning two games in a row anymore. But this one would be #1, so that's beside the point. Both teams have beaten their share of good teams, but in both cases that happened before the conference season started. Since then, Illinois is 4-7 and UNLV 0-5 against tournament teams.
Surprisingly, all of the power rating numbers give Illinois a slight edge, despite their losing ways. They also get a high grade for consistency, #66. You can count on their performance being constant, and they'll win or lose based on how good their foe is. UNLV has had its ups and downs but for the last 13 games is very consistent, too.
Vegas Line:
UNLV by 2
Power rating spread
Illinois by 0.8
% Chance to win
UNLV: 47%
Illinois: 53%
The oddsmakers pick UNLV by a couple of points, while the power rating (as noted) goes to Illinois. The Illini also win the tempo-free numbers, and have a bigger advantage in the 2nd half of the season. UNLV did better over the last 6 games but over the last 13, a more representative sample where UNLV was very consistent, Illinois is again about a 1 point favorite.
Bottom line: I didn't pick Marquette because they kept losing, so why should I take Illinois? UNLV's defense is great, but Illinois' seniors—McCamey, Davis, and Tisdale—can be tough for anyone to guard. A lot was expected of this Illinois team, and this is their last chance to deliver.
Final prediction: Illinois 68, UNLV 67
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