Michigan Wolverines
Seed: 8
Record: 20-13
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
Tennessee Volunteers
Seed: 9
Record: 19-14
Conference: SEC
Date: Friday, March 18
Time: 12:40 pm Eastern
Location: Charlotte, NC
Region: West
These teams have 27 losses between them, similar to what a couple of play-in 16-seeds might have. But they also have a combined 16 wins over the tournament field.
Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics
Michigan Tennessee
Power Ratings
Strength: #43 (#38 of 68) Strength: #49 (#44 of 68)
Neutral court: #41 Neutral court: #43
Injuries Adj: #42 Injuries Adj: #45
Tempo-free: #42 Tempo-free: #52
Offense: #55 Offense: #73
Defense: #41 Defense: #43Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #30 2nd half of season: #46
Last 6 games: #20 Last 6 games: #61
Consistency: #55 Consistency: #194
Deep Run Potential: #31 Deep Run Potential: #48
Upset Potential: #53 Upset Potential: #47
- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): @Clemson+8, Oakland+18, Penn St.+7, @Michigan St.+4, @Penn St.+3, Michigan St.+7, =Illinois+5
- Losses to tournament teams (9): =Syracuse-3, Purdue-23, @Wisconsin-16, Kansas-OT, Ohio St.-4, @Ohio St.-9, @Illinois-2, Wisconsin-1, =Ohio St.-7
- Other losses (4): =Texas El Paso-9, @Indiana-19, @Northwestern-14, Minnesota-5
Key Info: The key to Michigan's season was overcoming a six-game slump that happened right in the middle. From that point on they've played at a consistently high level, win or lose, and it got them into the tournament at a very forgiving seed. The team had shown flashes of greatness before that. They nearly beat Syracuse, then in back to back games they took Kansas into overtime and lost to Ohio State by 4 points. After those losses they played their three worst games before recovering to win 9 of their last 13.
Darius Morris leads the team in scoring at 15.2, and Tim Hardaway, Jr.—one of the three "NBA sons" on the roster—is second averaging 13.9.
**************************************************************
Season overview: Tennessee (19-14)
- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): Belmont+9, =Virginia Commonwealth+5, =Villanova+10, @Pittsburgh+7, Belmont+1, Memphis+20, Vanderbilt+3, @Georgia+2, @Vanderbilt+9
- Losses to tournament teams (9): Oakland-7, Southern California-1, Florida-OT, @Connecticut-11, @Kentucky-12, @Florida-1, Georgia-6, Kentucky-6, =Florida-11
- Other losses (5): @Charlotte-1, College of Charleston-13, @Arkansas-3, Alabama-OT, Mississippi St.-1
Key Info: A typical Bruce Pearl Tennessee team, the Volunteers are up and down, beating a #1 seed (Pitt) one week and losing to a non-qualifier (Charlotte) the next. Playing 18 games against tourney teams in all, the Volunteers went 9-9, beating Belmont and Vanderbilt twice each while losing to 2-seed Florida three times.
Bruce Pearl's 8-game SEC suspension didn't seem to hurt the team, as they were already off their early peak that saw them at #1 in the RPI and in the AP top ten. Junior Scotty Hopson and freshman Tobias Harris handle the bulk of the scoring for the Volunteers.
**************************************************************
Game Analysis: Surprisingly, Tennessee registers as having about average inconsistency overall. In terms of winning and losing, they are all over the place, but their game performances have a range that's fairly normal. Michigan on the other hand has been very consistent, especially in their last 13 games.
Both teams have shown the ability to play with anyone; Tennessee beat a 1-seed, while Michigan almost beat two others. And they've both obviously shown that they can lose games. Tennessee is the more physical team and rebounds well, something that could give them an edge in this contest.
Vegas Line:
Tennessee by 2
Power rating spread
Michigan by 0.8
% Chance to win
Michigan: 56%
Tennessee: 44%
The sportsbooks like Tennessee, probably due to the physical matchups that could favor the Volunteers. On paper, the scores favor Michigan by 1 and in tempo-free comparisons, by 2 points. Since the game's played in the physical world and not on paper, the oddsmakers logically go with what they think will happen in the physical world, hence Tennessee is a slight favorite.
Bottom line: I'm looking at Michigan's last 13 games, and see a remarkable consistency. The Wolverines are probably going to play at that level one way or another. It's up to Tennessee to exceed that level of play if they want to win. Will they? Not if they play the way they did over the same stretch, or even any stretch since the beginning of the season, and that was quite a while ago.
Final prediction: Michigan 65, Tennessee 62
Comments