George Mason Patriots
Seed: 8
Record: 26-6
Conference: Colonial Athletic
vs.
Villanova Wildcats
Seed: 9
Record: 21-11
Conference: Big East
Date: Friday, March 18
Time: 2:10 pm Eastern
Location: Cleveland, OH
Region: East
George Mason's back in the tournament, but in the unfamilar role of the favorite this time.
Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics
George Mason Villanova
Power Ratings
Strength: #36 (#33 of 68) Strength: #24 (#24 of 68)
Neutral court: #36 Neutral court: #27
Injuries Adj: #36 Injuries Adj: #24
Tempo-free: #30 Tempo-free: #26
Offense: #31 Offense: #21
Defense: #46 Defense: #45Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #22 2nd half of season: #38
Last 6 games: #59 Last 6 games: #116
Consistency: #197 Consistency: #255
Deep Run Potential: #36 Deep Run Potential: #27
Upset Potential: #40 Upset Potential: #22
- Wins vs. tournament teams (2): Old Dominion+17, @Virginia Commonwealth+20
- Losses to tournament teams (3): =Wofford-OT, @Old Dominion-4, @Virginia Commonwealth-16
- Other losses (3): =North Carolina St.-13, @Dayton-6, @Hofstra-13
Key Info: George Mason really hit its stride in January and February. Like many teams that do, they couldn't quite maintain that level and dipped at the end, including a bad performance in a loss to VCU in the Colonial tournament.
While the Patriots would love to repeat their Final Four run of five years ago, they won't fly under anyone's radar this time around. They come in 26-6, which is only a bit better than their 2006 record of 23-7, but instead of an 11-seed they are an 8, meaning that they're favored, at least by seedings.
**************************************************************
Season overview: Villanova (21-11)
- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): Bucknell+16, Boston University+16, =UCLA+12, Temple+4, Cincinnati+11, Louisville+14, @Syracuse+11, Marquette+5, West Virginia+16
- Losses to tournament teams (8): =Tennessee-10, @Connecticut-2, Georgetown-3, Pittsburgh-3, Syracuse-5, St. John's-13, @Notre Dame-21, @Pittsburgh-10
- Other losses (3): @Providence-15, @Rutgers-1, =South Florida-1
Key Info: Some have speculated that Villanova only got a 9-seed because the committee, for the first time, wasn't overweighing a team's recent performance. But they've been de-emphasizing that for years, and teams with Villanova's profile—a blistering start and top 10 ranking, followed by a major collapse—have been getting similar seeds for years. Tennessee in 2001 followed the same path and got a 8-seed, as did last year's Texas Longhorns. Both lost their first round games, completing their falls from grace.
The Wildcats chance for redemption depends on the two Coreys, Fischer and Stokes, and fellow guard Maalik Wayns, all of whom average over 14 points per game. But forward Mouphtaou Yarou might miss the George Mason game with bruised ribs.
**************************************************************
Game Analysis: The key to this game is Villanova's psychology. They're playing terrible basketball lately when they've shown they are capable of playing great basketball. Will they turn it around for the tournament?
Vegas Line:
George Mason by 1
Power rating spread
Villanova by 2.1
% Chance to win
George Mason: 46%
Villanova: 54%
The oddsmakers say no. Or at least, probably not; 1 point isn't exactly a declaration of confidence. But they know that on paper these teams are close, and also that Villanova isn't what they used to be. The Strength Power Rating, which averages all games and can't see psychology, still gives it to the Wildcats by a couple of points, with 54% confidence in the 'Cats.
Bottom line: I don't share that confidence. I look at Villanova and I see Tennessee 2001 and Texas 2010, both of whom lost in their opening games. Tennessee lost 70-63 to 9-seed Charlotte, while Texas lost in overtime to Wake Forest (who wasn't playing great ball themselves). I expect Villanova to suffer the same fate.
Final prediction: George Mason 72, Villanova 66
Comments