Butler Bulldogs
Seed: 8
Record: 23-9
Conference: Horizon
vs.
Old Dominion Monarchs
Seed: 9
Record: 27-6
Conference: Colonial
Date: Thursday, March 17
Time: 12:40 pm Eastern
Location: Washington, DC
Region: Southeast
Two prominent mid-major programs clash on an early game in the proper First Round.
Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics
Butler Old Dominion
Power Ratings
Strength: #45 (#40 of 68) Strength: #64 (#49 of 68)
Neutral court: #47 Neutral court: #63
Tempo-free: #47 Tempo-free: #54
Offense: #34 Offense: #71
Defense: #76 Defense: #49Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #65 2nd half of season: #59
Last 6 games: #33 Last 6 games: #36
Injury adjustment: #41 Injury adjustment: #63
Consistency: #325 Consistency: #38
Deep Run Potential: #67 Deep Run Potential: #49
Upset Potential: #33 Upset Potential: #75
- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): =Florida St.+3
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @Louisville-15, =Duke-12, @Xavier-2
- Other losses (6): Evansville-OT, @Wisconsin Milwaukee-24, @Wright St.-5, Wisconsin Milwaukee-OT, @Valparaiso-OT, @Youngstown St.-2
Key Info: Looking at Butler's year, the early season had more peaks so it's easy to see why their 2nd half ranking is #65 to their overall #45. They picked up again at the end to rank 33rd over the last six games; will that last? Another interesting stat is their Consistency rank of #325; we doubt the Bulldogs will return to the title game this year, but if their variance is on the upside they could upset some better teams. Unfortunately that also means that they could be upset, and they are the higher seed in this game.
The team is clearly not as good as last year's model, mainly for the loss of Gordon Hayward, but Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack have been just as good as they were on the Bulldogs' NCAA runner-up squad. The experience of last year's run will be invaluable, too.
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Season overview: Old Dominion (27-6)
- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): =St. Peter's+7, =Clemson+1, =Xavier+9, Richmond+7, George Mason+4, @Virginia Commonwealth+11, @Virginia Commonwealth+5
- Losses to tournament teams (4): Georgetown-3, @Missouri-23, Virginia Commonwealth-9, @George Mason-17
- Other losses (2): @Delaware-8, @Drexel-5
Key Info: We know Old Dominion wasn't last year's NCAA runner-up, but how on earth did they get seeded below the Bulldogs? With 7 wins against the tournament field to Butler's 1, and only two non-field losses to Butler's 6, it's hard to make a case on résumé. They even beat Xavier while Butler lost to the Musketeers. The teams' conferences, the CAA and the Horizon, are perhaps both on the cusp of being mid-majors; normally they are 1-bid leagues but have high-profile teams at the top. This year the CAA had three bids, the Horizon just one, so if anything Butler's seeding is an unconscious nod to their performance last year.
Old Dominion plays consistently from one game to the next as their chart reflects. They're on a 9-game winning streak while playing their best this year, so they're a match for Butler if it holds up. They're a bit strong on defense than Butler, while the Bulldogs have the advantage in offensive efficiency. All five of the Monarchs' leading scorers are upperclassmen (four seniors), and Frank Hassell nearly averages a double-double (15.0 ppg, 9.4 rebounds).
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Game Analysis: This is a tough game to pick, as it should be, being an 8 vs. 9, which are about 50-50 historically (actually 9s win a slight majority). Butler played a lot better in the first half of the season; Old Dominion was slightly better in the 2nd half; and the two teams were about even during their conference tournament runs.
The teams' tempo-free numbers are closer than their raw Strength ratings, and when weighted toward more recent games the teams are again nearly indistinguishable, as seen in the Pomeroy ratings where Old Dominion is #52 and Butler #54.
Vegas Line:
Old Dominion by 2
Power rating spread
Butler by 2.3
% Chance to win
Butler: 55%
Old Dominion: 45%
Vegas likes the Monarchs by 2, our Strength Power Rating likes Butler by about the same. Again, that's the full-season figure; the 2nd half of the season numbers favor Old Dominion by about 2 1/2, and the most-recent-play is a tossup.
Bottom line: This game will come down to Butler's tournament experience vs. Old Dominion's senior leadership. Which doesn't make the outcome any clearer, but for now I'm going with the Monarchs (this may change before game time). They've beaten a slew of good teams while Butler is 1-3 against the field.
Final prediction: Old Dominion 70, Butler 68 OT
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