Texas A&M Aggies
Seed: 7
Record: 24-8
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
Florida State Seminoles
Seed: 10
Record: 21-10
Conference: ACC
Date: Friday, March 18
Time: 4:10 pm Eastern
Location: Chicago, IL
Region: Southwest
The Aggies and Seminoles meet in the middle—and up North—in the NCAA first round.
Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics
Texas A&M Florida St.
Power Ratings
Strength: #44 (#39 of 68) Strength: #39 (#36 of 68)
Neutral court: #46 Neutral court: #39
Injuries Adj: #40 Injuries Adj: #39
Tempo-free: #45 Tempo-free: #46
Offense: #54 Offense: #156
Defense: #44 Defense: #2Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #49 2nd half of season: #36
Last 6 games: #41 Last 6 games: #46
Consistency: #28 Consistency: #9
Deep Run Potential: #28 Deep Run Potential: #22
Upset Potential: #56 Upset Potential: #57
- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): =Temple+3, Washington+1, Missouri+OT, Kansas St.+8, =Missouri+15
- Losses to tournament teams (4): @Texas-21, Texas-20, @Kansas-13, =Texas-12
- Other losses (4): =Boston College-2, @Nebraska-9, Baylor-OT, @Baylor-7
Key Info: Texas A&M started off 16-1 but came back down to earth when the Big Twelve season started. Soon they were 4-4 in conference and just another good team nationally. They came back, had a decent year, and probably had their best game beating Missouri in the Big Tweleve tournament. But then they faced Texas for the third time. The first two times, home and away, were 20+ point blowouts. They lost the neutral court game, too.
Take away Texas and A&M had a great year. Like last season, the Aggies are a very consistent team; they normally play a solid but unspectacular game, with the occasional very good game. Forwards Khris Middleton and David Loubeau lead in scoring and both rebound well, too.
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Season overview: Florida State (21-11)
- Wins vs. tournament teams (2): Clemson+6, Duke+5
- Losses to tournament teams (6): Florida-4, Ohio St.-14, =Butler-3, @Clemson-18, @North Carolina-20, North Carolina-2
- Other losses (2): @Auburn-5, @Virginia Tech-12, @Maryland-16, =Virginia Tech-1
Key Info: FSU's chart could easily be interchanged for A&Ms. The Seminoles play roughly at the same level. Their average is a bit better than the Aggies', but they don't hit quite as high. The Duke win (game 17) was their peak, in terms of accomplishment and gameplay.
Chris Singleton is the team's only double-digit scorer, and he's been out for the last six games (7 counting the game during which he was hurt). Surprisingly they've played quite well, at #46 instead of #39, despite his absence. Maybe it's because offense isn't that important to FSU; as the #2 defensive team in the country and #156 offensive team, losing a top scorer isn't a death sentence. They did, however, lose three of the six games without him, and in two of them, a 3-point basket would have been the difference. Singleton is expected to return for the game, so those points may be moot.
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Game Analysis: These are two of the most consistent teams in the country (A&M is #28, FSU #8), so we should be able to look at their numbers and have a reasonable chance of that being close to what transpires. This is the theory, at least; March Madness has a way of turning those theories inside-out.
Clearly FSU lives by defense, where they rank #2 in the nation. Their offense, #156 in efficiency, is where they often die. The Aggies have a much better balance in efficiency, ranked 54th and 44th. With Chris Singleton back, the Seminoles' meager offense should get a boost, assuming he's healthy enough to be effective.
Vegas Line:
PICK
Power rating spread
Florida State by 0.8 (0.2 w/o Singleton)
% Chance to win
Texas A&M: 43%
Florida State: 57%
Vegas basically punts on this one, calling it too close to call. The Strength Power Rating gives it to FSU by a point, which falls to around 0 if Singleton can't play.
Bottom line: As we noted, FSU is #2 in the nation in defense. So they should cause trouble to teams bothered by tight defense. Who is #1 in the nation in defense? Texas—the team that handed A&M home, road, and neutral court defeats of 21, 20, and 12 points. The 'Noles offense isn't nearly as good as the Longhorns, so A&M can keep it close with their own defense, but we're going with FSU in the end.
Final prediction: Florida State 62, Texas A&M 59
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